Deserves its own thread
Glassons Australia the start of the group. Over a couple of tough years they have performed remarkably well and been the saviour of the Group with F22 profit of $19m with the rest of the Group (mainly NZ) making only $6m
Glassons annual sales were $157m and over the last 5 years have grown at 26% pa - very impressive. And they are off to a flying start this year with Aud/Sep sales probably up 60% or more.
Importantly F22 saw them increase Gross Margin by 1.2% points to 60.9%
So selling heaps more and making greater margin on those sales - the way to go
Glassons AU increased their market share in a fast growing market as well. Their share of Australia Clothing retail sales is still less than 1% which highlights the opportunity for them in a market size of about $40m.
So the future looks bright for Glassons AU as the retail normalises and they should make $25m/$30m in F23.
The rest of the Group ,,, NZ ,,,, will probably do better in F23 as they recover from a bad F22. .... and in spite of that they remained profitable
So we could see HLG Group making record profits in F23 - somewhere near $35m and $40m not beyond the bounds of possibility.
No wonder they held the F23 dividend at 42 cents - with a strong balance sheet and good outlook giving them confidence to do that.
I'm looking forward to next update in December
Cool chart of Glassons AU sales below
00000glau.JPG
HLG always make a point of saying 'inventories are well controlled'
F22 stock turns came out at 4.9
Down a fraction from the 5.1 in 2019 (pre-covid)> Considering all the supply chain disruptions etc etc over the last 2 years the F22 number was pretty good
Did you know that for every $ of stock they generate $6.60 of margin over the year ....amazing eh an that even better than what guru Rod can achieve
Must admit, HLG have travelled through this pandemic pretty well in no small part due to the caliber of their management. Interestingly we're seeing a real dichotomy between how Australian women are embracing Glassons as a fairly new brand to them and how N.Z. women are responding to it arguably being quite a mature brand here, (notwithstanding the same product offering).
The size of the market in Au is roughly six times here so Glassons as a brand is just scratching the surface of market penetration in Australia. Very impressive growth in Australia in the face of serious headwinds last year and you can't argue with their 5 year CAGR there which is also deeply impressive.
Watching the TA closely....I think I kind of regret selling my modest stake recently before the annual result. (Blaming it on Covid brain fog)
28% of all sales now online - very impressive indeed, surely this is best of retail breed ?
QuoteFuture Outlook
The first eight weeks of the new financial year have seen Group sales improve
by +68.49% on the prior year.
WOW - Off to a roaring start to FY23.
Have to say I am very impressed they are paying 42 cps in divvies on trough year earnings. Classic dividend hounds stock. Their track record of dividends even in the most difficult of all conditions like Covid years and the GFC is second to none.
Trades on just 12.5 times what's now clear is trough year earnings. Vast majority of profit is now in Australia which is growing strongly. Should be able to particularly impute the April dividend which I am hoping comes in at 23 cps.
Annual dividends about 47 cps appear sustainable going forward and with partial imputation this brings the yield up to ~ 10% Gross. The way Glassons Australia has grown before Covid and especially during Covid, frankly, you have to take your hat off to them. 300,000 Glassons app downloads last year, 850,000 this year. Hmmm...why did I sell ?
QuoteSo the future looks bright for Glassons AU as the retail normalises and they should make $25m/$30m in F23. Winner
Hmmm...I think you are right.
Time to get the pastels out and draw those lines under the bottom of chart and over lay AUS retail sales variances for all retailers .
surprised winner has not already done so.
One imagines people are busy gardening as spring forces everyone back outside and tend to the exploding greenery.....
The news the world was going to end might have seen the veterans like MR B building up cash.
Seem to remeber cash reserves being built up earlier in the year.
Fed likely to press ahead breaking the market and next autumn should see the market turning the corner..
Winners graph certainly refocuses the case for the company.
continuing sales growth is AUS mean investor have to go back to reading the market updates carefully.
Certainly appear this could be a near term bottom for the SP.
Stock turn at 4.9 times is crazy good considering there are only 4 seasons in the year and taking into account the severity of supply chain challenges last year. Lot of talk on CNBC about shipping rates coming down. On the flip side the exchange rate will cause them some challenges and customers will simply have to get used to paying more but I think customers are pretty accepting of that given inflation is embedded at this point.
Selling recently when I sold out of WHS was a mistake. Throwing the baby out with the bathwater. Wasn't thinking straight at the time.
Glassons Au growth before and especially during the pandemic blows my mind to be honest about it.
Disc: I did buy the ones I sold back and a few more extra as well and am on the bid for more. Expecting 47 cents in divvies in the next 6 months.
well the support 4.80 level held ....
and is undervalued but HB side of the business is barely Profitable and suppose shows that NZ is a different market THAN Aus women clothing market.
Let's normalize this and see what's possible for FY23.
Sum of the parts is the way to value HLG. Before last year's heavily Covid impacted result the Hallensteins side of the business was making ~ $5m and Glassons N.Z. was making ~ $11.5m. Total $16.5m and on 59.65m shares that's 27.6 cps. Provided they can stablise those two business's that suggests future dividends can be imputed to about a 55% level.
I think there's a compelling case to say these two parts of the business are ostensibly very mature and no growth, so I would value them on a recovery to normalised earnings at a no growth PE of 8.5 = 8.5 x 27.6 cps = $2.35.
Glassons Au is by far and away the rock star segment of this company and has a proven history now of very strong sales growth both before and during the pandemic and in my opinion deserves a PE commensurate with the growth rate given the size of the opportunity in Australia and the minimal market penetration there to date. Also growth in the US being served ex Australia. If Winner is right and they can do $25-30m net profit there, call it $27.5m in FY23 that's 27.5 / 59.65m shares = 46.1 cps.
Choose your own PE but something in the mid to late teens with their proven growth rate there seems totally appropriate to me. If you use a PE of 17.5 times FY23 estimated earnings, my goodness that suggests Glasson's Australia is worth 17.5 x 46.1 cps = $8.07.
Sum of the parts is north of $10. If they can pay 47 cps and impute that by half going forward that's 47 / 0.86 = 54.5 cps gross.
Conclusion. I think it's quite plausible HLG will recover back to over $7 in the forseeable future and as the market gets more history about Glasson's Au growth and Glassons N.Z. and Hallensteins recovery the shares will head north from there. In the meantime there's the ~ 10% gross yield to enjoy.
As you say, it appears to have built a base at just over $5 over the last 4-5 months so the TA looks quite encouraging too.
A compelling case from MR B and unlike MHJ no buy back that managment and others can sell into.
Instead more likely to increase its dividend and let the SP reflect the fact that retained earnings are for special dividends and not for off market transfers....
Might need to increase my forecast for F23
Looking at the 5 Period sales model I have when they say the first 8 weeks sales are 68.5% ahead of last year in $ terms that's about $30m
Gross Margin on those sales about $17m - allow for an increase in expenses and you'd you have to say EBIT is already $15m ahead of least year ($11m after tax)
Looking at retail sales data it seems NZ has contributed its fair share to this increase - that's a sign things are looking brighter over here - and of course Glassons AU will continue to power ahead
I'll do some more sums but with NZ operations pivoting (for the better) and AUstralia looking good the forecast profit will probably be better than I what I came up with earlier - could even see H1 profit in $20m/$25m range
From BusinessDesk (prob get into trouble for copying)
Is the Bell tolling at Hallenstein's?
Veteran doesn't even begin to describe the tenure of Hallensteins Glassons' long-serving chair, Warren Bell. The former Deloitte audit partner and occasional Boris Johnson lookalike has been chair at the retail chain predating the 1987 share market crash, carbon-dating him to that unfortunate period known now as the Stubbies Era.
It's not generally thought to be good governance practice to stay in place for quite so long and Bell attracted criticism from the NZ Shareholders' Association a few years back about the firm's lack of succession planning. So, when On the Money noticed Bell sold his last 1,143 shares on market for $5,755, we had to wonder whether he was finally signalling an end to his 36 years of involvement in the rag trade.
We'll get a clue at the upcoming annual meeting, which should be in December, although we also note he was elected for another three-year rotation at last year's meeting. Given Bell's diligent attendance at board and committee meetings, OTM expects he'll be taking a belt and braces approach to any such move.
Read more - see i'm promoting them eh
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/on-the-money/on-the-money-cam-wallace-hallensteins-chair-andrew-thorburn-and-more
FB posts from the Doyan's of financial market blogging...
Quote from: winner (n) on Oct 08, 2022, 09:25 AMMight need to increase my forecast for F23
Looking at the 5 Period sales model I have when they say the first 8 weeks sales are 68.5% ahead of last year in $ terms that's about $30m
Gross Margin on those sales about $17m - allow for an increase in expenses and you'd you have to say EBIT is already $15m ahead of least year ($11m after tax)
Looking at retail sales data it seems NZ has contributed its fair share to this increase - that's a sign things are looking brighter over here - and of course Glassons AU will continue to power ahead
I'll do some more sums but with NZ operations pivoting (for the better) and AUstralia looking good the forecast profit will probably be better than I what I came up with earlier - could even see H1 profit in $20m/$25m range
Sssshhhh...I haven't finished backing up the truck yet.
I'm just looking forward to a full year or normal trading without all the silly lockdowns like last year.
Dont worry when the market realises that there may be an ACT / Nat government the market will have a melt down and should be able to get them for 4 again...
They will declare a GST reduction of 5 percent. and a top rate of 20 cemts across all entity types and interest deduction for property.
WHole market will melt down and they will fire 25 % of all government staff and float anything that moves on thte stock market...
LOL - Take it easy on the drinks tonight mate.
Off topic.. almost.
Centre right taking local elections... just wait could be the start of whole new NZ market...
Should sell all MHJ and any shares under water and buy HLG....
instead of a Managed BB where the retail investor is not invtited till the deal is done HLG invites you to take the DIVIDEND in whole not in part.....
Follow the HOUND!!!!
Sounds like a lot of wishful thinking on this thread. HLG are an excellent retailer but the environment is tough with a lot of margin pressures. Freight, currency weakness, higher wages all negatives but hopefully a clean trading year in prospect.
Quote from: Arbroath on Oct 09, 2022, 10:26 PMSounds like a lot of wishful thinking on this thread. HLG are an excellent retailer but the environment is tough with a lot of margin pressures. Freight, currency weakness, higher wages all negatives but hopefully a clean trading year in prospect.
Indeed - this article, this morning:
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2210/S00117/minor-improvements-in-retail-outlook-but-inflationary-pressures-remain.htm
Sold there them shares !!!!
Round em up ....
Bib them YUUUUPPP
Sell hem down!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_VbwZsYPwY
Quote from: Arbroath on Oct 09, 2022, 10:26 PMSounds like a lot of wishful thinking on this thread. HLG are an excellent retailer but the environment is tough with a lot of margin pressures. Freight, currency weakness, higher wages all negatives but hopefully a clean trading year in prospect.
Maybe you missed this bit
QuoteFuture Outlook
The first eight weeks of the new financial year have seen Group sales improve
by +68.49% on the prior year.
Its been widely reported on CNBC that container rates are coming down from their Covid peak.
I might have jumped the gun a bit early...but if you wait until conditions are more obviously better the shares won't be in the low $5's in my opinion.
People are going to have to get used to paying more for their clothes because of the factors you mentioned and I think the sales results year to date suggest that they are. HLG are N.Z. oldest listed company...you have to trust some companies to do the business for you and HLG have earned my respect and trust over many years unlike a lot of the other investment dross out there.
AUS retail stats are where to look as winner does... NZ retails not that important for this stock...
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/03/ocean-shipping-orders-are-signaling-a-big-drop-in-consumer-demand.html
I dont think you can blame the industry environment, some retailers are absolutely smashing it. Quality outs itself in times like these.
https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/business/retail/cotton-on-owner-nigel-austin-strikes-gold-as-earnings-hit-501m/news-story/82ca866a4963ebbda0ae190acd5552ea
Cotton On, one of the country's largest fashion retailers, has defied the gloom in the sector to double its profits and pay its reclusive owner a big dividend. Earnings reached $501m for the retail chain mostly owned by billionaire Nigel Austin, making it one of the most profitable Australian retailers in recent history.
Net profit more than doubled to $126.4m as revenue surged to $2.13bn, the company's most recent financial report, obtained by The Australian, reveals. The Cotton On results compared to a $61m net profit in 2021 and revenue of $1.32bn.
I went shopping in Newmarket today and was shocked to see so many shops vacant and looking for a new tenant. I wonder if it is a reflection of how tough retail has been, or still is?
Both the Datamine monthly overview of NZ's electronic retail spend - that is in store and online and the Stats Dept Retail trade survey quarterly will be out soon.
No question the year ahead will see the wheat sorted from the chaff in terms of who's going to do well and who's going to fail. Interesting comment on pricing intentions this quarter, retailers expect to increase prices another 5% after a 6% increase last quarter. Lot of talk about margin pressure but the smart operators are managing that well with price increases and reduced discounting.
https://www.interest.co.nz/business/117949/latest-survey-retailers-shows-still-significant-number-are-unsure-if-their
Quote from: Playa on Oct 10, 2022, 04:42 PMI went shopping in Newmarket today and was shocked to see so many shops vacant and looking for a new tenant. I wonder if it is a reflection of how tough retail has been, or still is?
Been like that for a while, they either went into the Westfield or closed up all together, though still quite a few empty places in Westfield last time I was in there 6-12 months ago, more so ground floor
Quote from: Hectorplains on Oct 10, 2022, 07:05 AMIndeed - this article, this morning:
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2210/S00117/minor-improvements-in-retail-outlook-but-inflationary-pressures-remain.htm
That Greg Harford a miserable soul ... but then when 30% of the retailers he 'represents' say they mightn't be around in years time he might be worried about his own job.
AUS sales is what this stock is about they could shut down NZ and it would not matter... who care what NZ retail is....
If retail NZ get to that point it could be a whole sale slaughter at the next election and the reserve bank might find itself under seige.....
they will storm the building.. since the most up to date data is in fact nor processed by the reserve bank but by a computer software system in a north island university run by a germany data scienctist we can doubt that the reserve bank is much use anyway. It could be replaced by a software program.
central HAMTRON used to rock from thursday on now the party city is dead and has been for a long time well before the bug. It never really recovered after the GFC.
ever growing stock of empty retail shops.
Quote from: Playa on Oct 10, 2022, 04:42 PMI went shopping in Newmarket today and was shocked to see so many shops vacant and looking for a new tenant. I wonder if it is a reflection of how tough retail has been, or still is?
Look at it from the bright side ... less competitors means more business for the surviving shops :) ;
Stats NZ Electronic Card Spend September month
Apparel up 97% on September last year - that follows a 66% increase in August month
Similar picture in Australia
Is comapred to covid lockdown periods but heck that's a great start to the year for HLG (who did say first 8 weeks sales up more than 60% v pcp)
Overall total sales from this report look OK - headline said 'Retail card spending up in September'
Quote from: winner (n) on Oct 11, 2022, 11:09 AMStats NZ Electronic Card Spend September month
Apparel up 97% on September last year - that follows a 66% increase in August month
Similar picture in Australia
Is comapred to covid lockdown periods but heck that's a great start to the year for HLG (who did say first 8 weeks sales up more than ]68%[ v pcp)
Overall total sales from this report look OK - headline said 'Retail card spending up in September'
Fixed that for ya 8) Excellent, thanks for sharing.
I think people are well and truly over this pandemic and keen to get out and enjoy themselves again and some fresh new clothes is very much part of that.
Starting to wonder if HLG will have enough stock to meet this explosion in demand ?
Glassons have 699,000 followers on Instagram - that's guite a few
Online sales still very important for them even though they say as things return to more normal don't epect them to grow at the same rate as last few years
But the online activity saved the day for them over the last couple years
Since Jan2020 group sales are up $58m - of that $54m came from online - online basically drove all the sales growth for them
0000hlgonline.JPG
Quote from: Basil on Oct 10, 2022, 06:21 PMNo question the year ahead will see the wheat sorted from the chaff in terms of who's going to do well and who's going to fail. Interesting comment on pricing intentions this quarter, retailers expect to increase prices another 5% after a 6% increase last quarter. Lot of talk about margin pressure but the smart operators are managing that well with price increases and reduced discounting.
https://www.interest.co.nz/business/117949/latest-survey-retailers-shows-still-significant-number-are-unsure-if-their
CCX stated that they increased prices during the year in anticipation of an intense discounting period at the end of the year due to retailers being overstocked and needing to clear inventory. So there will be big discounts going, and if you put your prices up you can offer 40% off in the holiday sales, instead of 20% off. Sales period kicks off this week with Amazon Prime Day, then Singles Day, then Black Friday, Christmas, and New Year sales.
Quote from: winner (n) on Oct 11, 2022, 11:09 AMStats NZ Electronic Card Spend September month
Apparel up 97% on September last year - that follows a 66% increase in August month
October is going to blow the numbers out of the water because Costco opened. People are spending the GDP of small island nations in there ;D
A bit of a look at this company:
(https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:best,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Frecastinvestor.substack.com%2Fapi%2Fv1%2Fpress_kit%2F77376596.jpg%3FbgImage%3Dtrue%26textColor%3D%2523ffffff%26hash%3D922850178%26version%3D9?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email) (https://recastinvestor.substack.com/p/update-hallenstein-glasson-holdings-788)
Nice work Recaster.
One question: why are dividends paid classified under "operating cash flows"? Shouldn't they sit under "financing" even if HLG have them under "operating"?
HLG have their own unique steady way of doing things including no debt. That's the reason they are N.Z.'s oldest listed company. Long may the way they do things continue. Glassons Australia will continue growing strongly without any debt and the N.Z. operations of the company will recover without all the radicicolous lockdown's. Partial imputation credits will return in due course.
Disc: I bought a few more yesterday. Now my #1 holding.
Quote from: Basil on Oct 15, 2022, 12:51 PMHLG have their own unique steady way of doing things including no debt. That's the reason they are N.Z.'s oldest listed company. Long may the way they do things continue. Glassons Australia will continue growing strongly without any debt and the N.Z. operations of the company will recover without all the radicicolous lockdown's. Partial imputation credits will return in due course.
Disc: I bought a few more yesterday. Now my #1 holding.
So true
Operating Cash Flows (including lease payments) over the last 5 years have been $190m
They've spent $50m on stores and distribution centre and paid $125m in dividends
Kept spending (investing) during pandemic - good stuff
Seems good use of the cash they've generated
Condidered expansion good - with available capabilities and resources
Excellent point about investment in distribution centers and not to forget investment in websites, apps and other supporting software and functionality.
Can you think of any other listed company on the NZX that can say they make 28% of all sales online ?
Does any other NZ listed retailer even get close to this very impressive figure ?
Quote from: Ferg on Oct 15, 2022, 09:57 AMNice work Recaster.
One question: why are dividends paid classified under "operating cash flows"? Shouldn't they sit under "financing" even if HLG have them under "operating"?
His name is Recaster so he recasts financials to a format that best suits him to present his views
I do that as well - recast things that to me best reflect the reality of economics and with Cash Flow recast to reflect where cash comes from and goes
Like this is how I look at HLG's cashflow -
Reported Operating Cash Flow 52.5m
less Lease payments 23.8m (ye old rent payments)
Give adjusted (real) Operating Cash Flow 28.7m
less Cash used Investing (Capex) 8.2m
Gives Free Cash Flow 20.5mless Dividends to shareholders 25.1m (a bit like interest as cost of capital)
Cash Outflow 4.4m (or called Cash Retained if positive)Funded by Sale of Treasury Stock 0.4m and reduction in cash held 4.0m
Ferg - you don't want to see my recast retirement company cash flows - quite revealing where I see the cash going
What does sales year to date in the first 8 weeks of FY23 up 68.49% really mean given the whole Auckland region was in the infamous 107 lockdown last year and much of Australia too? Is this really any good or not?
Maybe we should compare sales to the first 8 weeks of FY21, the previous (August / Sep 2020) instead? Well, yes and no, yes there weren't so many lockdowns, but No Covid was still a major factor then as it only really started in March 2020.
Okay so maybe the most useful comparison is how does the first 8 weeks of FY23 compare to the first 8 weeks of FY20, (pre covid) before any of us had even heard of Covid ?. Hmmm...yes that would be interesting to know...so I thought I would crunch some numbers.
Excerpts from key Outlook statements include:
30/09/2022 The first eight weeks of the new financial year have seen Group sales improve by +68.49% on the prior year.
30/09/2021 The first eight weeks of the new financial year have seen Group sales decline -18.90% on the prior year,
25/09/2020 The first eight weeks of the new financial year have seen Group sales grow +10.71% on the prior year,
27/09/2019 The first eight weeks of the new financial year have seen Group sales grow +7.23% on the prior year
Using the 27/09/2019 (pre covid) as the starting reference point and calling sales $X then, since then sales have grown by 10.71% = X = 1.1071, fallen by 18.9% X = 0.898 and grown by 68.49% X = 1.513.
Conclusion - Sales for the first 8 weeks of FY23 are 51.3% higher than pre-pandemic level's.
Next up I want to have a look at how online sales have grown as a percentage of sales since the pandemic hit us.
Key Excerpts
27/09/2019 Online sales now represent 15% of Group turnover.
30/09/2022 Online sales now represent 27.88% of total sales for the full financial year.
Conclusion - The percentage of sales made online has nearly doubled (up 85.86%) since 2019.
Given sales are up 51.3% 1.8586 x 1.513 = 2.81, it is reasonable to conclude in dollar terms online sales for the first 8 weeks of FY23 have nearly tripled since pre-pandemic levels.
Well positioned going forward is an overused cliche but seems very apt in this case.
Hey Basil - as per my previous post first 8 weeks sales increase for F23 is about $30m or $12m profit impact
Seeing they made $26m profit in F22 which included the terrible first 8 weeks of last year with sales being down 19% you would have to think you could almost add the $12m to that - and that's only assuming the rest of the year is flat
All looking good
Quote from: winner (n) on Oct 15, 2022, 03:35 PMFerg - you don't want to see my recast retirement company cash flows - quite revealing where I see the cash going
Too right winner. I also "recast" my own cash flows. It is certainly interesting for the RV companies. I won't expand on that here (wrong place). In summary you can present whatever profit method you like, but you can't hide from the cash flows.
Basil: nice work with the numbers but I'm not sure how/why you got the 2.81 - is there an element of double counting? I'm not following that final step.
Thanks Ferg. Online sales as a percentage of total sales are up 85.86% since pre-covid. (27.88 / 15.0)
Sales themselves in total are up 51.3% per previous posted workings, therefore online sales in dollar terms are up by both the percentage gain online 85.86% and the absolute gain in total sales themselves 51.3% (1.8586 x 1.513 = 2.812).
Hope that helps.
Why is this important many might ask ?
The percentage of sales online is often seen as the holy grail of retail as this avenue of sales can often grow with little or no addition to overhead.
For instance, from memory, this time last year there had been 300,000 downloads of the Glassons App. I think they just announced this is now up to 850,000. I'm sorry I can't remember where I read this, maybe someone else can help ?
That sort of growth in one year is pretty exciting because a lot of the target market (young people) are really into the whole online digital thing and spend a lot of time online so it's an important lead indicator that online sales channel growth will still be strong notwithstanding all the physical stores being open this year.
Ok. I would have thought that the online sales (and their increase) was a subset of the overall increase. I'm happy to be corrected if I have misunderstood the numbers. Was the "total sales" increase of 51% just for in-store sales, or was it for all sales? I think this is where I am getting confused.
Edit: sorry, I think you were extrapolating to the online portion only for the 281%. Got it.
All versus online versus in-store.
2022 versus 2019 base (note I am showing % increase, so 151% versus base is showing as +51%)
HLG8weeks - Copy.JPG
Yeap, so basically online sales in dollar terms have nearly tripled since pre-pandemic levels.
Thanks for adding your analysis Ferg, so in store sales are up 28% which underscores their carefully measured approach to adding further store footprint.
I really like the way they cautiously expand the business. I think Tim Glasson having 20% of the shares is a major factor here. Old school carefully paced expansion with no debt...A lot to like.
I also think with all the incredible challenges with Covid, supply chain issues and major increases in freight costs they did extremely well to maintain sales last year and maintain the gross profit margin at the same time. Those are no easy feat's last year.
Yes Winner, onward and upward from here ! I have just about talked myself into buying even more 👍
Impressive indeed. So that is where growth is being driven. Given enough time, experience and volume, online sales will come at a lower cost to serve.
In other words:
Supplier -> Dist Centre -> Client
versus
Supplier -> DC - > Store -> Client
Quote from: Basil on Oct 16, 2022, 02:24 PMOld school carefully paced expansion with no debt...A lot to like.
This statement cannot be said enough and is the reason I like HLG. Risk is being managed carefully.
Quote from: Ferg on Oct 16, 2022, 02:34 PMThis statement cannot be said enough and is the reason I like HLG. Risk is being managed carefully.
Very prudent risk management like they are managing their own money which is of course the case with Tim Glasson.
I think the thing I also like a heck of a lot, (seeing as long term patience is not one of my strengths...it is best to simply accept and best honest about one's weakness's I reckon) is that we're being paid exceptionally well while we wait for more growth too.
They've paid an interim divvy of 23 cents before and I think close to that level is where April 2023's divvy probably lands so that's 47 cents in the next 6 months and based on my analysis of the imputation credit account I think the April divvy will be partially imputed so we're looking at around a 10% gross yield.
I find it much easier to be patient waiting for more growth when being paid really handsomely like that.
The vast majority of companies are more than happy to take money off you and hold it back to fund growth...HLG are almost unique in the way they go about things in that they pay you really well and grow nicely at the same time. I wonder what their eps and annual dividends will be 5 years from now ? Hmmm
Let's not all buy at the same time on Monday.....
;D
And some are happy to do special buy backs that support company and related party shareholders wanting to bump some stock...
Someone posted an analytical report on HLG in sharetrader. The profit and loss reports had the income section as debits and the expenses as credits -() sign.
lets not even go into the country's transaction id less bank transaction recording systems nor the complete transaction mess that is exported by the broking platforms.
Lets hope that the back office platform for HLG isnt in the same mess that the rest of the countries bank and accounting solutions are in....
wont be buying many as the Sp 500 looks to be trending down into the low 3's and could even break down below it...
warming signs are every where...
Just call us more pessimistic than an audit team....
https://edition.cnn.com/videos/business/2022/10/16/china-xi-jinping-party-congress-economy-wang-pkg-intl-hnk-vpx.cnn
Online shopping % is a great metric and net value add. But I don't think its a free lunch.
I've always considered the level of online shopping to be an important contributor to demand....getting more people to order than they would have otherwise, whether that be people who wanted to shop in private the first time, or prompting existing customers to re-order in higher frequencies than they would have otherwise. In that respect, for me, it's all about broadening demand and widdening the distribution channel.
From a % margin perspective its not a free lunch, and if anything dampens the % margin overall result. From an opex perspective most retailers either fullfil orders from their stores or a dedicated distribution centre to facilitate online shopping. If its the later, there is an incremental opex required.
But the main thing is what it does to GP margins. There is and will always be pressure to offer free shipping or reduced shipping if spending x dollars. That's a cost.
Second and most importantly are the returns. Returns are a massive business cost. Some companies offer free returns, others ask customers to pay for it, which has other indirect costs. But you would be shocked at the incremental level of processing, double handling, and stock write offs that result from returns. Its very common for garments returned to simply be binned rather than resold if there are any slight defects from the return process.
Overall I reckon online actually decreases both GP% and EBIT % of sales, but because it drives demand more, overall drives higher GP and EBIT dollars. And that is if the bulk of orders are coming from existing customers - new customers have to be acquired, with high customer acquisition costs (google adwords, insta adwords, etc)
But while I reckon a good long term channel to have and grower to absolute PBT earnings, its no where close to a free lunch.
The glasson app...
https://www.glassons.com/app
if your transaction banking system is ancient like in NZ and your laws for doing business reach to the sky your companies are going to be less profitable..
NZ business is on borrowed time...
Quote from: winner (n) on Oct 16, 2022, 12:35 PMHey Basil - as per my previous post first 8 weeks sales increase for F23 is about $30m or $12m profit impact
Seeing they made $26m profit in F22 which included the terrible first 8 weeks of last year with sales being down 19% you would have to think you could almost add the $12m to that - and that's only assuming the rest of the year is flat All looking good
That's the thing isn't it mate. It's extremely unlikely the rest of the year will be flat. Not only are sales 51% more than pre covid but we're cycling FY22, a year in which there were extensive periods of lockdowns of both sides of the Tasman.
FM - Don't think anyone's claiming they're a free lunch but HLG built dedicated distribution centers in Australia and New Zealand for good reasons and online sales volumes nearly tripling in the last 3 years has to bring economies of scale with those overheads. I'm probably very different to the average consumer but when I buy something online and it tuns out it's not quite right, I never get around to being bothered to return it. Probably means I have more money than sense lol, or more likely there's more profitable or enjoyable ways to spend my time.
^^^^ Thanks for sharing your insights.
They did mention (not that long ago) that some of the online stuff was dispatched ex store
Seeing stores aren't selling any more than before the pandemic I suppose that's one way of keeping them occupied
Great discussion ... just one thing I am wondering given that we seem to put huge emphasis on the first 8 weeks of the financial year:
I remember this early spring as quite warm, but the second part a s rather cold and wet and not really inspiring to buy new stuff ...
Do we need to find a year with similar conditions for comparison? Otherwise we always might compare apples with oranges ...
Not sure, whether above observations mean that this years results are still (and sustainably) better than the years before (people bought more despite they could have kept the winter clothes), or less good (people just had to buy two sets of clothes and have now enough for the year). But maybe, we should not take the Covid lockdowns as only important factor ... there is as well the weather, the helicopter money from the government and many other things.
the darkhorse here is the KIWI .... its more a dead horse at the moment and all retail in NZ might be stuck on a heavy track...
Rating agencies say they cant see the horses for the track in NZ at the moment... who ever shorted KIWI was on to a Winner...
HLG had ~ $30m forward cover at balance date, they generally forward cover known purchase commitments in the months ahead.
Retailers are pushing through price increases, think I read last week the average retailer is expected to increase prices this quarter by 6% after a 5% increase last quarter.
People are simply going to have to get used to paying more and the evidence suggests they are.
Could it be that AUS and NZ divert on the economic turn pike and HLG becomes an AUS focused company as outlined by MR B for several years now.
dont see NZX going anywhere as the country just doesnt want to privatise its self.
warehousing is surely a big deal and currency hedging right now..
No trade deal with INDIA seems just crazy. Lets juts hope the kiwis just dont know the kiwi is worth not much. and keep shopping!
Annual Report out
Glassons now have 700k Instagram followers - 32k more than last year. Average sales per follower $373 if that means anything
Glassons also have 160k TikTok followers now - was only 118k last year
TikTok seems the way to go
Glassons doing all the right things
The NZ performance ?
G AUS is the show for sure.
Tik Tok is the new evil platform stealing 70 percent of donations to refugees.
The var with MHJ in respective P&L categories is interesting.
Expect MR B is trying to find time to go over the numbers.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/401205/381946.pdf
"Now that there is less disruption, I feel we have come out the other side with the brands stronger than ever and ready to take on the challenges
that we will face in the future"... While Glassons New Zealand didn't have as strong a performance during the second half of the year, there has been improvements as we have moved into the new financial year..
STUART DUNCAN
CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER
I really like the very understated way they talk about sales comparatives to last year when talking about sales YTD up 68%. Paraphrased - "Comparisons with last year are difficult to make due to lockdowns etc". You have to actually crunch the numbers to work out that sales are up 51% YTD compared to 2019 pre covid level's.
Another thing I really like is there's currently one less physical Glassons store in Australia than N.Z. despite the Australian market being about six times the size. Gives a really useful insight into the size of the total "dressable" market there and the length of the runway for long term growth in Australia.
To MR B:
Note: Page 32 and 33
Performance report for 2022 and 2021 Table report is missing expense categories and the items in the columns dont add up to the totals.
Selling expenses appear to be missing for brand break down?
That is a terrible reporting format let alone no Page index in the report PDF object.
An example of what appears to be a terrible data presentation.
10/10
I'm not going to bother drilling down into the detail too much, sorry Waltzing. I am sure there are logical explanations for your concerns and there may be better ways to present the data but what I am doing is concentrating on the big picture that I've already alluded too.
I think they've navigated the challenges of Covid really well.
What we have here is the oldest listed company on the NZX doing a very capital efficient job of expanding into the Australian market taking a very prudent approach and getting fabulous results.
I think they can do $400m+ in sales this year for circa 55 cps so we have a company with a well proven track record of growth with Glassons Au on a forward PE of only 10.
In addition, I think they can impute the April dividend of about 24 cps by half so that translates to 48 cps in dividends with 25% imputation = 51.61 cps gross which is close to a 10% gross yield.
Beagles are not patient dogs when it comes to eating so getting a 10% gross yield and buying a company with proven growth record and heaps more growth potential on a forward PE of 10 makes this a 10/10 dividend hounds stock and the "purrfect" stock for me.
They never come to you for more money to fund their growth, (and they pay you exceptionally well while they grow), which really makes this stand out to me.
Obviously, there's so many other things I like about it including no debt, cautious expansion of physical stores, strong growth in online sales, excellent stock turn, stable 20% long term cornerstone stake by Tim Glasson, Tim Glasson's son driving Glassons Au and I think Stuart Duncan is doing a great job as CEO.
In all my years I have never owned more HLG than I do currently and I'm thinking about buying even more !
I regularly check their website for the express purpose of ensuring their latest styles are "on trend" It's "hard work" but someone has to do it lol
https://www.glassons.com/
"In addition, I think they can impute the April dividend of about 24 cps by half so that translates to 48 cps in dividends with 25% imputation = 51.61 cps gross which is close to a 10% gross yield."
lastest GDP report out of the US has growth higher than expected which means what recession?
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/27/treasury-yields-rise-as-traders-scan-data-for-hints-about-fed-policy-.html
on a brighter note JB HI has beaten expectations showing the aussi retail shopper is still going strong.
Australia retail sales ex ABS for month of September
Clothing sector sales for month 72% higher than last year - wow
No wonder HLG got excited when saying something about sales for first part of year up 68%
Overall total retail sales for month were up 19% on last year - but with clothing sector really booming maybe this PEACOCKING thing is a real thing ...... and plenty of ladies going to the Melbourne Cup this week
Westpac tracker data for Oct still pretty +ve in OZ retail
A
I think this warrants another look at the website just to be sure they are up with the latest trends of course, no other reason. :-[ https://www.glassons.com/
Oh my goodness, there's definitely some peacocking going on with their models that's for sure !
Only a month and a half (paid on 16 December) until we get the juicy 24 cent dividend in time for the Christmas season. 8)
Hey Winner, With sales up about 70% do they have enough stock for the busy season ahead ?
Another question, with stock flying out the door doesn't this mean a lot less discounting for the Christmas holiday season leading to better margins as well ?
Definitely some "peacocking" going on here...not sure they are Glassons outfits though... https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/live-updates-2022-melbourne-cup-at-flemington-ultimate-form-guide-final-field-odds-tips-best-form-best-bets/MUX3G75VMVCXHD2XMFCHN4TSMU/
Quote from: winner (n) on Oct 27, 2022, 09:48 AMAnnual Report out
Glassons now have 700k Instagram followers - 32k more than last year. Average sales per follower $373 if that means anything
Glassons also have 160k TikTok followers now - was only 118k last year
TikTok seems the way to go
Glassons doing all the right things
I guess the fact I only came now across the report demonstrates my interest in HLG ... but hey, they are still on my watchlist.
No big changes in the parameters I tend to monitor (NTA 2 cents up, ROE dropped to 28.3%, but still quite healthy, liabilities to assets up a bit, but no worries).
However - some observation: I used to like the way their models are dressed for their reports, in some years their reports are a real joy for the eye, but this years report is somehow a disappointment. Feels like a rerun of the 1970'ies - anyway, many of the tops, dresses and other clothes just look lame to me.
But hey - they say "de gustibus non es disputandum", so maybe its just me?
I hope their customers like these colours and cuts - really this stuff needs to leave the shelves as soon as possible, it looks already tired unsold.
I will pick this year some other shop to buy stuff for my family.
Maybe Kathmandu?
RetailWatch October sales data (NZ) showed Clothing and Footwear up 22.5% on October last year
Australia market on booming .... NZ not doing too badly either
Last 3 months (first 3 months of HLG financial year) NZ market up 32%
All looking good .... good update coming next month .... wonder what x will be when they say 'first 18 weeks sales are x% more than same period last year'
Big number I reckon - all looking good for HLG
dairy price recession coming according to AUSSI traders on Winners() favourite channel CN B... C....... (thats a long B and C)
kiwi to expensive... lucky this is an AUSSI stock then.... should not they change listings? NZX cheaper one supposes.
you can publish any old report or probably soon will be able to.
Quote from: Waltzing on Nov 08, 2022, 04:49 PMdairy price recession coming according to AUSSI traders on Winners() favourite channel CN B... C....... (thats a long B and C)
kiwi to expensive... lucky this is an AUSSI stock then.... should not they change listings? NZX cheaper one supposes.
you can publish any old report or probably soon will be able to.
CNBC is evil ......bad for your health if you watch the cheerleaders too much
HLG are great at managing stocks and margins
Like for every $ of stock held they generate $6.60 of Gross Margin in a year
Even the god like Rod can't beat that - he only manages $3.17 .... and he's ahead of other NZ retailers
Quote from: winner (n) on Nov 09, 2022, 03:10 PMHLG are great at managing stocks and margins
Like for every $ of stock held they generate $6.60 of Gross Margin in a year
Even the god like Rod can't beat that - he only manages $3.17 .... and he's ahead of other NZ retailers
Amazing how they will turn ~$30m of stock into $400m+ of sales in FY23. Watching this happen will be a lot of fun this year and VERY rewarding.
I think they can do north of 60 cents eps this year. Hope they only pay out 50 cps and leave lots left over for more Glassons Australia store expansion.
26% CAGR in sales in the last 5 years for Glassons Aust and I think that can continue for the next 5 years to ~ $500m in FY27...looking for group sales to more than double from FY22's $351m to $700m+ by FY27. Based on my forecast for FY23 HLG trades on a PE of 8.5, a gross yield of 10% and has excellent growth prospects. Disc: I have been steadily backing the truck up but there's more room in the trailer unit so sell me some more at $5.30 and make my day 😁
Notice they built this maschine on NO Capital raises and have never done a buy back?
miracle stuff as reported by MR B...
In a depressing market its a bright note to end the week on. Many Thanks.
I tell you what, it is real hard not to be sentimental about this stock
Quote from: arekaywhy on Nov 14, 2022, 10:34 AMI tell you what, it is real hard not to be sentimental about this stock
I've given up trying not to be and have backed up the truck. Oldest listed company on the NZX. On top of everything else I have mentioned about this company it's hard not to really love the history and longevity of this company....oh and let's not forget at the risk of being dogmatic ;D , best stock turn in the retail sector, highest online sales percentage of any listed N.Z. retailer, no debt, proven history of half a decade of strong growth of Glassons Au with a HUGE runway of growth ahead over there, $35m cash in the bank which is ~ 59 cents per share, still trades cum a 24 cent divvy next month....I could go on but you get the idea lol HLG, the gift you give yourself with a growing 10% gross yield...I bought a LOT for my birthday....very happy Beagle 😁
https://www.interest.co.nz/business/118467/review-things-you-need-know-you-sign-tuesday-housing-market-stays-weak-visitor
$N.Z. now recovered ~10% from its recent low of under 56 cents to be ~ 61.5 cents this evening and now within a couple of cents of the 10 year average which from memory sits at about 63 cents.
That's one headwind that is abating and will help with Autumn and Winter 2023 stock purchases, (I assume all summer stock is already on hand).
Shipping rates coming down ?
based in yield price still not doing anything much which is great for anyone loading up....
Quote from: Waltzing on Nov 17, 2022, 03:40 PMbased in yield price still not doing anything much which is great for anyone loading up....
I've been doing a very good impersonation of a vacuum cleaner lately. Just trying to hoover as many shares up as I can in the low 530's.
Quote from: Basil on Nov 17, 2022, 04:26 PMI've been doing a very good impersonation of a vacuum cleaner lately. Just trying to hoover as many shares up as I can in the low 530's.
Must have been a Dyson.... Price moved back up during the afternoon session. :)
who did that... WHO DID THAT!!!
Bottom Feeders (Beagle) had their day, not going to stay low forever with a 24cent DIV beckoning.
Quote from: Capt_Hook on Nov 19, 2022, 06:06 AMBottom Feeders (Beagle) had their day, not going to stay low forever with a 24cent DIV beckoning.
Not to forget another ~ 24 cent (mostly imputed), dividend in mid-April. (My forecast)
You'd expect dividend hounds to get themselves well positioned for those two huge feeds wouldn't you ;)
More to the point for a semi-retired old hound like me I've taken a 5 year view of this as a minimum and I think they can double the size of their business over that timeframe, see previous posts on Glassons Au growth, so it's possible that by 2027 we could be talking about as much as $1 per annum in dividends :-[ ..and I think a $10+ handle goes with that....but just keeping my expectations in check a bit in the meantime I think it's highly likely that the future growth in dividends will beat the inflation rate and we'll see real increases in income in the years ahead. That's my main focus, I'll let the share price look after itself.
"$10+ handle"
WOA ....
I reckon first half profit will be about $23m and second half $19m
Seems outrageous but don't forget sales up nearly 70% in start of year
That's $42m for the year ... a RECORD
That $42m is and EPS of 70 cents
What divie can punters exoect from that?
It would be nice to see them hold a fair bit of that 70 cents back, (say 20 cents ~ $12m), and take the rate of Glassons Au store expansion to the next level.
Such a huge dressable market over there and at this stage they have only just scratched the surface and have one less store there than in N.Z.
I'd like to see them double their Australian footprint from 35 to 70 stores by 2027. 4 extra stores over there last year, several part way through the year so we'll get the full 12 month effect of that expansion this year. I'd like to see the expansion rate grow to 5-6 extra stores per annum in the next 2 years and then 7-8 annually after that. Its clear Australia women have embraced Glassons as a fresh young brand over there and the business has critical mass there now and efficient distribution channels. Its time to put the throttle down and supercharge Glassons Au growth. That said there's nothing wrong whatsoever with their 5 year average growth rate there so far, averaging 26% per annum sales growth is very impressive indeed !
Really looking forward to their annual meeting on 15th December and getting an update on their strong growth year to date...and oh yeah, I'm also really looking forward to the 24 cent dividend on 16th December as well just in time for Christmas! I might be able to afford a super-sized Christmas Ham this year 😁
Australia clothing stores (as per ABS data) annual sales are about $22 billion
Glasson's AU sales about $160m ... or $0.16 billion
So less than 1% share
Yep heaps of dressable market share there to take ..... and greater exposure in more states.
Quote from: winner (n) on Nov 19, 2022, 02:34 PMAustralia clothing stores (as per ABS data) annual sales are about $22 billion
Glasson's AU sales about $160m ... or $0.16 billion
So less than 1% share
Yep heaps of dressable market share there to take ..... and greater exposure in more states.
Wouldn't surprise me at all to see them get to a 1% share $A220m sales ~ $NZ240m this year compared to $NZ157m last year. I know 52% Glassons Au sales growth for the full year sounds ambitious but there were a LOT of lockdowns last year.
Quote from: Basil on Nov 19, 2022, 02:46 PMWouldn't surprise me at all to see them get to a 1% share $A220m sales ~ $NZ240m this year compared to $NZ157m last year. I know 52% Glassons Au sales growth for the full year sounds ambitious but there were a LOT of lockdowns last year.
Glassons AU doubled their share last 4 years so expect them to double share again in say 3 years ... to 1.5%
That's about $400m of sales .... just from Glassons AU
0000glau.JPG
Very impressive market share gains to date and its very early days with only a tiny number of stores relative to the ~ 6 times bigger market in Australia. I really appreciate the effort you've put into this for us. Agreed the prospects for further growth are very exciting and yet you get all future growth for a no growth PE of about 8 and a gross yield of about 10%.
Is this the perfect retiree's share ? You get huge feeds twice a year but the size of the pie keeps growing really fast anyway.
Not again.... surely not ....hitting home runs....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mNEUkkoUoIA
come on winner where do you buy your pastels from....
are there emojis on these ancient tech stacks...
Got to thinking seeing as I have a few of these on board now I'd better do a proper forecast.
Remember sales YTD as announced are up more than 68%, (albeit augmented by a lockdowns in the first 8 weeks last period that did not repeat this period).
Here are my key assumptions.
1. Sales growth of 7% due to price increases in line with inflation.
2. Sales growth of 10% relative to last year due to the fact that there were extensive store closures for a considerable period of time last year on both sides of the Tasman.
3. Real growth in sales not related to price increases or Covid bounce-back 7%, (I have deliberately kept this very conservative notwithstanding extra stores from last year open for the full 12 month period, growth in online sales including into America and growth in stores this year).
Total sales for the year forecasted as 24% growth from $351m to $435.5m
4. Cost of sales and gross profit the same 57.5%, acknowledge currency differences but freight will be lower this year and they maintained gross margin really nicely last year with extremely elevated freight costs. Also I expect there will be less need for discounting this year due to sales growth depleting inventory more quickly but I will stick with a GP margin as per the last 2 years of 57.5% Gross profit forecasted at $250.8m
5. Selling expenses will grow in line with inflation 7% + 2 % extra for more stores this year, (no extra stores for Hallensteins or Glassons N.Z., assume 4 more stores for Glassons Au), $126.9m grows to $138.4m
6. Distribution expenses grow in line with increased sales, up 24%
7. Administration expenses grow at the inflation rate 7% + 4% extra, assume some extra staff required to handle admin related to the growth of the business.
8. Finance income jumps nicely this year (Interest earned on $35M in the bank as at balance date and growing during the year will be much higher than last year's interest income)
I'm going on the record forecasting $67m before tax or just on $48m after tax = 80.7 cps.
That sort of profit along with only paying our 2 x 24 cent divvies would allow them a lot of reserve from this year to really accelerate their store opening program with Glasson's Au and supercharge future years growth.
Let's see how we go.
"$67m before tax or just on $48m after tax = 80.7 cps."
wonder what that ould make the batting average now ...
show me the monry ....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mBS0OWGUidc
Forward PE of just 6.84 based on Friday's closing price of $5.52 for a company with a proven history of strong growth in Australia and a huge runway of future growth there. Dirt cheap and a HUGE opportunity ! Those metrics are for a company that trades cum a 24 cent divvy in a few weeks.
Net that back after tax to a 16 cent divvy and treat that divvy as part repayment of the purchase prices gives a forward PE of 536 / 80.7 = 6.64.
That's absurd for a growth company and even cheap for a pure cyclical company which this one certainly is not.
A lot of thought into your $48m profit forecast so probably spot on .... though $50m would sound better
Thought you'd like this updated chart -- HLG profit by year this century
Your forecast just a continuation of the trend from 2016/2017 when Di did a brilliant job in sorting Glassons out in NZ and particularly so in Australia
Cool chart eh
0000hlg.JPG
Cool chart Winner, thanks. Notice how for the first 16 years of this century through to 2016 HLG was just a cyclical no growth company meandering along with the ebbs and flows of the N.Z. economy and then Di laid the foundation for Glassons expansion into Australia and James Glasson has built very nicely indeed on the platform she created. The market is still ascribing a no growth cyclical PE to the strong growth company HLG is now. Opportunity knocks for anyone who can see it! Trades ex the 24 cent divvy on 8 December.
Winner - have you overlaid EPS....
just saying....
Imagine the only reason the share price always lags the yield is that its NZ listed stock and on the ASX its a little retailer ... those european immigrants really cleaned up shop.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-0kcet4aPpQ
Got me crayons out and updated this for you waltz
Still priced on F22 earnings
The big column on the right July 23 is basils forecast
00000hlg.JPG
Oh my goodness if I'm right those earnings would correspond with a $9 share price :o
basil .... since 2006 HLG average PE has been 12.5
So I charted actual share price v what it would be at a PE of 12.5 ..... never very away eh ...and shows the time to buy eh (as you have sussed out a few times already)
Note - the at 12.5 PE line is based on July year EPS applied to the full year (like July 20 EPS applied Jan20 to Dec 20) so a mix of past and forward looking if you get the gist
So 10 bucks not outrageous at EPS of 80 cents
0000hlgpe.JPG
Very nice work Winner, thankyou. WOW...Apart from the initial Covid aberration in early 2020 gosh the share price correlation with earnings based on a PE of 12.5 over a very long period of time, (the vast majority of which was when HLG wasn't really growing earnings) is extraordinary! You could easily argue with average eps growth since FY17 the PE should now be higher !
Balance from the other forum might finally get his $10 and I certainly won't be complaining lol
Just imagine if some boutigue Australian fund manager noticed all this peacocking going on and worked out heck this HLG is real value and started buying big time
Grahger Capital did that a few years and took about 7% of the capital - bumped the share price up from 4 bucks odd to 7 bucks odd ....exciting times and some posters made a killing
Wasn't that exciting for some when they dumped them though
Brillant stuff and interesting relations and is 12.5 then the max the market likes to pay for this stock.
how many investors are savy enough to known that P/E is the number of years....
do the shaz know this? doubtful your average person knows whats what for ratios?
or is business stats a standard unit at school these days..
Only once before has the company ever out performed and never on the scale MR B is predicting. Not a maths person the probabilty would not be that high but then thats history not the future.
It was a fun ride from $2.75 to $7 eh Winner :D
Just double all numbers with more than twice the earnings, ($5.50 to $14) and quadruple the number of shares as well this time and we could have some really serious fun in the years ahead 👍👍
Be a real "shame" in this gets into the NZX50 in due course and all those passive funds have to buy in 😉
Waltz - Don't think too many investors in the other place have got many clues at all about FY23 prospects. No analyst coverage, (we have to be our own analyst), and not even being discussed there at present.
Its a fact that men creating models that fashion the future has always been left to a few european men from france and italy..
In a world where interest rates are being tuoted at 7 percent in the US and global warming may crater profit margins of some economies this company has show a profit in a foreign land.
how does one create a model for this comapny without the imput of women.
Glassons is a womens clothing rag shop and does this say that women perfer looking good over food?
Apparently women in Kiev used to buy clothes and makeup before food... a common joke for women in Kiev.
These days its clohting for fighting in that is the big fashion hit this month on the front line.
Has MR B a hidden talent for picking the tastes of australian women's shopping when he is not a regular visitor to the melbourne cup!!!
what ever the reason for this forecast its certainly against the over all trend world wide.
Has President XI had a secret meeting with the prime minister of australia and told him that hes under huge pressure to somehow increase the supply of Australian wines to the parched throats of the middle classes in china.
Will tjhe problem with exports to china been resolved in a back room meeting leading to a yet to be forecast increase in Kanga GDP?
Its all going to be a nail bitter thats for sure....
December 15th we'll get an update on sales ....along the lines of 'sales for first 19 weeks of FY23 were x% up on pcp'
Don't think X will be as high as 68% they printed for the first 8 weeks
But X will be pretty high I reckon ...giving the market the confidence in actually believe F23 is going to be a ginormous year profit wise.
Rest of ASM will be boring as ...probably even worse than last year when Warren clearly didn't want to be there.
No X won't be 68% because during the first 8 weeks of the year in the previous corresponding period there were widespread lockdowns on both sides of the Tasman whereas in early November 2021 the lockdown prison sentences ended so the last 5-6 weeks of the ~ 19 week comparative period will be like for like.
I am hoping for ~ 35%-40% sales increase for the period August to mid December and forecasting 24% for the full year.
ABS Australia Retail Stats for October
Headline says total sales fell 0.2% month on month seasonally adjusted- clothing etc sector fell 0.6%. Westpac says the dip was below expectations and the broad based weakening suggests that rate hikes are starting to bite
Let the statisticians and bank economists do their thing but the raw numbers were -
Clothing sector October sales were 32% higher than October last year. Annual sales to October were 25% higher than a year ago
For the HLG fiscal period Aug/Sep/Oct clothing sector sales are 58% higher than same period last year
Might need to up forecasts / expectations basil - because Glassons AU will growing faster than the market
As you know Winner I am very bullish on Glassons Au but I am of course talking group sales including Glassons N.Z. and Hallensteins, (only 4 stores in Australia).
I'm also mindful that after that dreadful 107 lockdown the wider Auckland region of ~ 1.7 million had to endure last year that ended in early November, there was a lot of pent up pressure to get out and about and spend when we were allowed back into shops again. People were desperate to get out and about mate...you had to live through that shocking lockdown to really understand what it did to people's mental health and stress level's...it was a real shocker, pretty close to a form of home detention...some very desperately needed retail therapy was badly needed for all Aucklanders last November / December.
35-40% group sales increase year to mid-December is just a guess, hopefully its somewhere around there. I certainly won't be complaining if its higher 😉
You read/hear Aussie stuff and it seems the world is coming to an end .... nobody shopping blah blah
This chart is annual retail sales in Australia over the years -- the 'Total Less Food' a proxy for discretionary spend and Clothing because I do the numbers for HLG lol
What you read/hear doesn't seem to be happening - you could even say covid has boosted retail spend quite a lot
00000ausret.JPG
Let me explain it to you mate. This song encapsulates Glassons target market. Young women that want cool inexpensive clothes that make them look cool and sexy. "They don't care" about higher interest rates, house price movements, unemployment. Huge labour shortages across all industries and they're getting paid a lot more and want to get out, have fun and do their peacocking. Its all explained in the video. We'll be alright in the recession of 2023 because the Glassons demographic don't care about recessions either. Nearly 3 years of Covid madness and the young people are completely over it and want to have fun.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UxxajLWwzqY
Could this stock actually be the only option left for growth in SP after it been forecast that NZ will have 6 quarters of no growth... 6!!!!!!!
" Young women that want cool inexpensive clothes that make them look cool "
this is actually exactly what the fashion womens underwear designer in AUS stated last week...
She said she shopped there from a teenager growing up in NZ and that was well over a decade ago... mums take their daughters there to start there fashion shopping habits she said.
Quote from: Basil on Nov 28, 2022, 05:02 PMLet me explain it to you mate. This song encapsulates Glassons target market. Young women that want cool inexpensive clothes that make them look cool and sexy. "They don't care" about higher interest rates, house price movements, unemployment. Huge labour shortages across all industries and they're getting paid a lot more and want to get out, have fun and do their peacocking. Its all explained in the video. We'll be alright in the recession of 2023 because the Glassons demographic don't care about recessions either. Nearly 3 years of Covid madness and the young people are completely over it and want to have fun.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UxxajLWwzqY
You might well be right.
Though still interesting to ponder how this is all going to end ... young people spending money they don't have and afterwards complaining bitterly about the boomer generation who worked hard and did save money in their youth and now being better off?
But hey - this is probably not the right thread for this discussion.
I'm not jumping into that can of worms with you. ;)
Nice to see my invitation to the annual meeting they are holding in person or online on 15 December arrive today. Appointed Tim Glasson or in his absence James Glasson as my proxy. 100% sure they will vote with my best interests at heart. I'm really looking forward to the meeting, (will view online and might ask a couple of questions) and year to date sales update.
HLG trade ex their 24 cent dividend on 8 December, paid 16 December.
USD weakening ..... globally
NZD should continue to strengthen ... been good the last six weeks 55 to 62
That should help HLG
Kanga inflation came in weaker ....
https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/australia-monthly-inflation-slows-october-hints-possible-peak-2022-11-30/
Quote from: winner (n) on Nov 30, 2022, 04:15 PMUSD weakening ..... globally
NZD should continue to strengthen ... been good the last six weeks 55 to 62
That should help HLG
Nicely predicted, now over 63 cents and 63 point something, if I recall correctly, is the ten year average so headwinds in regard to currency have abated nicely.
Well does this mean the headline from the reserve bank that read like amatuar hour from Super Mairo who one cant imagine say to pasta lovers "
"all you pasta lover's can only have one slice of 'Lasagne Bolognese and filled pasta like manicotti and ravioli" for XMAS!!!!
ONE SLICE!!!!
favourite at xmas in italy in the north.
well with the dollar heading back up no reason what so evere other than national debt to GDP is still pretty low KIWIS can shop till they drop this xmas....
why are they engineering a recessions again?
well all those going to the xmas drinks, oysters and other delights can spend up large!!!
Bon Appétit!
Quote from: winner (n) on Nov 21, 2022, 04:14 PMbasil .... since 2006 HLG average PE has been 12.5
So I charted actual share price v what it would be at a PE of 12.5 ..... never very away eh ...and shows the time to buy eh (as you have sussed out a few times already)
Note - the at 12.5 PE line is based on July year EPS applied to the full year (like July 20 EPS applied Jan20 to Dec 20) so a mix of past and forward looking if you get the gist
So 10 bucks not outrageous at EPS of 80 cents
0000hlgpe.JPG
While we wait to enjoy that growth, and hopefully the resulting share price gains we're being paid a fabulous forecast 10.66%* gross yield.
* I had another look at the imputation credit account balance and they have enough in there at balance date $2.7m to impute the forthcoming 16 December dividend by 50% and seeing as they chose to not impute it I am hopeful they will have enough by March 2023 to fully impute the April 2023 dividend which I am estimating at 24 cps (24 / 0.72) = 33.33 cps gross. I think this is sustainable going forward on average so we shoudl get 24 cps gross + 33.33 cps gross = 57.33 cps gross each year which should rise over the years ahead with growth but let's just stick with those figures for now. 57.33 / 562 gives a face value forecast gross yield of 10.2%
Looking forward if they can restore profitability in N.Z. operations to pre-pandemic level's there should be enough imputation credit to repeat this next year and fully impute April 2024's dividend.
For someone applying fresh capital to HLG this coming week, assuming the share price drops the full 24 cents when it goes ex dividend on 8 December, and they could buy for ($5.62 - 0.24) = $5.38 ex divvy they are looking at a
gross forecast yield of 57.33 / 538 = 10.66% Disc: I have backed the truck up but I am left still wondering if I have enough?
I wish Snoopy would join this forum. I'm planning on asking the question Snoopy is wondering about at the annual meeting. They had $2.7m in their imputation credit account at balance date so why not partially impute (about 50%) the December dividend ?
Re this imputation stuff - hope a possible reason Snoopy gives isn't true 'Yet something has happened since balance date that would suggest profits in NZ for FY2023 over the full year are going to be much less than expected'
Snoopy needs to read the annual report.
Extract from page 9 CEO's report under the heading
Outlook.
We have seen trading improve in both New Zealand and Australia.
Extract from page 6 of same report referring to Glassons N.Z.
"There have been improvements as we have moved into the new financial year"
Referring to Hallensteins he said on page 6
We have seen growth from both New Zealand and Australia
Extract from Page 5 Chariman's report under the heading
Future Outlook
"The first 8 weeks of the new financial year have seen group sales improve by 68.49%"
Since warning about currency headwinds in the annual report the $Kiwi is up from 55.5 to 64 cents US, a 15% improvement.
Its a nail bitter for sure.....
comentary in the NZ H news paper suggest the reserve bank will get the recession wrong... but arnt they going to engineer this recession anyway?
it the farce in wellington spreading from building to building?
lets hope there is economy left after they kick the guts out of it.....
what are they drinking down there in the water.... oh we know they forgot to invest in the pipes and seas water has got into the drinking water....
salt on the brain?
https://www.deccanherald.com/science-and-environment/decoded-how-salt-affects-blood-flow-in-brain-cause-alzheimers-1050947.html
lets hope that ICA account has got something in it.....
sniff that ICA ....
Good morning folks,
Firstly, thank you for your hard work navigating through the challenges presented in recent times with Covid. It can't of been easy to handle all the challenges so the whole team's efforts are really appreciated by shareholders.
You may be aware that shareholders sometimes discuss HLG on www.stocktalk.co.nz, (my user handle Basil) and www.sharetrader.co.nz.
I met up with quite a few of these forum participants yesterday for a few drinks and the question came up as to why there are no imputation credits with the forthcoming dividend ?
I'm a semi retired professional investor and accountant so I will understand any technical talk about movements in the imputation credit account (ICA) post balance date and get it that Australian tax paid is not credited to the ICA.
From my review of the financials the ICA had a balance of $2.7m as at balance date but there was taxation receivable of $572K showing in the balance sheet which would have reduced the ICA to just over $2.1m + any provisional tax paid since then.
Wondering why the forthcoming dividend wasn't partially imputed.
Second question. Can shareholders assume given the December 2022 dividend is not imputed and its too late to change that, the April 2023 dividend be imputed as much as possible?
Keep up your good work which is really appreciated.
Thanks in advance for your time in answering these questions.
Kind regards
XXXXXXXXXX
Many thanks indeed to Stuart the CEO of HLG for his time explaining this to me. He explained that the figure shown above was a net group figure, an amalgam of N.Z. and Australian tax and that the N.Z. refund receivable was higher and therefore reduced the imputation account further. From his response I am 100% confident they will impute future dividends as much as possible with shareholders best interests always at heart.
Thanks for sharing Basil. There is usually a logical reason.
I looked at the HLG investor centre and nzx announcements for dividends. I don't see any mention of having or not having a dividend reinvestment plan. Am I correct in assuming this means HLG does not have one? Cheers.
Quote from: SuperMario on Dec 07, 2022, 11:29 PMI looked at the HLG investor centre and nzx announcements for dividends. I don't see any mention of having or not having a dividend reinvestment plan. Am I correct in assuming this means HLG does not have one? Cheers.
That is correct. There is no dividend reinvestment plan at the moment. You have to do it manually.
I think its really impressive they have grown Glassons Australia so strongly over the last 5 years with no capital raises, no debt whatsoever, no dividend reinvestment program and all the time paying out really strong dividends. A lot to admire and respect with how they go about doing the business.
Disc: My #1 investment position.
Its going to be an historic call one way or the other.....
Quote from: Ferg on Dec 07, 2022, 11:42 PMThat is correct. There is no dividend reinvestment plan at the moment. You have to do it manually.
To the best of my knowledge there never has been one. I can't help wondering how many others will run their own dividend reinvestment scheme when its paid out on 16 December. I'm really looking forward to the annual meeting update on 15 December.
NZ Card Spend for November out today from Stats NZ
Apparel sales for this November up 8.2% on last year. Annual sales to November up 10.2%
HLG year to date is August/November - sales for the four months up 48% on last year .... yes 46%
Things rocking in apparel - even in NZ
With those sort of numbers prob need to increase my expectations for full year
Next weeks update will be exciting .... so good they might even do something unusual and come up with profit guidance
My key forecasts for FY23, Sales up 24% from $351m to $435m.
Gross profit margin unchanged at 57.5%
Gross profit up from $202m to $251m
Expenses up broadly in line with inflation at 7% + a bit more for extra stores in Australia and a bit more overhead for the growth in the group.
Net profit after tax up from $25.6m to $48m
eps up from 43 cps to 80 cps.
It's hard to say what year to date sales growth will be they update that next week because the previous announcement of 68% covered an 8 week period of hard lockdowns in parts of N.Z. in Australia in the previous corresponding period that didn't repeat this year and those lockdowns finished in early November last period, but all known things considered, somewhere about 35-40% sales growth for the first 4 months means we're on track for my annual forecast.
If it's less than this I will have to do a revised forecast, if its more I will leave my forecast as it is.
Disclaimer - All forecasts "at best" are an educated best guess assessment of all known factors and the actual result could vary materially for a wide range of potential reasons.
Your forecast Ok
That 68% increase in first part of year was worth $30m extra sales
That's about $10m more profit than pcp so much more to go to get to your 48m
Now please remeber the RBNZ (reserved bank of nowhere zeees land) has said no buying this xmas...
NO PAYING me keep your wallets closed... no buying HLG shares cause there arnt that many to go round if the forecasts are as predicted by local hounds and everyone needs to buy more.....
Gosh, more than $9 million after tax due to be credited to shareholders accounts next Friday, the day after Annual Meeting update. Wonder how many millions of that gets reinvested back into HLG shares ? Have to be quick if you want to "hound-up" some more shares at bargain prices.
Quote from: Basil on Dec 09, 2022, 04:22 PMGosh, more than $9 million after tax due to be credited to shareholders accounts next Friday, the day after Annual Meeting update. Wonder how many millions of that gets reinvested back into HLG shares ? Have to be quick if you want to "hound-up" some more shares at bargain prices.
Surely best way is to pre-empt this reinvestment and do it before the meeting .... like borrowing from youelf and paying it back with the actual divie.
And after 'First 19 weeks sales are up 35% on pcp' (or maybe a little less) the share price will shoot up ... maybe quite a way over 6 bucks
You'll get more shares from you dividend if you do this ... cost you plenty if you wait
Quote from: Basil on Dec 04, 2022, 09:08 PMI wish Snoopy would join this forum. I'm planning on asking the question Snoopy is wondering about at the annual meeting. They had $2.7m in their imputation credit account at balance date so why not partially impute (about 50%) the December dividend ?
Herr von Schnoopy will not be joining this forum. I have seen to that!
RB
the thing is.... the SP has always been a serial under performer....
now if it was in the nifty 50 maybe it would perform but it always get beaten to the punchbowl..
Quote from: Basil on Dec 07, 2022, 11:30 AMI met up with quite a few of these forum participants yesterday for a few drinks and the question came up as to why there are no imputation credits with the forthcoming dividend?
From my review of the financials the ICA had a balance of $2.7m as at balance date but there was taxation receivable of $572K showing in the balance sheet which would have reduced the ICA to just over $2.1m + any provisional tax paid since then.
Wondering why the forthcoming dividend wasn't partially imputed.
Second question. Can shareholders assume given the December 2022 dividend is not imputed and its too late to change that, the April 2023 dividend be imputed as much as possible?
Many thanks indeed to Stuart the CEO of HLG for his time explaining this to me. He explained that the figure shown above was a net group figure, an amalgam of N.Z. and Australian tax and that the N.Z. refund receivable was higher and therefore reduced the imputation account further. From his response I am 100% confident they will impute future dividends as much as possible with shareholders best interests always at heart.
We are looking at the balance sheet in the 2022 annual report?
I see there is an entry there under 'Current Assets' that says there is $0.572m of tax receivable. Stuart says that figure is an amalgam of NZ and Australian tax and that the NZ receivable is much higher. But if the NZ tax receivable is much higher, does not that mean:
.... the performance of the NZ business....
... is much worse than that reflected in the provisional tax payments paid up to now....
....those payments that created that positive 'imputation credit balance' in the first place ??!? (note 6.3 in the annual report), by the NZ business ....
... and so necessitating a large tax refund)?
?How can that be good news?!???
Does not this mean that my flea ridden mangey Sopwith Camel flying mutt nemesis that said
"Something has happened since balance date that would suggest profits in NZ for FY2023 over the full year are going to be much less than expected. Thus, come the square up of tax time at the end of the year, much of the provisional tax paid up to will be entitled to be refunded, thus reversing the 'positive imputation balance' that is in the NZ tax imputation account now."
was right?
RB
well you never know
some reports in the annual report actually have missing subtotals.....
.......
Quote from: Basil on Dec 05, 2022, 12:36 PMSnoopy needs to read the 2022 annual report.
Extract from page 9 CEO's report under the heading
Outlook.
We have seen trading improve in both New Zealand and Australia.
Extract from page 6 of same report referring to Glassons N.Z.
"There have been improvements as we have moved into the new financial year"
Referring to Hallensteins he said on page 6
We have seen growth from both New Zealand and Australia[/i]
Extract from Page 5 Chariman's report under the heading
Future Outlook
"The first 8 weeks of the new financial year have seen group sales improve by 68.49%"
Since warning about currency headwinds in the annual report the $Kiwi is up from 55.5 to 64 cents US, a 15% improvement.
Welcome to the forum Red Baron / Snow Leopard. Thank you for disturbing me from watching SWAT on Netflix, I was bored with it anyway.
I've had another look at the imputation account figures and Stuart Duncan's full reply and crunched the numbers on this in light of what he said they'd done with 2022 provisional tax and what the N.Z. profitability was for FY22, (noting the significant change in profitability for N.Z. operations between FY21 and FY22 in the accounts at note 2.1 segment information, pages 32 and 33 of the annual report).
My calculations show that at this point in time the ICA is in credit by just on $700K. Having now crunched those numbers through I can see why they didn't bother partially imputing next week's dividend as to fully impute it would take a $5.57m credit and a 12% imputation level is barely worth bothering with.
People need to understand that movements in the ICA account are solely to do with historical issues around Covid and the significant change in the level of profitability of N.Z. operations in FY22 relative to FY21, (FY22's provisional tax first two installments were based on FY21's profit plus the standard uplift of 5%, also known as "Safe Harbour". (Sorry for the professional / technical lingo).
Nothing whatsoever can be inferred about the balance of this account as it currently stands per my calculations above in regard to FY23's trading or profit.
Subsequent company statements as highlighted above in purple from my post earlier this week clearly show improvements in both New Zealand and Australian operations year to date in FY23 as compared to FY22.
They will need to start paying FY23 provisional tax before the next dividend in April and I expect it will be imputed as much as possible.
If they can restore N.Z. operations in due course, (may not be in FY23) to the same level of profitability as FY21 they should have approx. $6.5m per annum in imputation credits which is enough to impute 48 cents per annum of annual dividends to a 58% level of imputation credits or just on 11 cps. 48 cents in divvies plus 11 cps in imputation cents = 59 cents per share and on a closing share price today of $5.40 would give an indicative forward yield of 59 / 540 = 10.9% per annum. Can they restore N.Z. profitability to FY21 level's and how long will that take ? We will have to wait and see.
I am sticking with my group forecast stated earlier today (post #134) which may be revised after the annual meeting update next Thursday.
Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 09, 2022, 11:22 AMNZ Card Spend for November out today from Stats NZ
Apparel sales for this November up 8.2% on last year. Annual sales to November up 10.2%
HLG year to date is August/November - sales for the four months up 48% on last year .... yes 46%
Things rocking in apparel - even in NZ
With those sort of numbers prob need to increase my expectations for full year
Next weeks update will be exciting .... so good they might even do something unusual and come up with profit guidance
Hi winner, are you referring to this report https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/electronic-card-transactions-november-2022/ ?
How did you calculate apparel spending was up 8.2% ?
I couldn't find it stated anywhere so worked it out from the above 2022 report and last years report https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/electronic-card-transactions-november-2021/
- Apparel spending in November 2021: 119+119/0.53 = 343.528301887
- Apparel spending in November 2022: 2.8+2.8/0.008 = 352.8
- Percentage change: ((343.528301887 - 352.8 )/343.528301887) * -100 = 2.69896193765%
Quote from: SuperMario on Dec 10, 2022, 12:08 AMHi winner, are you referring to this report https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/electronic-card-transactions-november-2022/ ?
How did you calculate apparel spending was up 8.2% ?
I couldn't find it stated anywhere so worked it out from the above 2022 report and last years report https://www.stats.govt.nz/information-releases/electronic-card-transactions-november-2021/
- Apparel spending in November 2021: 119+119/0.53 = 343.528301887
- Apparel spending in November 2022: 2.8+2.8/0.008 = 352.8
- Percentage change: ((343.528301887 - 352.8 )/343.528301887) * -100 = 2.69896193765%
The .xls spreadsheet that opens use Sheet Table 1 is Electronic card transactions by industry – actual monthly values(1)
Says Nov 22 Apparel sales 394 and Nov 21 as 364
Don't even need to calculate the Percentage change from same month of previous year(6)
as Stats NZ do it for you - its in Cell J56 -
8.2%Pretty good growth eh
just when we though we could kick back and relax ....
lucky its raining....
well have to take notice of these posts ....
ICA accounts are for pros who have done their Tax unit and had years of practise.
INZCompanyImputationYTD Interface
methods ect to calcuate....
! YET to be implemented
https://www.ird.govt.nz/income-tax/income-tax-for-businesses-and-organisations/income-tax-for-companies/imputation-for-companies/how-imputation-credits-work/imputation-credit-accounts
I could be wrong but I think that companies also have to use the same imputation % for all dividends in a year.
Quote from: Basil on Dec 09, 2022, 10:36 PM
I've had another look at the imputation account figures and Stuart Duncan's full reply and crunched the numbers on this in light of what he said they'd done with 2022 provisional tax and what the N.Z. profitability was for FY22, (noting the significant change in profitability for N.Z. operations between FY21 and FY22 in the accounts at note 2.1 segment information, pages 32 and 33 of the annual report).
OK I see that. From section 2.1 'segment information':
Profits over 2021 for Glassons NZ ($11.553m) plus Hallensteins ($4.818m) add to $16.371m
Profits over 2022 for Glassons NZ ($4.079m) plus Hallensteins ($2.092m) add to $6.171m
That means that if provisional tax was paid for the 2022 year, based on the earnings from 2021, much more provisional tax will have been paid compared to the ultimate tax bill owed.
It also means that in 2023 in New Zealand, assuming a recovery, the provisional tax paid for 2023, based on earnings from 2022, will grossly underfund the ultimate tax bill owed for 2023. This is the situation we find ourselves in now.
Stuart has told us that the 'tax refund' of $0.572m at 2022 balance date,, is actually higher than that when we look at NZ component only. This is because that recorded 'refund' of $0.572m is sum, where the New Zealand refund has been offset against a tax payment due in Australia (?). Is it likely that the 'NZ tax refund component' has been reassigned to the 2023 accounting year, to offset the underpayment in provisional tax that is becoming apparent for 2023?
Quote from: Basil on Dec 09, 2022, 10:36 PMPeople need to understand that movements in the ICA account are solely to do with historical issues around Covid and the significant change in the level of profitability of N.Z. operations in FY22 relative to FY21, (FY22's provisional tax first two installments were based on FY21's profit plus the standard uplift of 5%, also known as "Safe Harbour". (Sorry for the professional / technical lingo).
And these 'historical issues' are broadly as I have described above?
Quote from: Basil on Dec 09, 2022, 10:36 PMNothing whatsoever can be inferred about the balance of this account as it currently stands per my calculations above in regard to FY23's trading or profit.
They will need to start paying FY23 provisional tax before the next dividend in April and I expect it will be imputed as much as possible.
I don't understand this comment. It implies they are not paying provisional tax for FY2023 already, which surely they are (even if not at a rate that covers expected 2023 profits).
RB
Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 09, 2022, 04:43 PMSurely best way is to pre-empt this reinvestment and do it before the meeting .... like borrowing from youelf and paying it back with the actual divie.
And after 'First 19 weeks sales are up 35% on pcp' (or maybe a little less) the share price will shoot up ... maybe quite a way over 6 bucks
You'll get more shares from you dividend if you do this ... cost you plenty if you wait
Just trying to remember - wasn't there something our friend KW told us about buying shares in a downtrend?
Most people might like to spare themselves a lot of technical discussion and simply read the highlighted purple bits.Quote from: Red Baron on Dec 10, 2022, 10:27 AMOK I see that. From section 2.1 'segment information':
Profits over 2021 for Glassons NZ ($11.553m) plus Hallensteins ($4.818m) add to $16.371m
Profits over 2022 for Glassons NZ ($4.079m) plus Hallensteins ($2.092m) add to $6.171m
That means that if provisional tax was paid for the 2022 year, based on the earnings from 2021, much more provisional tax will have been paid compared to the ultimate tax bill owed. Correct, they paid installments one and two and didn't need to pay installment three.
It also means that in 2023 in New Zealand, assuming a recovery, the provisional tax paid for 2023, based on earnings from 2022, will grossly underfund the ultimate tax bill owed for 2023. This is the situation we find ourselves in now. Their balance date is August. By February 2023 they usually update the market with their expected profit for the first half. This will give them and us a useful handle on forecasting N.Z. profit for FY23 and I think its almost certain they will need to use an alternative to the safe harbour (standard last year + 5%) provisional tax methodology to minimize use of money interest. (Probably the estimation method).
Stuart has told us that the 'tax refund' of $0.572m at 2022 balance date,, is actually higher than that when we look at NZ component only. This is because that recorded 'refund' of $0.572m is sum, where the New Zealand refund has been offset against a tax payment due in Australia (?).You can't offset tax between two jurisdictions but yes the amount disclosed on the balance sheet, $572K is the sum group total of a bigger refund for N.Z. tax (my estimate $2.04m), and tax due in Australia, estimated at $1.47m Is it likely that the 'NZ tax refund component' has been reassigned to the 2023 accounting year, to offset the underpayment in provisional tax that is becoming apparent for 2023? Not sure how they treated it but based on information provided, (excluding any FY23 provisional tax that may already have been paid, Stuart did not advise on this), I estimate the ICA balance as at 30/11/2022 at just under $700K in credit
And these 'historical issues' are broadly as I have described above? Yes.
I don't understand this comment. It implies they are not paying provisional tax for FY2023 already, which surely they are (even if not at a rate that covers expected 2023 profits).
RB
It's a nonstandard balance date, (August) so provisional tax payment dates will be very different to what you, I and others are used too. I don't have any clients with an August balance date but assuming everything is pushed back by 5 months from standard 31 March balance date that would suggest the first installment of FY23 prov tax is due by 28 January 2023 and its unlikely there will be another one due before 31 March. I assume their ICA account has to be in credit by balance date instead of 31 March each year.
Its easy to get lost in all this technical stuff, all most people on here will want to know is this...
I am 100% confident that the April 2023 dividend will be imputed as much as possible. I'd rather channel my energy into as accurately as possible forecasting FY23 earnings per share as more information comes to hand at the annual meeting and then with the February 2023 half year forecast and then again with the half year financial statements in late March 2023. With these March financials we should be able to get a good handle on the expected N.Z. trading performance for the year (without all the Covid shutdown complications of FY22) and this will be a very useful guide in determining in the medium term the extent to which future dividends may be able to be imputed.
If they get anywhere near my forecasted 80 cps in FY23 there is clear upside to my forecasted dividends for FY23 of 48 cps. Obviously, all shareholders are hoping that N.Z. trading recovers nicely so that future dividends can be imputed as much as possible. I can't imagine anyone likes seeing 33% of their dividend being withheld and going to the IRD. I'm going to move on from the imputation issue now and focus on what really matters. Growth in earnings. Really looking forward to the annual meeting on Thursday and update on trading conditions to date in FY23.
Friday's dividend will also be a real highlight next week.
Quote from: BlackPeter on Dec 10, 2022, 11:01 AMJust trying to remember - wasn't there something our friend KW told us about buying shares in a downtrend?
I see an uptrend from late September
Even the 100M seems to be heading up (slightly)
So maybe we should be BUYING
On the TA front its clear the share price has built a very solid base in the low $5 range over the last 6 months and is up over the 100 day moving average even after going ex a 24 cent dividend this week. When fundamentally something is a STRONG BUY and there's TA support as well, I don't muck around any more, I really open my shoulders and get stuck in because I have learned that's when you make the really serious money.
Next weeks announcement-
'The first 19 weeks of the new financial year have seen Group sales up 39.24% on the prior year'
That's about $40m more sales than prior year (in 19 weeks) and that's probably about $18m profit before tax - all in 19 weeks
And chart looking good
Next week going to be exciting
Quote from: Basil on Dec 10, 2022, 03:03 PMOn the TA front its clear the share price has built a very solid base in the low $5 range over the last 6 months and is up over the 100 day moving average even after going ex a 24 cent dividend this week. When fundamentally something is a STRONG BUY and there's TA support as well, I don't muck around any more, I really open my shoulders and get stuck in because I have learned that's when you make the really serious money.
So - where do you see them going?
Quote from: winner (n) on Nov 21, 2022, 04:14 PMbasil .... since 2006 HLG average PE has been 12.5
So I charted actual share price v what it would be at a PE of 12.5 ..... never very away eh ...and shows the time to buy eh (as you have sussed out a few times already)
Note - the at 12.5 PE line is based on July year EPS applied to the full year (like July 20 EPS applied Jan20 to Dec 20) so a mix of past and forward looking if you get the gist
So 10 bucks not outrageous at EPS of 80 cents
[url="https://stocktalk.co.nz/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=410;type=preview;file"]0000hlgpe.JPG[/url]
Just for you BP. Truly extraordinary how closely the share price has tracked 12.5 times earnings over the years.
When you buy a share of HLG look at the deep history you're buying into:- From their website
QuoteHallenstein Glasson Holdings Limited is a retailer of menswear and womenswear, listed on the New Zealand Stock Exchange.
The company operates in excess of 130 stores, with 36 stores in Australia.
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Limited was formed in 1985 on the merger of Hallenstein Brothers - an iconic menswear retailer first established in 1873, and Glassons - a fashion retailer founded in the early 1900's.
Hallenstein Glasson is recognised as New Zealand's leading specialty retailer, and is now making an impact in the Australian market.
Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 10, 2022, 03:28 PMNext weeks announcement-
'The first 19 weeks of the new financial year have seen Group sales up 39.24% on the prior year'
That's about $40m more sales than prior year (in 19 weeks) and that's probably about $18m profit before tax - all in 19 weeks
And chart looking good
Next week going to be exciting
At this stage I have no clue whatsoever how I am going to hold myself back from buying truck loads more if sales are up more than that...which I reckon is a very real chance.
Could the likes of HLG and TRA, EBO be the only growth retail stocks on the NZX?
market hates MHJ no matter what it does and the crims love it.
If this war goes on and on with no end in sight then the NZX could go no where and become soley a traders market with only a few stocks showing growth prospects.
its doubtful there is any business leadership from CGVT. Market becomes rudderless.
worst start to summer ever wont be helping KMD local sales for sure.
God has handed down the verdict...La Nina..Swimming is the best sport for this summer so far.
off for another 4 K today....bon voyage
Plenty of peacocking going on at Glassons Lambton Quay today .......very busy in store and some were buying
And even a few hunky guys in Hallensteins part of store.
Just anecdotal stuff but remember when the 'anecdotes and the data disagree, the anecdotes are usually right' .....so HGH sales going well.
Hallensteins as a brand that seems to be in terminal decline and Glassons not fairing particularly well in NZ either. Fortunately for HLG, Glassons in AU for the moment are at the top of their game. But if you look at the weighting of stores and start to think through the impacts of operational leverage, a less rosy picture becomes apparent. By sheer virtue of the lockdowns last year will FY23 look like a positive year, driven overwhelmingly by a positive 1H. But NZ is looking grim, and AU in FY24 doesn't look particularly promising
More to it than that. Sales for the first 8 weeks of FY23 were up 50% on pre-pandemic level's so much more to it than a bounceback from lockdowns last year. We might see some store rationalization with Glassons N.Z. and Hollensteins in the years ahead. These are mature brands in N.Z. and the retail footprint is fulsome.
Fortunately, the Australian market is ~ 6 times the size of ours and Australian women think the brand is fresh and cool. Target market don't generally have mortgages and just want to get out and about and look cool, AKA peacocking. Strong growth with an exceptionally long runway for Glassons Au.
I remember when this and WHS were being barked up aggressively, which I looked at and ignored, but did opt to invest into Universal Store on the ASX (which I disclosed on ST'r). Bought half a yard on 21 June at A$3.5, which I had talked to on the retail and HLG threads. Now up 47% in constant currency and before dividends. Compares to HLG up 4.8% and WHS down 13%.
Glassons has a good, long term future ahead of it, but in the short to medium term (FY24-25 etc), highly uncertain. Womenswear is hard work and higher risk than menswear, in any event. I personally think FY24 will be a tough year and I fully expect both SP to increase this year before hitting more turbulent times next year (IE yes, including I reckon UNI will fall....I'm not prone to bark up a share I own even if others are). But I am pleased I did my own work and I hope everyone does their own work, rather back up the truck based on some barking.
FT.com reports UK fashion retailer 'Monsoon to open more stores as it defies retail gloom'
Seems plenty of 'peacocking' post covid blues etc going on over in the UK as well
Going to be an interesting and compelling watch between now and whenever to track Winners Earnings vs sp graph towards $10. Can't argue with that trend. But we have to be 'well positioned' if we want to enjoy the fruits methinks. Discl. - well positioned.
Doubt whether they'll say much at the ASM but the important part of the F23 outlook in the results announcement was 'There have also been increases in operating costs due to inflationary pressure.'
Need to keep those costs under control - not just inflationary pressures but from the umwinding of corporate welfare / rent relief that had favourable impacts on F21 and F22
Wouldn't want to see another year of expenses increasing faster than sales would we
Hey FM - that was an inspired punt on UNI when the share price got beaten up eh. Interesting company. Well done and probably head back over 8 bucks again.
Their current success (growth) is based on 'peacocking' eh - although they use terms like 'embrace the re-emergence of festivals and large gatherings' and 'ongoing ramp-up social occasions'
I reckon the HLG ASM presos will have the same tone as the recent UNI ones - and as the UNI share price heads to 8 bucks the HLG share price will be headng to 10 bucks
Good that the UNI acquisitions seem to be working .... hope F24 doesn't stuff them up
I'm now primarily investing for retirement income FM. I have no interest in an Australian retailer paying an unimputed dividend of only 4% which I note is on a PE of 17 and a fairly new company with not a lot of dividend history.
5 Years ago before Glassons Au growth shifted into high gear HLG had a 16 year average annual dividends of 31 cps. Last year in what was surely a new baseline they paid 42 cps, (had been higher before a really tough FY22). I think we're looking at forming a new annual average dividend payout range in the very high forties which is a huge improvement on where the business was 5 years ago, (48 / 31 = 55% increase in income) driven by online sales quintupling over the last 5 years and Glassons Au sales tripling.
I don't pretend to have the special insights you appear to tout around your alleged ability to forecast FY24 and FY25 already but yes I do expect that growth in the next 5 years will not be in a straight line. I remain very confident that 5 years from now, (and uniquely for a growth company we're being paid a 10+% yield while we wait to enjoy that growth) we will be talking about a company paying substantially more than annual dividends in the late 40 cent range, possibly increasing by another 55% to somewhere in the mid 70 cents per annum average annual dividends. I have no present idea how I will spend all that extra income, but I am sure I will think of something. That's my focus now, growing retirement income.
I did okay on WHS with a ~ 35% gain calling the bottom and selling my stake to Nick at the top, (and very clearly calling the top) and a dividend or two along the way as well.
Quote from: Basil on Dec 12, 2022, 10:46 AMI'm now primarily investing for retirement income FM. I have no interest in an Australian retailer paying an unimputed dividend of only 4% which I note is on a PE of 17 and a fairly new company with not a lot of dividend history.
5 Years ago before Glassons Au growth shifted into high gear HLG had a 16 year average annual dividends of 31 cps. Last year in what was surely a new baseline they paid 42 cps, (had been higher before a really tough FY22). I think we're looking at forming a new annual average dividend payout range in the very high forties which is a huge improvement on where the business was 5 years ago, (48 / 31 = 55% increase in income) driven by online sales quintupling over the last 5 years and Glassons Au sales tripling.
I don't pretend to have the special insights you appear to tout around your alleged ability to forecast FY24 and FY25 already but yes I do expect that growth in the next 5 years will not be in a straight line. I remain very confident that 5 years from now, (and uniquely for a growth company we're being paid a 10+% yield while we wait to enjoy that growth) we will be talking about a company paying substantially more than annual dividends in the late 40 cent range, possibly increasing by another 55% to somewhere in the mod 70 cents per annum average annual dividends. I have no present idea how I will spend all that extra income, but I am sure I will think of something. That's my focus, growing retirement income.
I did okay on WHS with a ~ 35% gain calling the bottom and selling my stake to Nick at the top, (and very clearly calling the top) and a dividend or two along the way as well.
I am fascinated by the idea of a market being always right and at the same time getting it so wrong.
Clearly - if this stock sustainably delivers the 10% yield you are talking about plus guaranteed capital appreciation and never ending growth, than the market got it wrong.
Just wondering - are there potentially as well substantial risks which the market might price in and you don't?
Market pricing in a bad recession in CY2023 based on a range of factors including to mention a few, higher interest rates, falling housing market and sustained inflation. My core thesis is that with a very strong labour market young people, (HLG's demographic), will keep spending on social experiences and will want to look good doing it. Let's see what the HLG team have to say on Thursday.
The best guide we have to the future is the recent past so we'll know more later this week. The second best guide to the future is their track record over the last 5 years and there's a lot to like in there. I am not suggesting that anything is guaranteed, there are always risks but there are also some potentially very lucrative rewards and on the balance of probabilities this looks like a very attractive entry point to me. If you want "guaranteed" Government guaranteed Kiwibonds are now paying 4.25%.
Share price is determined by supply and demand as we all know. I do note that the 18th largest holder disclosed on page 67 of the annual report is a deceased estate so while this is speculative, it's quite possible that estate could have been selling down as there seems to be a steady supply of 10,000 share blocks coming onto the market in recent weeks. Has this been temporarily suppressing the share price? I don't know, it's merely an observation.
There could be a new top 20 shareholder in next years annual report 😉
Surprised to see SP close at $5.25 - down 15c. Buy opportunity or is the market worried about what may be in the wind for Thursday?
Maybe buyers are simply waiting for more detail on how this year's sales are tracking, I am.
VWAP today of just over $5.30 wasn't much different to last Friday and the market overall was down 0.8%.
$9.5m net after tax gets paid to shareholders this Friday.
I am wondering if we get a good solid sales update on Thursday how much of that makes its way back into buying more HLG shares ?
Quote from: LoungeLizard on Dec 12, 2022, 05:27 PMSurprised to see SP close at $5.25 - down 15c. Buy opportunity or is the market worried about what may be in the wind for Thursday?
Very light trading as usual for HLG
Aussie consumers still spending ...more than expected
From Westpac IQ:
The Westpac Card Tracker Index lifted strongly over the two weeks to Dec 3, jumping 10pts to 146.8.
And
The category breakdown, which is not seasonally adjusted, shows very big gains for discretionary goods, led by small-ticket consumer durables, i.e. clothing, department store items, electrical appliances, sports and toys.
Jeez, all good for HLG. That X in x% more than last year might be even more than I thought ...we'll know by how much on Thursday
...
QuoteThe category breakdown, which is not seasonally adjusted, shows very big gains for discretionary goods, led by small-ticket consumer durables, i.e. clothing, department store items, electrical appliances, sports and toys....Jeez, all good for HLG. That X in x% more than last year might be even more than I thought ...we'll know by how much on Thursday
Economists have predicted 9 of the last 2 recessions lol. Even if it does happen, young people don't care about rising interest rates, inflation and falling house prices leading to a recession. They just want to have fun and look cool doing it. Probably more than happy seeing house prices come down as it gives them a more realistic chance of owning one at some stage.
Exactly they are protected here in the south pacific and australia... they only know whats on TT and they are busy having fun or some are stuck studying wok subjects... who knows ...
did not the romans complain about the young generation...
Quote from: Basil on Dec 12, 2022, 11:52 AM...
The best guide we have to the future is the recent past
...
You like to state this phrase. Not sure, though whether it is right.
The best guide we have to the future is assuming that established patterns might continue, as long as the macro environment does not change. If it does (and it normally does), we are all on high sea without guide ...
Say we find out that customers don't like this years selection (I don't ;) or some competitor offers something better ...- and your best guess goes already down the drain.
Say food prices keep rising and young people find out that they can't eat clothes ...
Say young people want to use the lowered house prices to buy their first home and the banker frowns at the credit card statement featuring this huge HLG bill ...
But even if you are right and the recent past might be in this case our best guide into the future ... HLG share price dropped in the last 12 months by 34%. Just lets hope this trend does not continue, shall we?
Look, I have no idea what will happen over the next year with HLG (and neither have you ;) ), but just wondering whether it might make sense to point as well to the risks and uncertainties ... buying into HLG might go well, but it is just another gamble with significant risks attached - at least is this what the market assumes.
Glassons is a teen shopping sensation says a women clothes designer from NZ who has lived overseas for the last decade.
Glassons auss the shops that will drive this share price and it is often on parents money..
have been making enquiries for several weeks with her and she see no drop off in AUS in her sales of women under wear.
I get what you are saying BP regarding how macro-risks and wild-card events can throw all predictions out the window. I think we all know the inherent risks in investing which is why most of us spread the risk over different sectors and classes of assets, including holding a reasonable dollop of cash. I'm holding 50% in term deposits now, as I still think there's a significant risk, particularly in the US, of increasing yields provoking a further move away from equities.
It's good though that many of the experienced investors are willing to share their analysis and give their reasons why they prefer one stock over the other. And at the end of the day though, we all have to - or should -do our own homework and make our own decisions.
One thing we should remember - this century in total (nominal basis) on an annual basis retail sales in NZ have never gone backwards (negative growth)
Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 13, 2022, 02:16 PMOne thing we should remember - this century in total (nominal basis) on an annual basis retail sales in NZ have never gone backwards (negative growth)
And going back to 1982 retail sales in Australia have never gone backwards/declined either (on an annual basis)
Doesn't mean that HLG sales won't go backwards but things do look pretty rosy for them at the moment .... and probably doing better than overall retail
That's a good sign
Lot of noise around HLG on this thread
Whenever there is too much noise around, we often have a hard time seeing the bigger picture; but when the layers are beautifully formed clarity can be found.
Just like how this photo shows us the effect of double exposure, some times we need to distance ourselves for a while in order to better understand what's in front of us.
I did that distancing - all good on the western front for HLG
0000bird.JPG
Very cool image Winner, you'd certainly get a good view up there 8) Can't help myself reflecting. That image reminds me of the old cliche that no matter how much you try and help "some people can't see the wood for the trees"
Quote"The best guide we have to the future is the recent past" Basil
l
QuoteYou like to state this phrase. Not sure, though whether it is right. Blackpeter
In my professional capacity I have been helping clients forecast and plan ahead for the last 40 years and I have always found the recent past to be the best guide to how a client or one of my shares will perform going forward. I always factor in all known specific factors believed to affect a company / client going forward as well as a comprehensive review of macro economic factors affecting the business.
The S&P Retail index is down 32% year to date and local retail stocks here other than HLG have also generally had a tough year. My forecast for FY23 is on the record in this thread and the underlying assumptions that support my thesis.
Nobody gets forecasts right all the time. Nevertheless, I have built considerable value in my portfolio over the years doing deep thinking about a company's history, structure, management, the strength of their balance sheet, cash flow and so on and where I see them going. I also consider TA evidence as being a valuable tool.
As I've already posted extensively about HLG and why I like the risk-reward situation here at current prevailing prices I'm happy to let the companies trading update tomorrow do the talking. I'm not here to sell HLG to you or anyone else, if you don't like the company or its prospects, that's perfectly fine with me.
I'll update my forecast for FY23 in the next few days, (for those interested) and again once we have a further trading update and half year forecast in February 2023.
P.S. Possibly worth noting, (for those who are interested), my recent forecast was based on Kiwi being worth 61 cents US, presently 64.6 cents. Not worth changing my forecast for that because HLG use forward currency hedging to hedge out the risk of committed purchases so the effect of the recovering $Kiwi probably won't be felt in any meaningful way until HLG commit to Autumn or more likely, winter stock purchases. Nevertheless, it's worth noting the $Kiwi has recovered about 16% since the lows of September and is now worth more than the 10 year average against the $US so currency can no longer be legitimately called a headwind going forward.
Go west young man... well Kanga land is westward from NZ.
10 year average is pretty good performance and who care why long may it last and now we just need air lines tickets to come down...
Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 10, 2022, 08:22 AMThe .xls spreadsheet that opens use Sheet Table 1 is Electronic card transactions by industry – actual monthly values(1)
Says Nov 22 Apparel sales 394 and Nov 21 as 364
Don't even need to calculate the Percentage change from same month of previous year(6)
as Stats NZ do it for you - its in Cell J56 - 8.2%
Pretty good growth eh
Cheers, I had made the assumption the xls and csv would be the same just different file formats so didn't check it out :-[
Only 40 minutes to we find out what X is in sales X% higher than last year
Online Meeting here https://apps.computershare.com/MeetingsShareholderWeb/FindMeeting?Country=NZ
Quote from: Basil on Dec 15, 2022, 09:26 AMOnline Meeting here https://apps.computershare.com/MeetingsShareholderWeb/FindMeeting?Country=NZ
I hope for your sake Warren shows a bit more enthusiasm than last year ...not for moment engaged.
Maybe he's found an excuse to give it a miss
HLG usually posts market update accouncements in feb , 17th.
Winner whats your fav charting tool thats is downloadable or do you use good old Excel..
the addins for lotus were far better than for excel as you could even created addins for cells for lotus 1 and the french graphic package for lotus for dos..
amazing package that one and super fast.
The french really showed how good they were at software on that one.
I dont think that product ever made it to NZ but we used it to create colorful diary production charts for farmers.. Colored sets of accounts... with a chart.
Quote from: Waltzing on Dec 15, 2022, 09:47 AMHLG usually posts market update accouncements in feb , 17th.
Winner whats your fav charting tool?
Graph paper and crayons ....or if I'm lucky felt pens
There's nothing like a beautifully created point and figure chart
Sales up 41% for the first 19 weeks. Very solid, I like it !
Noting FX and freight cost pressures easing.
Initial impressions, Looks very good to me and on track to meet my forecast previously detailed on here.
Quote from: Basil on Dec 15, 2022, 09:58 AMSales up 41% for the first 19 weeks. Very solid, I like it !
No basil ...up 41.13%
"Graph paper and crayons ....or if I'm lucky felt pens"
classic ..
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Playfair#:~:text=The%20founder%20of%20graphical%20methods,to%20show%20part%2Dwhole%20relations.
But will HLG share price respond... number of times great result nipped in to buy and ....
or will it be like MHJ BB ... total flop...
Mr B puts more runs on the board....
Update: buyers moving in...
Has Mr B hit it out of the park again...
we might have to deploy some real automation on PDF's after all....
whatch out winner crayons might be a thing of the past....
Are we going to see some FIREWORKS!!!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qNZ8XCobUUM
Quote from: Basil on Dec 15, 2022, 09:58 AMSales up 41% for the first 19 weeks. Very solid, I like it !
Noting FX and freight cost pressures easing.
Initial impressions, Looks very good to me and on track to meet my forecast previously detailed on here.
Hmm - so how do you rate the outlook?
HLG Outlook.JPG
Sounds more like a "we will be lucky if the earnings stay the same as last year" to me.
But maybe it is just confirmation bias - on both sides :) ;
Good company, but I see in the short term a larger risk for them to drop than further potential to grow.
Basil ...solid sales, things like fox and freight easing .....probably redo his numbers and maybe increase forecast profit to $50m
Peter - sees it as profit warning
Peter did mention confirmation bias lol
BP NZD moving up and CPI figures abating in the US with only OIL being the big bear in the room...
Are you a holder here?
the chart looks good and the DIV will be sustained as this little corner store has the most outstanding Dividend performance of ANY NZX company.
This stock not only has history it is HISTORY in the making...
Look like shes heading for 6.30 maybe not this year but over time.. shes undervalued even if she hits some dumps in the road...
Very impressed with the presentations by Stuart Duncan and James Glasson in particular.
Very well positioned for growth.
Some comments from the annual meeting.
Stuart
Freight cost improving but a long way to go.
Brands much stronger than ever going forward.
Growth in N.Z. this year and especially Aust
Glasson App downloads now over one million !
Hallensteins investment in digital paying dividends
Business is in great shape for the future
James
We've been through the most challenging environment last year ever seen
Exciting opportunities ahead
More resource being allocated to logistics to improve product speed to market and costs
Diversifying suppliers to drive more efficiency, potential significant upside on margin and lead time
Steady strategy to store expansion and refurbishment
Hallensteins 150 years old next year, Glassons 97 years...what an amazing history.
I think the business is very well positioned for growth. I'm leaving my forecast, previously articulated in significant detail, unchanged.
Enjoy your dividend tomorrow fellow shareholders. We are invested in a wonderfully managed company with a fabulous heritage, a very strong balance sheet, that's trading very well this year and I am confident we have a very long runway of growth ahead in Australia.
My opinion is there is no more compelling investment case on the NZX than HLG. My #1 investment position.
Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 10, 2022, 03:28 PMNext weeks announcement-
'The first 19 weeks of the new financial year have seen Group sales up 39.24% on the prior year'
That's about $40m more sales than prior year (in 19 weeks) and that's probably about $18m profit before tax - all in 19 weeks
And chart looking good
Next week going to be exciting
Posted December 10. You're a legend mate. I was thinking 35-40% but you were definitely closest to the mark. Well done !
"Glasson App downloads now over one million"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iaepXy7gv2w
well not quite... but
Hats off to those that predicted the result and acted accordingly - who dares wins eh?
It's certainly very impressive how HLG have managed to come through one of the most testing times in retail history and kept its profitability, margins and dividends intact. Bodes very well for the future I would say.
And to think we get a 24c divvy paid tomorrow and very likley at least an 18c divvy in April ;D
I am forecasting a 24 cent dividend in mid April 2023, up from 18 cps last year. (Could be even more). Let's see how we go with that prediction.
What to spend tomorrow's dividend on ? Hmmm
Quote from: Basil on Dec 15, 2022, 12:54 PMI am forecasting a 24 cent dividend in mid April 2023, up from 18 cps last year. (Could be even more). Let's see how we go with that prediction.
What to spend tomorrow's dividend on ? Hmmm
I do hope you're right on that one as well Basil. I'v backed the truck up on HLG and very glad I did!
Quote from: LoungeLizard on Dec 15, 2022, 01:02 PMI do hope you're right on that one as well Basil. I'v backed the truck up on HLG and very glad I did!
Did you watch the annual meeting ?
I thought the overall tone of the meeting was very positive and confident.
"Well positioned" is an overused phrase but is very apt for this company and I find myself also very well positioned with the size of my shareholding :)
Yes, I did, and I thought the tone of the meeting was one of cautious optimism, which is about right and exactly what you would expect from HLG management.
I would like to see HLG NZ pick themselves up a bit more, but as noted they've had more trading disruptions than Australia. If the first 19 weeks of trading are anything to go by it should be a much better result for both. It will be interesting to see how xmas and New year trading goes - despite the gloom and doom there's evidence that people are dusting off their credit cards again.
Quote from: Basil on Dec 15, 2022, 12:54 PMI am forecasting a 24 cent dividend in mid April 2023, up from 18 cps last year. (Could be even more). Let's see how we go with that prediction.
What to spend tomorrow's dividend on ? Hmmm
I'm spending it on my oldest daughter's wedding lol.
Any decent questions asked?
Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 15, 2022, 01:34 PMAny decent questions asked?
I second that - in particular, did somebody ask about imputation going forward?
Will it be one divi imputed as far as credits available and the next one zero imputation
but perhaps with max franking available ??
Welcome to the forum sideline. Imputation was covered by me extensively in conjunction with advice from Stuart Duncan, scroll back a few pages. Credit for tax paid in Australia cannot be passed through to HLG shareholders at this stage. In the long run as growth continues in Australia it would not surprise me if they sought a dual listing so that franking credits could be passed through to Australian shareholders. I think this is not one of their near term priorities.
Questions at the annual meeting Winner. Nothing much, surprised you didn't tune in.
Quote from: Basil on Dec 15, 2022, 03:01 PMWelcome to the forum sideline. Imputation was covered by me extensively in conjunction with advice from Stuart Duncan, scroll back a few pages. Credit for tax paid in Australia cannot be passed through to HLG shareholders at this stage. In the long run as growth continues in Australia it would not surprise me if they sought a dual listing so that franking credits could be passed through to Australian shareholders. I think this is not one of their near term priorities.
Questions at the annual meeting Winner. Nothing much, surprised you didn't tune in.
Mike insisted on walkies
Share price heading back to 6 bucks by Christmas and then 7 bucks at half year profit announcement when punters realise good sales growth equal booming profits
And this time next year you never know share price close to 10 bucks
I'm trying hard not to think about what the share price does. Yes, I am excited for the future of the share price but that's not why I have invested heavily in HLG.
At the end of the day I want a very comfortable retirement, and this is a classic dividend hounds stock.
The interesting thing that came out of the meeting is that they saw FY22 as, and I am quoting off my notes here, "The most challenging environment they had ever seen"
What I find fascinating is that despite that they could still pay 42 cents in dividends for the year.
To me this is highly supportive of my contention that 42 cents is the new "chart datum" (google it if you haven't heard the term before)
I think that some think you are being rather exhuberant with your call that the new 'base' for dividends is 42 cents when they have averaged about 31 cents for years
What those doubters don't grasp is that while dividends averaged those 31 cents a year HLG sales were under $300m - like growing from $200m in 2007 to $287m in 2020.
these days HLG sales are well over $400m and likely to grow solidly from there - so makes sense that dividends going forward are going be more than averageing 31 cents .... and 42 cents surely is a new base as you say
"Dual Listing "
this has been mentioned on the forums and is long over due although there is the cost and possble they are just to busy selling to bother....
after all one of reports in the FA had totals missing...
they dont have time to count the cash by the look of it....
Has MR B batted himself a TON here .... again!!!
https://www.hallensteinglasson.co.nz/content/reports/Annual%20Report.pdf
Let's walk back in history a bit 5 years ago before Glassons Au sales really took off and have a look at the 5 year comparative figures on page 4 covering the years from 2013 to 2017 inclusive.
What we had back then was a no growth N.Z. focused company meandering along with sales ebbing and flowing with the tide of the economy from one year to another turning over on average $222m per annum. (Please note I am forecasting nearly double that in FY23 ~ $435m.) Despite this they could pay an average annual dividend of 30.9 cps.
Since then we've had Glassons Au growing sales at a compound average annual rate of 26% per annum for the last five years leading to $351m turnover in FY22 despite the business experiencing "the most challenging environment they had ever seen"
I have previously forecasted annual growth in sales this year of 24% to $435m, (sales year to date for the first 19 weeks are up 41%). I will leave my forecast unchanged at this point and revise it when they update further in February 2023.
I think it should be clear after any decent level of objective analysis this is a very different business than it was 5 years ago operating at a very different scale in Australia. The prospects for further growth there, (same number of Glassons stores at 36 as N.Z.), should be readily apparent to all with their market being 5-6 times the size of ours. This suggests a very, very long runway of growth ahead for Glassons Au with their steady expansion plans.
Dividend hounds should really appreciate the very conservative and prudent way they're going about delivering on their growth ambitions, their very strong balance sheet with no debt and strong cash on hand (59 cents per share despite carrying more inventory to fuel more growth), and the disciplined way they manage your business.
It's a pleasure to watch and be part of this company. A masterclass in how to grow a business in a prudent and a very carefully managed way, while contemporaneously richly rewarding shareholders all along the way with strong and very reliable dividend payments. I'm not aware of any other company on the NZX that has such a high yield and such excellent prospects for growth in profits and dividends going forward.
QuoteHas MR B batted himself a TON here .... again!!!
We will have to wait and see my friend but I've got a TON of shares, (and I think you know I am not talking about 100 shares lol), so I'm off to a good start ;)
Although we have invested and traded in this stock for over 15 years.
The recent presentation of FA information on this forum has refocused attention on this stock.
Any benefits that may accrue are due to this well presented information and charts by B & W....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PBU_l0pP18
NBR article today mentions that Glassons are expected to expand (further?) into the USA?
(Paywalled) https://www.nbr.co.nz/retail/retail-brand-glassons-expected-to-continue-us-push-next-year/
A big step not mentioned/noticed here? (Can't see it in any of the releases either?)
Yes James Glasson spoke about that at the meeting. Sort of on the back-burner at present. Their focus at the moment is on the markets they know the best, rebuilding N.Z. and growing Australia. They are looking at a number of opportunities in Australia at present for expanding their Glassons retail footprint.
Other stuff - Online sales for Hallenstiens in Australia has been going very well and now exceeds N.Z. online sales despite them only having 4 physical stores there and 42 stores here ! WOW, that was interesting ! The new Hallensteins CEO, Rob, spoke very well and seemed to have a very good grasp of the business and key area's needing progress despite only being in the role for 2 months.
Its clear they see best use of capital as expanding the Glassons retail footprint in Australia and digital investment elsewhere. That said, store refurbishment and modernisation continues across the network.
Ongoing strong growth in Austrailia is a given in my considered view, albeit it won't be in a straight line upwards at the same pace every year but what to my mind has been deeply impressive is how Glassons Au has grown its sales and most especially its profits in the midst of a pandemic, covid lockdowns and extremely difficult freight costs and logistics. Its going to be absolutely fascinating to see the growth there in the years ahead unencumbered by such extraordinarily difficult trading conditions.
I'm interested to see how N.Z. trading recovers as that's a key to the level of imputation credits we can expect with dividends going forward. (With that I am rescinding my previous forecast of the level of imputation credits as this is simply too hard to assess at this point). On average going forward they will be partially imputed as much as possible, the extent of that partial imputation I cannot estimate with any reasonable degree of reliability at this stage but I will know a lot more once we have the divisional breakdown with the forthcoming half year financials' in late March 2023.
I think it was clear from the annual meeting that this year's year to date sales growth for the group of 41%, whilst they said both N.Z. and Australia sales have grown, Australia has grown faster.
Thanks for clarifying the USA situation Basil and thanks also for all your detailed posts on HLG.
GLH's.
great stuff from B & W...
sure evryone has read this ...
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/130770372/boom-before-the-bust-economy-grew-2-in-three-months-says-stats-nz
The more I see how much Glassons has grown over the last 5 years (particularly in Australia) the more I'm in awe of what Di Humphries did to turn Glassons around and set that new direction.
HLG wouldn't be where it is today without Di's efforts back then
Great job Di
Glad I found this forum, just wanted to say there's some great posts in this thread. Thank you! Will need to add HLG to my shopping list this Xmas.
upgraded results 17th feb ... not far away just 8 weeks...
OIl down again strong Kiwi ... and hopefully la nina gives some sunny days..
Quote from: Basil on Dec 15, 2022, 05:22 PM...
We will have to wait and see my friend but I've got a TON of shares, (and I think you know I am not talking about 100 shares lol), so I'm off to a good start ;)
Quoteton, unit of weight in the avoirdupois system equal to 2,000 pounds (907.18 kg) in the United States (the short ton) and 2,240 pounds (1,016.05 kg) in Britain (the long ton). The metric ton used in most other countries is 1,000 kg, equivalent to 2,204.6 pounds avoirdupois.
So many options, but 100?
Quote from: BlackPeter on Dec 16, 2022, 09:46 AMSo many options, but 100?
Wonder what Kane thinks when he scores a TON
It was pleasing to hear the CEO acknowledge that over the last couple of years they did have support from the government wage subsidies and rent relief from the majority of landlords
He also said they've come out of these tumultuous times stronger. It could be said that some companies like HLG have actually 'benefited' from the pandemic like I don't think their annual sales would be over $400m now if it hadn't been for it.
So pandemic been good to them and the governments and landlords have been generous to them (which boosted profits)
In return for the charity given to them I'd think it would be cool if HLG bundled up a lot of pants and dresses and things and gave them to the likes of food banks to distribute to the those who aren't so well off.
Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 16, 2022, 10:55 AMIt could be said that some companies like HLG have actually 'benefited' from the pandemic...[snip]
For sure. I know some businesses that not only benefited from the lockdown but are now going from strength to strength to unheard of turnover levels.
Had a lovely day at the beach with wife, granddaughter and new rescued dog Tony, now named, (was provisionally called Buck due to his huge size and remarkable likeness to Buck from Jack London's "Call of the Wild" movie). I am referring to the 2020 version of the movie with the very cleverly animated version of Buck but Merry Christmas, you can see the original here on youtube for free, enjoy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JoPmexwf_E0
Asked L what she wanted for Christmas, going on 13 but very mature for her age.
Happened to drop into the conversation that I own a very small part of Glassons. You should have seen her eyes light up like a Christmas Tree. Oh my goodness Granddad, do you really own some of Glassons she exclaimed with sheer delight, like I was sitting on a goldmine and they sell the coolest gear in the world. I explained that yes, in effect I own some of our local Glassons store. That started our first conversation about what shares are. Asked her again what she'd like for Christmas, oh well that's an easy choice then she said, seeing as you part own Glassons, can I please have some Glassons vouchers. What a bright young lady she's turning out to be. Next Christmas she'll probably ask me for some of my Glassons shares lol
Quote from: Basil on Dec 18, 2022, 06:56 PMHad a lovely day at the beach with wife, granddaughter and new rescued dog Tony.
Asked L what she wanted for Christmas, going on 13 but very mature for her age.
Happened to drop into the conversation that I own a very small part of Glassons. You should have seen her eyes light up like a Christmas Tree. Oh my goodness Granddad, do you really own some of Glassons she exclaimed with great delight, like I was sitting on a goldmine. I explained that yes, in effect I own some of our local Glassons store. That started our first conversation about what shares are, I know I should have started earlier. Asked her what she'd like for Christmas, oh well that's an easy choice then she said, can I please have some Glassons vouchers. What a bright young lady she's turning out to be.
Good work Basil, but you are right. You should have started your grand daughter's share education earlier. If you had done that, then the g.d. would have figured out that if she had asked for some HLG shares for Christmas, then she would be getting a Glassons voucher (via dividend) for every year for the rest of her life!
RB
Must admit it was a bit disappointing seeing 33% withholding tax coming out of Friday's unimputed dividend.
First time I can recall they've paid a dividend with no imputation credits whatsoever.
I understand what's happened with FY22's shocker year for N.Z. operations and have posted already extensively about this but nonetheless a good friend asked me this weekend a question which I won't disclose but it forced me to consider as a rough guess what level of imputation we might expect going forward.
I am hopeful we will see FY23 N.Z. profitability restored to previously enjoyed level's before FY22...not super confident but hopeful would be how I would best describe my level of confidence around this and note HLG paid N.Z. tax of $7.6m in 2018, $7.3m in 2019, $5.9M in 2020 and $6.4m in 2021.
The arithmetic average of these is $6.8m or the average of 2020 and 2021, more recent data, is $6.1m.
It takes just on $11.1m of N.Z. tax paid to fully impute annual divvies of 48 cents per share.
