I see Pie Funds has lost 2 keep people who have set up a competing fund management business. What's your thoughts on this ? I have money with Pie funds and the performance over the last year has not been the best.
Need more info mate. Who have they lost, what are their credentials and what fund have they set up ?
I think almost all the managed funds have had a tough last 12 months.
Mike started out as a prominent poster on that other dreadful forum. Not sure if he has extensive investment banking or investment analysis skills but he seems to have done okay over the years.
I thought about throwing him a bone but I decided I prefer to paddle my own canoe.
They certainly take a fairly big piece of the pie for themselves with their fees.
Basil ....changes at Pie in this
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976520607/new-pie-like-fund-being-baked.html?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Friday+12+August+2022
Personally I'd put them on credit watch.
I'd also be prepared to put some money with the new company see how they both go .It's good to have a choice .
If you want further info , you can register here.
https://discoveryfunds.co.nz/
https://www.piefunds.co.nz/Portals/3/Documents/Fact%20Sheets/2022/Monthly-Fact_Sheet-August-2022.pdf?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Slice%20of%20Pie%20-%20August%202022&utm_content=Slice%20of%20Pie%20-%20August%202022+CID_b7fcd7ceb2ad8dca9a9d0ff13b464246&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=Read%20Here
Anyone else seen advertising by Chance Voight Investment Partners (CVI Partners).
Targeted return of 20% pa overv 5 yrs in the Aussie sharemarket.
Interesting to note that they want 1.2% management fee excl GST + 20% performance fee excl GST and neither has any formal investment analysis qualifications. 10 years and 12 years respectively capital markets experience. They did well at PIE for the last 10 years (during a roaring bull market), and have now jumped ship to set up their own shop when times are tougher rather than face the reality that some of their former stock selections have turned to custard, Hmmm.
Minimum investment is $250K which is no barrier for many of us...but some of us have many decades of investment experience across multiple different economic cycles, not just the one decade these guys have in the greatest bull market of our lives.
Please join us to celebrate the launch of the Discovery Founders' Fund.
Enjoy drinks and nibbles whilst hearing about Discovery, the Founders' Fund and positioning Day One.
Places are limited, so please register your interest using the link below.
https://www.eventbrite.co.nz/e/discovery-founders-fund-launch-event-tickets-411684418177
We look forward to seeing you there.
image001.gif
Mark Devcich
Founder & Portfolio Manager
Discovery Funds Management
+64 27 341 4668 | discoveryfunds.co.nz
Go along for a feed Basil!
Quote from: Basil on Sep 18, 2022, 11:00 AMInteresting to note that they want 1.2% management fee excl GST + 20% performance fee excl GST and neither has any formal investment analysis qualifications. 10 years and 12 years respectively capital markets experience. They did well at PIE for the last 10 years (during a roaring bull market), and have now jumped ship to set up their own shop when times are tougher rather than face the reality that some of their former stock selections have turned to custard, Hmmm.
Minimum investment is $250K which is no barrier for many of us...but some of us have many decades of investment experience across multiple different economic cycles, not just the one decade these guys have in the greatest bull market of our lives.
(So right Basil. If anyone has any doubt have a look at last years returns on Pies website. )
Quote from: Crackity on Sep 18, 2022, 11:18 AMGo along for a feed Basil!
yeah...NAH. I'm quite discerning which dog bowl I eat out of these days mate. Not many funds in this ugly bear market of 2022 are up this year but the Beagle fund I manage is ;D Maybe I should pay myself a 20% performance fee lol
Discovery off to a great start
The Discovery Founders' Fund was up 7% (net) in October versus the benchmark up 3.1% (NZD).
We're pleased with the strong start. The performance was achieved despite taking a prudent approach to deploying capital. We ended the month with
+35% cash.
Early days, good they outperformed their benchmark, October was a huge month in the markets with the DOW index for example up 14% in October.
The other thing to watch is that funds often do quite well at the start of their investment journey as they bid strongly into their own opening positions and ostensibly appear to build wealth through building opening ;positions.
I strongly dislike their 20% performance fee which is egregiously self-gratifying in my opinion and well out of line with industry norms in N.Z,. The other thing is their guys built their careers on the back of Mike's expertise in the PIE funds and then jumped ship when the going got tough. Seems more than a little self-serving to me.
The acid test as I understand it with new funds is how do they go in the first three years. If they can prove they can outperform the market materially over 3 years they might be worth their extremely expensive performance fees. The Jury is going to be "out" on these guys for a long time.
https://www.piefunds.co.nz/Market-Insights/Slice-of-Pie-Newsletter/
Discovery now up 9.8 percent in two months. Well done Mark and Chris
https://discoveryfunds.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=5c1216a1533df806fdc1c886f&id=2a08f34608&e=67af1006e4
Mike at Pie says today
The start of 2023 is expected to bring ongoing volatility in markets, but we think there are still great opportunities for investment, says Founder and Chief Investment Officer Mike Taylor.
What sectors is the Pie Funds global investment team watching in 2023?
Consumer discretionary
We think there will likely be some great opportunities for sizeable returns in 2023, in areas like appliances and electronics, apparel, footwear, luxury items, entertainment and cars. This might include the travel sector too which has had a lot of challenges in 2022. In New Zealand, consumers are spending less and this will be the case for a while, but in the US and Europe this started earlier than here, so is likely to pick up globally before things change in New Zealand. Share prices of companies in this sector are likely to pick up well before demand starts to pick up, so we will want to deploy cash early.
Energy efficiency
The energy efficiency sector includes products that make buildings run more efficiently, with lower energy consumption and fewer emissions. This sector also covers electrification, meaning products like electric vehicles and batteries. The effort and capital cost to shift to an electrified global economy is huge and so we see a lot of investment potential there in 2023 and beyond. Driving growth is strong global demand for more sustainability, government policy changes in Europe, and the war in Eastern Europe bringing higher energy costs.
Medical devices and equipment
We think diagnostic and scientific equipment companies have a strong long-term outlook, despite the current gloomy economy, because patients still need to be diagnosed and new drugs still need to be discovered. The rapidly ageing population is contributing to the demand. New treatment techniques such as cell and gene therapy are also emerging, meaning new machines need to be purchased. These companies often have recurring revenues from consumables as well as selling the machines. In our view, these elements all add up to a strong investment sector for 2023.
Factory automation
Factory automation is using machines to replace humans or more efficient machines to replace less efficient machines, meaning higher quality, better speed and lower cost manufacturing. In a higher wage inflation environment, increased automation becomes even more important to protect company margins.
So within a strong sector, what makes a good company? We look for recurring revenue, consumer demand and positive behaviour changes, strong business models, long-term forecasts, position in the market, and whether a company is a global leader in its field. We select companies we think are robust and that have strong balance sheets to weather any storm. In particular, we want to invest in businesses we think will do well over the long term.
Discovery down in December.
https://discoveryfunds.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=5c1216a1533df806fdc1c886f&id=3be90c0c2b&e=67af1006e4
Discovery up 16.6 percent since inception.
https://www.discoveryfunds.co.nz/assets/Newsletters/Discovery-Newsletter-January-23.pdf
That's an excellent result. You must be happy with that!
Quote from: Basil on Feb 02, 2023, 12:45 PMThat's an excellent result. You must be happy with that!
Yes. Early days though.
Discovery up 17 percent since inception. Pie funds growth and growth 2 not performing
https://discoveryfunds.co.nz/assets/Newsletters/Discovery-March-23.pdf
https://www.piefunds.co.nz/Performance-and-Unit-Prices
Lets compare
Fund 3month 6month
Discovery +7.8 % +17 %
Pie Growth +0.76 % + 1.51 %
Pie Growth 2 -1.37 % +0.13 %
Quote from: Shareguy on Apr 24, 2023, 11:44 AMDiscovery up 17 percent since inception. Pie funds growth and growth 2 not performing
https://discoveryfunds.co.nz/assets/Newsletters/Discovery-March-23.pdf
https://www.piefunds.co.nz/Performance-and-Unit-Prices
Lets compare
Fund 3month 6month
Discovery +7.8 % +17 %
Pie Growth +0.76 % + 1.51 %
Pie Growth 2 -1.37 % +0.13 %
Beginners luck?
Quote from: winner (n) on Apr 24, 2023, 11:51 AMBeginners luck?
Certainly agree its to early to judge.
There is and will be a lot of pressure for Pie to compete, especially given the history of the Discovery founders. If Pie does not start performing and Discovery continues its great start then I can see funds transferring to Discovery.
Since the respective lows of June and October last year, local shares have rebounded 12.6% and world shares are up 18.7%.
A softer currency has also been helpful to investors (and exporters) in recent months, with the NZ dollar having fallen 3.1% on a trade-weighted basis in 2023.
We are told the founder at Pie (Mike Taylor) is now focused on reversing the trend of the growth funds. A new CEO was appointed.....time will tell I guess.
I think it might be better or worse depending upon how you look at it ,as of today Discovery +25.45 % since inception.
Quote from: Stoploss on Apr 24, 2023, 12:12 PMI think it might be better or worse depending upon how you look at it ,as of today Discovery +25.45 % since inception.
Gosh . You are right up 25 percent. WOW
I think they hold Duratec , so today should be another good day !
This was noted I think on the other site , but it's a hell of an overhead .
close to 50 on the payroll ....
https://www.piefunds.co.nz/Why-Pie-Funds/Meet-the-Team
The early days PIE was "boutique" Mike didn't want to take any of the funds over $ 35 Mio .( closed them at that)
Now its $2 Billion under management but with the associated costs , and maybe not as nimble as a smaller fund ?
Quote from: Stoploss on Apr 24, 2023, 12:30 PMThis was noted I think on the other site , but it's a hell of an overhead .
close to 50 on the payroll ....
https://www.piefunds.co.nz/Why-Pie-Funds/Meet-the-Team
The early days PIE was "boutique" Mike didn't want to take any of the funds over $ 35 Mio .( closed them at that)
Now its $2 Billion under management but with the associated costs , and maybe not as nimble as a smaller fund ?
Yes I do agree overheads at Pie are huge compared to Discovery. Important to note Discovery charges higher fees compared to Pie. Also to get this return they have taken some risks that have paid off. Next stock pick might not be so good.
Quote from: Shareguy on Apr 24, 2023, 03:33 PMYes I do agree overheads at Pie are huge compared to Discovery. Important to note Discovery charges higher fees compared to Pie. Also to get this return they have taken some risks that have paid off. Next stock pick might not be so good.
I don't mind paying a higher fee for better performance . As you say time will tell .
Looking at it the PIE performance is way below the market .
Pie Funds latest
https://www.piefunds.co.nz/Portals/3/Documents/Newsletters/2023/Monthly%20Newsletter_June_2023_Digital.pdf?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Slice%20of%20Pie%20June%202023&utm_content=Slice%20of%20Pie%20June%202023+CID_9b2f75e5da40dd96abc46d95444b5556&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=Read%20Here
WOW, that thesis written by A.I. My goodness that is disturbing.
How long before we have A.I. running an investment fund using algo's, options, shorts and all sorts of other techniques to beat the market?
Quote from: Basil on Jun 12, 2023, 06:27 PMWOW, that thesis written by A.I. My goodness that is disturbing.
How long before we have A.I. running an investment fund using algo's, options, shorts and all sorts of other techniques to beat the market?
What could go wrong 😂😎
Quote from: winner (n) on Apr 24, 2023, 11:51 AMBeginners luck?
Winner might be time to update this but Discovery are now + 34.66 % since inception ( roughly 10 months )
edit-sorry I see it was Shareguy who provided the direct comparison.
Quote from: Stoploss on Jul 13, 2023, 02:38 PMWinner might be time to update this but Discovery are now + 34.66 % since inception ( roughly 10 months )
edit-sorry I see it was Shareguy who provided the direct comparison.
Thanks for posting stoploss. Have not checked for a while.
Discovery founders fund since inception + 38.17 %-Go you good thing.
Still early days but yes great result. Pie funds also finally starting to improve after a long period of under performance.
Discovery up 10.9 percent for July. Now up 44.6 percent since the 10 months since inception.
Well done Mark and Chris.
Pie funds having a better month in July
https://www.piefunds.co.nz/Portals/3/Documents/Newsletters/2023/Monthly%20Newsletter_August_2023_Digital.pdf?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Slice%20of%20Pie%20August%202023&utm_content=Slice%20of%20Pie%20August%202023+CID_5171be163333407d235100eab2e915f1&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=Read%20Here
Quote from: Shareguy on Aug 09, 2023, 06:41 AMPie funds having a better month in July
https://www.piefunds.co.nz/Portals/3/Documents/Newsletters/2023/Monthly%20Newsletter_August_2023_Digital.pdf?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Slice%20of%20Pie%20August%202023&utm_content=Slice%20of%20Pie%20August%202023+CID_5171be163333407d235100eab2e915f1&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=Read%20Here
When you say a better month ,I presume you mean compared to lately .
But looking at the 8 funds that have comparisons to the index.Only 2 have beaten the index ,the other 6 are minus vs the index ,some by considerable margins. Not what I would aspire to .
Quote from: Stoploss on Aug 09, 2023, 08:55 AMWhen you say a better month ,I presume you mean compared to lately .
But looking at the 8 funds that have comparisons to the index.Only 2 have beaten the index ,the other 6 are minus vs the index ,some by considerable margins. Not what I would aspire to .
Yes Pie have had a terrible few years. Result was an improvement from a low base. Interesting that they are looking at opening up growth. I imagine there is a lot of concerned investors that will be switching if not a substantial improvement. They have had a big loss on the UK fund.
I have been researching India lately and am looking at placing some money in a managed fund with its main emphasis on the Indian market.
With the decoupling from China we are already seeing huge opportunities.
There are a number of funds offering exposure to the Indian market.
Here is a interesting note from Craigs re India.
Is India the new China?
China has been a powerhouse of global growth in recent decades, and investors seeking the excitement and opportunity of emerging markets haven't needed to look much further.
However, the world's second largest economy is facing increasing challenges, bringing its credentials as an obvious investment destination into question.
Last year was difficult for China amidst strict COVID-19 restrictions, and we haven't seen the expected rebound in activity in 2023 since these were relaxed at the beginning of the year.
Domestic demand has been weak, consumer spending soft and private investment subdued. China is also grappling with fears of deflation, a weak housing market and concerns over the shadow lending sector.
The authorities are clearly worried about the prospect of increasing capital outflows, which would exacerbate these issues.
In contrast, India is shaping up as a highly attractive place to do business, as well as invest capital.
India has already overtaken China as the world's most populous country. The United Nations has been tracking population estimates since 1950, and earlier this year it surpassed China for the first time.
This population of 1.4 billion people is the cornerstone of the Indian investment case, as is the fact they're all getting wealthier.
Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in India is a little under US$2500, which is where China was 15 years ago (it's now approaching US$13,000 in China).
In the following period, China experienced very strong growth and the economy almost doubled in size within a relatively short period of time.
We need to be careful about making comparisons, but it's easy to see India embarking on a period of steady growth from here on.
With a very large population and favourable demographic trends, it could well be in the early stages of a longer-term boom at a time when China is quite likely ending one.
Over time, the rising middle class will have more disposable income and more choices about where to spend that money, boosting consumption overall.
This will help drive financial inclusion, which will see people begin to use more financial products and services.
Only 65 million (which is about five per cent) of those 1.4 billion people are credit card holders, which should ensure financial services is a major growth area.
Offshoring of manufacturing is another post-COVID trend that is likely to provide ongoing benefits to the Indian economy.
Apple is one high profile company that's been moving more of its iPhone production to India, in part to diversify away from its reliance on China. Others are expected to follow suit.
Emerging economies can offer more attractive investment returns than developed markets, but they also come with a higher risk profile and an expectation of more volatility.
This health warning applies to India too, although with many emerging market risks related to geopolitics, it might be better positioned than most.
With a less open economy and market than others, there aren't as many interactions (or tensions) with others.
As a democratic republic with a parliamentary form of government, India has more in common with the Western world than the leadership style of China.
It is also a member of the Quad, a diplomatic and military arrangement with Australia, Japan and the United States.
These things arguably put it in a better position to take advantage of the multipolar world dynamics that are likely to prevail in the years ahead.
In short, India's future might look like China's past, making it increasingly worthy of consideration for investors.
Thoughts?
look it obvious that only stock that the world wants are going to be growth. are there any other?.. nuclear active tank shell makers... hong kong gambling and carbon emitting second hand car yards...
get real nuclear power plants will make a come back for sure...
Inida has a whole junk yard full of russian weapons and what is the average income per Cappuccino?
Simplicity pulling shares from Israeli banks not 'political stance'
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/502123/simplicity-pulling-shares-from-israeli-banks-not-political-stance
Quote from: Onemootpoint on Nov 15, 2023, 01:27 AMSimplicity pulling shares from Israeli banks not 'political stance'
...
Might look at those three banks then...
My policy has served me well; that I invest in companies or ENTIRE SECTORS that have fallen foul of ESG and DEI overlords
Discovery funds up 9.3 percent for November. Now up 51 percent in 14 months since inception.
What a result.
Yes massive outperformance , these guys are doing very well .
Quote from: Shareguy on Dec 04, 2023, 06:05 AMDiscovery funds up 9.3 percent for November. Now up 51 percent in 14 months since inception.
What a result.
Cracked the +60% since inception ;D
Quote from: Stoploss on Dec 17, 2023, 11:37 AMCracked the +60% since inception ;D
One of my best decisions was giving them more money this year. I caught up with Chris and Mark recently and thought next year will be good too. How good who knows. Certainly don't expect this level of growth to continue. Now have $115m under management.
Congrats Shareguy. Brilliant performance for the Discovery fund. Might throw them a bone early in 2024 if I can get my head around their fee structure, 2% base fee and 20% performance fee is to the best of my knowledge right at the extreme top end of the industry. 20% performance fee in particular doesn't sit comfortably with me, comes across as greedy. That said, if you can stomach their fees, then so far their performance has been outstanding.
Changing gears, had a good robust discussion about the merits of Fisher's funds Barramundi in particular yesterday with Mos yuesterday and like many others, at face value its easy to be less than impressed with their overall return when they listed in 2006 at $1 and their NTA is currently about 73 cents.
The interesting thing I discovered in the process of that debate was the initial performance (with different investment staff at the helm) over the GFC period was shocking and they really got belted over the GFC with the share price collapsing to a low of 35 cents in Feb 2009. As I stated yesterday, it all depends on what your starting point is with investing in them and I came along later in the game and have enjoyed some fabulous gains, not the least of which by any means have come from the 8 different warrant issues they've had over the years and trading some of those has been very rewarding.
I also noted their sliding scale fee structure such that if they underperform their base fee can go as low as 0.75%, something I believe no other investment manager does. I've talked about their 2% per quarter tax free PIE distributions already and why I like them and that's also a distribution policy that's unique to that group. There performance fee was reduced from 15 to 10% a couple of years back from memory and seems reasonable.
There was also a brief discussion about Marlin and a couple of little things I want to highlight there.
Firstly, a little-known fact is that superannuation funds and portfolio investment entity (PIE's) are exempt from the punitive CFC and FIF tax regimes so they have a real tax advantage compared to a DIY approach which some of my clients use which costs them a lot of money with compliance costs as well as the 5% deemed dividend and tax thereon.
Secondly, although on the face of it this fund has not performed that well, listed in 2007 at $1 and NTA is about 92 cents, on reflection it could not have listed at a worse time and it's worth noting as a result of the GFC by Feb 2009 the share price had ~ halved. If you take that as your starting point the share price has nearly doubled as well as 8 warrant issues and the aforementioned 2% per quarter distributions.
https://marlin.co.nz/investor-centre/portfolio-performance/ I note they have also beaten the index by which they measure the fund against over the years.
My contention is a pretty simple one. The funds fees are reasonable relative to other funds, (for example Mike Taylor's PIE funds are a flat 1.85%) and not only are the fees reasonable they are beating the index over the long run if you exclude the period where they got hammered in the GFC just after they floated.
Their distribution policy is unmatched in the industry and if you're buying into their funds at a discount to NTA the 8% net PIE dividend can in fact be as high as 8.8% net (if bought at a 10% discount to NTA like I was buying BRM at last week). 8.8% Net is worth 8.8 / 0.67 = 13.13% gross to me as a 33% taxpayer, (actually more because if it weren't for these funds I would be in the punitive 39% tax bracket), but let's stick with 33% as that's what I think applies to most on here, and if you take shares in lieu of dividend under the DRIP at a 3% discount that gross return becomes 13.13 / 0.97 = 13.54%.
In conclusion I think KIngfish's various funds are ideal for those looking for diversification, very high yield and those like me looking to do less investment analysis themselves in the years ahead.
Discussion point. What other managed funds are you investing in or considering investing in next year and why do you like them?
Quote from: Basil on Dec 19, 2023, 09:38 AMFirstly, a little-known fact is that superannuation funds and portfolio investment entity (PIE's) are exempt from the punitive CFC and FIF tax regimes so they have a real tax advantage compared to a DIY approach which some of my clients use which costs them a lot of money with compliance costs as well as the 5% deemed dividend and tax thereon.
I zuzpect that thees 'vact' eez little known, because eet eez not true!
Yes there are no 'FIF paper vars' to deal vith vor 'superannuation fund and PIE' unit holders. Unit holders do not need to vorry about FIF, because eet eez all dealt vith behind vund managers closed doors, and there are no taxation consequences of that passed through to unit holders. But to imply FIF does not apply because there is a special exemption vor 'superannuation fund and PIE' managers? That vould not be vright.
RB
Quote from: Basil on Dec 19, 2023, 09:38 AMDiscussion point. What other managed funds are you investing in or considering investing in next year and why do you like them?
Vot about the global vund run by thees guy, Nicholas Bagnall. Ex-ACC fund manager of 26 years employment who has gone out on his own. Yet ACC still trusts heem to manage money vor them.
https://teahumairangi.co.nz/
Vhy like them?
-------------
Avoid unnecessary costWe are very aware of how much value some other fund managers can destroy through unnecessary costs. These include: inefficient tax structures (such as buying foreign ETFs which incur taxes on foreign dividends, which cannot be offset against the tax obligations of NZ investors); excessive transactions costs caused by fund managers placing orders that represent large percentages of average daily volumes; washing all cashflows back to US dollars on a daily basis (such that they will cross foreign exchange spreads twice if they buy and sell securities in the same currency a couple of days apart); and paying unnecessarily high commission rates. At Te Ahumairangi, we will endeavour to do our best to minimise or avoid all of these costs, in addition to charging clients reasonable fees. (Fees are 0.62% per annum (including GST), and we won't charge you any performance fees on top of that.)
Maintaining a modest risk profileWe believe that investors and fund managers often under-appreciate the importance of risk, and a pursuit of higher returns often leads to funds and portfolios being skewed towards those companies that are likely to fall the hardest in the event of a market downturn. Because of this investor blindness to risk, there is strong evidence that low and medium risk equities have historically produced at least similar returns to higher risk equities. We try to always invest the majority of the funds we are responsible for in equities that have low to average risk, as we believe that this approach is likely to produce a better reward-for-risk ratio for our investors.
------------------------
Thees global vund has only been going for two years zo var, but has produced a large outperformance of 'Vive perzentage points' per year seence November 2021.
RB
I'm sure I have read they are exempt but I am not going to go trawling through the IRD website at this time of year to find it.
Super enthusiastic about the Te Reo name so I had a look at their performance for November 2023 and, alas, it was less than 1% when Global markets were absolutely booming. Really underwhelming. Surely that fund is not deeply mired in B Corp and ESG nonsense too?
https://marlin.co.nz/assets/Investor-Centre/Marlin-Monthly-Update-December-2023.pdf
Marlin up 7.5% for November. For the last year Marlin have also outperformed them.
