Are we there yet? Markets don't like to get too far away from their long term trend lines, hence the periodic corrections to bring them back. Have we unwound the complete insanity of the Covid period? Not by a long shot.
The S&P500
S&P500Sept22.png
You may well be right. The MMTH Chart though paints a slightly less pessimistic view... sort of :)
In the down phase of a bear market cycle, selling from retail investors is a precondition for hitting the Panic and Capitulation phases. It hasnt happened yet, but looks to be starting. The reason it hasnt happened yet is because the mega-cap stocks have been holding up the indices, and pretty much everyone from hedge funds to retail have been invested in the mega-caps, so while there has been absolute destruction in the smaller cap stocks over the last 18 months, particularly the expensive "growthy" ones, the index falls have been pretty mild so far. But last week Apple broke, and where Apple goes, so goeth retail .....
Fd7_5smXEAsrdpT.jfif
I concur.
"The action coming from individual stocks is dismal, the indexes are dominated by distribution days and our risk models remain bearish. There is nothing more to be said... for now, cash is king!"
https://twitter.com/markminervini/status/1579487273821040642
Quote from: KW on Oct 11, 2022, 06:13 PMI concur.
"The action coming from individual stocks is dismal, the indexes are dominated by distribution days and our risk models remain bearish. There is nothing more to be said... for now, cash is king!"
https://twitter.com/markminervini/status/1579487273821040642
You might be right .... but lets not forget ... holding cash costs you not just the opportunity costs for missing rises, but as well the price of inflation. And to add insult to injury you have to pay taxes for interest rates which are below inflation.
Gosh Dow up 700. Apple up $11. This will be the fourth week of gains for the Dow. False rally or start of upswing?
This is a very good video explanation of the reverse bullwhip effect that is currently playing out globally. Well worth watching
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5cqc5dQaiGg
This is one of my favourite charts (new high/new low) - as you can see, the change from bull to bear was pretty obvious in November 2021. And despite a few bear market rallies since then, we are still in the bear market.
Patience, grasshoppers!
sc.png
The hi/lo chart has finally gone positive. Whether its another bear market rally or the beginning of a new bull, only time will tell. However, it does mean that its probably time to dip one's toes back in the water, and buy stocks in uptrends. As always, have stops in place in case this turns out to be a temporary rally hilojan2023.png
Hi/Lo chart still in the Buy zone. This chart is remarkably prescient.
[url="https://stocktalk.co.nz/index.php?action=dlattach;attach=604;type=preview;file"]hilofeb23[/url]
We are still in the buy zone according to the Hi/Lo chart. Another chart that has been pretty good at indicating market sentiment is bitcoin. Who knew that its real raison d'être was as an equity market indicator ;D
When looking for trends you should look for multiple confirmations from multiple sources. Think outside the box and don't just rely on major market indices. Indices are lagging indicators - by the time they move the move may already be 80% over. This is because they are too heavily weighted to a small number of mega cap stocks (like the Nasdaq), or they have highly cyclical stocks that take over when normal equities start declining (like the miners in the ASX200 and energy in the Dow). So where you really want to look is "under the bonnet" so to speak.
Bitcoin has turned out to be highly correlated with the "everything" bubble, and without any fundamentals to support it, it is really a pure play technical indicator, measuring market participant sentiment and funds flow into and out of, a high risk asset. Without any fundamentals like earnings surprises or any megacap stock to influence it, it should be a more responsive risk indicator than the Nasdaq.
Bitcoin is approaching a major level of resistance - if it breaks down here this may signal the end of the bear market rally, if it goes higher still that's a signal that its still go for risk assets like tech/fintech/biotech/high growth stocks.
screenshot-www.tradingview.com-2023.02.21-09_49_44.png
The Hi/Lo chart has now had 3 negative days, and Bitcoin has hit that resistance level and turned down. Time to be alert but not [yet] alarmed. Act on invididual stock signals.
screenshot-stockcharts.com-2023.02.24-11_04_20.png
Not looking good folks. The Dow, S&P500 and Nasdaq have all dropped below their 50 and 200 day moving averages. Bitcoin is tanking. VIX is up 18% today.
