Can't believe we haven't a thread for this one yet? Must be a mistake?
Aaaannyway.... nice to start a thread with a profit upgrade..... Over $30 mill NPAT expected in FY23!
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/400347
Maybe the start of big things for a bigger reinvigorated thl
$30m plus this year is an eps of 20 cents .... post completion of takeover and further growth and all those synergies anything is possible
Maybe a $4 share price next year
$6.00 by end of 2024
Just goes to show.....
Miracles happen (and)
Every dog has its day.
Crikey, top of the leader board today. Holders must be ecstatic.
I heard the CEO Grant Webster on the Radio this morning. He expected business would be back to normal by about mid 2024. Australia is going well, US sales have slowed and NZ sales are around 50% of historical volumes.
Quote from: Left Field on Oct 12, 2022, 09:24 AMCan't believe we haven't a thread for this one yet? Must be a mistake?
Aaaannyway.... nice to start a thread with a profit upgrade..... Over $30 mill NPAT expected in FY23!
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/400347
The long-awaited merger between Apollo (ATL) and Tourism Holdings (NZX:THL), both Fund investments, was finally approved by competition regulators on both sides of the Tasman. The recreational vehicle operators buy, build, rent and sell vehicles in Australia, New Zealand, North America and Europe.
When the deal was first proposed in December 2021, it was optimistically assumed to complete by June 2022. Then competition authorities, New Zealand's NZCC and Australia's ACCC, raised some yellow flags. The companies are close competitors and the authorities worried that consumers would end up paying more.
To assuage these concerns, the companies offered to divest more than 70% of Apollo's Australian and NZ fleets to Jucy Rentals, a small competitor. Jucy was recently acquired by private equity player Next Capital and will take on the campervans, locations and the Star RV brand from Apollo. It will become a legitimate competitor to the combined group.
During the long deal period Apollo's Australia-heavy operations recovered faster than THL's NZ rental-heavy business. So Apollo shareholders were given a sweetener and will now own 27.5% of the combined group, up from the original 25% ownership.
The benefits of the merger remain significant for both parties. Synergies were estimated to be NZ$17-19m, about two-thirds of Apollo's stand-alone profitability. The combined group will be able to buy better, build their own inventory in Australia and NZ, rent more effectively across the world and sell better through company-owned networks.
Combined, these two stocks represent the largest investment in the portfolio and have seen some share price appreciation as the merger has become more likely and operational improvement has become clearer. There is still plenty of value on offer.
NZ Tourism sector should go from strength to strength with the low NZ $, making NZ an attractive destination for overseas visitors
Oct 18 (Reuters) - Apollo Tourism & Leisure Ltd (ATL) :
FY23 GUIDANCE UPDATE
RENTAL REVENUE EXCEEDED INTERNAL TARGETS IN Q1 FY23 IN EVERY REGION
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATING RECORD LEVEL OF UNDERLYING NET PROFIT AFTER TAX (ON STANDALONE BASIS) IN FY23 OF ABOVE A$20 MILLION
THL Off to the afternoon races today -hmmmm - probs driven by the Aussie market - sometimes takes them a bit longer to read documents 8)
Well done Crackity. I missed this one but kudos to you and best wishes with it.
I was a bit disappointed to find out that they have to sell 80% of the Apollo business to Jucy for competition purposes. It would have been a cracking business if they had been able to keep it all. Now have to ask what kind of revenue and profits will the 20% they get to keep will contribute.
Quote from: KW on Oct 27, 2022, 03:34 PMI was a bit disappointed to find out that they have to sell 80% of the Apollo business to Jucy for competition purposes. It would have been a cracking business if they had been able to keep it all. Now have to ask what kind of revenue and profits will the 20% they get to keep will contribute.
[/e
Oops my quoting went awry.....
Not quite that bad....
To address the ACCC's concerns, THL and Apollo subsequently offered a court-enforceable undertaking to divest 200 (around 80 per cent) of the four to six berth motorhomes in Apollo's Australian rental fleet and associated forward bookings to an ACCC approved purchaser.
Total rental fleet in Oz was 1050 according to the just released annual report
Arguably Next Capital got the best deal - bought Jucy out of receivership and adding 200 campervans from Apollo/THL as well. They smart peeps 8)
Dont worry, Jucy will probably be IPO'ing in 3,2, 1 .... ;D
The other stock to get three picks this year was Tourism Holdings, picked by Jarden, Craigs and Forsyth Barr.
