https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/129292182/used-car-sales-have-plunged-and-prices-are-following
Hopefully they didn't stock up too much inventory otherwise might be some write-downs inbound?
"Turners launches employee share scheme" :)
showing some class right there
Quote from: blackie on Aug 12, 2022, 05:15 PM"Turners launches employee share scheme" :)
showing some class right there
Broadly I'm not a big fan of employee share schemes. I don't mind too much at exec level as a reward for delivering on superior performance.
But for general workers - its "no"
Sales people should be incentivized with low based pay and decent bonus structure based on completed sales.
Back office staff should get sufficiently rewarded by their wages, the compulsory kiwisaver, the increased sick leave and public holidays and the occasional ham at Christmas. And from this they can choose to invest in shares or spend up on holidays. Whatever they choose.
Any extra money going to back office staff is money not going to shareholders. Lets staff get rewards from the company by buying shares in the company and get dividends like everyone else.
Quote from: NZInvestor on Aug 12, 2022, 06:23 PMBroadly I'm not a big fan of employee share schemes. I don't mind too much at exec level as a reward for delivering on superior performance.
But for general workers - its "no"
Sales people should be incentivized with low based pay and decent bonus structure based on completed sales.
Back office staff should get sufficiently rewarded by their wages, the compulsory kiwisaver, the increased sick leave and public holidays and the occasional ham at chr***mas. And from this they can choose to invest in shares or spend up on holidays. Whatever they choose.
Any extra money going to back office staff is money not going to shareholders. Lets staff get rewards from the company by buying shares in the company and get dividends like everyone else.
Tend to agree with you NZInvestor - little evidence to show for the general staff 'hey I own shares so I'm going to work hard'
They might the warm fuzzies at the start but that will wear off pretty quick ...though some will spend time on the mobile checking the share price every few minutes .... and if the share price goes down?
working really hard
Easy to dismiss this sort of thing as trivial and not really motivational but for some people the ability to get $1,500 of shares for only $1,000 and you can pay it off interest free, its a pretty big deal. I know its chump change to almost everyone on here but to others, just like wearing the lovely bright blue Turners polo shirts it fosters a feeling of pride and engagement and being part of the Turners team.
Quote from: NZInvestor on Aug 12, 2022, 06:23 PMBroadly I'm not a big fan of employee share schemes. I don't mind too much at exec level as a reward for delivering on superior performance.
But for general workers - its "no"
Sales people should be incentivized with low based pay and decent bonus structure based on completed sales.
Back office staff should get sufficiently rewarded by their wages, the compulsory kiwisaver, the increased sick leave and public holidays and the occasional ham at chr***mas. And from this they can choose to invest in shares or spend up on holidays. Whatever they choose.
Any extra money going to back office staff is money not going to shareholders. Lets staff get rewards from the company by buying shares in the company and get dividends like everyone else.
you sound a bit like one of the landed gentry out of Downton Abbey. I guess I relate more to the downstairs staff.
toss me a ham a christmas... ma lord ;)
Quote from: Basil on Aug 12, 2022, 06:42 PMEasy to dismiss this sort of thing as trivial and not really motivational but for some people the ability to get $1,500 of shares for only $1,000 and you can pay it off interest free, its a pretty big deal. I know its chump change to almost everyone on here but to others, just like wearing the lovely bright blue Turners polo shirts it fosters a feeling of pride and engagement and being part of the Turners team.
back in the day having a job was good motivation
Quote from: NZInvestor on Aug 12, 2022, 06:23 PMBroadly I'm not a big fan of employee share schemes. I don't mind too much at exec level as a reward for delivering on superior performance.
But for general workers - its "no"
Sales people should be incentivized with low based pay and decent bonus structure based on completed sales.
Back office staff should get sufficiently rewarded by their wages, the compulsory kiwisaver, the increased sick leave and public holidays and the occasional ham at Christmas. And from this they can choose to invest in shares or spend up on holidays. Whatever they choose.
Any extra money going to back office staff is money not going to shareholders. Lets staff get rewards from the company by buying shares in the company and get dividends like everyone else.
Wow what a terrible attitude, even for a shareholder. I agree with blackie !
Quote from: Capt_Hook on Aug 12, 2022, 07:54 PMWow what a terrible attitude, even for a shareholder. I agree with blackie !
if you want to own shares in a company that pays paper pushers more than the going rate at the expense of shareholders fill your boots. I prefer to reward the net revenue generators.
Quote from: blackie on Aug 12, 2022, 07:00 PMyou sound a bit like one of the landed gentry out of Downton Abbey. I guess I relate more to the downstairs staff.
toss me a ham a christmas... ma lord ;)
for the sake of clarity im a bit more progressive than rewarding chimney sweeps with a bowl of gruel. But start giving them caviar and there won't be much left over for the owner of the broom.
Quote from: NZInvestor on Aug 12, 2022, 08:45 PMif you want to own shares in a company that pays paper pushers more than the going rate at the expense of shareholders fill your boots. I prefer to reward the net revenue generators.
Sack all the paper pushers and see how far the sales team get without any systems backup.
The experience I've had in places where the workers are invested (even in a minor way) shows it's a cheap way to improve morale, which goes a long way in improving the basic business metrics.
Less 'slacking', less 'sick days', better 'customer service'.
Quote from: PastorOfMuppets on Aug 12, 2022, 09:25 PMThe experience I've had in places where the workers are invested (even in a minor way) shows it's a cheap way to improve morale, which goes a long way in improving the basic business metrics.
Less 'slacking', less 'sick days', better 'customer service'.
You're on to it !
I'm all for rewarding those with unique and valuable skills. But if your back office functions are so complex you need "specially rewarded" people then that's a problem.
Quote from: NZInvestor on Aug 12, 2022, 08:49 PMfor the sake of clarity im a bit more progressive than rewarding chimney sweeps with a bowl of gruel. But start giving them caviar and there won't be much left over for the owner of the broom.
"Turners has partnered with online investment platform Sharesies to launch an employee share scheme. The scheme provides the opportunity for permanent (part-time and full-time) employees of the business to invest $1,000 and receive $1,500 worth of shares at the completion of a 3 year vesting period. In order to encourage broad participation the company is also offering a three year interest free loan to acquire the shares to all staff."
hardly "caviar" but delighted by the clarity and banter
Quote from: PastorOfMuppets on Aug 12, 2022, 09:25 PMSack all the paper pushers and see how far the sales team get without any systems backup.
The experience I've had in places where the workers are invested (even in a minor way) shows it's a cheap way to improve morale, which goes a long way in improving the basic business metrics.
Less 'slacking', less 'sick days', better 'customer service'.
you don't want to be giving the back office folk ideas beyond their station.
It's a symbiotic relationship. Each role in a business cannot function without the others. Yes it mostly starts with sales, but it actually ends with the cash and there are a LOT of bits in between. Try getting sales when your Sales staff are not being paid, or have to waste time grumbling about their pay and getting it corrected. Or you can get your expense claim reimbursed in the month after next when the major client pays. Background things don't happen by magic. It could be the lowest paid employee who can actually wreck your business - and in any area, whether that be your sales team, logistics, warehouse, customer service, your receptionist, management, admin....anyone. So better if everyone is motivated.
Quote from: blackie on Aug 12, 2022, 10:09 PM"Turners has partnered with online investment platform Sharesies to launch an employee share scheme. The scheme provides the opportunity for permanent (part-time and full-time) employees of the business to invest $1,000 and receive $1,500 worth of shares at the completion of a 3 year vesting period. In order to encourage broad participation the company is also offering a three year interest free loan to acquire the shares to all staff."
hardly "caviar" but delighted by the clarity and banter
If they are paying for those shares then its much better than the schemes where they get them for free, so they have no real impact (people do not value things they do not pay for). I know that having free Telstra shares did not do anything to make me a better employee. If I'd had to cough up for them I'd probably be more "invested" lol
On another note, if anyone from Turner's is reading this, I want to say how much I love Tina from Turners ;D
I love Tina too !!
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/397074/376670.pdf
Turners continue to build a solid and resilient business. Good to see despite challenges with Omricon Q1 performance in FY23 is in line with last year.
I think that positions them well for FY23 as they lap last years Q2 and Q3 periods which were heavily affected by the (very difficult to navigate), 107 day Auckland region-wide lockdown last year.
$50m NPBT target for FY25. Negotiations under way for more branches.
Jarden released a comprehensive report on 3 August and rates Turners "Overweight" with a price target of $4.27.
I think they will be very pleased to see arrears holding at very low levels and Turners making a solid and resilient start with Q1 performance.
Disc: Happy holder.
So besides having about $19m difference between market and book value they also seem to be sitting on a 'material Covid-19 arrears provision buffer' to allow for uncertain times. If I heard right it's not cash per se but potential future profits
Quote from: winner (n) on Aug 17, 2022, 12:46 PMSo besides having about $19m difference between market and book value they also seem to be sitting on a 'material Covid-19 arrears provision buffer' to allow for uncertain times. If I heard right it's not cash per se but potential future profits
Doggy likes there sort of semi secret reserves. Bit like having a secret stash of bones in case there's a rainy day and you get hungry.
Congrats to the Turners team http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/398917/379152.pdf
Quote from: Basil on Sep 16, 2022, 11:22 AMCongrats to the Turners team http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/398917/379152.pdf
Commercials and other marketing material; a necessary evil for many. Bit love it or hate it, this one is sticky and effective.
Quote from: Onemootpoint on Sep 16, 2022, 02:59 PMCommercials and other marketing material; a necessary evil for many. Bit love it or hate it, this one is sticky and effective.
Its very good, not only in that people like it, but that they remember it, and more importantly they remember who it is advertising. Often times an ad might be great, but no one can remember who the advertiser was - case in point, the ad with the keas picking a car apart, great ad, but no one could remember what it was advertising (insurance) or who the insurer was.
I had a small hand in the Tina marketing. Picked it early that she was a very effective personality in a similar way to how Tammy has been such a roaring success for Briscoes. Had a quiet word to Todd Hunter some time back and strongly encouraged him to lock Tina into a long term contract.
I think she's got personality plus !!!
Quote from: Basil on Sep 16, 2022, 03:33 PMI had a small hand in the Tina marketing. Picked it early that she was a very effective personality in a similar way to how Tammy has been such a roaring success for Briscoes. Had a quiet word to Todd Hunter some time back and strongly encouraged him to lock Tina into a long term contract.
I think she's got personality plus !!!
I had to Google to see what this was referring to. Where are these ads being shown and who exactly is the target audience?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aAiGi7vzYuY
One of those 'positive' announcements to give you warm fuzzies now but to temper any expectations of profit increases like last year .... so when npbt comes in essentially no growth (modest that is) it won't be a surprise .... pretty clever eh
Could say a 'veiled' profit downgrade? But then again some guru analysts weren't expecting any profit growth in F23 anyway.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/401078/381796.pdf
Strong growth in market share is positive.
Quote from: lorraina on Oct 25, 2022, 12:47 PMStrong growth in market share is positive.
Absolutely.
Though still trying to align this horror market scenario for 2023 everybody is talking about with positive results for TRA. Loan default rate on vehicle loans is already rising - and for sure won't get better with a rampant inflation combined with the promised recession.
Amazing what different people can read into the same statement.
To the best of my knowledge this is slightly ahead of analysts' expectations and is a business that's showing great resiliency in these challenging times.
I'd prefer to simply call it what it is, a good solid market update. I think it's all too easy to forget that earlier this year we had more than 20,000 cases of Covid a day and that was enough to keep a lot of people away from doing any shopping in person.
My spreadsheet shows EPS growth last 5 years 9.0% pa - and average PE over that time 11
Forecast EPS growth next 3 years 4.1% pa
Share price currently about right .... maybe
Seems it's only the dividend that's supporting the share price (and it seems that won't be keeping up with inflation)
Maybe we could invent something called the 'the option value of the Turners dividend' to justify holding
If they can pay 24 cps this year fully imputed (24 / 0.72 = 33.33 cps gross), that's 9.5% gross yield on $3.50 plus more growth to come when we climb out the other side of the looming potential recession. I'm very happy indeed to be paid so well to enjoy future growth as well as such a fantastic yield.
Don't need to create any fancy optionality around that, it's a compelling hold in my opinion.
Had to leave the lounge tonight
Wife was watching One News (or had the telly on) and that TINA has come on twice ... lots of screaming, Truly awful ....and then cars tooting just too much
Awful
Award winning advertising is not always because its super pleasant or funny, its because its creative and effective. I love Tina and want to give her a big hug 8)
You have to admire how marketing people love marketing people ......self praise and all that
Winners are grinners says Todd ...and I don't think he was referring to me lol
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/todd-hunter-b313194_winners-are-grinners-turners-and-tina-scooped-activity-6976116352256237568-inOD/?originalSubdomain=nz
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GC5E8ie2pdM
I'm expecting a "thoroughbred" performance in the years ahead.
Bet you will find it hard not to punt on any horse called Tina or Turners next time you see a horse named like that at the races ;)
Quote from: Basil on Nov 15, 2022, 08:24 PMhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GC5E8ie2pdM
I'm expecting a "thoroughbred" performance in the years ahead.
Bet you will find it hard not to punt on any horse called Tina or Turners next time you see a horse named like that at the races ;)
There's one called TINA AGAIN running around at the moment ...pretty useless
I suppose its a couple of million well spent
But I hope the finance guy is doing his job properly and asking the marketing guys 'show me the return on that 'investment'' .... marketing people always say such spend is an 'investment' but invariably never know an 'investment' in what except for a bit of glitz and glamour
From F22 financials - the finance guy might ask why has advertising gone up $1.8m on pcp and npbt up $5.4m ..... seems advertising costs increasing at a much higher rate than sales and profits ..... but its all about building a stronger future eh
Maybe more colour around this when they print half year next week --- no doubt TINA will get many mentions
I think the acid test for whether marketing spend really is an investment is defined by whether you're really growing your market share and Turners are certainly doing very well in that regard ! I think its money well spent and definitely is an investment. Certainly, if you look how Tammy has helped build Rod Duke's empire over the decades there's real value in getting someone with a real sparkle to their personality that people can identify with and sticking with them over the long run. That's exactly why I encouraged Todd to get Tina locked into a long term contract.
Quote from: Basil on Nov 16, 2022, 09:27 AMI think the acid test for whether marketing spend really is an investment is defined by whether you're really growing your market share and Turners are certainly doing very well in that regard ! I think its money well spent and definitely is an investment. Certainly, if you look how Tammy has helped build Rod Duke's empire over the decades there's real value in getting someone with a real sparkle to their personality that people can identify with and sticking with them over the long run. That's exactly why I encouraged Todd to get Tina locked into a long term contract.
You deserve a medal for encouraging Todd to do that
Turners for yeas have been raving about gaining market share and I was always surprised when it always seemed to be about 5% and over the years didn't seem to show much in the way of the touted gains
It seems that even in early 2021 it was just over 5%
But since TINA has arrived it seems that market share went up to 7.3% in April this year .... and the way Todd is talking it could even be close to 10% when they print their half year year numbers next week.
Wow - we have to put it down to TINA don't we ..... I was wrong, it's money well spent. TINA is wonderful and the marketing team have done a stupendous job over the last year
Chart from Turners preso
0000turnersshare.JPG
I think realistically it will take a few years to get up to 10% market share but I'm feeling confident they're on the right track. Tina an excellent fit with Turners customer demographic in the same way Tammy is with Briscoes demography in my opinion. Relatable, relentless positivity!
Hey Basil - market share already 9% as at July ....and 'growing strongly'
They updated that chart at the ASM
WOW ...GO TINA
0000turnersshare.JPG
WOW...thanks mate, it's been a while since I read that presentation....that's VERY impressive !
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/397074/376670.pdf
Roadmap to $50m NPBT .... in FY25
From $43.1m in F22
Not much of a promise is it --- a miserable 5% pa growth ..... when words are heaps more positive than that
But then the first six months of that 3 year road isn't that flash - marginal growth
Yeah... from memory in the last call they explained there was some pressure on the NIM in the lending book with funding rates being floating and all previous loans made being fixed and as interest rates have jumped dramatically in the last year NIM was 100-150 basis points compressed from memory. If I recall correctly this is an approx 12-18 month issue and NIM should be restored after that. Suppose they will get tailwinds from the reverse of this in due course as we come out the other side of this higher interest rate cycle.
Given motor vehicle finance was their biggest divisional earner for FY22 their most recent outlook statement was more than satisfactory. Like the ol Mainland cheese advertisement jingle says "Good things take time"
I loved that slide of a couple of years ago
Roadmap to $5/share ...
,,,,,by 2024
Was a slide from middle of 2021 so not long ago - be good if we get to $5 by then - I think mentioned that it would be on a undemanding PE
But if you keep changing the targets punters might forget what the previous ones were eh
$5 by 2024...I'm pretty confident Tina and Todd will get us there mate. When they do you have to promise me you'll fly up for the Annual meeting and if we're really lucky, (apart from the usual lukewarm sausage rolls), we might get a hug from Tina 👍
OMG ...I've had to change stations on the radio now.
That woman screaming her head off at 6.38am is just too much ...and then again 10 minutes later
Remembered why I left the RNZ National a while ago ....it sucks ...does she pop up on Rhema?
Another solution maybe is listening to these things called podcasts
Are they ad free and TINA free?
If so any recommendations
Quote from: winner (n) on Nov 17, 2022, 08:02 AMOMG ...I've had to change stations on the radio now.
That woman screaming her head off at 6.38am is just too much ...and then again 10 minutes later
Remembered why I left the RNZ National a while ago ....it sucks ...does she pop up on Rhema?
I can happily confirm that RNZ is still Tina free. Maybe you should return? I guess really, who wants to waste their time with listening to ads anyway?
Much better though (for international affairs) is the Deutsche Welle, just book a Duolingo course and listen in ...
Strength and Resilience despite the headwinds. Solid result.
Note 3 new branches planned for FY24.
Just a brief explanation on the finance side of things.
Their funding is floating but previous lending has all been fixed for the life of the loan so as interest rates go up as they have a lot in the last 12 months their margin on loans previously made at fixed rates declines. I expect this to flow though into FY24 a bit too but to wash through by FY25.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/402756/383897.pdf
Metrics look sound to me. 9% gross yield on yesterday's closing price.
If they can do 38 cps this year up from 36.4 cps last year the shares are on a forward PE of 355 / 38 = only 9.3
With clear plans for growth in the years ahead they look like a good hold to me.
I expect used cars to be far more resilient than new cars in tougher economic conditions and I expect they will keep gaining market share up towards 10% in the foreseeable future.
Please read and learn BP - Page 24 is a must read for you.
A used car salesman always good at spinning a good story
This is an uninspiring result but if you rave on about resilience, challenges blah blah and all that sort of crap it is a fantastic result eh .... often happens that purchasers get sucked in by used car salespeople and Todd has done that here. Well done Todd
Last year they used a 'normalised' NPBT to say good they were - this was $24.5m and this year they are reporting $23.4m - that's 4% less/down in my books ..... and thats even after a 11% increase in revenues
Pretty uninspiring and somewhat disappointing to me
Fair enough mate I respect your point of view. For my money and in their defense, they made it crystal clear in the call for their annual result in May 2022 that headwinds regarding floating funding costs existed in the finance book (which is all fixed rate lending). We've had a dramatic increase in interest rates this period compared to the PCP so comparing results when funding costs for the receivables book were about 3% lower last year was always going to be a challenge.
If you normalise the result for that there would have been very nice profit growth in the lending division.
Keep in mind that this mis-match between floating funding and fixed price lending creates a tailwind when interest rates fall again.
Given this headwind this period and other obvious headwinds around Omricon in the first quarter, inflation and cost of living pressure on consumers I think its a solid and resilient result and I'm happy to hold.
They have plans for 3 more branches next year. I'm happy with the (at $3.50), 9.1% gross yield, the low PE, marketing, market share growth and management and think their growth plans are soundly based. I'm on the bid for more at $3.50. Multi award winning marketing with Tina gives me a lot of confidence they can build on market share gains going forward.
Quote from: winner (n) on Nov 22, 2022, 03:05 PMA used car salesman always good at spinning a good story......
......This is an uninspiring result .. and somewhat disappointing to me
The market seems to agree with you Winner.
Much better investments out there IMHO.
Quote from: Left Field on Nov 22, 2022, 05:41 PMThe market seems to agree with you Winner.
Much better investments out there IMHO.
How so ? Share price closed up 4 cents at $3.58 (1.1%), on a day the market was down 0.2%. Not that many companies on the NZX with genuine growth prospects on a PE of 9 with a gross yield of 9%. I managed to get a very small top up of several thousand more at the low price of the day, $3.50. Happy with that. I am happy to invest with companies with good yield that are executing well with the current headwinds in the knowledge that those headwinds will abate in due course.
Got chatting with a good friend yesterday about how you successfully build a brand.
Its strange how people identify with a person or a dog or something else and it really build the brand strongly over time.
Who remembers the old Spot the Telecom dog advertisements and how successfully Telecom built their business using that star dog ?
Everyone will already be aware of how Rod Duke has built his fortune off the back of the super positive and vivacious Tammy starring in Briscoes advertisements.
We are on to a real winner with "Tina". Judges in the marketing awards said "WE LOVE TINA"
I am very hopeful that Tina will be our golden lady and build the Turners brand strongly in the years ahead. In the meantime the gross yield of 9% is very rewarding.
Disc: Happy holder.
"Hounded" up some more this morning, couldn't help myself because I love Tina and I am sure she's the secret sauce to ensure the growth momentum continues in the years ahead.
https://www.autocar.co.nz/turners-auto-retail-optimises-auckland-network/
Topped up a few more at $3.35, makes sense for future dividend Retirement shortly in next few years those regular dividends quarterly to help us along the way.
Welcome to the forum Beau. I'm in much the same position as you, looking to retire a few years from now and I have been investing with the primary goal of growing reliable dividend income to ensure a comfortable retirement.
Mr B is not allowed to retire from investing and prehaps there will be a need to hire a hall and bring him in for speaking engagements and presentation along with W...
the B & W show ....
Quote from: Waltzing on Dec 17, 2022, 10:16 AMMr B is not allowed to retire from investing and prehaps there will be a need to hire a hall and bring him in for speaking engagements and presentation along with W...
the B & W show ....
Minstrels
TRA share price heading back to where it was 2 years ago
Hope it doesn't go sub 3 bucks
Maybe they need to get Tina out and about screaming BUY TRA SHARES ....but that might put prospective punters off
Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 30, 2022, 11:33 AMTRA share price heading back to where it was 2 years ago
Hope it doesn't go sub 3 bucks
Maybe they need to get Tina out and about screaming BUY TRA SHARES ....but that might put prospective punters off
Why? I find them more tempting when they are cheaper :) ;
Forecasting profit at or slightly above last year and 23 cps fully imputed dividends. (23/0.72) = 31.94 cps gross.
If it goes down to $3.19 that would be a gross yield of 10% paid quarterly.
Presently trades cum the Q2 dividend of 5 cps fully imputed, so netting that off your purchase price as its paid soon, at $3.24 that's 10% gross yield.
Like her or not Tina represents multi award winning marketing. I am sure KW will give me a telling off for holding in a downtrend, but quarterly income of that magnitude is very helpful when it comes to enjoying one's very expensive nautical indulgence.
It's a good long term business Basil but it's clearly in downtrend.
Not sure where the bottom is but with interest rates going up and 5 to 5.5% for cash in the bank it depends where you sit. I've mitigated inflation as much as I can and it's really only food inflation mainly for me so I'm sitting on my hands watching all these high div stocks getting re rated as interest rates go up and will deploy cash once we see some certainty on peak interest rates.
plenty of time to buy in on this one in my opinion.
Last few years TINA..there is no alternatives
This year LISA ..Looking interesting some alternatives....
Quote from: Basil on Dec 30, 2022, 11:53 AMForecasting profit at or slightly above last year and 23 cps fully imputed dividends. (23/0.72) = 31.94 cps gross.
If it goes down to $3.19 that would be a gross yield of 10% paid quarterly.
Presently trades cum the Q2 dividend of 5 cps fully imputed, so netting that off your purchase price as its paid soon, at $3.24 that's 10% gross yield.
Like her or not Tina represents multi award winning marketing. I am sure KW will give me a telling off for holding in a downtrend, but quarterly income of that magnitude is very helpful when it comes to enjoying one's very expensive nautical indulgence.
Interesting - how do you see the used car market developing in 2023? I would have thought that Mr. Orrs recession might reduce both revenue (less buyers looking for cheaper cars) and margins (tougher competition) ... and these pesky interest rates might well increase the number of debts turning bad.
Not everybody (particularly the typical TRA customer) can save money by just going a bit easier on buying diesel for these fishing trips ...
You optimistic for TRA? Is it really just the Warehouse and OCA who are going to suffer in the coming recession?
Quote from: Perky on Dec 30, 2022, 12:18 PMIt's a good long term business Basil but it's clearly in downtrend.
Not sure where the bottom is but with interest rates going up and 5 to 5.5% for cash in the bank it depends where you sit. I've mitigated inflation as much as I can and it's really only food inflation mainly for me so I'm sitting on my hands watching all these high div stocks getting re rated as interest rates go up and will deploy cash once we see some certainty on peak interest rates.
plenty of time to buy in on this one in my opinion.
Last few years TINA..there is no alternatives
This year LISA ..Looking interesting some alternatives....
Can't argue with that mate but I am focused on that highlighted part.
Already have ~ 30% portfolio allocation to cash and short-term deposits going into 2023, that's enough.
I'm investing for retirement income on what's sustainable going forward on a "look through" the 2023 recession basis. No argument it's in a downtrend and could get cheaper and I have plenty of dry power to take advantage of such outstanding opportunities to increase income further in 2023 as they present themselves.
BP, management have a forecast in the market for FY23 and are open, honest and transparent about the headwinds apparent.
I have confidence in TRA's management and their growth strategy and believe they are building an excellent business with brilliant marketing that will stand the test of time and perform in a satisfactory manner in challenging times such that shareholders are well rewarded with a very high level of fully imputed dividend income (paid quarterly), and perform very well indeed in less challenging times such that shareholders will also enjoy share price gains.
Might be as well a classical dividend trap.
Last time (during the COVID hype in March 2020) they bottomed out below $1.20.
Lots of room to drop.
I agree, its a well run company - but I think my OCA $'s are currently still safer than your TRA $'s :) ;
Anyway - it is just money, isn't it?
Quote from: Basil on Dec 30, 2022, 11:53 AM"..........................
Like her or not Tina represents multi award winning marketing. I am sure KW will give me a telling off for holding in a downtrend, but quarterly income of that magnitude is very helpful when it comes to enjoying one's very expensive nautical indulgence.
Marketing awards ...... just an indulgence for advertising / marketing agencies to pat themselves on the back and say aren't we great and haven't we served our clients well.
Remember when Synlait won an award ... the Best Growth Strategy in the Deloitte Top 200 awards. They were award winners too and no doubt management enjoyed the champagne at the big night out
Think awards arevwonderful at your peril
A2 and Ryman were other finalists
Quote from: Basil on Dec 30, 2022, 11:53 AMForecasting profit at or slightly above last year and 23 cps fully imputed dividends. (23/0.72) = 31.94 cps gross.
If it goes down to $3.19 that would be a gross yield of 10% paid quarterly.
Presently trades cum the Q2 dividend of 5 cps fully imputed, so netting that off your purchase price as its paid soon, at $3.24 that's 10% gross yield.
Like her or not Tina represents multi award winning marketing. I am sure KW will give me a telling off for holding in a downtrend, but quarterly income of that magnitude is very helpful when it comes to enjoying one's very expensive nautical indulgence.
Fair enough.
What did you buy?
Backed a horse TINA AGAIN over Christmas - paid $6 so happy
She raced again today and bolted in - paid less than 2 bucks today
TINA AGAIN going great -- commentator said she's in foal and off to have her baby soon.