Time to bank profits and reduce risk. 6% interest on cash in the bank is starting to look good. Unless your bank is Silvergate, Silicon Valley, Credit Suisse or JP Morgan lol. Is this the start of the systemic bear market meltdown and financial contagion? Who knows, but why stick around to find out?
screenshot-stockcharts.com-2023.03.10-11_08_54.png
Quote from: KW on Mar 10, 2023, 11:12 AMNot looking good folks. The Dow, S&P500 and Nasdaq have all dropped below their 50 and 200 day moving averages. Bitcoin is tanking. VIX is up 18% today.
Time to bank profits and reduce risk. 6% interest on cash in the bank is starting to look good. Unless your bank is Silvergate, Silicon Valley, Credit Suisse or JP Morgan lol. Is this the start of the systemic bear market meltdown and financial contagion? Who knows, but why stick around to find out?
screenshot-stockcharts.com-2023.03.10-11_08_54.png
Most long term investors will be unfazed, why sell any stocks in fundamentally sound companies for any substantial loss when you don't have or need to. Remember no where is safe if a nuke button is pressed or something else similar comes along.
Quote from: Breezy on Mar 10, 2023, 01:22 PMMost long term investors will be unfazed, why sell any stocks in fundamentally sound companies for any substantial loss when you don't have or need to. Remember no where is safe if a nuke button is pressed or something else similar comes along.
I'm selling so I can bank my profits before they all disappear into thin air. They were hard earned this year. Then I will wait for the bear market to be over, or for another bear market rally to kick off.
Quote from: KW on Mar 10, 2023, 01:40 PMI'm selling so I can bank my profits before they all disappear into thin air. They were hard earned this year. Then I will wait for the bear market to be over, or for another bear market rally to kick off.
Well yes if you can do that then all good but I'm guessing a lot of people are seriously in the red atm.
Quote from: Breezy on Mar 10, 2023, 02:00 PMWell yes if you can do that then all good but I'm guessing a lot of people are seriously in the red atm.
They've clearly not been following my Momentum Investing thread ;D
Quote from: KW on Mar 10, 2023, 02:15 PMThey've clearly not been following my Momentum Investing thread ;D
Dont you mean Momentum trading, after all your intention and motive is purely to make a profit not to collect dividends.
Quote from: Breezy on Mar 10, 2023, 02:25 PMDont you mean Momentum trading, after all your intention and motive is purely to make a profit not to collect dividends.
Nope. My intention is to remain invested, so long as the market is amenable. Investing doesnt mean being forced to lose money because you won't sell. It is intention at the time of purchase that is relevant to the distinction between investing and trading, not when and why you sell. Like Mayard Keynes said "when the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do Sir?"
Or his actual direct quote ....
"Unfortunately, it is not possible to make oneself permanently secure by any policy of inaction whatever. The idea which some people seem to entertain that an active policy involves taking more risks than an inactive policy is exactly the opposite of the truth. The inactive investor who takes up an obstinate attitude about his holdings and refuses to change his opinion merely because facts and circumstances have changed is the one who in the long run comes to grievous loss."
Quote from: KW on Mar 10, 2023, 03:20 PMNope. My intention is to remain invested, so long as the market is amenable. Investing doesnt mean being forced to lose money because you won't sell. It is intention at the time of purchase that is relevant to the distinction between investing and trading, not when and why you sell. Like Mayard Keynes said "when the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do Sir?"
Or his actual direct quote ....
"Unfortunately, it is not possible to make oneself permanently secure by any policy of inaction whatever. The idea which some people seem to entertain that an active policy involves taking more risks than an inactive policy is exactly the opposite of the truth. The inactive investor who takes up an obstinate attitude about his holdings and refuses to change his opinion merely because facts and circumstances have changed is the one who in the long run comes to grievous loss."
