I see Mercury is going ahead with a $110 million 40 MW windfarm. NWF has a ~46 MW windfarm and is valued at $54 million. Kind of interesting don't you think? Are NWFs turbines less productive? Coming to end of life? Might have to have a look at this, although I note returns have not been impressive of late...
Quote from: Plata on Sep 13, 2022, 12:59 PMI see Mercury is going ahead with a $110 million 40 MW windfarm. NWF has a ~46 MW windfarm and is valued at $54 million. Kind of interesting don't you think? Are NWFs turbines less productive? Coming to end of life? Might have to have a look at this, although I note returns have not been impressive of late...
Don't forget the circa $8m of debt when working out the value of NWF - raises NWF EV to more like $62m. Also, the installed or rated power - ie maximum output isn't really the best comparative to use - should use the energy output ie how many GWh does it produce in a given period. Also, take account of opex and useful life of plant when making comparisons.
Hey Poet
I know you used to be closely involved with NWF - why in your opinion are the new directors ( all of whom have nil shares held in the company ) not just maintaining the existing assets till end of life rather than repowering? It seems more logical to maintain these and potentially develop new towers on the previously consented site especially if you can find another party to fund it....(Genesis possibly?)
This company has only ever burned capital and it took a bit of effort to remove the VCT board nominees and GM.
There doesnt seem to be any publicly released costings or a cost / benefit analyses that the company may have undertaken?
It probably would be positive if you held shares in a steel supplier though ;)
Take care
Quote from: Crackity on Sep 13, 2022, 01:34 PMHey Poet
I know you used to be closely involved with NWF - why in your opinion are the new directors ( all of whom have nil shares held in the company ) not just maintaining the existing assets till end of life rather than repowering? It seems more logical to maintain these and potentially develop new towers on the previously consented site especially if you can find another party to fund it....(Genesis possibly?)
This company has only ever burned capital and it took a bit of effort to remove the VCT board nominees and GM.
There doesnt seem to be any publicly released costings or a cost / benefit analyses that the company may have undertaken?
It probably would be positive if you held shares in a steel supplier though ;)
Take care
All good questions Crackity - definitely IMO they should run the asset down for its cash yield and return that cash to shareholders. The site would be worth something to Mercury or similar (but nowhere near $62m IMO), you would be surprised at how much rework is required for resource consents, you can't just rely on the existing consents to install the much taller towers and larger turbines that are the current technology, so need to deal with all of that again. Almost none of the infrastructure will be suitable for re-use (in ground cabling, transformers, substation etc). The future outlook for pricing is also problematic absent a good steer on Onslow. Anyway, I haven't given any thought to NWF for a couple of years now so my views might be quite out of date and a new paradigm might rule ;D
Maybe Dassets would like to contribute, he was more recently involved with them.
It definitely would be positive if you held shares in a steel supplier though ;D
Good idea Poet - John if you are reading this please sign up to Stock Talk 8)
NZ Windfarms Ltd (NZX code: NWF) is pleased to confirm that resource consents have been lodged for the Te Rere Hau Repowering Project with the Environmental Protection Authority (EPA), under the COVID-19 Recovery (Fast-track Consenting) Act 2020 (FTCA).
The Repower Project looks to enhance the available wind power generation capacity from Te Rere Hau, by redesigning and optimising the wind farm layout, including expanding the operational area of the wind farm by 100 hectares, decommissioning, and removing 97 existing two-bladed turbines, and the construction of up to 30 larger three-bladed turbines and associated infrastructure and civil works
Last time I looked NWF didn't have a spare $300 to $350 million sitting under the couch... if I was still a shareholder today I wouldn't be tomorrow
And as far as I know the new Board still don't own any shares personally
8)
Its green Crackity has to be right ,cannot do no wrong especially with the environmentally pure holeyer than thou Investors
Lot of Magpie's on boards....feel they need to be building shiny new things that conform with very latest ESG standards and feel they need to be seen to be doing something. Doing nothing seems so counter intuitive. Glad I never got involved with this. Lay down with mutts, get up with flea's.
Quote from: Basil on Nov 17, 2022, 07:47 PMLot of Magpie's on boards....feel they need to be building shiny new things that conform with very latest ESG standards and feel they need to be seen to be doing something 8) . Doing nothing seems so counter intuitive. Glad I never got involved with this. Lay down with mutts, get up with flea's.
I left the kennel awhile ago with this stock
No regurts at all - it got me some diamond encrusted dog collars - I'm just venting on a stock I I don't own anymore. It's a dumb plan by a Board of Directors with no skin in the game - vent over
8)
Had a look at this company ahead of its interim results which are supposed to be out this month:
NWF Note (https://recastinvestor.substack.com/p/note-nz-windfarms-nwfnzx)
Not much profit, net operating cash flow positive and low debt and high equity.
Te Rere Hau a big and costly project.
Quote from: Recaster on Feb 24, 2023, 02:01 AMHad a look at this company ahead of its interim results which are supposed to be out this month:
NWF Note (https://recastinvestor.substack.com/p/note-nz-windfarms-nwfnzx)
Not much profit, net operating cash flow positive and low debt and high equity.
Te Rere Hau a big and costly project.
Nice analysis. I held this for a bit going back a while now - mostly with an eye to a takeover. The company were actively seeking one but it never happened... what does that tell you? The share price appreciated beyond where I could see value - so we parted company. Looking at its chart now, that's a decent down trend in place. However; it still doesn't look cheap and the possibility of a CR in this market would not be well received. There are plenty of safer, more compelling options in NZ energy stocks than this for both dividend payouts and likely capital appreciation.
Any one know what is going to happen to all those old blades?
Put it in a box and ship them out. its the way of the force...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VumNpJl-IeQ
No dividends anymore
Increased bank debt
Low spot prices
A Board with no skin in the game and huge aspirations.
Next year should be interesting for slow motion train wreck aficionados.....
The half year accounts have just come out. The importance of the repowering of Te Rere Hau is pretty obvious for this business which curently relies on derivatives for its profits.
Why did the stock sell off on the announcement?
Here's an update:
NWF Update for HY23 (https://recastinvestor.substack.com/p/update-nz-windfarms-nwfnzx)
TE RERE HAU WIND FARM REPOWER FAST-TRACK CONSENT GRANTED
1. Repowering Consent Granted
NZ Windfarms (NZX Code: NWF) is delighted to announce that its application for a Fast-Track consent to repower its Te Rere Hau (TRH) wind farm has been granted. The expert consenting panel (the Panel) has released its decision to approve the project today and is available at this website link.
The successful consent comes 21 months after the project was first proposed to shareholders, on 31 August 2021. It is significant for New Zealand's renewable electricity industry as this marks the first operational wind farm in New Zealand to gain a consent for a repowering of its initial Wind Farm .
You lucky lucky shareholders - now to find $350 million to decommission an operating asset and build a new one
Share price 31 Aug 2021 - 26.5 cps
Price today - 13.1 cps as I type this.
Directors holdings - nil
Says it all really :o