Hopefully our TINA is in 'foal' as well and she'll disappear as well .... wishful thinking on my part
Hey mate, do you think there might be a small chance, (even if our lovely Tina is currently pregnant), they screen the same multi award winning advertisements again :P
Quote from: Basil on Jan 13, 2023, 03:18 PMHey mate, do you think there might be a small chance, (even if our lovely Tina is currently pregnant), they screen the same multi award winning advertisements again :P
Unfortunately YES .......and they can it often as they can afford to.
Wonder if Aaron has asked the hard question to Todd /Greg "what's the RÓI on this investment in TINA .....and winning awards isn't a tangible return"
They've made it crystal clear they're very happy with their investment in brand building with Tina.
That's great eh mate as it means you can look forward to heaps more of her amazing Radio and T.V. advertisements. I know you secretly love them ;D
Quote from: Basil on Jan 13, 2023, 03:53 PMThey've made it crystal clear they're very happy with their investment in brand building with Tina.
That's great eh mate as it means you can look forward to heaps more of her amazing Radio and T.V. advertisements. I know you secretly love them ;D
Like politicians / councils raving about economic benefits of spending zillions on events / new trains etc etc
Economic impact reports one of the big rorts of this world
Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 13, 2023, 06:17 PMLike politicians / councils raving about economic benefits of spending zillions on events / new trains etc etc
Economic impact reports one of the big rorts of this world
Turners have made it clear they believe Tina is a very valuable and integral part in them building market share. With the greatest of respect mate I think they've made that point quite emphatically.
I think you're drawing a very long bow comparing their marketing with Government and local body initiatives. I have some professional training with marketing, took an optional paper on it at Uni, and I understand very well the value of brand building using a bright and bubbly personality like Tammy for Briscoes or Tina with Turners. Consistency of approach with the same personality is the key so the public identify with and link the brand with the bubbly personality.
I recall the CEO saying that almost everyone who rings up to sell a car asks to speak to Tina.
I think that speaks for itself mate, don't you?
I always liked the quote from advertising guru David Ogilvy. "I know half my advertising spend is wasted.....trouble is I don't know which half."
Maybe the issue is Tina...likes cars, big ones, small ones, noisy ones
Whereas
Winner..likes returns, big ones (capital appreciation), small ones (dividends)
noisy ones (takeovers)
With Turners share price currently retreating Probably more chance of a big return at the races winner than at Turners...you seem to have a good eye for them...Where's Nest Egg running next? Surely a roughie place chance after its close run 4th on New Year's Day. Nest Eggs Mum is Run to the Bank...could be a sign?
Arnt second hand car values in the US dropping 15%...
So Tina is being handsomely rewarded no matter what the business result whereas Winner and other shareholders are not?
Selling more but making less?...Like the Whs.
Maybe this is a trend to watch in next company reporting season..good top line sales but much higher operating costs, lower margins less profit.
The roadmap to a $5 share valuations seemed to have hit a pothole.
I like Turners long term. Good management, growing market share, good inputed div, diversified but aligned income streams...clipping the tickets on cars, loan finance, insurance, property owner/developer
Discl. Don't currently hold but could buy some if an attractive entry price shows in next few months
Well done those who bought in around Covid lows ..under $2 was great buying.
Quote from: Waltzing on Jan 14, 2023, 12:25 PMArnt second hand car values in the US dropping 15%...
That's the NZ trend too - post Covid.
When they said at the half year announcement 'Based on our experience in the first half and early trading in H2 we expect FY23 NPBT to be at or slightly above last year's record result.' I took it as a profit downgrade
Market must have thought so as well as it did nothing to arrest the strong downtrend that started a year ago - $4.60 to $3.20 is a big drop
Just imagine what will happen to the share price if they did the unthinkable and cut the dividend
cut DIV ...
whoops
Still inflation seen slowing and US earning season coming up...
Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 14, 2023, 03:02 PMWhen they said at the half year announcement 'Based on our experience in the first half and early trading in H2 we expect FY23 NPBT to be at or slightly above last year's record result.' I took it as a profit downgrade
Market must have thought so as well as it did nothing to arrest the strong downtrend that started a year ago - $4.60 to $3.20 is a big drop
Just imagine what will happen to the share price if they did the unthinkable and cut the dividend
That would bring out a big orange Detour ahead sign. Roadmap to under $3
I think you scary everyone to buy some more?
What about those insider fellas buying recently at prices 20% north of todays. Also no decks been built recently. What do they know or see?
Turners just being rerated like all risk assets.
Interest rates going up next month and I think inflation in nz will be very very sticky..hard to get rid of. Like tar on the nz road in summer.
Now you can leave your money in the bank and get 5.5% (more next month) no capital loss and get paid to wait patiently until you think market is finished re rating
Or you hold turners and risk some more short term capital loss but get a nice divvy maybe?
Turners be alright long term just hit some headwinds and soft tar on the road to $5.
I hope to buy some Turners later this year ...waiting to see where interest rates peak
Headwinds in FY23 have been pretty strong. Falling used vehicle prices means reduced margins and rising interest rates means lower finance book margins as loans previously issued at fixed interest rates are partially funded by floating loan facilities the cost of which has escalated at a record rate in FY23.
It hasn't been much fun holding in a downtrend, in fact its been very painful.
I think they're doing incredibly well in the face of such strong headwinds to be forecasting to match or slightly exceed last years record profit.
Forecasted dividends for FY23 are 23 cps fully imputed so that's 23 / 0.72 = 31.94 cps gross so at $3.19 TRA trade on a prospective gross yield of 10%.
I am going to continue to hold and trust management to steer the Turners ship safely through the potential recession that lies ahead. There's always sunshine after rain (one of my late Mum's favorite sayings) and once we've navigated the challenges immediately apparent, they will be well positioned to continue their eps growth in the years ahead. In the meantime there's that 10% gross yield, paid quarterly, to cheer shareholders up. I am betting that based on around a 65-70% payout ratio, 23 cps is sustainable going forward. There's no way I am going to sell a well managed company with a very sound growth strategy that feeds me 2.5% gross per quarter. Dividend hounds love their regular feeds.
Disc: Holding a modest stake for income. Looking forward to a very nice divvy on 26 January.
The real deal TINA was used by Chrysler in acclaimed award winning marketing campaigns in 1990's to drive sales of Plymouth branded models ..... Voyager etc
Seems they weren't that successful as Plymouth brand appears to have slowly died and met its demise about 2000.
Hope our TINA ensures the longevity of Turners.
Plenty of TINA Plymouth ads on YouTube and this is an interesting article by an auto commentator.
https://automobible.com/tina-turner-plymouth/
Tina explains that most people who test drive a Plymouth Sundance decide to buy one. ,,So if you're not serious about a new car, you better stay away from this one."
A Plymouth Exec explained the rationale for using TINA - "There's no better way for a car company to show off it's great new body styles than having one of the finest bodies in show business as it's spokesperson, singer Tina Turner."
Sorry to digress about bring the real deal TINA in on the discussion só back to today things
It seems Ebbett we're going to expand into the South Island and put a huge car yard in Nelson but canned those plans a month or so ago citing the 'economic climate' for changingbtheir minds
But the real reason was TINA scared them off
No need to apologise mate, I found it quite interesting. Didn't know the real deal Tina was involved with advertising cars. The link you provided seems like quite a reserved way to advertise a car. I like New Zealand Tina's more rambunctious style even if it grinds some other people's gears a bit.
The interesting thing with the funding of Turners finance book is while this has provided strong headwinds at present with significant net interest margin compression as floating rates have roared up, Turners are now pricing their vehicle finance at a much higher level to account for much higher funding costs so when interest rates decline there will be a decent tailwind to earnings in their finance book. Maybe interest rates start their decline later this year?
Quote from: Basil on Dec 30, 2022, 11:53 AMI am sure KW will give me a telling off for holding in a downtrend ...
I can retire now, as Chat GPT can do my job for me ;D
screenshot-chat.openai.com-2023.01.15-13_13_48.png
That AÍ pretty clever eh KW
I might ask it 'is investing in a company that sell cars that has acclaimed and award winning marketing a good investment?'
But then again I have a feeling it's wise to stay clear of things like ChatGPT
This is an interesting article (and a bit of a worry)
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00056-7
Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 15, 2023, 01:55 PMThat AÍ pretty clever eh KW
Its super clever, and most definitely about to lead us into a new future of tech innovation. Think of the ramifications for call centres now that AI can respond like a real person.
Also it appears a PR/IR career is now dead in the water LOL. Good news for all our serial apologists on the stock market.
https://twitter.com/Cam49609198/status/1614166751402680320?t=cQiNM1v5xx64gkFmpZ4BzA&s=31
Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 15, 2023, 01:55 PMThat AÍ pretty clever eh KW
I might ask it 'is investing in a company that sell cars that has acclaimed and award winning marketing a good investment?'
But then again I have a feeling it's wise to stay clear of things like ChatGPT
This is an interesting article (and a bit of a worry)
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00056-7
check out Midjourney or Dalle2...mindblowing. Got a free trial and did my 20 free images with midjourney - amazing and a lot of fun.
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/artificial-intelligence-art-wins-colorado-state-fair-180980703/
https://www.midjourney.com/showcase/top/
a new frontier w/ all this AI stuff.
The only surprise is it took this long to get told off by KW...I knew it was coming lol
In my defense, I am investing for retirement income and the age old cliche "don't bite the hand that feeds you" springs readily to mind. With a payout ratio of under 70%, (which could be tweaked to maintain the dividend if absolutely necessary), and with Turners coping with the prevailing headwinds really well I thought I would take the opportunity to post below a full list of other stocks on the NZX paying you a 10% gross yield on a quarterly basis.
.
.
.
Oh my goodness to the best of my knowledge there are none. Could the share price keep declining? Yes. Do I think they can sustain the current dividend across the business cycle? Yes
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/402756/383897.pdf
I think other dividend hounds might like to refresh themselves with this presentation from the first half results.
In terms of dividend sustainability, I think the following is worthwhile noting.
Despite all well known headwinds that Turners freely acknowledge in this presentation they have guidance in the market that net profit will be at or slightly above last year's record which amounted to 36.4 cps.
Their dividend policy is to pay out 60-70% of after tax profit.
Last year's payout of 23 cps, (also forecasted from FY23) represented a payout ratio towards the bottom end of that range at only 63%.
I think the 10% gross yield is pretty safe.
Its also worth noting they have only declared 10 cps so far this year so the second half is highly likely to include fully imputed quarterly dividends of 6 cps and 7 cps as was the case last year.
"ChatGPT"
imagine public companies created FA reports in PDF with the object tags they should have been using for a while now.
MS is or might be going to it in search but as one FA on CNBC said the scope for its use long term is HUGE.
FA reports could be fed to an AI engine but only if they construct the reports using smart reporting engines.
Sorry to post this on this thread...
But the future of this new platform is HUGE....
It should be spun off and onto a Ticker already but sadly its not ...
It is also very very heavy of engery ....
But back to cars...and this straneg company that MR P pointed out owned its own sites?
Gosh ... Thanks for MR B and his fast arithmetics..
You could get some STU Basil to give your dividend stocks more Steel? 8)
It pays you more ...only twice a year though..less chances for you to spend it on toys
Lots of infrastructure spend coming up as NZ try's to catch up on under investment...in everything...
Maybe except govt reports.
Off topic
Page 37 with the five year history of dividends for STU makes for a sober read
https://steelandtube.co.nz/sites/default/files/report/Steel%20%26%20Tube%20FY22%20Annual%20Report3.pdf
Just as well the next 5 years are going to be much better...or maybe as soon as they hit headwinds again they stop paying dividends or reduce them to some pathetic level again like in 2018, 2019 or 2021?
Holders are no doubt hoping STU goes back to the glory days of 2013 to 2017 when they paid a minimum of 15 cps each year, see page 22 https://steelandtube.co.nz/sites/default/files/report/S%26T_Annual_Report_2017.pdf
I reckon residential construction is going to tank later this year and take commercial down with it. No matter how you slice and dice it I reckon the construction game is cyclical and not conducive to highly dependable and reliable dividend income.
TRA is a consumer cyclical company?
Which part of the cycle are Turners customers heading into?
Turners customers had access to cheap money last 10 yrs but that is ended for now. Wind has changed from warm northerly to cold southerly
STU...to the moon. What it loses in residential rev. it will grow infrastructure and manufacturing
Govt spending $60 Billion on infrastructure next 4 years. New hospital, schools, northland dry docks, Auckland port move, central interceptor,new harbour crossing, light rail, heavy rail, CRL, stormwater, wastewater upgrades
Climate change will hurt TRA...Climate change will strengthen STU...a lifetime ahead of fixing what mother natures delivers.
Govt is specialist at spending your tax money when economy needs a boost.
Lots of steel needed. Not many cars or finance required by govt.
I will buy Turners one day..when i buy it probably lower price and smaller dividend than now...but I'll take my chances on STU for a while yet
Looking forward to the next STU report 15 February
Turners finance NIM very high .....That's good
And insurance float helps finance new sites ...that's pretty good too.
Quote from: Basil on Jan 15, 2023, 03:34 PMThe only surprise is it took this long to get told off by KW...I knew it was coming lol
In my defense, I am investing for retirement income and the age old cliche "don't bite the hand that feeds you" springs readily to mind. With a payout ratio of under 70%, (which could be tweaked to maintain the dividend if absolutely necessary), and with Turners coping with the prevailing headwinds really well I thought I would take the opportunity to post below a full list of other stocks on the NZX paying you a 10% gross yield on a quarterly basis.
.
.
.
Oh my goodness to the best of my knowledge there are none. Could the share price keep declining? Yes. Do I think they can sustain the current dividend across the business cycle? Yes
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/402756/383897.pdf
I think other dividend hounds might like to refresh themselves with this presentation from the first half results.
In terms of dividend sustainability, I think the following is worthwhile noting.
Despite all well known headwinds that Turners freely acknowledge in this presentation they have guidance in the market that net profit will be at or slightly above last year's record which amounted to 36.4 cps.
Their dividend policy is to pay out 60-70% of after tax profit.
Last year's payout of 23 cps, (also forecasted from FY23) represented a payout ratio towards the bottom end of that range at only 63%.
I think the 10% gross yield is pretty safe.
Its also worth noting they have only declared 10 cps so far this year so the second half is highly likely to include fully imputed quarterly dividends of 6 cps and 7 cps as was the case last year.
Well played Basil getting TRA cheap enough to get those yields.
No doubt those who bought for the 7% gross yield in mid 400s a year ago (at that time TINA was an investing strategy) are still pretty contented with their lot ...quarterly divies and all that.
They'll get their capital back one day
Getting to the stage where TRA is a buy again .....10% divie and decent future capital gains
Qualifies as DOG OF THE NZX stock with current yield
Thanks Winner. I feel I am getting to know the company fairly well. Historically the main segment they are in, (modestly priced used cars) has held up well in tougher economic times.
10% yield and the modest dividend payout ratio that could easily be tweaked a bit if necessary to maintain the dividend, along with good management with a clear plan for growth over time, gives me comfort to hold for income. Happy to trust management to chart a steady course through the choppy seas directly ahead. It'll be fine, smooth sailing conditions again in due course. For what it's worth I agree it's getting close to a buy as opposed to a hold but I can also understand people not wanting to buy in a downtrend. I feel the worst in terms of share price declines is behind us but doubling down, (for twice the dividend income), if it did go down to say $2.50 has quite a bit of appeal too so I am not overly concerned either way.
By the way, you are right my friend. It doesn't pay to revalue your portfolio too often, probably not at all in recent times lol
TRA now trading at just over Book Value
In current environment that seems about right
For interest sake here's how TRA P/B ratio has tracked over the years
Just shows approaching 5 bucks in 2021 was totally ludicrous ...but 3 bucks now is more rationale
0000trapb.JPG
Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 16, 2023, 11:47 AMJust shows approaching 5 bucks in 2021 was totally ludicrous ...but 3 bucks now is more rationale
Everything in 2021 was completely ludicrous. Personally, I am wiping all of 2020 and 2021 from my trend analysis and going back to 2018-2019 trends to see where stocks "should" be. In TRA's case, most of 2018-19 was spent in a downtrend to $2.15-$2.20 before picking up in late 2019 (as the old bull market entered its late stage runup).
Most of us on this particular forum have been around the stock market a long, long time, so we should all remember that back in normal times most of the stocks on the NZX paid 7-10% dividends, mostly because they were low growth. Investing in the NZX has always been mostly a dividend play, as even the "growth" stocks were mostly trash, and anything decent rapidly decamped to the ASX or got taken over.
In regards to future profits, I read an interesting twitter thread regarding used car sales, the crux of which is that people cant buy new [used] cars because the value of the trade in will not come close to covering paying back the financing on the old car which was bought during the pandemic when used car prices were ludicrously priced. So what dealers are doing is ignoring standard industry practice of not selling a car on finance to someone who already has a car on finance, figuring that the customer will simply default on the old car and not the new one. Dog eat dog world, let the debt defaults fall on someone else. But basic principle applies here - what happens if people cannot do what Tina says to do - bring your old car in and walk out with another?
Good observations there KW
One thing that's an issue for TRA is that EPS growth is rather inconsistent over the years
Since 2015 its been like this
2016 -14%
2017 -4%
2018 17%
2019 -5%
2020 -6%
2021 28%
2022 16%
A few red years eh ..... but through the ups and downs EPS has grown from 28.6 cents in 2015 to 36.3 cents in 2022 (CAGR 3.5% pa)
Perky - maybe a bit like STU performance
(Think my numbers are correct)
Quotewhat happens if people cannot do what Tina says to do - bring your old car in and walk out with another?
I think management are wide awake to the current challenges and have clearly acknowledged them in their 22 November half year presentation. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/402756/383897.pdf
Holders might like to reflect on what they had to say on pages 5, reflect on the dividend history at page 15 and the company outlook for FY23 in pages 36-38.
Always a good sign that management are open and transparent when both the CEO and CFO but their email and phone numbers on a presentation, (page 39).
I think we all know there are some fairly choppy seas to navigate for the rest of FY23 and those conditions are likely to persist in FY24. I'm confident management are fully abreast of all the challenges that lie ahead and note that despite these, they have a forecast in the market for FY23 being at or slightly ahead of last years record profit.
In terms of the dividend the payout ratio being only 63% last year and well inside their stated range of 60-70%, I note earnings could fall by as much as 10% and they could still pay the same dividend however it would be at the top end of the range.
Looking through this pending recession I think Turners are well placed to continue to grow market share, profitability and dividends.
Yes guilty as charged winner on STU earnings. They certainly aren't a poster child for consitency...Last few years going the right way.
Both TRA and STU probably a traders dream..buy low, ride the wave..sell high...collect the nice divvy along the way. ...then get out....rinse and repeat...shame I'm not that clever.
Ultimately to me it comes down to going into a recession or likely period where consumers have cost of living inflation and higher interest rates and less money...do you want to be selling a lump of steel (used cars) or just the steel.
Don't remind Basil that fuel taxes about the come back on and local and central govt want consumers out of their cars
Turners haven't had a share buy back for a while
Mustn't be thinking the shares are 'undervalued' at the moment
Share price holding above 3 bucks
Baker et al said ad nauseam 3 to 4 years ago it's intrinsic value was way over 3 bucks.
Nothing seems to have changed
Quote from: Basil on Jan 15, 2023, 03:34 PMThe only surprise is it took this long to get told off by KW...I knew it was coming lol
In my defense, I am investing for retirement income and the age old cliche "don't bite the hand that feeds you" springs readily to mind. With a payout ratio of under 70%, (which could be tweaked to maintain the dividend if absolutely necessary), and with Turners coping with the prevailing headwinds really well I thought I would take the opportunity to post below a full list of other stocks on the NZX paying you a 10% gross yield on a quarterly basis.
What if I told you you could get similar, a 6.5% dividend yield on a payout ratio of 69% but the chart looks like this? The stock market is a game of risk vs reward and it helps if you have an uptrend to act as a tailwind 8)
ADH.png
Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 16, 2023, 03:47 PMShare price holding above 3 bucks
Baker et al said ad nauseam 3 to 4 years ago it's intrinsic value was way over 3 bucks.
Nothing seems to have changed
Earnings and dividends have increased nicely since then.
Some guy once said "be greedy when others are fearful". I believe you know who some guy is 8)
Worth chatting about some more in due course KW.
Quote from: Basil on Jan 16, 2023, 04:32 PMEarnings and dividends have increased nicely since then.
Some guy once said "be greedy when others are fearful". I believe you know who some guy is 8)
Worth chatting about some more in due course KW.
Also from my pictured company "As a Board we are very aware that our share price has been disappointing and sits below its IPO price despite the group recording 7 years of consistent sales growth and with earnings per share twice that of the company at IPO."
You can be greedy, but timing is still everything ;D
Quote from: KW on Jan 16, 2023, 04:08 PMWhat if I told you you could get similar, a 6.5% dividend yield on a payout ratio of 69% but the chart looks like this? The stock market is a game of risk vs reward and it helps if you have an uptrend to act as a tailwind 8)
ADH.png
old adairs eh
Well, yes - Chat AI is great! Here are its reasons why you should buy in a downtrend:
Why buying in a downtrend.JPG
Nick Cave a bit grumpy about this ChatGPT thing
https://www.theguardian.com/music/2023/jan/17/this-song-sucks-nick-cave-responds-to-chatgpt-song-written-in-style-of-nick-caveAnd f
Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 17, 2023, 07:25 PMNick Cave a bit grumpy about this ChatGPT thing
https://www.theguardian.com/music/2023/jan/17/this-song-sucks-nick-cave-responds-to-chatgpt-song-written-in-style-of-nick-caveAnd f
Fair enough too. The "song" did suck.
A bit more buyer depth finally coming back in! If u are thinking about it, nows a good time top up??..
Quote from: Ricky Bobby on Jan 19, 2023, 02:34 PMA bit more buyer depth finally coming back in! If u are thinking about it, nows a good time top up??..
Only you can decide that Ricky. Maybe go back right to the start of this thread and read every post and read the recent presentation the company made, link provided in post #104
Turners do a good job with their market statistics.....
See them here; https://www.turners.co.nz/globalassets/terms-and-conditions/market-report-cars---december-2022.pdf
A few headwinds in this market it would seem.
Quote from: Left Field on Jan 20, 2023, 02:49 PMTurners do a good job with their market statistics.....
See them here; https://www.turners.co.nz/globalassets/terms-and-conditions/market-report-cars---december-2022.pdf
A few headwinds in this market it would seem.
ee they didn't includr the share price chart lol .... would have looked out of place
Quote from: Left Field on Jan 20, 2023, 02:49 PMTurners do a good job with their market statistics.....
See them here; https://www.turners.co.nz/globalassets/terms-and-conditions/market-report-cars---december-2022.pdf
A few headwinds in this market it would seem.
If you want to receive each month Raymond.chan@turners.co.nz will put you on the distribution
Turners - NZ's most trusted used vehicle dealership
Can't help wondering how many people will need to replace their cars due to flood damage?
I had to drive through 3 decent depth rivers to get home on Friday night and thankfully seem to have dodged a bullet. Mrs B however was off elsewhere and also drove through a different river and now her ECU is throwing out multiple system error codes and gearbox isn't working.
Have to wait until Friday 10th just to have Honda take a look at it, they're run off their feet with other cars needing flood damage repairs...
I suspect Turners will do well out of the floods.
Not sure about insurance, both she and I decided to drive through different rivers running over different streets...not really an accident per se is it...only difference is I got away with it and she didn't..
Today for the first time I drove through our local neighbourhood streets that were badly flooded. Endless piles of sodden carpet, bedding, mattresses, furniture etc all piled out on the street front. A terrible sight. What really surprised me though was all the smashed up cars. Massive panel damage, windows all smashed in. I guess they started to float and the force of water bashed them into each other, lamp posts, etc. Astonishing. So yes, I think a lot of car replacement.
Sorry to hear Basil. Agree Turners should do well and get their fair share. At fishing comp was amazed at the guys fully drenching their 4 wheel drives off the beach. Surprise surprise all company vehicles with logos.
Hope it all works out mate.
From a second hand car dealer in the North Shore, Auckland :
There will be a surge in second hand car sales when insurance claims are processed so dealers will try to make hay while the sun shines (so to speak). Number of cars impacted around 5% of imported volumes. Used car sales have been dropping and there's an opportunity to clear built up used car stock and for new car dealers to get rid of unpopular models (eg.petrol & diesel Nissan, Hyundai & KIA). Heyday of inflated margins enjoyed in 2020 and 2021 well and truly over. Waiting list still long for popular new car models like Toyota and BMW.
You mean even TINA wont be able to whip the trend back up?
Interesting to know the most popular models and average age ect.
Quote from: Teitei on Feb 02, 2023, 08:04 AMFrom a second hand car dealer in the North Shore, Auckland :
There will be a surge in second hand car sales when insurance claims are processed so dealers will try to make hay while the sun shines (so to speak). Number of cars impacted around 5% of imported volumes. Used car sales have been dropping and there's an opportunity to clear built up used car stock and for new car dealers to get rid of unpopular models (eg.petrol & diesel Nissan, Hyundai & KIA). Heyday of inflated margins enjoyed in 2020 and 2021 well and truly over. Waiting list still long for popular new car models like Toyota and BMW.
Not a credible source. Love my Kona!
Quote from: Minimoke on Feb 02, 2023, 09:23 AMNot a credible source. Love my Kona!
I pass on the information from what I consider to be a reliable source (dealer is son of a close personal friend) in good faith.
Information to be shared and to each their own!
Take it or leave it, does not bother me - I am neither long nor short TRA. On my watchlist.
PS. Hyundai build great cars and I am sure your Kona is fantastic. Hyundai NZ made the mistake of overstocking on diesel and petrol cars in 2022 when the demand is for electric & hybrid cars. Hence, the sale of Hyundai diesel and petrol cars currently - heaps of deals to be had.
Quote from: Teitei on Feb 02, 2023, 09:47 AMI pass on the information from what I consider to be a reliable source (dealer is son of a close personal friend) in good faith.
Information to be shared and to each their own!
Take it or leave it, does not bother me - I am neither long nor short TRA. On my watchlist.
PS. Hyundai build great cars and I am sure your Kona is fantastic. Hyundai NZ made the mistake of overstocking on diesel and petrol cars in 2022 when the demand is for electric & hybrid cars. Hence, the sale of Hyundai diesel and petrol cars currently - heaps of deals to be had.
My post was a bit tongue in cheek. But it does raise theissue of sources.
The first part of your sources infoamrtion ("There will be a surge in second hand car sales") is patetnly obvious to any one with a bit of a clue.
I can't verify his "Number of cars impacted around 5% of imported volumes" but wil try to find out.
As for this "new car dealers to get rid of unpopular models (eg.petrol & diesel Nissan, Hyundai & KIA). " lets look at the data.
New registrations year to date 2023
Ford (because I think we can agree this is a "popular" brand = 361 registrations (no Rangers but loads of Everest)
Hyundai = 612 (I30's pipped Kona)
Kia = 1513 (stonics flying out the door)
Nissan = 1215 x trail beating Leafs.
And there we have it the models flying out the door.....
the jetsons...
Elon needs a new jig as all his other ones are not really catching the publics imagination this year unless he lands of mars and takes over the planet.....
The next version of T car is the F car.... a flying T car....
Saw somebody ask somewhere if Turners insurance segment going to take a hit because of floods
Quote from: Minimoke on Feb 02, 2023, 10:25 AMAs for this "new car dealers to get rid of unpopular models (eg.petrol & diesel Nissan, Hyundai & KIA). " lets look at the data.
New registrations year to date 2023
Ford (because I think we can agree this is a "popular" brand = 361 registrations (no Rangers but loads of Everest)
Hyundai = 612 (I30's pipped Kona)
Kia = 1513 (stonics flying out the door)
Nissan = 1215 x trail beating Leafs.
If you go to Trademe Motors, you will see large numbers of Hyundai & KIA late model cars (2022) being heavily discounted to get rid of stock. In contrast, you do not see the same with say, Toyota where their used late model RAV4s are selling above new car prices!
That being the case, it is not surprising that they are putting through numbers so far in 2023. Discounting does that to sales?
As for the 5% of imported car volumes, I must assume that good car dealers keep a close eye on such numbers and situations as they spell sale opportunities. I have not checked the numbers but be great if you do.