Looking through the level of imputation credit available at the next dividend in April because there could be some wash through effect of the state of the ICA account in terms of the modest tax paid last year in the medium term it would appear if they restore N.Z. profitability to the average level of the 4 years before FY22, they will be paying about $6.8m in tax and that will impute 48 cents of annual dividends (which is my mid level case in the near term) to the tune of about 61% of the full level (6.8 / 11.1)
Grossing up 48 cents for 61% imputation level gives 48 / 0.8292 = 57.9 cps gross dividends.
On a share price of $5.39 my forecast yield going forward is 57.9 / 539 = 10.74% gross.
This assumes N.Z. profitability can be restored in FY23 to the average level enjoyed in the previous 4 years. I would caution it could be materially different, I have less confidence around this than the very high level of confidence I have around ongoing strong growth in Australian gross sales and net profit.
That's the best as I can forecast at this point. I'll know a LOT more when I see the divisional breakdown of the half year report in late March 2023.
NZ operations will suffer for rest of financial year after the post lockdown boost in sales in first 18 weeks
Consumer confidence tumbles to lowest level on record.
https://library.westpaciq.com.au/content/dam/public/westpaciq/secure/economics/documents/nz/2022/12/Economic-Data_Q4-Consumer-confidence_bulletin_19Dec22.pdf
But then the media could be giving themselves a pat on the back for telling us that the country is stuffed ....surprisingly the 'rich' are about as gloomy as the poor
Looks like Adrian Orr's message has got through. Warren had a bit of a dig at Orr in his address, you would have liked that Winner. Even suggested Orr go and talk with the Australian central bank Governer who has been raising interest rates in 25bp increments.
Was talk during the annual meeting that an easy way to buy Christas presents is Glassons gift vouchers, so I have been a good dog this morning and done exactly that. I preferred the old way when it was paper vouchers...everything electronic and loaded onto a card these days.
The economy goes in swings and roundabouts, and I am not concerned and didn't go hard on this for a short-term play, its long-term retirement income.
One thing my late Mother often said, there's always sunshine after rain. I doubt the young ones headed out peacocking this summer will care about interest rates or house price movements, they just want to look cool and strut their stuff in cool looking affordable clothes.
Quote from: Basil on Dec 19, 2022, 10:54 AMLooks like Adrian Orr's message has got through. Warren had a bit of a dig at Orr in his address, you would have liked that Winner. Even suggested Orr go and talk with the Australian central bank Governer who has been raising interest rates in 25bp increments.
Was talk during the annual meeting that an easy way to buy Christas presents is Glassons gift vouchers, so I have been a good dog this morning and done exactly that. I preferred the old way when it was paper vouchers...everything electronic and loaded onto a card these days.
The economy goes in swings and roundabouts, and I am not concerned and didn't go hard on this for a short-term play, its long-term retirement income.
One thing my late Mother often said, there's always sunshine after rain. I doubt the young ones headed out peacocking this summer will care about interest rates or house price movements, they just want to look cool and strut their stuff in cool looking affordable clothes.
Did your Mum teach Mark Knopfler of Dire Straits to write lyrics -
One of the best is Why Worry
Why worry
There should be laughter after pain
There should be sunshine after rain
These things have always been the same
So why worry now
Why worry now
Awesome song, know it very well. Dad taught me Mathew 6 v 27
Can any one of you by worrying add a single hour to your life?
Maybe Mark Knopfler read the odd Bible verse for inspiration with his songwriting 8)
I'm cautiously optimistic inflation has peaked and people will see some relief, for example at the fuel bowser this summer.
Here's a look at the 10 year history of earnings per share (eps) dividends per share (dps) and payout ratio
Year....eps, dps, payout
2013 31.3 33.5 107%
2014 23.9 28.5 119%
2015 29.2 31.0 106%
2016 22.9 30.0 131%
2017 29.0 31.5 109%
2018 45.9 44.0 96%
2019 48.7 44.0 90%
2020 46.6 39.0 84%
2021 55.9 47.0 84%
2022 42.9 42.0 98%
Average payout ratio last decade 98%
Average payout ratio last 5 years 90%
I think its very impressive indeed that they've been able to grow Glassons Australia so strongly over the last 5 years and in spite of challenges with Covid payout 90% of earnings. Whatever the payout ratio is going forward I am sure we can rely on Tim Glassons influence on the board with his 20% stake to make sure its the right one for the company and its shareholders.
Gosh if they make 80 cps this year and payout 90% that's 72 cps in dividends, surely not :-[
'rich' are about as gloomy as the poor
the new doomsday book was sent to them... they will all be looking which country they can move to next...
they will all ringing up Mike Faye... "Get us out of here!!! please"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stasi
"Gosh if they make 80 cps this year and payout 90% that's 72 cps in dividends"
Gosh doesnt cover it....
Hallensteins closed their 4 Australian stores in 2003/2004. They said at the time " weve concluded that the Hallensteins formula, which is so successful in New Zealand, does not fit the Australian marketplace".
Suppose 20 years later they'll work that out again and close their 4 Australian stores.
Interesting never disclosed,Hallensteins Australia sales or profitability ...hmmmm
Latest foray into Australia was F17 when they opened 3 stores ......I'd say struggled so not been tempted to expand any more?
You should have told your dog to wait for his walk like I told Tony on Friday morning. There was more important things to do like listen in to the annual meeting to how successful they have been with Hallensteins online sales in Australia now exceeding online Hallensteins sales here despite 42 stores here and only 4 over there. You would also have seen the cool image of Hallensteins totally new concept store in the new mall in Invercargill and learned from Hallensteins new CEO how that's going to revitalize this iconic 150 year old brand going forward. Try and keep up, there's a good chap 😜
They obviously have strict budgets as to how much they will spend on capex, hence the very high dividend payout ratio. It's clear their focus in terms of retail footprint expansion is Glassons Au. Hallensteins will remain a digital + minimal store footprint strategy in Australia
Next year when the annual meeting is on, tell your dog, I am not going to let the tail wag the dog, you'll get your walk when I'm good and ready.
Had oysters and chips at the beach with your dividend yet ?
Its not possible .....
to fast ... and once again left holding a half empty bowl....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YMN3nZJ1RF4
Ausi dollar to the Dixie is called now for 75 by later next year...
Now that could really power up HLG AUS
if this SP stays down a buy opportunity could emerge early next year...
Good intel there basil ...but hope you haven't been seduced by the action packed videos, sexy pictures everywhere etc and only hear what you want to hear
So Hallensteins Aussie on fire, particularly online (4 times NZ is a startling performance)
Maybe that solves your problem of where have all the imputation credits gone. Hallensteins NZ losing money ...maybe quite a lot .....and any reported from Hallensteins segment is Australia profit.
It must be costing heaps to keep those 42 stores going ..... probably selling less as years go by with online success.
Hope things improve dramatically with Hallensteins and it's not all talk.
Winner they can always shut some of them....
maybe starting in hamilton central...
I would not be surprised to see some rationalization of the N.Z. store footprint in the years ahead.
By FY24 I expect Australian sales to exceed N.Z. sales and that despite just over 40 stores there incl 4 Hollensteins stores and nearly double the retail footprint here. HLG have proven that expansion digitally works with Hallensteins online sales in Australia now exceeding N.Z. online sales despite Hallensteins having 10 times the retail footprint here, (source: annual meeting comments).
As N.Z. leases come up for renewal, I am sure we will see HLG run the ruler over store performance and renewal terms in very fine detail. HLG have best of sector online sales rates and best in class stock turn. I think by year end ~ 30% of all sales will be online, up from 27.9% in FY22.
With the Australia market 5-6 times the size of N.Z. and with roughly twice the retail footprint here as over there, there is profound logic to rationalizing the N.Z. retail footprint and expanding it in Australia.
Yes basil ...store footprint could become a problem if online takeovers
Sales through stores about thecsame as four years ago ....all the growth to $350m sales come from online
And no doubt the cost of keeping all those stores is increasing
Yeah its amazing how online has grown from ~ $20m per annum 5 years ago to ~ $100m last year and Australian sales overall have tripled in the last 5 years. Shareholders have a very exciting future ahead of them with New Zealand's oldest listed company.
Feb 17th.. day of truth..
Quite right mate, the trading update and profit forecast for the first half has been released on 17 February in each of the last 3 years.
Quote from: Basil on Dec 22, 2022, 01:19 PMQuite right mate, the trading update and profit forecast for the first half has been released on 17 February in each of the last 3 years.
But you'll have to wait until late March to get the exciting bits like how much Glassons Au has grown andcwhether NZ pulling its weight.
Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 22, 2022, 01:38 PMBut you'll have to wait until late March to get the exciting bits like how much Glassons Au has grown andcwhether NZ pulling its weight.
I'm pretty relaxed about that after some very useful help provided in sniffing that out 😉
Commentary from Oz - Boxing Day sales are going to be a boomer and special mention of clothing being the big winner
"Freedom spending" they call ....spend heaps on myself etc etc
Just as well themselves managed Glassons will have plenty of stock to sell ...no empty clothes racks for them
HLG half year result looking even better
Boxing Day's sales in Australia predicted to be $3b! This is even with the weather forecast being for a minor heatwave with temperatures north of 27C in most state and territory capitals. Topped by Adelaide with a sweltering 37C. I can't see the attraction for shopping at the best of times but in that heat? Good luck to HLG - I guess swim wear will be popular.
Quote from: Hectorplains on Dec 26, 2022, 02:49 PMBoxing Day's sales in Australia predicted to be $3b! This is even with the weather forecast being for a minor heatwave with temperatures north of 27C in most state and territory capitals. Topped by Adelaide with a sweltering 37C. I can't see the attraction for shopping at the best of times but in that heat? Good luck to HLG - I guess swim wear will be popular.
It's a good place to be the shopping mall in Australia on a hot day with the aircon
winner() its better than being eaten by sharks at the beach!!!
remember last year when reports of fishing trips in BOP inlets were attacks by young great whites...
what ever the reason for shopping it may be that AUS saves the NZ retailers from a dire winter...
keep the some cash for any possible bargains... on the markets...
Quote from: Waltzing on Dec 26, 2022, 04:16 PMwinner() its better than being eaten by sharks at the beach!!!
remember last year when reports of fishing trips in BOP inlets were attacks by young great whites...
what ever the reason for shopping it may be that AUS saves the NZ retailers from a dire winter...
keep the some cash for any possible bargains... on the markets...
You have put me off swimming tomorrow lol
Quote from: Basil on Dec 26, 2022, 08:34 PMYou have put me off swimming tomorrow lol
Don't swim naked and keep some dry powder lol.
If HLG was in the DOW it would be a certainty to join The Dogs of the Dow Club
Qualification for this club being high dividend yield (theory says its then relatively under valued) and being a strong long lasting company also helps.
So I reckon HLG a good contender for The Dogs of the NZX for 2023
Doggy likes high quality growth companies priced like a dog
Well it is know that Beagles dont swim in oceans? but are known to cross streams while hunting in Ireland and the UK....
Lets hope that Auss brings us a happy New Year...
its all on the Kanga's now...but lets not tell them...
Boxing day shopping fest!!!
who did not do a bit then....
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/130865569/boxing-day-shoppers-spent-recordhigh-of-100-million-on-sales
Quote from: Waltzing on Dec 27, 2022, 04:30 PMBoxing day shopping fest!!!
who did not do a bit then....
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/130865569/boxing-day-shoppers-spent-recordhigh-of-100-million-on-sales
Initial data from Aust is encouraging too - those spend figures of a 7.9 per cent increase on last year's post-Christmas shopping are looking pretty well predicted.
Stunning weather and a great end to a horrible year...
Keep shopping!!!
Quote from: Waltzing on Dec 27, 2022, 08:28 PMStunning weather and a great end to a horrible year...
Keep shopping!!!
You raise a good point. The weather up until just after the annual meeting on 15 December was horrendous.
Been absolutely stunning weather for the last 10 days of so and the forecast for the rest of the week looks good too.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/christmas-spending-what-the-figures-say-about-consumer-sentiment/7LXNHALGN5DORKA2AZZG5OCSXQ/ Paywalled, excerpt
Boxing Day spending of just over $100m through the Worldline network was up 2.6 per cent from Boxing Day last year, meaning that it too suffered from higher spending but lower actual volumes as inflation remains high. However, Boxing Day isn't the spending bonanza it was previously, with spending on Black Friday being closer to $150m, and spending in the lead up to Christmas topping $200m on peak spending days.
Record sales Basil ........ and no doubt HLG had record sales as well
All looking good
Plenty of peacocking going on in the bays around Waiheke Island in the last 2 days. Wanted to get the binoculars out and have a closer look to inspect if it was Glassons swimwear or not but I knew Mrs B would be very grumpy if I did lol Thought about going swimming myself, but she kindly reminded me that a huge great white shark was caught a couple of years ago very close to where we were anchored up in Onetangi bay.
Heard some anecdotal feedback from a mate on the other forum that Glassons Sylvia park did $60K in turnover one day leading up to Christmas compared to $27K on the same day the previous year. Sounds good to me. Shocking amount of wind and rain until about 10 days ago, and now summer has finally arrived its all go ! Might collect some more of these unwanted dogs of the Dow shares in the new year...can't think of a more compelling buy for 2023.
Quote from: Basil on Dec 28, 2022, 10:13 AMPlenty of peacocking going on in the bays around Waiheke Island in the last 2 days. Wanted to get the binoculars out and have a closer look to inspect if it was Glassons swimwear or not but I knew Mrs B would be very grumpy if I did lol Thought about going swimming myself, but she kindly reminded me that a huge great white shark was caught a couple of years ago very close to where we were anchored up in Onetangi bay.
Heard some anecdotal feedback from a mate on the other forum that Glassons Sylvia park did $60K in turnover one day leading up to Christmas compared to $27K on the same day the previous year. Sounds good to me. Shocking amount of wind and rain until about 10 days ago, and now summer has finally arrived its all go ! Might collect some more of these unwanted dogs of the Dow shares in the new year...can't think of a more compelling buy for 2023.
Great white,examining young ladies swim wear lol lol.
Hlg stock in demand today but no doubt demand will disappear in the new year.
People been talking about a cost of living crisis for most of 2022 and yet HLG sales year to date up a whopping 41%. "Demand will disappear in the new year" lol. Young people have never been in more demand for well paid work and don't care one iota about interest rates. They just want to look cool in affordable fashion and have fun.
Worked out what to do with my HLG dividend. No better use than BUY more shares. Added more to it and another 10,000 shares in the bag 8)
Quote from: Basil on Dec 28, 2022, 03:10 PMPeople been talking about a cost of living crisis for most of 2022 and yet HLG sales year to date up a whopping 41%. "Demand will disappear in the new year" lol. Young people have never been in more demand for well paid work and don't care one iota about interest rates. They just want to look cool in affordable fashion and have fun.
Worked out what to do with my HLG dividend. No better use than BUY more shares. Added more to it and another 10,000 shares in the bag 8)
.
Great minds thinking alike? lol.
Picked up another 10k last week also.
Happy New Year to you all
I keep getting told the market is forward looking
WHS share price was down 20% since September. The market was telling us sales and margins were under pressure so be warned........AND SO IT TURNED OUTBTO BE THE CASE
BGP share price down 15% / MHJ share price down 15% / since October. The market is telling us sales and margins are under pressure so be warned .......NEXT UPDATE COULD BE BAD?
KMD share struggling to stay above $1. The market telling us that things aren't really going to plan and life is a bit of struggle ....NEXT UPDATE WILL BE INTERESTING ......one way or other but don't expect miracles
HLG share price UP 10% since October. The market is telling us sales going well and margins all OK ....... HOW GOOD THING ARE WE'LL FIND OUT IN FEBRUARY
Seems HLG the place to be at the moment
Austrália retail sales for November out today
Cool chart .....Glassons AU in the right space
Thats 6.4% up on October (seasonally adjusted) .......HUGE INCREASE
5E919801-A817-472A-9ED0-94343128AE39.jpeg
Thanks Winner. Just over a month until we get guidance for the first half on or about 17 February.
Guidance is usually in a tight range so we should have a good basis to forecast out the full year eps at that stage.
The lastest phrase on polish TV is taken from the English ...
keep calm and carry on ....
as pointed out by MR B many times its an AUSSI story.....
Despite my ongoing reservations around retail in general, I too decided to take a little paddle in the HLG pool. It might be a case of water on the brain after all this rain but... I do feel that HLG's ducks are lining up. This and IKE are my only NZX additions for 2023. Calm, carrying on and quietly confident.
Not as much confident on NZ but hopefully AUSSI will have our back....
After hounding up a few thousand more I've now reached 20% portfolio allocation.
Quote from: Basil on Jan 12, 2023, 04:06 PMAfter hounding up a few thousand more I've now reached 20% portfolio allocation.
And top 20 holder?
Quote from: Clearasmud on Jan 12, 2023, 04:23 PMAre we the only buyers?
The lack of any analyst coverage, while disappointing, does provide what I believe, (backed by how many I hold), is an outstanding opportunity.
Quote from: Clearasmud on Jan 12, 2023, 04:23 PMAre we the only buyers?
You two the market makers lol
Aus Stats
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/key-indicators
Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 12, 2023, 04:59 PMYou two the market makers lol
lol I think there might be a few other players as well
Quote from: Basil on Jan 12, 2023, 07:09 PMlol I think there might be a few other players as well
If you bought 2k yesterday then just us
Today I got some more.
Quote from: Clearasmud on Jan 12, 2023, 08:18 PMIf you bought 2k yesterday then just us
Today I got some more.
Last buy was just a tiny top up of 2,000 on 6 January.
Bought ~ 40,000 ARG today. I still believe in a diversified portfolio even if I am heavily overweight in my favorite 8)
ARG - hoooooping it stays down for another 12 months ....
as RSVB's over do tighening and QT piles on...
not that one understands the mechanics of QT...
QUUU Eeee's
This was a cry of Teen Crotty on the banks of the Whanganui River as Dick Tonk's sculled for the finish line in 1972....
wasnt there but was informed at afternoon tea ten years later... The days of afternoon Tea and Cream scones...
Quote from: Basil on Jan 12, 2023, 08:40 PMLast buy was just a tiny top up of 2,000 on 6 January.
Bought ~ 40,000 ARG today. I still believe in a diversified portfolio even if I am heavily overweight in my favorite 8)
I know maximum 15% in one stock.
Quote from: Clearasmud on Jan 12, 2023, 09:27 PMI know maximum 15% in one stock.
Naughty dog has gone to 20%. Sometimes the opportunity is so compelling you have to break your own rules 8)
I'm now comfortably overweight HLG. Roll on Feb 17. Have to keep taking a peak back at Winner's Earnings vs SP graph and Basil's calculations. Could call it confirmational bias but it feels good to me when there is little else on the market to match those historical vs forecast prospects. 😊
Retail sales still booming in Australia - no worries over there
Amazing post lockdown spending eh
'Clothing' line shown for obvious reasons - see clothing sector growth finally caught up to overall spend
Source - ASB Retail sales
0000aureta.JPG
Looks good Winner. All those young people out and about enjoying themselves after years of Covid "controls".
Who can blame them. Most young people brush off Covid like its just a cold in a few days so the target market for HLG is well and truly over the lockdown nonsense and just want to get back to enjoying their lives again and look cool doing it.
Good thing about that strong Australian retail trade data is we know Glassons Au will be growing their market share as well.
Westpac Card Tracker says retail spend still pretty strong (post Christmas and Boxing Day)
They say - The bottom line though is that despite sharply higher interest rates and very weak sentiment, consumers have still be spending strongly through the Christmas-New Year period with underlying momentum showing only a very mild impact from these wider pressures to date.
Glassons AU will be doing well (I said that, not Westpac)
Winner...sorry newbie question but I know your all over this stuff.
I've been reading all these retail figures being released all around the world. All seem reasonable strong..which I find surprising especially discretionary retail
Are these reported retail figures real or nominal? And is this something that would be consistent across
major markets like aus, us, uk, nz or does the reporting of it vary market to market and maybe I shouldn't believe everything I read?
Thank you in advance.
Quote from: Perky on Jan 13, 2023, 02:21 PMWinner...sorry newbie question but I know your all over this stuff.
I've been reading all these retail figures being released all around the world. All seem reasonable strong..which I find surprising especially discretionary retail
Are these reported retail figures real or nominal? And is this something that would be consistent across
major markets like aus, us, uk, nz or does the reporting of it vary market to market and maybe I shouldn't believe everything I read?
Thank you in advance.
Generally retail sales reporting globally is in nominal ($ of the day) terms.
Stats NZ do report sales in 2010 prices as a indication of volume (ie real / inflation adjusted basis). Other countries produce these as well
You'd be pretty safe to assume that when you read about sales in economic commenatary / media it would be in nominal terms unless specifically stated otherwise
Be funny if companies reported sales after inflation eh
Thank you for your reply Winner
I was reviewing a handful of my Australian positions and as part of that did a bit of work on underlying volumes in the Australian retail market. Thought I'd share as Australian retail relevant to a number of NZX listed firms eg Hallenstein Glassons, KMD, MHJ etc.
I find it interesting to look at volumes as opposed to nominal sales as I think it gives a better indication of underlying activity. Found on the Australian Bureau of Statistics a quarterly timeseries of seasonally adjusted volumes by retail segment - perfect. I indexed the values to the beginning of 2000 and calculated the volume trend to the end of 2019 (to avoid contaminating the trend with all the lockdowns, rebounds, QE and other oddities occurring since).
Below are the seasonally adjusted volumes and associated trend the clothing+accessories+shoes segment indexed to the start of 2000, with the consistent growth pattern leading to 0.98 r2 in the trendline - incredibly strong - which tells us the trend definitely means something.
pre covid trend.jpg
Then I dropped in the actual retail volumes to 30 September 2022, and rolled forward the previous trend line without updating it for the actual data from January 2020 to September 2022 to get a sense of how current clothing retail volumes compare to the pre covid trend line. This is below.
variation to trend.jpg
Clothing retail volumes in the September quarter were up over 21% from their pre covid trend. In all the historic data there hasn't been another data point whose variation above trend was this high.
My review of the October and November seasonally adjusted sales (including inflation) was robust so I'd assume that trend continues and perhaps widens in the December quarter.
So Aussie going gangbusters.
But given that very strong correlation in the volume trend, I can't help but wonder if a reversion to trend (or overshooting to below trend as is often the case) could unfold. I find this quite influential and informs my perspective on the maintainability of Aussie retail volumes, particularly over recent trading periods. High volumes lead to high rebates and lower discounting....falling does the inverse exacerbating the impact on margins together with the fall in sales.
Can't help but wonder if OZ will follow NZ in the retail space, and the last 12 months have been a temporary overperformance in line for a large fall. Or who knows, some may argue the world has changed and the shift to above trend growth is permanent.
All musings, but interesting to ponder, particularly if you are looking to make long term investments with spare dosh or a current holder in the sector. Random perspectives...do your own research...the ABS is a wonderful tool.
FM your saying people went out after lockdowns and shopped till they dropped....
BOS are great .. but notice a german data scientist in NZ outperformed the NZ Stats for inflation modelling...
from his home office... good story anyway
That little spike up is interesting.. some good stats people here and many thanks..
One of Oz papers was going on about this bath full of spare cash consumers had ....but the bath is getting pretty close to empty
I think he was trying to say the boom times are over ....and punters could even revert to making do with the clothes they bought and not buying anymore new gear for a while
Check out the super retail group trading update
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02621195-2A1425631?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4
Macpac killing it. Read thru for KMD?
Great result. On the other hand baby buntings dived yeaterday.
Rebel is for basic stuff... high end brands like FITTOOLS dont think they stock...
FM - chart with NZ data
Much the same except last couple of years not as volatile as OZ
NZ long term CAGR 3.3% pa ... what is it on your OZ data ... seems a bit less?
00000cloth volume.JPG
Quote from: winner (n) on Nov 19, 2022, 03:23 PMGlassons AU doubled their share last 4 years so expect them to double share again in say 3 years ... to 1.5%
That's about $400m of sales .... just from Glassons AU
[url="https://stocktalk.co.nz/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=402;type=preview;file"]0000glau.JPG[/url]
Stat's above posted by FM need to be considered in light of Glassons Au market share gains over the last 5 years, posted by Winner late last year, as above.
I like the carefully planned and prudent way they're expanding their retail footprint in Australia, without any debt, (cash on hand at balance date amounted to 59 cps).
I don't think anyone is expecting full year sales to be up the same as the 41% year to date announced in mid-December. I am forecasting FY23 sales growth of 24% and expecting a somewhat softer second half, albeit not as soft as the market appears to be expecting. Importantly the second half laps a period of substantial Omricon concern where at times for example we had more than 20,000 cases a day here in the same second half period last year.
Oz consumers feeling pretty happy
Headlines from Westpac:
Consumer Sentiment lifts 5.0% to 84.3 – largest monthly gain since April 2021.
Index has lifted by 8.1% in the last two months.
All good for Glassons
But if you read their full report it's all depressing stuff - like talking about the 1970s and the deep depression of the 1990's
https://library.westpaciq.com.au/content/dam/public/westpaciq/secure/economics/documents/aus/2023/01/er20230117BullConsumerSentiment.pdf
Goodness gracious
Stars NZ electronic card spend for December out today
Said Apparel sector spend was down 4.7% from November(sa)
Heck that's a 54% annualised decline ...huge
Maybe FM's prediction coming true
Sales were 2% higher than December in actual terms ...not seasonally adjusted
It's a poor reading for sure, but I wouldn't be surprised to see some of those monthly seasonal adjustment factors revised in the future. Black Friday promotions starting earlier, lasting longer and getting bigger year on year. SA factors look at recent trends, but when the trends are evolving yoy, they can be off, which is why seasonally adjusted data can move around (ie, if you look at an adjusted data series from years ago, and look at those same years but in an updated timeseries, the figures are often different). I reckon a lot of revenue is getting pulled forward into oct/nov.
That said, if the SA decline for december was too much, then the previous months may have been overstated, if that makes sense.
thankfully au still firing hawt.
Young people (HLG's customers), often don't care about what the Reserve bank is doing or consumer confidence. All they want to do is have fun and look cool in affordable fashion doing it. Getting inside the head of HLG customers, this helps https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UxxajLWwzqY
Discussing retail spending trends is at least as relevant to retail companies as discussing house price trends in the RV thread. Didnt you just do the later?
Fair comment, I have edited my post accordingly.
There's some great stuff on TikTok in terms of getting a view into brand health but supposing most of you aren't Tik Tokers youtube will have to do.
Just search for Glassons Haul. Quite the thing these reviews for fashion influencers. But get an interesting perspective. The brand is in great health and has been positioned well.
This one is an oldie (2yrs) but sorta interesting in terms of the rise of the brand on social media
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IEa4qyYQc2I
Glassons website traffic always interesting to watch and the associated demographics.
https://www.similarweb.com/website/glassons.com/#overview
Great brand.
Quote from: Fiordland Moose on Jan 18, 2023, 03:02 PMThere's some great stuff on TikTok in terms of getting a view into brand health but supposing most of you aren't Tik Tokers youtube will have to do.
Just search for Glassons Haul. Quite the thing these reviews for fashion influencers. But get an interesting perspective. The brand is in great health and has been positioned well.
This one is an oldie (2yrs) but sorta interesting in terms of the rise of the brand on social media
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IEa4qyYQc2I
Glassons website traffic always interesting to watch and the associated demographics.
https://www.similarweb.com/website/glassons.com/#overview
Great brand.
All the metrics seem to be getting worse - even the category ranking
Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 18, 2023, 03:10 PMAll the metrics seem to be getting worse - even the category ranking
jeesh when did you become more dour than me?
So for every 100 users that land on the Glasson's site (total sessions) 33 of them exit without triggering another request (single-page sessions) .... giving that 33% bounce rate
That's a respectable bounce rate ...but would be better if it was lower
Hey FM - what's interesting about your Australia sales chart is that clothing volumes were flat/down post GFC and it seemed to take a few years for sales to recover to pre GFC levels. Can guess a few reasons why,
Maybe this what might play out now
whats your hypothesis?
btw the best version of that chart is per capita. title of the graph starts to get a bit wordy....Index of Seasonally Adjusted Clothing Volumes per Capita.
would upload but busy assembling new chainsaw - some trees on the property are gunna get it this evening. hopefully one doesn't take me with it.
Aren't we all supposed to be tree huggers these days and hug and embrace all things recycled https://www.glassons.com/nz/c/swim
Gotta love the recycling Glassons does and admire the ladies brave enough to wear them.
Quote from: Basil on Jan 18, 2023, 04:40 PMAren't we all supposed to be tree huggers these days and hug and embrace all things recycled https://www.glassons.com/nz/c/swim
Gotta love the recycling Glassons does and admire the ladies brave enough to wear them.
Jeez ..this flashes across the top of that page
Further markdowns & new styles added to SALE! Up to 60% Off | Shop now
Jeez 60% off
Probably Glassons like Briscoes ......huge discounts that aren't really huge discounts ...may have to question the morality of that!
Bugger - didn't click through to another page ...thatll stuff the BOUNCE metric
"Up to" 60% I think is the key. Pretty normal to see summer fashion discounted a bit at this stage I would have thought.
Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 17, 2023, 09:37 AMFM - chart with NZ data
Much the same except last couple of years not as volatile as OZ
NZ long term CAGR 3.3% pa ... what is it on your OZ data ... seems a bit less?
[url="https://stocktalk.co.nz/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=552;type=preview;file"]00000cloth volume.JPG[/url]
okay winner - I slaughtered a few trees that had started to block part of my view - and fired up the trusty old excel rig.
Australian seasonally adjusted apparel volumes CAGRs:
* Pre Covid CAGR(March 2000 to December 2019): 4.0%
* All period CAGR (March 2000 to September 2022): 5.3%
* Post Covid CAGR: (December 2019 to September 2022: 10.7% [ NB - used Dec 2019 as the unadulterated start as if I used March 2020 CAGR would be even higher]
So the post covid CAGR has been 2.7x that experienced in the 19 full years preceding covid. Curious.
That's not population either...Aussie's pre covid population grew at a 1.5% CAGR...in the same post covid period, population only grew 0.7%.
I mentioned a few posts ago about volumes per capita. The september 2022 volumes per capita are actually up 24.1% relative to where they would be if the pre covid trendline had continued (relative to only 21% above trend on just a total volume basis).
Fortunately immigration is turning on again at a brisker pace than in NZ, but has a long way to go to catch up to historical growth let alone make up for the delta to trend.
I'd suspect current financial year will be a good to strong one for the majority of Australian retailers when compared to the previous year, but given these observations, I think its fair to wonder if FY23 will be to Aussie retailers as FY21 was to the Warehouse.
Obviously some businesses are better than others, have better growth plans, brands, etc, and all that matters for sure. But I read often in various threads about tides and boats so if its relevant there it may as well be relevant here.
Business statistics is such a big subject that one almost fears to use without a team of PHD's.
You just dont know what variable one might miss....
Glad some people have the confidence to do the maths and have confidence in it...
JB HI results were interesting early this week.
The US and EURO market so far have gone on where..
QuoteAll period CAGR (March 2000 to September 2022): 5.3%
Interesting statistic for Australian apparel spending. I don't share your pessimism about FY24 prospects.
At the annual meeting the directors said that FY22 was the most challenging year they'd ever had in business. That's really saying something considering this is N.Z's oldest listed company. Despite that they maintained sales and earned 42 cps. My thesis as previously stated is this is the new chart datum and represents trough year earnings and HLG trade on just 12.7 times those.
In terms of tidal flows I believe the tide has already gone out, (S&P 500 retail index was down 35% last time I checked) and the market is already factoring in a significant slowdown in CY2023. There's a very good chance the central banks will be cutting rates in 2024. What I am interested in and found useful from your post is the above statistic which is an impressive long term compound average growth rate for Australian apparel sales.
Overlay that with Glassons Au market share gains and proven ability to capture more, combined with the fact that they have such a low retail footprint penetration there so far, (same number of stores as Glassons N.Z. despite the market being 5-6 times the size), and we can see the outstanding long term growth prospects ahead. Their CAGR in sales of 26% per annum in the last 5 years, subject to variations from one year to another could continue at a similar rate for another decade or even more! In the long term I think the brand's outstanding future in Australia is currently being completely overlooked by the market.
Sheeting this back to my main investment goal as articulated recently on the ARV thread, I think HLG has outstanding prospects as an income stock that will give a very high yield that's highly likely to grow at, or greater than the inflation rate over time. Best of breed stocks trading on really compelling metrics are the ones I am comfortable to hold long term.
AUSS is the life raft this year as money leaves everywhere for US apparently...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/01/18/world-giving-britain-warns-cbi-chief/
Will money stop flowing here? flat NZX for years to come?
Share price seems to be deflating. Could reach the single digit $5s if someone needs/wants to sell a chunk quickly.
Expecting an announcement regarding half year result guidance on or about 17 February and I am confident it will be a record half year profit.
Got thinking about the advantages of a share buy-back this morning seeing as its clear they won't be able to fully impute the record dividend they're capable of paying in April. Depending on timing of capex this year I estimate HLG will have close to $50m cash in the bank at the half year and no debt, (they were already in a very strong financial position with $35m when they last reported). A 5% buy-back of 59.6m shares = 2.98m @ say $5.50 average = $16.4m cash cost and could be spread over the next 12 months. The key with these buy-backs is they're tax efficient! It's always "up too" a maximum of 5% of shares, (NZX regulations), so they don't have to execute fully on any plan they might announce in due course.
Such an action would boost all future year's earnings per share by 5% and anyone who wanted their share of the buy-back cash could sell 5% of their stake and suffer no loss in the earnings or dividends in the years ahead.
I think this is a good time to execute on this strategy. The company's shares are trading at an extraordinarily low multiple of current year's earnings and their financial position has never been stronger. Paying out a huge interim dividend which the company in my view is highly likely to be capable of doing and attracting a substantial tax impost again through only partial imputation seems like such a waste of money. I might communicate a few thoughts along the lines above in due course to the company, (will wait for half year profit guidance first).
One thing we can be 100% confident in, whatever strategy they decide upon going forward, we can rely on Tim Glassons 20% stake and his incredible depth of experience to be sure it's the right one for the current economic conditions.
well they have never done a Buy back and they have bit of a bad wrap on NZX... as opposed to the whopping increase in share values on the NYSE and
if they want to keep increasing their foot print in AUS will they want to keep the booty for a rain'e day?
certainly something wasnt expecting from them but there is always a first time....
with the limited number of share on sale at any one time it could keep the chart from it usual cyclical gyration..
As N.Z's oldest listed company they certainly have an incredibly long history, (Hallensteins been trading 150 years this year and Glassons 97 years), so their first priority is the ongoing longevity of the company and then secondly, expansion of Glassons Australia which they continue with in a prudent and disciplined way.
I think while there is certainly plenty of scope and financial headroom for a buy-back as well, the board will keep doing what they have always done and keep more than adequate reserves to continue their steady expansion strategy and ensure they have substantial reserves to withstand any potential slowdown ahead.
Nevertheless, in the circumstances I think it's something they possibly might consider and something worth bringing to their attention. They don't have to execute on the whole 5%...maybe just mop up those keen to sell in the low $5 range?
Aussie guru analyst says he prefers retailers who sell stuff to the affluent or sell stuff to the young and carefree who wouldn't know interest rates and recessions are.
I think he's right on the ball
PS - actual words were " The UBS team says it prefers exposure to companies that have more affluent customers and those that target very young and older consumers, who are less likely to be feeling the pinch of rising interest rates." And mentioned Lovisa and moose's favourite Universal Store
HL Glassons sells to the young my designer in AUS says.....
low prob on a buy back... as NZ sales might put the wind up them going forward...
its a nail bitter ...17th
Someone's been listening to you Basil - up 24c on lowish volumes. Bodes well for a real kick when results come out?
Quote from: LoungeLizard on Jan 27, 2023, 02:54 PMSomeone's been listening to you Basil - up 24c on lowish volumes. Bodes well for a real kick when results come out?
From other channel seems a fair bit of buying support before half year result
Bodes well
Media report
There is speculation that Hallenstein Glasson, and even Briscoe, may enter the NZX top 50 following the latest review over the next 15 trading days and index rebalancing.
LVMH just posted record something or other had a low in the 540's back in july and now powering up
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20230126-french-luxury-group-lvmh-posts-record-sales-net-profit-for-2022
parfait !
french for we dont give a damn about your recession... everything is perfect...
"Media report
There is speculation that Hallenstein Glasson, and even Briscoe, may enter the NZX top 50 following the latest review over the next 15 trading days and index rebalancing."
there is the computation competition isnt there and how close are these 2 to that magic formula....
eve posting this is fraught with the sound of whipping wramping up the histeria that might follow such an epic event...
Quote from: SuperMario on Jan 27, 2023, 02:38 AMShare price seems to be deflating. Could reach the single digit $5s if someone needs/wants to sell a chunk quickly.
The reverse jinx, classic.
if the share price plummets faster than a feeding gannet it will long term (2 years) probably be down not long...CPI not increasing at a steady pace as of todays CPI in the US..
Quote from: LoungeLizard on Jan 27, 2023, 02:54 PMSomeone's been listening to you Basil - up 24c on lowish volumes. Bodes well for a real kick when results come out?
:o
Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 27, 2023, 06:46 PMMedia report
There is speculation that Hallenstein Glasson, and even Briscoe, may enter the NZX top 50 following the latest review over the next 15 trading days and index rebalancing.
Can you please post a link mate.
Thanks.
Quote from: Basil on Jan 28, 2023, 03:39 PMCan you please post a link mate.
Thanks.
Got chided a while ago for posting links to articles behind paywall so didn't bother
If I cheat and just paste in the relevant bit it saves you reading a lot of useless stuff to get to the good bits
Anyway here is the link
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/market-close-nz-stocks-rise-on-improved-business-confidence/3NXQ5T7PQBH4PNI66AFCV2Q5LU/
Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 28, 2023, 04:17 PMGot chided a while ago for posting links to articles behind paywall so didn't bother
If I cheat and just paste in the relevant bit it saves you reading a lot of useless stuff to get to the good bits
Anyway here is the link
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/market-close-nz-stocks-rise-on-improved-business-confidence/3NXQ5T7PQBH4PNI66AFCV2Q5LU/
Thanks for posting link, just wanted the context. Interesting!
Very limited amount I can do from my phone with no power but from a quick look it seems eroads market cap is now only $100m v HLG over $300m.
Seems to me removal of Eroad from NZX50 is highly likely, not sure about RBD or who might replace one or both but where there is smoke there is usually fire so HLG could get a major boost from 17 February record half year profit guidance and NZX50 inclusion!
Very pleased to be holding heaps 8)
Power finally back on and did a bit of digging around for more context.
Extract from that N.Z. Herald article
Two stocks in danger of dropping out of the top 50 had strong days – Eroad rose 17c or 19.1 per cent to $1.06, and Restaurant Brands increased 20c or 3.25 per cent to $6.35 after reaching a low of $5.50 earlier this month
Apparently, Rod Duke owns 77% so free float market cap, 23%, is $241m.
80% free float HLG (ex Tim Glassons stake) is $259.6m
In terms of possible RBD exit from the NZX50 a press article reports Finaccess capital own 75% so apparent free float market cap is now just $198m. From the annual report HSBC nominees owns over 77%, (obviously includes the aforementioned 75% stake) and top 20 shareholders own over 93% so free float market cap could be less.
Anyway....regarding NZX50 possible inclusion - I bought HLG on its own merits and am expecting a real cracker profit guidance on or about 17 February. HLG is knocking on the door of NZX50 inclusion and I feel with the way the company is performing it's only a matter of time, whether it's in February / March, (index rebalance used to be third Friday of third week of third month each quarter but it seems to be happening earlier now), or May /June 2023 quarter rebalance or sometime later this year or next, I feel it's something that's likely to happen sooner or later.
There were reports of ERoad exit from nzx50 in novemeber ...I presumed they had already gone and that's why share price dropped from 140 odd to sub 100.
Might be completely wrong though
Thanks mate. For what it's worth I googled EROAD exits NZX50 and it gave no results other than press articles on when they were added to the NZX50.
Ok... if you guys say so... maybe we havnt got enought of these....
just saying ...
looked at ages ago.. cant remember the numbers
2012 verson
https://companyresearch.nzx.com/deep_ar/files/NZX_Equity_Indices_Methodology_June_2012.pdf
ERD got kicked off NZX50 and a MidCap Index just before Christmas
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/NZXO/403510/384949.pdf
Anything other nags in the running? or is it just these 2 moving up to G1.
does the 2012 still apply?
Getting back into NZX50 will give share price a decent boost
Probably enough to get over 7 bucks
And don't overlook that current price is cum 25 cent plus divie
HLG is too illiquid to get back into NZX50 imo.
Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 29, 2023, 11:09 AMGetting back into NZX50 will give share price a decent boost
Probably enough to get over 7 bucks
And don't overlook that current price is cum 25 cent plus divie
Too illiquid to get back into the index imo.
But yes, HLG will go to $7 if gets included into the index. Just imagine the institutions trying to buy a few million shares!
Deserves to be at $7+ on its own merits in my opinion and yes I have seen 20%+ movements in share prices on NZX50 inclusion before. Time will tell if its included in the next NZX50 rebalance or one a little further down the track but as mentioned earlier, I think inclusion is only a matter of time.
No doubt inclusion will be like the icing on the cake in due course, but I bought this for the quality of the cake. Some cake's don't need icing to be truly delectable.
Quote from: Basil on Jan 30, 2023, 09:43 AMDeserves to be at $7+ on its own merits in my opinion and yes I have seen 20%+ movements in share prices on NZX50 inclusion before. Time will tell if its included in the next NZX50 rebalance or one a little further down the track but as mentioned earlier, I think inclusion is only a matter of time.
No doubt inclusion will be like the icing on the cake in due course, but I bought this for the quality of the cake. Some cake's don't need icing to be truly delectable.
I meant 7 bucks soon ...and then 10 bucks on merit next year sometime.
Quote from: winner (n) on Nov 19, 2022, 03:23 PMGlassons AU doubled their share last 4 years so expect them to double share again in say 3 years ... to 1.5%
That's about $400m of sales .... just from Glassons AU
0000glau.JPG
Fabulous work from Winner late last year that people might like to reflect upon
Yes chicken and egg.....
Quote from: winner (n) on Nov 21, 2022, 02:42 PMGot me crayons out and updated this for you waltz
Still priced on F22 earnings
The big column on the right July 23 is basils forecast
[url="https://stocktalk.co.nz/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=408;type=preview;file"]00000hlg.JPG[/url]
and this one.
No argument from me that there is deep value in HLG's share price and that a significant rerating is fully deserved based on their well proven track record of strong growth with Glassons Australia.
Tracking upwards but is NZ the hand break now...
Broke up through its 200 day MA today!
graph is very wavy isnt it... big ups... downs and then long periods of level flight....
it bounces about a bit....
appears to be forming a bit of a base here... just need a decent report...
I have a "front row" seat, (AKA well positioned), to the forthcoming half year guidance expected on or about 17 February, just 13 trading days away.
Excellent base built all the way back to May 2022 in the ~ low $5 range, (low point was $4.93).
Quote from: Basil on Jan 31, 2023, 08:27 AMI have a "front row" seat, (AKA well positioned), to the forthcoming half year guidance expected on or about 17 February, just 13 trading days away.
It's going to surprise even the gung ho you
Waltz buddy, forget the wavy ups and downs. Just look at the co-relation of EPS and share price going back to 2005. A graph like that should be printed and hung on the wall with a caption 'Opportunity Knocks'!
Yes, wonderful work by Winner, (reproduced at post #348 above), best post of 2022 in my opinion.
"wavy ups and downs"
hopefully we will hve a fully automated wavy line drawer later in the year...
winner may create a whole formula for capital returns on investment from profit reinvested..
yes the fact that its all been generated from profit and still paying over 5%
Bloody heck - just in from ABS re Oz retail sales for December
Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing fell 13.1% (-$417.9m) in December, in seasonally adjusted terms.
Need to dig deeper methinks
Bloody seasonally adjusted numbers - always make things look really good or really bad - like clothing etc falling 13% in December is really really bad- disastrous
But compared to December 21 they were UP 8.6% - not disastrous at all ... but some would say the start of a trend.
Now that's a lot better eh
Suppose commentators will say the boom in clothing sales has peaked and we will see low growth or even a decline over the next 12 months
Never mind - we'll know how up to January how Glassons went and then a few months later at ASM time how Feb/March/April are going
much better to read thanks W() >- 8.6%
think the market has been expecting a slow down and that why it dipped to 490's
Business desk warns of head winds for retailers.....
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/retail/are-storm-clouds-on-the-horizon-for-listed-retailers
( but doesn't mention HLG, so all good.)
Market cap now $334m...chances of NZX50 inclusion keep looking better.
Most young people (HLG demographic) don't have mortgages.
Homeowners are going to do belt tightening on big ticket items, no question about that but young people tired from years of lockdowns and unnecessary Covid oppression are determined to put that misery behind them, get out and enjoy themselves and look good in cool clothes doing it.
I have seen a couple of articles, (sorry should have kept them for reference) suggesting young people's mental health was more severely affected by Covid oppression than other age groups. I've seen studies of PTSD (post-traumatic stress disorder) that suggest it takes at least as long as the trauma endured for people to get over it. Maybe young people haven't fully developed the mental resilience others have and really did feel the lockdown oppression more?
My core thesis is HLG demographic have a durable and serious determination to have some serious fun to shake off the trauma of the last 3 years.
We also all know that young people want to look cool to fit in.
I think the very widely foreshadowed slowdown in retail spending has already been fully baked in and then some as well for good measure into HLG.
Just a thought. What if all the naysayers are wrong and young people keep spending on affordable fashion?
every time the market warns abou retailing it used to nose div or (go wavy)...
but that was before they somehow create and grew glassons AUD and that line along the bottom angled up....
notice how it does not take much vol for the price to move and it looks like to wait for feb was not going to work...
oh well ...
Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 31, 2023, 03:51 PMBloody seasonally adjusted numbers - always make things look really good or really bad - like clothing etc falling 13% in December is really really bad- disastrous
But compared to December 21 they were UP 8.6% - not disastrous at all ... but some would say the start of a trend.
Now that's a lot better eh
Suppose commentators will say the boom in clothing sales has peaked and we will see low growth or even a decline over the next 12 months
Never mind - we'll know how up to January how Glassons went and then a few months later at ASM time how Feb/March/April are going
The seasonally adjusted decline for December is bogus for the reasons I alluded to in post 304. Over the last 2 maybe 3 years there has been a new trend to start black friday sales earlier and they last longer which has pulled sales forward from December, and that has been compounded by more people taking part in those sales this year with rising inflation. Economist seasonal adjustment models are based off longer term trends and they can't cope with rapidly changing trends in monthly data.
The only relevant datapoint is thus quarterly sales data as it nets all that out nicely.
December quarterly apparel grew robustly. The underlying volume data won't be released by the ABS till 6 Feb but I remain confident that will show growth both reported and seasonally adjusted (quarterly seasonal adjustments are still reasonably accurate as the pull forward nets out during the 3 month period).
All that said I did over the last week or two exit my position from Universal Store which has a similar demographic (if more menswear based) to HLG. A sensational outcome, although I did get a bit of fomo when I saw a KKR buyout fund became a substantial holder today.
FF surely the only figures that can be used to create a trend line is something with over 12 months data sets?
Monthly being to short is what your saying?
Winner has yet to plot the increasing in EPS adjust the increase in Glasson in AUD outlets with the online numbers removed?
i think winner was a corporate stats man working for Gold Mans but got his start in Soloman Brothers selling morgate bonds...
The seasonally adjusted HLG share price just hit $6.00
O Niel would say wait for the break out and that hasnt happened yet,,,, cant find the old book.... its travelled far,
and he woudl say the data need to confirm the break out with Vol to match.
But that was back in the 80's when everything was drawn on chart paper. Or did they have a printing press in the back room.
The NZX doesnt really conform to any US models as there is no VOL to speak of...
A day trader would say that was a sell yesterday...
Quote from: Waltzing on Feb 01, 2023, 11:27 AMO Niel would say wait for the break out and that hasnt happened yet,,,, cant find the old book.... its travelled far,
and he woudl say the data need to confirm the break out with Vol to match.
But that was back in the 80's when everything was drawn on chart paper. Or did they have a printing press in the back room.
The NZX doesnt really conform to any US models as there is no VOL to speak of...
That's okay, you have me ;D
Mark Minervini says that early (Stage One) breakouts are only successful 2% of the time - what you want to see is the trend solidify and then catch the second breakout (Stage Two) when the stock is already in an uptrend. Its too early for HLG, the 50 day MA is still below the 200 day MA, and its still putting in lower highs. It may (operative word MAY) have put in a double bottom with a capitulation shake out on 30 Sept. FY24 forecasts might be the catalyst needed, in which case PEAD (post earnings announcement drift) should kick in giving it a bit of momentum, but the corollary of that is if forecasts are lowered and the stock goes on to new lower lows. Keep in mind that analysts will be adjusting for inflation, and looking for real growth not just more $$$ sales.
Personally, I am not buying breakouts from below the 200 day MA, or where the 50 day MA is still below the 200 day MA. They usually turn out to be Fakeouts. (So MM ^ is correct)
Book will turn up under a pile of ther in due course we hope...
is the stage one and two a bit like the theory of picking a wave in a set to ride.. sometimes the 2 or 3rd can be the bigger wave...
BOP has some big surf but for long board next week looks better..
Might get the graph paper out later and do a point and figure chart
Usually very reliable at identifying trends ...takes time out of the equation
Now where are the coloured crayons
Pastel charting... a lost art form....
cant wait to see Winners() color choices...
Quote from: Waltzing on Feb 02, 2023, 06:14 PMPastel charting... a lost art form....
cant wait to see Winners() color choices...
Still working on it waltz ....
........but I'm surprised that it seems the HLG share price is still in a down trend
Charting an illiquid stock like HLG?
Might as well use tea leaves?
Looking forward to first half profit guidance on or about 17 February.
I think HLG is capable of sustaining a 10% gross yield and that's what's important to me.
When those huge divvies come in, they are what I call "problem solvers".
Possibly worth noting the shares presently trade cum another big 20+ cents dividend in a couple of months and the next one should hopefully include some imputation credits. I am estimating the next one in April with be 24 cents with the potential for it to be significantly higher.
well that was a trade.... back to lower bound and maybe heading down again till some news.
Tough world this fashion business
Probably stole a few Glassons ideas as well
https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/style/131069707/acclaimed-new-zealand-fashion-designer-adrian-hailwood-facing-intellectual-property-breach-investigation-as-duplicate-designs-emerge
Quote from: winner (n) on Feb 05, 2023, 11:21 AMTough world this fashion business
Probably stole a few Glassons ideas as well
https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/style/131069707/acclaimed-new-zealand-fashion-designer-adrian-hailwood-facing-intellectual-property-breach-investigation-as-duplicate-designs-emerge
That is really shocking. Its literally the same as BMW buying a cheap Chinese brand car for $10,000, rebadging it, and selling it as a BMW designed and built car for $100,000. The Commerce Commission really needs to get stuck into that guy, for a host of illegal practices.
I think Hallensteins need to lift their game with their Tee Shirts which all seem a bit lame with their designs.
Genuine question, where do you draw the line with this sort of thing ?
Here's one t shirt that's really cute https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=r2WrceyK&id=7E02EC4BA409AE24830E0D84E8D235D6F1020D19&thid=OIP.r2WrceyKsvxRQyernYKVIgHaHa&mediaurl=https%3a%2f%2fi.pinimg.com%2foriginals%2f52%2fe8%2f5d%2f52e85da5c307624d50cab0bce9a9544f.jpg&cdnurl=https%3a%2f%2fth.bing.com%2fth%2fid%2fR.af65ab71ec8ab2fc514327ab9d829522%3frik%3dGQ0C8dY10uiEDQ%26pid%3dImgRaw%26r%3d0&exph=1155&expw=1155&q=beagle+dog+tee+shirts&simid=608024312796433018&FORM=IRPRST&ck=4F2E2A803D9F0497C3A4AE5AB88684CB&selectedIndex=1&ajaxhist=0&ajaxserp=0
If Hallensteins photographs a different Beagle and puts it on a T Shirt in a similar way is that actionable?
Quote from: Basil on Feb 05, 2023, 01:56 PMI think Hallensteins need to lift their game with their Tee Shirts which all seem a bit lame with their designs.
Genuine question for you KW with your legal background, where do you draw the line with this sort of thing ?
Here's one t shirt that's really cute https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=r2WrceyK&id=7E02EC4BA409AE24830E0D84E8D235D6F1020D19&thid=OIP.r2WrceyKsvxRQyernYKVIgHaHa&mediaurl=https%3a%2f%2fi.pinimg.com%2foriginals%2f52%2fe8%2f5d%2f52e85da5c307624d50cab0bce9a9544f.jpg&cdnurl=https%3a%2f%2fth.bing.com%2fth%2fid%2fR.af65ab71ec8ab2fc514327ab9d829522%3frik%3dGQ0C8dY10uiEDQ%26pid%3dImgRaw%26r%3d0&exph=1155&expw=1155&q=beagle+dog+tee+shirts&simid=608024312796433018&FORM=IRPRST&ck=4F2E2A803D9F0497C3A4AE5AB88684CB&selectedIndex=1&ajaxhist=0&ajaxserp=0
If Hallensteins photographs a different Beagle and puts it on a T Shirt in a similar way is that actionable?
277 t-shirt designs according to the website. There must be something there for you, Basil? The eye opener for me is their licensed gear... that is also selling at Kmart...for less.
Quote from: Basil on Feb 05, 2023, 01:56 PMI think Hallensteins need to lift their game with their Tee Shirts which all seem a bit lame with their designs.
Genuine question, where do you draw the line with this sort of thing ?
Here's one t shirt that's really cute https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=r2WrceyK&id=7E02EC4BA409AE24830E0D84E8D235D6F1020D19&thid=OIP.r2WrceyKsvxRQyernYKVIgHaHa&mediaurl=https%3a%2f%2fi.pinimg.com%2foriginals%2f52%2fe8%2f5d%2f52e85da5c307624d50cab0bce9a9544f.jpg&cdnurl=https%3a%2f%2fth.bing.com%2fth%2fid%2fR.af65ab71ec8ab2fc514327ab9d829522%3frik%3dGQ0C8dY10uiEDQ%26pid%3dImgRaw%26r%3d0&exph=1155&expw=1155&q=beagle+dog+tee+shirts&simid=608024312796433018&FORM=IRPRST&ck=4F2E2A803D9F0497C3A4AE5AB88684CB&selectedIndex=1&ajaxhist=0&ajaxserp=0
If Hallensteins photographs a different Beagle and puts it on a T Shirt in a similar way is that actionable?
Its about what you think you are buying. If I shop at HLG I expect to buy generic clothes, not a label, and certainly not a one-off couture design. HLG can photograph a different beagle and put it on a t-shirt and that's fine, as its the design that is copyrighted not the idea. HLG can also buy the t-shirts and resell them in their store, so long as they have the permission of the person who owns the copyright in the design. Customers don't care because they are buying a t-shirt not the design. Customers don't have an expectation of exclusivity, because they know lots of stores stock Levi's jeans for instance. With clothes shops you expect them to have sourced their clothes, rather than to have designed them from scratch. Stores employ Buyers not Designers.
But there is a big difference between shopping at a store for generic clothes, and buying an item from a "fashion designer" - there you are most definitely buying the design (the hint is in the word "designer" lol), and you expect it to be original, and exclusive to that label. Any copying of that design is unlawful, and usually big fashion houses will go after anyone who is counterfeiting their clothes. So for a fashion designer to be selling clothes that he did not design, that are not exclusive to his label, and are simply resales of generic "off the rack" clothes (some being owned by actual labels), is misleading, deceptive, and constitutes passing off (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passing_off)
Westpac Oz card tracker to end of last week says "....month-to-month comparisons suggest broader underlying momentum is still holding at a solid pace. "
Só clothes doing well and Glassons AU doing better than well
Will get an idea how well next week
Kumar says US dollar heading higher on FED panic about to resume...
What that sound....
lets hope its the sound of AUSSI gals shopping..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pa14VNsdSYM
and not ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bjSpO2B6G4s
Data released yesterday by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) shows that real after-inflation retail spending fell by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in the final three months of 2022.
Department store sales volumes fell by 2.9% over the December quarter, while fashion sales volumes were down 2.3%.
Commenting on the result, Ben Dorber, ABS head of retail statistics, explained that "retail sales volumes fell for the first time since the September quarter 2021, with volumes falling across all non-food industries as consumers tightened discretionary spending in response to mounting cost of living pressures".
And yet despite this and pretty modest N.Z. retail statistics HLG sales were up 41% year to date to mid December 2022. You need to get with the program KW and start wearing cool HLG gear 8)
Still expecting record ever first half guidance to be issued on or about 17 February and I am well positioned for the XXXXL dividend in mid April.
Bit of downramping on other site ...like HLG a cyclical and hard times ahead with the inevitable drop in the share price ... and saying this is a dividend trap and a pathway to massive capital value fluctuations that will test even the most hardened investors resolve.
Probably a few punters missing out and can't recognise a good thing when they see on.
Never mind - half year result next week will be good, surprisingly good.
Quote from: winner (n) on Feb 08, 2023, 10:58 AMBit of downramping on other site ...like HLG a cyclical and hard times ahead with the inevitable drop in the share price ... and saying this is a dividend trap and a pathway to massive capital value fluctuations that will test even the most hardened investors resolve.
Probably a few punters missing out and can't recognise a good thing when they see on.
Never mind - half year result next week will be good, surprisingly good.
Possibly, perhaps even probably. However - don't forget: markets are forward looking (if they happen to have a rational moment, this is ...).
Anyway ... so many amazing investments around these days, you can't possibly catch all of them.
Quote from: BlackPeter on Feb 08, 2023, 12:29 PMPossibly, perhaps even probably. However - don't forget: markets are forward looking (if they happen to have a rational moment, this is ...).
Anyway ... so many amazing investments around these days, you can't possibly catch all of them.
I would call HLG one of those amazing investments with a 9% divi yield in the current investment climate on that basis alone. Add to that the possibility of up to 80% imputation credits in April, and probably share price appreciation thanks to Glassons AU (flagged by the ST gurus here back in December), what's not to like.
BP, what other amazing investments are on your list. I am always interested in other investors strategies.
Disclosure: Feeling well positioned as a HLG investor.
Quote from: Whome on Feb 08, 2023, 01:33 PMI would call HLG one of those amazing investments with a 9% divi yield in the current investment climate on that basis alone. Add to that the possibility of up to 80% imputation credits in April, and probably share price appreciation thanks to Glassons AU (flagged by the ST gurus here back in December), what's not to like.
BP, what other amazing investments are on your list. I am always interested in other investors strategies.
Disclosure: Feeling well positioned as a HLG investor.
Never mind the dividend yield when you pay for it with risking your capital. Market is not stupid, and if they pay you such a huge dividend yield, it means that market sees some huge black clouds at the horizon.
Just remember the times when ST Gurus told us how cheap AIR is at 2 to 3 dollars per share ... and this amazing dividend yield AIR will clearly pay until the end of all days.
HLG is clearly a cyclical ... and while it's SP sort of plateaued half way down, I am not that certain to bet on it omitting the lower part of the cycle and going back up directly from here - with a recession in the wings. It is amazing how people spend as long as they still have money to throw away, but wait until the mortgage renewal is due. If the choice is mortgage payment, payment for the car, food or a new T-shirt ... well, I know what I would drop first.
But never mind - many people spend as if there is no tomorrow ... so why shouldn't investors behave the same way?
Not sure whom you are referring to as "ST Guru". As a rule - nobody can predict future share prices ... i.e. better invest into shares based on your own research. While your capability to predict future share prices clearly won't be different to anybody else's ... at least you won't need to blame (or credit) anybody else for your loss or gain.
Where do I see currently investment opportunities? Well, if I need to pick cyclicals, than I pick them at (or around) the bottom of the cycle. Just check some blue chips until recently in the down ramp cycle from "ST Gurus". In NZ: REITS, Retirement villages (e.g. ARV, OCA and shock horror even RYM) and building companies (e.g. FBU, STU). Transport is always good when the economy gets our of a recession - I hold e.g. MFT. This is where my money goes.
Internationally - did you notice how cheap most of the companies currently are who produce stuff people need, be it (good quality) cars, building industry, electronics, medical equipment? Picking the good ones is like shooting fish in a barrel (not that I would do that to fish).
Anyway ... sorry for the interruption. I am sure the next result will be amazing, however it looks - and who is worrying about tomorrow anyway?
Laughable how the downrampers are calling this a cyclical and warning of capital losses. Since Glassons Au achieved critical mass in FY17 shares have doubled from $2.75 !
Quote from: Basil on Feb 08, 2023, 05:21 PMLaughable how the downrampers are calling this a cyclical and warning of capital losses. Since Glassons Au achieved critical mass in FY17 shares have doubled from $2.75 !
Basil, I am sorry that a poster of your qualities sees his last resort in labelling others raising absolutely valid concerns as "down rampers".
I hope this is just a temporary slip ... used to be more fun to work with you previously.
Just looking at the HLG trend - not sure how else to call that as (inflation adjusted) cyclical. If you can't see that, maybe you should consider a visit at your local Specsavers ...
Might be ownership bias, though ... I guess this is where glasses unfortunately don't help.
HLG trend.JPG
Quote from: BlackPeter on Feb 08, 2023, 05:52 PMBasil, I am sorry that a poster of your qualities sees his last resort in labelling others raising absolutely valid concerns as "down rampers".
I hope this is just a temporary slip ... used to be more fun to work with you previously.
Just looking at the HLG trend - not sure how else to call that as (inflation adjusted) cyclical. If you can't see that, maybe you should consider a visit at your local Specsavers ...
Might be ownership bias, though ... I guess this is where glasses unfortunately don't help.
HLG trend.JPG
Ha ha ...about as cyclical as Oceania ....whoever would have thought Oceania was a cyclical
Nice long day out on the boat so could only be bothered making time for a short pithy comment earlier.
I've posted extensively about this company already...for goodness sake please, try and keep up, there's a good chap.
HLG was a cyclical before they started expanding Glassons Au in FY17. Since then Glassons Au sales have grown from ~ $50m per annum to what I believe will be comfortably north of $200m per annum for FY23. That's quadrupled in 6 years, (just in case your calculator isn't working). They have a proven history of growing sales at a compound average growth rate of 26% per annum over 6 years since operations over there hit critical mass in early FY17 when the share price was $2.75. If not this year, certainly in FY24, Australian sales will exceed N.Z. sales.
To be crystal clear, there are two distinct era's in which HLG have operated. Before Glassons Au and after Glassons Au.
HLG N.Z. probably is still a cyclical, although, mark my words, many will be very surprised with their sales this half.
If you go back and have a look at my workings on the other site (I do not have the time to look back and check the post number for you), you will see that I believe approx 80% of the value of the shares lies in Glassons Au (a genuine growth division with huge potential in the years ahead) and only 20% of my assessed value lies with Glassons N.Z. and the Hallensteins brand.
Put another way, as I see it one division of HLG (Glassons Au) is worth 4 times the rest of the company and therefore this is a 80% growth company and 20% of the value is a cyclical.
Here's their 2017 annual report https://www.hallensteinglasson.co.nz/content/reports/Annual%20Report.pdf
That year just $50m of the $239m annual sales were from Australia, (21%). Australian sales are going to be north of $200m this year, (approx 50%). In just six years HLG has transitioned into a truly Trans Tasman company through the exceptional, sustained growth of Glassons Au. Group Sales in FY23 according to my forecast, will be nearly double what they were in FY17 and have grown steadily over the years.
When you start thinking about the fact that as at balance date FY22 Glasson Au only had exactly the same number of stores as Glassons N.Z. (36 stores each), and the fact that the Australian market is 5-6 times the size of ours and Glassons is a fresh young brand there and arguably very mature here, it's hard not to get very excited about the future of Glassons Au and the implications for growth in earnings per share in the years ahead.
Please do some reading of annual reports...Blind Freedy can see where the value of this company lies and the proven growth history and exciting growth potential ahead for Glassons Au. Disc: #1 Invested position on the NZX
You can get copies of all previous reports here https://www.hallensteinglasson.co.nz/investment-centre
HLG have a 'fortress balance sheet' ...... fortress seems to be a new buzz word when it comes to describing balance sheets
Well is it? its impressive they have grown the business from no cap raises..
As stated before these reports need to be PDF object tagged... from all public companies. Its got to a point where the industry is negligent on reporting from a technology point of view.
notice retained earnings.
Current Assets.
Current Liabilities.
Quote from: winner (n) on Feb 08, 2023, 06:22 PMHa ha ...about as cyclical as Oceania ....whoever would have thought Oceania was a cyclical
Of course are REITS cyclical and highly correlated with the ups and downs of the Real Estate Market.
What exactly is your point?
Quote from: winner (n) on Feb 09, 2023, 08:36 AMHLG have a 'fortress balance sheet' ...... fortress seems to be a new buzz word when it comes to describing balance sheets
A point completely overlooked by a poster in the other forum who occasionally posts here who appears to have only now jumped on board with forecasting a record ever FY23, something I have been forecasting for months.
If he's right with his $30-35m this half, (and I am not sure he will be but am doing some analysis on first and second half forecasted profit split today), that's eps of 50 -59 cps this half.
They already had 59 cps in cash at balance date and have paid out 24 cps so without knowing the timing of capex this year and movements in stock level's it would appear they may have 59 + 55 cps at the mid point less 24 cents paid in dividend in December = 90 cents per share in cash on the balance sheet at the interim reporting period, approx $54m.
Earnings of that magnitude would allow them to do a 5% share buy-back (approx $16m at the current share price spread out over the next 12 months) boosting all future year's earnings per share by 5% and still pay a circa 30 cps interim dividend.
Alternatively, they could easily increase the rate of store expansion with Glassons Au and pay as much as a 50 cps interim dividend :o
Whatever they decide to do, to your point, their balance sheet has never been a stronger fortress.
Quote from: Basil on Feb 08, 2023, 09:10 PMNice long day out on the boat so could only be bothered making time for a short pithy comment earlier.
I've posted extensively about this company already...for goodness sake please, try and keep up, there's a good chap.
HLG was a cyclical before they started expanding Glassons Au in FY17. Since then Glassons Au sales have grown from ~ $50m per annum to what I believe will be comfortably north of $200m per annum for FY23. That's quadrupled in 6 years, (just in case your calculator isn't working). They have a proven history of growing sales at a compound average growth rate of 26% per annum over 6 years since operations over there hit critical mass in early FY17 when the share price was $2.75. If not this year, certainly in FY24, Australian sales will exceed N.Z. sales.
To be crystal clear, there are two distinct era's in which HLG have operated. Before Glassons Au and after Glassons Au.
HLG N.Z. probably is still a cyclical, although, mark my words, many will be very surprised with their sales this half.
If you go back and have a look at my workings on the other site (I do not have the time to look back and check the post number for you), you will see that I believe approx 80% of the value of the shares lies in Glassons Au (a genuine growth division with huge potential in the years ahead) and only 20% of my assessed value lies with Glassons N.Z. and the Hallensteins brand.
Put another way, as I see it one division of HLG (Glassons Au) is worth 4 times the rest of the company and therefore this is a 80% growth company and 20% of the value is a cyclical.
Here's their 2017 annual report https://www.hallensteinglasson.co.nz/content/reports/Annual%20Report.pdf
That year just $50m of the $239m annual sales were from Australia, (21%). Australian sales are going to be north of $200m this year, (approx 50%). In just six years HLG has transitioned into a truly Trans Tasman company through the exceptional, sustained growth of Glassons Au. Group Sales in FY23 according to my forecast, will be nearly double what they were in FY17 and have grown steadily over the years.
When you start thinking about the fact that as at balance date FY22 Glasson Au only had exactly the same number of stores as Glassons N.Z. (36 stores each), and the fact that the Australian market is 5-6 times the size of ours and Glassons is a fresh young brand there and arguably very mature here, it's hard not to get very excited about the future of Glassons Au and the implications for growth in earnings per share in the years ahead.
Please do some reading of annual reports...Blind Freedy can see where the value of this company lies and the proven growth history and exciting growth potential ahead for Glassons Au. Disc: #1 Invested position on the NZX
You can get copies of all previous reports here https://www.hallensteinglasson.co.nz/investment-centre
All good, though not sure I would spoil a day on the boat with even briefly checking a stock discussion forum (well, I think I did on cruises, but this does not count). On smaller boats I am normally either too busy with fishing or with feeding the fish (depending on how rough the sea is ...).
Anyway - I do understand your excitement about the way the current management team does run HLG ... and I can share that excitement to a degree.
There was as well a time when I thought that their products look pretty smart ... but admittedly, I found this years selection a bit stuffy (lacking a better word), but maybe this is just me getting too old. Will be interesting to see their latest sales numbers - but I clearly don't claim that everybody has the same taste as I have ...
Looking into HLG's fundamentals - their long term (10 years) backward PE is 14.4, and this comes with a 2 percent CAGR (again over 10 years and smoothed out by my favorite spreadsheet program). Not overly dear, but not cheap either.
Obviously - the real value of a share is in its future earnings - and here we seem to differ. If they keep growing their earnings by an average of 2% per year, then I don't see where the potential for huge capital appreciation should come from (but admittedly, I am not very good in predicting the wild swings of share market hype). If however the market comes down in the coming financial year (and yes, I do believe that many people will choose to pay for the increased home loan interest instead of investing into the next peacocking event), then I expect the HLG share to do the same thing. You remember - what goes up must come down ....
But anyway - the market lives from disagreements about fundamental value ... and this is good. Lets keep the discussion civilised and allow different views (without to run them down) ... and this will stay a great stock market discussion forum reflecting the opportunities as well as the risks of any stock.
Yes your penchant for looking at 10 year growth rates is acknowledged but as you know I stick with 5 years as my standard frame of reference which encapsulates the more recent and therefore more relevant growth data.
Glassons Au is a game changer for the group and their target market is pre-teen to 30 years, few if any have a mortgage and every one of which who wants a job probably already has one with ostensibly full employment on both sides of the Tasman.
My niece is one of N.Z's leading psychologists and she told me at Christmas young people did it super hard during lockdowns...their emotional and psychological coping mechanisms are simply not as developed.
As posted recently some articles I have read outlined how people take at least as long as the period of the "oppression" to get over the event so I think we will see young people have a determination to shake off the 3 years of Covid oppression that will be sustained and enduring. That's the key difference between my long range forecast for the group and Fiordland Moose who thinks what he describes as revenge spending will tail off very soon.
I note the rate of store expansion with Glassons Au could easily be lifted from the circa 10% expansion rate that has existed in recent years with the current expected record profit and I am confident in the medium term that Glassons Au can maintain a similar CAGR of 26% per annum they have enjoyed in the last 6 years. Its likely it will be slower in FY24 but there's not going to be any "precipice" to fall off with young people's spending to enjoy themselves after 3 years of Covid drama's. Young people have a very different mindset to us and believe me they are determined to enjoy themselves and look cool to fit it, doing it. That isn't going to change any year soon. In the medium term apparel spending will revert to normal growth rates, Glassons Au will continue their store expansion and online sales growth will continue (quintupled in the last 5 years).
Glassons Au has a very very bright future a fact completely overlooked by the market which is currently pricing HLG at just (and this is not a typo) 6.8 times my forecasted FY23 earnings. Even if store sales soften a bit in FY24, in a protracted recession its currently priced below a no growth company (8.5 times) which makes no sense to me on a DCF valuation basis when you factor in long term growth for Glassons Au which will be the majority of their sales by FY24, if not earlier. This is a very mis-priced stock, not well understood due to a complete absence of broker research.
Plus we have NZX50 inclusion to look forward to at some point in the near future and in the meantime a circa 10% gross yield to enjoy which pays a lot of bills when it comes to enjoying one's hobby 8)
Quote from: Basil on Feb 09, 2023, 10:11 AMGlassons Au is a game changer for the group and their target market is pre-teen to 30 years, few if any have a mortgage and every one of which who wants a job probably already has one with ostensibly full employment on both sides of the Tasman.
True, but they do pay rent (which is going through the roof over there in Australia, up 17% in one year!) and have to buy food and pay utilities (also going through the roof). Inflation over there is 7.8%. And if they are still living at home and sponging off their parents, its a good bet their parents wallets will be slamming shut soon too.
They may also choose to direct their discretionary income to things like experiences (holidays, festival tickets, concerts etc) rather than goods (which is what many people are doing, and is why inflation is ripping in Services while disinflation is now in Goods), so you shouldnt assume that just because they still have money that their old spending patterns will remain the same in a high inflation period.
There is also the factor of competitor inventory - anyone still holding high inventory is going to need to get rid of it, which means continued discounting, so a lot depends on what Kmart and H&M etc are doing. Selling more stuff doesnt always mean making more money.
Which is not to say that HLG is going down the toilet, just that one shouldnt be too wedded to assumptions that may or may not eventuate. The stock market is full of "surprises" (that shouldnt really come as a surprise, the chart usually tells you beforehand that expectations are not great).
BP - your 10 year backward PE of 14.4
Is that inflation adjusted?
All good KW but various naysayers over the last 7 years have been telling me H&M, ABC and / or XYZ will heavily impact HLG and all have been proven wrong before.
Glassons is a young fresh brand that's growing very strongly in Australia. Yeah, headwinds ahead may stint that growth a bit in FY24 but I am not investing in this company for the next year or two years. I am investing on a look through the current headwinds basis and I think the metrics this is currently trading on suggest the market is already factoring in a worst-case hard landing for both the N.Z. and Australian economies. What if we don't get a real hard landing ? What if HLG gets included in the NZX50 index?
The bottom line behind my investment is HLG pays all the bills for a pretty fancy "puppy" I own, and I am confident it will do so for the foreseeable future.
Its an income stock so probably best suited to dividend hounds like me. In the last decade they have paid out on average 86% of earnings.
"average 86% of earnings."
and still managed to grow the business without cap raises....
its been a great trade but now with AUS dollar growth that trade is not there to the same extent.
Could probably rationalise HB in NZ and shut non performing stores but the report later next week will tell us the story.
HB NZ is the big drag question?
I believe many observers, (non holders), will be surprised by the extent of the N.Z. trading recovery in FY23 but most if not all, will not admit that and point to their theory of revenge spending and write that recovery off as a one-off event. Doubters will continue to doubt, it's simply the nature of the beast and what they do.
Hallensteins have a 150 year history of trading in N.Z. (Glassons 97 years) and aren't going to go anywhere anytime soon. That said, some store rationalisation could be possible going forward as they have proven with online Hallensteins sales in Australia they can do well without a large retail footprint there.
Oh my goodness now Winner talking about $35m this half as well as Fiordland Moose, gosh that's just on 59 cents per share this half, more than they have ever made in a full year before and this while we've had a cost of living crisis for the last 6 months. Hmmm...that 80 cents per share annual earnings I have been forecasting for FY23 for many months now, maybe is too conservative?
From memory the most they have ever paid out as an interim dividend is 24 cents per share so the question on my mind is what on earth are they going to do with all that extra money if they make nearly 60 cents in the first half as they already have heaps of cash on hand and no debt.
What could they potentially do with such remarkable first half earnings?
Pay out a record dividend? (average payout ratio last 10 years is 86%), so potential for a dividend as much as 50 cps, oh my goodness surely not!
Accelerate store footprint growth with Glassons Au?
Do a share buy-back?
Leave some of it on their balance sheet so they're in the most robust shape ever to face any challenges and opportunities ahead?
Some combination of the above seems the most likely scenario to me.
Basil .....say sales up 33% ...that'll lead to $33m extra Gross Margin ...add a few million to expenses and that gives you about $20m more than last years $12
Maybe $35m a bit stretched but jeez more than $30m this year. Cool eh
PS - Be stupid if they did a share buyback
Crunched a few numbers today on first half / second half sales and eps split over the last 6 years since FY17 and Glassons Au became profitable and hit critical mass.
FY20 and FY21 was significantly affected by Covid lockdowns but for what its worth the data is:-
FY20 sales first half 55.6% of annual total, second half 44.4%. EPS first half 56% of annual, second half eps 44%.
FY21 - Sales first half 52%, second half 48%, eps first half 60% second half 40% (40% is the lowest second half earnings v first half of any of the last 6 years)
Including these Covid affected outliers in the overall weighted average split for the last 6 years since FY17 gives the following results:-
First half weighted sales average 52% second half 48%. First half weighted eps average 55%, second half 45%
My forecast issued late last year is something I remain comfortable with at this stage and that's eps of 80 cps on annual sales growth of 24%.
Taking into account all known factors and economic forecasts I foresee sales being more heavily weighted this year to the first half than the average of the last 6 years, probably towards the mid 50% range, (up from an average of 52%) and earnings split in the mid-high 50% range for the first half (up from an average of 55%) and low to mid 40% range second half.
This suggests to me sales in the region of , (based on my annual forecast of $435m) = approx $235m this half and approx $200m in the second half.
I estimate the split of 80 cps in my forecasted earnings as 45-50 cps first half ($27 - $30m), 30-35 cps second half ($18m - $21m). (Forecasting approx $48m annual profit for FY23.
If first half eps is above 50 cps I am favorably inclined towards revising my full year forecast upwards.
think you better get out on that boat fast... weather looks terrible later next week starting on tuesday ....
dont waste another day crunching numbers if you think you got the calcuations right...
Fascinating how one reasonably considered post can generate such an auckland style deluge.
I didn't say HLG will do $35m NPAT - I said "it seems plausible HLG may achieve a 1H FY23 NPAT in the $30-35m range." In the spirit of transparency I've outlined below the back of envelope calculation that got me to this
Revenue
PCP sales were $170.6m, heavily impacted by transtasman lockdowns and the omni spike in Australia in Jan/Feb. Dec22 trading update showed ~41% growth for the first 19 months of the HY relative to the PCP. 19 months represents 72.9% of the 26weeks in a HY, if trading was unseasonal. To account for seasonality I assume it represents ~85% (to reflect the seasonal demand leading to xmas). For the remaining 7 weeks of the HY I eyeballed the 3 various divisions, guesstimated their growth to arrive at a weighted average, then did a weighted average calc for the two periods (41%*85%)+(remaining period weighted ave * 15%). Got me to around 36.5% growth for the HY, or about $232m
Gross Profit / Gross Margin
For convention just used 57.9%. Thought about adjusting some of the divisional GP's down to reflect pricing pressure, but thought perhaps even if with some compression the weighted average GP could stay the same or slightly increase given the increased proportionate contribution from Glassons AU. So, left it. Too much brain damage thinking about freight rates, pricing power & cost recover, commodity prices, varying GPs by division, discounting, etc. Numerical precision isn't necessarily that important particularly when thinking about an outcome within a certain range, but the GP margin will one of the big swingers to the actual result relative to my assumptions here.
Cost of Doing Business
Again for convention for a half year period, I just thought of this as everything between GP and PBT - & that # is $81.9m. Last years result included $1.94m of covid subsidies and a non disclosed but tangible amount of rent relief. So for convention I just assumed $2m. So my normalised CODB baseline becomes $85.8m which I roll forward at about 5.5% (CODB inflation often less than headline inflation), then tack on an incremental $200k in net bank interest income. There were 3 net new store openings during the year, assumed 1.5 of that on an average basis, and I reckon it costs about $350k kiwi to operate a store in AU on an annualised basis (rent, wages, other), so on an average store basis an extra $263k. Total CODB about 90.6m
Gets me to PBT of 44.2. Average effective tax rate of 29%. NPAT of 31.3m. Probably optimistic in a few areas, bearish in a few others, played around, net net, and thought well above $30m feels plausible, but to a limit, which $35m felt about right.
and no, this isn't something that "just occurred to me" - recently concluded a very successful asx listed retail apparel investment, and have strong linkages into the sector. what I find fascinating are the number of my colleagues telling me they are reducing their stock purchases. Lead times have been all over the place the last 6 months anywhere from time of order to blue water delivery out of asia into australia at between 3-6months, and given that leadtime a lot of apparel companies have been slowing their purchases more than what they thought only a few months ago. Nothing dramatic but indicative and expect to continue to ramp down their purchasing models in subsequent intervals. As true as gravity, you can't sell what you don't stock.
I'm pretty certain I said in my post I thought the share price could increase when the results were out, but that underlying activity could cumulatively release over a 18-24 month period which I thought could be reflected in the SP. SP shoots up, & SP can deflate back down and potentially quite significantly..., nothing particularly controversial in airing that opinion.
Some good thoughts guys and thanks for sharing. Two other factors that will come into play IMO are the cannibalisation of online sales as Nz/Oz stores reopen versus last year. Also the NZD/USD was high in FY22 falling from something starting with 0.7 and touching on something starting with 0.5 before rebounding to low 0.6s. That will hurt NZ margins unless they managed to lock in nice forward rates and/or dodged a bullet with smart buying and managed stock turns. As FM says delivery times ex Asia are all over the place and freight rates have not abated considerably in my experience. It's all about the GP.
thanks ferg - the kiwi/usd and aussie/usd cross rates key too, which aren't featured in my calc as I did it before the drop in the ccy. I should have noted the 57.9% GP margin I assumed was last years, used by way of convention. Glassons AU has better margins than the other two divisions so just assumed for simplicity sake if glassons is producing more, it could more or less offset other pressures.
ha and just re read my post #448...when i say the first 19 months of the half year, i mean 19 weeks. oops.
Quote from: Fiordland Moose on Feb 10, 2023, 12:11 AMthanks ferg - the kiwi/usd and aussie/usd cross rates key too, which aren't featured in my calc as I did it before the drop in the ccy. I should have noted the 57.9% GP margin I assumed was last years, used by way of convention. Glassons AU has better margins than the other two divisions so just assumed for simplicity sake if glassons is producing more, it could more or less offset other pressures.
ha and just re read my post #448...when i say the first 19 months of the half year, i mean 19 weeks. oops.
Need to take into account NZD/AUD as well as growing percetage of business now done in AUD and they need to bring those back to NZ
Hey Basil - you admired the detail in Mainfreights update yesterday
You need to drop an email to your accountant mate at HLG to do the same
Else all we will get next week is total group sales and the guess for total group profit
You'd think that as a minimum they'd be able to tell what segment sales have been even if the profit figure is stil a guess.
Otherwise you need to wait until entil end of March to see if what Glassons AU growth has been and how surpeisingly well NZ has done
HLG record full year profit is the $33.3m in F21.
So whatever H123 is - $30m to $35m - its an amazing result - making in 6 months what they've done in a record full year
Lets say NPAT is $32m - hope they headline the announcement like this
'Hallenstein Glassons increase first half NPAT by 166%
But they too modest for that I reckon
Quote from: winner (n) on Feb 10, 2023, 08:10 AMHLG record full year profit is the $33.3m in F21.
So whatever H123 is - $30m to $35m - its an amazing result - making in 6 months what they've done in a record full year
Lets say NPAT is $32m - hope they headline the announcement like this
'Hallenstein Glassons increase first half NPAT by 166%
But they too modest for that I reckon
Hope the punters are lapping up the expectations.
I have a few shares bought at good prices to feed them!
Can't wait!
Quote from: winner (n) on Feb 09, 2023, 11:24 AMBP - your 10 year backward PE of 14.4
Is that inflation adjusted?
Interesting question.
I guess when I started this system inflation was around 1% - i.e. no point to worry about it. At this stage, it might be worthwhile to consider it. On the other hand - given that its the same inflation for all companies and I use the value just to compare - why bother?
So - no - it is not, and I am not sure I see a reason to change this :) ;
Quote from: winner (n) on Feb 10, 2023, 08:10 AMHLG record full year profit is the $33.3m in F21.
So whatever H123 is - $30m to $35m - its an amazing result - making in 6 months what they've done in a record full year
Lets say NPAT is $32m - hope they headline the announcement like this
'Hallenstein Glassons increase first half NPAT by 166%
But they too modest for that I reckon
The Chairman will keep doing his news releases in the same manner he's always done. Listed in 1947 so pretty old school style of news releases.
I like the understated way they go about things. Done enough work and debating on this for now...most people will already have their own pre-conceived notions of how this will play out in the years ahead but If I'm somewhere near the mark with eps of 80 cps this year that puts them on a FY23 PE of 6.9 at yesterday's closing price which I think is exceptionally cheap for a company with such clear growth prospects in the years ahead so I got to thinking about the price relativity with other retailers overnight.
Interesting comparing the metrics of listed N.Z. companies I follow with no international growth opportunities like Glassons has.
According to market screener average analyst forecast WHS are on an FY23 PE of 10.6 and Briscoes on 12.1....compared to 6.9 for HLG. Hmmm
Currency is currently sitting at about the 10 year average against the US.
Stats NZ Electronic Card Spend for January
Westpac notes: The rebound in spending was spread across categories. There were sizeable increases in durables spending (+5%), hospitality spending (+10%) and apparel spending (+4%).
Cash registers still ringing in the rag trade
Heard on radio that up north a lot of clothes are getting turfed as a result of the floods ....who wants to keep drowned smelly clothes ...yuk
Might keep HLG stores busy
though winner would be all over the retail rebound...
hamilton was deserted this afternoon and not a police patrol in site... at 4 PM.. no knive wheeling hooded bandits in sight.
maybe everyone was rushing to a beach..
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/131195362/strong-start-to-2023-as-spending-hits-record--but-it-may-not-last
Quote from: Basil on Nov 21, 2022, 10:36 AMGot to thinking seeing as I have a few of these on board now I'd better do a proper forecast.
Remember sales YTD as announced are up more than 68%, (albeit augmented by a lockdowns in the first 8 weeks last period that did not repeat this period).
Here are my key assumptions.
1. Sales growth of 7% due to price increases in line with inflation.
2. Sales growth of 10% relative to last year due to the fact that there were extensive store closures for a considerable period of time last year on both sides of the Tasman.
3. Real growth in sales not related to price increases or Covid bounce-back 7%, (I have deliberately kept this very conservative notwithstanding extra stores from last year open for the full 12 month period, growth in online sales including into America and growth in stores this year).
Total sales for the year forecasted as 24% growth from $351m to $435.5m
4. Cost of sales and gross profit the same 57.5%, acknowledge currency differences but freight will be lower this year and they maintained gross margin really nicely last year with extremely elevated freight costs. Also I expect there will be less need for discounting this year due to sales growth depleting inventory more quickly but I will stick with a GP margin as per the last 2 years of 57.5% Gross profit forecasted at $250.8m
5. Selling expenses will grow in line with inflation 7% + 2 % extra for more stores this year, (no extra stores for Hallensteins or Glassons N.Z., assume 4 more stores for Glassons Au), $126.9m grows to $138.4m
6. Distribution expenses grow in line with increased sales, up 24%
7. Administration expenses grow at the inflation rate 7% + 4% extra, assume some extra staff required to handle admin related to the growth of the business.
8. Finance income jumps nicely this year (Interest earned on $35M in the bank as at balance date and growing during the year will be much higher than last year's interest income)
I'm going on the record forecasting $67m before tax or just on $48m after tax = 80.7 cps.
That sort of profit along with only paying our 2 x 24 cent divvies would allow them a lot of reserve from this year to really accelerate their store opening program with Glasson's Au and supercharge future years growth.
Let's see how we go.
Repost of 21 November 2022 post for anyone interested in how I got to my forecast.
Today I am raising my interim dividend forecast to 30 cps which represents a 62% payout ratio of my forecasted earnings for 1H.The shares trade cum this dividend in ~ 2 months' time, (mid-April)
I note that removing the Covid year outliers their average payout of 1H earnings over the last 4 years is 82% so there is plenty of scope for a much higher dividend. Including Covid year outliers the weighted average payout ratio of the last 6 years is 75% with the lowest year being the shock 2020 year when Covid first hit, and the interim dividend was prudently delayed for several months and represented just 58% of earnings.
I note the previous highest interim divvy payout was 23 cps in FY21 whcih represented 69% of eps in that period so there is a tendency when eps is high to payout a lower amount, (this is a practice known as "dividend smoothing")
One or two other reasons they would hold back a higher amount of earnings this time is so they have an even stronger balance sheet to withstand any challenges ahead and also to take advantage of opportunities as they arise including potentially cheaper lease deals on faster store expansion in Australia. (Capex on fit-out of each new store is not an insignificant sum).
I think it's very unlikely they will do a share buy-back but because it's a tax efficient way to go about things, (holders can sell up to 5% of their holdings as the potential buy-back unfolds over the next year and not dilute their future years earnings per share), I will commit to running the idea past the directors on behalf of other shareholders if their interim profit guidance is more or less in line with my thinking.
I've sent them an email that they would be doing passionate shareholders / fandom a disservice if they don't report segment sales next week
Waiting a further 6 weeks or so to see the breakdown is unacceptable these days.
No harm in asking and hopefully they see your point of view.
I liked your post in the other place...I am sure you won't mind me re-posting it here.
QuoteHey FiordlandMoose when you say ' it seems plausible HLG may achieve a 1H FY23 NPAT in the 30-35m' you could be right on the mar
Amazing performance - that would mean that HLG made as much NPAT in six months than they made in a record full year
Why shouldn't some be excited about the prospects - doing more in six months than in a record full year is some effort
Pity some other companies that punters have huge faith in don't perform like this .... or in some cases even turn in a profit
Very well said Sir! Their previous record interim profit was in FY21 when they did $19.84m. Let's see how this half compares to that, (considering we've been in a cost of living crisis for all of the period about to be reported).
Playing around with my Abacus I've developed the following scale for grading the upcoming result.
(This is all tongue in cheek in case anyone is wondering...I am bored and simply filling in time waiting for the cyclone hammer to hit)Under $18m. D something has gone wrong here and costs must be really out of control.
$18-$20m C pass, great result but heavily impacted by extra costs so less than expected but nonetheless perfectly acceptable.
$20 - $22m C+ - Record ever profit so you have to be very happy with that considering we're in tough economic conditions.
$22 - $25m B Pass. Great to see they've really done well this half. Try and cajole, wheedle or quietly accumulate more shares on any untoward weakness or at current prices.
$25-$30m B+ The hungry and cunning hound was right; an extremely robust result and we should all be exceptionally happy with that considering the economic times we are in and the fact they have had to endure supply chain pressures and high freight rates. Accumulate shares quickly because they're dirt cheap and the company is on track to meet the hounds record ever eps forecast of 80 cps. PE of 6.9 is ludicrous for a growth company and no matter what anyone else says they think they know about the future the smart money knows, the very best guide to the future is the recent past.
$30m - $33m A+ We're off to the races, BUY all available shares you can lay your hands on before someone else does and the market wakes up to the fact this company is growing at a phenomenal pace and is on truly absurdly cheap metrics.
$33m+ A+ with honors. Oh my goodness. Having these shares is like having your own license to print money. Just empty your sharebroker call account on these immediately before others do.
Remember when Grahger got keen on HLG a few years ago .......the share price rocketed up ......and came down pretty fast when they bailed
Just imagine if Glassons performance in Oz attracted some smart value investors who could take a decent slice for a modest amount.
Somebody pointed out that an outfit DMX Asset Management are keen as mustard on MHJ ....I would not be surprised if they or similar investment managers have not been looking at HLG
That'll help the share price becoming more 'fairly' valued eh
And not beyond bounds of possibility one of those big rag traders in OZ add HLG to their portfolios ...but Glasson would want a big price eh.
That 10 bucks share price still on cards I reckon.
HLG has become an 'attractive' proposition for the monied men.
Crikey with the amounts of words Winner and Basil have expended ramping HLG lately, I certainly hope it meets their expectations....... GLH!!
You'd be forgiven for thinking Winner and I have both backed up the truck and trailer ;D
"Well positioned" is an overused phrase but seems very pertinent in this case!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xH9TRnRlAAM
when your loading up in multiple companies for trading; Automation of your trading is the KEY.
HLG will be hoping this new fashion doesn't catch on......
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-12/fast-fashion-industry-environmental-toll-amid-greenwashing/101912482
"Early in 2023, like millions of other Australians, Kate Hulett made a new year's resolution....
Fast fashion is a major problem in many developed countries
A huge amount of unwanted clothing ends up in landfill
There's a push for the clothing industry to be more accountable
Knowing it was a pledge she would struggle to keep, she put it on social media, declaring to her 8,000 followers:
"No new clothes in 2023."
Yep social media is a real threat or boon to retail... In the UK its a trend thats been underway for a while now and its a serious threat to fast fashion.
BBC did some news shows on it.
Glassons are already well and truly on to this whole ESG trend with their recycled clothing and sustainability ethos. Why else do you think they are rapidly gaining market share 8)
I applaud the brave young women making a statement with these sort of recycled items. I'd like to see more and more young women supporting such admirable things and making a bold statement about them by wearing them 8)
https://www.glassons.com/nz/c/swim
You can read all about their wonderful sustainability approach in their 52 page "Made with care" sustainability report here https://www.hallensteinglasson.co.nz/content/reports/5352_HG_SR22_v8.4_WEB.pdf
And the HLG Modern Slavery Statement
https://www.hallensteinglasson.co.nz/content/reports/Hallenstein%20Glassons%20Holding%20Ltd_Modern%20Slavery%20Statement_2022.pdf
Dont forget ...
https://environment.co/sustainable-pet-brands-your-dog-or-cat-will-love/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=sustainable-pet-brands-your-dog-or-cat-will-love
Th
Quote from: Basil on Feb 12, 2023, 03:56 PMGlassons are already well and truly on to this whole ESG trend with their recycled clothing and sustainability ethos. Why else do you think they are rapidly gaining market share 8)
I applaud the brave young women making a statement with these sort of recycled items. I'd like to see more and more young women supporting such admirable things and making a bold statement about them by wearing them 8)
https://www.glassons.com/nz/c/swim
You can read all about their wonderful sustainability approach in their 52 page "Made with care" sustainability report here https://www.hallensteinglasson.co.nz/content/reports/5352_HG_SR22_v8.4_WEB.pdf
That peach colour looks like a toned down Synlait pink.
ESG should be ESSG I reckon (the extra S is for shareholders)
8)
Quote from: Crackity on Feb 12, 2023, 06:18 PMThThat peach colour looks like a toned down Synlait pink.
ESG should be ESSG I reckon (the extra S is for shareholders)
8)
Read that 81% of Glassons swimwear is made using recycled fabric. Definitely the type of recycling I want to see more of ;D
If so, this is a remarkable achievement and management is far ahead of world trends in retail and consumer behaviours and tastes.
Quote from: Waltzing on Feb 12, 2023, 09:18 PMIf so, this is a remarkable achievement and management is far ahead of world trends in retail and consumer behaviours and tastes.
Here it is https://www.glassons.com/nz/sustainability
When's the update ....this week?
Quote from: Left Field on Feb 12, 2023, 12:58 PMHLG will be hoping this new fashion doesn't catch on......
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-12/fast-fashion-industry-environmental-toll-amid-greenwashing/101912482
"Early in 2023, like millions of other Australians, Kate Hulett made a new year's resolution....
Fast fashion is a major problem in many developed countries
A huge amount of unwanted clothing ends up in landfill
There's a push for the clothing industry to be more accountable
Knowing it was a pledge she would struggle to keep, she put it on social media, declaring to her 8,000 followers:
"No new clothes in 2023."
Why? Actually HLG are leading this trend. Their clothes are that good that you don't need to replace them for decades. The Toyota of shirts.
Still wearing some Hallenstein shirts I used to purchase in the last 1990íes ... and they are still good.
Now - this is sustainable, isn't it?
Quote from: winner (n) on Feb 13, 2023, 09:36 AMWhen's the update ....this week?
In 2020, 2021 and 2022 they issued a trading update and first half profit guidance on 17 February.
Hope KMD update bodes well for HLG's up and coming result. GLH.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/406617
Hope so LF... hope so...
Big surprise that KMD.
'Extraordinary' said Vicinity who own Chadstone Mall in Melbourne and other malls.
'Extraordinary' in respect of clothing, footwear and jewellery flying off the shelves across the country even though there's supposedly tough times for consumers
Glassons doing well I'd say
US retail data and inflation....
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/15/us-treasury-yields-investors-digest-latest-inflation-data.html
the weather here will have hit feb retail and could lower 1 QTR NZ retail.
Quote from: winner (n) on Feb 16, 2023, 08:20 AMGlassons doing well I'd say
I think your probably right winner. I'm expecting Australia to have performed well and NZ to be pretty average. Retail demand clearly been slowing in NZ last few months but probably only just starting in Australia
I'm not sure mr market is in the mood for rewarding good performance.
I think mr market is nervous and asking companies "what is coming next" with regards to increased cost of doing business and predicted slowing consumer demand.
One thing I'm noticing this reporting season is cost inflation or the cost of doing business is really starting to impact profits.
HLG low debt and strong balance sheet will put them in good stead but I'm sure their not immune to this cost inflation impacting their profit especially staff costs, freight and rent.
Hope you and Basil are rewarded for you enthusiasm for this share.
I personally think reported sales will be good but cost of doing business will be higher than many punters are picking so overall result may not be that great.
Perky ...I think many will be surprised at NZ performance in H1 ......likely to be much better than average
Yes, expenses will be one line to watch. In particular the employee costs which had been going up more than I would have liked..... and then this a reporting period when there's been no wage subsidies or rent relief so at least is an 'normalised' figure.
Go Aussi GO!
https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/extraordinary-spending-from-luxury-shoppers-boosts-vicinity-centres-outlook-20230215-p5ckp3.html
I've modeled this up with stiff increases in the cost of doing business.
Many will be surprised with N.Z. performance but as usual Glassons A.U. Will be the star performer.
Winner() have you got xcell stockhistory working re ASX: ticker?
appears to be some date ranges that dont work according to forums
got some NZX working last year
this ChatGPT is rather clever - here is it's wee ode to you Hallensteins holders on the eve of the profit guidance (all for good fun).
'Twas the night before the profit announcement,
And all through the land,
Investors were stirring, their excitement at hand.
The whole gang was present yes they were there,
Eagerly dreaming of ballooning profits beyond compare.
"Oh my goodness, it's dividends galore,
What goodies should I spend them on, perhaps just a few more?"
For Hallenstein Glassons had a stellar year,
Operating without lockdowns or Covid fear.
Their tills were running red, their online sales bustling,
Glassons Australia was firing red hot, it was nothing short of astounding.
New Zealand was more modest, but not shot,
For Hallenstein Glassons was a company that gave it all they've got.
Their future was bright, their prospects grand,
And the investors knew that they had a winning hand.
They could hardly wait for the morning light,
To see what treasures the profit announcement would ignite.
And when the dawn broke, and the announcement was there,
The investors cheered, for the results were so good it didn't seem fair.
Record half-year profits, dividends to be had,
The investors were thrilled, they were overjoyed, they were glad.
Their financial dreams fulfilled, their hearts overjoyed,
Their anxiety was washed, and downsides now seemed void.
So let us raise a glass to Hallenstein Glassons,
For they've made a loyal band of investors, overjoyed!
So let us raise a glass to Hallenstein Glassons
as they continue to sell teens hot fashions
used overjoyed 3 times.
and open AI will be useful when it can process FA results from Tagged objects and untill them its just a big N NET.
as Munger said... its over hyped.. still impressive stuff those N Nets.
Quote from: Waltzing on Feb 16, 2023, 10:32 PMSo let us raise a glass to Hallenstein Glassons
as they continue to sell teens hot fashions
used overjoyed 3 times.
and open AI will be useful when it can process FA results from Tagged objects and untill them its just a big N NET.
as Munger said... its over hyped.. still impressive stuff those N Nets.
that's a much better ending (good thing you didn't phrase it hot teen's fashions). time for you to start contributing to openAI basecode
thanks FF... your right ... ooops ... your ending does sound better thought.
Maybe N Nets arnt as good as humans after all and TV script writing teams will be around for a while. Team effects are best.
No im not the maths guy on our language base development .
N Nets are math models.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_neural_network
busy developing transaction processing models for OMC and Accounting models at the moment.
Well, that's a shocker. Only $20m odd
Margins and expenses obviously a big problem
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/406851/388704.pdf
about what was expected.
Still increase in REV Winner()....
increase....
? glad we did not back up any trailers, UTES...more like an MX 5 this time....lots of Rate HIkes to come...
those badly formatted financials with no tagged objects will reveal all...
The Company advises that total Group sales for the six-month period ended 1 February 2023 were $223.3 million, an increase of 30.9% over the prior corresponding period ($170.6 million).
Group profit after tax is projected to be in the range of $20.5 million to $21.0 million, an increase of approximately 74.3% over the prior year ($11.9 million.)
That's sadly underwhelming given the build up...insert deflating balloon sound.
Outstanding result from HLG given very tough trading environment.
NPAT going to be up ~35% from just before covid times.
Well done management for continued growth.
SP should head above $6
Would not expect SP to move up much surely but DIV should still be plenty.
plenty of head winds but sale in AUS probably the sunny bit.
A 'c' pass - using the previously posted score card. That'd probably be merit in NCEA but it's only satisfactory really. Share price might get a small bump but looking forward this does not inspire...hard to see it going on a gallop. Of course, stranger things have happened.
Where is Basil? Must be on the phone with the broker lol
C+ Record ever interim profit so you have to be happy with that considering we're in tough economic times.
About 35 cps. Revised full year estimate 60 to 65 cps, FY23 PE about 8.5. Cost of doing business and or margins look tougher than I thought.
Still on track for record profit and record dividend payout.
might be able to buy at under 5 for a huge yield and div..
back to 4.70 or under if the margins are tough
market not going to go crazy on retail for the next 12 months or more..
it cyclical ... back to buy when inflation is high and sell when low... its a trade just like its always been or a DIV play.
Seems lower margins and much higher expenses than many expected
Throwing a few numbers around
GM pcp was 57.9% and here's a few possibilities of what have happened
57% GM / expenses up 20%
56% GM / expenses up 17%
55% GM / expenses up 14%
Expenses seem the real problem
probably a flat SP for a while like in previous times until inflation peeks out..
Quote from: winner (n) on Feb 17, 2023, 10:17 AMSeems lower margins and much higher expenses than
Expenses seem the real problem
BROKER RECOMMENDATION- HLG
We are concerned with potential elevated expenses. Whilst we await further company financial information we recommend
Winner is to only order Pacific oysters and chips and Basil is instructed to motor at no more than 5 knots...anywhere.
We'll see if their is an upgrade to bluffies and speed restrictions can be lifted in April. 8)
AMAZING result really
Sales up 31% and NPAT up 74%
Same period - Briscoes sales up 8% and NPAT up about 5%
and 6 months to December - MHJ sales up 12% and profit up say 3%/4%
In that context HLG AMAZING performance
Didn'tmention WHS lol
Winner() probably continues to trade at a discount until it gets in the NZX 50 if it ever does...
AUS Glassons performance the saviour here?
Your number crunching is better than AI....
that AI chat was a C -..
The amazing story will see share price go up today I reckon - or be higher this time next week
great maths winner()...
back to abstract multi entity financial reporting and document automation....
Record result = C pass grade. Tough critics but i guess with the best companies they are held to a high standard.
Looks like people have got over their initial disappointment that it wasn't a stellar result - just a very good one. SP firming up to around $5.50. I would expect that to bump up further once the increased divvy is announced. Happy holder.
rate hlding over 5 till well into 24...
plenty of time to pick through the numbers and that big flat period in 13 to 17 was without AUS...
still the market discounts this stock historically which means under 5 reaps a huge div ..
world has just been through an un usually high period of supply chain shocks...
Subsequent to my forecast in November at the December annual meeting freight rates still being very elevated was mentioned so there is probably some material effect on gross margin I should have updated there.
I also think the extremely wet summer with the wettest January on record has dampened N.Z. sales as total sales undershot my expectations of $235m by more than $11m.
HLG are known to lock in forward cover on FX on committed purchases so I think a lot of this seasons stock with longer lead times for shipping was locked in the mid to high U.S.50 cents range prevailing in late Autumn and early winter. Gross margin pressure looks like the main thing I could have estimated better.
Hopeful that headwinds with currency and shipping will abate in 2H. Be nice if the appallingly bad weather would improve.
Happy long term holder.
difficult time to predict much except people will keep shopping if they can...
if farther shocks do appear or rates bring on a recession in late 23./ early 24 these prices could be cheap DIV wise for a while...
dont think there is any hurry over the next 12 months
Sales still going gangbusters
I run a 5 period sales model - each period coinciding with their announcements over the year. Estimated $ values but 'reconciles' with reported half year results.
Chart looks good
Main point is that moving annual sales have broken through the $400m mark and are now $404m
0000hlgsales.JPG
I bought some more at $5.50. Not too worried about costs/expenses as i trust management and know they will revert back to the mean eventually. its all about the sales growth which is 40% ahead of pre covid.
how did management grow so much with such headwinds. incredible
Trading Update and Profit Forecast
17/2/2022, 9:27 am MKTUPDTE
17 February 2022
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Limited
Trading Update and Profit Forecast
The Company advises that total Group sales for the six-month period ended 1 February 2022 were $170.6 million, a decrease of -6.2% over the prior corresponding period ($182.0 million).
Group unaudited profit after tax is projected to be in the range of $11.1 million to $12.1 million (prior year $19.8 million).
"how did management grow so much with such headwinds. incredible"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ld6fAO4idaI
The financial state of the company looks good, and still in good managerial hands. Whether there are a few headwinds or not, this looks like a medium to long term keeper (for now).
Betting the china oil demand and opec not increasing production will keep the FED hard down or rather upping the rates...
could hit retail in AUS later in the year as the RBA which is behind both the RBNZ and the FED has to put the breaks on the Kangas in late 2023...
5.50 might be visited again... very lumpy chart..
then in late 24 / 25 you might see a new high..
Waltz, pre covid is not feb last year lol
$5.60! You guys crunching the numbers are having an effect....
quite right ... RAWZ
Waltzingironman, sales is different to profit. your software coding is backwards today
I said in my post to look through the cogs/expenses stuff effecting margins (as naughty as that is) because management are of high caliber, so we can trust that they will revert to the mean. as long as the sales (revenue) trend line is up up up like winners chart shows then it is fine to sit around and collect to dividend and continue watching the company grow
not arguing with that Raws ... the PL has been effect by the biggest swings in supply chain and Money supply variations since when ? WW2 ?
a team of economists could comment..
RAWS last time profit NAPT half year hit 19 in 21 look where the SP was...
but as you point out margins have compressed a bit and inflation may keep them there for a while as im sure your LOOK THROUGH statement implies...
still an SP above 7 is where it should be..
MR B is well positioned ...
OMG you are right. I said SP over $6 first thing this morning but i was well wrong. its trading close to the 200dma.
could get into a nice uptrend on its way to $7 and the best part is collecting the dividends along the way ;D
thats why put the picture up of the half Year.... and at that time feb 21 OCR rates were not hitting 5!!!
we will be above 5 all this year! Hard landing ? possible the FED always gets it wrong or mostly...
Rates have a LAGGING effect and for that you need to look at M2 in the US...
we traded out the other day but thinking of backing up the Tonka Truck at 5.50....
its just with inflation lagging and RBA not yet going hard these margin compressions could last well into 24...
theory says you should have time ... but i found ONIEL the other day under a computer and HE SAYS... the longer the base line the bigger the lift off...
after all what really changed since 1988...
had lost the book for over a year!!!! Its a classic full of charts from the 1980, 90's.
get excited people... the higher the inflation rate and the harder the margins get hit the better the buying will be,
Huge Vol today 48,333
deserves to be the HOT stock on the forum today.. at the TOP!
Lets not put HLG into Chat AI....
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/16/microsofts-bing-ai-is-leading-to-creepy-experiences-for-users.html
looks like noting is going to replace specialised software any time soon...mayb thats why it used Overjoyed 3 times...
surprised it did not fall for all the models in on the web site...
its pretty clear Winner() is not going to be replaced by AI any time soon...
In fact we can conclude that AI has in fact failed.... miserably and it will now be restricted to a search engine refinement as marketing asks engineering to explain...
Creeeeeppy DONT even cover it... shut it down ... quick... will be marketings new mantra..
while this is a great result RAWZ... its the next 12 months inflation effects that as you say look through... but the market might not look through when the PL comes out and we find out where that costs ly..
then some research into where that cost is and is it going to have a material effect and for how long...
GOVT now looks like its stuffed and will blame everyone else for Infras... you know stuff they arnt built,,,
saving 10 rivers from the cop block ...who know but slips and floods and bolders will hurt no matter what..
no cut to fuel tax for long? hard choices coming
lots of people will need to replace their wardrobes as a result of floods
Mainly a lower currency and higher than expected freight rates is how I see it, both matters that will revert to more normal levels over time
Will of course need to see financial statements to confirm.
Feeling good about 2H as we lap a period where consumers were pretty scared to shop with 20,000+ cases of Covid a day.
" higher than expected freight rates is how I see it"
that is prob the one... its still a buy as should be north of 7 for th next hightif they can shut non performing NZ stores and take a knife to any fat...
might be time to buy the flying stocks..even with fuel prob going up...
$6 by end of the week? Jeez, it's $5.80 now!
This is when low liquidity helps - so few sellers, so SP goes up with a real bump on good news. If they announce an increased HY divvy - maybe as much as 30c - I reckon $6.50 should be very achievable.
"$5.80 now!"
sorry about that but thought it needed a push even if it drops back...
sometimes you just have to lend a helping hand...
it it fails and drops back we dont care...
Waltz ........shockingly amazing result = share price going up
After 6 bucks comes 7 bucks
busy going surfing today winner() and please... this is a boring stock....
all the action is hypersonic these days.... just took 50 years
just had to push to 80 to help out... your first post on a shocker ment we had to go back to older FA reports and then spilt our morning coffee seeing 21 half year...
nearly spat the dummy realising Mr B had bettered the market again getting in early....
still the big ballooning profits are going to be in the AIR in the year next 10 years..
some truelly monster fire air breathing engines out there coming to a jet air liner...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sYH3orzrItA
SP powered through the 200dma
50dma has gone through the 100dma
looks good?
its really still locked in the range 5 to 5.70ish...
if you have been trading this stock for 20 years or more you will know the market dumps it first and asks questions later....
the market has built in memory for a stock according to ONiel.. its called the slinky offect or something.
stocks return to there patterned behaviours...
Clear breakout above 200 day moving average as others have noted.
Maybe that gets KW interested ;)
Break break ... tally tally....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h-T8cnCrxO8
Quote from: Basil on Feb 21, 2023, 09:49 AMClear breakout above 200 day moving average as others have noted.
Maybe that gets KW interested ;)
There is a strong resistance level at $5.82. Plus your 50 MA is still below the 200 day MA. However, PEAD may give it a kick.
going to need some big news ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AOxCdunZnuo
Thats more like it ... some 5.20 ... hope so... 4.80 is a bargain...
Is the Dragon going to play by the rules or is the prize of world domination beyond ESG in fast fashion...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/02/21/china-mounting-economic-assault-gen-z-will-end-disaster/
pretty slim support here... 4.80 next level down. Which of course is silly but well if the numbers are good and the market has gone home ...
$5.30...on low volume
Crickets from the fanboys...are you still all holding?
I remember selling some of these a few years back at 6.45 when that Ozzie fund outfit was chasing the price up. In hindsight I sold them a bit early but it was hard getting out the door. Bought at $3.30 in 2017 so can't complain.
Problem with low volume share...it moves quickly and in chunks both ways.
Watching with interest.
Quote from: Perky on Feb 23, 2023, 06:18 PM$5.30...on low volume
"Crickets from the fanboys...are you still all holding?
I remember selling some of these a few years back at 6.45 when that Ozzie fund outfit was chasing the price up. In hindsight I sold them a bit early but it was hard getting out the door. Bought at $3.30 in 2017 so can't complain.
Problem with low volume share...it moves quickly and in chunks.
Watching with interest."
Low volume works the other way of course - can bump up very steeply with only a handful of buyers, as we've already seen. Very likely to move up again tomorrow. Good for traders but that's about it.
Quite right...I amended my post to say that...it definitely moves both ways.
Just the door...when you want to use it can get crowded all going the same way
GLTH
A few weeks back I was out cruising along the Waitemata harbour and leaned over to my friend Whome and said, if the market closed for 10 years which company do you think I would be most comfortable holding?
He knew the answer. Why? Because like me he knows Glassons Au has a fabulous future ahead of it and HLG is arguably the most reliable high dividend payers on the NZX. Where else do you get paid ~ 10% gross to enjoy solid growth?
The lack of liquidity is nuts but it is what it is...ask me if I'm going to lose any sleep over it lol
unless something terrible happen 3.30 is unlikely... but it would be a wonderful buy...
the china retail article is the future... China wont care about fast fashion... they need to fund there population..
there is where the trouble can come from in the future.. dumping of fast fashion...
Quote from: Basil on Feb 23, 2023, 06:47 PMA few weeks back I was out cruising along the Waitemata harbour and leaned over to my friend Whome and said, if the market closed for 10 years which company do you think I would be most comfortable holding?
He knew the answer. Why? Because like me he knows Glassons Au has a fabulous future ahead of it and HLG is arguably the most reliable high dividend payers on the NZX. Where else do you get paid ~ 10% gross to enjoy solid growth?
The lack of liquidity is nuts but it is what it is...ask me if I'm going to lose any sleep over it lol
How are you sleeping lately Basil?
Quote from: Clearasmud on Feb 23, 2023, 08:33 PMHow are you sleeping lately Basil?
Better now that the wind and rain has stopped and the power and internet are back on.