Thanks, but I'll pass.
Quote from: Basil on Dec 19, 2023, 09:38 AMCongrats Shareguy. Brilliant performance for the Discovery fund. Might throw them a bone early in 2024 if I can get my head around their fee structure, 2% base fee and 20% performance fee is to the best of my knowledge right at the extreme top end of the industry. 20% performance fee in particular doesn't sit comfortably with me, comes across as greedy. That said, if you can stomach their fees, then so far their performance has been outstanding.
Changing gears, had a good robust discussion about the merits of Fisher's funds Barramundi in particular yesterday with Mos yuesterday and like many others, at face value its easy to be less than impressed with their overall return when they listed in 2006 at $1 and their NTA is currently about 73 cents.
The interesting thing I discovered in the process of that debate was the initial performance (with different investment staff at the helm) over the GFC period was shocking and they really got belted over the GFC with the share price collapsing to a low of 35 cents in Feb 2009. As I stated yesterday, it all depends on what your starting point is with investing in them and I came along later in the game and have enjoyed some fabulous gains, not the least of which by any means have come from the 8 different warrant issues they've had over the years and trading some of those has been very rewarding.
I also noted their sliding scale fee structure such that if they underperform their base fee can go as low as 0.75%, something I believe no other investment manager does. I've talked about their 2% per quarter tax free PIE distributions already and why I like them and that's also a distribution policy that's unique to that group. There performance fee was reduced from 15 to 10% a couple of years back from memory and seems reasonable.
There was also a brief discussion about Marlin and a couple of little things I want to highlight there.
Firstly, a little-known fact is that superannuation funds and portfolio investment entity (PIE's) are exempt from the punitive CFC and FIF tax regimes so they have a real tax advantage compared to a DIY approach which some of my clients use which costs them a lot of money with compliance costs as well as the 5% deemed dividend and tax thereon.
Secondly, although on the face of it this fund has not performed that well, listed in 2007 at $1 and NTA is about 92 cents, on reflection it could not have listed at a worse time and it's worth noting as a result of the GFC by Feb 2009 the share price had ~ halved. If you take that as your starting point the share price has nearly doubled as well as 8 warrant issues and the aforementioned 2% per quarter distributions.
https://marlin.co.nz/investor-centre/portfolio-performance/ I note they have also beaten the index by which they measure the fund against over the years.
My contention is a pretty simple one. The funds fees are reasonable relative to other funds, (for example Mike Taylor's PIE funds are a flat 1.85%) and not only are the fees reasonable they are beating the index over the long run if you exclude the period where they got hammered in the GFC just after they floated.
Their distribution policy is unmatched in the industry and if you're buying into their funds at a discount to NTA the 8% net PIE dividend can in fact be as high as 8.8% net (if bought at a 10% discount to NTA like I was buying BRM at last week). 8.8% Net is worth 8.8 / 0.67 = 13.13% gross to me as a 33% taxpayer, (actually more because if it weren't for these funds I would be in the punitive 39% tax bracket), but let's stick with 33% as that's what I think applies to most on here, and if you take shares in lieu of dividend under the DRIP at a 3% discount that gross return becomes 13.13 / 0.97 = 13.54%.
In conclusion I think KIngfish's various funds are ideal for those looking for diversification, very high yield and those like me looking to do less investment analysis themselves in the years ahead.
Discussion point. What other managed funds are you investing in or considering investing in next year and why do you like them?
Great post Basil. Yes Discovery's fees are high, but then again a 60 percent return after all fees and expenses soon makes you accept the higher fees. With that level of return they deserve it in my opinion.
Speak to my brokers on a regular basis. They are of the opinion that Australia is where it's at. Small and mid caps on sale. If you have a look at Discovery's monthly update you can soon see where the money is being made. Chris and Mark concentrate on only 20 stocks with a max of 10 percent of the fund to any one stock. Pie funds is starting to improve but they have a long way to go.
Stop the press....Discovery + 1.6630 since inception ( Sept 28 2022)
Basil I don't get the hang up with fees . As with anything you have to pay for the best .
It's all about the Net at the end of the day .
Yes those young guys are off to a fabulous start with their fund, no question about that and I am sure December will be a strong month for them too with the ASX well up month to date.
Will consider in the new year but at this stage I am taking advantage of the big discount to NTA on offer with Barramundi, currently 9-10% discount to NTA so the bang for buck is awesome and underwritten by the fact the fund can buy its own units back at a 6%+ discount to NTA. They also had a stellar month in November, up 7.9% and up another 7.1% month to date in December according to my spreadsheet of their portfolio I updated 15 minutes ago. (Current estimated NTA 73.90 cps, current share price 67 cents = multi year high in terms of discount to NTA which is completely unwarranted in my opinion).
Edit, just saw your post Shareguy and yes as expected, December to date has also been good for them as well as for Barramundi as noted above.
Ringing in my head is the sage advice of an old hand in the fund manager business I saw once on CNBC, (sorry forgot who it was), but he basically said the real test for new funds is year 3. In the first 2 years they deploy a lot of cash into sometimes illiquid stocks and that can see the NTA shoot up a lot. Year 3 is much harder and sometimes very difficult for them to exit small cap stocks that have not measured up to expectations.
To be quite honest about it I'm quite reluctant to chase the overseas markets right at the moment after a stellar Nov / Dec, (US market up 7 weeks in a row) unless a very well proven fund is trading at a steep discount to NTA such as in BRM's case at this point in time. If BRM were trading right on NTA rather than a circa 10% discount, I wouldn't be buying today like I was.
Quote from: Basil on Dec 19, 2023, 02:06 PMI'm sure I have read they are exempt but I am not going to go trawling through the IRD website at this time of year to find it.
Maybe zees page?
https://www.ird.govt.nz/income-tax/income-tax-for-businesses-and-organisations/types-of-business-income/foreign-investment-funds-fifs/foreign-investment-fund-rules-exemptions
"Foreign investment fund rules exemptions"
"Foreign superannuation schemes"
"Tax treatment if an exemption applies"
Ze problem eez such an exemption means *you* vere not an NZ taxpayer vhen you enrolled in ze foreign siperannuation scheme. IOW 'foreign' een zees context means "you" vere the foreigner. Not ze different context of you being an NZer investing your money into a 'foreign' market.
RB
No it wasn't in there mate, saw that earlier today. I flicked a link to a client earlier this year with the info...I'll need to dig that email out in due course if I can find it, probably be after Christmas sometime. Been too busy buying Barramundi today.
Quote from: Basil on Dec 19, 2023, 02:06 PMSuper enthusiastic about the Te Reo name so I had a look at their performance for November 2023 and, alas, it was less than 1% when Global markets were absolutely booming. Really underwhelming. Surely that fund is not deeply mired in B Corp and ESG nonsense too?
I theenk you mees ze point. It eez not about how a vund performs over a zingle month. Sure the NASDAQ vas up 8.9% over November 2023, while the DOW vas up 8.0%, vhile the gain at Te Ahumairangi vas a mere 0.97% over that month.
But svitch ze comparizon to two years and ze picture eez very deeferent. NASDAQ -4.0% per year, DOW +0.7% per year, Te Ahumairangi +11.3% per year. Massive outperformance by Te Ahumairangi.
You can get higher returns over zhort timefranes by trading high Beta FANG stocks of course. But zees is not how Te Ahumairangi vorks. It eez an entirely deeferent outlook and ztrategy to ze FANG chasers.
RB
I didn't have a look at 2 year performance so thanks for highlighting that. Will have a proper look after the silly season is done and dusted. Hard to see past the BRM situation at present with the fund going up at 7%+ per month and trading at ~ 10% discount to NTA.
We have our family's kiwi saver currently with Fisher funds. Not very impressed with their performance. Looking at their share picks they seen to me not to be active fund managers. It's more of a case of buying a stock and holding it and hoping for the best. What ever they are doing it's not working. Hope they have a different strategy for BRM.
Couple of things.
Watching CNBC this morning according to them Russel 2000 small cap index up 21% since October. WOW...this is an index move, no brilliance in stock picking is required. I imagine its similar for small caps in Australia.
Talk was all about how small caps have moved from stupid cheap value to now be fair value and most of the gains from the potential cuts the market is hoping for in 2024 have been priced in at the point of the pivot, (i.e. the point in the couple of months where the market believes the Fed moves from tightening monetary policy towards looking at easing in the future) The market firmly believes the Fed is done.
Several commentators now thinking the market has got slightly ahead of itself here and cautioning about applying fresh capital at this point, i.e. the seasonal period of strength is coming to an end...but we could still get "the January effect" so who knows.
I woke early this morning and did some hard core number crunching on BRM over the whole of the last decade to really drill down and see what the market thinks, (not what Mos or I think) as to whether it should trade at a premium to NAV or a discount and gathered the following data, summarized below from 120 end of month data points and converted this to yearly averages. In the various years noted below on average the shares traded at a (premium) to NAV or a discount as follows
2023 this far (0.1%) premium
2022 (13.3%) premium
2021 (20.1%) premium
2020 (5.5%) premium
2019 8.9% discount
2018 9.1% discount (Robbie Urquart replaced Frank Jasper as lead investment manager mid year)
2017 6.8% discount
2016 7.9% discount
2015 5.7% discount
2014 8.5% discount
Average for 10 years 0.65% discount to NAV.
Observations.
The level of discount has been minimal overall and has traded at an average premium under Robbie Urquart's management of (6%) and an average discount of 7% under the former manager Frank Jasper.
I do not believe overall a premium or discount is warranted. You couldn't own this stock in 2021 or 2022, the premium to NTA was too high.
It hasn't traded as high as a 9%-10 discount, (what I have been very busy buying at in the last couple of weeks), to NAV since October 2019 more than 4 years ago. Buying at a significant discount to NTA leads to higher overall returns, I posted the gross yield yesterday.
Finally - This is an income stock. (Those wanting capital gains should look elsewhere OR reinvest all their dividends each quarter. All the return in the last decade has been paid out with the 2% tax free dividends per quarter and the value of the multiple discounted warrant issues. Over the last decade the NAV has barely moved overall, was 75 cents in Dec 2013 and I estimate 74 cents yesterday. Taking into account the value of the warrant issues I estimate an average 10% annual tax free return, (you can increase this to nearly 11% average tax free if you buy close to a 10% discount to NTA). BRM claim they have beaten the ASX index based on 70% hedged to $N.Z after fees and tax by more than 3% per annum average over the last 5 years under Robbie Urquarts leadership. I have no reason to doubt their claim.
I expect the ASX to considerably outperform the NZX for the foreseeable future.
Disc: Substantial positions in BRM shares and Oct 2024 warrants
P.S. Possibly worth noting that the company changed its share buy-back policy from being eligible to undertake a buy-back, the shares must be trading at an 8%+ discount reducing this to 6%+ a few years ago. They haven't bought any shares back in many years, but the stock is currently trading at such a discount level it makes a share buy-back a real possibility in the near future if market forces don't reprice the shares itself.
Discovery Founders Fund , Month by month ( Note Wholesale fund)
Quote from: Basil on Dec 20, 2023, 10:03 AMCouple of things.
Watching CNBC this morning according to them Russel 2000 small cap index up 21% since October. WOW...this is an index move, no brilliance in stock picking is required. I imagine its similar for small caps in Australia.
Talk was all about how small caps have moved from stupid cheap value to now be fair value and most of the gains from the potential cuts the market is hoping for in 2024 have been priced in at the point of the pivot, (i.e. the point in the couple of months where the market believes the Fed moves from tightening monetary policy towards looking at easing in the future) The market firmly believes the Fed is done.
Several commentators now thinking the market has got slightly ahead of itself here and cautioning about applying fresh capital at this point, i.e. the seasonal period of strength is coming to an end...but we could still get "the January effect" so who knows.
I woke early this morning and did some hard core number crunching on BRM over the whole of the last decade to really drill down and see what the market thinks, (not what Mos or I think) as to whether it should trade at a premium to NAV or a discount and gathered the following data, summarized below from 120 end of month data points and converted this to yearly averages. In the various years noted below on average the shares traded at a (premium) to NAV or a discount as follows
2023 this far (0.1%) premium
2022 (13.3%) premium
2021 (20.1%) premium
2020 (5.5%) premium
2019 8.9% discount
2018 9.1% discount (Robbie Urquart replaced Frank Jasper as lead investment manager mid year)
2017 6.8% discount
2016 7.9% discount
2015 5.7% discount
2014 8.5% discount
Average for 10 years 0.65% discount to NAV.
Observations.
The level of discount has been minimal overall and has traded at an average premium under Robbie Urquart's management of (6%) and an average discount of 7% under the former manager Frank Jasper.
I do not believe overall a premium or discount is warranted. You couldn't own this stock in 2021 or 2022, the premium to NTA was too high.
It hasn't traded as high as a 9%-10 discount, (what I have been very busy buying at in the last couple of weeks), to NAV since October 2019 more than 4 years ago. Buying at a significant discount to NTA leads to higher overall returns, I posted the gross yield yesterday.
Finally - This is an income stock. (Those wanting capital gains should look elsewhere OR reinvest all their dividends each quarter. All the return in the last decade has been paid out with the 2% tax free dividends per quarter and the value of the multiple discounted warrant issues. Over the last decade the NAV has barely moved overall, was 75 cents in Dec 2013 and I estimate 74 cents yesterday. Taking into account the value of the warrant issues I estimate an average 10% annual tax free return, (you can increase this to nearly 11% average tax free if you buy close to a 10% discount to NTA). BRM claim they have beaten the ASX index based on 70% hedged to $N.Z after fees and tax by more than 3% per annum average over the last 5 years under Robbie Urquarts leadership. I have no reason to doubt their claim.
I expect the ASX to considerably outperform the NZX for the foreseeable future.
Disc: Substantial positions in BRM shares and Oct 2024 warrants
P.S. Possibly worth noting that the company changed its share buy-back policy from being eligible to undertake a buy-back, the shares must be trading at an 8%+ discount reducing this to 6%+ a few years ago. They haven't bought any shares back in many years, but the stock is currently trading at such a discount level it makes a share buy-back a real possibility in the near future if market forces don't reprice the shares itself.
Some good points here.
I nearly went cross eyed doing all that number crunching this morning lol
Don't want to take anything away from the stellar start the guys at Discovery have had and also acknowledging their excellent track record when they worked at PIE funds with Mike Taylor. Investors should be exceptionally pleased indeed with how their fund has gone since it launched in Sept 2022.
Might throw them a bone in early 2024.
Was leaning against the idea based on my huge position already in Australia with BRM but oh my goodness the outlook for the N.Z. economy in the next 2 years the incoming Govt gave today with their mini budget was very grim. Basically, when it comes to investing in N.Z., as I see it, less is more lol
I'll mull things over during the holiday break.
Discovery up 15 percent so far this month Basil.
Woohoo, happy for you mate. BRM up just over 7% this month after 7.9% last month, not too shabby either. Might pay to have a bob each way on each horse next year ;)...mind you if I jump onto Discovery's back, I might jinx it for you. I am a bit overdue for a loss somewhere after a very good 2023.
Quote from: Basil on Dec 23, 2023, 05:35 PMWoohoo, happy for you mate. BRM up just over 7% this month after 7.9% last month, not too shabby either. Might pay to have a bob each way on each horse next year ;)...mind you if I jump onto Discovery's back, I might jinx it for you. I am a bit overdue for a loss somewhere after a very good 2023.
Good to see BRM up. A good way to get exposure to small and mid Aust stocks. I agree that the asx will outperform the NZX. NZ has a very small share market with low liquidity and plenty of basket cases. I have had a good year but only because of investing off shore directly and through managed funds. While my NZX portfolio has done ok it's nothing startling compared to the growth of Discovery or international stocks. Discovery could have a bad year in 2024. I doubt it but it's possible. They only need a couple of bad picks.
2024 in my opinion is going to be the year of a lot more M and A on the NZX. We have already had recent interest in Arv and Rak. Who's next I wonder. We have some very beaten down stocks which I'm currently looking at. Our currency also helps make these stocks more attractive for an international player.
Thanks Shareguy.
I had another look at Discovery yesterday. Very impressed both the founders are double degree qualified from the (no bias here from me whatsoever ;D ) best University in New Zealand, Auckland, and one of them worked in mergers and acquisitions at PWC...they only pick the cream of the crop, before going on to perform very well at PIE funds with their Australasian funds for about a decade. Also impressive for young guys they tipped in $6m between them, (not easy at all to accumulate that much liquid wealth at a fairly young age), into the Discovery fund themselves.
Also worth noting I had the fees wrong and its 1.2% management fee which is reasonable, (for some reason I had it in my head it was 2%) and then 20% performance fee but that's only on excess performance over and above the Australian small companies' accumulation index so sets a proper high bar before performance fee accrual starts to kick in, (whereas Barramundi set a lower bar for their 10% performance fee).
They're obviously young, very smart, hardworking and heavily invested themselves so are dead keen and hungry, whereas I am old, fat, contented and semi-retired and frankly, feeling far more inclined towards walking my dog, smelling the roses and enjoying my boat these days than doing deep research on Australian stocks. Can't hurt to throw them a bone for a few years and see how they go. On the "to do" list first thing in 2024. I'm hoping over time they can achieve their medium-term target of 15% compounding return per annum which works out to almost exactly double your money every 5 years.
Going to run Discovery's growth approach side by side with Barramundi's income approach. Good to have plenty of both and makes the prospect of less time spent on investment analysis myself, very real.
Barramundi (BRM) NTA just over 75 cents, very nice.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/BRM/424161/410315.pdf
Stock available at a decent discount at 71 cents. Disc: Topped up with a few more this morning.
Quote from: Basil on Dec 27, 2023, 05:25 PMThanks Shareguy.
I had another look at Discovery yesterday. Very impressed both the founders are double degree qualified from the (no bias here from me whatsoever ;D ) best University in New Zealand, Auckland, and one of them worked in mergers and acquisitions at PWC...they only pick the cream of the crop, before going on to perform very well at PIE funds with their Australasian funds for about a decade. Also impressive for young guys they tipped in $6m between them, (not easy at all to accumulate that much liquid wealth at a fairly young age), into the Discovery fund themselves.
Also worth noting I had the fees wrong and its 1.2% management fee which is reasonable, (for some reason I had it in my head it was 2%) and then 20% performance fee but that's only on excess performance over and above the Australian small companies' accumulation index so sets a proper high bar before performance fee accrual starts to kick in, (whereas Barramundi set a lower bar for their 10% performance fee).
They're obviously young, very smart, hardworking and heavily invested themselves so are dead keen and hungry, whereas I am old, fat, contented and semi-retired and frankly, feeling far more inclined towards walking my dog, smelling the roses and enjoying my boat these days than doing deep research on Australian stocks. Can't hurt to throw them a bone for a few years and see how they go. On the "to do" list first thing in 2024. I'm hoping over time they can achieve their medium-term target of 15% compounding return per annum which works out to almost exactly double your money every 5 years.
Going to run Discovery's growth approach side by side with Barramundi's income approach. Good to have plenty of both and makes the prospect of less time spent on investment analysis myself, very real.
Putting in $6m is not small change. It certainly gave me a higher level of confidence. As you know I have recently given them some more to play with. When I did that, I looked at everything I could on line. I can't find anything that I don't like. Past performance has been exceptionally good, but it's only been going a year. As you point out Basil time is short and they do the research and so far results speak for themselves.
Have also met them both and Chris's wife recently. Smart people I thought. Mark is the sort of person who I reckon gets little sleep and has his phone on his bedside cabinet to check what's happening. Or do we all do this. My wife hates me for it😂.
Disc, I'm not recommending people put money into Discovery. It's high risk for wholesale investors. Every investors profile is different.
Discovery up 13.1 % in Dec.( Since inception 15 months 70.8 % )
Here is the latest update.
https://discoveryfunds.co.nz/market-insights/discoverys-december-2023-update/
Also now tracked in Sharesight:25806.FundNZ Discovery Founders" Fund
If the Beagle waits too long for a feed the Greyhounds will beat him to it . ;)
Wow. 70.8 percent return with December alone their best month up 13 percent. I have had a ok year from my own investing, but 70 percent sounds like a dream.
Go Neuren Pharmaceuticals. NNZ-2591
Congrats to Mark and Chris.
Quote from: Stoploss on Jan 03, 2024, 11:25 PMDiscovery up 13.1 % in Dec.( Since inception 15 months 70.8 % )
Here is the latest update.
https://discoveryfunds.co.nz/market-insights/discoverys-december-2023-update/
Also now tracked in Sharesight:25806.FundNZ Discovery Founders" Fund
If the Beagle waits too long for a feed the Greyhounds will beat him to it . ;)
Since my post on Dec 27 above, I've been reflecting more on this. 9.3% in Nov and 13.1% in December are great results no question (22.4%) 18.3% in the last 3 months, but keep in mind the small cap 600 value index was up 25% in Nov/Dec (source CNBC) so the market overall for small caps and tech has run red hot over that timeframe. I'm of the view a correction or at the very least a consolidation is due. Russel 2000 small caps is down nearly 5% in the last 3 trading days, so a correction has possibly already started. I've had a very good 2023 so I am in no hurry to deploy cash into over stretched overseas markets that have recently run white hot, right at this point. Beagle reckons sometimes it's good to "paws", (you see what I did there), reflect and wait for things to cool down a bit.
Quote from: Basil on Jan 04, 2024, 09:10 PMSince my post on Dec 27 above, I've been reflecting more on this. 9.3% in Nov and 13.1% in December are great results no question (22.4%) 18.3% in the last 3 months, but keep in mind the small cap 600 value index was up 25% in Nov/Dec (source CNBC) so the market overall for small caps and tech has run red hot over that timeframe. I'm of the view a correction or at the very least a consolidation is due. Russel 2000 small caps is down nearly 5% in the last 3 trading days, so a correction has possibly already started. I've had a very good 2023 so I am in no hurry to deploy cash into over stretched overseas markets that have recently run white hot, right at this point. Beagle reckons sometimes it's good to "paws", (you see what I did there), reflect and wait for things to cool down a bit.
Sounds like a good plan. Discovery down for Jan so far. You might be right with your "paws" 😂
Mike Taylor from Pie funds take on 2024
Founder and Chief Investment Officer Mike Taylor covers the December markets.
Despite some dire predictions 12 months ago, 2023 turned out stronger in the end for most investors, despite several scares, including the collapse of several US Regional Banks, higher interest rates, a war in the Middle East and of course, ongoing inflation. On that last point, by November 2023, we had some encouraging signs that inflation will be back below 2% in most developed countries this year. And that set the market alight with a strong rally to finish the year.
Some notable callouts for our funds performance in 2023 were the Pie KiwiSaver Growth Fund up +17.1% pre fees. The Pie Australasian Growth Fund up +25.2%, and the Pie Conservative Fund up +8.8%, which had a record year, being the highest return of the fund (both after fees).
At the end of 2022, investors thought a recession was definite. The year before (2021), they thought big tech would be immune to rate increases. And a year before that (2020), they were convinced that paying high prices for stocks popular during COVID would make them rich. These were the consensus calls and they all failed.
So where is consensus now?
To start 2024 investors believe, again with absolute conviction, that the economy is heading for a soft landing with lower interest rates finally on the horizon. Maybe this time they will be right. In theory, this environment should be positive for markets, although it's no surprise that after a multi-year bear market, nobody is that bullish or willing to stick their neck out. The average forecast gain for 2024 by Wall Street strategists was essentially zero (the usual average is around 8-10%).
What do we think at Pie?
Here goes with the crystal ball.........