Appreciate your input.
Quote from: Teitei on Feb 02, 2023, 10:53 AMIf you go to Trademe Motors, you will see large numbers of Hyundai & KIA late model cars (2022) being heavily discounted to get rid of stock. In contrast, you do not see the same with say, Toyota where their used late model RAV4s are selling above new car prices!
That being the case, it is not surprising that they are putting through numbers so far in 2023. Discounting does that to sales?
As for the 5% of imported car volumes, I must assume that good car dealers keep a close eye on such numbers and situations as they spell sale opportunities. I have not checked the numbers but be great if you do.
Appreciate your input.
I can't find the volume number. But I have found the value number. Which is for the year end March 2022 $6.1 billion
5% of that is $305,000,000.
If we assume an average assumed insured value of $25,000 written off then that's 12,200 cars to be sold.
How much of the market does Turners have. Say 5% - then we arrive at 610 cars to be sold.
AA are today reporting the, so far have 300 cars written off.
They also say damaged / written off cars go to Turners for Auction.
Quote from: Minimoke on Feb 02, 2023, 09:23 AMNot a credible source. Love my Kona!
I love my Hyundai Veloster!
With respect to driving cars that have been flooded, here are the Aussie experts lol
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-04/what-to-do-if-your-car-has-been-submerged-in-floodwater/100879772
And beware buying one
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/11/hurricane-ian-damaged-358000-vehicles-how-to-avoid-buying-one-of-them.html
And NZ does have rules around selling flood damaged cars
https://www.icnz.org.nz/industry/media-releases/icnz-welcomes-new-rules-on-water-damaged-cars/
Quote from: KW on Feb 02, 2023, 03:36 PMI love my Hyundai Veloster!
Mines a 1.6 turbo. Its been clocked at 220kph (not me!). With 18inch wheels and optional AWD it will get me pretty much anywhere I want to go. Hyundai certainly are jamming the features in nowadays.
Re. Media on flooded cars ..... and Stuff today:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/motoring/131125930/is-my-car-stuffed-what-to-do-if-your-car-has-been-flooded
Quote from: Onemootpoint on Feb 02, 2023, 06:43 PMRe. Media on flooded cars ..... and Stuff today:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/motoring/131125930/is-my-car-stuffed-what-to-do-if-your-car-has-been-flooded
Thanks for the article. I lodged a claim for Mrs B's car yesterday as the circumstances behind her driving through a huge foot deep pool of water were very different to my decision to drive through 3 rivers on Friday evening in my car. In her case it was an involuntary thing as she came around a tight corner and came upon a huge foot deep ponding of water before she could do anything to avoid it. As she described it to me there was no chance to avoid it or stop before hitting it and at about 50 k.p.h. she hit this huge pool of water and the car aquaplaned and water went everywhere with a high level of force. I think its a legitimate claim. If anything had of happened to my car, thankfully no electronic systems are spitting the dummy, (yet), it's going to have to be on me because I chose to fiord through those rivers. (Silly old dog I am, I should have known better).
All her cars electronic systems are going off and the transmission isn't working properly.
it's six years old and we were going to replace it last year anyway. Insured value is now down to only ~ $14,000.
I hope they write it off. Once electronic systems start giving trouble...that's a problem that usually has no end...
Anyway...I noticed something interesting in the press yesterday that Tower had about 500 motor vehicle claims lodged and had settled...wait for it and this is not a typo, 11. Today in response to my claim i got a standard we are snowed under....type email. Wonder how long Mrs B is going to be without her car?
The bleating has started already and I just "love" doing taxi duty for her....which got me thinking there could be record demand for Turners car subscription service while everyone tries to sort this diabolical mess out.
Huge numbers of claims being made https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/131139137/largest-insurer-expects-to-pay-383-million-in-flood-claims
Quote from: Basil on Feb 03, 2023, 12:01 PMThanks for the article. I lodged a claim for Mrs B's car yesterday as the circumstances behind her driving through a huge foot deep pool of water were very different to my decision to drive through 3 rivers on Friday evening in my car. In her case it was an involuntary thing as she came around a tight corner and came upon a huge foot deep ponding of water before she could do anything to avoid it. As she described it to me there was no chance to avoid it or stop before hitting it and at about 50 k.p.h. she hit this huge pool of water and the car aquaplaned and water went everywhere with a high level of force. I think its a legitimate claim. If anything had of happened to my car, thankfully no electronic systems are spitting the dummy, (yet), it's going to have to be on me because I chose to fiord through those rivers. (Silly old dog I am, I should have known better).
All her cars electronic systems are going off and the transmission isn't working properly.
it's six years old and we were going to replace it last year anyway. Insured value is now down to only ~ $14,000.
I hope they write it off. Once electronic systems start giving trouble...that's a problem that usually has no end...
Anyway...I noticed something interesting in the press yesterday that Tower had about 500 motor vehicle claims lodged and had settled...wait for it and this is not a typo, 11. Today in response to my claim i got a standard we are snowed under....type email. Wonder how long Mrs B is going to be without her car?
The bleating has started already and I just "love" doing taxi duty for her....which got me thinking there could be record demand for Turners car subscription service while everyone tries to sort this diabolical mess out.
Huge numbers of claims being made https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/131139137/largest-insurer-expects-to-pay-383-million-in-flood-claims
Took me over 10 years to settle my Christchurch claims. Hopefuly insurers in Auckland are faster (though to be fair it was the meddling of the useless govt agency EQC that messed things up. Private insurer side was very good - when they could be)
10 years...jeepers I am not going last 10 days without my ears bleeding at the current rate of loud bleating from she who should be much more understanding.
Quote from: Basil on Feb 03, 2023, 03:13 PM10 years...jeepers I am not going last 10 days without my ears bleeding at the current rate of loud bleating from she who should be much more understanding.
She who must be obeyed too? :P
Quote from: Teitei on Feb 03, 2023, 06:28 PMShe who must be obeyed too? :P
The old saying 'happy wife, happy life" springs readily to mind lol
Quote from: Basil on Feb 03, 2023, 03:13 PM10 years...jeepers I am not going last 10 days without my ears bleeding at the current rate of loud bleating from she who should be much more understanding.
I am dealing with the same issue with my partner Basil with her vehicle. I realised a top investment with great returns in peace of mind is a rental car for the Mrs.
Thanks Playa. It might come to that. A reluctant acceptance seems to have come upon Mrs Beagle and the howling has stopped for now, but we will see how long that lasts. Best wishes with getting your insurance company to play ball quickly.
I think if they write it off we might take a one month Turners car subscription while we sort out what she wants to replace it with.
Quote from: Basil on Feb 05, 2023, 10:26 AMThanks Playa. It might come to that. A reluctant acceptance seems to have come upon Mrs Beagle and the howling has stopped for now, but we will see how long that lasts. Best wishes with getting your insurance company to play ball quickly.
I think if they write it off we might take a one month Turners car subscription while we sort out what she wants to replace it with.
Hey Basil ....hope you putting the hard word on Todd and offering your services as an 'influencer' and trying this subscription thing out
Somebody with your 'influence' could do wonders in getting some real momentum in this part of the business ....and timely to.
BASIL'S LIFE MADE EASIER AFTER AUCKLAND FLOODS WITH A SUBSCRIPTION CAR
LOL...I'm not even on twitter, tiktok, fake-book or instagram... Pretty sure there's people, younger, cooler and with a MUCH bigger social media following that would have more influence.
Maybe Tina drove through a big pond of water and she's the one to push the car subscription service along :D
Quote from: Basil on Feb 05, 2023, 02:51 PMLOL...I'm not even on twitter, tiktok, fake-book or instagram... Pretty sure there's people, younger, cooler and with a MUCH bigger social media following that would have more influence.
Maybe Tina drove through a big pond of water and she's the one to push the car subscription service along :D
Tell Todd to do that as an Tina ad .....such creativity should give you a sub car
All about how to win with a car sub gig
No doubt Todd doing all this plus more
https://www.bcg.com/publications/2023/the-rise-of-the-car-subscription-market
FB latest today
Turners Automotive Group (TRA) is an integrated automotive and financial services company, providing Finance, Insurance and Credit Management solutions besides the main Automotive Retailing business. TRA has a leading position in the NZ used car market, leveraging (1) its brand, which is synonymous with used car sales, (2) its nationwide scale, and (3) its marketing and digital insights. Economic headwinds are likely to provide challenges for TRA's retail and finance businesses; however, TRA is well positioned with improved diversity and business quality relative to history. Continued market share gains from additional sites and a retail optimisation strategy are key growth opportunities. TRA is trading on a 9.8% gross yield, a ~10x one-year forward PE, representing +16% upside to our blended spot valuation of NZ$3.80.
Disc. Not a holder
Sp back to where it was 2 years ago.
Guess the windfall profits from inflation driven higher second hand car prices have dissipated like the morning mist?
My view is the synopsis shared by Shareguy above and valuation is very sound.
Disc: Moderate sized position.
Quote from: Basil on Feb 08, 2023, 09:44 AMMy view is the synopsis shared by Shareguy above and valuation is very sound.
Disc: Moderate sized position.
Couldn't agree more.
I just bought a car at Turners Wellington via auction.
It was a pleasure dealing with them!
Nothing sleazy about them.
I spent my last dividend on a cheap car lol.
TRA showing good gains in recent days. Now above MA50. It needed to get off the mat. At $3.45 now on a Yield 6.7% on PE ~9.5
Not too bad, but compare that to e.g. FBU (@$4.88) with a dividend yield of 8.6% and a PE of 8.9.
But I recon they will need both- FBU to fix the houses and infrastructure and TRA to replace the cars ...
Quote from: Whome on Feb 21, 2023, 11:02 AMTRA showing good gains in recent days. Now above MA50. It needed to get off the mat. At $3.45 now on a Yield 6.7% on PE ~9.5
You know you want back on "the bus" mate. That yield you mentioned is fully imputed so the gross yield is 9.26%. Lot of cars to be replaced with the extraordinary weather events. Mrs Hounds is hopefully one of them.
Basil, you mean back on a bus from Turners and doing a little dance with Tina at the thought of that juicy divi. Still have a smallish stake in TNR. No spare funds at present - mainly with a certain clothing company.
A warning to make informed decisions...
"Between 1 and 22 February, 524 vehicles were added to the register as write-offs with the water damage annotation."
https://www.interest.co.nz/business/120046/review-things-you-need-know-you-sign-thursday-only-minor-retail-rate-changes-today
https://www.nzta.govt.nz/vehicles/choosing-the-right-vehicle/recalls-and-damaged-vehicles/written-off-and-damaged-vehicles?start=24420
10,000 CARS!!!
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/131325980/more-than-10000-flooddamaged-cars-will-be-written-off-by-insurers
At least the media appear to be putting the word out to consumers on the issue:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/motoring/131351676/toyota-issues-warning-be-extra-careful-with-used-cars-after-floods
Interestingly TRA not feeling the love today. Down nearly 2% at the time of writing this. Perhaps the market (momentarily) considers the positive spin around NZA as stronger competition for TRA going forward. Not that it should.
Quote from: Waltzing on Feb 27, 2023, 08:10 AM10,000 CARS!!!
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/131325980/more-than-10000-flooddamaged-cars-will-be-written-off-by-insurers
10001 cars now...Mrs hounds car written off. Going to be a lot of insurance money chasing cars.
That more Cars than Tina can shout out in an ADvert...
Cars, Cars, Cars ..... doesnt cover it!!!!
Gosh some parts of the NZ look like sub continent flood plan...
ITS GOING TO BE A RECORD YEAR
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/407909/390200.pdf
Very encouraging trading update.
Taking into account the known headwinds regarding Omricon trading in the first quarter, serious cost of living pressures in the economy all year and especially significantly increased interest costs from funding previous fixed rate motor vehicle lending with floating rate debt, this is a highly credible result as we arguably scrape across the bottom of the economic cycle.
More encouragingly, I noted this snippet about how they expect margins to move in the future
Replacement demand for damaged cars, combined with the supply restrictions caused by the
Clean Car Standard is expected to be inflationary for used vehicle pricing and margins.
It's clear their branch expansion strategy is working very well indeed leading to increasing market share gains.
Quick look at the metrics of this company which in my opinion has now proven its capable of steady growth in the years ahead.
FY23 forecast (assumes if they have the confidence to say profit will be at least $44 before tax), $45m before tax = $32,4m after tax = eps of 37.4cps.
Current year PE $3.38 / 0.374 = 9
Gross yield 23 / 0.72 = 31.94 cps / 338 = 9.4%
I note last year they paid a Q3 dividend of 6 cps fully imputed with a record date of 7 April.
Credit where its due, they've come a long way with developing and refining their business and lending model in recent years. More importantly, it's clear their business plan is scale-able right across the country. Been a happy holder for quite some time now.
Opportunity knocks ?
Funny how times change, this stock used to be the biggest dog out according to the same people who now think its the bees knees, just goes to show that its best to ignore random barking because every dog really does have its day. Lol
Director appointed ..permanent this time ...... a cool choice I reckon as the way business is done changes
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/409312/391852.pdf
Agreed, looks like a good appointment.
Expecting a fully imputed quarterly dividend of 6 cps to be announced next week with a short timeframe between announcement and payment dates.
I like the finance and insurance origination competitive advantage that Turners has. They won't sell finance and insurance to all customers but attachment rates are not bad and increasing. Can work well targeting least price sensitive customers who value on the spot convenience. Quality of book also increasing which is good in these times.
Been quietly adding blocks of additional shares since post #163.
Some big declines in the share prices of WHS and SML in recent weeks have been extended in a fairly big way this week, both current NZX50 constituents. Turners share price by comparison, remaining resilient in this recession is gradually working its way into contention for index inclusion in due course, currently position 53. In the meantime, the metrics are compelling as noted earlier and the business is enjoying good tailwinds from 10,000+ vehicles written off in the flood and cyclone. Something a little bit extra attractive about a company that pays quarterly dividends...doesn't mean a lot in the overall scheme of things I know, but in my opinion, it does signal a shareholder centric focus. I guess I am a true dividend hound at heart lol.
Interestingly, I noted on CNBC this morning they did a survey on the best strategy for the rest of 2023 and holding high dividend yield shares came out on top as the most compelling strategy.
Quote from: Basil on Mar 31, 2023, 02:54 PMAgreed, looks like a good appointment.
Expecting a fully imputed quarterly dividend of 6 cps to be announced next week with a short timeframe between announcement and payment dates.
And 6 cents it is ...and fully imputed ....that's good
Same as last year so no payrise .....don't they know there's a cost of living crisis and punters need increases ...... even the government gets that bit.
I think Turners are performing very well indeed in the current tough economic environment and it's to their credit that they are able to maintain the dividend as we scrape along the bottom of the economic cycle. I believe they have sound prospects for earnings and dividend growth in the years ahead. Prospects for NZX50 inclusion in the medium term are looking good too.
People are loving this with Tina in it
I couldn't watch
https://twitter.com/disndatnz/status/1643384725959217152?s=61&t=iHjDYVMfLj1Ccl5JFHMPjA
Whome kindly pointed out to me the interesting looking TA on Turners yesterday.
Clearly broken up through the 100 day MA and looking to break up through the 200 day MA.
Record profit about to be announced in a recession.
Last day of trading today to get the Q3 fully imputed dividend of 6 cps.
#52 on the NZX free float capitalization when PPH exits with both WHS and SML making great strides towards possibly exiting the NZX50 in due course, perhaps at the September 2023 index review?
Posted the attractive metrics PE and gross yield quite recently, see post #163.
Pretty good place to ride out the recession, enjoy a very high quarterly gross yield and enjoy future growth in due course? you be the Judge.
Anyone checked second car sales prices in yards lately? amazing the prices being asked for almost anything that fires up..
Interesting stuff in Turners monthly "The Vehicle Market"
Number of dealers still declining and used car prices still at multi year highs
Things looking good
Interesting stuff in here about shipping delay's and this at a time when 10,000+ people want to replace their cars due to the flooding and cyclone weather bombs. https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/489231/delivery-time-for-some-imported-cars-increases-from-weeks-to-months-industry
Turners appear well placed considering they buy most of their cars locally.
Good for Tuners even if the lovely Tina advertisements does grind your gears a bit. Don't you love their radio add where Tina forcefully says "Cars! Cars! Cars! Tuners! Turners! Turners!" Really effective advertising eh Winner...advertising that's so bold, jarring and brazen, you can't help but remember it 😁
Quote from: Basil on May 05, 2023, 08:49 PMInteresting stuff in here about shipping delay's and this at a time when 10,000+ people want to replace their cars due to the flooding and cyclone weather bombs. https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/489231/delivery-time-for-some-imported-cars-increases-from-weeks-to-months-industry
Turners appear well placed considering they buy most of their cars locally.
Good for Tuners even if the lovely Tina advertisements does grind your gears a bit. Don't you love their radio add where Tina forcefully says "Cars! Cars! Cars! Tuners! Turners! Turners!" Really effective advertising eh Winner...advertising that's so bold, jarring and brazen, you can't help but remember it 😁
You make that sound as if the locally sourced cars are not part of the same market.
If people find it difficult to buy a newer pre-loved (due to lack of supply) they will have little motivation to sell their elder pre-loved (due to the difficulties of getting a replacement).
Whole market will slow down, and with sales prices going up, so will the prices for sourcing stock.
Only advantage of this situation for a sales company is if the have lots of stock ... and from memory - for TRA we talk something like 6 weeks worth. Not a lot.
But hey - maybe they can close down their sales yards and ask customers (like Toyota does) to register their interest in a new Toyota on the internet - don't bother anymore to come to our sales yards.
Went to Turners Christchurch yesterday afternoon looking for a first car for the grand daughter.The 2006 Toyota Vitz sounded just right.Pity they could not find it.!!!
BP they buy and sell on the same market and a rising market, (which is what we have now with stock being harder to procure and 10,000+ vehicles sought as replacement for the flooded cars) suits them better as they're getting better margins on their current stock.
The numbers of competing dealerships continue to shrink as some of their competitors who source primarily overseas continue to go out of business and Turners continues to grow its market share. Their award winning marketing is helping a lot and their steady footprint expansion throughout the regions again helps to grow their national market share.
They are shortly to report an all time record annual result despite strong headwinds in the first quarter from Omricon and strong funding cost headwinds all year and a soft economy in a cost of living crisis. I'm impressed with that.
Sold!!!! .....
https://www.turners.co.nz/Cars/Used-Cars-for-Sale/toyota/vitz/?sortorder=7&pagesize=20&pageno=1&issearchsimilar=true&make=Toyota&models=Vitz
Do not think so.Was suppose to be out the back,not ready for sale.77,406Kms,$7690 .
Bit more expensive compared with a couple on Trade Me/
2008 Vitz 76,000 kms $6800, and a 2005 98,188kms for $6,000.
Have widened my search on Trade Me.
2006 Honda Jazz,132,000 kms $5250
2007 Suzuki Swift 75,240 kms $7,000.
Makes the 2006 Nissan Tiida I bought for No.1 daughter 2 years ago with 22,500 Kms for $7,500 look cheap today.
Luckily I am in no hurry,and perhaps a good few ex rentals will becoming onto the market in the next few weeks.
Most of the cheap cars are now $10,000 to $11,,000.
This he was saying as well that he was sold on the investment case for Turners :D
Quote from: lorraina on May 07, 2023, 05:53 PMDo not think so.Was suppose to be out the back,not ready for sale.77,406Kms,$7690 .
Bit more expensive compared with a couple on Trade Me/
2008 Vitz 76,000 kms $6800, and a 2005 98,188kms for $6,000.
Have widened my search on Trade Me.
2006 Honda Jazz,132,000 kms $5250
2007 Suzuki Swift 75,240 kms $7,000.
Makes the 2006 Nissan Tiida I bought for No.1 daughter 2 years ago with 22,500 Kms for $7,500 look cheap today.
Luckily I am in no hurry,and perhaps a good few ex rentals will becoming onto the market in the next few weeks.
Most of the cheap cars are now $10,000 to $11,,000.
When I bought my children's first cars, I put in 50% of the price on one condition, that they bought a 4-5 star safety rated vehicle. One bought a VW Golf, the other a BMW 3Compact. Both were under $9k and are still going fine and fortunately neither have needed the safety features. Neither were from Turner's although we did look, apparently we couldn't just buy the car that was up for auction, even when offering to pay their reserve price (doh).
None of those cars lorainna are safe rated, in fact some of them are downright death traps in an accident.
Cheapest car at 2cheap Cars in Christchurch
2013 Toyota SPADE
124,548km
Automatic
Petrol
1,500cc
$7,664 +ORC
WAS $7,964
Qualifies for Clean Car rebate of $501.24 ?
Christchurch
Granddaughter is in her final year training to be a physiotherapist.
She will start earning next year.
This year she does placements at various hospitals,so this is the reason I am looking to buy her a car.
I have made sure she graduates with out a student loan.
Mrs Hounds car got caught in the Auckland floods. Long delay with getting it assessed by the assessor because they were...you guessed it, flooded with claims. 5 weeks for the assessor to even look at it and after three more weeks of carefully test driving various alternatives, she chose this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cgg39UjyVbY&t=51s
I remember driving it back from the dealership to bring it home so we could test drive it on local roads and thinking, Crickey, if she doesn't like this we're in real trouble because for a mid sized SUV this thing is the best handling bit of kit I've ever driven, and I can't think of anything better. She fell in love with it and ever since I've been told in no uncertain terms to keep my paws off it.
Sorry Tina, you didn't have anything this good on your car lots.
Very nice.
Quote from: Basil on May 07, 2023, 06:41 PMMrs Hounds car got caught in the Auckland floods. Long delay with getting it assessed by the assessor because they were...you guessed it, flooded with claims. 5 weeks for the assessor to even look at it and after three more weeks of carefully test driving various alternatives, she chose this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cgg39UjyVbY&t=51s
I remember driving it back from the dealership to bring it home so we could test drive it on local roads and thinking, Crickey, if she doesn't like this we're in real trouble because for a mid sized SUV this thing is the best handling bit of kit I've ever driven, and I can't think of anything better. She fell in love with it and ever since I've been told in no uncertain terms to keep my paws off it.
Sorry Tina, you didn't have anything this good on your car lots.
Bought for us a month ago a Kia Sportage as well. Great handling, safe, economical ... and yes, while I tried to give Tina a chance, none of Turners cars even made it on my short list.
Never mind - I am sure they have plenty of happy customers ... and hey, we are happy as well. Win - win.
Even old subaru outback's suitable for taking to the forest for mountain biking and leaving unlocked or fly fishing up country streams are selling for 5000
240K on the trip meter....
this is a 500 dollar give away or basically 500 for spares....
basically the engine will need a head casket replacement any time on any model up to 2005... 2010 models are selling over 8000 to 10000 depending on MILES ... ahhh KM's....
TRA is killing it...
MR B and MR P are so far ahead of the pack there is something wrong here... they are drinking tea and eating cake with the right crowd....
astonishing track records..
Quote from: BlackPeter on May 08, 2023, 10:26 AMBought for us a month ago a Kia Sportage as well. Great handling, safe, economical ... and yes, while I tried to give Tina a chance, none of Turners cars even made it on my short list.
Never mind - I am sure they have plenty of happy customers ... and hey, we are happy as well. Win - win.
Most mid size SUV's we tried didn't handle well around all the sharp corners in our neck of the woods.
Lot of body roll and pitching and heaving with many we tried. I think Kia N.Z. must get the same suspension and handling tune as the Australian Sportage vehicles because it really stood out head and shoulders above the crowd. Remarkably spacious too. Plenty of grunt from the diesel engine too and a proper 8 speed automatic gearbox unlike a lot of the CVT crap that's on other vehicles that are good for only 80,000 - 100,000 km's before they die, in our experience. Great vehicle, just wish Mrs B would throw me a bone and let me have the keys more often lol
Quote from: Basil on May 08, 2023, 11:36 AMMost mid size SUV's we tried didn't handle well around all the sharp corners in our neck of the woods.
Lot of body roll and pitching and heaving with many we tried. I think Kia N.Z. must get the same suspension and handling tune as the Australian Sportage vehicles because it really stood out head and shoulders above the crowd. Remarkably spacious too. Plenty of grunt from the diesel engine too and a proper 8 speed automatic gearbox unlike a lot of the CVT crap that's on other vehicles that are good for only 80,000 - 100,000 km's before they die, in our experience. Great vehicle, just wish Mrs B would throw me a bone and let me have the keys more often lol
Just buy another one :) - you know, you want it ...
Quote from: BlackPeter on May 08, 2023, 03:18 PMJust buy another one :) - you know, you want it ...
LOL, funny you say that, my wife suggested exactly the same thing. Maybe its a sign of what's meant to be or what's coming next 😉
Nice low mileage metallic blue one for just a smidge under $40K https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/motors/cars/kia/sportage/listing/3937087918
Hmmm
Quote from: Basil on May 07, 2023, 06:07 PMThis he was saying as well that he was sold on the investment case for Turners :D
I think all of us have made Turners our first port of call when looking for a car.
Careful Basil .......Auckland flooding again .......don't want you to drive into a big pond and write off the current car to get one of these Kia on insurance
One in the family is enough
Quote from: winner (n) on May 09, 2023, 03:18 PMCareful Basil .......Auckland flooding again .......don't want you to drive into a big pond and write off the current car to get one of these Kia on insurance
One in the family is enough
Yeah I've been out in it clearing out gutters and drains. Such fun ::)
Quote from: Basil on May 09, 2023, 04:04 PMYeah I've been out in it clearing out gutters and drains. Such fun ::)
Hope you doing a decent job
Did you see how excited and full of glee that that Dan weather guy on TV was when he pointed out it's going to get worse tonight ...he was happy as
See Todd at the same virtual do as the STU man tomorrow
Hope his rave is a good one
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/411163/394023.pdf
Excellent and very clearly articulated presentation. Looks like this really is a resilient business, unlike some that claim they are.
Looking forward to Turners reporting next Tuesday 23 May.
Fundamentally this looks excellent value on a PE and gross yield in the low 9's.
Technically since part way through January 2023 this has been building a nice recovery and with a clear break up through the 100 day MA a little while back the chart looks very encouraging.
Trading cum a 7 cps fully imputed final dividend to be announced next week I see genuine value here in a highly resilient business and expect them to grow very nicely indeed in the years ahead as we come out the other side of this recession. Knocking on the door of NZX5o inclusion too.
Disc: I added more this morning.
Turners slide from 2 years ago ...Roadmap to $5/share
They are one year ahead of achieving NPBT of $45m in F24 ...will do it this year and F24 will be close to $50m
Currently on a PE of just over 9 ........so even at $5 in a years time it will be on a PE of about 11 ....hardly demanding when you look at the profit numbers on the chart. After all Turners themselves are doing what they said they would be doing .....and the market is about to wake up from its slumber and do it's bit.
Rerating coming ..starting next week
Hope Todd updates his chart for next week ....might even hint at a Roadmap to $6/share
8CDFFFB9-D60B-48DC-9373-77E3312C5096.jpeg
Seems Turners have run out of stock, so to speak.
Less than 340 shares on offer if I am seeing thus correctly.
Excellent post Winner. Gosh I didn't realise they were one year ahead of plan and about to report a record FY24's profit in FY23. That really impressive considering the headwinds and challenges they've faced in the last year. $45m before tax = $32.4m after tax = eps of 37.4 cps.
Put a bottom of the cycle PE of 12 on that and you get $4.49. Think they were hoping for a 13 PE = $4.86.
Interesting to note their dividend policy is 60-70% of net profit after tax and 23cps = 61.5% of net profit close to the bottom of the scale. Higher dividend next year with more eps growth ?
From the other place. Very insightful post by none other than Todd Hunter himself.
I think its fabulous he engages with the investment community in this way
QuoteOne of my goals for FY24 is to turn you into a TRA supporter Black Peter!