Whatever your happy with and can justify in the event of a tax audit i guess, the question is would your intention stack up in the light of your subsequent actions? I'm not the one you have to convince.
Quote from: Breezy on Mar 10, 2023, 03:31 PMWhatever your happy with and can justify in the event of a tax audit i guess, the question is would your intention stack up in the light of your subsequent actions? I'm not the one you have to convince.
I've been audited and there were no issues. Intention is not determined at the time of sale by hindsight, its what is provable at the time of purchase. Subsequent actions are not material if the reason for those actions did not exist at the time of purchase. If I purchase shares in the belief that we are in a new bull market, and that my capital is safely invested, and it turns out that I am wrong, and my capital is now significantly at risk, selling those shares to preserve my capital does not suddenly make me "in the business of trading" assets.
Quote from: KW on Mar 10, 2023, 03:44 PMI've been audited and there were no issues. Intention is not determined at the time of sale by hindsight, its what is provable at the time of purchase. Subsequent actions are not material if the reason for those actions did not exist at the time of purchase. If I purchase shares in the belief that we are in a new bull market, and that my capital is safely invested, and it turns out that I am wrong, and my capital is now significantly at risk, selling those shares to preserve my capital does not suddenly make me "in the business of trading" assets.
We are ALL in the business of trading assets, its just the time-frame in selling those assetts that differs. A CGT captures ALL those intentions and timeframes and does away with any grey tax law like we have in NZ, not that I'm in favour of a CGT but I can see its almost universal appeal to Governments.
Its been a while, but the hi/lo chart has finally gone positive again. This indicates that some breadth is returning to the market, and the smaller stocks (ie. everything except the mega cap tech stocks) are finally moving in the right direction.
Much depending on the outcome of US debt ceiling discussions and the Republicans motives before I'm bullish.
Probably wise. Some stocks are starting to look like they are pricing in recession - retail stocks in particular. Companies like PMV and LOV (best in class) have now broken trend and are back trading below their 200 day MA.
Over in the US both the Dow and Dow Transports are below their 200 day MA, although the Dow is not as broken as the Transports, but Dow Theory says they need to be in sync, and it looks more probable that the Dow will catch down to the Transports rather than the other way round.
Hi/Lo is back in the red, so this may have been signalling a market top rather than a change in trend. Balanced against this is that new market leaders always "climb a wall of worry" to start a new bull market, although in the current case the new leaders appear to be the same as the old leaders :-\ . This is what happens when you allow all the big tech companies to buy up all the smaller tech companies and control everything.
If the market comes out of it quickly, and the hi/lo goes back to being positive in a few days/weeks, then one can assume that this is just a correction, not a new bear leg.
Looks like the rally is in full swing (at least in the US) with a strong positive move on the Hi/Lo last night. My gut tells me the ASX is picking up as well, with some big moves in beaten down stocks that have now had the time to form bases from which to break out of. I'm opening positions again 8)
screenshot-stockcharts.com-2023.06.03-12_09_48.png
Quote from: KW on Jun 03, 2023, 12:42 PMLooks like the rally is in full swing (at least in the US) with a strong positive move on the Hi/Lo last night. My gut tells me the ASX is picking up as well, with some big moves in beaten down stocks that have now had the time to form bases from which to break out of. I'm opening positions again 8)
screenshot-stockcharts.com-2023.06.03-12_09_48.png
Actually - no need to look that far across the oceans ...
While many of my European stocks are already for months in the "green zone" (above MA200) and US now following (as you indicated), I noticed as well for a number of NZ stocks green shoots.
Some listed properties (e.g. Argosy) breaking out of falling wedges ... and some retirement stocks (e.g. ARV) already above MA200.