Healthcare – has underperformed due to the GLP-1 (weight loss drug) movement which we believe will fade. It's also a defensive sector, so handy to own if economic growth slows down more than expected.
Small Caps – the herd is only just moving back into small caps, so we believe this trend has a long way to go.
Real Estate – despite a year end bounce, many listed property trusts are still trading at a steep discount to their Net Assets.
Rates - we expect all major Central Banks, including the RBNZ to cut rates this year. The question is just by how much. With a soft economic landing, it should be around 1%, but if there is a recession, rates could be cut by 2.5-3%. Either way, rates are coming down.
Faster trends – stocks, themes, sectors, regions are all coming in and going out of favour very quickly. That means explosive moves and things will get overvalued and undervalued quite quickly. Don't expect the trend to last forever, let alone a long time.
Get in early, make your money, then get out.
Risks to watch out for?
Oil price spike from Middle East war expanding.
Disruption/tension around the US election and the results.
Weather events such as droughts impact food prices and growth.
Cyber attacks.
And on that note. Happy New Year everyone! A new lap begins.... Good luck ahead.
Thank you again for your support. If you have any questions, please don't hesitate to email me on
mike@piefunds.co.nz
Founder and Chief
My short term crystal ball.
I'm picking a very choppy directionless first quarter of 2024 as most overseas markets digest and hopefully embed, the massive gains from the last quarter of 2023. Q2 CY24 could be a good time to apply new capital as the market sets itself up for a stronger second half with many central banks likely cutting by then.
Quote from: Basil on Jan 17, 2024, 06:40 PMMy short term crystal ball.
I'm picking a very choppy directionless first quarter of 2024 as most overseas markets digest and hopefully embed, the massive gains from the last quarter of 2023. Q2 CY24 could be a good time to apply new capital as the market sets itself up for a stronger second half with many central banks likely cutting by then.
Clearly one of many possible scenarios for 2024. Just wondering - is this prediction based on the assumption WW III starting in the first half of this year in earnest, or do you assume it will take a bit longer?
I guess what I am trying to say is - given the current geopolitical situation I'd be very careful with any predictions of future trends. So many things could happen - and any of a large number of idiots can easily change the course of (not just) the world economy.
That's the options I curently see:
Arabs (Sunnies), Iraninas (Shiites), Jews and Christians (well, sort of - US and UK) coming to their senses, gather together around a big peace fire, lighting a pipe (as long as smoking is still allowed) and work together to further the world economy.
China and Taiwan agreeing to disagree and discover their common interest of furthering the economy in both countries.
Putin finds an (ways too late) death, the next political leader there discovers that the Russian economy does much better when they export clothes and software instead of already lit rockets.
World sitting together in COP 29 (is it?, I lost counting) and agree to put the effort they put so far into creating and dispensing killing machines into stemming global warming. Easy peasy - all these war funds will be employed to improve / rebuild destroyed infrastructure and ensure people in the hardest hit regions are supported to be able to have a worth while living, stopping as well the refugee problems all around the world.
Likely? No, but boy, would this be a shot into the arm for the stock exchanges ...
Any of these options not coming to fruition? That's the likely option, and I don't think anybody can predict how this global ecosystem will then developing from here.
My best bet though is that humanity will keep fighting on many / most fronts and simultaneously keep destroying our climate. Still - could be an amazing scenario for New Zealand if we manage to turn our country into a safe haven for skilled and/or wealthy people from around the world who want to get away from it all as long as we keep our backwards looking populists under control. Think Switzerland (during WW II) of the South Sea.
If our government manages to stear us there, than clearly things will go upwards (well, for us) .. but whether this will happen already in Q2 2024, I could not say :) ;
Agree the current situation with geopolitical risk is elevated and its anyone's guess what effect this might have on the markets, but people have been fighting each other for thousands of years and the Bible has many accounts of war so it's nothing new.
My prediction about Q2 is predicated upon the fact that we had an exceptionally strong Q4 in 2023 for most overseas markets. According to several sources I have seen, what usually follows in Q1 of the following year is a period of market consolidation wherein the market digests, (for want of a better word) and hopefully embeds the huge gains in the previous quarter. Markets never go up in a straight line and my gut feel, and I admit its little more than that, is we will have a fairly quiet Q1 in 2024.
That said, Barramundi are up 2.5% month to date in January (based off my spreadsheet of their portfolio I updated a few minutes ago) which means their portfolio performance to date in 2024 is going up at an annual rate of 30%+ so who knows. I'm certainly not complaining. ;)
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MLN/425320/411585.pdf
QuoteMarlin (MLN),ended the quarter with gross performance up 11.0% and an adjusted
NAV return of +10.1%, compared with our global benchmark which was up
8.3%. This brought the 2023 calendar year gross performance to +31.3%,
compared with our global benchmark which was up +19.1%.
Very solid performance. Noting decent sized stakes in Amazon and Meta both of whom reported very strong results after the close of US markets (our time this morning), with shares up very strongly in after hours trading.
Disc: 8% portfolio allocation. Bias towards lifting this, (over a period of time), to 20-25%.
Barramundi currently 26% of portfolio. If October 2024 warrants all exercised that would then be lifted to ~ 50%.
Marlin (MLN) NAV up 3.3% in January, Barramundi (BRM) up 1.4%. Very satisfactory result for the first month of 2024 considering both funds performed very strongly in the final quarter of 2023. Love their 8% per annum tax free distributions. $1m invested generates $80,000 tax free income.
There's bugger all growth in N.Z....as you can see, I'm shifting, potentially the majority of my funds out of N.Z's extremely weak and anemic economy.
Discovery Monthly update .
https://discoveryfunds.co.nz/market-insights/discoverys-january-24-update/
BRM closing NAV for the week according to my updated spreadsheet is 76.84 cps up nearly half a cent on the NAV at the end of the month announced yesterday of 76.38 cps. At last traded price of 73 cents BRM traded at a 4.4% discount.
[quote author=Basil
There's bugger all growth in N.Z....as you can see, I'm shifting, potentially the majority of my funds out of N.Z's extremely weak and anemic economy.
Agree. I had a good year last year with my investments only due to investing more offshore. Have also been moving more into managed funds. These are mostly outside NZ investments to give me diversification and more time to enjoy life.
Have realised lately after a few health shocks with friends that life can be very short and I for one want to spend more time enjoying life than researching stocks.
Quote from: Shareguy on Feb 02, 2024, 07:42 PM[quote author=Basil
There's bugger all growth in N.Z....as you can see, I'm shifting, potentially the majority of my funds out of N.Z's extremely weak and anemic economy.
Agree. I had a good year last year with my investments only due to investing more offshore. Have also been moving more into managed funds. These are mostly outside NZ investments to give me diversification and more time to enjoy life.
Have realised lately after a few health shocks with friends that life can be very short and I for one want to spend more time enjoying life than researching stocks.
Amen to that mate. Had a mild heart attack last year and they put me on 3 new meds which tanked my red blood (RBC) cell count so badly for many months there I thought there was a chance I had blood cancer or some other terminal condition. You start seeing life very differently when you think there's a chance your time is near to its end. In the end I decided, seeing as I had never had problems before with RBC count in my life before, it must be one of the new meds so threw them all away and unsurprisingly my count is now back to normal. Need to reduce stress and weight, improve fitness and eat healthier. Less work, much more walking Tony the Pony and boating going forward, (both those activities are my very happy place).
Jeez, Shareguy shifting investing in NZ to overseas ....and Basil as well ....and no doubt others
The hot tip ....... Many doing it based on the increasing :) buzz
Hard to say if Shareguy and Basil are talking like the taxi driver ...hard to imagine them being shoeshine guys :) :) 8) :) :)
Quote from: winner (n) on Feb 03, 2024, 09:36 AMJeez, Shareguy shifting investing in NZ to overseas ....and Basil as well ....and no doubt others
The hot tip ....... Many doing it based on the increasing :) buzz
Hard to say if Shareguy and Basil are talking like the taxi driver ...hard to imagine them being shoeshine guys :) :) 8) :) :)
Good point. Some are saying overseas equities are overpriced ... and some certainly are :) - but then I guess its just a question of dancing close enough to the exit, isn't it?
Having said that - I like diversity. Some funds overseas and enough of them here. I have to admit - last year the overseas funds did better, but who knows what this year will bring? Some say that past performance is not an indicator for future performance, and others prefer linear extrapolation (suggesting the opposite).
Can both camps be right? I suppose it depends on the time window. Lets see how this year goes ...
Quote from: BlackPeter on Feb 03, 2024, 10:13 AMGood point. Some are saying overseas equities are overpriced ... and some certainly are :) - but then I guess its just a question of dancing close enough to the exit, isn't it?
Having said that - I like diversity. Some funds overseas and enough of them here. I have to admit - last year the overseas funds did better, but who knows what this year will bring? Some say that past performance is not an indicator for future performance, and others prefer linear extrapolation (suggesting the opposite).
Can both camps be right? I suppose it depends on the time window. Lets see how this year goes ...
Agree BP that past performance is not an indicator for future performance. But I guess we all take different views on different indicators and I certainly think past performance is very important. However NZ could surprise many and have a great performance. I certainly hope so. I will also still be invested in NZ but the majority will be offshore like the super fund or ACC and for that matter many of the managed funds in NZ.
I think the NZX total market cap is less than 1% of the world.
As you say Shareguy, any serious investment fund like the ones you mentioned has the vast majority of its investments offshore.
BP, if you zoom out and look at the macro picture, it's hard for companies to do well when there's no growth in the economy here.
Saw this comment about US markets ....they could be right
After a historic rally in stocks, permabears got blown up. Now that they're all broke (and some even retired), it's time for stocks to correct.
Well yes that's one way to look at it and yes, I am cautious after a strong run last year but for deeper context, 2022 a bad year for the US markets. Despite a strong recovery in 2023 the S&P500 only closed last week 4% above where it was on 31/12/2021. ASX isn't in any way out of order relative to previous years but does look like its ready to break out to the upside. as does the S&P 500.
I think the A.I. revolution will supercharge the growth of stocks like Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia and others.
Market cap reflections.
On CNBC on Friday, trading in the "magnificent 7" usually surpasses the total trading in all European markets combined ! Let that sink in. Really puts the puny and pathetic size of the NZX into context. More context - Jarden website last week, random day I noticed trading on the NZX totaled $80m, on the ASX $6.5 Billion, more than 80 times the volume !
Quote from: Basil on Feb 03, 2024, 07:05 PMI think the NZX total market cap is less than 1% of the world.
As you say Shareguy, any serious investment fund like the ones you mentioned has the vast majority of its investments offshore.
BP, if you zoom out and look at the macro picture, it's hard for companies to do well when there's no growth in the economy here.
No doubt - if you have lots of money to invest, you need a larger stage. Doubt however whether any of us can move the billions ACC and Superfund have at their avail.
I agree as well that oveseas looks like larger rewards, as ususal coupled with larger risks. There is no free lunch. Have a look at what happend to the Swiss people investing overseas when the Swiss FAnc went overnight 20% up. Ouch. Think about the really big bubbles of the recent decades and what has been left when we woke up the next morning.
And sure - we are not Switzerland - our politicians unfortunately don't have the mental capacity, imagination and fexibility, but apart from that, I think the markets could treat us to a degree simlarly (if our politicians have a light moment).
So - that's the reason I have as much as we need in NZ. Maybe it will grow a bit slower, but it will be around if and when we need it ... and the tax treatment is nicer as well.
Anyway - each to their own.
I have been pondering the future lately, as retirement is looming within the next few years. I have never invested in managed funds, but I feel that maybe I do need to start thinking about this as an option down the track.
Not asking for recommendations as such, but would be interested to hear how others made/make their decisions about which managed fund to invest in. I am talking small amounts here - maybe $10,000 - $20,000. I still have my very small portfolio, but to be honest, I think I have done my dash with investing in companies. Just not the best option for me now for various reasons.
If anyone cares to contribute, I would appreciate your input.
Quote from: Untamed on Feb 27, 2024, 04:13 PMI have been pondering the future lately, as retirement is looming within the next few years. I have never invested in managed funds, but I feel that maybe I do need to start thinking about this as an option down the track.
Not asking for recommendations as such, but would be interested to hear how others made/make their decisions about which managed fund to invest in. I am talking small amounts here - maybe $10,000 - $20,000. I still have my very small portfolio, but to be honest, I think I have done my dash with investing in companies. Just not the best option for me now for various reasons.
If anyone cares to contribute, I would appreciate your input.
Not many managed funds around which beat index funds on a regular basis. Actually - not sure I know of any (regularly beating index funds) with the exception of Warrens Buffet's company, but then - Warren is old, i.e. not quite sure whether the future of Birkshire Hathaway will be as outstanding as its past....
If the index fund idea sounds sensible - have a look at Kernelwealth https://kernelwealth.co.nz/. They give you plenty of flexibility combined with (for NZ) quite low fees.
Looking at myself - I have still most of our funds directly invested in NZ and overseas shares, r started however a year or so ago an Index "Reference portfolio" with Kernel - with main components NZX20, Global 100 and Global ESG and Cash (for a slow release into the others ...).
I know, some people here wouldn't touch ESG with a bargepole, but then the index returned 16.5% pa in average over the last 5 years. Not bad. I have no problem with people trashing ESG - and happy to ignore them and take the money.
Obviously - if you go for index funds ... there are plenty of options and plenty of providers, in NZ as well as overseas. Never looked into Smartshares (NZX), but I think they offer as well something similar. I would look for flexibility (how easy is it to change indices and still more important - get out if you need the money), can you trust the fund manager (avoid funds located in legislations you don't trust or understand - and do they offer a set of indices which look interesting for you.
Anyway - just my 2 cents - happy investing!
Quote from: Untamed on Feb 27, 2024, 04:13 PMI have been pondering the future lately, as retirement is looming within the next few years. I have never invested in managed funds, but I feel that maybe I do need to start thinking about this as an option down the track.
Not asking for recommendations as such, but would be interested to hear how others made/make their decisions about which managed fund to invest in. I am talking small amounts here - maybe $10,000 - $20,000. I still have my very small portfolio, but to be honest, I think I have done my dash with investing in companies. Just not the best option for me now for various reasons.
If anyone cares to contribute, I would appreciate your input.
As time marches on I am slowly moving away from individual companies and bonds and moving into managed funds and ETF to save time, research, etc and hopefully make smaller regular withdrawals easier. I'm still splitting my funds amongst a few managers - Smartshares, Kernel, Simplicity, Milford and Te Ahumairangi. I went with them for ease of transactions, websites, and of course for fees and performance.
Simplicity global fund has about the lowest management fee at 0.15% if you want a broad index not just USA
Kernel sp500 if you just want US or as BP has gone global top 100 would also be good I think
Here's a link comparing simplicity to kernel offering...
https://moneykingnz.com/simplicity-vs-kernel-whos-the-better-low-cost-fund-manager/
I wouldnt overthink it too much ...there's lots of funds with similar profiles and overlap..just pick a fund that fits you and stick with it...easy enough to change if something changes down the track
If you are looking for extra income in retirement its hard to beat KFL, BRM and MLN. All pay 2% tax free quarterly dividends.
Yeah, I do hold KFL and BRM and have money put aside to exercise the BRM warrants later this year. I have always taken DRP but have recently gone back to cash dividends as the money has been helpful. I have bugger all of either of them though.
Just testing the waters and looking at all the options for when I turn 65 in a couple of years. Decisions like whether to leave my Kiwisaver (Balanced) as it is, or take a portion of it to invest in something "growth" (long term into retirement).
Lots to think about.
Quote from: Basil on Feb 27, 2024, 08:13 PMIf you are looking for extra income in retirement its hard to beat KFL, BRM and MLN. All pay 2% tax free quarterly dividends.
Quote from: Untamed on Feb 27, 2024, 04:13 PMI have been pondering the future lately, as retirement is looming within the next few years. I have never invested in managed funds, but I feel that maybe I do need to start thinking about this as an option down the track.
Not asking for recommendations as such, but would be interested to hear how others made/make their decisions about which managed fund to invest in. I am talking small amounts here - maybe $10,000 - $20,000. I still have my very small portfolio, but to be honest, I think I have done my dash with investing in companies. Just not the best option for me now for various reasons.
If anyone cares to contribute, I would appreciate your input.
Some good suggestions have been made. I think individual stock selection is fraught with issues which is one of the reasons that I'm also channelling money over time into funds.
Depending on financial circumstances and risk tolerance as we age preserving one's capital is most important, so nothing wrong with term deposits either. At the end of the day shares are higher risk and as we no it can go wrong.
With shares it's all about diversification in my opinion. Index funds are a great way to get that and you can spread money around with various exposures and countries.
Anyway best of luck.
Quote from: Untamed on Feb 27, 2024, 08:41 PMYeah, I do hold KFL and BRM and have money put aside to exercise the BRM warrants later this year. I have always taken DRP but have recently gone back to cash dividends as the money has been helpful. I have bugger all of either of them though.
Just testing the waters and looking at all the options for when I turn 65 in a couple of years. Decisions like whether to leave my Kiwisaver (Balanced) as it is, or take a portion of it to invest in something "growth" (long term into retirement).
Lots to think about.
Maybe one comment on your Kiwi saver. While nobody can predict the future, it might be fair to assume that shares (especially in nz) are currently closer to the bottom, than they are to the top. Most other markets show aleady plenty of green shoots.
Did you think about changing your Kiwisaver from balanced to Growth? If you expect markets to recover, than this would give you more bang for your buck ...
Obviously - if you believe into some of the doomsday scenarios, or if you might need the funds short term, than better don't :) ;
Yes, that is one of the things I am thinking of actually. But my balance is low (compared to most) - only around $41,000 currently. In hindsight I think I probably changed plans a bit early, but we all know how hindsight works.
I guess what I am thinking about now, is with less than two years until I am 65, what is the best thing to do with my KS at that point in time? I had intended to leave it as it is, but is there really any advantage/benefit to keeping a Kiwisaver going after 65, with no more government or employer contributions, and minimal (if any) ability to make voluntary contributions in retirement. Maybe I would be better at that point, to move at least some of it, to a growth fund, or even a mix of index funds/ETFs. I already hold USF and am very tempted to put at least some of it there, when the time comes.
My other thought is to use it, and probably my portfolio, to upgrade to a much more modern and more practical caravan. This one is old and starting to need more money spent on it, and will not be as accessible for me in 10 years, with a fixed bed etc. Something like a Snowy River (secondhand of course) would make my life much easier and more comfortable in my old age. Realistically, I have to continue living this lifestyle for the foreseeable future - until I'm old and decrepit enough to move to a rest home - no RV care suite for me sadly ;)
Quote from: BlackPeter on Feb 28, 2024, 04:34 PMMaybe one comment on your Kiwi saver. While nobody can predict the future, it might be fair to assume that shares (especially in nz) are currently closer to the bottom, than they are to the top. Most other markets show aleady plenty of green shoots.
Did you think about changing your Kiwisaver from balanced to Growth? If you expect markets to recover, than this would give you more bang for your buck ...
Obviously - if you believe into some of the doomsday scenarios, or if you might need the funds short term, than better don't :) ;
Quote from: Stoploss on Jan 03, 2024, 11:25 PMDiscovery up 13.1 % in Dec.( Since inception 15 months 70.8 % )
Here is the latest update.
https://discoveryfunds.co.nz/market-insights/discoverys-december-2023-update/
Also now tracked in Sharesight:25806.FundNZ Discovery Founders" Fund
If the Beagle waits too long for a feed the Greyhounds will beat him to it . ;)
Just waiting for the monthly update but at the End of Feb 24, 17 months since inception a dollar in is $ 1.90 in the Discovery Founders Fund- Outstanding work.(+10.97 % in Feb)
Quote from: Stoploss on Mar 01, 2024, 03:17 PMJust waiting for the monthly update but at the End of Feb 24, 17 months since inception a dollar in is $ 1.90 in the Discovery Founders Fund- Outstanding work.(+10.97 % in Feb)
So glad I am with these guys. Very happy that my decision to put more with them last month has been a good call. Look forward to the update but 10.9 percent in Feb is outstanding.
I found this interview quite interesting. The brief mention of NZ was food for thought.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/markets-with-madison-passive-fund-power/PQJFK23INS6VCRH5DKZF5KGH2U/?fbclid=IwAR0ZcrbZ6-0WpoRSuKwQdgpykalTr0D4ZVzwEC3P_VC81E0W_tpS2D4sKYk (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/markets-with-madison-passive-fund-power/PQJFK23INS6VCRH5DKZF5KGH2U/?fbclid=IwAR0ZcrbZ6-0WpoRSuKwQdgpykalTr0D4ZVzwEC3P_VC81E0W_tpS2D4sKYk)
Wow. The impressive growth continues with Discovery founders fund up 11 percent in Feb. Feb was a difficult market with the index up only 1.2 percent. March has also started well.
https://discoveryfunds.co.nz/assets/Newsletters/Discovery-Feb-24.pdf
Pie funds latest update
https://www.piefunds.co.nz/Market-Insights/Slice-of-Pie-Newsletter/Issue-187?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Slice%20Of%20Pie%20-%20March%2024&utm_content=Slice%20Of%20Pie%20-%20March%2024+CID_752720e2c3e67538e636043cc164659a&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=READ%20MORE
Quote from: Shareguy on Mar 09, 2024, 05:24 AMWow. The impressive growth continues with Discovery founders fund up 11 percent in Feb. Feb was a difficult market with the index up only 1.2 percent. March has also started well.
https://discoveryfunds.co.nz/assets/Newsletters/Discovery-Feb-24.pdf
Discovery Fund just hit 100 % return since inception , incredible result . Inception 27/09/22 1.00 Fund reval for 18/03/24 2.0076
Quote from: Stoploss on Mar 19, 2024, 01:04 PMDiscovery Fund just hit 100 % return since inception , incredible result . Inception 27/09/22 1.00 Fund reval for 18/03/24 2.0076
Yes stunning result. Glad I moved the majority of funds into Discovery and offshore. So far its been a good call.
FB in latest state of the nation said
The latest New Zealand company earnings season set a few unpleasant new records. One of them is the ~-40% underperformance of the New Zealand market relative to the MSCI World Index since its peak in 2020; we have to go back to the period following the 1987 sharemarket crash to see a similarly weak relative performance.
WOW that's an incredible result guys especially after their egregiously high 20% performance fees are deducted. The directors must be incredibly pleased doubling the millions they put in as well as making an absolute fortune from performance fees from everyone else. Wonder how long before it starts reverting to their target rate of 15% per annum performance? Probably far too late to get in now.
Quote from: Basil on Mar 19, 2024, 06:38 PMWOW that's an incredible result guys especially after their egregiously high 20% performance fees are deducted. The directors must be incredibly pleased doubling the millions they put in as well as making an absolute fortune from performance fees from everyone else. Wonder how long before it starts reverting to their target rate of 15% per annum performance? Probably far too late to get in now.
Never too late Basil in my opinion. Then again there is no guarantees. More time game fishing and less time researching sounds good to me though.
Hi all,
I thought I'd chip in on this topic. Personally this is my order of operations for investing in our managed funds:
Kiwisaver up to the employer match. The vehicle I use is InvestNow, Foundation Series Total World Fund (Vanguard VT). I'm 25 years from being able to access my KS so the 0.50% buy/sell spread is worth the extremely low expense ratio.
Invest up to the FIF exemption limit. For me this is the Total US stock market (Vanguard VTI) using Hatch. The limit is $50,000 COST per person, so you need to watch out for dividends tipping you over the threshold.
Then everything else into my set asset allocation:
Simplicity Global Share Fund - hedged
Simplicity Global Share Fund - unhedged
Simplicity Global Bond Fund - hedged
These funds have an ER of 0.15% and invest directly so minimize tax leakage.
