Well it started in a promising way with new management (with strong links to MFT) taking over an old established and possibly underperforming company.
Then there were major staff and Board changes, a name change and dual listing on ASX and NZX....followed by rumours of moves into Hydrogen based truck transport.... followed by a cap raise and more rumours regarding moves into sea freight and trans-tasman shipping.
Then today came the news of a $13 million contract loss and withdrawal of Move's $54 Million FY23 forecast revenue. Glad I only placed MOV on my watch list and didn't invest in the hype.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MOV/402278/383284.pdf
This is no Mainfreight in my opinion. I'm surprised the share price is holding where it is. I understand the loss of the major contract is Iplex. Was common knowledge weeks ago so surprised it's taken this long to disclose.
Not a holder.
share price down 20% since that profit downgrade
methinks it'll fall quite a bit more
Good hire. Will it be enough? Maybe I'll put it back on my watch list.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/403869
Looks like some of the band are getting back together... iv got a small holding purely based on this.
Quote from: Ricky Bobby on Dec 14, 2022, 01:23 PMLooks like some of the band are getting back together... iv got a small holding purely based on this.
It seems there is some exciting potential that this new team is is motivated to achieve.
That said, I would exercise caution until we see the state of their next financials, particularly in light of the above mentioned contract loss.
Trans Tasman ships, hydrogen vehicles ...or whatever exciting things they are planning, don't come cheap and I suspect there will be a need for a cap raise (or two) before long.
MOV back on my watch-list but that's all for now.
I wish you well.
Struggling to stay on my watch list.....
This link to their detailed FY23 presentation reveals more than their optimistic news release. FY 24 not looking great either at this stage.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MOV/417319/401808.pdf
Yes EPS loss of 6cps against 3cps last year. Need to see some big contract wins and more importantly profit before I look at this. I find it interesting that CEO ex Mainfreight made the comment that customers want a "strong alternative" yet sales dropped.
For a transport play hard to beat quality with Mainfreight I reckon.
What did u guys think of the freightways result?
I don't hold any transport sector stocks. However with FRW I see declining EPS. Revenue growth primarily coming from Australia. Increased debt levels and gearing. TA also not looking good.
FRW is maybe a turn around story.... but not yet IMO.
I would prefer MFT if I was looking to invest in this sector.
Reading this thread and the latest announcements I am struggling to see the circuit breaker for Move. What do they need to do to make money? And mort importantly, make enough money to reward shareholders before the next big cycle of capex...?
I work with smaller road freight businesses who have a fraction of the sales but are genuinely profitable and cash flow positive. My BOTFP analysis suggests Move is barely making positive cashflows from freight operations (if at all) before deducting truck capex. With a cast of thousands (yes I am exaggerating) on the SMT, this feels like another MPG.
Another client spends a significant amount on road freight every workday with multiple truck / T&T pick ups per day. A miniscule % of that spend is with Move (being port -> site a few times per month) despite their supposedly extensive nationwide offering. They are not actively seeking any of the site->client business despite requests for quotes.
Move logistics makes more than the entire business. I reckon focus on that, get rid of freight, re-capitalise and lose the reliance on leases ($40m cost pa). Maybe keep the specialist and ocean services. But let others handle day to day freight given there are enough competitors already.
When I read the announcements from MFT and FRW I get what they are selling. I don't get that with Move.
Disclosure: curious
New CEO
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/436244
Their new CEO has his work cut out......
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/437062
- Group performance and results below aspirations; significant improvements being targeted in FY25 with new leadership and fast-tracked change programme
- Revenue down 13% to $301.7m as a result of lower market and customer activity
- Net loss after tax for the year of $(48.1)m , including pre-tax, non-trading adjustments of $19.7m
- Normalised EBITDA of $27.6m, and Normalised EBT of $(25.7)m
- Reduction in net operating cashflow (including rent and leases) to $(5.1)m