In theory, it should be well placed to ride the back of a solid recovery for tourism in 2023.
"While it operates in an industry tied to the fortunes of the economic cycle, we see positive signs ahead," said Lister.
"It offers excellent exposure to the recovering travel sector, and should tourism keep improving as we expect, the company is well placed to capitalise on this. We also believe the Apollo merger is a positive for the business."
Jarden's Allbon said the merger between THL and Apollo Tourism & Leisure had created the world's largest recreational vehicles (RV) rentals business.
"THL is our preferred Covid recovery play, with a strong earnings outlook underpinned by pent-up tourism demand, merger synergies and a more manageable cost base (vs airlines) to underpin delivery," he said
Brokers' keen on THL in today's Herald picks. Of those three, only Forbar came out ahead on last years pick thou! I'm not so sure about this "pent up tourism demand" either. Wonder what underpins that assumption? The rapid rises in the cost of living would be a counterweight anyway.
From memory THL was in a bit of trouble pre covid with their new software system that cost a lot and don't know if it ever got going... tempted to buy again, but not sure if the times right. A bit of a gamble, but one that could pay off!
Quote from: Hectorplains on Dec 26, 2022, 10:57 AMThe other stock to get three picks this year was Tourism Holdings, picked by Jarden, Craigs and Forsyth Barr.
In theory, it should be well placed to ride the back of a solid recovery for tourism in 2023.
"While it operates in an industry tied to the fortunes of the economic cycle, we see positive signs ahead," said Lister.
"It offers excellent exposure to the recovering travel sector, and should tourism keep improving as we expect, the company is well placed to capitalise on this. We also believe the Apollo merger is a positive for the business."
Jarden's Allbon said the merger between THL and Apollo Tourism & Leisure had created the world's largest recreational vehicles (RV) rentals business.
"THL is our preferred Covid recovery play, with a strong earnings outlook underpinned by pent-up tourism demand, merger synergies and a more manageable cost base (vs airlines) to underpin delivery," he said
Brokers' keen on THL in today's Herald picks. Of those three, only Forbar came out ahead on last years pick thou! I'm not so sure about this "pent up tourism demand" either. Wonder what underpins that assumption? The rapid rises in the cost of living would be a counterweight anyway.
I agree, I think that due to NZs late opening of the borders any overseas visitors "pent up demand" probably went elsewhere
Would you say NZ was just to far away and the world thought it was the Hobbit kingdom....
is there the back packer staff to even cope with demand if it arived...
a case of BYO...
A GOVT concerned with other things....
and do certain demographics not actually want them here anyway..
THL PROVIDES PRO FORMA UNDERLYING FY23 GUIDANCE
thl is nearing completion of its first set of half year results following its merger with Apollo Tourism & Leisure Ltd (ATL) and with that visibility, has been assessing expectations for the full year. As a result , thl now expects an improved underlying net profit after tax (NPAT) for FY23.
Market likes todays announcement - up 5% so far
MCK should report Friday - expecting improvement from them too
And AIR still scalping the punters 8) woo hoo ( as a shareholder )
We have debt facilities available to fund the re-fleet
The Board and management are conscious of maintaining an appropriate net debt to EBITDA ratio throughout the regrowth programme
o We do not expect to require additional equity to undertake the fleet regrowth programme
o Fleet growth will be partly funded by retained earnings and proceeds from the sale of existing fleet
o thl's dividend policy during the fleet regrowth programme will recognise the need to maintain ....
Hmmmm - so long and thanks for all the fish THL
Well done mate, you'll be dining well for quite some time on the big kingfish you caught there.
Suppose BusinessDesk editors not in happy mood today with a headline like this
Tourism Holdings notes potential speedbump in earnings forecast
Tourism Holdings predicts it will still report a net profit of at least $48 million in the June year but sees a risk arising if vehicle sales take longer than expected.