Then a small amount of exposure to the NZ market via Simplicity NZ Share Fund. Expense ratio of 0.1%.
Quote from: Dolcile on Apr 02, 2024, 09:00 AMHi all,
I thought I'd chip in on this topic. Personally this is my order of operations for investing in our managed funds:
Kiwisaver up to the employer match. The vehicle I use is InvestNow, Foundation Series Total World Fund (Vanguard VT). I'm 25 years from being able to access my KS so the 0.50% buy/sell spread is worth the extremely low expense ratio.
Invest up to the FIF exemption limit. For me this is the Total US stock market (Vanguard VTI) using Hatch. The limit is $50,000 COST per person, so you need to watch out for dividends tipping you over the threshold.
Then everything else into my set asset allocation:
Simplicity Global Share Fund - hedged
Simplicity Global Share Fund - unhedged
Simplicity Global Bond Fund - hedged
These funds have an ER of 0.15% and invest directly so minimize tax leakage.
Then a small amount of exposure to the NZ market via Simplicity NZ Share Fund. Expense ratio of 0.1%.
What is your FX demarcation line for hedged v unhedged Simplicity, or do you just have a standard mix of the two to get some partial hedging?
Quote from: Raven on Apr 02, 2024, 11:27 AMWhat is your FX demarcation line for hedged v unhedged Simplicity, or do you just have a standard mix of the two to get some partial hedging?
At the moment I'm 99% hedged - mostly because I didn't think deeply enough about it at the time that I moved from another provider. Any new capital is going into unhedged and I'm looking for an opportunity to move some of the hedged position to unhedged. At least 50/50.
Great to see Chris and Mark have done it again with out performance of the index and return over 10 percent for March.
Up 120 percent since inception.
https://discoveryfunds.co.nz/assets/Newsletters/Discovery-March-24.pdf
Outstanding.
Well done Pie Funds. Good results also.
https://www.piefunds.co.nz/Portals/0/Documents/Slice%20of%20Pie/04_April_Slice_of_Pie_Digital_2024.pdf?ver=HgBUha5fyX_d2aCoZx9O_w%3d%3d&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Slice%20Of%20Pie%20-%20April%2024&utm_content=Slice%20Of%20Pie%20-%20April%2024+CID_1eddb08fab78692e06d5fed606661739&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=Slice%20of%20Pie%20PDF
April was a tough month alright. I notice Discovery founders Chris and Mark topped up which is encouraging.
https://discoveryfunds.us11.list-manage.com/track/click?u=5c1216a1533df806fdc1c886f&id=3169fb1ad9&e=67af1006e4
Pretty good result for April considering small caps generally correct more severely than large caps in a correction. Think I will sit on the sidelines a while longer though. This quarter to June feels likely to me to be a period of consolidation after a record 5 month run to 31 March.
Quite like my large position in Barramundi warrants which confers upon me the right, but not the obligation to buy their shares on 25 October @ 63 cents, (latest NTA just under 76 cents) Probably just run with that and see the lie of the land with Discovery sometime after that warrant exercise date
Another great result from Discovery in May. Gosh fund closing soon to new investors.
https://www.discoveryfunds.co.nz/assets/Newsletters/Discovery-May-24.pdf
Quote from: Shareguy on Mar 19, 2024, 07:11 PMNever too late Basil in my opinion. Then again there is no guarantees. More time game fishing and less time researching sounds good to me though.
Sounds really good, and not to forget more time for walking my dog, staying fit and looking after myself better. 12 good long doggy walks in 12 days is a pretty good effort at this time of year! Quite clearly these are very smart guys at Discovery and FOMO got the better of me so as you know, I threw them a bone a while back and a couple more since.
Quote from: Basil on Jun 20, 2024, 04:52 PMSounds really good, and not to forget more time for walking my dog, staying fit and looking after myself better. 12 good long doggy walks in 12 days is a pretty good effort at this time of year! Quite clearly these are very smart guys at Discovery and FOMO got the better of me so as you know, I threw them a bone a while back and a couple more since.
Congrats Basil. Raising $300m in a short time to invest in such a concentrated portfolio of companies (20 company's) listed on the ASX/NZX is very impressive. Interesting that they have the bulk invested on the ASX. A sign of the times I guess.
Thanks Shareguy, yes, it's a sign of the times. Tony Alexander thinks the N.Z. economy is in deep doggy doo.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2024/06/economy-deep-in-the-excrement-poor-performing-businesses-getting-weeded-out-says-expert-tony-alexander.html
Quote from: Basil on Jun 21, 2024, 10:32 AMThanks Shareguy, yes, it's a sign of the times. Tony Alexander thinks the N.Z. economy is in deep doggy doo.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2024/06/economy-deep-in-the-excrement-poor-performing-businesses-getting-weeded-out-says-expert-tony-alexander.html
He didn't say doggy-doo ... and lets face it, other excrements like manure (e.g. from cow or sheep) are an amazing fertilizer :) ;
And anybody who cares for a garden knows that weeding is essential. So, I guess what Tony is saying is that this is the best time to start growing your investments. A bit more cheer might be appropriate.
So Tony says
And the economic pain "is going to get a lot worse" before the end of the year, especially the sectors of residential construction, retail and hospitality, despite Aotearoa narrowly escaping recession, he said.
We know that most NZ economists including Tony have been dead wrong before. I do agree that opportunities are starting to emerge. There is a lot of money sitting in term deposits and once interest rates start to fall equities should benefit.
I hope I'm wrong but I just don't see the NZX out performing Australia in the short to medium term. Have been further selling down NZ stocks and have added to Discovery Funds.
Quote from: Shareguy on Jun 22, 2024, 08:35 AMSo Tony says
And the economic pain "is going to get a lot worse" before the end of the year, especially the sectors of residential construction, retail and hospitality, despite Aotearoa narrowly escaping recession, he said.
We know that most NZ economists including Tony have been dead wrong before. I do agree that opportunities are starting to emerge. There is a lot of money sitting in term deposits and once interest rates start to fall equities should benefit.
I hope I'm wrong but I just don't see the NZX out performing Australia in the short to medium term. Have been further selling down NZ stocks and have added to Discovery Funds.
I'd see the decision NZ market vs Ossi market as a lower risk, lower reward vs. a higher risk, higher reward game. I'd see both the China risk as well as global warming weighing in against Australia.
Apart from that - tax treatment of NZ investors in Australian shares is a sad joke. You can't use the Australian tax (franking) credits and basically pay double tax compared to an Australian peer. Something anybody investing in Australia needs to consider if you do the numbers.
However - whatever risk-profile people might have, and how much of their income they decide to voluntarily hand over to various tax authorities ... I'd recommend to have enough money close to home to allow you to keep your life style and pay the bills. Anything else - just go for whatever your heart desires.
Discl: sold recently my last Australian shares because I was sick of the unequal tax treatment and as well the obvious disdain this company (but many do) displayed towards NZ shareholders. Quite ridiculous number of hoops to jump through just to get your dividend paid out into a NZ account. However - still holding a number of European shares and am as well exposed to a number of PIE funds invested in international shares.
For international diversity, one of the tools I use is "High Dividend Yield" ETFs (IDV, DTH, etc). They're pretty global in nature and so are inherently well diversified.
Expensive compared to (say) an S&P500 fund, but everything costs in this life.
Discovery Funds-June .Theycall it a "quiet month" but still significant outperformance.
What a winner this fund has been ...
https://discoveryfunds.co.nz/assets/Newsletters/Discovery-June-2024.pdf
Quote from: Stoploss on Jul 02, 2024, 10:15 AMDiscovery Funds-June .Theycall it a "quiet month" but still significant outperformance.
What a winner this fund has been ...
https://discoveryfunds.co.nz/assets/Newsletters/Discovery-June-2024.pdf
Yes another solid performance in a tough market.
Pro Medicus has been a great investment. From $1 per share and
$1.5m of earnings in FY14, today PME is $143 per share
and on track to deliver earnings of $80m in FY24.
Wow. Up 6.1 percent for July.
https://discoveryfunds.co.nz/assets/Newsletters/Discovery-July-24-Final.pdf
Quote from: Shareguy on Aug 02, 2024, 07:03 AMWow. Up 6.1 percent for July.
https://discoveryfunds.co.nz/assets/Newsletters/Discovery-July-24-Final.pdf
Love the way they cover all bases...rather cool
Markets have performed strongly recently. We don't have a crystal ball, but markets don't go up in a straight line and neither will the Fund.
At some point there will be a pullback. We're working hard but expectations need to remain grounded.
Very well worded by them and sage advice. Very happy to be on board.
A difficult month in August. Discovery however up again. Well done. Interesting comments on A2. Go Superloop (SLC)
https://discoveryfunds.co.nz/assets/Newsletters/Discovery-Aug-24.pdf
Mike says looking at increasing exposure to NZ companies for the first time in several years....
https://www.piefunds.co.nz/Portals/0/Documents/Slice%20of%20Pie/09_Sept_Slice_of_Pie_Digital_2024.pdf?ver=L0-BShWbHlZoIEZ1MDxJGg%3d%3d
Big congratulations to Discovery Fund , I make the reval published today the 2 year mark since inception .
$1 dollar in is now $ 2.56 .Simply awesome .Another good month so far with 10% plus performance so far .
Quote from: Stoploss on Sep 27, 2024, 04:08 PMBig congratulations to Discovery Fund , I make the reval published today the 2 year mark since inception .
$1 dollar in is now $ 2.56 .Simply awesome .Another good month so far with 10% plus performance so far .
WOW. Great performance in what is often a terrible month for stocks. My decision to significantly sell down my portfolio this year and add to Discovery has been one of the best decisions I have made. Well done Mark and Chris.
Congrats to you guys who got in early. It took me quite a while to come around and I've only been in for 4 months but up 24.4% in that timeframe when the ASX and NZX have ostensibly been flat, is frankly, quite remarkable. I'm a very happy camper and recently threw them another bone.
QuoteDear Investor,
Our mission is outstanding performance. From the beginning, we said we would limit the size of the Founders' Fund to maximise performance.
The Fund is now at a size where we're limiting additional investment from existing investors.
We may allow additional investment in the future. The timing will be dependent on market and fund performance. We will be in touch when an allocation becomes available.
We appreciate your ongoing support.
Kind regards,
Chris & Mark
email from the guys this morning. Looks like those who are not already on board will miss out in the future.
Very happy to be on board.
Quote from: Stoploss on Sep 27, 2024, 04:08 PMBig congratulations to Discovery Fund , I make the reval published today the 2 year mark since inception .
$1 dollar in is now $ 2.56 .Simply awesome .Another good month so far with 10% plus performance so far .
Here is the official word in the Sept update
https://discoveryfunds.co.nz/market-insights/discoverys-september-2024-update/
"The Founders' Fund reached the two year mark on 28th
September. In 24 months, the Founders' Fund is up 155%
vs the Index which is up 21.6%. "
Quote from: Stoploss on Oct 02, 2024, 07:25 AM"The Founders' Fund reached the two year mark on 28th
September. In 24 months, the Founders' Fund is up 155%
vs the Index which is up 21.6%. "
They followed that up with this.
QuoteTwo years proves nothing. We need to demonstrate
performance over the medium term.
Crickey...I'm really liking these guys modesty, and their determination to succeed over time.
Quote from: Basil on Oct 03, 2024, 07:40 PMThey followed that up with this.
Crickey...I'm really liking these guys modesty, and their determination to succeed over time.
Yes I Agree Basil. Also appreciate how they write about their detractors and learnings. Most of us have some bad picks if we are honest. The key is learning from it and not making the same mistake again.
I see they are up so far for October.
Really stunning results. After last month's amazing 9.4% return, as of 17th October, up another 6.1% in the month to date already. How do they do it ?
All tax free gains because they're a PIE and these returns after their expenses.
So happy to be on board. Maybe I should retire and leave all the bookwork to them ?
Quote from: Basil on Oct 18, 2024, 03:16 PMReally stunning results. After last month's amazing 9.4% return, as of 17th October, up another 6.1% in the month to date already. How do they do it ?
All tax free gains because they're a PIE and these returns after their expenses.
So happy to be on board. Maybe I should retire and leave all the bookwork to them ?
Stunning it is. Doubled last year and on track to do it again at this rate. Just shows me how small the NZ market is and how many great companies there are in Australia. Smart guys who vocus on companies that can generate great returns, have enough funding , and ideally founder led or high insider ownership.
One of the best decisions I have made was to sell down a large part of my NZ portfolio early on and put it into Discovery.
October was a difficult month but in the end another good performance for Discovery Funds. November is normally a great month for stocks so pleased to log in this morning after being away a week to see it's up.
https://discoveryfunds.co.nz/assets/Newsletters/Discovery-October-24.pdf
"We performed poorly in October" I'm absolutely loving these guys modesty and the super high goals they set themselves. Coming off the back of an exceptionally strong 9.1% return in September, there's nothing too shabby about 2.1% for October which beat the index of 1.8%.
Up another 2.48% for the first week of November to Thursday 7th and another strong day on the ASX yesterday should flow through to an increased reported NTA on Monday so November is off to a very good start. I just wish I could invest some more money with them. Thankfully they pay no dividends so monthly returns keep compounding away and keep growing. Rome wasn't built in a day so I'm really looking forward to how they go over the next 5 years.
[quote author=Basil link=msg=27047 date=
I just wish I could invest some more money with them. Thankfully they pay no dividends so monthly returns keep compounding away and keep growing. Rome wasn't built in a day so I'm really looking forward to how they go over the next 5 years.
[/quote]
Yes I hope they open it up again for existing investors at least. I note that still no mention of owning any NZX stocks...... I think they also own ASX NEU which was up 15 percent on Friday. So agree Monday should be a good day.
Strong day for Life360 yesterday too. Interesting company.
Discovery fund reval yesterday, new high I believe $ 2.75.
Go you good thing.
7.01% for November. WOW, how good is that!, the good times roll on and on and on...
Bugger. Wish I had an investment with these guys.
One thing is crystal clear. Mark and Chris are exceptionally talented. Very happy to be on board and if they ever open the fund again to more investment, I'd be very happy indeed to significantly increase my portfolio allocation their way.
As I get older, I realise it's time to hand over more control to the next generation of highly talented investors. More time for boating and walking my dog while their performance outshines mine, what's not to like lol
Quote from: Basil on Nov 30, 2024, 03:26 PM7.01% for November. WOW, how good is that!, the good times roll on and on and on...
Looking forward to the monthly update this week.
Nov + 8.55 % , $ 2.8264
Quote from: Stoploss on Dec 02, 2024, 04:34 PMLooking forward to the monthly update this week.
Nov + 8.55 % , $ 2.8264
Yes another stunning out performance. December historically a good month
Latest update. Go you good thing......
https://discoveryfunds.co.nz/assets/Newsletters/Discovery-Nov-24.pdf
Very good energy and lots of very happy people at the Discovery end of year celebration last evening.
Very impressed with Chris and Mark. They both struck me as extremely intelligent, fit and healthy looking, hardworking blokes in the prime of their life and seem super hungry to continue to generate serious market outperformance.
Only fly in the ointment is there was some talk of them paying some capital back in 2025 if the fund performance keeps going ballistic. They are keen to keep the fund at a boutique size and its already well over $300m with market outperformance since they closed the fund in late Sept. Mark mentioned they turned away more than $50m at the point of closing the fund and there's a waitlist for additional investment but it's extremely unlikely to ever be opened again.
Mark wouldn't put a number on the point at which they might consider paying some capital back, but he did mention if it keeps performing the way it is, they will consider doing so in mid 2025. I inferred from that the upper preferred limit of the fund size allowing for outperformance over and above the $300m invested is about $450-$500m and after that we're unfortunately quite likely to see a portion of our money returned. Mark mentioned one guy drew out $1m for a property deal and then tried to return it and they said no. Don't withdraw money unless you absolutely have too, is my thoughts on the matter.
Great update Basil, Thankyou.
Sorry I missed it. Yes I take my hat off to these guys. One of their competitors said to me that he thought they would extend it or open another fund so I'm pleased that they are sticking to their guns. Selling down my NZX portfolio and putting into Discovery early on is one of the best decisions I have made.
Great to be well positioned and watch the experts at work especially as I plan a lot more travel.
I will be looking for another Discovery for any surplus funds. Watch this space....
Quote from: Shareguy on Dec 04, 2024, 03:03 PMGreat update Basil, Thankyou.
Sorry I missed it. Yes I take my hat off to these guys. One of their competitors said to me that he thought they would extend it or open another fund so I'm pleased that they are sticking to their guns. Selling down my NZX portfolio and putting into Discovery early on is one of the best decisions I have made.
Great to be well positioned and watch the experts at work especially as I plan a lot more travel.
I will be looking for another Discovery for any surplus funds. Watch this space....
Mmh - I guess sometimes one can recognize an investment problem just by scanning small number of posts.
Always good to read the fine print of investment opportunities: "Past performance is no indicator for future performance" ... and - Oops - they don't even provide the paperwork required to sell legally to retail investors. I'd see this as a big red flag.
If they achieve above market returns, than clearly the only way to do this is by accepting higher risks. Great if it worked for them over the last couple of years, but surely - this does not mean it will stay this way forever.
If you have a lucky streak in the casino - do you assume that it will continue forever? Well, maybe you do. Many people do ... and often they find out too late that they did err.
Clearly not a fund I would invest material parts of our nest egg into ...
Quote from: BlackPeter on Dec 04, 2024, 05:09 PMMmh - I guess sometimes one can recognize an investment problem just by scanning small number of posts.
Always good to read the fine print of investment opportunities: "Past performance is no indicator for future performance" ... and - Oops - they don't even provide the paperwork required to sell legally to retail investors. I'd see this as a big red flag.
If they achieve above market returns, than clearly the only way to do this is by accepting higher risks. Great if it worked for them over the last couple of years, but surely - this does not mean it will stay this way forever.
If you have a lucky streak in the casino - do you assume that it will continue forever? Well, maybe you do. Many people do ... and often they find out too late that they did err.
Clearly not a fund I would invest material parts of our nest egg into ...
Thanks for your post BP.
This is a fund for wholesale investors only. They don't want retail investors it's that simple. High risk and high reward is what this is. It's very well explained in their documentation. Anyone who invests should understand this. And with that only invest what you can afford to loose. Yes a small number of posts but only a small pool of wholesale investors. Still there is plenty viewing the thread.
Yes the returns to date have been spectacular and yes going forward that may change. All I know is that I'm very, very glad that I made the decision to invest with Mark and Chris. It's been a game changer for me.
I have done well over the years investing directly in stocks and will continue to do so, but I personally think that is more like a casino these days, especially the NZX.
December update out for Discovery. A tough month down 2.5 percent against the index 2.7 percent. Still up 63 percent for the year and 176 percent since inception. A fantastic result.
https://discoveryfunds.co.nz/assets/Newsletters/Discovery-Dec-24.pdf
Managed fund related
Can highly recommend "Red Notice" by Bill Browder. A true storey of how Bill set up a managed fund Hermitage Capital and was the largest foreign investor in Russia. The corruption in the Russian government is hard to believe. A great read I thought.
Discovery was the third best fund return in NZ. Pie Australasian growth 2 also did well up 27 percent. Anyone invested with Lighthouse?
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/538119/where-were-the-best-investments-of-2024
Not the best month, but they acknowledge that and move on .
https://discoveryfunds.co.nz/market-insights/discoverys-january-2025-update/
Looking for some good reports this month .
Another difficult month. Very disappointing.
https://discoveryfunds.co.nz/assets/Newsletters/Discovery-Feb-25.pdf
Quote from: Basil on Mar 04, 2025, 12:58 PMAnother difficult month. Very disappointing.
https://discoveryfunds.co.nz/assets/Newsletters/Discovery-Feb-25.pdf
There is no free lunch. High risk funds (if any good) tend to have good and not so good times. This is one of the latter.
Hope they are prepared for the wartime economy.
Quote from: BlackPeter on Mar 04, 2025, 03:36 PMThere is no free lunch. High risk funds (if any good) tend to have good and not so good times. This is one of the latter.
Hope they are prepared for the wartime economy.
Yes, it's been very difficult times for tech, growth and momentum names in 2025, (especially where its more often than not unsupported by reasonable metrics). Very different to 2024 that's for sure. I expect for the foreseeable future we might see some of the froth and lofty PE's / no earnings companies come down to earth a bit. Whether after that, it's still the best place to be for long term growth is anyone's guess.
Congrats to Pie Funds holding (TRS.ASX)Reject Shop up over 105 percent in 5 days.
Quote from: Shareguy on Mar 28, 2025, 03:39 PMCongrats to Pie Funds holding (TRS.ASX)Reject Shop up over 105 percent in 5 days.
Any idea which funds have a holding ?
Yes Aust Growth One.
It's been a very tough month for stocks. Discovery having there worst month since inception. You have to take the bad with the good. Still confident longer term.
https://discoveryfunds.co.nz/assets/Newsletters/Discovery-March-25.pdf
What a bloody shocker. Down 8.4% AND 4.0% underperformance.
I have not been happy with how the fund has performed since the annual meeting in early Dec 2024. Fact is, value stocks are outperforming growth and tech and especially outperforming stocks with no underlying earnings to support share prices or growth trading on extreme metrics.
I expect value stocks to continue to outperform for quite some time hence the reason the vast majority of my investments are in stocks that are either defensive or are growth at a reasonable price. I will review the size of my holding again, (already quite substantially reduced it in early March), towards the end of this quarter if Discovery continues to give underwhelming performance.
This is a long term proposition. First 2 years and the fund was up over 200 percent. There will always be some bad months that's the nature of the game.
On the bright side if enough people withdraw their funds they might re open it again, as I for one will be increasing my allocation. Have complete faith in Mark and Chris and suspect at the end of this year investors will be happy.
Fair enough mate, you did very well getting in early and have heaps of embedded margin to absorb the bumps in the road ahead.
Well done Discovery to finish in the green after a very volatile month.
They say
It's important to remember that, whilst in the short-term
stock prices can be volatile, in the medium term, prices
follow company earnings. The earnings growth of our
companies is strong and predictable, which gives us
confidence in the outlook for the Fund.
https://discoveryfunds.co.nz/assets/Newsletters/Discovery-April-25.pdf
Yes, great recovery in April from being down ~ 10% at one point earlier in the month. That said, performance since they closed the fund to new investment in Sep 2024, has been very poor. Last 6 months is negative 0.3%. Now that markets have settled down a bit, maybe things will go better going forward. Let's hope so.
How does -0.3 compare to the index?
Quote from: Dolcile on May 04, 2025, 11:04 AMHow does -0.3 compare to the index?
Index is - 4%
All the numbers are in the above post .
Not sure why the disappointment then? -0.3% v -4% seems quite good.
One of the greatest ironies with investing in funds is when you go backwards but you outperform the index so you've got decent outperformance so you should be happy, right ? I have yet to master that trick lol
Great start to the month with Discovery. Their largest holding GDG up 7 percent today as well.
Pie Australasian funds also up 8 percent for the last month.
Discovery up more than 9% month to date in May. Temporary recovery or are the good times back ?
Quote from: Basil on May 28, 2025, 05:20 PMDiscovery up more than 9% month to date in May. Temporary recovery or are the good times back ?
Yes and today will see another great update as one of their top stocks up over 5 percent.
Are the good times back you say Basil? Well I wish I knew the answer to that.
Well done Discovery up 12.7 percent for the month. A new record.
https://discoveryfunds.co.nz/assets/Newsletters/Discovery-May-2025.pdf
Is this fund still open for new investment?