Spring coming early this year? Maybe the impact of global warming ;)
Quote from: BlackPeter on Jun 03, 2023, 02:44 PMActually - no need to look that far across the oceans ...
While many of my European stocks are already for months in the "green zone" (above MA200) and US now following (as you indicated), I noticed as well for a number of NZ stocks green shoots.
Some listed properties (e.g. Argosy) breaking out of falling wedges ... and some retirement stocks (e.g. ARV) already above MA200.
Spring coming early this year? Maybe the impact of global warming ;)
I know, the DAX is at all time highs! And I thought there was a war on LOL
Hopefully Spring has Sprung. I am cautiously optimistic, and mindful of the old adage "a bull market climbs a wall of worry" so you cant wait until all the worries are gone (debt ceiling, recession, war, inflation). Now its about being "well positioned" ;D
I invest mainly in high growth stocks so really need the US market to fire to give a tailwind to the ASX growth sectors. And the money flow has to come in to stocks other than the mega caps (hence the focus on market breadth). With interest rates looking at or close to peak, and cuts on the horizon now, that tailwind for growth stocks looks to have arrived.
I am looking for low-debt strong balance sheet companies during uncertain period like today. I like tomorrow's darlings. High ROE, Cash flow and Great Value are my friends
Quote from: KW on Jun 03, 2023, 04:49 PMI know, the DAX is at all time highs! And I thought there was a war on LOL
Hopefully Spring has Sprung. I am cautiously optimistic, and mindful of the old adage "a bull market climbs a wall of worry" so you cant wait until all the worries are gone (debt ceiling, recession, war, inflation). Now its about being "well positioned" ;D
I invest mainly in high growth stocks so really need the US market to fire to give a tailwind to the ASX growth sectors. And the money flow has to come in to stocks other than the mega caps (hence the focus on market breadth). With interest rates looking at or close to peak, and cuts on the horizon now, that tailwind for growth stocks looks to have arrived.
Michael Burry of "The Big Short' fame is forecasting a market crash.
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/15/investing/michael-burry-stock-market-crash/index.html
Michael Burry, the "Big Short" investor who became famous for correctly predicting the epic collapse of the housing market in 2008, has bet more than $1.6 billion on a Wall Street crash.
Burry is making his bearish bets against the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, according to Security Exchange Commission filings released Monday. Burry's fund, Scion Asset Management, bought $866 million in put options (that's the right to sell an asset at a particular price) against a fund that tracks the S&P 500 and $739 million in put options against a fund that tracks the Nasdaq 100.
Burry is using more than 90% of his portfolio to bet on a market downturn, according to the filings.
Quote from: Left Field on Aug 16, 2023, 03:41 PMMichael Burry of "The Big Short' fame is forecasting a market crash.
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/08/15/investing/michael-burry-stock-market-crash/index.html
Michael Burry, the "Big Short" investor who became famous for correctly predicting the epic collapse of the housing market in 2008, has bet more than $1.6 billion on a Wall Street crash.
Burry is making his bearish bets against the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, according to Security Exchange Commission filings released Monday. Burry's fund, Scion Asset Management, bought $866 million in put options (that's the right to sell an asset at a particular price) against a fund that tracks the S&P 500 and $739 million in put options against a fund that tracks the Nasdaq 100.
Burry is using more than 90% of his portfolio to bet on a market downturn, according to the filings.
https://reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/s/UrItelknZh
Re. Michael Burry. Is it really 90% of his portfolio in real terms. Big call...don't really care to check. He tends to be right on the fact that markets are (often) overvalued or irrational at times, but the market tends to ignore that and march on, hence many of his 'predictions' don't really turn come to fruition.
In case anyone is wondering why the market feels so crap right now. The market is pricing in Higher For Longer interest rates, if not Higher Forever as the neutral rate shifts upwards. As a result, asset prices decrease.