HLG is definitely not a stock that keeps me up at night...anything but, I just think of all those young ladies in Australia supporting me buying their skimpy outfits at Glassons and I have sweet dreams all night ;D Seriously though, a fortress balance sheet, superb management and in more recent years a well proven history of strong growth with Glassons Au...can't think of anything to worry about. The young ones are always going to want to go out and have a good time and look cool in affordable fashion doing it. ~ 7 weeks until a record sized interim dividend with partial imputation credits, bring it on.
Quote from: Basil on Feb 23, 2023, 06:47 PMA few weeks back I was out cruising along the Waitemata harbour and leaned over to my friend Whome and said, if the market closed for 10 years which company do you think I would be most comfortable holding?
He knew the answer. Why? Because like me he knows Glassons Au has a fabulous future ahead of it and HLG is arguably the most reliable high dividend payers on the NZX. Where else do you get paid ~ 10% gross to enjoy solid growth?
The lack of liquidity is nuts but it is what it is...ask me if I'm going to lose any sleep over it lol
Hmm .... with all due respect ...
but I do remember over the last couple of decades many companies which moved pretty quickly from all time darling (can't make a false step) to biggest loser - and sometimes at some stage back again.
From the top of my head WHS and (earlier AIR) spring to mind, but I am sure all of us could contribute many more relevant examples. Todays darling is nearly always some tomorrows failure.
Do you remember some as well?
Even if your current assessment of HLG is right ... predicting how they will go over the next decade appears to be pretty brave, even if this would not be just a rag trader dependent on peoples spending habits, budgets and fickle taste of fashion.
Get one season wrong or read one market wrong and you need a long time to recover ...
Anybody still remembering Pumpkin Patch?
Sure I've made a few mistakes along the way BP, who hasn't, although I would hasten to point out I sold out WHS at over $4 recently and very clearly called the top. Glassons has been around for 98 years and Hallensteins for 150 years. HLG is N.Z's oldest listed company.
Have a look at their dividend history for the last 20 years or so. There's none better.
Have a look at the strong track record of growth with Glassons Au over the last 7 years.
No debt, Tim Glassons decades of experience, James Glasson building a superb track record of strong growth in Australia...I could go on but it's all been said before as have your very repetitive aspersions.
Quote from: Basil on Feb 24, 2023, 09:34 AMSure I've made a few mistakes along the way BP, who hasn't, although I would hasten to point out I sold out WHS at over $4 recently and very clearly called the top. Glassons has been around for 98 years and Hallensteins for 150 years. HLG is N.Z's oldest listed company.
Have a look at their dividend history for the last 20 years or so. There's none better.
Have a look at the strong track record of growth with Glassons Au over the last 7 years.
No debt, Tim Glassons decades of experience, James Glasson building a superb track record of strong growth in Australia...I could go on but it's all been said before as have your very repetitive aspersions.
Sad you choose to go down this track. Witch hunt anyone?
I try to provide from time to time some balance to your frequently highly repetitive and often one sided posts. Does this make me repetitive?
And aspersion? Really? I encourage you to find out the definition of this word you are accusing me of ... and then to provide evidence for me doing that.
Or do you consider it already as "attack on your reputation or integrity" if somebody disagrees with your views of the world?
Quote from: Basil on Feb 24, 2023, 09:34 AMas have your very repetitive aspersions.
Yeah, totally unecessary.
Quote from: entrep on Feb 24, 2023, 03:10 PMYeah, totally unecessary.
.......and not on topic either
But as BP often tells us one can't predict the future so we don't really know if basil is right and HLG will continue to bloom and be a great investment
If it means anything I reckon it will be ......and some on here will be grateful for basils input .......and some will have missed out but that'll be OK as many of those are gurus as well and have loaded up on other cheap stocks
Universal Stores in Oz reported H1 yesterday ........boomer of a half as the younger ones just keep buying clothes
And they are pretty bullish for the rest of 2023.
Glassons will be enjoying it as well ...well enough to boost HLG group sales close to $450m ..wow
Liked these snippets from UNI -
Balance sheet strength underpins strategic flexibility. ...that's HLG position too.
H2 FY23 trading update and outlook and they said first seven weeks of H2 sales up 14% .....HLG will be saying much the same in a months time. Cool eh
All looking good for HLG
Quote from: winner (n) on Feb 24, 2023, 03:42 PMUniversal Stores in Oz reported H1 yesterday ........boomer of a half as the younger ones just keep buying clothes
And they are pretty bullish for the rest of 2023.
Glassons will be enjoying it as well ...well enough to boost HLG group sales close to $450m ..wow
Liked these snippets from UNI -
Balance sheet strength underpins strategic flexibility. ...that's HLG position too.
H2 FY23 trading update and outlook and they said first seven weeks of H2 sales up 14% .....HLG will be saying much the same in a months time. Cool eh
All looking good for HLG
There is a month mismatch in reporting periods...the UNI half year result was 31 December, HLG's is 1 February. That doesn't sound like much (and indeed in normal times, it's not, and UNI is a good read through for Glassons AU), but in the context of the first 7 weeks of their H2, much of that is already recorded in HLG's half year. Australia experienced a particularly gnarly omnicrom spike in January so the PCP comps are rather impressive. 4 of those 7 weeks are already included within HLG's profit announcement.
Look very consistent building a base here..
To succeed in the post Covid new norm a retailers need to
1 -Build on the new and innovative experiences retailers offered their customers that resulted in their success during lockdown.
2 - A robust strategy for merging digital technologies within brick-and-mortar stores.
3 - Use the data that show the long-term impact COVID-19 has had on shopping habits and consumers' expectations to refine marketing and selling strategies
4 - Maintain a high level of control to meet the needs of both today's and future customers.
I reckon HLG get a Big Tick against all these
Onwards and upwards ......... strong sales growth ..... higher profits .....fatter dividends .....and a share price that actually reflects great performance
Now Winner() just when we though AI was restricted to the lab and might soon be locked up... this comes along and ...
Is that shop assistence enhanced or even human...
https://www.stuff.co.nz/technology/300815307/scientists-invent-flexible-skin-that-allows-robots-to-touch-and-feel-as-humans-do
which has got me thinking... our machine isnt AI powered but it is plugable...
I keep hearing that HLG is a cyclical stock but the likes of OCA are not cyclical
Interesting chart HLG v OCA last 5 years. Seems that HLG has done 'better' in recent times
Conclusion - if HLG is seen as a cyclical dog of a stock then OCA is even more of a cyclical dog of a stock
Both seen (in different quarters) as cheap so if deciding between the the two it probably is better bet to go with HLG with its beta of 0.93 v OCA beta of 0.73 ...as well on fundamentals you'd have to say HLG is the better bet as well.
0000ocahlg.JPG
and NZ 50 over HLG?
EBOS was the winner()...
Quote from: winner (n) on Feb 25, 2023, 01:39 PMI keep hearing that HLG is a cyclical stock but the likes of OCA are not cyclical
Interesting chart HLG v OCA last 5 years. Seems that HLG has done 'better' in recent times
Conclusion - if HLG is seen as a cyclical dog of a stock then OCA is even more of a cyclical dog of a stock
Both seen (in different quarters) as cheap so if deciding between the the two it probably is better bet to go with HLG with its beta of 0.93 v OCA beta of 0.73 ...as well on fundamentals you'd have to say HLG is the better bet as well.
[url="https://stocktalk.co.nz/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=682;type=preview;file"]0000ocahlg.JPG[/url]
Cool chart but doesn't tell the whole picture because it doesn't include dividends and HLG pays HUGE dividends. When I recall you and I first bought in back in August 2016 at about $2.75 it was on a 15% gross yield. Since then it's about doubled and all that yield every year has been phenomenal.
By comparison OCA listed 9 months after that, has paid about a 5% unimputed yield and the share price has gone backwards, really badly for those who subscribed to the cash issue and DRIP.
Since FY16 Glassons Au sales have grown from $41m to circa $200m this year.
Calling a company with that phenomenal growth over the years with its Australian sales a cyclical is laughable.
Yep, forgot about those huge HLG divies over the years
They say markets are forward looking ..... that chart of HLG v OCA is saying future prospects of HLG far better than OCA
Quote from: winner (n) on Feb 25, 2023, 01:39 PMI keep hearing that HLG is a cyclical stock but the likes of OCA are not cyclical
Interesting chart HLG v OCA last 5 years. Seems that HLG has done 'better' in recent times
Conclusion - if HLG is seen as a cyclical dog of a stock then OCA is even more of a cyclical dog of a stock
Both seen (in different quarters) as cheap so if deciding between the the two it probably is better bet to go with HLG with its beta of 0.93 v OCA beta of 0.73 ...as well on fundamentals you'd have to say HLG is the better bet as well.
0000ocahlg.JPG
Just wondering - who is telling you that property stocks (and OCA is one of them) are not cyclical - or did you just make that bit up?
Of course, they are .... real estate is cyclical and REITS are moving with the cycle, as they should.
Quote from: Basil on Feb 25, 2023, 03:10 PM...
Calling a company with that phenomenal growth over the years with its Australian sales a cyclical is laughable.
It appears you don't understand the meaning of "cyclical". Maybe you should just look it up.
In a month or so time when result is announced they will also say -
"Group sales for the first seven weeks of the second half of year are X% ahead of the same period last year."
I reckon X% will be 11.2% (based on what some OZ retailers have said, retail organisation feedback, field visitsand Westpac commentary as inputs into my HLG 'seasonality' model) .....the sales momentum continues
And the market will say heck that's good and I can still get a big divie and share price will go up
"I reckon X% will be 11.2% "
whow whow wow... W OOO W
this share price usually goes .... where ever it likes...
hope down..... then up... but is the market stupid?
Quote from: BlackPeter on Feb 25, 2023, 05:06 PMIt appears you don't understand the meaning of "cyclical". Maybe you should just look it up.
You can't or don't want to understand that there are two different parts to the business. N.Z. which is a mature cyclical operation and Glassons Au which is a growth company that's grown every year for the last 8 years. There's none so blind as those that will not see.
Hey Winner me ol mate, do you want to post a chart of the last 6 months. Looks pretty interesting to me.
Quote from: Basil on Feb 28, 2023, 08:27 AMYou can't or don't want to understand that there are two different parts to the business. N.Z. which is a mature cyclical operation and Glassons Au which is a growth company that's grown every year for the last 8 years. There's none so blind as those that will not see.
Hey Winner me ol mate, do you want to post a chart of the last 6 months. Looks pretty interesting to me.
Like like a reasonable uptrend ....you know, higher lows etc etc
Retail collapse soon?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/mortgage-shock-900fortnight-rise-forecast-for-many-aucklanders-westpac/TRTZGH7KEFEAXKHADVDBIBHIIY/
Quote from: Waltzing on Feb 28, 2023, 08:56 AMRetail collapse soon?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/mortgage-shock-900fortnight-rise-forecast-for-many-aucklanders-westpac/TRTZGH7KEFEAXKHADVDBIBHIIY/
re sensationalism ... shame on you for even reading, let alone posting a link :)
Remind you waltz ... in this century $ retail sales on an annual basis have never declined
"re sensationalism ... shame on you"
its the NZ Herald!!!
isnt one supposed to support local content...
What time line are we to think about here..?
Quote from: BlackPeter on Feb 25, 2023, 05:06 PMIt appears you don't understand the meaning of "cyclical". Maybe you should just look it up.
I think we all understand what cyclical means where a stock follows the trend of the macroeconomy it operates in ie in HLG's case, the whole retail sector.
However what has been identified by ST guru posters is a division of HLG ie Glassons AU, that has successfully implemented a clear growth strategy against the general trend at a time when there is cause for pessimism about recession within the larger retail sector.
As both Basil and Winner have pointed out and have presented some forecasts of their own (not advice) that Glassons AU have nailed a marketing strategy for clothing for the younger demographic that is more attractive to their target market than their competitors, and compounded that strategy with a carefully crafted expansion program of 3 new stores pa into a potential Oz market that is x6 larger than NZ. The company is run skilfully by people with a 20% s/h'ing skin in the game, and all of that achieved with NO debt. That is called growth and has little to do with the state of the macroeconomy however cyclical it may be.
Add to that a gross divi of 10%, the possibility of 80% imputation credits, possible inclusion in NZX50 ... and I too see a probable lift in HLG share price and that is why a decent portion of my holdings are with HLG.
We have to acknowledge cyclical trends, but blindly following them doesn't cut it for me -it's like always looking backwards. I may as well just put my funds in an ETF and walk away - how boring. I prefer to look 6 months ahead, use FA continuously, TA to keep me grounded, and carefully take into consideration the opinions (not advice) of those who can analyse financial data far better than I can, and for that I am appreciative of the ST contributors.
V well expressed perspectives Whome.
There's nothing stopping a cyclical business from also being a growth business - they aren't mutually exclusive. Can a business sensitive to ups and downs of the economic cycle continue to grow earnings through cycle by executing on a well developed growth plan - of course. A bit of a storm in the teacup over the use of the word cyclical.
Quote from: Fiordland Moose on Feb 28, 2023, 11:02 AMV well expressed perspectives Whome.
There's nothing stopping a cyclical business from also being a growth business - they aren't mutually exclusive. Can a business sensitive to ups and downs of the economic cycle continue to grow earnings through cycle by executing on a well developed growth plan - of course. A bit of a storm in the teacup over the use of the word cyclical.
Quite funny discussion. Anybody bothered to look at the SP development of HLG compared to the NZX50?
HLG vs NZX50.JPG
NZX50 lost over the last 2 years 4%.
HLG lost over the last 2 years 26%;
Clearly - there is a term for people who love to suffer, but I must admit, I prefer other joys in life, so maybe I better leave this discussion with all the amazing lectures for the people who do.
HLG is a very bumpy chart...technical term...
And punters are loving buying new clothes .....must look nice eh
From that ABS stuff today re January sales - Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing rose 6.5% ($181.0m) in January, in seasonally adjusted terms.
That's seasonally adjusted - compared to Jan 22 sales were up 17.8%
That's what helped HLG report such big sales for half year to January
But the desire to buy clothes etc is strong that the current momentum will last through winter
Heck ..... clothing sales are rocketing in OZ ..... even stronger than all other categories
Think I might have to amend my 'eight weeks sales 11.2% more than last year' forecast
Cool chart
0000ozsales.JPG
That's more than a cool chart Winner, it's a beautiful chart.
No doubt about it, Winner is a bloody legend with his charts. 8)
Real strong clothes sales in OZ ....what momentum
And I doubt on Feb 1st they didn't say 'that's enough, no more buying clothes'
And now have get ready for things like the autumn racing carnivals .......and of course some new stuff for winter
What does this tell us about NZ and AUS...
Real Stat's man that Winner()... Pastels Award on Arts channel...
MHJ beat the pants off HLG today..
HLG didn't make the NZX50 this time ...... CHI came in at expense of RBD
Winner(), same old same old...
its never going to get this decade..
but that will make it an undervalued DIV bargain its always been.
Their time will come. In the meantime the divvy yield is awesome.
When it does MR B and if we are in the country at that time ...
we will shout the round at the Bar..
It will be a great moment for sure and well deserved..
Tony's consumers spend intentions
Must be polling the wrong people ....25% less punters cutting back on buying clothes .....can't be right
7ED65C5B-C05C-4C41-9B29-1FD19971CB13.jpeg
Young people without mortgages will continue to spend which is HLG's target demographic.
Spending data for February looks very robust to me https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/cyclone-gabrielle-had-major-influence-on-spending-last-month/IS6M7HIZRVGLXEFLLZWW5GCNBE/ I guess at some stage some of those consumers will have to make good on their intentions to cut spending., probably the ones facing mortgage cost increases of several hundred dollars per week.
well maybe they arnt travelling overseas yet to summer holidays but winter will tell if they are staying another winter here in NZ....
and buying local. But in AUS they are out and about and QKanga airlines is flying and hiring .
lot of shopping going to be happening on the East coast when the insurance money kicks in.
GDP should go UP!!!
Young ones going to buy plenty of clothes thevarticlevsays
How Gen Z is poised to shake up Australian retail ;)
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/how-gen-z-is-poised-to-shake-up-australian-retail-20230308-p5cqab.html
But this Bitcoin the comments is really cool-
Owning a small retail business my experience with Gen Z is don't welcome them as they enter the shop, don't acknowledge them, let them take as many photos as they like without asking, let them treat the shop (and you) as an online catalogue and most of all don't engage with them as it only freaks them out. They prefer to be totally ignored and not spoken to. I call it the anti-customer service requirements.
add another year to the OCR hike and Hold...
after FED Chair reaffirmed forward torch light down the mine....
not expecting HLG to do anywhere SP wise for a while and if it surprises well thats great.
I have a small HLG holding which I am topping up every chance I get so longer it stays low the better, while enjoying a great yield!
I don't think there is too much doubt this is a well run company with solid fundamentals, so even if there is a downturn in market conditions (recession, longer high inflation, etc) it probably presents further accumulation opportunities.
There should be an ex div date coming up next month that may also run the price up depending above mentioned market conditions. Nevertheless, medium to long term it's appears healthy.
Jeez the Myer man in Oz is upbeat as anything
If Myer doing well just imagine how well Glassons must be doing these days.
Might increase my 11% to 15% when HLG report "first seven weeks of the second half are up 15% on last year"
Myer report -
A bounceback in CBD retail combined with strong online sales have powered department store Myer to its best profit result in almost a decade, as boss John King flagged there is more growth to come despite the cost-of-living crunch.
King was upbeat about the sales outlook as he presented the retailer's half-year results to analysts on Thursday morning, saying the combination of resilient bricks-and-mortar store sales and online demand put the business in a strong position even in tougher trading conditions.
Stats NZ Electronic Card Spend for February
They said -
Spending rose across most of the retail spending categories. The rises were led by spending on durables (furniture, hardware, and appliances) and consumables (groceries and liquor). Durables rose $48 million (2.9 percent) while consumables increased $32 million (1.2 percent).
The only spending category that saw a decrease was apparel (clothes and shoes), down $11 million (3.0 percent).
Quote from: winner (n) on Mar 09, 2023, 02:21 PMJeez the Myer man in Oz is upbeat as anything
If Myer doing well just imagine how well Glassons must be doing these days.
Might increase my 11% to 15% when HLG report "first seven weeks of the second half are up 15% on last year"
Myer report -
A bounceback in CBD retail combined with strong online sales have powered department store Myer to its best profit result in almost a decade, as boss John King flagged there is more growth to come despite the cost-of-living crunch.
King was upbeat about the sales outlook as he presented the retailer's half-year results to analysts on Thursday morning, saying the combination of resilient bricks-and-mortar store sales and online demand put the business in a strong position even in tougher trading conditions.
8c fully franked dividend incl 4c special dividend.
Amazingly the stock hit a low of 7c three years ago!
Quote from: Clearasmud on Mar 09, 2023, 09:43 PM8c fully franked dividend incl 4c special dividend.
Amazingly the stock hit a low of 7c three years ago!
Well there's hope for MFB yet lol
screenshot-www.google.com-2023.03.10-00_30_36.png
Quote from: KW on Mar 10, 2023, 12:31 AMWell there's hope for MFB yet lol
screenshot-www.google.com-2023.03.10-00_30_36.png
You mean MFB is going below 7c lol.
The market is getting hit hard globally and that may provide one of those rare occasions where SP on these stocks does not reflect the actual returns they getting from the market...
Recently it seems like an above average amount of selling each day for this stock. What do people think about this? Something to be worried about for this stock?
well Winner() might now say its Cyclical after all....
and in the local papers are full of doom and gloom as house holds are in mortgage and sticker shock...
there are calls for the "GOVT" to do something ... anything .... now....
market is going to be down for a dew years it appear and that means its a stock pickers market and some stocks are trades and other now a 2 to 3 year hold while the market wait for the storm to pass.
to relax you can always watch "Time Team" rather than markets for a while...
Looks like a head-for-the-hills moment. Or is it head-away-from-the-hills? Can't remember. Something to do with hills.
I think the general negativity has a major influence.
;D That 'timeteam' comment seems so out of the blue; but agreed.....it's one of the late night go to relaxation programs. :)
Interim accounts/dividend announced this Friday. Fingers crossed!
Yes really looking forward to Friday 31 March, dividend announcement and amount of imputation credit will be of huge interest as well as sales 2H to date and any insights into their expansion plans with Glassons Au they give us.
They appear very well placed for NZX50 index inclusion at some point this year too, (more on that tomorrow)
PMV delivered great results today.
"Apparel Brands – All brands delivering growth The Group's five iconic Apparel Brands collectively delivered record sales for the half of $452.8 million, an increase of 14.3% on 1H22 and up 15.1% on 1H20. The Apparel Brands traded from 26 less stores in 1H23 when compared to 1H20. Just Jeans, Portmans and Dotti all delivered record first half results. Jacqui E delivered its highest first half sales result in over a decade, and Jay Jays delivered its second best first half sales result in the past decade. "
While Aussie fashion apparel sales seems to be still going gangbusters, a word of caution was uttered by the David Jones CEO
"David Jones chief executive Scott Fyfe fears the Reserve Bank's last two interest rate hikes have begun to cause consumers some pause for thought before they make a purchase, especially for some of the department store's luxury fashion and apparel items that are exhibiting a slight pullback in growth.
However some of that shine coming off the retail sector is being countered by a return of the Chinese shopper, Mr Fyfe has revealed, with David Jones seeing higher sales and activity across Chinese payment platforms Alipay and China UnionPay."
Aust Retail stats for February
Clothing sector up 6% on February last year
So Glassons AU will be doing better than that (share gains) - more than solid start to HLG financial year
Quote from: winner (n) on Mar 28, 2023, 04:51 PMAust Retail stats for February
Clothing sector up 6% on February last year
So Glassons AU will be doing better than that (share gains) - more than solid start to HLG financial year
Fabulous. 2H should be trucking along really well for Glassons Au.
Expecting a partially imputed dividend of 23-30 cents to be declared on Friday and paid in mid April.
First dibs on part of that dividend goes to my new doggie Tony the Pony for a new jacket for his winter walks. He's caramel colored and very large so feel free anyone to PM me with suggestions with a link...looking for something that is colour coordinated for him. A warm Tan jacket with black or white trim would be nice. Don't think Glassons sell those lol
Hmmm, going on their div history and stated Aussie expansion objectives, I think a range of 16 to 23 cps is more likely. Of course, I'm happy to take higher if they pay it! As to pimpin your pooch, such pampering would make him a laughing stock with all the dogs on the East Coast. Randy the Dandy might have been a better moniker!
Two more sleeps to the HLG reveal. A divi of 23cps should see a good lift in sp. Sitting on a current PE 12.62 .... Add to that a nice imputation credit story, their growth plans in Aus and no bank debt hanging over them should push them up another peg or so towards NZX50 inclusion. Lots to like.
Basil, Tony the Pony might like a nice bonnet to shade his eyes from the sun on those long walks. Could start a new doggie fashion trend!
Key number to look out for on Friday is Glassons AU sales number
Have they maintained that 25% CAGR
Whatever, if it ha fallen to 20% pa still a great result looking forward
Share price will go up tomorrow by about what the dividend is .....always does this
And if sales to date this brilliant and they have a positive outlook share price possibly over 6 bucks next week
Quote from: winner (n) on Mar 30, 2023, 07:14 PMAnd if sales to date this brilliant and they have a positive outlook share price possibly over 6 bucks next
Next what winner - day, week month year?? :)
Quote from: Jay on Mar 30, 2023, 08:20 PMNext what winner - day, week month year?? :)
....week
Quote from: winner (n) on Mar 30, 2023, 07:14 PMShare price will go up tomorrow by about what the dividend is .....always does this
And if sales to date this brilliant and they have a positive outlook share price possibly over 6 bucks next week
I have my shares ready for you at $6.00.
Come and get them!
Quote from: Teitei on Mar 31, 2023, 09:00 AMI have my shares ready for you at $6.00.
Come and get them!
''''and you'll miss out on the price going to 7 bucks
Quote from: winner (n) on Mar 31, 2023, 09:05 AM''''and you'll miss out on the price going to 7 bucks
No sweat. Always leave something for the next holder.
Ok the BOYS and GIRLS are probably running the numbers right now....
Lovely day and some people will be boating...
boy if that is margin compression ....
31 March 2023
HALLENSTEIN GLASSON HOLDINGS LIMITED
UNAUDITED RESULTS FOR 6 MONTHS ENDED 1 FEBRUARY 2023
The Company advises that Group sales for the six months to 1 February 2023 were $223.29 million, an increase of 30.9% over the corresponding period last year ($170.63 million). Net profit after tax was $20.83 million (unaudited), an increase of 74.8% over the corresponding period last year ($11.91 million). The result is in line with the guidance announced to the NZX on 17 February 2023.
Gross margin on sales was 56.5% compared with 57.9% in the prior corresponding period. Margin was pressured during the season by the USD exchange rate and higher than normal freight costs. Freight costs have been coming down in the new season but are still not at pre‐covid levels. During the financial period the business continued to focus on cost controls given the rapidly increasing inflation both locally and globally, reducing operating costs where possible. Inventory levels have increased in order to alleviate disruption from freight delays but continued to be well managed to preserve liquidity.
The current financial reporting period has not been materially impacted by COVID‐19. Comparatively, trade in the first half of the 2022 financial year was significantly disrupted by the COVID‐19 pandemic, with 5,432 lost trading days across the Group.
Segment Results
Glassons
Sales in Australia were $102.89 million for the six‐month period, which were up 43.1% against the prior corresponding period. During the season a new store was opened in Macarthur Square, Sydney, while the Pacific Fair store in Queensland has been extended and refurbished. Further refurbishments are underway, and there are currently a number of sites being reviewed for potential openings in Australia to further expand the business. Glassons Australia made a significant contribution to the overall Group profit results.
Sales in New Zealand were $60.62 million, which were up +13.4% against the same period last year. The lockdowns in New Zealand in the prior year significantly impacted the results of the in‐store performance. There is continued focus on technology and the effectiveness of being omni channel with an increase in investment to support the digital strategy. During the season the Botany store in Auckland was refurbished, and further refurbishments are planned in the next six months.
Glassons continues to lead the way as a fashion brand and has been able to respond with agility to customer demand while remaining relevant in the markets it trades within. Glassons is looking to continue the expansion of the physical store presence in Australia where reasonable and invest in digital in both markets.
might be a buy after all..
SR B is clearing the heads and setting sail for the Bay of Islands.. then ....
First Impressions
A very solid result towards the top end of guidance range of $20.5 - $21m at $20.83m up 74.8% on last year. Record first half eps of 34.91 cps
Record interim dividend of 24 cps partially imputed - (approx 45% imputed) which is bang in line with my expectations.
Gross margin declined 140 bps due to currency and freight costs but they noted freight costs are coming down in the new season which is encouraging.
Glassons Au sales up 43.1% to $102.89m. Wow! Now accounts for 46% of group sales.
Hallensteins sales incl Aust up 32%. From the annual meeting they disclosed Hallensteins Au sales online had been very strong so I think we can reasonably conclude now that including Hallensteins Au sales Australian sales make up more than 50% of group sales This is very relevant when thinking about the prospects going forward and the relative strength of the Au and N.Z. economies as well as the low level of market penetration there and huge scope for growth in Australia.
Glassons N.Z. sales growth of 13.9% is a little underwhelming in my opinion considering the Covid impacts in the PCP
Net dividend after accounting for ~ 45% imputation works out to be 18.888091 cps.
Cash flow from operations $35m up 65%
Balance sheet and liquidity looks very strong to me with no external debt and, going off memory here because I didn't take notes on it, about $36m cash on hand, (about 60 cps)
Some store expansion with Glassons Au, one new store and an expansion of Pacific Fair store, (I love that mall) and looking at more. (I really like their cautious well-disciplined approach to retail footprint expansion).
Hopeful for ~ 25 cps earnings in 2H making ~ 60 cps for the year. FY23 PE based on that forecast 9.3. If they can impute future dividedns by the same amount and dividends remain the same at 24 cps per half the gross forecast yield is 10.1%
This is materially cheaper than any of its peers and yet its clear HLG has arguably the best potential for growth going forward.
I think they are performing admirably well as we scrape along the bottom of this economic cycle.
As N.Z's oldest listed company who run their operations in a well-disciplined and very prudent manner it's my #1 investment position on the NZX and the company I trust the most. Very happy long term holder.
P.S. Opps nearly forgot. I am very hopeful of NZX50 inclusion when PPH exits the index in late May / early June. If not then, when the quarterly index rebalance occurs in June or September when either SML or WHS appear they are getting set to get booted out.
Looking good for 7 dollars as predicted by WINNER().
Solid result I think, and bang in line with our resident HLG guru's prediction. ;D
The results for AUS are particularly positive going forward, and as noted now accounts for nearly half of HLG's sales. That's from only about 5 stores compared to the 42 in NZ! If HLG can continue to grow their AUS market share only fractionally each year, which they have been doing, the future looks very bright, regardless of any potential downturn in the NZ market. Glassons NZ is probably near the bottom of the cycle - once things pick up again here, there could be some pretty stunning results coming down the line.
The yield in the meantime is one of the best around, and HLG's divvy record is second to none. Very happy to see this a long term hold.
I think i said X would be 11% but jeez it was 13.9% .....Group sales for the first eight weeks of the winter season are +13.9% ahead of the same period last year.
But heck I've never seen them so gloomy - Whilst this is a pleasing start, significant challenges are expected to continue for the remainder of the season given the current economic environment in New Zealand, Australia and globally.
Think they been reading too many economic commentator reports
Costs must be a real concern - 18% higher ($14.7m) than last year and even 13% more than H222. Wage bill now about 40% higher than 3 years ago pre pandemic is a worry
I'm glad they said ' Cost efficiencies are being made where possible.' - keep increasing at current rate and H2 profit might not be as good as some expect
Yes sales 2H to date exceeded my own internal expectations, (mid to late single figures percentage increase), so 13.9% increase period to date is very encouraging in the depths of a cost-of-living crisis and recession in N.Z.
I really like their very cautious, disciplined and prudent approach.
Australian capex in the half was $5.5m of a total of $7.9m its clear they know that Australia is where the real growth is.
Costs are a function too of not just inflation but store expansion over the years Winner. I am very happy with the way they are running the business and its good they try and do so efficiently without any unnecessary ESG grandstanding like many companies do.
Our resident Lizard has (temporarily?), put me off getting a coat for Tony the Pony so I will see how his own natural coat fills out as we head into winter. We often come across 30-40 dogs running free in the stunning Craigavon park which is incredibly well set up for dogs and he certainly commands a lot of respect with his beautiful tan coloured coat and substantial size so I wouldn't want to change that. He runs free everywhere in that park so that generates a lot of natural body heat anyway. I will have to think about some other things to spend the dividend on. (Secretly I wanted to get matching coloured coats for Tony and I so all the lovely ladies walking their dogs I come across might think I am a handsome boy too but alas, I am to old now for such attempted folly). Hope Mrs Beagle doesn't read this post lol
Glassons AU key to future profit and dividend growth
They still eeking out share gains and now 0.82% (low penetration as basil says eh)
In 6 months to Jan 23 period 'market'up 15% on six months to July 22 but Glassons up 21%
So keeping watch on ABS Retail data will be a good guide to how Glassons are progressing - no doubt the next we'll hear from HLG is sometime in August
Anyway heres a chart of Glassons AU share
0000glaushare.JPG
Quote from: winner (n) on Mar 31, 2023, 10:47 AMBut heck I've never seen them so gloomy - Whilst this is a pleasing start, significant challenges are expected to continue for the remainder of the season given the current economic environment in New Zealand, Australia and globally.
I think more 'cautious' rather than 'gloomy' - words that insulate against the global effects of inflation and interest rates that may not have peaked yet - careful words to show they are mindful of the broader economic environment while executing a carefully crafted growth plan.
Quote from: winner (n) on Mar 31, 2023, 10:59 AMWage bill now about 40% higher than 3 years ago pre pandemic is a worry
That's what happens when the minimum wage goes up 44% in 6 years.
Quote from: Basil on Mar 31, 2023, 11:03 AMOur resident Lizard has (temporarily?), put me off getting a coat for Tony the Pony so I will see how his own natural coat fills out as we head into winter. We often come across 30-40 dogs running free in the stunning Craigavon park which is incredibly well set up for dogs and he certainly commands a lot of respect with his beautiful tan coloured coat and substantial size so I wouldn't want to change that. He runs free everywhere in that park so that generates a lot of natural body heat anyway. I will have to think about some other things to spend the dividend on. (Secretly I wanted to get matching coloured coats for Tony and I so all the lovely ladies walking their dogs I come across might think I am a handsome boy too but alas, I am to old now for such attempted folly). Hope Mrs Beagle doesn't read this post lol
You live in Auckland, it doesnt get cold. Only tiny, shivery chihuahuas should wear clothes. And greyhounds. Get him a flash bandana or bow tie. Or really splash out and get him some Tiffany jewellery like mine have :-)
Quote from: winner (n) on Mar 31, 2023, 11:10 AMGlassons AU key to future profit and dividend growth
They still eeking out share gains and now 0.82% (low penetration as basil says eh)
In 6 months to Jan 23 period 'market'up 15% on six months to July 22 but Glassons up 21%
So keeping watch on ABS Retail data will be a good guide to how Glassons are progressing - no doubt the next we'll hear from HLG is sometime in August
Anyway heres a chart of Glassons AU share
0000glaushare.JPG
Anyway you slice and dice it, that's very solid growth in market share in Australia over the years and very encouraging for the long term prospects for holders. Just got to get through this recession and we will live to see even happier times. In the meantime, posting record profits and dividends as we scrape along the bottom of this economic cycle certainly commands my respect!
Sales 2020 $288m, estimated FY23 $400m+ up ~ 40%
Materially bigger retail footprint in FY23 than FY20 so increased wages bill is understandable.
Quote from: winner (n) on Mar 31, 2023, 11:10 AMGlassons AU key to future profit and dividend growth
They still eeking out share gains and now 0.82% (low penetration as basil says eh)
In 6 months to Jan 23 period 'market'up 15% on six months to July 22 but Glassons up 21%
So keeping watch on ABS Retail data will be a good guide to how Glassons are progressing - no doubt the next we'll hear from HLG is sometime in August
Anyway heres a chart of Glassons AU share
0000glaushare.JPG
Thanks so much for that chart Winner.
Is that the share of total retail clothing or woman's retail clothing?
Quote from: Clearasmud on Mar 31, 2023, 01:38 PMThanks so much for that chart Winner.
Is that the share of total retail clothing or woman's retail clothing?
Total retail clothing (no shoes, accessories etc). Clothing stores type so doesn't include those department stores that sell clothes
Best market proxy I can come up with
HLG don't disclose Hallensteins AU sales so can't do a group share
I was a little surprised how much their group online sales % dropped.
From 33% to 18% is quite some drop. Not far off a 50% drop.
Moved a lot of cost efficient online sales to more expensive store sales.
Unfortunately the wage costs for Hlg and other similar minimum wage businesses in NZ went up again today.
They seem to have unlocked the secret sauce for glassons australia so whilst the short term might be a few headwinds once the good times come again they should do well expanding into the bigger market if their designers can keep giving their customers what they want.
GLTH
People are obviously really happy to be out shopping in the stores again after the misery of all the Covid lockdowns.
Is selling online more efficient (less costly) than seliing in store for retailer that operates in both channels?
I estimate that NZ sales grew by 20% over pcp
Growth in line with overall retail spend on apparel (Stats NZ). NZ sales have for years essentially tracked the market, Nothing exciting about them in NZ
But about +20% in last six months pretty good .... and recession didn't really hit retail spend in that quarter
H123 NPBT at $29.5m was $12.6m more than same period last year
How did they manage it
Selling more stuff contributed $31.1m more profit
But lower gross margin % reduced this by $3.7m
Resulting in Gross Margin being up $27.4m
and Expenses were up $14.8m
Breakdown by segment below.
Hallensteins had the biggest drop in GM% (57.9% to 54.3%) while Glassons AU had the biggest increase in expenses (up 29%)
0000hlgv222.JPG
Quote from: winner (n) on Mar 31, 2023, 03:23 PMIs selling online more efficient (less costly) than seliing in store for retailer that operates in both channels?
Great question. The short answer is for some businesses it will be and for others It won't be.
I don't know Hlg e-commerce systems but I have worked for an Omni channel clothing business doing design, manufacture, wholesale, retail stores and e-commerce.
In our business e-commerce was the best gross margin division.
Big challenge for Omni retailer is accurately and fairly allocating fixed overheads to truly reflect time spent in each channel. In our business accountant worked over all channels. Stock all in one warehouse, warehouse staff picked stock for all channels.
The model could be quite different if your running multi warehouses, fulfilling from store or using 3rd party distribution pick and pack.
If you google compare retail store cost vs eccomerce you can get multiple conflicting answers as eccomerce models can be quite different.
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/19/think-running-retail-stores-is-more-expensive-than-selling-online-think-again.html
https://www.pixelfish.com.au/blog/cost-of-an-online-store-vs-a-physical-shop/
https://www.retaildogma.com/brick-and-mortar-retail-vs-online-retail/
Some people think so but there's often a lot of returns with goods sold online.
I think with clothes, its clear most people want to see the item, feel the fabric and make sure its a good fit.
Yes I would expect Hlg to have a slightly higher than average online return rate as it sells seasonal fashion with a wide variation of product types and fabrications. Compare to say icebreaker or kmd who are more standardised shapes and garments I run in an asics Trabuco shoe...I know my size...I just buy from cheapest online vendor as I know what I'm getting before it arrives and it will fit. No retail store experience required.
Fashion items I never buy online...always in store purchase
It would be interesting to know what Hlg return rate actually is if anyone knows?
Anyway we're getting off topic. I thought it was a solid result but they are facing same headwinds as other retailers. Cost of doing business going up. Margin pressure but they have a potential gold mine with glassons in Australia..until their designers muck up a season and then it goes bad quickly...that's how fashion brands roll
"Hallensteins had the biggest drop in GM% (57.9% to 54.3%) while Glassons AU had the biggest increase in expenses (up 29%)"
you need good people to handle all those people coming in the doors and you have to pay them well when they can go and get another retail job in AUS?
happy staff happy customers...
average staff easy to find, good staff?
Quote from: winner (n) on Mar 31, 2023, 03:23 PMIs selling online more efficient (less costly) than seliing in store for retailer that operates in both channels?
Great question. Not sure about HLG, but I read that amazon is paying a lot for the online service ... quite high number of returns (product does not appeal or does not fit). Obviously - these costs would be much lower with selling in a store, if the customer can see and try the product before buying it.
Quote from: Perky on Mar 31, 2023, 05:05 PMMargin pressure but they have a potential gold mine with glassons in Australia..until their designers muck up a season and then it goes bad quickly...that's how fashion brands roll
Looking at that chart Winner posted, it's been an impressive strong and steady rate of increased market penetration for Glassons Aust over the last 6 years.
Quote from: winner (n) on Mar 31, 2023, 03:23 PMIs selling online more efficient (less costly) than seliing in store for retailer that operates in both channels?
Flexibility. A dept store like Myer might say that growing online sales reduces the business's dependance on the landlord, allows a reduction in Sq footage of floor space and allows a reduction in the number of stores.
It could also be desirable to have a state of the art (robotic) fulfillment center.
The previous comment made has been contested that due to the number of variations that can creep into AI predictions when the prediction variations is set to higher levels.
AI might not be able to replace backend warehouse programming teams ive been told this morning.
It may still be hard hard work streamlining IT back ends for warehousing.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/casual-in-tailored-out-hallenstein-glassons-sales-leap-but-pressures-from-freight-greenback-remain/Q4GV3V4ALZDSDJYDI4M55QH25I/
One less competitor.
"Administrators have been appointed to online retailer Ezibuy."
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300846171/retailer-ezibuy-placed-into-administration
with the Cost of Capital increasing to its highest point in decades companies that dont have to go to the market to grow such as HLG are undervalued due to the no debt levels on the BOOKS....
Quote from: Waltzing on Apr 04, 2023, 11:21 AMwith the Cost of Capital increasing to its highest point in decades companies that dont have to go to the market to grow such as HLG are undervalued due to the no debt levels on the BOOKS....
Well said, fortress balance sheet and growth without ever coming to the market and all the while, paying huge dividends. Very impressive! Trades cum a 24 cent dividend and possible inclusion in the NZX50 as early as next month.
Re Ezibuy demise / restructure won't have too much impact ( good or bad) on HLG
EziBuy was a hugely successful Palmerston North-based e-tailer, run by two Gillespie brothers. It was sold to Woolworths for $350m in 2013 Woolies sucked all the mojo out of it, in the way of so many big company takeovers, then offloaded it to Alceon / Mosaic for $30m in 2017. Mosaic has done even worse
Mosaic did themselves no favours when right after they bought Ezibuy they spammed Ezibuy's customer base with email ads for all their other brands without permission.
Bit like HLG in some ways ...like country boys can run great businesses ........but when big boys and money men get involved it all turns to custard.
Dont think Beagles eat custard......
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R_APlwia-ug
gosh all the talk is on the retirement stock threads again. Oh does that mean these boring old retail stocks with no debt with slow growth models are ok then with their bankable dividends.... year after year...
and just arnt worth chatting about...
even BRS's chart is looking interesting as it lays in a long base re : WJ ONeil... and that boring balance sheet with which can absorb a year or two of inflation margin decreases... rather good looking balance sheet that one.
none of those fancy debt burdens for MR B to calculate interest increase charges for....
No further talk of expansion into the US?
I got the impression from the annual meeting that's on the backburner Hectorplains and they are sticking to their knitting in Australasia.
Yes Waltzing - Got to love a company that can grow nicely without ever raising capital, not even via a dividend reinvestment plan, has no debt and pays out really handsome dividends twice a year. Higher interest rates a serious headwind for other companies but are actually something of a tailwind for HLG with its ~ $36m of cash on hand on deposit earning decent interest now compared to a year ago. (I say something of a tailwind because there's obviously a direct benefit in higher interest income but there's also a cost as consumers with mortgages get squeezed).
One thing that's totally overlooked though is the baby boomer generation with capital are earning a lot more on their term deposits these days so are in a far better position to be generous with buying their kids and grandkids clothes and other stuff to help out.
HLG trades ex divvy when the market opens on Tuesday.
Media spruiking this big recession ......what nonsense
Stats NZ Electronic Card Spend for March
Apparel sales up 30% on March last year ...and that's better than the 15% more in February
Seems to be at odds of what HLG said a few weeks ago - The trading environment for the first eight weeks of the winter season has been challenging with the cost of living and inflationary pressures impacting on consumers discretionary spend. Group sales for the first eight weeks of the winter season are +13.9% ahead of the same period last year.
Never mind ..must be selling more and more ...and making more
"spruiking"
google brought up some interesting results......
Google says its an AUS slang word...
China opening up and its needs AUSSI materials ....
AUS is NOT NZ...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/liam-dann-when-will-the-post-covid-party-stop/DFW5BG7GWVAU7EZLUCSQ2R3WEA/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=nzh_email&utm_campaign=20230417_Premium_News_Briefing_Newsletter&uuid=ae2dd95d629344ca8119b12a0d7d7338
Paywalled. Surprised that young people are spending up and having a good time and don't care about higher interest rates and what the Reserve Bank says? You shouldn't be, I've been predicting exactly that for many months. They have Covid fatigue, and the spending isn't going to stop any year soon.
Looking forward to Wednesday's huge dividend.
Even Retail Watch numbers out today say clothing sales still booming .... along with hospo and tarvel etc .....while the things the young don't worry about like home appliances, building supplies are feeling bit of pain
Interesting numbers
0000RETWATCH.JPG
Lucky it becoming an AUSSI company...
cause things arnt looking pretty here....
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/nzs-trade-deficit-forecast-to-be-the-worst-among-advanced-economies/WCUBGIW2FRDEVIN2X2VMSE63WY/
people are desperate for a long long late summer... by next summer they could be ready to party even harder..
No one reads reserve bank statements that buy at HLG and or in AUS...
Waltz ...you've got to stop reading and watching media commentary .....they just trying to scare you ...... and nowhere near reality
winner() you have got to start reading the reserve bank statements of accounts....
be scared be very scared!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zLoPbYSxf1w
actually thats the problem after so many crashes are you scared?
if you not scared your dead!!!!
SHORT the KIWI I!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LJlXwF7ap7I
Quote from: Waltzing on Apr 17, 2023, 11:25 AMLucky it becoming an AUSSI company...
cause things arnt looking pretty here....
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/nzs-trade-deficit-forecast-to-be-the-worst-among-advanced-economies/WCUBGIW2FRDEVIN2X2VMSE63WY/
people are desperate for a long long late summer... by next summer they could be ready to party even harder..
No one reads reserve bank statements that buy at HLG and or in AUS...
I am expecting Australian sales to exceed N.Z. sales in FY24. Glassons and Hallensteins are very mature brands here but are at a very early stage of their development and growth in Australia and have many decades of growth ahead of them there. The percentage of Australian sales will grow every year going forward. (Only ~ one sixth of the market penetration so far with stores over there compared to here leaves enormous amounts of room for Australian sales growth going forward).
Waltzing ...was this you quoted in media
I think ASB are optimistic, PMI collapse, Dairy collapse, retail collapse, heavy trucking collapse. NZ is going to take 10 years to dig its way back. The RBNZ is a lunatic asylum. Could have just raised the default Kiwisaver to 10% no losers at all
https://www.interest.co.nz/currencies/120823/us-bond-yields-dollar-advance-bets-firm-another-25bps-hike-us-dollar-index-basing
NZRB only gets its data out by the QTR where as a German data science master data statistician get it monthly from his office in Palmy.... or is bedroom.
go figure...
now if RBNZ spent a few million it could buy some 40G AI chips off EBAY and maybe they could set up some data recording in their wellington office and get some real data ....
maybe not....
and thats the real joke here....
But hey dont worry HLG is an AUS profit machine and doesnt need to worry about the RBNZ and its pencil and paper methods and its paintings of trees...
BUY HLG ... and help with MR B boating bills !!!!
and business class tickets back to copenhagen a twice what they used to be...
the KIWI is worth what?
HLG is seriously undervalued if MR B is right about BG no growth of 8-9
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/131787714/time-to-hit-the-panic-button-on-our-34-billion-balance-of-payment-deficit
https://www.forbes.com/advisor/au/personal-finance/inflation-rate-australia/#:~:text=Australia's%20consumer%20price%20increases%2C%20meanwhile,year%20and%203.5%25%20in%202024.
Pay day today for the HLG dividend. Funds in my account promptly just after 10.00 a.m.
Many thanks to the hard working team at HLG. Keep up the good work.
Looking forward to likely NZX50 inclusion in due course, (perhaps as early as next month when PPH are likely to exit the index).
In town today and did a seeweed and popped into the Glassons store .....a Hallensteins store is in same store
Talked to chatty Glassons lady and asked how things going ..........been a quiet month and slack as since school holidays started
Probably doesn't mean much ...... maybe chicks don't buy clothes in April.
Should management be worried about you older guys going into Glassons stores and chatting up the nice young staff ;)
Quote from: Basil on Apr 19, 2023, 05:45 PMShould management be worried about you older guys going into Glassons stores and chatting up the nice young staff ;)
No worries ....disclose I'm a proud shareholder who pays their wages.
Quote from: winner (n) on Apr 19, 2023, 05:52 PMNo worries ....disclose I'm a proud shareholder who pays their wages.
Good for you mate. Hope you bought something while there for your kids / grandkids.
Glassons gift vouchers are cool, my family like getting those.
Good to reinvest some of that huge dividend 👍
Quote from: Basil on Apr 19, 2023, 05:45 PMShould management be worried about you older guys going into Glassons stores and chatting up the nice young staff ;)
Had cause to sit outside the Glassons store at Botany Centre, East Auckland yesterday for about 30 mins. I was the old guy enjoying a Green Tea ice-cream (recommended). It was interesting to see how staff quickly engaged people walking in and over a short time period soon to be walking out clutching a purchase in a Glassons environment friendly brown paper bag. Even if not a long time period, good to see that staff initiated customer engagement.
Inflation in and some very nice pastel colors in the graph upping the artistic high bar to graphing....
This is good news for retail?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/the-big-inflation-number-have-price-hikes-peaked/IONZRQFMQRGYLGL3S7PVXJCZ2Y/
Yes I think the way HLG staff have been trained to positively interact in a non-pushy but very helpful and professional way with customers is one of the key ingredients to their success. Not sure at all about your green tea ice-cream Whome. Mrs Hound and I are absolutely love the quality and taste of this stuff. Try some, trust me, you won't be disappointed! https://www.killinchygold.co.nz/English/Flavours/corerange/Maple+Syrup+Walnut.html
Its not cheap, but real quality never is.
Great to see Inflation starting to cool a little. It will take time to come down further.
Hlg said "Margin was pressured during the season by the USD exchange rate"
That CPI print today sent NZD tumbling
I think a lot of stock in the first half FY23 was ordered when the exchange rate was a bit south of 60 cents so I don't see the current exchange rate as much of a headwind. (we're currently with a few cents of the 10 year average against the US)
Shipping costs coming down will help in the current half.
Can you tell me a bit more about the combined Hallensteins / Glassons store ? Obviously there's two different parts to the store but how does that work in terms of signage inside the store if any ? Just curious how they format the store. I haven't seen one of those combined stores before. I guess this might be a sign of their future strategy in terms of raising efficiency with store costs.
I might head down to the annual meeting in December and pick their brains a bit after the meeting with future strategy.
Works in Wellington with Hallensteins up on the first floor while Glassons have 'prime' ground floor space.
Thanks mate, I can see how that would easily work. I guess it could be made to work if all on the same level if there were 2 separate area's / 2 changing rooms.
With over 5000 Kiwi nurses now registered in AUS and more Kiwis heading there one of the places they might take their young teens shopping could be glassons...
Maybe HLG just saw the writing on the wall sooner than the LBA GOVT here....
You can make up anything you like for (LBA) ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UbiQjJ6s2x0
Really is there any reason for holding a large number of NZ only stocks with no AUS exposure?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/300859931/the-very-big-fish-hook-in-aussies-transtasman-citizenship-deal
Come on people ... moving on up ... clap yr hands.. stamp your feet ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zkHOVJINRD8
Yeap, WHS and HLG share prices definitely going their own way in recent months !
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p8Ojjn35kP8
Oh the irony if WHS get booted out of the NZX50 index to be replaced by HLG ;)
Quote from: winner (n) on Apr 20, 2023, 02:23 PMWorks in Wellington with Hallensteins up on the first floor while Glassons have 'prime' ground floor space.
Same in Christchurch https://www.google.com.au/maps/place/Hallenstein+Brothers+Christchurch+CBD/@-43.5331079,172.637453,3a,75y,90t/data=!3m8!1e2!3m6!1sAF1QipOxKrQGuTNhpCPvqrqHj10q4x1ZYPTFTEjZjg2v!2e10!3e12!6shttps:%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fp%2FAF1QipOxKrQGuTNhpCPvqrqHj10q4x1ZYPTFTEjZjg2v%3Dw114-h86-k-no!7i4032!8i3024!4m16!1m8!3m7!1s0x6d318a3d19c2fd55:0xf039448ab97fb99e!2sHallenstein+Brothers+Christchurch+CBD!8m2!3d-43.5329743!4d172.6374502!10e5!16s%2Fg%2F1pp2ty74x!3m6!1s0x6d318a3d19c2fd55:0xf039448ab97fb99e!8m2!3d-43.5329743!4d172.6374502!10e5!16s%2Fg%2F1pp2ty74x
Quote from: KW on Apr 24, 2023, 07:23 PMSame in Christchurch https://www.google.com.au/maps/place/Hallenstein+Brothers+Christchurch+CBD/@-43.5331079,172.637453,3a,75y,90t/data=!3m8!1e2!3m6!1sAF1QipOxKrQGuTNhpCPvqrqHj10q4x1ZYPTFTEjZjg2v!2e10!3e12!6shttps:%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fp%2FAF1QipOxKrQGuTNhpCPvqrqHj10q4x1ZYPTFTEjZjg2v%3Dw114-h86-k-no!7i4032!8i3024!4m16!1m8!3m7!1s0x6d318a3d19c2fd55:0xf039448ab97fb99e!2sHallenstein+Brothers+Christchurch+CBD!8m2!3d-43.5329743!4d172.6374502!10e5!16s%2Fg%2F1pp2ty74x!3m6!1s0x6d318a3d19c2fd55:0xf039448ab97fb99e!8m2!3d-43.5329743!4d172.6374502!10e5!16s%2Fg%2F1pp2ty74x
Nice URL. Thank goodness for copy and paste :)
Price looking positive today. So far.
Found this interesting:
https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/retailers-hanging-tough-but-smaller-brands-at-risk-20230424-p5d2v1.html
Retailers hanging tough but smaller brands at risk
Select quotes if I may:
Australia's retailers are broadly tipped to escape the carnage sweeping across the construction sector as affluent consumers keep shopping, but experts warn that smaller brands and retailers selling big-ticket items and apparel could slip into the danger zone.
While consumers have spent big on fashion and apparel in the post-lockdown era, there are signs that spending is flattening in these categories. Clothing and footwear sales jumped by just 0.6 per cent in February, according to Australian Bureau of Statistics figures.
This has prompted caution among analysts about the strength of mid-market brands over the next few months. ASX-listed companies like City Chic, Best & Less and baby goods retailer Baby Bunting have all told investors over the past six months that conditions have been challenging.
Someone's lit a fuse - SP up to $5.73.
Some old dog exuding quiet confidence in the prospects of NZX50 inclusion next month.
If it happens it's going to be a heck of a lot of fun seeing the index tracking funds scramble to get enough shares.
I might let some of mine go at $8 if they're lucky ;D
HLG got kicked out of NZX50 by PEB in 2014 (I think) ......how embarrassing
How long were they actually in the NZX50 back then and did it actually help the share price after the initial burst of enthusiasm.
You really keen on this elevation eh ....probably be the kiss of death in the king run ....but as long as you quit your $10 shares it will be worth it.
10 bucks will come along if this company keep performing like they have been...
by THAT TIME A NEW TAX will be here to collect the profits...
Good questions Winner. I started buying HLG in August 2016 so those things happened before my time.
Retail Trade, Australia
Future releases
Retail Trade, Australia, March 2023Release date 03/05/2023 11:30am AEST
https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/retail-and-wholesale-trade/retail-trade-australia
waiting...
pretty sure Winner() posted this...
Interim Report has been printed. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/410558/393309.pdf
Quote from: Basil on Apr 28, 2023, 10:16 AMInterim Report has been printed. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/410558/393309.pdf
Maybe history really repeats?
This feels like the "roaring twenties" ... young people dancing and peacocking as if there is no tomorrow, and HLG definitely found a way to benefit from that.
Mid term though HLG might look to diversify into tailoring uniforms and camouflage ... these have been the great hits in the 30'íes and fourties of last century.
Anyway - great result, but somewhat subdued outlook ... and the fashion shown is clearly not my cup of tea, but I probably don't belong to their target customer group anymore.
This young girl on the title page looks like she is wondering as well what the future might bring?
Anyway - all kudos to Basil ... quite well articulating for some time HLG's amazing potential and better than me capturing the spirit of the younger generation. Looks like they buy as if there won't be a tomorrow :o ; Good on HLG for making money out of that.
Quote from: BlackPeter on Apr 28, 2023, 10:34 AMMaybe history really repeats?
This feels like the "roaring twenties" ... young people dancing and peacocking as if there is no tomorrow, and HLG definitely found a way to benefit from that.
Mid term though HLG might look to diversify into tailoring uniforms and camouflage ... these have been the great hits in the 30'íes and fourties of last century.
Anyway - great result, but somewhat subdued outlook ... and the fashion shown is clearly not my cup of tea, but I probably don't belong to their target customer group anymore.
This young girl on the title page looks like she is wondering as well what the future might bring?
Anyway - all kudos to Basil ... quite well articulating for some time HLG's amazing potential and better than me capturing the spirit of the younger generation. Looks like they buy as if there won't be a tomorrow :o ; Good on HLG for making money out of that.
The young love peacocking etc .....and the silver hairs love travelling they say
HLG share price over 6 bucks now
No stopping the rise ...record profits and all that
Index funds assuming HLg into NZX50 and getting in early methinks
Quote from: winner (n) on Apr 28, 2023, 11:15 AMIndex funds assuming HLg into NZX50 and getting in early methinks
Crickey - Average daily volume according to MS Money is 13.7K and they've already done more than 41,000 shares and the market has been open for only one and a half hours. Volumes in recent days have consistently been much higher than normal. Maybe I am not the only one that thinks HLG has its nose in front in race for NZX50 inclusion? I'm expecting an announcement from S&P in the next few days.
Quote from: winner (n) on Apr 28, 2023, 11:15 AMIndex funds assuming HLg into NZX50 and getting in early methinks
Yes, got to be something like that to account for the movement - up 5% just today! With only 60m shares on offer, goodness knows where the SP will go if/when the index funds join the crowd. Great gains already with more to come methinks.
Index funds are weird
Losers get kicked off and funds need to sell to crystallise losses (ERoad great example of buying high selling low and even Push was higher price when invited in)
And then when the winners are so good and get invited into the club their share prices are already elevated and often the inevitable happens and most of smaller newbies see their share prices fall away and then get kicked out
So if HLG join the club keep a close on those charts and make sure you capture the gains the indexation gave you.......and then wait until the share price is back iin $3/$4 range and have another go......as Peter says that's how cyclicals work.
I think we agreed a while back their very long term average PE is 12.5.
I have them on a current year eps of ~ 60 cps (35 cps first half and 25 cps second half) so 12.5 x 60 cps = $7.50. Then there's something else to think about and that's in regard to the fact that in the last 6-7 years the growth with Glassons Au has transformed the company into something that's more akin to a growth company so we need to consider whether the long-term historical average PE ratio is still correct going forward.
Not a stretch at all in my opinion to say the correct PE in the current circumstances with Glassons Au now a proven growth engine shouldn't be in the mid teens. Maybe 60 cps x 15 = $9. Myabe if HLG does get included in the NZX50 it will drive some value for index tracking funds in this particular case ?
Quote from: winner (n) on Nov 19, 2022, 03:23 PMGlassons AU doubled their share last 4 years so expect them to double share again in say 3 years ... to 1.5%
That's about $400m of sales .... just from Glassons AU
[url="https://stocktalk.co.nz/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=402;type=preview;file"]0000glau.JPG[/url]
Lets remember this post when considering their growth potential in Australia.
Quote from: winner (n) on Nov 21, 2022, 04:14 PMbasil .... since 2006 HLG average PE has been 12.5
So I charted actual share price v what it would be at a PE of 12.5 ..... never very away eh ...and shows the time to buy eh (as you have sussed out a few times already)
Note - the at 12.5 PE line is based on July year EPS applied to the full year (like July 20 EPS applied Jan20 to Dec 20) so a mix of past and forward looking if you get the gist
So 10 bucks not outrageous at EPS of 80 cents
0000hlgpe.JPG
And this one. We're not going to make 80 cps this year but as I said above, your graph tracks the 12.5 PE back a very long way to before Glassons Au started growing so it's a very fair question with the growth there now proven in recent years and the huge runway for growth in the years ahead considering their very low retail footprint penetration there so far, is 12.5 the right PE going forward or should we be thinking mid teens ?
Quote from: winner (n) on Apr 28, 2023, 11:15 AMIndex funds assuming HLg into NZX50 and getting in early methinks
I don't think index funds are allowed to act on hunches ... (otherwise they would be speculation funds ...). They better wait until this info is official - one way or the other
Quote from: BlackPeter on Apr 28, 2023, 12:56 PMI don't think index funds are allowed to act on hunches ... (otherwise they would be speculation funds ...). They better wait until this info is official - one way or the other
Most index fund providers have non index funds which can be used to 'warehouse' stocks which are destined for the index.
Gosh. I glanced at the report this morning.
Thought it looked great.
Quickly came here to see no reaction (at the time).
Thought - shows what I know/ think.
Turned my back to attend to other business for a few hours.
Checked in to market related stuff 30 minutes ago.
But couldn't find HLG anywhere.
Looked up to the sky to see the rocket ship carrying the HLG share price upwards at breakneck speed.
Come back here to learn that may only be stage 1.
:) :D
Beagle is THE MAN!
Very glad I sold all my WHS and half my OCA and invested the proceeds in HLG.
More excitement to come I'm sure.
Quote from: Teitei on Apr 28, 2023, 01:35 PMMost index fund providers have non index funds which can be used to 'warehouse' stocks which are destined for the index.
Sounds pretty sleezy - so, you are saying they use the money from non index fund investors to buy index fund investors cheaper new entries into the index fund?
If that's true, the Fund managers doing this belong behind bars.
More likely, though, you are wrong.
Quote from: BlackPeter on Apr 28, 2023, 05:54 PMSounds pretty sleezy - so, you are saying they use the money from non index fund investors to buy index fund investors cheaper new entries into the index fund?
If that's true, the Fund managers doing this belong behind bars.
More likely, though, you are wrong.
Think it through ...might make more sense
Quote from: BlackPeter on Apr 28, 2023, 05:54 PMSounds pretty sleezy - so, you are saying they use the money from non index fund investors to buy index fund investors cheaper new entries into the index fund?
If that's true, the Fund managers doing this belong behind bars.
More likely, though, you are wrong.
Where do you think the big crossings on the day of indexing come from?
Used to be a mad scramble for stock in the old days but it's all very orderly these days.
This guy says the index funds will need to buy 1.4 million shares
Media market close -
Paul Robertshawe, chief investment officer with Octagon Asset Management, said passive investment funds would need to buy Hallenstein Glasson shares to match its index weighting. "That represents about 1.4m shares. Hallenstein is not a highly liquid stock and the funds will have to buy at any price. Maybe some of them have moved early on the strong suspicion that it will be included in the top 50," he said.
Full article Winner is referring too. WOW, if that's correct and it does get included its going to be a lot of fun seeing the index tracking funds scrambling to acquire 1.4 million shares. By my calculations that's 102 days normal demand volume in HLG compressed into a very short period of time. I like this bit especially. "Hallenstein is not a highly liquid stock and the funds will have to buy at any price", emphasis added.
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976521652/nz-sharemarket-lifts-after-positive-news-from-the-us.html?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GoodReturns+Market+Report+for+28+Apr+2023
Thanks for your kind words Teitei. Bit early to accept any pats on the back yet. Let's wait for confirmation of index inclusion, hopefully next week.
will be a great thing...long awaited.
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/methodologies/methodology-sp-nzx-index.pdf
Y
Quote from: Pierre on Apr 28, 2023, 05:47 PMVery glad I sold all my WHS and half my OCA and invested the proceeds in HLG.
More excitement to come I'm sure.
[/quote must have done similar, sold all my whs and oca but bought HLG and STu.
Stu has been a dog however
5 th may retail stat for March AUS..
Are Kiwis now all waiting to become Kangas?
NZ on track to become a state of AUS...
Quote from: Waltzing on Apr 29, 2023, 09:17 AM5 th may retail stat for March AUS..
Are Kiwis now all waiting to become Kangas?
NZ on track to become a state of AUS...
5th will just confirm the strong growth in Oz clothing sales is continuing. Even NZ market pretty solid.
B's full year forecast real conservative ...... HLG will do better than what he's saying.
winner () , tink that would be Grand....
HLG in the N.Z. Herald as well. Cat, (speculation on NZX50 index inclusion), well and truly out of the bag now.
Hope I'm right. Doggy doesn't like egg on his face lol
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/market-close-strong-day-on-wall-st-lifts-nz-stocks-higher/FGBXYT52QVCNTLAOMJWCYYEDOA/
Paywalled.
Rather be conservative now Winner. Been licking my wounds for a while now over the eps forecast of 80 cps. Be conservative at 60 cps and a fair PE of 14 (considering fabulous growth prospects are clearly proven and clearly evident in Australia v long term average of 12.5).
14 x 60 cps = $8.40. If they manage to do 30 cps in the second half that's 65 cps x 14 =$9.10.
Just putting up possible targets for those index tracking funds to aim for in the (hopefully), forthcoming index inclusion bidding frenzy.😁
Cindy told us to be kind, remember, so I might toss them a modest sized bone and let them have a few of mine somewhere in that $8.40 - $9.10 range.
Cutting firewood yesterday and stopped for a cuppa and a check on the market...... and voila... the HLG sp rise was underway...... compelling to watch the scramble to buy HLG on the prospect of NZX50 inclusion, as long predicted by the Basil School of Logical Thinking and the Winner School of Graphic Art...... so, up a buck, and 2 more to go...... wonderful, made my day... will make trading on Monday interesting to say the least.
Now to pick the top do I keep a count of the no. Of shares traded since Friday until the total gets close to 104 million.
"like egg on his face "
dogs breakfest...
Rather be conservative now Winner. Been licking my wounds for a while now over the eps forecast of 80 cps. Be conservative at 60 cps and a fair PE of 14 (considering fabulous growth prospects are clearly proven and clearly evident in Australia v long term average of 12.5).
14 x 60 cps = $8.40. If they manage to do 30 cps in the second half that's 65 cps x 14 =$9.10.
Just putting up possible targets for those index tracking funds to aim for in the (hopefully), forthcoming index inclusion bidding frenzy.😁
Cindy told us to be kind, remember, so I might toss them a modest sized bone and let them have a few of mine somewhere in that $8.40 - $9.10 range.[quote :Basil]
No need for apologies, Basil. This is all cherry on the top material for holders who are invested in a company already providing a ~9% gross divi yield in challenging global times.
I'm expecting to here from S&P in respect of the index change mid - late next week.
Thanks Whome. Seaweed on the other forum doing well too and obviously happy. Really good to see my mates doing well out of this.
Nearly there and those companies that are right for a take over will be in demand?
Those companies already AUSSI Fied wont mind one supposes.. MHJ, HLG.. and some others..
https://www.stuff.co.nz/opinion/300863277/hey-mate-heres-why-new-zealand-should-become-a-state-of-australia
Most were laughing their heads off not that long ago when a HLG share price of 10 bucks was mentioned
Next update mid to late August with full year 23 sales and likely full year profit .....will be much higher than expected numbers, even higher than B's estimate
Then late September confirmation of of full year results but will be saying first 8 weeks of new year are well up on pcp...maybe even double digit
Then December the ASM and they'll say F24 sales are still tracking well ahead of pcp ...jeez growth into F24
They don't say much but three big updates before Christmas that 10 buck share price might be here by Christmas
Quote from: winner (n) on Apr 29, 2023, 03:14 PMMost were laughing their heads off not that long ago when a HLG share price of 10 bucks was mentioned
Next update mid to late August with full year 23 sales and likely full year profit .....will be much higher than expected numbers, even higher than B's estimate
Then late September confirmation of of full year results but will be saying first 8 weeks of new year are well up on pcp...maybe even double digit
Then December the ASM and they'll say F24 sales are still tracking well ahead of pcp ...jeez growth into F24
They don't say much but three big updates before Christmas that 10 buck share price might be here by Christmas
Loving your positivity. Please post that in the other forum too mate.
Just to add my appreciation to both Basil and Winner for their sterling work in crunching the HLG numbers. Certainly got my attention and glad they did as retail is not my thing and wouldn't have bought in when I did (at $5.30 only a couple of months ago!) Kudos to you both!
I'm wondering whether those that have bumped the SP up dramatically over the last few days will tip the balance in HLG's favour for inclusion win the NZX50 since it will help with the averaging exercise and capitalisation ? Sort of self-fulfilling prophesy. I know that you thought Turners were in the mix a while back, Basil, but HLG may have timed its run to perfection. Next week you reckon? Can't wait!
Ok Winner() says its sailing away ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FSV_ctdr2Z4
an in the good ol USA ...
https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.html#:~:text=Advance%20estimates%20of%20U.S.%20retail%20and%20food%20services%20sales%20for,0.7%20percent)%20above%20March%202022.
Aus Retail sales ... waiting ...
https://tradingeconomics.com/calendar
Champion work Basil and winner (iirc you identified the PE ratio trend?). And cheers for sharing.
side by side word table of 21 H Ytd 23 H Ytd.
Comp ranges easy to see for those who may not have previously seen the reports side by side and compared the variances.
Side by Side % Vars for 2023-22, 2021-20. Var % (2023-22), (2021-20).
HLG Expense Var +- 2023-2022.
All looks good to me Waltz. Not really the time for a deep dive into expense analysis. This is the time to be sitting back and watching the fun. Looking forward to the S&P NZX50 announcement later this week. Not a certainty yet but looking very good.
Indeed Mr B the numbers stack up well but in an inflationary environment and global uncertainty for supply chains keeping an eye on how their underlying ecosystem is performing is of interest if one is to increase the sums invested.
Its a small fish in a big sea that is perfoming a miracle for sure..
2021 was outstanding in terms of leveraging their exising business to generate profits.
2023 has some really interesting var of var as that selling expenses have actually in relation to percentage of total expenses gone down relative to prior years.. pretty impressive or was it just an accident we will see in the coming years.
Quote from: Basil on May 01, 2023, 09:37 AMAll looks good to me Waltz. Not really the time for a deep dive into expense analysis. This is the time to be sitting back and watching the fun. Looking forward to the S&P NZX50 announcement later this week. Not a certainty yet but looking very good.
Watching the fun indeed. Up 4% already!
Quote from: LoungeLizard on Apr 29, 2023, 06:27 PMJust to add my appreciation to both Basil and Winner for their sterling work in crunching the HLG numbers. Certainly got my attention and glad they did as retail is not my thing and wouldn't have bought in when I did (at $5.30 only a couple of months ago!) Kudos to you both!
I'm wondering whether those that have bumped the SP up dramatically over the last few days will tip the balance in HLG's favour for inclusion win the NZX50 since it will help with the averaging exercise and capitalisation ? Sort of self-fulfilling prophesy. I know that you thought Turners were in the mix a while back, Basil, but HLG may have timed its run to perfection. Next week you reckon? Can't wait!
Pleased to help mate. Glad you are on board.
Turners at position 52 after PPH exit from the index are still in the frame for later this year or 2024.
Need two other constituents to be removed from the index in the regular quarterly rebalancing process and both SML and WHS are making great progress in that regard. Based on 6 month price average though so Sept quarter rebalance is the most realistic next chance for a further index constituent change in my opinion. Turners will get their turn...you see what I did there 😊
Share price 7 bucks today / tomorrow
And then when actually announced 8 bucks?
should top past 8.50 on the next high...
amazing control of selling expenses for 23 and 21.
Quote from: Waltzing on May 01, 2023, 11:35 AMshould top past 8.50 on the next high...
amazing control of selling expenses for 23 and 21.
Yes waltz .....HLG do a lot of 'amazing' things
its a buy at 5.80 if it doesnt make it...
either way your all Winners()....$$$$
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/market-close-nz-stocks-finish-lower-despite-recovery-from-sharp-fall/3EX2KOLO65B67ESQ3QRKKPZUEQ/
Paywalled - extract
At home, Hallenstein Glasson added a further 18c or 2.88 per cent to $6.43 after reaching an intraday high of $6.60 and has now risen nearly 10 per cent in two trading days. Hallenstein Glasson reported a robust first half result, and the stock is tipped to replace Pushpay Holdings in the NZX top 50.
At what point does a company get a speeding ticket from the regulator? Just curious....
Since things are looking bleak with GOVT debt forecast to hit 42 next year and NZ looking at have one of the highest OCR rates ahead ...
they might be too scare to issue a please explain as anything to lift the spirits of the market might be deemed essential therapy....
no super rich applying to come here anymore and the NZX is desperate for something... anything to go up...
Also its a thinly traded shock with a very high dividend ... why would it not go up... everyone has been waiting for it so long its almost bewildering...
what the SP handle went up? NO surely not...it never stays there... and thats why someone here said they would sell at 8.50...
but that means shorting the AUSS dollar at that price and with AUS mineral resources still going strong for the next decade why would you sell the AUS dollar?
Westpac Red Book has good insights into Australia retail scene
Go Glassons
You never know even Hallensteins might make a mark over there ...doubt it though ....probably still a drag on profitability so maybe walk away a option
https://library.westpaciq.com.au/content/dam/public/westpaciq/secure/economics/documents/aus/2023/04/WestpacRedBookApril2023.pdf
Quote from: Ferg on May 01, 2023, 06:47 PMAt what point does a company get a speeding ticket from the regulator? Just curious....
Speeding tickets come with large SP movements without an obvious reason (I .e. potential insider trading).
However - HLG did just report, and it would not be unreasonable for the average investor to see the results as positive, wouldn't it?
No cause for a speeding ticket.
Quote from: BlackPeter on May 02, 2023, 09:27 AMSpeeding tickets come with large SP movements without an obvious reason (I .e. potential insider trading).
However - HLG did just report, and it would not be unreasonable for the average investor to see the results as positive, wouldn't it?
No cause for a speeding ticket.
Doubt whether the report published the other day had much to do with the share price rocketing up
After all it was just the glossy version of what was published a month ago.
All to do with speculation of NXZ50 inclusion ...but wouldn't it be funny if some body like Solomon Lew tossed in a $8 takeover bid
Tim Glasson probably tell them to go away and get real. First offer needs to start at $10 or don't waste my time.
I know at least one of the other 37 shareholders in the very fortunate position of having 100,000+ shares, would say the same.
unless the bottom of the AUSSI economy falls out its a long term hold ... AI just helps them reduce ADMIN but really selling expenses are the big one and they seem to havc that under control ATM.
They dont seem to have a problem in the back office unlike WHATS ITS name....
Quote from: Waltzing on May 02, 2023, 10:40 AMunless the bottom of the AUSSI economy falls out its a long term hold ... AI just helps them reduce ADMIN but really selling expenses are the big one and they seem to havc that under control ATM.
They dont seem to have a problem in the back office unlike WHATS ITS name....
Agreed.
WHATS ITS name.... I'll play. Too easy. Not WHS by any chance ;D
Quote from: winner (n) on May 02, 2023, 09:37 AMDoubt whether the report published the other day had much to do with the share price rocketing up
After all it was just the glossy version of what was published a month ago.
All to do with speculation of NXZ50 inclusion ...but wouldn't it be funny if some body like Solomon Lew tossed in a $8 takeover bid
Interesting point ... and yes, you are right, most data have been available since mid April or so.
But then, I often wonder why the NZ markets are often so slow to react. I know some investors who wait for the printed report to arrive, I know more investors who first wait for the broker recommendation ... and don't forget - if you first have to find (or free up) the funds before you can invest them into the nextbigthing, it takes at least some more days as well.
These things are particularly true for a company like HLG with basically just a handful of big shareholders from the family and the rest retail investors.
I think the price rise is related to the recent results, but sure - the NXZ50 speculation will help. Given the liquidity of the stock any rumour will move the SP.
Interesting is that NZX50 entries and exits are normally SP-wise (but a days worth of SP-ripples) non-events, but sure - fun for traders.
"Not WHS by any chance"
T7 staff were fabulous this summer and deserve a better managed company.
HJG vars % tells the story and running fashion retail must be a challenging business to be in.
If this drop below 6 dollars one would have to consider some serious buying..
Of course some are well ahead of the hunt here...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FiK5VeAboOI
and for those of you with some irish DNA... this is the real thing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HpOpefBhGaQ
Can you can get speeding tickets on falling share price?
Quote from: winner (n) on May 02, 2023, 06:02 PMCan you can get speeding tickets on falling share price?
Or is that a ticket for going too slow?
scrapped .... binned ... just when you though there was no chance ....
how long has this company been performing? why now?
Very good news, just announced. https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/indexnews/announcements/20230503-1463800/1463800_20230503-nzx-pph.pdf HLG to replace PPH in the NZX50 index
Quote from: Basil on May 03, 2023, 05:58 PMVery good news, just announced. https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/indexnews/announcements/20230503-1463800/1463800_20230503-nzx-pph.pdf HLG to replace PPH in the NZX50 index
Yea, great news.
ABS Retail sales for March month out
Clothing (including footwear and accessories) March month sales UP 4% on last year
Overall retail a bit subdued in March but clothing seems to be OK ...even if it is $s with volunevprobably down ....but then it's cash that goes into the bank eh.
Quote from: Basil on May 03, 2023, 05:58 PMVery good news, just announced. https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/indexnews/announcements/20230503-1463800/1463800_20230503-nzx-pph.pdf HLG to replace PPH in the NZX50 index
That didn't take long. Good news.
Does it mean my modest baggie of shares will sell for $10 tomorrow? ;)
Should be a fun day tomorrow. $7 anyone?
This from Balance in the other place sums the situation up very well. Couldn't have said it better myself if I tried, especially after quaffing a few celebratory drinks this evening lol.
Nice to see HLG achieve NZX50 inclusion status. Very nice.
QuoteIt has always been worth a lot more than it has been trading at imo - lack of interest from brokers, analysts and instos due to it not being in the NZX50.
Now they have no option but to take interest.
They will find a well managed company with an excellent track record and a reliable high dividend yielder. And an outstanding conservative balance sheet with cash in the bank - similar to Briscoes.
And with its inclusion in the NZX50, they are going to have to pay up to get set as the stock is tightly held by mostly retail investors and management/directors.
Happy times ahead!
well... oh my oh my... sailing away ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LTrk4X9ACtw
Think Steve Winwood says it best. Enjoy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Adw772km7PQ
This very high quality pedigree puppy has been in the very high $7's before...no reason it shouldn't go back there as a minimum.
Does this mean that certain retail investors have more sense than insto?
Well done holders..... great news on NZX inclusion.
Gosh yesterday was the last day to get a bargain?
Quote from: LoungeLizard on May 03, 2023, 07:55 PMShould be a fun day tomorrow. $7 anyone?
Was a fun day. Good things take time and great things take a little longer :D
Quote from: Basil on May 03, 2023, 08:24 PMThink Steve Winwood says it best. Enjoy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Adw772km7PQ
This very high quality pedigree puppy has been in the very high $7's before...no reason it shouldn't go back there as a minimum.
So - is this the mark when you will start selling?
204k shares changing hands today. If, as some have calculated, the index funds need to snaffle 1.5m, then the SP has some way to go yet. By the end of the ride - which could be days or weeks - I can't see how the SP won't be nearer to $8 than $7.
BP - That comment I made speaks for itself.
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976521678/nz-market-bounces-back-from-morning-low.html?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GoodReturns+Market+Report+for+4+May+2023
Index inclusion has been a long time coming. Congrats to all holders.
200T would on any normal day send the SP sky high..
Show there are holders waiting to sell.
Quote from: Waltzing on May 04, 2023, 10:27 PM200T would on any normal day send the SP sky high..
Show there are holders waiting to sell.
There's always "the impatient" who are prepared to hand over value to investors with patience.
I would expect a quieter day today in terms of volume as the institutional players often have their very long Friday afternoon boozy lunches.
Must be pretty cool to be paid half a million plus for simply schmoozing with the right people and reading a bunch of analysts' reports.
Game of bluff going on - the Insto's holding back trying to lure in the uninitiated to sell at what they think is the peak. They'll come out of the shadows eventually - they have to balance their indexed funds. I imagine some retail investors will bail and take their profits at what they think is the true peak. What that is, is anyone's guess. I'm still figuring on, or around, the $8 mark.
I'm an old bad dog and completely untrained against my instincts of resource guarding.
https://beagleslife.com/beagle-resource-guarding/
I post this so that the institutions will know if they are going to try and take some of my favorite things they will need to make me a very compelling offer otherwise I will simply ignore them. The key here is I don't have to do anything but they do...don't you just love NZX50 inclusions for illiquid stocks...been a very happy hunting ground for this Beagle for many years.
yes appears its only going one way from here and thats up ..
other sectors getting hammered today from sky falling syndrone..
Quote from: Waltzing on May 05, 2023, 01:11 PMyes appears its only going one way from here and thats up ..
Great week and great start to the index inclusion process...I feel an appropriate song coming on....ah yes....that's the one
Hold on, hold on, hold on...the only way is up https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vjD3EVC1-zU
Just as well 'peacockers' don't participate in Tony's spending surveys
Report says 25% of respondents intending to spend less on clothes
Any way inconsequential inso far as HLG group profits go ...but interesting insights
https://www.tonyalexander.nz/wp-content/uploads/TV-Spending-Plans-Survey-May-2023.pdf
Interesting, thanks for sharing.
HLG understand their target market very well. Young people really, really keen to look cool and fit in.
These days most of these people are deeply imbedded in social media, TikTok, Instagram, Fakebook, you name it. No surprise that HLG targets its advertising through these channels. I would think only a tiny percentage of HLG customers would have a mortgage. Most of their customers would be benefitting from the record high employment rate and fast rising wages for in demand young employees.
Should be an interesting week for HLG.
Ok in other words everyone has enjoyed a few years in the sun . Those bug filled summers were pretty awesome and now the rains here its off to AUS to make a TON more money for anyone can walk to the airport or take their new electric skate board with them...
Will it matter to the DIV if sales are stagnate in NZ while over the next decade AUS continues to sail away from NZ GDP wise?
HLG will SALE away with them...
No it won't matter. Apart from many other differences between the retailers one of the biggest from a valuation consideration perspective is that as discussed before Glassons Au is a high growth proven performer with a vast runway of growth ahead and Glassons Australia sales will soon exceed total group N.Z. sales. Briscoes and the Warehouse simply do not have that key attribute. HLG deserves a significant PE premium for that but it might take quite a while for that to eventuate.
In the meantime, it would be nice if we at least got back to the long run average PE of 12.5 this week.
My updated forecasted FY23 earnings is 63 cps, With a long run average PE of 12.5 x $0.63 = fair value in the short term is $7.88.
Looks like its all go for PPH to be delisted and HLG included in the NZX50. Final High Court Orders issued and NZX notice of intention to delist circulated.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PPH/411065/393911.pdf
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/PPH/411076/393924.pdf
So what's the count at so far. By my count 500k shares acquired out of 1.8mill needed. Still a long way to go unless they've made a deal with a holder.
Quote from: Scooter on May 08, 2023, 04:39 PMSo what's the count at so far. By my count 500k shares acquired out of 1.8mill needed. Still a long way to go unless they've made a deal with a holder.
~ 204K on Thursday, ~67K on Friday and today. Yeap, looks like very close to 500K so far, but probably quite a few of those will have been speculative purchases looking to resell at a higher price.
Could be anyone and everyone buying... and that buying might not slow down as SHAZ buy a share thats now in the index.
snow next week and that means winter retail season starts soon.
Quote from: Basil on May 08, 2023, 04:57 PM~ 204K on Thursday, ~67K on Friday and today. Yeap, looks like very close to 500K so far, but probably quite a few of those will have been speculative purchases looking to resell at a higher price.
Illiquid stock at this stage until it enters the index - so fundies are most likely accumulating on market to cross to index funds on indexing day.
Given that they are having to pay up to get stock, they will want an ever higher price to cross the accumulated shares to the index funds.
Quote from: Teitei on May 08, 2023, 08:13 PMIlliquid stock at this stage until it enters the index - so fundies are most likely accumulating on market to cross to index funds on indexing day.
Given that they are having to pay up to get stock, they will want an ever higher price to cross the accumulated shares to the index funds.
Agreed. Happy shareholders who backed up the truck in the very low $5's watching the action. ;D
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/TsR64xXB8LI
" speculative purchases"
and why not .... indeed its the news many will want to hear as inclusion means momentum by increasing numbers...
Quote from: Basil on May 08, 2023, 08:33 PMAgreed. Happy shareholders who backed up the truck in the very low $5's watching the action. ;D
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/TsR64xXB8LI
Selling any over the next couple of days? Personally I would but that's just me 8)
Quote from: Crackity on May 09, 2023, 10:00 AMSelling any over the next couple of days? Personally I would but that's just me 8)
Would depend on the price offered. Could sell, but then what to buy to replace it.
Quote from: Crackity on May 09, 2023, 10:00 AMSelling any over the next couple of days? Personally I would but that's just me 8)
Not me. Could be wrong but my feeling is that the SP will continue to kick upwards over the next week or so. Besides which, it's a hold just for the dividend and longer term growth prospects. There's not many other stocks in the current climate that one could safely park one's money and earn a reasonable divvy.
why sell a share thats only just getting started on its next up cycle...
and there is a new share app on the market from AUS...
SHAZ platform could get the squeeze as WBC local CEO says hard landing for the plane...
AMAZING that a retail share is a performer in a technical recession.
Last night's market close report said inclusion in nzx50 probably short lived
A couple if big lisings likely and hlg will be booted our
Easy come easy go ...make the most of it
But Robertshawe said Hallenstein Glasson would be bumped out just as quickly if a company like freight forwarder Mondiale listed. "Telco 2 degrees could also come to the market within the next 12 months."
Mondiale indicated it would consider an initial public offer once the merger with Australia's Visa Global Logistics was completed. But no timeframe has been set.
up cycles for HLG usually last a while even without inclusion in an Index...
scaring the cats ...
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/methodologies/methodology-sp-nzx-index.pdf
Quote from: winner (n) on May 09, 2023, 11:17 AMLast night's market close report said inclusion in nzx50 probably short lived
A couple if big lisings likely and hlg will be booted our
Easy come easy go ...make the most of it
Saw that and that guy is not up with the play. If any company is to get booted out in due course due to one of those listings it'll be based on 6 month average free float market cap and in that regard WHS or SML will be prime candidates due to the collapse in their share prices. SKO current position 50 would also be in the running for exclusion. HLG would very easily beat all three to stay in the index with the share price where it currently sits.
6.91 pushing 7 ....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cG-RvZXfees
now in case you think this is all fantasy ... by 1967 the fastest man alive was flying 6.5..
Seems HLG might have to do some work on their ESG ratings..... :o
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/lifestyle/2023/05/glassons-hallensteins-lagging-behind-international-transparency-standards-on-where-their-clothes-are-made-oxfam.html
Nahhh
just keep pushing the throttles forward...
"Through the campaign, Oxfam works directly with the brands to help them achieve a series of milestones,"
just give them a seat on the board why dont you... what a load of ...
Sounds like a case of simply updating their sustainability gumph, last updated March 2022
https://www.glassons.com/nz/sustainability
~ 850K shares traded in the 4 days since NZX50 inclusion was confirmed.
Quote from: Basil on May 09, 2023, 05:42 PMSounds like a case of simply updating their sustainability gumph, last updated March 2022
https://www.glassons.com/nz/sustainability
~ 850K shares traded in the 4 days since NZX50 inclusion was confirmed.
Good story driven by Oxfarm .......but basically nothing to see here
AUS GDP expect 1.5 for the next few years but that depends on resource prices.
unEmployment 4.5
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/may/09/six-budget-2023-graphs-explain-surplus-australia-federal-may-labor-predictions-tax-revenue-cost-of-living-inflation-wages-unemployment-jobseeker-welfare
Quote from: Left Field on May 09, 2023, 04:39 PMSeems HLG might have to do some work on their ESG ratings..... :o
...
Man I hope they steer well clear of that scam
Black mail .... and there are lots of them doing it... social media the new danger to public companies along with socialist governments...
hope HLG ignores it or rather never contacts them...
"work with them"
arrogrance of the first order...
some SP's coming through...
Wow - huge late-day trading volume - $1.5m!
Now thats something to behold ......
Make that $1.75m. Clearly some deals being made behind the scenes. Is that the peak from inclusion on NZX50 I wonder? Tomorrows trading will tell. Still a hold for me, either way.
Quote from: LoungeLizard on May 10, 2023, 05:09 PMMake that $1.75m. Clearly some deals being made behind the scenes. Is that the peak from inclusion on NZX50 I wonder? Tomorrows trading will tell. Still a hold for me, either way.
Maybe some of the early present bought being transferred into the rightful funds
Index inclusion Impact
And there we have it Ladies and Gentlemen. Closing match price $6.85 today upon entry into the NZX50 which is within 1 cent of the VWAP of the previous two days on elevated volumes.
Not as much as many of us would have liked including myself, but the fact is HLG has built a base of ~ $5.40 average over the last year and was trading at around that level before very recently the market woke up to the prospect of NZX50 inclusion, possibly helped by some dog barking about it. An effective ~ 27% share price bounce ($6.85 / $5.40) is impressive. Arguably that $5.40 could be a bit lower as it went ex a 24 cent divvy in April, so its quite plausible to suggest its really ($6.85 / $5.16) = ~ 33% price bounce on index inclusion which is right at the very top end of price impact from previous NZX50 inclusions I have seen over many years. I feel very content with that in the context of a very soft market overall.
Looking forward
The metrics at $6.85 based on say 62 cps in earnings in FY23 and 48 cps in dividends + 5 cents in imputation credits in FY24, (Unchanged from FY23), are
FY23 forecast PE 11 (6.85 / 0.62) and FY24 forecast gross yield of 7.7% (0.53 / $6.85). Attractive metrics for a company with a proven track record of strong growth with Glassons Au.
looks like CPI not out of control in the US...
rate hikes not looking to go much higher at this point in time.....
If this floats back to the low 6's you got a bargain on say the market getting a bit softer through the winter..
with the inclusion brokers may actually start pushing the company to clients and we dont get a 6 bucks bargain ..
Interesting comparing the HLG metrics noted above at $6.85 with well respected Briscoes, very similar numbers.
Very different balance dates, (almost couldn't possibly be further apart, 1 August v 31 January) so I have used Briscoes historical earnings knowing Rod Duke sees tough times ahead, (so that sort of favours BGP because current year earnings could be weaker) and we have BGP on a historical PE of 11.2 and gross yield with full imputation credits of 8.7%.
I would argue Briscoes is more exposed to the softer economy with the wide age range of their customers meaning a much higher percentage are likely to have mortgages and be affected by the higher interest rates. By comparison HLG mostly have peacocking young people 13-30 that make up the bulk of their customers largely unaffected by higher mortgage rates.
BGP doesn't have the tremendous long term growth prospects Glassons Au has. I would argue HLG deserve a modest premium to BPG's metrics to reflect the advantages HLG's business model enjoys with their customer demographic and the growth with Glassons Au.
Could there be a bit of a pullback now that index inclusion is finished, sure, but it doesn't always happen as some on the other platform are asserting. Recent evidence is CHI's index inclusion in March and the price has barely moved after inclusion. Long term investors look set to reap the benefits of the compelling growth story Glasson's Au looks very well positioned to deliver.
Another interesting peer group comparison is WHS trading on 17.5 times this years forecasted earnings, (based on average analyst estimate), and looking highly likely to get booted out of the NZX50 at some stage this year. Very interesting metric that one considering their track record. People must be baking in a huge recovery in earnings in FY24 and FY25 with that one...but how can you be sure it will happen?
BRIS is not a case of load up for sure and probably wont resume it growth path until 2025 as long as a LBA govt hasnt decimated the economy...
No high net worth individuals looking to come south.... its go West young person... go West ... to kanga land...
HLG's next financials going to be very very intersting and some much bigger models underway to cater for long term tracking of stats.
Quote from: Basil on May 11, 2023, 09:39 AMInteresting comparing the HLG metrics noted above at $6.85 with well respected Briscoes, very similar numbers.
Very different balance dates, ...so I have used Briscoes historical earnings knowing Rod Duke sees tough times ahead, (so that sort of favours BGP because current year earnings could be weaker) and we have BGP on a historical PE of 11.2 and gross yield with full imputation credits of 8.7%.
Quote from: Basil on May 08, 2023, 10:21 AMMy updated forecasted FY23 earnings is 63 cps, With a long run average PE of 12.5 x $0.63 = fair value in the short term is $7.88.
Could also be that the market agrees with Rod and is concerned that in current recessionary times, your expectation of HLG's return to a "long run average PE of 12.5" may not happen for some time.
(Just saying.)
Quote from: Left Field on May 11, 2023, 10:14 AMCould also be that the market agrees with Rod and is concerned whether in current recessionary times, your expectation of HLG's return to a "long runs average PE of 12.5" may not happen for some time.
(Just saying.)
No debate about that mate. The market said exactly that yesterday. I was expecting a final match price in the $7's somewhere but the market said no, you'll have to wait until the recession is over, or close to being over. HLG themselves expect Australia to be more resilient than N.Z so I think that points to the key Glassons Au advantage they have compared to their peer group that I've been talking about.
Australians can simply dig up more dirt and reap the benefits in their economy whereas here...
YUP... YUP ..YAP ... and thats why we might get a chance to get some more at a bargain...
5.80 ..... YUP YUP NUP?
SP on a bit of a slide this morning, as predicted, but on very low volumes at the moment. Hope those of you wanting to cash up/ scale down did so ;D
Will be interesting to see where a new support level is established - I can't imagine the fund mangers wanting it to slide much further.
Quote from: LoungeLizard on May 11, 2023, 01:03 PMSP on a bit of a slide this morning, as predicted, but on very low volumes at the moment. Hope those of you wanting to cash up/ scale down did so ;D
Will be interesting to see where a new support level is established - I can't imagine the fund mangers wanting it to slide much further.
You say - can't imagine the fund mangers wanting it to slide much further.
Don't quite get what you mean ......don't they just follow the index through good and bad
Quote from: winner (n) on May 11, 2023, 01:36 PMYou say - can't imagine the fund mangers wanting it to slide much further.
Don't quite get what you mean ......don't they just follow the index through good and bad
Yes, that's my point - they do follow the index. Just saying they won't
want the SP to fall further as their hands are tied.
Looks as though things are settling around the $6.50 mark with very low selling. I'm ok with that if that's the case - a good base for gains further on if Basil's forecasts are correct.
imagine picking some more up at 6 or under ... steal...
and 6 ........ 5.50 in the depths of winter?
market starting to price in a recession ....
You buying Waltzing? Below $6 today is a steal in your books.
Surprising and disappointing to see it dropped like that after NZX50 inclusion.
Crickey, down $1 since the inclusion last week. I wouldn't have picked that.
The tone of some of the posts on the other site today was unfortunate to say the least and may have contributed to a bunch of scared rabbits running for the hills.
. picking that this winter may bring some horrible news from the trenches in AUS..(yeah right pass the Tui ) and we get some at 5.50 which is what the graph says...
Mr B will can buy some more if it does cause Soros always said when it looks good go for the big one...
which party governs wont really effect this one to much as neither side of the beehive wants people to go without the basics such as some nice clothes and swim gear for next summer...
whats the point in being in NZ if you cant get some nice gear and go to the beach.... its a basic right and that means giving people some money...from anywhere the govt can find it...
Yeah, I didn't pick the SP dropping so far so fast either. On low daily volumes for the most part - a few traders taking their profits can hammer an illiquid stock. I can't see it going much further?? but I'll look at adding a few more if it does.
There's a few recession jitters but I see HLG's Aus operations being pretty solid and in the meantime happy to pick up at least another 24c divvy at year end :P
thats the problem to getting them... everyone is waiting for a bargain... SOOOOoooooo ooo ooo o o
pass the TUI...
Aussie clothing retailer Best & Less has massive profit downgrade
Times tougher than expected
https://www.businessnewsaustralia.com/articles/best---less-puts-profit-guidance-on-the-discount-rack.html
Quote from: winner (n) on May 17, 2023, 02:55 PMAussie clothing retailer Best & Less has massive profit downgrade
Times tougher than expected
https://www.businessnewsaustralia.com/articles/best---less-puts-profit-guidance-on-the-discount-rack.html
Premier Investments sp has been falling in recent times towards YTD lows. Market anticipating some tough times ahead? Or are the hard times already here?
if the next 12 months are hummm rather harder sledging then if you get 3.50 ...
rebalance into HLG.... that has been when some nice profits were made ...
cycling kind of stock ...
get your pastels out and draw along the bottom left to right and its steadily rising...
ok may 3.50 was a bit ripe but mid to high 4's is possible in light of the dire warning from sydney morning rag...
everyone remember the first time they tried to pick one up and read it... that was decades ago but no wonder they dont have any trees in most of Kanga land... it all got copped down for news papers....
Quote from: Waltzing on May 17, 2023, 04:30 PM.....get your pastels out and draw along the bottom left to right and its steadily rising...
Yeah rising..... but hardly impressive when compared to NZX50 averages (see chart below) Punters will say, "SP growth is not everything.... look at our fabulous div yield."
Here's some more food for thought from Alokdhir on the other channel...
"
Maybe now is the time to look for long term growth stocks at bargain prices and not chase or be happy with yield players ...which is easier way but in long term growth stocks will easily outpace current yielders for absolute returns
Eg ...in 2014 MFT was $ 18 and HLG at $ 3.20 ...now even in downtrend MFT is $ 70 and HLG at $ 5.80 ...all can do the maths"
Interesting times.......
Maybe many we'll known growth stocks are already priced for perfection and you are better off owning stocks yielding 9 - 10 % where the market is not currently recognizing their growth ?
HLG and TRA posting record profits in difficult economic times suggests to me they will really shine when we come out the other side of this recession.
Why pay for perfection on really elevated metrics when you can buy high quality GARP, (growth at a reasonable price) stocks on a PE of 10 or slightly less !
HLG SP has been hit hard before on retail sales cycling down turns.
yet in those periods and wish now the daily worksheet charts had included HLG...
did the DIV not hit a yeild of 13%?
That was the increedulous moments when the SP diverged from the DIV and in the next 24 months it might do it again...
Change of seasons about to occur.
Quote from: Basil on May 18, 2023, 09:21 AMMaybe many we'll known growth stocks are already priced for perfection and you are better off owning stocks yielding 9 - 10 % where the market is not currently recognizing their growth ?
HLG and TRA posting record profits in difficult economic times suggests to me they will really shine when we come out the other side of this recession.
Why pay for perfection on really elevated metrics when you can buy high quality GARP stocks on a PE of 10 or slightly less !
Disappointing to see HLG not reaping post index benefit from inclusion in NZX50.
It's not just a case of index tracker funds having to buy on indexing day but funds which measure their performance against NZX50 need to consider whether they go overweight or underweight HLG so that their performances are not too far out from the index.
Guess it is a case of them being happy to be underweight or even out of the stock due to their concerns about the impact of recession on the retail sector.
I believe it will change once the brokers and analysts start seriously analysing the stock.
AUS retail sales Mom.. Chart from https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/retail-sales
Its always been a stock where you had to wait a year or 2 for the bounce and it is seen as a cycling sector..
SP bouncing back nicely.
HLG so lightly traded, hard to consider the move of 20,000 shares as material
All she has to do is putta long as always until the next big news dump...
heres hoping... (hopeum)..
a no hype stock... not a one year wonder...
A Director increased their interest the other day
Always good sign insiders buying albeit through a share club whatever that is
Not so much noise from the sour pusses on the other forum and the shares bounce. Coincidence ?
I have no idea which way from here in the short term but I reckon the long term prognosis and metrics at the current price, $6 are very sound indeed.
For my next magic trick tune into the TRA thread.
Quote from: Basil on May 18, 2023, 06:32 PMNot so much noise from the sour pusses on the other forum
For my next magic trick ???
Give it a break, make others smile
Quote from: Basil on May 18, 2023, 06:32 PMNot so much noise from the sour pusses on the other forum and the shares bounce. Coincidence ?
I have no idea which way from here in the short term but I reckon the long term prognosis and metrics at the current price, $6 are very sound indeed.
For my next magic trick tune into the TRA thread.
Come back to the other forum, you will have a wider audience. But don't be a pussy ;D
Well people maybe the big Govt SPENDAROO is just what we mentioned a few moons ago and the GOVT does not want the little KIWI's to go without their beach gear this summer and to keep warm this winter...
Pump it UP!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BfnjX88Va4Y
dont think there are going to be any beagles coming back in the next life as Cats....
This threads is not EBO... no vet services on this thread..
Nah ! LET the DOGS OUT...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ojULkWEUsPs
Quote from: Habitz on May 19, 2023, 08:30 AMCome back to the other forum, you will have a wider audience. But don't be a pussy ;D
The other forum is full of in-fighting and slagging each other off. We don't want this one to go the same way.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/411688/394699.pdf
Ouch that's a big loss. He impressed me.
On a positive note I think we all know the real growth with this company is with Glassons Au and James is doing a fabulous job there and obviously he's intrinsically tied in with his father's 20% stake so is heavily incentivized to stay.
Quote from: Basil on May 19, 2023, 09:53 AMhttp://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/411688/394699.pdf
Ouch that's a big loss. He impressed me.
On a positive note I think we all know the real growth with this company is with Glassons Au and James is doing a fabulous job there and obviously he's intrinsically tied in with his father's 20% stake so is heavily incentivized to stay.
Wonder where the grass is greener
There are some very big oeprations in AUS and it might be that the big players have noticed a little shop selling some stuff off coat hangers.. from across the ditch..
remember the decades when NZ companies would wonder over the ditch and drown..
I'm told young Wellington ladies are raving about Lululemon stuff ...better than Glassons they say
Can even invest in them LULU on Nasdaq
turned into a power day in light for the storm out there...
Boomaroo budget should help...
natioanl debt funds retail again...
Quote from: winner (n) on May 19, 2023, 12:54 PMI'm told young Wellington ladies are raving about Lululemon stuff ...better than Glassons they say
Can even invest in them LULU on Nasdaq
Pretty good company too, trading at 46 times FY23 earnings though :o
12% sales growth projected for 2024.
You're welcome to it mate, fill ya boots ;)
HLG at $6 on a FY23 PE of 9.7 based on my estimate of 62 cps in earnings.
Got chatting to Whome today and we both wonder if James Glasson is going to come over here for a while after Stuart Duncan leaves and work some of his magic sorting out Glassons N.Z. and maybe Hollensteins too ?
The Treasury numbers arnt expecting a recession in NZ this year... according the interview today from the olympic minister..
with the Boomaroo budget and no recession retail looks set to continue chugging along..
also must be good for TRA...
from Business STUFFED this morning "the ATO TA TA" new site for the WOKIE DOKIE brigade ...
GOOD NEWS!!!!
"A recession may not be a certainty this year, but that doesn't mean things will be any easier for households, economists say.
When the Budget was announced this week, it was revealed that Treasury no longer expects the economy to enter a recession.
The Treasury is forecasting relatively robust economic growth of 3.2% in the year to the end of next month, and a more tepid 1% rise in GDP the following year.
The "strong economy" would weather the storm of a "challenging global environment" and the Treasury now expected inflation to drop back under 3% late next year, the olympic minister said."
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300884341/recession-or-not-brace-for-tough-times-economists-say
The wait will seem long though as winter days drag on ..
" official cash rate (OCR) was likely to need to rise to 6% "
and that will keep SP's depressed ..
6.23.... stunning day... are we seeing the Boomaroo budget in action here?
Looking goood...
Great company but I'm not expecting much to happen for 3 months until late August when they update the market on 2 H Sales and annual profit forecast.
Universal Stores in OZ raved about F23 sales going to be a record
But then they said this -
More recently, trading conditions observed throughout April and May to date have further tightened indicating that some customers are reducing their spending. The Group expects this subdued environment to continue for the balance of FY23 and into FY24
And the UNI share price plunged 25%
Jeez ....hope this never happens to HLG
Yup. Update was miles from consensus. Similar customer demo to HLG (same age but slightly more menswear focused). Pleased I took my UNI profits at A$6 and bagged a div on the way.
CBA retail & apparel card spending for OZ taking a hit.
Complete aside - a bit of a hit job on HLG today in the NBR from their resident left wing reporter on their ESG credentials. Was a bit silly as HLG's baptist church audits have been pretty good
Crikey you did well selling at A$6.00.
Quote from: Fiordland Moose on May 24, 2023, 03:14 PMYup. Update was miles from consensus. Similar customer demo to HLG (same age but slightly more menswear focused). Pleased I took my UNI profits at A$6 and bagged a div on the way.
CBA retail & apparel card spending for OZ taking a hit.
Complete aside - a bit of a hit job on HLG today in the NBR from their resident left wing reporter on their ESG credentials. Was a bit silly as HLG's baptist church audits have been pretty good
Hitjob? Lets face it - HLG's credentials related to their environmental and responsible sourcing policies are next to zero. From memory - they got in the last independent assessment a 2 out of 5 with e.g. Kathmandu getting 5 out of 5.
I've seen that in other places as well, but here is one link: Glassons - NOT GOOD ENOUGH!
https://directory.goodonyou.eco/brand/glassons
I recon their customer base is going to fade fast if they keep ignoring the environment and basic human rights ...
I thought the article was unfair.
The most comprehensive publicly available review of fashion brands ethical credentials comes from the Tearfund Baptist Ethical Fashion Report which gets released every year. Glassons is in the top 20% of brands - the article didn't mention that. Those audits recently changed in the scores they award - previous an A to F rating - and now give a numerical output. If I recall correctly glassons at one point got an A score prior to the change.
NBR article didn't mention that even though it was directly relevant to the story.
The low score in this oxfam thing came because they declined to provide information on its suppliers to Oxfam. Why they voluntarily entered the oxfam review and then didn't stump up with information is unusual & undesirable. The low oxfam score was mainly because they failed to provide supplier names - not because of something untoward found during oxfams review. They should either provide the information or withdraw from the review.
Agree its increasingly relevant to customers & something that should be taken seriously.
Not sure the glassons client base are thinking about ESG when they shop do they?
Just saying as the designer i talk to in Auss just doesnt look like an ESG person.
She says they have always nailed it from the get go.
That report high lighted that these orgs exist to pay themselves some money for Anthropology work they may have failed to get at UNI..
They did not want to to join the protest ships trying to stop japanese whaling.
Quote from: Waltzing on May 25, 2023, 10:03 AMNot sure the glassons client base are thinking about ESG when they shop do they?
Just saying as the designer i talk to in Auss just doesnt look like an ESG person.
She says they have always nailed it from the get go.
That report high lighted that these orgs exist to pay themselves some money for Anthropology work they may have failed to get at UNI..
They did not want to to join the protest ships trying to stop japanese whaling.
According to Nielsen, 75% of Millennials are eco-conscious to the point of changing their buying habits to favor environmentally-friendly products. A Pew Research Center survey finds Millennials and Gen Z stand out for their high levels of engagement with the issue of climate change.
https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2021/05/26/gen-z-millennials-stand-out-for-climate-change-activism-social-media-engagement-with-issue/
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/how-millennials-and-gen-z-are-driving-growth-behind-esg
Given that both Hallensteins and Glassons, but particularly Glassons are focussing on the younger generation I'd call it short sighted if they don't try to look ESG wise good.
As a share holder I would be concerned if they ignore the majority of their target customers. Always dangerous (and very often wrong) if oldies think that the young generation thinks exactly the same as the old ones do :) ;
ESG sceptics are much more likely people who have already the better part of their life behind them and don't want to be bothered to improve the life of future generations. Hey, they have already had a good live and their future life expectancy is shrinking. Why care about children and grand children ...?
Ok you may be right but honestly my designer friend just nods when ESG comes up and then it gets left at the door when she hits the ranks...
it seems it flys out the window when the cat walk is set up and the parade starts and the champagne flows...
Hector plains wants photo shoot negatives....
Quote from: Waltzing on May 25, 2023, 11:42 AMOk you may be right but honestly my designer friend just nods when ESG comes up and then it gets left at the door when she hits the ranks...
it seems it flys out the window when the cat walk is set up and the parade starts and the champagne flows...
Designer friend, eh. Is this another AI thing?
Hector plains wants photo shoot negatives....
id have to ask to publish the Hong Kong Ballet performance shoot..
and it would be denied for this site... "what site?" she would say...
Things might be slowing down big time in Oz ...even for peacock
From Westpac
The Westpac Card Tracker Index continues to point to a further weakening in consumer demand. The Index declined 5.0pts to 130.6 over the two weeks to May 20, showing a continued downturn from the brief holiday-related bounce in early April. Adjusting for regular seasonal variations, quarterly growth momentum in consumer-related card activity is now firmly in negative territory, having been about flat in the March quarter. I
Ok winner() it back to a trading stock then at 7% DIV and the last rate KICK is here...
market has been dumping stock cause it doesnt know where the rate KICKs are ending.. well they say it Here and NOW...
till it NOT...
NZD sinking into the 50's (USD) again
HLG got this covered?
My understanding is they usually forward cover the currency when they place orders with the manufacturers for the stock. At a rough guess, I presume that means they have recently been placing orders for production of spring and summer stock and forward covering based on about 62 cents US.
If the currency stays down I'd like to think young consumers are getting conditioned to inflation with their price expectations these days so paying a few dollars more for each garment to prance and peacock around in and make a good impression, is neither here nor there.
Sigh...Oh to be young again eh mate and peacock around....
Even 62c is very low compared to not to long ago. But I think you are right. Price creep because of inflationary, supply chain, interest rates, etc is all around us, and we have to adapt to that. The question is, will the ones that enjoy strutting around in new clothing be enough to result in an even higher share price in the medium term? For the time being it seems HLG has found a temporary spot around the $6.00 mark. Volume is extremely low with not even a handful of bidders at that level.
Dire , Dire.... bleak.... bleak....
Onemootpoint said ..... Price creep because of inflationary, supply chain, interest rates, etc
You forgot to add greedy corporations making excessive profits is one of the main causes of this inflation .......and HLG is one of the culprits
Quote from: Onemootpoint on May 31, 2023, 03:31 PMEven 62c is very low compared to not to long ago. But I think you are right. Price creep because of inflationary, supply chain, interest rates, etc is all around us, and we have to adapt to that. The question is, will the ones that enjoy strutting around in new clothing be enough to result in an even higher share price in the medium term? For the time being it seems HLG has found a temporary spot around the $6.00 mark. Volume is extremely low with not even a handful of bidders at that level.
I guess it depends upon your definition of "medium term" I think as the next 5 years, others will have a different view on their interpretation. When I look at thew way Glassons Au has grown over the last 5 years which is my standard way to measure growth, I am very optimistic for the future of Glassons Au but I think Hallensteins and Glassons N.Z. are very mature, no growth business's. Perhaps their lack of growth prospects got the outgoing CEO Stuart Duncan a bit frustrated?
It is pleasing not all of the NZX50 inclusion was given back. Currently trading a little under 10 times my FY23 estimate of 60-63 cents eps. I think we need to see more evidence around how resilient the business is in the current half before we get much more price discovery on the market. This current recession won't last forever but HLG shares seemed priced as though it will...
Come on Winner, that's a bit harsh mate.
Trading Update - OZ and after NZX market close and also Michael Hill not HLG though could be germane to Glassons Oz as it is their growth engine. Probably should post it to the company it refers to as well but my bbq is on 🤭
Given the prevailing economic conditions and resulting softening of consumer sentiment, trade has been more challenging for the jewellery industry in the second half, particularly in Australia and New Zealand, with New Zealand having also been impacted by significant weather events and a recent resurgence of security incidents and related costs.
Third party transactional data for the total Australian retail jewellery segment has shown a double- digit decline in sales for the first four months of the second half. However, Michael Hill group sales for the second half1 are only down 3.5%, demonstrating that Michael Hill has continued to take market share even in a more challenging environment. Mi
Quote from: Basil on May 31, 2023, 04:17 PMI guess it depends upon your definition of "medium term" I think as the next 5 years, others will have a different view on their interpretation. When I look at thew way Glassons Au has grown over the last 5 years which is my standard way to measure growth, I am very optimistic for the future of Glassons Au but I think Hallensteins and Glassons N.Z. are very mature, no growth business's. Perhaps their lack of growth prospects got the outgoing CEO Stuart Duncan a bit frustrated?
It is pleasing not all of the NZX50 inclusion was given back. Currently trading a little under 10 times my FY23 estimate of 60-63 cents eps. I think we need to see more evidence around how resilient the business is in the current half before we get much more price discovery on the market. This current recession won't last forever but HLG shares seemed priced as though it will...
Come on Winner, that's a bit harsh mate.
Can't disagree with that.
property stocks like GMT bottomed last october ....
and no more kick up the ... from the OCR to come...
boy its a nail bitter...
Quote from: Crackity on May 31, 2023, 07:05 PMTrading Update - OZ and after NZX market close and also Michael Hill not HLG though could be germane to Glassons Oz as it is their growth engine. Probably should post it to the company it refers to as well but my bbq is on 🤭
Given the prevailing economic conditions and resulting softening of consumer sentiment, trade has been more challenging for the jewellery industry in the second half, particularly in Australia and New Zealand, with New Zealand having also been impacted by significant weather events and a recent resurgence of security incidents and related costs.
Third party transactional data for the total Australian retail jewellery segment has shown a double- digit decline in sales for the first four months of the second half. However, Michael Hill group sales for the second half1 are only down 3.5%, demonstrating that Michael Hill has continued to take market share even in a more challenging environment. Mi
Market is certainly pricing in a retail downturn.
Question is 'will it come to pass?'
Warnings from the big retailers :
https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/retail/wesfarmers-boss-warns-economic-honeymoon-is-over/news-story/c7aebd5c3f60bf3a9ccedb3e1f5f43bb
The boss of Bunnings and Kmart owner Wesfarmers has warned that "the honeymoon is very much over" after years of ultra-low interest rates and pandemic cash handouts.
what happens in 2025 ... if XI has not invaded TW .... will there be a few years before existing the market... taking the profits and going to GOLD...
Quote from: Waltzing on Jun 01, 2023, 10:55 AMwhat happens in 2025 ... if XI has not invaded TW .... will there be a few years before existing the market... taking the profits and going to GOLD...
China/Xi will not invade Taiwan - does not need to. Just like HK, matter of time before Taiwan returns back to its motherland. It's the West (US especially) which is stirring up tension to sell more arms and weapons. Taiwanese imo knows US will not come to its aid when push comes to shove.
So relax and focus on fundamentals!
Pass the TUI.... its starting to look like a sell on the next pop..
In Australia, rents are going up at a rate of 11-13% a year in Australia (and contributing to the hot inflation numbers over there) and today the student debt (HECS) interest rate just got indexed at 7.10%. Being young in Australia aint no bed of roses.