From the above link I guess not.
Limited Capacity: $300m close to new investors.
Sorry guys it is closed. Yes a great result for May but I note its only up 3.6% since the annual Christmas function 6 months ago.
Lots of work for the guys to do to prove their investment approach works in 2025.
I've been really disappointed with my NZ Share Fund, through Simplicity. Looking at the Salt Dividend Appreciation Fund, KFL and others. Just for broad nz share exposure.
Quote from: Dolcile on Jun 21, 2025, 10:32 PMI've been really disappointed with my NZ Share Fund, through Simplicity. Looking at the Salt Dividend Appreciation Fund, KFL and others. Just for broad nz share exposure.
Can't really comment on Simplicity. However - NZ Shares didn't do too well over the last couple of years compared to many international markets (and particularly US). Don't think one can blame any particular fund manager for this. Blame our politicians.
Over longer periods looks the performance of the NZX similar to US or European markets, i.e. our time might come again.
NZX underperformance compared to the US might well change with the actions of the orange gorilla trying to make the US economy as small as possible, but time will tell.
I totally agree with you, it isn't a fair comparison to the US/International markets.
However, in this case the 5 year return (before taxes) to May 2025 has been 3.79% pa which is below the market index return of 4.12% pan.
As well as lagging the index, it is also below a lot of the similar investment options over 5 years:
KFL 5.7% (Adjusted NAV return)
Salt dividend appreciation fund: 5.7%
Salt Core NZ Shares Fund: 4.12%
Another good result. Holders since inception have seen their money triple. Analyst job available......
https://discoveryfunds.co.nz/assets/Newsletters/Discovery-June-25.pdf
10.2% is a pretty decent run rate for the half year given all the ructions in the markets this year.
Well done Pie
https://www.piefunds.co.nz/Market-Insights/Article/market-update-july-2025
I've recently put some funds in the Australasian Dividend Growth Fund and been pleased with the return to date.
S&P500 is up nearly 9% YTD. I'm doing better in my individual stock selection - but on the return to effort ratio it is hard to beat a global index fund IMO.
Especially if its a PIE fund and they take all the hard work of FIF out of the equation for you. 15.69% for the last 3 years after fees. tax and FIF and there's no work whatsoever and you're well diversified around the world is not to shabby. https://www.smartinvest.co.nz/funds-and-performance/etfs/international-shares/smart-total-world-etf
Yeah exactly, it is outrageous really - especially as it compounds. Very glad I allocated my capital toward global funds instead of property like so many kiwis.
Congrats on another good month for Discovery
https://discoveryfunds.co.nz/assets/Newsletters/Discovery-July-2025.pdf
Very happy with the return this month from the PIE Fund Australian Dividend Fund 7.5% after fees
https://www.piefunds.co.nz/Portals/0/Documents/Investment%20Funds/Fact%20Sheets/2025/DIV.PDF?ver=qe-XbrltDht8R0b4Kr5v2g%3d%3d
Quote from: Dolcile on Aug 07, 2025, 06:12 PMVery happy with the return this month from the PIE Fund Australian Dividend Fund 7.5% after fees
https://www.piefunds.co.nz/Portals/0/Documents/Investment%20Funds/Fact%20Sheets/2025/DIV.PDF?ver=qe-XbrltDht8R0b4Kr5v2g%3d%3d
Yes great return for Pie. Also very happy holder
Quote from: Dolcile on Aug 07, 2025, 06:12 PMVery happy with the return this month from the PIE Fund Australian Dividend Fund 7.5% after fees
https://www.piefunds.co.nz/Portals/0/Documents/Investment%20Funds/Fact%20Sheets/2025/DIV.PDF?ver=qe-XbrltDht8R0b4Kr5v2g%3d%3d
With a couple of days to go, it is shaping as another good month for the PIE Funds ADF. Glad I sold out of my NZX50 fund and moved it to PIE Funds.
Yes Pie Growth fund up 39 percent in 12 months.
Yeah I was looking at that the other day for a client who is investing in his trust for his family. Naturally I have to be super conservative with this sort of thing as I'm a Trustee as well. I was very pointed in my comments to highlight the risk of "chasing hot returns" and highlighted the average return since inception was 14.5% before tax. I also highlighted that not only is 14.5% before tax a more appropriate yardstick to consider over the long run but I highlighted the risk that's its not uncommon at all when a fund has been on a tear one year, they underperform the next.
Well up 7 percent for the month and the founders say they underperformed. Yes the index was up 10. I say a very good result.
https://discoveryfunds.co.nz/assets/Newsletters/Discovery-Aug-25.pdf
Pie Funds Australasian Dividend Growth Fund has reported 9.7% for August. Very happy with that.
https://www.piefunds.co.nz/Portals/0/Documents/Investment%20Funds/Fact%20Sheets/2025/DIV.PDF?ver=qe-XbrltDht8R0b4Kr5v2g%3d%3d
Interesting that both PIE and Discovery hold Life360. 360.AU
It has performed well over the medium term.
Quote from: 777 on Sep 05, 2025, 05:19 PMInteresting that both PIE and Discovery hold Life360. 360.AU
It has performed well over the medium term.
Over the short term it's going gangbusters ... 360 up 10% overnight that's after 5 % in the US Friday.
For anyone interested, this was posted on the PIE Funds page:
"Please note the Australasian Dividend Growth Fund has reached capacity and will close to new investment from 22 October 2025. The final day you'll be able to invest in the fund will be 21 October 2025."
I've been very pleased with the performance and have taken put an application in for some more.
Quote from: Dolcile on Sep 23, 2025, 09:38 AMFor anyone interested, this was posted on the PIE Funds page:
"Please note the Australasian Dividend Growth Fund has reached capacity and will close to new investment from 22 October 2025. The final day you'll be able to invest in the fund will be 21 October 2025."
I've been very pleased with the performance and have taken put an application in for some more.
I'm not in that fund YET, but am in all the other Pie Aust funds and they are doing well all right. I agree a good option.
The Founders' Fund reached the three year mark on 28th
September. An investor who invested $1m three years ago
would have +$3.6m today.
Discovery has been a game changer. Slight underperformance in September.
https://discoveryfunds.co.nz/assets/Newsletters/Discovery-Sept-25.pdf
Quote from: Shareguy on Oct 02, 2025, 07:02 AMThe Founders' Fund reached the three year mark on 28th
September. An investor who invested $1m three years ago
would have +$3.6m today.
Discovery has been a game changer. Slight underperformance in September.
https://discoveryfunds.co.nz/assets/Newsletters/Discovery-Sept-25.pdf
Absolutely outstanding work . I love their commitment to always learn and do better , is that even possible ?
Quote from: Stoploss on Oct 02, 2025, 08:41 AMAbsolutely outstanding work . I love their commitment to always learn and do better , is that even possible ?
Yes they are both very upfront with mistakes and improvements. It's a PIE fund itself so the performance is truly outstanding. Apart from property, one of my best investments ever. I'm confident that it will get better.
Quote from: Shareguy on Oct 02, 2025, 07:02 AMThe Founders' Fund reached the three year mark on 28th
September. An investor who invested $1m three years ago
would have +$3.6m today.
Discovery has been a game changer. Slight underperformance in September.
https://discoveryfunds.co.nz/assets/Newsletters/Discovery-Sept-25.pdf
Well done mate.
Now in all four of Pies Australasian funds including the dividend fund.
I believe the current returns are going to continue and especially like the Australian small cap space.
The 1 year returns to date are
Growth. 47 percent
Dividend. 29 percent
Emerging. 24 percent
Growth 2. 21 percent
I hope you do really well out of it Shareguy. I do believe however a note of caution is warranted with most world markets including Australia trading at near record level's and stretched multiples. My caution is that its very easy to get seduced or lured into a fund on the back of one stellar years performance. I have felt the allure of the 47% performance in the Growth fund but decided to resist the temptation to chase it. Maybe I'll come to regret that decision, only time will tell.
Without fear or favour I always concentrate on the 5 year performance for shares and funds. This discipline helps me avoid "recency bias"
5 year performance is shown in the table here https://www.piefunds.co.nz/performance
I'm seeing 5 year performance for the growth 2 fund of 4.5% per annum, so before the current year of 21% the earlier 4 years must have been really bad, and 10.2% for the growth fund 5 year average so before the current year of 47% the previous 4 years must have been dismal.
For me, none of the PIE funds 5 year average performances beat what I have been doing under my own investment program.
In my long experience its often the case that after a really strong year, investment returns in the following year are poor. Maybe this time it will be different. Only time will tell. My thinking. By setting expectations around long term averages you are far less likely to be disappointed in the future.
Best wishes to investors in these funds.
Personally I'm very pleased with the Australasian Dividend Growth Fund, with a 16.8% pa return over the last 5 years.
Basil if you've outperformed that as a benchmark you have done outstandingly well. Love it!
Thanks Dolcile. Yes, there's an interesting back story to how I navigated the Covid crisis in early 2020 and resulting performance to the year ended 31 March 2021 that I might share sometime.
I see PIE have updated those returns in that link for Sept 30 now. No question about it, 16.8% average over 5 years is a very good result for the PIE Australian dividend growth fund. Its a bit of a shame their other funds are not performing so well.
Thanks Basil.
Your caution is warranted and only time will tell as you say. Like you, I have also done very well with my direct investments and sold out of most of my shares this year to fund a property. Its also good to realize a profit. However from what I have gleamed I think the Aust small/mid caps still have a way to go. No doubt Pie had a couple of bad years during the period Mark and Chris left which has negatively impacted the five year figures. The growth 2 fund which you have highlighted on a five year basis is their worst performing fund. Their flagship growth fund actually was 10.9 percent over the five years. If you look at the 3 year which takes out Covid and the changeover from Mark and Chris the returns are much better
Growth 29 Percent
Growth 2 17 percent
Divi 19.7 percent
Emerging 25 percent
As we know both Pie and Discovery believe that their is further growth. Both companies have done well finding under valued and take over targets. Have a look at this from Perpetual
https://www.perpetual.com.au/insights/why-asx-small-and-micro-caps-are-starting-to-outperform/?PreferredLocation=true
Also I find the 10 or 15 working days for a withdrawal attractive if I see something that I believe is better. Plus its a Pie fund which has tax benefits. The other thing is to consider is time. For me I want to spend more time in the boat looking for Sailor Rob and others.....
Thanks Shareguy.
As Perpetual correctly note, falling interest rates are generally a tailwind for smaller and microcap companies and your point about the transition of fund managers when Chris and Mark left is well made. Being a bit older and more conservative I'd be more inclined towards looking at the longer term performance than the shorter term and certainly the 15% per annum performance since the inception of their flagship Growth fund is very impressive over the long run.
Perpetual have also done very well with their Pure Microcap fund at 18.71% 5 year average so they have some good skills in that space as that sort of performance is hard work to achieve.
Agree 100% about the value of time, especially in regard to boating and perhaps even more so when it comes to walking my best mate, my dog lol. Frankly, I have "control issues". I struggle to let go of managing a meaningful portion of my portfolio. Maybe that's an occupational hazard, a personality trait, or my past outperformance, most likely a combination of these factors. That's very much a work in progress for me and on the agenda for late 2026...a time in my life when I am perceiving it will be age appropriate that I really should step back quite a bit. I think turning 65 late next year is something of a benchmark event in life, certainly I feel it will be in mine, a time when I really need to look at where I'm spending my time as nobody, not me or anyone else really knows how much time they have left. Nigel Latta's final book "Lessons on Living" is something I am really keen on reading very soon and I'm not really a great reader so obviously something inside me is telling me to read that to gain more perspective. I think it will be a fascinating book.
Maybe PIE's growth fund and their Australian dividend growth fund might be a good place for me to allocate some funds in due course, I'll mull that over. I don't see much in the way of special expertise with their European and international funds. Their the long term performance speaks for itself.
Yes it is hard to give up control and give your hard earned money to somebody else to manage, however those returns are very attractive. Still planning on investing directly in the New Zealand share market because I enjoy it. Agree with commentators that this interest rate melt up will continue. However it's very satisfying signing into Discovery and Pie Funds portals and seeing how your Investment is doing. Note Pies dividend fund is closing later on this month.
Nigel latta's passing was certainly a shocker. I have seen people that are very fit and healthy pass away way too early. I've also seen people that are the opposite and have punished their body with smoking and drinking who are in their 80s and 90s.
One thing for sure, you gotta make the most of it.
Checking in on daily updates of the Discovery fund is usually a very enjoyable part of the day, (today's update included). Many thanks indeed for your encouraging posts about Discovery, its been a very rewarding experience. Thanks for the heads-up about Pies dividend fund closing.
As an aside, the "Dividend" title of that fund I think is a bit misleading. I've had a look at the holdings and the sipo and to me it is far more a small cap growth fund.
I have money in six of the PIE funds.
Looking at 31/3/22 performance figures for Growth 2
1 mth 11.70%
3 mth -9.72%
6 mth -16.52%
1 yr -9.2%
3 yrs 17.31%
5 yrs 14.83%
It was the last 12 mths performance that made me reluctant to invest in Discovery as I was concerned that the two founders may have been responsible for the lack of performance. In hindsight a costly decision.
The point is the Growth 2 fund had underperformed before they left.
31st March 2022
Performance Unit Price
Fund 1 month 3 months 6 months 1 year 3 years (p.a) 5 years (p.a) 7 years (p.a) 10 years (p.a) Since inception (p.a) Total since inception Status
Australasian Growth
Dividend Growth 6.48% -4.86% -1.09% 21.92% 20.48% 17.15% 15.25% 17.72% 18.07% 476.49%
Growth -0.21% -15.59% -18.58% -9.79% 9.69% 9.09% 7.83% 12.21% 14.35% 582.89% CLOSED
Emerging 4.22% -4.38% -5.77% 3.84% 18.96% 15.09% 16.04% - 21.43% 473.21%
Growth 2 11.70% -9.72% -16.52% -9.20% 17.31% 14.83% - - 15.34% 157.96%
Global Growth
Global Growth -2.60% -13.69% -10.42% 0.67% 14.27% 11.87% 10.52% - 10.44% 134.51%
Growth UK & Europe 0.17% -11.47% -8.59% -1.46% 13.49% 10.06% - - 11.30% 78.55%
Global Growth 2 -0.77% -13.98% -8.51% -0.99% 7.63% - - - 3.91% 16.22%
Diversified
Conservative -0.94% -2.61% -2.50% 0.00% 2.98% 3.57% - - 3.84% 30.05%
Chairman's 2.15% -10.36% -8.90% 1.38% 14.69% 12.21% 11.53% - 11.54% 128.90%
Quote from: Dolcile on Oct 06, 2025, 03:01 PMAs an aside, the "Dividend" title of that fund I think is a bit misleading. I've had a look at the holdings and the sipo and to me it is far more a small cap growth fund.
Yes agree. Its what attracts me to the fund.
1.9% for September from PIE Funds Australian Dividend Fund. Underperformed the benchmark for the month, but well ahead on all other time periods.
https://www.piefunds.co.nz/Portals/0/Documents/Investment%20Funds/Fact%20Sheets/2025/DIV.PDF?ver=qe-XbrltDht8R0b4Kr5v2g%3d%3d
Quote from: 777 on Oct 07, 2025, 08:46 AMI have money in six of the PIE funds.
Looking at 31/3/22 performance figures for Growth 2
1 mth 11.70%
3 mth -9.72%
6 mth -16.52%
1 yr -9.2%
3 yrs 17.31%
5 yrs 14.83%
It was the last 12 mths performance that made me reluctant to invest in Discovery as I was concerned that the two founders may have been responsible for the lack of performance. In hindsight a costly decision.
The point is the Growth 2 fund had underperformed before they left.
Yes I can see how you came to that conclusion. I also weighed that up at the time as I was also in Pie back then. Came to the conclusion that overall Pie had a couple of bad years that skewed the figures as most years were very good with general outperformance of the relevant index. The growth 2 fund has not yet been a great success and has a low entry price compared to the others. However I have recently put money in to G2 as I like the current holdings and hope its upwards and onwards from here. But yes Growth 2 needs to perform a lot better. Certainly the performance of Discovery has been exceptional and I feel very grateful to be in it.. Thanks for posting
Another fund I have a position in is the Salt Long Short Fund. It performed very well during September and I enjoying reading their commentary which is much more detailed than most.
https://www.saltfunds.co.nz/_files/ugd/9b51d8_4230ab1df38f471a8b861f45e386bf9f.pdf
Thanks for sharing Dolcile. Interesting fund. Do you mid me asking what percentage of your portfolio is in there ? I might throw them a bone in due course.
Quote from: Dolcile on Oct 07, 2025, 09:54 AMAnother fund I have a position in is the Salt Long Short Fund. It performed very well during September and I enjoying reading their commentary which is much more detailed than most.
https://www.saltfunds.co.nz/_files/ugd/9b51d8_4230ab1df38f471a8b861f45e386bf9f.pdf
Thanks Dolcile for Posting this. Interesting comments re HGH and Tower.
Talking of other funds
https://lighthousefunds.nz/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/Lighthouse-Global-Equity-Fund-202509-September-2025.pdf
Quote from: Basil on Oct 07, 2025, 10:07 AMThanks for sharing Dolcile. Interesting fund. Do you mid me asking what percentage of your portfolio is in there ? I might throw them a bone in due course.
Of course, Basil.
It is only a very small allocation. Just some skin in the game, while I see how it performs. I'm viewing it as an equity diversifier. My current allocation at the end of September is:
Cash and fixed income: 10% [higher than I'd like but funds are set aside for a home upgrade, plus I have some nervousness around current valuations]
Alternates (Salt Long Short Fund): 3%
Australian equities (PIE Funds Australasian Dividend Fund): 9.5%
NZ equities (Turners, HLG, Tower): 6%
International equities (index funds): 71.5%
Thanks for sharing.
Quote from: Shareguy on Oct 07, 2025, 10:17 AMThanks Dolcile for Posting this. Interesting comments re HGH and Tower.
I agree. I have just had to read myself and like what they have to say.
Just on SALT, will this acquisition presumably have any effect on their strategies and team and investments etc?
https://www.saltfunds.co.nz/post/alvarium-acquires-100-of-salt-funds-management
Also, there's no difference in investing in these funds via InvestNow (where available) as opposed to going directly, right?
Quote from: entrep on Oct 08, 2025, 03:26 PMAlso, there's no difference in investing in these funds via InvestNow (where available) as opposed to going directly, right?
That's right. I'm going through InvestNow.
I made the decision to expand my own GARP investment program with more HLG and more TRA than chase 47% one year return in the PIE dividend growth fund or invest in any international fund.
International metrics look highly elevated to me and risk abounds e.g. Nasdaq as a whole trading on 31 times next year's earnings v 10 year average of 19, (source CNBC). Sure, you can argue that with A.I. its different this time but I think there's a very real risk this is a bubble and "this time it's different" is the most dangerous phrase that exists when it comes to investment.
Quote from: Basil on Oct 14, 2025, 08:05 AMI made the decision to expand my own GARP investment program with more HLG and more TRA than chase 47% one year return in the PIE dividend growth fund or invest in any international fund.
International metrics look highly elevated to me and risk abounds e.g. Nasdaq as a whole trading on 31 times next year's earnings v 10 year average of 19, (source CNBC). Sure, you can argue that with A.I. its different this time but I think there's a very real risk this is a bubble and "this time it's different" is the most dangerous phrase that exists when it comes to investment.
I share your concerns Basil regarding the international markets which is why I've sold all my US stocks. However there is plenty who will argue that the current impetus is going to continue, specially with AI.
With Interest rates declining and the economy hopefully turning a corner I see the New Zealand market as a very safe bet. However the Australian small cap space is still offering plenty of opportunities in my opinion and have invested in the belief that the Australian small caps will continue to outperform the NZX over the short to medium term.
The latest update has Pies 1 year return as
Growth. 48.5 percent
Emerging. 31.9
Div growth 27.2
Growth 2. 18.3
It's not really a fair comparison but I have included the ASX small ordinaries and the NZX50 as follows.
ASX 1 year return 15.96 percent. 3 year 13.23 percent
NZX50 1 year 0.83 percent. 3 year 3.98 percent
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-nzx-50-index/
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-asx-small-ordinaries-select-index/
I'm not expecting another 48 percent return BUT I'm expecting another good year. If I don't like the performance or feel that I have better opportunities elsewhere 10 working days to get my funds is not long to wait, well it's how I see it anyway. We will see.
Quote from: Shareguy on Oct 14, 2025, 12:05 PMWith Interest rates declining and the economy hopefully turning a corner I see the New Zealand market as a very safe bet. However the Australian small cap space is still offering plenty of opportunities in my opinion and have invested in the belief that the Australian small caps will continue to outperform the NZX over the short to medium term.
Fair enough mate. I'm a bit older so I am happy to take a lower risk approach on high quality stocks on the NZX. I also like the dividend yield.
A tough month for Discovery. ZIP not playing ball. November has not started well either.
https://discoveryfunds.co.nz/assets/Newsletters/Discovery-Oct-25.pdf
I suspect Life 360 has become a huge position for them over the years. You'll recall their max position of the fund is 10% but that's based on the cost price not the current one. If Mark and Chris bought this when they first formed the fund they've made approx ten times their money from where it was in Sept 2022 in the late $4 range so its anyone's guess how big a percentage this is of their fund. The non disclosure of all holdings and their size and no financial statements or annual reports is really unusual and does not make me feel quite uncomfortable.
From Jarden's website 360 trades on 390 times trailing earnings. For context that's about 7 times the super high growth Nvida's trailing earnings ! I know its growing strongly BUT if something looks like a duck, quacks like a duck and waddles like a duck, guess what, its probably a duck. What I am getting at here is I think Life 360 is a tech bubble and many, many. many years of future growth has already been well and truly baked into the price. 360 is down approx 13.5% since its all time high in the mid $50's on 10 October and the Discovery fund is down approx 9.5% from that point too. Coincidence ? I don't think so and I think 360 has become too large a position in their fund and the metrics are too stretched. Trailing PE's on a couple of their other holdings, GDG 59 and ZIP 60 are also expensive but not in the "looney tunes" stratospheric range.
Anyway...I hope the party keeps going but since March when I withdrew quite a lot of my holding from Discovery this is just a modest 6% portfolio position for me and reflects my concerns that tech is quite possibly, maybe even probably in a bubble.
My musing is that I think all investors have to find their own unique place of ease with their investment strategy and I feel more comfortable with my GARP approach where prices are well supported by earnings and growth, both of which are at very reasonable metrics which is why I have such a significant portfolio allocation to my two favorite stocks in that sector TRA and HLG, combined worth 37% of my portfolio now. Not having to pay annual management fees of 1.2% and 20% bonus fees for outperformance is frankly, other very pertinent factors as well, especially the 20% performance fee which is right at the very extreme top of the industry range.
Sometimes in a quiet moment I wonder if managers who are incentivsed really handsomely with huge 20% performance fees, deliberately take on board high risk strategies to try and get more of those extremely lucrative fees, (huge money can be like a drug), knowing that if they get it badly wrong going forward they don't have to pay back any previous performance fees paid. Maybe I'm just old and cynical these days but gosh those performance fees paid in 2023 and 2024 must have been mind blowing and huge money can do strange things to young guys brains. Maybe I'm wrong and just a boring old cautious fart these days lol...time will tell I guess.
If it goes down another 10% to be a major 20% correction, I'm going to reevaluate where I stand with Discovery.
Great post Basil. Caution is a good thing and I do think that as you get older less risk is warranted. So you make good sense. It's not just 360, a number of the small caps in general have been weak recently. I do agree though that 360 seems highly valued.