Screenshot 2023-09-26 145415.png
Quote from: KW on Sep 26, 2023, 02:54 PMIn case anyone is wondering why the market feels so crap right now. The market is pricing in Higher For Longer interest rates, if not Higher Forever as the neutral rate shifts upwards. As a result, asset prices decrease.
Screenshot 2023-09-26 145415.png
Higher "forever" interest rates? Is this the same "ever" it took the negative interest rates a decade ago to run their course?
I hear there are still plenty of people sitting on their negative interest bonds due to be repaid in now 20 years or so (some still later).
The only thing which will stay forever is human stupidity - and even that will end as soon as we terminate ourselves ...!
Quote from: BlackPeter on Sep 27, 2023, 09:16 AMHigher "forever" interest rates? Is this the same "ever" it took the negative interest rates a decade ago to run their course?
Its to do with the theory of neutral interest rates. "The neutral rate of interest, previously called the natural rate of interest, is the real interest rate that supports the economy at full employment/maximum output while keeping inflation constant."
This is the long term target for Fed interest rates. Because economies are currently at 5%+ interest rates and they are still in full employment but inflation still raging, it looks like the neutral rate is a lot higher than before. It was previously thought to be around 0.5% but it has been raised to 2%. In which case, rates will not be coming down as far as people previously estimated. Hence the "Higher Forever".
Its looking pretty bleak out there. US overnight saw the VIX break above its 200 day MA, the Dow and Dow Transports break below their 200 day MAs, the Nasdaq break a H&S pattern (S&P had already done it). Something is afoot in the markets, and its not good.
September was a very tough month for the markets and the September quarter also challenging.
So, what's spooking the markets? I think there's two key elements at work here. The first is 10 year treasuries around the world hitting 15 year high's, U.S. (treasuries up about 100 basis points in the last 4 months) and oil prices up 30% in the last quarter which feeds through as a key driver of inflation.
Interesting opinion piece from Kelly Evans (CNBC) https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/28/kelly-evans-if-bond-yields-dont-start-dropping.html
Portfolio strategy. I think there's a very good case with bond and cash yields where they currently sit for a 50/50 allocation between cash/bonds and equities. Equities generally look quite elevated to me with risk free rates where they currently are. I'm conservatively positioned going into Q4 and 2024 as I expect a tough fourth quarter to the year and a tough start to 2024. Approx portfolio weightings, 37% cash, 20% bonds, 43% equities. No matter how the last quarter of this year plays out I'm disinclined to materially change those portfolio allocations.
Quote from: Basil on Sep 30, 2023, 11:45 AMSeptember was a very tough month for the markets and the September quarter also challenging.
So, what's spooking the markets? I think there's two key elements at work here. The first is 10 year treasuries around the world hitting 15 year high's, U.S. (treasuries up about 100 basis points in the last 4 months) and oil prices up 30% in the last quarter which feeds through as a key driver of inflation.
Interesting opinion piece from Kelly Evans (CNBC) https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/28/kelly-evans-if-bond-yields-dont-start-dropping.html
Portfolio strategy. I think there's a very good case with bond and cash yields where they currently sit for a 50/50 allocation between cash/bonds and equities. Equities generally look quite elevated to me with risk free rates where they currently are. I'm conservatively positioned going into Q4 and 2024 as I expect a tough fourth quarter to the year and a tough start to 2024. Approx portfolio weightings, 37% cash, 20% bonds, 43% equities. No matter how the last quarter of this year plays out I'm disinclined to materially change those portfolio allocations.
You haven't been a good boy this year, have you? :) ; I on the other hand still expect a Christmas (post election, spring, ....) rally, and given that I noticed yesterday in the post office that the posties are already posting up their Christmas delivery schedules, it must be slowly time to position for that.
Anyway - no doubt, time will tell.