You need to get out there and fully update your wardrobe, that'll save us and ensure the next dividend is at least 24 cps 😁
I'd also help if Hallensteins made gear for super luxury sized Beagles lol
OZ rent increases horrendous as per chart Westpac
Peacockers probably shifting back to mom and dad so no worries for HLG
They say NZ numbers will look like this soon
0000rents.JPG
Quote from: Basil on Jun 01, 2023, 03:10 PMYou need to get out there and fully update your wardrobe, that'll save us and ensure the next dividend is at least 24 cps 😁
I'd also help if Hallensteins made gear for super luxury sized Beagles lol
Well, a close family member recently made a decently huge purchase at the G part of HLG.
Hope that helps. :D
Quote from: Basil on Jun 01, 2023, 03:10 PMYou need to get out there and fully update your wardrobe, that'll save us and ensure the next dividend is at least 24 cps 😁
I'd also help if Hallensteins made gear for super luxury sized Beagles lol
I'm not like their models but get my jeans and tees from them.
Recently needed a decent white shirt to go with suit for dinner with Governor General. Hallensteins had one that fitted fine. Deliveries pretty fast as well
Big Kings Birthday Sale on at moment
Getting a merino jumper for myself ....keep me warm this winter ......$59.99
Quote from: winner (n) on May 19, 2023, 12:54 PMI'm told young Wellington ladies are raving about Lululemon stuff ...better than Glassons they say
Can even invest in them LULU on Nasdaq
Your LULU going gangbusters. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/01/stocks-making-the-biggest-moves-after-hours-lulu-mdb-five.html Just reported latest quarter this morning...Younger demographic still spending and peacocking around in cool gear, no worries.
Seen some of their cool gear worn by young ladies at the dog park. Very shapely ;) Tony the Pony is not the only one enjoying trips to the dog park lol
I'm quite curious Basil - did you sell down into the index inclusion POP(!)? Or did you keep ALL your shares?
I think you've expressed your viewpoint in a very forthright manner on the other forum.
I would comment in response that the "scary" wage increases you're talking about that will affect Glassons staff are less than the rate of inflation in Australia...but, sigh, ...you know that already...anyway, I don't have any concerns there. Further, Glassons Au are very careful with their selection of new retail outlets and my understanding is they go through a very thorough due diligence process. James Glasson is a smart guy with a very smart mentor!
One thing you don't mention is that lease deals in a recession can often be signed on extremely advantageous terms and locked in with the usual review clauses. This obviously confers an advantage in better economic conditions in due course as the lease reviews are based on the initial discounted contract price. Various other significant concessions can be obtained in harder economic times as I am sure you know already but for some reason didn't mention, whereas you were very quick to mention the prospect of them overpaying for leases in better times, something I seriously doubt, especially in Covid times..
Regarding the under 35 demographic group thing. I am not sure if you know this, but Glassons target market is 13-30 years and the substantial majority in that age group will still be living at home with their parents. Care needs to be taken when considering a group of under 35's as accurately representing the Glassons demographic. Page 6 of that report you linked suggested exactly that, in as much as under 25's are still spending up. Consider this, that the average age of a Glassons consumer is only about 21 years old. Curiosity killed the cat. Just let the WHS thing go already...for goodness sake.
Quote from: Basil on Jun 02, 2023, 07:40 PMI think you've expressed your viewpoint in a very forthright manner on the other forum.
I would comment in response that the "scary" wage increases you're talking about that will affect Glassons staff are less than the rate of inflation in Australia, so I don't have any concerns there. Further, Glassons Au are very careful with their selection of new retail outlets and my understanding is they go through a very thorough due diligence process. James Glasson is a smart guy with a very smart mentor!
One thing you don't mention is that lease deals in a recession can often be signed on extremely advantageous terms and locked in with the usual review clauses. This obviously confers an advantage in better economic conditions as the lease reviews are based on the initial discounted contract price. Various other significant concessions can be obtained in harder economic times as I am sure you know already but for some reason didn't mention, whereas you were quick to mention the prospect of them overpaying for leases in better times.
Regarding the under 35 demographic group thing. I am not sure if you know this, but Glassons target market is 13-30 years and the substantial majority in that age group will still be living at home with their parents. Care needs to be taken when considering a group of under 35's as accurately representing the Glassons demographic. Page 6 of that report you linked suggested exactly that, in as much as under 25's are still spending up. Consider this, that the average age of a Glassons consumer is only about 21 years old. Curiosity killed the cat.
The wage increase is very likely in excess of Glassons AU pricing power...IE, the evidence is that apparel companies are not able to pass on rises in their input costs as is to maintain GP margins, and if you couple that with an inability to recover rises in fixed costs, you get a doubly whammy on profit margins. That's exactly what has transpired with the WHS...GP margins fell while overheads as a % of revenue increased. To keep margins % steady, HLG would have to be able to fully pass on input costs, and fully recover fixed prices. I am doubtful they will be able to do that in 2H and very doubtful they will be able to do that in FY24, and expect profit margins to decline.
Lease deals can be signed at good rates as you rightly say. But we are no where near the bottom of the cycle! Australia is very much well above the average of the cycle. It's only just come off peak volumes and earnings, and volumes per capita are no where remotely close to being even at an average of through the cycle let alone below the cycle (re my graph on sharetrader). And in both geographies, they are still at or very near record low unemployment rates. So I really hardly believe one can say (honestly) we are at a bottom of the cycle performance when from my perspective we aren't even close to being half way down let alone being at the bottom of the cycle.
Many 13-18 year olds year glassons, as you say, but their parents pay for it. guess what their parents have? mortgages. which are going up.
Still didn't answer my question....have you sold any HLG shares during the run up to the index inclusion or after?
Plenty of reasons to be curious about that.
The tragedy of retail is often that the stores opened in the peak of the cycle are often not viable through the cycle. Recently opened stores are signed at 'market' which reflect top of the market assumptions which can prove to be not viable, and the same store sales growth assumptions can prove to be utterly unachievable when run rates falter, and wages are sticky and can still rise even when the underlying run rate declines. Couple that with increased promotional and stock write off activity when the market turns, provides for a nasty impact on retailers which are ultimately quite operationally leveraged. Many will scramble to lay off headoffice, expensively exit leases, and cull staff. It's the normal retail cycle which will occur time and time again. EBIT margins are at their most expansive at the top of the cycle, and compress at a rate that surprises nearly all as they fall to the bottom.
Quote from: Basil on Jun 02, 2023, 07:40 PMRegarding the under 35 demographic group thing. I am not sure if you know this, but Glassons target market is 13-30 years and the substantial majority in that age group will still be living at home with their parents. Care needs to be taken when considering a group of under 35's as accurately representing the Glassons demographic.
As far as I can tell the best quality publicly available information around Glasson's demographics comes from Similarweb.
https://www.similarweb.com/website/glassons.com/#demographics
From that we see:
*30% between 18-24 years old
*33% between 25-24 years old
*15% between 35-44 years old
*11% between 45-54 years old
*7% between 55-64 years old
*4% above 65 years old
I know Glasson's demographic. And the data disproves that "the SUBSTANTIAL MAJORITY will still be living at home with their parents. And even if living with their parents, their parents overwhelmingly have mortgages, which is the group you had previously signaled out as the most at risk to rising rates (you can't have your cake & eat it too).
I don't think 2H FY23 will be a disaster and the full year FY23 result will look good positive given 1H performance and the residual but faltering strength in 2H. That said, I reckon the run rate will clearly show a deterioration in the 2H, FY24 will be difficult and it will carry through or worsen inFY25. Clearly you don't think the same so I'd love to know your factual basis for it.
You've seen my graph on apparel volumes relative to trend I'd love your perspective.
Given you've posted now on a different subject tonight and declined to answer my question, and together with history, I think it would be fair to question if you've sold down some of your shares into the index pop despite all your proclamations on what a fantastic long term dividend yield and growth stock it is. If that's not the case you should set the record straight and admit you got the stock index pop wrong (similar to the WHS when you advocated people
"BUY NOW before the closing match"). In my view it would be a terrible look for someone who had been promoting a stock and singing the dividend yield & growth potential to their large following only to have later & *inescapably* been found selling down into the pop at the same time. I recall you saying at the end of 2021 the WHS would be $5 by xmas and $7 by next year, and then a few weeks later you posted you had sold out at $4.11 during the interim period, so I think it's 100% fair and justifiable to ask.
I've said a few times lately that employee cost has been a worry the last few years
Up until 2020 I admired how they managed to keep a lid on total employee costs - in $ terms that flowed through to 'efficiencies' as measured by % sales
Since Jan 2020 the annual employee cost has risen by $18m or 34%
Sure sales have grown and there's been new stores and new distribution centres and all that but the increased employee cost does seem rather out of control
Latest increases in minimum rates will no doubt have an impact ...... unless HLG reduce head count I do see profits being impacted down the track ...... be interesting to see what H223 increase over pcp is and hope its not as bad as the 17% increase seen in H123
FM, I think you are being unfair in your criticism on a number of fronts.
1. The data from Similarweb may be factually correct based on the demographic classes of the purchasers however you only have to look at the Glassons catalogue to see that the clothing and the advertising is clearly targeted to young women, suggesting the 35% of purchasers above 35-y-o are probably buying for daughters or grand-daughters. Put another way, why would Glassons stock granny sizes!
2. Young people either living at home or flatting or renting don't give a monkeys about mum and dad's mortgage. What money young people have left over after expenses is spent on looking good, feeling good and hanging out with friends so looking good like the models in the catalogue is top priority among peers - and so it should be at their age. Not talking about deadbeat couch potatoes or drug users - Glassons target those go ahead young people who care what they look like.
3. Your comments on whether another poster has sold or not are unfair - DYOR is the rule - and by all means factor in someone else's opinion but don't blame them if the market moves and you haven't kept up.
Re WHS, I personnally was able to pick up on clearly signalled comments way back on the forum from several posters that WHS management was not executing well in regards to The Market as a very costly and almost inappropriate on-line platform that does no favours for their margins, that WHS was being being caned by KMart who had refurbished their stores and were cutting deep into the ground previously held by WHS, and meanwhile we still had WHS outlets looking tired, lax service levels, staff lay-offs etc. etc. - yes, I too exited WHS at around $4 and gee, look at what the market values WHS today.
So it ain't your business as to whether a poster has bought or sold a particular stock.
Sorry my point was for the young kids living at home (say the 10 to 15 year olds) their parents are likely the ones paying for the clothes, and those parents likely have mortgages. And I'd suspect your right that the oldest brackets in the similarweb demographic data are buying as gifts. None the less the demographic is young and that CBA report I linked to does give a quite a different take on relative strength in spending, particularly given rent, utilities, and food price inflation. Older spenders have probably still have accumulated savings left over from covid lockdowns would be my guess for why for the divergence.
One thing glassons does have going for it are products are dirt cheap. That gives them less margin to play with and customers may be sensitive to all the costs being passed on, but probably a better place to be than a youth fashion retailer of super expensive products (say kinda like Cue - a bit older, but just by way of example).
I just dispute that glassons is immune from a slowdown just because its customers are young.
Quote from: Fiordland Moose on Jun 03, 2023, 10:39 AMSorry my point was for the young kids living at home (say the 10 to 15 year olds) their parents are likely the ones paying for the clothes, and those parents likely have mortgages. And I'd suspect your right that the oldest brackets in the similarweb demographic data are buying as gifts. None the less the demographic is young and that CBA report I linked to does give a quite a different take on relative strength in spending, particularly given rent, utilities, and food price inflation. Older spenders have probably still have accumulated savings left over from covid lockdowns would be my guess for why for the divergence.
One thing glassons does have going for it are products are dirt cheap. That gives them less margin to play with and customers may be sensitive to all the costs being passed on, but probably a better place to be than a youth fashion retailer of super expensive products (say kinda like Cue - a bit older, but just by way of example).
I just dispute that glassons is immune from a slowdown just because its customers are young.
Good comments -and I do appreciate your insight.
yup this cycle is a big one but in 3 years time you will look back and realise with money flowed out 6 months ago from the markets but it will one day flow back..
Thats why some sectors of the market are a trade and some a hold, some accumulate.
Non farm payrolls in the US powered back..
This has been a great time to do R&D...
Quote from: Fiordland Moose on Jun 02, 2023, 09:46 PMIn my view it would be a terrible look for someone who had been promoting a stock and singing the dividend yield & growth potential to their large following only to have later & *inescapably* been found selling down into the pop at the same time.
To be fair, it was the obvious play. We all saw what happened before and after the power companies got added to a global ESG index. The illiquidity of the NZX kind of guarantees this outcome. If I had owned HLG shares I would have sold them after that run up, and then bought them back a few weeks later when they crash back to earth. A fundamental belief in the value of a company does not exclude executing a well timed short term trading move to take advantage of unusual market conditions.
Bonus points if you added to an outsized position before the index announcement :-)
The dancers and party people dont know there is a recession...
Teaching Turn from AUS...no one stops dancing for recessions... new shoes, new dresses, new jewels.... they just did not get the memo..
The Kangas wont stop kicking up their feet...
Heh Waltz, is that a selfie ;D
Quote from: KW on Jun 03, 2023, 12:23 PMTo be fair, it was the obvious play. We all saw what happened before and after the power companies got added to a global ESG index. The illiquidity of the NZX kind of guarantees this outcome. If I had owned HLG shares I would have sold them after that run up, and then bought them back a few weeks later when they crash back to earth. A fundamental belief in the value of a company does not exclude executing a well timed short term trading move to take advantage of unusual market conditions.
Bonus points if you added to an outsized position before the index announcement :-)
No question that this trading behaviour would make sense, and nothing wrong with it.
I think the discussion was not about a potential (and clearly sensible) trade pattern ... but questioning whether it would be ethical to ramp up a stock the ramper himself is selling at peak.
But I guess, first - we don't know whether this really happened (it was just an open question / unconfirmed assumption), and secondly if it did, we probably just need to accept that these forums are full of people with hidden agendas. Buying or selling shares (or anything else) based on the recommendation (or hype) created by another anonymous poster (no matter how Hero or Guru (s)he is is always a no-no.
Its a dangerous world out there ...
Quote from: Fiordland Moose on Jun 02, 2023, 09:46 PMAs far as I can tell the best quality publicly available information around Glasson's demographics comes from Similarweb.
https://www.similarweb.com/website/glassons.com/#demographics
From that we see:
*30% between 18-24 years old
*33% between 25-24 years old
*15% between 35-44 years old
*11% between 45-54 years old
*7% between 55-64 years old
*4% above 65 years old
I know Glasson's demographic. And the data disproves that "the SUBSTANTIAL MAJORITY will still be living at home with their parents. And even if living with their parents, their parents overwhelmingly have mortgages, which is the group you had previously signaled out as the most at risk to rising rates (you can't have your cake & eat it too).
I don't think 2H FY23 will be a disaster and the full year FY23 result will look good positive given 1H performance and the residual but faltering strength in 2H. That said, I reckon the run rate will clearly show a deterioration in the 2H, FY24 will be difficult and it will carry through or worsen inFY25. Clearly you don't think the same so I'd love to know your factual basis for it.
You've seen my graph on apparel volumes relative to trend I'd love your perspective.
Given you've posted now on a different subject tonight and declined to answer my question, and together with history, I think it would be fair to question if you've sold down some of your shares into the index pop despite all your proclamations on what a fantastic long term dividend yield and growth stock it is. If that's not the case you should set the record straight and admit you got the stock index pop wrong (similar to the WHS when you advocated people
"BUY NOW before the closing match"). In my view it would be a terrible look for someone who had been promoting a stock and singing the dividend yield & growth potential to their large following only to have later & *inescapably* been found selling down into the pop at the same time. I recall you saying at the end of 2021 the WHS would be $5 by xmas and $7 by next year, and then a few weeks later you posted you had sold out at $4.11 during the interim period, so I think it's 100% fair and justifiable to ask.
Pretty unfair slurring of others there FM. Beneath you. We're not children - we all make our own decisions to buy and sell. This forum is for others to share their knowledge and predictions but - do I have to say this? - every needs to do their own research as well. Something that a lot of experienced investors have been at pains to point out again and again.
I bought into HLG prior to index inclusion - which I wasn't aware of until Basil/Winner pointed out the likelihood. Retail isn't my thing but the metrics also looked good - particularly in OZ. I bought in, was glad I did, thanked Basil and Winner in the process, and a few days after inclusion came to pass I decided to sell down half, and take the profits. The other half are still in play because I think HLG have proved to be a very resilient company (look at thir performance over Covid!) and the yield is very good.
If others who were enthusiastic about HLG prior to inclusion have done the same I see no problem with that all. Why should that be a problem for you? Selling down during a "pop" but still liking the company enough to come back in later is a smart play - they are not mutually exclusive you know.
While I'm at it - I see the slagging off on the other forum regarding WHS. Again this is perplexing and typical of the feuding that drove me away from that forum (that and being banned...). So let's get this straight. A certain someone - let's call him Beagle - was enthusiastic about WHS and bought in based on their research and, along with others, opined that the share might reach $5 or more soon. Then the annual report came out which showed increased operating costs, narrowing margins and - crucially - cash flow drying up. That certain someone read the report, didn't like the look of it and sold out at a good price. Again - why is that a problem for you? The only constant in investing is change. THat's why I am on NZX at 8.30 sharp each morning to read reports and announcements. If Beagle got his finger on the sell now button whilst others were still having their breakfast then good on him. I see no underhandedness at all. And neither should you.
The trust I am a trustee of holds HLG .We are long term holders,neither traders nor momentum investors.Divies plus modest growth suits best our objectives.
I thought the trust may sell if the share price hit between $7.30 and $7.50.
That did not happen.
Had also thought of selling HLG and recycling the funds into NZA,whose share price I feel will double in the next year to 18 months, when they reintroduce good divies ,however a $14 mil market cap company may not be quiet suitable for the trust.
In the meantime HLG remains in the trust's portfolio along side some LOV.[free ones]
well Whome ... if i was as good as this amazing person id be doing the teaching ... you can teach whats in a book but the good stuff they hand down to each other. Its almost a secret society...
But the point is that people under a certain age are busy living.
One tall PHD dancer i know did not even know there had been a thing called the GFC as she was teaching at UNI...
LL I thought it fair to ask if he sold some given the volume of posts made in the long run up including numerous v. high price targets (well above spot and eventual peak - why sell if below target?), how it was such a good hold ('most comfortable 10 year hold'), best yielder on NZX, saying back in May wouldn't sell for below 10 bucks if a takeover offer was made, the huge growth ahead of it, etc. So yeah I was curious if he still held all his shares after making all those statements, and I obviously don't know or have a view on if he did either way. Goes without saying a disclosure is his prerogative alone. but on reflection I could have asked the question without being as snarky as I was so that's my bad (will work on that).
normal broadcast operations can now recommence.
Quote from: Fiordland Moose on Jun 03, 2023, 05:13 PMLL I thought it fair to ask if he sold some given the volume of posts made in the long run up including numerous v. high price targets (well above spot and eventual peak - why sell if below target?), how it was such a good hold ('most comfortable 10 year hold'), best yielder on NZX, saying back in May wouldn't sell for below 10 bucks if a takeover offer was made, the huge growth ahead of it, etc. So yeah I was curious if he still held all his shares after making all those statements, and I obviously don't know or have a view on if he did either way. Goes without saying a disclosure is his prerogative alone. but on reflection I could have asked the question without being as snarky as I was so that's my bad (will work on that).
normal broadcast operations can now recommence.
Classy mea culpa Mr Moose - kudos
Quote from: Fiordland Moose on Jun 03, 2023, 05:13 PMLL I thought it fair to ask if he sold some given the volume of posts made in the long run up including numerous v. high price targets (well above spot and eventual peak - why sell if below target?), how it was such a good hold ('most comfortable 10 year hold'), best yielder on NZX, saying back in May wouldn't sell for below 10 bucks if a takeover offer was made, the huge growth ahead of it, etc. So yeah I was curious if he still held all his shares after making all those statements, and I obviously don't know or have a view on if he did either way. Goes without saying a disclosure is his prerogative alone. but on reflection I could have asked the question without being as snarky as I was so that's my bad (will work on that).
normal broadcast operations can now recommence.
Fair enough FM. And it goes without saying that I appreciate and value your insights. They will, in time, be part of the insights of an AI generated guru, if he/she/they don't already exist ;)
Okay it's time for me to weigh-in on this.
Congrats LoungeLizard, I'm really pleased you and many others have done really well out of this.
Thanks to Whome and KW too for your excellent posts.
The facts are in a flat lifeless market HLG is up 25-30% inclusive of December and April dividends since I backed up the truck into a heavily overweight position in October-November 2022 and for those that chose to sell some on index inclusion and who brought at about $5.10 late last year like I did, they're up 44% inclusive of dividends on what they sold at $6.85.
Aside from monetary gain, I got a lot of pleasure out of this as it genuinely gives me a kick to see others also getting outsized returns in this lifeless market. I correctly picked HLG index inclusion as the cherry on top of what is undoubtedly a high-quality company and that lead to returns that have vastly outstripped the market.
Its a very, very strange person indeed that wants to try and make something dark and sinister out of this.
Bringing up the WHS yet again for what is this, the seventh or eighth time?, WOW, just WOW. it's hard to have any respect remaining for such a person despite their sometimes quite obvious intelligence displayed, albeit periodically. That so called apology doesn't cut the mustard, not anywhere close.
Bizarre why someone would carry a grudge when I so clearly called the top for the WHS at the time and thoroughly articulated the reasons why with several very fulsome posts. Anyone who followed me out saved themselves a ~ 60% destruction of their capital. Gosh, you'd be forgiven for thinking I got the call 60% or even more around the wrong way. Welcome to the real world FM when, especially during Covid, the fair value of a company can change substantially in a very short space of time.
Couple of insightful little things I will say on the subject of unusual human psychological behavior. My niece is a top psychologist. Take notes FM.
Vince once told me this. Not everyone is going to like you on a public forum. Its crystal clear you don't like me so you go looking for anything to grind that axe of yours's on. BFF's on Turners,, someone hand me a Tui... Please get over your obsessive stalking of my investment strategies for the sake of all others on this forum. I get it you don't like my posting style, we all get that. Please put me on ignore if what or the way I post grinds your gears too much.
Mrs Beagle has her own unique cliche to explain why some people continue to take exception to things you do without any good reason. If someone really doesn't like you for whatever reason, even the way you stir your coffee cup will annoy them.
It goes without saying I am under no obligation whatsoever to anyone to provide more fulsome details of my strategy. I've chosen to share more with some of my friends and that's entirely my prerogative as to who I choose to share that information with.
It's extremely disappointing that anyone would try and make returns that have been so good for so many people over recent months with HLG into
something dark and sinister. That's all I have to say and I won't allow anyone with a sick attitude to drag me down their level with further debate.
Disc: I remain with a sizeable stake in HLG as I believe its a very high-quality company that will perform very well over the long run.
Those who think they can accurately predict the impact on HLG in the short run with the headwinds readily apparent., have far too much hubris for their own good in my opinion.
Quote from: Fiordland Moose on Jun 03, 2023, 05:13 PMnormal broadcast operations can now recommence.
Actually its a fairly good learning opportunity. If you've been hanging around the market long enough you kind of know when price pops are unsustainable. They are usually the result of people rushing to buy stock based on a rumour, news article, or other information not related to a change in the company's trading conditions or internal financials. These moments are available to be exploited, regardless of how one views the future potential of the company. Index inclusion is one of those things, its a brief liquidity event, and once its over normal transmission will resume.
In other words, being added to the index did not make HLG worth $6.94 even if you honestly believed that its future growth and financials will one day make it worth that price. So if you sold part or all of your position, and either bought it back at a cheaper price later, or decided to recycle the gains into another stock that then has greater immediate potential for share price growth, then thats being a successful investor. Even if HLG had remained at $6.94 a share, that would likely mean that it was fully valued and wouldnt go anywhere much for the rest of the year (or longer) and the risk of it dropping back to $5.83 in a retest of its support level was always on the cards and a high probability. Telling people that HLG is worth $7 does not change the fact that once it gets there, that then begs the question - is there better opportunities to deploy that capital elsewhere once something is fully valued? Even on a yield play, the yield at $7 might now be less than something else you could buy for the same money, so even income investors might look to rotate out.
And you may choose to sell just to adjust your position sizing if you are now holding what you feel to be an uncomfortable proportion of a single stock. Portfolio rebalancing after large price moves is something virtually all professional investors do. (Athough they usually do it after the wrong type of price moves (ie. proper breakouts) and end up selling too early LOL)
The big lesson to learn though is that you need to set your position well ahead of the index inclusion announcement date (in this case May 3) as by then most of the big moves will have been made ;D
But I'll summarise with the classic "Buy the Rumour, Sell the News". Its a classic for a reason.
Anyone who loaded up back at 4 something is well within there rights to sell ALL or part it at the increase in VOL...
In fact if you LOADED up in this tradionally low VOL stock and did not take advantage of the increase VOL your crazy...
This is a market not a court room.
Traditionally this stock can only handle a low VOL load...
Trading bundling from about 3000 to 10000
With good news about 30000 to 50000
If you loaded above that you wont be able to move them without discounting them.
Looks like a good trade for a while.
Quote from: Waltzing on Jun 03, 2023, 07:50 PMAnyone who loaded up back at 4 something is well within there rights to sell ALL or part it at the increase in VOL...
In fact if you LOADED up in this tradionally low VOL stock and did not take advantage of the increase VOL your crazy...
This is a market not a court room.
Another excellent point. If you were wanting to resize your portfolio you need to seize liquidity events such as this to get a clean exit. Otherwise, the low liquidity in NZX stocks forces a wide spread, and any large investor looking to move a block of stock is forced to take a hit on price. I avoid illiquid stocks on the ASX for the same reason, while you can get in slowly, its impossible to get out fast, they become "lobster traps".
If the INSTOS if that who was buying paid over 6.50 there were some big off market trades , correct me if not so things are busy in the world AT THE MO..
They are stuck wth those positions and are now in the RED...
Those who read posts here about yield and possible inclusions of the index could take that inforamtion and trade on it if they wished..
Those IINSTOS are now stuffed but you were all smarter and are not in the RED like they are...
Well done to you retaill investors and Investors here who run private companies registered as professionals.
The 602 day rolling average looks to be about... maybe exactly 6.31
the chart looks like a possible 5.20 coming up if numbers are flat on the next update and 4.80 if retracement of EBIT 'S ....
S = and sundry...
Those cost variance models need to be put into interactive code later... got it covered... then put the retailers through the models...
we got a big model coming for the on market daily pricing...
then i suppose you all want the app free of charge on line for you all to play with...
well not sure we have the time for that but you never know..
RetailWatch report clothing/footwear sales in NZ for May down 7.6% on last year
HLG NZ sales tend to track this data quite well
Winner() please no data till 2025.... and then only AUS data...
Its a trade...
Heads up, the charts of prime retailers in Australia are looking really sick. The lovely uptrends they had been in are now well and truly broken. Clearly the market has suddenly decided that an Australian recession is on the cards after all.
Quote from: Waltzing on Jun 07, 2023, 11:25 AMThose cost variance models need to be put into interactive code later... got it covered... then put the retailers through the models...
we got a big model coming for the on market daily pricing...
then i suppose you all want the app free of charge on line for you all to play with...
Do tell Waltzing. I am curious to hear more about this. Is this your own project? What language / platform? And are you also working on a system to directly import and interpret pdf versions of annual & HY accounts?
Moved to Off Topic Subject :
General News.
Technology and Financial Reporting.
QuoteWon't hear anything from HLG until August when they will tell us what full year sales and profit have been been .... and the share price is just in a holding pattern at the moment
When they say sales have continued to be pretty strong and profit is about $40m I reckon the share price will head over $7
Come end of September when they confirm that guidance and say the start of the F24 year has been ahead of pcp and announce a 28 cent final divie the share price might even get to $8 in October/November .... and still be relatively cheap
That's how I see things playing out
Sssshhh Winner, let all the naysayers think sales are going to fall off a cliff....maybe it will get back down to $5.10 again, (hang on a minute wasn't this supposed to have done a perfect bell curve after index inclusion and be back there already according to some armchair "expert" critics?), and we can back the truck up even more before they wake up and smell the coffee ;D
Anyway...its still up more than 10% since index inclusion which is about average in my experience so all those who predicted an almost immediate return to pre index inclusion pricing have been proven wrong so far. Early days though so we'll see...
Oh yes please... that would be wonderful!!!
Quote from: Basil on Jun 13, 2023, 05:23 PMSssshhh Winner, let all the naysayers think sales are going to fall off a cliff....maybe it will get back down to $5.10 again, (hang on a minute wasn't this supposed to have done a perfect bell curve after index inclusion and be back there already according to some armchair "expert" critics?), and we can back the truck up even more before they wake up and smell the coffee ;D
Anyway...its still up more than 10% since index inclusion which is about average in my experience so all those who predicted an almost immediate return to pre index inclusion pricing have been proven wrong so far. Early days though so we'll see...
You and I are at a similar age and point in our lives with investing, on the low glide to retirement and fortunate enough to be looking at acquiring a long term income portfolio.
Can you help me understand why you're so interested in the share price - after having made the decision to purchase a balanced portfolio percentage and settled in to enjoy long term (hopefully) income? I'm only interested in the SP where I'm still taking the DRP. Maybe I've missed the point?
Does it mean that despite your ambitions for long term income and keen nose for buying at low SP's, would you perhaps assess whether a holding had achieved a capital growth exceeding an 'x' number of years of earnings, and sell to take the money now rather than wait for it?
I'd be afraid that could be construed as trade and incur capital gains tax, and I'm uncomfortable about the buy-sell brokerage fees impact as well.
Interested in your thoughts transitioning from a momentum investor to a long term income investor, especially with these high income and high SP volatility company's. We're in a similar place.
Would like more if it gets back, close to $5. Hindsight a beautiful thing. Was very cheap there.
The stock suffered from a rare as yet undiagnosed form of Schadenfreude.
It keeps selling off like a scared alley cat chasing its own shadow and the market cant make it mind up on the SP and therefore just when you think it going up retail cyclical Schadenfreude turns up and the markets runs away.
MR B probably thinks the stock is worth far more than the P/E it has but the market does not and therefore one says we want to hold be lets sell anyway and take the profits before the market does the Schadenfreude two step.
News like this out of Australia about plummeting sales at retailers like David Jones are going to continue to dampen sentiment towards HLG.
https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/retail/david-jones-records-major-downturn-amid-rba-hikes/news-story/642ba05f12016c2ef0c4ea5d34ec847d
Never mind the fact that HLG operates in a different space imo from the likes of David Jones.
The index inclusion was a good time to lighten up with a view to reset at lower levels.
HLG ! HLG! HLG!
Thats 3 cheers for HLG!!!
Oh thats right we are hoping for 5 dollars ...
Erase that....
609....
WHO DID THAT!!!!
Are the Instos now going to try and Average down ...
It was index rebalancing day late this afternoon Waltz.
Well il BE!!
Some of us are actually working and LIFTING as KW calls it!!!
No sell off Yet.... even MHJ kept its trouser up...
Hundreds of thousands off to Taylor Swift next February
Probably high percentage are in Glassons target market
Got to look cool going to see Taylor
Boom times ahead for Glassons I reckon
Right well lets hope this coming QTR reports from AUS arnt as dire as predicted for here...
This well-bred doggy doesn't seem to want to lie down in the low $5's again.
We need repeated baying, like in the video below that the end of the world for retail is imminent, maybe that will make a difference?
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=what+sounds+do+moose+make&view=detail&mid=D21E919CE25F9228279CD21E919CE25F9228279C&FORM=VIRE
Quote from: Basil on Jul 03, 2023, 03:19 PMThis well-bred doggy doesn't seem to want to lie down in the low $5's again.
We need repeated baying, like in the video below that the end of the world for retail is imminent, maybe that will make a difference?
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=what+sounds+do+moose+make&view=detail&mid=D21E919CE25F9228279CD21E919CE25F9228279C&FORM=VIRE
Nice.
I recall you saying I was a doom monger for my views on the WHS when you were busy ramping it at $3.30-3.50. Look where it is now.
NZ listed retail stocks like WHS and HLG tend to react to after the fact information, not in advance of it, like Aussie listed stocks, which I've spoken too.
I've said my piece re my views on how and when AU trading updates will flow through to SP's so need to repeat. And it'll be there to revisit in the future.
Keep up the ramping if it makes you feel better. This moose is off to somewhere warm.
Beagle barked loudly at the top of the WHS ladder when selling out to Nick at $4.11...you'd have to have had selective hearing not to have heard that barking :P
I'm not afraid to admit I have no idea which way the HLG share price will go in the short term....was hoping you'd beat it down a bit for me lol We'll see if / how it reacts after the 2H sales update next month which I suspect will be stronger than you believe the case to be.
UNI share price rocketing up today ...even HVN and LOV going well
Probably a reaction in front of good news ......things aren't as bleak as first thought and good winter sales going to be reported
Quote from: Basil on Jul 03, 2023, 04:08 PMBeagle barked loudly at the top of the WHS ladder when selling out to Nick at $4.11...you'd have to have had selective hearing not to have heard that barking :P
I'm not afraid to admit I have no idea which way the HLG share price will go in the short term....was hoping you'd beat it down a bit for me lol We'll see if / how it reacts after the 2H sales update next month which I suspect will be stronger than you believe the case to be.
Absolute rubbish.
I am referring to when you bought back in and were suddenly directly contradicting previous statements you made, now saying Noel Leeming and TP7 were counter cyclical consumer staples (previously "just a cyclical") and what amazing buying it was at 3.30. I disputed that NL and TP7 were consumer staples and expressed my view that the WHS was in a precarious position - you called me a doom monger (for the first time). I wasn't a doom monger, and the SP halved.
I have all the posts and chronology if you'd like to continue the falsehoods. This was only in 2022, happy to provide them if your memory has faded.
And i dont think I'm a doom monger now. Indeed, the things I've been saying around aussie retail are now many months later now being seen in the guidance updates and in the financial press.
I dont think 2H F23 is going to be bad, as alluded to in on of my previous posts that spoke to the trading environment deteoriating the 2nd to last week of May.
But likewise I dont think it'll be as flash as you think and 1H FY24 (and indeed fy24 and into fy25) will show huge falls in EPS.
And so what if it does - if you like the company at 7.50 - you should love it if it trades for a lot less.
Amazing how you think you can project into FY24 and FY25 as well.
Basil you look at a wide subset of real estate information which you post on extremely extensively on & how that informs your perspective on the headwinds that sector has had and your view on how it may continue and evolve (& a lot of that has been good stuff some of which I have concured with, if not how its been said). I'm just interpreting what I am hearing and seeing and providing an opinion on how that could impact trading over the next few years. Not much different.
And yes I think its wise to look for factors that could impact earnings beyond a current year, particularly if there are strong signs the current year may not be maintainable.
well RBA is out tomorrow with its policy statements and its hike or no hike...
This policy statement from the RBA is probably worth reading more than old posts....
Interesting comments on CNBC recently (Winners FAV Hate speech program)... outlining the amount of corporate re FINANCING in corporate bonds and the effect it may have on the future earning of the SP 500...
Same goes for AUS in that the numbers may effect over all ASX 200 SP's going forward.
Glassons is a young cool and affordable brand and has a huge runway of growth ahead of it in Australia in the decades ahead. James Glasson is doing a fabulous job of growing the brand in a well thought out, steady and conservative way. Market penetration in terms of retail footprint is only one sixth in Australia of what it is here. Headwinds from shipping costs will be abating. It won't surprise me to see significant rationalization of the retail footprint in N.Z. in the years ahead by the new incoming CEO. I note their average lease term is only 4 years.
FM has made the valid point that apparel sales as a group have been tracking well ahead of norm.
My contention is that affordable, young cool brands with genuine brand power garnered through astute marketing on social media platforms aimed at the younger demographic will hold up a lot better than apparel as a general class. There have been studies which have suggested young people's mental health was more affected by lockdowns and other Covid measures than other demographic groups. I think this fuels a sustained spend on peacocking activities for several years. Research I have seen shows it takes as long as the trauma itself endures, (3 years of Covid) to get over it.
I don't pretend to think I have any special insights into FY24 or FY25 earnings, but I do think there were incredible headwinds in FY22 and its more likely than not that was trough year earnings at 43 cps. If we go back close to that level of earnings in FY24 or FY25, (that's my base case and I suspect it will be better), HLG trades on about 14 times trough year earnings. I think $6 is good value with Glassons proven growth in Australia and huge potential on that basis but I confess in the near term I have no idea whatsoever which way the share price will go. Once we get a sales update for IH FY24 in December 2023, I might possibly make some estimate of FY24 earnings.
There is a change in weather patterns also right ... https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html
.. more sun next year? and with this more tourism; more people going out and dam the wallet....
That summer wasnt long enough !!!
"Summer wasn't long enough".
Rain gauge that Metservice has in the Waitakere's to the west of us was reported at the weekend to have reached its highest reading in the first half of this year since records began for the same comparative period 120 years ago. Right off the charts or words to that effect is what was said. I gathered from that if records began several hundred years ago, the first half of 2023 would likely still be an all time record.
At 22.5% off ATH and 12.5% off the recent spike on NZX50 inclusion, it looks like the market doesn't agree and that this would be a risky time for capital sensitive investors to enter, or hold, except if they weren't capital sensitive and held purely for dividend returns, prepared for any eventuality with the SP movements.
Speaking of dividends I think one thing that's holding HLG back is that dividends are now only partially imputed. Okay we got 48 cents in total in December and April but imputation credits of only 5 cps so there was a lot of tax to pay on that and the net dividend was quite a bit less than one recent year we got dividends of mid 40 cents for the year that were fully imputed. I think at one point they might have got a bit ahead of their ski's with paying out imputation credits hence there were none with the December 2022 divvy.
Looking at Dec 2023 and April 2024's dividend it's too hard to make the call on what they might be and the extent of imputation credits if any but based on the last 2 divvies which inclusive of imputation credits were 53 cps at $6 HLG trades on a gross yield of 8.8%. In trough year periods in the past they haven;t been afraid of paying out 100% of earnings which suggests to me Tim Glasson likes his dividends.
P.S. Gross yield is one thing but when investing for income consider how you think dividends will grow over the long run.
There were some flat SP periods but that was before AUS expansion. AUS GDP flat for next 3 or 4 years.
They wont be reducing the DIV unless they have to. History of paying out is HUGE.
May be 580 again and stays there flat..
here we go ... CNBC chatter is a HIKE.. .25
https://www.rba.gov.au/
AUS on Rate HOLD!!! one more to come in August data dependent... well see...
The new CEO is from Kathmandu?
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/KMD/414400/398129.pdf
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/414402/398128.pdf
He gets my tick PWC only hired the best and brightest.
Quote from: Basil on Jul 07, 2023, 09:37 AMhttp://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/414402/398128.pdf
He gets my tick PWC only hired the best and brightest.
Especially their Ozzie tax team
Quote from: Crackity on Jul 07, 2023, 09:49 AMEspecially their Ozzie tax team
LOL, Yeah, I know one of the PWC N.Z. team partners and I dare not touch on that subject. I think there's some backwash effect on their reputation here too.
Quote from: Basil on Jul 07, 2023, 09:37 AMhttp://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/414402/398128.pdf
He gets my tick PWC only hired the best and brightest.
But an accountant running a fashion house?
What next?
Interesting insight from month of June sales data in Retail Watch
NZ clothing sector sales down 2.4% on June last year
Interesting that in-store sales were up 1% but on-line sales were down 15%
On-line made up ~19% of total sales
Just interesting stuff .....HLG in NZ bound to be chugging along in +ve territory
Quote from: winner (n) on Jul 08, 2023, 10:46 AMBut an accountant running a fashion house?
What next?
Let's be honest. HLG's N.Z. operations need a disciplined numbers man to turn around their pretty woeful performance. If James Glasson can make the big bucks in Australia with Glassons, the model here needs change. I want to see improvement here and a much-improved level of imputation credits going forward.
Quote from: Basil on Jul 08, 2023, 11:44 AMLet's be honest. HLG's N.Z. operations need a disciplined numbers man to turn around their pretty woeful performance. If James Glasson can make the big bucks in Australia with Glassons, the model here needs change. I want to see improvement here and a much-improved level of imputation credits going forward.
NZ businesses are mature / unexciting or whatever like description you want to use ...almost beyond redemption
Sales over the years just keep pace with sector sales ......they have about 5% share of a slow growing sector at best....no share gains here....even though they do a lot of good things in an effort to make the offers more exciting.
Saying they need a disciplined numbers man to turn it around is almost tantamount to calling in the receivers ...well not quite but accountants aren't renowned for adding vibrancy to a retail fashion business are they?
As long NZ businesses plod along and don't let profits slide too much theGroup will likely continue to do well.
Pretty sure they have a fairly talented purchasing team making the fashion buying decisions.
In total the N.Z. operations have nearly twice as many stores as Australia and yet its only contributing less than a one third of group profit. Hmmm
For what's it worth Tony Alexander's spending survey reports that a net 25% of respondents say they going to spend less on clothing and footwear
Net 25% = More % minus Less % ......could be something like 63% going to buy Less and 37% goingbto buy more ...but then I think one can answer the same so no doubt some maths behind the net 25%
Doubt whether this indicates much as to HLG prospects ......peacockers are unlikely to participate in such surveys eh.
HLG 60 % off sales ... in the central WakaToo today...
Bargains galore....
its now a race to keep those feet coming to the stores...
come back in 2025? any news going to be pretty boring?
For what its worth, today I have lowered my earnings estimate for the second half of FY23.
There is now a substantial body of peer group market evidence that the slowdown in consumer spending is hurting the retail sector and notwithstanding HLG being positioned at the value end of the apparel spectrum its harder to see how they're not materially impacted as well.
I have lowered my expectations for the second half of FY23 estimate from 25-27 cents to 20 cents giving full year earnings of 55 cps.
My confidence in the long-term growth story of Glassons Au is undiminished.
I have no opinion on which direction the share price will go in the short term.
Quote from: Basil on Jul 12, 2023, 11:02 AMFor what its worth, today I have lowered my earnings estimate for the second half of FY23.
There is now a substantial body of peer group market evidence that the slowdown in consumer spending is hurting the retail sector and notwithstanding HLG being positioned at the value end of the apparel spectrum its harder to see how they're not materially impacted as well.
I have lowered my expectations for the second half of FY23 estimate from 25-27 cents to 20 cents giving full year earnings of 55 cps.
My confidence in the long-term growth story of Glassons Au is undiminished.
I have no opinion on which direction the share price will go in the short term.
Yes, it looks that way doesn't it. HLG are a very well run company but they are not immune to the consumer spending downturn that is hitting everyone else (like KMD). They will probably hold or expand market share in OZ, but margins might be under pressure to do so. However HLG have shown great resilience in the past to get through tough times, and I expect them to do the same again, whilst still paying a good dividend. The SP in the short term is, as you say, anyone's guess, but there's very few sellers at the moment. I'd be happy enough with a 20c dividend to tide me over ;)
In the short term hoping for a 5 dollar or 4.50 if you pastel in across the bottom....
ave from the point in time the AUS earnings kicked in... when was that?
does anyone think that NZ will rebound with a trade surplus not the worst since 1975?
maybe winner will tell us the trade deficit doesnt matter but it does!!! it means debt is increasing!!!!
The business is still well run (long term positive) but it is caught up in the wider economic issues (as businesses do).
https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/clothes-home-goods-slip-down-the-list-as-shoppers-spend-on-essentials-20230711-p5dndu.html
Jeez Basil ...that's some earnings downgrade
H2 profits less than last year? But then $33m isn't too bad eh
Yes waiting for the final numbers and we can build on the models...
Now that China has rejoined the world, the Chinese companies will also be picking up market share again. They had been largely absent over the past few years due to long shipping times, and unreliable delivery. So Shein and Temu will be targeting that low end of the market.
Anecdotally I went into KMart yesterday, it was the quietest I've ever seen it in there. Stock was still neatly folded on the shelves. I didnt even have to queue for a self checkout machine. Things must be bad.
Quote from: KW on Jul 12, 2023, 02:11 PMAnecdotally I went into KMart yesterday, it was the quietest I've ever seen it in there. Stock was still neatly folded on the shelves. I didnt even have to queue for a self checkout machine. Things must be bad.
Nein. 'Bad' is vhen the self checkout machines themselves go out on ztrike.
RB
Yikes Have Glassons got enough Barbie pink in stock!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZyhrYis509A
Go Tonya ....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oxheEETnkT0
Imagine the effect on the share price if they could somehow get Margot Robbie to model their clothes and be a brand ambassador. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertainment/margot-robbie-stuns-with-most-dramatic-barbie-look-yet-at-london-premiere/HAA4SNNV4NCYHH4QEC7WOFFC3A/ Don't think that was a cheap outfit on sale at Glassons LOL
She's Australian, Glassons is sort of Australian. Let's do this, anyone got Margot's phone number LOL
Pink is in according to kiwi/Aussi fashion designer...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mW1dbiD_zDk
Quote from: Waltzing on Jul 13, 2023, 01:51 PMPink is in according to kiwi/Aussi fashion designer...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mW1dbiD_zDk
Quote from: Waltzing on Jul 13, 2023, 01:51 PMPink is in according to kiwi/Aussi fashion designer...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mW1dbiD_zDk
Need to find my pink shirts then ...haven't worn them for ages
Just when one thinks it all going to be boring Margo flings open the wardrobe and out comes a whole new line of fashion flash backs !!!
Gosh that would be ripping the nighties of the woke feminist and maybe its back to the flares next?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fT42ocqmI9s
High collars!!!! anyone got the LP?
HLG - will need some Barbie models on this years Financials - Mattel partners with 100 brands and who knows Barbie beach towels could be next!!!
Quote from: Waltzing on Jul 14, 2023, 08:54 AMHLG - will need some Barbie models on this years Financials - Mattel partners with 100 brands and who knows Barbie beach towels could be next!!!
Didn't they run out of pink dye in preparing the movie? Maybe we need to investigate which companies produce pink colour and invest into these?
Quote from: BlackPeter on Jul 14, 2023, 09:06 AMDidn't they run out of pink die in preparing the movie? Maybe we need to investigate which companies produce pink colour and invest into these?
I'm pretty sure the global shortage in pink dye arose after Synlait printed its annual report...
Are we seeing the start of Tax free tourist shopping ??
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/07/14/burberry-suggests-wealthy-tourists-should-be-paid-to-shop/
the real question could be does glasson have enough pink in stock!!!!
apparently this new barbie craze could set this summer beach trends? barbie towels and blow ups?
Need some bad news here soon... its in the pink...
Quote from: Waltzing on Jul 18, 2023, 05:33 PMNeed some bad news here soon... its in the pink...
Could be testing 7 bucks soon the way its going
Amazing ....what are those kanga shoppers thinking... is this a bet on barbie swim suites for summer?
Is MR B buying again... NOooooo...cant be
blitzing it .... bit of a pull back...
and notice the drop of in interest of the retail investor community on the forums lately...
The poor performance of the NZ economy including trade deficit will have blunted the investor Appetite...
and where are the big retail investors on this Stock...
Quote from: Waltzing on Jul 21, 2023, 11:54 AMblitzing it .... bit of a pull back...
and notice the drop of in interest of the retail investor community on the forums lately...
The poor performance of the NZ economy including trade deficit will have blunted the investor Appetite...
and where are the big retail investors on this Stock...
But the paper yesterday said Mum and dad investors were coming back into the market
The bottom in then Winner()
and where is MR B...
Yes, where is Mr B? Those of us who followed his lead are basking in his reflected glory. ;D
Maybe some aussie outfit interested in HLG
I better check into the AFR more regularly
waiting for the reports........ then see if HLG hit like MHJ... bottom might be in for retail winner()...
we have made big developments in meta document processing lately and cant wait to let software learn the reports and start building big reporting stats models this summer.....
big data coming ... hopefully no more reading reports...
Tut tut, naughty HLG - public censure
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/415694/399621.pdf
Might as well delist in NZ and go ASX... NZX needed the money....
Winner() how the new document reader works answered in the General news..
FB have started full coverage and have come up with $5.60 as TP. Underperform.
The market appears to be pricing a minimal decline in earnings and we believe risk return is skewed to the downside.
Update probably next week.
F23 will be pretty good
Looking ahead Sharon at ANZ said this today -
ANZ card spending data shows spending across the board losing momentum, with more discretionary items such as clothing under particular pressure.
See if IXXXXxxxxx moves to QU EEEEE eeeee... ran out of breath... opera singers carry the voice from the lower abdomen...
not practised... but that low hum is the fat lady warning up in wellington before the sept opening of the books?
could be a pretty demur summer then.....
That will hit Kangas as well if the property market in shangri la goes you know what ....
shaping up to be the perfect storm then..... horizon looks dark out in the gulf as those cruisers head back to port... bunkering going up in cost daily...
Return to October lows, maybe beyond.
HLG_2023-08-18_15-17-27.png
Have to reluctantly agree, a return to last year's support area in the low $5's is now looking more likely. TA looks pretty discouraging.
what was the highest DIV percentage they have ever paid... more then 13?
what if the DIV isnt cut much but market sells off on global market trama...
what a nice buy it will be ... waiting... close some NZ stores would be a good idea?
Numbers out ...much in line withbBasil's downgraded numbers
The Company advises that Group sales for the 12 months ended 1 August 2023 were $409.71 million, an increase of 16.7% on the prior year ($351.21 million).
Group net profit after tax is expected to be within the range of $31.8 million to $32.3 million, an increase of approximately +25.2% on the prior year ($25.6 million). The results of the prior corresponding period included multiple store closures across Australia and New Zealand due to lockdowns for much of the first three months of the prior year.
The balance sheet for the Group remains strong and stock levels continue to be well controlled.
Suppose we now move on to guessing F24 numbers
Not before putting the numbers in to the Variance model we wont and we will see clearly where the Variances HIDE...
However today is a testing day for Carbon Fibre...
$32 million in earnings for FY32. Still growing with minimum capital need. That put them on 11 pe. and they have more than one year of earnings in cash... Pretty fair valuation for a great company I think.
Quote from: winner (n) on Aug 25, 2023, 09:48 AMNumbers out ...much in line withbBasil's downgraded numbers
The Company advises that Group sales for the 12 months ended 1 August 2023 were $409.71 million, an increase of 16.7% on the prior year ($351.21 million).
Group net profit after tax is expected to be within the range of $31.8 million to $32.3 million, an increase of approximately +25.2% on the prior year ($25.6 million). The results of the prior corresponding period included multiple store closures across Australia and New Zealand due to lockdowns for much of the first three months of the prior year.
The balance sheet for the Group remains strong and stock levels continue to be well controlled.
Suppose we now move on to guessing F24 numbers
Mid point of guidance is $32.05m giving an indication of eps being 53.7 cps, my revised estimate was 55 cps so a little lower than my estimate and a 1H / 2H split of 35 cps / 18.7 cps.
In terms of the guessing games for FY24's outlook I offer up this insight.
Recent evidence of performance is almost always the best indicator for the future.
2H eps represent just 34.8% of HLG's FY23 profit. The previous lowest contribution in 2H in the last 5 years was 40% so this does support the contention there has been a fundamental shift in consumer behavior as well as ever increasing cost pressures.
In terms of the outlook for yield, another thing that's become crystal clear in the last year as they emptied their imputation credit account, is they are very unlikely to offer full imputation credits with dividends again in the foreseeable future. In fact, I would go further and suggest the best guide we currently have as to the imputation level is what we saw in the last year with only 5 cents of imputation credits attached to the 48 cents of dividends.
Preliminary thoughts.
Maybe recent earnings of 18.7 cps is where this settles in the current consumer downturn and if so, maybe that's a more normal 1H / 2H 55/45 split in FY24 so maybe they can earn 55/45 of that in 1H FY24 = maybe 23 cps in first half and 19 cps 2H for 42 cps earnings in FY24, about $25m net profit?
Looking at this from a dividend hounds perspective maybe they can pay 40 cps in FY24 or maybe not and with say 5 cps of imputation credits as per FY23 that's 45 cps gross / $5.90 = 7.63% gross yield. Is that okay in a trough year or not, is for others to decide for themselves.
Longer term, Glassons Au growth will shine again, of that I am very confident but the next 12 months could be quite challenging or maybe consumer sentiment picks up again earlier than next August, frankly its anyone's guess. I do note TRA offer a much better yield and are weathering the current economic challenges a lot better than HLG. Further, HLG's index inclusion event is behind them whereas TRA's is ahead of them.
Agree with you Ezek22 and as you point out, their balance sheet is very robust but nevertheless its always about the outlook and that looks fairly challenging to me at least for the next year.
Over the last few months Group sales were down 4%/5% on same period last year. Seems to be a common theme amongst rag traders.
We'll have to wait until the full report comes out to get an idea of its group wide or just specific to NZ or even worse if the Glassons OZ bubble has burst.
Interesting that this years profit of $32 is less than F21 profit if $33m even though sales are $60m higher. Just confirms that all those covid subsidies flowed straight through to the bottom line (and dividends)....they didn't really need that support because over the duration of covid sales weren't really affected. At least Aussie taxpayers fronted up with a fair bit of dosh
ABS Retail Data July sales reports Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing rose 2.0% ($56.7m) in July, in seasonally adjusted terms.
Love those seasonally adjusted numbers being positive — in actual $ July sales were down 1.6% (~$50m) on July last year
So HLG sales bit weak lately in line with market
Westpac saying NZD could depreciate 10% over the next year
That could hurt HLG margins.
One analyst pointed out that over time HLG gross margin has been tied to the USD ...but recently Glassons AU have caused that relationship to break down because it's a strong brand and as such more resilient to those headwinds
Go Glassons AU
Just noticed that marketscreener just added a consensus tab to HLG. Probably in recognition of its new NZX50 status. Current analyst "consensus" is $5.50 and comes with a SELL recommendation.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HALLENSTEIN-GLASSON-HOLDI-6495564/
Admittedly - so far it is only one single analyst they are reporting on (might be the only one looking into this company, i.e. - consensus easy to achieve), but still ... I am wondering whether this will motivate punters?
Oops - was this the SP just denting the MA200?
Forsyth Barr are the only ones covering it and are bearish.
HLG is moving out of its big Chch store. Apparently Hallensteins is moving to a new store while Glassons swaps with Mecca. The Mecca store is one third the size of the current HLG store.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/christchurch-city-mall-shake-up-sees-store-spots-fill-up-as-shop-demand-spikes/WNFHSHXKONDZNBLOPNES74NZDU/
I think we're going to see quite a bit of store rationalisation in New Zealand from HLG in the years ahead as their leases come up for renewal.
Wonder what X will be in next announcement ........sales for the first 8 weeks of FY24 are up X%on same period last year
That'll give an indication if Forbars are unnecessary bearish
Sales last year in the first half were exceptionally strong. I think X will be a mildly negative %.
I think Tim Glasson owns that site where the HLG Chch superstore is ...rents shown as a related party transaction ...all completely arms length of course
Probably put the rent up too much HLG had to move out lol
Quote from: winner (n) on Sep 15, 2023, 02:03 PMI think Tim Glasson owns that site where the HLG Chch superstore is ...rents shown as a related party transaction ...all completely arms length of course
Probably put the rent up too much HLG had to move out lol
I do not theenk Tim Glasson vill mourn the departure of hees flagship female store een Christchurch:
'Tim Glasson' = 'Not miss gal'
RB
Quote from: Basil on Sep 15, 2023, 01:55 PMSales last year in the first half were exceptionally strong. I think X will be a mildly negative %.
Hello Hello Hello what have we here then. Winners onto it on other forum, saying HLG profit up 25% and BIG div coming soon. Must be time to start buying back in Basil. Just imagine winning lotto woops I mean buying into HLG now Buying 100,000 and it goes up a dollar then they chuck you a 40c div. Wow not as good as lotto but I wouldn't laugh at $140,000 profit. LOL
Welcome aboard seaweed.
thats almost ramping in a high inflationary environ ..... but with the cyclical swings in this stock history we could still 5 dollars... hears hoping ... HOPIUM...
Quote from: seaweed on Sep 19, 2023, 02:15 PMHello Hello Hello what have we here then. Winners onto it on other forum, saying HLG profit up 25% and BIG div coming soon. Must be time to start buying back in Basil. Just imagine winning lotto woops I mean buying into HLG now Buying 100,000 and it goes up a dollar then they chuck you a 40c div. Wow not as good as lotto but I wouldn't laugh at $140,000 profit. LOL
Canny investors like you, me and Whome who backed the truck up late last year at around $5.20 and collected 48 cents in divvies in total in Dec 2022 and April 2023 and a gain of $1.65 on NZX 50 index inclusion to $6.85 made a total return of $2.13 per share if they sold on index inclusion. It was a LOT of fun I am sure you agree but I think it's going to be a fairly long time between drinks on HLG before we can toast that sort of success again. The fact is this recession is biting them reasonably hard at present and their index inclusion event is behind them.
On the other hand TRA appear to be weathering the current economic headwinds extremely well and their index inclusion event looks likely this December. In addition, TRA's quarterly dividends are fully imputed and that make a big difference to what you get in your hand.
Quote from: Basil on Sep 20, 2023, 08:26 PMCanny investors like you, me and Whome who backed the truck up late last year at around $5.20 and collected 48 cents in divvies in total in Dec 2022 and April 2023 and a gain of $1.65 on NZX 50 index inclusion to $6.85 made a total return of $2.13 per share if they sold on index inclusion. It was a LOT of fun I am sure you agree but I think it's going to be a fairly long time between drinks on HLG before we can toast that sort of success again. The fact is this recession is biting them reasonably hard at present and their index inclusion event is behind them.
On the other hand TRA appear to be weathering the current economic headwinds extremely well and their index inclusion event looks likely this December. In addition, TRA's quarterly dividends are fully imputed and that make a big difference to what you get in your hand.
It all sounds good, but afraid I have missed the boat on TRA. Would of been good at $3.20. I got something else up my sleeve that is a lot more liquid but just waiting for right time to get in. In the mean time just enjoying the safety of 5.2% in the bank. But still have half a truck load of HLG in the green 27K. Some I bought about a year ago at 4.99 and more the next day at 5.20. Anyway, see what the full year results bring us next week, hopefully not too bad. Now all I have to do is figure how to logout.
I would suggest you haven't missed the boat with TRA and its probably the most compelling value growth stock on the NZX. See post #298 in the Turners thread for the highly attractive metrics, summarized below. HLG a good company in the long term with Glassons Au growth but the incoming CEO has a truckload of work to do with getting the N.Z. operations of the group into a state where they make healthy profits such that HLG can one day fully impute its dividends again.
At this point summarizing the differences as I see them with HLG at $5.75 and TRA at $3.60. HLG being materially affected by consumer headwinds on a forecast of about $25m for 42 cps in FY24 on a forward PE of 13.7 and gross yield with partial imputation credits of about 8%.
On the other hand TRA to post yet another record profit for FY24 despite very strong finance cost headwinds and the current economic slowdown on a forward PE in the low 9's and gross yield of close to 10%. TRA's divvies will always be fully imputed and that makes a huge difference to the net amount you receive.
HLG used to pay out in the mid 40's cps fully imputed, sadly the prospect for full imputation credits going forward is pretty dismal in my view. It's going to be many years before the growth in Glasson's Au overcomes the very modest level of imputation credits HLG is now able to pay such that the net dividend receivable in the future is back to where it used to be with mid 40's fully imputed dividends....and that's before we consider the fact that even when it does match it, over the years inflation has eaten a lot of the value away.
All that and TRA's NZX50 inclusion is ahead of it and HLG's index inclusion is behind it. We saw what happened with the $1.40 share price spike when HLG was included in the NZX50 index. That event is behind it now behind it and isn't going to happen again in the foreseeable future. Not impossible that in percentage terms, (27% increase), the same thing could happen with TRA when it probably gets included in the NZX50 in December.
I still like HLG and holding long term makes a very good case for itself with their excellent management, strong balance sheet, good cash flow and excellent prospects for Glassons Au growth in the long term when normal economic conditions resume. In the year ahead, or possibly the next 18-24 months I think the chances of share price appreciation from here are quite modest whereas the chance of a reversion to the low $5 range is very good. In the meantime, if you are happy with 8% gross yield then I am sure the company will serve you well. I'd be keen to jump back in a more meaningful way at the prices you mentioned above, especially at $5.00
That's how I see it mate.
YUP SP under valued and with the latest musings on the economy today in the local rags "where you going to go" ....
No money ? we have the deal for you!
HLG now going to rely on the AUSSI economy to not follow NZ...
would not have even noticed this stock if it was not for MR B... its not a very green stock though.....
Unlikely to surprise in HLG results this coming Friday, forecast from FB on GoodReturns yesterday.
Quote from: seaweed on Sep 27, 2023, 10:03 AMUnlikely to surprise in HLG results this coming Friday, forecast from FB on GoodReturns yesterday.
And share price will go up by about size of divie announced
Quote from: winner (n) on Sep 27, 2023, 10:52 AMAnd share price will go up by about size of divie announced
Yes you are right. It happened a year ago. SP went up 21c on announcement date and another 7c the next day, dropped back 2c the next day and the next day on the 7/10/22 went up 10c then weekend, then on Monday the 10/10/22 it went up another 15c. Talk about divi chasers. Then it took a breather for 4 days and then you know the rest. So will be interesting what happens tomorrow, but we are coming from a high base compared to last year so who knows and good luck to all holders and divi chasers for tomorrow.
Happy days for holders. Sales up, profit up, margins and dividend steady.
Yeah, that was kind of expected. But about the outlook not great, I guess we were expecting a decline and it compares with a solid start last year, sales were up 68%
Quote from: ezek22 on Sep 29, 2023, 09:52 AMYeah, that was kind of expected. But about the outlook not great, I guess we were expecting a decline and it compares with a solid start last year, sales were up 68%
Agreed, the tougher economic conditions etc were always going to have some impact. I thought their outlook statement was mostly positive - a 'we've got this' vibe . A whole lot more reassuring than what some other retailers have provided!
Solid result. For divvy hounds its great to see them implementing new intercompany charges which reflect various matters of value N.Z. operations provide to Australia. See announcement. Sound logic there as we can't claim franking credits whereas these charges boost income here and lead to an increased level of imputation credits here. Additionally, the tax rate is 30% there and 28% here. Great move and has only marginally impacted profitability of Glassons Au whereas profit from Glassons N.Z. and Hallensteins is well up.
Dividend at 24 cents with 75% imputation credits is of considerably more net value to shareholders than last years unimputed dividend of the same amount.
Balance sheet remains strong.
Gross profit remains satisfactory. Couldn't help myself have a bit of a chuckle. HLG made more profit than WHS despite selling just over $400m whereas WHS sold 3.2 Billion, 8 times as much. One has well proven management and the other...oh dear...
FY24 Outlook was slightly better than I expected with sales down just under 6% YTD compared to the same period last year (very strong trading period) and positive commentary on gross margin improvement was most welcome.
All things considered this is a slight beat on my expectations in terms of outlook and a sound beat in terms of how they have recalibrated intercompany charges to fairly reflect value provided to Australia such that the level of imputation is considerably higher than I expected.
Too early to update my forecast for FY24 but $25m net profit I previously mentioned looks a bit too conservative.
I think the shares are about fair value at around the current level and I expect HLG will cope with the current trading headwinds better than most.
Quote from: Basil on Sep 29, 2023, 10:06 AMSolid result. For divvy hounds its great to see them implementing new intercompany charges which reflect various matters of value N.Z. operations provide to Australia. See announcement. Sound logic there as we can't claim franking credits whereas these charges boost income here and lead to an increased level of imputation credits here. Additionally, the tax rate is 30% there and 28% here. Great move and has only marginally impacted profitability of Glassons Au whereas profit from Glassons N.Z. and Hallensteins is well up.
Dividend at 24 cents with 75% imputation credits is of considerably more net value to shareholders than last years unimputed dividend of the same amount.
Balance sheet remains strong.
Gross profit remains satisfactory. Couldn't help myself have a bit of a chuckle. HLG made more profit than WHS despite selling just over $400m whereas WHS sold 3.2 Billion, 8 times as much. One has well proven management and the other...oh dear...
FY24 Outlook was slightly better than I expected with sales down just under 6% YTD compared to the same period last year (very strong trading period) and positive commentary on gross margin improvement was most welcome.
All things considered this is a slight beat on my expectations in terms of outlook and a sound beat in terms of how they have recalibrated intercompany charges to fairly reflect value provided to Australia such that the level of imputation is considerably higher than I expected.
Too early to update my forecast for FY24 but $25m net profit I previously mentioned looks a bit too conservative.
I think the shares are about fair value at around the current level and I expect HLG will cope with the current trading headwinds better than most.
The key concern for me is the rather old fashioned way they're doing business. Obvious things like:
Paying a dividend out of cashflow rather than selling a building and taking on debt.
Underpaying head office, CEO Duncan's salary is $650K (around half the average for companies of similar size in the NZ market.)
Not a single mention of an 'integrated ecosystem' (although 'agile' snuck into the last sentence - so there is hope! 8))
Quote from: Basil on Sep 29, 2023, 10:06 AMSolid result. For divvy hounds its great to see them implementing new intercompany charges which reflect various matters of value N.Z. operations provide to Australia. See announcement. Sound logic there as we can't claim franking credits whereas these charges boost income here and lead to an increased level of imputation credits here. Additionally, the tax rate is 30% there and 28% here. Great move and has only marginally impacted profitability of Glassons Au whereas profit from Glassons N.Z. and Hallensteins is well up.
Dividend at 24 cents with 75% imputation credits is of considerably more net value to shareholders than last years unimputed dividend of the same amount.
Balance sheet remains strong.
Gross profit remains satisfactory. Couldn't help myself have a bit of a chuckle. HLG made more profit than WHS despite selling just over $400m whereas WHS sold 3.2 Billion, 8 times as much. One has well proven management and the other...oh dear...
FY24 Outlook was slightly better than I expected with sales down just under 6% YTD compared to the same period last year (very strong trading period) and positive commentary on gross margin improvement was most welcome.
All things considered this is a slight beat on my expectations in terms of outlook and a sound beat in terms of how they have recalibrated intercompany charges to fairly reflect value provided to Australia such that the level of imputation is considerably higher than I expected.
Too early to update my forecast for FY24 but $25m net profit I previously mentioned looks a bit too conservative.
I think the shares are about fair value at around the current level and I expect HLG will cope with the current trading headwinds better than most.
Great points!! thank you for sharing that. Yes, definitely intercompany charges were a great move! And you a right about FY24, I mean, to spect better earnings than FY22 26m if the company is going to be only -6% rev for the year but with better margins doesn't sound to crazy to me!
Quote from: Hectorplains on Sep 29, 2023, 10:20 AMThe key concern for me is the rather old fashioned way they're doing business. Obvious things like:
Paying a dividend out of cashflow rather than selling a building and taking on debt.
Underpaying head office, CEO Duncan's salary is $650K (around half the average for companies of similar size in the NZ market.)
Not a single mention of an 'integrated ecosystem' (although 'agile' snuck into the last sentence - so there is hope! 8))
;D ;D Would be good if they could do a Glasson crypto coin, or nfts for some exclusive models. Some AI deployment would help as well
"The key concern for me is the rather old fashioned way they're doing business. Obvious things like:
Paying a dividend out of cashflow rather than selling a building and taking on debt. "
shocking... shocking... shocking....
GOSH!!!
does the SP reflect this? last DIV share price pre NZX50 was 5.80 ish...
or does this say something about the country as a Hole?
blimey ...
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/419108
stone the crows ....
will anyone believe it ...
H&M took a hit yesterday ..
A good result but outlook cloudy. With the cost of living, increased costs, shoplifting I don't think retail is the place to be in the short term. They have done well to maintain margin due to they say freight and cost efficiencies. FB latest note has it as underperform.
Quote from: Shareguy on Sep 29, 2023, 02:10 PMA good result but outlook cloudy. With the cost of living, increased costs, shoplifting I don't think retail is the place to be in the short term. They have done well to maintain margin due to they say freight and cost efficiencies. FB latest note has it as underperform.
Wow, if that is underperform and paying 48c div at 8% yld., just imagine when it starts to perform and goes up a dollar and collect a div on the way and another div 4 months later. Must be time to top up again before it hits 6 dollar. Smiley face with sunglasses.
Glassons AU only held share last half year (if I go to 3 decimal points up a tiny bit). However still up from a year ago.
Hope market presence not starting to fade
IMG_5499.jpeg
Very well considered post by Muse on the other channel.
QuoteIt already is - the 1H was a fantastic result - the 2H was quite poor, and that looks like continuing into FY24. A few observations.
A helicopter perspective first. Sales in the 2H were up 3.2%, while NPAT fell 18.6% over the same period. Sales for the first 8 weeks of FY24 are down 5.9%. So using the exit run rate from the 2H, when a lift in sales of 3.2% still produced a fall in NPAT of 18.6%, what happens to NPAT when the group is posting now meaningful declines in revenue? It's clear topline growth is no longer translating through to earnings growth, and from the inflationary effect on CODB there are substantial cost issues & the business is increasingly operationally leveraged, a highly undesirable position to be in with falling volumes & sales.
Case in point - 2H revenues of $186.4m were higher than in any of the preceding 5 financial years, but 2H NPAT of $11.152m was also below all those same periods. Implicitly its 2H NPAT margin as a % of sales is also now lower than the previous five 2H results.
This is despite a 180bps improvement in group GP margins achieved in the 2H, relative to the first half. In post #8895 I mused if GP margins had troughed in the first half (given freight rate movements and if not would be in the 2H) and that looks to have transpired, a positive development. That said the outlook for margin still looks challenging given the group purchases raw materials (and pays for inward freight) in US dollars, and both the NZD and AUD have depreciated considerably in the new financial year relative to 2H FY23. I would have thought the group, particularly in Australia, completed the bulk of its excess winter clearances in July (typically the biggest month for winter discounts) and perhaps some into August, necessitated by a warmer winter, so I'd expect some overall margin improvement in the new year.
So that really shines a spotlight on overheads/cost of doing business (CODB), and the growing operational leverage in the business. In the 1H FY23 result, management commented they were looking for cost efficiencies wherever possible. Despite that, CODB (including lease interest expense) still increased 9.1%. Sure, a few new stores stores since then, so on a CODB per average store basis, increased about 7.3%. If you break it down more looking at the cost segment notes, all up lease & rental expenses per average store (ROU depreciation + ROU interest + expensed short term rentals) were up about 12.9% per AS, wages up 3.9% per AS, outward distribution largely variable and consistent as a % of sales, and other CODB/average store up about 6.5%.
I wouldn't necessarily expect CODB to continue at that rate into FY24 but I don't think it will be materially less than that. Wage pressure persists in both countries (particularly in Australia), which hopefully the group can offset some by flexing and releasing casuals as demand falls (and I expect they did in the 2H FY23). Rent remains high and many of them will have references to CPI which hurts in a falling demand environment. It'll take a few years for that to fully normalise as leases come up for renewal as pressure grows on landlords to improve terms in respect of the macro environment. Rolling forward will be additional lease expense associated with new office and warehouse space taken next to the Sydney fulfillment centre that wasn't in 1H Fy23's result (a bit of an investment for the future). Insurance costs, security costs, rates are all headed in the wrong direction. HLG's board and management team are very savvy old hands renowned for being hard negotiators so I'd expect they will do a better job than most in managing the situation. That said they have a new CEO coming in from KMD, which is a much more top heavy, bureaucratic and ESG focused model so probably worth considering how that could impact on cost creep in the future.
On the demand side, a 5.9% fall in sales over the first 8 weeks of the new financial year is meaningful when you consider the impact of inflation and the monthly spike up associated with the FIFA WWC in both countries. I note that Forbar who are the only analyst covering HLG were forecasting immediately prior to today FY24 NPAT of $23.6m, and only expected sales to fall 1% in 1H FY24, so not tracking well from that perspective. To be fair their reports never really mentioned the impact of freight on GP and centred on FX so I wouldn't be surprised to see if they now revise their revenue assumptions, GP %, and adjust CODB forecasts accordingly following todays report.
The most important 2 months of the financial year are November and December which isn't far away, so one shouldn't read too much into the first 8 week run rate (up or down). Rent is high (& accelerated to a record high in NZ last month), food price inflation remains high if moderating, fuel has gone back up to very uncomfortable levels, student debt interest is increasing, parents mortgages are increasing as they roll off fixed terms, and unemployment while very low will probably only go in one direction. You'd have to do some mental gymnastics in order to rationalise a positive retail demand picture. A new Glassons AU store in scheduled for opening in December (most of the way through 1H), and probably another one in the 2H if history is any guide, but with ~119 in the network the margin gain from individual new store openings is diminishing.
The most positive thing in the 2H result from my perspective was the implementation of transfer pricing & its positive impact on imputation credits and theoretical lowering of future effective tax rates. Early last year I commented on this thread that they should implement one - nice to see it being actioned
The gradual erosion of imputation credits is an issue for dividend loving kiwis but there is one partial solution to it that could be implemented, transfer pricing.....multi jurisdiction retailers give regard to (with high levels of outside professional advice) a transferpricing policy that ensures the appropriate level of profit earnt and tax is paid where the bulk of the underlying value creation occurs. IE, the design, procurement, marketing, and financing functions....Glancing at the FY21 stat accounts it appears Glassons AU has slightly better GP margins than Glassons NZ - that signals no transfer pricing arrangement as any inter company fees to recover those vital functions would normally be borne in COGS and dimish gross profit margins....I've had a brief glance through linkedin and it appears the majority of glassons non retail staff (ie design, procurement, marketing & finance) are in NZ (but certainly not ALL of them - James Glassons is in AU for instance).From a tax perspective this would do 3 things. It would lower HLG's tax risk in NZ as it could be argued HLG should be charging more for some of those services. It would increase the tax paid in NZ. And it would increase the imputation credits available to HLG's overwhelmingly NZ shareholder base.
That's a real tangible improvement and well done to management for implementing it. And that they retained the 24cps dividend which was a gimmie given they underpaid in 1H and brought the full year payout to 89.5% (FY18 to FY23 average payout of 90.3%).
Anyway - one long TLDR muse from me - all my opinions & initial reactions only. Retail an increasingly volatile beast so critical to do your own research and come to your own view.
Hey seeweed ...... the price went by more than the divie ....the market must like the outlook .....good eh
Very low volume though. I think Muse's thoughts about the increasing cost of doing business warrant careful reflection.
Got to like Winners() pastels....
Quote from: winner (n) on Sep 30, 2023, 10:05 AMHey seeweed ...... the price went by more than the divie ....the market must like the outlook .....good eh
Yes it is good, but what Basil and Muse are saying is correct. Adding to that, someone bought about 7,000 shares on close and pushed the sp up which is low volume in most companies, but for HLG it is different, there isn't enough shares to go around and sp is always pushed around on what we call low volume. The way I see it with 24c div coming in about 8 weeks and another possible big div 16 weeks after that and the busy Christmas period on our doorsteps it is looking pretty positive to me. My bank is only paying me about 5.2% and am tempted to top up more HLG for the 8% yld. plus sp gain. I have a term deposit maturing this month looking for that 8% yld. A good company and thank you HLG from all shareholders. What do you think winner, $7 just around the corner once we bowl over the the $6 hurdle 8)
there is no LQ... you cant dump into that and make ... it wont work un less you drip feed and they will hold your orders back if it looks like you will sink the SP..
a single buyer could push the SP to 7 anytime you like..
but then your stuck there...
there is no LQ..
If they can do $25m in FY24 that's 42 cps (forward PE 14.3) and say they pay 38 cps in dividends with 75% imputation credits that's (0.38/0.79) / $6 = 8.01% gross. Those metrics are satisfactory for what is probably trough year earnings, but I struggle to see what drives the shares any higher at this point and one would be wise to consider the possibility of it reverting to previous support at about $5.40, a ~ 10% capital loss from here. As Waltzing says, liquidity is very poor. I think most of the fun with this one was had prior to and during the index inclusion process. Those looking for short term gains are probably better "Turning", (you see what I did there ;) ), their attention to the next index inclusion event. 10% gross yield with TRA, (assuming 25 cps divvies), and forward PE just under 10 are more compelling metrics in my opinion + the wild card of what extra (temporary or permanent?), boost from probable index inclusion?
Time to change which horse you back? you be the judge.
Quote from: Basil on Oct 01, 2023, 10:40 AMIf they can do $25m in FY24 that's 42 cps (forward PE 14.3) and say they pay 38 cps in dividends with 75% imputation credits that's (0.38/0.79) / $6 = 8.01% gross. Those metrics are satisfactory for what is probably trough year earnings, but I struggle to see what drives the shares any higher at this point and one would be wise to consider the possibility of it reverting to previous support at about $5.40, a ~ 10% capital loss from here. As Waltzing says, liquidity is very poor. I think most of the fun with this one was had prior to and during the index inclusion process. Those looking for short term gains are probably better "Turning", (you see what I did there ;) ), their attention to the next index inclusion event. 10% gross yield with TRA, (assuming 25 cps divvies), and forward PE just under 10 are more compelling metrics in my opinion + the wild card of what extra (temporary or permanent?), boost from probable index inclusion?
Time to change which horse you back? you be the judge.
Thanks for all your input Basil, you put in a lot of time and effort and I appreciate that and will also be buying more if sp gets down to $5.40 to $5.80 and looking forward to 24c div in December and another div in April making it 48c for the year. And good luck to all us HLG holders.
Stats Nz card sales data for September month showed apparel sales down 5.4% on last year
But we knew thatbasvtheybsaid a slow start to the year
All those long term arrivals must have bought all their clothes with them
NZD should be up next week as ANATLAND heads in a new direction...
somewhere over the rainbow....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V1bFr2SWP1I
summer sales coming soon for beachwear? go on a new day coming up and the sun will shine all summer long ...
For sake of interest.
I posted this over in the 'Retail Stocks' thread but perhaps relevant here too given the sales of HLG appear to be better than other clothing retailers AFAIK.
WHERE THE RETAIL CUTBACKS ARE:
ANZ reported its card tracking shows small gains in consumer spending in September. Tourism is a bright spot. But for consumers spending on clothing is lower than a year ago despite inflation rising +4.4% for that category. Spending on business goods and services is the other area keeping the overall levels up, especially "utilities and repairs".
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/124845/review-things-you-need-know-you-sign-thursday-tough-fhbs-they-borrow-anyway
Currency down in the 58 cent zone must be hurting a bit too.
From Aussie retail sales data
Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing rose 0.3% ($8.8m) in September, in seasonally adjusted terms.
Better than going backwards so no worries for Glassons AU
Quote from: winner (n) on Oct 30, 2023, 03:15 PMFrom Aussie retail sales data
Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing rose 0.3% ($8.8m) in September, in seasonally adjusted terms.
Better than going backwards so no worries for Glassons AU
Yes better than backwards. Yld=8.28% @ $5.80, PE=10.82, EPS=53.61, and a 48c div. So anyone out there want to sell there HLG for under 5.80 then I am waiting it might be under 5.90 next week ;)
All good numbers on the face of it Seeweed. The problem is those are last years numbers and the market is a forward looking beast and is concerned with this years numbers.
If they only make $25m after tax this year that's 42 cps and the forward PE is 13.80.
I think its now clear last year was boosted by an extraordinary first half that's not likely to repeat this half. In addition, with the currency around 58 cents U.S. there are now strong headwinds from that sort of exchange rate.
I think the shares are about fair value at present. Very well managed company with a great business model, strong balance sheet and excellent board.
Good hold for the long term but in the short term, I am not so sure.
Well that makes a bit of a change, my two favorite companies up today TRA and HLG and I didn't have to buy any, someone else did. I notice about 2.40pm some buyers took out a lot of the 5.80 sellers of HLG. SP is holding up pretty good considering the lack of buyers. It looks like someone just wants to buy them at the selling price without putting in an order at a much lower price. I wonder if that is you Basil being tempted to the nice big div on the horizon. I hear there is a sharetrader meeting at the Oyster and Chop in a couple of weeks. Anybody on this site going. ;D
HLG hit the 6 months low of 5.65 on the 19/10/23, I bought some for my birthday the same day for 5.68, but have noticed others are starting to come back in and sp forming a mini uptrend in last 3 weeks. $6 not looking too far off now, but in saying that, quiet often when I post something on sharetrader or stock talk, someone will come along and sell a lot off HGL and push the price down and prove me wrong lol. No worries 4 weeks to big 24c ex div and then another div 16 weeks later, and their busy season just around the corner with Christmas and summer holidays. Come on now if you want to sell, there are 3 others wanting to buy in the $5.89 and $5.90 bracket. :)
Looks like I have to pay between $5.90 and $6 now. Anyone want to sell me there excess shares for under $6. We all waiting.
$6 close, congrats mate.
Thank you, I think it might have something to do with 24c div next month and then another div what ever that will be 16 weeks later. HLG now up 35c since six months low of $5.65.
Quote from: Basil on Nov 08, 2023, 05:28 PM$6 close, congrats mate.
$6.05 now. There must be other interested buyers. That little worm is heading for $6.10. It would have to be div hunters.
Quote from: seaweed on Nov 09, 2023, 05:49 PM$6.05 now. There must be other interested buyers. That little worm is heading for $6.10. It would have to be div hunters.
How sensible is it to hunt dividends you first are paying for by an increased purchase price?
I guess, sure - the dividend (assuming they can maintain it) still looks juicy, but the share is priced for perfection - and many industries discover these days that consumers priorities have changed. Talk with the restaurant owner at the corner ...
Quote from: BlackPeter on Nov 09, 2023, 06:55 PMHow sensible is it to hunt dividends you first are paying for by an increased purchase price?
I guess, sure - the dividend (assuming they can maintain it) still looks juicy, but the share is priced for perfection - and many industries discover these days that consumers priorities have changed. Talk with the restaurant owner at the corner ...
Yes I agree. But what if sp goes to 6.10 or 6.20 before ex div. Then you can have the value of two divs and not to mention the 15c to 24c div or whatever div that comes 16 weeks later, that could lead to the value of three divs. Anyway I am buying more TRA and HLG before div so anyone who is a bit nervous we are ready and waiting for any sellers under 6.00
Quote from: seaweed on Nov 10, 2023, 09:55 AMYes I agree. But what if sp goes to 6.10 or 6.20 before ex div. Then you can have the value of two divs and not to mention the 15c to 24c div or whatever div that comes 16 weeks later, that could lead to the value of three divs. Anyway I am buying as many TRA and HLG as possible before inclusion or div so anyone who is a bit nervous we are ready and waiting for any sellers under 6.00
Fair enough. Your strategies and time plans are clearly different from mine, and I am sure - with both you can make money :). I normally see things from a long term (investors-) perspective ... and don't worry too much about short term ripples which may or may not occurr.
Most retailers seem to be reporting flat or declining sales over the last few months
HLG said in September first 8 weeks sales down 5.86%
Wonder what the 5.86% has turned into when they no doubt give an update at the ASM in a few weeks time
Wouldn't want it to be any higher
Yeah would agree, don't want it any higher. I will go have a chat with the glassons & Halleys at Sylvia Park and see how their sales are going before the AGM on 12 /12 23. Sylvia Park closest to me, and maybe other holders could go have a little chat at their closest branch.
Went for a little visit to Sylvia Park on way home about 4pm. Talked to the Hally boys and they were just plodding along as usual, but do get a lot busier on late night and in the weekends. So no surprises there. Then went to visit the Glassy girls. Exactly the opposite with music playing and the big screen video of singing and dancing a steady stream of customers and the shop assistant said it will get lot busier later being late night. She said it was quite busy on singles day 11/11/23 and have promotions coming up on black Friday 24th Nov. So it all sounds pretty good leading up to the Christmas big spend. Also thinking what someone said a few months back about the age group of the Glasson shoppers, they not worried about recessions and mortgage rates, they just want to go out party, dance have fun and look good in all their Glassons gear. So Basil, when all the dust has settled with TRA and NZX50 inclusion, the Glassy girls have said it, come back Bas. :)
Those Glassons girls want the Beagle back...oh my goodness, Tina wants me as well, whatever do I do...where's my heart pills lol
It'll be interesting to see how well sales are holding up. Certainly, the cost of freight is no longer the very strong headwind it was so that will help.
Quote from: Basil on Nov 16, 2023, 09:11 PMCertainly, the cost of freight is no longer the very strong headwind it was so that will help.
For sure. I have observed elsewhere with locals importing ex Asia that freight costs (after adjusting for volume variations) are down around 60% year on year.
Quote from: seaweed on Nov 16, 2023, 07:35 PMWent for a little visit to Sylvia Park on way home about 4pm. Talked to the Hally boys and they were just plodding along as usual, but do get a lot busier on late night and in the weekends. So no surprises there. Then went to visit the Glassy girls. Exactly the opposite with music playing and the big screen video of singing and dancing a steady stream of customers and the shop assistant said it will get lot busier later being late night. She said it was quite busy on singles day 11/11/23 and have promotions coming up on black Friday 24th Nov. So it all sounds pretty good leading up to the Christmas big spend. Also thinking what someone said a few months back about the age group of the Glasson shoppers, they not worried about recessions and mortgage rates, they just want to go out party, dance have fun and look good in all their Glassons gear. So Basil, when all the dust has settled with TRA and NZX50 inclusion, the Glassy girls have said it, come back Bas. :)
Good stuff seeweed but isn't that the response you'd expect to hear
The question you should be asking is are they selling
more or less than a year ago .....that answer will answer the question will I get a bigger dividend than last year
Huge move up in GAP today and your Lululemon done really well this year too Winner. Big name apparel brands doing more than okay.
The $64,000 question is to what extent does the brand value of Glassons hold up during this cost of living crisis?
On the other hand we have the rampant growth of Temu as an ultra-low cost Chinese controlled competitor which is making inroads into some people's purchasing habits.
I have just posted on HLG turnover for Black Friday and the weekend on the other site....Sharetrader, so you can read it on there 8)
Bit of good and bad news for retail fashion stocks in Australia.
"Falling clothes prices and an easing in supermarket cost pressures delivered an unexpectedly sharp fall in inflation last month.
Annual inflation fell to 4.9 per cent in October from 5.6 per cent in September, as price pressures for consumer goods moderate because of falling demand, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday.
The monthly consumer price indicator was lower than economists' expectations of a 5.2 per cent outcome and cements the market's view that the RBA board will almost certainly keep the cash rate on hold at 4.35 per cent at its final meeting of the year on December 5."
Sorry to drag poor old lonely HLG back to the surface. Wasn't that long ago it was the star golden goose but now just a distant memory in the shadow of TRA. The sp has been pushing back up in the last few weeks leading into the ex div 24c on Thursday 7/12/23 and AGM on 12/12/23 and not to mention another div 16 weeks later in April. Was talking to the glassy girl at Sylvia Park again today. She said it was very busy Thursday through to Sunday with the usual pre Christmas shopping and said it will carry on like that right up until Christmas. Good luck to anyone else still holding HLG and am looking forward to the update 12 December.
Next Tuesday crunch day .....boring as ASM but they'll have a sales update
After 8 weeks new year down 8% on last year .....another couple months have past ....I wonder what X will be when they say sales year to date are X% v last year.
Seeweed anything to go by it'll be a big +ve number ......my guess -9%
Quote from: seaweed on Dec 04, 2023, 04:19 PMSorry to drag poor old lonely HLG back to the surface. Wasn't that long ago it was the star golden goose but now just a distant memory in the shadow of TRA. The sp has been pushing back up in the last few weeks leading into the ex div 24c on Thursday 7/12/23 and AGM on 12/12/23 and not to mention another div 16 weeks later in April. Was talking to the glassy girl at Sylvia Park again today. She said it was very busy Thursday through to Sunday with the usual pre Christmas shopping and said it will carry on like that right up until Christmas. Good luck to anyone else still holding HLG and am looking forward to the update 12 December.
I suppose there might be a reason people don't talk about them anymore. If you look at the numbers (and hope things don't deteriorate in a cost of living crisis, than they look currently fairly valued at best.
Backwards PE (10yrs) is 15, forward PE (3 years) is 12.6 and forward earnings CAGR is below the line of inflation (2.7%).
Not really exciting. For SP to appreciate, they would need an amazing Christmas season and something which gives markets confidence that this is not just a one-off.
I'd say the odds for SP to keep going down are better than the odds for SP rising ... and while I expect them to keep paying a good dividend around 6%, everybody needs to decide for themselves whether the divie is a good compensation for the principle lingering around or further dropping.
Have a look at what the SP did last Christmas: hanging around until mid January and than tanking. Not sure I expect this years Christmas business to be better, so why should the SP behave differently? Some people would say the past is the best indicator for the future :);
Hey BP ...Christmas 22 was good .....share price was over $7.00 ....last Christmas about $5.40
Like you I feel -X% will be quite high and we will see share price closer to $5 than $6 ...index inclusion don't count for much these days.
Unfortunately, I have to concur and see the chances of them heading down towards last year's support level of about $5.40 as being the most likely share price pathway in the near future. Longer term this is a very well-managed company with excellent growth prospects for Glassons Au. I'd like to be a holder again but at this point my perception is the risk-reward situation appears somewhat skewed toward risk.
Kind of miss being a holder though but there's no room for emotional attachment in my investment play-book any more. If it gets down to $5.40 at some stage I'd really welcome the opportunity to consider it again.
I suppose our Tim will be re-elected as a Director again
Could get to 40 years service
Maybe been there too long ...these times are different they say
I'm sure his son James gives him a good tune-up about modern ways of doing things from time to time.
Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 05, 2023, 10:08 AMHey BP ...Christmas 22 was good .....share price was over $7.00 ....last Christmas about $5.40
Like you I feel -X% will be quite high and we will see share price closer to $5 than $6 ...index inclusion don't count for much these days.
Just had a look into marketscreener. For what its worth - analyst consensus for FY2024 is revenue down by something like 3% (410m down to 399m) and earnings down something like 25% (54cts down to 40 cts). Now - these are full year forecasts (not just the Christmas season), and analysts predictions are not more often right than anybody elses, but still - holders might want to consider to get some additional wintergear to get through this season :):
Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 05, 2023, 09:51 AMNext Tuesday crunch day .....boring as ASM but they'll have a sales update
After 8 weeks new year down 8% on last year .....another couple months have past ....I wonder what X will be when they say sales year to date are X% v last year.
Seeweed anything to go by it'll be a big +ve number ......my guess -9%
I don't think it will be a BIG +ve am just saying what the Glassy girl was saying about Singles day and Black Friday and leading up to Christmas. Whatever the results, HLG is paying me around 8% yld and a 24c ex div tomorrow and another div of approx 18c to 24c 16 weeks later in April. Banks only paying me a bit over 5% int at the moment. I am lucky I picked up quite a lot of HLG last year in the 4.99 to 5.40c bracket and more above that price for the inclusion, so am still a bit over $35,000 in the green. But I am looking forward to the results whether good or bad, it will be interesting.
See Directors on the give us more fees please bandwagon ...hard work these days being a Director
They want to increase the pool to $725,000
Biggest issue is they have 8 Directors .... 7 non-executive ones (Tim doesn't get paid)
Jeez this really is a old boys gravy train
I'd suggest they get rid of 2 of these directors and there would still be plenty to share around without increasing the fees pool
Suppose they've cut staff numbers .....maybe the Directors should lesd by example
Jeez only a $300m company ....and a pretty uncomplicated one at that
Context is that the profit on the first $9 million of sales goes to Directors.
I vote NO
6
Down ... down... down ...
took a while ..
Quote from: Waltzing on Dec 11, 2023, 04:19 PMDown ... down... down ...
took a while ..
Just a bit thst 'sell the rumour, buy the fact' stuff at moment
All will be fine after tomorrows update .....and punters start talking about peacocking again.
have you managed to half the director numbers yet Winner() ....
what do they actually do?
Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 11, 2023, 05:52 PMJust a bit thst 'sell the rumour, buy the fact' stuff at moment
All will be fine after tomorrows update .....and punters start talking about peacocking again.
I need your help to undertake some valuable market research on this peacocking phenomenon. Sorry mate, its hard work with no pay or reward ;D
https://www.glassons.com/nz/c/clothing/dresses?s=SORT_RELEVANCE&p=2
Annual meeting trading update should give a decent insight into how sales are holding up in this so called cost of living crisis.
Quote from: Waltzing on Dec 11, 2023, 05:54 PMhave you managed to half the director numbers yet Winner() ....
what do they actually do?
Peacocking,of course - why do you ask?
Last time I attended a HLG AGM (some years ago) all HLG managers and board members did wear HLG suits or dresses. Not sure I remember, whether they removed the price tags :) ;
Do the directors have extensive experiance in Retail in AUS?
after all im sure some of you will have family in AUS or soon to move there...
Its the future of NZ...
James Glasson has been over there for many years and has done a stellar job growing Glassons Au.
Quote from: Waltzing on Dec 11, 2023, 06:15 PMDo the directors have extensive experiance in Retail in AUS?
after all im sure some of you will have family in AUS or soon to move there...
Its the future of NZ...
That's a bleak view. Don't forget - climate change will devastate Australia much earlier than it will devastate NZ ... and all the Ossies will soon move to NZ. This will be an amazing opportunity for HLG in NZ ;D
Sales down only 4.7% year to date, cost of doing business going up, (no surprises there), gross margin improving. James Glasson's AGM speech. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/423339/409330.pdf
Comment. I think they are weathering the current economic headwinds quite well.
Quote from: Basil on Dec 12, 2023, 10:20 AMSales down only 4.7% year to date, cost of doing business going up, (no surprises there), gross margin improving. James Glasson's AGM speech. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/423339/409330.pdf
Comment. I think they are weathering the current economic headwinds quite well.
I watched meeting on line but kept nodding off to sleep. I got bits and pieces...75% imputation credits, test outlet in Western Australia and new store in Adelaide and heard the word 50 but said it wasn't 50 new stores but might have been 50 total in the future and the stores are bigger in the main bigger shopping malls. They maintaining the div. But they have better idea of sales after Christmas saying the next 3 weeks are their busiest. Correct me if I got any of that wrong, sounds like another 24c div in April.
Quote from: Basil on Dec 12, 2023, 10:20 AMSales down only 4.7% year to date, cost of doing business going up, (no surprises there), gross margin improving. James Glasson's AGM speech. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/423339/409330.pdf
Comment. I think they are weathering the current economic headwinds quite well.
Sounds though they expect a bit more "weathering" before the next period of happyness breaks out :) .
From the chairs speech:
cost rising, revenue dropping and than this:
Quote... This focus should give us the best chance in sustaining profitability in the current financial year.
I'd read that as "we hope we stay profitable this year, but we don't know yet."
Ouch.
Sales not going to bad so far ....first 8 weeks down 5.9% and since then only down about 3.8% giving year to date of down 4.7%
Sales down about $8m so far on last year so gross margin down less than $5m down on last year
Wonder what costs have goon up by?
Say $5m and then npat could be down by $7m in H1 to about $15m v $22m last year
Jeez after seeing Peter's post I've revised H1 npat forecast down to $10m ....like revenue dropping and costs rising leads to profits being down 50%
Don't think there will be losing money though
See nearly 12% voted against re-election of our Tim. Other directors up for re-election hardly had any no votes
Hope Tim gets the message and decides to retire properly .......and he doesn't need replacing
Seems BP spooked the market with his interpretation of Chairman's statement about this year being profitable or maybe not,
Share price heading low 500's
QuoteThis focus should give us the best chance in sustaining profitability in the current financial year.
I read the room very differently to you BP....that's a first eh ROFL
I read that as, that's our best chance at sustaining the profitability we had last year, (remembering last year was a record)
Sustain is a verb.
Quotesus·tain
[səˈsteɪn]
VERB
strengthen or support physically or mentally:
Replace that line he used with those synonyms. "That's our best chance of strengthening and supporting profitability"
I find it very strange 12% of people don't want Tim Glasson's decades of experience at board level especially with him being a 20% shareholder. Quite bizarre really. Shareholders are very fortunate indeed to have his services and those of his son James.
Disc: No position.
Quote from: Basil on Dec 12, 2023, 03:38 PMI read the room very differently to you BP....that's a first eh ROFL
I read that as, that's our best chance at sustaining the profitability we had last year, (remembering last year was a record)
Sustain is a verb.
Replace that line he used with those synonyms. "That's our best chance of strengthening and supporting profitability"
I find it very strange 12% of people don't want Tim Glasson's decades of experience at board level especially with him being a 20% shareholder. Quite bizarre really. Shareholders are very fortunate indeed to have his services and those of his son James.
Disc: No position.
Obviously - as most English words, the verb "sustain" can be widely interpreted.
"to sustain" means as well "to keep up" or "to keep going".
Maybe you should re-read the chairs speech with that in mind?
But just to avoid any doubt - I did not say that I think HLG might make losses this year. I just said that the chairs speech could be interpreted this way.
From a personal perspective I still expect them to have positive earnings, though I expect them to be significantly smaller than the year before.
And hey - he really made in his speech a lot of noices about uncertain times, didn't he? ... I wonder why.
Fair enough and yes I've already read both annual meeting speeches in full but they are always pretty conservative.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HALLENSTEIN-GLASSON-HOLDI-6495564/consensus/
Only one analyst covering it and rates it a SELL.
Forecasted eps of 40, 45 and 51 cps for the next 3 years makes pretty good sense to me.
What's a fair multiple on next year's earnings?...maybe 12 ? That suggests fair value is $5.40 around the base it built earlier this year.
I'm not currently a holder but I reckon it's not a bad place to invest for the long term...just when to reinvest and at what price...those are the real questions. Hmmm
Heard there was no very little Te Reo in the speeches
"all the Ossies will soon move to NZ"
only after NZ applies to become a state of Australia....
as Aus heats up they will develop more solar power than NZ and reach NET Zero sooner...
They will live underground and make water from sea water .....
HLG will be the leading retailer in smart cooler clothing for the NetZero generation...
Retail UP in NZ!!!
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/kiwis-boost-retail-spending-in-lead-up-to-christmas/67UTVEPPHNFVBBRXXTHSE23LPQ/
lets hope the Aussi's Shop till they Drop.... probably from heat exhaustion but ...
For Bar Review
We upgrade Hallenstein Glasson (HLG) to NEUTRAL from UNDERPERFORM as HLG is trading in-line with our valuation after a recent derating in the share price, reflecting market acceptance of a more subdued near-term earnings outlook. At its annual shareholder meeting, HLG's 19-week FY24 trading update (to early December) indicated group revenue declined versus the prior period, noting a slight improvement since the last update in October. This is in-line with our thesis that HLG is affected by challenging macroeconomic conditions for consumers, and market expectations have softened. HLG now trades near the middle of its retailer peer group, and in-line with its long-run median PE multiple. While we still expect further mid-single-digit year on year revenue declines through to mid-2025, and acknowledge a very challenging near-term operating environment, risk-reward appears more balanced as: (1) self-help actions are available, and (2) the Glassons Australia expansion opportunity remains intact.
What's changed?
Earnings: FY24–FY26 underlying NPAT slightly reduces by -2% to -4%, primarily driven by foreign currency movements
Target price: Reduces to NZ$5.40 from NZ$5.45 (~-1%), reflecting near-term earnings reductions
Rating: Upgrade to NEUTRAL from UNDERPERFORM.
Revenue decline in-line with our expectations
Group revenue for the first 19 weeks of FY24 dropped -4.7% (FB 1H24E: ~-4%) versus the prior period as consumer discretionary spending was affected by cost of living challenges. This theme is consistent with ANZ retailer peers' performance. Trading has improved from the start of the year when a warm winter affected seasonal product sales. HLG noted a more positive reaction to the new season range but uncertainty remains high, with �������three of the four largest trading weeks of the year yet to go.
Gross margin resilience primarily supported by supplier renegotiations
HLG noted an improvement in the year-to-date group gross margin despite a higher USD exchange rate. This was driven primarily by: (1) supplier negotiations, and (2) normalising freight costs. The gross margin recovery appeared to be relatively stronger in the NZ businesses (Glassons NZ, Hallenstein Brothers). We anticipate gross margin pressure reduces marginally as forward exchange rates have improved slightly since our last earnings revisions, but a lower NZDUSD forward rate is a net negative for margin growth.
More imputation credits going forward
A reallocation of intercompany charges should increase imputation credits available for NZ tax resident shareholders (we estimate an average ~75% imputation rate over FY24–FY26).
HLG now trades in-line with our valuation
We upgrade HLG to NEUTRAL from UNDERPERFORM. Following recent share price weakness, HLG now trades in-line with our valuation and the market appears to be more realistic in its expectations for near-term earnings. Further downside risk to revenue in the near term may be partly offset by: (1) a faster than expected roll-out of Glassons Australia, noting a management target of ~50 stores within three to four years versus our forecast for 44 stores by FY27; (2) Hallenstein Brothers showing signs of a turnaround after adjusting its product range; and (3) improved gross margins due to Glassons supplier renegotiations (which is offsetting NZD weakness), and normalising freight costs.
Our target price reduces marginally to NZ$5.40 (~-1% from NZ$5.45), reflecting a -1% reduction in both our relative multiple and DCF valuations, both driven by slight earnings downgrades.
Thanks for sharing GWD. Fair call from Forbar and as I noted yesterday, I also see fair value at $5.40
Interesting to note their targetted store expansion with Glassons Au which underpins my thesis of ongoing growth there. 70-80% of the value of the group lies in Glassons Au in my opinion.
Where do they see the dividend level for the next 3 years given the faster than expected store expansion?
Quote from: Basil on Dec 13, 2023, 09:05 AMThanks for sharing GWD. Fair call from Forbar and as I noted yesterday, I also see fair value at $5.40
Interesting to note their targetted store expansion with Glassons Au which underpins my thesis of ongoing growth there. 70-80% of the value of the group lies in Glassons Au in my opinion.
Where do they see the dividend level for the next 3 years given the faster than expected store expansion?
I don't know about div level in next three years but if they keep paying me 20c to 24c divs every 6 months then I am happy with that, which is somewhere between 8-9% yld. Even at 5.80 still around about 8% yld and toped up more this morning at 5.39. Just a waiting game now to a trading update for the Christmas, boxing day and new year, in about 9 weeks time then another nice div about 7 weeks later.
Where do they see the dividend level for the next 3 years given the faster than expected store expansion?
Financials:Aug 23A 24E 25E 26E
Rev (NZ$m) 409.7 397.1 420.3 448.4
NPAT* (NZ$m) 32.0 22.9 25.7 28.8
EPS* (NZc) 53.6 38.3 43.1 48.3
DPS (NZc) 48.0 34.5 39.0 43.5
Imputation (%) 75 75 75 75
Suppose chart represents what they meant by sustainable profits
0000hlg.JPG
Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 13, 2023, 12:34 PMSuppose chart represents what they meant by sustainable profits
0000hlg.JPG
Oh dear - is this a downward channel you charted?
brilliant chart by winner() .. and yes looks to be retracing..
If you look back at the SP versus DIV over the past 15 years or more you can see some pretty high Gross percentages as the stock becomes a value trap and then bounces...
its always been a trade and cyclical stock.
I see it as a growth stock in a rising uptrend but with strong cyclical aspects to it along the way.
It'll break up to new all-time high's in the $8+ range one day but that day won't be any year soon.
WOW HLG powered away today up 25c, had a funny feeling it was a bit oversold the other day. When I get over this covid thing will go and visit a couple of there shops to see how they going, might even buy some gift vouches for my nieces and nephews from the big oversized div I got today. They make good Christmas presents so say one of the big wigs at the AGM last Tuesday 8)
Quote from: Basil on Dec 14, 2023, 04:18 PMI see it as a growth stock in a rising uptrend but with strong cyclical aspects to it along the way.
It'll break up to new all-time high's in the $8+ range one day but that day won't be any year soon.
Not too worried about $8. I like little steps maybe back to $5.80 to $6 first.
Quote from: seaweed on Dec 15, 2023, 05:37 PMWOW HLG powered away today up 25c, had a funny feeling it was a bit oversold the other day. When I get over this covid thing will go and visit a couple of there shops to see how they going, might even buy some gift vouches for my nieces and nephews from the big oversized div I got today. They make good Christmas presents so say one of the big wigs at the AGM last Tuesday 8)
Jeepers you've got it again. I've warned you before about kissing too many girls at those dances you go too ;)
Good finish to day recovering to $5.20
Thought going to 5 bucks at one stage ....maybe early in New Year .....withdrew my buy in case it did a seeweed and got hit while out ......and went down further
Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 29, 2023, 04:05 PMGood finish to day recovering to $5.20
Thought going to 5 bucks at one stage ....maybe early in New Year .....withdrew my buy in case it did a seeweed and got hit while out ......and went down further
Bought back some Turners today on 10.7 times forecast FY25 earnings.
Just a thought for 2024. Put that same multiple on HLG which is also a well-managed company based on Forsyth Barr's 39 cps gives an indication of where HLG would also be a good buy. Unfortunately, the math's suggests that's more than a dollar south of where it closed today, $4.17 :o and their FY25 doesn't start until August 2024. Quick glance at the chart since index inclusion is not a pretty picture either. Keeping my fingers well away from the buy button on this one while the downtrend remains intact.
Basil said ... Quick glance at the chart since index inclusion is not a pretty picture
Jeez, hadn't really noticed how bad it is .....down 25% from highs ....and heading sub 5 bucks
IMG_5592.jpeg
Pretty ugly, especially the last month. Started December @ $6.05 and ended down 85 cents so those buying for the 24 cent divvy have found out that was not a very good idea !
F24 earnings (and therefore divie) going to disappoint the market per se ...ramifications and impact on share price anybody's guess
I think you're going to be dead right and it won't be pretty. HLG won't report FY24 results until the last few days of Sept 2024 so in terms of portfolio allocation its almost a case of being persona non grata until at least then. Buying for the April divvy looks likely to be as "successful" a strategy as buying for the December one was. (one step forward and three or four steps back).
I agree it probably is worth $5.40 in the medium term that Forsyth Barr think but no saying it won't go 20-30% south of there first, in the next year or so as a result of the ongoing recession. Putting Turners FY25 forward metrics on this and arriving at $4.17 was a very sobering reality check for me. Who's to say which is the better managed company? Both well managed, but Todd has 16 or so years of experience at Turners and we have a new CEO for Hollensteins Glassons so who knows how the N.Z. operations of the business will go in the future? That said, James Glasson does a fabulous job with Glassons Au, there's no disputing that and they have a strong balance sheet and best of class stock turn. It's going to be an interesting 2024 for HLG. I'll be watching closely from the sidelines for now.
under 5 soon ?
Quote from: Waltzing on Jan 03, 2024, 02:50 PMunder 5 soon ?
Seeweed not going to let that happen
Is that like moment in the head lights ?
and its not so KIA but RK.....
someone apparently bought at 2.75 ... and must have done well i suppose that was the resident Master of the Market...
My concern would be that HLG has broken a level ($5.30) that should have offered up support (see my Momentum Investing thread for discussion on resistance and support levels). So in the absence of positive surprises, the momentum now is likely to be down. I would also be wary of the upcoming Death Cross (where the 50 day MA goes below the 200 day MA).
I'd also be concerned about the fact that it failed to catch the Santa Rally over the last 2 months, whereas other retailers like UNI, PMV and LOV did, indicating that this is not a retailer problem but a HLG problem.
HLG.png
Yes and its an AUSSI market stock ... still its lost that left to right before and offered some very good buying in the past... Its not the first time this has happened.
Some stocks just have repeat patterns built into them...
How about 4.5 by July next year...
Yahoo says 50MA at 577 is below 200MA at 590
Already had that Death Cross?io
I don't think there's any definitive answer to be stated right at this point at the start of a new year as to where the bottom might be. Just follow the chart and wait for a bottoming process to appear and a new uptrend to start forming, (no sign of that happening at this stage). Happy to watch closely from the sidelines for now.
a portfolio holding at NOV 2006 would now be under water .....
it looks like on the chart its breaking down below 5 if you draw the pastel line from 2019...
if you pastel from 2016 its almost on the line of support.
Quote from: KW on Jan 04, 2024, 02:43 PMMy concern would be that HLG has broken a level ($5.30) that should have offered up support (see my Momentum Investing thread for discussion on resistance and support levels). So in the absence of positive surprises, the momentum now is likely to be down. I would also be wary of the upcoming Death Cross (where the 50 day MA goes below the 200 day MA).
I'd also be concerned about the fact that it failed to catch the Santa Rally over the last 2 months, whereas other retailers like UNI, PMV and LOV did, indicating that this is not a retailer problem but a HLG problem.
HLG.png
Hi KW. Hope you had a good Christmas and New year. I am interested in the HLG Santa Rally. Could you please send me the link or information on this Santa Rally. Thank you in advance seaweed.
Quote from: seaweed on Jan 08, 2024, 10:21 AMHi KW. Hope you had a good Christmas and New year. I am interested in the HLG Santa Rally. Could you please send me the link or information on this Santa Rally. Thank you in advance seaweed.
The "santa rally" is the big rally that global stock markets experienced during Nov and Dec last year, driving many bourses off the low on Oct 30 to hit new all time highs by the end of Dec. Even the NZX participated a bit, although still far from hitting a new high. So when a company goes in the opposite direction of a major market move, its a sign of extreme weakness.
Where have all the sellers gone?... Long time passing. Where have all the sellers gone? ... Long time ago....... Where have all the young girls gone?.....Off to Glassons to buy more clothes.....Oh, When will you ever learn? Oh, When will you ever learn?.... Where have all the young men gone?...Long time passing ....Where have all the young men gone?...Long time ago They off to Hallensteins to buy more clothes. Oh, when will you ever learn?...Oh, when will you ever learn?....To buy more shares when they are low.
Quote from: seaweed on Jan 08, 2024, 04:52 PMWhere have all the sellers gone?... Long time passing. Where have all the sellers gone? ... Long time ago....... Where have all the young girls gone?.....Off to Glassons to buy more clothes.....Oh, When will you ever learn? Oh, When will you ever learn?.... Where have all the young men gone?...Long time passing ....Where have all the young men gone?...Long time ago They off to Hallensteins to buy more clothes. Oh, when will you ever learn?...Oh, when will you ever learn?....To buy more shares when they are low.
I think there is a lot of truth in your last line. Only issues is - you only will know with the benefit of hindsight when the shares have been low.
Lets face it - HLG is, while well managed, neither a FPH nor a MFT, nor any essential infrastructure (all demanding and often receiving a high quality premium), and HLG is currently PE wise at best fairly priced (forward PE = 12).
While young people tend to spend their money frequently unwise, lets face it: nobody really needs cheap rags (even if they look good). Nothing happens if everybody is just wearing their clothes another season (or two), while the impact of not paying the rent or the mortgage or the food could be quite dramatic.
I wish you well with your song-based investment strategy, but must admit - this would be 2 hot 4 me.
Looks like a pretty good base is forming... Its had some long runs before moving up before.. but the next 2 reports for all retail stocks are going to probably not be that great. Its tittering though to the down side for a while...
Stasis at the moment directionless.
HLG_2024-01-10_08-52-15.png
YUP ...that next market update no doubt WInner will be all over it and AUSSI stats.
Quote from: Waltzing on Jan 10, 2024, 10:04 AMYUP ...that next market update no doubt WInner will be all over it and AUSSI stats.
In NZ Retail Watch said December clothing stores sales were down 6% on Dec 2022
HLG prob down even more ....first 19 weeks (to November)?) sales were down 4.7% so things not getting better
Looking a bit ominious this year for the Groups profitability
In saying that a share price of $5.50 is ludicrous ..high thst is.
A GAP year coming up then for retail...
ANZ cardholders analysis of activity for December in NZ
Sharon says ...... clothing retailers continues to paint one of the grimmest pictures across the card spend data set ....sales lower than last year
I'd say things not looking good for HLG in F24 ."need to revise my forecast methinks
I think what happened to the market in Oz will be of more significance to HLG.
Quote from: Pierre on Jan 10, 2024, 05:35 PMI think what happened to the market in Oz will be of more significance to HLG.
CPI in Australia out today, 4.3%. There is deflation in the price of clothing https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/monthly-consumer-price-index-indicator/nov-2023
"The most significant price rises were Housing (+6.6%), Food and non-alcoholic beverages (+4.6%), Insurance and financial services (+8.8%) and Alcohol and tobacco (+6.4%)."
Drinking up as its geting hotter... dont forget to hydrate....
Thanks for that reminding one to read the economic stats in summer is hard work...
Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 04, 2024, 08:02 AMSeeweed not going to let that happen
:)Sold some and then bought a few back with all the down talk last couple of weeks. Got some this morning on open but only half my order. There is 18 other buyers out there. Four weeks before the update.
Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 10, 2024, 03:41 PMANZ cardholders analysis of activity for December in NZ
Sharon says ...... clothing retailers continues to paint one of the grimmest pictures across the card spend data set ....sales lower than last year
I'd say things not looking good for HLG in F24 ."need to revise my forecast methinks
Jeez, since I revised my profit forecast 'downwards' the share price has rocketed up
Oh well, as Peter says you can't predict the mood of the market and share price movements
Oz retail stats December month
Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing fell 5.7%
Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 30, 2024, 02:44 PMOz retail stats December month
Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing fell 5.7%
What is your forecast for HLG div? Maybe a 15% to 20% drop?
Quote from: seaweed on Jan 30, 2024, 11:51 PMWhat is your forecast for HLG div? Maybe a 15% to 20% drop?
Full year ~24 cents
April divvy 15-18cps in my opinion.
Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 31, 2024, 02:22 PMFull year ~24 cents
Wow that is a 50% drop. I am hoping for a 18c to 20c div. for April.
I'm thinking that the April divvy will be 18-20c, with an outside chance that it may stay at 24c. We know that the first 19 weeks sales were down 4.7% but gross margins were ahead of the previous year, so perhaps NP will not be down as much as some think. And the Black Friday sales period went well apparently. So I think the HLG management will try and maintain the interim divvy as much as possible. End of year divvy will tell the real story but if OZ operations hold up then 40c for the year is possible.