We have a very capable team of people here. Aaron Saunders (Group CFO) and I have worked together for 16 years...he started a couple of months after me at Turners Auctions in 2006. Aaron is exactly what you want in a CFO, asks the hard questions, can be pretty tough...but very very commercial. Greg Hedgepeth (ex BMW and Armstrong Motor Group) has done a super job of taking some initial momentum we created around the wholesale to retail transition from 2013-2017 and built from there. The growth he has achieved and the quality team he has built since running Auto is impressive. James Searle who runs our Insurance Division again a very experienced and super capable guy. Our business performance is very much a team effort, and I can assure you none of that is dependent on me. Mostly I am getting things out of the way or getting myself out of the way of a very talented and ambitious group of people who want to achieve and grow a business.
I think the board work very well with our management team as well. Despite a few comments on these threads they actually 1) really care about this business and 2) get involved "hands on" where they can add value. These are not a group of people who attend 11 meetings a year and an AGM, "hold management to account" and job done. A good example of this is "Tina" from Turners...John Roberts, Grant Baker and 3 of us from management were involved in a small project team who came up with the strategy and execution. No ad agency involved although we did use one of John's old ad mates Kim Thorpe to come up with the concept. A great example of how management and the board worked together on delivering a critical piece of work. We view the line between management and the board as a flexible line and directors are welcomed into the business to contribute where they can add value or they have an interest to understand. It works well from my perspective as a CEO and as a shareholder.
On the Roadmap to $5 slide...yes this may haunt me! We got a bit of flack about the title for the slide, but plenty of kudos from the analysts and insto investors for actually calling out a target and the building blocks for how we would achieve it. I am still pleased we gave the insight (and used the title) and happy to be judged on our performance against what we said we would do.
Please don't waste any time on that first goal you mentioned Todd. You can lead a horse to water but you can't make it drink.
Short to medium term I think the chances of TRA getting NZX50 inclusion are looking better with each passing day. TRA looking like a genuine chance for inclusion at the September 2023 quarter NZX50 index review in my opinion. Alos a slim chance at the June 2023 index review.
Quote from: Basil on May 17, 2023, 07:00 PMPlease don't waste any time on that first goal you mentioned Todd. You can lead a horse to water but you can't make it drink.
Pretty stupid comment, isn't it?
Look, we know that you like to bark when you think stocks go up and you like to bark bark when stocks go down, and we know that you bark in case you were right, not so much when you were wrong.
No need though, to start one of your personal vendettas as well in this forum.
Grow up.
Chill out mate. Was just having a bit of lite hearted fun at your expense.
Nice to see Turners making a good clean break up through the 200 day moving average.
Really looking forward to them reporting on Tuesday.
Hoping for $45m and maybe a surprise 8 cps fully imputed final dividend to celebrate their record result.
Amazing they are about to report a record ever result in really tough economic times all the while facing significant headwinds with funding their finance book.... quite remarkable. Makes me wonder how much they will make in better times when interest rates decline and their loan book funding becomes a tailwind.
(Funding previous fixed rate vehicle loans written at high rates, with much cheaper floating rate bank debt). I think FY25 could be a real cracker !
Quote from: Basil on May 19, 2023, 06:18 PMNice to see Turners making a good clean break up through the 200 day moving average.
Really looking forward to them reporting on Tuesday.
Hoping for $45m and maybe a surprise 8 cps fully imputed final dividend to celebrate their record result.
Amazing they are about to report a record ever result in really tough economic times all the while facing significant headwinds with funding their finance book....remarkable really.
Oh Basil, are you attempting to predict the future for Turners !
Quote from: Whome on May 19, 2023, 06:29 PMOh Basil, are you attempting to predict the future for TRA!
Guilty as charged mate. I am a recidivist offender trying to study companies past form in an effort to beat the market. Seem to be doing okay at it :D
stunning pastels...
news of the no recession should help.. if there is blame the Olympic minister..
Holders be happy.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/411835
Key Financial Highlights:
• Revenue $389.6M +13%
• EBIT $52.2M up 9%
• NPBT $45.5M +6%
• NPAT $32.6M +4%
• Full year dividend 23.0 cps (flat)
• Earnings per share 37.7cps +4%
Key Business Highlights:
• Final FY23 dividend declared at 7.0 cps bringing FY23 dividend to 23.0 cps, matching last year and equating to a gross yield of 8.5% per annum based on the current share price of $3.75.
• Record earnings in Auto Retail and Insurance divisions more than offset Finance headwinds.
• Market share gains and margin improvement in Turner's largest division, Auto Retail led to a 28% increase in profit, following 26% in FY22.
Anything worthwhile in the presentation pack
The first page turned me off and didn't bother go any further
Quote from: winner (n) on May 23, 2023, 09:35 AMAnything worthwhile in the presentation pack
The first page turned me off and didn't bother go any further
Don't care.... don't hold.... purely academic interest for me to see how Basil spins it.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/411835/394857.pdf
Excellent result in the face of significant headwinds, especially tough economic conditions and the fastest and most significant increase in the OCR ever.
Many thanks to the hard working team at Turners.
Great to see them announce they've just won the most trusted used car brand again in 2023, for the fourth year in a row. This shows trust in the Turners brand is building and underpins their branch expansion network in the years ahead.
Result slightly exceeded my expectations of $45m by $0.5m and that was after taking another $0.5m in provisioning overlay. Great to see a DRP scheme introduced which will help with their brand expansion strategy.
From the Call:-
Solid runway of growth ahead with used cars over the next 4-5 years.
They expect approx 15-20% take-up with the DRP
Cautious on outlook for FY24 given strength of headwinds.
Interesting hearing their comments on new vehicle franchise operations and their challenges...not all it's cracked up to be with very prescriptive business model requirements from the OEM's...Turners more than happy to stick to their knitting with used vehicles.
They expect the number of other used car dealers to continue to decline in the next 12-24 months by ~ 10%
Latest economic indicators suggesting scenario 2 of the runway to $50m NPBT more likely which is still a ~ 10% growth in earnings over the next 3 years despite clear and very strong economic headwinds.
My thoughts in brief.
I think the Tina brand building marketing is brilliant and Turners growth in market share speaks for itself. Tina is to Turners what Tammy is to Briscoes. Just look at the empire and wealth Rod Duke has built. I'm really comfortable with Turners strategy going forward to build further market share with the steady expansion of their retail network and optimization of sales strategies with plans to significantly increase the percentage of retail v wholesale sales.
Metrics
Currently trading on 10 times FY23 eps which feels pretty conservatively priced to me considering the track record of growth and clearly articulated runway of growth ahead. Gross yield at $3.75 ~ 8.5% and trades cum fully imputed 7 cps final divvy. (Being paid very well to hold and enjoy growth in the years ahead).
Conclusion.
I think the team at Turners are doing a very good job. I am a happy holder.
Disc: I've recently significantly increased my stake in the early - mid $3 range and am very pleased I did.
Developing their own sites Turners [insurance] get to keep the development margin.A good earner.
• Property, plant and equipment increase due to
development of sites in Rotorua, Nelson, and
acquisition of sites in Tauranga, Napier, and
Christchurch.
Quote from: Basil on May 23, 2023, 11:43 AM...............
Metrics
Currently trading on 10 times FY23 eps which feels pretty conservatively priced to me considering the track record of growth and clearly articulated runway of growth ahead. Gross yield at $3.75 ~ 8.5% and trades cum fully imputed 7 cps final divvy. (Being paid very well to hold and enjoy growth in the years ahead).
...............
A PE of about 10 is probably pretty fair / reasonable at the moment
Last 5 years EPS grown at 6.3% pa and the next 2/3 years at 4%/5% pa so not that brilliant is it
so market probably valuingon dividend yield at the moment.
I'd prefer Price/Book metric over PE for an outfit like TRA. Financial performance is rather similar to HGH (ROE, growth etc) and maybe the marketsees TRA as a finance co rather than a car sales company.
Might up date my metrics history model to see what falls out ... but thinking $4.10 could be a stretched target share price
Quote from: winner (n) on May 23, 2023, 03:19 PM....A PE of about 10 is probably pretty fair / reasonable at the moment
Last 5 years EPS grown at 6.3% pa and the next 2/3 years at 4%/5% pa so not that brilliant is it
I think current pricing on a trailing PE of 10 is pretty conservative and reflects the fundamental uncertainty with the economy at present but may be an opportunity.
My primary filter with finding good GARP, (Growth at a reasonable price) stocks is to use a no growth PE of 8 as per Ben Graham's valuation methodology and add one PE for every percentage point of average growth in the last 5 years if I think it can be maintained in the medium term going forward.
In today's Turners presentation they show eps of 26.2 cps in FY19 growing to 37.7 cps in FY23, which is more than a 9.5% compound average growth rate in eps over that period.
I think what Todd and the team are trying to illustrate here is that since launching the Tina marketing program and refining their integrated business model the business has shown very strong growth despite the headwinds over the period, (don't forget we've had 3 years of Covid crap to deal with in those 4 years).
I definitely believe they are driving the business in the right direction and whilst the headwinds readily apparent in the economy are currently very strong, if one takes a medium term view its clear they can continue growing the business very nicely over the next 5 years.
Leaving aside the starting point Turners management chose and reverting to my standard valuation methodology to measure growth, in FY18 eps was 29.3 cps and we have 37.7 cps in FY23 so an annual average compound growth rate of just over 5% per annum over my standard 5 year measurement term.
To me, in ordinary circumstances that merits a PE of no growth 8 plus 5, (one extra PE for each percent of proven growth) = 13. 13 x 37.7, $4.90, would almost give Todd his road map to $5. To be clear, I am not saying it's worth $4.90 now. We need to drive through this recession to the other side to get those blue sky days back and then patient shareholders will reap the rewards.
I think current pricing reflects the excessive level of concern about the short term impacts on the economy from current economic factors and overlooks the solid growth this business has enjoyed in the last 5 years and is highly likely to continue to enjoy in the medium to long term.
Turners fits my classic definition of a very good GARP stock, still trading at a very attractive price for anyone prepared to look through the economic malaise the country is presently mired in.
Credit where its due, to post a record result like this with all the headwinds of FY23 is a very pleasing result indeed and a real credit to the hard working team at Turners and their brilliant marketing strategy with Tina. Better economic conditions will prevail in due course and shareholders will see even better results in the medium term after what could be a challenging FY24. My late Mum often said to me, there's always sunshine after rain son. Shareholders with patience will be well rewarded in due course. The roadmap to $5 is quite clear to me....but like the old Mainland Cheese advertisement says "Good things take time"
Say dividend in 2026 is (only) 30 cents and interest rates have fallen and punters are happy with a 6% return than they might pay $7 for TRA in 3 years
Jeez ....share price nearly doubles in 3 years ........while you collect nearly 10% pa divie
BUY NOW AND DONT MISS OUT
BUY VOLVO!!!!!
Viking warrior of the roads...
Dont miss out before they become cult cars...
Destoyer...
Quote from: Waltzing on May 24, 2023, 01:12 AMBUY VOLVO!!!!!
Viking warrior of the roads...
Dont miss out before they become cult cars...
Destoyer...
Slightly off topic if I may but with reference to waltzing's post above...
While in Göteborg a few years ago was able to visit the Volvo museum. Worth it if you're a car/ vehicle fan and happen to be in the vicinity. At the time (one of) the Volvo used by Roger Moore as The Saint was displayed prominently.
Off topic ..
Just down the road then and will have to put it on the list...
Thanks for that OMP..
Take the Purple train from Landskrona ... picture coming shortly for all you train spotters.
OMG ......Tina has died.
You were simply the best Tina. RIP Tina
She was simply the best! What a legend.
83 a fair innings.
Fortunately Turners Tina is young and building a legendary career of her own for shareholders.
Quote from: winner (n) on May 25, 2023, 07:42 AMYou were simply the best Tina. RIP Tina
The first thing that came to mind when I saw the news this morning; along with a few memories from the era.
TRA slightly down in sympathy.
Quote from: Onemootpoint on May 25, 2023, 03:15 PMThe first thing that came to mind when I saw the news this morning; along with a few memories from the era.
TRA slightly down in sympathy.
Been a sad week
First Rolf "Trust British Paints, Sure Can" and now Tina
No worries about your Tina
Bubbah is live at the Mangere Arts Centre tomorrow night
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p4WG_y7owmM&pp=ygUfdG9uaWdodCB0aW5hIHR1cm5lciBkYXZpZCBib3dpZQ%3D%3D
Quote from: lorraina on May 25, 2023, 03:41 PMhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p4WG_y7owmM&pp=ygUfdG9uaWdodCB0aW5hIHR1cm5lciBkYXZpZCBib3dpZQ%3D%3D
I saw Tina with the same backing band at Mt Smart in 1985. Best concert ever.
While I was all eyes for Tina.... my wife was watching the hulk on the Sax! lol.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GC5E8ie2pdM
they are looking for ocr rates to be moving down late next year with 3 percent inflation....
thats the last rate kick ..
Boomroo budget NOT according to Eeyore AND HE SAYS IMMIGRATION today on CNBC is going to be a big factor in NZ economy going forward....
heck surely a DIV increase coming for this stock next time round?
they will need cars, cars, CARS!
As an aside a new immigrant from Mogadishu back out from a hotel in wellington last year into rush hour traffic.... Loud noises of car horns and the little head popped out the window yelling and waving of arms in some strange language....
No car pile up thank goodness but expect more of this...
Quote from: Waltzing on May 25, 2023, 10:45 PMthey are looking for ocr rates to be moving down late next year with 3 percent inflation....
thats the last rate kick ..
Boomroo budget NOT according to Eeyore AND HE SAYS IMMIGRATION today on CNBC is going to be a big factor in NZ economy going forward....
heck surely a DIV increase coming for this stock next time round?
they will need cars, cars, CARS!
As an aside a new immigrant from Mogadishu back out from a hotel in wellington last year into rush hour traffic.... Loud noises of car horns and the little head popped out the window yelling and waving of arms in some strange language....
No car pile up thank goodness but expect more of this...
Lets face it - any dilution of Kiwi drivers is welcome! Our human road kill rate was maxing out during the time of the hermit kingdom ... it is clearly dangerous to allow Kiwis onto the road without the positive influence of overseas visitors!
wait till your backed into on a busy wellington main street and 50 cars all pile up behind you... waving of arms and loud shouting from the Mogadishu driver....
Car, cars, CARS!!!!
https://www.forsythbarr.co.nz/assets/publications/turners-automotive-group-ltd-2023-05-24-brand-momentum-drives-market-share-growth.pdf
Disc: Happy holder of this very well managed, highly resilient business.
Forbar's estimate of 27 cps divvies fully imputed for FY25 = 10.2% gross yield at today's closing price of $3.63
scary days when the Basil & I are in full agreement but that is the case here.
Have enjoyed the recent Forbar reports written re TRA. They went from the most bearish to the most bullish - their FY25 DPS forecast is 1.5c more than both CIP & Jarden. Jarden for what it's worth have the best track record in forecasting TRA financial performance - were only 0.3% off for their FY23 npat, forbar 2.1%, and CIP off 4.6%.
watching the SP with interest.
Have to agree that 27 dps for FY25 seems a bit ambitious and 26 cps more likely.
Can't believe we're on the same page. This is scary indeed...I need a very stiff drink.
best friends.jpg
BFFs
That's me on the right (I'm the one jumping higher)
lol
Got bored and decided to read last years annual report now I have quite a few of these puppies on board.
Speaking of besties, interesting Bio on the top three.
Todd Hunter, Aaron Saunders and Greg Hedgepeth all have Bachelor of Commerce degrees from Auckland University. Thought I recognized Todd when I first saw him, must check out when he was there.
Hope they worked a lot harder than I did back then lol...probably did as Todd worked for Earnst and Young for a while and they only took the cream of the crop...
Greg Hedgepeth an interesting character with his major in marketing. Worked in senior roles with BMW N.Z., Armstrong group and for a number of years, for Saatchi & Saatchi. Its no accident these guys have come up with such a great marketing plan that's really building the brand and are executing a well thought out plan to expand their business. If you can't trust your fellow alumni, who can you trust! Might as well get some more I reckon.
Yes was interesting to learn how Tina was internally developed. No fat fees paid to external consultants.
I went to Otago.
That probably explains a lot.
Otago Uni is awesome!
TRA Release
Turners Dividend Reinvestment Plan
The Board of Directors of Turners Automotive Group Limited has approved the adoption of a dividend reinvestment plan (DRP). The DRP offers the opportunity to reinvest dividends payable on existing shares by the issue of additional new shares. This provides an easy and convenient way for you to increase your investment in Turners without paying any brokerage fees.
The Board has decided that the new shares will be issued at a 2% discount to the market price at the time entitlements are determined. The Board may review the extent of discount (if any) at any time.
Participation in the Plan is optional, and you can decide whether to reinvest all, part or none of your cash dividends in additional shares.
If you decide not to participate, you do not need to do anything, and you will continue to receive all future dividends as cash. If you change your mind regarding participation, you can elect to join the Plan at any time.
You can read a copy of the full DRP offer at www.turnersautogroup.co.nz/investor-centre/. If you wish to participate in the Plan please visit www.investorcentre.com/nz to update your reinvestment options in the "My Profile" page. Alternatively complete the attached Participation Election Notice and email to drp@computershare.co.nz.
If you have any queries on the Dividend Reinvestment Plan please contact Computershare by emailing drp@computershare.co.nz or by calling 09 488 8777.
Basil, the gods have spoken.
I'm keen for more shares. Pretty cool that the number of shares issued is quarterly so the number of extra shares you get will grow with quarterly compounding....sounds like a darn reasonable proposition (DRP) to me.
https://stockhead.cmail19.com/t/d-l-vlhlhut-yupddjlly-m/
No, Tina from Turners didn't die
https://www.stuff.co.nz/entertainment/tv-radio/300897291/no-tina-from-turners-didnt-die
Saw it posted elsewhere that BP has bought a medium sized parcel. Oh my goodness,...after all these years of such overt negativity.
Curious what's changed for you BP ?
Quote from: Basil on Jun 06, 2023, 09:41 AMSaw it posted elsewhere that BP has bought a medium sized parcel. Oh my goodness,...after all these years of such overt negativity.
Curious what's changed for you BP ?
Haha, yes, I saw that too and wasn't sure whether I should repeat that 'feat' here or not. You would have seen Todd comment that he considers it a win.
Yes Todd made it clear it was one of his KPI goals to get BP on board. Maybe BP was invited to attend a personal meeting with Todd and Tina and Tina gave him a big hug ;D Maybe now I have over 100,000 shares I get a hug as well lol.
Quote from: Basil on Jun 06, 2023, 09:41 AMSaw it posted elsewhere that BP has bought a medium sized parcel. Oh my goodness,...after all these years of such overt negativity.
Curious what's changed for you BP ?
Why don't you just ask me in the other forum, given you read it anyway? It is quite unpolite that you always seem to have the need to comment on the other forum, but over here. Its like talking about others behind their back. Didn't your parents taught you that this is unpolite?
Just post over there if you dare. :P ;
But anyway - sure, opposed to you who only seems to see just the positive or just the negative (depending on whether you are in up or down ramping mode) do I normally see both risks as well as opportunities for any stock.
Given that you make no secrets out of the opportunities, I used to emphasize the risks to create some balance - this is not overt negative.
The reason I see now the opportunities weighing heavier than the risks is that it looks in my view more and more likely for NZ to get reasonably smooth and in full employment through the announced recession (which may or may not come).
This would moderate the risks I saw related to loan defaults rising and a demand dropping. May still come, but if it does probably in a manageable way.
Incidentally it appears the market shares this view with SP currently approaching the golden cross.
Quote from: BlackPeter on Jun 06, 2023, 05:56 PMWhy don't you just ask me in the other forum, given you read it anyway? It is quite unpolite that you always seem to have the need to comment on the other forum, but over here. Its like talking about others behind their back. Didn't your parents taught you that this is unpolite?
Just post over there if you dare. :P ;
But anyway - sure, opposed to you who only seems to see just the positive or just the negative (depending on whether you are in up or down ramping mode) do I normally see both risks as well as opportunities for any stock.
Given that you make no secrets out of the opportunities, I used to emphasize the risks to create some balance - this is not overt negative.
The reason I see now the opportunities weighing heavier than the risks is that it looks in my view more and more likely for NZ to get reasonably smooth and in full employment through the announced recession (which may or may not come).
This would moderate the risks I saw related to loan defaults rising and a demand dropping. May still come, but if it does probably in a manageable way.
Incidentally it appears the market shares this view with SP currently approaching the golden cross.
I think we're all singing from the same page here, BP. We've all analysed the risk/rewards and seen an opportunity. I have a small holding and may add a few more. And hey - whisper it - there remains the chance of TRA being included in the NZX50 ::)
Blatant attempted deflection BP. Just admit it, you have FOMO after missing the strong HLG gains and can't stand to miss out again :P
Quote from: Basil on Jun 06, 2023, 09:03 PMBlatant attempted deflection BP. Just admit it, you have FOMO after missing the strong HLG gains and can't stand to miss out again :P
May I suggest you stop trolling and spreading untruths.
At the time you were ramping HLG on the other forum (like early last year), SP was above $7. What an amazing investment HLG was since then. But I recon you rely on people having exceptional short memories, do you?
Quote from: BlackPeter on Jun 07, 2023, 09:00 AMMay I suggest you stop trolling and spreading untruths.
At the time you were ramping HLG on the other forum (like early last year), SP was above $7. What an amazing investment HLG was since then. But I recon you rely on people having exceptional short memories, do you?
Those were the days ....HLG over $7 and TRA about $4.50
Both companies just as good, maybe even better, than back then but market views as to what they are 'worth' has changed
Even my views have changed since then ....nothing wrong with that
Yeap, NZX50 gross index inclusive of dividends is down 15% from the peak, (~ 13,800 to ~ 11,800) so a company that's paid high dividends over that time and is down ~ 15% has well and truly outperformed the market. Arguably the biggest key factor undermining the current valuation of stocks relative to where they were is the rise in the 10 year risk free Govt stock rate from approx. 0.5% a couple of years ago to ~ 4.5% yesterday. That and the steepest rate of OCR increases ever.
A rising tide lifts all boats and unfortunately a falling tide has the opposite effect. In this market unfortunately it's been a case of where's best to hide and.
HLG and TRA have been better than most.
I'm very confident that once we get through to the other side of this recession, quality will shine through and in due course, both stocks will make new highs.
In the meantime, unlike the vast majority of other stocks, we're being paid very handsomely with gross yield of approx. 9% to wait.
Both are classic GARP stocks, (growth at a reasonable price), despite the resident naysayer calling them pure cyclical's for so many years I have lost count.
Way the new 2 Cheap Cars are talking Turners need to up their game to maintain their so-called 'market leadership'
Turners have raised "The Bar" for all second hand car dealers.
The sector is so much better because of Turners' leadership.
ps.They also have a good number of Kias for sale..lol
Quote from: lorraina on Jun 16, 2023, 04:00 PMTurners have raised "The Bar" for all second hand car dealers.
The sector is so much better because of Turners' leadership.
ps.They also have a good number of Kias for sale..lol
Do they?
Just checked their Christchurch branch (on
TradeMe). 58 cars currently listed, of them zero Kia's.
Which sort of makes sense. They buy their used cars in Japan. Kia is made in South Korea.
Quote from: BlackPeter on Jun 16, 2023, 04:45 PMDo they?
Just checked their Christchurch branch (on
TradeMe).
https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/motors/dealer/2-cheap-cars-christchurch
58 cars at time of writing this listed, of them zero Kia's.
Which sort of makes sense. They buy their used cars in Japan. Kia is made in South Korea.
Quote from: BlackPeter on Jun 16, 2023, 04:45 PMDo they?
Just checked their Christchurch branch (on
TradeMe). 58 cars currently listed, of them zero Kia's.
Which sort of makes sense. They buy their used cars in Japan. Kia is made in South Korea.
I was referring to Turners stock of Kias.Their site says 44 nation wide.
ps.2Cheap Cars have 70 cars on their Blenheim Road Branch.
Well they did last Sunday..lol
pps.No Kias.
"WE'RE GETTING STRONGER" LOL the front cover of the annual report sums it all up very well.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/413843/397411.pdf
2 Cheap Cars seem to be on a roll and pretty gung-ho about the future
Hope they don't make too much of a dent in Turners business ...got to be room for both of them growing doesn't there?
I do not see 2CC making a dent in Turners market.
I see both growing as small dealers leave the market.
Tina from Turners has helped Turners Automotive Group buy and sell more used "cars, cars, cars" - so many that it paid off the company's $300,000 ad campaign within one month.
However, listed company Turners was witnessing a slowdown in the used car market, with buyers seeking more vehicles below $15,000.
The company's costs had increased 110 per cent in its car lending division, as it couldn't reprice interest rates quick enough to keep up with the pace of the official cash rate.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/how-the-tina-from-turners-ad-paid-off-in-a-month/LAJ7NQFB4ZAKFJ3I6OEVSLL2J4/
People should watch the whole Markets with Madison video which might help them form their own opinion of TRA's prospects.
However, listed company Turners was witnessing a slowdown in the used car market, with buyers seeking more vehicles below $15,000.
Exactly 2CC's market..
Quote from: Basil on Jul 13, 2023, 02:02 PMPeople should watch the whole Markets with Madison video which might help them form their own opinion of TRA's prospects.
True.
I liked the message from the TRA CEO (linked by KW, or link below). Around the 4 minute mark he again reiterates the potential expansion with more branches, but importantly still very far from peak network. Bodes well for future growth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JWyQii-xF88
Guy on other channel reported that Todd told a preso this morning TRA was 47th biggest co on NZX .....obviously inferring he's hoping for inclusion in NZX50
That'll take share price to 5 bucks
Another lot of Directors jumping on the gravy train craze and wanting big pay increase
That Strategic Pay outfit must be creaming it these days .......changing a few numbers in a standard template at regular intervals and no doubt charging an arm and a leg for 'coming up' with a good number
Another NO vote from me ..but they won't care
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/415114/398950.pdf
You would be surprised at the number of young man who drive old american big junk heaps and thinks they are cool...
Not car that will end up at Turners but just shows the numbers of Red necks still out there driving petrol big car junk....
Plenty of old cars but are there going to be buyers and for how long until there is an tipping point and it all crushed junk...\
take a look around the car yards full of old junk...
Directors asking for about 40% pay rise
Prob say they haven't had one since 2019 year ....but heck npbt and dividends haven't increased by 40% over that time.
Quote from: Basil on Jul 13, 2023, 02:02 PMPeople should watch the whole Markets with Madison video which might help them form their own opinion of TRA's prospects.
Did I miss something about Mr Bs absence, this the last post I can see from a week and a half ago. We all know and love his usual yappy style, he must be enjoying it, whatever he's up to right now.
Quote from: winner (n) on Jul 24, 2023, 09:37 AMDirectors asking for about 40% pay rise
Prob say they haven't had one since 2019 year ....but heck npbt and dividends haven't increased by 40% over that time.
Outrageous ask, imo. You can see that they set the stage a while ago for the recompense by declaring the share price as undervalued, and as soon as the SP makes a move they have their hands out for a pay rise.
Sure, a modest recognition but 40%! Gotta be joking, or pulling our legs.
40% seems a bit over the top.
Dilemma is, if we believe they look after the company we may own a share of, and the company performs well, or better than other companies when times are tough (so not necessarily the highest rate of return), we want to incentivise them to stay and not go on to other ventures.
But 40%...a bit much I think.
Auto prices still up in the US according to CNBC this morning....
average second hand car price over 20 G US!!!
what?
Quote from: winner (n) on Jul 19, 2023, 02:03 PMGuy on other channel reported that Todd told a preso this morning TRA was 47th biggest co on NZX .....obviously inferring he's hoping for inclusion in NZX50
That'll take share price to 5 bucks
Absolutely - it worked for HLG. They used to be before the NZX50 inclusion above $5 and managed to maintain this position :) ;
Quote from: BlackPeter on Aug 22, 2023, 12:40 PMAbsolutely - it worked for HLG. They used to be before the NZX50 inclusion above $5 and managed to maintain this position :) ;
NZX50 inclusion certainly worked for HLG traders and long term holders. Holders have seen an increase of around 60c on pre-inclusion prices and traders would have made a bundle at the peak of around $6.90. No reason to suggest that there wouldn't be a similar outcome if TRA is included. And in the meantime, both stocks return a healthy dividend. What could go wrong? :o
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/416869/401066.pdf
At first glance this looks more solid than I expected. Its very impressive they expect to grow profit in FY24 in a very weak economy with very strong funding cost headwinds and have raised the dividend guidance. In light of the above headwinds, I was expecting a slight pullback in FY24 profit and retention of the 23 cps dividend guidance so this surpasses my expectations. Longer term, there's a lot to like about how they are growing the brand and of course their award-winning marketing strategy is a key driver of that. Knocking on the door of NZX50 inclusion too. Disc: One of my largest holdings.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/416864/401061.pdf
Although NZ still has a high level of economic uncertainty, Turners' business has continued to perform
exceptionally well.