However from my point of view Discovery is still up over 250 percent since inception and on a One year basis 35 percent is not to shabby. If I could put more money in I would. I do agree the lack of disclosure is not for everyone, but that's wholesale funds for you. It also allows Mark and Chris to build up/down positions without disclosure which has benefits.
I have been with Discovery for a long time so I feel grateful to be part of it, but can understand that others may have different goals/risk tolerances.
Thanks Shareguy. Congrats on doing so well with Discovery. You've done very well getting in so early.
Fair point about the wholesale nature of the fund.
For what its worth KW has recently sold most of her tech / momentum / small cap's.
I quite enjoy theses updates from Salt
https://www.saltfunds.co.nz/_files/ugd/9b51d8_5e7cb91a4fac405fb2cac16cc8a1a7c2.pdf
Quote from: Dolcile on Nov 07, 2025, 02:22 PMI quite enjoy theses updates from Salt
https://www.saltfunds.co.nz/_files/ugd/9b51d8_5e7cb91a4fac405fb2cac16cc8a1a7c2.pdf
I like the cut of these guys' gib. Intend to invest shortly.
Quote from: entrep on Nov 10, 2025, 11:10 AMI like the cut of these guys' gib. Intend to invest shortly.
Yeah I was a little concerned about the level of fees - but they seems to be outperforming the benchmark quite consistently and it like it as diversifier from my other investments.
Substantial correction with Discovery from the peak in early October its down ~ 15% which coincides with a substantial correction in Life 360's share price. I'd love to know what percentage of their fund is in 360.
Frankly, I feel a bit nervous their position in that company has been allowed to grow too big and maintaining an outsized position may not be prudent from a risk management perspective going forward. I know its a wholesale fund and they are within their rights to do what they like without disclosure, but nevertheless I would like to know the level of risk our money is being managed with.
I don't have a huge amount in there so am pretty sure they would fob me off with a "we don't disclose that" sort of statement.
Does anyone feel brave enough to ask ?
Quote from: Dolcile on Oct 07, 2025, 09:38 AM1.9% for September from PIE Funds Australian Dividend Fund. Underperformed the benchmark for the month, but well ahead on all other time periods.
https://www.piefunds.co.nz/Portals/0/Documents/Investment%20Funds/Fact%20Sheets/2025/DIV.PDF?ver=qe-XbrltDht8R0b4Kr5v2g%3d%3d
The october update isn't out yet - unusually late. I think october was okay but it is taking a hammering so far this month. A lot of the heat coming out of the australian small cap space at the moment.
Quote from: Basil on Nov 18, 2025, 10:31 AMSubstantial correction with Discovery from the peak in early October its down ~ 15% which coincides with a substantial correction in Life 360's share price. I'd love to know what percentage of their fund is in 360.
Frankly, I feel a bit nervous their position in that company has been allowed to grow too big and maintaining an outsized position may not be prudent from a risk management perspective going forward. I know its a wholesale fund and they are within their rights to do what they like without disclosure, but nevertheless I would like to know the level of risk our money is being managed with.
I don't have a huge amount in there so am pretty sure they would fob me off with a "we don't disclose that" sort of statement.
Does anyone feel brave enough to ask ?
Yep brutal and it continues today with a lot of the small caps getting hammered. Discovery have a limit of 10 percent at cost so no more than that.
Quote from: Dolcile on Nov 18, 2025, 01:35 PMThe october update isn't out yet - unusually late. I think october was okay but it is taking a hammering so far this month. A lot of the heat coming out of the australian small cap space at the moment.
The October update is here. Up 2.5 percent
https://www.piefunds.co.nz/Portals/0/Documents/Investment%20Funds/Fact%20Sheets/2025/DIV.PDF?ver=qe-XbrltDht8R0b4Kr5v2g%3d%3d
Quote from: Shareguy on Nov 18, 2025, 03:19 PMYep brutal and it continues today with a lot of the small caps getting hammered. Discovery have a limit of 10 percent at cost so no more than that.
10% "at cost" for 360 which was less than $5 when the fund started means it's anyone's guess how much of the fund it is now with the shares up 600% since Sep 2022. I hope they are managing the risk prudently.
Wow, down 19% now for Discovery in 5 weeks. That really is brutal.
Quote from: Basil on Nov 19, 2025, 02:42 PMWow, down 19% now for Discovery in 5 weeks. That really is brutal.
Yep. At this rate will be getting out the Mince for Dinner😂.
QuoteYep. At this rate will be getting out the Mince for Dinner😂.
You haven't been to ze Zupermarket lately have you? Beef mince now more expensive zhan Chicken Breast and Pork Chops, or even ze right Vish from my Vishmonger. Mince ze new 'luxury item'.
Ah vell, at least I expect a good vintage vrom my Alsace Vineyard zhis year. Could be a 'liquid Christmas' vor me coming up......
RB
Quote from: Red Baron on Nov 20, 2025, 09:37 AMYou haven't been to ze Zupermarket lately have you? Beef mince now more expensive zhan Chicken Breast and Pork Chops, or even ze right Vish from my Vishmonger. Mince ze new 'luxury item'.
Ah vell, at least I expect a good vintage vrom my Alsace Vineyard zhis year. Could be a 'liquid Christmas' vor me coming up......
RB
OMG you are right Red Baron. Mince has shot up. My wife says I need to do more shopping😉
Got a bit excited it was going to be fresh kingfish for dinner tonight caught from the clear blue waters off Gt Barrier island but alas it was just a baby. Those little rat kingies fight hard though. Will try again later. Plan B is Sealord crumbled hoki fried in olive oil. A surprisingly good alternative.
Had an epiphany over here. 360 is not worth a PE of about the same number when it's only growing at 20%. There's nothing underpinning it, it's just as risky as bitcoin. Hope the guys at Discovery have woken up and smelled the coffee like I have and sold.
Quote from: Basil on Nov 21, 2025, 02:09 PMGot a bit excited it was going to be fresh kingfish for dinner tonight caught from the clear blue waters off Gt Barrier island but alas it was just a baby. Those little rat kingies fight hard though. Will try again later. Plan B is Sealord crumbled hoki fried in olive oil. A surprisingly good alternative.
Had an epiphany over here. 360 is not worth a PE of about the same number when it's only growing at 20%. There's nothing underpinning it, it's just as risky as bitcoin.
Nice Basil, you have got great weather for the Barrier. Re 360 some say it was over valued at $2.50 and then it went to over $55. Comparing to Bitcoin a bit harsh. Certainly this correction is over due. Good company's with growing eps like 360 will find a bottom and then .....
Anyway more importantly how big was the Kingfish🤫 Any Snaps?
Mate it was way undersize and not by a small margin. Maybe a foot and a half. Sorry no pics, I was keen to return it to the water ASAP to make sure it had the best chance of growing bigger.
Saw a pod of dolphins half way over and then a bit later we saw some small whales. Maybe 40-50 feet long, only 4 of them I counted. Was a great trip over and the weather is perfect !
WOW, now down a staggering 15.02% in the month to date in November. Not happy. Almost exactly 20% from the peak in early October. Breathtaking.
I calculated today a return for the 2025 calendar year of only 9.55% and only 7% since their last annual celebration in early December 2024.
I'm not going to this year's pre-Christmas "celebration", as frankly there is nothing to celebrate.
Yes it's been a shocker month. If today's prices hold should be a good update tom.
Life360 hasn't helped. Down 33% since it's high in October.
Quote from: 777 on Nov 24, 2025, 06:23 PMLife360 hasn't helped. Down 33% since it's high in October.
Indeed. A great company with huge growth priced for perfection.
Quote from: BlackPeter on Dec 04, 2024, 05:09 PMMmh - I guess sometimes one can recognize an investment problem just by scanning small number of posts.
Always good to read the fine print of investment opportunities: "Past performance is no indicator for future performance" ... and - Oops - they don't even provide the paperwork required to sell legally to retail investors. I'd see this as a big red flag.
If they achieve above market returns, than clearly the only way to do this is by accepting higher risks. Great if it worked for them over the last couple of years, but surely - this does not mean it will stay this way forever.
If you have a lucky streak in the casino - do you assume that it will continue forever? Well, maybe you do. Many people do ... and often they find out too late that they did err.
Clearly not a fund I would invest material parts of our nest egg into ...
Just came across last years comment. Maybe some of the huge risks they entered into went wrong? But never mind - in future everything will be well ... or not?
360 was up about 7% yesterday and another 6% so far today.
360 CEO selling some 360 shares. Not a good look.
Share price dropped 3.9% today.
360 Target prices
Canaccord US$115
UBS US$110
Stifel US$92
Citizens US$95
Bell Potter AUD$52.50
Average of 10 analysts rates 360 at buy with a target price of $49. Very surprised by that. https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/LIFE360-INC-58195451/consensus/
Good to see small caps heading back up with positive updates from Discovery and Pie funds. Note Zip and 360 up today
Quote from: Shareguy on Nov 27, 2025, 01:42 PMGood to see small caps heading back up with positive updates from Discovery and Pie funds. Note Zip and 360 up today
I missed the positive update from Discovery?
Quote from: Bev on Nov 27, 2025, 04:47 PMI missed the positive update from Discovery?
I'm talking about the dollars going up in the online portals.
Thanks Shareguy
Over the 5 trading days 20-27/11/25 360s share price lifted 8%
while Discovery 21-28/11/25 lifted 7.11%
Given that 360 is only part of the portfolio there must be some good news built into the 7.11%
Quote from: Bev on Nov 28, 2025, 09:04 PMOver the 5 trading days 20-27/11/25 360s share price lifted 8%
while Discovery 21-28/11/25 lifted 7.11%
Given that 360 is only part of the portfolio there must be some good news built into the 7.11%
Good point Bev, I'm looking forward to the update especially to see if they made use of the market decline. Small caps seem to be heading back up including Zip which is a big position. Funds managers like pullbacks as it gives them opportunity to deploy cash which is why often funds rise quickly after a correction.
Let's hope for a December Xmas rally. Will enjoy catching up with the Discovery guys at the Xmas function and other holders.
To add a bit of excitement to my day, I thought an interesting exercise would be to set up a watchlist of Discovery holdings.
I tidied the older Discovery newsletters out my email folder recently, but I was able to come up with GDG, 360, TUA, DUR, and SLC. Unfortunately, I don't know if they are all current holdings. Doing a comparative graph over the last month was interesting.
Quote from: Bev on Nov 29, 2025, 09:40 AMTo add a bit of excitement to my day, I thought an interesting exercise would be to set up a watchlist of Discovery holdings.
I tidied the older Discovery newsletters out my email folder recently, but I was able to come up with GDG, 360, TUA, DUR, and SLC. Unfortunately, I don't know if they are all current holdings. Doing a comparative graph over the last month was interesting.
I have done exactly the same. Much easier with Pie as the Stocks are disclosed. Would love to see your graph if you can work out how to post it and don't mind sharing.
I just used the advanced graph function on DBs site and chose compare. They all come up a different colour. I can try doing a snapshot and posting it.
Interestingly, I was able to download the snapshot to this site, however when I dragged it into position it turned into programming language.
Quote from: Bev on Nov 29, 2025, 10:21 AMI just used the advanced graph function on DBs site and chose compare. They all come up a different colour. I can try doing a snapshot and posting it.
Ok thanks will have a look
re Discovery - I wonder what is happening with TUA?
Quote from: Bev on Dec 01, 2025, 04:44 PMre Discovery - I wonder what is happening with TUA?
Great result and the sp up on a down day. Have a look at Q126 actual. A stunning first quarter.
FY25 NPAT 6.9m
Q126 NPAT 9.1m
https://discoveryfunds.co.nz/assets/Newsletters/Discovery-November-25.pdf
Underperformance for November a whopping 8%
Underperformance for the last 6 months 14.6%
Underperformance for the last year 11%
Strategy still working ? Run out of idea's ? Paying too much for growth ? Holding previous winners too long ? Some combination of these ?
Nothing worth celebrating this year that I can see at their annual celebration tonight. Wonder what the mood of the room will be like this year after last years euphoria ? I'm not going along to find out.
Quote from: Basil on Dec 02, 2025, 09:00 AMhttps://discoveryfunds.co.nz/assets/Newsletters/Discovery-November-25.pdf
Underperformance for November a whopping 8%
Underperformance for the last 6 months 14.6%
Underperformance for the last year 11%
Strategy still working ? Run out of idea's ? Paying too much for growth ? Holding previous winners too long ? Some combination of these ?
Nothing worth celebrating this year that I can see at their annual celebration tonight. Wonder what the mood of the room will be like this year after last years euphoria ? I'm not going along to find out.
Just noticing - they put the most important information for their investors even in bold letters on the footer of their newsletter:
QuoteAn investment may achieve a lower than expected return and investors risk losing some or all of their principal investment. Past performance is no indication of future performance
So, I guess, they just deliver what they always promised ...
That's the standard disclaimer you see on all unit trusts and funds but well worth keeping in mind.
Maybe they just got lucky with 360 (up 600% since the fund formed and GDG up a similar amount) and now they have run out of idea's ?
Quote from: Basil on Dec 02, 2025, 10:32 AMThat's the standard disclaimer you see on all unit trusts and funds but well worth keeping in mind.
Maybe they just got lucky with 360 (up 600% since the fund formed and GDG up a similar amount) and now they have run out of idea's ?
That would seem to be the case.
Seems like it. They should start providing more detail. Lucky I found this thread as from the newsletters alone I was intending to invest at some point. Will hold off until things are clearer
Discovery is a closed wholesale fund and was originally a minimum $250K investment. They might open the fund soon with the way its been performing.
Quote from: Basil on Dec 02, 2025, 12:28 PMDiscovery is a closed wholesale fund and was originally a minimum $250K investment. They might open the fund soon with the way its been performing.
I knew the $250K but how do you know its closed?
Quote from: entrep on Dec 02, 2025, 01:42 PMI knew the $250K but how do you know its closed?
They closed it to new investment in Sept 2024.
Any insights from Discovery's xmas do?
Quote from: Bev on Dec 03, 2025, 08:41 AMAny insights from Discovery's xmas do?
Was about 100 odd of us who attended. Mark and Chris both spoke about how disappointed they were on the recent performance of the fund. They made the point that the fund is still up 15 percent ytd. They have used the volatility to increase positions and are still very positive.
I personally spend a bit of time with both of them and tried to find out what percentage of the fund 360 was and if they had a rule on taking profits. My questions unfortunately did not get answered and I was told it was confidential and wouldn't be disclosed. I also asked with this recent volatility had there been many withdrawals and I was told no ,so I guess that says that most people are happy with the way things are going.
Also spoke to some other investors who were not fazed re the performance.
A very good night was had.
Thanks Shareguy
Quote from: Shareguy on Dec 03, 2025, 11:39 AMWas about 100 odd of us who attended. Mark and Chris both spoke about how disappointed they were on the recent performance of the fund. They made the point that the fund is still up 15 percent ytd. They have used the volatility to increase positions and are still very positive.
I personally spend a bit of time with both of them and tried to find out what percentage of the fund 360 was and if they had a rule on taking profits. My questions unfortunately did not get answered and I was told it was confidential and wouldn't be disclosed. I also asked with this recent volatility had there been many withdrawals and I was told no ,so I guess that says that most people are happy with the way things are going.
Also spoke to some other investors who were not fazed re the performance.
A very good night was had.
Just curious - given its a closed fund ... how would people get out, if they want to? I suppose they would need to find a buyer, don't they?
It means closed to new investors. Ten business days for withdrawals.
Quote from: BlackPeter on Dec 03, 2025, 03:22 PMJust curious - given its a closed fund ... how would people get out, if they want to? I suppose they would need to find a buyer, don't they?
They pay you out of incoming funds or have to sell some stock. Hence the 10 days to do this. Same a kiwisaver or any other unit trusts.
Note it's not uncommon for a fund to close for new investment .
https://www.piefunds.co.nz/Market-Insights/Article/australasian-dividend-growth-fund-to-close
Quote from: Shareguy on Dec 03, 2025, 11:39 AMWas about 100 odd of us who attended. Mark and Chris both spoke about how disappointed they were on the recent performance of the fund. They made the point that the fund is still up 15 percent ytd. They have used the volatility to increase positions and are still very positive.
I personally spend a bit of time with both of them and tried to find out what percentage of the fund 360 was and if they had a rule on taking profits. My questions unfortunately did not get answered and I was told it was confidential and wouldn't be disclosed. I also asked with this recent volatility had there been many withdrawals and I was told no ,so I guess that says that most people are happy with the way things are going.
Also spoke to some other investors who were not fazed re the performance.
A very good night was had.
I knew what I was getting into but the lack of disclosure and transparency is ringing alarm bells.
Summing up the situation.
No financial statements ever
No annual report ever,
No copy of the audit report ever.
No report from the Trustees, ever.
No disclosure of all investment positions and sizes other than max 10% cost at the time of acquisition, (which is meaningless if a stock goes up by 500% as it could become massively overweight in the portfolio) How would anyone know if they exceeded that original undertaking of 10% max at cost price limit anyway ?
No disclosure of policy around profit taking
No questions taken after speeches at the annual get-together
No private disclosure of policy even to a long time original investor, (I knew full well there was no point in me ringing up and asking)
No accountability when the fund underperforms, (they are happy to take a whopping 20% performance fee when there's outperformance but repay none of it when the fund massively underperforms)
In the last 4 months they have underperformed by 2.6%, 2.5%, 4.6% and 8%. Note the accelerating trend. Not much contrition shown in the latest monthly newsletter as to why they have underperformed to a record ever extent but there was assurances in the previous monthly report that the past underperformance was behind them and changes had been made and words to the effect we are very confident going forward. With the benefit of hindsight this was a clear display of hubris.
They don't want any checks and balances of any kind whatsoever, other than from the auditor and trustee that they actually own what they say they own.
Trust us we're experts and know what we're doing. What could possibly go wrong... Are they experts with sufficient experience to handle a bear market ?
During their years at PIE, I did some research with the assistance of Gemini to ask when they started and finished, PIE historical unit price data and a CAGR calculator to determine that their long term performance there delivered a 12.17% CAGR for the PIE Growth fund and a 11.0% CAGR for the PIE Growth 2 fund. I don't think their historical performance in the funds management field is anything special considering the bull market prevailing at the time.
As I see it, they took in a lot of money in the first 2 years of their fund which supported the share prices of their stock selections over time. They got very lucky with 360 and GDG and earned huge performance fees in the first 2 years which they are not repaying any part thereof despite 11% index underperformance in the last year.
Here's an interesting point. Since they closed the fund to new investment in Sept 2024, they have underperformed the index by 0.5% by my own calculations.
To me, they are chasing high growth stocks and hold them on mega high metrics. That's a very, very high risk strategy. Together with the woeful lack of disclosure, their underperformance since the fund closed and their very modest performance before they started their own fund I have drawn the conclusion they simply got lucky with GDG and 360 and the way they run this fund and what they're invested in and the lack of disclosure all makes me quite uncomfortable so my time as a Discovery investor has come to an end.
Best wishes to holders. I hope it works out well for you. I am happy to paddle my own canoe going forward.
I think those who have been in for quite a long time might want to consider a partial withdrawal, i.e. withdrawing their original capital invested so they are just playing with their profits and getting a "free ride" going forward. Discovery is a VERY high risk fund.
Basil note re the performance fees .
They have a high water mark so investors won't be paying any for a while ......
At least you got a Xmas drink ... no invites or functions anywhere else in NZ .
I didn't go. Just reporting what I was told that they didn't even take questions after their speeches which is surprising given their recent woeful underperformance
QuoteIn the last 4 months they have underperformed by 2.6%, 2.5%, 4.6% and 8%. Note the accelerating trend.
Interesting that PIE funds Australian funds weathered the tumultuous month of November a heck of a lot better than Discovery which was down a whopping 9.5% https://www.piefunds.co.nz/Performance
PIE funds taking a lower risk and / or more balanced and diversified approach to Australian growth stocks ?
It is all very interesting, Basil. It seems like Discovery were way to exposed to 360 / and or didn't take profits on the way through.
Quote from: Dolcile on Dec 10, 2025, 12:56 PMDiscovery were way to exposed to 360 / and or didn't take profits on the way through.
The fund was down an incredible 15% at one point in November. My gut feel is It feels like the fund is being run in such a manner as to amount to "reckless endangerment" which is why I got out, not following my gut feel is usually a mistake. Young guns chasing big performance fees have come and gone before. Its the steady players that make it through the bear markets. PIE have been around for quite a while now. I might throw them a bone in due course but at this stage I am really enjoying buying very high quality growth companies myself on ludicrously low multiples and not paying fund managers any fees for managing my money.
A managed fund I invest in is Te Ahumairangi (Nov 25 Fund Update below)
Te Ahumairangi Nov 25 Fund Update (https://teahumairangi.co.nz/assets/Uploads/Te-Ahumairangi-Fund-Fact-Sheet-November-2025-v2.pdf)
It is my preferred managed fund for the following reasons...
- run by Nicholas Bagnall who had a stellar record over 26 years at ACC
- track record of 17.98% p.a. return over four years since inception albeit in a buoyant global equity market
- 100% global equities providing easy exposure to international shares (I invest directly in NZ shares so don't want NZ shares in a fund)
- reasonable fees for active management 0.62% p.a. and no performance fees
- value investor type approach focused on lower risk reasonably priced stocks with decent visibility of future cash flows and strong balance sheets
- good disclosure in monthly fund updates
- the insights on the web site indicate an intelligent approach to investing in my view
I don't have a barrow to push on this and recommend everyone DYOR but I have found it a good fit for me - easy to sleep at night, good returns to date, no FIF complexity that comes with direct investment in global shares.
You can access directly through Te Ahumairangi for $50k plus investments or alternatively through Investnow for lower amounts and KiwiSaver (no difference in fees either way).
I welcome others views on this.
As a fellow investor in Te Ahumairangi my view on your comments is "I agree". My only real wish is that rather than being a primarily unhedged fund they utilized a bit more hedging from time to time.
Thanks Raven. I don't mind unhedged myself to get more exposure to the growth and success of international economies. But it does bring more volatility and risk (upside and downside) in NZD terms.
Quote from: Basil on Dec 05, 2025, 11:21 AMI knew what I was getting into but the lack of disclosure and transparency is ringing alarm bells.
Summing up the situation.
No financial statements ever
No annual report ever,
No copy of the audit report ever.
No report from the Trustees, ever.
No disclosure of all investment positions and sizes other than max 10% cost at the time of acquisition, (which is meaningless if a stock goes up by 500% as it could become massively overweight in the portfolio) How would anyone know if they exceeded that original undertaking of 10% max at cost price limit anyway ?
No disclosure of policy around profit taking
No questions taken after speeches at the annual get-together
No private disclosure of policy even to a long time original investor, (I knew full well there was no point in me ringing up and asking)
No accountability when the fund underperforms, (they are happy to take a whopping 20% performance fee when there's outperformance but repay none of it when the fund massively underperforms)
In the last 4 months they have underperformed by 2.6%, 2.5%, 4.6% and 8%. Note the accelerating trend. Not much contrition shown in the latest monthly newsletter as to why they have underperformed to a record ever extent but there was assurances in the previous monthly report that the past underperformance was behind them and changes had been made and words to the effect we are very confident going forward. With the benefit of hindsight this was a clear display of hubris.
They don't want any checks and balances of any kind whatsoever, other than from the auditor and trustee that they actually own what they say they own.
Trust us we're experts and know what we're doing. What could possibly go wrong... Are they experts with sufficient experience to handle a bear market ?