April divie could be in excess of 20 cents ...irrespective of profit they will resort to the old 'we have a strong balance sheet and confidence in future performance' trick ......and so it will be 20 cents
But can't see it as I reckon half year earnings could be 20/21 cents per share
I think you're not far off the mark with that earnings estimate Winner. They have paid out 100% of their earnings in the past but you have to wonder how that would currently fit with their stated intention to develop a lot of new stores in Australia in the next few years.
Quote from: Basil on Feb 02, 2024, 02:50 PMI think you're not far off the mark with that earnings estimate Winner. They have paid out 100% of their earnings in the past but you have to wonder how that would currently fit with their stated intention to develop a lot of new stores in Australia in the next few years.
HLG have a long history of expanding it's footprint whilst maintaining dividends (ie the growth has been self funded) so I'm surprised by the idea that opening 2-3(?) stores in OZ this year will have such a big effect (EPS cut by over 50%)?
I may be wrong, but I really can't see divvys been cut anywhere near what is being suggested. That would be a huge dent in the image of HLG being a strong, consistent dividend payer and the SP would plunge accordingly.
Winner talking half year earnings mate.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HALLENSTEIN-GLASSON-HOLDI-6495564/finances/
eps estimate for next 3 years 38, 43 and 48 cps
dps estimate for next 3 years 34.5, 39 and 43.5 cps.
I'm sticking with my estimate of April divvy being 15-18 cps.
Don't hold at present but as stated recently I think the shares are about fair value at $5.40.
Cost of doing business always on the rise. Minimum wage going up to just north of $23 per hour on 1 April, just one example.
Quote from: Basil on Feb 02, 2024, 03:40 PMWinner talking half year earnings mate.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HALLENSTEIN-GLASSON-HOLDI-6495564/finances/
eps estimate for next 3 years 38, 43 and 48 cps
dps estimate for next 3 years 34.5, 39 and 43.5 cps.
I'm sticking with my estimate of April divvy being 15-18 cps.
Don't hold at present but as stated recently I think the shares are about fair value at $5.40.
Cost of doing business always on the rise. Minimum wage going up to just north of $23 per hour on 1 April, just one example.
Ah, my mistake. I still reckon that HLG will pretty much maintain full year divvy - perhaps 40c. We'll see. Likewise no longer holding, but might buy in for both the divvy and the growth prospects if OZ expansion goes well.
Quote from: LoungeLizard on Feb 02, 2024, 04:01 PMAh, my mistake. I still reckon that HLG will pretty much maintain full year divvy - perhaps 40c. We'll see. Likewise no longer holding, but might buy in for both the divvy and the growth prospects if OZ expansion goes well.
The biggest problem I have with HLG is TRA. Both very good well managed companies but put HLG in the same FY25 prospective PE as TRA and it comes to $4.20. In relative terms TRA is much cheaper and just as well run. The other issue is this. TRA has an eps CAGR of 7% per annum over the last decade whereas HLG doesn't and is more cyclical, less resilient in a downturn and is growing slower so to my mind in terms of a retail stock, if you can call TRA that, it's still exceptionally cheap taking into account their proven growth rate. TRA closed today at the same price today as index inclusion. Hard to keep a good stock down eh :) HLG on the other hand is still a long way below their index inclusion price of (from memory), $6.85 and that was May 2023, 8 months ago!
Picking the interim divy a bit more challenging than picking EPS, given the interim divy has historically been more volatile and flexed up and down by mgmt.
FY18: 20dps (100% imputed), 78.8% payout ratio
FY19: 20dps (100% imputed), 74.4% payout ratio
FY20: 15dps (100% imputed), 58% payout ratio
FY21: 23dps (100% imputed), 69.1% payout ratio
FY22: 18dps (56.1% imputed), 90.1% payout ratio
FY23: 24dps (53.1% imputed), 68.7% payout ratio
1H dividend payout ratio average: 73.2%
It's my guess dividends will be imputed roughly 75% with that tracking down marginally over time given the mix of trading, based on the new transfer pricing policy.
Obviously some funky covid impacted years in there, but shows mgmt use their discretion in 1H more so than in 2H. HLG tend to payout 113.8% in the 2H (and have stuck to 24cps in recent years, though I think that is under threat), bringing average payout over the last 6 years to 90.3% (as low as 83.8% in FY21, as high as 98% in FY22).
As W69 says they have surplus cash they could tuck into to support payout. They ended FY23 with $32.5m, less the FY23 final div of $14.3m, is $18.2m...plus the net cash they generate in 1H FY24, so will continue have a high cash at balance date to payout for a div. The store opening regime that they've signaled this year has been pretty muted...a hallenstein pop up store at Rabina / gold coast & closed the blenheim glassons store in 1H. I dont think any new AU stores in 1H but in 2h last confirmed for 2 new.
HLG opened around 0 net new stores in FY23, with closures and openings offsetting each other. But they spent a truck load in capex, with the capital consumer being refurbs and expansions. $14.8m in capex, up from $8.3m the prior year. Refurbed 13 stores in FY23, 8 in oz and 5 in NZ, with 11 of those refurbs taking place in the 2H. As at the AGM was aware of 5 refurbs in 1H (but these things will change).
There is a bigger story here on the refurbs than most appreciate. Obviously a retail outlet needs to be refreshed every so often (and a retailer will even contract up to how often they refurb within the term of their tenancy at a mall), but HLG's approach over the last 5 years has been more meaningful. First its gone hand in hand with a repositioning of the Glassons brand, which was very successful. The second was to increase the physical footprint where possible, taking on adjacent properties or shifting existing stores to nearby locations with bigger footprints. More stock and product was available to be sold and the shopping experience enhanced, and sales per average store rose as result (unfortunately it appears incremental costs per ave store have risen faster than incremental revenue in the most recent period, per below).
The group has been using the same approach in aussie and pushing it into Hallenstein and Glassons NZ stores, but with less success from what I understand.
But, as always, topline is only a part of the story. That enlarged footprint carries an extra rental expense, staffing expense, utilities insurance expense, etc. I think it wise to ponder too for those recent historic refurbs where they have expanded the footprint - and were executed at the peak of the cycle in Australia - may have triggered an increase in the rental price per square metre of store already under lease. Reason why I wonder this - in 2H FY23 - their all up lease/rental expense (expensed ROU depreciation + expensed lease interest + expensed short term rentals) per average store increased 14% year on year. So you have to hope that mgmt got their business cases right for these newly expanded stores that they've invested so heavily in, because while its increased revenue - 2H FY23 revenue was the highest on record - its 2H earnings were likewise lower than all the previous 5 financial years, and lowest NPAT margins over that period - an unusual combination. Some of that will be from margin (FX and freight) and natural inflation, but a lot of that will be because they grew the footprint and expanded their cost base over and above the rate of industry inflation - only in my view, of course.....
re the last line above - rather than be definitive that the excess growth in CODB/per store above inflation was due to growth in the footprint - should just put it down as one of the likely possible causes. From the outside it's always pretty tough to know. There was a lot of business building going on last year - a 2nd distribution centre in Australia (which will be in lease expense), the appointment of a CFO for the first time, recruitment fees for a new group CEO, etc. Necessary things to accommodate future growth but mute short term profitability.
and one thing I really like about HLG/BGP is they don't normalise the numbers or even shout out some abnormal costs ie the extra consultancy fees associated with reviewing the new distribution centre, recruitment fees for new executives. That contrasts sharply with their WHS/KMD/MHJ et all compatriots. I think its safe to assume there may have been some one off type costs in the 2h that won't roll forward.
Quote from: Basil on Feb 02, 2024, 03:40 PMDon't hold at present but as stated recently I think the shares are about fair value at $5.40.
Cost of doing business always on the rise. Minimum wage going up to just north of $23 per hour on 1 April, just one example.
Does NZ still have penal rates? ie. time and a half on Saturdays, double time on Sundays. I remember overhearing a kid on a tram in Australia years ago talking about how she made $40 an hour working in a shoe store because she worked weekends so got penal rates and casual loadings. Imagine that now the minimum wage is $23 an hour instead of $17.
Quote from: Fiordland Moose on Feb 02, 2024, 11:07 PMThere is a bigger story here on the refurbs than most appreciate. Obviously a retail outlet needs to be refreshed every so often (and a retailer will even contract up to how often they refurb within the term of their tenancy at a mall), but HLG's approach over the last 5 years has been more meaningful. First its gone hand in hand with a repositioning of the Glassons brand, which was very successful. The second was to increase the physical footprint where possible, taking on adjacent properties or shifting existing stores to nearby locations with bigger footprints. More stock and product was available to be sold and the shopping experience enhanced, and sales per average store rose as result (unfortunately it appears incremental costs per ave store have risen faster than incremental revenue in the most recent period, per below).
The group has been using the same approach in aussie and pushing it into Hallenstein and Glassons NZ stores, but with less success from what I understand.
But, as always, topline is only a part of the story. That enlarged footprint carries an extra rental expense, staffing expense, utilities insurance expense, etc. I think it wise to ponder too for those recent historic refurbs where they have expanded the footprint - and were executed at the peak of the cycle in Australia - may have triggered an increase in the rental price per square metre of store already under lease. Reason why I wonder this - in 2H FY23 - their all up lease/rental expense (expensed ROU depreciation + expensed lease interest + expensed short term rentals) per average store increased 14% year on year. So you have to hope that mgmt got their business cases right for these newly expanded stores that they've invested so heavily in, because while its increased revenue - 2H FY23 revenue was the highest on record - its 2H earnings were likewise lower than all the previous 5 financial years, and lowest NPAT margins over that period - an unusual combination. Some of that will be from margin (FX and freight) and natural inflation, but a lot of that will be because they grew the footprint and expanded their cost base over and above the rate of industry inflation - only in my view, of course.....
They seem to be moving away from this. They have surrendered the large flagship store in Chch CBD, and moved Glassons into a store next door which is one third the size (they effectively swapped with Mecca) while Hallensteins has been moved to a separate store which used to be Lululemon's but they moved out to a space that was double in size.
https://www.thepress.co.nz/nz-news/350070353/big-brands-vie-spots-city-mall-fills
Quote from: KW on Feb 05, 2024, 10:46 AMThey seem to be moving away from this. They have surrendered the large flagship store in Chch CBD, and moved Glassons into a store next door which is one third the size (they effectively swapped with Mecca) while Hallensteins has been moved to a separate store which used to be Lululemon's but they moved out to a space that was double in size.
https://www.thepress.co.nz/nz-news/350070353/big-brands-vie-spots-city-mall-fills
aye I saw that - probably a more specific thing to CHCH/NZ. across last year, particularly in AU, they extended quite a few stores. I'm confident Sqm per store has increased.
re penalty rates, it's much more an australian thing.
https://legalvision.co.nz/employment/do-i-have-to-pay-penal-rates/
RetailWatch data shows clothing store sales for January down 4% on January last year ..NZ this is for
Be interesting what HLG come up with as to how first half went
Maybe later this week?
Quote from: winner (n) on Feb 13, 2024, 11:56 AMRetailWatch data shows clothing store sales for January down 4% on January last year ..NZ this is for
Be interesting what HLG come up with as to how first half went
Maybe later this week?
Yes you probably right. I'm picking tomorrow for update. Hope the cattle don't get too spooked, but then most of us here and on ST know what to expect so hopefully not too many surprises. If they do get spooked I am ready to jump in and grab at any oversold shares. Paying a good yld at over 8% much better than my 5.2% in the bank. There are now more Glasson stores in Aussi than NZ, so yeah looking forward to the Aussi store results.
Amazing update from HLG
Sales about the same as pcp and profit up
I should not have thought the worst
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/426618/413101.pdf
Quote from: winner (n) on Feb 22, 2024, 08:56 AMAmazing update from HLG
Sales about the same as pcp and profit up
I should not have thought the worst
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/426618/413101.pdf
Not to worry, it is hard to forecast sometimes but am relieved in this climate. Another 24c div heading our way. Time to top up again for the mighty 8% + yld 8)
Sales down 5% first 4 months
Ending up flat for 6 months is truly amazing
Headlines in media re retail didn't mean much eh
Or maybe new outfits to go and see Taylor helped
Shareholders should be really pleased with such a resilient outcome. Good observation Winner. Summer sales must have been very strong this year compared to last. Perhaps the fact that we're enjoying proper summer weather this year is a contributing factor ?
Terrific result and further evidence if needed as to how good HLG's management are in delivering for shareholders through thick and thin.
Quote from: winner (n) on Feb 22, 2024, 10:48 AMSales down 5% first 4 months
Ending up flat for 6 months is truly amazing
Universal Stores (UNI) just reported the same thing.
"While FY24 YTD US LFL sales have been negative, there have been encouraging signs of improvement as the half progressed. As outlined in the trading update (below), the Group has seen this improving sales trend continue into the first 7 weeks of the second half of FY24"
Also Lovisa (LOV)
"Comparable store sales down 4.4% on HY23. Trading for the first 7 weeks of the second half of FY24 saw comparable store sales for this period up 0.3% on
the same time last year"
Insatiable demand from Tay Tay fans to try and look cool while they party.
Pretty sure Winner is a closet fan ;D
Aren't we all.?..lol
Quote from: Basil on Feb 22, 2024, 04:25 PMInsatiable demand from Tay Tay fans to try and look cool while they party.
Pretty sure Winner is a closet fan ;D
Spotify has NEVER NEVER made me endure this Taylor....even in random mode
Is she any good
They reckon this Era's tour she's doing is the highest grossing tour of all time for anyone or any band...forget how many billion gross sales they said.
Anyway back to HLG. Interesting that it's one of the very few retailers that have been able to tread water with their gross sales and profit while almost everyone else sinks. Such a shame that treading water really means going backwards in real terms with inflation at ~ 5%. Nevertheless, they're weathering the retail headwinds very well.
Quote from: Basil on Feb 22, 2024, 04:25 PMInsatiable demand from Tay Tay fans to try and look cool while they party.
Pretty sure Winner is a closet fan ;D
That makes two of us. I am also a closet fan of Tay Tay and incorporate one of her video moves into my dance routines. HLG sp looks to be in a slow uptrend in the last 8 weeks and might have something to do with....
Be interesting to see how Oz and NZ have performed in first half
All retail indicators in NZ suggest clothing stores are doing it hard ...harder than other sectors. Expect a bad NZ result o reckon
So Oz must have done bloody well to keep the groups head above water
Quote from: winner (n) on Mar 11, 2024, 08:49 AMBe interesting to see how Oz and NZ have performed in first half
All retail indicators in NZ suggest clothing stores are doing it hard ...harder than other sectors. Expect a bad NZ result o reckon
So Oz must have done bloody well to keep the groups head above water
True ... and don't forget the temu effect - they sell the same stuff HLG sells (and much more), produced probably in the same factories HLG is sourcing its stuff from. They deliver their goods often in less than a week, same quality, just cheaper. I recon HLG will feel a big hit on its online sales.
https://www.temu.com/nz/c/womens-clothing-o4-28.html
HLG share price heading back to $7 plus by looks of it
People paying up to buy the pending dividend.
Quote from: winner (n) on Mar 13, 2024, 11:38 AMHLG share price heading back to $7 plus by looks of it
Yes it was on $5.10c at 10.30am on Wednesday 3/1/24 and closed at 5.22 the same day and been going up ever since and with all the negative talk with retail recently. Did you happen to buy into the 5.10 to 5.40s club?
Quote from: Basil on Mar 13, 2024, 01:29 PMPeople paying up to buy the pending dividend.
Good aye Basil, wink wink nudge nudge say no more ;) ;) ;D
Half year tomorrow.
Even though we know result they'll say what divie is going to be
Comment about trading in Feb/Mar should be positive
All in all share price should have a good day tomorrow .....mightn't reach 7 bucks though lol
That'll happen later in year
Quote from: winner (n) on Mar 27, 2024, 09:46 AMHalf year tomorrow.
Even though we know result they'll say what divie is going to be
Comment about trading in Feb/Mar should be positive
All in all share price should have a good day tomorrow .....mightn't reach 7 bucks though lol
That'll happen later in year
You confident about that, I'd have a bet that it won't reach $7 by year end along with FPH not reaching $35 by then either, make it a double bet, half on each.
Make it a bet of a decent bottle of old scotch on each and I'll hold the bet and promise not to drink it ;D
Agree...very unlikely either of those shares will achieve those lofty prices. That said, HLG's share price recovery has been a bit surprising given the very well-known cost of living challenges consumers are facing.
Quote from: Basil on Mar 27, 2024, 12:45 PMMake it a bet of a decent bottle of old scotch on each and I'll hold the bet and promise not to drink it ;D
Agree...very unlikely either of those shares will achieve those lofty prices. That said, HLG's share price recovery has been a bit surprising given the very well-known cost of living challenges consumers are facing.
Not being a whisky drinker ill settle for a couple of bottles of Baileys or Ouzo, you in winner?
Quote from: Breezy on Mar 27, 2024, 01:00 PMNot being a whisky drinker ill settle for a couple of bottles of Baileys or Ouzo, you in winner?
You should not encourage betting ......'investing' is bad enough
Quote from: winner (n) on Mar 27, 2024, 01:26 PMYou should encourage betting ......'investing' is bad enough
Give you a break from betting on the horses and greyhounds.
Wow ... great start to 2nd half of year
Group sales for the first seven weeks +8.3% ahead of the same period last year.
Along with a 24 cent divie this news should put a rocket under the share price
Looks to have been widely anticipated by the market. Interesting that such a really strong and unusual increase in gross profit, (up 240 bps), was all eaten up with the increasing cost of doing business. Dividend only 45% imputed v analyst expectations of 75% imputation.
Good increase in sales for the new season v PCP but it was a very weak second half last year.
Sales up 1.4% year to date now, (down 3.3% in inflation adjusted terms).
Its crystal clear that the cost of doing business is rising at a rate substantially higher than sales. Hopefully once the cost-of-living crisis is over this will come back into balance, but I think the share price has already front run that expectation so what if it doesn't happen?
Grassona AU sales up $4.2m on last year but profit down $2.6m in spite of improved gross margin. No doubt what they have done in transferring some cost to Australia has some bearing on this.
Nonetheless Glassons AU sales still on the rise and they are still gaining market share.
Not spectacular stuff but pretty solid gains
Market share Oz clothing stores below
IMG_5720.png
Excellent result in tough trading conditions. NZ still trailing behind but HLG still managing to increase their footprint in OZ, which is the key thing. Another juicy dividend for keepers of the faith ;D
(48 / 0.874) / 640 = 8.6% gross yield.
Assumptions.
1. Share price = $6.40
2. Final divvy 24 cps also imputed at 45%.
First half profit normally about 55% of annual total so if they can do $38.4m for the year that's 64 cents per share and the FY24 PE is 10.
Above metrics are pretty good but the rate of increase in CODB is the fly in the ointment in my opinion.
Fatter margins and 'Swiftie-mania' help Hallenstein Glasson's bottom line
It's all due to Taylor and Pink
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/retail/fatter-margins-and-swiftie-mania-help-hallenstein-glassons-bottom-line
Probably paywalled
https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/swifties-boost-february-retail-spending-amid-sector-struggles-20240328-p5ffxd
Clothing, footwear and personal accessory retailing rose 4.2 per cent and department store spending rose 2.3 per cent over the month, which the ABS said was connected to Swiftie spending. (https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/the-economic-boost-from-taylor-swift-is-a-lot-smaller-than-you-think-20240223-p5f7aj)
"Fashion and accessory retailers told us offerings of Taylor Swift-inspired outfits and related do-it-yourself accessories added to turnover in February," Mr Dorber said.
Retail spending rose 0.3 per cent over the month, according to Australian Bureau of Statistics retail data out on Thursday, while underlying growth, which strips out effects of the Eras Tour (https://www.afr.com/companies/tourism/swift-lift-domestic-travellers-splashed-170m-during-taylor-s-tour-20240308-p5fazb), was almost stagnant.
Retail Watch sales data show March month total sales down 0.5% on last year
Clothing sales down 6.7%. ......furniture, home building supplies and bookshops didn't do too well either
Suppose something to do with Easter
Quote from: winner (n) on Apr 09, 2024, 09:14 AMRetail Watch sales data show March month total sales down 0.5% on last year
Clothing sales down 6.7%. ......only building supplies and bookshops were worse
Suppose something to do with Easter
That will be all the now broke Swifties lol
Stats nz retail card spend says much the same as Retail Watch in that apparel sales for March month down 6% on last year
As HLG nz sales are a pretty constant share of these numbers hard to see Nz doing much for the Group
Just as well Glassons AU continue to grow ...let's hope so
Quote from: winner (n) on Apr 12, 2024, 11:42 AMStats nz retail card spend says much the same as Retail Watch in that apparel sales for March month down 6% on last year
As HLG nz sales are a pretty constant share of these numbers hard to see Nz doing much for the Group
Just as well Glassons AU continue to grow ...let's hope so
seaweed writing from Big Bear CA. You right, thanks to the Aussi stores, still think it is a good company but to hard to trade and I am a trader, so I'm out. Good luck to long holders, it is a good long hold but have been in long enough.
Long time to the next dividend. N.Z. economy probably tracking a bit weaker than expected is how I see it.
Still happy to hold. Excellent yield and that isn't going to change much, if at all. SP has held up well and will head up to $6.50 again come next dividend. New stores opening in OZ - still a lot of growth opportunity there to more than compensate for NZ doldrums.
Quote from: seaweed on Apr 16, 2024, 10:47 AMseaweed writing from Big Bear CA. You right, thanks to the Aussi stores, still think it is a good company but to hard to trade and I am a trader, so I'm out. Good luck to long holders, it is a good long hold but have been in long enough.
Nice timing on getting out mate. Well done. Has absolutely tanked today without your support. You're a jetsetter and a trend setter. Looking forward to having you out on the boat again when you're back in N.Z. Headed back to low $5's arguably where it belongs?
Only 2000 shares traded today. And about 400 shares sold at 25c lower than the daily average, right on close of play. Hmmm....
Sydney womens clothes design said today another 12 months before the KANGAS go shopping till they drop...
chart is flat ... could stay her for a while one hopes... no dire news..
Inclusion in NZX50 is subject to passing ongoing liquidity tests. Hope it doesn't get booted out in due course due to lack of liquidity or share price tanking.
back to being a nice untidy chart and trade able then... not so bad news...
Quote from: Basil on Apr 16, 2024, 06:45 PMInclusion in NZX50 is subject to passing ongoing liquidity tests. Hope it doesn't get booted out in due course due to lack of liquidity or share price tanking.
Didn't you make somewhere around 5% in a couple of months from OCA getting booted from an index? Thought you'd be praying for another one of these situations.
Even if you're currently a shareholder of HLG (I haven't read any other posts), you should be happy to pick up more at a lower price right? That's how I felt about OCA anyway.
Sold out completely after NZX50 inclusion in early 2023 at $6.85. HLG too good a company to be booted out of the NZX50 index. Hope that doesn't happen. Wouldn't enjoy making money from that but would probably do it anyway lol
All a bit premature this talk of tanking and booted out of NZX50. Reality check - 2000 shares traded. Back up again tomorrow. Liquidity is a swings a roundabouts thing - SP surges up and down. Long term, solid dividend payer and forget the rest.
Remenber the old saying about not getting to attached to stocks....
Did not believe inflation would last like this and its going to stay for a while...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/16/powell-cites-lack-of-progress-this-year-in-reaching-feds-inflation-goal.html
we are in one of those periods where its work on your back office and your accounting models.....
wait for the sunny weather...
Long time until the next partially imputed dividend in December. Level of imputation credits likely to diminish over time with the ongoing growth in Aust profit relative to N Z
Good well managed company.
Still belive fair value is around $5.40.
Possibility of NZX50 exclusion is a risk to consider for 2025 either based on lack of liquidity or free market cap grounds. Ignore that risk at your peril. Inclusion and subsequent exclusion has happened before.
Happy to sit on the sidelines for now.
Plenty of others at greater risk of exclusion. HLG would not be first in line.
For those of us who have retired early, imputation credits are not an issue - I have heaps already that cannot be applied. Better to pay normal tax rates and claim it back. Horses for courses on that one.
There's not many companies that are a safe hold on the NZX, but HLG is one that shareholders can take the swings and roundabouts whilst still getting a good return. As has been noted before, HLG have an outstanding record of maintaining dividends through thick and thin and I don't see that changing. Plenty of growth to come in OZ I feel.
Happy to hold until the next divvy.
Pretty close to the bottom of the NZX50, position 48 last time I looked and that was based on a 6 month price average of $5.98. A possible fall into the low $5's if it was sustained for 6 months or so would probably make them a real chance for exclusion on free market cap grounds. Then there's the liquidity test as well. A sustained period of low liquidity is also a risk. I see these as 2025 risks but risks nonetheless anyone with a multiyear holding period needs to consider.
I have done more tax returns than I care to even think about in my 44 year career so I can reliably tell you that imputation credits matter for more than 99% of the investing public. You are definitely an outlier not caring about them. Frankly I can't even remember the last time I did a client's tax return where imputation credits didn't matter.
TRA has been more resilient than HLG through the difficulties of the last 4 years and have full imputation credits.
Agree otherwise that HLG is a well-managed company, has paid very reliable dividends over its history and has very good prospects for growth in Australia. N.Z. operations are pretty "doggy" though. At the right price I'd be happy to be a shareholder again.
You will know then, when you pay little or no actual tax, then imputation credits don't carry much benefit as for those with tax payments to apply them against. Excess imputation credits is unavoidable in my case - and I would suggest, for many retired folk, dabbling in shares. So, no - HLG being only partly imputed isn't an issue for me, in fact it's ideal.
Most retired folk are collecting National superannuation so are able to use imputation credits to offset their tax and get part of the PAYE they have paid on their superannuation refunded or they have RWT on interest that's been deducted by the bank and they use imputation credits to offset against that and get that partially refunded. Believe me, you are in a tiny minority if no situation applies to you whereby imputation credits are not helpful.
Anyway....back to HLG,, we will see where the share price settles this winter.
Quote from: Basil on Apr 17, 2024, 03:30 PMMost retired folk are collecting National superannuation so are able to use imputation credits to offset their tax and get part of the PAYE they have paid on their superannuation refunded. Believe me, you are in a tiny minority...I've probably done more tax returns in my lifetime than you've had hot dinners.
Believe me, I have a much clearer perspective on this given my professional experience than you do.
Anyway....back to HLG,, we will see where the share price settles this winter.
I'm not concerned with what "most" people do. I retired very early and I don't draw a pension. I find it interesting that you claim to know more about my tax affairs than I do. Typical hubris.
Quote from: LoungeLizard on Apr 17, 2024, 10:41 AMPlenty of others at greater risk of exclusion. HLG would not be first in line.
For those of us who have retired early, imputation credits are not an issue - I have heaps already that cannot be applied. Better to pay normal tax rates and claim it back. Horses for courses on that one.
There's not many companies that are a safe hold on the NZX, but HLG is one that shareholders can take the swings and roundabouts whilst still getting a good return. As has been noted before, HLG have an outstanding record of maintaining dividends through thick and thin and I don't see that changing. Plenty of growth to come in OZ I feel.
Happy to hold until the next divvy.
My biggest regret ever was selling my very large HLG holding in 2020 during Covid, that sale started a chain of events and bad decisions that ultimately cost me 10 yrs of gains which I am yet to make any headway getting back. Given the same circumstances again I would never have sold a single share. Such a great long term hold and if it ever gets back down near $4 again i would be all in in a heartbeat.
Quote from: Breezy on Apr 17, 2024, 03:47 PMMy biggest regret ever was selling my very large HLG holding in 2020 during Covid, that sale started a chain of events and bad decisions that ultimately cost me 10 yrs of gains which I am yet to make any headway getting back. Given the same circumstances again I would never have sold a single share. Such a great long term hold and if it ever gets back down near $4 again i would be all in in a heartbeat.
Been there. Held on to a share for years and then sold it just when it gains traction. Painful, I know.
HLG didn't skip a beat during the covid years - just kept paying, and increasing, dividends like it was business as usual. I think it's a solid hold, just ignore the chatter and keep banking those dividends. I'm afraid it's not going to be a $4 or even $5 stock now - $6 seems about right.
Quote from: LoungeLizard on Apr 17, 2024, 04:03 PMBeen there. Held on to a share for years and then sold it just when it gains traction. Painful, I know.
HLG didn't skip a beat during the covid years - just kept paying, and increasing, dividends like it was business as usual. I think it's a solid hold, just ignore the chatter and keep banking those dividends. I'm afraid it's not going to be a $4 or even $5 stock now - $6 seems about right.
They dropped a divvy in 2020 during Covid but resumed soon after.
Quote from: LoungeLizard on Apr 17, 2024, 03:37 PMI'm not concerned with what "most" people do. I retired very early and I don't draw a pension. I find it interesting that you claim to know more about my tax affairs than I do. Typical hubris.
The market prefers full imputation credits. The fact you don't is completely irrelevant. Quite obviously, that simple fact is lost on you, so I won't bother trying to unpack it any further.
Breezy, anyone who sold in the depths of the Covid crisis got smashed. I tried at enormous length to encourage you just before the Covid crash hit to sell at over $6. All the posts are still there on the other channel in early 2020 evidencing that.
Quote from: Basil on Apr 17, 2024, 04:48 PMThe market prefers full imputation credits. The fact you don't is completely irrelevant. I am not going to dignify the rest of your post with a reply.
You talk about "other people" and "the market." I'm talking only about myself, which
is relevant - I don't need or want more excess imputation credits. For other people - yourself obviously - then full imputation is desirable. But not for me. That's all I'm saying and it's not worth arguing any further.
What's relevant to you is frankly, irrelevant to the market. The level of imputation credits affects a dividend payers' attractiveness in terms of its gross yield. For a dividend type investment that affects the share price. I got a huge 24 cent divvy from HLG that was unimputed a while back, December 2022. Giving a third of that to the Govt wasn't much fun for most people.
Anyway...I give up...I thought these basics were understood by everyone...
Quote from: Basil on Apr 17, 2024, 04:48 PMThe market prefers full imputation credits. The fact you don't is completely irrelevant. Quite obviously, that simple fact is lost on you, so I won't bother trying to unpack it any further.
Breezy, anyone who sold in the depths of the Covid crisis got smashed. I tried at enormous length to encourage you just before the Covid crash hit to sell at over $6. All the posts are still there on the other channel in early 2020 evidencing that.
But that's the point I shouldn't have sold any at any price (My avg was $3.20) it was a long term hold and I was actually one of the only positive ones on that thread on the other channel during that time. The best thing I could have done was stay away from the forum for a few months, these types of places can have an underlying negative influence at the wrong time. Given a similar situation in the future I would just do nothing and tune out from forums.
Quote from: Breezy on Apr 17, 2024, 05:19 PMThe best thing I could have done was stay away from the forum for a few months, these types of places can have an underlying negative influence at the wrong time.
What you say is very true but at the end of the day we all have to take ownership of our own decisions as painful as that process can sometimes be. Those were very dark days and a lot of people lost a lot of money.
Quote from: Basil on Apr 17, 2024, 05:26 PMWhat you say is very true but at the end of the day we all have to take ownership of our own decisions as painful as that process can sometimes be. Those were very dark days and a lot of people lost a lot of money.
Anyone who loses 3/4s of their total wealth at 60 and is still alive a few years later has taken ownership but you never get totally over it.
Quote from: Basil on Apr 17, 2024, 05:11 PMWhat's relevant to you is frankly, irrelevant to the market. The level of imputation credits affects a dividend payers' attractiveness in terms of its gross yield. For a dividend type investment that affects the share price. I got a huge 24 cent divvy from HLG that was unimputed a while back, December 2022. Giving a third of that to the Govt wasn't much fun for most people.
Anyway...I give up...I thought these basics were understood by everyone...
I got the same dividend - paid the tax and claimed most of it back at year end. There's the difference in our circumstances right there.
With inflation staying sticky could we be only one winter away from https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/green-shoots.asp
That line is holding and we did not get to see anything like under 5...
Missiles are flying all over the place round the world and global risk is high and the clock of dooms day is almost at midnight.....
and these stocks are steady..
but remember markets oeprate on https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/caveatemptor.asp#:~:text=Caveat%20emptor%20is%20a%20Latin,pointed%20questions%20of%20the%20seller.
Australian retail collapsing. Sector looks cooked, as high interest rates finally impact discretionary spending.
On Thursday shares of retailers fall: Super Retail $SUL (https://twitter.com/search?q=%24SUL&src=cashtag_click) -6.6%, Baby Bunting $BBN (https://twitter.com/search?q=%24BBN&src=cashtag_click) -21%, Temple & Webster $TPW (https://twitter.com/search?q=%24TPW&src=cashtag_click) -11%, Harvey Norman $HVN (https://twitter.com/search?q=%24HVN&src=cashtag_click) -4.3%, Premier Investments $PMV (https://twitter.com/search?q=%24PMV&src=cashtag_click) -4.1%, Lovisa $LOV (https://twitter.com/search?q=%24LOV&src=cashtag_click) -3.3%.
Don't rely on Australia to boost HLG now
Quote from: KW on May 09, 2024, 04:23 PMAustralian retail collapsing. Sector looks cooked, as high interest rates finally impact discretionary spending.
On Thursday shares of retailers fall: Super Retail $SUL (https://twitter.com/search?q=%24SUL&src=cashtag_click) -6.6%, Baby Bunting $BBN (https://twitter.com/search?q=%24BBN&src=cashtag_click) -21%, Temple & Webster $TPW (https://twitter.com/search?q=%24TPW&src=cashtag_click) -11%, Harvey Norman $HVN (https://twitter.com/search?q=%24HVN&src=cashtag_click) -4.3%, Premier Investments $PMV (https://twitter.com/search?q=%24PMV&src=cashtag_click) -4.1%, Lovisa $LOV (https://twitter.com/search?q=%24LOV&src=cashtag_click) -3.3%.
Don't rely on Australia to boost HLG now
And JBH down more than 4% ..and after a not too bad sales update
The market is now pricing in interest rate rises not cuts.
yes the whole NZ market seems to be tanking ... taking a beating ...
its like the articles on Interest.co.nz are having an effect on the countrys' mojo...
HLG back to being a trading stock at last ... cyclical.
HLg competitor in Oz in big strife
Katies owner Mosaic Brands confirms 'safe harbour' enacted to deal with challenges
https://www.businessnewsaustralia.com/articles/katies-owner-mosaic-brands-confirms--safe-harbour--enacted-to-deal-with-challenges.html
And the RBA keeping rates on hold till when ...
the helicopter money had not effect yet from the government.
I have owned this company for at least 6 years and they are very good retailers. They have no debt ( the leases show up as a liability on the balance sheet) and continue to make profits, even with a weak Australian and NZ dollar. The only downside I can see (it would be short lived )is they are near the bottom of the NZX 50 and if they fall out there would be short term selling (an opportunity to add for me) as the ETF re-adjusts and sell.
yup ... interesting to see there next update ... much awaited...
NZ companies that are now mostly Aussified are the ones to watch...
HLG due to report later this month
Maybe they'll say how things have this week
Glassons AU sales were up 4% in H2 and stsrt of H2 sounded promising.
Maybe Glassons AU sales will be up close to 10% for full year .... That'll boost profits and as long as NZ hasn't really stuffed up HLG should have a good year
Quote from: winner (n) on Sep 02, 2024, 05:51 PMHLG due to report later this month
Maybe they'll say how things have this week
Glassons AU sales were up 4% in H2 and stsrt of H2 sounded promising.
Maybe Glassons AU sales will be up close to 10% for full year .... That'll boost profits and as long as NZ hasn't really stuffed up HLG should have a good year
I've stuck with them as they are such good, dependable dividend payers. Hopefully another 24c divvy come December. ;D
Nice mini uptrend since early winter. Maybe Spring really is here :P
Who says retail is going through tough times
HLG Sales +6% and profit up 15%
Not too shabby
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/437495/426517.pdf
Laser eye will be happy as
The Taylor Swift effect is very strong. No cost-of-living crisis for the people attending her concerts eh. I am sure they are happy to rack up thousands on their credit cards and pay it off later. Shame she doesn't come to Australia every year and New Zealand for that matter...oh dear...that's right, Eden Park noise restrictions stuck back in the dark ages.
What do you guys understand for:
"Group net profit after tax is expected to be within the range of $34.0 million to $34.75 million (prior year $32.0 million). This includes a net non-cash deferred tax expense of approximately $1.1 million connected to changes in tax legislation on the deductibility of depreciation on non-residential buildings."
I don't get if that deferred expense should be added or subtracted to normalize earnings.
Normalizing it gives $35.1m - $35.85m, (midpoint $35.48m) compared to last year $32.0m, up 10.9% and represents eps of 59.5 cents per share on 59.65m shares.
Looks like the resident reptiles December dividend of 24 cps is likely. The degree of imputation credits?, who knows...last time imputed at just under half the normal rate.
Market likes it - up 13c. There's a total potential of 48cps coming investors way in Dec and April. With low liquidity I can see another 20-30c in SP growth as the dividend hounds swoop in. Good times for holders.
Nice update - increased revenue AND margin. Its been stuck in a trading range since May last year, but is looking like it might break out of it shortly. Setting up nicely and definitely one to be watching. Once it clears its overhead level there should be nothing stopping it, bar an Australian recession and deeper NZ recession (hopefully not!)
No rate cuts for Aussie scheduled in the next 6 months, so no relief there. But the share price action of my Aussie SCG and VCX would suggest that they are now being priced in again, and retailers are taking off as a result.
yes it shot up today like a falcon 9 ....
miracle update .... makes some others in the retail field look a bit silly...
wonder where they got goodies to sell from ....
where ever it was it clearly made them money... gosh what are they going to make going forward.... lots maybe...
could see retail stocks take off again inside 12 months as even BRIS has caught a strong bid...
some laggies like KMD still in the doledrums...
notice team NZ has a weakness in its tacking when it has no oil in the system... bit like an economy... needs the oil to move the hydraulics...
pedal harder people...
Falcon 9 hit a bit of an air pocket today. Can't help wondering what the overall "one-off" Taylor Swift Era's tour effect has been in the second half. Literally hundreds of thousands of people attended her concerts in Australia and I am sure many wanted to look as "shiny" as possible doing so.
I am not making this stuff up. Investopedia even has a name for it and its well-recognized as having a very strong economic effect. It's called Swiftonomics. https://www.investopedia.com/swiftonomics-definition-8601178
Extract the quite material, (in my view), one off effect from that and I suspect the HLG golden goose is not quite as shiny as it appears at first glance but nevertheless, a well-managed company that's navigated the retail recession very well.
yes the effect is well reported on CNBC as causing inflationary effects in europe..
off topic...
lots of stuff going up ... would be great to see NZ and ASX stocks going up...
https://spaceflightnow.com/launch-schedule/
LVMH has sold off on asia sales being down...
HLG done well then..
next OCR cut coming soon and lots of them... by march things could look a lot different from these dark days....
Quote from: Waltzing on Sep 06, 2024, 08:51 PMnext OCR cut coming soon and lots of them... by march things could look a lot different from these dark days....
9 October can't come quickly enough. Hopefully Orr realizes the huge damage he's done and cuts by 50 bps. Frankly, the economy desperately needs that sized cut immediately don't you think ?
Quote from: Basil on Sep 06, 2024, 07:29 PMFalcon 9 hit a bit of an air pocket today. Can't help wondering what the overall "one-off" Taylor Swift Era's tour effect has been in the second half. Literally hundreds of thousands of people attended her concerts in Australia and I am sure many wanted to look as "shiny" as possible doing so.
I am not making this stuff up. Investopedia even has a name for it and its well-recognized as having a very strong economic effect. It's called Swiftonomics. https://www.investopedia.com/swiftonomics-definition-8601178
Extract the quite material, (in my view), one off effect from that and I suspect the HLG golden goose is not quite as shiny as it appears at first glance but nevertheless, a well-managed company that's navigated the retail recession very well.
Swifties no doubt helped but momentum building since the concerts in February
Half year to January sales were flat v pcp ...... February / March (Swifties time) sales were up 8% ...but for the whole Feb/July period sales up 21%
The period post Swifties has been enormous ...even better than when Taylor was around
a panic 50? hope so!!!
gosh...what to buy the day before..
Quote from: Basil on Sep 07, 2024, 06:32 PM9 October can't come quickly enough. Hopefully Orr realizes the huge damage he's done and cuts by 50 bps. Frankly, the economy desperately needs that sized cut immediately don't you think ?
Suppose this chart means a lotIMG_5911.png
Quote from: Basil on Sep 07, 2024, 06:32 PM9 October can't come quickly enough. Hopefully Orr realizes the huge damage he's done and cuts by 50 bps. Frankly, the economy desperately needs that sized cut immediately don't you think ?
You sound a bit down on the economy ....don't listen to the media, it only makes one depressed.
Things aren't that bad
50 bps won't make any difference ...... economy only boom if government stops talking and actually does something productive to get punters busy again
Maybe many need to cheer up
lets see how retail goes in the next qtrs to 31 march...
certainly companies that did not have DA act together are being slammed..
the next QTR GDP will tell the story...
RBNZ site one that was hardly visited is now top of the pops...
Quote from: Basil on Sep 06, 2024, 07:29 PMFalcon 9 hit a bit of an air pocket today. Can't help wondering what the overall "one-off" Taylor Swift Era's tour effect has been in the second half. Literally hundreds of thousands of people attended her concerts in Australia and I am sure many wanted to look as "shiny" as possible doing so.
I am not making this stuff up. Investopedia even has a name for it and its well-recognized as having a very strong economic effect. It's called Swiftonomics. https://www.investopedia.com/swiftonomics-definition-8601178
Extract the quite material, (in my view), one off effect from that and I suspect the HLG golden goose is not quite as shiny as it appears at first glance but nevertheless, a well-managed company that's navigated the retail recession very well.
Yes, definitely a factor. Only need to look at UNI as a comparable.
FY24 Universal Store sales grew +4.0% with a subdued first half trading environment, offset by the recovery and sustained momentum in the second half. On a full year basis, Universal Store LFL sales declined 0.3% (-5.4% in H1, turning to +6.6% in H2). Refining the Universal Store product range in the second half to better meet current customer demands* was key to the improved sales performance throughout the year, with quarter-on-quarter sequential improvements continuing as the year progressed. * read introduced Era tour outfits
However, sales momentum has continued into FY25
Sales performance during the first seven weeks of FY25 reveal:
• US sales up +15.3%, with
LFL growth up +12.5%, cycling -9.0% last year6
• PS sales up +89.9%, with
LFL growth up +24.2%, cycling +4.9%6
• CTC's sales in the DTC channels up +13.3%, with
LFL up +22.4%, cycling +4.1%6
Contrast that with some of the more mainstream brands in the PMV portfolio (not so much youth focused)
Leaked budgeting and sales documents flowing from the due diligence process now under way between Myer and Mr Lew's Premier Investments, and seen by The Australian, show all of the apparel brands within Premier – Portmans, Just Jeans, Dotti, Jay Jays and Jacqui E – have suffered negative sales growth and collectively are millions of dollars behind their budgeted or projected earnings targets.
According to the documents, Portmans recorded a 10 per cent fall in sales for the winter half to $68.043m, putting it well behind its budget target of just over $75m in sales.
Just Jeans (the largest of the five apparel brands) booked a 0.4 per cent sales fall to $136.326m. Jacqui E had a sales drop of 8.3 per cent to $33.381m to place it well behind its budget while sales at Jay Jays for much of the first 24 weeks of calendar 2024 were down 4.8 per cent to $69.2m, or 4.7 per cent behind budget.
another 12 months or more of slog ahead then...
bris up nearly a dollar on the low....
a sell off in retail coming then maybe...
green shoots anywhere?
winner seems to think so
its a toss of the coin then...
I think this is appalling. Parties enter into DD in good faith the information won't be leaked to anyone else, let alone the press! Heads should roll over this.
Quote from: KW on Sep 09, 2024, 03:21 PMLeaked budgeting and sales documents flowing from the due diligence process now under way between Myer and Mr Lew's Premier Investments, and seen by The Australian, show all of the apparel brands within Premier [snip] have suffered negative sales growth and collectively are millions of dollars behind their budgeted or projected earnings targets.
Quote from: winner (n) on Sep 08, 2024, 08:09 AMSwifties no doubt helped but momentum building since the concerts in February
Half year to January sales were flat v pcp ...... February / March (Swifties time) sales were up 8% ...but for the whole Feb/July period sales up 21%
The period post Swifties has been enormous ...even better than when Taylor was around
Yeah mate you make a good point. Very strong performance through the depths of the economic cycle. Really makes you wonder how well they will do in the years ahead. From memory they have a plan to grow to 50 Australian stores. Taylor starts a new world tour next month.
looks like the all knowing experts will have to get the scissors out and cut the cloth to suite the budget of the day? They will probably tell the merchants to just cut a bit off the bottom....
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/129637/statistics-nzs-selected-price-indexes-show-food-prices-rose-just-04-year-august
did someone write in the article 200 BP's off by end of next year?
boy thats a NOT lot of BP's....cant be right...
OMG ....Glassons AU sales up 14% ....amazing stuff
https://announcements.nzx.com/attachment/428380.pdf
Quote from: winner (n) on Sep 30, 2024, 09:37 AMOMG ....Glassons AU sales up 14% ....amazing stuff
https://announcements.nzx.com/attachment/428380.pdf
Even more anazing was Glassons AU sales up 25% in 2nd half ...yep 25% increase
And start of new year looks pretty good too
Outstanding result in normal trading conditions but in arguably the worst retail conditions since the GFC, the results achieved were truly remarkable. Huge increase in cash on hand at year end "The Group maintains a strong balance sheet with a cash balance of $45.9 million at the end of FY24, up
$13.4 million on the previous year" which puts them in a very strong position for continued store expansion in the current year. N.Z. sales were more resilient than I expected. Increased dividend from 24 cps to a record 26.5 cps, (noting just over 75% imputed which is great), is most welcome just before the Christmas holidays and really encouraging in terms of dividend growth in the years ahead.
Looking forward, I've also noted the current exchange rate of 62-63 cents US is significantly better than that which was on average prevailing last year which is supportive of gross margins staying high. A LOT to like with how resilient this company has been in extremely tough trading conditions, and I am really looking forward to seeing how they perform in the years ahead. Disc: I have built back to a solid investment position in HLG over the course of this month. I see them as an excellent long term hold for dividend income going forward.
Great performance. Might be time to consider a dual ASX listing?
Just for you Basil ...Glassons AU market share trend
Not even 1% of total retail clothing sector innOZ .....imagine the potential
IMG_5922.png
Thanks mate, much appreciated. They now have 38 Glassons Au stores with an ambition for 50 as their first expansionary target. As you say, there's plenty more room for growth after that. It's astonishing they have traded so well through the bottom of the retail cycle with the well-known cost of living crisis and ongoing currency and freight headwinds. I bought a few more today noting the yield with 50.5 cps in annual dividends and assuming 75% imputation level = 50.5 / 0.79 = 63.92 cps gross = 10% gross yield at $6.40 + growth in the years ahead. That 10% gross will look pretty good when term deposits are only paying 4% in a years' time eh. (Noting also with that yield a truly impressive track record of outstanding dividends over the past 2 decades +, and no readily apparent cause for concern about the dividend being cut in the future, unlike quite a few other companies on the NZX). No debt, proven brand value even in extraordinary tough times, stable ownership structure, e.t.c.... lots to like.
Forbar guys reckon that a new store generates >20% return on the capital needed to get one going ...that's a good sign
Quote from: Basil on Sep 30, 2024, 06:27 PMIt's astonishing they have traded so well through the bottom of the retail cycle with the well-known cost of living crisis and ongoing currency and freight headwinds.
{snip}
No debt, proven brand value even in extraordinary tough times, stable ownership structure, e.t.c.... lots to like
Lots to like indeed - especially the no debt and no CR parts. For a 'cyclical' company they have managed to grow sales per share (noting the share count has not changed) through a couple of financial troughs; the 'cyclical' part appears to impact costs and the % of sales that drops out as NPAT the bottom.
NPAT as a % of sales has bounced between 6.1% and 10.1%. There was no (aka negative) growth in EPS from 2010-2017; it has only really improved over the last 7 years. Nice to see managed growth with no debt and a NZ company doing well in Oz.
HLG EPS 2024 - Copy.JPG
Nice chart Ferg
Yes those cyclical factors like margin and costs ...but jeez just imagine what profit will be when that NPAT/Sales gets back around 10% mark .....on ever increasing sales ....maybe 2026
Quote from: winner (n) on Sep 30, 2024, 07:56 PMjust imagine what profit will be when that NPAT/Sales gets back around 10% mark .....on ever increasing sales ....maybe 2026
Nice to imagine: assume modest sales growth in FY25 of 2% and growth in FY26 of 5% which is less than all 5/10/15 year measures for compound annual sales growth. Assuming NPAT in FY25 is 8.5% and 9.0% in FY26:
HLG proj 25-26 v2 - Copy.JPG
Time for a crazy beautiful song:
P.S. Promise me you will stop making irrelevant comparisons to sports teams and fans and I will keep sharing my work.
Hey Ferg. Sales up 10% to start the year and things looking better in OZ so let's assume they maintain that. That Manawa Mall might do that on its own lol
Basil says forex and supply chain looking favourable so let's say 9% profit margin
Could looking at $7.30 sales plus 10% equals about $8.00 at 9% margin gives F25 EPS of 73 cents
Imagine that ....and thats not being really optimistic...just a bit of catching up after a few challenging years
No wonder Basil happy Az
Quote from: winner (n) on Sep 30, 2024, 05:12 PMJust for you Basil ...Glassons AU market share trend
Not even 1% of total retail clothing sector innOZ .....imagine the potential
IMG_5922.png
Tripled their market share in Australia since 2017. Hmmm.
To me, 2018 was a transformative year. I hesitate to use the term but it was indeed a point of inflection for HLG.
From a valuation perspective I have long held the view its best to look at HLG as the sum of two parts.
Glassons N.Z. and Hollensteins are combined, no growth divisions of the company and always have been.
Net profit from these divisions was $15.6m in 2017 and is $16.1m in 2024. I think fair value on a market cap basis with equity risk premiums lower these days is 10 times those earnings = $161m
Market cap as at the time of this post is $369.8m @ $6.45 so you are paying $369.8m - $161m = $208.8m for Glasson's Au operations that earned $19.5m last year, (historical PE of just 10.7 times) on $218m sales, up from just $1.4m profit on $50m sales in 2017.
Since James Glasson was appointed to lead the Australian operations, (forgive me was that 2017 or 2018, I forget), sales have a 23% CAGR since 2017. After hitting critical mass with the brand and store numbers their profitability has grown very strongly there over the last 7 years.
Maybe this (divisional profitability methodology), is a simplistic way to lo0k at it but to me, it makes no sense that the strong growth part of the business, is at just 10.7 times historical earnings, say 10 times forward earnings, is being priced by the market as a no growth division.
Indeed since 2017, despite all the challenges with Covid and recessionary conditions prevailing, eps has doubled from 28 cps to 58 cps, a CAGR of just over 10%, yet overall, the company is priced like a no growth pure cyclical.
I find it very easy to hold GARP stocks, and wait for the growth when being paid a 10% gross yield. You can easily garner a lot of patience when being paid handsomely like that.
Ferg, I reckon your sales growth assumptions are a bit too conservative, but I really appreciate your input into this. Any chance you could find the time to do a 10 year analysis of Turners ?
There is a lot to be said for having cash on hand to fund an expansion or shore up the supply chain when debt laden competitors are battening down the hatches. Looks a bit like a lazy balance sheet in the good times, but boy does it pay off when times are tight. Briscoes and Hallensteins conservative, deliberate approach are really paying dividends. The less said about The Warehouse the better, other than they offer an apt contrast, going down the toilet at a time when consumers are focused on value.
Di Humphries came back in 2015 and sorted a troubled Glassons out and instigated the Oz expansion. She was a genius
What she had set up (a booming Glassons AU) was handed over to James late 2017 with instructions like 'don't stuff up what Di has left you'
He's hasn't stuffed up what was handed to him on a golden plate ......Di wil be pleased
I knew you'd mention Di Humphries lol. He's more than quadrupled sales in the last 7 years since he took over but it was all handed to him on a golden plate you reckon...Hmmm, okay, let's just agree to disagree on that. Fact is Glassons Au sales only really took off when James came on board, but I will concede Di laid the foundations. Di will be very pleased with how he's performed over the years, we agree 110% on that ! I think James knows he stands to inherit a large chunk of Tim Glasson's 20% stake in due course so it's fair to say he's highly motivated!
Quote from: Basil on Oct 01, 2024, 12:20 PMFerg, I reckon your sales growth assumptions are a bit too conservative, but I really appreciate your input into this. Any chance you could find the time to do a 10 year analysis of Turners?
You're welcome. I purposely went conservative....I thought I read somewhere that sales was up nicely since year end but there was a warning to not assume that was the case for the rest of the year, unless that was another company. Sales CAGR has been impressive but it can be hard to shift the dial on NPAT % without significant volume and/or structural changes - I am conscious/wary of the hockey stick effect of multiplying 2 increasing numbers and don't want to appear as though I am ramping.
Re TRA: I am slowly making my way through a number of companies; I have done 13 so far. TRA is on the list to do, but we sold the lifestyle block 2 weeks ago and are moving in about 4 weeks so things are a bit hectic at times, interspersed with periods of inspiration where I work on this sort of stuff. Keep in mind, those graphs are really just a high level view without the nuts and bolts - like a brutal American filter of 'show me the money'. No flowery words of what companies are going to do, just raw 'proof of the pudding' numbers. It is very 'Captain Hindsight' which I use as a filter. Any significant investment decisions would require a nuts and bolts analysis. I will get onto it though because TRA is on the list.
Quote from: winner (n) on Oct 01, 2024, 12:53 PMDi Humphries came back in 2015 and sorted a troubled Glassons out and instigated the Oz expansion. She was a genius
What she had set up (a booming Glassons AU) was handed over to James late 2017 with instructions like 'don't stuff up what Di has left you'
Looking at the graph, there was a significant increase in sales in 2017 & 2018. So if Di came back in 2015, that confirms for me that strategic plans and/or appointments can take multiple years to pay dividends.
Quote from: Basil on Oct 01, 2024, 01:00 PMI knew you'd mention Di Humphries lol. He's more than quadrupled sales in the last 7 years since he took over but it was all handed to him on a golden plate you reckon...Hmmm, okay, let's just agree to disagree on that. Fact is Glassons Au sales only really took off when James came on board, but I will concede Di laid the foundations. Di will be very pleased with how he's performed over the years, we agree 110% on that ! I think James knows he stands to inherit a large chunk of Tim Glasson's 20% stake in due course so it's fair to say he's highly motivated!
Di is a genius and if it wasn't for her Glassons AU wouldn't be where it is today
James is pretty good but no genius
And if take out 2018 growth of 57% and credit that to Di as James was settling in your quadruple in 7 years is more like threefold in 6 years
That's the past but aren't you looking forward to F25 EPS of 73 cents.
Thanks, Ferg and of course you are quite right there was a warning to that effect so it's good to be conservative but 2% does seem a little too much, given loosening central bank policy restraint forecast on boat sides of the Tasman, but time will tell.
13 companies a VERY strong effort, (how do you find the time ?). and I really appreciate the work you are putting in. I really love the objective decade long helicopter view you are providing on these companies. So much talk and creative corporate "speak" by companies...just let the numbers do the talking I reckon. Really looking forward to your thoughts on Turners. Best wishes with moving house.
From memory Di Humphries came and went in the 2010's decade, like a revolving door and I can't remember the overall timing of her comings and goings, but I'll follow suit and let the numbers do the talking. Glassons Au sales in 2011 were $36m and that grew at only just on a 5% CAGR through to 2017 to $50m and since James was appointed sales have more than quadrupled from $50m to $218m and grown at a 23% CAGR. Who is responsible for the recent growth, I think the numbers speak for themselves but acknowledge others will have a different view that foundations were laid that were vital for the recent growth and that's fine. All that really matters to me as a shareholder is the Australian growth is working and its strong even at the bottom of the retail cycle.
That said, Winner me Ol mate, you make a fair point about FY18 growth, and I accept Di laid the foundations for that but threefold sales growth in 6 years is very impressive to. Perhaps you underrate James's skills a little?
I think it's a bit too early to be making estimations of FY25 eps. My investment thesis is quite simple, I'm in like a hungry dividend hound for the 10% gross dividend yield and very confident of earnings / dividend growth in the years ahead as the economy recovers, translating into the share price hopefully heading north over time. They're in a VERY strong position with just on 75 cents per share in cash on the balance sheet. Take that out from the current share price and the metrics look even more compelling. As I see it, you're paying a no growth PE of about 9.5-10 times, (about 8.5 times adjusting for cash on the balance sheet), forward earnings for a company with a well proven history of strong growth in Australia and all this at the bottom of the economic cycle.
Glassons AU sales per store have doubled since 2018
Testament to their expansion and upgrade plans .....James doing lol
Quote from: winner (n) on Oct 01, 2024, 02:18 PMTestament to their expansion and upgrade plans .....James doing lol
Very impressive doubling same store sales and adding some more. I fixed that and put it in proper sized font and colour for you lol
20% return on capital with new stores...gosh, maybe they should open a few more really soon.
With James Glasson firing up Glasson the huge side effect will be more Malls wanting him to open up a store in their Mall.
Forsyth Barr update out today.
Financials: Aug/ 24A 25E 26E 27E
Rev (NZ$m) 435.6 459.5 475.6 494.0
NPAT* (NZ$m) 34.5 39.1 40.0 42.5
EPS* (NZc) 57.8 65.6 67.1 71.2
DPS (NZc) 50.5 56.0 57.0 60.5
Imputation (%) 75 75 75 75
*Based on normalised profits
Valuation (x) 24A 25E 26E 27E
PE 11.1 9.8 9.5 9.0
EV/EBIT 7.2 6.5 6.3 6.0
EV/EBITDA 4.2 3.9 3.7 3.6
Price / NTA 3.7 3.4 3.2 3.0
Cash div yld (%) 7.9 8.8 8.9 9.5
Gross div yld (%) 10.2 11.3 11.5 12.
All figures based on yesterday's closing price of $6.40.
Target price: Increased +5% (NZ40 cents per share) to NZ$8.30
Rating OUTPERFORM
Emphasis added. Gosh look at the future gross yields, 11.3% gross forecast for the current year FY25 ! A dividend hounds sheer delight...better watch my weight, you can get bloody fat when being fed that well lol ;D
The only numbers Forbar have got right are the 24E ones
If I was those analysts boss I'd say that's rubbish and tell them go back to their computers and get real
Shareprice 7 bucks by Friday .... Then 8 bucks by Christmas
Hot dog about your thinking !! I hope you're right, might be $7 tomorrow lol
Forbar forecasting 5.5% group growth in sales in FY25 followed by only 3.5% in FY26 and 3.9% in FY27, (surely these latter two years are very conservative as monetary policy restraint will be significantly eased by then).
No price target from me, just a comment that I think over time, the share price is headed North !
I do note however that $8.30 would put them on 12.65 times FY25 forecast earnings, (currently on 10.2 times @ $6.71), which seems quite reasonable compared to another excellent retailer, Briscoes, currently on 13 times FY25 eps. Tuners currently on 10.7 times Forbar's FY25 estimate, also looks very cheap....for how much longer, who knows. Hey Winner, maybe we could get Tina to model some of Glasson's swimwear and invite her out on my boat for a party this Christmas ;D
Quote from: Basil on Oct 01, 2024, 01:50 PM13 companies a VERY strong effort, (how do you find the time ?). and I really appreciate the work you are putting in. I really love the objective decade long helicopter view you are providing on these companies. So much talk and creative corporate "speak" by companies...just let the numbers do the talking I reckon. Really looking forward to your thoughts on Turners. Best wishes with moving house.
Thanks for that. Nice to know it is appreciated.
Christmas has come early: https://stocktalk.co.nz/index.php?topic=104.msg26172
No tennis tonight so TRA became the priority. I have been wanting to look at it.
Where do I find the time? No TV and no social media. Would you believe I have a lifetime ban on Reddit for making a 3 word joke? That helps immensely, as have a couple of other investors behind the scenes who shall remain nameless.
Looking good for retail in Oz. Westpac says -
Retail sales came in above market expectations in August, from an upwardly revised July.
Gains were seen across all industries except household goods, which is continuing its unwind from a mid-year boost.
All states and territories saw a rise, with gains led by the big eastern states.
While warm weather may have played a part, today's result also looks to be a clearer sign that tax cuts and other fiscal support measures are starting to provide some lift to spending.
In the numbers I note Clothing up 2.5% seasonally adjusted from July ....what's that annualised lol
HLG seems the best performing and brighter future prospect of the favourite H stocks
Might see some switching
Quote from: Ferg on Oct 01, 2024, 10:31 PMThanks for that. Nice to know it is appreciated.
Christmas has come early: https://stocktalk.co.nz/index.php?topic=104.msg26172
No tennis tonight so TRA became the priority. I have been wanting to look at it.
Where do I find the time? No TV and no social media. Would you believe I have a lifetime ban on Reddit for making a 3 word joke? That helps immensely, as have a couple of other investors behind the scenes who shall remain nameless.
Reddit is where the stupid hang out. You are better off not losing brain cells by reading it. At least stick to X/Twitter where the intelligent people are. FinTwit is pretty good.
Quote from: Ferg on Oct 01, 2024, 10:31 PMNo tennis tonight so TRA became the priority. I have been wanting to look at it.
Where do I find the time? No TV and no social media.
Many thanks Ferg.
Watching CNBC is my Archille's heel when it comes to wasting time....and oh yeah, I can't stop staying up to watch the America's cup racing live. I know there's a replay in the morning but for some illogical reason I prefer to watch it live...go figure, even I don't know why lol
Jarden's latest research out and they also see 66 cps in FY25 and an even higher gross yield than Forbar. In terms of growth at a reasonable price, "GARP" stock investing, which is what I like to do the most, the price doesn't usually ever get any more reasonable than buying stocks with a proven growth history on a no growth forward PE of 10, noting also, a very similar situation exists with Turners at present.
I don't think you're missing much with Reddit, I don't bother.
Nearly $7!
Quote from: winner (n) on Oct 01, 2024, 06:17 PMShareprice 7 bucks by Friday .... Then 8 bucks by Christmas
Quote from: Basil on Oct 01, 2024, 06:27 PMHot dog about your thinking !! I hope you're right, might be $7 tomorrow lol
For some time during the final 15 minute match process the match price was indeed $7. If it closed there, that would have been a bit spooky after my post yesterday lol.
I think Winner might hit the jackpot with his Christmas $8 forecast.
Quote from: Basil on Oct 02, 2024, 05:34 PMFor some time during the final 15 minute match process the match price was indeed $7. If it closed there, that would have been a bit spooky after my post yesterday lol.
I think Winner might hit the jackpot with his Christmas $8 forecast.
The rave reviews by Forbar and Craig's must be creating a bit of interest eh
But their forecasts are really really conservative ...like this is how Forbar see sales/store .....going in future ....leaving upside for the next update
What was Forbars target price again?
IMG_5923.jpeg
WOW, an image says a 1000 words eh. Thanks for sharing that and I couldn't agree more. Brokers, (and Jarden are the same), future sales expectations for Glassons Au are extremely conservative and at a major divergence to the well proven track record of strong growth since 2016. The steepness of the black line (well proven) and the dotted future forecast path speaks volumes for how much room the analysts are giving themselves for future upgrades. $8.30 within a year as a target is probably quite conservative considering significant expected central govt policy easing forecast over the next 12 months, hopefully starting with half a percentage point next week. Certainly, the metrics even at that forecast price point are not demanding.
HLG well and truly overdue to hit a new all-time high sometime in the next 12 months I reckon, maybe by Christmas as you suggest with a good trading update at the December annual meeting. Got as high as $7.85 in February 2021 and there's been a LOT of growth in Glassons Au since then.
For better or worse pundits saying 2 50bps ocr cuts by Christmas
Watch Term Deposits drop below 4%
Just imagine if advisors pointed punters to the HLG and said even 7% is pretty good relative to the banks 4%
Say HLG cash dividend is 60 cents next year ....even partially imputed that's still 75 cents. A share price of $10。70 would give them that 7%
Basically saying 8 bucks is cheap .... 9 bucks is still cheap .....
Quote from: winner (n) on Oct 01, 2024, 06:17 PMShareprice 7 bucks by Friday .... Then 8 bucks by Christmas
A day early. You're a legend mate. A solid sales update at the annual meeting in December and I reckon you're odds-on favorite to be right again.
A friend asked me at lunch yesterday whether he had missed the boat with HLG. Had to think about that a bit after the recent jump and came home and worked out that at $7.10 it's trading on 10.75 times FY25 consensus earnings. How many other stocks with a well proven history of growth like Glassons Au has are trading on that multiple ? Considering one is looking at this for FY25 income and beyond, if you treat the forthcoming final dividend from FY24 of 26.5 cps as a partial return of the purchase price, the net price becomes $6.835, (ignoring partial tax impost on the 26.5 cps divvy due in December), and 6.835 / 0.66 = a forward PE of 10.36. Despite the recent share price rise, that's ostensibly a PE one normally associates with a no growth stock. Disc: I bought some more this morning.
Filling in time between races had a quick look at how HLG made $6.7m pre-tax profit more in F24 v F23
Glassons AU sold heaps and improved their Gross Margin. GM up $18.6m but expenses increased by $13.8m resulting in npbt +$4.86m on F23
Glassons NZ saw less sales offset by higher margins and expenses not too bad so npbt down a tad on F23
Hallensteins sold a bit more and had a decent increase in margin and ended up making $2 m more than F23
Always good to see these numbers
IMG_5937.png
regarding divisional expenses, recall there was the implementation of transfer pricing between the subsidiaries in 2h FY23 (I think 1h was normal allocation and the second half had transfer pricing, but haven't double checked when they implemented it). so the allocation of expenses between subsidiaries may not be like for like for FY23 to FY24, but at an aggregate/total level the movement in expenses still accurate (and same for revenue and margin).
the prob with this stuff is where it is made and how long they can keep the profits going....
of plenty of people around the world who need jobs on sowing machines...
but it all comes down to assembling the threads ...
its not called the rag trade for nothing...
great performance....
makes some other retails look a bit shabby.....
Quote from: Waltzing on Oct 13, 2024, 10:46 AMmakes some other retails look a bit shabby.....
A lot to like about the steady and methodical way HLG are going about their Glassons expansion in Australia. Interesting post on the other channel this evening.
QuoteShe's getting rough in the Retail Rag trade over the ditch:
Another large mob have just bit the dust with Administrators appointed:
Aussie jobs at risk as major retailer Mosaic Brands enters voluntary administration
https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/au...045627481.html
An Australian fashion retailer with approximately 2,700 employees across 700 stores has entered voluntary administration. Mosaic Brands is behind popular retailers like Katies, Rivers, Millers and Noni B.
The ASX-listed retailer made the announcement on Monday, appointing Vaughan Strawbridge, Kathryn Evans, Kate Warwick and David McGrath from FTI Consulting as administrators. The group is now seeking to "capitalise and invest" in five core brands after a recent downsize.
Mosaic closed about 200 stores when brands like Crossroads, Rockmans, Autograph, W.Lane and BeMe were abandoned last month
"Following recent attempts by the company to informally restructure its operations, the Board of Mosaic has determined that voluntary administration is now the most appropriate way to restructure the group," the company said.
Mosaic Brands administration: Retailer behind mall mainstays Millers, Noni B and Katies goes under
https://thewest.com.au/business/reta...der-c-16550798
TheAustralian now appear to be reporting KPMG appointed in as Receivers (behind paywall)
Anyone remember Ezybuy ?
https://www.ezibuy.com/nz/ezibuy-mosaic-brands-ltd.html
https://www.ezibuy.com/nz/ezibuy-about-us
Probably play well into hands of HLG in the Aussie Retail Marketplace
Emphasis added by me.
Quote from: winner (n) on Oct 01, 2024, 06:17 PMShareprice 7 bucks by Friday .... Then 8 bucks by Christmas
You're on fire mate. Got the $7 call right, even got there a bit early and making great strides towards $8 by Christmas.
Annual report is out today. Gosh there's a LOT to like about this very well managed business.
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/440953/attachment/430797/440953-430797.pdf
Quote from: Basil on Oct 31, 2024, 01:27 PMAnnual report is out today. Gosh there's a LOT to like about this very well managed business.
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/440953/attachment/430797/440953-430797.pdf
Yep, great company. I am sure you are referring particularly to their chapters about sustainability, ESG, ethical leadership and similar. Hey, they take these subjects quite seriously - and good on them!
Oops - didn't one poster (lets leave him unnamed, shall we) recently tell us "go woke, go broke"? ... Ah well, never mind. People are allowed to learn.
HLG management know their customers love the whole sustainability thing.
Was looking casually in Bayfair, Tauranga yesterday. Saw a pair of cargo trousers from Kmart at $30. Then passing Hallensteins they had some similar pants for $29!
I didn't have time to have a proper look and it is only one item but to me it shows how competitive they are.
Can also add my biggest holding and the yield is great!
Hallensteins have finger on the pulse of the nation
Extend their support of the Naz Warriors ...UP THE WAHS
https://www.warriors.kiwi/news/2024/10/23/hallensteins-extends-partnership-by-two-more-years/
Good move. For some time, the Hallenstein's brand has been languishing, so they need to keep doing things to lift the profile of the brand and this is good. For some reason that's lost on this old dog, lots of young guys think the WAHS are tough and cool. We need Hallensteins to perform well so that the level of imputation credits is kept as high as possible. Looking forward to the 26.5 cps dividend next month that's over 75% imputed.
I was silly enough to sell out a few years back, fearing retail Armageddon. I came to my senses and took a second look at the company, and found myself impressed by how well it was managed, their retailing skills and agility, and their ability to self-fund growth while maintaining a financial buffer through conservative gearing. They looked like a business that is going to stay in business, with a better than even chance of prospering without the need for everything to go right (favourable winds) to succeed. So back on the shareholder register I came!
Someone suggested on another thread that there were only 5 good companies on the NZX (probably they were exaggerating), but it got me thinking which are the truly well run companies deserving of investor trust, and in retail Hallensteins (and Briscoes) would be it for me.
Having recovered from my temporary burp of irrationality, I am happy to leave this one in the bottom drawer as a long hold without the need for constant monitoring...
Quote from: winner (n) on Oct 01, 2024, 06:17 PMThe only numbers Forbar have got right are the 24E ones
If I was those analysts boss I'd say that's rubbish and tell them go back to their computers and get real
Shareprice 7 bucks by Friday .... Then 8 bucks by Christmas
Crickey, you're a legend mate. HLG quietly making new all-time high's almost every day.
QuoteHaving recovered from my temporary burp of irrationality, I am happy to leave this one in the bottom drawer as a long hold without the need for constant monitoring...Popeye
That's the best thing about high quality companies with exceptional management and I put TRA in that camp as well. No need to obsess about the company, just let them get on with their job of growing the business in the years ahead.
Quote from: Popeye on Nov 06, 2024, 04:29 PMSomeone suggested on another thread that there were only 5 good companies on the NZX (probably they were exaggerating), but it got me thinking which are the truly well run companies deserving of investor trust, and in retail Hallensteins (and Briscoes) would be it for me.
Out of interest, what were the five stocks?
It was a throwaway comment by KW and she never named them but for what its worth I reckon there are more than 5 but the trick is to find a few with genuine growth prospects that are priced on compelling metrics. GARP stocks, (growth at a reasonable price). This and TRA fit the bill nicely in my view and SUM will too if the property market can get going properly again. Others love the growth story of IFT, MFT, FPH, EBO to name a few, arguably all of which are already priced for perfection or very close to it.
Quote from: Basil on Nov 20, 2024, 06:49 PMIt was a throwaway comment by KW and she never named them but for what its worth I reckon there are more than 5 but the trick is to find a few with genuine growth prospects that are priced on compelling metrics. GARP stocks, (growth at a reasonable price). This and TRA fit the bill nicely in my view and SUM will too if the property market can get going properly again. Others love the growth story of IFT, MFT, FPH, EBO to name a few, arguably all of which are already priced for perfection or very close to it.
Thanks Basil. At 7.80 do you still think HLG is compelling value?
HLG looks like a remarkable well run business when you see there is only 2 months of sales sitting in inventory :o
QuoteThanks Basil. At 7.80 do you still think HLG is compelling value? Dolcile
Thanks, Dolcile that's a very good question considering it just hit a new all-time high after a very nice run up over the last 8 weeks or so from the low $6 range, (please see the excellent discussion and contributions from several well-respected posters on 1 October on this thread if you haven't read them already).
I don't think there's any question it was a truly compelling buy in the low $6 price range, and I made the case you are ostensibly buying a well proven growth company on no growth metrics which made no sense to me whatsoever, so I actioned a significant acquisition program accordingly which ironically enough only finished off yesterday with a very small top up at $7.80.
So how much are you paying for the growth now? is a very timely and pertinent question.
In posts on 1 October, among many other points I made which I won't replicate in this post I made the case that eps has grown at a 10% CAGR overt the last 7-8 years. Just unpacking that a bit more as I think it's worth highlighting what an achievement that's been over the last 5 years in particular as retailers have struggled against unprecedented headwinds from firstly the pandemic and more recently, the flow through economic effects from that with very high interest rates causing a prolonged recession here and cost of living crisis on both sides of the Tasman.
Can that 10%, (or something similar to that), CAGR in eps growth rate continue in the years ahead?
While no one can say with any degree of complete certainty we won't face some new exogenous shock, I think on the balance of probabilities its very unlikely the huge challenges of the past 5 years, (a perfect storm for retail), will occur again in the foreseeable future.
Tailwinds appear far more likely from declining interest rates and hopefully N.Z. economy will finally emerge from what feels like 5 years of either no growth or recessionary conditions.
The growth at a reasonable price (GARP) primary valuation yardstick I have used to great effect for more than a decade now is GARP stocks are a compelling buy when you pay a no growth forward PE of 8.5 + 1 extra PE for every 1% expected growth rate in eps over the next 7-10 years. This is a derivation of the Ben Graham formula where he used two times the growth rate based on historical eps. My yardstick is far more conservative than his was and on my yardstick a lot of companies like FPH for one example look terribly overpriced.
So the next question is what their growth rate could be for the next 7-10 years?
My view on this as hinted at above is that to grow eps over the last 7-8 years at 10% CAGR is a tremendous achievement given the extreme headwinds faced in recent years.
All of the growth is earnings has come from Glassons Australia which has quadrupled sales over that timeframe. In my view, the N.Z. market is saturated with Hallensteins and Glassons stores and there has been no growth here for over a decade and there's unlikely to be any in the next 10 years. Important to understand these brands and businesses are very mature here and have been trading for over 100 years.
In contrast Glassons is a young and fast-growing brand in Australia with sales growing at a very solid pace, very low market penetration with only slightly more Glassons stores there than in N.Z. despite the vastly bigger market, about 6 times the size from memory.
No question James Glasson is doing an exceptional job growing their market presence in Australia and there's a very long runway of growth there extending out several decades in my opinion. With sales more than quadrupling in the last 7-8 years they have now achieved critical mass with over $200m sales there and with new distribution centers are very well placed to grow and enjoy economies of scale as they do so.
James is well qualified, (degree qualified from the London school of fashion), now has a proven track record of leading very strong growth in Australia and there's a massive runway ahead for growth in the decades ahead. Additionally, he's obviously highly motivated and probably stands to inherit a decent chunk of Tim Glasson's 20% stake presently worth north of $90m.
I started getting really serious about building a retirement income about 13 years ago when I turned 50. HLG presented to me in August 2016 as a classic dividend hounds stock. At the time, from memory, it was trading on a no growth PE of about 8.5 and a gross yield of 15%. There was fierce debate on the other forum at the time as to whether HLG faced an existential crisis from new retailers like Zara and a host of other brands I forget as well as an increased propensity for shoppers to shop online. I made the case at the time that most people want to try clothes on to see if they fit properly, the feel of the fabric and the style to see what they look like on their body. I stand by that thesis today. My belief at the time which still holds true today was that HLG has an exceptional track record of dividend payments stretching a long way back over time and it could be relied upon to be a very reliable high dividend earner going forward. That's certainly been the case. What I never imagined back then, because there was no track record of strong growth in Australia with Glassons and I was only buying for the exceptional 15% gross yield, was that the share price would nearly triple from $2.75 over the next 8 years. Its fair to say HLG has been a wonderfully successful company for me with not only exceptional and highly reliable dividends but also tremendous capital gains.
I believe they are very well positioned to continue their track record of the last 8 years of strong growth in Australia over the next 8 years and beyond.
My base case is I think on average their eps growth in the years ahead will be similar to what its been in the past. I think mid to late single digit eps growth is most likely over the next decade. If I draw a line in the sand and call that number 7% eps growth, (compared to 10% in the last 8 years) that suggests to me the shares are worth at least a forward PE of 8.5 + 7 = 15.5. Market evidence. I think the best comparison here is Briscoes which I note trades on a historic PE of just over 15 but does not have any growth prospects in Australia so its very easy to make the case HLG deserves a materially higher PE than Briscoes.
So where does the current pricing suggest the forward metrics currently are?
Firstly, I would make the case that someone bringing fresh capital to the table today has not owned those shares in FY24 and is best to treat the dividend due in the next few weeks as a partial return of the purchase price when looking at the metrics for FY25 and beyond. Ignoring the slight tax impost of the looming dividend as its ~ 76% imputed the net share price for FY25 earnings and dividends and beyond becomes $7.80 - 26.5 cps = $7.54.
I have recalculated Forsyth Barr's forecasted metrics below based on a share price of $7.54 compared to their calculations which were based on a share price recently of $6.40. Updated forward metrics for FY25, FY26 and FY27 at $7.54 in bold green
Quote from: Basil on Oct 01, 2024, 05:48 PMForsyth Barr update out today.
Financials: Aug/ 24A 25E 26E 27E
Rev (NZ$m) 435.6 459.5 475.6 494.0
NPAT* (NZ$m) 34.5 39.1 40.0 42.5
EPS* (NZc) 57.8 65.6 67.1 71.2
DPS (NZc) 50.5 56.0 57.0 60.5
Imputation (%) 75 75 75 75
*Based on normalised profits
Valuation (x) 24A 25E 26E 27E
PE 11.1 9.8 9.5 9.0 FY25 11.5 FY26 11.2 FY27 10.6
EV/EBIT 7.2 6.5 6.3 6.0
EV/EBITDA 4.2 3.9 3.7 3.6
Price / NTA 3.7 3.4 3.2 3.0
Cash div yld (%) 7.9 8.8 8.9 9.5
Gross div yld (%) 10.2 11.3 11.5 12. FY25 9.7 FY26 9.9 FY27 10.3%[/color]
All figures based on yesterday's closing price of $6.40.
Target price: Increased +5% (NZ40 cents per share) to NZ$8.30
Rating OUTPERFORM
Emphasis added. Gosh look at the future gross yields, 11.3% gross forecast for the current year FY25 ! A dividend hounds sheer delight...better watch my weight, you can get bloody fat when being fed that well lol ;D
I think you can see I still believe the metrics on HLG are really compelling.
Its an exceptionally rare thing to be able to buy a company with such a proven history and such excellent growth prospects in Australia on such compelling metrics.
Lastly, I really like the way they have gone about their growth ambitions, slowly, methodically and with no debt. Indeed, HLG have never been in such a strong position to continue their growth journey while contemporaneously paying high dividends. They have no debt and about 75 cps of cash in the bank which is the highest level of cash in the bank they've ever had. HLG's resilience in the last 5 years in the face of extreme economic and pandemic headwinds has been exceptional and right in line with Turners exceptional track record, (my biggest NZX holding, HLG, a very close second)
Basil, that is a phenomenal response and I thank you for putting the time into so clearly articulating your thoughts.
Off to do more of my own research.
thanks again.
You're most welcome Dolcile. I think I put so much effort into it because of my long and successful history with HLG, (who doesn't enjoy reminiscing a bit about one of their most successful investments lol), but also more specifically, to double check I didn't pay too much for the last top up at $7.80 yesterday lol. Any more questions in due course after you've done more research, I'm happy to answer and share what I know.
I think I might have talked myself into getting a few more HLG in the near future lol
Basil, one initial question.
I understand HLG don't fully impute dividends. That strikes me as a little unusual, and I'm wondering why they aren't generating enough imputation credits? Is that because they are paying out dividends ahead of (or greater than) the taxable profit.... which would seem odd to me because with growth a certain amount of profit would need to be retained for investment and working capital.
Quote from: Dolcile on Nov 21, 2024, 11:53 AMBasil, one initial question.
I understand HLG don't fully impute dividends. That strikes me as a little unusual, and I'm wondering why they aren't generating enough imputation credits? Is that because they are paying out dividends ahead of (or greater than) the taxable profit.... which would seem odd to me because with growth a certain amount of profit would need to be retained for investment and working capital.
Problem of earning money and paying taxes overseas.
Don't forget that a good chunk of their earnings comes from Australia, which means they pay over there as well taxes (nice for the West Island, isn't it?).
They can't give their New Zealand shareowners imputation credits for taxes they paid in Australia. However - if you move to Australia, you might be entitled to Franking credits on that bit (though I doubt you could keep the NZ imputation credits in this case. In essence - IRD is always winning.
Quite right BP. Dolcile, its's all about the moderate level of profits earned in N.Z. and the fact that tax paid in Australia on Glasson's Au profit cannot be used to impute dividends here. I doubt the double tax agreement between Australia and N.Z. will ever allow reciprocal franking and imputation credit entitlements. As you suggest BP, one thing that might make HLG far more attractive to Australian residents is a dual listing which would enable dividends to be partially franked to Australian residents.
The gross yield posted above at the current price of 9.7% for FY25 and growing thereafter, assumes imputation credits are available to 75% of the maximum level. Whether that's a safe assumption going forward, only time will tell but I am hopeful with the N.Z. economy surely due to recover from an exceptionally long period of very strong headwinds, hopefully trading conditions for Hallensteins and Glassons N.Z. will improve somewhat in the years ahead allowing future dividends to be imputed to a satisfactory level.
I expect the term deposit rate this time next year to be in the range of 3.5 - 4.0%. 9.7% gross yield for HLG will look exceptionally good compared to that !
Thanks both, that makes a lot of sense.
Quote from: Dolcile on Nov 20, 2024, 06:25 PMOut of interest, what were the five stocks?
I wondered about that too. It is easier to come up with a list of heart attack stocks on the NZX. Here are a few businesses that strike me as well run. I would be happy to have any of these in my portfolio, at the right price of course.
Hallensteins (for all the reasons Basil listed)
Briscoes
F&P Health
Mainfreight
Infratil
Skellerup
Possibly Vulcan Steel too, but too early to say for sure.
Ryman used to be very highly regarded, but seemed to lose their way
Turners I do not know well enough.
Interested what others would add or debate
Managed to pick up some at $7.40 which was nice.
Aust retail sales out for October from ABS
Clothing stores sales up 4% on last year
Glassons share gains should mean sales up by heaps more
That's pretty good
Looking like a pretty good update at AGM next week ...could be exciting
how do they do it!
cant be true... it must be fake news...well it is the official Aussi numbers site...
is Aussi about to go shopping mad then they finally lower the ocr arrhh!
it will be GO you Good things! Its aussi shopping time...
Will china stimulate there economy and buy lots more stuff from aus.. like high quality grade ore... no wait they can always recycle all those empty cities...
Might fly down to Chch next December for the AGM to celebrate it hitting $10.
A while ago they said 'The first eight weeks of the new financial year have seen Group sales improve by +10.9% on the prior corresponding period. The result to date is driven by good performance from the Australian market, although cycling a negative prior corresponding period, and is not indicative of expectations for the peak trade period to come. The environment in New Zealand remains more challenging as the current economic conditions and cost-of-living pressures continue to impact on consumers spending habits across both brands.
Next week I reckon they will say 'The first eighteen weeks of current financial year have seen Group sales improve by 9.0% on corresponding period. The result is driven by good performance in Australia and we are seeing signs of better market conditions in New Zealand'
Jeez 780 to 714 in a few days big drop ...even allowing for going ex dividend
Punters expecting some bad news on Tuesday
Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 06, 2024, 03:57 PMJeez 780 to 714 in a few days big drop ...even allowing for going ex dividend
Punters expecting some bad news on Tuesday
As you've said, the first 8 weeks were exceptionally good and OZ retail sales seem to still be going strong. Can't be sure, but I'm expecting the news on Tuesday to be pretty good. The drop is probably just short-term dividend hunters taking their profits. Nothing to worry about eh?
Quote from: LoungeLizard on Dec 06, 2024, 06:01 PMAs you've said, the first 8 weeks were exceptionally good and OZ retail sales seem to still be going strong. Can't be sure, but I'm expecting the news on Tuesday to be pretty good. The drop is probably just short-term dividend hunters taking their profits. Nothing to worry about eh?
Glassons going gangbusters
Quote from: Fiordland Moose on Dec 06, 2024, 06:49 PMGlassons going gangbusters
Hmmm. Going gangbusters in the wrong direction at the moment.
Opened this morning at $7.01 - well down from recent high of $7.85, even after allowing for upcoming dividend.
Hopefully, we will be reassured at tomorrow morning's meeting.
My view remains unchanged from post #1262 except to say i see even more compelling value at $7.01 so bought some more this morning. A lot of people use the NZX as a type of automatic teller machine and make withdrawals at this time of year for Xmas and holiday spending. Good time to be putting cash to work especially in high quality growth companies on truly compelling metrics.
Metrics re-gauged from post 1262 for $7.01 price level below.
PE FY25 10.75 FY26 10.4 FY27 9.85
Gross div FY25 10.4 FY26 10.7 FY27 11.1%
Keep in mind these truly compelling metrics are for a company that has quadrupled sales in Glassons Au in the last 7 years.
Quote from: Waltzing on Oct 09, 2022, 08:55 PMOff topic.. almost.
Centre right taking local elections... just wait could be the start of whole new NZ market...
Should sell all MHJ and any shares under water and buy HLG....
instead of a Managed BB where the retail investor is not invtited till the deal is done HLG invites you to take the DIVIDEND in whole not in part.....
Follow the HOUND!!!!
Yep, topped up with a few more myself.
yes well that was before the OCR hit and wasnt reading RBNZ documents all 50 or more pages as the FED had said it all temporary...!!!!
well the its GFC in NZ all over again...
but only in NZ while the US powered on .. the KIWI stayed FLIGHTLESS...
thank goodness for TRA... and if you want to see what happens to RAG's just watch simon reeves in south amercia..
Quote from: Pierre on Dec 09, 2024, 10:09 AMHopefully, we will be reassured at tomorrow morning's meeting.
I hope so too and I'm expecting mid to high single digit sales growth, all off the strength of Glassons Au. Regardless of the number I'm laser focused on the long term trend of Glassons Au growth over time and the fact that the updated metrics I noted in post #1279, are normally associated with no growth companies. James Glasson has quite obviously brough some real brilliance to Glassons Au operations. No easy feat to quadruple sales in the last 7 years with all the pandemic and macroeconomic headwinds that have prevailed for the majority of that timeframe.
Wonder if they'll mention the 227,023 TikTok and 709,329 Instagram followers Glassons have
As Christopher Luxon would attest TikTok is key to being successful and getting one's message out.
Things can only get better eh Basil
IMG_6011.png
Nice uptrend since James Glasson took over Glassons Au.
Quote from: Basil on Dec 09, 2024, 08:50 PMNice uptrend since James Glasson took over Glassons Au.
Good to see that this guy James managed to keep going what Di Humphries did
Di was the one who really got that nice uptrend going turning Glassons around
HlG share price always seems to get hammered ex dividend by significantly more than the dividend amount
Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 10, 2024, 01:03 AMGood to see that this guy James managed to keep going what Di Humphries did
Di was the one who really got that nice uptrend going turning Glassons around
I think Di Humpheries to you is like Tina is to me. We're both in love lol
WOW WOW
For the first 18 weeks of the 2025 financial year Group turnover is up +10.1%, [/size]
Sales growth accelerating
Very good sales update that exceeded my expectations of mid to late single digits.
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/443493/attachment/433812/443493-433812.pdf
I think they have performed remarkably well delivering record profits and dividends despite what they have acknowledged as the toughest trading conditions last year, in decades. Sales up ~ 10% year to date in what is still a very difficult retail environment is especially encouraging as is the gross margin being stable.
No debt, record levels of cash on hand (75 cents a share), strong committed management, low PE, high yield, proven history of quadrupling sales in Australia over the last 7 years with low penetration there and a long runway of growth ahead. Disciplined approach to new store openings based on specific targeted return on investment criteria is mentioned in the announcement and something I really like. Using A.I. to enhance strategies now...what's not to like?
To me, they seem incredibly well positioned to continue to grow in the years ahead as we come off the bottom of the economic cycle.
I think HLG is arguably one of the two most compelling GARP, (growth at a reasonable price) stocks on the NZX.
The metrics they and TRA trade on, considering their very good prospects for growth in the years ahead, offer very deep value in a market which I consider having generally quite stretched metrics. Happy to hold both for many years ahead and enjoy the ride.
TRA and HLG my #1 and #2 individual stock positions. BRM is bigger but that's a fund of ~25 stocks so not a true individual stock position per se.
As expected a very positive agm.
Technology.Starting in Australia all items will have a strip in the label.
This will identify the article.Will really help logistics keeping track of all stock,through HLG supply chain.
Should go a long way to stop shrinkages,and mistakes.
But the real beauty will be it should stop store theft,as it will only be deactivated as it is scanned at the checkout.
Sounds great. Thanks for sharing. Any other matters from the annual meeting to share ?
Growth is based on Australia.
2 to 5 new stores a year.
Plus expanding existing stores where warranted.
New warehouse to open in 2026 is having time spent on design,and is expected to improve logistics.
What is HLG point of difference to struggling retailers.?
They remain close to their customers.
James spends a good amount of time in stores at the coalface.
HLG speed of bringing new designs to retail.
Strong stock turns.
Yet Tim Glasson did point out they had to back their own judgement.
And that only comes from experience.
With their strong cash position,excellent board and management,caution when expanding,always looking to improve all aspects of their business,including online,the next 5 years should be really exciting.
I was surprised that pay back from setting up a new store was under a year.
Aussie landlords remain a very tough breed.If they do not get you on the basic rent they will get you somewhere else.!
Doing business in Australia is a look more expensive than NZ,rents,wages,freight etc.
And they starting to use AI ....that's cool
The NZX is so frickle. This was done at $7 yesterday and now back up to $7.34
Basil have you been feasting this morning? I couldn't move cash around quick enough to take advantage of some low hanging fruit.
Bought a few more yesterday at $7.01. Many thanks to the seller of those shares and merry Christmas to you lol
Thanks for sharing lorraina. I agree the future is very bright and the metrics are so darn compelling. Will you all please stop buying so I can get some more at $7.01 lol
Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 10, 2024, 02:42 PMAnd they starting to use AI ....that's cool
KW mentioned on the weekend to me a comparative retailer in Aus that was on a PE of 18, sorry, forgotten the name, perhaps she will share.
Apply that metric to HLG and the share price would be ~ 80% north of here.
Maybe if as she suggested, they list in Australia and start passing through franking credits on Australian tax, Australian institutions would jump on the bandwagon and rerate them?
Manage +10% sales for full year and stable margin is ~$25m higher Gross Margin than F24
Say expenses up $12m that gives NPAT increase of $9/$10m
FY NPAT going to be over $40m
Even if only $40m that's an EPS of ~66 cents
Apply a Briscoes PE of 16 and share price should be over $10
Where's the BUY button
I found it interesting that Glassons is No.1 clothing retailer in all the Westfield Malls they have a store.
Quote from: lorraina on Dec 10, 2024, 05:30 PMI found it interesting that Glassons is No.1 clothing retailer in all the Westfield Malls they have a store.
An Aussie fund manager friend recently hung out at an Australian Westfields - he reported that it was the busiest store in the mall.
UNI was the other retailer.
UNI PE 17.8, div yield 4.4%
Sales have grown from $112.2m in FY18 to $288.5m in FY24, 2.57 times but well shy of Glassons AU that have quadrupled over a year longer period.
Gross profit margin last year was just on 60%, very similar to HLG. Bell Potter has a price target of $8.85 and see first half sales growing 10.5% and second half 6%, very similar growth rate to HLG but Glassons Au is where all the growth for the HLG group is so Glassons Au growth rate will be faster than UNI.
On a forward FY25 basis:-
I'm with Winner and think mid 60's eps is doable this year, say 65 cps. I expect a similar result to last year for N.Z. operations about $15m after tax = 25.2 cps and I would ascribe a no growth PE of 10 to that = $2.52. Its never grown over time and anyone who thinks it is in the future is way too optimistic.
I think Glassons Au can do 40 cps in FY25 and I think a fair PE is UNI's one as Glassons Au is slightly smaller than all of UNI in terms of sales but is growing faster. Fair value is 40 cps x 18 = $7.20.
Sum of the parts is $9.72. That's my price target one year hence.
Great analysis, Basil. Thank you.
The question I am wondering is whether we need to temper that AU valuation for the fact that we don't get the benefit of franking credits, whereas the AU shareholders of UNI would?
Forbar
Financials: Aug/ 24A 25E 26E 27E
Rev (NZ$m) 435.6 467.5 490.5 515.6
NPAT* (NZ$m) 34.5 42.9 44.6 49.2
EPS* (NZc) 57.8 72.0 74.7 82.4
DPS (NZc) 50.5 61.0 63.5 70.0
Imputation (%) 75 75 75 75
Crikey.Target price $10.00...They are more bullish than Basil...???
Quote from: lorraina on Dec 11, 2024, 07:59 AMForbar
Financials: Aug/ 24A 25E 26E 27E
Rev (NZ$m) 435.6 467.5 490.5 515.6
NPAT* (NZ$m) 34.5 42.9 44.6 49.2
EPS* (NZc) 57.8 72.0 74.7 82.4
DPS (NZc) 50.5 61.0 63.5 70.0
Imputation (%) 75 75 75 75
Crikey.They are more bullish than Basil...???
Yep, they've lost the plot or did numbers after the Christmas piss up ....even more bullish than me lol
That Dividend F25 of 61 cents at 75% imputed .... If one wanted a 8% gross yield you'd pay close to $10
Quote from: lorraina on Dec 11, 2024, 07:59 AMForbar
Financials: Aug/ 24A 25E 26E 27E
Rev (NZ$m) 435.6 467.5 490.5 515.6
NPAT* (NZ$m) 34.5 42.9 44.6 49.2
EPS* (NZc) 57.8 72.0 74.7 82.4
DPS (NZc) 50.5 61.0 63.5 70.0
Imputation (%) 75 75 75 75
Crikey.Target price $10.00...They are more bullish than Basil...???
I must have made a mistake then lol
I think it is very difficult projecting Glasson's Australian growth,because they state 2 to 5 new stores a year,plus expanding some existing stores,while upgrading others.New store opening timing will govern revenue growth.They also stated growing in states they do not currently have a store,however main growth will come from the east coast of Aussie,including Sunshine Plaza at Maroochydore.
James Glasson was very excited about the prospects of their 30% expansion of their Bondi Junction store.
I may have missed heard him but I think he said another store at Bondi.
The following should go a long way to improving margin,as it should stop losses in logistics and store thief.
No mention was made of store thief,but all retailers are struggling with it.
"We are also well into our program of
utilising the latest RFID technology to improve our inventory management."
Quote from: lorraina on Dec 11, 2024, 09:33 AMThe following should go a long way to improving margin,as it should stop losses in logistics and store thief.
No retailer wants to talk about percentage losses on store theft as its a closely guarded commercial secret, but I think it's significant, what they're doing to reduce or mostly eliminate theft.
I had another look and crunched some numbers for people this morning.
If Forbar are right about their 72 cps, (I think they are a little bit optimistic), and 61 cps in dividends 75% imputed I calculate at $7.50 a forward PE of only 10.4 which is ostensibly a no growth PE for a company that I calculate will have grown earnings over the last 5 years by 72 / 46.5 cps = 9% CAGR. You're effectively getting all the growth in Glassons Au for free.
Breaking this down into the Au and N.Z. operations.
Assuming all of the growth mentioned at yesterday's meeting pertains to Glassons Au, (and commentary at the meeting more or less hinted at that) ,I estimate FY25 Glassons Au sales of $252m as compared to $96.6m in FY20 a CAGR of 21%.
Where it gets REALLY interesting is in how eps has grown in the Glassons Au division.
In 2023 there were some major changes to head office cost apportionment that people can read about in the annual report if they wish, and while they don't give specific detail on what head office costs were applied to Glassons Au from FY23 onwards I have interpolated data from 2022, 2023 and 2024 to conservatively estimate this at $4m based on the size of the operations in Australia that year and sales of $192m.
Re-working backwards to 2020, sales of Glassons Au were $96.6m and I estimate if the same accounting methodology had of been applied then at least $2m, probably closer to $3m would have been applied to Glassons Au division profit and divisional profit would have reduced by that much. Sticking with $2m, adjusted eps from Glassons Au in FY20 was 12.3 cps and my estimate of Glassons Au profit for FY25 is 45 cents out of the 72 cents total
On a normalized basis by my calculations after accounting for estimates of head office cost allocation, Glassons Au has grown eps from 12.3 cps to 45 cps in just 5 years, a CAGR of 29.5%!, a rate even faster than the CAGR in sales of 21% which stands to reason with economies of scale.
At $7.50 you're basically getting the amazing growth in Glassons Au for free. No wonder Forbar are saying they're worth $10.
Further, while we wait for the exciting growth in Glassons Au to continue over the next 5 years were getting, (according to Forbar 61 cps in dividends 75% imputed = 61 / 0.79 = 77.2 cps gross = 10.3% gross yield.
So ostensibly what we have here is a company growing overall eps at close to 10%, while paying a 10% gross yield and its trading on a forward PE of ~ 10 and Forbar saying its worth $10. Who would argue with that!
Aren't 4 tens usually a winning hand in poker lol
Crickey...I don't think I have ever seen numbers like this line up for any company.
I'm going with 4 tens; I reckon 9 times out of 10 that's a winner !
Disc: I bought more this morning at $7.55
Apparently Glasson mentioned on of the challenges coming up was the potential of US tariffs might bring in
also keeping an eye on unrest in Bangladesh
This morning I have updated my valuation for HLG. I see intrinsic value that correctly encapsulates the phenomenol growth of Glassons Au as being $13.68.
:o
Jeepers
What's changed?
Quote from: Basil on Dec 13, 2024, 08:10 AMThis morning I have updated my valuation for HLG. I see intrinsic value that correctly encapsulates the phenomenol growth of Glassons Au as being $13.68.
Seems about right ...... had to be higher than Forbars conservative $10.00 eh
Where's the BUY button one asks
its always been undervalued but R = RISK...
retail is RISK.... but you have to wear something and women dont just settle for home dress making anymore...
https://www.huntsmansavilerow.com/?srsltid=AfmBOoqZdsxtMokPPI6ixcFWlXVU14MANgRtMVX-0-tP1ocA1ZIcs7Pf
the market hasnt priced in its now an AUSSI operation..might as well relist...
in fact how much longer do kiwis want to own assets in ever declining KIWI dollars...
Quote from: Dolcile on Dec 13, 2024, 08:25 AM:o
Jeepers
What's changed?
I wasn't at the meeting and when coming up with my previous price target wasn't aware of the accelerated store rollout program of Glasson's Au or the fact that their new store rollout is self-funding, (new store payback period is within a year).
Intrinsic value (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/intrinsicvalue.asp ) is different from a specific price target one year hence and Forbar's price target of $10 this time next year makes good common sense to me and if achieved would give a circa 40% return including capital gain and dividends.
All analysts do a five-year DCF model to come up with their valuation, apply a terminal growth rate after that, in Forbar's case 1.5%, and discount that back to net present value applying an appropriate discount rate for variables such as the long term risk free interest rate, in their case, their assumption is 5%.
This does not properly encapsulate the value of the full runway of the growth opportunity in Australia. Consider this. Glasson's Au, currently with 38 stores which is a very small number for a market that size, (N.Z. market 34 stores), can self-fund a 10% CAGR in the number of stores in Australia for the next 16 years to end with a target of 175 stores and would still only have the same level of retail footprint for the size of the Au population as Glasson's NZ does now.
Glasson's Au has grown sales at a CAGR of 21% in the last 5 years, (keep in mind that's over the pandemic era). If that continues for the next 5 years sales there will be circa $650m and combined sales of all other divisions, (Glasson's N.Z., Hallensteins N.Z. and Hallensteins Au) are likely to stay the same in my opinion, currently about $230m. All other divisions would then amount to just 25% of total group sales, FY25 estimate just under 50%.. That's a huge change.
Through the natural process of Glasson's Au's very strong growth , the handbrake of the no growth divisions will dramatically reduce as a percentage of overall group sales in the years ahead. That has serious implication for the growth rate of overall group sales and the appropriate PE the market will ascribe in the future. (Note: We are already at the point of inflection this year when Glasson's Au sales will comfortably eclipse all other divisions combined.).
Given that Glasson's Au will dominate in future years, and we are at the point of inflection now, I have emailed the board suggesting they initiate a dual listing on the ASX. That way, hopefully, Australian investors may be able to have their dividends franked. Many Australian institutions are unable to invest without an ASX listing and my contention to the board is with Glasson's Au becoming the dominant position it makes sense to list there at some stage in the near future.
Finally, Glasson's and Hallensteins are very old brands here with circa 100 years and 150 years trading operations in N.Z.
Its clear the market here is saturated with stores. Glasson's Au is a very young cool brand in Australia, and they are only now starting to enjoy economies of scale there. $250m sales in Glasson's AU is not huge in the context of the market size there and market penetration in Australia is still very low.
HLG shareholders have a very exciting future ahead of them in my opinion. That we're being paid a circa 10% yield while all this exciting growth plays out in the years ahead is something I find truly remarkable. Have people missed the boat at $7.64?. Not at all, the share price was at this level about 4 years ago in February 2021 when Glassons Au sales were about half the level they will be this year. I'd better not say any more, stop typing and do more buying lol
Awesome write up Basil.
The only part I'd question is.... what are the analysis smoking ...a 5% discount rate is significantly below the WACC used for regulated / monopoly style businesses.
Thanks mate, that's just their risk-free rate assumption. They're discounting back using a WACC of 11.2%
Top ten winners and losers for the year on the NZX and some good thoughts for the year ahead, contains quite a bit of commentary on HLG so I decided to post it in here. Paywalled https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/the-sharemarkets-winners-and-losers-for-2024-stock-takes/QR7LSC3JJRCY5KSEX7TRTXJLPQ/
P.S. I was watching CNBC this morning and they had a segment on old fashioned investing for dividend yield. (as we all know tech stocks are all the rage in the US) The one good point I took from that was look for companies with the real prospects of growing dividends in the years ahead. The large fund manager they had on there said he looked for companies that were growing dividends nicely and offered at least a 2% dividend yield. I had a good chuckle about that 2% number lol He cited Costco as a good example of a great company that can grow dividends very nicely in the years ahead. On a PE of just under 60 and offering a yield of about 2% that should grow well in the years ahead. Made for a bloody good comparison to HLG metrics lol
Really emphasizes Mark Listers point in the above linked article that overseas markets have had a really good run whereas the NZX hasn't, and we are overdue for one. In that article I was surprised HLG was in the top ten performers this year, (no 6) on the NZX with total gains of over 58%. I think the chances of a repeat of a similar percentage in 2025 are very good indeed.
As mentioned a few times already, my contention with HLG is actually quite simple. You're getting a company with a well proven track record of growth with Glasson's Au, a group CAGR in eps of 9% over the last 5 years, (Glassons Au CAGR in eps 29.5%), (noting the last 5 years have been extremely challenging), with a very long runway of strong growth ahead, for ostensibly for a no growth PE price based on FY25 forecast metrics. That says very clearly to me, there's a really good opportunity here for serious market outperformance in the years ahead.
Aah - risk free rate - that makes much more sense - thanks !
HLG pride themselves on staying on trend, being agile, high quality fashion, exciting and engaging store experiences, amazing online experience, social media platforms etc etc etc
Has worked with Glassons AU but made no impact in NZ
NZ might be old and mature as Basil points out but you'd think that some of that good stuff would rub off on NZ consumers
Got to be a story here somewhere .....I might need to work out whether it's marketing / cultural / economic or whatever which works in one country and a failure in another.
Just for interest sake here's a chart showing NZ market share of apparel market as per Stats NZ data (had to guess Hallensteins AU and deduct from reported Hallensteins sales).
Pretty dismal eh ...esp compared to Australia
IMG_6015.png
Interesting chart, thanks for posting Winner. My takeaway from that is that the brands are so mature here and the Covid era lockdowns and subsequent recession here has been so severe, (keep in mind many economists have said it's been worse for retail here than the GFC), that relatively poorer N.Z. consumers have started shopping online more with the likes of Temu. Notable from that chart is that market share was quite stable until the pandemic hit in 2020. Maybe market share increases back again as cost-of-living pressures come off Kiwi consumers over the next 2 years ?
Gosh, won't the profit for the group be "interesting" when HLG eventually get to a 5% market share in AU ! What are they now, just under 1% from memory ?
P.S. Nice big juicy dividend hit my bank account this morning. Many thanks to the hard working team at HLG.
No dividend reinvestment program so I've been running my own one this week but got a bit carried away, and have reinvested 8 times as much as the divvy lol
Quote from: winner (n) on Sep 30, 2024, 05:12 PMJust for you Basil ...Glassons AU market share trend
Not even 1% of total retail clothing sector innOZ .....imagine the potential
IMG_5922.png
It's 0.9% share basil
It's 0.9% share basil
Quote from: Basil on Dec 13, 2024, 11:11 AMThe large fund manager they had on there said he looked for companies that were growing dividends nicely and offered at least a 2% dividend yield. I had a good chuckle about that 2% number lol He cited Costco as a good example of a great company that can grow dividends very nicely in the years ahead. On a PE of just under 60 and offering a yield of about 2% that should grow well in the years ahead. Made for a bloody good comparison to HLG metrics lol
Americans prefer companies to not pay dividends and instead do share buybacks. Thats because the tax payable on capital gains is far lower than the tax paid on dividends.
I'd probably prefer that HLG did the same - given most of the profit will come from AU and we can't benefit from the franking credits.
Deleted
Dividend day today....cool stuff
Heaps more next year
Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 13, 2024, 04:08 PMDividend day today....cool stuff
Heaps more next year
I liked Warren Bell's closing meeting remarks about buying gift vouchers as Christmas gifts. Done that a few times already and always seems to be warmly appreciated by the recipients. Warren thinks we should spend some of our dividend in HLG stores. I reckon reinvesting it in more HLG shares is a far better idea.
Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 13, 2024, 04:08 PMDividend day today....cool stuff
Heaps more next year
Heaps more next April and I now have heaps more shares on board too. Increased by 40% in the last week since the annual meeting.
Now equalized with my #1 invested position on the NZX in Turners because I can't decide which one I like better lol. Need to mull that over a fair bit more over the holidays. Both have so many attributes I like. Suspect this one has a much longer runway of growth in Australia and James Glasson is doing an absolutely brilliant job there but on the other hand Todd Hunter and Aaron are such incredibly astute operators and then there's the once in a lifetime brilliance of the Tina marketing campaign. Such a tough choice which is better, so I have a classic "each way" investment strategy going on now. It's going to be an interesting horse race in the years ahead. Expecting a true "champion's performance" from both....could be a photo finish which goes up the most over the next 5 years.
"$8 by Christmas". Winner mate, you're a bloody legend !
Quote from: Basil on Dec 18, 2024, 01:03 PM"$8 by Christmas". Winner mate, you're a bloody legend !
$10 by Easter I reckon
New all time high on heavy volume. Looks well set up for a sustained run higher this summer. Forbar have eps forecast at 72 cps for FY25 so still only a forward PE of 11.1. Nobody has missed the boat at this point in my opinion. 11.1 is still stupidly cheap for the very strong growth in Glasson's Au.
Briscoes on a forward PE of 16 with declining eps last two years and set to decline again this year. No real prospect of ever growing again either. You'd need your head looked at owning them over HLG given the difference in prospects for growth and the significant difference in metrics.
This has been a nice little earner for me so far. Got in just recently at $7.4ps - so later than most - but picked up the dividend and sitting at a nice unrealised gain.
Good stuff mate, good to have you on board. Very early days. Sit back and enjoy the ride. The expansion in Glassons Au is going to be HUGE over the next 5 years. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/hallenstein-glasson-best-dressed-as-nzx-dips-on-light-volume/3VKVA7KYUFBTDAWHM5HAPU2F24/
Wow, $8.3 close
interesting that NZ retail only stocks except TRA have stalled...
AUSSI not so...
Wonder if the south pacific needs an EU style zone with the Kanga the currency...
how long before NZ realises its going no where...
Brisc stalled have some holders dumped and moved over already?
Very interesting to read AI C4 summary's of the HLG versus TRA...
HLG v TRA
Thanks for doing that mate, I posted that in the TRA thread. Hard to decide which I like the most, so I have a 16% portfolio allocation to both. Both exceptionally well managed companies still trading on truly compelling metrics despite recent strength in their share prices.
Glasson's Au have the longer readily apparent runway for growth in Australia, (can expand retail footprint by a CAGR of 10% for the next 16 years and its self-funding as each stores fit-out pays for itself in about a year but the way Todd and Aaron are driving TRA ahead so strongly, once they have achieved market saturation here at some future long distant date I wouldn't completely rule out them possibly dipping their toes into the water in Australia and having a go over there so their runway of growth might be more than what's readily apparent.
Which do i like more...I can't decide so have backed up the truck properly on both of them lol
One last thing. HLG has just gone ex divvy whereas TRA trades cum a 7 cps fully imputed dividend payable in late January.
Jenny Ruth hands out awards. Seems she also thinks HLG deserves the "golden bone" award lol
This one is free to access. https://justthebusinessjennyruth.substack.com/p/accolades-and-brickbats-for-2024
Even after their profit downgrade Briscoes still trading on PE of ~15
HLG have sales growth and de facto profit upgrades
HLG on same multiple is share price above 10 bucks
Where's the BUY button?
winner() its at an all TIME HIGH..
and now what does that say about AUSSI retail and should all kiwi's exchange there KIWI coins for AUSSI dollars..
its a proxy for the KANGA now...what does it say about the NZ economy..versus the AUSSI..long term that country still got stuff under the ground and lots of it..
Speaking of FX.....current NZD/USD cross rates suggest extra annual cost of sales for HLG of $10-$12m based on FY24 volumes. Half of this increase should be covered by existing forward exchange contracts, and some of the impact may be softened by translating AUD profits back to NZD at better FX rates.
yes FG while the house holds in NZ may have a better balance sheet than the GOVT , its the government interest debt repayments as Rated by rating agencies that can effect the NZ dollar as exports may not ride to rescue...
HLG is not big enough to ride out oceans storms.. and it highs in SP have never lasted long...
always a first time though...
Quote from: Ferg on Jan 12, 2025, 12:08 PMSpeaking of FX.....current NZD/USD cross rates suggest extra annual cost of sales for HLG of $10-$12m based on FY24 volumes. Half of this increase should be covered by existing forward exchange contracts, and some of the impact may be softened by translating AUD profits back to NZD at better FX rates.
From memory, all committed purchases have 100% forward cover, (so that would be all of Autumn 2025 stock and possibly some of the winter stock) and 50% forward cover on everything else expected in the next 12 months. Seems like quite a pragmatic way to manage foreign exchange risk and leaves plenty of time to renegotiate terms with suppliers as they have in the past when the $US was super strong and / or, reset retail asking prices if necessary. From the annual meeting, James Glasson said he doesn't like changing prices unless it's really necessary. It may become necessary if the record strength of the $US proves to be quite persistent. $16.95 for a sexy bikini instead of $15.95 isn't going to impact demand much next summer I would have thought.
There are certain price points in retail you have to careful going above [in the short term].
I would think this is what James was alluding to.
https://www.glassons.com/nz/c/clothing/swimwear. I see what you and James are getting at. A lot of these articles were originally $19.99 so he doesn't want to break the $20 price point and it's not like they can use much less fabric in the garment as an alternative to a price increase is it lol
Quote from: Basil on Jan 13, 2025, 11:10 AMFrom memory, all committed purchases have 100% forward cover, (so that would be all of Autumn 2025 stock and possibly some of the winter stock) and 50% forward cover on everything else expected in the next 12 months
Here is the policy and well remembered:
QuoteAll committed foreign currency requirements are fully hedged, and approximately 50% (2023: 50%) of anticipated foreign currency requirements are hedged on a rolling twelve month basis.
Total cover in place was NZ$65m at the end of last year on annual COGS of $177m. Of the $65m, $24m covered payables of $25m (is this what they mean by 'committed'? Although I would have thought that would include purchases not yet invoiced by suppliers). The rest (being $41m) will be the 50% part. I don't expect all purchases will be in USD but the majority will be. 65 on 177 is well shy of 50% with no adjustment for commitments - it could be with the strong USD that HLG are not pushing all the way up to 50%..? So I still see some exposure here. If not FY25 then the policy may hamstring HLG for FY26 in the events rates turn. This is where some flexibility is needed and I'm not fussed if they are light on forward USD cover given HLG pays one way or the other given the current cross rate.
I would have thought a commitment is made when they place an order for production but as you suggest, $65m at least at face value is a lot less than what you would have expected in they were following their stated risk management FX policy. I'm not losing any sleep over it though as HLG's management capabilities are second to none and I note if Forbar's FY25 forecast is correct and they earn 72 cps, HLG trade on a forward PE of 11.5 and that's for a company with a 5 year EPS CAGR of 9%.