US second hand prices have stayed up with average over 20 G... cant be right?
EV's will face huge resource problems getting the material and manufacturing of these computers on wheels faces constraints and cost increases...
Now where is that old Gold MX 5 in the car shed ... dust it off and fix the dents and maybe its worth something? Tires look ok ... gosh it may have gone up in value more that stocks lately...
It was destined for the crusher .. not hard on fuel ... maybe it could be used for shopping at the super market ..
Quote from: Basil on Aug 23, 2023, 10:09 AMhttp://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/416869/401066.pdf
At first glance this looks more solid than I expected. Its very impressive they expect to grow profit in FY24 in a very weak economy with very strong funding cost headwinds and have raised the dividend guidance. In light of the above headwinds, I was expecting a slight pullback in FY24 profit and retention of the 23 cps dividend guidance so this surpasses my expectations. Longer term, there's a lot to like about how they are growing the brand and of course their award-winning marketing strategy is a key driver of that. Knocking on the door of NZX50 inclusion too. Disc: One of my largest holdings.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/416864/401061.pdf
Although NZ still has a high level of economic uncertainty, Turners' business has continued to perform
exceptionally well.
Good call in backing up the truck there, Basil.
The market certainly seems to have liked both the result and the bullish forecast for FY24. Says a lot about the confidence of TRA Management to forecast a 24c dividend for next year - that's a gross yield of 8.5%.
Roll on September NZX50 rebalancing!
Thanks LoungeLizard. Shareguy very kindly shared Forbar's latest index research with me earlier today.
My read is index inclusion is highly likely in December and a slight chance for Sept.
Really though that's just going to be the cherry on top because what I find most interesting, and I must admit a little bit surprising, is their ability to perform very well indeed in very weak economic conditions and with very, very strong funding cost headwinds. I'm really looking forward to how they grow eps once those headwinds abate.
In the meantime, I note @ $3.70 TRA trades on FY23 PE of just 9.75 so with growth this year I think a forward PE of 9.5 seems like a conservative estimate. Based on a forecast of 24 cps fully imputed dividends = 24/0.72 = 33.33 cps / 370 = gross prospective yield of 9.0% which can be boosted to an effective yield of 9 / 0.98 = 9.18% by taking shares in lieu of divvy at a 2% discount. Additionally, its not that long until the Q1 dividend so if you get a bit creative and treat that as part repayment of the purchase price, based on a net purchase of $3.64 and taking the DRP the gross yield could be calculated ats high as 9.34%. Further, I think the chances of annual dividends growing nicely in the years ahead are very good indeed as they continue to roll out their branch expansion and try and convert more wholesale auction sales into higher margin retail.
All looks like very sound long-term investing to me. Fits my classic definition of a GARP stock (growth at a reasonable price) as well as a great dividend hounds stock.
Chairman and CEO's address http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/416929/401154.pdf
Directors got their pay rise ..a few dissenters
Chart looks good and building a good base for sure...
Maybe a good time to sell any spare petrol engine cars to TRA..
will there be an october sell off on markets and get TRA 20 cents cheaper? probably not...
Quote from: winner (n) on Aug 23, 2023, 05:16 PMDirectors got their pay rise ..a few dissenters
Three zubstantial zhareholders (Bartel Holdings Limited, Montezemolo Holdings and Harrigans Trustees) vith a total of 21,771,936 zhares. Maybe add 1,271,023 ACC zhares to the total to get 23,042,959. Now zubtract that number vrom the total zhares on issue.
86,700,247-23,042,959= 63,657,288.
Zhareholders voting against director fee heist: 3,415,604
3,414,604 / 63,657,288 = 5.4%
OR if we just consider the shareholders villing to vote at all
3,414,604 / 44,000,000 = 7.8%
Vor a company that is apparently 'doing vell', zis is more than a 'zlap on ze hand'. Zis is a 'kick up ze bum'.
RB
Quote from: Waltzing on Aug 23, 2023, 07:37 PMChart looks good and building a good base for sure...
Maybe a good time to sell any spare petrol engine cars to TRA..
will there be an october sell off on markets and get TRA 20 cents cheaper? probably not...
There's always a chance international markets, and by that I mean the USA, may drop back a bit by October, and it probably should. This may (likely will) rub off on our market but with a quality stock like this wait to buy in (if not already in) at one's own peril. Can always buy more should it drop back a bit. As Basil laid out above, the yield is extremely attractive and GARP certainly applies to TRA.
Yes TRA is another winner() stock pick by the grand master of the hunting pack...
Well he did say he was having a break to look after his fitness.... those hunts can go on for a mighty long time and hunting down all the prey is a big day out and some RR is always needed by any HOUND...
Quote from: Waltzing on Aug 24, 2023, 05:42 PMYes TRA is another winner() stock pick by the grand master of the hunting pack...
Well he did say he was having a break to look after his fitness.... those hunts can go on for a mighty long time and hunting down all the prey is a big day out and some RR is always needed by any HOUND...
Hehe, true; and probably well deserved.
Quote from: Waltzing on Aug 24, 2023, 05:42 PMYes TRA is another winner() stock pick by the grand master of the hunting pack...
Well he did say he was having a break to look after his fitness.... those hunts can go on for a mighty long time and hunting down all the prey is a big day out and some RR is always needed by any HOUND...
You're far too kind mate...I'm no better than a greedy Beagle that's never satisfied with the amount of dog food in my bowl lol
But, speaking of that and being the insatiably hungry dividend hound I am, yesterday I couldn't help comparing the track record of how dividends have grown over the last 5 years between TRA and GNE, both trading on a yield in the 9's.
Using my standard 5 year comparison timeframe I always use when comparing stocks because the most recent years data is the most relevant in my opinion, I noted Inflation since 2018 has been 20.5% in total (RBNZ inflation calculator website) so that's the baseline.
GNE have grown dividends just 4% so are 16.5% behind inflation.
TRA have grown dividends from 15 cps to 23 cps up 55% so 34.5% ahead of inflation.
I then started pondering what about the next 5 years. Clearly the board sent a very strong signal that dividends will not be growing at GNE for many years as they try and build up their solar generation, so their dividends are highly likely to decline in real inflation adjusted terms in the next 5 years.
On the other hand, I see the prospects for TRA dividends growing as being very good as they continue to roll out their branch network and continue to convert more wholesale vehicle sales to higher margin retail.
On top of that, GNE is facing an index exclusion event and TRA is likely to face an index inclusion event before year end.
Further, TRA pay quarterly, and their imputation level attached to dividends is not under threat, whereas GNE's is...hounds prefer full imputation credits which reduces the size of the amount of food the Govt take out of their dog bowl.
Looking out another 5 years I think TRA divvies will be somewhere in the 30's, cents per annum and at best GNE will be stuck where it is.
Finally, hounds hate it when they read woke things in presentations things like looking through the three lenses of people planet and prosperity the results were very good. Any pure bred dividend hound that's any good only looks through one lens, how much dog food can I catch here?
Then I mused, sure, GNE might be able to replace rapidly declining Kupe output and forthcoming end of life Rankine retirement in due course with solar energy of an equivalent output and earnings for GNE shareholders, or maybe they can't and the obvious end of life headwinds to GNE's outputs are exactly that, obvious indications they cannot sustain those dividends over the long term? Why bother taking the chance when they already have an abysmal track record of not growing earnings anywhere near the rate of inflation? To me that's like backing a racehorse at the track that keeps on losing and telling yourself it must come right. Then I reminded myself of the definition of insanity, doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. No, if you want dividend growth GNE is definitely not the place to be invested, whereas the prospects at TRA are very good..
I like backing winners so yesterday I asked myself why back GNE at all, why not just buy more TRA instead and grow dividends not let them decline year on year on year? Philosophy 101 "To they own self be true" I am a pure bred dividend hound that loves large feeds that keep growing.
... pretty compelling arguments.
Still - the reasons for owning both I can see are:
1) diversification is good to spread risks (they are quite different industries with different cycles),
2) nobody can predict the future - and five years is a long time for investors, when it is often necessary to change once views in days, weeks or months.
3) All these solar farms costing money now will as well increase the value of GNE. They do invest money to make money (and they will).
Discl: holding both.
I'd wager you a good German beer that you're just as pleasantly surprised as I am they can grow the business in the current recessionary conditions as I am. Really pleased with the positive update from the annual meeting. A real breath of fresh air in this soggy market.
Quote from: Basil on Aug 25, 2023, 01:23 PMI'd wager you a good German beer that you're just as pleasantly surprised as I am they can grow the business in the current recessionary conditions as I am. Really pleased with the positive update from the annual meeting. A real breath of fresh air in this soggy market.
What's the wager? I love good German beer ...
But yes, after sitting today through the OCA AGM I must say that the TRA star appears to shine brighter and brighter :) ;
Quote from: BlackPeter on Aug 25, 2023, 05:39 PMWhat's the wager? I love good German beer ...
But yes, after sitting today through the OCA AGM I must say that the TRA star appears to shine brighter and brighter :) ;
You'll probably need quite a few beers if you sat through all of OCA's AGM...
Our man Liam Lawson to drive F1 Dutch GP this weekend
Go our Liam
Money well spent
A big ask as it is a difficult car to drive.
Great effort from Liam in Dutch GP
Tina would be proud of him ......Turners 'support' winners
Am I the only one struggling to see how Turners gets any commercial mileage from this sponsorship?
Yes..............
There's a cool bit on Instagram ...Tina going for a spin with Liam
Followers love it ...and will go to Turners next time
Quote from: Basil on Aug 28, 2023, 12:16 PMAm I the only one struggling to see how Turners gets any commercial mileage from this sponsorship?
Probably gives the Chair a buzz
Marketing payback. Coolest thing I have ever seen is Todd saying the initial $300K cost of creating the Tina marketing program was recovered in the very first month of sales! Its award-winning and hugely successful marketing like that that's driven the 55% increase in dividends in the last 5 years.
Pet projects of the Chair, much harder to measure the payback if any, I reckon. Good thing he has a decent stake in the company though so he'll keep wanting to drive better results and bigger dividends so he can afford even faster Ferrari's. That's a win-win for everyone.
Quote from: Basil on Aug 28, 2023, 12:40 PMMarketing payback. Coolest thing I have ever seen is Todd saying the initial $300K cost of creating the Tina marketing program was recovered in the very first month of sales! Its award-winning and hugely successful marketing like that that's driven the 55% increase in dividends in the last 5 years.
Pet projects of the Chair, much harder to measure the payback if any, I reckon. Good thing he has a decent stake in the company though so he'll keep wanting to drive better results and bigger dividends so he can afford even faster Ferrari's. That's a win-win for everyone.
Ha ha ...only a marketing man / car salesman could come with saying marketing paid for itself in a month .......bit far fetched that claim I reckon ...prob used the same methodology the council uses on its cost benefits studies
Suppose it does work over time though
Wonder how much they give Liam a year
Quote from: Basil on Aug 28, 2023, 12:16 PMAm I the only one struggling to see how Turners gets any commercial mileage from this sponsorship?
I noticed that the mister Hunter himself referred to their support elsewhere (other channel) albeit not specifically answering your question.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/418266/403026.pdf
70% of that at a very low margin. Presume ND means not disclosed and will be at a higher margin.
I continue to believe there is a very good chance for NZX50 inclusion with the December rebalance and that could lead to a 0-25% increase in the share price that could be temporary or otherwise. More importantly I believe the business is in very good shape and well placed to grow in the years ahead and at around $3.50 is trading on compelling metrics of forward PE ~ 9 and gross yield based on 25 cps fully imputed, (my estimate) 9.9%. Additionally, it presently trades cum a 6 cent fully imputed dividend. Back that out as a return of capital and the gross forecast yield becomes 34.72 cps gross / $3.44 = 10.09%, (10.3% if you take the advantage of the 2% discounted DRP). I think the prospects for dividend growth in the years ahead are also very good.
Disc: My #1 investment position on the NZX.
Yes the top rated tranche a good margin at 155bps over BKBM. With a modeled wal of 1.3 years (but 3.3 years weighted average remaining term) they will be taking out a swap for whatever period (say ~2 years) and pay the margin ontop of that.
Not sure why margin on 2nd tranche not disclosed but yes probably higher given lower level of credit support despite the same credit rating.
Last tranche probably held mostly by Oxford/Turners to provide the credit support to the above tranches.
Reasonably small ABS but still very positive to establish the programme and optimise capital.
https://www.fitchratings.com/research/structured-finance/fitch-assigns-expected-ratings-to-turners-marque-abs-2023-1-trust-outlook-stable-03-09-2023
Quote from: Basil on Sep 15, 2023, 10:19 AMAdditionally, it presently trades cum a 6 cent fully imputed dividend.
Disc: My #1 investment position on the NZX.
Also my daughters no.1 NZX position (via Sharesies). Her eyes glaze over when I talk about S&P500 ETF's, as with most things that isn't horse related. But she gets Tina.
While not enough shares to be worthwhile to transfer out and take part in the DRP, I bought her the equivalent value of shares to the dividend amount already (transaction free as part of her monthly fee), so she gets the dividend on those.
Hey fellas, it's my no.2 biggest hold... big question for me is what is it going to take to get the share price moving in the right direction with a bit of momentum? It's not like they are short of good positive announcements! Great Div and all n all a great company.
Quote from: Ricky Bobby on Sep 15, 2023, 01:50 PMHey fellas, it's my no.2 biggest hold... big question for me is what is it going to take to get the share price moving in the right direction with a bit of momentum? It's not like they are short of good positive announcements! Great Div and all n all a great company.
NZX50 index inclusion sooner or later, probably in December.
Have to wonder why its price is a bit second hand...
gross div over 9 is it?
Is it the product they are selling and that is why? It not Junk yard stuff but its not Top end show room either...
and the price reflects that.
Yield - see post #298.
Award winning marketing, management and directors have a decent stake and are doing very well to weather the headwinds in the economy and very strong headwinds with funding costs.
There's a lot to like including that they clearly communicate their future strategy too.
There are not many stocks on the NZX I feel all that comfortable with in a weak economy, but this feels like a "safe harbor" to me.
Liam Lawson top 10 finish in Singapore ...pretty amazing stuff
Probably not very proper for Turners to run a campaign aimed at wannabe boy racers starring Liam .....be a boy racer like me, go to Turners
Quote from: Basil on Sep 17, 2023, 03:04 PMYield - see post #298.
Award winning marketing, management and directors have a decent stake and are doing very well to weather the headwinds in the economy and very strong headwinds with funding costs.
There's a lot to like including that they clearly communicate their future strategy too.
There are not many stocks on the NZX I feel all that comfortable with in a weak economy, but this feels like a "safe harbor" to me.
We have been selling vehicles through them over the last few months. Things are still selling easily and for a good price. So the used vehicle market is still really active. Great service also.
Thanks Ricky, I appreciate you sharing your user experience dealing with Turners and its good to hear you are happy with their service.
Does Tina marketing campaign have a return on investment ....of course it does because I keep hearing 'award winning marketing' on forums like Stocktalk (sorry Basil)
Tom always up with the play ...sorry can't post screen shot of cartoon as file too big for stocktalk so just click here
https://x.com/tomfishburne/status/1706018244279308312?s=61&t=iHjDYVMfLj1Ccl5JFHMPjA
Quote from: Ricky Bobby on Sep 22, 2023, 11:20 AMWe have been selling vehicles through them over the last few months. Things are still selling easily and for a good price. So the used vehicle market is still really active. Great service also.
Any Hybrids or Electric.?
If so what %.
LOL Winner, I'm not biting because I know their marketing is working. I've listened into their analyst calls in recent years and heard firsthand how happy they are with their, (and let's get this right), "MULTI" award winning marketing campaign. I remain unsure how sponsoring someone in Formula 1 adds to their bottom line but judging from all the favorable comments on the other social media channel by you and others :P, there must be some logic to it.
"safe arbor"
tragic but true...
also maybe the directors really want to go to the party in Monaco one day ...
" re the Mclaren movie"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WOFpVOqF960
In the end its all about the money honey ...
and they got the dough...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cS06eprlj2I
Quote from: lorraina on Sep 25, 2023, 10:25 AMAny Hybrids or Electric.?
If so what %.
A real mix bag. Mostly Mitzi Tritan ute's and a couple hybrid cars.
Bit of movement upwards, funds hedging bets that it's going to be in the nzx50?..
Just as an aside, a PSA on the whole hybrid / PHEV and EV thing.
I think we are all cognizant that there is highly likely to be big changes in the incentives if National get in and most should be aware that road user charges will be applied from 1 April 2024 ($76 per 1,000 km's) so the combined effect of that will seriously undermine the attractiveness of these sort of cars taking into account their much higher initial capex outlay.
What's not so widely known is the disappointing fuel economy people are getting from hybrids in the real world. What they say on the official fuel economy sticker and what you get are two very different things.
Couple of examples to illustrate might help. In 2022 Wheels magazine did a massive test of (from memory) over a dozen medium SUV's to determine their car of the year, (Won by The Kia Sportage), Mrs Beagle has one now. I was fascinated to note that they observed that the fuel economy of the Kia Sportage diesel, (which we have) in the real world as tested was almost exactly the same as the much-hyped Toyota Rav4 hybrid which have sold in huge numbers at a substantial premium to what we paid for a non hybrid diesel.
Another real world example is we bought a new Honda Civic hybrid in 2007 which had an official fuel economy rating of 4.6 L/100km's and we got in the low 7's in the real world. Ironically her 2 generations later ICE Honda Civic we replaced that vehicle with in 2016 also got in the low 7's (liters per 100 km's)
The other very nasty surprise many people are getting with used hybrids is battery replacement costs. It's not uncommon for people to not only be very disappointed with the substantial variance in real world fuel consumption v what's claimed, but also to get hit around the head with a bill for (common for Toyota hybrids) $6,000 - $8,000 bill for a replacement battery when it dies at about the 8-10 year mark.
Our user experience with the above-mentioned Civic hybrid was the battery started performing really poorly, (almost dead), at the 9 years mark and the thousands of dollars cost to replace it made it more economic to trade the vehicle in and let it be someone else's problem. I suspect a lot of the hybrids coming in from overseas have batteries that are towards the end of their life and buyers will find out sooner or later that the pretty minor fuel economy benefits they're getting come with a very nasty sting in their tail.
Heck even my very fancy gold Seiko Contura solar watch that cost me about $1,000 8 years ago has started not keeping time properly and I found out it too is not a true solar watch but has a lithium ion rechargeable battery that is almost dead. I am sure we have all experienced the gradual deterioration of batteries in our laptops, phones and even electric toothbrushes. The same thing happens with hybrid cars. They're not all they are cracked up to be when you start factoring in battery replacement costs every 8-10 years or so.
Looks as though I may keep the Nissan awhile longer.Coming up to it 20th birthday next year.
Flew through a warrant the other day.What a fantastic car.Getting to be up with a Toyota.lol.
Quote from: Basil on Sep 26, 2023, 11:31 AMJust as an aside, a PSA on the whole hybrid / PHEV and EV thing.
I think we are all cognizant that there is highly likely to be big changes in the incentives if National get in and most should be aware that road user charges will be applied from 1 April 2024 ($76 per 1,000 km's) so the combined effect of that will seriously undermine the attractiveness of these sort of cars taking into account their much higher initial capex outlay.
What's not so widely known is the disappointing fuel economy people are getting from hybrids in the real world. What they say on the official fuel economy sticker and what you get are two very different things.
Couple of examples to illustrate might help. In 2022 Wheels magazine did a massive test of (from memory) over a dozen medium SUV's to determine their car of the year, (Won by The Kia Sportage), Mrs Beagle has one now. I was fascinated to note that they observed that the fuel economy of the Kia Sportage diesel, (which we have) in the real world as tested was almost exactly the same as the much-hyped Toyota Rav4 hybrid which have sold in huge numbers at a substantial premium to what we paid for a non hybrid diesel.
Another real world example is we bought a new Honda Civic hybrid in 2007 which had an official fuel economy rating of 4.6 L/100km's and we got in the low 7's in the real world. Ironically her 2 generations later ICE Honda Civic we replaced that vehicle with in 2016 also got in the low 7's (liters per 100 km's)
The other very nasty surprise many people are getting with used hybrids is battery replacement costs. It's not uncommon for people to not only be very disappointed with the substantial variance in real world fuel consumption v what's claimed, but also to get hit around the head with a bill for (common for Toyota hybrids) $6,000 - $8,000 bill for a replacement battery when it dies at about the 8-10 year mark.
Our user experience with the above-mentioned Civic hybrid was the battery started performing really poorly, (almost dead), at the 9 years mark and the thousands of dollars cost to replace it made it more economic to trade the vehicle in and let it be someone else's problem. I suspect a lot of the hybrids coming in from overseas have batteries that are towards the end of their life and buyers will find out sooner or later that the pretty minor fuel economy benefits they're getting come with a very nasty sting in their tail.
Heck even my very fancy gold Seiko Contura solar watch that cost me about $1,000 8 years ago has started not keeping time properly and I found out it too is not a true solar watch but has a lithium ion rechargeable battery that is almost dead. I am sure we have all experienced the gradual deterioration of batteries in our laptops, phones and even electric toothbrushes. The same thing happens with hybrid cars. They're not all they are cracked up to be when you start factoring in battery replacement costs every 8-10 years or so.
People seems to be sold on the value of virtuousness.
But not on the Total Cost of Ownership.
I took a Toyota Highlander hybrid for a spin a couple weeks back and was surprised that the difference between that and my current v6 Highlander was bugger all... can't quite remember but it was under 2ltr/100k difference.... They arnt bringing the v6 into the country anymore, which sux!
Quote from: Minimoke on Sep 26, 2023, 12:49 PMPeople seems to be sold on the value of virtuousness.
But not on the Total Cost of Ownership.
I think that sum's it up quite nicely in many cases but I think there's widespread ignorance about the issues I talked about earlier today. I feel for families struggling to afford the basics with cost of living who buy an imported used hybrid vehicle thinking that's going to help them and then find themselves getting "king hit" with a completely unexpected $8,000 hybrid battery replacement bill they have no hope of being able to afford.
Quote from: Basil on Sep 26, 2023, 03:59 PMI think that sum's it up quite nicely in many cases but I think there's widespread ignorance about the issues I talked about earlier today. I feel for families struggling to afford the basics with cost of living who buy an imported used hybrid vehicle thinking that's going to help them and then find themselves getting "king hit" with a completely unexpected $8,000 hybrid battery replacement bill they have no hope of being able to afford.
Depends on what you buy IMO.
I had a 2003 Toyota Estima 2.4l, replaced it with a 2011 Camry Hybrid 2.5l, spent the cash on a full hybrid inspection including battery SOH, battery was at 84% iirc, so yes, a bit reduced. Camry costs almost half as much to run (petrol) as the Estima. When needed, can buy an aftermarket battery pack with 36 month / 40000kms warranty $2120 each.
I've had it for about 3 years, with no issues so far. Definitely less good than a new one, but no massive depreciation / initial purchase cost. TBH I would be more concerned about the CVT.
I didn't want a diesel as they aren't great for constant short runs, plus RUC's etc. If I was happy with a small car I would have gone for a small economical petrol vehicle - but I hate small cars because I need to cary stuff around, and I am just under 6 foot 4.
Yeap, CVT's another ticking time bomb in a lot of vehicles, not just hybrids. Hate the things and to be avoided if possible. I think it's likely your Camry hybrid already had its first battery replacement before you bought it otherwise it doesn't seem feasible it would be at 84% capacity when it was 8-9 years old when you bought it. DCT transmissions also to be avoided, if possible, in my opinion. Lot of taxi drivers use those Camry hybrids so maybe they really are pretty efficient?
Anyway...back to Turners. I did a small top-up today. Still trades cum the 6 cents fully imputed FY24 Q1 dividend. Ex date is 10 October.
Quote from: Basil on Sep 26, 2023, 05:57 PMYeap, CVT's another ticking time bomb in a lot of vehicles, not just hybrids. Hate the things and to be avoided if possible. I think it's likely your Camry hybrid already had its first battery replacement before you bought it otherwise it doesn't seem feasible it would be at 84% capacity when it was 8-9 years old when you bought it. DCT transmissions also to be avoided, if possible, in my opinion. Lot of taxi drivers use those Camry hybrids so maybe they really are pretty efficient?
Anyway...back to Turners. I did a small top-up today. Still trades cum the 6 cents fully imputed FY24 Q1 dividend. Ex date is 10 October.
It had done about 75000ks when I got it. Yep, it's already been nicknamed the "uber" car. I did figure that if so many are Taxis it's probably a good sign.
Typically, I bought Turners on the way up, so am still down on the deal (not by much). Will probably drop a few if they get into NZX50 and do a climb later this year. They are one of my larger holdings (I'm not a big scale investor though).
Quote from: Basil on Sep 26, 2023, 03:59 PMI think that sum's it up quite nicely in many cases but I think there's widespread ignorance about the issues I talked about earlier today. I feel for families struggling to afford the basics with cost of living who buy an imported used hybrid vehicle thinking that's going to help them and then find themselves getting "king hit" with a completely unexpected $8,000 hybrid battery replacement bill they have no hope of being able to afford.
True, but lets face it - if a buyer these days does not know that they need to replace an EV battery every 8 to 10 years (and that this is expensive), than they clearly didn't do their research. So, my sympathy for them would be limited.
We bought our KIA Sportage Diesel (good car, btw) around the same time as you bought yours and I had at that stage as well a hybrid on the shortlist. Of course did I add the cost for a new battery to the required budget (and yes, the Diesel did win).
I wonder if replacement batteries will half in price over the next decade.?
Quote from: lorraina on Sep 27, 2023, 10:28 AMI wonder if replacement batteries will half in price over the next decade.?
Assuming the electrification of our car fleet continues, they probably will. But the discussion was more about the first pack you have to pay for soon after buying a cheap 8 yr old hybrid (or EV). Does not help if its cheaper in 10 years ...
Correct,but helps me in my choice of next vehicle,which at this stage is either a Toyota or Suzuki hybrid.
Leaning towards the Suzuki as Hollands Suzuki are only a short distance from where I live.
Just have to get my 75 year old driver's licence first.?
We considered the then new Suzuki Swift hybrid in 2020 to replace an existing Swift as a runabout. But I recall being a bit underwhelmed by the hybrid performance in the sense that the advantages gained were not particularly remarkable, or perhaps I should say not at great as I had hoped.
In any case; moved on....kept our existing Swift for a while and it is still going strong being used by another family member.
The Turners subscription model is interesting. May be useful for when one needs an additional vehicle for a short term.
Thanks for your post.
Two years ago I did some research on hybrid Suzuki and Toyota.
The Toyota was far superior,however you had to pay a lot extra for it.
The beauty with Hollands Suzuki is you receive 5 years free service including, free tyres.Only pay for petrol,insurance and registration.
I have been hopeful Suzuki may have improved their Hybrid,as I have been in no hurry to buy another vehicle.
The Nissan is going well and is still in excellent order having travelled under 80,000 klm,but will be 20 years old next year..
The Suzuki system is very similar to early Honda Civic hybrid systems. It's an integrated motor assist which adds a small boost to the engine at times and collects energy going down hills with regenerative braking. It won't be all that much use on the super flat Christchurch area.
Suzuki are built to a very tight budget in India. They're very basic cars for people to get from A to B.