Hope you are right BP. Unfortunately, with quantitative tightening now the order of the day global treasury issuance is set for a huge boost in 2024 and where are the funds going to come from to mop up all these new issues if the Chinese are reluctant to buy? I think the chances of the US 10 year rate going over 5% (our rate ~ 6%), are pretty good and if so, these sort rates are pretty undermining of equity valuations. I hope I'm wrong.
Quote from: BlackPeter on Oct 01, 2023, 09:53 AMI on the other hand still expect a Christmas (post election, spring, ....) rally
In Australia and the US history supports that markets underperform leading up to elections while doing significantly better in the six months after. I can't find any similar research for NZ.
Malaysia's elections resulted in a hung parliament last year. The collective wisdom is such instability is a market's worst nightmare and the benchmark Kuala Lumpur Composite Index duly dived 1.5% on opening...but it then recovered to close down just 0.09% on the day. That may be something to think about in the morning of Monday 16th October...
I foresee possible further downturn in October (with reference to the US markets and mentioned in another post).
But it is as if the markets are really trying hard to be positive in these economic/ political times (China/ war/ inflation demand/ local and international politics/ etc) so possibly a 'Christmas run'.
Who knows? Because I dont. ;D
History says NZ markets do much better under National
Performance of the NZ market under different governments from Craigs
1/ Muldoon National 1975 to 1984 331 percent
2/ Key/ English National 2008 to 2017 200 percent
3/ Bolger/Shipley National 1990 to 1999 182 percent
4/ Clark Labour 1999 to 2008 66 percent
5/ Arden/Hipkins Labour 2017 to present 30 percent
Are we on the verge of a massive bull run.....
In inflation adjusted terms we are down nearly 30% since Labour came to power for its disastrous second term.
It would be nice if we could get that back but good things take time...
Quote from: Hectorplains on Oct 01, 2023, 11:20 AMIn Australia and the US history supports that markets underperform leading up to elections while doing significantly better in the six months after. I can't find any similar research for NZ.
Malaysia's elections resulted in a hung parliament last year. The collective wisdom is such instability is a market's worst nightmare and the benchmark Kuala Lumpur Composite Index duly dived 1.5% on opening...but it then recovered to close down just 0.09% on the day. That may be something to think about in the morning of Monday 16th October...
Next month marks one year to the US 2024 elections. Since most international markets take their lead from the US, the next year could be a big underperformer.
The grind continues. Now down more than 10% since 1 August, less than 3 months ago !
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976522402/nz-sharemarket-continues-to-slide.html?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GoodReturns+Market+Report+for+26+Oct+2023
Quote from: Basil on Oct 26, 2023, 08:09 PMThe grind continues. Now down more than 10% since 1 August, less than 3 months ago !
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976522402/nz-sharemarket-continues-to-slide.html?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=GoodReturns+Market+Report+for+26+Oct+2023
This has been a good time to reevaluate, to accumulate cash and lock in TD's that confound many companies dividend payouts. I've never had so much off-market cash investment as I do now and there are few signs that it will go into the equity markets anytime soon. That said, I've not sold any of my long holds despite a few of them being under water, as the dividends are more than eroding the capital losses (on paper) as time goes by.
Interesting times for sure. I had thought we might see some strength after the election result.
I once heard someone describe cash and short term deposits as "shock absorbers" for your portfolio and in the same way that good shock absorbers make for a smoother ride in your car, so they do for your portfolio.
Forbar reckon the forward PE of the market at 20.4 is still 13% above the long term average. I think that's distorted by some market heavyweights having PE's that are unreasonably high, (I will resist naming names). Freightways reckon the economy is weak and slowing. They're probably in a good position to know.
Thought this was good from Craigs
the casino, no matter the game the odds are always tilted in favour of the house.
You might get lucky a few times, but the more you play the greater your chances of losing.
In contrast, when it comes to investing in the sharemarket, the longer you stay the better your odds of success.
Looking back at historic daily returns for the S&P 500 in the US, the index has been up 52 per cent of the time.