Some global cruising going on ...
well if Tourism is not ramping up in NZ yet it is in Europe..
https://edition.cnn.com/travel/travel-europe-crazy-tourism-summer/index.html
Un real!!! Is this going to be the world of the future... are we talking Welcome to Floston Paradise.. the 5th element...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/07/14/biggest-royal-caribbean-cruise-ship-set-sail-january-2024/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9DtLUv5Hrc
Quote from: Waltzing on Jul 15, 2023, 10:20 AMUn real!!! Is this going to be the world of the future... are we talking Welcome to Floston Paradise.. the 5th element...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/07/14/biggest-royal-caribbean-cruise-ship-set-sail-january-2024/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9DtLUv5Hrc
What a gigantic floating Petri Dish ... but probably great as canary in the coal mine to indicate the next pandemic.
Dare I say it: "Small is Beautiful"?
yep stay away!!!
A good result in tough times.....
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/417232
• Statutory net profit after tax (NPAT) of $49.9M, an increase of $52M on the prior year
• A record underlying NPAT of $47.8M and pro forma underlying NPAT of $77.1M (which includes the impact of acquisition accounting)
• Pro forma underlying NPAT of $81.1M after removing the impact of acquisition accounting, which was not included in previous guidance of $75M+
• Historic merger with Apollo completed with successful initial integration
• Group Return on Funds Employed of 15.8%
• A final dividend of 15 cents per share (100% imputed, 25% franked), representing the full year dividend as no interim dividend was paid
• New thl dividend policy targets distribution of 40 – 60% of underlying NPAT
Bit of a slow downward trend here....
Speaking of crusing around... this looks like a real life ....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VDvfFIZQIuQ
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/saga-cruise-ship-hit-by-massive-storm-in-bay-of-biscay/WYJTEBBWINCVXI5GDM2YGNUJE4/
well one hopes the summer bring more tourists who have a better experiance than this one....
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/american-travel-blogger-dorit-liss-desperate-to-leave-new-zealand-after-vandals-smash-motorhome/TEZJHZO4JFCPDLYB5UECUPJLXI/
Some Belgium athletes in the local gymn this week and hopefully they enjoy there time here...
Stock still going side ways...
Good to see management's comment that this bolt on acquisition is expected to deliver 15% ROFE in year one. THL seem to demonstrate real focus on commercial disciplines that will create value as they continue to grow the business globally.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/425114 (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/425114)
Warning: Post not directly related to stock:
Tourism and small floating Towns....
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68118822
Quote from: Mos on Jan 25, 2024, 10:33 PMGood to see management's comment that this bolt on acquisition is expected to deliver 15% ROFE in year one. THL seem to demonstrate real focus on commercial disciplines that will create value as they continue to grow the business globally.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/425114 (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/425114)
Good to see ...but cynically investor relations practice guidelines say always include phrases like 'eps accretive' or similar like in thl's case 'deliver x% ROFE' when announcing acquisitions
Give punters the warm fuzzies eh
Nonetheless a good acquisition ....cements there place in South Australia
Was very busy at Taupo earlier this week. Never seen so many people at Huka falls. Plenty of campervans there. Sorry, no idea if THL is a good buy or not.
Are the camper vans going to be lining up next year as the tourists discover this paradise...
what about gisborne... https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/destinations/nz/gisborne/300446405/the-best-beaches-in-tairwhiti-gisborne
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/rotorua-daily-post/news/new-zealand-heralds-best-beach-competition-ohope-beach-voted-best-family-beach-for-the-third-year/QCSHBSQE25F4HJABYCQVHGTCJA/
If anyone wants another way to play the boomer campervan trend, have a look at CHL on the ASX.
Oh dear ...big profit downgrade coming ...not surprising ...one been on cards for a while now
Reasons for trading halt: THL requests this trading halt to allow it to finalise its updated expectations for FY24 earnings and to provide updated guidance to the market, which is likely to be materially lower than its existing guidance.
Quote from: winner (n) on May 02, 2024, 12:38 PMOh dear ...big profit downgrade coming ...not surprising ...one been on cards for a while now
Reasons for trading halt: THL requests this trading halt to allow it to finalise its updated expectations for FY24 earnings and to provide updated guidance to the market, which is likely to be materially lower than its existing guidance.
Hmm - given that they would have at current SP $2.85) a forward PE of 7.8 and a forward earnings CAGR of 11.5, (which would make it a Zulu company with a dream PEG of 0.68) ... am I wondering how much of this downgrade is already priced in.