Deep down inside, you know you really want a Jaguar before you are too old to enjoy one ;)
Anyway back to Turners. 6 trading days before they go ex the 6 cent fully imputed Q1 dividend. 2 months to the day when its highly likely it will be announced they are joining the NZX50.
Jaguar.Another fine Indian car...lol.
Lots of buy pressure and no sellers = up 9c on the day. Bodes well for holders.
Quote from: Basil on Sep 15, 2023, 10:19 AMhttp://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/418266/403026.pdf
70% of that at a very low margin. Presume ND means not disclosed and will be at a higher margin.
I continue to believe there is a very good chance for NZX50 inclusion with the December rebalance and that could lead to a 0-25% increase in the share price that could be temporary or otherwise. More importantly I believe the business is in very good shape and well placed to grow in the years ahead and at around $3.50 is trading on compelling metrics of forward PE ~ 9 and gross yield based on 25 cps fully imputed, (my estimate) 9.9%. Additionally, it presently trades cum a 6 cent fully imputed dividend. Back that out as a return of capital and the gross forecast yield becomes 34.72 cps gross / $3.44 = 10.09%, (10.3% if you take the advantage of the 2% discounted DRP). I think the prospects for dividend growth in the years ahead are also very good.
Disc: My #1 investment position on the NZX.
Yes have to agree with you on that. But am a wee bit nervous buying in over $3.80. seeing what happened to HLG the week following NZX inclusion, dropping about a $1 with all the traders racing for the exit to make the quick buck. You got to be fast...The Quick and the Dead. But in saying that, TRA is a good company for long term holders. And good luck to those who got in at 3.20 to 3.40 or at a lower price. Will have to agree with you again on HLG sp, being good buying in again at around $5.40 if other investors let it get down to that price with a 24c div on the horizon. So I will stay on the sideline for now with TRA and will be a lot of fun watching the before and after NZX inclusion and waiting for the dust to settle before and if I decide to buy in.
yes great company in an old Banger (car) economy... is that the right spelling as havnt used that word ever before..
Quote from: seaweed on Oct 04, 2023, 06:55 AMYes have to agree with you on that. But am a wee bit nervous buying in over $3.80. seeing what happened to HLG the week following NZX inclusion, dropping about a $1 with all the traders racing for the exit to make the quick buck. You got to be fast...The Quick and the Dead. But in saying that, TRA is a good company for long term holders. And good luck to those who got in at 3.20 to 3.40 or at a lower price. Will have to agree with you again on HLG sp, being good buying in again at around $5.40 if other investors let it get down to that price with a 24c div on the horizon. So I will stay on the sideline for now with TRA and will be a lot of fun watching the before and after NZX inclusion and waiting for the dust to settle before and if I decide to buy in.
It's a shame you didn't action a buy in in mid Sept with the shares in the mid $3's. Index inclusion thing has been well discussed already but its worth noting that when HLG was included the share price really didn't hit the afterburner until a month before it happened so I reckon there's still plenty of juice to come this year. In terms of TA the chart shows it in the nice uptrend for some time now and trading well north of its 200 day MA in what's been a very soggy market so that's very encouraging. TRA shares have been $4.60 before in early 2022 and traded on a forward PE of 12.7 at the time. Apply that same PE to this years estimated record earnings of say 40 cps and that's $5.08...can't happen some might say but who knows, maybe it might on index inclusion in December ?
TRA have shown steady earnings growth over the years and I think they have a cohesive, well-constructed plan to grow going forward. Their well-articulated target of $50m before tax, either next year (FY25), or FY26 looks highly likely to happen to me and would represent eps of just on 42 cps. By then we will hopefully be seeing interest rates coming down off their peak and TRA will have tailwinds from funding their loan book, (lending at higher rates) being funded by more moderate interest costs.
EPS to the best of my recollection has grown at a CAGR of about 4% over many years and I think in normal times that commands a fair PE of 12, perhaps 13 if the 10 year Govt stock reverts to more moderate level's. Sticking with 12 on eps of 42 cps when they make $50m before tax that's 12 x 42 = $5.04. I think its going to $5 sooner or later, just a matter of time. In the meantime, there's the superb yield to enjoy and the excitement of likely index inclusion. But if it's not for you that's fine mate. I'm not here to sell it to anyone...just sharing my thoughts and enjoying good banter. Who knows what the future is, but I do like to try and play out how I think things will go and take positions on that based on my best estimates. Let me put it this way, this is not my #1 NZX position without solid reasons including superb management and brilliant marketing.
Great post.
I'm quite bullish on TRA. Should there be a further dip in the international markets (read S&P) during the next month or so it may present a further buying opportunity if our favourite stocks follow. If not, I am still content with what I have.
Yes OMP!!!!
one of the best posts yet from the Sir B!!!
DISC: will bet on anything , Horse, DOG or stock that makes a profit... and the next big stock might just be RM in germany...
OMG - all the experts agree - must be either a no-brainer or alternatively one of these "run for the hills" events?
But anyway, I am holding them as well and agree that I still expect them to further rise (and not just because of an arbitrary index inclusion).
TRA has (at SP=3.87) in my books a forward PE of 9.6 and this comes with a 3 yrs forward earnings CAGR of still nearly 7 (10 yrs backward CAGR 12.9). Obviously - analysts (who provided the forecasts) are as often wrong about the future as they are right :p ;
Still - while nobody knows the future, Turners proved to be so far amazingly resilient in bad times ... which I take as good sign for the future :) ;
Quote from: BlackPeter on Oct 06, 2023, 12:56 PMOMG - all the experts agree - must be either a no-brainer or alternatively one of these "run for the hills" events?
But anyway, I am holding them as well and agree that I still expect them to further rise (and not just because of an arbitrary index inclusion).
TRA has (at SP=3.87) in my books a forward PE of 9.6 and this comes with a 3 yrs forward earnings CAGR of still nearly 7 (10 yrs backward CAGR 12.9). Obviously - analysts (who provided the forecasts) are as often wrong about the future as they are right :p ;
Still - while nobody knows the future, Turners proved to be so far amazingly resilient in bad times ... which I take as good sign for the future :) ;
Yes BP ...one of the best prospects (possibly the best) on the NZX at the moment
Apologies, I had another look at the CAGR in eps in the last 5 years and its 7%, (not the 4% I posted above).
Working off the eps figures off Jarden's site its a fraction higher than that for the last 10 years.
My yardstick for finding cheap GARP stocks is No growth PE of 8.5 (Ben Graham when 10 year risk free rate is 4%), adjust for current 10 year rate of 5.5% suggests a no growth stock has a baseline fair PE of 7.5 at present + 1g, (not the 2g Ben Graham uses) where g is the average CAGR in eps, so 7.5 + 7 = 14.5.
I then apply this to forward eps estimate not backward Ben uses. Based on this well proven formula to screen good value GARP stocks, TRA would be good value at 14.5 x 40 cents = $5.80.
I think the business has been incredibly resilient during Covid and during this cost-of-living crisis. In better times in the years ahead, who knows where it will end up but give this plenty of time and who knows, maybe somewhere in that ballpark is not out of the question? Happy to hold in the years ahead and see how this all pans out.
Hey Basil ....Ben Graham would be dismayed with you using the past EPS CAGR rate as he said g is future CAGR growth
Never mind .....TRA might do as well over the next 5 years as the last 5
On your version of that formula at current price implied future growth is 2.5% pa
Yeah I'm just looking at historical CAGR in eps to get a handle on likely future growth.
I think 5% per annum for the next couple of years as they deal with the headwinds and then coming back off the high's in interest rates growth will revert to the previous average trend of 7% per annum over time, perhaps with a couple of 10%'s thrown in there when they get tailwinds from falling rates.
Shares look like a classic really good value GARP stock to me no matter how you slice and dice it.
pastels ... winner hasnt got one on this stock?
picture of CIGAR...
Turners market report shows number of Dealer to Public transactions in September were down 2% on last year
Things might be slowing down
Quote from: Basil on Oct 06, 2023, 05:03 PMYeah I'm just looking at historical CAGR in eps to get a handle on likely future growth.
I think 5% per annum for the next couple of years as they deal with the headwinds and then coming back off the high's in interest rates growth will revert to the previous average trend of 7% per annum over time, perhaps with a couple of 10%'s thrown in there when they get tailwinds from falling rates.
Shares look like a classic really good value GARP stock to me no matter how you slice and dice it.
Have some waltz but won't put them up as some of lines a bit lumpy and could be at odds with what is being said here
thinking the NZ market is not a growth market ... and if this is a growth stock ? well it is dominate and well run...
JOB market holding up in US and rates wont be coming down any time soon...
Quote from: Waltzing on Oct 07, 2023, 09:41 AMthinking the NZ market is not a growth market ... and if this is a growth stock ? well it is dominate and well run...
JOB market holding up in US and rates wont be coming down any time soon...
Like your chart you posted yesterday waltz ...quite cool
TRA's EPS trends is it
NZX50 inclusion could see TRA share price go to $5 plus ....if HLG experience anything to go buy
Take into account it'll probably be over $4 before the announcement
No winner thats the CIGAR chart from an investor site for people who want to know which button to press on DA calculator for that fancy growth formula from MR B G H..
BGH.... Ben G....
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Graham_formula
Quote from: winner (n) on Oct 08, 2023, 08:29 AMNZX50 inclusion could see TRA share price go to $5 plus ....if HLG experience anything to go buy
Take into account it'll probably be over $4 before the announcement
Seems you need to read the footnotes of Bens book to learn its just a guess
Quote from: winner (n) on Oct 08, 2023, 08:29 AMNZX50 inclusion could see TRA share price go to $5 plus ....if HLG experience anything to go buy
Take into account it'll probably be over $4 before the announcement
Agreed. HLG's index inclusion was good for 28% juice to the upside. I think my good mate Seaweed is going to be licking his wounds if he misses out on $5 this summer. Going to have a $5 Turners celebration party on my boat this summer so my mates can toast their success in style. You're very welcome to come along and join in the fun mate. 👍
yes but what about the rest of the NZX?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/stand-off-why-the-nzx-may-be-next-in-line-for-double-digit-correction/UUZJJWA5AJEVZIG6A6BWFCMZAI/
Does one stock a summer make!!!!
Quote from: Waltzing on Oct 09, 2023, 10:30 AMyes but what about the rest of the NZX?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/stand-off-why-the-nzx-may-be-next-in-line-for-double-digit-correction/UUZJJWA5AJEVZIG6A6BWFCMZAI/
Does one stock a summer make!!!!
Mmh - just wondering how good ForBars record is in predicting share price movements?
oh no sky's falling !!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e-U2NguwMmc
Last year H1 npbt was $23.4m....this year $25m plus
That's pretty good .....amazing really
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/419682/404766.pdf
Cant be right... an OP Shop company business selling old bangers is the market leader and now get all the attention here when on the forums a few years ago it was all retirement property development....
it is truly amazing ...
but technology is the future and energy is the new frontier to power economies... wind powered cars? will the new nuclear powered rocket in the land of the EVIL empire mean nuclear powered cars anytime soon?
but of course nuclear power is banned in NZ...
can we turn this thead is a complete mess...
ok we will need a comprehensive data set for this stock as it become the new market darling ...
but wait there is more... its got a loan book... AAA plus over old bangers!!!
really its is truly AMAZING!!
Measured in the context of a very weak economy, a cost-of-living crisis, very weak retail, a very weak sharemarket and very strong headwinds on finance margins this really is a very, very encouraging update.
Once we get through the current headwinds, with their future branch expansion, increasing market share, normalized finance margins and normal economic conditions, oh my goodness we are set for some great years ahead.
sell side is almost empty...
hens teeth...
would someone sell some ....
hiding like Kiwis in the BUSH...
Why would anyone in their right mind sell this, given pending NZX50 inclusion will probably be confirmed less than 2 months away by S&P indices on Saturday 2 December our time? The more important thing is the metrics. Still only on a froward PE of only 10 @$4 for a company with a decade long history of growing earnings at a CAGR of 7%! That PE makes no sense to me and hasn't for quite some time, hence backing up the truck some time ago.
The real risk here for those like me already very well positioned is selling too cheaply. As I see it the intrinsic value of a stock that's proven to be this resilient and has a CAGR of 7% is its worth a PE of 14.5 (no growth PE of 7.5 + 7) so on 40 cps that's $5.80. Never sell high quality growth stocks on compelling fundamentals too cheaply is how I see it.
Gone ex-dividend today and stock has gone UP 19c! Remarkable. Basil and Winner have called it bang on again.
Share price on way to 5 bucks
Todd seduced the market again with a good rave
Todd Hunter, Aaron Saunders and Greg Hedgepath...are almost a dream team. All Bachelor of Commerce graduates from the best University, Auckland, (no bias here on my part that's well known in academic circles), all with vast industry experience mixed in with brilliant marketing from Tina which they created in tandem with Grant Baker...gosh there's a lot to like.
Up 28 cps now including the 6-cps dividend it shed and fully deserves to be on that strong trading update. Like Winner said, it's on its way to $5+
Really pleased I am fully subscribed to the dividend reinvestment plan so I can get some more at a 2% discount to the average price over the next 5 trading days. Its been my #1 NZX position for some time now but I still feel the metrics are truly compelling and I don't have enough shares.
Quote from: Waltzing on Oct 10, 2023, 09:07 AMCant be right... an OP Shop company business selling old bangers is the market leader and now get all the attention here when on the forums a few years ago it was all retirement property development....
it is truly amazing ...
but technology is the future and energy is the new frontier to power economies... wind powered cars? will the new nuclear powered rocket in the land of the EVIL empire mean nuclear powered cars anytime soon?
but of course nuclear power is banned in NZ...
can we turn this thead is a complete mess...
ok we will need a comprehensive data set for this stock as it become the new market darling ...
but wait there is more... its got a loan book... AAA plus over old bangers!!!
really its is truly AMAZING!!
You are right - a second hand car dealership being the star of the NZX says a lot about the NZ industry.
And your point re retirement villages should provide some food for thoughts.
But still - Turners currently looks really good - and I guess same as with the retirement villages you mentioned - the trick might be to time entry and exit appropriately.
train is leaving the station .. ahhh UTE... leaving the car yaaard...
its a finance company... ok what percentage is cash and what percentage is ...
gosh.... only a beagle would have been out in the fields hunting down a baaaarrrrr GA while the world went wild on AI...
Wasn't anything new in that announcement today ...but it's done the trick ..pretty amazing
What'll happen when early next year they say F24 npbt is about $50m ......a year earlier than what they said
what new its marked price sensitive and any news will require a farther update and brokers will upgrade forecast and recommendations...
dat what new ... brokers will be updating models if day got them..
and someone is selling ... who DAT BUYING !!!
Anyone listing at 500 yet?
being talked up on the other channel..
whos selling ? looks like there a quite a few for sale here ....
Very good buying in the low $4's for anyone not already well positioned in my opinion.
the 10000 buyer has just moved down to 3.90 .. from 400
Ok all you RAMPERS!!!!
the lesson is "DONT BUY ON GOOD NEWS!!!"
now 390 looks good buying..
Probably some dog who has plenty already so is content to try and nick some more at $3.90 ;)
Out to be had up for stealing if he gets them there.
Turners presenting at tomorrow's virtual investor day event, register here, kicks off at 11.00 a.m. (Doggy likes those sort of Gentleman's hours as he's usually wider awake and sniffing for food by then). https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/9078714122146731865
someone sold 25 at 405... insanity ... must have bought in the BIG sell off in 2020...
insto's will be starting to sharpen the pencils..
its better than watching the paint dry...
the LOWS in 3 years time could be 5...look at the chart ...
Quote from: winner (n) on Oct 10, 2023, 11:25 AMWhat'll happen when early next year they say F24 npbt is about $50m ......a year earlier than what they said
2 years earlier than the market is currently expecting....(brokers are currently picking ~ $50m before tax for FY26). Thing is, if they can perform like this with strong economic and cost of finance headwinds how well will they perform in better times with finance book tailwinds?...that's something to ponder...
I think the key here is net profit before tax of
at least $25m for this half and that's with an overall very weak vehicle market in the first quarter, (you have the stat's). Gosh they must be "killing it" with market share gains...
Big day December 2nd ......not that many sleeps to go
Good VOL today ... high of 6.50 to 7 in next 2 years?
when those rates start to drop ...
and Farmer JIM , the great Helmsman says there is nothing to worry about .. it will all be good..
Quote from: Waltzing on Oct 10, 2023, 05:23 PMGood VOL today ... high of 6.50 to 7 in next 2 years?
when those rates start to drop ...
and Farmer JIM , the great Helmsman says there is nothing to worry about .. it will all be good..
Headlights on full beam and looking further out, I think it's quite plausible they could do ~ $60m NPBT in 2-3 years' time, giving about 50cps. Put a fair PE of 14 on it as the proven growth stock it is and yeah, that's $7. As I see it the risk is selling it too cheaply on index inclusion at about $5 - $5.50, taking the sugar hit of a quick gain but missing out on future years growth. I'll be sure to be on guard against that. Sugar hits are no good for me, or so my doctor says lol
HLG still holding 6 and not giving a buy back in chance ... maybe this one wont either..
As rates come down the market will power up again selling now at peek rates might be something one comes to regret...
ARG and GMT may be stocks that can traded but this does not appear to be cyclical.
Quote from: Basil on Oct 08, 2023, 10:53 AMAgreed. HLG's index inclusion was good for 28% juice to the upside. I think my good mate Seaweed is going to be licking his wounds if he misses out on $5 this summer. Going to have a $5 Turners celebration party on my boat this summer so my mates can toast their success in style. You're very welcome to come along and join in the fun mate. 👍
Ok you twisted my arm and had my order in last Monday. But still got a lot of HLG in the green and can't resist the 24c div coming up.
Todd Hunter will be speaking at 11 am today on
NZX Virtual Investor Event | 11 October 2023
Quote from: lorraina on Oct 11, 2023, 07:47 AMTodd Hunter will be speaking at 11 am today on
NZX Virtual Investor Event | 11 October 2023
Don't miss out
https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/9078714122146731865
Short term take on TRA.
TRA_2023-10-11_09-35-05.png
Nice chart Cod
I reckon TRA will reach 5 bucks before 2cheap reaches a buck
TRA's interim was announced on 22nd November last year, while 2CC's was on the 29th November.
Both strong runners.
Neck and neck,stide for stride,for their target prices.
A photo finish.?
Quote from: seaweed on Oct 11, 2023, 05:11 AMOk you twisted my arm and had my order in last Monday. But still got a lot of HLG in the green and can't resist the 24c div coming up.
Welcome aboard mate.
Excellent presentation. Really good to refresh my memory on all the new branches they have in the pipeline.
Great to see loan arrears tracking well below pre Covid 19 level's and the quality of their loan book really improving.
A very well managed business with an exciting future ahead of it.
As always Todd Hunter presents well.
Auto retail growing both number of branches and market share.
Timaru new branch looks the goods, and will open shortly.More branches in Christchurch too.
All divisions operating well.Lower interest rates will benefit their Oxford finance.Dividend growth continues.
NZX 50 inclusion looks close.
Good he kept pushing the nZX50 inclusion
Possibly has some 'inside info'
Yes...Doubling their market share in the last 5 years has been very impressive.
Rod Duke built an empire off the back of excellent marketing with "Tammy"
Turners following suit with "Tina"
P.S. Winner I have seen the Forbar free float list...and unless barring a new float on the market of such a size that confers automatic index inclusion, it seems certain PEB and Synlait will exit the NZX50 in December to be replaced with GTX and TRA. I am sure Todd has seen that research as well.
And to think I thought it was the Liam Lawson affect...lol
Quote from: Basil on Oct 10, 2023, 04:07 PM2 years earlier than the market is currently expecting....(brokers are currently picking ~ $50m before tax for FY26). Thing is, if they can perform like this with strong economic and cost of finance headwinds how well will they perform in better times with finance book tailwinds?...that's something to ponder...
I think the key here is net profit before tax of at least $25m for this half and that's with an overall very weak vehicle market in the first quarter, (you have the stat's). Gosh they must be "killing it" with market share gains...
True - but don't forget, you are at the same time betting on NZ economy staying third world. I would not be able to name one first world country where a second hand car dealer is able to become the star of the share market.
In first world countries it might be as well the car industry shining, but if it is, its for selling new cars :) ;
Discl: holding as well and enjoying the ride, but not sure, what it says about the country we live in :'( ;
Quote from: BlackPeter on Oct 11, 2023, 12:53 PMTrue - but don't forget, you are at the same time betting on NZ economy staying third world. I would not be able to name one first world country where a second hand car dealer is able to become the star of the share market.
In first world countries it might be as well the car industry shining, but if it is, its for selling new cars :) ;
Discl: holding as well and enjoying the ride, but not sure, what it says about the country we live in :'( ;
It says we are a housing market with an economy tacked on the side.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/419803/404934.pdf
so much for sub 400
.......
Come people party in the streets that was a pretty good day...
The Market listening to MR B , surprised Mr P hasnt been on doing a victory lap as this was one of his picks a while back..
Some people really know there local market... and that is not US... but well done to the locals..
You're far too kind mate, I think the market was actually listening to Todd Hunter :)
What's not in the market fully yet by any means is this is a growth company that should command a commensurate PE in the early-mid teens. That will come with time. While we all know on here and the other channel this is a highly likely for NZX50 inclusion in December, it's not official until it's announced on 2 December so that's something else the market as a whole will only wake up to properly after the confirmation and index tracking funds are compelled to buy.
A lot of happy days ahead for shareholders and it's still dirt cheap for a growth company on a forward PE of only 10.5. I'm really looking forward to the $5 party.
2 year above the 10...
by end of summer 2024 inflation in the US could be down and NZX might be starting to show signs of life...
its in A&E at the moment...
High of 4.24... for this year... similar spike to april/may 2021
but rampers and others before this goes silly the DIV will have to increase by a fair bit to get a 6 dollar stock...
and that is not certain ... over priced and over hyped?
is fair value 3.90... with the risk free rate where it is...
orders moving up 10 cents... 390 no longer supported...
I see that that Barramundi fund has carsales.com has one of it biggest holdings ........now know why Basil is quite keen on BRM
Carsales seem to be performing quite well ....share price chart looks healthy ....price at all time high year
Trades at a PE of 16 ....jeez same multiple for TRA would be about $6.50
Don't think there's much chance of getting any more under $4. I'd be rapt to get more at $4.10
Quote from: Basil on Oct 12, 2023, 03:12 PMDon't think there's much chance of getting any more under $4. I'd be rapt to get more at $4.10
Yep, I think that ship has sailed Basil. Seems like a lot more people are aware of the possible/likely NZX50 inclusion this time around. The HLG experience has motivated buyers to get in even earlier - 70c in the last month.
Seems a cert to get to $5 once the institutions rebalance post NZX50 inclusion. I can't see that not happening now that the SP has rocketed unless, as noted, something comes out of left field, and fast.
Some good insights shared by Todd on the other channel below.
Disc: I bought a few more shares today.
QuoteThat is great to hear Norwest...I hope your visit was successful for you and for Turners!
Our Christchurch branch expansion is very much around our vehicle sourcing strategy.
The closer our branches are to customers the more vehicles we are able to buy.
The more vehicles we buy the more we are able to sell.
Our branch network is strategically way more important on the vehicle sourcing side of our business than the selling side in many respects. When people are looking to sell a car they are effectively buying a service off us...and consequently it needs to be convenient. When people are buying a car they will actually travel a long way to get the right car at the right price.
Our Hagley Park location is the last of our old auction configured locations. 28,000m2 site with a big warehouse. We now prefer ~10,000m2 sites, easier to manage, not as overwhelming for customers, we can have more of these located closer to our customers, and 10,000m2 sites are much easier to find and less expensive than the big sites with big warehouses.
The two years will come around quick Black Peter!
Hopefully that makes sense.
I also wanted to offer the sharetrader Turners forum a Q&A with Aaron Saunders and myself. Not sure if that would be of interest? Please let me know if it is and I will schedule something in. We would run it online at around 530pm one evening. Todd Hunter
skyward sarcastic stochastic still going up...
From the gossip column in BusinessDesk. Seems worth while pumping miei cash into supporting our Liam.
Turners Automotive Group chief executive Todd Hunter points out that "humble" NZ racing driver Liam Lawson doesn't have a daddy to buy him a Formula 1 team.
Instead, he has been lending his star power to Turners when he's in the country, appearing with its own TV star, Tina, on social media.
Lawson, who has been filling in for Aussie driver Daniel Ricciardo, has some loyal NZ backers, including Turners and Giltrap Group.
Hunter says Lawson is an understated winner, and the car company's association with the driver is a "dream come true". If Lawson does get a full-time seat in Formula 1, keeping the sponsorship going could be tricky,
Hunter says. However, he says Lawson and his team (yep, the 21-year-old has a team) are very conscious of repaying that support. "He's had some supporters, and he wants to be able to repay that royalty, which is great.
So hopefully, hopefully, we can keep sponsoring." Hunter says Lawson has fought his way to the top on his own merits, and Turners will be there for the long haul, backing the NZ driver with cold hard cash. "He's incredibly driven, and he's never taken for granted the kind of opportunity that he's got. He's a great person."
DRP at $4.09
Who would have believed that a few weeks ago
While I'm on the whole what marketing works and what marketing sponsorship maybe doesn't thematic this morning...Great question to ask Todd at the forthcoming online Q&A 5.30p.m. 27 November, (see other channel for Todd's announcement of this). is this. With the multi award winning well proven and truly brilliant "Tina" marketing campaign generating such incredible market share gains, what value does Liam bring to the Turners brand ? How is promotion of what many see as an elitest sport (Formula 1) consistent with Turners value brand ? Wouldn't this sponsorship money be better directed at what is arguably a massively successful campaign with Tina and getting her out there even more given that customers obviously find her eminently relatable ?
In the meantime, more shares at $4.09, (very nice indeed), for those with the foresight to be subscribed to the dividend reinvestment plan. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/420107/405281.pdf
The NZ motor industry employs a very large number of people,a great number of whom are "car bugs" ,who enjoy motor sport.
In fact Turners' chairman Grant Baker is such a person.
These people who work in the sector, often trade with Turners,buying or selling to them,or just recommending them to people who want to buy/sell a car.
All NZ see Turners helping Liam Lawson,and are proud to deal with Turners because of it..
From Tod 30/8 at another place (my emphasis)
"We are very excited to see Liam fulfil his lifelong goal of racing in F1. This guy is a winner. Comes from a very humble background and is very understated, but has an absolute drive and steel to achieve. We have continued to support Liam since his F4 days more recently in a pretty minor way financially.
Tina and Liam did some co-lab earlier this year... https://www.tiktok.com/@turnerscarsn...92571940457730
Unsurprisingly we are giving this a bit more airtime this week and next with Liam racing in Italy at Monza this weekend. We are very excited about his prospects (touch wood) given his strong performance last weekend in the Netherlands. Go Liam!"
warning... when charts go vertical .....
Quote from: Waltzing on Oct 17, 2023, 10:49 AMwarning... when charts go vertical .....
Turners was $4.60 at the start of 2022 and closed out the year at around the $3.20 level, a loss of ~ 30%. I think it's easy to make the case the market simply got this wrong last year and didn't used to understand or didn't believe in the resiliency of their business model in tougher economic times.
I think their resilience is plain for all to see now and we will revert to the previous price pretty soon + whatever else for growth in eps since then, a better outlook going forward given we're part way through tougher times now, plus of course probable NZX50 index inclusion. I'm not sure how others feel but I'm very impressed with how well the business model is performing despite very strong headwinds from cost of finance and cost of living pressures.
Thanks guys, appreciate your thoughts on Liam's sponsorship.
Npbt 25m plus in first half of F24 .....add H223 of 22.1m you get about 48m for last 12 month period
You'd think H224 is better than the H223 ...growth company eh .......so it would be disappointing if they don't signal FY24 npbt of about $50m when do announce things in November
Good eh
Yeap, looking really good to join the 50 club in more than one way !
$50m before tax and NZX50.
Well yes .... BUT!!!
the OCR is higher now and unless they increase the DIV...
but perhaps not over valued in the longer term...
I've been working on the basis that they make 40 cps this year so at $4.25 it's on a FY24 PE of 10.6.
