Mercury calling it a 'transformational year.'.... they didn't mention an 'inflection point'.
Mercury reported $581 million EBITDAF, $118 million up on the prior year's $463 million EBITDAF reflecting the addition of wind generation and performance improvements in the core business.
Operational expenditure was $230 million, up $40 million on the prior year, primarily due to an increase in operational activity resulting from acquisitions. Total stay-in-business capital expenditure was $68 million, up $12 million on the prior year. After normalising for acquisitions and new activity operational expenditure was broadly flat for its ninth year in a row.
Mercury's net profit after tax was $469 million, up $328 million on the previous year, driven by the $367 million net gain on sale of Tilt Renewables shareholding which was immediately reinvested into the associated acquisition of Tilt's New Zealand operations and future development options.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/397010
wholesales prices spiking and capacity at or near limits..
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/129075/severe-lack-rain-wind-and-sun-exposing-risks-renewable-electricity-generations-role
global warming going to mean sun and wind needs building out?
Rankine units really showing their worth this winter !
Therefore our GNE divie looks secure.
Dividend security needs to be measured in years, not months.
What's becoming clear is their plans to replace baseload generation from Kupe, (oil and gas in decline) and the Rankines with renewables has flaws. You should be okay at the new lower level for a few years as Kupe does its best to keep pumping out as much oil and gas as possible...after that as the field goes into its twilight years, I think the chances of another dividend reset even lower, are very high.
I'd rather own stocks where the dividends have a very long history of going up, (good example TRA), than down.
People need basic cars just like they need power. You know that.
Yes,but it great knowing every time I get a power bill I have it more than covered with my GNE divies.
And yes I love basic cars sellers too.Nice people.
Have taken a position today. Looks good buying to me. Most research is over $7.
Possible exit in MSCI index in Feb25
FB latest note says it all
"Mercury
Don't Be Passive, This is an Active Opportunity"
The recent share price weakness presents a compelling entry point says FB.
What's the gross forecast yield mate?
FB say DPS of 24c FY25E and 26c FY26E. Which is not fantastic but in falling interest rate environment acceptable for me for safe blue chip stock. Capital appreciation the drawcard.
Is Mercury like Spark where dividends are not sustainable over the long term?
Over the past 10 years:
- dividends have exceeded cash earnings
- capex has not added to EPS
- dividends are being funded from generation asset revaluations which is non cash, and
- consequently debts have doubled
Although they have bought the Trustpower customer base. It will be interesting to see how that acquisition unfolds.
Craig's latest saying they think will STAY in the index. Not long to wait.
• Mercury (O/Weight TP $7.36, last at $6.13) – MCY is expected to print 1H25 EBITDA of c$437m (flat YoY) with CIPe for FY25 EBITDA $879m. This will be a solid interim result given the weak hydro during the period that was offset to some extent by new wind generation. MCY has the 2nd strongest Balance Sheet in the sector behind MEL and an established development pipeline. MCY shares are also trading close to 12-month lows, this partly reflects index selling based on expectations for MCY to exit the MSCI next month (for CEN) – see our Index discussion below – CIP are counter-consensus on this issue and do not expect MCY to exit, hence the shares are over-sold.
thanks for that have an old FOBA account somewhere and dont log in....
looks like the market started buy back at 5.70...
Nothing exciting ... but I found the consensus recommendation funny:
Screenshot 2025-04-14 103809.png
Clearly - one of these 5 analyst recommendations will be spot on :);
Well result not good as expected. However guided to $1bn of EBITDAF for FY26, which is higher than consensus.
But MCY have disclosed that the $1bn is based around the expectation that hydro generation will be 300GWh higher for the year ahead due to a high starting lake level and high July inflows. Outside of this one-off benefit, the normalised FY26 EBITDAF guidance is $950m.
Final dividend was 14.4c as expected (fully imputed), bringing FY25 total to 24c as guided. FY26 guidance of 25c.
Nice upgrade
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/471299
Well we have hit $7 and that's with an increasing interest rate environment and the threat of regulation. Hm..
Better than expected says Craig's
The FY26 result and FY27 guidance were in-line on the EBITDAF front, but declared and guided dividends (17cps v 15cps for FY26 bringing total FY26 DPS to 27cps and 29cps guided for FY27) have surprised to the upside and the bottom end of the FY30 EBITDAF target range has been lifted by $50m (now $1.2bn-$1.25bn). Underwriting much of this target is that FID has now been reached on the Mahinerangi 2 wind farm, and at a remarkably low build cost of $2.6m/MW (peers are commonly in mid-high-3's.)