By way of comparison, Briscoes with declining earnings in recent years is on a PE of 16.5, (assuming $67m net profit = 30 cps).
Either HLG is outstanding value for a GARP stock or Briscoes is a bit overpriced, but most likely in my opinion, both.
its going to be a very interesting year ....
more rates cuts from RBNZ than any other market?
watch out for china as its the fire breathing dragon and its very very dangerous...
you dont want to be hit by another world stock market crisis with out having gun powder dry and ready... probably a year or two before that happens but that is what we said about covid.. plenty of time to sell out... until there wasnt...
Looks like a bit of a retrenchment going on - down 40c on the recent high. Wonder if we have seen peak HLG or whether it will surge again come dividend time. Perhaps $8 is the natural cap for a retail stock in a risky, cyclical industry, regardless of HLG's good form in maintaining growth?
Disc. Holding
Some retracement in Aussie retail stocks has hit HLG. For me, its never about artificially created markers like is $8 a natural fit and its all about earnings and earnings growth. If HLG can earn 72 cps this year as Forsyth Barr are forecasting that's a 5 year CAGR of 9% and I think as Glassons Au becomes the dominant division in the years ahead the growth rate could conceivably accelerate.
My standard great value valuation screener tool is a PE of 8.5 for a no growth company + 1G (where G is the average growth rate for the last 5 years as long as I'm confident it can continue for the next 5 years at least), and that suggests HLG could be trading on a forward PE of 17.5, (8.5 + 9) (similar to UNI or MYR) which would put it at $12.60 on forward metrics and still be a great value GARP stock trading in line with its real peers.
Heck, even Briscoes with earnings going backwards and absolutely no scope for growth in Australia and very little if any in N.Z. is on a current year PE of 16.5 based on their reduced forecast.
Disc: HLG and TRA are cornerstone portfolio holdings which combined, constitute approx. one third of my portfolio. Nobody can accuse me of not putting my money where my mouth is lol.
pastel points ... its seems to have a history of undervalue .. it now looks to be almost built in...just shows a market has its own behaviours..
Tina looks to be the difference..
Quote from: Waltzing on Jan 15, 2025, 03:00 PMpastel points ... its seems to have a history of undervalue .. it now looks to be almost built in...just shows a market has its own behaviours..
Tina looks to be the difference..
Indeed. The Market will determine a stocks value regardless of what we, or the back of an envelope calculation, might suggest it is worth. There are natural SP resistance points beyond which it is very hard to break. I can't imagine a lot of people wanting to pay $10 or even $9 for HLG, given the volatile industry it operates in. In other words I don't see a lot of SP growth coming beyond $8-$8.50 range and with the yield getting squeezed, even at current levels, the risk/reward ratio is starting to give cautious investors like myself pause for thought. A lot is riding on OZ store expansion to yield the same sort of boost to earnings as it has in the past, and that sort of extrapolation is built on some risky premises, not the least being that brand recognition doesn't turn to brand fatigue, as it has in NZ.
I would expect a bounce back as we near April's dividend and the decision for investors is whether to hold on for that and hope for the best ex-dividend, or cash up on the cum-dividend high. I'm in two minds, as of now.
It's very early days for Glasson's Au and they've only just hit critical mass there. Sustained and very rewarding growth to come in the decades ahead.
Quote from: Basil on Jan 16, 2025, 12:04 PMIt's very early days for Glasson's Au and they've only just hit critical mass there. Sustained and very rewarding growth to come in the decades ahead.
True in itself, but the question in my mind is whether the market will be prepared to pay an even higher premium share price that HLG is now demanding. I don't think that's a given, even if HLG continues to do well.
PE expansion a real prospect in the years ahead in my view as Glassons Au and the growth there increasing dominate group sales.
As it currently stands Forbar reckon they currently trade on metrics slightly below their historical average, from memory average is 11.6 and currently on forward PE of 11.25.
Even if there's no PE expansion, eps CAGR over the last 5 years is 9% if they hit this year's 72 cps target and the gross yield is circa 9% so even if HLG continues to trade in line with its historical metrics which in my view are very attractive, one can expect a top yield and share price growth over time consistent with eps growth. 9% yield and 9% eps growth = 18% per annum expected average return over the next 5 years. That's how I see it FWIW.
Regulars here will be well aware I think Glasson's Au can continue to grow strongly in the years ahead fueling attractive eps and dps growth.
Quote from: LoungeLizard on Jan 16, 2025, 12:58 PMTrue in itself, but the question in my mind is whether the market will be prepared to pay an even higher premium share price that HLG is now demanding. I don't think that's a given, even if HLG continues to do well.
Forbar estimates for FY27 are EPS 82.4 and DPS 70.0 with 75% imputation (that's about 90 cps gross).
Hard to believe the SP won't follow that trajectory.
Quote from: Pierre on Jan 16, 2025, 01:22 PMForbar estimates for FY27 are EPS 82.4 and DPS 70.0 with 75% imputation (that's about 90 cps gross).
Hard to believe the SP won't follow that trajectory.
I guess Forbar is basing those figures on an assumed growth path that follows what has gone before, which is not always true in a volatile industry. But even if correct, are you saying that the market will pay $10 per share (let's say) for a fashion stock, regardless of the elevated risk as the SP goes higher? I wouldn't, but that's because I'm risk averse. I'm holding on for the usual surge before the divvy, but my inclination is to sell down/out at that point.
James Glasson has quadrupled sales in Glassons Au since he took over in 2017. Keep in mind all the incredible retail challenges since Covid 5 years ago and the fact that we're currently at the bottom of the economic cycle when considering the significance of that.
Market penetration there is less than one fifth of the level here but if you can't see the opportunity for strong ongoing growth in the years ahead, by all means go ahead and sell. I suppose after a 10:1 split they'd be cheap like WHS at $1 lol
Quote from: Basil on Jan 16, 2025, 02:33 PMJames Glasson has quadrupled sales in Glassons Au since he took over in 2017. Keep in mind all the incredible retail challenges since Covid 5 years ago and the fact that we're currently at the bottom of the economic cycle when considering the significance of that.
Market penetration there is less than one fifth of the level here but if you can't see the opportunity for strong ongoing growth in the years ahead, by all means go ahead and sell. I suppose after a 10:1 split they'd be cheap like WHS at $1 lol
I do agree that HLG management have done a fantastic job and there's a potential long runway of growth in Australia. Balancing that is questions about whether each new store can replicate the earnings of the previous. Will the Aussie retail sector continue to grow? Will the NZ economy continue to weigh down the business? Will the projected Trump tariff regime slow China's growth and the OZ export industry? And will investors continue to see value in a "risky" stock that is demanding a premium price?
Analysts forecasts tend to be too narrowly focussed and investors need to look at the wider macroeconomic picture if they're going to buy heavily in HLG. And lets face it - for most people $80k is a hell of a lot of money just to get 10,000 HLG shares!
Quote from: Basil on Jan 16, 2025, 02:33 PMJames Glasson has quadrupled sales in Glassons Au since he took over in 2017. Keep in mind all the incredible retail challenges since Covid 5 years ago and the fact that we're currently at the bottom of the economic cycle when considering the significance of that.
Market penetration there is less than one fifth of the level here but if you can't see the opportunity for strong ongoing growth in the years ahead, by all means go ahead and sell. I suppose after a 10:1 split they'd be cheap like WHS at $1 lol
Exactly. There is a very long runway for growth for HLG in Australia especially for the highly successful Glassons brand both by opening new stores in locations not currently serviced plus expanding and/ or relocating existing outlets. They can also expand the modest Hallensteins footprint over there too.
If we were just looking for growth from the existing representation I would share LL's concerns, but there's an exciting future ahead so I'm hanging on for the ride. There will be both capital gain and dividend growth to enjoy.
Quote from: Pierre on Jan 16, 2025, 03:31 PMbut there's an exciting future ahead so I'm hanging on for the ride. There will be both capital gain and dividend growth to enjoy.
Indeed, a very exciting and rewarding future ahead. People like me who are not far off retiring need to consider not just the dividend yield, but the excellent prospects for dividend growth in the years ahead. Same thematic applies at Turners.
Quote from: Pierre on Jan 16, 2025, 03:31 PMExactly. There is a very long runway for growth for HLG in Australia especially for the highly successful Glassons brand both by opening new stores in locations not currently serviced plus expanding and/ or relocating existing outlets. They can also expand the modest Hallensteins footprint over there too.
If we were just looking for growth from the existing representation I would share LL's concerns, but there's an exciting future ahead so I'm hanging on for the ride. There will be both capital gain and dividend growth to enjoy.
Good luck to you both, you may well be right.
The only other thing I have to mention that concerns me about HLG is the very low liquidity. Good when things are on a roll , but can be catastrophic if the market turns. Something to bear in mind perhaps.
And on that, I have noticed some questionable trading in HLG - very small parcels being bought/sold at high/low prices. I know some traders are into that sort of thing and it's perfectly legal, but it can distort things somewhat.
Quote from: Basil on Jan 16, 2025, 03:36 PMIndeed, a very exciting and rewarding future ahead. People like me who are not far off retiring need to consider not just the dividend yield, but the excellent prospects for dividend growth in the years ahead. Same thematic applies at Turners.
I'm already retired and share your enthusiasm for both HLG and TRA - they jointly account for 40% of my portfolio. They provide me with a very healthy dividend income which I'm confident will continue to grow well ahead of the inflation rate in the coming years.
its just well ....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kHBCszPYHBU
in a time when most retail share have taken it hit it has done reverse...
maybe the lack of liquidity has been the driver as stated above its very light...
think mentioned before a share split for this one is on the cards along with listening in OZ... but who want to pay for two exchanges if you dont have to...
as it grows more AUSSIE dollars will want to invest and the kanga goes farther... puts more pressure on the SP..
picking the upswing in this one either share luck or great insightful thinking ... truly a once in a two decade occurrence.
Quote from: Waltzing on Jan 16, 2025, 09:02 PMits just well ....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kHBCszPYHBU
in a time when most retail share have taken it hit it has done reverse...
maybe the lack of liquidity has been the driver as stated above its very light...
think mentioned before a share split for this one is on the cards along with listening in OZ... but who want to pay for two exchanges if you dont have to...
as it grows more AUSSIE dollars will want to invest and the kanga goes farther... puts more pressure on the SP..
picking the upswing in this one either share luck or great insightful thinking ... truly a once in a two decade occurrence.
Yes, with such low liquidity a few "players" can send the SP one way or the other with ease. Yesterday the VWAP was $8.11 but at the death it was pumped up to $8.29 by a very small trade. This morning it dumps back to $8.09 on low volume and now there's one buyer wanting to buy one share at $8.20. HLG are not the only stock that are prone to this sort of thing, the NZX is probably rife with it.
OK, this is just for entertainment purposes ... stock valuations (no matter who provides them) are always just random numbers supported by models fed with random estimates which can't predict the future better than anybody else. Garbage in - garbage out.
I happened however to notice that Simply Wall Street is leaning itself recently very far out of the window:
https://simplywall.st/stocks/nz/retail/nzx-hlg/hallenstein-glasson-holdings-shares/valuation
$22,56 per share - now wouldn't this be amazing? Funny thing is - just a month or so ago they said $8.65 per share (and I thought that's for SWS a reasonable estimate). Just wondering what happened since then?
Just imagine if Glassons started using Tina in their marketing
Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 20, 2025, 09:59 AMJust imagine if Glassons started using Tina in their marketing
Good point - and if they start selling MAGA (Make America Gay Again) hats on top of that, the opportunities would be limitless :) ;
HLG drops 3% on 500 shares traded :o
Quote from: Dolcile on Jan 21, 2025, 11:07 AMHLG drops 3% on 500 shares traded :o
No surprise with president Dump now in office. This is just the beginning ;) ;
Not sure what effect if any on trade between, say Bangldesh where they source a lot of product and New Zealand and Australia ?
People still need clothes and want to look good even if there is some minor effect from Trump.
I'm not concerned in the slightest.
Quote from: Basil on Jan 21, 2025, 11:36 AMNot sure what effect if any on trade between, say Bangldesh where they source a lot of product and New Zealand and Australia ?
People still need clothes and want to look good even if there is some minor effect from Trump.
I'm not concerned in the slightest.
How does HLG manage the currency? Cross Rate USD/NZD is terrible and only likely to go lower over the next few months. That would be my only concern in short term.
The young ones who they target primarily love to shop and spend
Quote from: Dolcile on Jan 21, 2025, 11:07 AMHLG drops 3% on 500 shares traded :o
Live by the sword, die by the sword. SO easy for this stock to attain artificial highs and lows on meagre trading. I note there's now a few individuals bidding for a few ten's of stock trying to boost the SP back up.
I wonder if HLG's NZX50 inclusion could be threatened by such low liquidity?
Quote from: Greekwatchdog on Jan 21, 2025, 11:48 AMHow does HLG manage the currency? Cross Rate USD/NZD is terrible and only likely to go lower over the next few months. That would be my only concern in short term.
Refer posts 1338 to 1344 for a couple of posts on this topic:
https://stocktalk.co.nz/index.php?topic=132.msg28194#msg28194
Quote from: LoungeLizard on Jan 21, 2025, 11:55 AMLive by the sword, die by the sword. SO easy for this stock to attain artificial highs and lows on meagre trading. I note there's now a few individuals bidding for a few ten's of stock trying to boost the SP back up.
I wonder if HLG's NZX50 inclusion could be threatened by such low liquidity?
There's low liquidity in a lot of stocks at present. I think a lot of professional investors and fund managers are still on holiday.
Interesting that the $U.S. dropped about 1% on a trade weighted basis, (Kiwi and Aussie dollar jumped by a commensurate amount), the day of Trump's inauguration.
Interesting that the $U.S. dropped about 1% on a trade weighted basis, (Kiwi and Aussie dollar jumped by a commensurate amount), the day of Trump's inauguration.
[/quote]
Well CPI due tomorrow so be interesting to see where the NZD goes after that and it looks a given we get a 50 point cut to interest rates on the 19th Feb.
Quote from: Greekwatchdog on Jan 21, 2025, 01:02 PMWell CPI due tomorrow so be interesting to see where the NZD goes after that and it looks a given we get a 50 point cut to interest rates on the 19th Feb.
Hope so, the economy desperately needs it and lower interest rates make high yield stocks like HLG much more attractive to investors. I would say a 50-bps cut has been fully built into market expectations ever since the last cut in November last year.
https://www.interest.co.nz/business/131538/monthly-retail-spending-figures-ended-year-stronger-footing-after-much-weakness
https://7news.com.au/news/millers-and-noni-b-to-be-wound-up-as-receivers-for-parent-company-mosaic-brands-fail-to-secure-buyer-c-17546183
https://7news.com.au/news/millers-and-noni-b-to-be-wound-up-as-receivers-for-parent-company-mosaic-brands-fail-to-secure-buyer-c-17546183
Its a shame that Rivers is also being wound up. They make really awesome shoes.
Less competition for Glassons from all these receiverships.
Noting HLG touched an all-time high today of $8.54 on very strong volume.
Yep, all those customers need to shop elsewhere and I betcha they'll be surprised with the offering and say to themselves wish I had known about Glassons earlier
I expect Glassons Australia will be offered some excellent sites by Mall landlords.
Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 30, 2025, 07:04 PMYep, all those customers need to shop elsewhere and I betcha they'll be surprised with the offering and say to themselves wish I had known about Glassons earlier
Last time I looked nonib target customers were 45 - 65yrs and millers 50+ yrs.
I'd say if the mums and grandmas from nonib start turning up at Glassons were the daughters shop....there will be trouble. Maybe Glassons can add some plus sizes for the new market opportunity..lol
Probably get an update from HLG in next week or two ...with profit guidance for first half
ABS report clothing sales in December were 5% ahead of last year ...add Glassons share gains to that and its looking good
Expect good news and HLG share price over 9 bucks by end of month
Quote from: winner (n) on Feb 04, 2025, 09:41 AMProbably get an update from HLG in next week or two ...with profit guidance for first half
ABS report clothing sales in December were 5% ahead of last year ...add Glassons share gains to that and its looking good
Expect good news and HLG share price over 9 bucks by end of month.
You've got a very good track record with price predictions with this one.
Trading on only 12 times FY 25 earnings with a 5 year CAGR of 9% in eps and a huge runway for growth in Australia, (5 year CAGR in sales 21% and eps 29% with Glassons Au), it's a very high conviction hold for me. 17% portfolio allocation, my biggest equal with Turners.
its just unbelievable....
Quote from: Basil on Feb 04, 2025, 10:16 AMYou've got a very good track record with price predictions with this one.
Trading on only 12 times FY 25 earnings with a 5 year CAGR of 9% in eps and a huge runway for growth in Australia, (5 year CAGR in sales 21% and eps 29% with Glassons Au), it's a very high conviction hold for me. 17% portfolio allocation, my biggest equal with Turners.
I am thinking of topping up, my only concern is the weak NZ $ and how it could affect things.Your thoughts on this Basil please?
Hey Playa. There was some good discussion a while back on FX risk management and their headging policies. I expect some modest degree of margin compression in FY 26 more than offset by a gradual economic recovery on both sides of the Tasman and ongoing store expansion. Beyound that in FY27 and further out its anyone's guess what FX will be but HLG have a well proven track record and management are hugely experienced with managing those risks. I topped up with a few more at $8.47 recently.
OK, it is a great company and amazing what money they make by selling cheap South East Asian made rags in competition with temu, Mountain Warehouse and Shein. On the other hand - they used to by cyclical, and the Bollinger bands look sort of ominous. Yes, I know, we only know for sure after the event, but I found so far no method to sell at last months prices ... unless, obviously the price went up since then.
I was wondering, whether to give in to greed or caution and did set a really high sell target. Somebody took my parcel today at peak level from my hands.
Question is - will I ;D or :'( come Monday? Anyway, it was a nice ride ....
The trend is your friend for holders.
Quadruplling of Glassons Au sales since James Glasson took over is incredible.
You are right that they used to be a cyclical company and there's no growth in N.Z operations but Glassons Au has been really transformative for HLG in a similar way to how Tina has been transformative for Turners and sales of Glassons Aui will exceed all other divisions combined in FY25 and it's onwards and upwards from there.
Monday is not the issue for you as I see it. Look back in a few years and you'll see what you've missed mate. Huge divvy due in April which you will miss. Selling in a confirmed uptrend is usually a very bad idea. Good luck finding a more compelling N.Z share.
Hit a fresh all time high yesterday of $8.55. KW is quite right that you should never sell stocks in a strong uptrend.
Looking forward to strong first half guidance likely to be announced in the next week or thereabouts and a huge dividend in April.
Quote from: Basil on Feb 07, 2025, 06:34 PMThe trend is your friend for holders.
Quadruplling of Glassons Au sales since James Glasson took over is incredible.
You are right that they used to be a cyclical company and there's no growth in N.Z operations but Glassons Au has been really transformative for HLG in a similar way to how Tina has been transformative for Turners and sales of Glassons Aui will exceed all other divisions combined in FY25 and it's onwards and upwards from there.
Monday is not the issue for you as I see it. Look back in a few years and you'll see what you've missed mate. Huge divvy due in April which you will miss. Selling in a confirmed uptrend is usually a very bad idea. Good luck finding a more compelling N.Z share.
Interesting - and I guess we both don't know the future. I like to compare the current situation with the 1930'íes - a bunch of lawless autocrats first isolating their respective countries and subsequently starting to kill each other.
While actually the share indices didn't change that much, individual stocks tended to rapid cycle (a function of the high uncertainty). Does this sound familiar? I guess nobody knows (probably not even himself) which tariffs president Dump is charging next week, and which country he wants to bully next by threatening to take their territory.
Pretty much like pre WW II (just that Hitler played at that stage Dumps role). While at that stage stocks went all over the place, I doubt, that any rug trader selling cheap but sort of fancy looking Bangladeshi, Indian and Chinese goods was in a constant uptrend. So - sure, I might lose another dollar in the SP, but not too concerned that I've lost a lot compared to a few years to come.
Must be time for a wartime portfolio ... I am accumulating stuff you need for a wartime economy: Weapons (and all you need to produce and equip them - steel, chemistry) , rugged equipment, trucks, farm bikes, agricultureal supplies, steel, food, quality outdoor gear, blankets and similar. Good to watch Palestine and Ukraine - if they could need it, it probably will be a seller during Dumps one thousand years of reign. Just remember - Hitlers 1000 years took just a dozen, and Dumps 1000 years (I hear he started talking about an unconstitutional third term) - who knows, but certainly not thousand cycles of planet earth around the sun.
So - not too worried I will miss out too much, but I am sure, KW and you will manage as well to get out when the music stops. Just remember the narrow exit - liquidity is terrible, and I recon there might be others who want to leave at the same time. Good examples in India to learn from how terrible stampedes can end.
Hey BP,
I appreciate your grasp of history but I am not sure young people who want to look cool in HLG gear care in the slightest.
Very good history of Glassons Au sales steadily gaining market share. Probably up to 1% this year from about 0.3% when James Glasson took over in 2017. Has a VERY long runway of growth in Australia to get to the same 5% as here. I expect sales in Glassons Au to top $250m this year and grow to cica $500m by 2030.
Another new all time high today. $12 to $13 wouldn't surprise me at all sometime late next year.
Yep ATH today ...hit $8.75 intraday
That's good
Last year they updated first half guidance on 22 February, so we don't have long to wait. Expecting a solid trading update and looking forward to a huge dividend in April and many years of strong growth ahead as the economy on both sides of the Tasman steadily recovers.
More than 8 years of extraordinary growth with Glassons Au and a VERY long runway of growth ahead, undemanding metrics and a very attractive gross yield together with the strong TA uptrend all underpin a compelling long term investment case.
All this growth over the years without ever issuing new shares, not even a DRIP scheme, is deeply impressive. You have to reinvest the dividends yourself which is what I usually do. Who's getting to $10 first, HLG or Turners lol.
wow ... HLG has defied gravity and is no longer the HLG of old with predictable patterns of sell off's...
if NO major global sell off in 2027-28 , well thats just a chance to get in big as sad as that may be...
just look at european stocks over night... who though that the TRUMP kick in the european pants would result in CNBC talking up European stocks!!!
Well if australia doesnt suffer a tick up the ... from trump that market should put HLG in the front running for first....
but if people just think TINA then who else do you sell your second hand car to...
Just TINA that old bomb...TINA IT..
HLG already 8.6... no contest.. HLG
Looking forward to a solid first half sales update early / mid this coming week and strong first half profit guidance.
Quote from: Basil on Feb 23, 2025, 01:23 PMLooking forward to a solid first half sales update early / mid this coming week and strong first half profit guidance.
I hope we get a positive announcement from HLG Wednesday morning. It would be nice to see some green ink instead of the last couple of days of red - and not just for HLG either.
Yeah, almost everything has been reamed by Ryman in the last 2 days.
Still no news. They must have lots of beans to count. Maybe tomorrow?
Quote from: Pierre on Feb 26, 2025, 12:11 PMStill no news. They must have lots of beans to count. Maybe tomorrow?
Maybe Tomorrow, this will help pass the time. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zUiWVLRdvTE
Tomorrow. Tomorrow...sing along.
When you're riding a "Golden Horse" you can afford to have patience and enjoy the ride. :)
I flicked the CFO an email yesterday. Will let you guys know if he replies.
What does significant cash reserves translate to? Special dividend?
Well positioned to continue their expansion in Australia.
HLG has, in my opinion performed well across the bottom of the economic cycle and is well positioned to capture an uptick in consumer spending as the economies on both sides of the Tasman recover.
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/447571/attachment/438684/447571-438684.pdf
Jeepers...another big women wear chain hits the skids in Australia...185 store 1000 staff ...goneski
https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/retail/major-aussie-fashion-brand-collapses/news-story/decf29ebc06164673f6fc0f38f483c78
Just confirms what a fickle market is fashion and those that get it right like HLG and UNI are being rewarded and those that don't are finding it very tough.
This clean out should help HLG when markets picks up again in Aussie but NZ still a bit struggle street.
Not much comment on HLG update from the zealots....was it a bit underwhelming or below your expectations. I thought it was ok for a tough market..a few headwinds with usd...but they are a survivor.
Quote from: Basil on Feb 28, 2025, 09:03 AMWell positioned to continue their expansion in Australia.
HLG has, in my opinion performed well across the bottom of the economic cycle and is well positioned to capture an uptick in consumer spending as the economies on both sides of the Tasman recover.
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/447571/attachment/438684/447571-438684.pdf
Jeez - analyst forecast for full year 2025 EPS was 74 cents.
Last year (i.e. FY 2024) they made 58 cents.
Sounds like first half year 2025 now just doing as good as last year - i.e. this is actually not a confirmation of previous numbers, but a significant down grade.
Sort of glad I sold out ... but hey - wishing holders an amazing 2nd half ...
Quote from: Turkey on Mar 01, 2025, 10:28 AMJeepers...another big women wear chain hits the skids in Australia...185 store 1000 staff ...goneski
https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/retail/major-aussie-fashion-brand-collapses/news-story/decf29ebc06164673f6fc0f38f483c78
Just confirms what a fickle market is fashion and those that get it right like HLG and UNI are being rewarded and those that don't are finding it very tough.
This clean out should help HLG when markets picks up again in Aussie but NZ still a bit struggle street.
Not much comment on HLG update from the zealots....was it a bit underwhelming or below your expectations. I thought it was ok for a tough market..a few headwinds with usd...but they are a survivor.
Sum's it up well. I thought it was a little softer than what the analysts are forecasting, (probably N.Z. sales) but the long term growth story with Glassons AU quadrupling sales in the last 8 years remains intact. At $8 I have them on a revised target eps of 60 cps, forward PE of 13.3 and gross yield of 8.4%, assuming 53 cps in dividends and 75% imputed. Happy to hold through the bottom of the economic cycle in which they have performed admirably and looking forward to improved results as the economy on both sides of the Tasman picks up. I think those metrics make it an attractive long-term hold to enjoy all the growth in the years to come while contemporaneously enjoying one of the highest and most reliable dividend yields available on the NZX.
Quote from: BlackPeter on Mar 01, 2025, 12:00 PMJeez - analyst forecast for full year 2025 EPS was 74 cents.
Last year (i.e. FY 2024) they made 58 cents.
Sounds like first half year 2025 now just doing as good as last year - i.e. this is actually not a confirmation of previous numbers, but a significant down grade.
Sort of glad I sold out ... but hey - wishing holders an amazing 2nd half ...
That 74 cents would need H2 to be about 60% up on last year H2
Maybe not that much but expect solid growth from here
Clothing retail still tough in NZ.
Datamine data shows February sector sales down 2% on last month
Good to see HLG share price recovering from its recent drop and back on track to hit 9 bucks
Any reason for the last hour tank in price today?
NZX 50 rolled over this summer...
NZX 50 at a level where it should hold one hopes...
Volume weighted average price was $7.79. Looks like tiny sell volume at end of day met an air pocket of demand.
Very solid result in a difficult trading environment is how I see it.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/449177
Great to see Glassons Au sales still growing strongly with sales up 15.8% to $123.9m, more than half group sales of $240m. Together with Australian sales of Hallenstein's gear made out of N.Z. Australian sales are now the dominant force driving the company's growth in the future.
Very strong cash position of $49.9m, the strongest it's ever been, and represents over 83 cps in cash. Clearly with multiple competitor failures recently in Australia and their exceptionally strong cash position they are very well positioned to take up new leases and negotiate good terms on them so I remain confident that the growth story in Australia remains intact and will continue for several decades to come. Hallensteins was a disappointment but surely, we are at the bottom of the cycle for retail in N.Z.
I think they've come through the recession in great shape and are extremely well positioned to continue to grow as the economy on both sides of the Tasman recovers. My view is eps will be about 60 cps for FY25. Backing out the near term 24,5 cent divvy due shortly, on a net price of $8 that puts them on a current year PE of 13.3 at the bottom of the retail cycle. Happy to hold and enjoy the growth in the years ahead.
Possibly worth noting that total comprehensive income including movement in cash flow hedge reserve and foreign currency translation reserve was up 15% to $23.3m, ($20.2m) in the previous comparable period. https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/449177/attachment/440505/449177-440505.pdf
A solid result indeed and an increased dividend.
The result might need some unpicking to see why NPAT didn't grow as much as sales.
But in light of NZ economic conditions and based on a cursory read they have done well.
Just leave the shares in the bottom drawer and forget about them.
Unpicking not really needed based on my brief review Ferg. In a nutshell the Hallensteins division result was very disappointing.
More of a curiosity than anything else. If the lower NPAT was due to worse FX rates on purchases then that would have shown up in the gross margin line.....but that % was almost stable. Work is waiting so it's a job for later....
Edit: just quickly I think most of the impact was from FX on purchases - the split of lower NPAT being about 63% from COGS versus 37% from CODB.
Thanks, I look forward to your thoughts mate. I've only had a brief review. Did note CODB rose slightly higher than the growth rate in sales so that's a good place to start looking but mostly that shocker Hallensteins result.
Hmm - turnover increasing at twice the rate of inflation but earnings stagnating (i.e. margin dropping and earnings in in real terms dropping).
They well might have reached their (in real terms) earnings peak last year.
Will be interesting to see whether the trees are this time growing into the sky, or whether the growth falls back as it usually does with a cyclical.
Wondering as well, what Dumps tradewars will do for them. The price for hedging might go up as well - that's what the uncertainty of a chimpanzee throwing live grenades into markets does to them.
continued investment in our operational capabilities to support the growth of our Australian brands, which continue to deliver strong performance. Inventory levels were tightly controlled and ended the period lower than the prior year end.
At their AGM this is what they said they would do.
For more read my posts that I posted after their agm.
BP - Have a look at how all the other retailers have performed including many closing their doors in Australia. "Blind Freddy" can tell you we've been through the worst recession in decades and the bottom of the retail cycle. In that context HLG have done really well indeed and with a record amount of cash on hand and no debt, are extremely well positioned to continue to grow in Australia in the years ahead. Maybe you've overlooked the 21% CAGR in Australian sales over the last 8 years.
Quote from: Basil on Mar 28, 2025, 12:17 PMBP - Have a look at how all the other retailers have performed including many closing their doors in Australia. "Blind Freddy" can tell you we've been through the worst recession in decades and the bottom of the retail cycle. In that context HLG have done really well indeed and with a record amount of cash on hand and no debt, are extremely well positioned to continue to grow in Australia in the years ahead. Maybe you've overlooked the 21% CAGR in Australian sales over the last 8 years.
I normally look at the big picture, and this includes the quite average performing NZ market. Are you saying they close down here to enjoy the better Ossie growth rates?
Apart from that - I don't really see what moat might be helping them to keep these growth rates. The only thing they do is pick cheap Chinese and Indian / Bangladeshi rags and hope that they correctly predicted the fickle mood of fashion for the coming season. In the ragtrade the dice are thrown twice year ... and while they certainly did well with the forecasting in the last couple of years, I don't see what guarantees them to keep this position.
Anyway - maybe its just my trade. Not many (consistently) linear movements in engineering, but plenty of sinewaves :) ; Actually - there used to be a French mathematicisan and physicist (Joseph Fourier), who demonstrated that
all movements can be composed from since waves of varying frequencies. The analysis called after him can be quite fun, if you like maths and interested to explore the domains of integration and differentiation.
ok its therefor the marketing that is working for them and they have cash and havnt blown that..
they must have a good supply chain back to the huts where the stuff is sown up...
BP - Glassons Au sales have grown from ~ $50m in 2017 and are on track to be ~ $250m in FY25, that's 5 times what they used to be 8 years ago. Clearly you don't understand "brand value". Glassons is seen by young women as really cool. I have a 14-year-old granddaughter and her friends that are happy to confirm that. That's what's behind their growth. Our market here is saturated with stores and there's no growth in N.Z., something I've said a number of times already.
On the other hand, market penetration in Australia in the women's apparel market on a per capita basis is only one fifth of what it is here, hence there's room for store footprint to quadruple or even quintuple in Australia over the next 20-30 years. Glassons Au is already bigger than all other parts of the business combined. Think about that and then consider their 21% CAGR in Australian sales over the last 8 years and even growing sales at 16% in a deep recession. They have never been in a stronger financial position to pursue growth opportunities with ~ $50m cash on hand. We're at the bottom of the retail cycle. If you don't even understand that mate, I can't help you.
Just for you Basil
Disappointed you didn't use quadruple in your last post ....oh I see it's now nearly 5 times.
Share growth from more stores and big increase in average sales per store driven by the things you outlined.
Di did a wonderful job in getting Glassons going forward and luckily James didn't undo her good work
I need to change y axis scale eh lol
IMG_6109.png
HLG stock management really good
Sales approaching half billion and they do it on $27m of stock
Stock turns are 7 times
And what's impressive is that every $ of stock generates $9.60 of Gross Margin ....... WHS was so proud of theirv$1.93 the other day
No wonder they have such a robust Balance Sheet and high ROE
Quote from: Basil on Mar 28, 2025, 01:20 PMBP - Glassons Au sales have grown from ~ $50m in 2017 and are on track to be ~ $250m in FY25, that's 5 times what they used to be 8 years ago. Clearly you don't understand "brand value". Glassons is seen by young women as really cool. I have a 14-year-old granddaughter and her friends that are happy to confirm that. That's what's behind their growth. Our market here is saturated with stores and there's no growth in N.Z., something I've said a number of times already.
On the other hand, market penetration in Australia in the women's apparel market on a per capita basis is only one fifth of what it is here, hence there's room for store footprint to quadruple or even quintuple in Australia over the next 20-30 years. Glassons Au is already bigger than all other parts of the business combined. Think about that and then consider their 21% CAGR in Australian sales over the last 8 years and even growing sales at 16% in a deep recession. They have never been in a stronger financial position to pursue growth opportunities with ~ $50m cash on hand. We're at the bottom of the retail cycle. If you don't even understand that mate, I can't help you.
Look basil, I hear your message and understand the (backwards looking) numbers you present.
What I don't understand is how anybody could think that they are able to predict a fickle fashion-based market not just for the next season, not just for the next 2 seasons, not just for the next 2 years, but for the next two decades.
Based on predicting the development of HLG's market share in Australia you seem to be privvy to what any of their current and future competitors might do over the next couple of decades, you can predict the development of the textile fashion market overall as well as the development of the the international economy.
You seem to assume that the current favorite of your granddaughter will not just stay her favorite for the next couple of decades (which is nearly 1.5 times her current overall lifespan), but that the girl generations following her will have the same taste and stick with it for the next handful of decades as well.
I hear that both Australians as well as Kiwis change their partner more than 13 times during their lifetime (which would be - if we exclude pre-puberty - something like one partner every 5 years). Amazing that you think the same people stick with the same fashion shop for more than 20 years.
But anyway - it feels this subject is more important to you (you are holding), than it is to me (I am not) - i.e. no damage done and good luck with that.
does this mean there marketing is better than TINA...
13 times! For a partner? Well your user name makes sense now anyway 🙄
Quote from: BlackPeter on Mar 28, 2025, 04:28 PMWhat I don't understand is how anybody could think that they are able to predict a fickle fashion-based market not just for the next season, not just for the next 2 seasons, not just for the next 2 years, but for the next two decades.
Mate with all due respect, Glassons have been around for over 100 years and Hallensteins for more than 150.
Its widely regarded as a superbly managed company.
A picture says a thousand words. Maybe just have a look at that beautiful image Winner has posted above and soak that up and then ponder that Glassons Australia only has slightly more retail stores than Glassons N.Z. and yet the population in Australia is five times as many people.
That should give you an idea of the size of the a"dressable market" If its not for you, that's fine mate, I'm not trying to sell it to you.
I'm pretty sure there will be other 13-30 years old's who come along behind my granddaughter who also think Glassons is cool. They all seem to think that way, I've talked to a LOT of her friends. The trend if your friend with Glassons Au.
well winner that chart is Perfect...
does that mean that the aussi fashion conscious buyer has taken over from the US..
have we missed a trend here and havnt been reading the mode of the Kanga nation....
if this is in fact the case then KIWIs do have there heads in the bush's and NZ inc needs to join Kangaland ...
and become the nth state of AUS...
that chart is PERFECT...
well having some aussi stocks is good then...
if NZ and AUSS miss the TF war... and the US plunges into R country as the FED is now on hold it appear and STG-FLATION is already in place apparently...
NZ and AUSS could come out of this looking better than first though...
All eyes on the next 3 QTR GDP....
retail spending for this QTR ending 31 march is what we want to see...edge of the seat stuff..
dont forget to check out the latest Kanga Budget... and very surprised to see the size of the Navy defence budget...
will they also be the best dressed...
check out the new toys the kanga have at sea on WOW thread...
Quote from: Basil on Mar 28, 2025, 05:26 PMMate with all due respect, Glassons have been around for over 100 years and Hallensteins for more than 150.
Its widely regarded as a superbly managed company.
A picture says a thousand words. Maybe just have a look at that beautiful image Winner has posted above and soak that up and then ponder that Glassons Australia only has slightly more retail stores than Glassons N.Z. and yet the population in Australia is five times as many people.
That should give you an idea of the size of the a"dressable market" If its not for you, that's fine mate, I'm not trying to sell it to you.
I'm pretty sure there will be other 13-30 years old's who come along behind my granddaughter who also think Glassons is cool. They all seem to think that way, I've talked to a LOT of her friends. The trend if your friend with Glassons Au.
Sounds a bit like the Turkey problem.
Turkey gets fed every day by a nice and friedly human looking after his health. Turkey learned based on all data available to him that humans are nice and friendly and their purpose in life is feeding turkeys.
After he learned all this, Thanks Giving arrived and despite all his data he didn't got another feed, but the knife.
Apparantly EJ Smith confirmed in 1907 that despite his long experience he never has been involved in any accident. This was when they made him captian of the Titanic. Well, we know, how this story ended.
Look, it is not an uncommon fallacy to assume that things which went on for some time will always keep going that way. It's just - there are plenty of examples that this method (linear extrapolation) has its limits (to put it mildly).
Things tend to grow, they reach a peak and than they fall back (or decay). Humans do that, trees do that, companies do that, and apparantly even the universe might follow such a course.
If we talk companies - think Pumpkin Patch (unstoppable for some time), Kathmandu (yes, once they were a star as well), Polaroid, A2Milk - and thousands others who had amazing growth until ... they reached their limits or something changed.
But no doubt - this time will be different.
no doubt the current supply chain may change...
Would be interesting to see how over that 100 yer period there supply chain changed....
But you have to say has that history draw some of the BB (best of the best) or did they get lucky...
well so far its looking good.. and the up till 2020 one could plan a decade ahead...
well i somethings just dont change....
I doubt anyone holding retail stocks think beyond the next QTR these days..
Its back to the past...
who said time travel doesnt work..
as Crammer said this morning on Jobs data .. its not the end of the world, its just feels like it...
people also always dress well at funerals...
Hey waltz...talking of supply chains did you know that 150 years ago Bendix Hallenstein set up his own clothing factory and made stuff for his shops.
No imports from China in those days
Bendix was a German .....like most Germans he knew his stuff
well there you have it folks...
one wonders if he brought with him a gramophone and listened to some Strauss in the evenings...
thank you winner... great to know...
BP HLG is the oldest company listed on the NZX and as Winner has stated above, can trace its roots back 150 years. Food for thought. That's longer than some famous brands like Mercedes-Benz.
I'm not sure how much more proof you are looking for that a company has an enduring business model, but you won't find it on the NZX. The market penetration of Glassons Au, in terms of its retail footprint compared to Glassons N.Z. (itself a more than 100 year old company) is only one fifth. I think its clear to any objective observer looking at Winners chart, they have made strong and consistent progress over the last 8 years in building their market acceptance and brand awareness in Australia thanks in no small way to the excellent services of James Glasson, (degree qualified from the London school of fashion). James of course stands to inherit a significant share of his father Tim Glassons 20% stake so in addition to his fabulous skillset, shareholders can take quite some comfort from the fact that he's seriously motivated to continue the excellent work he's started.
I think Glasson's Au has only recently hit critical mass and we're on for a very exciting future in the decades ahead.
is it an indian summer... temperatures yesterday in the WakaTOO and the BOP have simply been wonderful this last few weeks and surely tourist numbers are they holding up?
retail needs a boost and nothing like perfect late summer to kick the spirits of the country off into a recovery?
lets hope so as the 1st QTR of the new year ends and the clip boards will be out tally up the numbers...
the extra 600 staff at the RNBNZ measuring everything ... they must know the answers?
or is it all in an Excel spreadsheet .....
Went dog walking with my 14 year old granddaughter at lunch time. Checked in again with her and asked if Glassons is 100% cooler than Cotton on ? 500% cooler Grandad, she said. I'm not sure how the 500% thing works, (presume that's five times as cool in teenage language) lol
A very wise young lady.
Perhaps she would like a few HLG shares for her next birthday.?
Seems the estate are selling Hickman's shares ...at least in an orderly fashion
Pretty big sell down in HLG in recent weeks. In the last few weeks the $N.Z has gained nearly 10% against the US rallying from circa 55 cents to over 60 cents. That'll help going forward.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/trump-tariffs-new-zealand-dollar-gains-us5c-in-three-weeks-amid-us-turmoil/VOJTDOV4QZB77AS4HYFZLSLMFE/
Quote from: Basil on Apr 22, 2025, 11:17 PMPretty big sell down in HLG in recent weeks. In the last few weeks the $N.Z has gained nearly 10% against the US rallying from circa 55 cents to over 60 cents. That'll help going forward.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/trump-tariffs-new-zealand-dollar-gains-us5c-in-three-weeks-amid-us-turmoil/VOJTDOV4QZB77AS4HYFZLSLMFE/
Always right to sell above $8.50 :) ; Enjoying (next to others) the TRA shares and the ARMR ETF's I bought from the proceedings.
Quote from: BlackPeter on Apr 23, 2025, 10:16 AMAlways right to sell above $8.50 :) ; Enjoying (next to others) the TRA shares and the ARMR ETF's I bought from the proceedings.
That recent $8.80 seems a long way off now eh Peter
Maybe Hickman estate still selling his shares
You always said HLG was a cyclical ....sure is
At $6.85 I calculate based on the last 12 months earnings and gross dividends a historical PE of 12 and gross yield of 9.0%. Actually, you can see that for yourself on Jarden's website. Very attractive metrics for a well proven growth stock that has a huge future ahead of it in Australia. Not forgetting no debt, ~ $50m cash on hand (~ 83 cps), superb management and a company that's quadrupled sales with Glassons Au over the last 8 years thanks to James Glasson's brilliance. I think the correction is overdone and HLG are well placed and well-funded to grow in the years ahead.
If Warren goingbto keep on selling Hickman's shares he's got 332,000 to go
Likely a case of 5 bucks here we come
From 31 March to 11 April Warren sold about 233,000 shares
Total market sales in that period about 375.000 shares ....so Warren's activity was over 60% of the total
No wonder share price going south
And he's got those 332,000 to go.
See the NZX top 5 losers today include Briscoes, Warehouse and HLG
Maybe nobody wants to be in retail at the moment.
Quote from: Basil on Apr 23, 2025, 10:45 AMAt $6.85 I calculate based on the last 12 months earnings and gross dividends a historical PE of 12 and gross yield of 9.0%. Actually, you can see that for yourself on Jarden's website. Very attractive metrics for a well proven growth stock that has a huge future ahead of it in Australia. Not forgetting no debt, ~ $50m cash on hand (~ 83 cps), superb management and a company that's quadrupled sales with Glassons Au over the last 8 years thanks to James Glasson's brilliance. I think the correction is overdone and HLG are well placed and well-funded to grow in the years ahead.
I know - I guess based on the assumption that nothing changes, they do appear to be reasonably priced. But, when was the last time you remember, when nothing changed? Pandemics, Tradewars, weather related catastrophies, cost of living crisis - it all just happened without due warning (though a cyclical history and science gave some warning flags).
Nobody knows when the next black swan passes by and how it will look, but we have currently some significant black swan generators operating, and we know that a fairly priced rug trader selling non-essentials will be more likely to get a hit than somebody producing or selling essentials. So - maybe this is not just a short correction, but the market is adding a risk discount to the share price?
Just wondering, how rugtraders like HLG fared during the 1930íes? Anybody knows? Most fotos from these days seem to show people in uniforms. Maybe some idea to diversify?
Actually - just noticed that analysts seem to get cold feet as well. Interesting to compare the March and the April recommendations:
Screenshot 2025-04-23 115614.png
Bouncing off support at present and clawing its way back to the 200 day MA. Will it hold? Bit of a hard ask in this market, so no prediction here.
HLG.png
This is For Bars latest from 31st March
Hallenstein Glassons (HLG) 1H25 result had few surprises, given earnings guidance provided in February 2025. The divergence in its NZ businesses and Glassons Australia remains evident, with sales in the former broadly flat while the latter was up +16% on the prior year. Trading through the first seven weeks of 2H25 was +5% on the prior year, though promotional activity and a weaker NZD is expected to weigh on gross margins. While there is likely to be some near-term volatility in the NZ businesses, Glassons Australia continues to go from strength to strength, with: (1) annual same-store sales growth >10% over the last three financial years; (2) two net new store openings signalled for 2H25; and (3) the distribution centre project likely to enable the next leg of store growth. We continue to view the risk–reward as attractive, with HLG trading on c.11x two-year forward PE, below its long-run history. OUTPERFORM.
What's changed?
Earnings: Minor NPAT revisions of -1%/+1%/+1% from FY25 to FY27 respectively.
Target price: Increases +3% to NZ$10.00
A tale of two countries
HLG reported 1H25 NPAT of NZ$21.2m, broadly flat on the prior year. Momentum continues in the Glassons Australia business, with total sales up +16% to NZ$124m, including same-store sales growth of c.+10%. Glassons Australia delivered 1H25 NPAT of NZ$11.8m—more than half of group NPAT. While Glassons NZ and Hallenstein Brothers sales were flat in the half, this compares to Stats NZ retail card spend on apparel over the same six-month period, which was down -3% on the prior year.
Margins in focus
Gross margin pressure has been most acute in Hallenstein Brothers, down c.260 bps on the prior year—primarily driven by a more price-sensitive male consumer in New Zealand. Glassons NZ and Australia gross margins were more resilient, with the former improving by c.40 bps, while the latter was broadly flat on the prior year. HLG expects gross margin pressure to continue over the balance of 2025, as the retail environment remains subdued and a weak NZD impacts inventory purchasing costs.
Driving growth in Australia: OUTPERFORM
HLG reported 1H25 results in line with expectations. Key points below:
Glassons Australia: Sales up +16% to NZ$124m, gross margin fell 2 bps to 61.1%, while NPAT rose +9.0% to NZ$11.8m.
Glassons NZ: Sales up +0.2% to NZ$57m, gross margin increased +36 bps to 55.0%, and NPAT increased +18% to NZ$6.7m.
Hallenstein Brothers: Sales up +0.1% to NZ$59m, gross margins fell 260 bps to 56.2%, and NPAT -43.6% to NZ$2.5m.
Balance sheet: Net cash balance of NZ$50m (1H24: NZ$43m). Inventory levels increased to NZ$27m from NZ$23m in 1H24.
Outlook: Trading through the first seven weeks +5.4%, and margins remain under pressure. HLG expects volatility to continue for the remainder of FY25, given economic uncertainty in NZ, AU and globally.
We continue to view the risk–reward as attractive, given the momentum in the Glassons Australia business. On our revised estimates, HLG is trading on c.11x two-year forward PE, below its long-run average. OUTPERFORM.
Australia awaits
The opportunity in both Glassons Australia and Hallenstein Brothers Australia will drive the next step change in HLG's earnings. On a population-adjusted basis—assuming half the store-to-population density of their New Zealand counterparts—Australia could support c.80 Glassons Australia stores (currently 40 stores) and c.90 Hallenstein Brothers stores (currently five stores). HLG noted at its AGM in November 2024 that it could open two to five Glassons Australia stores per year to reach 50 stores over the medium term.
Earnings changes
Minor earnings changes across the forecast period, with NPAT -1%/+1%/+1% from FY25 to FY27. Better-than-expected trading in Glassons NZ and continued growth in Glassons Australia were the key drivers of the upward revisions from FY26 onwards. We had already expected some margin pressure in 2H25 but have reduced our gross margin forecasts further for Hallenstein Brothers in particular. We increase our dividend assumptions across the forecast period, reflecting a higher payout in FY25 and higher earnings in FY26/27.
DISC. Not a holder
Quote from: winner (n) on Apr 23, 2025, 10:59 AMIf Warren goingbto keep on selling Hickman's shares he's got 332,000 to go
Likely a case of 5 bucks here we come
I love you mate because you're so transparent. 5 minutes ago, it was $9 here we come and now its $5 here we come. It's as clear as day you have sold lol. For sure, I am well aware of the significant market pressure that sell down has created.
Quote from: BlackPeter on Apr 23, 2025, 11:53 AMI know - I guess based on the assumption that nothing changes, they do appear to be reasonably priced. But, when was the last time you remember, when nothing changed? Pandemics, Tradewars, weather related catastrophies, cost of living crisis - it all just happened without due warning (though a cyclical history and science gave some warning flags).
Nobody knows when the next black swan passes by and how it will look, but we have currently some significant black swan generators operating, and we know that a fairly priced rug trader selling non-essentials will be more likely to get a hit than somebody producing or selling essentials. So - maybe this is not just a short correction, but the market is adding a risk discount to the share price?
Just wondering, how rugtraders like HLG fared during the 1930íes? Anybody knows? Most fotos from these days seem to show people in uniforms. Maybe some idea to diversify?
No argument there's plenty of ructions in international markets at the moment and there will be some impact on consumer confidence in Australasia, but I suspect that young people buying cheap clothes to make themselves look cool don't really worry about these things nearly as much as you and I. Maybe the trade tariff thing gets sorted out sometime in 2025 and maybe a reduction in eps of a few cents a share this year. Not much in the long-term scheme of things when you look at Glasson's Au proven growth rate over the last 8 years is it. So, lets trim for arguments sake, 4-5 cps off this year's earnings and the same off 2026 eps and that affects their DCF valuation by sweet bugger all, is my thinking. Each to their own, its hard-to-find good growth stories, with well proven management and a fortress balance sheet trading on compelling metrics.
Anyway, leaving aside what you and I think here's what the analysts think. I note an average target price of $9.25 and some very interesting dividend growth forecast in the next two years. https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HALLENSTEIN-GLASSON-HOLDI-6495564/finances/ Maybe that growth will be a bit lower than analysts were thinking but the key difference between you and I seems to be that I think the long-term growth story remains intact and you don't.
Unpredictable dynamics at the moment. Hickman sell down, crazy trump tariffs, etc. rising fx for sure a positive if maintained. Some of the ASX retailers SPs have been hit hard...reportedly in the AFR there has been some targeted short selling of australasian retailers out of fear of Chinese/Asian dumping of products being redirected from America. Crazy times (as they always seem to be lately).
HLG have demonstrated very good level's of resiliency throughout all the challenges of the last 5 years, (Covid and the almost endless recession that's followed) Not quite as resilient as Turners but they set an incredibly high bar. I think they're well positioned to weather this latest challenge better than most. For quite some time they were broadly matching UNI in Australia for price, (which I note is up nicely today to A$7.65) but I think HLG's balance sheet is stronger, and HLG's store expansion plan is far more conservative than UNI. UNI trading on 23 times last years earnings, nearly double the metrics of HLG.
The unpredictable dynamics currently in the market gives all investors and opportunity to make money.
The medium to long term players have to decide if they can withstand these dynamics and are prepared to sell/hold/add during these times pending their respective Philosophy for that respective stock.
Then you have those who play the stocks daily who trade daily to try and make a quid.
Each to there own, but remember there are always those who see value when others don't.
Quote from: KW on Apr 23, 2025, 12:09 PMBouncing off support at present and clawing its way back to the 200 day MA. Will it hold? Bit of a hard ask in this market, so no prediction here.
HLG.png
Interesting - I didn't notice that before, but this chart shows a beautiful head and shoulders pattern, but hey - TA is only for the faint hearted ... and only reliable with the benefit of hindsight.
Plenty of chat on retail lately. Here is For Bars uptake on retail in general. Possible could look at starting Generic Retail thread?
It has been a volatile few years for NZ listed retailers, with Trump's reciprocal tariffs providing the latest shock for the sector. While retailers that import into the US may face new costs, NZ retailers sourcing from China could benefit from excess manufacturing capacity and lower input costs. Although the tariff situation remains fluid — Trump has noticeably softened his rhetoric on reciprocal tariffs in recent weeks — this note seeks to provide context for how NZ listed retailers would respond to further changes in the global trade system. Our analysis of listed retailer supply chains, end markets, and sourcing locations found that (1) a -1% reduction in China sourcing costs could increase sector gross profit dollars between +0.2% to +1.1% (all else equal), and (2) KMD Brands is in a better position to mitigate tariff-related headwinds than initially anticipated. The latter reflects better-than-anticipated flexibility in its supply chain, including the ability to redirect Chinese-sourced product to non-US markets, while fulfilling US demand from other lower-tariff sourcing countries.
What could cheaper product sourcing costs mean for the NZ listed retail sector?
Disclosure of product sourcing is inconsistent across the retail sector, both in terms of granularity and the metrics disclosed. However, our analysis confirmed that China is a major sourcing partner for NZ listed retailers (noting that no data was publicly available for BGP). Specifically, China (1) accounts for c.35% of KMD's spend on branded product, (2) is the sourcing origin for c.63% of WHS's sales in Red and Blue Sheds, and (3) is home to c.70% of HLG's sourcing factories. A full breakdown of our estimates of sourcing country is provided in Appendix 1. Should trade tensions between China and the US remain elevated, we expect excess manufacturing capacity to place downward pressure on sourcing costs. We estimate that a -1% reduction in Chinese sourcing cost could result in a 15 - 40 bps gross margin benefit, or a +0.2% to +1.1% increase in gross profit dollars, all else equal.
More confidence in KMD's ability to offset the tariff impost
We expect KMD will be able to offset two-thirds of the total tariff impact (up from our previous estimate of half), and increase our target price +NZ 5 cps to NZ$0.53 accordingly. KMD has c.19% revenue exposure to the US market through Rip Curl (c.12%) and Oboz (c.7%). China is a significant sourcing country for Rip Curl (accounting for c.45% of supplier factories), while Oboz has a lower dependency (c.23%). Notably, China-sourced goods are primarily apparel, which can more easily be relocated to other textile markets. In contrast, technical products such as Rip Curl's wetsuits (Thailand), and Oboz footwear (Vietnam) are harder to shift. Despite ongoing volatility, we have increased confidence in KMD's ability to mitigate potential tariff-related headwinds given (1) Trump's softened stance towards key trading partners (excluding China) and relatively lower tariffs on other key textile nations (Bangladesh, India, and Vietnam), and (2) greater supply chain flexibility with the ability to redirect China-sourced product to other international markets, while meeting US demand through alternative low-tariff sourcing locations.
China is a major sourcing country for all retailers under coverage
Supplier disclosure is inconsistent across the sector, with BGP providing no publicly available data. Figure 2 summarises our estimates of supplier and manufacturer locations by continent. The reporting metric used also varied by company. KMD Brands reported its percentage spend on branded product in 2024 at the group level, however, disclosure at the individual brand level was less granular, with our estimates based on number of factories in each region (Open Supply Hub) and no adjustment for the expected volume that is supplied from those factories. HLG also provides only the number of factories by location. WHS reported the percentage of product sold in Red and Blue sheds by sourcing location in its Ethical Sourcing Report from 2023. A more detailed breakdown of supplier locations is available in Appendix 1.
Unsurprisingly, Asia is the primary supplier and manufacturing continent for all listed retailers under our coverage. China in particular features heavily, accounting for (1) c.35% of KMD's spend on branded product, (2) c.63% of sourcing for WHS's sales in Red and Blue Sheds, and (3) c.70% of HLG's sourcing factories.
Lower sourcing costs from China would benefit NZ listed retailers
If trade from China to the USA slows materially, we expect surplus manufacturing capacity in China to place downward pressure on sourcing costs for global retailers. Based on our estimates of Chinese-based sourcing above, we estimate that a 1% decrease in China sourcing costs could increase gross margins across the sector by 15-40bps and increase gross profit dollars by 0.2%-1.1% (assuming all else equal). WHS would be the largest beneficiary, due to its high cost of goods as a percentage of sales and large sourcing exposure from China. Any potential reduction in sourcing costs will be lagged due to the time required to turn inventory. Retailers with slower inventory cycles — KMD, WHS and BGP — are likely to realise benefits more gradually than faster inventory turn retailers (HLG).
KMD is the only retailer under coverage with material US exposure
KMD is the sole listed retailer under our coverage that has material revenue exposure to the US. In FY24, 23% of Rip Curl's sales were into the US (c.12% of total group sales), while c.83% of Oboz's sales (c.7% of group sales) were into the US. Briscoes Group (BGP) and the Warehouse Group (WHS) are 100% domestic retailers, while HLG has both NZ and Australian exposure.
Re-basing our KMD Brands tariff estimates
In our report 'Riding the Tariff Wave' released 9 April 2025, we estimated the unmitigated tariff impact of Trump's reciprocal tariffs on KMD to be approximately NZ$20m post-tax. The tariff landscape remains dynamic, with a 90 day pause on all reciprocal tariffs being recently enacted, alongside a 10% import tariff applied on all countries except China. Once this pause ends, we expect further changes to the global trade and tariff regime. Encouragingly, Trump has shown he is willing to negotiate on tariffs, and KMD's longer inventory lead times into the US provide a buffer period for global economies to negotiate trade and tariff deals with the US.
China is a major sourcing country for Rip Curl and a smaller sourcing country for Oboz. At face value, this raises concerns over sourcing cost pressures on US-bound product, however, flexibility in KMD's supply chain should be able to mitigate tariff-headwinds. Most of the Chinese-sourced goods for Rip Curl and Oboz is apparel— which can be redirected to other textile hubs like Bangladesh, Vietnam, or India. By contrast, more technical products—Rip Curl's wetsuits (Thailand) and Oboz's footwear (Vietnam)—are less mobile. Furthermore, Chinese production capacity contracted by KMD can be reallocated to supply non-US markets, while product for the US can be sourced from other, lower tariff countries.
Recent policy developments and further analysis of KMD's sourcing options gives us greater confidence that (1) KMD is well positioned to mitigate tariff exposure from Chinese-sourcing, and (2) Rip Curl and Oboz can maintain US market presence, assuming alternative sourcing nations continue to have more favourable tariff treatment. As a result, we revise our offset estimates upward, from c.50% to approximately two-thirds of the unmitigated tariff impact.
Earnings changes
We revise our forecasts in light of our more positive view on KMD's ability to offset tariff impacts. We now expect that KMD will be able to offset two-thirds of our unmitigated tariff impact estimate of c.NZ$20m, or only incur a NZ$7m post-tax impact from increased tariff costs. This assumption broadly equates to a c.10% tariff across all products into the US (NZ$10m increase in COGS based on the c.NZ$100m cost of goods for products into US). We reinstate a KMD FY26 dividend of NZ 1.5 cents per share given improved profitability in that period. Improved profitability also eases pressure on key balance sheet metrics.
Gwd ...generic retail thread exists
https://stocktalk.co.nz/index.php?topic=29.msg29380#msg29380
Quote from: winner (n) on Apr 24, 2025, 07:56 AMGwd ...generic retail thread exists
https://stocktalk.co.nz/index.php?topic=29.msg29380#msg29380
Thanks Winner.
Warren sold a few more of Kevin's shares the other day
Getting there ...only 315,316 to go
60% of volume is a pretty disappointing and aggressive way to effect the sale of those trust shares. I guess the estate executor has a job to do and they're doing it. Decent volume of over 70,000 today so I guess we are getting there.
Quote from: Basil on Apr 28, 2025, 04:20 PM60% of volume is a pretty disappointing and aggressive way to effect the sale of those trust shares. I guess the estate executor has a job to do and they're doing it. Decent volume of over 70,000 today so I guess we are getting there.
Wonder if they could have come to an 'arrangement' with somebody like James Glasson to take the lot at a reasonable price instead of selling on market but I suppose that's not proper and not allowed
Tim Glasson couldn't take them ....would need to make a takeover offer ..yes?
Yes I think so mate. 500,000 is close to 1% shareholding and Tim holds 19 point something percent already.
breaking down ... must hold here..
Glassons Au going from strength to strength. Plenty of work for management to do with improving Hallenstiens performance. https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/450744/attachment/442370/450744-442370.pdf
Quote from: KW on Apr 23, 2025, 12:09 PMBouncing off support at present and clawing its way back to the 200 day MA. Will it hold? Bit of a hard ask in this market, so no prediction here.
So far, so good.
Screenshot 2025-04-30 141818.png
some more OCR cuts might help....
china could break the trends everywhere though...they may haved started QE in an attempt to hold off folding ..
Quote from: KW on Apr 30, 2025, 02:19 PMSo far, so good.
Screenshot 2025-04-30 141818.png
One could draw a beautiful down-channel, starting in February. And yes, the SP is well within this channel.
I suspect the very aggressive selling of Hickman's estate shareholding has had a fair bit to do with the recent share price weakness. Obviously, overseas drama's flowing through to local market weakness is also a factor. I see another good volume day of over 90,000 shares so we're certainly getting there in terms of clearing out that overhang.
OZ retail stats have clothing stores for March sales up 7% on last year
Glassons with share gains should have had a great sales month.
Looking good
That's good. Interestingly, last year we all thought they got quite a sales boost from Taylor's Swift's concerts in Australia in late February 2024 but that theory doesn't appear to hold water with group sales this half up 5.4%, (7 weeks from 2 February). I reckon Glassons Au sales up ~ 10-11% so far this half and N.Z. sales are flat.
By my reckoning HLG is on track for approx 62-63 cps in eps this year. I worked this out before looking at market screener and I am encouraged to see the two analysts covering this, their average forecast eps this year is 62.3 cps. https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HALLENSTEIN-GLASSON-HOLDI-6495564/finances/
Been doing a bit of modelling of first half - second half profit split. For the last 6 years that has averaged 56.9% 43.1% split, and eps growth from 2019, (unaffected by Covid) to 2024 has been a CAGR of 4.4% per annum. I think growth has been slowed a bit by Covid and the almost endless recession that followed and they can grow eps a bit faster going forward. How much faster, maybe CAGR of 6% ? but the actual rate will ebb and flow with economic cycles. (6% growth is consistent in my valuation methodology as being good value at a forward PE of 14.5 which gives me fair / good value of $9.00 on this year's earnings).
Possibly worth noting that the average analyst forecast is for much stronger growth in FY26 and FY27 with eps growing to 73 (17% growth) and 81 cps (11%). Average analyst price target is $9.25. We're in the last quarter of HLG's FY25 year and it's always best to look ahead because that's what the market does, so looking at FY26's numbers, the average analyst has eps of 73 cps and the shares closed at $7.63 so a forward FY26 PE of only 10.5. Well shy of where I see the fair PE of 14.5. (Briscoes with its very limited growth prospects trades on a mid 15's PE) Hmmm
Probably worth remembering how long this company has been trading, managements capabilities, their fortress balance sheet with no debt and ~ $50m cash on hand, (worth ~ 84 cps). The sustained selling pressure from Hickman's estate share sales seems to have abated, at least temporarily. Wonder how many there are still to go ?
Quote from: Basil on May 03, 2025, 01:36 PMThe sustained selling pressure from Hickman's estate share sales seems to have abated, at least temporarily. Wonder how many there are still to go ?
264,000 https://www.investdirect.nz/app/news/urn:dt:7007709
Quote from: Basil on May 06, 2025, 11:36 AM264,000 https://www.investdirect.nz/app/news/urn:dt:7007709
Wonder what Warren going to do with Kevin's 33 million Ryman Shares
Quote from: Basil on May 06, 2025, 11:36 AM264,000 https://www.investdirect.nz/app/news/urn:dt:7007709
I think I saw these come up for air today in the sell depth, as one big blubbery order.
Didn't get a good look as I was too busy rowing in the opposite direction.
I might come back to pick over the remains.
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/451547/attachment/443249/451547-443249.pdf
Only 187K to go now.
Quote from: Basil on May 13, 2025, 11:14 AMhttps://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/451547/attachment/443249/451547-443249.pdf
Only 187K to go now.
a net positive I reckon for the long term investor....
* large block of shares available to build a meaningful stake
* depressed impact on pricing when accumulating above stake
* good volume for NZX50 weightings
* a clear end to the selling, overhang on SP removed
Quote from: Fiordland Moose on May 13, 2025, 12:50 PMa net positive I reckon for the long term investor....
* large block of shares available to build a meaningful stake
* depressed impact on pricing when accumulating above stake
* good volume for NZX50 weightings
* a clear end to the selling, overhang on SP removed
Agreed, and noting another 50,000 just went through at $7.60.
UNI on fire in Australia so its definitely not all doom and gloom out there in apparel retail. HLG have a fortress balance sheet and trade on very attractive forward FY26 metrics. of only 10.5 times earnings. https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HALLENSTEIN-GLASSON-HOLDI-6495564/
The calming of overseas markets should help too.
Only ~ 123,000 remaining now.
Sad news, Smith and Caugheys to close for good. Contains interesting commentary on when various retail stores started operations in N.Z. including Hallensteins, 152 years ago.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/companies/retail/smith-caugheys-to-close-the-rise-and-fall-of-the-grande-dame-of-queen-st-why-aucklands-famous-department-store-is-in-its-final-days/GHFUNNTYP5ETDEKKCZ4MV4ITAE/ Paywalled
Fascinating for me that part of the legacy of the early Caughey family was the gift of two beautiful parks to the people of Auckland, one of which, Craigavon, I quite frequently enjoy walking around with my dog....a very pleasant place to spend time. Gosh...what a legacy.
Thanks for that.
Hallensteins would have closed many years ago if it wasn't for the Glassons stores.
Quote from: Clearasmud on May 23, 2025, 01:17 AMHallensteins would have closed many years ago if it wasn't for the Glassons stores.
They're still profitable as a whole but there's no growth with the Hallensteins brand here and I do expect N.Z. store rationalizations in the years ahead.
HLG have always been quick to exit any non performing Malls,for their stores.
A good indicator of a Mall's decline is Hallensteins moving out.
Quote from: Basil on May 23, 2025, 09:05 AMThey're still profitable as a whole but there's no growth with the Hallensteins brand here and I do expect N.Z. store rationalizations in the years ahead.
And don't expect growth from Australia. There are tons of specialist menswear chains over there, so competition is already fierce in a market that isnt driven by fast fashion trends. Crochet shirts aside ;D
Quote from: KW on May 23, 2025, 11:58 AMAnd don't expect growth from Australia. There are tons of specialist menswear chains over there, so competition is already fierce in a market that isnt driven by fast fashion trends. Crochet shirts aside ;D
I think all investors are well aware that all the real growth is coming from Glassons Au.
Reviewing the budget, the increase in Kiwisaver contributions is going to hit all NZ retailers with a 1% pay increase. At least with overseas business that softens the blow. However it will make it even harder for Hallensteins to grow at home.
Half a percent more from April 2026 and the other half from April 2028
On the other hand, maybe the 20% new asset write-off applies to new shop fixtures and fittings...don't know, haven't even looked at it yet.
The main impediment as I see it to Hallensteins recent lackluster performance has been the incredibly weak N.Z. economy. Maybe the RBNZ cuts 50 bps on 28 May ?
A 50 bps cut would give the economy a bit of stimulus that it desperately needs. Maybe our current RBNZ Governor might have the balls to push his colleagues to make the decision now that Orr is out of the frame.
Quote from: afc029871 on May 24, 2025, 01:42 PMReviewing the budget, the increase in Kiwisaver contributions is going to hit all NZ retailers with a 1% pay increase. At least with overseas business that softens the blow. However it will make it even harder for Hallensteins to grow at home.
The Australian superannuation contribution rate increases by 0.5% to a total of 12% on 1 July. All of that is paid by employers.
Quote from: Pierre on May 24, 2025, 09:37 PMThe Australian superannuation contribution rate increases by 0.5% to a total of 12% on 1 July. All of that is paid by employers.
Not quite how it works in Australia. There are two types of employment contracts - those that are "salary + super", and those that are a "remuneration package". For those on the latter type of contract, their remuneration is a set amount, that is then divvied up between salary, super, and benefits like a car lease, extra holiday leave, meal expenses etc. In this case, the additional super will come out of their cash salary amount.
Quote from: afc029871 on May 24, 2025, 01:42 PMReviewing the budget, the increase in Kiwisaver contributions is going to hit all NZ retailers with a 1% pay increase. At least with overseas business that softens the blow. However it will make it even harder for Hallensteins to grow at home.
It will probably come at the expense of a pay rise. Most retailers probably budget for 2% increases (or more) in their wages bill each year due to inflation, and the continual increase in the minimum wage (which went up 45% under Labour). Employees may get 1% increase in super and 1% increase in salary, instead of a 2% inflation adjustment.
Not too many shares left for the Hickman Trust to sell....65,000 to go.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/452290
Good stuff and $Kiwi back around 60 cents US. Gradual recovery in the Au and N.Z. economies should start to flow through to increased consumer spending. Metrics look sound at this price level.
Quote from: Basil on Apr 23, 2025, 12:40 PMI love you mate because you're so transparent. 5 minutes ago, it was $9 here we come and now its $5 here we come. It's as clear as day you have sold lol. For sure, I am well aware of the significant market pressure that sell down has created.
No worries ....$9 soon and then heading to $10
Won't hear how things are going until late August or early September but if share price keeps going up and up the wait is worthwhile eh
Aussie consumer confidence nudging higher says Westpac
They said today " Promising lift in buying intentions as cost-of-living squeeze eases."
That's a good sign
Quote from: Basil on May 03, 2025, 01:36 PMThat's good. Interestingly, last year we all thought they got quite a sales boost from Taylor's Swift's concerts in Australia in late February 2024 but that theory doesn't appear to hold water with group sales this half up 5.4%, (7 weeks from 2 February). I reckon Glassons Au sales up ~ 10-11% so far this half and N.Z. sales are flat.
By my reckoning HLG is on track for approx 62-63 cps in eps this year. I worked this out before looking at market screener and I am encouraged to see the two analysts covering this, their average forecast eps this year is 62.3 cps. https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HALLENSTEIN-GLASSON-HOLDI-6495564/finances/
Been doing a bit of modelling of first half - second half profit split. For the last 6 years that has averaged 56.9% 43.1% split, and eps growth from 2019, (unaffected by Covid) to 2024 has been a CAGR of 4.4% per annum. I think growth has been slowed a bit by Covid and the almost endless recession that followed and they can grow eps a bit faster going forward. How much faster, maybe CAGR of 6% ? but the actual rate will ebb and flow with economic cycles. (6% growth is consistent in my valuation methodology as being good value at a forward PE of 14.5 which gives me fair / good value of $9.00 on this year's earnings).
Possibly worth noting that the average analyst forecast is for much stronger growth in FY26 and FY27 with eps growing to 73 (17% growth) and 81 cps (11%). Average analyst price target is $9.25. We're in the last quarter of HLG's FY25 year and it's always best to look ahead because that's what the market does, so looking at FY26's numbers, the average analyst has eps of 73 cps and the shares closed at $7.63 so a forward FY26 PE of only 10.5. Well shy of where I see the fair PE of 14.5. (Briscoes with its very limited growth prospects trades on a mid 15's PE) Hmmm
Probably worth remembering how long this company has been trading, managements capabilities, their fortress balance sheet with no debt and ~ $50m cash on hand, (worth ~ 84 cps). The sustained selling pressure from Hickman's estate share sales seems to have abated, at least temporarily. Wonder how many there are still to go ?
At $8.20 its trading on 11.2 times forecast FY26 EPS. Excellent long term hold. Compares to Briscoes trading on 20 times FY25 earnings with EPS declining in recent years. Even cheap compared to TRA trading on 13.4 times FY26 EPS but then again, Turners have a stellar 10% CAGR track record. Two superbly managed growth stocks that are probably both as cheap as each other.
Got a few more on the index rebalancing dip yesterday at $7.81
Good buying Basil. I couldn't get the $$ into my brokerage account quick enough.
Nice uplift in the HLG SP today - closed at $8.50. Hopefully, heading back to, or past, its ATH of $8.80.
Quote from: Pierre on Jul 01, 2025, 05:43 PMNice uplift in the HLG SP today - closed at $8.50. Hopefully, heading back to, or past, its ATH of $8.80.
Happy to hold a good sized position long term. No question in my mind we're at the bottom of the retail cycle. Glassons Au will keep growing across all future retail cycles. Massive long runway for growth in Australia in the decades ahead. Metrics are very attractive for a company with a CAGR of 6.5% in EPS in the last 5 years. James Glasson doing exceptionally well with Glassons Au, highly engaged and motivated to stay on long term and will likely inherit some of Tim Glassons ~ 20% stake. Fortress balance sheet with no debt and over 80 cps in cash, excellent management, best in class stock turn, highly capital efficient business model e.t.c. e.t.c. A LOT to like about HLG and its prospects for growth over the long term
Oz headlines
Consumer sentiment surges to 3½ year high
Thats a good sign for Glassons ...esp as spring is on way as well
Spread the news ... we've got to stop the recent fall in the share price .... down 10% last week or so
HLG financial year over ...wonder if we are going to get an update soon
Hope margins recovered after what they said at half year
Maybe some punters already know!
They updated their forecast in early Sept last year so not long to wait. I added a few more on weakness the other day as I' really believe in the long term Glassons Australian growth story and the metrics are very attractive given the proven GAGR in earnings.
Good update in tough times. Basil should be happy.
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/457632/attachment/450695/457632-450695.pdf
Gosh that's a very impressive performance in FY25 trading at the bottom of the retail cycle. Looking forward to reading the full report on 26 September and thereafter I will share my thoughts in more detail.
Another great result from the HLG team, possibly assisted to some degree by the collapse this past year of so many others in the Aussie rag trade.
Looking forward to an increased final divvie - maybe 29cps in December?
Forsyth Barr are forecasting 61 cents for FY25. They paid 24.5 cps in April so if Forbar are correct that's a final divvy of 36.5 cps !
Hat tip to Forsyth Barr, their forecasted level of sales and profit were very close to being correct. I remember the days not long ago when I had to be my own analyst on here with no analyst coverage at all. It was sometimes a very lonely experience, (but nevertheless extremely rewarding over the years).
Apart from the trading update itself which is deeply impressive, I liked this bit "The balance sheet for the Group remains strong with record cash reserves"
Quote from: Basil on Aug 28, 2025, 02:22 PMForsyth Barr are forecasting 61 cents for FY25. They paid 24.5 cps in April so if Forbar are correct that's a final divvy of 36.5 cps !
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I much prefer Forbarr's dividend forecast to my own. Let's hope they are right!
That brings up the old chestnut of imputation credits again as I don't especially like unimputed dividends. I know quite some time back HLG reworked the whole head office allocation methodology process with the aim to ensure that the Australian operations carried its fair share of overhead and overheads born by the N.Z. operations were appropriate and N.Z. tax paid at the correct level on net income here.
Obviously I'm not privy to the methodology they used but I am keen for them to apply as much overhead as they can to Australia and as little as possible here to maximize tax payable here which can be passed through as imputation credits.
In the interests of trying to maximise net after tax returns, (maximise imputation credits), for all shareholders, I just flicked Cameron Alderton the CFO an email suggesting that now the Australian sales exceed Kiwi sales, perhaps they might revisit their calculation methodologies.
For Bar Review
Hallenstein Glassons (HLG) reported a strong trading update, with the midpoint of its FY25 profit before tax (PBT) guidance c.+15% ahead of our estimates. Sales were broadly in line with our expectations, with the beat driven by gross margins flat versus last year, compared with our estimate of a -70bp contraction. Considering the level of promotional activity in the market, this is a strong outcome. HLG continues to execute in a challenging operating environment: its NZ businesses are maintaining share in a falling market, while its Glassons Australia business is continuing its track record of impressive growth. We think the risk–reward remains attractive: HLG is on a c.11x 12-month forward PE, we estimate an EPS growth CAGR of c.+11% over the next five years, and we expect it to pay a 7.6% FY26 cash dividend yield. HLG is reporting its FY25 result on 26 September 2025. OUTPERFORM.
What's changed?
Earnings: FY25 to FY27 NPAT increased +15%/+7%/+6% respectively.
Target price: Increased +8% to NZ$10.80.
Another strong result
HLG guided to FY25 sales of NZ$470m, which was +1% ahead of our expectations, and profit before tax of NZ$57.5m to NZ$58.5m, +15% ahead at the midpoint. Gross margins are expected to be flat on the prior year at 59.4%. While the release was light on detail, we suspect the trend of strong growth in Glassons Australia offsetting modest declines in its NZ businesses continued through 2H25. We have increased our FY25 dividend estimate to 58 cents per share (c.+13%), reflecting improved profitability and an 85% payout.
Maintaining share in NZ and growing market share in Australia
The operating backdrop has been challenging for Australasian retailers. Stats NZ retail trade spend on apparel for the six months to June 2025 was up +2% on the prior year. This is broadly in line with our 2H25 sales growth estimates for Glassons NZ and Hallenstein Brothers (c.1%–2%). The Australian Bureau of Statistics electronic card spend on apparel for the same period was up c.+3% on the prior year. We forecast Glassons Australia 2H25 sales growth of c.+14%, reflecting market share growth and new store roll-outs.
Australian opportunity awaits
We forecast an EPS growth CAGR of c.+11% over the next five years, with the primary driver being continued store roll-outs in Glassons Australia. At its AGM in November 2024, HLG noted it could open two to five Glassons Australia stores per year. Assuming new store openings achieve similar sales per store (c.NZ$6m) and NPAT margins (c.9%) as the existing store base, and including leases, fit-out and additional inventory, the incremental ROIC for a new store opening is c.14% (current ROIC 13%, WACC 11%).
Another record result: OUTPERFORM
HLG will report another record year in sales (NZ$470m) and profit before tax (NZ$57.5m to NZ$58.5m) in FY25. This is the fifth consecutive year of record sales and the second consecutive year of record pre-tax profitability. More impressive is the operating backdrop in which it has achieved this growth, with apparel sales in NZ and Australia subdued.
On our revised estimates, HLG is trading on a forward-PE multiple of c.11x and is at the lower end of its listed retail apparel peers despite its strong growth outlook. We forecast EPS growth CAGR over the next five years of c.11%, driven by continued growth in its Glassons Australia business.
Earnings changes
We have increased our FY25 to FY27 NPAT estimates by +15%/+7%/+6% respectively. In FY25, the key beat was at the gross margin level, which was indicated to be flat on the prior year and +70bp higher than we had anticipated. Sales were also slightly better and operating costs slightly lower than we forecast. These changes drive our FY26 and FY27 earnings upgrades. We have increased our FY25 dividend to 58.0 cents (2H25: 33.5 cents), reflecting an 84% payout on our revised earnings estimate, in line with history.
Summary of Forsyth Barr's forecast
FY25 FY26 FY27
Rev (NZ$m) 469.7 507.0 537.9
NPAT(NZ$m) 41.0 44.8 49.4
EPS (NZc) 68.8 75.1 82.8
DPS (NZc) 58.0 64.0 70.5
Gross Yield 8.8% 9.7% 10.7%
Very good quality research in my opinion.
Above gross yields are at $8.52 and assume 75% imputation of dividends.
5 year forward CAGR in EPS I agree with Forbar's view of ~ 11% and note that they have achieved a 5 year EPS CAGR in the last 5 years of over 9% despite all the challenges with Covid and the deep recessionary environment prevailing in N.Z.
Where I differ slightly from Forbar is my assumptions around the dividend and the level of imputation. I think there's a good chance the Directors will want to accelerate their store rollout program in Australia, (certainly I would like to see this to ideally somewhere around 4-5 stores per year). The imputation credit level I see as averaging closer to the 50% level as the level of profitability in Australia and growth there sees the N.Z. operations becoming a gradually smaller part of overall Group sales. Noting sales growth for Glassons Au in the mid teens percentage in recent years, it only takes 5 years at 15% CAGR in Australian sales for sales to double there, while the no growth side of the business lumbers along in N.Z.
Simply put, Glassons Au will become an ever increasingly large part of the business and you can't impute Australian tax onto N.Z. dividends.
Circa 11% EPS growth forecast for the next 5 years + and a proven track record of similar in the past and a forward PE of only just over 11 makes this a classic deep value GARP stock. GARP in this case means both growth at a reasonable price and grab all reasonably priced shares before someone else does lol.
Fully deserves to be rerated to fresh all time high's and wouldn't be an expensive stock on its metrics by any means at Forbar's price target of $10.80..
Final thought. By my calculations 2HFY25 profit is up just on 35% compared to 2H FY24 so the business carries very strong momentum into FY26.
Worth noting that 1H FY25 profit was basically unchanged on PCP so ostensibly all this years profit growth has just occurred in the second half. In my opinion the best guide to the future is the most recent past so I am quite bullish on prospects for FY26.
Basil, it does seem that HLG had a great second half
No doubt most of that growth was in OZ ... prob Glassons
Clothing retail sales as per ABS grew $ sales by about 3.5% over Feb/July.
I'd say Glassons was much higher than that. Growing market share big time.
Both UNI, LOV and CCX reported well, and are experiencing a pick up in sales. Bodes well for HLG over there.
UNI the best comparative for Glassons Au. Very similar size, very similar 5 year CAGR, very similar products. On an underlying basis UNI earned 45.4 cps and was on a FY25 PE of 19.25 Has a 5 year EBIT CAGR of 17.3%. Recent presentation is here https://research.iress.com.au/IDS/old/20250821/02981460.pdf?uid=01B0A051E37A0158EE6B6AB21840A21B616A000096F1A127B669E640093D250091850000&ppv=
Last time I looked at this with full divisional sales and profitability data Glassons Au has a 5 year CAGR of just over 20%
Resignation of Group CEO
The Board of Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Limited has received, with sincere regret, the resignation of its Group Chief Executive, Chris Kinraid, effective on 5 September 2025.
Chris' extensive background and senior level experience across listed retail environments has been instrumental in delivering strong growth in revenue and earnings to the Group, during a challenging economic environment. As a result, he is leaving the Group in a very strong position.
The Board expresses its appreciation of Chris and his significant contribution to both Hallensteins and Glassons and wishes him all the best for the future.
Warren Bell
Chairman
Have to hand it to Chris, he did an incredible job. HLG have weathered the retail storm very well
Did he resign or was he pushed ? My opinion:-
N.Z. operations are likely to have performed very poorly. All the growth has come from Glassons Au over the years which is James Glasson's baby and has been for over 8 years now. I think the very short notice period of just 3 days, (if he was wanted he would have been asked to stay during the search for a new CEO and transition period in my opinion), gives a vital clue that Chris who has not been there for long was not a good cultural fit for the HLG way of doing things.
The fact is he only came on board in FY24 and N.Z. operations have performed very poorly under his stewardship. They called him Group CEO but I think James Glasson is very much his own man and always has been.
I'm not concerned at all by his departure and notwithstanding the polite wording of the announcement I think he was asked to leave for underachievement.
Notice that there was no mention of a replacement search being undertaken. It wouldn't surprise me at all if James Glasson took over as group CEO and tried to clean out some dead wood from the N.Z. side of the business.
Well Chris left Kathmandu ascCFO to come to HLG ...hmmm
Relocated from Melbourne to Auckland ...maybe he's homesick
Could be on the ball Basil with James taking over the whole lot while keeping the passion for Glassons going
Interesting none the less
Could have put his hand up for a massive pay rise of expected a whole bunch of new shares issued on free or cheap terms. That's simply not the HLG way. They've had only 59.6m shares on issue for as long as I can remember.
On another subject they recently said they had a record level of cash on hand at year end. Previous record was $49.9m cash as at the half year report. Wouldn't it be cool if they had $59.6m cash on hand now, ($1 a share) and of course no debt.
I think James's time would be more profitable/productive concentrating on Glassons' Australian growth.
That's where the growth is.
NZ is a retail dead duck currently.
Old saying ;"add to you winners,cut your losses".
Quote from: lorraina on Sep 02, 2025, 03:59 PMI think James's time would be more profitable/productive concentrating on Glassons' Australian growth
On reflection I agree 100%. Do they even need a group CEO ?
Just have the CEO of N.Z. operations and James Glasson.
Not concerned by his departure, and not surprised either. I've never thought CFO's made particularly good CEOs, and was surprised when he got appointed - CFO at KMD with all its B Corp focus and layers upon layers of middle management didn't seem to jive with HLG's MO.
HLG does chew threw its senior executives. Probably not the easiest having two ex CEO's on the Board, a heavy hitter over in OZ, and a particular way of moving fast and staying lean. But that system clearly works for the product and shareholders so if it aint broke don't fix it.
Chris probably got another job (maybe competitor?) So had to go
May find out soon where's he gone
Quote from: winner (n) on Sep 02, 2025, 04:41 PMChris probably got another job (maybe competitor?) So had to go
May find out soon where's he gone
aye. the last fella went to Farmers - he was pretty good I thought. Agree the business does not need a proper group CEO.
Wow. Closed today at new ATH of $9.10!
What does that say about the departure of the Group CEO?
Quote from: Pierre on Sep 03, 2025, 05:31 PMWow. Closed today at new ATH of $9.10!
What does that say about the departure of the Group CEO?
Yep over $9 ...heading to $10 now
The wording "with sincere regret" says a lot. And the short notice. Kind of contradictory unless there is a health issue.
New ATH thoroughly deserved in my opinion. in my view, the first of many to come in the years ahead. Has been a quiet achiever over the long run and they have executed extremely well against all the challenges that Covid and the very long recession have thrown up in the last 5 years. Historical 5 year EPS CAGR of 9%. Forsyth Barr forecasting next 5 years EPS CAGR of 11% per annum and yet at $9.10 still trades on very modest metrics of only 12 times FY26 earnings and a gross forecast yield of 8.9%, which I expect to grow in line with EPS in the years ahead. PEG ratio is just a fraction over 1. I think Forsyth Barr's price target of $10.80 is quite conservative. Holding lots, bottom drawer, would like some more, enough said.
Do you think its a good idea for HLG and perhaps also TRA to do a share split ?
Seaweed on the other channel raised the possibility of a share split the other day and perhaps it was a coincidence but I had been thinking exactly the same thing that day. I'd really like everyone who is a shareholder in these two companies to express their opinion and I'll ask a friend to post this on the other channel. If enough people share their point of view I undertake to share links to the threads on both channels and communicate with the boards of both companies.
As an accountant I have to point out it adds no value to the company per se, in fact there may be a material cost to implement a split but there is no question it would boost liquidity and I think that's a very good thing. (It should be noted that both these companies are recent entrants to the NZX50 and there are ongoing liquidity requirements that need to be maintained to stay in the index so a split will certainly not do any harm in that respect and may be quite assistive).
Here's a link to Investopedia on share splits which takes a deep dive into the pro's and con's. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stocksplit.asp
It's mostly focused on the American market so fractional ownership is not a consideration here to any major extent, (I understand that Sharsies does offer it).
I think the sweet spot for retail interest in N.Z. in terms of pricing is in the 50 cents to $5 range.
My opinion is a 2, 3, 4 or 5 :1 split would do neither company any harm and quite possibly might generate more interest from retail investors. My preference would be if there's going to be a split, do the job properly and go for a 5:1 split.
What do you think ?
Sounds like a goer to me.
Nice post Basil and worthy of discussion.
That's a no from me for both companies.
I reckon it may lead to greater price volatility and there will be a cost to the company for no discernible benefit for long term shareholders. Given I'm not a trader I don't care about daily volatility, unless it presents a nice buying opportunity.
But I hear you about liquidity for NZ50...it may help with that. But the other test, being free market float (or whatever it is called) won't change for HLG unless the Glassons sell some of their shares.
Votes so far:
Yes : 2 (Basil, FM)
No : 1 (Ferg)
No point incurring the cost for no reason.
It's $10 not $1000.
Even if it were $1000, fractional shares are offered on the various platforms.
Hell even with my purchase of Subaru stock last year, the minimum amount was $2800 (100 share lot at 2400 yen).
Interesting thought Basil. My 2 cents is... The market activity on any particular trading day represents the total $$ value of the buyers and sellers that can be matched to make a trade. I'm not sure increasing the number of shares being transacted - just at a lower unit price - makes a difference to the overall liquidity?
It really is a concern for the NZX that we've got HLG and Turners - both well managed companies - that can only attract <$100k of trading each per day.
I think it's all psychological, the more shares you own the more of the company you think you own
The only point I see in a share split would be to increase liquidity which would help with indicie inclusion.
With more shares issues would it make a difference to trading and increase more volatile intra day trading?
What won't change the running of the business and its performance which gets reflected in the share price and dividends paid out twice yearly.
So for me its a no change.
Many thanks to all who have outlined their thoughts on this so far.
Stock Splits enhancing market liquidity - another perspective and look at the pro's and con's.
https://www.easystreetinvesting.com/stock-splits-enhancing-market-liquidity/
"Stock splits can seem like a financial enigma, but they're a powerful tool for companies aiming to boost their stock's liquidity. In essence, a split takes existing shares and divides them into more pieces—making each share more affordable for investors. This maneuver can fuel trading activity and open the door for new investors who may have been priced out before"
Who is priced out at $9?
There is a (weak) argument when it's a significant price... I say weak because fractional shares are available in most markets.
Sometimes I wish HLG could make just a little bit more effort to be shareholder friendly. They are pretty scant with the information and sometimes do the minimum that's required of them. I certainly don't want them going and building up an investor relations team but just a little bit more information, more releases, etc.
I don't think there is much doubt that there is a pretty substantial illiquidity discount built into the share price, and that's always been the case. That's great when you are buying, great for the yield generated along the way, and inconsequential while you are happily holding it. But it would be nice to have the option value of realising those shares without that discount if you ever needed to for whatever reason.
The liquidity remains poor on a day to day basis, despite being in the NZX50 and now having two analysts covering it. I suppose too many long term holders hoarding shares for the yield and uninterested in selling. I built up a large holding in the company in early 2024 @ around 5.50-5.60 a share and it took months to accumulate.
The liquidity is similar to Turners. I was of the mind a few months ago to build into a big position and it was hard without pushing the price up too much.
that's the worrying thing about the NZX. There is capital flight from our home exchange among domestic investors (not necessarily a bad thing - home bias isn't good) and we make it too bloody hard and expensive for offshore platforms to access our shares. Its a real issue for the NZX.
Yeah and tbf the overall performance of NZX listed businesses in the last 5 years has been woeful. Partially due to the economic conditions and partially pi$$ poor management.
Quote from: Fiordland Moose on Sep 06, 2025, 10:45 AMSometimes I wish HLG could make just a little bit more effort to be shareholder friendly. They are pretty scant with the information and sometimes do the minimum that's required of them. I certainly don't want them going and building up an investor relations team but just a little bit more information, more releases, etc.
I don't think there is much doubt that there is a pretty substantial illiquidity discount built into the share price, and that's always been the case. That's great when you are buying, great for the yield generated along the way, and inconsequential while you are happily holding it. But it would be nice to have the option value of realising those shares without that discount if you ever needed to for whatever reason.
The liquidity remains poor on a day to day basis, despite being in the NZX50 and now having two analysts covering it. I suppose too many long term holders hoarding shares for the yield and uninterested in selling. I built up a large holding in the company in early 2024 @ around 5.50-5.60 a share and it took months to accumulate.
I'm glad Basil bought up the subject. We were talking about it a year or two back. Like you Fiordland Moose I had too hard a time when buying or selling HLG. It was pushing sp up too high when buying and when selling pushing down too low. Another thing that pis-ed me off was I would buy $15,000 or $20,000 worth of shares and sp would go up to say $8 as an example, then at end of day someone comes along and sells $1,000 worth and pushes sp down to maybe $7.70c. I was also buying in the $5 and $6 days but was too hard to get in and out. Another thing I would like to point out, if they had a five to one share split the company would go from about 60,000,000 to 300,000,000 shares. Lets say the shares were $10 each and after split they become $2 each which is a 5 to 1 split. Your every day Joe Blog traders who are used to seeing HLG shares at $10 now trading at $2 and the mind will be telling you it is too cheap for a $10 share to be trading at $2 and will make you want to buy more at $2. The $2 shares are more likely to go from $2 to $3 than before the split of the shares equivalent going from $10 to $15. At $2 it is still paying over a 10c div. I was lucky to have a fairly large size investment mature 5 months ago and have bought into 18 different companies since then. Most of them are in $1 to $3 range and the only ones above that are in the $7 range which is FSF and TRA. I would love to buy more HLG, but seeing sp at $9 plus puts me off and I end up buying more FSF. So come on HLG management lets have a 5 to 1 share split and get some action. We want action! I promise to buy in at $2 and help push sp up again to wherever. That is all I have to say.
Something went wrong. My posting joined onto the end of Fiordland Moose posting. So the start of my post is from....I'm glad Basil bought up the subject. Don't know how that happened.
Quote from: seaweed on Sep 06, 2025, 06:02 PMSomething went wrong. My posting joined onto the end of Fiordland Moose posting. So the start of my post is from....I'm glad Basil bought up the subject. Don't know how that happened.
Fixed for you Seaweed.
Quote from: seaweed on Sep 06, 2025, 05:55 PMI'm glad Basil bought up the subject. We were talking about it a year or two back. Like you Fiordland Moose I had too hard a time when buying or selling HLG. It was pushing sp up too high when buying and when selling pushing down too low. Another thing that pis-ed me off was I would buy $15,000 or $20,000 worth of shares and sp would go up to say $8 as an example, then at end of day someone comes along and sells $1,000 worth and pushes sp down to maybe $7.70c. I was also buying in the $5 and $6 days but was too hard to get in and out.
Another thing I would like to point out, if they had a five to one share split the company would go from about 60,000,000 to 300,000,000 shares. Lets say the shares were $10 each and after split they become $2 each which is a 5 to 1 split. Your every day Joe Blog traders who are used to seeing HLG shares at $10 now trading at $2 and the mind will be telling you it is too cheap for a $10 share to be trading at $2 and will make you want to buy more at $2. The $2 shares are more likely to go from $2 to $3 than before the split of the shares equivalent going from $10 to $15. At $2 it is still paying over a 10c div.
I was lucky to have a fairly large size investment mature 5 months ago and have bought into 18 different companies since then. Most of them are in $1 to $3 range and the only ones above that are in the $7 range which is FSF and TRA. I would love to buy more HLG, but seeing sp at $9 plus puts me off and I end up buying more FSF. So come on HLG management lets have a 5 to 1 share split and get some action. We want action! I promise to buy in at $2 and help push sp up again to wherever. That is all I have to say.
Thank you LF. And go for it Basil. I am for a share split.
Ryman did a 5 foe 1 in 2007 when share price was about $10
Seemed to increase liquidity and Ryman share price didn't seem to suffer too much through the GFC turmoil
Maybe we can call that a successful split
Quote from: Fiordland Moose on Sep 06, 2025, 10:45 AMI don't think there is much doubt that there is a pretty substantial illiquidity discount built into the share price, and that's always been the case.
Thanks for your thoughts. I'm not so sure its just a liquidity issue. For example, I'm aware that Briscoes was held back from NZX50 inclusion for a while as it didn't meet liquidity requirements and yet with no EPS growth in the last 5 years and at best very modest prospects for growth in future years, after inclusion the price has settled such that it trades on a consensus FY26 PE of 19.3
Perhaps with the majority of HLG sales now being with Glassons Au, at some point as this trend towards Australian sales becoming ever more dominant, a listing in Australia is something that might be in shareholders best interests ? But I'm not so sure with the not inconsiderable extra listing costs and annual fees that's the answer either. Maybe the market is only really just starting to wake up to the fact that HLG is not the cyclical Kiwi domestic apparel retailer it once was ? Maybe a few more years of double digit earnings growth is all that's really needed to build the companies reputation for growth ? Perhaps none of this matters and the present situation is a golden opportunity for value investors buying a very well run and well proven Australasian growth story that still trades on compelling metrics ?
I remember first buying into HLG in 2016 at $2.70 before Glassons Au growth was even a thing to be considered. I only ever bought for the gross yield which was 15% back then and never expected anything else because back then the company was a cyclical N.Z. apparel company with only very minor Australian sales. The growth story since then with Glassons Au has been quite remarkable. The company itself alluded to this at last years AGM. In my opinion, It wouldn't hurt HLG to continue highlighting the growth opportunities in Australia including the size of the total addressable market to analysts and to consider concentrating capital towards expansion there. If more rapid expansion in Australia comes at the expense of some N.Z. stores, I seriously doubt that's going to be to any shareholders detriment. Lets be honest, the Kiwi market is pretty saturated already with Hallenstein and Glassons stores for 5.3 million people, but for Australia with nearly 27 million people, there's an enormous opportunity for expansion with a VERY long runway for growth.
Thanks Winner. Santana just did a 3:1 split very recently and it hasn't done their liquidity or overall shareholder value any harm.
P.S. Thanks to all who have shared their thoughts to date, please keep them coming. In about one weeks time I'll share links to the threads on both forums with the boards of both companies so they can get an idea of what shareholders are thinking.
Thought this was well written and sums up a share split well.
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976518219/how-share-splits-and-consolidation-affect-the-value-of-a-business.html
Few other bits and bobs for your list Basil.
Extending the use of franking credits to Australian domiciled investors. Given Australians propensity to better reward growth would be great to get more aussies on the register, and clearly Glassons generates a lot of australian tax paid income, so attaching franking credits to future dividends would be a good place to start.
Not a big fan of dual listings but at some point it makes sense to question what exchange is the most logical to have a primary listing on. Note I'm not advocating it - just raising its possibility.
There are likely more optimal transfer pricing mechanisms available to retain more profit in NZ - ie NZ entities legally owning the inventory physically located in Australian warehouses (and arranging their import from Asia), with a back to back intercompany sale (with margin) occurring once dispatched to stores (or a flash sale once sold to a customer). Obviously complex and need to satisfy two tax authorities at the same time but point there are fairly standard ways of structuring the affairs over and above the current status quo (but noting the current regime looks to be pretty fair and conservatively structured)
As Percy wisely said elsewhere, "it all depends on what matters to Tim Glasson." But a good thought exercise none the less.
Thinking about some of the comments a share split would be of benefit to traders not long term investors a company's focus would be on the latter not the former
decent article about the mechanics and marketing of women's fast fashion in Australia
https://archive.is/20250908203040/https://www.afr.com/companies/retail/princess-polly-rakes-it-in-by-landing-on-every-young-woman-s-feed-20250903-p5ms35
NB noticed I cant get the website to work. Copy and paste the link below into removepaywalls.com and you should be able to read
https://www.afr.com/companies/retail/princess-polly-rakes-it-in-by-landing-on-every-young-woman-s-feed-20250903-p5ms35
According to the NZX competition on the other channel, inclusive of the dividend paid in April HLG only up 8.5% YTD i.e. people haven't missed the boat despite how well HLG are performing.. Backing out an expected ~ 33 cent FY25 final divvy, at a net $8.43 invested ($8.76 less 33 cents back for FY25 final divvy), for FY26 and beyond investment case and income, based on Forsyth Barr's forecasts HLG metrics are as follows:-
FY26 EPS 75.1 DPS 64.0 with 75% imputation gives a PE of 11.2 and Gross Yield of 9.6%
FY27 EPS 82.8 DPS 70.5 with 75% imputation gives a PE of 10.2 and Gross Yield of 10.6%
5 Year EPS CAGR is 9% as mentioned previously.
My hope is they don't pay out quite that much and use the earnings to accelerate the expansion of Glasson's Australia stores. Directing virtually all future investment to Glassons Au makes really good common sense to me. (They have approx. the same number of Glassons stores in N.Z. as Australia despite there being 5.3m people here and approx. 27m people and a far stronger economy there). The size of the total addressable market and scope for a very long runway of growth is perfectly clear to me. Also, Australia is simply a more wealthy country than N.Z. and a better case for return on capital invested.
The metrics and growth story look compelling to me. HLG Australasia's most attractively priced growth company ? Looking forward to the annual result on Friday.
Do you see headwinds with the NZD/USD cross rate for margins? If NZ interest rates fall relative to USD that could see a lower NZD -> higher COGS % for the likes of HLG.
That's certainly possible and a key risk Ferg but we're not far off the ten year average v the $US and the US are talking about 2-3 cuts this year and more cash rate cuts next year. Also their debt to GDP is a whopping 122% and we're about 40% so the chance of the US dollar declining in value on a trade weighted basis over the medium term is something that I see as very much on the cards too. You might find this interesting. https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/debt-to-gdp-ratio-by-country
Quote from: Ferg on Sep 22, 2025, 11:11 AMDo you see headwinds with the NZD/USD cross rate for margins? If NZ interest rates fall relative to USD that could see a lower NZD -> higher COGS % for the likes of HLG.
Good question Ferg
Based on 6 monthly results since 2007 sometimes HLG GM% falls when the NZD falls, sometimes the HLG GM% rises when the NZD falls, sometimes the HLG GM% rises when the NZD goes up and sometimes the HLG GM% falls when the NZD goes up
Suppose it all comes down to well HLG manage things .... ie pricing as well as a bit of hedging.
In saying that over the period since 2007 there has been a weak (about 20%) negative correlation between the two
But interesting is that since 2014 the NZD has trended down from 82 to its current 58 but HLG GM% has generally ranged 58%/60%..... and currently higher than it was in 2014
Yes if the NZD falls a risk to HLG margins but they seem to manage those risks well.
On NZD/USD, I see the USD as being structurally weak into the foreseeable future. However, NZD/USD is also under 60 cents which is IMO overly strong when considering history. So strengthening NZD vs USD makes sense.
We'll know on Friday but they did say FY25 gross margin % was consistent with the prior year.
That implies H2 GM% was higher than H1 which a great effort
Also during FY25 NZD a bit weeker than FY24 period so consirsten GM% pretty good effort .... sign of good management////*/
This is the oldest annual report I can find online, 2011 https://www.hallensteinglasson.co.nz/annual-report/2011 This is back in the day when they were a no growth mainly N.Z. cyclical company but it has 7 years of figures going back to 2005, (see page 5) and they seem to have done okay in all those years with varying exchange rates. I can recall a major business deal I was working on, from memory 2000 or 2001 that went pear shaped because the Kiwi fell out of bed to reach a low of 40cents $US just in the final stages of negotiations. Wonder how HLG coped with an exchange rate like that in those years ? Must have managed it okay because they're still here and have been for many decades, (NZX's oldest listed company)
Anyway...here's a 34 year chart from 1991 to date of $Kiwi v $US. Think I read somewhere the average over the long run has been about 62 cents. https://www.macrotrends.net/2557/new-zealand-us-dollar-exchange-rate-historical-chart#google_vignette
Quote from: Basil on Sep 22, 2025, 10:31 AMMy hope is they don't pay out quite that much and use the earnings to accelerate the expansion of Glasson's Australia stores. Directing virtually all future investment to Glassons Au makes really good common sense to me. (They have approx. the same number of Glassons stores in N.Z. as Australia despite there being 5.3m people here and approx. 27m people and a far stronger economy there). The size of the total addressable market and scope for a very long runway of growth is perfectly clear to me. Also, Australia is simply a more wealthy country than N.Z. and a better case for return on capital invested.
Don't most New Zealand companies go into Australia thinking the exact same thing, only to get horribly burnt and waste a ton of money?
Harsh but true. I believe more than 50% of companies expanding in Australia fall on their face but have a look at posts #1307 and #1319 in this thread.
Glassons Au sales have grown at a CAGR of 21% per annum for the last 5 years. That speaks for itself but if you want to look back further DYOR and check out what Glassons Au sales were in 2016 and what they are now when they report their annual result on Friday. The growth has been absolutely outstanding and transformative. What was once ostensibly a no growth N.Z. cyclical apparel company is now an outstanding Australasian growth company, (still priced as though it has very little growth).
Full year results published tomorrow ...just the detail as we know the answers already
Main part is how big X is in 'Sales for first seven weeks of new year were X% up on pcp'
Expectations are high as KMD said Kathmandu same store sales for first seven weeks were up 22% on last year
Jeez if Kathmandu can do do 22% the mind boggles what HLG will do
Looking forward to an out sized X tomorrow
I thought KMD said sales were up 10.5% ?
I didn't read any further so maybe they closed down a number of stores ?
Anyway, August a big month for KMD winter gear sales so not sure we can draw parallels.
Amoung many other things, I'm looking for details of the dividend and imputation level, how many new stores they opened during the year, divisional profitability within the business, sales growth with Glassons Au, sales info FY26 year to date, any colour around their plans for store expansion in FY26 and beyound and the detail of their record ever cash on hand at balance date. A share split announcement would be very welcome.
Forsyth Barr forecasting sales in F26 will be up 7.9% to $507m. Some will recall their target price of $10.80.
My computer in the shop for an upgrade. Will post more detailed thoughts on the weekend.
First impressions. A very strong result at the top end of guidance range. Dividend about what I expected. Imputation level a little lower than ideal.
Glassons N.Z net profit surprised to the upside, very good. Hallensteins continues to disappoint as expected.
Glassons Au continues its 9 year strong growth performance and I expect that to continue in the future.
Sales growth year to date at 12.9% is well ahead of analysts and my expectations.
Holding a record, by a long way, $58m cash on hand at balance date is very close indeed to the $1 per share I was hoping for. They are very well placed to grow in the years ahead.
Remarkable performance in a very weak economy.
I'm curious, does anyone know how much of the $15m annual capex (per cash flow statement) is growth versus refurb/lights on?
Stock turns up to 6.6 times per year
Every 8$1 of stock held generates a whopping $9.66 of Gross Margin
No wonder they make heaps
Those financials a pristine :o
Nice growth in Oz but also nice cost control in Glassons NZ where sales were up 1.7% (~$1.9m) but NPBT was up 27% or $4.2m.
Quote from: Ferg on Sep 26, 2025, 10:49 AMNice growth in Oz but also nice cost control in Glassons NZ where sales were up 1.7% (~$1.9m) but NPBT was up 27% or $4.2m.
Also to note Glassons NZ GP margin has much improved...2H FY25 was 58.1%, vs 56% in 2H FY24 (not meaningful to compare to 1H as Glassons NZ has the most seasonality of all the brands and most pronounced lift in GP relative to 1H).
Glassons NZ GP has been the problem child for the group - been on a steep downward trend since FY18, bottoming out in FY22/FY23, and upward trend since. Best 2h GP% in 5 years, getting back to FY20 levels.
That +15% growth fromn Glassons AU was achieved in a market which grew by just under 3%. Market being household spend on clothing.
Big market share gains
Likely to continue
Quote from: winner (n) on Sep 26, 2025, 11:49 AMThat +15% growth fromn Glassons AU was achieved in a market which grew by just under 3%. Market being household spend on clothing.
Big market share gains
Likely to continue
And healthy sign was that that 15% growth was spread over the full year H1 and H2 growth basically the ...and no doubt up at least 15% so far in FY26
According to market screener average analyst forecasts for FY 26 and FY 27 was for 6.5% sales growth to $501m and approx 5% in FY27 to $527m.
This to lead to eps of 77 and 85 cps respectively.
On the face of it those sales estimates look too conservative and I think we are likely to see analyst upgrades on Monday. Forsyth Barr already at $10.80 fair value.
The business appears to be in great shape and if we get decent cuts from the RBNZ we might finally emerge from years of recession. HLG has managed all the challenges of the last 5 years extremely well.
Can't decide if I prefer this to TRA or not. Gosh there's so much to like about both. Solution. Make them equal #1 largest portfolio position.
Quote from: Basil on Sep 26, 2025, 03:18 PMCan't decide if I prefer this to TRA or not. Gosh there's so much to like about both. Solution. Make them equal #1 largest portfolio position.
I already have!
Quote from: Basil on Sep 26, 2025, 03:18 PMAccording to market screener average analyst forecasts for FY 26 and FY 27 was for 6.5% sales growth to $501m and approx 5% in FY27 to $527m.
This to lead to eps of 77 and 85 cps respectively.
On the face of it those sales estimates look too conservative and I think we are likely to see analyst upgrades on Monday. Forsyth Barr already at $10.80 fair value.
The business appears to be in great shape and if we get decent cuts from the RBNZ we might finally emerge from years of recession. HLG has managed all the challenges of the last 5 years extremely well.
Can't decide if I prefer this to TRA or not. Gosh there's so much to like about both. Solution. Make them equal #1 largest portfolio position.
Like you I hold both, but definitely more confident in / prefer Turners. And the fully imputed dividend is a nice kicker.
Just going to re-post this extract from a post I made in the dividend hound thread so people can appreciate the growth of Glassons Au over the years.
QuoteIts very important with income investing to not just focus on the current return but to think about how its going to grow over time.
Maybe a worked example best illustrates this. When I first bought into HLG at $2.70 in August 2016, ironically enough I only ever invested for income. They had built a very, very long and stable track record of paying excellent dividend returns and as you can see from the 2016 annual report here file:///C:/Users/user/Downloads/3367_HG_Annual_Report_2016_FINAL_WEB.pdf , see page 3 were paying 30 cps in dividends, fully imputed, worth 30 / 0.72 = 41.7 cps gross. 41.7 / 270 = 15.4% gross return.
I'd be happy as a pig in mud collecting those dividends forever and a day, and I figured with their very long history I could rely on them. Little did I realise that James Glasson was about to start driving growth with Glassons Au and sales there have grown from $41.2m in 2016 to $251.5m in FY25, that's a 9 year CAGR of 22.3% ! That's transformed the company from a no growth mainly N.Z. operation to a strongly growing Australasian company which now has more than 53% of its sales with Glasson's Au.
The share price has more than tripled and dividends have grown nicely. To be honest, I faced a barrage of criticism on the other forum about this strategy. All sorts of people told me that Zara for one and many others were suggested, in fact a whole host of other overseas retailers would destroy Glassons market share. Its never happened and their market share in Australia continues to grow very strongly.
At the core of my belief is that the target market, women in the 13-30 year's demographic want to inspect the clothes for themselves, feel the fabric and check the fit and most importantly of all, try the garments on so they can be sure they look their best. For many, the ethical ESG approach Glassons take is also important. Aside from that is the joy of going out shopping and shopping in a friendly, modern welcoming environment. The times I have gone into Glassons stores to buy gift vouchers for my kids and now grandkids, I have been very impressed with the stores and how friendly and welcoming the store manager has made me feel. The modern stores that are well lit, well laid out, welcoming staff and mid price point are some of their key attributes. Keep in mind Hallensteins can trace its roots back 149 years https://shareinvestornz.blogspot.com/2010/06/history-of-hallenstein-glasson-holdings.html#:~:text=His%20first%20store%20opened%20in%20the%20Octagon%20in,and%20in%20Wellington%20and%20Oamaru%20the%20year%20after. and Glassons started in 1918, 107 years ago. Imagine all the challenges both brands have withstood over the years.
Updating my HLG stuff I did this
Prob tells a story ...methinks about the future than the past
IMG_6234.png
Thanks Winner. The question is, why is Briscoes almost valued twice as much ?
One thing I admire HLG for is their clean set of accounts and reporting. No normalisation crap, just straight forward reporting.
KPI performance metrics are very consistent over the years
Gross Margin % generally about 59%/60% 0f sales ....stock turns world class .....employee costs consistently about 18% of sales and occupancy costs about 9% of sales ... all through good and not so good times.
All comes to Profit Margin of about 9% +/- a bit
To me all signs of good management
Keep on doing that and growing sales the future looks bright
You'd notice I rave about HLG world class stock management. KPIs shown below
That management drives gross margin $s and great returns on the capital invested in stock. High margins and high stock turns one of main reasons they got $50m ir so in the bank.
That $9.51 of Gross Margin for every $1 in inventory is incredible ...and see how it's getting higher as they grow,IMG_6235.png
WOW, that's impressive. $58.33m cash in the bank to be precise or just on 98 cents a share with no debt !
I've emailed the CFO for some more colour around the prior period adjustment for tax of $1.869m, see note 6.1. Will update you guys when I hear back. That's worth 3.1 cps and as it clearly relates to prior periods that takes diluted EPS to 69.2 cps and trades on a historical PE of 12.9. 5 year EPS CAGR is 8%, (eps was 47 cps in FY20)
If they can do 77 cps in FY27 which looks eminently achievable to me the FY26 PE is just 11.6. Crickey that is cheap for the very high quality of the company, its management, its systems and the way its been growing.
What I like the most about HLG if I had to single out one thing, is the very conservative way they go about running the business and growing it. They run a very tight ship for shareholders benefit and never seem to lose sight of their primary objective to serve shareholders interests as first and foremost. Glassons a 108 year old company and Hallensteins 149 year and its being run like the board and management are determined the business will still be thriving a hundred years from now..
Quote from: winner (n) on Sep 28, 2025, 09:53 AMOne thing I admire HLG for is their clean set of accounts and reporting. No normalisation crap, just straight forward reporting.
KPI performance metrics are very consistent over the years
Gross Margin % generally about 59%/60% 0f sales ....stock turns world class .....employee costs consistently about 18% of sales and occupancy costs about 9% of sales ... all through good and not so good times.
All comes to Profit Margin of about 9% +/- a bit
To me all signs of good management
Keep on doing that and growing sales the future looks bright
Occupancy costs of about 9% of sales surprises me.
I would have thought Malls would have them up over 15%.\
Perhaps HLG strong online sales help to reduce this figure.?