Anyway, their earnings would need to drop a lot to make this share looking unattractive, but sure - who knows the future of tourism in NZ? Our current bunch of governing inepts is probably throwing our tourism sector together with our environment under the bus ... and they will even make sure that the victims pay the bus fare - so, who knows what the future will bring?
At Interim they said F24 npat would be about $75m (less than pro-forma underlying npat $81m in F23) and heading to $100m in F26
Wonder what 'materially lower than its existing guidance' means
You'd have to hope that it's no less than $60m ....being an eps of 27 cents. That would be less than 28 cents eps achieved in 2020 ($41m npat on less shares)
If they only make 27 cents this year you'd have to say the Apollo merger still got a long way to go to become truly accretive ......the old saying might be true "where did all the synergies go"
I need to update my thl file going back to 2006 (I think) ....truly a morbid satisfaction with a company with more disappointments than real successes .....performance wise as well as share price wise.
One conclusion I once came to was that thl profits and share price were inversely correlated to tourism activity
Be interesting tomorrow
Bloody hell! Why did I jump back in...
Trading halt is never a good sign... been drifting down for a good month now and this explains it.
Quote from: winner (n) on May 02, 2024, 02:55 PMAt Interim they said F24 npat would be about $75m (less than pro-forma underlying npat $81m in F23) and heading to $100m in F26
Wonder what 'materially lower than its existing guidance' means
You'd have to hope that it's no less than $60m ....being an eps of 27 cents. That would be less than 28 cents eps achieved in 2020 ($41m npat on less shares)
If they only make 27 cents this year you'd have to say the Apollo merger still got a long way to go to become truly accretive ......the old saying might be true "where did all the synergies go"
I need to update my thl file going back to 2006 (I think) ....truly a morbid satisfaction with a company with more disappointments than real successes .....performance wise as well as share price wise.
One conclusion I once came to was that thl profits and share price were inversely correlated to tourism activity
Be interesting tomorrow
Just checked - latest analyst consensus NPAT was $55m (35cents EPS), which is below the $60m you talk about.
So, lets hope they downgrade only from their earlier forecast and not from analysts expectations.
Not sure I can gauge their current business activity. Based on guts feeling, we used to have in the good old pre-Covid times more campervans on our roads, and all the vans which are now populating the neighbourhood as emergency housing (or rent out units) have been sold by THL & Co during Covid, so - not a money spinner these days.
Quote from: BlackPeter on May 02, 2024, 05:34 PMJust checked - latest analyst consensus NPAT was $55m (35cents EPS), which is below the $60m you talk about.
So, lets hope they downgrade only from their earlier forecast and not from analysts expectations.
Not sure I can gauge their current business activity. Based on guts feeling, we used to have in the good old pre-Covid times more campervans on our roads, and all the vans which are now populating the neighbourhood as emergency housing (or rent out units) have been sold by THL & Co during Covid, so - not a money spinner these days.
My Marketscreener shows F24 profit forecast as $75.28m or 34.53 cents per share
Then has just $100m in 2026 in line with thl target
ok winner they arnt goint gangbusters then?
No gangbuster stocks on the NZX then...
Inflation not likely to come down soon as apparently to many US have 30 year debt locked in for housing...
Not enough short term debt to move the inflation needle quickly...
Thl CFO resigned last October ....a guy comes back from parental leave and becomes acting CFO until new CFO ex Scott Tech starts July
Maybe Acting CFO Steve thinking it easier to look after kids than sort out whstbprobablyba bit of mess at thl ...but he may beca guy who likes challenges
Quote from: winner (n) on May 02, 2024, 06:30 PMMy Marketscreener shows F24 profit forecast as $75.28m or 34.53 cents per share
Then has just $100m in 2026 in line with thl target
Mea culpa - you are right. Must have missed at some stage to update the number of outstanding THL shares in my spreadsheet. Bl**dy CR's !
Today we'll hear if things aren't really too bad or if things are really bad
Updated an old chart to show the ups and downs of thl over the last 17 years. Took a guess at F25 eps at 27 cents
Be interesting to see where profits and share price go from here
IMG_5783.png
Oh dear ...F24 npat about $50m ....eps 23 cents less than I showed on that chart
Never mind goingbto double npat over next 2 years
Share price should double eh
Today it's BUY
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/THL/430552/417869.pdf
Smashed'em bro!!
$2.20 first trade, down to $2.00 now.
Ouchie!!