That's better than even, but only just. If you want to know what the market is going to do on any given day, you may as well flip a coin.
If we increase our holding period from daily to monthly, the probability jumps to 59 per cent, which still isn't particularly compelling.
However, when we look at rolling 12-month blocks, the likelihood of a positive return shoots up to 73 per cent.
That's based on monthly returns data going back to 1900 for that, so it's a sample size that includes plenty of recessions and rough periods.
One year is still far too short to be considered the timeframe of a long-term investor, but things start to get interesting when we consider holding periods of five years or more.
The historic likelihood of a positive return improves to 89 per cent, before increasing to 97 per cent over ten-year blocks.
Quote"The historic likelihood of a positive return improves to 89 per cent" - 5 years
Good post, thanks for sharing but what's left unsaid is that's a positive return above zero, not above the inflation rate or what you could earn on bonds or term deposits. If you're comparing that to good quality corporate bonds at 7.5% per annum plus or even money in the bank at 6% the odds of shares beating that are much lower. One thing for sure, the old adage of "TINA" (there is no alternative), to stocks is well and truly past its use by date.
People near retirement like me or in retirement already, are well advised to take a more balanced approach to risk management. Time and time again I am seeing old hands experts on CNBC saying you can now get equity like returns for much lower corporate bond level's of risk. The classic 60/40 portfolio (60% equities, 40% bonds) has had its worst year in decades. Maybe a 60% bonds 40% equities portfolio will have a great year in 2024? Maybe 10 year Treasuries keep heading higher and there's another year of losses on bonds and shares next year.
Maybe one third cash / short term deposits, one third bonds and one third shares is a good idea for 2024 ?
Its sure been rough seeing more than 10% wiped off the NZX in the last 3 months.
NZX50 inclusive of all dividends is now down more than 30% in inflation adjusted terms since January 2021. Feels like the Bear market is grinding on and on and on....
What's the annual average return for the New Zealand stock market ?
https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/New-Zealand/Stock_market_return/#:~:text=Stock%20market%20return%2C%20percent&text=For%20that%20indicator%2C%20we%20provide,from%202021%20is%209.26%20percent.
For that indicator, we provide data for New Zealand from 1993 to 2021. The average value for New Zealand during that period was 5.63 percent with a minimum of -24.68 percent in 2008 and a maximum of 22.71 percent in 1993.
ASX over thirty years was 7.06%
QuoteFor that indicator, we provide data for New Zealand from 1993 to 2021. The average value for New Zealand during that period was 5.63 percent
Thanks, that's definitely food for thought when you can get much better returns than that now in the bond market.
QuoteMaybe one third cash / short term deposits, one third bonds and one third shares is a good idea for 2024 ?
Probably not a silly idea for an old dog like me. Certainly, sleep better at night.
Quote from: KW on Oct 08, 2023, 05:14 PMNext month marks one year to the US 2024 elections. Since most international markets take their lead from the US, the next year could be a big underperformer.
I suppose the current share market weakness is only indirectly related to uncertainty in US politics (though, yes - the Rublicans shooting themsleves with the semiautomatic repeatedly into both feet might be on some peoples minds).
More important however is in my view
(1) the sitation in the Near East ... this could well turn into World War III with Nazis on both sides of the border line
(2) the risk that China uses the chaos from (1) to increase their empire and creating a warzone in SE Asia, including Indonesia and Philippines;
(3) the risk Chinas economy crumbles under the real estate crisis they currently have (remember - no better distraction from internal problems than fighting an external enemy)
(4) global warming creating significantly faster and higher economical damages than expected
Lets face it - who really would care in such a situation which clown is going to run the USA in 2025?
Uncertainty all over the place - what exactly do we expect share prices to do?
Quote from: kiwi2007 on Oct 27, 2023, 03:01 PMFor that indicator, we provide data for New Zealand from 1993 to 2021. The average value for New Zealand during that period was 5.63 percent with a minimum of -24.68 percent in 2008 and a maximum of 22.71 percent in 1993.