Quote from: Basil on Sep 28, 2025, 12:12 PMI've emailed the CFO for some more colour around the prior period adjustment for tax of $1.869m, see note 6.1. Will update you guys when I hear back. That's worth 3.1 cps and as it clearly relates to prior periods that takes diluted EPS to 69.2 cps and trades on a historical PE of 12.9. 5 year EPS CAGR is 8%, (eps was 47 cps in FY20)
will be good to have some certainty on that...2H FY25 had tax expense of 35.8%, and full year of 32.4% - when without the adjustment they are 29.2% for both, respectively. Note in FY24 there was a prior period adjustment (a positive of 427) so could just be one of those things that swings about and we should assume nil adjustments for most years. I wondered if it could be a wash up of all the corporate restructuring undertaken for its previous transfer pricing activities and last years removal depreciation on commercial buildings. I note the tax rate and its impact on NPAT was the only miss relative to analyst and market expectations and very hopeful its just a one off this year as a full year tax rate of 32.4% is a big drag on npat and potential dividends vs something like 29.2%....
Wish HLG could just make brief mentions of things like this in their press release to the market - doesn't take long - and provides more colour.
I suppose the imputation level was a surprise to some but I think we need to reset our expectations that, potentially. It seems logical that as more profits are produced in Australia that the level of imputation will grind down over time (unless the transfer pricing allows profits brought back into NZ can scale alongside AU activity which we dont have much colour on). Have to take the bad with the good.
a picture tells a thousand words
Quote from: Fiordland Moose on Sep 28, 2025, 12:30 PMwill be good to have some certainty on that...2H FY25 had tax expense of 35.8%, and full year of 32.4% - when without the adjustment they are 29.2% for both, respectively. Note in FY24 there was a prior period adjustment (a positive of 427) so could just be one of those things that swings about and we should assume nil adjustments for most years. I wondered if it could be a wash up of all the corporate restructuring undertaken for its previous transfer pricing activities and last years removal depreciation on commercial buildings. I note the tax rate and its impact on NPAT was the only miss relative to analyst and market expectations and very hopeful its just a one off this year as a full year tax rate of 32.4% is a big drag on npat and potential dividends vs something like 29.2%....
Rest assured I have also specifically asked Cameron how we should be thinking about the FY26 average group tax rate, approx. 29%?
To your other point, agree 100%, an analyst briefing and Q&A call after the announcement would do a lot to boost analyst and investor engagement and should be on their program now they're an NZX50 constituent. I never thought 75% was sustainable, that's simply not logical and I have been a little surprised analysts all jumped on the most recent 75% imputation level and accepted that as the benchmark going forward.. Possibly worth noting if Australian sales keep growing at a 15% CAGR for the next 5 years they will be just north of $500m in FY30 and N.Z. sales likely to remain fairly flat at circa $220m, representing just ~30% of group sales. Maybe analysts need to think about that when forecasting their imputation level going forward. That said, the recovery in margin for Glasson's N.Z. that you astutely noted gives some encouragement regarding the resiliency of the current imputation rate.
there is still (one would hope!) a cyclical rebound in apparel demand in NZ to look forward to.
any day now. Any...day....or year, or decade. It'll come. maybe. hopefully.
survive till 2026 and a half? regardless, will help with imputation when it occurs.
For Bar update
Hallenstein Glassons (HLG) reported a solid FY25 result, with profit before tax (PBT) of NZ$58.4m, +12% ahead of FY24 and at the top end of its guidance range. HLG did an admirable job of defending profitability in its NZ businesses while continuing to grow Glassons Australia. Trading through the first seven weeks of FY26 was also strong, with +13% group sales growth. There was no update on CEO succession, with ex-CEO Chris Kinraid having left the business in early September 2025. We continue to view the risk–reward as attractive, with the business: (1) in a strong cash position (NZ$58m net cash); (2) trading on a one-year forward PE of c.11x; (3) expected to deliver solid earnings growth (12% FY25 to FY28E EPS CAGR); and (4) paying a partially imputed c.7.4% FY26E cash dividend. OUTPERFORM.
What's changed?
Earnings: Revised our FY26 to FY28 EPS estimates by +4%/+4%/+5% respectively
Target price: Increased +3% to NZ$11.10.
Another record FY25 result
HLG reported its second consecutive record PBT result of NZ$58.4m in FY25, which is impressive in light of the challenging operating backdrop, particularly in NZ. Glassons Australia continues to be the primary growth driver, with sales up +15% on the prior year, driving a +16% increase in PBT to NZ$34.2m. Glassons NZ also grew PBT +27% to NZ$19.2m, driven by a +2% increase in sales and c.+120bp of gross margin expansion. This was partially offset by the Hallenstein Brothers business, where PBT fell -36% to NZ$4.8m due to broadly flat sales but -200bp of gross margin contraction versus the prior year.
Positioned for growth in Australia
HLG is well positioned to further its growth aspirations in Australia, with NZ$58m of net cash on its balance sheet and the completion of its purpose-built warehouse in 2H26. Glassons Australia has gone from being broadly breakeven in FY17 to c.57% of group earnings in FY25. We forecast an FY25 to FY28E EBITDA CAGR of c.15%, underpinned by modest store openings (~two per year) and solid sales per store growth CAGR of c.6% as the business continues to take market share.
Strong start to FY26 but lots of trades to make
Sales grew +13% in the first seven weeks of FY26. HLG cautioned not to treat this as indicative of year-ahead performance, given key Black Friday and Christmas trading periods are still ahead of it. The strong start to the year continues to be driven by Australia, where the consumer has been more robust but also where Glassons Australia has increased its market share by a factor of almost four times over the last decade. A trading update will be provided at HLG's annual shareholder meeting in December 2025
Buying quality; OUTPERFORM
HLG is trading on a one-year forward PE of c.11x, in line with its history but below its apparel retail peers. We continue to view the risk–reward as attractive in light of forecast EPS growth, net cash position, and its strong dividend yield. Brand performance is below.
Glassons Australia—sales up +15.3% on the year prior to NZ$252m. Gross margin down -5bp to 61.5%. PBT of NZ$34.2m, up +16% on the prior year. Two new stores opened in the year (Sunshine Coast, Harbour Town Adelaide). HLG is currently working on a new purpose-built warehouse expected to be ready in 2H26.
Glassons NZ—sales up +1.7% on the year prior to NZ$112m. Gross margin up +120bp to 56.5%. PBT of NZ$19.2m, up +27% on the prior year. Two new stores in FY26 (Manawa Bay and Frankton, Queenstown), and the Timaru store closed in August 2024.
Hallenstein Brothers—sales flat on the year prior at NZ$107m. Gross margin down -200bp to 57.2%. PBT of NZ$4.8m, down -36% on the prior year. One new store at Manawa Bay, plus a new concept design store rolled out in Silverdale, Auckland.
Earnings changes
We increase our FY26 to FY28 EPS estimates by +4%/+4%/+5% respectively. This is largely driven by upgrades to our Glassons NZ estimates at both the sales and gross margin line. Our PBT estimates increase +8%/+8%/+9%, slightly higher than our NPAT estimates, with a higher effective tax assumption being the key difference. We estimate FY26 capex of NZ$24m, including the estimated NZ$5m warehouse costs for Glassons Australia.
2025 2026 2027 2028
EPS* (NZc) 66.2 78.2 86.3 92.4
DPS (NZc) 55.0 66.5 73.5 78.5
NZDAUD falling. Guy on radio says could go down further from 88 to 86 or lower
That could impact bottom line by $2m odd when AU earnings are translated into NZD
Quote from: winner (n) on Sep 29, 2025, 08:15 AMNZDAUD falling. Guy on radio says could go down further from 88 to 86 or lower
That could impact bottom line by $2m odd when AU earnings are translated into NZD
You could also say the NZD/USD cross could go lower as well making it more expensive to import the clothes.
Great if you holding AUS dollar stocks that payout in Kanga's
Quote from: Greekwatchdog on Sep 29, 2025, 08:36 AMYou could also say the NZD/USD cross could go lower as well making it more expensive to import the clothes.
Just put the prices up ... no worries
Quote from: winner (n) on Sep 29, 2025, 08:55 AMJust put the prices up ... no worries
Yeah righto, alls sweet then
Quote from: Greekwatchdog on Sep 29, 2025, 08:58 AMYeah righto, alls sweet then
Hedging helps this year
Quote from: winner (n) on Sep 29, 2025, 09:15 AMHedging helps this year
Look, its well run company so I would expect them to be doing that anyhow. Just pointing out that its not all win, win out there.
Anyway put this back in bottom draw and let them do what they do for another year or 5
Quote from: Greekwatchdog on Sep 29, 2025, 07:10 AM..... 2025 2026 2027 2028
EPS* (NZc) 66.2 78.2 86.3 92.4
DPS (NZc) 55.0 66.5 73.5 78.5
Imp % 56 50 49 48
PE at $8.95 13.5 11.4 10.4 9.7
Gross Yield 7.3% 8.8% 9.5% 10.1%
I've done some analysis on expected level of imputation credits in the years ahead, applied that to the forecasted Forsyth Barr forecast dividends and calculated the gross yield for the years ahead, noted above. Also calculated future PE's. Worth noting that all these calculations are done on the current share price which carries a 30.5 cps final dividend attached. Back that divvy out and treat as part prepayment of purchase price the metrics look even more compelling on a net purchase price of ~$8.65.
Very rare you get forecast growth like this with strong dividend yield and trading on truly compelling metrics. Impossible to overstate the enormous runway for growth in Australia, (circa 20 years) with currently only a similar number of Glassons stores there as we have here and yet the population is ~ 27m there v 5.3m people here. Glassons Au's growth story is just getting started.
For what its worth I'm quite pleased with how resilient my calculations show the level of imputation credit to be. One of the key variables is the recovery rate of earnings in Hallensteins which is surely at a cyclical low. Quite possible the imputation level will be slightly higher as my forecasts are for a slow recovery in Haldenstein's N.Z. profitability.
Quote from: Basil on Sep 29, 2025, 09:49 AMHallensteins which is surely at a cyclical low. Quite possible the imputation level will be slightly higher as my forecasts are for a slow recovery in Haldenstein's N.Z. profitability.
Is it just a cyclical low, or is it more than that? I think they have issues with appealing to their 18 -30 male target market and their clothing's durability (a marked decline in quality from previous years.) Their online service seems to run hot and cold too.
Quote from: Hectorplains on Sep 29, 2025, 11:29 AMIs it just a cyclical low, or is it more than that? I think they have issues with appealing to their 18 -30 male target market and their clothing's durability (a marked decline in quality from previous years.) Their online service seems to run hot and cold too.
Good question mate. For mine, I think Hallensteins has been the problem child for quite a while. Even pre-covid in 2019 they were talking about difficulties getting product that resonated with customers. file:///C:/Users/user/Downloads/HallensteinGlasson%20Holdings%20Ltd%20Annual%20Report%202019.pdf
Worth noting that Hallensteins division profit that year was $7.2m after tax and was only $3.3m in FY25.
I think management will be working incredibly hard to turn Hallensteins profitability around. Its a 149 year old brand so they're not just going to roll over like an old Labrador dog and play dead, you can be absolutely sure of that.
The NZ clothing retail market is at best a low growth mature market and HLG struggle to maintain market share in it
Market (Stats NZ Apparel) has grown at 3.0% pa over the last 10 years
HLG NZ sales )Hallensteins and Glassons) have grown at 2.5% pa in the same period .... a slight share loss ...from 5.8% to 5.4%
I cant see things changing much over the next few years. Even if there is a huge cyclical uptick in overall retail sales clothing will be a laggard and Hallensteins/Glasson will still find it hard to make any decent market inroads
That's how I see the NZ clothing market.
Online sales are now about $85m
Since FY17 Group sales have nearly doubled but online sales have quadrupled .... pretty good eh
In store sales are up 77% over the same period
Annual Report will show how many Tik Tok and Instagram followers they now have
One other thing with those online sales is that they did the job during lockdown (annual sales >$100m) I'd hazard a guess the retention of those customers has been pretty high ....still buying online or visiting stores .....and probably got quite a few new customers as well.
I see Forbar didn't bother to try and estimate imputation level going forward ? Just wrote N/A in their research report for each of the forecasted years going forward. That's pretty strange ? Not that hard to crunch the numbers and estimate the N.Z. and Aust split on profit going forward, tax thereon and work back to expected imputation level. I'm happy with my calculations earlier today. Expect about 50% imputation credits going forward for the next few years, give or take a few percent. Likely to gradually grind down lower in the years after that.
Just wondering is it possible to give franking credits to Australian addressed shareholders to save more imputation credits for the New Zealanders?
Unfortunately franking credits and imputation credits are not interchangeable and neither country allows a tax credit for company credits in the other's jurisdiction. I understand considerable effort has been made over the years under CER, (closer economic relations) by N.Z. Govt officials to remedy the impasse but its stuck at a federal level in Australia because as they see it, mutual intercountry recognition of franking and imputation tax credits for individual shareholders would cost them too much money. My hope is that Australia at some point reduces its corporate tax rate for larger companies with turnover over $50m, of 30%, smaller companies get a 25% corporate tax rate, (yeah its a weird system), which is presently the third highest of OECD countries. The average OECD corporate tax rate is 24%. The N.Z. company tax rate could do with a reduction too.
Westpac Kelly says — 88c vs the Australian dollar is gone. Are we heading back to where the exchange rate averaged pre GFC which was more like the low to mid 80s?appropriate
Glassons AU profits looking good on translation
If we go down to say 85 cents Australian, converting Glassons Au earnings to $Kiwi means increasing $Kiwi earnings. To my mind banks are about as good at forecasting exchange rates as they are at forecasting house prices, I.e. useless.
Quote from: Basil on Sep 30, 2025, 09:39 AMIf we go down to say 85 cents Australian, converting Glassons Au earnings to $Kiwi means increasing $Kiwi earnings. To my mind banks are about as good at forecasting exchange rates as they are at forecasting house prices, I.e. useless.
Could be NZ$5m plus extra
Quote from: Basil on Sep 29, 2025, 05:51 PMI see Forbar didn't bother to try and estimate imputation level going forward ? Just wrote N/A in their research report for each of the forecasted years going forward. That's pretty strange ? Not that hard to crunch the numbers and estimate the N.Z. and Aust split on profit going forward, tax thereon and work back to expected imputation level. I'm happy with my calculations earlier today. Expect about 50% imputation credits going forward for the next few years, give or take a few percent. Likely to gradually grind down lower in the years after that.
bit weird that. they could do the lazy way - just guess the IC's per share by looking at history, and add it to the forecast declared DPS, to get gross (then maths showing the % imputed).
Historical IC's per share:
FY25:10.6
FY24: 12.0
FY23: 11.2
FY22: 3.4
FY21: 16.5
FY20:15.2
FY19: 17.1
FY18: 17.1
Jarden dont even talk about imputation. They are a bit more bullish than Forbar, but mainly on account of margins. Have to admit Forbar did a pretty good job of forecasting the business in their last few reports (better than Jarden).
One thing I noticed was the declared DPS % of reported NPAT has declined this year. Still bloody good and high at 83.1% but below 5 year average preceeding this year of 88.5% (83.8%, 84.1%, 97.8%, 89.5% 87.3%). Maybe on account of the extra capex this year with the OZ warehouse, wonder if it'll impact 1H FY26 div. Not a biggie as for a good cause but hopefully historical 1H payouts maintained
Curious where Jarden see forecasted EPS and DPS for the next 3 years...sharing is caring :)
Record cash on hand of $58m will easily account for FY26 capex in my opinion.
Winner, different bank has a different view on the exchange rate, there's a big surprise ;)
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/markets/currency/nz-dollar-still-suffering-after-gdp-dip/QZURG7HHTNBN5CZISZBMT7GEYI/
P.S. Halenstein's need to do more to stimulate demand for their products from their target market of young men and they need our help. I reckon fit their stores out with a decent T.V. screen next to the suits on display and have this video playing. I've never seen a better reason to buy a new suit lol
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gC28Bv7r8v0
Should be on retail stocks thread but I'll put here just to highlight how great HLGs stock management really us.
High GM%, by far highest stock turns and the $9.65 GM from every $1 of stock is amazing .... Esp compared to WHS and KMD and MHJ and that's why HLG share price us approaching $10 while other languish where they are with punters hoping it will all come right ..one day
IMG_6241.png
But
Quote from: Basil on Sep 30, 2025, 11:57 AMCurious where Jarden see forecasted EPS and DPS for the next 3 years...sharing is caring :)
Record cash on hand of $58m will easily account for FY26 capex in my opinion.
Winner, different bank has a different view on the exchange rate, there's a big surprise ;)
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/markets/currency/nz-dollar-still-suffering-after-gdp-dip/QZURG7HHTNBN5CZISZBMT7GEYI/
P.S. Halenstein's need to do more to stimulate demand for their products from their target market of young men and they need our help. I reckon fit their stores out with a decent T.V. screen next to the suits on display and have this video playing. I've never seen a better reason to buy a new suit lol
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gC28Bv7r8v0
Sorry missed this, here you go.
FY26/FY27/FY28 respectively shown below
EPS: 78.6, 86.0, 93.8
DPS: 67.0, 77.5, 84.5
despite the forecasts target price only $9.10.... #sandbagging....
yes cash easily can account for capex. But they are a conservative bunch. I assume payout ratios will hold steady going forward but will cross my fingers regardless.
Thanks for doing that exercise Winner. I had been meaning to get around to comparing HLG's stock turn with the others. Gosh, their stock turn is even considerably better than the highly efficient K Mart, that's quite remarkable. And look at that gross profit per $1 of stock held. WOW, that's incredible. Talk about a hugely rewarding and highly efficient business model !
Thanks Fiordland Moose.
That's a very modest price target given HLG's proven and forecast growth rate.
Gosh FY28 divvy 84.5 cps. That's a LOT ! I doubt it'll be that high because as you say, they are very conservative.
MR AI on the company and the share price target difficulties due to the wild swings in monetary policy and the direct to market monetary injections due to zero interest rates..
https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/1846d4bc-73fa-4760-93ac-a4f455750a15
what AI appears to be seeing is that some of these companies were investable back two years ago and some will be investable again possible in 2027..
what is really interesting is that if we had had excess to these tools back in 2022 might would investor have done and i suspect everyone would have made a lot of money and anyone who did is just lucky or a genius and had some luck...IE they made money despite the landscape being a deck of cards stacked against the investor.
I started buying in mid 2016 at $2.70. There was no analyst coverage for many many years, no A.I, just my own analysis and belief this was a really well managed, solid and enduring business trading on compelling metrics. That remains the case today although HLG is arguably even more compelling now. . It used to just be a fabulous dividend story, now it's a strong growth and dividend story still trading on very attractive metrics.
Nice one Waltzing....but as Benjamin Franklin famously said "don't believe everything you read on the internet".
QuoteGross Profit Margin: 59.3% (up from 59.4%)
Quote from: Waltzing on Oct 07, 2025, 09:15 PMMR AI on the company and the share price target difficulties due to the wild swings in monetary policy and the direct to market monetary injections due to zero interest rates..
https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/1846d4bc-73fa-4760-93ac-a4f455750a15
what AI appears to be seeing is that some of these companies were investable back two years ago and some will be investable again possible in 2027..
what is really interesting is that if we had had excess to these tools back in 2022 might would investor have done and i suspect everyone would have made a lot of money and anyone who did is just lucky or a genius and had some luck...IE they made money despite the landscape being a deck of cards stacked against the investor.
Off Topic.
Most of us are mere mortals some people are born with computers for brains and they are a breed of accountant that when the power goes off they wont need computers to produced financials as they can add subtract divide and multiple with pen and paper....
Remember the days when HLG was just an unloved NZ stock. A history of this company deserves a book if there isnt already one and the last chapters are still being written.
The accuracy of the AI documents is never going to be perfect as fragment's get left in the NN with weightings and as one person said recently on CNBC , (its all just some maths tricks)..
Notice in the documents the similar and repeated descriptions and that is in CONCISE mode.
In future we might try for a consolidated mode as previous reports were only several pages long and now it generates in artifact mode a much larger document.
That is some really impressive work Waltzing and a comprehensive report.....for a 'concise' report that is already quite long. I like the fact it also addresses the bear case and risks and doesn't just focus on the positives. Is that where you wanted to get to with your analyses?
Yeah that ability to look at a page of numbers and know which one is wrong.....that is years of training. Sorry about leading with that reply...... ;)
The relatively lower Australian operating profit....do you think they are pushing costs across the Tasman to preserve NZ profits and imputation credits?
My investment case sits just above your conservative case. Do your returns take into account dividend withholding tax? I expect that as Australian earnings grows, we will likely see a reduced imputation credit % which means a higher dividend withholding tax and less cash in our hands.
Nice work and thanks for sharing!
Off Topic.
We asked the AI to research companies performance in light of Policy settings and GDP statistics and also as a back drop investigate the difference in the two QE strategies adapted by reserve banks between 2008 and 2020.
Recently it did an IMPUTATION policy review and got it wrong according to SIR B but that is because it found conflicting documentation..
It then reworked the document.. Its just a machine.. GIGO...
We can ask it to review and see if it smart enough to do the IMPCR but some humans here will have an idea already on that...
NZ retail has gone no where and the really interesting retail is MHJ... most people hate the company but from a GDP statistics perfective its the perfect storm stock..
Dont just analysis the good performers as KMD and MHJ are far more interesting from a what if perspective and are distressed assets along with SKC... and they are all retail...BRISC being particularly interesting and some here have picked it performance perfectly... IE... going know where and under extreme pressure..TRA is retail again with finance tacked on..
No doubt management in these companies learn from each other as those groups will all know each other and meet for drinks now and again.
Ai is really good at auditing software debug reports.... but as for creative new paradigms.. not so...
Quote from: Waltzing on Oct 07, 2025, 09:15 PMMR AI on the company and the share price target difficulties due to the wild swings in monetary policy and the direct to market monetary injections due to zero interest rates..
https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/1846d4bc-73fa-4760-93ac-a4f455750a15
what AI appears to be seeing is that some of these companies were investable back two years ago and some will be investable again possible in 2027..
what is really interesting is that if we had had excess to these tools back in 2022 might would investor have done and i suspect everyone would have made a lot of money and anyone who did is just lucky or a genius and had some luck...IE they made money despite the landscape being a deck of cards stacked against the investor.
It looks pretty good Waltzing. What do you think Basil.?
Quote from: Shareguy on Oct 08, 2025, 09:11 AMIt looks pretty good Waltzing. What do you think Basil.?
These A.I. reports are getting better and well worth reading for a general overview. Thanks for sharing Waltzing. Contains some errors that being time poor at the moment doesn't allow me to drill down into but highlights a lot of the factors investors need to consider. A.I. is no substitute for doing your own research though.
We now have 3 analysts covering HLG.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HALLENSTEIN-GLASSON-HOLDI-6495564/finances/
Its well worth noting that average analyst forecasts for the next 3 years align well with the bull case outlined in that A.I. report which suggests a $14-15 price target 3 years hence is reasonable as well as high (8.3% and growing gross yield), along the way. Average analyst forecasts are as follows (DPS in brackets is grossed up for estimated 50% imputation credits)
FY26 FY27 FY28
EPS 77 85 93
DPS 66(77) 75(87) 82(95)
Sales 505 536 564
Quote from: Ferg on Oct 08, 2025, 08:40 AMThe relatively lower Australian operating profit....do you think they are pushing costs across the Tasman to preserve NZ profits and imputation credits?
They're doing that as much as they can and that came straight from the horses mouth.
At some point we will run them through again but not today...Usually take 2 or 3 goes for AI to check its own work..we have urgent work todo as a big piece of software called the Software Machine has arrrives and once that runs AI inside itself we wont need a human to load up and push the enter key...
It was a solid first effort mate and that ARG A.I. report you emailed me the other day was also very good.
least that can be done for the life time of service to the business community put in my many accountants who have been required to work in an ever increasing compliance code that culminated in the Labour Governments Spanish inquisition into where the rich were hiding there jewels... imagine what could be coming in the future...
anyway there is a lot people out there moving today on the Main routes to Port of Tauranga today and the roads are barely coping.
We should get AI to look at shipping loadings into the country...
HLG - AI audit of statistic, step 1.
https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/420c2cf4-0b0e-492e-aee7-0fa32981340c
It appears that AI can see everything on the internet now and AI is watching... NOTE wellington IT is watching..
Ai has read and noted the comments and reviewed it documents...
https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/a2872727-c4c2-4c08-b25a-dad3c3a16669
It has audited its original document.
Well really whats a few percent points here and there when the whole country is always a few percentage point out here and there from time to time.. season to season....
QuoteIt appears that AI can see everything on the internet now and AI is watching... NOTE wellington IT is watching..
Ai has read and noted the comments and reviewed it documents...
https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/a2872727-c4c2-4c08-b25a-dad3c3a16669
It has audited its original document.
Zhis eez all very vell Valtzing man. Yes you have received a near perfect zummary of ze financial advancement of HLG vrom your AI bumker. Kudos vor zhat, but....You ztill have to read it. Zo vhy not just read ze annual report, vhich eez where zhis eenvormation may be vound anyway?
Zhat vay, you ztill get your eenvormation. But you do not have a 'cropping varmer' een La Paz Mexico (in ze zame vater catchment of ze zite of ze AI datacentre zhat gave you zhis report), who hates you.
RB
Off TOPIC - but related to financial reporting.
The solution to data information has been available since the mid 1960's with the creation of SIMULA and the later definition of XML..
Its simple publish the information in XML and the comparison if financial would be simple and that has been available for since when?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/XML
Might see HLG at 10 bucks next week
That be some duly deserved milestone
That $10 share price must be close now
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HALLENSTEIN-GLASSON-HOLDI-6495564/
Based on average of 3 analysts expectations at $9.97 HLG trades of on a price earnings ratio of:-
12.9 for FY26
11.7 for FY27
10.8 for FY28
Still very reasonable metrics in my opinion for the quality of this company, its management, its proven growth record and the huge opportunity in the decades ahead with Glassons Australia.
Quote from: Basil on Oct 30, 2025, 05:40 PMhttps://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HALLENSTEIN-GLASSON-HOLDI-6495564/
Based on average of 3 analysts expectations at $9.97 HLG trades of on a price earnings ratio of:-
12.9 for FY26
11.7 for FY27
10.8 for FY28
Still very reasonable metrics in my opinion for the quality of this company, its management, its proven growth record and the huge opportunity in the decades ahead with Glassons Australia.
I'm not sure about that. Looks like a bubble forming on low trading by FOMO's. Any slip in delivery could lead to quite a negative adjustment. At close to $10 per share the yield isn't commensurate with the risk. Buyers beware, would be my instinct.
Disc. Cashed up.
Might put a buy at $10.05 in the morning before the open ....that'll get the share price over 10 bucks
I can then skite that I made HL.g go over 10 bucks
Quote from: Basil on Oct 08, 2025, 12:48 PM.. FY26 FY27 FY28
EPS 77 85 93
DPS 66(77) 75(87) 82(95)
Sales 505 536 564
I posted this a little while back. The DPS number in brackets assumes 50% imputation credits so is the gross dividend number
Gross estimated yield @$10 for the years ahead is as follows
FY26 7.7%
FY27 8.7%
FY28 9.5%
On top of those attractive yields those purchasing soon will get the 30.5 cps final divvy for FY25 in December and likely another similar sized interim FY26 divvy shortly thereafter in April 2026.
I think HLG makes a compelling case for itself both as a dividend hounds stock and also on the price earnings multiple. A classic GARP stock.
Sales year to date for the first 7 weeks of FY26 were recently reported as up 12.9% and arguably we're right at the bottom of the retail cycle with green shoots emerging https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/green-shoots-are-emerging-anzs-sharon-zollner-says-as-business-confidence-jumps-to-eight-month-high/HRV7NFWY5JCMLDG46ARHZOGBME/.
A share price of approx. $15, 3 years hence, (maybe sooner if there's a takeover offer, but I hope there isn't), from now would not surprise me in the slightest. Looking forward to the AGM in December and a further trading update. Annual report is due out any day now..
Quote from: Basil on Oct 30, 2025, 06:15 PMA share price of approx. $15, 3 years hence, (maybe sooner if there's a takeover offer, but I hope there isn't), from now would not surprise me in the slightest.
{snip}
Annual report is due out any day now..
I see today's high was $9.99....so close to $10 which is likely a mental hurdle for some.
I think they released their annual report the other day:
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/459538
Edit: I take that back sorry.....it was just the financials.....
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/459538/attachment/453038/459538-453038.pdf
As at today, HLG and TRA together account for 42% of my portfolio value. (They also provide a decent slice of my annual dividend income.)
In theory, I should sell some and diversify a bit more, but where else can I achieve the ongoing lift in income and capital growth that are almost guaranteed by these two companies?
I think I'll wait for a year or two for some of my other shares to do some heavy lifting to shift the percentages. Looking at you HGH, SPK, PEB, SUM and XRO.
Quote from: Pierre on Oct 30, 2025, 09:30 PMAs at today, HLG and TRA together account for 42% of my portfolio value. (They also provide a decent slice of my annual dividend income.)
In theory, I should sell some and diversify a bit more, but where else can I achieve the ongoing lift in income and capital growth that are almost guaranteed by these two companies?
TRA and HLG set the bar bloody high that's for sure. ~ 35% for me, combined. I can't find anything in the market that I like as much as those two which makes me want to go even higher. The conservative accountant in me thinks 35% is too much but the greedy dividend hound in me thinks its not enough and grow a pair of balls will ya and take the combined holding up to 50% immediately. I'm not sure which side of my brain is correct. I might split the difference and join you on 42% portfolio allocation lol
Annual Report is out. https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/461702/attachment/455526/461702-455526.pdf
Looks like there's no talk of a replacement group CEO. Board may be thinking what's the point as each division has its own CEO and we don't need too many cooks in the kitchen. Why not save the ~ $1m cost instead ? Market seems to think its a good idea too with the share price up quite significantly since Chris Kinraid left.
How prescient was that? You called it yesterday Basil.
Has HLG ever done this before? I can't recall them previously issuing share performance rights.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/461713
Given they haven't issued any new shares in the 15 years of data I have, would they buy on market to satisfy this? Or would they issue new shares? Small numbers I know but I'm curious if this is a shift in methods....
It does seem to be a shift in remuneration methodology and also a new way to try and encourage long term earnings growth in Glassons N.Z. and Hallensteins. I like that the issue of these shares is tied to CAGR in EPS over the three year period. That's how all share rights performance targets should be set.
I don't know Ferg, but I suspect they will buy the shares on market in 2028 given the small number required. A $374,000 @ $10 per share performance rights issue at the current price is not a lot over three years for 2 divisional CEO's and maybe the board think this is a good way to retain team leaders,. drive EPS growth and save the ~ $1m a year on a group CEO ? Makes good common sense to me if its kept to a sensible level like this and the shares are bought on market in due course. I see James Glasson's bought just under 300,000 shares from Tim Glasson in the last financial year and now has just over 800,000 shares so he's motivated too..
Thankfully the company is not in the business of playing chess..... ;D
HLG-p15 - Copy.JPG
But seriously, a good company with good growth & dividends.
HLG-EPS-2025 - Copy.JPG
Quote from: Ferg on Oct 31, 2025, 10:26 AMBut seriously, a good company with good growth & dividends.
I couldn't agree more and run very conservatively too with no debt.
EPS 2020 44.6 cps EPS 2025 69.2 cps, (normalized for the unusually high tax rate this year with an extra $1.8m prior period tax adjustment, worth 3.0 cps, that the company has not been forthcoming on providing an colour on) gives a 5 year CAGR in EPS of 9.18% over that really tumultuous 5 year period.
With the HUGE runway for growth with Glassons Au I think they can do that going forward too for the foreseeable future so no growth Ben Graham 8.5 PE + 1 PE extra for each 1 % they can grow EPS = 9 = they screen as deep value up to a forward PE of 17.5 in my GARP valuation criteria. Average FY26 EPS by analysts = 77.18 cps x 17.5 = $13.50. I think I need to get some more because honestly I'd rather buy more of a very high quality company that screens well within my GARP valuation formula than take a risk on other shares that appear cheaper but are not performing or for that matter more expensive tech that might blow up in your face..
The forward PE projections are by their nature, extrapolative. They assume what has gone before will go on into the future. I can understand why many put a lot of faith in HLG's management - I am a fan myself - but I have cashed up for a number of reasons.
The clothing industry is notoriously fickle. HLG NZ is a busted flush (along with the NZ economy) and I don't see much growth, if any coming here. And there is such a thing as brand fatigue - one just cannot assume that HLG AUS will continue to remain in favour. There have been bigger clothing brands than HLG that have fallen by the wayside. I just wouldn't pay $10 per share on a clothing retailer no matter how good the back of an envelope calculations are. As for $15 per share...really?
It's a separate topic, but the global macroeconomic environment is not looking good. THE US economy is in dire straits - Govt shutdown, inflationary pressure, rising unemployment, crippling debt servicing costs. In addition there is whispers of another banking failure. The US domino is ready to fall, and everyone knows what that means. I have cashed up HLG and a few others and kept the remaining in defensive stocks like GNE, IFT, SPK and FSF. And a couple of long shots like PEB and TRU. IMO this is not a time to hold a lot in retailing, particularly fashion. A 5% holding at best.
Best of luck to holders, but remember that the low volume trading that has produced the current bubble can be disastrous if shareholders need to exit quickly. Stocks like HLG will take a big hit if there is a scramble for the exits.
The SP has hit $10.
I bought more today including some at $10. They're only just getting started with Glassons Au. There's room for 200 stores over there in the decades ahead, presently only 40. Glassons is a young cool brand there and has a proven growth history of growing sales and eps there at circa 20% CAGR
$15 a real chance 3 years hence. 3 years compound eps growth at low double digits gets you there by itself let alone the shares being prsently underpriced for the proven growth rate.
The metrics are compelling. My #1 investment position. Turners a very close second.
I seem to remember a similar enthusiasm for HGH's foray into Australia.
HLg are of course a different beast but compelling metrics don't account for much if the wider macroeconomic environment, or indeed consumer sentiment, turns. Not saying this will happen, but there's an unacceptable risk of substantial capital loss if it does. This very much looks to me like the first half of a buy high / sell low story.
A VERY different company. HLG is N.Z's oldest listed company. Haldenstein's traces its roots back over 150 years and Glassons over 100 years. Its not that hard to see the opportunity but there will always be naysayers and there always has been no shortage of them since I first bought at $2.70 in 2016. Its nearly quadrupled since then.
Just to briefly recap, HLG has CARG in EPS for the last 5 brutal years in retail of 9.2%. Is it really that hard to imagine that retail spending will pick up as the economy on both sides of the Tasman recovers ? Surely even "Blind Freddy" can foresee that.
Glassons Au sales have grown from circa $40m in 2017 more than 6 times to over $250m in FY25 and it still has very very low store penetration in Australia 40 there and 35 here and they have a population of 27m and we have 5.3m. The same level of store penetration in Aust with Glassons as here would allow them 178 stores so there's plenty of room to grow.
If you back out the pending dividend of 30.5 cps people buying at $10 are paying just 11.4 times next years (FY27) average analyst earnings. If that's too expensive for some people good luck finding genuine growth companies that are better managed on cheaper metrics.
The secret is in a couple of charts a broker puts
One clearly shows a growing number of stores (esp Glassons AU) but more importantly the average sales per store is increasing as well
That's cool
Interesting presentation from Barramundi. One image leapt off the page at me. The average ASX200 stock is trading at a PEG (price earnings to growth ratio) of 3.2 times. https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/461765/attachment/455528/461765-455528.pdf
Put that same pricing on HLG and it would be trading at a PE of 3.2 x 9.2% proven growth rate = PE of 29.
The real secret with HLG is its a dirt cheap Australian growth story and at present growth rates Australian sales will be approx. double N.Z. sales within 5 years. That's right, the no / slow growth N.Z. side of operations both Glassons and Haldenstein's will only be approx. one third of group turnover. Already in FY25 Glassons Au sales are ~54% of group turnover.
Quote from: Basil on Oct 31, 2025, 01:32 PMA VERY different company. HLG is N.Z's oldest listed company. Haldenstein's traces its roots back over 150 years and Glassons over 100 years. Its not that hard to see the opportunity but there will always be naysayers and there always has been no shortage of them since I first bought at $2.70 in 2016. Its nearly quadrupled since then.
Just to briefly recap, HLG has CARG in EPS for the last 5 brutal years in retail of 9.2%. Is it really that hard to imagine that retail spending will pick up as the economy on both sides of the Tasman recovers ? Surely even "Blind Freddy" can foresee that.
Glassons Au sales have grown from circa $40m in 2017 more than 6 times to over $250m in FY25 and it still has very very low store penetration in Australia 40 there and 35 here and they have a population of 27m and we have 5.3m. The same level of store penetration in Aust with Glassons as here would allow them 178 stores so there's plenty of room to grow.
If you back out the pending dividend of 30.5 cps people buying at $10 are paying just 11.4 times next years (FY27) average analyst earnings. If that's too expensive for some people good luck finding genuine growth companies that are better managed on cheaper metrics.
Blind Freddy indeed. The real economy in the US is in a technical recession, as is NZ. And contrary to what people may think, Australia is in a period of low growth and the real economy - how the average person is coping - isn't actually that flash. In these periods, retail just isn't the place to store your capital. If people think the growth that HLG has enjoyed can be confidently projected 2-3 years from now, then they've got better eyes than Superman. And remember - those 2-3 years are Trump years. His policies will face a day of reckoning very soon, whether he fires the Government statistician or not!
Glassons have 722,000 followers on Instagram
An
Has a pretty high engagement score as well
Lots of customers amongst that lot
Quote from: LoungeLizard on Oct 31, 2025, 02:11 PMBlind Freddy indeed. The real economy in the US is in a technical recession, as is NZ. And contrary to what people may think, Australia is in a period of low growth and the real economy - how the average person is coping - isn't actually that flash. In these periods, retail just isn't the place to store your capital. If people think the growth that HLG has enjoyed can be confidently projected 2-3 years from now, then they've got better eyes than Superman. And remember - those 2-3 years are Trump years. His policies will face a day of reckoning very soon, whether he fires the Government statistician or not!
Glassons Au sales CAGR since FY17 is 25.81%. Glassons Au 5 year EPS CAGR is 21%. Most of those years were SUPER tough for retail. Yes N.Z operations are basically no growth over the last 10 years but I'm not sure how much more evidence you need that Glassons Au is the growth engine for this company ?
I doubt all the young 13-30 young women in Australia who buy Glassons gear are paying much attention to what the Chump says or does and probably care even less. A heads-up. What they care about is looking cool while peacocking or if already paired up, looking cool with their partner and friends while having fun and making good social connections. Glassons Au is growing strongly and has been growing strongly for the last 8 years. Year to date sales are up 12.9% too. I'm looking forward to the trading update at the 10 December annual meeting.
Can you please list all the companies that you can think of that have a similar track record of EPS growth, (last 5 years 9.2% EPS CAGR) that trade on a current year forward PE of 12.6 ? Are there any ?
Plenty of big race meetings in Oz at the moment ....they say more and more young people are attending and giving it bit of a party atmosphere
No doubt new dresses from Glassons are popular
Quote from: Basil on Oct 31, 2025, 04:25 PMGlassons Au sales CAGR since FY17 is 25.81%. Glassons Au 5 year EPS CAGR is 21%. Most of those years were SUPER tough for retail. Yes N.Z operations are basically no growth over the last 10 years but I'm not sure how much more evidence you need that Glassons Au is the growth engine for this company ?
I doubt all the young 13-30 young women in Australia who buy Glassons gear are paying much attention to what the Chump says or does and probably care even less. A heads-up. What they care about is looking cool while peacocking or if already paired up, looking cool with their partner and friends while having fun and making good social connections. Glassons Au is growing strongly and has been growing strongly for the last 8 years. Year to date sales are up 12.9% too. I'm looking forward to the trading update at the 10 December annual meeting.
Can you please list all the companies that you can think of that have a similar track record of EPS growth, (last 5 years 9.2% EPS CAGR) that trade on a current year forward PE of 12.6 ? Are there any ?
You're rather missing my point. I'm not disputing HLG's track record, however good that might be. There's an element of not seeing the wood for the trees here, or rather seeing only one tree. We've been down this road before when PE analysis of HGH seemed to prove that its future was assured. It wasn't. Macroeconomics trumps the fundamentals of any business. My conviction is that this is not a good time to be investing in retail, certainly not at the price that HLG are demanding. Neither of us can prove to any degree of certainty what the future holds, but my bet, is that we are on the verge of a global downturn precipitated by a US crash. If one is to buy NZ stocks right now - and I am not - defensive stocks in essential services are the way to go. Let's re-convene in 6-12 months and see whose right.
With respect, I think its you that's missing the point. Retail in N.Z. has already been in a multi year recession since Covid and things have been far from rosy in Australia too. This company has grown well despite a deep recession for years. The latest economic data is showing green shoots here. Its pure speculation, (I'm not speculating on that) if / when the US might go into a recession and you're drawing an even longer bow suggesting this would impact the retail spending of 13-30 year old's in Australia / New Zealand who have already been hamstrung for years. As for defensive's, I already have quite a few GNE. One thing I agree with you on, some parts of the US market are trading on very stretched metrics. I have no interest whatsoever in taking any position in a NASDAQ ETF or fund at the current level.
Quote from: Basil on Oct 31, 2025, 05:29 PMWith respect, I think its you that's missing the point. Retail in N.Z. has already been in a multi year recession since Covid and things have been far from rosy in Australia too. This company has grown well despite a deep recession for years. The latest economic data is showing green shoots here. Its pure speculation, (I'm not speculating on that) if / when the US might go into a recession and you're drawing an even longer bow suggesting this would impact the retail spending of 13-30 year old's in Australia / New Zealand who have already been hamstrung for years. As for defensive's, I already have quite a few GNE. One thing I agree with you on, some parts of the US market are trading on very stretched metrics. I have no interest whatsoever in taking any position in a NASDAQ ETF or fund at the current level.
You may well be right. Or not. Time will tell.
Quote from: Basil on Oct 31, 2025, 02:05 PMInteresting presentation from Barramundi. One image leapt off the page at me. The average ASX200 stock is trading at a PEG (price earnings to growth ratio) of 3.2 times.
...
Apparently the 12 month forward weighted PE for the New Zealand market is currently 27.1x, +44% above the long run average.
Jeez HLG is totally underpriced eh
Quote from: Greekwatchdog on Sep 29, 2025, 07:10 AMFor Bar update
Hallenstein Glassons (HLG) reported a solid FY25 result, with profit before tax (PBT) of NZ$58.4m, +12% ahead of FY24 and at the top end of its guidance range. HLG did an admirable job of defending profitability in its NZ businesses while continuing to grow Glassons Australia. Trading through the first seven weeks of FY26 was also strong, with +13% group sales growth. There was no update on CEO succession, with ex-CEO Chris Kinraid having left the business in early September 2025. We continue to view the risk–reward as attractive, with the business: (1) in a strong cash position (NZ$58m net cash); (2) trading on a one-year forward PE of c.11x; (3) expected to deliver solid earnings growth (12% FY25 to FY28E EPS CAGR); and (4) paying a partially imputed c.7.4% FY26E cash dividend. OUTPERFORM.
What's changed?
Earnings: Revised our FY26 to FY28 EPS estimates by +4%/+4%/+5% respectively
Target price: Increased +3% to NZ$11.10.
Another record FY25 result
HLG reported its second consecutive record PBT result of NZ$58.4m in FY25, which is impressive in light of the challenging operating backdrop, particularly in NZ. Glassons Australia continues to be the primary growth driver, with sales up +15% on the prior year, driving a +16% increase in PBT to NZ$34.2m. Glassons NZ also grew PBT +27% to NZ$19.2m, driven by a +2% increase in sales and c.+120bp of gross margin expansion. This was partially offset by the Hallenstein Brothers business, where PBT fell -36% to NZ$4.8m due to broadly flat sales but -200bp of gross margin contraction versus the prior year.
Positioned for growth in Australia
HLG is well positioned to further its growth aspirations in Australia, with NZ$58m of net cash on its balance sheet and the completion of its purpose-built warehouse in 2H26. Glassons Australia has gone from being broadly breakeven in FY17 to c.57% of group earnings in FY25. We forecast an FY25 to FY28E EBITDA CAGR of c.15%, underpinned by modest store openings (~two per year) and solid sales per store growth CAGR of c.6% as the business continues to take market share.
Strong start to FY26 but lots of trades to make
Sales grew +13% in the first seven weeks of FY26. HLG cautioned not to treat this as indicative of year-ahead performance, given key Black Friday and Christmas trading periods are still ahead of it. The strong start to the year continues to be driven by Australia, where the consumer has been more robust but also where Glassons Australia has increased its market share by a factor of almost four times over the last decade. A trading update will be provided at HLG's annual shareholder meeting in December 2025
Buying quality; OUTPERFORM
HLG is trading on a one-year forward PE of c.11x, in line with its history but below its apparel retail peers. We continue to view the risk–reward as attractive in light of forecast EPS growth, net cash position, and its strong dividend yield. Brand performance is below.
Glassons Australia—sales up +15.3% on the year prior to NZ$252m. Gross margin down -5bp to 61.5%. PBT of NZ$34.2m, up +16% on the prior year. Two new stores opened in the year (Sunshine Coast, Harbour Town Adelaide). HLG is currently working on a new purpose-built warehouse expected to be ready in 2H26.
Glassons NZ—sales up +1.7% on the year prior to NZ$112m. Gross margin up +120bp to 56.5%. PBT of NZ$19.2m, up +27% on the prior year. Two new stores in FY26 (Manawa Bay and Frankton, Queenstown), and the Timaru store closed in August 2024.
Hallenstein Brothers—sales flat on the year prior at NZ$107m. Gross margin down -200bp to 57.2%. PBT of NZ$4.8m, down -36% on the prior year. One new store at Manawa Bay, plus a new concept design store rolled out in Silverdale, Auckland.
Earnings changes
We increase our FY26 to FY28 EPS estimates by +4%/+4%/+5% respectively. This is largely driven by upgrades to our Glassons NZ estimates at both the sales and gross margin line. Our PBT estimates increase +8%/+8%/+9%, slightly higher than our NPAT estimates, with a higher effective tax assumption being the key difference. We estimate FY26 capex of NZ$24m, including the estimated NZ$5m warehouse costs for Glassons Australia.
2025 2026 2027 2028
EPS* (NZc) 66.2 78.2 86.3 92.4
DPS (NZc) 55.0 66.5 73.5 78.5
Gosh, it occurs to me Forbar are forecasting 18% EPS growth in FY26. That's deeply impressive. Their fair value call of $11.10 looks very conservative to me. Highest analyst target is $11.50.
Quote from: LoungeLizard on Oct 31, 2025, 11:30 AMI just wouldn't pay $10 per share on a clothing retailer no matter how good the back of an envelope calculations are. As for $15 per share...really?
I'm curious what the face value of the share has got to do with whether HLG is a good buy? Presumably you know the market cap is what really matters.
Quote from: Dolcile on Nov 02, 2025, 08:10 AMI'm curious what the face value of the share has got to do with whether HLG is a good buy? Presumably you know the market cap is what really matters.
No, I didn't know that. Briscoe's - a similarly well-run retail business - has twice the market cap of HLG and its SP is 40% less.
The SP is a curious mix of where a business is now , where it could be in the future and the markets perception of those two things. Right now there's a bandwagon feel to HLG and because of the low volume it doesn't take too many trades to move the dial quite radically (in both directions). That's part of the reason - the market has got carried away - why instinctively, HLG doesn't feel right at these levels. The macroeconomic backdrop is another - my feeing is that the US is building up to a big correction. I'm a cautious investor by nature - capital preservation is key. I'm sitting out of the NZ market for a while, apart from a few long term, defensive stocks. Those stocks can ride the waves better than companies like HLG, if the weather turns foul.
But I could be wrong, as can anyone. I will be the first to congratulate holders if/when HLG hit $15. And the first to commiserate if/when it hits $7.
Good case study for why HLG should do a 5 for 1 share split. In some retail investors minds, HLG would be much better value at $2 and trading volumes would quintuple.
Retail.
............Share price.........PE........Yield
BGP.......$5.40..............21,21......3.70%
HLG.......$9.85..............14.89.......5.18%
LOV.......$36.24.............46.39......2.12%
MHJ......40 cents...........41.67........nil
UNI.......$8.86................29.14......4.35%
And rightly at the bottom.
WHS........80.5 cents......[-100.63] ...nil
HLG still looks good to me.
Quote from: lorraina on Nov 02, 2025, 10:36 AMRetail.
............Share price.........PE........Yield
BGP.......$5.40..............21,21......3.70%
HLG.......$9.85..............14.89.......5.18%
LOV.......$36.24.............46.39......2.12%
MHJ......40 cents...........41.67........nil
UNI.......$8.86................29.14......4.35%
And rightly at the bottom.
WHS........80.5 cents......[-100.63] ...nil
HLG still looks good to me.
To be fair, HlG's yield is a little higher than that but regardless, there's quite a few defensive infrastructure stocks - GNE, SPK - that offer a greater yield and greater security of capital (particularly now that Spark are in recovery mode).
Diversity is key in these times - having some exposure to retail is fine - but in no way would I make HLG my number one stock.
7.7%, 8.7% and 9.5% gross yields according to Forbar and my assumption of 50% imputation level for the next 3 years. Additionally you get 30 5 cps final divvy for FY25 on 12 December.
Quote from: Basil on Nov 02, 2025, 02:44 PM7.7%, 8.7% and 9.5% gross yields according to Forbar and my assumption of 50% imputation level for the next 3 years. Additionally you get 30 5 cps final divvy for FY25 on 12 December.
The SP may get a push from dividend chasers, but after that I'd stay close to the exit if I was you, Basil.
And surely we all know by now that analysts predictions are no better than Mystic Meg's?
I was my own analyst on this for many, many years, long before there was any analyst coverage.
I have my own way of valuing stocks and this screens as deep value up to a spot price today at $13.50.
HLG has built an unrivalled flawless history of high dividend payments for more than 20 years.
James Glasson has done a fabulous job growing Glassons Au in the last 8 years and I have the upmost confidence he will continue doing a superb job in the years ahead as well as providing valuable mentoring to N.Z management
I want to hold superbly managed high quality companies that pay me a high and growing income in my retirement years and am very content to hold HLG long term. Same for Turners.
We all have our own process of evaluating the intrinsic worth of a business. Not all those process's come up with the same result. That's the game. No one is right all of the time.
Quoting analysts predictions when they suit and rubbishing them when they don't, seems to be common. Best to ignore them entirely.
My take for what it's worth is that they are very dependent on their success on one man and accidents can happen and it is for that reason that we diversify our investments
I think you have been very astute in your HLG investment thus far but there comes a time to take a conservative stance and reduce your risk
Key man risk is something all astute investors take into account. James Glasson looks to me to be in very good health. His father Tim still serves on the board and has a huge vested interest in ensuring the company performs well with his 18% stake.
The only thing I worry about with HLG is the chance of a takeover. Sure there's the sugar rush of a huge one off gain but I would much prefer the dividends and growth in them and the growth in the share price over the long run. HLG was $2.70 nine years ago. I think it could more than triple again over the next decade.
When TA and FA both say BUY and the FA is compelling that's when the really serious money is made for those that are brave enough to invest a decent sized portfolio allocation.
Quote from: Basil on Nov 02, 2025, 05:02 PMKey man risk is something all astute investors take into account. James Glasson looks to me to be in very good health. His father Tim still serves on the board and has a huge vested interest in ensuring the company performs well with his 18% stake.
The only thing I worry about with HLG is the chance of a takeover. Sure there's the sugar rush of a huge one off gain but I would much prefer the dividends and growth in them and the growth in the share price over the long run. HLG was $2.70 nine years ago. I think it could more than triple again over the next decade.
When TA and FA both say BUY and the FA is compelling that's when the really serious money is for those that are brave enough to invest a decent sized portfolio allocation.
And Chair Warren Bell is a great asset. Been Chair for yonks and continues to give the company leadership, foresight and stability that many companies lack.
Shame on NZSA on sayin* he's too long in the tooth and wanted him removed last year.
Warren a key component of the HLG DNA
I couldn't agree more Winner. Pretty silly box ticking exercise and counterproductive position taken by the NZSA at the last last AGM and I told Oliver Mauder as much in no uncertain terms. Warren and the other highly experienced directors on the board like Tim Glasson are part of the secret sauce that makes this company really special and perform so extraordinary well. I'm hoping to get the time to travel down for the AGM this year.
Quote from: LoungeLizard on Nov 02, 2025, 04:13 PMWe all have our own process of evaluating the intrinsic worth of a business. Not all those process's come up with the same result. That's the game. No one is right all of the time.
Quoting analysts predictions when they suit and rubbishing them when they don't, seems to be common. Best to ignore them entirely.
I like this company, and I have a small investment in HLG. I kept it small as in an economic downturn cars and electricity are essential while new clothes may not be.
QuoteI like this company, and I have a small investment in HLG. I kept it small as in an economic downturn cars and electricity are essential while new clothes may not be.
Vell I vas taught at zchool, ze 3 essentials vor life vere: vood, clothing and zhelter.
Unless you are zuggesting zhat vhat Hallenstein Glasson zell eez not really 'clothing' een ze essential sense (an argument vhich may carry zome weight).
RB
Quote from: Red Baron on Nov 03, 2025, 11:25 AMVell I vas taught at zchool, ze 3 essentials vor life vere: vood, clothing and zhelter.
Unless you are zuggesting zhat vhat Hallenstein Glasson zell eez not really 'clothing' een ze essential sense (an argument vhich may carry zome weight).
RB
No, while clothing is essential new clothing may not be.
We've endured nearly 6 years of atrocious retail conditions since Covid hit. I'm hopeful the worst is behind us.
This makes good sense to me;
The Group leases retail stores under non-cancellable operating leases expiring within one to six years. There
is a small portion of lease contracts which contain renewal rights. In considering the lease term for these
contracts, the Group has determined that rights of renewals are not reasonably certain to be exercised due
to the nature and location of the stores and the changing retail environment. It is the Group's strategy to
renegotiate the terms of all leases at their expiry instead of exercising renewal rights. This agile strategy is
enabled by having stores relatively small in size and not highly customised, and therefore relatively straight
forward to move locations. In addition, with the current retail market uncertainty the Group needs to
maintain a degree of flexibility.
Quote from: lorraina on Nov 04, 2025, 11:11 AMThis makes good sense to me;
The Group leases retail stores under non-cancellable operating leases expiring within one to six years. There
is a small portion of lease contracts which contain renewal rights. In considering the lease term for these
contracts, the Group has determined that rights of renewals are not reasonably certain to be exercised due
to the nature and location of the stores and the changing retail environment. It is the Group's strategy to
renegotiate the terms of all leases at their expiry instead of exercising renewal rights. This agile strategy is
enabled by having stores relatively small in size and not highly customised, and therefore relatively straight
forward to move locations. In addition, with the current retail market uncertainty the Group needs to
maintain a degree of flexibility.
It does make good sense, given the acknowledged "current retail market uncertainty." Seems like it isn't just Hallensteins investors needing to keep one eye on the exits, but maybe Hallensteins itself ;)
The dynamics of Malls seems to change every few years.
In Christchurch Northlands Mall lost Pak'n Save,while The Palms saw K Mart move out,meaning lower foot traffic..
"This agile strategy is
enabled by having stores relatively small in size and not highly customised, and therefore relatively straight
forward to move locations."
Very smart operators... smarts is what you get when you've been in business for more than 100 years.
Hi Lorraina, if you don't mind, where are you getting this information from - is it the annual report?
In the printed annual report notes page 34 4.1 Leases
In the link below page 36.
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/461702/attachment/455526/461702-455526.pdf
HLG closed over $10
On its way to $15 now
HLG online sales make up 18% of total sales and they recognise the growing importance of keeping up with how customer experiences are changing in this digital / AI world.
Glad they noted in last announcement " Looking ahead, we remain committed to adopting new technology and optimising our digital platforms to ensure an industry-leading experience across desktop, mobile, and in-store touchpoints."
I found this an interesting article by Boston Consulting.
When Brands Meet AI Bots: Customer Experience in the Era of Agents
Hope they mention AI and agents and bots at the ASM. That'll get punters talking.
https://www.bcg.com/publications/2025/when-brands-meet-ai-bots-cx-in-the-era-of-agents
New Australian distribution warehouse is being kitted out with robotic pick technology.
Since 2019 online sales have grown 91% while instore sales have grown by 54%
Covid gave online a big boost but it seems that they retained a lot of the good that came out of that
Likely to see online grow further and become an even bigger part of the business
Quote from: Basil on Nov 08, 2025, 08:54 AMNew Australian distribution warehouse is being kitted out with robotic pick technology.
Cool
Robots and great online activity all good
So those old fuddy directors who are past it according to NZSA seemed pretty switched on.
Quote from: winner (n) on Nov 08, 2025, 10:11 AMSince 2019 online sales have grown 91% while instore sales have grown by 54%
Covid gave online a big boost but it seems that they retained a lot of the good that came out of that
Likely to see online grow further and become an even bigger part of the business
With the greater and increasing portion of their total sales and profit coming from Australia the change in the AU/NZ exchange rate will surely be working in HLG's favour. AUD100 is worth NZ115 today.
Quote from: Pierre on Nov 08, 2025, 10:30 AMWith the greater and increasing portion of their total sales and profit coming from Australia the change in the AU/NZ exchange rate will surely be working in HLG's favour. AUD100 is worth NZ115 today.
A few months ago the xrate was 107 so 7% difference
As you say thats could be a big gain on those Aussie profits
Quote from: Pierre on Nov 08, 2025, 10:30 AMWith the greater and increasing portion of their total sales and profit coming from Australia the change in the AU/NZ exchange rate will surely be working in HLG's favour. AUD100 is worth NZ115 today.
Good point. For me the most interesting insight of recent days was the Barramundi annual meeting wherein the presentation highlighted that the average ASX stock is trading on a PEG (price earnings to growth rate) ratio of 3.3 and Barramundi trumpeting how their average PEG ratio across their portfolio is 2.3, obviously something they are proud of and trying to make they case they are getting good value for their growth stocks.
HLG been growing EPS for the last 5 years at an average CAGR of 9.2% so Barramundi would be happy paying a PE of 2.3 x 9.2 = 21 and make the case they are getting good value for the growth. The ASX200 average is 3.3 so if HLG which is mainly an Australian company now were priced on that average market metric it would be on a forward PE of 3.3 x 9.2 = 30.
HLG trades on an FY26 PE of 13.1 and only 11.9 times FY27 EPS (average of 3 analysts earnings forecasts). (Additionally there's a 30.5 cps divvy due next month). This really shows what a dirt cheap Australasian growth company it is. Add in the zero debt, strong balance sheet with ~ $1 cash, vastly experienced management and huge runway for growth in Australia and you can see why its my #1 listed investment position.
My contention is simply this. Through HLG you are getting Glassons Au growth at a genuine bargain price.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HALLENSTEIN-GLASSON-HOLDI-6495564/finances/
Another good piece from Boston Consulting
I'm sure Glassons people in particular are on top of these changes. Just look at the number of Instagram and TikTok followers they have... ...that's why they are growing so strongly.
Reinforces some of the anecdotes that Basil relates about his young family members.
Link below but summary -
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Women's Wear Daily and Boston Consulting Group recently set out to explore what really matters to young consumers, and how leading brands are adapting to win over Fashion's Next Gen.
Members of Gen Z and Gen Alpha—consumers aged 28 and under—are projected to account for 40% of the US fashion market over the next decade, but few apparel brands have cracked the code for how to win their business.
But a
Because Fashion's Next Gen follows different rules than prior generations did, brands need to shift from the traditional funnel to a self-reinforcing flywheel in a highly fragmented, social-media-driven journey from discovery to purchase.
Heritage no longer determines brand value, and brand loyalty is less important than cultural relevance, authenticity, and creator energy: this cohort is more product-driven than brand-driven.
As 40% of younger consumers use AI to shop, brands need to engage a smart AI strategy to win. That includes thinking beyond yesterday's SEO strategies and preparing for agent engine optimization.
https://www.bcg.com/publications/2025/how-gen-z-gen-alpha-rewiring-fashion-industry
Hope somebody from HLG does a rave about AI and AI Agents and how they are using it to grow sales in this world of changing consumers
Here's another piece on such things
The agentic commerce opportunity: How AI agents are ushering in a new era for consumers and merchants
https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/quantumblack/our-insights/the-agentic-commerce-opportunity-how-ai-agents-are-ushering-in-a-new-era-for-consumers-and-merchants?stcr=E98036F638124901BEB53FC47DE604DB&__hScId__=v70000019a64381bf998a935f4bbe5bf30&__hRlId__=5b85b3a7340948120000021ef3a0bcf9&__hDId__=5b85b3a7-3409-4812-848a-7a9f60452ae2&__hSD__=d3d3Lm1ja2luc2V5LmNvbQ==&cid=mgp_opr-eml-nsl-mhl-mgp-glb--&hlkid=351accf07f7d4d8c9657e3b384bd0520&hctky=9198018&hdpid=5b85b3a7-3409-4812-848a-7a9f60452ae2
An AI agent-driven economy? Somehow, I don't like the sound of that....
yes how it makes up sales numbers by selling to jake people it invented to keep the numbers going in the right direction?
Think HLG is doing ok without them...
ATH of $10.20 for HLG today. Nice!
Quote from: Pierre on Nov 12, 2025, 05:48 PMATH of $10.20 for HLG today. Nice!
Don't get too excited there, Pierre.
The weighted average for the day was $9.93, and the SP only shot up in the last minutes of the day, via a few trades of a handful of shares. Maybe it is Sharesies, maybe not. In the last week or so the FMA were prosecuting "an experienced retail investor" for alleged market manipulation of the STU share price. Apparently his modus operandi was "lodging orders that repeatedly impacted the closing prices of STU shares and were therefore likely to have the effect of creating a false or misleading appearance of trading."
I said on the STU thread that this goes on all the time in NZ particularly in low volume stock.
What's the bet that HLG's SP drops 20c or more on opening?
Quote from: LoungeLizard on Nov 12, 2025, 07:52 PMDon't get too excited there, Pierre.
The weighted average for the day was $9.93, and the SP only shot up in the last minutes of the day, via a few trades of a handful of shares. Maybe it is Sharesies, maybe not. In the last week or so the FMA were prosecuting "an experienced retail investor" for alleged market manipulation of the STU share price. Apparently his modus operandi was "lodging orders that repeatedly impacted the closing prices of STU shares and were therefore likely to have the effect of creating a false or misleading appearance of trading."
I said on the STU thread that this goes on all the time in NZ particularly in low volume stock.
What's the bet that HLG's SP drops 20c or more on opening?
The SP has fluctuated a bit over recent weeks so anything is possible tomorrow. However, $10.20 is the highest level it has reached so maybe a little excitement is permitted?
Has been above or around $10 for a little while now..There was an overhang of about 30,000 at $9.90 that was taken out today and was onwards and upwards from there. Decent block of over 80,000 crossed a couple of days ago at $10.09. Annual meeting and trading update less than a month away on 10 December. Goes ex a record 30.5 cps final divvy early Dec.
Quote from: Pierre on Nov 12, 2025, 08:15 PMThe SP has fluctuated a bit over recent weeks so anything is possible tomorrow. However, $10.20 is the highest level it has reached so maybe a little excitement is permitted?
Sure, a little excitement goes a long way.
Weekly fluctuations are different to the sort of trading I'm talking about. Trades in very small parcels - one way or the other - usually at the very end of the day - that are completely out of step with the average or trend. There's no logical reason for it that I can think of other than to pump the SP or to force it down. Either way that's market manipulation, small scale or not.
I wonder what the threshold in trading would be for a brokerage firm/ bank to report such activity to the FMA, as they are obliged to do?
Quote from: LoungeLizard on Nov 12, 2025, 07:52 PMWhat's the bet that HLG's SP drops 20c or more on opening?
Agree....as you say the VWAP is key, as is the buy/sell spread. The overnight spread is 15c so we might easily see a 15c fall on opening tomorrow.
Talk of alleged market manipulation is nonsense in my opinion. After the 30,000 was taken out there seemed to be a steady rise through the rest of the day due to more buyers than sellers, simple as that.
Lounge Lizard clearly has a negative view of HLG and doesn't appear to perceive or value the long. Australian runway ahead of the company which offers the potential for ongoing significant annual growth.
That's fine, we're all allowed our own opinions.
HLG's SP has risen by about 30% over the past 6 months from around $7.70 to its current level of around $10+.
To suggest that a movement of 10 or 20 cents on a few shares at the close of trading today might be market manipulation seems a bit OTT to me.
I suspect investor interest is increasing as the ex-dividend date of December 4 and the trading update on December 10 approach. Watch for more movement in the SP over the next 2-3 weeks.
Quote from: LoungeLizard on Nov 12, 2025, 07:52 PMDon't get too excited there, Pierre.
The weighted average for the day was $9.93, and the SP only shot up in the last minutes of the day, via a few trades of a handful of shares. Maybe it is Sharesies, maybe not. In the last week or so the FMA were prosecuting "an experienced retail investor" for alleged market manipulation of the STU share price. Apparently his modus operandi was "lodging orders that repeatedly impacted the closing prices of STU shares and were therefore likely to have the effect of creating a false or misleading appearance of trading."
I said on the STU thread that this goes on all the time in NZ particularly in low volume stock.
What's the bet that HLG's SP drops 20c or more on opening?
Glad I didnt take your bet. Opened today at $10.19. May not stay at that level though.
I'd agree with Basil that a share split would be the best thing for HLG and its investors. The low liquidity can really distort the SP - sometimes for good, like right now, but if there's any bad news at all - which inevitably there will be - the SP can go off a cliff.Thats one of the risks with this stock that is not being considered in my view - if things go bad they will go really bad.
Quote from: Ferg on Nov 12, 2025, 08:33 PMAgree....as you say the VWAP is key, as is the buy/sell spread. The overnight spread is 15c so we might easily see a 15c fall on opening tomorrow.
Lol....this aged well...... :-[
Note to self: don't comment on daily SP movements......focus on the bigger picture.
As Basil says the future is Glassons in Oz. But I wonder about future imputation credits if most profits are being made there....although in the scheme of things that is a minor concern. IMO NZ and Oz need to align their tax rules about cross-crediting franking & imputation credits. Off topic I know but the sooner NZ Inc is absorbed into Oz the better IMHO.
Quote from: Ferg on Nov 13, 2025, 11:55 AMLol....this aged well...... :-[
Note to self: don't comment on daily SP movements......focus on the bigger picture.
As Basil says the future is Glassons in Oz. But I wonder about future imputation credits if most profits are being made there....although in the scheme of things that is a minor concern. IMO NZ and Oz need to align their tax rules about cross-crediting franking & imputation credits. Off topic I know but the sooner NZ Inc is absorbed into Oz the better IMHO.
Sort of my point there Ferg - daily SP movements are not usually a concern, but with low liquidity, stocks vulnerable to let's call it "creative trading" , they are a concern. You can't keep your eye off the day to day news /trading for one second.
Your/my prediction may or may not be right - either way it relies on some actual trading to take place. ;)
Half the day gone and 1300 shares traded !
Quote from: LoungeLizard on Nov 13, 2025, 10:52 AMI'd agree with Basil that a share split would be the best thing for HLG and its investors. The low liquidity can really distort the SP - sometimes for good, like right now, but if there's any bad news at all - which inevitably there will be - the SP can go off a cliff.Thats one of the risks with this stock that is not being considered in my view - if things go bad they will go really bad.
I agree with a share split. 5 to 1 split would be nice. Have said this before. It might be easier for a $2 share to go to a $3 share than a $10 share to go to a $15 share. Please correct me if I am wrong. Also the smaller shareies amounts will probably become 5 times bigger making less transactions on your bank statements. Pages of bank statements with 1, 2, 3 etc transactions :o Good discussions everyone. Now back to SEK which goes ex div 2 weeks after HLG.
HLG goes ex its FY25 final divvy of 30.5 cps on Thursday 4th and the annual meeting is next Wednesday 10 December.
If you treat this dividend as part repayment of the purchase price, at $9.65 less 30.5 cps = $9.345 based on Forsyth Barr's forecasts HLG trades on 11.95 times FY26 eps and 10.8 times FY27 forecasted earnings. If their dividend forecasts are met and there's 50% imputation level attached that's a gross yield of 8.3% and 9.2% respectively. This for the oldest listed company on the NZX with a 5 year EPS CAGR of 9% per annum, excellent management and no debt !
Cheapest well proven Australasian growth stock on the market ? Opportunity knocks ?
Disc: Already my #1 listed position otherwise I'd buy more.
Quote from: Basil on Dec 02, 2025, 12:15 PMHLG goes ex its FY25 final divvy of 30.5 cps on Thursday 4th and the annual meeting is next Wednesday 10 December.
If you treat this dividend as part repayment of the purchase price, at $9.65 less 30.5 cps = $9.345 based on Forsyth Barr's forecasts HLG trades on 11.95 times FY26 eps and 10.8 times FY27 forecasted earnings. If their dividend forecasts are met and there's 50% imputation level attached that's a gross yield of 8.3% and 9.2% respectively. This for the oldest listed company on the NZX with a 5 year EPS CAGR of 9% per annum, excellent management and no debt !
Cheapest well proven Australasian growth stock on the market ? Opportunity knocks ?
Disc: Already my #1 listed position otherwise I'd buy more.
All true, maybe, but for defensive-minded investors, a fashion retailer demanding $10 per share just doesn't pass the smell test.
At times like these, with the US and global economies hanging by a thread and NZ in a prolonged recession, I personally wouldn't feel comfortable being loaded up with HLG shares, juicy dividend notwithstanding. My guess also is that the SP will slip badly ex-dividend as sellers chase a very small pool of buyers. HLG's poor liquidity is a big problem in my view as huge swings can occur on very small volume.
disc. waiting for the other shoe to drop :o
I am waiting for agm comments.
I am expecting a very positive updates on Glassons Australia trading and expansion plans.
At results time they said "The first seven weeks of the new financial year have delivered a solid start, with Group sales up +12.9% on the prior corresponding period, driven primarily by the Australian market and the ongoing contribution from stores opened or refurbished in FY2025."
Australia retail seems to be quite robust since so maybe +12.9% has increased to +15% p[us
Quote from: lorraina on Dec 02, 2025, 02:15 PMI am waiting for agm comments.
I am expecting a very positive updates on Glassons Australia trading and expansion plans.
Expansion during a global recession. What could go wrong?
9% CAGR in EPS despite an endless recession in N Z. since Covid and a long recession in Australia.
Gosh, what if we've already passed through the bottom of the retail cycle and there's years of double digit sales growth ahead ?
My first business was a toy shop in Christchurch.
In 1974 or 1975 Canterbury economy was in a recession.
My mother's golf friends said to my mother your son will be finding business very tough this Christmas.
My mother replied,"he is too busy to read the newspaper, so does not realise there is a recession."
I would expect James Glasson currently will be so busy, he will be finding it hard to make time to attend the agm.
Malls love new blood.Glassons are there to provide it...lol
Well all will be revealed next Wednesday.
Quote from: lorraina on Dec 02, 2025, 02:44 PMMy first business was a toy shop in Christchurch.
In 1974 or 1975 Canterbury economy was in a recession.
My mother's golf friends said to my mother your son will be finding business very tough this Christmas.
My mother replied,"he is too busy to read the newspaper, so does not realise there is a recession."
I would expect James Glasson currently will be so busy, he will be finding it hard to make time to attend the agm.
Malls love new blood.Glassons are there to provide it...lol
Well all will be revealed next Wednesday.
I was mentoring a retailer and he asked what happens during a recession.
I replied 'did you struggle during 1999/2000' ....he said no and thats when I told him that was a pretty bad recession time. So no worries I sad
I sometimes worry about Basil reading newspapers and economist reports as much as he does ...only makes him believe that we are going through the deepest recession in decades. sorry Basil
Don't worry about me mate. I fully cognisant that really good companies do well no matter what the economic conditions.
I think customers are very savvy.
They avoid shops that are stale or going backwards.
Glassons shops always look bright and exciting.
Quote from: lorraina on Dec 02, 2025, 02:44 PMMy first business was a toy shop in Christchurch.
In 1974 or 1975 Canterbury economy was in a recession.
My mother's golf friends said to my mother your son will be finding business very tough this Christmas.
My mother replied,"he is too busy to read the newspaper, so does not realise there is a recession."
I would expect James Glasson currently will be so busy, he will be finding it hard to make time to attend the agm.
Malls love new blood.Glassons are there to provide it...lol
Well all will be revealed next Wednesday.
I am going to Christchurch to attend the meeting. I'm keen to meet the board members and join them in enjoying the positive update we are about to receive.
If the SP drops after it goes ex-div, I don't think it will stay down for very long.
Glassons Australia could be the exception that proves the rule around recessionary economics, so its possible they may continue to do well in the short term. But even the best run company is not immune over time to economic forces that drive consumer demand down. Nor is it immune to share market corrections, which there's also strong evidence to suggest is overdue, particularly in the US. Some exposure to retail is probably ok, and HLG is as good as any, but I just wouldn't have too many eggs in that basket right at this moment.
Be there well before 10 am.
More like 9.25 as they have the morning tea before the meeting.
A note I sent to a couple of my mates...
Subject: My shout for morning tea.
Would you like to join me for morning tea next Wednesday.?
A bit earlier,but 9.30 am at Rydges Latimer.
Quote from: Basil on Dec 02, 2025, 03:26 PMDon't worry about me mate. I fully cognisant that really good companies do well no matter what the economic conditions.
What recession
Screenshot 2025-12-02 151902.png
Quote from: LoungeLizard on Dec 02, 2025, 03:44 PMGlassons Australia could be the exception that proves the rule around recessionary economics, so its possible they may continue to do well in the short term.
Glasson's Au sales have grown from $40m in 2016 to $253m in 2025. More than 6 times the level they were 9 years ago ! That's a 22.75% CAGR over 9 years. At last report year to date sales are up 12.9%. I'm not sure how much more evidence anyone with both eyes open could possibly need lol
There is none so blind as those that will not see.
Quote from: Basil on Dec 02, 2025, 04:00 PMGlasson's Au sales have grown from $40m in 2016 to $253m in 2025. More than 6 times the level they were 9 years ago ! That's a 22.75% CAGR over 9 years. At last report year to date sales are up 12.9%. I'm not sure how much more evidence anyone with both eyes open could possibly need lol
There is none so blind as those that will not see.
It's possible that LL may be suffering a bit of angst at having missed the HLG bus.
Quote from: Pierre on Dec 02, 2025, 04:18 PMIt's possible that LL may be suffering a bit of angst at having missed the HLG bus.
Not quite, Pierre. I bought into HLG quite some time ago and made a healthy profit in selling up when it looked to be getting ahead of itself. It has of course gone up further, but I sleep easy at night and the funds are doing well elsewhere.
The history of a company is an important indicator of future performance, but it's only an indicator. You've got to be aware of the macroeconomic environment - current and forecast - that all business's operate in. I could well be wrong and HLG may continue to expand ad infitum - well done to holders if that is the case. I'm just sounding a note of caution not to get too carried away in extrapolating the data without taking into account the changing economic conditions.
Hey LL, we've heard the same warning now about 15-20 times. We're not deaf dumb or blind so consider your concerns well and truly heard. Of course I've never been excessively dogmatic in the past to the point of driving people absolutely nuts ROFL
Quote from: Basil on Dec 02, 2025, 05:19 PMHey LL, we've heard the same warning now about 15-20 times. We're not deaf dumb or blind so consider your concerns well and truly heard. Of course I've never been excessively dogmatic in the past to the point of driving people absolutely nuts ROFL
Fair enough.
But my comments are not necessarily directed at you or other experienced investors who will carry on doing what they do regardless. More I'm trying to provide an alternative perspective for newbies that may read the predominantly one-sided view on HLG and think it's a sure fire bet. Which, of course, it isn't. Those who bought in a while ago have done well regardless of what happens from here. I'm more worried at those buying it at $10+ with the expectation that $15 is just around the corner. Which, of course, it isn't.
3 years hence, (nobody ever suggested it was just around the corner), I reckon $15 is a chance. Forbar predicting 92 cps EPS in FY28 so this time in 2028 we might be looking at a possible EPS target for FY29 of $1 per share. Put a forward PE of 15 on that = $15 per share.
PE of 15 a fanciful dream ? Not at all for a company growing EPS at a 5 year CAGR of 9%. Go back 18 months to when Turners was $4. Nobody, not even me, thought it would be ~ $8 and trading on a forward PE of 16.
When the market wakes up to how much quality there is in a stock, very good things can happen in a surprisingly short period of time. Market is awake to Turners now and it remains a good hold for ongoing growth. Market is not wide awake to HLG on a forward PE of ~ 12.
Quote from: LoungeLizard on Dec 02, 2025, 05:06 PMNot quite, Pierre. I bought into HLG quite some time ago and made a healthy profit in selling up when it looked to be getting ahead of itself. It has of course gone up further, but I sleep easy at night and the funds are doing well elsewhere.
The history of a company is an important indicator of future performance, but it's only an indicator. You've got to be aware of the macroeconomic environment - current and forecast - that all business's operate in. I could well be wrong and HLG may continue to expand ad infitum - well done to holders if that is the case. I'm just sounding a note of caution not to get too carried away in extrapolating the data without taking into account the changing economic conditions.
If that is your concern, why then are you not issuing similar warnings to investors in many other companies? Or does your caution about the macroeconomic environment apply only to HLG?
I think it's pretty clear that HLG has a massive expansion runway ahead of it with the potential for increasing profits over the coming years - something that's not necessarily obvious with many other companies (TRA excepted).
Quote from: Pierre on Dec 02, 2025, 07:23 PMI think it's pretty clear that HLG has a massive expansion runway ahead of it with the potential for increasing profits over the coming years
Crystal clear for anyone who opens both eyes. Enjoy your time at the annual meeting. I'd really like to be there but unfortunately won't. I'll tune in online though.
Quote from: Pierre on Dec 02, 2025, 07:23 PMIf that is your concern, why then are you not issuing similar warnings to investors in many other companies? Or does your caution about the macroeconomic environment apply only to HLG?
I think it's pretty clear that HLG has a massive expansion runway ahead of it with the potential for increasing profits over the coming years - something that's not necessarily obvious with many other companies (TRA excepted).
Actually, I think I've made it pretty clear that NZ equities generally may not be the best place to park one's money right now, considering the state of the global economy and the US in particular. I did state that I've cashed up all but a handful of defensive stocks (and a couple of long shots). I could post those comments on every thread but... really?
HLG though looks particularly worrisome in my view, but as mentioned, I'm not trying to persuade anyone that they are wrong - the future will determine who was wrong or right. I don't hold HLG and it makes no difference either way to me what happens, so good luck to holders. I'd actually rather be the one who is wrong and you all make a lot of money. ;)
TA is not great, it's topped on the daily, weekly and monthly. 50dma breached today, recently it's gone to the 200dma after that ($8.53 currently). But being a thinly traded stock, charts are less reliable.
I think there's a few things that some are missing.
1. the target market for Glassons 13-30 year old women don't care whether there's a recession in the US, whether the US market is overvalued or the NZ or the ASX either. They have kept spending despite all the drama's of Covid and the protracted recession that followed which is what's driven the 5 year CAGR is EPS of 9%
2 Yes a correction in markets could mean HLG shares correct a bit, but long term GARP investors investing for growth in income and dividends will be unaffected over the long run.
3. Why have young women kept spending and why will they continue ? They think very differently to a 64 year old semi retiree like me but I have had two daughters and now granddaughters so I can reliably say their focus is on looking smart when they go out to have a good time with their girlfriends or out chasing the coolest guy they can find. Its all about looking good and looking cool on social media and in the real world. Very few of them could care less what the state of the economy is or the size of their retirement savings. Its about having fun at that age and making good social connections to build on for the rest of their lives. Glasson's specialises in affordable fashion and is generally priced at the mid point. They've carved themselves out a decent sized niche in the Australian market and the consistent strong growth there irrespective of various economic conditions over the last 9 years has been very impressive to say the least.
4. There's a very high probability we've already seen the worst economic conditions in the last few years and things will gradually improve in the years ahead. There is emerging green shoots and anecdotal evidence supporting this contention
5. The $10 share price level obviously scares off some people but it is irrelevant in the overall scheme of things. All the matters is that the metrics are very attractive for a growth company. The fact that some would feel more comfortable at $2 after a 5:1 share split is just retail investor psyche. Professional investors know a share split makes no difference other than perhaps boosting liquidity.
That said I am still in favour (as are some others), of a share split so would someone please do us a favour and ask the board at the annual meeting if they have considered this.
Basil.
I think no.3 is a good point. Girls that age would starve themselves to look good..
I had been thinking about the items I recently bought online for my husband. By the way the knitwear was good quality and reasonably priced.
Household spend up Aust up strongly in October
One of strongest categories was clothing, +3.5% month on month
Good news next week at ASM
Should be a great week. Monster divvy to be paid out on Friday next week is a real problem solver for Christmas and the summer holidays and then another huge divvy is due in April !
I am coming into some cash in the coming days and struggling to decide whether I add more TWR or more HLG. Maybe I just got 50/50.
Quote from: Dolcile on Dec 04, 2025, 09:05 PMI am coming into some cash in the coming days and struggling to decide whether I add more TWR or more HLG. Maybe I just got 50/50.
Dont forget to consider TRA too!
Yeah I've already got plenty of TRA :-)
Retailwatch shows NZ sales for November +6.7% on last year
Clothing up 6.7% ...wow ...even Hallensteins improving?
No doubt HLG management will be happy at ASM
I bought a few more yesterday. Couldn't help myself run my own DRIP scheme before I get the dividend next week. I look at it this way, I bought my future self a very good Christmas present with that dividend due shortly. That Christmas present will be very useful in my retirement. Might run my DRIP again with the April dividend next year.
Quote from: Basil on Dec 06, 2025, 01:01 PMI bought a few more yesterday. Couldn't help myself run my own DRIP scheme before I get the dividend next week. I look at it this way, I bought my future self a very good Christmas present with that dividend due shortly. That Christmas present will be very useful in my retirement. Might run my DRIP again with the April dividend next year.
I've been retired a few years now and using dividend income to fund lots of travel. Last year we spent 2 weeks in Western Australia, ending with 4 nights on the Indian Pacific train to Sydney. Then a month in Bali escaping the winter. In September/October, 7 weeks in France, Spain, Portugal and the Canary Islands.
We've got 4 trips planned for next year: Melbourne & Tasmania, Sth Island/West Coast, Bali (our annual pilgrimage), 7 weeks in Italy, Greece & Croatia.
We've got nothing to show from our divvies from HLG, TRA and a few others - just lots of photos and heaps of great memories!
Pierre ... train journeys
Have you done the darwin to Adelaide one
Quote from: Pierre on Dec 06, 2025, 01:45 PMI've been retired a few years now and using dividend income to fund lots of travel. Last year we spent 2 weeks in Western Australia, ending with 4 nights on the Indian Pacific train to Sydney. Then a month in Bali escaping the winter. In September/October, 7 weeks in France, Spain, Portugal and the Canary Islands.
We've got 4 trips planned for next year: Melbourne & Tasmania, Sth Island/West Coast, Bali (our annual pilgrimage), 7 weeks in Italy, Greece & Croatia.
We've got nothing to show from our divvies from HLG, TRA and a few others - just lots of photos and heaps of great memories!
Sounds great !
Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 06, 2025, 02:02 PMPierre ... train journeys
Have you done the darwin to Adelaide one
Yes, we've done the Ghan -except we did the reverse trip - Adelaide to Darwin. We've also done the Great Southern - Brisbane to Adelaide. That runs December to February when it's too hot to travel through the centre on the Ghan. We enjoyed all trips but the Gt Southern was our favourite.
Nice one Pierre.....great to see you enjoying the fruits of your investments.
On that topic but off topic, recently I have been thinking about the suitability of using IRR when assessing an investment. The IRR assumes subsequent cash inflows are reinvested at the same rate of return. But as per Pierre's anecdote, this is not actually the case for many investors. In which case the MIRR (modified IRR) function is a better tool which can be set to assume subsequent cash inflows are NOT reinvested and instead earn 0%.
Back on topic....looking forward to the upcoming AGM. I will try to watch it online barring incidents, accidents, good surfing conditions or good fishing conditions....
In the last 6 annual meetings the average sales growth announced for the first few months of the new trading year has been 9.6%.
CAGR in EPS last 5 years has been 9%.
Anything above 9.6% sales growth for early trading in FY26 is above average growth. Given the well known cost of living pressures this year I'd be very happy with 7-8% sales growth so far this year. Rome wasn't built in a day and I also think we are just past the bottom of the retail cycle and things should improve from here.
New distrbution centre being commissioned later this financial year so they're setting the groundwork for more expansion in FY27 and beyound.
Quote from: Pierre on Dec 06, 2025, 01:45 PM...Bali (our annual pilgrimage), 7 weeks in Italy, Greece & Croatia.
We've got nothing to show from our divvies from HLG, TRA and a few others - just lots of photos and heaps of great memories!
Good on Pierre
Off topic, but what is the attraction of Bali for a retired couple (without knowing your age) - never been myself
Quote from: Basil on Dec 08, 2025, 07:10 AMIn the last 6 annual meetings the average sales growth announced for the first few months of the new trading year has been 9.6%.
CAGR in EPS last 5 years has been 9%.
Anything above 9.6% sales growth for early trading in FY26 is above average growth. Given the well known cost of living pressures this year I'd be very happy with 7-8% sales growth so far this year. Rome wasn't built in a day and I also think we are just past the bottom of the retail cycle and things should improve from here.
New distrbution centre being commissioned later this financial year so they're setting the groundwork for more expansion in FY27 and beyound.
Don't forget H125 they reported a 'flat' result so we should be expecting something better this time around.
H125 Glassons AU sales were up 16% on pcp. Group sales in NZ were basically flat.
This H126 expect Glassons AU to continuing growing but I'd expect Group sales in NZ to be up 6%/7%. So your 7%-8% is going to be 11%/12% I reckon
Bring it on
Quote from: Jay on Dec 08, 2025, 09:09 AMGood on Pierre
Off topic, but what is the attraction of Bali for a retired couple (without knowing your age) - never been myself
A great place to escape the Hawke's Bay winter. We love Bali's warm climate, affordable luxury, great beaches, excellent restaurants, friendly people and low cost of living. We spend a month there each year.
Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 08, 2025, 09:46 AMDon't forget H125 they reported a 'flat' result so we should be expecting something better this time around.
H125 Glassons AU sales were up 16% on pcp. Group sales in NZ were basically flat.
This H126 expect Glassons AU to continuing growing but I'd expect Group sales in NZ to be up 6%/7%. So your 7%-8% is going to be 11%/12% I reckon
Bring it on
Hope you're right mate. Got any plans for your huge dividend on Friday ? Maybe get your dogs some treats and new toys ? No doubt your family will also appreciate extra Christmas presents this year too.
Looking forward to the ASM docs being lodged shortly... hopefully
Quote from: Pierre on Dec 02, 2025, 03:39 PMI am going to Christchurch to attend the meeting. I'm keen to meet the board members and join them in enjoying the positive update we are about to receive.
If the SP drops after it goes ex-div, I don't think it will stay down for very long.
Good effort going from Hawkes Bay to attend a Chch meeting...would not have been cheap. Hope you're having a good time and I'm looking forward to you sharing any interesting anecdotes from your discussions with management and the board later today when you you get a chance. Same for you Lorriana.
I'm a bit surprised meeting announcements haven't already been released to the market considering they will include price sensitive information including sales update for FY26. Was the same last year, info not released to the market until 9.56 a.m. I could have slept in a bit longer this morning if I was aware of that lol
Quote from: Basil on Dec 10, 2025, 09:46 AMI'm a bit surprised meeting announcements haven't already been released to the market considering they will include price sensitive information including sales update for FY26. Was the same last year, info not released to the market until 9.56 a.m. I could have slept in a bit longer this morning if I was aware of that lol
I just checked last year, and the info was released at 9.56am
Group sales up 13.8% ;)
WOW FY26 is off to a flying start ! Very happy with that !
My 5 period seasonality model predicts full year sales will be $518m with a confidence level of 95% - that's nearly $50m more than F25. At 60% GM that = $30m higher gross margin
WOW indeed
Warren Bell https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/464282/attachment/458633/464282-458633.pdf
James Glasson https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/464282/attachment/458634/464282-458634.pdf
James McLauchlan https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/464282/attachment/458634/464282-458634.pdf
I'm especially impressed with James Glasson's approach of steady sustainable growth and wanting to protect the brand and be there for at least another 100 years. I really like the way these guys are going about steadily growing the business in a low risk way.
Disc: Topped up with a few more this morning My #1 investment position.
I was surprised someone was willing to sell me HLG this morning at $9.27. Seems like a Christmas bargain
Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 08, 2025, 09:46 AMThis H126 expect Glassons AU to continuing growing but I'd expect Group sales in NZ to be up 6%/7%. So your 7%-8% is going to be 11%/12% I reckon
Bring it on
You were close with your 11-12% mate. 13.8% sales growth YTD exceeded both our expectations !
James Glassons talk of the RFD efficiencies and the new efficiencies from one 7000 sq m warehouse distrbution location instead of 3 buildings totaling 3500 sq meters sounds great. Doubling the distribution warehouse space gives a very interesting signal about future growth plans and adding automated picking technology too.
One of those shareholder questions was not like the others.......lol
Quote from: Ferg on Dec 10, 2025, 10:59 AMOne of those shareholder questions was not like the others.......lol
Spill...?
Quote from: Dolcile on Dec 10, 2025, 11:00 AMSpill...?
One shareholder took issue with the way the Chairman addressed female Directors & Management versus males.....something he needs to think about...... ::)
13.8% YTD sales growth compares to 9.6% average YTD sales growth announced at the annual meeting for the last 6 years.
Impressed with the experience of board members.
Interesting. Analyst market consensus is for sales growth in FY26 of 7.35% but its growing YTD @ 13.8%. Analyst upgrades coming after their half year guidance update in February ? 17% EPS growth forecasted by analysts this year but top line sales growth YTD is growing at nearly double the expected rate. Hmmm Forward FY26 PE only 12 at $9.30. PEG ratio based on current forecasted growth in EPS is only 0.7 ! My goodness, with the very long runway of growth in Australia its the perfect GARP stock.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HALLENSTEIN-GLASSON-HOLDI-6495564/consensus/
It's interesting to see the discussion around HLG centred around growth. It used to be a great dividend stock but at $10 or even $9, 55c isn't a great yield, so those buying in at these levels certainly must have a great belief that HLG can continue growing earnings and maintain margins well into the future. So far, to its credit, HLG have defied the odds, in what is normally seen as an unpredictable, risky sector.
What do you mean not a good yield - what numbers are you working off LL ?
Average of 3 analysts are forecasting dividends as follows, I have grossed up for my own calculations of 50% imputation level, (see previous posts for my assumptions and calculations around this), and show the gross dividend and yield at $9.30
FY26 66 cps (gross 76.74 cps, gross yield 8.25%) (Note a 20% jump in dividends from FY15 seems a lot but its supported by 17% forecast EPS growth)
FY27 75 cps (gross 87.21 cps, gross yield 9.38%)
FY28 82 cps (gross 95.34 cps, gross yield 10.25%)
There's a 9 year track record of very strong growth with Glassons Au supporting those growth forecasts. In my opinion shareholders are being paid very handsomely indeed to enjoy strong growth in the years ahead and are buying on dirt cheap metrics (forward PE only 12) and with a price earnings to growth ratio (PEG) of only 0.7 you're getting future growth at an exceptionally cheap price. Accordingly to Barramundi the average PEG of the ASX200 stocks is 3.3 !
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HALLENSTEIN-GLASSON-HOLDI-6495564/finances/
Quote from: Dolcile on Dec 10, 2025, 03:30 PMWhat do you mean not a good yield - what numbers are you working off LL ?
The numbers I quoted. Total divvy this year was 55c. The SP has been over $10. Thats a straight forward calculation if you leave out the part-imputation.
A yield of less than 6% is less than say GNE and other more defensive stocks. As I said, a fashion retailer demanding $10 per share at a relatively low yield doesn't sit well with me. But by the sounds of things people are seeing HLG as a growth stock, extrapolating it's historical growth into the future as if that's a given. That doesn't square with me either, but I'll admit to being very risk adverse
Market is always forward looking LL so there's a fundamental flaw with your thinking there. Leaving out part imputation is also a mistake as is comparing a growth stock like HLG to a pure defensive stock like GNE. FYI I also hold some GNE. We should do okay with GNE but its a yield stock and that's all its ever going to be. Its also a quassi Government department with the Govt having a majority stake. Good place to hide if you're super defensive.
Quote from: Basil on Dec 10, 2025, 03:58 PMMarket is always forward looking LL so there's a fundamental flaw with your thinking there. Leaving out part imputation is also a mistake as is comparing a growth stock like HLG to a pure defensive stock like GNE. FYI I also hold some GNE. We should do okay with GNE but its a yield stock and that's all its ever going to be. Its also a quassi Government department with the Govt having a majority stake.
Not sure if my approach is flawed.
I certainly look ahead at industry and macroeconomic factors in making a decision to buy, as my main concern is to protect capital going forward, but for an inherently risky stock I need to be compensated for that risk immediately. ie I look at what the yield is currently. Hoping that dividends will increase in the future to compensate for the risk that is present now, is not the way I would do things.
Currently HLG is offering less than 6%. Thats far too low to buy at current levels, extrapolated earnings growth notwithstanding.
Each to their own way of thinking and doing things LL but please be aware that the gross historical yield showing on the invest direct website for FY25 is 7.06% at a share price of $9.55 so maybe try not to skew the narrative to make it fit your pre-conceived viewpoint, or not, I don't really care as I'm not here to sell anyone the stock, just to share my observations to those who are interested. You can lead a horse to water but you can't make it drink.
Quote from: Basil on Dec 10, 2025, 04:15 PMEach to their own way of thinking and doing things LL but please be aware that the gross historical yield showing on the invest direct website for FY25 is 7.06% at a share price of $9.55 so maybe try not to skew the narrative to make it fit your pre-conceived viewpoint, or not, I don't really care as I'm not here to sell anyone the stock, just to share my observations to those who are interested. You can lead a horse to water but you can't make it drink.
I'm obviously an outlier, but I'm not trying to skew anyones view here, Basil, so please don't insinuate that is the case. I think you would react badly, justifiably, if anyone accused you of ramping a stock, so perhaps you could be a bit more welcoming of an alternative view?
If I paid $10 this year for HLG and I got 55c total dividend then in my simple view, I have achieved a 5.5% yield (not taking the part imputation into consideration). I could care less what historically HLG offered and for a risky stock I wouldn't necessarily make the assumption that the future dividends would go up to mitigate the risk of holding the stock now.
I'm just stating the facts and average forecasted yields based off consensus of 3 analysts views and my own deep understanding of the company having been an investor for nearly a decade buying in 2016 at $2.70 Back in those days it was all hard graft as there was no analyst coverage and their was an absolute endless stream of naysayers bagging the stock, all who have been proven wrong, hence my confidence you ill also be proven to be wrong in due course.
You keep stating your opinion that its a risky stock, as though that's a fact. Nothing could be further from the truth in my opinion. What I see is a very similar level of resiliency to Turners who have also growth their EPS very strongly over the last 6 years in what has been inarguably, the toughest period of trading for retailers in decades but if you can't see that, then you will see what you want to see. I'm not here to change your mind LL, you've obviously made your decision to sell some time ago at a much lower price. Good luck getting better returns with other stocks.. You've expressed your opinion literally dozens of times, so please be a good chap and just let shareholders enjoy their day in the sun. Mr Market has spoken about today's update and is very pleased indeed and so am I.
Quote from: Basil on Dec 10, 2025, 05:08 PMI'm just stating the facts and average forecasted yields based off consensus of 3 analysts views and my own deep understanding of the company having been an investor for nearly a decade buying in 2016 at $2.70 Back in those days it was all hard graft as there was no analyst coverage and their was an absolute endless stream of naysayers bagging the stock, all who have been proven wrong, hence my confidence you ill also be proven to be wrong in due course.
You keep stating your opinion that its a risky stock, as though that's a fact. Nothing could be further from the truth in my opinion. What I see is a very similar level of resiliency to Turners who have also growth their EPS very strongly over the last 6 years in what has been inarguably, the toughest period of trading for retailers in decades but if you can't see that, then you will see what you want to see. I'm not here to change your mind LL, you've obviously made your decision to sell. Good luck getting better returns with other stocks.. You've expressed your opinion literally dozens of times, so please be a good chap and just let shareholders enjoy their day in the sun. Mr Market has spoken about today's update and is very pleased indeed and so am I.
Yeah, it is a pain when a person keeps on saying the same thing, as though it were gospel, day in and day out.
Quote from: LoungeLizard on Dec 10, 2025, 05:58 PMYeah, it is a pain when a person keeps on saying the same things, as though it were gospel, day in and day out.
Bit unfair that comment LL
Isn't he in most cases responding to your posts which with all due respect are rather repetitive
Quote from: LoungeLizard on Dec 10, 2025, 05:58 PMYeah, it is a pain when a person keeps on saying the same thing, as though it were gospel, day in and day out.
We're all entitled to our opinions about the merits or otherwise of investment opportunities, but I think the market generally gives us a pretty good guide as to what's good and what's not.
HLG's SP 12 months ago was $6.76 and is $9.56 today - a gain of 41.4% (that's after going ex a 30.5cps dividend). Therefore, it seems fair to assume that more investors agree with Basil's opinion than with Lounge Lizard's.
I made my decision a few years back and am very happy now to be counted among the top 39 shareholders in the company. LL's decision is not to be on the list at all.
I'm loving the capital gain and also looking forward to a big, fat juicy dividend arriving in the bank on Friday - and even bigger, fatter, juicier divvies in the years ahead. Hopefully, LL will be enjoying similar excellent returns from an alternative investment.
Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 10, 2025, 06:10 PMBit unfair that comment LL
Isn't he in most cases responding to your posts which with all due respect are rather repetitive
I don't really want to go down this track, Winner - we are all entitled to state our views whether you or anyone else agrees with them or not. As for whether one voice dominates or is repetitive or not, that is all a matter of opinion and I suspect it has more to do whether that voice agrees with you or not.
FYI - I got exactly the same comments - from exactly the same people - to basically shut-up when I gave a dissenting, risk-based view about HGH, shortly before the SP collapsed.
But in the interests of preserving the echo chamber, I'll stop now.
Quote from: Pierre on Dec 10, 2025, 07:06 PMWe're all entitled to our opinions about the merits or otherwise of investment opportunities, but I think the market generally gives us a pretty good guide as to what's good and what's not.
HLG's SP 12 months ago was $6.76 and is $9.56 today - a gain of 41.4% (that's after going ex a 30.5cps dividend). Therefore, it seems fair to assume that more investors agree with Basil's opinion than with Lounge Lizard's.
I made my decision a few years back and am very happy now to be counted among the top 39 shareholders in the company. LL's decision is not to be on the list at all.
I'm loving the capital gain and also looking forward to a big, fat juicy dividend arriving in the bank on Friday - and even bigger, fatter, juicier divvies in the years ahead. Hopefully, LL will be enjoying similar excellent returns from an alternative investment.
Nice one Pierre. No wonder you can easily afford to travel so much. Did you attend today ? Any insights from discussions to share ?
Quote from: Basil on Dec 10, 2025, 08:25 PMNice one Pierre. No wonder you can easily afford to travel so much. Did you attend today ? Any insights from discussions to share ?
Yes, I attended the meeting and spoke to three of the directors at the morning tea. However, this was held prior to the meeting, so they couldn't reveal anything in advance of what was going to be announced or discussed at the meeting.
I had to leave for the airport as soon as the meeting concluded so didn't have an opportunity for any further discussion.
The main item that I think most investors were waiting for was the trading update for the first 4 months of FY26. Like most, I was pretty stunned when they revealed sales were almost 14% up on the pcp.
Obviously, the Australian Glassons activity is the key to the ongoing growth of the business, and the leadership and drive of James Glasson is fundamental to the results the company is achieving. I was impressed with his focus on continuous business improvement and extracting the maximum efficiency from everything they do, instead of just going on a tear to open additional stores. Expansion at a carefully managed and controlled pace seems to be his mantra, together with his desire to see the company survive for a second 100 years of trading!
We should also see improved results from the Hallensteins brand under James McLauchlan who has just completed his first year as CEO of that division.
Online sales continue to be an important contributor to the result and again accounted for 18% of total sales.
One of the directors I spoke with asked me why I had invested in the company. I said I was happy with growth in the SP, but now I am retired, my main purpose was income to fund my overseas travel. She replied that I should be away a lot more in future years!
It's great being a part owner of such a well managed, tightly controlled business that is focused on a great experience for its staff, customers and shareholders.
The market clearly liked today's news and I won't be at all surprised if there's a further lift in the SP on Thursday.
Quote from: Pierre on Dec 10, 2025, 10:11 PMOne of the directors I spoke with asked me why I had invested in the company. I said I was happy with growth in the SP, but now I am retired, my main purpose was income to fund my overseas travel. She replied that I should be away a lot more in future years!
Good to hear Pierre and thanks for sharing.
Gosh if HLG pay 82 cps dividends in FY28 as per consensus analyst forecast, as a top 40 shareholder you're going to have a lot of money to burn through on travel. Bali won't cut the mustard mate. Fortunately, I'm here to help and hear that Switzerland is a fabulous place to burn through large chunks of money in August. Fly first class into Zurich, stay at 5 star hotels for a month and visit plenty of attractions. That'll solve your very nice to have problem lol.
https://www.swissrailways.com/en/buy-mountain-excursions-tickets
I'm still feeling chuffed about picking up another $30k worth of HLG on wednesday at $9.27. Too good to turn down after the 13.8% revenue growth was announced.
Likewise, it almost felt like legalized stealing. We should both spend a night locked up in the cells to pay penance lol
I thought it might be another good day for HLG but wasn't anticipating it would close at $9.90.
I hope Basil and Dolcile are feeling extremely guilty about having stolen shares in the $9.20s a couple of days ago.
And I'm guessing LL might be licking wounds at having missed the HLG bus - especially as we are also being paid a handsome 30.5cps dividend tomorrow.
Oh well, you can't help bad luck!
It all makes for a very merry Christmas - and it definitely looks like a prosperous year ahead for holders!
Quote from: Pierre on Dec 11, 2025, 05:06 PMI thought it might be another good day for HLG but wasn't anticipating it would close at $9.90. I hope Basil and Dolcile are feeling extremely guilty about having stolen shares in the $9.20s a couple of days ago.
It was only yesterday mate. Its starting to look like a morally heinous crime so at least two nights in the can seems more appropriate now lol
some lovely rail trip in that country.. truly fabulous....
https://www.alpenwild.com/trip/scenic-alps-by-rail/overview/
Voting results https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/464330/attachment/458703/464330-458703.pdf
Getting a bit older and slower these days and missed a little something yesterday that just crossed my mind.
First 7 weeks sales up 12.9% YTD per annual report.
First 18 weeks sales up 13.8% YTD per yesterday's annual meeting.
It would appear the most recent 11 weeks have been up more than 13.8% because of the marginally lower growth rate in the first 7 weeks.
Fortunately even at this hour I can still remember how to solve that equation and the answer is, sales in the most recent 11 week period have been up 14.4% on last year.
Well done on sniffing that out Basil. You've still got it!
Good work Basil!
Did you see in today's market report published on NBR that ForBarr analysts have increased their target price for HLG by 65cents to $11.75?
They predict that sales growth will continue through the Christmas period and continue to rate the company as Outperform.
Quote from: Pierre on Dec 11, 2025, 10:37 PMGood work Basil!
Did you see in today's market report published on NBR that ForBarr analysts have increased their target price for HLG by 65cents to $11.75?
They predict that sales growth will continue through the Christmas period and continue to rate the company as Outperform.
Jeez $11.75 target from Forbar. Good one
My projected $518m revenues should lead to Npat of about $48m
That's an eps of 80 cents
At $11.75 target still only a PE of 14 ....on forward looking basis a PE just over 12 today
Looking good
Pierre, have you got a link to that NBR article ?thank you
Quote from: Dolcile on Dec 12, 2025, 09:31 AMPierre, have you got a link to that NBR article ?thank you
Unfortunately, it's paywalled. You have to be a subscriber to gain access.
I am a subscriber I just can't find the one you are referring
I can't find it this morning either!
It was NBR's report on yesterday's market activity and I read it late last evening.
I dont know why, but it appears to have been dropped from the website today.
It referred to a note that ForBar had issued yesterday to their clients about HLG.
I'm not a ForBar client but maybe someone on here who is can provide a bit more detail?
That's a shame, thanks for checking Pierre.
Divvie in the bank just now. Next one due in April.
Lovely!
SP edging up again. Will be $10+ today.
This in the Herald today
Hallenstein bucks the trend
Forsyth Barr noted clothing retailer Hallenstein Glassons (HLG) provided a strong 18-week 2026 trading update with sales up 13.8% on the prior year, accelerating from 12.9% in the seven-week trading update in September 2025.
Sales growth has been driven by continued strength in Australia, with contributions from new store openings, store expansions and refurbishments completed in the last year.
While the New Zealand operating backdrop remains challenging, both businesses are trading ahead of last year. With the key Christmas and summer trading periods ahead, management cautioned against extrapolating current momentum for the year ahead.
"We forecast 11% sales growth in FY26 led by continued strength in Glassons Australia," Forsyth Barr said.
The broker continued to view the "risk-reward" from Hallensteins as attractive and rated the stock as "outperform".
Stats NZ Csrd Spend for November
Apparel one of star segments - up 3.4% from October
Oz going well they say but I reckon NZ will make a meaningful contribution this financial year
Might need to revise my profit forecast lol
Forbar;
Hallenstein Glassons (HLG) provided a strong 18-week FY26 trading update with sales +13.8% on the prior year, accelerating from +12.9% in the seven-week trading update in September 2025. Sales growth has been driven by continued strength in Australia, with contributions from new store openings, store expansions, and refurbishments completed in the last year. While the NZ operating backdrop remains challenging, both businesses are trading ahead of last year. With the key Christmas and summer trading periods ahead, management cautioned against extrapolating current momentum for the year ahead. We forecast c.11% sales growth in FY26 led by continued strength in Glassons Australia. Trading on a 12-month forward PE of c.11x, a partially imputed FY26 cash yield of 7.8%, and a solid runway for measured growth in Australia (c.13% EPS CAGR from FY25 to FY28), we continue to view the risk-reward as attractive. OUTPERFORM.
Just putting some more meat on the bones of that report Forsyth Barr are forecasting as follows:-
FY26 EPS 80.9 CPS, DPS 69.0 CPS 42% imputation level, gross yield 8.4% PE 11.8
FY27 EPS 87.9 CPS DPS 74.5 CPS 39% imputation level, gross yield 9.0% PE 10.9
FY28 EPS 94.8 CPS DPS 80.5 CPS 37% imputation level, gross yield 9.6% PE 10.1
Price target is $11.75. If we get there one year hence HLG will still be on a forward PE of less than 12 with 22% forecasted EPS growth this year. I really do think the prospect of some multiple expansion is VERY good and definitely warranted with their excellent track record. A forward PE similar to Turners could see HLG @ $14 this time next year.
James Glassons address at the annual meeting on Wednesday. Words almost fail me. Suffice to say I am exceptionally happy with the very prudent way he's very carefully managing and growing the business.
Disc: I bought a few more on the open at $9.93 today as I continue to believe the metrics are compelling at this level.
Just had a look at HLG SP over the years. Maximas seem to appear roughly every 3 years (give or take one), and than it goes down again. Last big upturn ... and yes, it was a big one ... started in 2024.
So - statistically another year before things turn?
On the other hand ... SP rarely went up more than doubling its starting price from the previous baisse (though, after Covid it was nearly 3 times) ... and this (doubling) is sort of where we are now.
But hey, things are beautiful and exits are wide open, are they?
Anyway - well run company, very limited share market (and it wouldn't matter how often they split the share to change this), and selling fashion is cyclical.
Enjoy the ride ...
Glassons Au growth since 2017 has been a complete game changer for the company. A good analogy is with Turners. There was the no growth Turners before the brilliance of the Tina marketing campaign and the growth company after it. I am happy to concede HLG was a no growth cyclical company with the vast majority of its sales in N.Z. up until 2016 and then along came the push for Glasson's Au growth and its been a complete game changer which continues to have an enormous runway for growth in the decades ahead. Rebase the start point of your graph to when Glassons Au growth started in earnest in 2017 under James Glassons superb leadership and ignore the wild gyrations in the share prices Covid caused most companies and the picture tells a very different story, one of very satisfying share price appreciation with fluctuations over and under the steady uptrend. I'm no TA expert so won't try and present a graph that illustrates my point.
The growth in Glassons Au sales from circa $40m 9 years ago to circa $300m in FY26 tells a very different fundamental version of events than you and your lizard friend are seeing but hey. each to their own way of looking at things, you guys stick with your way of looking at things and and I will stick to my way of interpreting the data which has proven to be extremely lucrative with HLG since late 2016.
Here's one for HLG holders Basil...... HLG having a great run.
Nice to compare it against IFT over the last 10yrs. This just depicts SP gains..... throw in divvies and HLG probably outperforming IFT.
Thanks Left Field, very interesting chart. HLG has paid the following dividends sicne I bought in late 2016 at $2.70.
2017 31.5 cps
2018 44 cps
2019 44 cps
2020 39 cps
2021 38 cps
2022 42 cps
2023 48 cps
2024 50.5 cps
2025 55 cps
Total $3.92 in dividends and my original capital invested repaid nearly 1.5 times over already.
So yes, add 145% to that graph for HLG performance and it would have well and truly outperformed IFT over that timeframe.
In fact HLG has generated returns of $7.30 in capital gains and $3.92 in dividends, total $11.22, and is now worth more than 5 times your money over that 9 year timeframe. Quite a lot more for those prudent investors who managed their risk well and who sold out just before Covid hit and bought back shortly thereafter for a lot lower price. Its not just the deeply impressive track record that I find so satisfying, its the superb and very prudent management and the huge runway for growth ahead and all on compelling metrics that makes me so enthusiastic about the future. A LOT of value creation to come for shareholders over the next 10 years.
My goodness what an end to the week. 90cps of capital growth in a couple of days plus a nice dividend.
Quote from: Dolcile on Dec 12, 2025, 04:50 PMMy goodness what an end to the week. 90cps of capital growth in a couple of days plus a nice dividend.
10% gain in 2 days on those extra shares we bought at the open on Wednesday :-[ And SP back to its all time high on the same day the dividend is paid, how cool is that ! Aside from the really compelling FA case, the TA looks really good too with it very quickly rebounding after going ex divvy to its all time high. If I've learned one super important thing over the years its this. When the fundamentals are truly compelling and you have 100% confidence in management and your thesis is supported by strong TA,...make sure you don't muck about with half sized measures in terms of the size of your stake.
A great week with HLG.
I'm happy with the (unrealised) capital gain and my travel agent will be very happy with the dividend. Italy, Greece and Croatia next year! (Thanks for the tip Basil, but Switzerland will have to wait till later.)
Quote from: Pierre on Dec 12, 2025, 05:40 PMA great week with HLG.
I'm happy with the (unrealised) capital gain and my travel agent will be very happy with the dividend. Italy, Greece and Croatia next year! (Thanks for the tip Basil, but Switzerland will have to wait till later.)
If you frequent Bali, but haven't been to Nusa Lembongan (the small island slightly adjacent to Denpasar) I highly recommend it. I first went there 20 years ago when I was travelling around Indo for a few months, and have been back approx every 5 years since. Love indo. Satu Lagi!
Quote from: BlackPeter on Dec 12, 2025, 12:33 PMJust had a look at HLG SP over the years. Maximas seem to appear roughly every 3 years (give or take one), and than it goes down again. Last big upturn ... and yes, it was a big one ... started in 2024.
So - statistically another year before things turn?
On the other hand ... SP rarely went up more than doubling its starting price from the previous baisse (though, after Covid it was nearly 3 times) ... and this (doubling) is sort of where we are now.
But hey, things are beautiful and exits are wide open, are they?
Anyway - well run company, very limited share market (and it wouldn't matter how often they split the share to change this), and selling fashion is cyclical.
Enjoy the ride ...
Nice chart Peter
Maybe it is cyclical but I'd say it's
cycling upwards exponentiallySounds cool eh.
Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 13, 2025, 09:40 AMNice chart Peter
Maybe it is cyclical but I'd say it's cycling upwards exponentially
Sounds cool eh.
I agree with your thoughts which are also in line with Forsyth Barr that FY26 EPS is going to be about 80-81 cps, an increase of approx 22% but you never know with the operational leverage they have, we might be surprised. 2018, (after James Glasson was appointed as Glassons Au CEO on 6 /10/2017), was a good example of how profit can grow a LOT faster than sales with excellent sales growth of 16.2% that translated into massive EPS growth of 58.4% https://www.hallensteinglasson.co.nz/annual-report/2018 We'll see, I'll be very content if they achieve 22% EPS growth and turnover exceeds $520m. Rome wasn't built in a day.
The latest update from Forbar has this headline
Hallenstein Glasson
Growing in Style.I think that sums it up perfectly.
Share price cycling upwards exponentially essentially means that when the share price goes over 12 bucks and sentiment temporarily changes the share price will only fall back to say $10.50 before cycling upwards again
So 10 bucks at the moment seems more than OK to me
$12.50-$13.00 this time next year is my call and about 65-70 cps, (Forsyth Barr reckon 69 cps) in dividends in 2026 as well.