Quote from: winner (n) on May 06, 2024, 08:41 AMOh dear ...F24 npat about $50m ....eps 23 cents less than I showed on that chart
Never mind goingbto double npat over next 2 years
Share price should double eh
Today it's BUY
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/THL/430552/417869.pdf
Well, yes - 2024 and 2025 are a shocker - and sticking to the 2026 NPAT goal with the disclaimer of really optimistic assumptions and no write offs (which they say are likely) - hmm.
But then - if we assume they now achieve their reduced 2024 and 2025 targets and make in 2026 only 77m NPAT (vs. the 100m they "target"), they still look cheap at an SP of $2.
How many more downgrades do we expect - balance?
Quote from: winner (n) on May 06, 2024, 08:15 AMToday we'll hear if things aren't really too bad or if things are really bad
Updated an old chart to show the ups and downs of thl over the last 17 years. Took a guess at F25 eps at 27 cents
Be interesting to see where profits and share price go from here
IMG_5783.png
Thanks for that. I really appreciate your contributions on here. I got to thinking this morning. Bit surprised the average PE is 16 ? Where's the growth over the years, share price before today's announcement was the same as 2007, 17 years ago. WTF ?
Maybe this is just a pure cyclical tourism company and deserves a PE more appropriate to a pure cyclical, say 8-9 ?
What does today's announcement tell you about how weak 2H is and the prospects for FY25?
I really don't think most consumers are in a position to outlay serious money on a used campervan now...maybe some are, the cashed-up baby boomers but I don't see an uptick in people's inclination towards major capex items until at earliest, FY26.
Balance was right on the other channel this morning to say he's looking for an under $2 share price as a possible entry point but how much lower is appropriate given current headwinds?
Sorry mate, I have a lot more questions than answers with this one. Disc: No position and haven't held for many years.
Global Warming.
If the recent weather events become the new "normal" is NZ going to be as attractive, in the future, as a year-round tourist destination. Flooding, roads and bridges destroyed.
personally, I would factor this into the share price valuation.
Quote from: Bev on May 06, 2024, 01:00 PMGlobal Warming.
If the recent weather events become the new "normal" is NZ going to be as attractive, in the future, as a year-round tourist destination. Flooding, roads and bridges destroyed.
personally, I would factor this into the share price valuation.
True, but all these things are true for any tourist destination.
Have a look at South East Asia, currently suffering under a huge heat wave (but google as well your favourite SE destination together with "rubbish"), have a look at South America and google "Brazil flooding", and even in Europe are the adverse weather events on the rise.
So, yes - climate change will clearly impact on tourism, and might (will?) reduce it worldwide, but I suspect that NZ (and Australia) might be some of the lesser impacted on countries.
Mass tourism is more likely to be badly impacted (more and more countries fight back against mass tourism anyway), but the high value tourism is in my view likely to be more resistant. Not so sure about the UK and the US though, and THL is renting out campervans over there as well.
Its called a cliff...
Results out.... $51.8 m NPAT and scrapping their $100 NPAT goal by FY26 as 'unrealistic.'
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/436867
Summary:
•Underlying net profit after tax of $51.8M, within guidance range
•Statutory net profit after tax of $39.4M due to $12.4M impairment of goodwill attributable to UK/Ireland divisions
•Record EBIT results from New Zealand Rentals & Sales, Action Manufacturing and New Zealand Tourism divisions
•Final FY24 dividend of 5 cents per share, 100% imputed and 0% franked, providing a full year FY24 dividend of 9.5 cents per share
•Continued growth in rental fleet to 7,921 vehicles, up 10%
•Group Return on Funds Employed of 10.0%
•Despite operating conditions for the coming period being uncertain, we expect an increase in underlying NPAT in FY25 compared to FY24
•Prevailing economic conditions make it unrealistic to achieve $100M net profit after tax goal by FY26, however we remain steadfast in our belief that we have the necessary components and will advance towards our goal as tourism rebounds and general economic conditions improve
Quote from: Left Field on Aug 27, 2024, 08:37 AMResults out.... $51.8 m NPAT and scrapping their $100 NPAT goal by FY26 as 'unrealistic.'