But I think there's a good chance as Winner has suggested that when they report half year results late next month, they upgrade guidance to $50m before tax this year, a year or two earlier than originally forecast.
If so and assuming full tax $50m before tax is $36m after tax and on the recently increased number of shares after the most recent dividend paid, 87.366m shares on issue that's 41.2 cps (9.3% up on last year's 37.7 cps). At the midpoint of their dividend guidance range of 60-70%, 65% of that is 26.78 cps so the chances of an upgrade to dividend guidance, (current indication is 24 cps) also cannot be overlooked.
$4.25 / 0.412 = FY24 PE of only 10.3. One might like to ponder what the forward PE is on FY26's earnings when hopefully they start to get tailwinds from a declining interest rate cycle and better economic times.
Forward PE of only 10.3 seems like incredibly good value to me for a company that's grown eps at an average compound rate of 7% in the last decade. I'd normally say a company like that is very good value at a forward PE of 14.5 with interest rates where they currently sit or 15.5 if the 10 year Govt stock rate declines to 4% in due course.
The ANATLANDERS are going to build more roads and 100,000 budding ANATLANDERS will need to move about and the most likely shareholders that will benefit will be heard chanting "Cars CARS CARS!"
The new ANATLANDERS to be will have left their LADAS, VOX BUGS, motor bikes and Dog Teams behind....
its obvious that any stock that sells cars... any kind of old bangers could be a WINNER!!!
6 weeks to index inclusion
Exciting
I keep hoping that all the bad luck and ill fortune that Grant Baker is having over at MEE doesn't spread to Turners
With Todd and Aaron running the business, together with a strong board you fears are unwarranted.
Every successful business man makes a mistake,otherwise they are not trying hard enough,but I do wonder how he got the honey deal so wrong.
No question the C Suite including Greg Hedgepth are doing a fabulous job managing the business, but credit must be given to the creation of the Tina marketing personality that's been transformational in terms of gaining market share, (doubled in the last 5 years). Credit must be given to board member John Roberts (ex Saatchi and Saatchi CEO) and his friend Kim Thorpe (previously no less than Saatchi and Saatchi worldwide creative director).
Moral of the story, it pays to have friends in high places! You can read all about how this truly brilliant campaign came about on page 26 of the 2023 annual report here http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/413843/397411.pdf
I really don't think the market has woken up to the ongoing growth "Tina" will confer in the years ahead. I believe her highly relatable and positive personality will be hugely successful for Turners over the long term in the same way Tammy has been for Briscoes. I have always believed this right from the start and strongly encouraged Todd Hunter to get our star locked in on a long-term contract so she can become the face of the company going forward.
With SNAP ON at a P/E of 12 why are NZ stocks like TRA so cheap?
Sir B has highlighted the P/E on this stock before and could it be that the NZX under the last government has been hammered and the NZ market is a BUY.
Notice that for the last 2 terms nothing was done to expand the local capital markets...
Quote from: Basil on Oct 20, 2023, 06:38 PMI really don't think the market has woken up to the ongoing growth "Tina" will confer in the years ahead. I believe her highly relatable and positive personality will be hugely successful for Turners over the long term in the same way Tammy has been for Briscoes. I have always believed this right from the start and strongly encouraged Todd Hunter to get our star locked in on a long-term contract so she can become the face of the company going forward.
I don't think it's likely that the multi-talented (https://thespinoff.co.nz/pop-culture/05-06-2023/no-tina-from-turners-didnt-die) Sieni Leo'o Olo's ambitions are to be pigeon-holed into a advertisement character :P
The metrics of her impact are impressive thou' - the company say that the success of the $300,000 ad campaign meant that the cost of it was
paid off within one month!.
Quote from: Waltzing on Oct 21, 2023, 08:31 AMWith SNAP ON at a P/E of 12 why are NZ stocks like TRA so cheap?
Sir B has highlighted the P/E on this stock before and could it be that the NZX under the last government has been hammered and the NZ market is a BUY.
Notice that for the last 2 terms nothing was done to expand the local capital markets...
Turners PE is comparable to ASX
Eagers Auto (APE) is on 13. ASX auto sector average is 9
Interesting comparison, thanks.
APE has had declining earnings for the last 2 years and according to an average of 15 analysts is forecast to have declining earnings in the next 2 years https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/EAGERS-AUTOMOTIVE-LIMITED-6492637/finances/
By comparison TRA have had a CAGR in eps of 7% for the last decade and are forecasting further growth. I think its fair to say one of these business's has proved more reslient in challanging economic conditions 😉
A few years when talking about the "Roadmap to $5" Todd noted that a PE of 14 was "undemanding"
Jeez ...that would give a share price of about $5.70
Add the index inclusion factor and its 6 bucks ...bring it on
I guess Turners and others are going "gangbusters"selling "clean Cars" before the rebates stop,.
Hope Turners have taken out some insurance in case something unforeseen happens to Tina and she can't do any more stuff for them.
Last time a ANAT LAND GOVT took over under JK they turned the KIWI in to a Tiger...
Can they do it again ...
Quote from: Hectorplains on Oct 21, 2023, 10:14 AMI don't think it's likely that the multi-talented (https://thespinoff.co.nz/pop-culture/05-06-2023/no-tina-from-turners-didnt-die) Sieni Leo'o Olo's ambitions are to be pigeon-holed into a advertisement character :P
..........
So Tina doesn't even work in a Turners car yard .....that's funny .......not as authentic as the Bunnings people in the ads
https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/300990165/do-the-people-in-the-bunnings-ads-really-work-at-bunnings
Quote from: winner (n) on Oct 22, 2023, 07:53 AMSo Tina doesn't even work in a Turners car yard .....that's funny .......not as authentic as the Bunnings people in the ads
https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/300990165/do-the-people-in-the-bunnings-ads-really-work-at-bunnings
Just like Tammy the Briscoes lady, she does not work for them either! (Briscoes that is not Turners, before anyone tries to get smart :) )
Quote from: winner (n) on Oct 22, 2023, 07:53 AMSo Tina doesn't even work in a Turners car yard .....that's funny .......not as authentic as the Bunnings people in the ads
https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/300990165/do-the-people-in-the-bunnings-ads-really-work-at-bunnings
I think it might be a bit of a Wesfarmers thing. I work for another WES division and we only use staff (and sometimes customers staff for RL action shots) in all our catalogues, promo videos, etc.
Best weather ever for travelling this long past long weekend and wonder how many took their brand new bangers out for a tour of tours...
You cant beat that for a fabulous long holiday weekend...
https://sendy.tarawera.co.nz/l/J6oLVth2f3f6IXNYvUBQEg/Wih892J5BbWyZZ6xsaIqDONw/Ese892pFASumdcRGoF8RYvTg
Quote from: lorraina on Oct 24, 2023, 09:24 AMhttps://sendy.tarawera.co.nz/l/J6oLVth2f3f6IXNYvUBQEg/Wih892J5BbWyZZ6xsaIqDONw/Ese892pFASumdcRGoF8RYvTg
The CL8 chart looks pretty sad .....really sad
Agree.
Extremely sad..
They may need Tina to promote the business.?
Was thinking the same lol but they need something tailor made for Australia and our Tina is busy.
Maybe something along these lines https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rn0lwGk4u9o
The punchline could be "I'm Carly, come ride with me"....who could resist lol
Tina (Turner) and Carly (Simon) would make a good pair
What happening here. TRA coming off the boil after such a good run. On the bright side will give others a chance to jump in at a lower price and for holders to top up if they want more.
Quote from: seaweed on Oct 25, 2023, 01:39 PMWhat happening here. TRA coming off the boil after such a good run. On the bright side will give others a chance to jump in at a lower price and for holders to top up if they want more.
Yeah, strange time to sell, but such low volume- it's literally only a handful of people. A good opportunity to buy a few more if you can get them, as you say.
Hopefully hit's 4... but wait someone is waiting there already ...
ANZ Truck o meter ... economy steady as ...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/not-capitulating-anz-truckometer-shows-economy-remains-resilient/MVSH3F5H75CNLIRHOADDAGS4HY/
Look out for a bargain ... could come up for sale soon... anyone seen one of these at a TRA car yard..
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/133175728/190000-car-had-more-than-a-dozen-defects-so-why-wasnt-the-buyer-compensated
or one of these..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hpy5RftME0Y
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M9I7GWllPFY
Hmmmm...I had been toying with the idea of getting an F Pace Jaguar.
Haven't had a single problem with my current vehicle. Why sell something that's working perfectly eh.
One month and one week until NZX50 inclusion is highly likely to be announced. 8)
I agree with you.
Must admit the Nissan is running like a dream.
If you have a good or great car hang onto it.
Just imagine the first year depreciation on a new $190,000 Jaguar. :'(
I'll take a guess at 30%, that's $57,000 depreciation in year 1 !
Pretty much the same with all new high end European cars of a similar value. Effectively you lose $50,000 on the day you take delivery.
I do not have those issues.
I paid $5,500 for the Nissan about 6 years ago.
Guess I would get more for it today.
ps.$190,000 would buy you 240,000 2CC shares.
Dividend would return you $24,000 pa.
Enough to buy a very nice low mileage Nissan. every year.
pps.Money saved on insurance could be recycled into a few more 2cc each year too.
You need 5 years of dividend history as a minimum before making a decent assessment as to the dependability and reliability of same. Turners have a fabulous history of growing dividends over the years.
They did not when I started to invest in them..
I well remember your warnings..
Turners directors and management are very proud indeed of their dividend growth in recent years, mentioned 40% dividend growth in their most recent presentation. Not sure if there are many / any? other companies that have achieved that in recent years.
Bringing forward their half year announcement date to 22 November (can't remember the last time I ever saw a company bringing forward an announcement date),...maybe an indicator of more good news. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/420650/405975.pdf
I expect they are run off their feet selling "clean Cars" before the rebate ends at the end of December.
Activity breeds activity.
I think 2CC are going to benefit more from that with their product mix more tilted that way and most stock coming in from overseas and quite a bit of it eligible for the rebate.
Most of Turners stock is bought locally in no small way assisted by the brilliant "Tina" campaign and the rebate doesn't come into the equation for cars previously, already registered here.
Sounds like LOR should be running a blog on car buying and has not only made money in this share but also on car purchases...
Quote from: Waltzing on Oct 28, 2023, 08:41 AMSounds like LOR should be running a blog on car buying and has not only made money in this share but also on car purchases...
A great talent that LOR
how are car prices holding up?
retail QTR by year end will be intersting but we know Winner() will be all over them stats..
Dont imagine the T car will arrive on an auction lot anytime soon...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/30/tesla-shares-drop-5percent-on-panasonic-battery-warning.html
ever seen a char pointer not get its assigned value?
Oh look MA the auto pilot took us where?
Oh you think RAM is stable all the time ... ooops why did we just drive into that ditch...
Interesting commentary on CNBC this morning that EV sales are really starting to slow.
Working theories include that most early adopters have already bought, and the high up front capital cost is also an issue as is the high cost of finance. Another theory for the slowdown in America that was espoused was that many Americans like their huge pick-up trucks that have poor aerodynamics, (which appears to be way most manufactures have stayed away from producing these sore of EV's due to the limited range with that sort of vehicle).
The risk of fire that's extraordinary difficult to extinguish wasn't mentioned but I can't help feeling this is also an underlying concern especially for those charging in a garage in their home. If there's a fire it's going to burn the whole house down and if you're sleeping in a bedroom positioned close to the garage...
From the UK: Not sure whether it applies here though?
Average electric car insurance costs rose 72 per cent in the year to September, compared with 29 per cent for petrol and diesel models, according to Confused.com. The price comparison site notes that premiums for Tesla Model 3s, the most quoted EV on the site, rose more than two-thirds in the past two years.
EV claims are typically 25 per cent higher than combustion equivalents and take 14 per cent longer for repairs, according to research from Thatcham.
A combination of high costs and volatile outcomes means many EVs are simply being written off for damage that traditional vehicles would survive.
As higher insurance makes EVs less attractive, adoption rates will adjust accordingly.
Looks like also on CNBC was a discussion of powering all the new clean engery and Nuclear came up as the most powerful solution and one wonders how India will cover all those new EV motor bikes and cars they manufacturing....
EV is coming but where is the power going to come from ...
Lot of PE cars still out there and how long is the market going to be able to absorb them.. 5=10 years?
Quote from: Waltzing on Oct 31, 2023, 05:23 PMLooks like also on CNBC was a discussion of powering all the new clean engery and Nuclear came up as the most powerful solution and one wonders how India will cover all those new EV motor bikes and cars they manufacturing....
EV is coming but where is the power going to come from ...
Lot of PE cars still out there and how long is the market going to be able to absorb them.. 5=10 years?
If I correctly remember Indias geography, they have plenty of space in sunfilled areas to mount solar systems, and some parts have as well quite reliable wind (monsoon) to run wind generators. Both sources of energy quite suitable to recharge electric vehicles.
Off TOPIC:
YUP .... lots of spaces out there ... that means laying lots of power lines..
Taking advantage of he last days of the clean car rebate or flood claims.....
"Car sales were surprisingly strong in October. 10,055 new passenger cars were sold in the month, plus 9,657 used imports. Both were sharp increases from August, but the new car sales were -6.6% less than the hot September a year ago. The average for the prior ten years for a September is 9,400 in the month. Used imports were up +33% from the same month a year ago."
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/125035/review-things-you-need-know-you-sign-wednesday-jobless-rate-rises-pay-rates-fsr
One month to the day today, in my opinion there's a 95%+ likelihood it will be announced that TRA are to be included in the NZX50.
Interesting chart ...
Great minds think alike. I was looking at the chart this morning. 30 day MA right on $4.00. If $4.00 holds, (and I think it will), we're still in an unbroken uptrend.
Less than 3 weeks until they report on Wednesday 22 November. Very interesting they brought that reporting date forward 2 days, (never seen that before from any company that I can recall). Is that a sign it's good news ? You be the judge.
chart looks like if inclusion it will spike but then has a BIG back fill ... as GUY A on CNBC would say...
Its still in an unbroken uptrend on the chart and there's the well discussed index inclusion to come but I'm concentrating on the fundamentals. Forward PE at $4.10 is in the low 10's for a company with a CAGR of 7% in eps for the last decade, (faster eps growth since the multi award winning Tina marketing campaign started), and gross yield in the high 8% range. You are being paid handsomely with yield that I am very confident will grow in the years ahead, (dividends have grown 40% in recent years) to enjoy the growth in earnings and dividends in the years ahead.
I think this is a very well-managed company trading on a compelling valuation. A classic GARP company opportunity that's proved it has an extremely robust business model even in exceptionally challenging economic times. I'm really looking forward to seeing how high it flies when economic conditions improve, and the interest rate cycle provides tailwinds to their finance book margins.
It was good to see the largest shareholder took shares in lieu of dividend in the recent dividend. Next dividend is in January.
Disc: Added a few more this morning. My #1 investment position in the market.
Quote from: Basil on Nov 03, 2023, 11:07 AMIts still in an unbroken uptrend on the chart and there's the well discussed index inclusion to come but I'm concentrating on the fundamentals. Forward PE at $4.10 is in the low 10's for a company with a CAGR of 7% in eps for the last decade, (faster eps growth since the multi award winning Tina marketing campaign started), and gross yield in the high 8% range. You are being paid handsomely with yield that I am very confident will grow in the years ahead, (dividends have grown 40% in recent years) to enjoy the growth in earnings and dividends in the years ahead.
I think this is a very well-managed company trading on a compelling valuation. A classic GARP company opportunity that's proved it has an extremely robust business model even in exceptionally challenging economic times. I'm really looking forward to seeing how high it flies when economic conditions improve, and the interest rate cycle provides tailwinds to their finance book margins.
It was good to see the largest shareholder took shares in lieu of dividend in the recent dividend. Next dividend is in January.
Disc: Added a few more this morning. My #1 investment position in the market.
Agree with your thesis Basil and have built a solid holding for long term income and growth. The successful brand campaign should underpin increasing share of sourcing used cars translating to increasing market share in existing locations and the rolling out of new locations in smaller centres/towns is adding new earnings streams. On top of this, as you point out, when the financing margins headwinds change to tailwinds we should see a solid boost to earnings from that important component of the business. With a PE of circa 10-11 there seems to be minimal downside and meaningful upside based on fundamentals driving long term earnings growth aside from the short term boost of likely index inclusion. On this last point, Craig's have this morning added TRA to their Baker's Dozen portfolio which will add support ahead of likely index inclusion "We are ... adding TRA due to the catalyst for TRA in December of expected NZX50 index inclusion.TRA has already started to run ahead of this event but still trades on a PE of 11x and we see it getting squeezed higher on thin liquidity."
Quote from: Mos on Nov 03, 2023, 12:28 PMAgree with your thesis Basil and have built a solid holding for long term income and growth. The successful brand campaign should underpin increasing share of sourcing used cars translating to increasing market share in existing locations and the rolling out of new locations in smaller centres/towns is adding new earnings streams. On top of this, as you point out, when the financing margins headwinds change to tailwinds we should see a solid boost to earnings from that important component of the business. With a PE of circa 10-11 there seems to be minimal downside and meaningful upside based on fundamentals driving long term earnings growth aside from the short term boost of likely index inclusion. On this last point, Craig's have this morning added TRA to their Baker's Dozen portfolio which will add support ahead of likely index inclusion "We are ... adding TRA due to the catalyst for TRA in December of expected NZX50 index inclusion.TRA has already started to run ahead of this event but still trades on a PE of 11x and we see it getting squeezed higher on thin liquidity."
Bakers dozen 😂
Quote from: Crackity on Nov 03, 2023, 12:37 PMBakers dozen 😂
LOL, speaking of the rich and famous and Grant Bakers well known love of Ferrari's I see on CNBC this morning the market cap of RACE (Ferrari's ticker code), exceeds GM or Ford despite them being a niche manufacturer only making 15,000 cars a year! Apparently, they are making massive margins selling limited edition Ferrari's for $4-5m (presume that's $US) to enthusiasts and all production is sold out through to the end of 2025 including for their "regular" models ! Amazingly, this despite well-known high end brands Porsche and Aston Martin recently reporting softening demand.
Meanwhile back in the real world for us mere mortals lol.
Thanks for your comments Mos. Brand campaign's an interesting thing to watch build successfully over the years. Love the way Rod Duke has used Tammy over the years to build brand value with Briscoes. Nothing like a relentlessly positive and highly relatable personality to build brand value over time eh. Bit of humour like Turners construct with their Tina campaign goes a long way too. Right at the start I could see how successful the Tina campaign was going to be so strongly encouraged Todd to lock our star into a long term contract.
P.S. I think they're going to do eps of 39-40 cps this year so on a PE of 11 that's $4.29 - $4.40. Deserves a higher multiple than that in my opinion.
Quote from: Basil on Nov 03, 2023, 01:47 PMLOL, speaking of the rich and famous and Grant Bakers well known love of Ferrari's I see on CNBC this morning the market cap of RACE (Ferrari's ticker code), exceeds GM or Ford despite them being a niche manufacturer only making 15,000 cars a year! Apparently, they are making massive margins selling limited edition Ferrari's for $4-5m (presume that's $US) to enthusiasts and all production is sold out through to the end of 2025 including for their "regular" models ! Amazingly, this despite well-known high end brands Porsche and Aston Martin recently reporting softening demand.
Meanwhile back in the real world for us mere mortals lol.
Thanks for your comments Mos. Brand campaign's an interesting thing to watch build successfully over the years. Love the way Rod Duke has used Tammy over the years to build brand value with Briscoes. Nothing like a relentlessly positive and highly relatable personality to build brand value over time eh. Bit of humour like Turners construct with their Tina campaign goes a long way too. Right at the start I could see how successful the Tina campaign was going to be so strongly encouraged Todd to lock our star into a long term contract.
P.S. I think they're going to do eps of 39-40 cps this year so on a PE of 11 that's $4.29 - $4.40. Deserves a higher multiple than that in my opinion.
Yes I am forecasting similar for full year at 40-41 cps with possible upside. Great business momentum underway which has a high probability of enduring. Good business and well managed.
Is Todd a better CEO than our Jeff ...or is that determinate on prevailing share price
Ferrari margins on new cars is very high.
Yet their margins on parts must be out of this world.Incredibly expensive.
Look at Ratarossa videos on Youtube.
No wonder the price went up today... no chance of sub 4 now...]
2 year chart still shows a possible back fill and them move up.
im sure Carter Braxton Worth would show some the channel it is now in clearly.
I'd be terribly disappointed if they don't come out say F24 npbt is forecast to be greater than $50m
Be a downer, ie performance/results not meeting hype
Todd not hyping anything in my opinion. In summary, what he said was profit is expected to be $25m+, they are expecting another record result in FY24 and that the business was performing really well despite all the headwinds. I think directionally we can all see where this is headed "over time", but we don't want to get ahead of ourselves in terms of expectations.
In my experience it's a very rare thing to see really well managed growth companies on a PE of just over 10.
This would need to really pop quite a lot on index inclusion to tempt me to let any go as I still think this is compelling value where it is. NZX up 3.24% this week, Russel 2000 index of small companies in the US up 7.5% this week...TRA up less than half a percent this week, just an observation.
Quote from: winner (n) on Nov 03, 2023, 04:22 PMIs Todd a better CEO than our Jeff ...or is that determinate on prevailing share price
Absolutely - always is :) ; Remember - there have been even times when Geoffrey and John used to be great CEO's.
Quote from: winner (n) on Nov 03, 2023, 04:22 PMIs Todd a better CEO than our Jeff ...or is that determinate on prevailing share price
I will say this. The amount of ESG nonsense coming out of HGH is nauseating to say the least, whereas Turners keep their ESG enunciations to a very sensible level. How much of HGH's very forthright wokeness is driven by the board or driven by Jeff is debatable.
Quote from: Basil on Nov 04, 2023, 02:02 PMI will say this. The amount of ESG nonsense coming out of HGH is nauseating to say the least, whereas Turners keep their ESG enunciations to a very sensible level. How much of HGH's very forthright wokeness is driven by the board or driven by Jeff is debatable.
I agree that many companies start to discover their ESG consciousness only when they have nothing else positive to talk about, and this clearly would be a good indicator for investors to seek the exit.
On the other hand do I not believe that all ESG is mumbo-jumbo. Clearly - companies need to move towards more sustainable operations, and companies using unbiassed the talents of everybody do have an advantage compared to companies who are so affinity biassed that they (conciously or unconsciously) stick with white cis middle aged males to run the show.
Not quite sure where to put HGH in this story, but at least they are so far long term pretty successful, aren't they?
I think blind opposition to ESG is as dumb as blind support of ESG for ESG sake. Better to find valid criteria to value companies.
Agree with your post BP but unfortunately your first paragraph sums up an all too common theme. I do get it that some people want the products they buy to come from sustainably sourced materials in a fair and ethical way and also get the whole unconscious bias subject but there are many companies using a thick veil of all things ESG to try and mask their woeful financial performance. To be honest I tend to ignore it all now on the basis that the noise around ESG has become so shrill, it's almost always at attempt at obfuscating the real issues.
In regard to HGH, see if you can read you way through their HUGE voluminous 163 page, 13 mm thick annual report, (largest annual report I can ever recall seeing), including all the Te Reo sections and then report back what you think about their ESG ;) I thought about reading it all and then nearly lost the will to live lol Thankfully they have their much more concise investor presentations in plain English and yes they are doing okay, if and only if you accept at face value all their new profit normalization measures. I am not sure I like all their new ways of normalizing their profit.
You don't get any of that nonsense at TRA.
Quote from: lorraina on Nov 03, 2023, 04:26 PMFerrari margins on new cars is very high.
Yet their margins on parts must be out of this world.Incredibly expensive.
Look at Ratarossa videos on Youtube.
Off topic, just shooting the breeze while we wait for half year results on 22 November.
Yeap, think CNBC said their margin was 18% which is very high in the motor industry.
Curious thing these ultra high net worth people buying limited edition Ferrari's for US $4-5m.
It would seem its all about their collectability and scarcity and many will be investments that are never driven.
It must be that way because you can buy one of their very fastest models for the "bargain" price of only $850K $Kiwi...chump change for the billionaires that buy the limited-edition models.
Its a hybrid mate so think how much fuel you will save. Do you think you could cope with "only" having 1,000 horsepower? ;) I think I'll pass...probably kill myself in it on the first day lol https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/motors/cars/ferrari/sf90-stradale/listing/4361085963
More buying today moving that price up ...
Where do they ever get these L/100km numbers from - for any hybrid that is
I think I'll have to trade in my Mazda 3 that does about 8.3L/100Km for this Ferrari at 5.8L/100Km
Will save the price difference in no time!
Good to see TRA moving in the right direction again!
You should ask for an extended test drive around the South Island for 2 weeks to validate those fuel economy claims first...I'd love to see the face of the dealer principal if you asked for that 😉
Speaking of 2 weeks. That's how long until the half year result is announced.
Quote from: Basil on Nov 08, 2023, 10:11 AMYou should ask for an extended test drive around the South Island for 2 weeks to validate those fuel economy claims first...I'd love to see the face of the dealer principal if you asked for that 😉
Speaking of 2 weeks. That's how long until the half year result is announced.
Could have been longer if Announcement hadn't been brought forward
Full year pbt $50m here we come
"China's October vehicles sales rose at a faster pace of 13.8% year-on-year to 2.85 mln units, a record high for an October. But still, that level was fractionally lower than for September, despite the rising levels of discounting in the drive to meet every higher sales targets. Production is rising faster than sales now, so the crunch is on. Electric and hybrid sales were up +33.5% year-on-year to 956,000 units, now representing a third of total sales."
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/125183/us-eyes-cpi-and-inflation-expectations-apec-meeting-between-biden-and-xi-confirmed
This is cool from https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NZX-TRA/technicals/
IMG_5547.jpeg
Timeline of material matters coming up.
1. Half year announcement 22 November.
2. Dow Jones S&P indices NZX50 announcement expected (N.Z. Time) 2 December
I also understand Todd and team are doing an online Q&A session @ 5.30 p.m. on 27 November. (Awaiting more detail on how to participate)
OH dear no changce at 4 dollars then? silly question ?
Never have enough?
Quote from: Waltzing on Nov 13, 2023, 01:29 PMOH dear no changce at 4 dollars then? silly question ?
Never have enough?
It must be Monday. Two silly questions in one post ;)
TOP DOG this one... TOP Dog...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ekxNdBZizNQ
LOL that's kind of catchy in a quirky way.
yes who knows what the younger generations will record next ...
Jeez if Turners are going as well as that 2 Cheap outfit next weeks results are going to be a real cracker
Maybe Todd might have to mention $55m npt
Beside the speedo above whats the performance specs on this car again...
like horse power, Acceleration, drag ..
... running costs, driver costs, insurance , road user ect...
cost per mile... R & M ...
what that Miles per gallon again...
and resale value is 55 ducks? ahh bucks...is that US dollars or Kiwis..
Quote from: winner (n) on Nov 15, 2023, 09:27 AMJeez if Turners are going as well as that 2 Cheap outfit next weeks results are going to be a real cracker
Maybe Todd might have to mention $55m npt
Boat's all cleaned, fixed up and prepped up for the Turners $5 boat party. Looking super good. Might invite special guests Todd and Tina 👍
"Market share growth on track to exceed 10% in the near-term
The highlight of the period has been the sustained market share growth in Auto Retail, which now exceeds 9%, a more than doubling of Turners retail market share over 5 years. Recent gains have come from growing brand awareness, data tools, enhanced sourcing of vehicles, new site openings and damaged and end of life vehicle volume."
What is this end of life stuff... have they added crushers to the back of the sites and how much do they make on the flattened ones?
Now in the AGE of new AI CHIPS one has to consider that there are a lot of Holdens out there and where are they all... do they make for a great model for crushing and what are the margins?
Which investment to go over board on is the question....
Turners do damaged and end of life auctions. Wreckers often buy them for spare parts and / or recycling.
Right.... this is the new market darling NOT RAKON...
Sorry about all the questions we are just trying to get a HANDLE to open this one up and get a look inside the business model... ahh the cars for sale...