Quote from: Ferg on Dec 10, 2025, 11:03 AMOne shareholder took issue with the way the Chairman addressed female Directors & Management versus males.....something he needs to think about...... ::)
Warren made it into the 'general frippery' weekly column in BusinessDesk
Maybe time for the old fuddy duddy to stand down.
Hallenstein Glasson's AGM at Christchurch's Rydges Latimer was ticking along nicely on Wednesday morning.
Sales were up for the first 18 weeks of the year, the mood was warm, and everything had that familiar, slightly self-congratulatory AGM glow.
Then shareholder Joanne stood up. Clad in a blue shirt and glasses, she didn't look like a sniper, but when question time rolled around, her shot was lethal.
"Mine's more of a comment than a question. And I guess I'm thinking particularly for people looking online and thinking about investing ... I wonder if you're aware that in the introductions, every male was given his surname, and many of the women were not."
Chair Warren Bell reacted quickly, supplying the missing surnames, first one female panellist, then another, and eventually all of them, like a man mentally editing next year's runsheet in real time.
Joanne, however, wasn't finished.
"And in terms of your executive team, it's not so much knowing exactly their name because we can look that up. "But it's often a reflection of the place of women when men's surnames are always given, and women's are not.
"I just wonder if it's something you might want to reflect on for further public presentations."
Some AGMs are remembered for their forward-looking guidance announcements; this one may be remembered for the "mine's more of a comment than a question" that turned into a live gender-equity audit.
I think women's revenge was well served by Joanne Appleyard who was quick to point out she left RYM board before the men buggered it.
Quote from: lorraina on Dec 14, 2025, 09:44 AMI think women's revenge was well served by Joanne Appleyard who was quick to point out she left RYM board before the men buggered it.
Your Joanne only got 82% support from shareholders to be re-elected
Resolution 3.1: To elect Peter Steenson as a Director.
Resolution 3.1 passed by the shareholders following a poll. Votes for 24,169,798 (99.87%), votes against 31,348 (0.13%). Total Votes 24,201,146.
Resolution 3.2: To re-elect Malcolm Ford as a Director.
Resolution 3.2 passed by the shareholders following a poll. Votes for 19,726,291 (81.44%), votes against 4,495,085 (18.56%). Total Votes 24,221,376.
Resolution 3.3: To re-elect Joanne Appleyard as a Director.
Resolution 3.3 passed by the shareholders following a poll. Votes for 19,956,550 (82.39%), votes against 4,265,061 (17.61%). Total Votes 24,221,611.
I spoke with Peter Steenson before the meeting.I am sure he is an excellent addition to the board.
I also think Malcolm Ford and Joanne Appleyard are adding a lot of sage advice/experience to the board.
Both would be difficult to replace as they are very well versed it their respective fields.
I note NZSA's comments on the directors standing for reeclection.
Resolutions
1. To elect Peter Steenson as a Director.
Peter Steenson was appointed to the Board 13 August 2025 and is therefore required to offer himself for election. He was formerly employed by EY for over 30 years. Peter has expertise in accounting, finance and tax matters particularly relating to property, construction, and financing. In his role at EY Peter provided a full range of reporting, financial, tax and strategic advice to domestic and international businesses. Peter is a Fellow Chartered Accountant (FCA) of Chartered Accountants Australia and New Zealand (CAANZ) and holds a Master of Commerce in Economics (M. Com.Hons) and a Bachelor of Commerce (B. Com), majoring in both Accounting and Economics, from the University of Canterbury.
We will vote undirected proxies IN FAVOUR of this resolution.
2. To re-elect Malcolm Ford as a Director.
Malcolm Ford was appointed to the Board in June 2010. His background includes 20 years' experience in direct sourcing, particularly in Asia. He also has experience in brand management across wholesale and retail markets.
We refer to our comments above under Board Independence and Board Composition above. NZSA believes the Board is too large for the size of the company, with a significant proportion of long-serving Directors. We believe the Board requires further refreshment and renewal. Specifically in the case of Malcolm Ford, while we appreciate the company's efforts to disclose its rationale as regards his independence status, we struggle to agree with that assessment.
Nonetheless, we note his experience in relation to procurement and/or sourcing from the limited disclosure that has been provided. We believe that these functional skills are highly relevant for HLG's governance.
On this basis, we will reluctantly vote undirected proxies IN FAVOUR of this resolution. We remain concerned as to the company's Board succession plan and the extent of underlying board independence.
3. To re-elect Joanne (Jo) Appleyard as a Director.
Jo Appleyard was appointed to the Board in November 2022. She is a partner at Anderson Lloyd and is a senior practitioner with over 30 years' experience. Jo specialises in employment, commercial and resource management law. Jo was a member of the NZ Markets Disciplinary Tribunal between 2011 and 2020.
We will vote undirected proxies IN FAVOUR of this resolution.
Did she need to? Of the 3 directors seeking re-election, I was most impressed with what she said. I don't understand the animosity towards her and the votes against her....is this related to her time at Ryman?
Edit: my bad Basil. I see you are referring to Joanne the activist shareholder, not Joanne Appleby the Director. But I still wonder why 20% voted against her.
Quote from: Ferg on Dec 14, 2025, 03:09 PMDid she need to? Of the 3 directors seeking re-election, I was most impressed with what she said. I don't understand the animosity towards her and the votes against her....is this related to her time at Ryman?
Edit: my bad Basil. I see you are referring to Joanne the activist shareholder, not Joanne Appleby the Director. But I still wonder why 20% voted against her.
I doubt shareholder opprobrium was due to her Ryman past. Ford received very similar numbers to her and he has no such taint. It's clearly a signal of some sort though.
Basil mentioned 'operational leverage' ... ie doing lots more with a little more
NPAT as % Sales is one way of measuring this
HLG used to consistently achieve about 10% profit margin. This fell to 7.3% in F22 but has slowly crept back up to 8.4% in F25
Operational leverage is likely from here on in. Doing good things distribution wise and NZ businesses should see sales growth this year.
If they got back to 10% profit margin that's about $52m in F26 or EP about 85 cents
Seems that all analyst forecasts and what Basil is expecting is very much on the cards
Things going well I reckon
Hay Basil - HLG tax rates last 2 years been 32.4% in F25 33.8% in F24
F24 saw the property depreciation changes impact. F25 saw a 'prior year adjustment'
If F26 saw a more normalised tax rate we could see a $2m odd more on bottom line
Wishful thinking or some substance to this thinking. What you think
Fair comments winner. Keep in mind the USD cross-rates impact their buy prices so the weakness in the past 12 months won't help if that was the basis for forward cover, but it looks like rates are on the turn:
https://www.xe.com/en-nz/currencycharts/?from=AUD&to=USD&view=2Y
https://www.xe.com/en-nz/currencycharts/?from=NZD&to=USD&view=2Y
Quote from: Ferg on Dec 15, 2025, 12:04 PMFair comments winner. Keep in mind the USD cross-rates impact their buy prices so the weakness in the past 12 months won't help if that was the basis for forward cover, but it looks like rates are on the turn:
https://www.xe.com/en-nz/currencycharts/?from=AUD&to=USD&view=2Y
https://www.xe.com/en-nz/currencycharts/?from=NZD&to=USD&view=2Y
NZD v AUD good for bringing back / translating Glassons AU profits to NZ
Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 15, 2025, 11:13 AMHay Basil - HLG tax rates last 2 years been 32.4% in F25 33.8% in F24
F24 saw the property depreciation changes impact. F25 saw a 'prior year adjustment'
If F26 saw a more normalised tax rate we could see a $2m odd more on bottom line
Wishful thinking or some substance to this thinking. What you think
Yes I think there is substance to that and am expecting a tax rate of about 29.3% this year, (28% here and 30% in Australia with more profit in Australia). Glassons Au sales could be ~ $300m this year !
KPG shareholders, (I hold a considerable number) will be pleased to know on my visit to Lynnmall this morning the mall was very busy. The newly refurbished and modernized Hallenstein store was a MASSIVE step up from how it was presented before, much brighter and more upmarket and was very busy. The recently refurbished and expanded Glassons store also looked really classy and light and bright and was really pumping with customers.
P.S. We all know the Glassons Au division with its incredible growth over the last 9 years is the rock star part of the business but after my mall visit this morning I am cautiously optimistic that Hallensteins can make a meaningful recovery and make decent coin for the group going forward, (yes the refurbished store was that impressive !). I also took heart from comments at the AGM last week that both Hallensteins N.Z. and Glassons N.Z. are ahead of where they were this time last year, (no easy feat considering the depths of the recession this year in N.Z.)..
Gosh, if Hallensteins recovers its margins and gains some decent sales volume and the N.Z. economy claws its way out of recession, together with very strong ongoing growth with Glassons Au and some Glassons N.Z. growth, this stock could really fly over the next few years. Metrics look truly compelling to me.
HLG, TRA and TWR are my top three highest conviction picks for 2026. My opinion is backed up with large positions in all 3.
Agree Basil. I'm looking for an opportunity to get some more HLG - hoping that with some dry powder I get an opportunity over the next few days.
Consumer confidence hits its highest level in 2025 https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/consumer-confidence-lifts-to-highest-level-in-2025/U6WTO4AXZFFCPIJLJAPKFUWKLQ/
Interesting and very relevant to HLG, there's quite a marked bifurcation in the confidence level's amongst various age groups.
Excerpt: Rendall said confidence amongst younger generations was "relatively buoyant" in comparison to older New Zealanders.
Confidence for those aged 18-29 lifted 14.4 points to 108.2 in the December quarter. For those aged 30-49, confidence rose 9.5 points to 101.
Those aged 50+ saw confidence increase by just 1.8 points to 90.8.
It would seem that HLG, with their target market of 13-30 year old's are best placed of any of the retailers to enjoy the improving economic conditions in 2026. On the other hand the boomers aged 50+ remain quite negative. My theory behind this is its quite possibly a reflection of the negative wealth effect of seeing the value of their home decrease by 31% in inflation adjusted terms over the last 4 years and also the much lower investment returns they are getting on their term deposits..
A PHD university Bio chemist i know did not even known the GFC add occurred.. many people in the country will not know anything about recession except that they dont get paid as much... they accept the system they live in...
Over 60's will probably be most negative as they understand where the world is heading....
But one wants the younger generation to have hope and if they just follow TIK TOK beach parties well....
Summer clothing sales and summer days at the beach!!!
what time of year are we at again??? It summer yet again in AUS and NZ Land of the long white cloud....
Expect even greater confidence to show up end of March early April...
GO Retail....
Trades in HLG today
9.69
1
19-Dec-2025 13:37
$9.83
728
19-Dec-2025 12:17
$9.83
1,000
19-Dec-2025 12:16
$9.65
1
19-Dec-2025 11:03
$9.65
1
19-Dec-2025 11:02
$9.63
330
19-Dec-2025 09:59
Yet investDirect show 9.63 in watchlists and portfolio.
That bizarre and just confirming mine is also showing in my portfolio at $9.63. Can you please flick them a message and ask what's going on ?
Fixed within 60secs of emailing them.
Strangely its still showing in my portfolio at $9.63
The HLG page is now correct but the portfolio/watchlists probably won't change until the next update is around 20 minutes I guess
Thanks 777 - good work.
Both last night and again tonight there has been a sell off at about 20c lower than what they have been trading at during the day. They are not so large amounts that they could not have been disposed at during the day.
Only explanation I can think of is that it was December quarter NZX50 rebalancing this week, especially today. Quite a few stocks in the NZX50 had unusual share price movements especially in the last 15 minutes of the price match process today. I revalue my listed portfolio weekly and went with VWAP prices today due to closing price volatility.
You are no doubt correct and why it might explain my order for TWR at 1.99 got thru at 1.98 as part of the 100,000 odd at 5pm.
Free Trade Agreement with India
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/economy/nz-strikes-comprehensive-free-trade-agreement-with-india/IJA57TACQZASFCX64S2EEDSSOU/
Labour are talking about supporting this despite N.Z. First opposition.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/watch-nz-agrees-trade-deal-with-india/VQY7WW3DTZEYLCZPQXGP6I3CGA/
Warren Bell mentioned in the annual meeting that a FTA with India would be very helpful.
Haldenstein's in particular needs to sheet those future potential duty savings home with keeping prices the same and banking the extra margin.
Next dividend due mid April.
From James's AGM presentation
Strengthening our supply chain remains a core priority. Our sourcing strategy continues to centre around
India, China, and Bangladesh, and we remain optimistic about the ongoing potential of these regions. If the
New Zealand government can secure an Indian Free Trade Agreement, that would of course be
advantageous, particularly as we continue to manage margins.
Quite right it was James that said that, thanks Lorriana. Just out of curiosity, I see he also said shortly after that "This year we also made strong progress in our warehouse relocation project. I want to acknowledge the work of Sam Glasson and Chris Reid, whose leadership has been much appreciated."
What do we know about Sam ? Was he at the annual meeting ? Did you get a chance to meet him and / or Tim and James ? Any interesting anecdotes from discussions to share ?
I missed talking to him this year,however I sat next to him at last year's agm.
Now I am not sure this was mentioned before,at or after the meeting,but I think I heard they send "Sam to talk to Aussie Malls' management".[tough talker].
I am not sure who to ask, but I would love HLG to have a video of their new distribution centre's stock picking system at next year's agm..
In hindsight I can not reconcile why 2 directors received a number of votes against them being reappointed to the board.
I have never spoken to Tim Glasson.
I walked past my local Hallenstien and Glassons stores today and they were filled with shoppers.
Quote from: Dolcile on Dec 24, 2025, 02:14 PMI walked past my local Hallenstien and Glassons stores today and they were filled with shoppers.
You would hope so given its the day before Xmas
According to one news report yesterday we hit a 12 year low of nearly NZ$1.17 = A$1.00. I'm forecasting Australia to be approx 60% of group sales this year so the translation of those profits at better exchange rates could be a decent tailwind.
Quote from: Basil on Jan 08, 2026, 07:46 AMAccording to one news report yesterday we hit a 12 year low of nearly NZ$1.17 = A$1.00. I'm forecasting Australia to be approx 60% of group sales this year so the translation of those profits at better exchange rates could be a decent tailwind.
And the AUD is recovering nicely against the USD which will help Glassons AU purchasing power / COGS.
I've got about a month or so before some funds are available to get some, just trickle along until then please!
Last 3 years the first half trading update and half year forecast was released on 28 Feb, 22 Feb and 17 Feb.
November Monthly Household Spending Indicator from ABS showed clothing spend up strongly in Oct and Nov
Seems Glassons sales were much higher .....good share gains methinks
Retail environment looking good over the Tasman
Quote from: Basil on Dec 12, 2025, 12:02 PMJust putting some more meat on the bones of that report Forsyth Barr are forecasting as follows:-
FY26 EPS 80.9 CPS, DPS 69.0 CPS 42% imputation level, gross yield 8.4% 7.8% PE 11.8 12.42
FY27 EPS 87.9 CPS DPS 74.5 CPS 39% imputation level, gross yield 9.0% 8.3% PE 10.9 11.4
FY28 EPS 94.8 CPS DPS 80.5 CPS 37% imputation level, gross yield 9.6% 8.9% PE 10.1 10.6
Price target is $11.75. If we get there one year hence HLG will still be on a forward PE of less than 12 with 22% forecasted EPS growth this year. I really do think the prospect of some multiple expansion is VERY good and definitely warranted with their excellent track record. A forward PE similar to Turners could see HLG @ $14 this time next year.
James Glassons address at the annual meeting on Wednesday. Words almost fail me. Suffice to say I am exceptionally happy with the very prudent way he's very carefully managing and growing the business.
Disc: I bought a few more on the open at $9.93 today as I continue to believe the metrics are compelling at this level.
I haven't revisited the metrics for a month so I thought it might be worth updating them for today's closing price of
$10.05 Gross Yield and PE updated in
blue detailed above. Still Australasia's cheapest GARP stock in my opinion with a stellar track record of growth in the last 9 years and ~ 60% of sales forecast for FY26 are in Australia. CAGR in EPS last 5 years 9% Disc: My #1 investment position ~ 20% portfolio allocation. Not concerned by the naysayers...been dealing with heaps of them for the last decade since the shares were $2.70. For many years this company had no analyst coverage and I did my own analysis and still do. For what its worth I am quite comfortable with Forsyth Barr's EPS but I think the dividends will be slightly lower than they're forecasting and am not concerned by that.
Jarden's picks for 2026 from Businessdesk. Always a good thing to think ahead. a FY27 PE of 11.4 and gross yield of 8.3% is incredible value for a company with a proven history of growing earnings like HLG has. Excellent management, no debt and best of all, the company is run in a very careful and prudent way. I make no secret of the fact that I also really admire how Summerset has been run over the years but the yield does not meet my criteria as a semi retiree investor investing for income and growth. For those who don't need income I feel that's also a real opportunity for long term gains.
QuoteJarden's picks For those wanting to have a tilt at riding retail or cyclical stocks up as the economy improves, the broking houses have put out their picks for 2026. Jarden released its tips for the year ahead and called out clothing retailer Hallenstein Glassons, the oft-maligned Fletcher Building, Vulcan Steel, Summerset, Mainfreight, SkyCity, Heartland Group and NZME – publisher of BusinessDesk. The report said Hallenstein Glassons, Mainfreight and retirement village operator Summerset are "proven compounders" with value. At the same time, NZME and Vulcan Steel are well-managed with cycle exposure and have their performance linked to the NZ economy. The rest are "previously problematic turnarounds" in Fletcher, SkyCity and Heartland. This report called out some economic tailwinds that could boost the NZX. Consumer spending is set to rise. Multiple sectors should drive gross Domestic Product growth, home prices could be pushed higher alongside increased lending, and inflation risk is low due to spare capacity in the economy. The Jarden analysts recommend keeping an eye on the February reporting season, the housing market, and fiscal policy going into the election.
shush Basil...I'm trying to buy more on the cheap ;D
Managed to get another small parcel today at $8.70. Maybe some more tomorrow with the TWR dividend.
Please do not do that.
Gave me high blood pressure...lol
$9.70. surely ?
Haha yes, sorry. $9.70 !
Popplewell back doing consultancy work fot HLG so no an Independent Director
Must be duw to get Di Humphries back again to add more spice to Glassons ... after all Di made Glassons what it is today
HLG rave about their Instagram exposure - like 722k followers etc etc
Many of the metrics that marketers chase are not designed to serve the brand. They're designed to serve the platforms that provide those metrics but they are influencing the behaviour of marketers. There's a danger dependence on such metrics can harm the brand itself.
This has become known as a phenomenon called "technoplasmosis."
An old saying in marketing is "Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted counts."
Maybe it's this fear of technoplasmosis that's seen Popplewell coming back and doing some consultancy work ... just to see that Glassons and Hallensteins don't get carried away with modern technology and just do what the brands have done well for over 100 years
Popplewell back doing stuff for HLG
One pundit says maybe another Hucci type stuff up ....Hucci being Glassons Gucci look alike shirt
I think this is the third time they've broken above $10. Third time lucky and this time it sticks or is it back into the late $9's for a while longer ? Time will tell. Cheapest GARP stock in Australasia I reckon. I added even more yesterday. Half year guidance should be out in late February and I'm looking forward to a record half year result and also a record high interim dividend in April.
Good buying Basil. Sitting at a PEG ratio of about 1 strikes me as good value.
Hope HLG doing a lot of this stuff and getting their 'agents' working flat out. Could be left behind if they ignore AI
Maybe 5hats what Popplewell in charge off lol
The AI First Fashion Company
https://www.bcg.com/assets/2025/executive-perspectives-ai-first-fashion-and-luxury-24nov.pdf
HLG share5 price $10.00 at moment
HANG IN THERE BABY .....stay above $10.00 please
Quote from: winner (n) on Feb 10, 2026, 11:53 AMHLG share5 price $10.00 at moment
HANG IN THERE BABY .....stay above $10.00 please
You can add "mind reader" to your list of talents, I was just thinking the same thing lol. If they had a decent investor day and clearly articulated their growth strategy over the next 5-10 years like Turners are they might also be on a forward PE of 16 and we'd be saying hang in there baby and stay above $13.
You know,I know,they know it is going to happen,so why bother.?....lol
There's a combined 41% earnings growth expected over the next 3 years to FY28 so even if HLG stays on the same ridiculously low PE ratio its currently on, the share price should grow to ~ $14 over the next 3 years and of course there's the ~ 8% gross dividend yield to enjoy while we wait but I would argue that some moderate PE expansion is long overdue for this superb company so $15+ in the next 3 years is not out of the question.
https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HALLENSTEIN-GLASSON-HOLDI-6495564/finances/
We need one of those cool charts from Ferg .... The one that shows the share price at different PEs
Basil, Forbar say the 12 month forward weighted PE for the New Zealand market is currently 25.3x
Jeez what would HLG if they average instead of below average
Or even a PE of 22 which is the median
No reason it couldn't be trading on the same PE as Briscoes which has averaged 20 times lately.
20 times EPS of an estimate of $1 in FY29 means with earnings growth and PE expansion three years hence the share price could potentially double and be $20 + 8% and rising dividends along the way.
Hey Winner, remember when we first bought in back in August 2016 at $2.70 and people thought we were crazy. Gosh its basically quadrupled since then so maybe doubling in the next 3-4 years is not out of the question ? Just over 12 times FY26 earnings is stupidly cheap for a proven growth compounder like HLG with an enormous runway for growth in Australia. There's so much to like about how well the company is managed, also not forgetting there's no debt and ~ $60m, ($1 per share) in cash on the balance sheet too.
Hey Basil, you keep mentioning Briscoes and HLG and sort of asking why BGR has a much higher PE
You might find this chart will frustrate you further lol
Screenshot 2026-02-11 111242.png
Here you go folks:
HGL_PER_Jan2026 - Copy.JPG
and another invention of mine:
HGL_Sentiment_Jan2026 - Copy.JPG
And the drivers of the SP change over the past 10 years:
HLG-drivers-2025 - Copy.JPG
Whoops - picked up the wrong sentiment graph - here it is up to Jan '26:
HGL_Sentiment_Jan2026-v2 - Copy.JPG
Quote from: Ferg on Feb 11, 2026, 11:21 AMHere you go folks:
HGL_PER_Jan2026 - Copy.JPG
...
Interesting chart. SP never reached the 16, but likes to move back towards the 8 when it was close to the highs before. Time to drop below the medium again?
But for sure, this time it will be different ...
BP: the bands* of 8 and 16 were my choosing. I try to pick values that the SP oscillates between. If I tighten the bands up it could in theory be a buy/sell signal.
The other thing to consider is that with a rising share price a company can reverse into it's P/E ratio by delivering EPS growth. If they don't then history tells us a high P/E stock will have its SP savaged by Mr Market.
*By the way the bands are a blend of past and future earnings (except for the latest periods which are all historical). So half way through the reporting cycle the band will be based on half the prior EPS and half of the next EPS.
Many thanks Ferg. Applying my deep value GARP screening filter no growth PE of 8.5 + 1 extra PE for each 1% CAGR = 8.5, the forward PE should be 17 times FY26 EPS (consensus forecast of 78.07 cps) = $13.27. I am firmly of the view this is the best value GARP stock on the NZX at only 12.8 times FY26 EPS.
Good stuff Ferg - well done
1H FY26 trading update preview for announcement sometime later this month. I am hoping for gross sales of $270-275m up 13.5%
Net Profit of $24-25m up 15%
1H dividend to be announced towards the end of March with the result, hoping for 30 cps up 22% (noting the record level of cash on hand at balance date and their ability to easily pay 30 cps in dividends from 40+ cps in earnings). Lets see how we go.
Quote from: Basil on Feb 16, 2026, 10:43 AM1H FY26 trading update preview for announcement sometime later this month. I am hoping for gross sales of $270-275m up 13.5%
Net Profit of $24-25m up 15%
1H dividend to be announced towards the end of March with the result, hoping for 30 cps up 22% (noting the record level of cash on hand at balance date and their ability to easily pay 30 cps in dividends from 40+ cps in earnings). Lets see how we go.
Hey midpoint of your $270m-$275m sales guess is clsoe to my trusty seasonality model number of $273.2
We'll see eh
Uni in OZ came out with a great H1 result
Sales up 14% - GM expansion ---NPAT up 22% on last year
Ans sales still growing double digit into H2
Market likes the UNI result. Hope we see a similar rerate when HLG trading update is announced on or before 27 Feb. UNI on a trailing PE of 27, HLG trailing PE 15 with approx 60% of their sales in Aust...hmmm.
Quote from: Basil on Feb 19, 2026, 02:21 PMMarket likes the UNI result. Hope we see a similar rerate when HLG trading update is announced on or before 27 Feb. UNI on a trailing PE of 27, HLG trailing PE 15 with approx 60% of their sales in Aust...hmmm.
Jeez PE 27 - that's some love
Quote from: winner (n) on Feb 19, 2026, 04:30 PMJeez PE 27 - that's some love
Forward PE for UNI about 22 but HLG screams "cheep" louder than a cage full of budgies on a forward PE of only 12.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/retail-spending-sees-solid-rise-in-december-quarter/HMRSZD2ODNBKLGRO2XKFZUQFGE/
Good sign for a gradually recovering N.Z. economy. Looking forward to HLG's trading update later this week.
MKTUPDTE: HLG: Trading Update and Profit Forecast
27 February 2026 Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Limited Trading Update
and Profit Forecast
The Company advises that unaudited total Group sales
for the six-month period ended 1 February 2026 were $275.2 million, an
increase of 14.6% on the prior corresponding period ($240.0 million).
Group unaudited net profit before tax (NPBT) is expected to be in the range
of $39.3 million to $39.8 million, which is up +32.1% on the prior year
result ($29.9 million). The balance sheet for the Group remains strong
and stock levels continue to be well controlled. A full announcement with
six months' financial statements including a dividend declaration will be
released to the market on 27 March 2026.
Superb result.
I think we can expect a divvie of at least 30cps, possibly a bit more!
Crickey !! That's well and truly blown my expectations out of the water. What a stunning trading update !
Just putting some numbers around this. At the mid point of Net Profit before tax forecast of $39.55m and assuming that the tax rate normalises to about 29.2% (60% Aussie tax at 30% 40% N.Z. tax at 28%), that's $28m Net Profit after tax and a stunning first half EPS of ~ 47 cps !
I've raised my outlook for FY26 to EPS of 90 cps putting HLG on a foreword PE for FY26, (with 8 months of the financial year gone already) of only 10.9 at $9.77.
That seems completely ridiculous for a company no debt, about $1 per share in cash in the bank with a 10 year CAGR of 8.5% that's currently growing EPS at 32% at the very early stages of a retail recovery. With a vast runway for growth in Australia and a well proven track record of growth, trading on profoundly compelling metrics, with well proven management and systems, this looks like an outstanding opportunity to me for those not already well positioned.
Quote from: winner (n) on Feb 16, 2026, 12:15 PMHey midpoint of your $270m-$275m sales guess is clsoe to my trusty seasonality model number of $273.2
We'll see eh
We were a bit conservative eh --- but pretty spot on
Quote from: winner (n) on Feb 27, 2026, 09:27 AMWe were a bit conservative eh --- but pretty spot on
We got the top line very close mate but the bottom line has far exceeded my expectations. Currency wasn't especially helpful in that half, more favorable now, so there must have been a very strong recovery in N.Z. profitability which on the face of it is very encouraging for the future level of imputation credits.
An immediate surge in the SP. $10+ should hold after this morning's news!
dammit, i was going to buy a few more yesterday around the $9.72 mark but couldn't get the funds across to my brokerage account quick enough.
Outstanding result
Quote from: Basil on Feb 27, 2026, 09:31 AMWe got the top line very close mate but the bottom line has far exceeded my expectations. Currency wasn't especially helpful in that half, more favorable now, so there must have been a very strong recovery in N.Z. profitability which on the face of it is very encouraging for the future level of imputation credits.
NZD has really tanked against the AUD in the last month. Let's see if this is going to be the new way forward... Hasn't been this low since the early 2010s after a decade > 90c.
Very impressive guidance upgrade - added to holding at market opening this morning.
Quote from: alkebab on Feb 27, 2026, 10:04 AMNZD has really tanked against the AUD in the last month. Let's see if this is going to be the new way forward... Hasn't been this low since the early 2010s after a decade > 90c.
Quite right mate. If the Kiwi Aussie cross rate stays around these level's of $1.19 that's going to be very helpful with translating across Australian profits which at my best guess are currently running around 60% of group profit but could be as much as 70-75% 5 years from now. I added a few more at the open this morning.
Quote from: Pierre on Feb 27, 2026, 09:58 AMAn immediate surge in the SP. $10+ should hold after this morning's news!
If it doesn't I'm wide open to the prospect of buying more.
The chart has looked like an ascending triangle since late November so I bought a bit over the last 2 weeks, hopefully on the dip.
Not sure how many people realise this but EPS was 22.93 cps in 2016 (when I first bought into HLG)
https://www.hallensteinglasson.co.nz/annual-report/2016
As mentioned above, I think they're on track for EPS of 90 cps this year.
That's a 10 year EPS CAGR of 14.65% ! and the forward PE is only 11. PEG ratio is only 0.75 based, (anything less than 1 is exceptional value) on 10 year CAGR and a PEG ratio of only 0.34 on the current EPS growth @ 32%.
HLG, ask me how I feel about this result lol - Swooshing away all the negativity for the weekend. https://www.youtube.com/shorts/31B70wHE-yU
Sales on an annual basis (rolling 2 half year numbers) broken through the 1/2 billion dollar mark
Momentum seems to be the buzz word of the year .... with the current momentum HLG have I don't think it'll take another 100 years (or whatever) to do the next 1/2 billion
Quote from: Basil on Feb 27, 2026, 10:27 AMNot sure how many people realise this but EPS was 22.93 cps in 2016 (when I first bought into HLG)
https://www.hallensteinglasson.co.nz/annual-report/2016
As mentioned above, I think they're on track for EPS of 90 cps this year.
That's a 10 year EPS CAGR of 14.65% ! and the forward PE is only 11. PEG ratio is only 0.75 based, (anything less than 1 is exceptional value) on 10 year CAGR and a PEG ratio of only 0.34 on the current EPS growth @ 32%.
HLG, ask me how I feel about this result lol - Swooshing away all the negativity for the weekend. https://www.youtube.com/shorts/31B70wHE-yU
Funny I first bought in in 2016.
Great minds thinking alike or was I listening to you?
H1 NPAT % sales jsut over 10%
Getting back to where it was a few years ago
Average the last few years has been 8>7%
Quote from: Clearasmud on Feb 27, 2026, 12:36 PMFunny I first bought in in 2016.
Great minds thinking alike or was I listening to you?
Lets go with great minds think alike lol. I certainly made the yield case very clear back then. Was trading on a gross fully imputed yield of 15% back in August 2016 when it was $2.70. Back then it was a no growth company and I only ever bought it for the outstanding yield and never expected any growth. Its funny how things work out sometimes. EPS was 23 cps back then and on my modelling they're going to do circa 90 cps this year. Amazing growth story that's still not well understood or appreciated by Mr Market despite this being the oldest listed company on the NZX. Go figure...
Quote from: winner (n) on Feb 27, 2026, 12:33 PMSales on an annual basis (rolling 2 half year numbers) broken through the 1/2 billion dollar mark
Momentum seems to be the buzz word of the year .... with the current momentum HLG have I don't think it'll take another 100 years (or whatever) to do the next 1/2 billion
My modeling has them doubling sales to ~ $1 Billion in FY31, 70-75% of that in Australia. Huge runway for growth over there extending out at least 30 years.
Basil mentions the about $1 per share in cash in the bank .....about $60m
I love how HLG cut and paste this bit into updates - The balance sheet for the Group remains strong and stock levels continue to be well controlled.
Suppose that means seeing they are going gangbusters there's even more cash in the bank
I swear I'm not trying to pollute the forums with AI information but I just do find it interesting to see what it comes up with and what it latches on to when I feed it previous posts plus the latest financial statements. And of course nothing beats human analysis. Without human analysis, direction, and intuition the AI is essentially worthless. Anyway this is the last one that I'll post for a while since I'm keenly aware that this is meant to be a forum with discussion between human participants.
HLG at $10: BUY. Strongly.
I'm going to make the case plainly. The H1 FY26 result changes everything, and the market hasn't caught up yet.
The Number That Matters Most
H1 FY26 NPBT: $39.5 million.
Stop and absorb that. In the first half alone, HLG has generated 67.7% of the entire FY25 full-year profit. And this is the traditionally weaker half – the winter/autumn season, not the blockbuster Christmas/summer period.
The trajectory through the half was accelerating:
First 7 weeks (Sep report): sales +12.9%
First 18 weeks (AGM): sales +13.8%
Full H1 (26 weeks): sales +14.6%
Momentum was building, not fading. And the NPBT growth of +32.1% was more than double the sales growth, meaning margins are expanding rapidly. The H1 FY26 PBT margin was 14.3%, up from 12.5% in H1 FY25. That's 180 basis points of margin expansion in six months. Operating leverage is kicking in hard.
What FY26 Actually Looks Like
Everyone is still anchored to Forsyth Barr's pre-H1 forecast of 75.1c EPS. That number is stale. Here's what the data actually points to:
H1 FY26 NPBT: $39.5m (known)
H2 FY25 NPBT was: $28.5m
H2 includes the key Christmas/summer trading season. With NZ rate cuts flowing through, Australian consumer confidence at 3.5-year highs, competitor store closures handing Glassons customers and prime mall locations, and new stores annualising – a conservative 15% growth on H2 gives:
H2 FY26 NPBT: $32.8m
Full-year FY26 NPBT: ~$72.3m (vs $58.4m FY25 = +24%)
At the FY25 effective tax rate of 32.4%:
FY26 NPAT: ~$48.9m
FY26 EPS: ~82 cps
And honestly, 15% H2 growth might be conservative given H1 ran at +32%. Even if H2 only delivers +10% growth, you're looking at 78-79c EPS.
At $10, you're paying 12.2x genuinely achievable FY26 earnings that are growing north of 20%.
The Sum-of-Parts Slaps You in the Face
Let me value the pieces separately, because lumping everything together obscures where the value actually sits:
Glassons Australia
FY25 NPAT: $22.5m, growing 15-20% annually
FY26 estimated NPAT: ~$26-27m
Universal Store (UNI.ASX), the closest comparable, trades at 19x earnings
At 18x: $468-486m = $7.85-8.15 per HLG share
Glassons New Zealand
FY25 NPAT: $13.4m (up 25% on PCP as NZ recovers)
Mature but profitable, improving with rate cuts
At 12x: $161m = $2.70 per share
Hallensteins (NZ + AU)
FY25 NPAT: $3.3m (trough earnings in deep NZ recession)
Some optionality as NZ recovers and AU footprint expands
At 8x: $26m = $0.44 per share
Net Cash
$58.3m cash, zero debt
= $0.98 per share
Property
Investment property $3.0m + land/buildings at fair value $29.3m
Net of what's embedded in segments, call it ~$0.30 per share
Sum of Parts: $12.27 - $12.57 per share
The stock is at $10. That's a 20-25% discount to what the pieces are worth today, before any further growth.
Why the Market Is Underpricing This
1. NZX perception discount
The NZX still prices HLG as a New Zealand cyclical retailer. It isn't one anymore. 53% of sales and 59% of NPBT come from Glassons Australia. If this business were listed on the ASX with the same growth profile, it would trade at 16-18x forward earnings, not 12x. Briscoes – a purely domestic NZ retailer with flat to declining earnings – trades at 19x. That's absurd relative to HLG.
2. Liquidity discount
Thin trading means institutional investors can't build meaningful positions easily. Fiordland Moose said it took months to accumulate at $5.50-5.60. This structurally suppresses the PE. But the underlying business value is independent of how many shares trade daily.
3. The Hickman sell-down created a false narrative
The estate dumping ~500,000 shares (60% of daily volume) drove the price from $8.80 to $6.85 – a 22% crash that had nothing to do with fundamentals. The shares were absorbed, the overhang cleared, and the stock recovered. But the episode reinforced a "volatile, risky" perception that lingers.
4. Hallensteins drags the headline numbers
Hallensteins earned $3.3m NPAT on $107m sales. It's effectively dead weight. Strip it out and you have a $363m revenue business earning $36m+ NPAT with a growth rate of 20%+. That deserves a premium multiple, not a discount.
What Makes This Different From a Typical "It's Gone Up a Lot" Situation
Yes, the stock has risen from $6 to $10 – a 67% gain. Normally that would make me cautious. But consider:
FY24 EPS was 57.8c. FY26 EPS is tracking ~82c. That's 42% earnings growth in two years.
The stock is up 67% but earnings are up 42%, and the H1 FY26 result shows the growth rate is accelerating. The PE has expanded from ~10x to ~12x forward – that's a modest rerating for a company whose growth profile has fundamentally improved.
By FY28, at $10 you're paying 9.3x earnings for a company that will likely still be growing at double digits. And collecting 55-70c+ dividends along the way.
The Structural Growth Story Is Intact and Strengthening
The Glassons Australia growth engine has three gears, and all three are engaged:
Gear 1 – Same-store sales growth: ~10% in FY25 on top of multiple years of similar growth. Brand heat is real and sustained.
Gear 2 – New store openings: 2 stores opened in FY25. Management has signalled 2-5 per year. Post new warehouse (ready H2 FY26), the pace can accelerate. At ~NZ$6m sales per store and ~9% NPAT margin, each new store adds ~$540k to NPAT. Five stores/year = $2.7m incremental NPAT = 4.5c EPS.
Gear 3 – Competitor collapses: Mosaic Brands (Noni B, Rivers, Millers – 185 stores), plus other failures, are vacating prime mall locations. The Annual Report notes HLG is "exploring new store opportunities when the right opportunities arise" and capex commitments for store and distribution centre fitouts have nearly doubled to $1.86m.
The population-adjusted store opportunity:
NZ: 35 Glassons stores for 5.3m people = 6.6 per million
AU: 40 Glassons stores for 27m people = 1.5 per million
At just HALF NZ density: 89 stores (vs 40 today)
That's 49 more stores at $540k NPAT each = $26.5m incremental NPAT
That's an additional 44c per share in earnings from store rollout alone
Even at a glacial 3 stores/year, that's 16 years of visible growth runway. At 5/year, it's a decade.
The Insider Activity Seals It
From the General Disclosures in the Annual Report:
Tim Glasson sold 699,479 shares off-market on 27 June 2025 to family members at $7.72/share. This isn't selling because he's bearish – it's estate and succession planning.
James Glasson purchased 297,927 shares through his trust on the same date at $7.72/share. His holding went from 515,064 to 812,991 shares – now worth $8.1m at $10. Combined with his $934k annual compensation, James has years of salary invested in the stock.
When the CEO running the fastest-growing division puts $2.3m of his own money into the stock, pay attention.
The Risks (Because I'm Not an Idiot)
Fashion is fickle. Glassons could lose its brand heat. But 10+ years of consistent growth through multiple fashion cycles suggests something more durable than a trend.
FX can bite. NZD/USD at 0.59 is tough. But gross margins held at 59.3% through FY25 despite this, and the NZD has been recovering (back to ~0.60). Forward cover of $84.7m provides 6-12 months of protection.
Hallensteins could get worse. True. But it's already only 8% of NPBT. Even if it goes to zero, EPS drops from 82c to ~76c. At $10 that's still only 13.2x.
Liquidity is thin. Valid concern if you need to sell in a hurry. Build your position over time and don't invest money you need back quickly.
None of these risks fundamentally challenge the thesis. They're speed bumps, not roadblocks.
The Call
BUY at $10. Target $13 within 18 months. That's 13x FY27 estimated EPS of ~94c plus dividends of ~65-70c over that period. Total return: ~37%.
This is a business with:
✅ 20%+ current EPS growth, accelerating
✅ A decade-long visible growth runway in Australia
✅ $58m cash, zero debt
✅ A deeply committed CEO/heir who just bought $2.3m of stock
✅ Operating leverage now demonstrably kicking in
✅ Competitors collapsing around it
✅ A forward PE of 12x, half what comparable ASX retailers trade at
The stock is at $10 because it's listed on the NZX and the market still thinks it's a Kiwi clothing shop. It's not. It's a $250m+ and rapidly growing Australian fashion brand with a NZ legacy business bolted on. The day the market fully prices that – or someone makes a takeover bid for this absurdly cheap, cash-rich, unlevered growth business – is the day you wish you'd bought more at $10.
Hold up. Do they normally make more money in the first half or the second half ?
Quote from: Dolcile on Feb 27, 2026, 02:37 PMHold up. Do they normally make more money in the first half or the second half ?
Entrep's AI got that bit wrong. HLG has just reported for 1HY26 which includes the Christmas/summer season and is their best half. Their FY ends on August 1st.
Quote from: Pierre on Feb 27, 2026, 02:58 PMEntrep's AI got that bit wrong. HLG has just reported for 1HY26 which includes the Christmas/summer season and is their best half. Their FY ends on August 1st.
The perils of AI... thanks for pointing that out. Humans win!
I couldn't help myself, had to buy some more today.
Quote from: entrep on Feb 27, 2026, 02:23 PMI swear I'm not trying to pollute the forums with AI information but I just do find it interesting to see what it comes up with and what it latches on to when I feed it previous posts plus the latest financial statements. And of course nothing beats human analysis. Without human analysis, direction, and intuition the AI is essentially worthless. Anyway this is the last one that I'll post for a while since I'm keenly aware that this is meant to be a forum with discussion between human participants.
Please keep it coming mate because I think that although it makes some obvious mistakes its nevertheless a very useful overview and worthy of review and discussion.
QuoteHLG at $10: BUY. Strongly.
Agree 100%, its a VERY STRONG BUY
QuoteFirst 7 weeks (Sep report): sales +12.9%
First 18 weeks (AGM): sales +13.8%
Full H1 (26 weeks): sales +14.6%
Momentum was building, not fading. And the NPBT growth of +32.1% was more than double the sales growth, meaning margins are expanding rapidly. The H1 FY26 PBT margin was 14.3%, up from 12.5% in H1 FY25. That's 180 basis points of margin expansion in six months. Operating leverage is kicking in hard.
I think the momentum point is very well made and is not lost on me and I would have commented on that this morning if I had more time. That against still weak retail conditions in N.Z. and headwinds with the exchange rate during the period.
QuoteAt the FY25 effective tax rate of 32.4%:
FY26 NPAT: ~$48.9m
FY26 EPS: ~82 cps
Last years tax rate was unusually high due to prior period tax adjustments which were never explained despite me asking the CFO. I expect the tax rate to normalize this year at about 29% or just over which is the average of the N.Z and Au tax rates. I expect EPS of 90 cps and that puts HLG on a forward PE of only 11.3 at $10.15
QuoteThe Sum-of-Parts Slaps You in the Face
What A.I. is missing is that the 10 year CAGR if they make 90 cps this year is 14.5% That's an extraordinary and sustained growth rate especially given the extreme challenges thrown up over the last 6 years since Covid hit with the longest and deepest recession in N.Z. in decades as well as a protracted period of low retail activity in Australia.
Using my standard GARP value screening formula this screens as very good value at 23 times forward earnings, (no growth PE of 8.5 + 1 extra PE for each 1% proven CAGR 14.5 = forward PE of 23 x 90 cents = $20.70. To be crystal clear, I think this is a screaming bargain and trading at half its intrinsic worth.
Quote1. NZX perception discount
The NZX still prices HLG as a New Zealand cyclical retailer. It isn't one anymore. 53% of sales and 59% of NPBT come from Glassons Australia. If this business were listed on the ASX with the same growth profile, it would trade at 16-18x forward earnings, not 12x. Briscoes – a purely domestic NZ retailer with flat to declining earnings – trades at 19x. That's absurd relative to HLG.
I strongly agree but as stated above I think its worth 23 times forward earnings.
QuoteThis is a business with:
✅ 20%+ current EPS growth, accelerating
✅ A decade-long visible growth runway in Australia
✅ $58m cash, zero debt
✅ A deeply committed CEO/heir who just bought $2.3m of stock
✅ Operating leverage now demonstrably kicking in
✅ Competitors collapsing around it
✅ A forward PE of 12x, half what comparable ASX retailers trade at
The stock is at $10 because it's listed on the NZX and the market still thinks it's a Kiwi clothing shop. It's not. It's a $250m+ and rapidly growing Australian fashion brand with a NZ legacy business bolted on
These points are very well made as was the earlier point about lack of liquidity.
The point I have highlighted is one that I think sums the situation up very well.
This is trading at on deeply compelling metrics. A good analogy is like when TRA was trading at $4 a few years ago. Very seldom do well proven growth stocks present as having such exceptional value. Even more rare when they have a very long history of trading on the NZX.
I have backed up the truck properly and am really looking forward to the growth continuing in the years ahead.
HLG is my #1 investment position in the market and highest conviction holding. I expect analyst upgrades to come out on Monday next week.
QuoteAlfie 10/02/2026: I think HLG would be one of the best asymmetric risk shares on the NZX. There is very little chance- in my mind- of major falls in share price or a dividend reduction. On the other side there is a long runway of growth ahead in Australia that is easily funded by existing cash/ FCF. It wouldn't be unlikely to see HLG grow earnings/ dividends at 10% pa plus for the next 5 years.
New poster on the other channel. I like what he has to say about the asymmetric risk. There's risk in all equities but the risk-reward equation on HLG is very much skewed towards the reward side in my opinion.
Ponderings to consider and possibly discuss at tomorrow's get-together. Sales up 14.6% in the half but net profit up a whopping 32.1%. Where did the quite considerable extra margin / profitability come from ? A few thoughts.
Just looking at the exchange rate for a minute.
According to A.I. The average intermonth exchange rate from August 2025 to January 2026 for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) to US Dollar (USD) is approximately 0.58176 USD. According to Yahoo finance the average in the previous corresponding period (PCP) was 59.63 so it appears the US dollar was a 143 basis headwind this half compared to PCP. US-Kiwi cross rate was a serious headwind that's been very easily overcome so that's quite interesting in itself. Kiwi - Aussie cross rate could have been assistive.
Economies of scale could have played a part. That makes sense when sales have grown ~ 15% and corporate overhead may have grown at a considerably slower pace.
Lower cost of doing business simply doesn't seem like a plausible reason. Costs never go down.
The RFID stock tracking seems likely to have helped. Lower stock losses and lower level's of discounting. If I recall correctly they talked up the benefits of this technology at the annual meeting and how it provides more accurate stocking of stores to match demand and being able to do stock takes daily to track and address any stock issues more quickly.
Better trade terms with suppliers. Maybe but they've been pushing hard on that for quite some time.
Lower freight costs. Maybe freight rates have normalized and better stock tracking enables better and more efficient ordering and procurement practices ?
A significant recovery in the profitability of N.Z. operations. This seems highly likely to be one of the main contributors. They talked about N.Z. operations being ahead of PCP at the annual meeting and the profitability sure got a beating last year so the bar was set very low for a significant improvement this year which will lead to more imputation credits being available. That's good !
Just a few musings and ponderings about possible reasons for the very surprising profitability jump. Feel free to add your own thoughts or discuss tomorrow in person.
Basil,
Scale benefits you allude to seem compelling. $35m extra sales in H1 at around 60% GM would contribute plus $21m NPBT, with NPBT up $10m it seems half flowed through to the bottom line. Powerful operating leverage in semi fixed store costs, staff costs and HQ costs. Great economics!
Thanks Mos, very well said.
We should see more of the same in the years ahead, profit growing faster than the 10 year EPS CAGR of 14.5%. Glassons Au has only just hit critical mass.
Australian warehouse space being expanded from 3 sites totalling 3,500 sqm to one site of 7,000 sqm with robotisised pick technology gives a big clue to expansion plans.
I have finally had some time to sit down and update my HLG spreadsheet.
Suffice to say, this is a very impressive result.
To get to PBT of $39.6m as far as I can tell the HY figures look something like this:
Revenue $275.2m (reported)
COS $110.1m (40% of sales)
GM $165.1m
Selling $93.6m (34% of sales)
Dist. $9.6m (3.5% of sales)
Admin $21.0m (7.6% of sales).
In splitting out the 2025 H1 and H2 result I noticed that the Admin costs jumped from $18.9m (H1) to $21.6m (H2). I got AI to help me unpick the possible reasons for this, which is in the quote below. Based on this, I've assumed the admin cost is stable or just below H2 2025 in back solving the PBT guidance.
QuoteGrowth-related overhead – FY25 saw strong sales growth, particularly at Glassons Australia, where several stores were relocated, expanded or newly opened (e.g., the Werribee store relocation and expansion and new stores at Rundle Mall and Manawa Bay). The Group noted that it "balanced continued investment in our operational capabilities to support the growth of our Australian brands" with careful cost control. These investments required additional head-office support, contributing to higher administration expenses.
Digital and marketing initiatives – The FY25 interim report highlights a continued focus on digital marketing and the omnichannel experience across both brands, including enhancements to the Hallensteins and Glassons web shops and their mobile app. Expanding digital capability requires head-office and IT resources that flow through administration expenses.
Increased people costs and share-based payments – The Group expanded from 2,352 employees in FY24 to 2,588 employees in FY25 (as disclosed in the annual report's highlights) and operates in a tight labour market. In addition, the share-option reserve increased, suggesting higher share-based remuneration costs. Wage inflation and staff incentives for a larger workforce raise administrative overhead.
Inflation and one-off items – General inflation (especially salaries and IT services) and one-off expenditures such as consultancy associated with store migrations, lease negotiations and systems improvements, also contributed to higher administration expenses. The company's commentary about investing in "operational capability" implies that some of these expenses were deliberate investments to support future growth.
And finally, some might be interested to know that the H1 2026 result is higher than the FY2019 result. Wowee.
Thanks Dolcile
I was wondering how online sales were contributing to growth. Not as much as I expected.
By AI
Recent Online Sales Performance
Full Year 2025 Digital sales represented 18.0% of group revenue, with overall online sales growing by 6.7% year-on-year.
Half Year 2025 : Online sales accounted for nearly 18% of group sales.
Full Year 2024 : Online sales were 18.2% of total sales, compared to 18.3% in the 2023 financial year.
Half Year 2024 (to Feb 1): Digital sales were slightly lower at 17.3%, down from 18.1% in the same period the previous year.
Historical Context.
Hallenstein Glasson's online sales peaked significantly during the COVID-19 pandemic due to widespread store closures.
2022: Online sales reached 27.88% (or 27.9%) of total revenue.
2021: Online sales represented 24.04% of total turnover.
2020: Online sales for the full year were 22%, but surged to 31% during the final six months of the financial year due to lockdowns.
The company continues to invest in digital platforms, recently launching a Hallensteins App and reporting over 1.9 million downloads for the Glassons App to drive further engagement.
Excellent update from Forbar. Rated Outperform, projecting total FY26 dividend of 71.5cps and 12 month target price of $12.50 (up from $11.75).
Maybe we should both buy some more Basil - to hell with diversification!
Quote from: Pierre on Mar 02, 2026, 08:00 AMExcellent update from Forbar. Rated Outperform, projecting total FY26 dividend of 71.5cps and 12 month target price of $12.50 (up from $11.75).
Maybe we should both buy some more Basil - to hell with diversification!
Jeez. .....only $12.50
Wait for next upgrade in few months ..it be $14.10
It seems very conservative to me. Forbar are forecasting a 3 year CAGR of 14% yet they are only valuing it at 14.88xFY26 earnings.
After a few drinks yesterday it all became crystal clear to me...the pathway to $30 in five years time.
For those who were out of earshot or not there yesterday when I had this epiphany its not as outrageous as it sounds. Its just simple math's.
5 years compound EPS growth of 15%, (could be higher per scale benefits as alluded too above, but lets stick with 15% CAGR for now), doubles your EPS = $20. on the current PE multiple.
Multiple expansion from the ridiculously low 11 to a more sensible and still conservative PE of 16.5 (still exceptional value for a stock growing EPS at 15% CAGR) 50% multiple expansion x $20 = $30. Strong ongoing compound EPS growth and multiple expansion combining is how really serious money is made on the market. HLG doing this with no issuance of shares is one of the keys. Maybe just an alcohol fueled dream, but I reckon it's a real chance especially if your timeframe is more than 5 years, say 7-8 years. When it hits $30 Pierre, we'll have to up the ante to flying first class ;)
Hey Basil, congratulations on your possibly alcohol fuelled HLG epiphany, however, for those of us who couldn't attend, were any other meaningful stocks discussed?
Quote from: Basil on Mar 02, 2026, 10:18 AMAfter a few drinks yesterday it all became crystal clear to me...the pathway to $30 in five years time.
...Maybe just an alcohol fueled dream, but I reckon it's a real chance especially if your timeframe is more than 5 years, say 7-8 years. When it hits $30 Pierre, we'll have to up the ante to flying first class ;)
I don't think you drank enough cider yesterday Basil to cloud your usual perspicacity so I think your analysis holds a great deal of merit.
Following our discussion yesterday and today's Forbar report I couldn't hold back. I put in an order pre-opening and have increased my HLG holding by a further 10%.
I'm looking forward to the first class flights but I think I'll move up when we get to $20. In 8 years time, I might be on a Zimmer frame and unable to walk to the plane!
What would guru Ben Graham would come up
0.9 x (8.5 + 30) assuming eps of 90 cents and 15% growth
About the same as Basil ....$34.65
Mr Gordon had a way of valuing stocks in his Dividend Discount Model
HLG divie 65 cents (gross). Say my expected return is 8% pa
At a share price of $10 that implies growth in dividends will be 1.5% pa
I can hear the laughter from Basil in Auckland down here
Quote from: Pierre on Mar 02, 2026, 01:02 PMI don't think you drank enough cider yesterday Basil to cloud your usual perspicacity so I think your analysis holds a great deal of merit.
Following our discussion yesterday and today's Forbar report I couldn't hold back. I put in an order pre-opening and have increased my HLG holding by a further 10%.
I'm looking forward to the first class flights but I think I'll move up when we get to $20. In 8 years time, I might be on a Zimmer frame and unable to walk to the plane!
Nice one Pierre. It was a real pleasure meeting you, Ferg, Evan,Gavin and others and our discussion on the benefits of a more concentrated portfolio is definitly food for more thought. A most enjoyable afternoon.
Quote from: winner (n) on Mar 02, 2026, 01:43 PMMr Gordon had a way of valuing stocks in his Dividend Discount Model
HLG divie 65 cents (gross). Say my expected return is 8% pa
At a share price of $10 that implies growth in dividends will be 1.5% pa
I can hear the laughter from Basil in Auckland down here
I suspect we are going to be very pleasantly surprised (or not surprised ;D ) by the dividend this year.
Quote from: Dolcile on Mar 02, 2026, 09:06 AMIt seems very conservative to me. Forbar are forecasting a 3 year CAGR of 14% yet they are only valuing it at 14.88xFY26 earnings.
Their EPS of 84 cents for FY26, (I'm at 90 cps) is based on a very pessimistic tax rate of 32%, similar to last year which included a significant prior period adjustment for tax costing a headwind of 3 cps on earnings, cost this year which doesn't seem likely to me if they're right will be 3.4 cps. The other difference is I'm slightly more optimistic about 2H performance than they are, worth 2.6 cps.
Looks like a very brief update to their DCF model. Not much thought gone into how profit grew 32% on sales increasing 15%. Don't think they've got a good grip yet on the economies of scale subject that's been discussed above. Nevertheless its good to have their analysis as I remember the days when I was alone in the wilderness without any analyst coverage and it was a pretty lonely experience, albeit, very rewarding.
QuoteLeft Field on Today at 12:28 PM
Hey Basil, congratulations on your possibly alcohol fuelled HLG epiphany, however, for those of us who couldn't attend, were any other meaningful stocks discussed?
Good discussions amoungst the group about Seeka, Skellerup, Turners, Argosy, Kiwi Property, MCK, Tower, Genesis and many others.
Quote from: Basil on Mar 02, 2026, 02:36 PMGood discussions amoungst the group about Seeka, Skellerup, Turners, Argosy, Kiwi Property, MCK, Tower, Genesis and many others.
Are you getting closer to coming over to seeka and seeing the merits of the business and slowly getting closer to nzx50 inclusion? ;D
LOL No mate, Agri stocks are not my thing and I'm capital constrained, just like everyone else is and can't be everywhere. I've recently added moderate size positions in Skellerup and ASR, and added more HLG last Friday.
Quote from: Basil on Mar 02, 2026, 03:27 PMLOL No mate, Agri stocks are not my thing and I'm capital constrained, just like everyone else is and can't be everywhere. I've recently added moderate size positions in Skellerup and ASR, and added more HLG last Friday.
Thought I'd ask :) . I remember yourve said in the past agri stocks are not your thing. Just wondering if you had changed your mind.
A new ATH of $10.32 for HLG today as the SP continues to head north. There's still a way to go before it hits Basil's $30 forecast, but at least it's tracking in the right direction.
Onward and upward!
Good to see a new ATH. Well overdue. For those who think they've missed the boat here nothing could be further from the truth in my opinion. HLG was $10.20 in early November 2025 ~ 4 months ago and has been in a consolidation phase since then after going ex divvy in early December. From, a TA point of view, making a new high was very important here and the chart suggests its onward and upward from here...but as the old Mainland Cheese advertisement suggests, good things take time...
Quote from: Basil on Mar 02, 2026, 05:30 PMGood to see a new ATH. Well overdue. For those who think they've missed the boat here nothing could be further from the truth in my opinion. HLG was $10.20 in early November 2025 ~ 4 months ago and has been in a consolidation phase since then after going ex divvy in early December. From, a TA point of view, making a new high was very important here and the chart suggests its onward and upward from here...but as the old Mainland Cheese advertisement suggests, good things take time...
Could also argue that it was a triple top in mid-Feb, but the tailwinds were too strong (Aussie retail data you folks mentioned earlier with UNI etc, lower NZD) for it not to break upwards lol...
I think it might sit here for a while pending further details, dividends etc that will be announced at the end of the month.
I'm happy for it to sit here for a while longer. Good opportunity to buy even more.
A new ATH of $10.32 for HLG today as the SP continues to head north....on a bad day for the market overall
A new phenomenon ...the HQ Effect
Mudt have been many punters/diners eavesdropping
Quote from: alkebab on Mar 02, 2026, 05:34 PMI think it might sit here for a while pending further details, dividends etc that will be announced at the end of the month.
The dividend announcement definitely could be the catalyst for the next upward movement in the SP.
Last year's 1H divvy was 24.5cps and the final was 30.5, making a total of 55.0c for the year.
However, in today's update Forbar estimated a total of 71.5cps in 2026. How might that be split? Say, 32.0 and 39.5? Whichever way it goes a 30% increase, if it eventuates, is sure to generate more SP action.
That sell chart is looking more barren than TRA when it went on a run from $7 to $8+. Jeez.
Current SP is $10.49.
If you want more than 21 shares the next offer is $11.00!
Update:
There is a bargain available though. There is one only share on offer at $10.99. You'll need to be quick!
Just curious ... I guess I see all the amazing linear approximations of the recent uprise. Feels a bit like students calculating the final velocity of a rocket based on checking the early launch movements.
Of course, nothing can go wrong (hey, it never does, doesn't it), but still wondering - anybody checking into the risks for HLG?
So - what are the 3 largest risks for HLG to get the price down again?
Competition?
Teenagers brandloyalty for cheap Asian clothes?
WW3?
Anyway - happy $30 ...+
So - what are the 3 largest risks for HLG to get the price down again?
Gravity!?! ;)
Most of us bought cheaply enough to withstand a price correction as the dividends are good and the forward pe reasonable.
Quote from: BlackPeter on Mar 03, 2026, 12:13 PMSo - what are the 3 largest risks for HLG to get the price down again?
Competition?
Teenagers brandloyalty for cheap Asian clothes?
WW3?
Anyway - happy $30 ...+
Well, today, it's certainly not a surfeit of sellers. As I write there are only around 10k shares on offer from sellers on Invest Direct.
As for your suggestions:
* Competition?
Most of the current and forecast growth is in Australia where significant numbers of other fashion retailers have been failing and falling by the wayside over recent years. HLG's runway for new stores over the ditch is very long and is a key factor providing confidence in the company's future prospects.
* Teenagers brand loyalty for cheap Asian clothes?
I doubt that fashion conscious young women have much interest in cheap Asian products. They've been around for years - and there's not much brand value in clothing from Temu and the like.
* WW3
When/if that occurs it won't only impact HLG.
One of the principal factors that attracts me to HLG is that the Glasson family hold somewhere around 20% of the equity in the company. They have their name on the door, work in or direct the business, and have their lives heavily invested in the company.That personal commitment to success distinguishes HLG from being just another corporate led by greedy carpet bagger executives. (WHS, FBU anyone?)
The same applies to TRA where, while they dont have their names on the door, the chair, other directors, and the CE all have significant financial holdings in the company.
What's good for them is great for me!
Quote from: BlackPeter on Mar 03, 2026, 12:13 PMJust curious ... I guess I see all the amazing linear approximations of the recent uprise. Feels a bit like students calculating the final velocity of a rocket based on checking the early launch movements.
Of course, nothing can go wrong (hey, it never does, doesn't it), but still wondering - anybody checking into the risks for HLG?
So - what are the 3 largest risks for HLG to get the price down again?
Competition?
Teenagers brandloyalty for cheap Asian clothes?
WW3?
Anyway - happy $30 ...+
Good questions BP and one punters should consider.
A few years ago I had a discussion with a HLG exec and discussed risk management.....inc the what could go wrong question.
It was good to hear that as part of their strategic planning process they do spend a fair bit of time asking themselves that question and putting in place plans to mitigate any possible downside. What reassured me was that considering the what can go wrong question often led to new opportunities and business improvement...and that shows in their results.
Of course the unexpected can happen but the experienced team at HLG will see them through those.
Might try to catch up with him again.
Quote from: Pierre on Mar 03, 2026, 01:23 PMOne of the principal factors that attracts me to HLG is that the Glasson family hold somewhere around 20% of the equity in the company. They have their name on the door, work in or direct the business, and have their lives heavily invested in the company.That personal commitment to success distinguishes HLG
Very well said Pierre. Lorriana calls this "the owners eye". No question that companies where the directors and senior management have a really meaningful stake in the business outperform those that don't. You can see this is the low risk way HLG go about growing this business with no debt and a reluctance to sign new leases until a pop up store has confirmed the suitability of the area. Quite apart from that Its extremely rare that the forward PE (11) is lower than the 10 year CAGR (14.5%) of a well proven business. I was out on the boat with a group of friends and investors yesterday. Consensus view was this would be close to double the price it is if it were listed in Australia. One didn't like it because its in the apparel sector but my rebuttal is the numbers don't lie. When HLG reports for FY26 I expect they will announce EPS that is ~ quadruple what it was 10 years ago and Glassons Au sales that are approx. 8 times what they were a decade ago and that against a backdrop of all the extraordinary challenges for the sector since Covid hit 6 years ago. Glassons as a brand has been around for 107 years and Hallensteins for over 150 years. HLG is N.Z.'s oldest listed company. How much more proof do you need that this is a successful and enduring growth company...
How many wars have there been in the last 150 years BlackPeter...
Quote from: Basil post 1924 on Mar 04, 2026, 05:42 PM................ One didn't like it because it's in the apparel sector ........ Glassons as a brand has been around for 107 years and Hallensteins for over 150 years. HLG is N.Z.'s oldest listed company. .....
I don't want to be merely pumping any one's tyres, especially when I am probably in all reality underweighted in HLG, that said for me as a retailer in that sector they're not really likely to fall into a commodity price trap as they do seem able to differentiate on other than price, and also avoid the price squeeze clothing manufacturers might face in their businesses. Clothes need replacement, even when they are quality items they have a limited life for their target market, whether that be down to fashion of the season or degradation to some extent, and chances are clothes for most folk will always be a necessity.
Perhaps other's might express it in their thoughts;
Quote from: Pierre post 1922 on Mar 03, 2026, 01:23 PM...........* Teenagers brand loyalty for cheap Asian clothes?
I doubt that fashion conscious young women have much interest in cheap Asian products. They've been around for years - and there's not much brand value in clothing from Temu and the like......
.......... They have their name on the door, work in or direct the business, and have their lives heavily invested in the company. That personal commitment to success distinguishes HLG from ..........
Which might lead on to in my thoughts
Quote from: winner post 1923 (n) on Mar 04, 2026, 08:06 AM......... the what could go wrong question.....
It was good to hear that as part of their strategic planning process they do spend a fair bit of time asking themselves that question and putting in place plans to mitigate any possible downside. What reassured me was that considering the what can go wrong question often led to new opportunities and business improvement...................
Thanks for your perspectives.
Quote from: Basil on Mar 04, 2026, 05:42 PMVery well said Pierre. Lorriana calls this "the owners eye". No question that companies where the directors and senior management have a really meaningful stake in the business outperform those that don't. You can see this is the low risk way HLG go about growing this business with no debt and a reluctance to sign new leases until a pop up store has confirmed the suitability of the area. Quite apart from that Its extremely rare that the forward PE (11) is lower than the 10 year CAGR (14.5%) of a well proven business. I was out on the boat with a group of friends and investors yesterday. Consensus view was this would be close to double the price it is if it were listed in Australia. One didn't like it because its in the apparel sector but my rebuttal is the numbers don't lie. When HLG reports for FY26 I expect they will announce EPS that is ~ quadruple what it was 10 years ago and Glassons Au sales that are approx. 8 times what they were a decade ago and that against a backdrop of all the extraordinary challenges for the sector since Covid hit 6 years ago. Glassons as a brand has been around for 107 years and Hallensteins for over 150 years. HLG is N.Z.'s oldest listed company. How much more proof do you need that this is a successful and enduring growth company...
How many wars have there been in the last 150 years BlackPeter...
Look Basil, I do see the favorables ... and just noticed that people don't seem to talk about the risks anymore. Given that there is no investment without risks, this typically means that markets move towards a peak ... ah well, and we all know what happens afterwards.
Looking into economics - if there is this amazing option to generate endless profits with selling pricesensitive asian clothes, it is hard to see why not others are following this strategy. The result is always - supply increases, price drops ... and the markets find their new balance.
No doubt, even HLG's australian starshooter shops will find that.
So - all good, and enjoy the hope for your $30 share. Sure - might work out, or HLG owners find as well that things in nature don't move in lines, but in circles. They always do.
In the long run the market is a weighing machine not a voting machine.
Share prices follow earning therefore for example, is it really any surprise that HLG share price has quadrupled in the last 10 years when EPS has quadrupled or that by way of example the share price of OCA has gone nowhere in the last 9 years since it listed seeing as EPS has gone nowhere.
How much more proof do you need than a decade if earnings are growing...or not, as the case may be.
Glassons is a young cool brand in Australia. The opposite is the Warehouse which is an old stale brand in N.Z. Its important with marketing to have an understanding of brands and their value and where they are in their life cycle.
All stocks have risk, yes, some a LOT more than others. You keep saying that nobody can predict the future so my question to you is why are you stock picking at all and not in index funds if you don't believe that the past history of a company and its earnings is not a decent guide to the future ?
With HLG the trend is your friend, with many other stocks, its not.
What I try and do mate, is vision cast. Where do I think a business is going to be 5-10 years from now. $30 is quite possible in due course. Its quadrupled in the last 10 years. Just as well we know history never repeats eh ;)
For those who doubt the growth runway, I recommend they listen to James Glasson at the last AGM and his outline for how they are growing the Australian side of the business. The model has proved itself.....so far. The pop up store as a trial for a new area is a good tactic. He also talked about managed growth / expansion which IMHO is the way it should be. It doesn't spread your resources too thinly or create problems for back end logistics and working capital.
So the runway for growth in Australia is there and it is real....of course there are risks for shareholders as with any business. IMO the biggest risks for HLG are FX exposure & brand destruction - plus the cycles of retail spend & confidence. The law of diminishing returns will kick in at some point....as they get bigger, 3 new stores per year is a smaller % of new stores each year.
In the meantime the dividends should keep rolling on.
Forbar's estimates (cps):
FY26 71.5
FY27 77.0
FY28 83.0
Quote from: Pierre on Mar 06, 2026, 11:11 AMIn the meantime the dividends should keep rolling on.
Forbar's estimates (cps):
FY26 71.5
FY27 77.0
FY28 83.0
Crickey mate, how are we going to spend all that ? I might even as a last desperate resort have to ask my wife to help me with that "difficult" task lol
Might even be $1 a share in dividends by FY30 :-[ First class suite on Singapore airlines A380 looks pretty good to me https://www.youtube.com/shorts/R9JO98V4HFY
Quote from: Basil on Mar 06, 2026, 12:18 PMCrickey mate, how are we going to spend all that ? I might even as a last desperate resort have to ask my wife to help me with that "difficult" task lol
Might even be $1 a share in dividends by FY30 :-[ First class suite on Singapore airlines A380 looks pretty good to me https://www.youtube.com/shorts/R9JO98V4HFY
This year's divvie is committed to biz class to Rome. But when, (not if), we hit $1.00 per share that First Class suite looks pretty appealing, though I suspect my wife won't be happy if I'm sharing it with the lovely young lady in the video!
Wow, what just happened here - HLG down 4.65% ?
Quote from: 850man on Mar 09, 2026, 01:00 PMWow, what just happened here - HLG down 4.65% ?
That would be my fault I had an order at $10.10 last week when it went way past that. Got hit this morning then nek minute...... ::)
I had one at $10.01 - same thing WTF!
this is just the start... check your oil prices.. effects everything including transport ..
if you dont think oil effect market check the herald this morning they are reporting market slumping...
if they cant open the SH then oil is just starting the move up...
retail always gets slammed..
Quote from: 850man on Mar 09, 2026, 01:00 PMWow, what just happened here - HLG down 4.65% ?
Low volume
Quote from: Playa on Mar 09, 2026, 02:23 PMLow volume
Its always low volume, just gives you a chance to add if you think this is a short term blimp and don't think its going to impact earnings in a meaningful way going forward.
Retail panic selling across a bunch of names on the NZX.
Share price back over 10 bucks
What's with the weakness in share price in the last week. Surly Iran couldn't be playing such a huge part with a great profit and divi. I honestly thought it's not going to be under 10 ever again
Quote from: Scooter on Mar 13, 2026, 05:26 PMWhat's with the weakness in share price in the last week. Surly Iran couldn't be playing such a huge part with a great profit and divi. I honestly thought it's not going to be under 10 ever again
Of course it does. Transport costs will effect the business. No ones going to be able to hide from it
In the end if you think this is a short term blimp, then it gives you a chance to add for the long term.
It is unusual that for example Briscoes on a PE of over 17 and a 10 year EPS CAGR of only 2% is holding up a lot better than HLG with its vastly better growth rate and considerably more attractive metrics. Go figure ?
Agree freight rates are a headwind for an unknown period of time but that affects all retailers and like most other business's, increased costs will have to be passed onto consumers.
Quote from: Basil on Mar 13, 2026, 05:40 PMIt is unusual that for example Briscoes on a PE of over 17 and a 10 year EPS CAGR of only 2% is holding up a lot better than HLG with its vastly better growth rate and considerably more attractive metrics. Go figure ?
Agree freight rates are a headwind for an unknown period of time but that affects all retailers and like most other business's, increased costs will have to be passed onto consumers.
Rod's a hero who punters love. Jeez, did you hear on the radio people like Hosking give Rod a rave
Who's this Tim .... A nobody in comparison eh
Just as well in the long run the market is a weighing machine not a voting machine eh
Quote from: Basil on Mar 13, 2026, 07:47 PMJust as well in the long run the market is a weighing machine not a voting machine eh
Believe that at your peril Basil
Somebody once said this, more meaningful -
Abstract, a valuation floats in the imagination like a memory – perhaps closely resembling real events, perhaps drifting into the realms of fantasy.
Yet its ethereal existence has power. The idea of a valuation can flood the consciousness so completely it's hard to contemplate an alternative.
Others believe the greatest driver of the market is fear and greed. Fear seems to be in charge at present but there's always sunshine after rain, these things have always been the same.
Quote from: Basil on Mar 14, 2026, 08:16 AM...there's always sunshine after rain, these things have always been the same...
...so why worry now?
Did you purposefully quote the lyrics to this song? ;D
jeez - HLG hit 936 but recovering (not so bad as some will take comfort in being on low volumes)
Now 12% down from recent high. Suppose market now behaving like a weighing machine after that short burst of voting
I bought a few more, then thought I was catching the proverbial falling knife. HLG is my biggest holding.
Quote from: winner (n) on Mar 16, 2026, 01:07 PMjeez - HLG hit 936 but recovering (not so bad as some will take comfort in being on low volumes)
Now 12% down from recent high. Suppose market now behaving like a weighing machine after that short burst of voting
Nice try mate, lol. I know "Beagle bait" when I see it and I'm not biting :)
Tim Glasson on radio this morning saying Glassons going OK and great sales in Chch and Queenstown
jeez - 13% down from recent high
Market must think HLG overpriced in these turbulent times
But it will all OK on Friday when they tell us that sales for 2nd half are up 14% on last year ..... and the momentum is continuing.
Friday's announcement is eagerly awaited and will also give a very useful insight into how trading has been in the first 7 weeks or so of 2H FY26.
Quote from: Basil on Mar 25, 2026, 04:34 PMFriday's announcement is eagerly awaited and will also give a very useful insight into how trading has been in the first 7 weeks or so of 2H FY26.
Last year's first half dividend was 24.5cps. What will be announced Friday morning? My pick is at least 30cps but potentially up to 32cps.
Forbar's estimate for the total FY26 divvie is 71.5. All very tasty!
Goodness gracious - Group sales for the first seven weeks are up +20.1% on the same period last year from a functional currency perspective of the countries in which our chains operate,
What do they mean by 'from a functional currency perspective' - I presume real increase before forex impacts/
But 20.1% increase is HUGE
First impressions.
Outstanding result right at the very top end of guidance. Dividend is slightly lower than I was hoping for but given geopolitical environment they are right to be prudent and conservative.
Great to see a huge improvement in the profitability of Glassons N.Z. and Hallensteins. That's encouraging for the future level of imputation credits.
Glassons Au sales up 22% is stunning.
Effective tax rate just under 30% as expected, 29.65% a blend of N.Z and Au tax rates.
Not quite sure what the functional currency perspective comment means but I guess constant currency compared to the previous corresponding period ? Keep in mind 3 of those 7 weeks were affected by the war so 20.1% growth in sales in the 7 weeks to date for 2H is truly outstanding. If I'm honest I expected it to be late single digits growth given the headwinds from geopolitical events and the fact sales were growing at 14.6% in the first half. 20.1% growth is hugely encouraging.
Very early days but that's an outstanding indication of how resilient the business could be in these challenging times. Warren Bell is quite rightly calling out some of the challenges in the second half but my goodness, I'm seriously impressed with the initial indication of how they're coping.
More thoughts to come after I've read through the financials' in detail.
Quote from: Basil on Mar 27, 2026, 09:25 AMFirst impressions.
Outstanding result right at the very top end of guidance. Dividend is slightly lower than I was hoping for but given geopolitical environment they are right to be prudent and conservative.
Great to see a huge improvement in the profitability of Glassons N.Z. and Hallensteins. That's encouraging for the future level of imputation credits.
Glassons Au sales up 22% is stunning.
Effective tax rate just under 30% as expected, 29.65% a blend of N.Z and Au tax rates.
Not quite sure what the functional currency perspective comment means but I guess constant currency compared to the previous corresponding period ? Keep in mind 3 of those 7 weeks were affected by the war so 20.1% growth in sales in the 7 weeks to date for 2H is truly outstanding. If I'm honest I expected it to be late single digits growth given the headwinds from geopolitical events and the fact sales were growing at 14.6% in the first half. 20.1% growth is hugely encouraging.
Very early days but that's an outstanding indication of how resilient the business could be in these challenging times. Warren Bell is quite rightly calling out some of the challenges in the second half but my goodness, I'm seriously impressed with the initial indication of how they're coping.
More thoughts to come after I've read through the financials' in detail.
NZD has dropped from 87c at the end of Oct to 83c today, so approx 5% drop.
Great result
Functional currency means the economic environment in which the entity/business operates. So I'm assume it means that the increase is in AU vs AU.
Another stunner.
Buckle up this is really bloody interesting from a dividend hounds perspective. (Just a quick analysis of the financials, will have a more detailed look later)
Not sure why the modest imputation rate this time, must be a timing issue of when tax is paid as there are penalties for the imputation credit account going into debit so most companies don;t overpay out imputation credits.
First a few other things and then we'll get to the real gold about potential future level of imputation credits...(brokers are forecasting well below 50% in the years ahead which looks wrong).
EPS of 47 cps is outstanding. Only paying out 29 cps in dividend is a record low payout ratio of only 61.7%
A whopping 90 cps in cash flow from operating activities...this company is a cash flow machine !
Cash on hand now $67.5m up from $58.3m at balance date and a record level of cash on hand by miles, amounts to $1.13 per share and that's despite a significantly increased investment of $12.5m in plant and equipment, (new store fit out and refurbishment as well as I presume progress payments on the new warehouse).
Looking ahead to the potential level of imputation credits which obviously has a huge effect on what net dividend we get in our hands, its well worth noting that Glassons N.Z. and Hallensteins have a combined tax impost as recorded in the financial statements of $5.521m.
Full imputation credits on this 29 cent dividend would use $4.83m of that leaving $0.69m available to be carried forward.
The low level of imputation credit this time must be a timing issue but I am hugely encouraged by the huge profit jump in Glassons N.Z and Haldenstein's which could lead to future dividends being fully imputed !
That's a game changer for the net income you receive in your hand especially for those like me holding their shares in their own investment company which is taxed at 28% so full imputation credits extinguish any tax liability.
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/470014/attachment/465439/470014-465439.pdf
I couldn't help myself, purchased another tranche this morning.
If it weren't for the current geopolitical environment I reckon this would be over $11 on that excellent result.
HLG H1 FY26 – Straight Assessment
The Result
H1 FY26 is an excellent result. There's no honest way to characterize it otherwise.
Sales up 14.6% to $275.2m
Gross margin up 240bps to 60.9%
NPBT up 32.9% to $39.8m
EPS 47.0c, up 32.4%
Operating cash flow $53.5m
Cash on hand $67.5m ($1.13/share), no debt
All three divisions in profit growth for the first time in years
First 7 weeks of H2 trading up 20.1% in functional currency
These are facts, not spin. This is the best half-year result the company has ever produced.
The Concerns – Real But Proportionate
Admin expenses up 31% ($6.0m increase): This is a genuine unknown and the financials don't explain it. It needs watching. But in the context of NPBT growing $9.9m in the same period, the business more than absorbed it. If it's one-off costs (warehouse project, Australian subsidiary setup, CEO departure), it doesn't change the story. If it's structural, it modestly reduces forward earnings. Either way it's not a dealbreaker – it's an open question.
FX hedges underwater ($2.7m after-tax swing): Real, and it will create some margin pressure over the next 6-12 months. But $2.7m against H1 NPAT of $28m is manageable. Management has navigated FX headwinds before. The gross margin may compress somewhat from 60.9% but it was 58.5% a year ago and 59.3% for FY25 – even some giveback still leaves it in good shape.
Imputation rate at 11.28%: Genuinely the lowest on record and annoying for NZ shareholders. Most likely a timing issue with provisional tax payments. The NZ divisions generated $5.5m in tax this half, which is more than enough to fully impute the 29c dividend if the credits were available at the right time. This is a nuisance, not a fundamental problem.
No Group CEO: Unusual, but the results speak for themselves. The company just delivered 33% profit growth without one. Maybe they don't need one.
Maybe they do and the cracks will show later. For now, the evidence says the current structure works.
Chairman's cautious outlook: He should be cautious – there are genuine geopolitical risks and he'd be irresponsible not to flag them. But he was cautious last year too and the business delivered record results. The 20.1% H2 trading start suggests the business is performing well despite whatever he's worried about.
None of these concerns are existential. None of them fundamentally undermine the investment case. They're real risks that could shave a few cents off EPS or create a soft quarter. They're not reasons to avoid the stock.
Segments – What Actually Matters
Glassons Australia grew sales 22.4% to $151.8m. NPBT margin compressed slightly from 13.7% to 13.2% due to new store costs and the warehouse project. This is normal for a business investing in growth. The margin compression is 50bps on a division growing revenue 22% – that's a perfectly acceptable trade-off. 41 stores now, with room for 80+ on a population-adjusted basis. The growth runway is real.
Glassons NZ is the story within the story. NPBT up 43.8% to $13.3m on sales up only 8.2%. The margin expanded to 21.5% – highest in the group. This division is demonstrating that in a recovering economy with stable store count, operating leverage is powerful. It also generates the NZ tax credits needed for dividend imputation.
Hallensteins bounced 76% off a terrible base. Good to see but this is recovery, not growth. It's back to roughly where it was two years ago. Adequate, not exciting.
Full-Year FY26 Estimate
H1 delivered 47.0c EPS. H2 FY25 delivered 30.7c EPS. If H2 FY26 grows at 15% (splitting the difference between the chairman's caution and the strong 7-week trading), H2 EPS would be about 35-36c, giving full-year EPS of approximately 83-85c.
That's a reasonable central estimate. Could be higher if the 20.1% trading momentum continues. Could be lower if geopolitical events hit consumer confidence. I'll use 84c as my working number.
Valuation at $10
Forward PE on 84c EPS: 11.9x. HLG's long-run average PE is about 11.6x. So the stock is trading almost exactly at its historical average multiple.
The difference is that the earnings growth rate today (~30% this year, probably normalizing to 10-15% going forward) is stronger than what the historical average PE was assigned against. A company with a proven growth engine in Australia, $1.13/share in cash, zero debt, and a 10-15% forward earnings growth rate would normally deserve at least its historical average PE and arguably a modest premium.
At 11.9x forward, the market is not giving HLG any credit for the acceleration in growth or the Australian runway. It's pricing it as if it's the same cyclical NZ retailer it was five years ago. That's where the opportunity lies, if there is one.
Cash dividend yield of about 6% is solid. Even with poor imputation, that's a meaningful income stream while you wait.
So What Is It?
It's good value. Not a screaming buy, not a stay away, not a disaster. Good value.
Here's why: you're buying a business growing earnings at 30% this year (normalizing to 10-15%) at a PE of 12x, backed by $1.13/share in net cash, paying you 6% in dividends while you hold, with a credible multi-year growth story in Australia and management that has delivered consistently. The risks are real but moderate and none of them threaten the business as a going concern.
The stock was a screaming buy at $6-7 when the PE was under 10x and the market hadn't recognized the Australian growth trajectory. At $10 the market has partially caught up but hasn't fully priced in the earnings upgrade this result implies. There's probably 10-20% upside to $11-12 as consensus estimates get revised up. There's maybe 10-15% downside to $8.50-9 if the macro deteriorates. That's a favorable skew but not a dramatic one.
If I had to put a number on fair value right now it's about $11, based on approximately 84c EPS on a 13x multiple, which is a slight premium to the historical average reflecting the stronger growth profile. The stock is about 10% below that.
If you own it: hold. The result confirms everything that's been working and the forward outlook is solid despite the chairman's appropriate caution.
If you're looking to buy: $10 is a reasonable entry point. You're not overpaying. You could wait for a pullback to $9 for a better margin of safety, but you might not get one given the trading momentum. Dollar-cost averaging in is sensible.
If you're looking to sell: there's no reason in this result to sell. The business is performing at or above expectations on every meaningful metric.
IMO, a 6% yield is not commensurate with the risk that all retail has, especially in these times. If you are a holder, continue to hold by all means - but buying at these levels is based on gambling on further capital growth which is far from certain. HLG have shown impressive, consistent growth but I am sceptical that the SP can continue to stay at these elevated levels much less continue to grow. There has been a pull back in recent times and the terribly low liquidity is another risk to bear in m ind if that pull-back takes hold due to economic uncertainty.
I'm an outlier on this thread for sure, but I'd be cautious in encouraging new buyers to enter the market at these levels at these times. Applies to a lot of NZ stocks, not just HLG.
I aee no reason why dividends can't be fully imputed in the future. Say 65 cps for the year rising to 72 cps next year. 72cps fully imputed is $1.00 share gross equals 10% gross prospective dividend for FY27.
I've seen this many times before. A.I. is useless at working out the gross yield with imputation credits.
Buying a business with a well proven CAGR of circa 12% on a forward PE of 12 is very deep value in my opinion. Otherwise a very good analysis from A I., thanks Entrep
The value of imputation credits is variable depending on the investors circumstances. That's probably why AI leaves it out in considering the yield. To be fair that's how it's done on most investment sites.
Invest direct gross it up. Analysts generally show gross yield. Anyway leaving that debate aside, I made a mistake earlier. It would take $6.7m in imputation credits to fully impute this dividend. Tax payable is $5.5m in N.Z. which if it weren't for timing issues around when the company pays it's tax would ordinarily have allowed an 82% imputation rate.
82% is the current rate to use in calculating medium term gross yield assumptions.
Due to these timing issues I am forecasting the final dividend for FY26 in December will be fully imputed.
72 cps for FY27 imputed at 82% gives 93.5 cps gross. On a share price of $9.85 that's a prospective yield of 9.5% gross.
Quote from: LoungeLizard on Mar 27, 2026, 12:04 PMThe value of imputation credits is variable depending on the investors circumstances. That's probably why AI leaves it out in considering the yield. To be fair that's how it's done on most investment sites.
Why, I thought that if you are on a lower tax rate you get a refund for excess imputation credits
Quote from: Dolcile on Mar 27, 2026, 01:14 PMWhy, I thought that if you are on a lower tax rate you get a refund for excess imputation credits
As I say, it depends on circumstances. If you live predominantly, or in my case, exclusively, on share investment income, and most of that is fully imputed, you may not have much tax paid yourself to apply the imputation credits against. I've been rolling over excess credits for some time. Maybe I should get a job?
NZX doesn't include imputation credits into their yield calculations (HLG on 6.79%). Nor does google or AI.
Rather confusingly ASB use a Net Yield. Still reckon the classic formula is easier for simplicity and consistency:
Dividend Yield = (Annual Dividends Per Share / Price Per Share) × 100.
I've done tens of thousands of tax returns over the last 45 years, far too many to count. Lizards situation is quite unusual and very rare. The vast majority of people are able to extract value from imputation credits, (the IRD are statue barred from refunding them), because they have other income taxed at source or other dividends that are unimputed and / or other dividends that have RWT deducted from them. Most retired investors are taxed on their superannuation so are able to get a portion of the tax deducted on that back using their imputation credits.
Small retail investors may want to keep things super simple so by all means just accept the face value yield. To me that's very simplistic and unhelpful. Clearly a dividend that has no tax credit attached at 6% yield leaves you fully exposed to tax and for some investors on a 39% tax rate that's only worth 3.66% net. To investment companies, (many professional investors own their shares in their own holding company), if its fully imputed a 6% dividend is worth the full 6% in the hand. Professional investors and institutions will be looking at the gross yield inclusive of the value of imputation credits regardless of how A.I., Google, the NZX or any other website or analysts report shows it.
Quote from: Basil on Mar 27, 2026, 02:38 PMI've done tens of thousands of tax returns over the last 45 years, far too many to count. Lizards situation is quite unusual and very rare. The vast majority of people are able to extract value from imputation credits, (the IRD are statue barred from refunding them), because they have other income taxed at source or other dividends that are unimputed and / or other dividends that have RWT deducted from them. Most retired investors are taxed on their superannuation so are able to get a portion of the tax deducted on that back using their imputation credits.
Small retail investors may want to keep things super simple so by all means just accept the face value yield. To me that's very simplistic and unhelpful. Clearly a dividend that has no tax credit attached at 6% yield leaves you fully exposed to tax and for some investors on a 39% tax rate that's only worth 3.66% net. To investment companies, (many professional investors own their shares in their own holding company), if its fully imputed a 6% dividend is worth the full 6% in the hand. Professional investors and institutions will be looking at the gross yield inclusive of the value of imputation credits regardless of how A.I., Google, the NZX or any other website or analysts report shows it.
Yes, possibly my situation is rare - I retired very early and I don't receive Superannuation as yet. If you are on a M tax rate then it's possible the tax on Super alone may soak up all your imputation credits. Depends on how much income you derive from dividends. As I say, simple is best and for the vast majority of "non-professiona" investors it's better in my opinion not to think about imputation credits when calculating yield. That of course doesn't stop anyone else from doing so. Each to their own.
Note HLG do include ICs in their dividend yield, they use trailing 12 months gross divs (including ICs) divided by prior day closing SP:
Code Ex Dividend Period Amount Imputation Total
HLG 04 Dec 25, NZDT Final 30.500 6.706 37.206
HLG 09 Apr 25, NZST Interim 24.500 3.856 28.356
65.562
SP COB 26/3 965.000
divs TTM 65.562
6.794%
I would say HLG offer a pretty decent return with good prospects for growth as well as some very strong recent evidence for their ability to deliver growth without blowing out their COB, which is harder than it sounds. Compare that with say BGP who offer a comparable (inferior) return but with limited prospects for growth. A well run company, but success for them is holding their place in an increasingly competitive market.
So I would agree that HLG is at least a hold, and also that there is a valid case for them being a buy too with a long term horizon. Retail is in for a bumpy ride when the downstream effects of the Middle East being on fire start to filter through to fuel prices and logistics costs (inflation).
Quote from: LoungeLizard on Mar 27, 2026, 01:55 PMAs I say, it depends on circumstances. If you live predominantly, or in my case, exclusively, on share investment income, and most of that is fully imputed, you may not have much tax paid yourself to apply the imputation credits against. I've been rolling over excess credits for some time. Maybe I should get a job?
May I zuggest another option.
Get yourself zome good quailty dividend paying Australian zhares. Zhey have minimal dividend vithholding tax deducted 'at zource',and you can use your 'NZ imputation credits' to top up ze top up 'NZ part of tax due' using ze dual tax agreement ve have vith ze Ozzies.
RB
Quote from: Red Baron on Mar 27, 2026, 03:52 PMMay I zuggest another option.
Get yourself zome good quailty dividend paying Australian zhares. Zhey have minimal dividend vithholding tax deducted 'at zource',and you can use your 'NZ imputation credits' to top up ze top up 'NZ part of tax due' using ze dual tax agreement ve have vith ze Ozzies.
RB
Interesting. Will look into it. Although tbh I'm not wanting to put much more into share markets anywhere at the moment. Aussie are better placed than NZ but a world wide recession/ market crash will sweep them aside along with everyone else.
And on that, I'd agree that HLG are a vigilant hold but not a buy. Not in the current climate. NZ economy is in deep doo-doo. We've been in a recession for so long but now face stagflationary constraints of no/low growth coupled with inflation. If the oil crisis gets worse and diesel in particular keeps going up, then that will be enough to set off a spiral downwards to goodness knows where. Cash is king, except for a few defensive stocks that pay a reasonable yield.
HLG have proven to be very resilient over the incredibly difficult years of Covid and the endless recession this decade. Nobody is denying the current toxic geopolitical situation is not a concern but some stocks are far more resilient than others. Its helps a lot not having any debt and the fact that they've taken a sure and steady approach to store expansion over the years. This company is run very conservatively and prudently and its better placed than most others to weather the challenges.
Interesting article in the Herald today about Chargenet putting their prices up for electric charging. The interesting bit was that people are coping with the 30% increase in the cost of fuel by choosing to drive 20% less. People will adapt, just like they had to adapt during Covid and the endless recession in N.Z. throughout which some companies like TRA and HLG have shone through as beacons of resilience and operational excellence.
Anyway...here's how the HLG result is being reported in the Herald https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/companies/retail/hallenstein-glassons-profit-jumps-32-as-sales-surge-to-275m/AORSB6KGRNAF7C6TWLUM3775KA/
Last comment. Macroeconomics trumps everything. It doesn't matter how well run the company is, when the market crashes it takes everything with it. May not happen of course, but I'm happy to sit this one out for now. Holding but not accumulating.
How the segments performed H126 v H125
In total $21.1m came from selling more stuff and $6.1m for making more on those sales
Expenses were $17.3m higher - mainly from Glassons AU
So NPBT up $9.8m on last year - with NZ being the star performers
Table in $m
Screenshot 2026-03-27 181336.png
It's very nice that all segments are showing profit growth.
A lot of chat about current volatility. It will blow over. This is a multi decade investment for me.
Updated this cool chart - F26 is forecast $50m
Come what may -Asian Financial Crisis, Global Finance Crisis, Earthquakes, Recessions, Pandemics and market changes etc etc etc HLG has stood resolute and never lost money this century
Again - the Di impact is obvious
Screenshot 2026-03-28 091535.png
HLG might not have lost money but I certainly did after I'd bought in Nov 2019. The pandemic hit, and the price dropped from just under $6 to $1.60 as I recall. Turners dropped to 1.20 abouts too.
I jumped back in and used all the spare cash I had. Good times.
Repost
Glassons AU the star of the show ....chart has forecast F26 sales
Easy to see the Di Humphries impact - and good that James kept the momentum going
Screenshot 2026-03-28 084512.png
I just walked past my local Glassons store. Good to see it humming with young women at 10am !
Somebody mentioned a while ago they were slightly disappointed that online sales were still only about 18% of sales
%age slowly creeping up but at the end of the day its a respectable number and highlights the good balance the sales model has between instore and online activity
Online will be back over $100m annual sales soon
Chart shows how important that good online model was during the pandemic
Screenshot 2026-03-28 110813.png
No question James Glasson is doing an outstanding job. Glassons Au sales were $50m for FY17 and since coming on board in October 2017 he has driven a six fold increase in sales there which are on track to be approx $300m this year.
He has completly transformed the company from a no growth cyclical N.Z retailer predominantly focused on the N.Z market to be a well proven Australasian growth company with huge growth in Australia over the last 9 years and a very long runway of growth ahead over the next 20 years.
Its also clear he's been working closely with April and mentoring her, who runs Glassons N.Z and we're now seeing the fruits of that collaborative approach with Glassons N Z. profits. I am sure James and April get brilliant advice from Tim Glasson and are well supported by other board members. Very deep experience on the board which is a key ingredient of the secret sauce that makes this company so sucessful.
Looking forward to seeing the growth over the next 10 years and hope I live long enough to see the growth over the next 20-30 years.
I checked with the CFO and he confirmed the low imputation credit level this time is a timing issue regarding tax payment dates.
Perhaps you could ask for them to show a video of their new warehouse "picking" in operation at their next ASM.
At last year's ASM the lady chief designer was present .
A lot of very skilled HLG people at the ASM,not only the board ,CFO,CEOs,but senior management such as warehouse manager Sam Glasson,all ready to talk to shareholders.
As I pointed out once before all questions receive full answers.
Quote from: winner (n) on Mar 28, 2026, 10:46 AMRepost
Glassons AU the star of the show ....chart has forecast F26 sales
Easy to see the Di Humphries impact - and good that James kept the momentum going
Screenshot 2026-03-28 084512.png
Sorry mate, I looked really hard and all I can see is the sales growth since James Glassons started in the FY18 year. Looks quite flat before then but I'm sure Di Humpheries did a decent job of laying the foundations for growth.
Good idea about the video Lorriana.
Di Humphries do a great job turning Glassons around
Di Humphries has been credited with a successful turnaround for Glassons, as the company has seen significant improvements in sales and profit. Hallenstein Glasson reported a 7% increase in sales and a 25% increase in profit in the year ended August 1, 2016.
Humphries' leadership was instrumental in restoring profitability and boosting the brand's performance. Her return to the company in April 2016 was seen as a key factor in the turnaround, and she has been praised for her ability to lead a transformational change and build an effective management team.
Di left late 2017 and James took over running AU ..... the foundations were in place and he has carried on after Di's good work. Good on him
2017 annual report here https://www.hallensteinglasson.co.nz/annual-report/2017
See page 4. Interesting how cyclical eps was...no growth. Also interesting how they consistently paid each year more in DPS than EPS. Strong cashflow of the company enables that.
What I find fascinating is that the PE of the company simply has not really budged since I first bought in back in August 2016 at $2.70. EPS that year was 22.9 cps so the PE I bought a cyclical no growth company on was 11.7. Bought it as a dividend stock, was yielding 15% gross at the time. Never expected any growth but its funny how things work out sometimes eh.
Here we are 9.5 years later, proof of growth is unquestionable. If they make say 85 cps for FY26 compared to 23 cps in 2016 that's a ten year proven EPS CAGR of 13.96% and yet the shares are still on the same dirt cheap PE. Go figure ? That's a faster EPS CAGR rate than Turners and over a time period of nearly twice as long since "Tina" started driving strong EPS growth for Turners in 2020. HLG by my contention is probably the most underrated, underpriced and misunderstood well proven growth company on either the NZX or ASX.
The headwinds in the current period that may extend further will not be easy to navigate but we have an extremely talented management team, vast experience on the board, the company has no debt and has never been in a better position to weather any storm with $1.13 per share in cash on hand.
Quote from: Ferg on Feb 11, 2026, 11:26 AMWhoops - picked up the wrong sentiment graph - here it is up to Jan '26:
HGL_Sentiment_Jan2026-v2 - Copy.JPG
Quote from: Ferg on Feb 11, 2026, 11:26 AMWhoops - picked up the wrong sentiment graph - here it is up to Jan '26:
HGL_Sentiment_Jan2026-v2 - Copy.JPG
Basil ....Fergs chart seems to be saying that HLG PE radio is expanding from its mean ...... in recognition of its performance.
But still on a PE of 12/13 ...... still voting and not weighing?
I don't want to comment on that other than to say based on my deep value GARP screening formula HLG with a proven CAGR of 14 % would be good value right up to a forward PE of 22.5.
Clearly a company growing at 14% per annum is worth substantially higher metrics than when it wasn't growing 10 years ago.
Market pricing HLG like it's still a no growth cyclical N.Z. retailer despite all the evidence that's no longer the case.
Its been a very rewarding hold for the last ten years and I think its going to be even more rewarding in the next ten as earnings growth and some metrics expansion kick in.
Deserves to be on the same metrics as TRA in my opinion.
Growth rate 14% divided by PE of 14.89 gives a PEG of 1.06.
Just over 1 is very modest for a such a well run company with such a solid balance sheet paying a gross yield of 6.79% [NZX site] net yield of 5.58% [ASB site],and a lot of future growth in Australia..
HLG amazing stock / margin management is key to their success
Stock turn over 7 and Gross Margin over 60% of sales.
This leads to every $1 of stock generating $10.96 of Gross Profit - huge return on investment eh
Most other retailers manage $2 to $3 - Universal in OZ quite good at $6.55
World class
For interest sake comparative numbers
Screenshot 2026-03-29 095634.png
Great posts
Just one small thing to add, I see there are $4.1m of commitments disclosed in note 6 compared to zero this time last year.
I looks like expansion continues :-)
Have I got this right ..... based on last 2 divies (Final FY25 and one just announced) the gross dividend is 69.9 cents giving a gross yield of 7.1% at Fridays share price of $9.85
Suppose better than the 3.8% for 1 Year or 4.8% for 5 years that Rabobank would give me.....but HLG share price going a lot higher so no worries
Somehow I thought HLG yield was higher
Your math's is correct Winner.
Very low imputation credits for the last dividend and this one is a function of poor N.Z. profits last year and the timing of tax payments regarding this year's much improved profit.
I expect the imputation level will be much improved going forward but that's dependent on N.Z. operations maintaining a healthy level of profitability.
By way of comparison TRA's forecast gross yield this year is 5.3% but just like HLG it's important to consider not just the current yield but the way it's grown over the years and the excellent prospects for sustained growth going forward.
There seems to be room to improve the payout ratio even allowing for growth. That cash has to go somewhere...
Quote from: winner (n) on Mar 29, 2026, 03:29 PMHave I got this right ..... based on last 2 divies (Final FY25 and one just announced) the gross dividend is 69.9 cents giving a gross yield of 7.1% at Fridays share price of $9.85
Suppose better than the 3.8% for 1 Year or 4.8% for 5 years that Rabobank would give me.....but HLG share price going a lot higher so no worries
Somehow I thought HLG yield was higher
Given the surging profitability it is more reasonable to estimate the future final dividend rather than use fy25 final.
Forbar today.
EPS* (NZc) 66.2 85.5 95.1 102.7
DPS (NZc) 55.0 68.5 76.0 82.0
Imputation (%) 57 47 43 40
*Based on normalised profits
link
Valuation (x) 25A 26E 27E 28E
PE 14.9 11.5 10.4 9.6
EV/EBIT 9.6 7.4 6.7 6.3
EV/EBITDA 5.7 4.8 4.3 4.1
Price / NTA 5.3 4.6 4.2 3.8
Cash div yld (%) 5.6 7.0 7.7 8.3
Gross div yld (%) 6.8 8.2 9.0 9.6
We continue to view the risk–reward as attractive: (1) we forecast three-year EPS growth CAGR of +16% while trading on an undemanding c.11x one-year forward PE; and (2) we forecast a partially imputed 7.0% FY26 cash dividend. OUTPERFORM.
Target price: Increased +2% to NZ$12.80.
Basil - your deep value GARP screening methodology seems to disappoint you when it comes to high yield stocks, esp those that have a high payout ratio
Companies that have high payout ratios and above average dividend yields tend to have lower than expected/warranted PE ratios - mainly because they are seen as a yield stock rather than a growth stock.
HLG falls into this category. High payout ratio and not much in way of retained earnings.... and then we get back to that argument that Price Book might be a more relevant valuation method
Over time HLG has traded at at PB ratio between 3 to 5 times Book Value - currently just over 5 times
Interesting that BV (Shareholder Equity) has grown at 5% pa over the last 5 years..... some would say that 5 times BV is a reasonable price to pay today ...irrespective of future growth prospects
Very happy with my methodology Winner which has worked extremely well over the long run and filters out a lot of rubbish as well as highlighting many over priced market darlings.
I'm always thinking ahead. Caveat is of course the current geopolitical situation but a next year (FY27) PE ot 10.4 and gross yield of 9% are compelling metrics for a company with a proven 10 year CAGR in EPS of 14% and an outlook of more of the same.
Quote from: Basil on Mar 30, 2026, 09:45 AMVery happy with my methodology Winner which has worked extremely well over the long run and filters out a lot of rubbish as well as highlighting many over priced market darlings.
I'm always thinking ahead. Caveat is of course the current geopolitical situation but a next year (FY27) PE ot 10.4 and gross yield of 9% are compelling metrics for a company with a proven 10 year CAGR in EPS of 14% and an outlook of more of the same.
Fair enough as it screens out the rubbish
Just seems that it often frustrates you when stocks like HLG and TRA don't trade at where the formula says they could be at
By frustrating do you mean backing up the truck on TRA at $3.50 less than 3 years ago when nobody wanted it and now it's $8.50 ? Happy to "tolerate" that sort of frustration anytime lol
HLG has nearly quadrupled in price since I first bought in but the opportunity is still very clear in my opinion.
That said, The orange baffoon in the whitehouse is frustrating, that's for sure.
From the AFR: Half a million young workers to get up to 42pc pay increase
https://archive.ph/20260331002612/https://www.afr.com/work-and-careers/workplace/landmark-ruling-abolishes-junior-pay-rates-20260331-p5zk6q
Big positive for the customer base (particularly as petrol rises), though a CODB headwind for the business.
Copy and paste whole hyperlink above as the click will not work for some reason.
Most interesting thing in my opinion from Forsyth Barr's latest note is that HLG currently trades on a two year forward PE of 10, well below its 20 year median of 11.7, (remembering that median encapsulates 10 years of data (2006-2016) from when HLG was ostensibly a no growth N.Z. retailer).
Not only is its cheap compared to its 20 year average metrics, its outstandingly so relative to its most recent 10 year EPS CAGR of 14%, (assumes they make 85 cps this year).
My conclusion. In the current price none of the transformative change brought on by the exceptional growth with Glassons Au in the last 9 years is reflected in the current metrics. i.e it almost beggars belief the market is still treating HLG as a no growth N.Z. retailer. I think if things settle down in the Middle East maybe there's a real opportunity here for those not already well positioned ? FB forecasting 60% of group sales will be Glassons Au by FY28. Hallensteins Au sales are additional to that. https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/HALLENSTEIN-GLASSON-HOLDI-6495564/consensus/
And the kanga's have just halved there petrol levies!!! They understand that shopping matters? wonder when wellington will understand what matter most... The mount is dead and its the biggest tourist stop on that coast...
Is NZ actually still in recession?
Nice close with HLG rightfully priced over $10 per share. Onwards and upwards.
Lets hope so and hope and pray the 2 week ceasefire is the beginning of a lasting peace. Very small top up of HLG by me today. Trading cum a 29 cent divvy that due to be paid in "5 minutes" time, $10.15 is really a little less than $10 on a forward earnings ex divvy basis.
Hallensteins CEO bought 3,500 shares the other day
I'm told it's always a good sign when insiders buy
https://announcements.nzx.com/attachment/466851.pdf
Alvaro seemed rather proud of this achievement -
Hallensteins is now featured in GQ Magazine! This is a significant moment for us as we continue to establish our presence in the Australian menswear scene.
https://www.gq.com.au/partner-content/editorial/one-of-new-zealands-most-beloved-menswear-labels-is-coming-across-the-ditch/news-story/55e76a0ef75fe204746732df8e590f09
I see that ex CEO Chris Kincaid is now CFO of NZ Rugby
Quote from: winner (n) on Apr 20, 2026, 03:57 PMAlvaro seemed rather proud of this achievement -
Hallensteins is now featured in GQ Magazine! This is a significant moment for us as we continue to establish our presence in the Australian menswear scene.
https://www.gq.com.au/partner-content/editorial/one-of-new-zealands-most-beloved-menswear-labels-is-coming-across-the-ditch/news-story/55e76a0ef75fe204746732df8e590f09
Good stuff. Its easy to forget about the growth potential of Hallensteins in Australia because a lot of attention is focused on the stellar growth Glassons is enjoying there. Looking forward to dividend payment date this Friday.
Oh goody, dividend payment day tomorrow just in time for the long weekend.
Quote from: Basil on Apr 20, 2026, 04:22 PMGood stuff. Its easy to forget about the growth potential of Hallensteins in Australia because a lot of attention is focused on the stellar growth Glassons is enjoying there. Looking forward to dividend payment date this Friday.
I'm on holiday in Nelson atm and wandered into the Hallensteins store this afternoon. I was greeted by a friendly young female staff member who, when I took a sweatshirt to the counter to pay, promptly upsold me to buy a 2nd one. She told my wife she loves working at Hallensteins, it's made her a more confident person and benefited her in other aspects of her life. It's no wonder they are doing well if all their staff are as bright and breezy as this young woman.
I'm looking forward to that chunky dividend on Friday. Mine is taking me to New York and Rome later this year.
The juicy HLG divvie has just arrived in my bank account!
Good stuff Pierre. I'm sure you'll have a fabulous European holiday knowing that HLG are paying for it.
Watching last nights network news I was very pleased to hear that Labour are taking a pragmatic approach and supporting the India free trade agreement. Great for the economy, (frankly our economy needs all the help it can get), but more on point, some shareholders will recall that the Chairman Warren Bell commented at the last annual meeting that the proposed FTA with India would be very beneficial for HLG.
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2604/S00382/businessnz-congratulates-labour-for-backing-india-deal.htm
RWT took a decent chunk out of that divie eh
Suppose somebody has to help the government out so shouldn't complain
With most of the earnings coming from Australia, HLG not in a position to attach full imputation credits to dividends paid, hence the higher RWT deduction than would be the case with a fully imputed dividend.
Quote from: Southern Lad on Apr 24, 2026, 09:43 PMWith most of the earnings coming from Australia, HLG not in a position to attach full imputation credits to dividends paid, hence the higher RWT deduction than would be the case with a fully imputed dividend.
Quite correct but that's only part of the story. I've been through this with HLG management and for shareholders information this is the situation.
1. In simple terms you generally cannot grant imputation credits with dividends unless the tax has already been paid and credited to the imputation credit account, (ICA). There are exceptions to this rule as the ICA account is not allowed to be in debit as at balance date, otherwise a 10% penalty applies but its okay during the year, however its clear HLG don't want to get "over their ski's" with the ICA account possibly going into debit. I think its a shame they didn't pay some tax early or temporarily allow the ICA account to go into overdraft but that's possibly a different discussion for a different time.
2. There is only 4 short months between when they paid the December dividend and the April one and in that timeframe HLG only make one payment of provisional tax.
3. N.Z. profitability for the half year incurred a N.Z. tax liability of $5.521m.
4. The dividend paid was imputed to only 32.7%.
5. Full imputation would have incurred a debit to the ICA of $6.7m
6. If it weren't for timing issues of when N.Z. tax was paid / is payable they would have been able to attach imputation credits at the rate of $5.521m / $6.7m =
82.4%. This is the best guide to the imputation rate we have going forward over the medium term and is considerably higher than analysts are currently forecasting. (Its clear to me they're not accountants and haven't put a great deal of thought into this). e.g Forsyth Barr are forecasting 47% imputation level for FY26 and 43% for FY27. Generally their analysis with HLG, I consider to be very good but they are too conservative with their imputation forecasts in my opinion.
7. By the time they come to pay the December 2026 dividend they will have paid the ~ $3.5m terminal tax liability sitting in the balance sheet at the half year point plus two further installments of provisional tax so the ICA account will be in credit to the tune of a robust amount such that it is highly likely the final dividend will be fully imputed and April 2027's dividend may also be able to be either highly imputed or fully imputed.
Caveat to this is, (seasonal effects aside) that N.Z. profitability going forward and the tax impost on same is not dramatically different than what is was in the first half.
My opinion. While many will feel the pain of a high level of RWT deducted from this dividend, as am I, its well worth noting a couple of things:-
a) Imputation credits attached to future dividends going forward should be dramatically higher in the short term and considerably higher in the medium term.
b) The payout ratio of this dividend as a percentage of EPS during the period is one of the very lowest on record, (conservative positioning for readily apparent risks and low imputation capability is the two most likely reasons I see for this), and the company has a record ever cash balance so some encouragement should be taken in terms of the final dividend for 2026. My estimate is 35 cps fully imputed. Forsyth Barr are forecasting 68.5 cps for FY26 which would suggest a final dividend of 39.5 cps, 76 and 82 cps for the following 2 years. I think its likely the company can easily pay these forecasted dividends but I think they will keep more back for growth and the new roboticized warehouse in Australia is a prelude to a likely expansion in the store growth rate there is how I see it. 3-5 additional stores per annum up from 2 is where I see things going in Australia, not necessarily all Glassons, could be a Hallensteins store each year in the mix too.
Forsyth Barr in their note of 30 March 2026 are forecasting eps of 85.5 cps for FY26 rising to 95.1 cps and $1.027 in the following 2 years. Fair value how they see it is $12.80, rating Outperform. Research note is titled "Dressed to Impress"
I think that's a great title, (and fair value price target) and notwithstanding the prevailing uncertainty caused by geopolitical events, its unwise to underestimate the target demographic of 13-30 years old continuing desire to want to get out there dressed nicely and peacock around and impress others and make valuable social connections that will benefit them for life. The target demographic thinks differently to some of us old buggers and that's something to keep in mind, in my opinion.
Just my musings for the long weekend. Might head out and spend some of yesterday's dividend tomorrow.
Thanks Basil for the additional colour.
One clarification - Income Tax legislation requires companies to operate an imputation year with a 31 March year end, which is the date the imputation credit account must not be in debit to avoid the 10% penalty. The balance date (1 August in the case of HLG) isn't relevant other than impacting the dates that provisional and terminal tax is due. For an August balance date, provisional tax instalment dates are January, May and September, with terminal tax due in April.
Worth noting that if Forsyth Barr are correct about 76 cps in dividends in FY27 at an 82% imputation rate that's just on 98 cps gross = approx 10% gross yield.
Keep in mind EPS has been growing in the low teens for the last decade so not only is the yield superb but so are the prospects for growth in EPS and DPS.
Pretty solid update from UNI in OZ bodes well for HLG continued growth
RBA put rates up to 4.35% today .....judt as well most Glassons customers don't have mortgages
I think the gas prices are a bigger issue. Although it might be more relevant to Halenstines than Glassons. Might be stereotyping but I'd wager the average car fuel efficiency is significantly better on Glassons customers and alot less diesel users. The Glassons in botany still had a stream of people going in and out last weekend...
Quote from: winner (n) on May 05, 2026, 06:05 PMPretty solid update from UNI in OZ bodes well for HLG continued growth
RBA put rates up to 4.35% today .....judt as well most Glassons customers don't have mortgages
Well spotted mate. "The Group's YTD performance is very pleasing given current geopolitical and
economic uncertainties. Despite these macro-economic conditions, we have not
seen a material shift in sales trends across the Group in this period."
Briscoes sales update the other day was also pretty solid. Maybe its just old buggers like us that worry about geopolitical events and the young ones are still out and about spending and peacocking around like they always have been. Certainly retail in N.Z. has been extremely tough for more than 6 years now since Covid hit and yet HLG sales have grown very nicely indeed over the years.
HLG's target market Gen Z very optimistic about the year ahead, significantly more so than other age groups.
https://www.news.com.au/finance/money/young-australians-back-themselves-to-beat-costofliving-crunch/news-story/2bed848015bbd86ca9f198fce5991928
13-30 year old's love getting out there dressed nicely to peacock around no matter what's going on in the world. The social media pressure to look their best is relentless and HLG has their back with stylish clothes at an affordable price.
Some market research .... Australian women's apparel market is currently valued at roughly AUD 17+ billion and is projected to grow at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 6.88%.
Jeez add market share gains for Glassons along with what Basil mentioned above re Gen Z no reason not to assume Glassons will grow by 15%/20% pa in the forseeable future
sssshhh I've been taking advantage of the recent weakness to top-up!