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/436867
Summary:
•Underlying net profit after tax of $51.8M, within guidance range
•Statutory net profit after tax of $39.4M due to $12.4M impairment of goodwill attributable to UK/Ireland divisions
•Record EBIT results from New Zealand Rentals & Sales, Action Manufacturing and New Zealand Tourism divisions
•Final FY24 dividend of 5 cents per share, 100% imputed and 0% franked, providing a full year FY24 dividend of 9.5 cents per share
•Continued growth in rental fleet to 7,921 vehicles, up 10%
•Group Return on Funds Employed of 10.0%
•Despite operating conditions for the coming period being uncertain, we expect an increase in underlying NPAT in FY25 compared to FY24
•Prevailing economic conditions make it unrealistic to achieve $100M net profit after tax goal by FY26, however we remain steadfast in our belief that we have the necessary components and will advance towards our goal as tourism rebounds and general economic conditions improve
Another amazing example how to run down a great NZ company - go overseas into unknown terrain and get yourself a bloody nose!
Lousy returns in North America and UK/Ireland pulling down the whole company.
Why do Kiwi entrepreneurs who do well always need to go overseas to crush their earnings?
Not that we would have needed another example for this fallacy, but hey - here we go.
Quote from: BlackPeter on Aug 27, 2024, 12:11 PMAnother amazing example how to run down a great NZ company - go overseas into unknown terrain and get yourself a bloody nose!
Lousy returns in North America and UK/Ireland pulling down the whole company.
Why do Kiwi entrepreneurs who do well always need to go overseas to crush their earnings?
Not that we would have needed another example for this fallacy, but hey - here we go.
He probably never thought punters would go cruising instead of hiring campervans
Better acquire a cruise company and diversify
"Everybody must go" = seriously, what can go wrong if our frugal government invests $500k into this amazing catchphrase?
But no doubt - Ossies will understand the spirit and come in droves. Hope all the THL campers are oiled and well maintained, just waiting for them to hit our shores.
Just looking at the chart ...
THL 5 yrs.jpg
Well, yes its a cyclical stock, SP currently in the lower quadrants and Bolling bands start to narrow down - so, what could possibly go wrong?
Ah yes, and if they do go wrong (like in UK and US) - maybe they could sell the surplus campervans into the areas bombed out by Russia and Israel?
Results not looking auspicious
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/447298
-Underlying net profit after tax of $26.5M, down 33%.(1)
-Statutory net profit after tax of $25.3M, down 36%.
-Group Return on Funds Employed (trailing 12 months) of 8.1%.
-Underlying EBITDA of $113.3M, down 5%.(1)
-Continued recovery in international tourism underpins rental fleet growth of 11% and rental revenue growth of 8%.
-Ongoing vehicle sales challenges result in 4% decrease in sale of goods revenue and lower margins for ex-rental and retail RV sales.
-Interim FY25 dividend of 2.5 cents per share, 100% imputed and 0% franked.
Quote from: Left Field on Feb 25, 2025, 09:36 AM-Ongoing vehicle sales challenges result in 4% decrease in sale of goods revenue and lower margins for ex-rental and retail RV sales.
Had a good healthy debate about this one with Rawz at the recent stock talk get-together in December. My main argument was that the market for high value discretionary spend items like campervans and boats is very, very soft and likely to remain that way for the foreseeable future. The other insight an accountant friend of mine who managed one of the largest privately owned rental car firms for many years was this. It's not what you buy rental assets for that matters when it comes to making money, it's what you can sell them for that really counts. Glad I stayed away from this one.
Quote from: Basil on Feb 25, 2025, 10:09 AMHad a good healthy debate about this one with Rawz at the recent stock talk get-together in December. My main argument was that the market for high value discretionary spend items like campervans and boats is very, very soft and likely to remain that way for the foreseeable future. The other insight an accountant friend of mine who managed one of the largest privately owned rental car firms for many years was this. It's not what you buy rental assets for that matters when it comes to making money, it's what you can sell them for that really counts. Glad I stayed away from this one.
Yes mate not looking good. No surprises about the historic numbers. What I was interested in was the outlook statement and its clear as day that its still very tough out there in all markets with margins on the re-sales under pressure.
I did disclose on the other place that I sold THL and moved the funds to SEK. Main reason was I thought SEK was in a more positive news cycle. THL time will come and I think everyone should have it on the watchlist as there will be a bag or two in it when the secondary RV market returns and this cyclical makes its run back up.