During their years at PIE, I did some research with the assistance of Gemini to ask when they started and finished, PIE historical unit price data and a CAGR calculator to determine that their long term performance there delivered a 12.17% CAGR for the PIE Growth fund and a 11.0% CAGR for the PIE Growth 2 fund. I don't think their historical performance in the funds management field is anything special considering the bull market prevailing at the time.
As I see it, they took in a lot of money in the first 2 years of their fund which supported the share prices of their stock selections over time. They got very lucky with 360 and GDG and earned huge performance fees in the first 2 years which they are not repaying any part thereof despite 11% index underperformance in the last year.
Here's an interesting point. Since they closed the fund to new investment in Sept 2024, they have underperformed the index by 0.5% by my own calculations.
To me, they are chasing high growth stocks and hold them on mega high metrics. That's a very, very high risk strategy. Together with the woeful lack of disclosure, their underperformance since the fund closed and their very modest performance before they started their own fund I have drawn the conclusion they simply got lucky with GDG and 360 and the way they run this fund and what they're invested in and the lack of disclosure all makes me quite uncomfortable so my time as a Discovery investor has come to an end.
Best wishes to holders. I hope it works out well for you. I am happy to paddle my own canoe going forward.
I think those who have been in for quite a long time might want to consider a partial withdrawal, i.e. withdrawing their original capital invested so they are just playing with their profits and getting a "free ride" going forward. Discovery is a VERY high risk fund.
Discovery is a wholesale fund and is not for retail investors or anyone with a short term horizon. Yes it's high risk, yes it has had a "rough" patch lately, any yes not a lot of information is disclosed. At this stage I will be putting more in when or if the fund opens again. Only time will tell if it's a good move or not, but I'm prepared to take the risk and prepared for any volatility that will occur as part of investing long term.
Disc/ Just to be clear I have nothing to do with Discovery or any other fund and am not recommending it to anyone.
Quote from: Mos on Jan 02, 2026, 05:09 PMA managed fund I invest in is Te Ahumairangi (Nov 25 Fund Update below)
Te Ahumairangi Nov 25 Fund Update (https://teahumairangi.co.nz/assets/Uploads/Te-Ahumairangi-Fund-Fact-Sheet-November-2025-v2.pdf)
It is my preferred managed fund for the following reasons...
- run by Nicholas Bagnall who had a stellar record over 26 years at ACC
- track record of 17.98% p.a. return over four years since inception albeit in a buoyant global equity market
- 100% global equities providing easy exposure to international shares (I invest directly in NZ shares so don't want NZ shares in a fund)
- reasonable fees for active management 0.62% p.a. and no performance fees
- value investor type approach focused on lower risk reasonably priced stocks with decent visibility of future cash flows and strong balance sheets
- good disclosure in monthly fund updates
- the insights on the web site indicate an intelligent approach to investing in my view
I don't have a barrow to push on this and recommend everyone DYOR but I have found it a good fit for me - easy to sleep at night, good returns to date, no FIF complexity that comes with direct investment in global shares.
You can access directly through Te Ahumairangi for $50k plus investments or alternatively through Investnow for lower amounts and KiwiSaver (no difference in fees either way).
I welcome others views on this.
Looks good Mos. Diversified with not over weight positions in Ai. Returns have been good.
Thanks for sharing Mos. I agree with Shareguy it looks good, well diversified, proper disclosure with top ten holdings and noting also the very low fees for a managed fund of only 0.6% per annum. Also its decent sized fund with no performance fees. As you mention, fund manager has a highly credible long term track record.
Other Alternatives:- Smart Shares total world fund achieved very similar returns for the 3 year period to the end of November at 21.84%, has lower fees, 0.4% per annum and even better diversified. https://www.smartinvest.co.nz/funds-and-performance/etfs/international-shares/smart-total-world-etf
Smart shares S&P500 had even better growth, up 24.51% per annum over the last 3 years and even lower fees at 0.34% https://www.smartinvest.co.nz/funds-and-performance/etfs/us-shares/smart-us-500-etf and then there's the large growth US ETF up 33.5% per annum over the last 3 years https://www.smartinvest.co.nz/funds-and-performance/etfs/us-shares/smart-us-large-growth-etf
Maybe a good idea to spread one's international portfolio allocation around amongst a number of different funds.
Thanks for your comments Shareguy and Basil. Some good points to consider. If I was looking for a Smartshares type index fund I would be inclined towards Simplicity's total world unhedged (0.15% p.a.fee) or Investnow Foundation series (0.06% p.a. fee but 0.5% entry/exit fees detract).
However, I am not comfortable with the index composition including NVDIA at almost 7% and Tesla at almost 2% along with ritzy valuations for many AI and other "growth" stocks with no earnings to speak of at this point. I am personally more comfortable with the Te Ahumairangi fund's composition and primary focus on value stocks underpinned by earnings and I am prepared to pay the 0.6% active management fee on this basis. It will be interesting to see how the fund goes in absolute terms and relative index over my time horizon of the next 10+ years.
Quote from: Mos on Jan 05, 2026, 05:13 PMThanks for your comments Shareguy and Basil. Some good points to consider. If I was looking for a Smartshares type index fund I would be inclined towards Simplicity's total world unhedged (0.15% p.a.fee) or Investnow Foundation series (0.06% p.a. fee but 0.5% entry/exit fees detract).
However, I am not comfortable with the index composition including NVDIA at almost 7% and Tesla at almost 2% along with ritzy valuations for many AI and other "growth" stocks with no earnings to speak of at this point. I am personally more comfortable with the Te Ahumairangi fund's composition and primary focus on value stocks underpinned by earnings and I am prepared to pay the 0.6% active management fee on this basis. It will be interesting to see how the fund goes in absolute terms and relative index over my time horizon of the next 10+ years.
Thanks Mos. I could go look - but I'm on mobile only at the moment - do you know:
1. Whether there is a buy / sell spread?
2. What the redemption period is? Id be using the invest now platform
Thanks again
Hi Dolcile,
Re Te Ahumairangi per PDS on Investnow...
1. buy/sell spread 0.1%
2. redemption wording below
"You may request redemption of some or all of your investment at any time. Payment will normally be made within 5 business days of our receiving a redemption request from you. However, we may either defer or suspend Fund redemptions.
Fund redemptions may be deferred if:
• within 60 Business Days, we receive one or more redemption requests totalling more than 10% of Fund units on issue, and
• we consider deferral to be in the general interests of all Fund investors.
Fund redemptions may be suspended if we believe allowing investors to take their money out would not be workable or would prejudice investors generally. For instance, suspension could apply if we decide to wind up the Fund or if we are unable to realise underlying fund holdings. If redemptions are suspended and you submit a redemption request, we will not process it until the suspension is lifted.
In the case of either a deferral or suspension, investors will receive the redemption price applicable at the end of the deferral or suspension period (or redemption prices, in the case of deferred redemptions which are paid out over a period of time). In the case of either a deferral or suspension, it also means that there may be a delay in you getting your money out of the investment.
More information about deferrals and suspensions can be found in the OMI document for the Fund and in the Trust Deed.
When you redeem all or part of your investment from the Fund, we will redeem your investment at the unit price for the Fund, adjusted for the applicable sell spread for the Fund."
Thank you
Discovery Dec update/review .
https://discoveryfunds.co.nz/assets/Newsletters/Discovery-December-25.pdf
PIE Australian funds performance in December also under pressure.
https://www.piefunds.co.nz/Performance
And other positive month for the Salt Long Short Fund
https://www.saltfunds.co.nz/_files/ugd/9b51d8_768a6f3eaacb40fb9c304b6151ec12fd.pdf
I've got a small allocation to it. It is just the high fees that put me off a larger stake. I do enjoy the monthly reports.
Quote from: Basil on Jan 08, 2026, 04:33 PMPIE Australian funds performance in December also under pressure.
https://www.piefunds.co.nz/Performance
Yes another tough month for the Ausi small caps.
Pie at least had a good performance for the year with
Growth up 37 percent
Emerging up 45 percent
I'm very happy with that. I see Zip was up over 7 percent yesterday, hopefully Jan is positive.
Quote from: Shareguy on Jan 09, 2026, 08:32 AMYes another tough month for the Ausi small caps.
Pie at least had a good performance for the year with
Growth up 37 percent
Emerging up 45 percent
I'm very happy with that. I see Zip was up over 7 percent yesterday, hopefully Jan is positive.
Yes the emerging company fund ( closed ) has been awesome . From early April 2013 @ $ 1.00 to $ 10.70 today
a 10 bagger to be proud of.
Quote from: Stoploss on Jan 06, 2026, 11:38 AMDiscovery Dec update/review .
https://discoveryfunds.co.nz/assets/Newsletters/Discovery-December-25.pdf
Much more subdued and less bluster than the last couple
Looking forward to Discovery update Tom. Life 360 up 26 percent so far today.
Quote from: Shareguy on Jan 23, 2026, 01:37 PMLooking forward to Discovery update Tom. Life 360 up 26 percent so far today.
And now smacked back down to $28.9ps
Gosh, Discovery, following on from November's 8% and December's shocking 9.5% underperformance and a string of monthly underperformances before that put in another shocker in January underperforming by 9.1% taking their 6 months underperformance to 38.9% !
I'm pleased to be out as I still believe many of their tech companies are trading on unrealistic multiples.
360 in particular, their growth rate in revenue is not all that impressive.
Its well worth noting that since closing the fund to new investment in Sept 2024 and without fresh capital to provide price support to existing positions they have underperformed the index by 19%.
Jan update from Discovery - https://discoveryfunds.co.nz/assets/Newsletters/Discovery-January-2026.pdf
Seems like these guys rode a hot hand to start and now reverting to the mean.
Quote from: Dolcile on Feb 03, 2026, 09:52 AMSeems like these guys rode a hot hand to start and now reverting to the mean.
Only plus is the "management fees " have a high water mark. So a long time till we need to pay any extra .....
I've read a couple of times over the years that its the third year of a funds life cycle that you find out if they're any good or not and if they're capable of taking profits on their original best idea's and coming up with new idea's.
If you average out these guys performance over all the years they were at PIE funds and then Discovery they're probably slightly better than average and that's it but I think value and GARP stocks will outperform their tech selections going forward.
If they keep underperforming like they have been the clear risk is widespread fund withdrawals which could exacerbate the underperformance trend. I'd be surprised if to some extent that's not happening already as nearly 39% underperformance in the last 6 months is really shocking.
Even some original fund investors who have done well overall must be wondering if they should withdraw the original capital they invested and simply play with "the houses" money going forward. That would make profound common sense to me if I was one of those investors.
Yes another tough month. Feb hasn't started well either. I'm told good things happen to people who wait and I'm very patient and have no plans to cash in.
Oooaf what's happening in the Australian market today? A lot of red.
XRO down 15%
WTC down 9%
SEK and REA 6%
360 down 4%
HUB down 6%
ZIP down 7%
Thank goodness I got out of the PIE Australasian Dividend Fund.
Quote from: Dolcile on Feb 04, 2026, 01:14 PMOooaf what's happening in the Australian market today? A lot of red.
XRO down 15%
WTC down 9%
SEK and REA 6%
360 down 4%
HUB down 6%
ZIP down 7%
People are worried AI will break down all the propriety software these companies have developed.
I'm not so sure myself but AI is certainly going to be busy...hope they're up for it.
Should make investing easy...everyone will be out of business except AI..lol
People selling tech that is in many cases still ludicrously overpriced for value and GARP stocks.
I think this switch has a long way to go.
Quote from: Shareguy on Feb 03, 2026, 04:58 PMYes another tough month. Feb hasn't started well either. I'm told good things happen to people who wait and I'm very patient and have no plans to cash in.
On the other hand ... bubbles tend to burst, and patience might not be supportive in that regard. Anybody knows exactly whats in the fund? If most of the companies produce stuff people need, than yes, patience might be good, but if most of stockprices are driven up by the AI bubble, it well might keep go down.
Quote from: Turkey on Feb 04, 2026, 02:07 PMPeople are worried AI will break down all the propriety software these companies have developed.
I'm not so sure myself but AI is certainly going to be busy...hope they're up for it.
Should make investing easy...everyone will be out of business except AI..lol
Agree with this. Discovery and Pie have a number of these, which is why they are getting hammered. However these companies are in most cases profitable with huge growth. More pain to come before we see a bottom I think.
BRM is loaded with them too..
Xero, Wisetech, Seek, REA, CAR but only about 5% fund holding for most of these ...maybe they like wisetech as got 7% as at December report.
There will be some winners and losers in these holdings for sure...might just take some time to work out which ones..lol
Let's see how the active fund managers position and perform...
Interesting times...I see BRM recently added BHP and RIO after avoiding resources for a long time...guessing their looking at copper
Salt Funds update here https://www.saltfunds.co.nz/_files/ugd/9b51d8_fa79c5b435e84eab92663c79cdfd9a1a.pdf
Always a good sensible read
What's frightened the NZX today ?
And 360 down another 9% as I type.
I wonder how the Discovery fund is going so far in feb.
The whole tech sector in Australia is getting absolutely monkey hammered.
The season of reckoning for looney tunes tech valuations is upon us and its got a LONG way to go in my opinion.
Quote from: Basil on Feb 13, 2026, 04:46 PMThe whole tech sector in Australia is getting absolutely monkey hammered.
The season of reckoning for looney tunes tech valuations is upon us and its got a LONG way to go in my opinion.
It is kind of strange that the AU tech sector is getting hammered but the SP500 (which is dominated by tech) is flat YTD.
In my opinion its a far more mature and developed market and the tech sector there is dominated by mega caps that in many cases have not completely unrealistic forward metrics considering their the growth rates. Were for example Wisetech and XRO ever worth a forward PE of circa 100 ? That's the question the Barramundi fund manager should have been considering quite some time ago and the question I posed to him at the annual meeting. When analysts start making up completely new ways to value tech stocks you know its time to abandon ship. I still think for example 360 is egregiously overpriced when you look at the quite modest growth rate in top line revenue. It could halve again from here or even worse. As for all the Australian tech stocks with no earnings at all...don't start me up on that topic.
Quote from: Dolcile on Feb 13, 2026, 03:51 PMAnd 360 down another 9% as I type.
I wonder how the Discovery fund is going so far in feb.
Today's recap was down 7.46% for Feb
So after the disaster today more to come ... also note CTD is still suspended and depending upon who you talk to could be worthless ....
Speaking to the converter Basil :-) I'm quite happy with my portfolio of HLG, TRA, SKL, TWR, Kernel NZ Property Fund and a total world fund.
Quote from: Stoploss on Feb 13, 2026, 05:58 PMToday's recap was down 7.46% for Feb
So after the disaster today more to come ... also note CTD is still suspended and depending upon who you talk to could be worthless ....
I didn't realise they had Corporate Travel exposure. Quite possibly will be zero as you say.
Quote from: Dolcile on Feb 13, 2026, 06:00 PMSpeaking to the converter Basil :-) I'm quite happy with my portfolio of HLG, TRA, SKL, TWR, Kernel NZ Property Fund and a total world fund.
You've made a good case with SKL mate, as have others. I bought some today. Keep it quiet as I want some more lol
Quote from: Stoploss on Feb 13, 2026, 05:58 PMToday's recap was down 7.46% for Feb
So after the disaster today more to come ... also note CTD is still suspended and depending upon who you talk to could be worthless ....
In my opinuon its not just a question of where fair value for these tech stocks is, the hidden danger is that funds that own a lot of tech stocks will be getting a lot of redemption requests which leads to further selling which leads to more redemption requests and furthrr selling and so on. Just as Discovery attracted significant funds when it was outperforming, the opposite will be the case now as 39% underperformance for the 6 months to 31 January is serious plus more in February. Clearly the sector now has serious downward momentum which could be sustained for quite some time. Never a dull moment for Australuan tech investors that's for sure !
Quote from: Basil on Feb 13, 2026, 04:46 PMThe whole tech sector in Australia is getting absolutely monkey hammered.
Bonus points for use of the phrase monkey hammered....will have to remember that.
Quote from: Basil on Feb 13, 2026, 06:23 PMYou've made a good case with SKL mate, as have others. I bought some today. Keep it quiet as I want some more lol
I did wonder who the big dog was gobbling up all the stock ;)
Great buying. The more I read/learn the move I like their prospects.
I'm waiting for another transaction to settle so I can top up.
Quote from: Basil on Feb 13, 2026, 06:32 PMIn my opinuon its not just a question of where fair value for these tech stocks is, the hidden danger is that funds that own a lot of tech stocks will be getting a lot of redemption requests which leads to further selling which leads to more redemption requests and furthrr selling and so on. Just as Discovery attracted significant funds when it was outperforming, the opposite will be the case now as 39% underperformance for the 6 months to 31 January is serious plus more in February. Clearly the sector now has serious downward momentum which could be sustained for quite some time. Never a dull moment for Australuan tech investors that's for sure !
Yes it's almost unbelievable the speed of decline which shows no sign of coming to an end. To be fair it was the same going the other way. Very high risk with a high waiting to software stocks. Hopefully Mark and Chris have a plan and we will soon see it going back the other way.
I have no faith in active managers outperforming the market. Back to simple index tracking funds for my international exposure. I think NZ is slightly different, there seems to be good opportunities for retail investors to identify unappreciated gems.
Lots of talk on CNBC in the last few weeks about how A.I..is going to impact SAAS companies and others.
The effects are very real already. For example the I shares expanded software index down 22% YTD, even the magnificent 7 are down 7% YTD.
On the other hand defensive staple companies that cannot be affected by A I. Like Walmart and Costco are on surprisingly high metrics.
Talk that up to 25% of lower level staff in professional firms like legal and accounting for example might be made redundent by the effects of A.I.
We certainly live in interesting times.
Quote from: Shareguy on Feb 05, 2026, 12:10 PMAgree with this. Discovery and Pie have a number of these, which is why they are getting hammered. However these companies are in most cases profitable with huge growth. More pain to come before we see a bottom I think.
Too true ZIP - 40 % today ouch ......
Quote from: Stoploss on Feb 19, 2026, 04:49 PMToo true ZIP - 40 % today ouch ......
A shocker for sure. Gosh I feel for Mark and Chris. Will they be doubling down, cutting our losses or riding it out.
On the positive Hub up 13 Percent so far today and Superloop was up heaps yesterday.
Quote from: Shareguy on Feb 19, 2026, 05:45 PMA shocker for sure. Gosh I feel for Mark and Chris. Will they be doubling down, cutting our losses or riding it out.
On the positive Hub up 13 Percent so far today and Superloop was up heaps yesterday.
Problem is no idea if they even own them as it said at the last update " initiated 4 new positions and cut 3" .
They only declared 360,GDG and ZIP. So 2 out of 3 since reporting have gone South .
Quote from: Stoploss on Feb 19, 2026, 05:59 PMProblem is no idea if they even own them as it said at the last update " initiated 4 new positions and cut 3" .
They only declared 360,GDG and ZIP. So 2 out of 3 since reporting have gone South .
True, will be an interesting update Tom.
Massive earnings beat by nvidia. I read - but haven't confirmed - that nvidia is trading on a low multiple than Walmart.
Waiting on the next Discovery report with baited breath...
Quote from: entrep on Mar 04, 2026, 02:59 PMWaiting on the next Discovery report with baited breath...
Indeed. February was another shocker and unfortunately March hasn't started well either.
Quote from: Shareguy on Mar 04, 2026, 05:26 PMIndeed. February was another shocker and unfortunately March hasn't started well either.
Change in their stated companies in February.. All negative
360 (10.39%)
GDG (13.57%)
ZIP (27.92%)
Any idea what percentage Discovery was down in Feb? I did my final exit mid-month.
Fully expected that I might have triggered a rebound. ;)
The Iran conflict won't be helping.
Quote from: Shareguy on Mar 04, 2026, 05:26 PMIndeed. February was another shocker and unfortunately March hasn't started well either.
I don't think the money hammering of the tech sector is over and done with yet. Could go on for quite some time. Eventually the tide will turn and tech will be flavour of the month again. Its been a wild rollercoaster ride for you so far eh mate.
Quote from: Bev on Mar 05, 2026, 04:19 PMAny idea what percentage Discovery was down in Feb? I did my final exit mid-month.
Fully expected that I might have triggered a rebound. ;)
The Iran conflict won't be helping.
My account says a loss of 8.2 percent for Feb. Sorry your out Bev, but understand.
Quote from: Basil on Mar 05, 2026, 06:53 PMI don't think the money hammering of the tech sector is over and done with yet. Could go on for quite some time. Eventually the tide will turn and tech will be flavour of the month again. Its been a wild rollercoaster ride for you so far eh mate.
Yes it's been brutal. Can only hope that the tide will come in again soon.
Quote from: Shareguy on Mar 05, 2026, 07:24 PMMy account says a loss of 8.2 percent for Feb. Sorry your out Bev, but understand.
Thanks Shareguy - I can't complain, over 40% gain for two years. Felt I had to preserve our capital.
Feb report out. I think it's very well written. I also agree with what they are saying.
Insert from the report
19 Directors purchased stock in our companies post reporting. That's the highest level of Director buying we've seen post a reporting period.
Directors sell for many reasons, but they only buy for one:
to make money.
The tide will come in, we just might have to wait a bit longer. When it's very volatile I do my very best not to look at the portfolio too much. When the tide comes in "and it will" there might be a flood.
https://discoveryfunds.co.nz/assets/Newsletters/Discovery-February-2026.pdf
Sounds like they are backing the truck up . That didn't work last month.
Markets and cycles change , things go out of favour and you have to go with the times.
Time will tell on this one , but it is been poor money management for the last 12 months being -58.6 % to the relevant index.
Hopefully they have learnt something from this rout and have a strategy to get more money off the table
at times, then sit on the sideline and wait for the right market conditions to evolve to re enter the market.
AI thought it was a very interesting set of newsletters (I gave it from Aug onwards):
This is a really interesting set of documents to read in sequence. Here's my take, covering performance, the managers' communication style, and what stands out strategically.
The performance story is striking. Over these eight months, you can watch a fund go from a position of extraordinary strength to a serious drawdown. In September 2025, the fund hit its high-water mark with 262.3% total return since inception and 53.3% annualised — genuinely exceptional numbers. By February 2026, total return had fallen to 154.6% and the annualised figure dropped to 31.4%. That means roughly 40% of the fund's cumulative gains were given back in about five months. Meanwhile, the index was broadly flat to positive over the same stretch, so the relative underperformance was severe — the fund went from 207.6% cumulative outperformance in September to just 90.6% by February.
The monthly return sequence tells the story clearly: after modest underperformance in August and September (both positive months but trailing the index), the fund posted five consecutive months of negative returns from October through February, totalling roughly -34% compounded. The index returned roughly +6% over that same period. That's a ~40 percentage point gap in half a year.
The narrative arc in the newsletters is worth paying attention to. There's a recurring pattern in the language that I think any prospective investor should notice:
Each month of underperformance is framed as an opportunity. In August, they say they've "reset" and have "fresh ideas." In October, "the opportunity is ahead." In November, "we always respond strongly." In December, they're buying into the selloff and expect February reporting to drive a re-rating. In January, they compare the period to 2022 and say "summer will come." By February, they note 19 directors buying stock in portfolio companies as validation.
The optimism is relentless and the framing barely changes despite the losses compounding. There's an almost formulaic structure: acknowledge underperformance briefly, explain it away with external factors (resource rotation, AI fears, risk-off sentiment, Middle East events), reaffirm the process, and promise better days ahead. To their credit, they do occasionally own specific mistakes — the CTD position in November is a good example where they acknowledge a genuine process failure. But broadly, the tone doesn't match the severity of what's happening to returns.