ASX over thirty years was 7.06%
For the last 30+ years interest rates have been falling. As interest rates fall, asset prices go up as the P part of P/E expands. Will we get another 30+ years of falling interest rates? Extremely unlikely, if not impossible (if one discounts continuing negative interest rate policies). So without that major tailwind, what is the forward return of the share market likely to be? I suggest its more likely to be correlated to the E part of the P/E.
And it hasnt gotten any better chart wise. Hi/Lo chart still firmly negative
Screenshot 2023-10-28 131123.png
And the Nasdaq is now in a clear downtrend
Screenshot 2023-10-28 132607.png
And the Small Ords in Australia is back at 2017 levels, and heading for 2016. Basically, if you didnt lock in the profits from the rally from March 2020 to Sept 2021 you would have gotten no return for 6 years.
XSOOct23.png
Yeap its sure been tough out there in recent times. Depressingly tough.
In addition to what KW has posted above, according to CNBC this morning the broad measure index Russell 2000 is down 11.7% in the last 2 months.
NZX50 inclusive of all dividends paid is down more than 11% in the three months since 1 August and that covers the year end dividend season !
My opinion: Equities are in the process of being repriced for where 10 year Treasuries are now after a huge lift in rates in the last few months.
Are we likely to see a quick bounce-back? Very unlikely in my opinion. I'd like to think most of the repricing work is done but my gut feel is there's some more wood to chop.
Yup, the Russell 2000 is just as depressing
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The US market appears to like what came out of the Fed meeting. For the moment in any case.
Well I think the worst is over. Onwards and upwards from here.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/14/investing/us-markets-soar-on-inflation-news?cid=ios_app
I agree. Inflation is on the way down. US10 year treasuries down a whopping 17 basis points this morning.
The FED is done, the RBNZ is done and we're looking at interest rate cuts and maybe several as early as next year. Cash aznd short term deposits look attractive here but they won't be a year from now.
This is the time to take on risk, put those hefty cash reserves you've built up to work, let's go !
Hi/Lo chart looking healthy. As mentioned on my Momentum thread, there are a lot of healthy breakouts happening in the Aussie small cap space, which has been the serial underperformer for years and in a downtrend since around Jan 2022. The Aussie indexes are still below their 200 day MAs but they will catch up in time. I think late Oct/early Nov might well have been the "bottom" - at least until something unforeseen happens. I'm back buying stocks, and locking in some high dividend yields for future income.
Screenshot 2023-11-30 124311.png
US markets are still firmly in the grips of the Bear. Note that while Trump and tariffs are injecting volatility into the market, this sell off began back in December (the 18th if you wanted to be exact) when the Fed started talking about "stagflation" and the market realised that the priced in interest rate cuts werent going to be forthcoming after all.
For the Nasdaq, the long term trend line meets the next support level somewhere around 14,350. At which point it can hopefully form a base over a period of months (like it did in late 2022) from which a sustainable breakout can be set up.
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The Dow and S&P500 are similar
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Quote from: KW on Apr 22, 2025, 11:15 AMUS markets are still firmly in the grips of the Bear. Note that while Trump and tariffs are injecting volatility into the market, this sell off began back in December (the 18th if you wanted to be exact) when the Fed started talking about "stagflation" and the market realised that the priced in interest rate cuts werent going to be forthcoming after all.
For the Nasdaq, the long term trend line meets the next support level somewhere around 14,350. At which point it can hopefully form a base over a period of months (like it did in late 2022) from which a sustainable breakout can be set up.
Not pretty.
But no reason to act as Trump appologist. Markets knew since the election in early November what is coming and just took their time to react. Clearly - he campaigned on introducing sky high tariffs, destroying the economy and on breaking human rights wherever he can, and this is what they are now getting.