THL did note a few competitor and manufacture liquidations/consolidations in the report. Everyone knows those that survive the bottom of the cycle will thrive on the way back up.
The company has $864m in PP&E which is mainly the rental fleet. Then $237m inventories which is mainly the ex rentals held for sale. Gives solid asset backing of $1.1b vs net debt of $478m. Difference being $622m vs market cap of $409m
Well, looks like I was right about the outbreak out of the Bollinger channel (#55) - just got the direction wrong. Hey - these things happen, and statistically it is 40% down and 60% up.
Still - there are opportunities ahead - interesting to see the following comment in the announcement:
Quote-opportunities in North America for non-tourism bookings related to the LA fires and ongoing discussions concerning larger wholesale vehicle sales opportunities;
I suppose sales and rental opportunities courtesy to global warming will be more and more. Maybe the market turns out to be not that soft, as some of the posters here expect?
But yes, who would hope for further catastrophes anyway? The do say, that hope is not an investment strategy, don't they?
USA market revenue downturn up to 50% hurting THL
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/450270
....As widely reported in media, there has also been a sharp drop in interest for inbound travel to the USA. thl has experienced a substantial slowdown in new bookings, and elevated cancellations of bookings for the USA rentals high season. Booking intakes for this market from key European countries in the past week have been approximately 40 to 50% down on last year's levels.
.......As a result, thl believes that underlying NPAT in FY25 will be significantly below the current analyst consensus of $45.2M.....
People are avoiding the US. Serious ramifications for US tourism. Not a surprise given Trumps actions.
https://www.travelandtourworld.com/news/article/us-tourism-plunges-into-travel-meltdown-as-new-trump-era-policies-trigger-seventy-percent-drop-from-canada-and-seventeen-percent-from-europe-what-you-need-to-know/
Quote from: Shareguy on Apr 17, 2025, 10:38 AMPeople are avoiding the US. Serious ramifications for US tourism. Not a surprise given Trumps actions.
https://www.travelandtourworld.com/news/article/us-tourism-plunges-into-travel-meltdown-as-new-trump-era-policies-trigger-seventy-percent-drop-from-canada-and-seventeen-percent-from-europe-what-you-need-to-know/
Must be the reduction in Fentanyl traffickers across the Canadian border. Should pick up soon, as they start smuggling Jack Daniels instead.
Interesting what they said about demand and margins on used campervans worldwide. Clearly shows how this has affected consumer confidence everywhere.
Quote from: KW on Apr 17, 2025, 12:00 PMMust be the reduction in Fentanyl traffickers across the Canadian border. Should pick up soon, as they start smuggling Jack Daniels instead.
Hardly. Its just that the fasists are already in the US, and no decent human being wants to travel there anymore.
US now is like Germany used to be after Hitlers Machtübernahme in the 1930íes: The laws are not anymore respected, and the Führer / POTUS runs the party, the courts and the parliament. People are imprisoned without due process and without a chance to get their day in court.
You might love it there, you should try, but most people prefer to have their holidays in safer places.
Current SP $1.46/
Takeover offer received at $2.30.. Non binding and a few hurdles to go though yet
Quote from: Minimoke on Jun 16, 2025, 08:34 AMCurrent SP $1.46/
Takeover offer received at $2.30.. Non binding and a few hurdles to go though yet
Interesting ... and looks like good timing for a T/A after chump managed to bring the share price with his brainless policies into the basement. Anybody buying the company now just needs to wait for the looser chump to fade away. If the banana republic of America subsequently stops kicking its friends and re-establishes a law based system, than tourism might start to flourish again.
Price offer looks ok-ish as well - I would rate THL currently more like $2.50 ... 2.60, but hey, $2.30 is not that far from that and obviously - industries like tourism carry in todays world huge risks which need to be priced in as well. Clearly a much more credible offer compared to the MCK lowball game we just went through.
Quote from: BlackPeter on Jun 16, 2025, 10:20 AMcompared to the MCK lowball game we just went through.
Hope CDL hotels are taking notes about the premium to VWAP being paid here. That's what MCK shareholders need to see. ACC are kingmaker there and just FYI, Crackity and I are in the communication loop with him and have sent our detailed thoughts on the matter.
On the THL bid, I think in the current very heightened geopolitical risk environment, that's a very bold bid which I would be taking with both hands, (actually selling on market today if I was a shareholder)..