The strategy itself raises some questions over this period. The fund is concentrated (targeting ~20 holdings) and benchmark-unaware in ASX/NZX small caps. That's a profile that will inherently produce lumpy returns — big outperformance in good times, potentially painful drawdowns in bad. The early track record (inception through mid-2025) was spectacular, and concentration was a tailwind. But concentration cuts both ways, and this period showed that clearly.
A few specific strategic observations from the reports: they exited Superloop by October after it stopped working for them, they built a significant Zip Co position that went badly wrong in February (down 35% post-result on bad debt concerns), they got caught in the CTD accounting restatement, and they repeatedly leaned into the thesis that quality industrial companies were being unfairly punished by AI disruption fears and resource rotation. That thesis may ultimately prove correct, but the conviction in it cost them through this window.
The portfolio turnover also seems quite high for a supposedly long-term focused fund. In January alone they initiated four new positions and cut three. That's a lot of activity for a 20-stock portfolio and hints at a more trading-oriented approach than the "Four Ps" fundamental framework might suggest.
On the "alignment" point they emphasise repeatedly — the founders having virtually all their liquid net worth in the fund — this is genuinely meaningful and worth acknowledging. It's a strong signal of conviction and means they're feeling the pain alongside investors. But it can also create psychological pressure to swing aggressively to recover losses, which may partly explain the high turnover and increasingly aggressive positioning into the drawdown.
Overall assessment: The since-inception numbers remain impressive even after the drawdown (31.4% annualised vs 15.5% for the index through February 2026). The question for any investor is whether the early outperformance reflects genuine, repeatable skill in small-cap stock picking, or whether it reflects concentrated bets in a favourable environment that are now mean-reverting. The honest answer is that eight months of data in either direction isn't enough to know. What I'd watch for is whether the managers adapt their approach or whether the newsletters six months from now are still promising the re-rating is just around the corner.
That's actually a really good summary.
The overconfidence would be a concern for me, if I was an investor in their fund.
Pretty interesting too. I am in the Salt fund.
https://www.saltfunds.co.nz/_files/ugd/9b51d8_ba83e55ab9464c0fbe908f72c0372f4d.pdf
The contrast between these two fund managers is sharp and really illuminating — both in terms of strategy, performance characteristics, and especially communication quality.
The most obvious difference is in how they think about risk. Discovery is a concentrated long-only fund swinging hard at ~20 ASX/NZX small caps. Salt is a long-short fund with 51 longs and 33 shorts, net exposure of around 52%, and an explicit mandate to deliver returns in all market environments. The result of this difference is visible in the volatility numbers: Salt's annualised volatility since inception is 6.56% versus 13.32% for the broader market — and Discovery, being concentrated long-only small caps, would almost certainly be materially higher than that market figure. Salt's near-zero correlation (0.065) to equity markets is genuinely remarkable over an 11+ year track record.
On performance, the comparison is more nuanced than it first appears. Discovery's headline numbers are higher — 31.4% annualised even after the drawdown versus Salt's 11.31% since inception. But context matters enormously. Salt has been running since July 2014, over 11 years, through multiple market regimes. Discovery has been running since September 2022, a period that was broadly very favourable for small-cap growth stocks for most of its life. Salt's risk-adjusted returns are exceptional — delivering equity-like returns at half the market's volatility with essentially no market correlation. On a Sharpe ratio basis, Salt would look far superior. And critically, Salt's return profile is far more consistent: 10% over the last six months, nearly 15% annualised over five years, with a smooth upward-sloping equity curve on that chart. Discovery's curve, by contrast, would show a rocket ship followed by a cliff.
The communication style is where the difference becomes most stark. Reading Matthew Goodson's commentary versus the Discovery newsletters feels like reading two completely different genres.
Goodson's writing is dense, specific, and intellectually honest in a way that's refreshing. He walks through macro conditions in Australia, New Zealand, and the US with concrete data points — RBA rate decisions, trimmed mean inflation figures, credit growth numbers, unemployment prints, swap rates. He names specific positions, tells you what worked, what didn't, and crucially why with actual analytical reasoning. When he discusses the AI theme hitting software stocks, he doesn't just wave his hands — he works through the specific impact on his own holdings like IPH and DUG Technology, explaining the bull case with granular detail about patent law requirements, valuation multiples, and short interest positioning. When Readytech fell 50% and management had misled him about their sales issues, he writes plainly that they were wrong, sold immediately, and it's now immaterial. No sugar-coating.
Compare that to Discovery's newsletters, which follow a near-identical template every month: brief acknowledgment of underperformance, external attribution (resource rotation, AI fears, sentiment), reaffirmation of process, and a promise that next month will be better. The analytical depth is shallow by comparison — you get a featured company write-up that reads more like a broker initiation note than genuine portfolio manager reflection. When Discovery discusses their mistakes, the framing is almost always that the market is wrong and will come around, rather than seriously interrogating whether their thesis was flawed.
The self-awareness gap is particularly notable. Goodson openly calls his CBA short a "widow-maker." He admits his commodity shorts have been painful and acknowledges he's been "lonely" in that trade, while also noting the fundamental basis for his view (record inventories) and that it's starting to work in March. He tells you his win/loss ratio was a mediocre 54% versus the 60%+ he targets. He describes covering tech shorts too early. There's a comfort with being wrong on timing while maintaining analytical rigour about the underlying thesis.
Discovery, by contrast, tends to frame every setback as temporary and every position as about to work. The January newsletter's comparison to 2022 — "buying straw hats in winter" — is evocative language but it's doing rhetorical work to avoid confronting the possibility that some of their thesis calls were simply wrong. The CTD position in November is the one exception where they engage in genuine process critique, and even there, the lesson drawn (accounting for short interest) feels somewhat narrow given the scale of the loss.
One fascinating overlap: both funds held Superloop at various points. Discovery held it as a top-3 position through mid-2025, saw it sell off after its August result, and by October noted they had reduced or exited it. Salt then bought it in the weakness around the $2.40 level and saw it rally 28.3% in February on a strong result and acquisition. That sequence nicely illustrates the different approaches — Discovery rode the momentum up and got shaken out, while Salt waited for distressed pricing and bought into forced selling.
On the AI disruption theme, both managers are navigating the same market environment, but their responses differ markedly. Discovery repeatedly characterises the AI selloff as indiscriminate and overdone, buying aggressively into it. Salt is more measured — Goodson acknowledges the structural significance of AI, works through which of his positions are actually exposed versus merely caught in the contagion, and is honest that he covered his software shorts too early to benefit. He's not making a blanket bet that the market is wrong about AI; he's doing company-by-company analysis of actual exposure.
Overall assessment: These are fundamentally different products serving different purposes. Discovery is a high-conviction, high-octane vehicle that will produce spectacular returns in favourable environments and painful drawdowns when things go wrong — the kind of fund where manager skill (or luck) in stock selection is everything. Salt is built for compounding with capital preservation, and the 11-year track record suggests genuine, repeatable skill in generating returns from both sides of the book with remarkable consistency.
If I were evaluating the quality of the managers purely based on their written communication — the depth of analysis, intellectual honesty, willingness to engage with complexity, and transparency about what went wrong — Goodson's Salt report is in a different league. It reads like someone who thinks deeply about markets and respects his investors enough to share that thinking in full. The Discovery letters read more like marketing that happens to contain a performance update.
If this carries on any longer, they may have to re-name it the "Flounders Fund"..... ;)
Thanks entrep. I think those A.I. posts hit the nail directly on the head. 10/10 A+ analysis of the situation.
Thanks for posting above Entrep. Very interesting reading. Discovery is a high risk wholesale fund. It is not for retail investors. While you can compare Salt and Discovery you are not comparing the same funds.
Discovery has a stock limit at 10 percent on cost. Salt is 15 percent and does not state if it's on cost or value. Discovery is high risk against salts (4) on a 1-7 scale. Salt is an Australasian fund as far as diversification goes and Discovery so far are mainly all Australian stocks.
Discovery from April 2025 had 6 months of positive gains with May up over 12 percent alone. From October 2025 we have had 5 months of negative returns and March is currently down nearly 5 percent. On a purely statistical basis April onwards should be fantastic.
Discovery in three years and five months since it's inception, the founders fund annualised performance is 31.4% versus the index of 15.9%. Salts performance over three years is 16.7% per annum return.
Managed funds is a long term game and anyone that has a short term horizon in my opinion should not be investing in them. I will be reviewing Discovery at the end of the year, like I do with all my investments and make a call then. In the meantime I can only hope that Chris and Mark make more right decisions than wrong.
FMA is concerned about what transpires behind the cloak of "wholesale investor" category.
https://www.fma.govt.nz/library/articles/tackling-misleading-disclosure/
$250,000 is not that much these days. I think many sins by various fund managers are hidden under the cloak of being a wholesale fund.
QuoteOutlook
Our mission is outstanding performance. We have a long track record of delivering just that.
I think that's somewhat disingenuous.
If you look at their long term performance since they were fund managers at PIE funds, (I posted my analysis a while back in this thread) for about 8 years where they averaged about 11-12% during a long bull market. That was only average performance over that timeframe, at best. Average that 8 years with just over 3 years with ~ 30% and you get a good 11 year average performance, certainly not outstanding, not by my reckoning anyway.
Fact is they did well in the first two years when fresh inflows meant they could pump up their own stocks with $300m of fresh capital and collected vast amounts of extremely lucrative 20% performance fees, (the highest level of performance fees in the investment industry by a long way), none of which they are repaying now investors are left being monkey hammered with a staggering 58.6% underperformance over the last year. Underperformance since they closed the fund and have been unable to pump up their own stocks has been extraordinary. There's your clue as to why their first two years were so good. Fresh inflows...which they no longer have, probably quite the opposite.
We are part way through a tech rout where performance is reverting to the mean is how I see it and I am very pleased indeed with my decision to get out of this fund at the end of November 2025, saving my capital from a very serious level of destruction since then. I certainly wouldn't reinvest if they opened it again. These guys have no technical analysis skills in my opinion. Who knows how reckless they are with the size of positions they hold as they grow from a claimed maximum of 10% at cost....nobody ever gets an audit report or a set of financial statements....yeah its a wholesale fund so they hide everything under that cloak of concealment.
As I noted previously, the issue now for remaining Discovery investors is the level of redemption requests they will be getting. 58.6% underperformance for the last year is right off the charts. Frankly I have never seen anything like that before and I doubt anyone else has either. In my opinion is quite likely they will now be many investors getting out to lock in previous gains and that rush of selling could easily exacerbate the trend downward, just like the original rush of buying created upward momentum. Just as well most investors I spoke with at the annual get-together in December 2024 seemed pretty well diversified and only had a moderate part of their capital in Discovery. Good luck to Discovery investors. I hope for your sake I am wrong.
Quote from: Basil on Mar 07, 2026, 10:26 AMFMA is concerned about what transpires behind the cloak of "wholesale investor" category.
https://www.fma.govt.nz/library/articles/tackling-misleading-disclosure/
$250,000 is not that much these days. I think many sins by various fund managers are hidden under the cloak of being a wholesale fund.I think that's somewhat disingenuous.
If you look at their long term performance since they were fund managers at PIE funds, (I posted my analysis a while back in this thread) for about 8 years where they averaged about 11-12% during a long bull market. That was only average performance over that timeframe, at best. Average that 8 years with just over 3 years with ~ 30% and you get a good 11 year average performance, certainly not outstanding, not by my reckoning anyway.
Fact is they did well in the first two years when fresh inflows meant they could pump up their own stocks with $300m of fresh capital and collected vast amounts of extremely lucrative 20% performance fees, (the highest level of performance fees in the investment industry by a long way), none of which they are repaying now investors are left being monkey hammered with a staggering 58.6% underperformance over the last year. Underperformance since they closed the fund and have been unable to pump up their own stocks has been extraordinary. There's your clue as to why their first two years were so good. Fresh inflows...which they no longer have, probably quite the opposite.
We are part way through a tech rout where performance is reverting to the mean is how I see it and I am very pleased indeed with my decision to get out of this fund at the end of November 2025, saving my capital from a very serious level of destruction since then. I certainly wouldn't reinvest if they opened it again. These guys have no technical analysis skills in my opinion. Who knows how reckless they are with the size of positions they hold as they grow from a claimed maximum of 10% at cost....nobody ever gets an audit report or a set of financial statements....yeah its a wholesale fund so they hide everything under that cloak of concealment.
As I noted previously, the issue now for remaining Discovery investors is the level of redemption requests they will be getting. 58.6% underperformance for the last year is right off the charts. Frankly I have never seen anything like that before and I doubt anyone else has either. In my opinion is quite likely they will now be many investors getting out to lock in previous gains and that rush of selling could easily exacerbate the trend downward, just like the original rush of buying created upward momentum. Just as well most investors I spoke with at the annual get-together in December 2024 seemed pretty well diversified and only had a moderate part of their capital in Discovery. Good luck to Discovery investors. I hope for your sake I am wrong.
Good post Basil, You make some interesting points. Would be good to know how many are bailing. During the Covid period I was told that Pie funds did not have huge redemptions and I doubt Discovery have either for the diversification reasons you mention. Also I suspect that a lot of the Discovery redemptions are from investors that really shouldn't have been in this wholesale fund in the first place.
I suspect they will open up the fund to existing investors first or perhaps a new fund.
Only time will tell how this ends. Hopefully we will have a turn around soon 🙏.
As far as Pie funds go, I have been talking with another investor who made the comment that Pie Funds are now running all their investment decisions through AI as another check. Since they have done that their share pics have improved, they say.
I note to-date the one year returns are as follows.
Emerging 42 %
Growth. 25 %
Growth 2 7%
Dividend 6 %
Quote from: Stoploss on Mar 06, 2026, 07:54 AMSounds like they are backing the truck up . That didn't work last month.
Markets and cycles change , things go out of favour and you have to go with the times.
Time will tell on this one , but it is been poor money management for the last 12 months being -58.6 % to the relevant index.
Hopefully they have learnt something from this rout and have a strategy to get more money off the table
at times, then sit on the sideline and wait for the right market conditions to evolve to re enter the market.
Backing the truck up isn't working down 10.5 % for the month so far as at 18/03.
Sometimes you have to Cut,reassess,sit back and watch .....Doesn't seem to be a risk management strategy here which is disappointing .
Quote from: Stoploss on Mar 19, 2026, 01:13 PMBacking the truck up isn't working down 10.5 % for the month so far as at 18/03.
Sometimes you have to Cut,reassess,sit back and watch .....Doesn't seem to be a risk management strategy here which is disappointing .
Yes down over 13 percent so far...
How do funds with such large holdings dispose of shares without affecting the market further.
Quote from: 777 on Mar 22, 2026, 04:26 PMHow do funds with such large holdings dispose of shares without affecting the market further.
That's the issue. With a staggering 58% underperformance in the last year, further significant losses this month and the current extremely toxic geopolitical situation, no matter what Chris and Mark might say, they will be getting a lot of redemption requests which force the fund to sell down positions, thereby further exacerbating losses.
A bit of a shocker from Discovery this morning. 6 months is down 39.4%.
https://discoveryfunds.co.nz/assets/Newsletters/Discovery-March-2026.pdf
I don't get it. Their language is still exactly the same, and you could argue that today's very brief memo actually has the least substance of any of their recent newsletters from the over the last several months.
AI says:
Discovery: The fund compounded at ~50% p.a. for its first three years, which is genuinely impressive. But from the September 2025 peak (262% total return) to March 2026 (119%), roughly half the cumulative gains were given back in six months. The trailing one-year return is now -11.9% and the two-year annualised is just 2.2%.
What's striking is reading the newsletters in sequence. Every single month from October onward follows the same template: acknowledge the underperformance briefly, blame external factors (resource rotation, AI fears, Middle East), reaffirm the process, promise next month will be better. In December they said February reporting would drive a re-rating. In January they said the same. In February they blamed AI disruption and Middle East events. Each month the language barely changes while the losses compound.
The March letter finally admits to an actual process error — the portfolio was overly correlated across rate-sensitive growth sectors and they failed to adapt when the RBA shifted to hikes. Fair enough. But the "enhanced process" they reference is completely empty. No detail on what's changed, no new risk limits, no concrete framework — just the words "enhanced process" and an assertion that they know how to pick stocks, written at a moment when the fund is down nearly 12% over twelve months.
The fact sheet still says "Rigorous Risk Management" on page two. Correlation analysis for a concentrated 20-stock portfolio should have been there from day one.
Quote from: BlackPeter on Dec 04, 2024, 05:09 PMMmh - I guess sometimes one can recognize an investment problem just by scanning small number of posts.
Always good to read the fine print of investment opportunities: "Past performance is no indicator for future performance" ... and - Oops - they don't even provide the paperwork required to sell legally to retail investors. I'd see this as a big red flag.
If they achieve above market returns, than clearly the only way to do this is by accepting higher risks. Great if it worked for them over the last couple of years, but surely - this does not mean it will stay this way forever.
If you have a lucky streak in the casino - do you assume that it will continue forever? Well, maybe you do. Many people do ... and often they find out too late that they did err.
Clearly not a fund I would invest material parts of our nest egg into ...
Post from December 2024. At that stage plenty of people thought that this is a really good investment opportunity. Times change.
Anyway - Good luck for holders ...
Discovery Fund is down 35.5% in the four months since I redeemed my investment at the end of November 2025.
31.1% of that decline was due to stock selection and only 4.4% the index itself declining.
Mind blowing underperformance over the last 2 years, the worst of it just in recent months.
What an extremely wild rollercoaster its been. Agree 100% that better risk management protocols should have been in place from the very beginning including proper protocols to manage the size of individual positions as their share prices gained significant upward traction.
Quote from: BlackPeter on Apr 02, 2026, 10:39 AMPost from December 2024. At that stage plenty of people thought that this is a really good investment opportunity. Times change.
Anyway - Good luck for holders ...
I think the problem is some people who invested in Discovery never should have in the first place. It's a long term game for wholesale investors only. No one I'm sure is happy with the performance over the last 6 months including me. One can only hope that the next six months will be better.
Quote from: Basil on Apr 05, 2026, 07:23 PMIts the 2 year performance of only 2.2% per annum, (9% per annum underperforming the index) that leaps off the page to me and is likely to be concerning some of the remaining investors in the fund. It shows that beyond their initial best idea's when they founded the fund, they've been unable to sustain the initial strong performance and unwilling to recycle profits and redeploy capital into more value accretive opportunities, possibly because they simply ran out of idea's ?
Yes it's a big concern given the rapid deterioration. However It's always easier looking back in hindsight.
The problem is that the market does not currently agree with Discovery's assessment of fair value. Yes it's been horrible watching these conviction stocks take a battering every month over the last six with no real noticeable change in strategy. I guess i'm one of the lucky ones as I'm still up as I have been in the fund a longer time. Certainly feel for holders that are seeing their original investment being eaten up. No one likes watching seed capital disappear.
The under performance of the fund started in August 24 when they underperformed the index by 2.6 percent. The top 3 stocks according to their August report were
1. Generation Development Group
2. Life360
3. Superloop
If we compare from the March report the top 3 stocks are
1. Generation Development Group
2. Imdex
3. Zip Co
As you can see Generation Development is still number one, which suggests to me that they have been topping up along the way. As far as life 360 and others it might be that they are still in the portfolio but with a much lower weighting given the huge depreciation in the SP. It appears that Chris and Mark don't have sell out limits or if they do they are not following it with some or all of their picks.
We have had 6 months of positive returns and now we have just completed 6 months of negative returns. I can only hope that we start to see a turn around hopefully starting April.
When the market turns "AND IT WILL SAYS HISTORY" we could be once again looking at exceptional returns. We certainly saw the bounce after the Covid correction. In my opinion now is not the time to bail, but agree if we keep seeing these losses patience will be tested by even the most loyal believer.
Both Mark and Chris claim to have most of their liguid net worth invested in the fund, so they are feeling the pain financially just like the rest of us. They also have their reputation at stake as I know a lot of people are watching with interest, including other fund managers. One can only hope that they learn from their mistakes.
Only time will tell how this plays out. Hopefully I have made a good decision too review at the end of the year. We will soon see.
Timely piece in todays paper
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/rotorua-daily-post/business/iran-conflict-and-stocks-should-long-term-investors-sell-now/premium/3AXWSHUP2JCXHPJP6HYRQDJVGI/
Some huge moves up in Discovery portfolio stocks this afternoon. Hope the bottom is in for you mate and there's a decent recovery as hopefully this two week ceasefire leads to a more permanent peace in the Middle East.
Quote from: Basil on Apr 08, 2026, 04:45 PMSome huge moves up in Discovery portfolio stocks this afternoon. Hope the bottom is in for you mate and there's a decent recovery as hopefully this two week ceasefire leads to a more permanent peace in the Middle East.
What stocks are those ??
GDG up more than 10%, 360 up 12%
Quote from: Basil on Apr 08, 2026, 08:55 PMGDG up more than 10%, 360 up 12%
Yes about time. Zip up over 19 percent which is number 3 on last update.
Fund up 7 percent month to date. Great to finally see some green. Then again looks like it's turning to custard again. A Clayton's bounce.
Salt Funds long short March - always a good read
https://d5f445d7-7cf2-43b2-b808-08b9a95f3ecf.filesusr.com/ugd/7d7e3c_3ed151fc3c6f4fbeba84b9ad53a7e82c.pdf
Crickey, vast majority of PIE's funds got smashed in March. 11-13% down is common and a bitter pill to swallow. Some of their funds now have a pretty miserable performance on a 5 year basis too.
Even their Chairman's fund, which is an amalgam of many of their other funds was down 9.1% for the month and only showing a 5 year average of 4.7% but PIE take 1.8% per annum and leave investors with just 4.7%. Hmmm.
Yeah I'm very glad I got out of the AU dividend appreciation fund before the carnage really occurred. Although some of that went into nz listed property which hasn't done well either!
Its been very hard to find places to hide in 2026. I reckon the vast majority of investors portfolios are underwater to a greater or lesser extent, year to date.
My strategy has been to use Aussie ETF's and wear the FIF tax. A mix of GOLD, OOO, FUEL, BCOM, MNRS, SNAS, XMET, MVR, EPTPTM, EMKT, plus the likes of ILB, AGVT, VIF in the bond space are making up about 20% of investments. Along with some allocation to property and infrastructure through a few PIE funds and direct shares, the result has been to kill most of the volatility in the portfolio. We just don't have the options in niche asset-classes in NZ PIE-structured funds, at least not at a reasonable cost or accessible to retail. Not averse to being diversified in core-currency either for now.
I've also been ruthless on any direct shares that I think could be crippled on costs and margins in this environment in favour of extra cash for the short-term.
Overall, the result for the year is pretty close to break-even or slightly up so far, although I guess there will still be tax to pay next year, either way. Not a recommendation, but I do think Aussie ETF's are worth considering for variety of assets.
Welcome back Lizard' its been a while. Well done to you and anyone else at close to break even year to date. That's a big win in the circumstances.
DMX funds have a few sad stories to tell of late
https://mcusercontent.com/1a84be027051b31062de96622/files/cd396748-eb64-f29d-22fe-ceabc533862d/DMXASF_March_2026_Investor_Update.pdf
Quote from: Basil on Apr 13, 2026, 02:17 PMIts been very hard to find places to hide in 2026. I reckon the vast majority of investors portfolios are underwater to a greater or lesser extent, year to date.
Actually - my war time portfolio is doing not too bad this year: food & stuff people always need, including (admittedly) some defence industry.
The issue I have with so called defense stocks is the fact that FAR too often what they manufacture is used for offensive reasons. How many wars has the US started in the last 60 years including Vietnam ? I've lost count... I'm no fan of ESG per se, but the thought of investing in stocks like Raytheon and Northrop Grumman to name just two, makes me feel deeply uncomfortable.