Quote from: Basil on Jun 16, 2025, 10:46 AMHope CDL hotels are taking notes about the premium to VWAP being paid here. That's what MCK shareholders need to see. ACC are kingmaker there and just FYI, Crackity and I are in the communication loop with him and have sent our detailed thoughts on the matter.
On the THL bid, I think in the current very heightened geopolitical risk environment, that's a very bold bid which I would be taking with both hands, (actually selling on market today if I was a shareholder)..
Agree re THL which has been a serial under deliverer over the past few years. Sold at 2.30.
Methinks the whole tourism industry is in decline. Cost of living concerns, clamp down on tourists in places like Venice etc, restrictions on AirBnB, price gouging from tourism operators in places like Las Vegas, end of post-covid "revenge travel" ....
Flight Centre down today.
Flight Centre was dumped, down 8.9 per cent, as it said it would just miss the bottom end of guidance. The travel retailer had already revised that guidance lower in February, blaming growing Middle East tensions, difficult travel conditions in the United States and extra costs in Asia.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/companies/tourism/tourism-holdings-rejects-230-per-share-takeover-bid-as-undervalued/57GD7KJAXRHLLK4NUXPT7QSU3U/ paywalled
Board rejects $2.30 takeover offer and thinks they can grow profit massively in the years ahead.
Yes we're probably at the bottom of the cycle but their profit growth target looks very ambitious to me.
Quote from: Basil on Aug 04, 2025, 10:54 AMhttps://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/companies/tourism/tourism-holdings-rejects-230-per-share-takeover-bid-as-undervalued/57GD7KJAXRHLLK4NUXPT7QSU3U/ paywalled
Board rejects $2.30 takeover offer and thinks they can grow profit massively in the years ahead.
Yes we're probably at the bottom of the cycle but their profit growth target looks very ambitious to me.
Yes, THL have no track record of hitting their previous aim high targets, so hard to believe this time it is different.
Impressive the price barely moved. Maybe there was almost no arbs, or someone thinks BGH will back back for round 2 with an improved bid.
Quote from: Mos on Aug 04, 2025, 07:07 PMYes, THL have no track record of hitting their previous aim high targets, so hard to believe this time it is different.
What do you think will happen next ? Hostile takeover at $2.50 maybe ?
Hard to know. I would not be surprised by no further bids given the Board response. Risk that the Board continues to have a rose tinted view on likely future performance - hard to fathom where this optimism comes from given actual performance since the merger. Can't see the USA operation turning around anytime soon and suspect camper van sales will continue to be soft in multiple markets. What are your thoughts?
Pretty much in line with your thoughts Mos but I'd probably choose the words "very weak and slow" to describe the used camper market. The board and management have no track record of meeting previous grandiose profit growth targets. They're trying to make the case this is a strong growth company. The evidence says its a cyclical no growth tourism company. Goodness me they were $1.30a couple of months back before corporate action started, the same price as they were 10 years ago. Where's the growth ?
I see from the announcement today that there are still on-going discussions... have added 6 months to the timeframe tho!
Boom! Takeover offer @ $3.10
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/473532
Holders should be happy!?
Quote from: Left Field on May 29, 2026, 10:53 AMBoom! Takeover offer @ $3.10
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/473532
Holders should be happy!?
Highly conditional proposal ... but sure, if it goes ahead its much better than yesterdays SP.
At the end it depends on the future development of flight shame and a lot of highly unpredictable global issues. Will the big pink monster baby making the US unvisitable go or fade away? What are the chances of WW3? What will be flying cost in the coming years?
Anyway - we planned recently a NZ holiday and considered as well to rent a campervan, but hey - the campervans cost so much more than taking a rental car and going into a good hotel instead ...
Looks like, they lost me as a shareholder (due to US monster baby) as well as a potential customer ... but hey, all the best to holders!
Quote from: BlackPeter on May 29, 2026, 11:44 AMAnyway - we planned recently a NZ holiday and considered as well to rent a campervan, but hey - the campervans cost so much more than taking a rental car and going into a good hotel instead ...
I held THL about 2015 when they had just expanded into the USA (THL had purchased El Monte RV's as I recall.)
Then we hired one of their USA RV's for a 1 month holiday. Big mistake. Both the RV and the service were terrible.
Sold my shares soon after and have never held since.