Hows that SP handle doing by the way? Looks like a possible break back up ....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J2hI3-KvYZY
Trying to get a HANDLE on the ROCK STAR ECONOMY !!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kjxSCAalsBE
Turn up the Volume !!!!
Down Town is the place to be.... Jump in that car and go DOWN TOWN!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wv5nd-3BRr4
its the Silly season!!!
on a not so silly note:
"PROFIT
Net profit before tax of $45.5m, up 6% on
FY22, was a record for the company.
Profit grew 28% in Automotive Retail to
$25.0m, and 9% in Insurance to $12.6m.
Finance Division's profit was down 17% to
$15m due to rapid OCR increases that saw
credit quality, regulatory compliance and
margin management become the priority
during the year. In H2, we added an additional
$0.5m to our provision buffer. Profit for Credit
Management was largely unchanged at $2.9m.
Net profit after tax (NPAT) of $32.6m was up
4% on the same period last year. "
Funding for the TRA model of business...
"FUNDING MIX
Turners has a mix of bank loans and
securitisation to fund its business. More than
80% of funding relates to finance receivables
in Oxford Finance, with capacity to support
lending over the next 12 to 24 months.
Inventory Funding has been broadened to
provide flexibility for local purchasing as well
as imports. In our Securitisation warehouse,
the BNZ now hold Class 1 notes only as
Turners refinanced the Class 2 and 3 notes
during the year. We remain very comfortable
with the debt levels and debt capacity in the
business. Corporate funding capacity is more
than sufficient to support current committed
branch expansion plans in Auto."
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NZX-TRA/technicals/
Strong BUY.
TRA - a Finance and Insurance company...
"INSURANCE
■ Helping Kiwis with motor
vehicle, loan protection
and life insurance solutions,
distributed through more
than 700 licensed car
dealers, finance companies
& brokers, and life
insurance advisers as well
as online
■ 5,200+ policies sold every
month; 180,000+ active
policies
■ $39.7m in new policies sold
in FY23
■ Average 1,275 claims paid
out monthly; $21.2m in
claims paid out in FY23"
Dog insurance ? Vet bills covered in those policies?
Just wondering.......
Looks like they got you Covered ....
It's all the leading brand "Auto sure" but maybe pet insurance is something Turners could branch out into? They did say recently they are looking at how else they can leverage Turners brand power that's built so strongly in recent years with their brilliant multi award winning Tina marketing campaign.
Tina will need a puppy following along behind?
What breed do you think she would like?
"A Girl and her Dog "
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6zV9mJITaYQ
The new Timaru branch opened this week on Wednesday. I love how they are leveraging Tina's star power with their sign.
https://www.autocar.co.nz/turners-cars-opens-new-branch-in-timaru/
Looks good.I expect it will be a winner.
Agreed. Love the other signage too. Consistently voted N.Z's most trusted used vehicle dealership.
Turners, Helping Kiwi's buy and sell for over 50 years.
Thier corporate colour is also my favorite colour. All the C Suite got their commerce degree from the same University as me, Auckland. Its almost like its pre destined that I have a large shareholding lol
Timaru has a strong motor racing following as they have a good track at Levels.
I expect they too are big Liam Lawson followers.
I hope Todd has a contingency plan if something goes wrong with Tina ...esp if Tina ended up as a persona non grata
Quote from: winner (n) on Nov 18, 2023, 04:31 PMI hope Todd has a contingency plan if something goes wrong with Tina ...esp if Tina ended up as a persona non grata
Zis eez vhere AI comes in. If Tina, god vorbid, vere to zuffer a vrong turn, an artifical intelligence version of Tina could be created. Just like vhat happened vith Peter Cushing, vhen he reprised his role in Ztar Vars 'Rogue One'.
Details here:
https://www.vulture.com/2016/12/rogue-one-peter-cushing-digital-likeness.html
Even death eez not ze career limiting move it vonce vas.
RB
Are we there yet? how many sleeps before the big news?
Forsyth Barr today put out their index insights research today forecasting what many are anticipating is about to happen.
GTK and TRA to be added to the NZX50 index in early December and SML and PEB to exit.
I've been thinking a bit more about the Tina personality factor and the power of personality in driving growth.
Its all about warmth, charm and whether people relate to the presenter. A bit of humor also goes a long way in my opinion.
Interesting article about the Chrisco lady that's food for thought and gives some insight. https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/christmas/301005564/whatever-happened-to-the-chrisco-lady
My thoughts, there's a heck of a lot to the power of a really likeable personality presented in a very charming way that's quite persuasive when it comes to influencing consumer behavior. Not all of this persuasion happens at a conscious level, it's also at a subliminal level. I really don't think on a forward PE of only 10.6 (my estimate subject to revision on Wednesday when they report their half year result), the market is recognizing the future potential of how the brilliant Tina campaign will play out in the years ahead.
The greatest apparent risk that's not lost on me, is taking too much of the sugar fix of selling too many in the index inclusion and living to regret it in the years ahead. There's no doubt in my mind that sooner or later Todd will get his $5. To be frank, it's not even a question in my mind, the only question is when, not if.
~8% gross yield is pretty good for a growth company so you're being paid handsomely to wait and enjoy future years growth.
I agree Basil. I would not sell any below $5, as still likely to be PE of 12.2 at that price which seems good value given prospects.
Forsyth Barr predicting 2.2 million shares will be required by index tracking funds on index inclusion.
They calculate that's 92 days of normal trading volume.
All that buying compressed into the ten day index inclusion process that runs from 4 -15 December. Hmmm
I think interest rates have peaked and we might start to see them coming down in the latter part of 2024. https://tmmonline.nz/article/976522518/ocr-cuts-and-when-they-will-start?utm_source=GR&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=When+OCR+cuts+will+start+
We should start to see funding tailwinds in Turners finance book beginning in 2H next year and building momentum from there.
Looking forward to the first half print tomorrow.
QuoteHi there everyone wanted to schedule in the Q&A with Aaron Saunders and myself for this Friday (24/4) at 5pm. Link below for registration.
You can ask questions on Friday either through the audio function, or the Q&A function or you can email me any questions to todd.hunter@turners.co.nz
You are invited to a Zoom webinar.
When: Nov 24, 2023 17:00 Auckland, Wellington
Topic: Turners Q&A for Sharetrader Community
Register in advance for this webinar:
https://turners.zoom.us/webinar/regi...R0SqI304ByfFRQ
After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar.
Todd Hunter - other channel. I am sure they won't mind investors from this community joining in.
Thought we were going to burst through 430 earlier but faded away
Maybe tomorrow the day
Ma
lokie if in a hurry and cant wait for the DIV to go up and you need to get some coin to buy some more tucka then im sure someone here could do you a deal....
say 425 for some .... but wait some went for 424 ... not bad buying for some lucky punter... notice those 10,000 blocks waiting..
I hoovered up a few more at $4.24 today. Feeling good about tomorrow's print and more importantly, feeling very comfortable about the prospects for the future. I feel even at that price it still trades on truly compelling metrics for such a really well managed company with a very bright future.
A cracker.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/422080
Presentation http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/422080/407740.pdf
Exceptional result in the context of the current economic conditions and very strong headwinds in the finance sector with the fastest increase in the OCR rate ever.
Points to note. Net profit up 10% despite a huge 44% reduction in profit from the finance division, $4m lower than in the previous corresponding period (PCP). see page 14 for how graphically the finance division profit has contracted in the face of really fierce finance cost headwinds.
Note they expect NIM to increase from 4.6% to 5.0% in 2H and further improvement in FY25 as the average rate on their finance book re-prices and then additionally as the OCR rate decreases.
eps up 7%.
87% of inventory is <$15K
I am forecasting Net Profit of $50m for the year giving eps of 41 cps (up from my previous estimate of 40 cps).
Forward PE at this level is only 10.4 for a business that's grown eps at a CAGR of 7% in the last decade and is currently achieving that growth despite strong economic headwinds.
I expect ongoing eps growth in the years ahead.
At 41 cps and the midpoint of their dividend payout rate of 60-70% (65%) (41 cps x 65% = 26.65 cps) they are well capable of paying well in excess of the 24 cents mentioned in the presentation which I noted contained several references to "at least" 24 cps.
If they pay 25 cps fully imputed the gross yield @ $4.25 = 8.2% (26 cps = 8.5%).
I note their very impressive ~ 10 year history of dividend growth a very important consideration for people like me looking at this company as a retirement income stock.
$50 million net profit looks highly likely for FY24. NZX50 inclusion announcement in very early December looks like a done deal.
Last word, once we see their net interest rate margins return to normal level's, (a process that is forecast to start in 2H) I expect a significant increase in their profitability and dividends in the years ahead driven off their strong improvements in retail market share.
Disc My #1 investment position on the NZX
A bit if a so so result for me
Macro seems the new buzzword in Turners dictionary
Rolling 12 months npbt now $45.7m
Saying full year expected to be above last year gives them plenty of wiggle room ......like H2 could be down almost 10% on pcp and they kept their promise ...but 10% up on pcp would give them that $50m
Todd's got to stop playing games with his numbers ...not a good habit .....possibly loves teasing the faithful.
Whatever market loves the report ...that's the main thing
600 in 24-36 months when inflation abates to 2.5 3.0.
36 months before 2.
I think to be fair Winner, after the FY23 result they were very conservative with guidance and didn't provide any. Nothing wrong with a bit of conservatism with one's forward guidance.
I think it's clear where this is headed in the medium term. The exceptionally strong headwinds within the finance division are starting to abate and a forecasted 40 basis point improvement in the NIM in 2H appears to be all off the back of the gradual repricing of the finance book as older lower interest rate loans are repaid and new loans are written at higher rates. Notwithstanding the timing of OCR deceases, I am hoping for a similar level of improvement in the NIM in 1H FY25 and 2H FY25.
What follows is a list of all other companies on the NZX with a proven history over the last decade to grow eps at a compound average growth rate of 7% that are trading under a PE of 12
That's right, there are none.
The market certainly liked the result - up nearly 6%. The next bump of likely NZX50 inclusion could be significant given the very low number of sellers. $5 at a canter I reckon.
Quote from: LoungeLizard on Nov 22, 2023, 03:40 PMThe market certainly liked the result - up nearly 6%. The next bump of likely NZX50 inclusion could be significant given the very low number of sellers. $5 at a canter I reckon.
So - what would be in your view a good price to get out before the NZX50 inclusion bubble is turning and deflating?
Quote from: BlackPeter on Nov 22, 2023, 03:46 PMSo - what would be in your view a good price to get out before the NZX50 inclusion bubble is turning and deflating?
Well, that would partly depend at what price you got in at and partly as to why you bought the share in the first place. A traders exit point is going to be different than a traditional investor.
The HLG NZX inclusion "pop" peaked at around $6.90. From memory, over $1 more than pre-inclusion - but didn't last long and slid quite quickly back to $5.60ish before recovering. Impossible to say whether TRA will move by the same % but I would expect it to fall back along similar lines. SO - imo if it gets around $5.50 then that would be a really good point to sell, with an exceptional return even bought at today's prices. $5 would be the minimum - I wouldn't sell for less as the forward looking metrics, as Basil has pointed out, are still very strong. But, as I say, horses for courses.
great call LLZ .... be interesting to see how it plays out for sure.
Under promise, over deliver mode for full year.
How its been reported in the media https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/502998/growth-in-used-car-market-share-drives-turners-half-year-result
A few notes I scribbled down from the call yesterday.
# Oxford finance has been operating with one hand tied behind its back in recent times
# Expect headwinds with funding costs to reverse course to tailwinds in due course
# With fast stock turn and good nationwide vehicle data analytics the business has been able to pivot quickly to meet demand at the lower price points of $10- 15K, 9/10 stock are now under $15K up from 7-8/10 last year
# Looking to own more sites over time so shareholders benefit from capital gains accretion
# Napier to double in size and open January 2024
# Loan book now growing again, expect Halo effect on loan book from strong vehicle sales growth
# Expect 100-200 basis NIM improvement in next couple of years, (not going all the way back to previous highs as they are targeting more lower risk lending)
# Turners generated direct loans from their car yards are their best performing loans
# Economic overlay remains @ $2m
# Second half always a bit lower than first due to Dec / Jan holiday period. Unusual timing of Easter in late March 2024 could affect March sales a bit. (I note we have a leap year in 2024 so that's another day of sales in February so should partially offset Easter effect).
# Regions have been a bit stronger than Auckland with Auckland customers probably feeling the cost of living pressure more.
Is today an ALL TIME HIGH FOR Turners ...since it became Turners
Yes this is a fresh all time high. The previous highest close was 7 January 2022 @ $4.59, (intra day high $4.61).
MT Finance going well
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MTF/422348/408120.pdf
Is there anything in the annoucements to day that will help this and other automative buisness...
its all go... as of 11 am this day 24 11 2023.
A very strong result from Motor Trade Finance.
Net interest income and fees have increased 32% to $45.8m
• Operating expense ratio has decreased 1%
• Profit after tax has increased 38% to $11.6m
• Underlying profit after tax has increased 71% to $11.3m
Just giving this a bump as it's on this afternoon. Please support this new initiative from the Turners team to communicate with retail investors. Very few if any other companies bother to do this so by supporting this and registering for the event you are supporting the continuation of a new and in my view, very healthy level of engagement with smaller shareholders. Yes, I know its Friday afternoon and Black Friday sales are on, but those who do the overtime and stay late, get the best insights.
QuoteHi there everyone wanted to schedule in the Q&A with Aaron Saunders and myself for this Friday (24/4) at 5pm. Link below for registration.
You can ask questions on Friday either through the audio function, or the Q&A function or you can email me any questions to todd.hunter@turners.co.nz
You are invited to a Zoom webinar.
When: Nov 24, 2023 17:00 Auckland, Wellington
Topic: Turners Q&A for Sharetrader Community
Register in advance for this webinar:
After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar.
Use this link to register https://turners.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_5kSbimoFR0SqI304ByfFRQ#/registration
Forsyth Barr forecasting Net profit before tax of $48m+ in FY24, rising to $52m+ and $56m+ in FY25 and FY26.
Dividends 25 cps this year rising to 27 cps and 29 cps in FY26,...very nice. With dividends paid quarterly and strong projected growth like that, surely this makes Tuners the "purrfect" dividend hounds stock ;)
Quote from: Basil on Nov 24, 2023, 02:45 PMForsyth Barr forecasting Net profit before tax of $48m+ in FY24, rising to $52m+ and $56m+ in FY25 and FY26.
Dividends 25 cps this year rising to 27 cps and 29 cps in FY26,...very nice. With dividends paid quarterly and strong projected growth like that, surely this makes Tuners the "purrfect" dividend hounds stock ;)
Most FY24 forecasts are implying a weakish second half ......do the same as last year npbt will be ~$48m for full year
Yeah, Forbar's note reflecting the conservatism expressed in the call. Nothing wrong with good old fashioned conservatism, under promising and over delivering, almost a lost art on the NZX these days. I like their forecasts of 7-8% growth in earnings in FY25 and FY26 making it a "Bakers" dozen of years growing at that CAGR, yet still lurking on a FY25 PE of ~ 11. (Can't help ironically observing that what very few other companies on the NZX that have achieved that sort of consistent growth, generally get rerated into PE's in thew 20's or more).
TRA a classic GARP stock.
looks like its topped out for the mo...
Huge demand coming with index inclusion to be announced late next week and buying effect kicking off 4 December.
Help.
I missed the first 10 minutes of the presentation.
Can any one please fill me in on what I missed.?
Just trying to work out what you missed.
Did you get all my Questions and their answers ?
I think so.Todd was answering a question from you when I joined.
Good questions.
Excellent answers particularly on their finance book..
Quote from: Basil on Nov 24, 2023, 06:02 PMHuge demand coming with index inclusion to be announced late next week and buying effect kicking off 4 December.
Good interview Bas. It was loud and clear. And a few kind words from Mat at the end. Inclusion announcement to be on 1/12/23 and inclusion day on 15/12/23 correct me if I'm wrong.
Thanks seaweed. Glad it came though clear as my wi-fi here is pretty ordinary at times. Really great Todd and Aaron engaged with us retail investors like that and committed to do so in the future each half year. You're right on announcement date for NZX50 inclusion but please note The Dow Jones indices thing, where it's based is on US time so expect confirmation of NZX50 inclusion sometime Saturday morning 2 December our time. I'll post a link confirming inclusion as soon as I see it.
lorriana - Thanks. I don't want to belittle the first lot of questions that were asked and answered by others but I don't recall any special insights being forthcoming from that initial few minutes of the meeting. Not sure you missed much but then again it could be just my memory is not 100% on a Friday afternoon lol.
Great anecdotes shared on the Tauranga property acquisition. Also very proactive on other site acquisitions. Gosh those guys are right on top of their game.
Love that our rock star Tina is fully engaged with the business and will be a real winner in driving market share gains going forward just as she has been in the last few years. Decent NIM recovery next year even without any change to the OCR settings gives encouragement too.
A lot to like with this company.
Thanks.
I think people under estimate just how clever Turners are with their property deals.
Any property they buy and develop they get the development margin,and the property is valued higher as it is leased to a listed national client,ie Turners Cars.
Great use of part of their insurance float.
I really appreciated the guys giving us a lot more detail around their property strategy and execution. Love that they are taking advantage of the more favorable environment for buyers of commercial property at the moment. Plenty of opportunities will come their way in the next 12-18 months for more branch expansion I reckon.
Do they hold the property in a holding company.
Yes Turners Property Holdings Limited, 100% subsidiary, see page 76 of the 2023 annual report.
I see they claimed $299K depreciation last year and will be more this year with property additions.
That's an expense that soon won't be allowed under this new Govt so Net profit before tax will take a commensurate adjustment upwards from FY25.
Well done Sir B, many thanks for that...
clever boys and girls my gosh...
page 70...76 ... right...
does this man not sleep ... pages and pages of reports read and digested...
we think he must actually be a pro working for an organisation ... cant be a private investor...
You're far too kind mate. I can't help myself, I'm infatuated with Tina lol
Theme song for index inclusion and $5 boat party https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vjD3EVC1-zU
The $109m of land and property on Turners books is at Cost less a few years depreciation
Wonder what they are actually worth if valued at market (pretty sure never been revalued in the books)
Maybe could add best part of a buck to NTA?
As at March they had $5,8m of Investment Property being residential zoned land at Sanctuary Hill Christchurch
At September Investment Property is shown as NIL
Did they sell it or something? Nothing obvious in Cash Flow Statementb
Quote from: winner (n) on Nov 25, 2023, 09:47 AMAs at March they had $5,8m of Investment Property being residential zoned land at Sanctuary Hill Christchurch
At September Investment Property is shown as NIL
Did they sell it or something? Nothing obvious in Cash Flow Statementb
Where's Sanctuary Hill in Christchurch?
Go to Google Maps.
358 Worsleys Road,Cashmere,Christchurch.
Quote from: lorraina on Nov 25, 2023, 10:09 AMGo to Google Maps.
358 Worsleys Road,Cashmere,Christchurch.
Thanks Lorraina, I lived in the flat city for twenty years and had never heard of it. It looks like a good land bank.
Quote from: Hectorplains on Nov 25, 2023, 10:12 AMThanks Lorraina, I lived in the flat city for twenty years and had never heard of it. It looks like a good land bank.
From Turners last annual report;
"The investment property was valued at reporting date at the purchase price included in a conditional sale and purchase for property."
Perhaps they have sold it.?
A large parcel of land,that Turners inherited many years ago when the owner/borrower defaulted. [Dorcester days]
Whether is is or has been a good land bank or not,I have my doubts,and I would hope Turners have sold it,and recycled the funds into an Auto Retail site .
Bare land costs money to hold as there is no income generated.
What happened to it prob be reported innInterim Report when it comes out
Really cool that Todd and Aaron took the time out of their busy lives to engage with retail shareholders late yesterday afternoon. Not aware of any other company that makes that sort of effort. The extra insights shared were very interesting and appreciated and has helped me refine where I see the shares going in the next few years.
Reflecting on this I must confess it was hard work a few months ago at $3.50 when the SP simply couldn't seem to get out of its own way and sat there in the mid $3's like it weas anchored to the rock of Gibraltar. Had to really grit my teeth and just kept doggedly buying blocks of shares in the hope that one day the market would wake up and realise the potential of this company.
Now I'm heavily overweight and anyone that takes an interest in my posts knows I am strong advocate for a well-diversified portfolio, (heck it was my signature line on the other channel for years lol) and sure it even says in the Bible to invest in 7 or 8 things because nobody knows what calamity may befall the earth but it doesn't say in equal proportion and I know my very successful farming cousins in Southland have very big fields of certain crops they feel are more lucrative then others, while still maintaining a diversified farm with other crops and livestock.
So where am I goi8ng with this endless reflective prattle you might wonder...I am wondering myself lol.
There are many facets to what impresses me with Turners that I've talked about before but I guess what's really surprised me this year is how resilient the business has been in very difficult economic times. Far more resilient than any of the other retail stocks out there. That got me pondering why is that ?
I can't help reflecting on some fuel demand information I saw while a shareholder of Z. Basically, the demand for fuel is almost completely inelastic, even a huge price shock only shifts demand down 2%. I guess as a byproduct of our, (by modern international standards), pretty hopeless public transport system Kiwi's really love their freedom of movement and cars in a way give you wings, (the ability to go wherever and whenever you like). I guess after the cruel lockdowns during Covid we value that freedom even more.
Analysts will use comparative stocks to value TRA and I get that's always part of their valuation methodology but there are no directly comparable companies and I really like that Turners really are agile, (I almost despise using that word after Nick at WHS almost abuses it with overuse), and can adapt their stock holdings quite quickly to meet the market demand where it sits. Their level of stock turn is deeply impressive.
I guess the big learning for me this year, (maybe I should always have known this), is that TRA is more resilient than a stock like HLG or Briscoes, despite those companies also being incredibly well managed. People will happily defer clothes or homeware purchases but when you need a car, you need a car and that's all there is to it. The consistent way Turners have performed over the Covid period and this year has deeply impressed me.
I've found my own version of Ben Graham's intrinsic valuation formula really valuable over the years as it irons out a lot of the B.S. companies like to throw at you. A reminder, he says the intrinsic value is historic PE of 8.5 + 2 x g where g is the average expected compound growth rate over the next 7-10 years. My version for finding deep value growth stocks is forward PE of 8.5 + 1 g where g is the same and with Turners having proven to grow eps at 7% over the last decade and brokers picking that to continue for the next 2 years, I find myself wondering if 7 is the right g for TRA over the next 7-10 years. After talking with Todd and Aaron last night about their future plans with site acquisitions and the steady and systematic way they want to go about this and reflecting on the brilliance of the Tina marketing campaign, I think they can grow at that rate for the foreseeable future.
So...if that's a reasonable proposition then I think intrinsically they're worth a PE of 8.5 + 7 = 15.5 I note there are a vast number of companies on the NZX with a less stellar growth rate trading on much higher PE's. Forsyth Barr are forecasting 43.1 cps in FY25 so that gets me to 15.5 x 43.1 = $6.68
To be clear, I am not suggesting they are going there any time soon, that's simply my view of the intrinsic value of their business with the excellence of their business model and marketing.
I do think this warrants a decent premium to Briscoes which I note is trading on 12.2 times FY25 broker estimates so maybe this time next year we see then on a multiple of 12.5 - 13.0 as the market starts to open its eyes to their prospects in a more encouraging economic climate. Maybe a feasible price target a year hence is 12.5 - 13 times 43.1 cps = $5.39 - $5.60.
So that brings me full circle to the question of diversification and the potential sugar rush of index inclusion. To be frank, I really struggle to find decent companies on the NZX with high caliber management that I respect trading on attractive GARP multiples. Sure, invest on a diversified basis in at least 7 or 8 things so that suggests about 12.5% each makes sense but if you really believe in something maybe double or even, dare I suggest this, triple that level for one stock you feel is a truly compelling hold is okay ?
If I take some sugar hit from index inclusion somewhere in the low to mid $5's what other opportunity am I going to invest in that has similar medium to long term prospects that's trading on such undemanding multiples ?
Then I got to reflecting on Forsyth Barr's estimate of FY26, (which isn't that far away, only the year after next) dividends of 29 cents a share and thinking about how useful that will be and the future growth from there in my retirement years, remembering it's not just about the yield, there are two parts to this, the yield and how it's going to grow over time..
Do you want to be a trader or investor, everyone has to make their own mind up.
My doctor reckons too much sugar is no good for you and I reckon he's right lol
Sorry for the endless rant. I hope this long musing is helpful for some who might be considering what to do with their shares on index inclusion.
Did they talk about the Economic Overlay Provision of $2m they have
Suppose it's just a few million put aside for a rainy day .....and if the rainy day doesn't come just release it to profit
Maybe learning from our Jeff ....maybe a profit smoothing tool lol ...don't want to make too much sometimes
Time allocation for this stock on this forum has gone up .... it takes more time to follow this stock than to follow the politics of the country...
Quote from: Waltzing on Nov 25, 2023, 02:39 PMTime allocation for this stock on this forum has gone up .... it takes more time to follow this stock than to follow the politics of the country...
It still has some way to go to generate the attention of OCA or SKT...
Oh, and that's not a challenge, Basil!
Who knows maybe Todd will be inspired to follow in Chris footsteps on day too?
Quote from: Waltzing on Nov 25, 2023, 02:39 PMTime allocation for this stock on this forum has gone up .... it takes more time to follow this stock than to follow the politics of the country...
LOL....not much real work done this week. Deep dive into the report on Wednesday, then the call, then the ponderings, then yesterday afternoon's zoom meeting, more ponderings this morning and then writing that sermon...all in one week. Just as well I am semi-retired and don't have a proper job lol.
Unsurprisingly the tank is a bit empty so next week after a break, I might type up a brief summary of yesterday's zoom meeting for those that couldn't attend. In the meantime, I am sure there will be much chin wagging about this and many other shares at tomorrow's get-together at the Viaduct, Oyster and Chop at 3.00 p.m., all welcome.
Is Todd turning up at the get together
If so I hope he brings Tina, I want to give her a hug ;D
Quote from: Basil on Nov 25, 2023, 04:20 PMIf so I hope he brings Tina, I want to give her a hug ;D
Quote from: Basil on Nov 25, 2023, 04:20 PMIf so I hope he brings Tina, I want to give her a hug ;D
Sieni might might be there trying be in cognito
well HTP ... at least this stock is GOING UP!!!
OCA ? death by a thousand cuts... no thanks....
Amazing to say but second hand cars are out perfoming age care and property.... how about that...
Right now in the central WAKATOO there are age care suburbs going up in rural towns ... When all those people move in there will be wheel chair grid lock in th main streets...
a boom for rural NZ towns just off the express way... but those companies except SUM are ......
Have got all the research analyst reports, some consensus estimates below for those interested. The three analysts are Jarden, Craigs, & Forbar.
FY24 EPS: 39.75 (PE 11.7x @ $4.66 spot)
FY25 EPS: 42.36 (PE 11x)
FY26 EPS: 48.85 (PE 10.2x)
FY24 DPS: 25 declared, 34.7 gross (7.5% gross yield @ $4.66 spot)
FY25 DPS: 27 declared, 37.5 gross (8% gross)
FY26 DPS: 29.3 declared, 40.7 gross (8.7% gross)
Thereafter: CIP & Forbar only provide 3 year forecasts. Jarden provide to FY30. The long term forecasts feel a bit optimistic but if achieved would be a fantastic achievement.
SPOT valuation: $4.46 (ie the value today, not the target in 12 months)
12 month target price: $4.88. Note, Forbar only provide a spot valuation (& are the lowest of the 3) and do not provide a 12 month target price. For those not familiar with the distinction, target prices are the most commonly referred to broker valuation. They are derived rolling forward the spot valuation by the cost of equity and then subtract the divided expected over that period. So if you had a spot valuation of $100, and cost of equity was 8, your roll forward would be 108, then less (say) expected dividends of $4, would give you a TP of $104.
Valuation methodology.
Forbar: blended average of DCF, peer multiples, and a dividend discount model.
Jarden: DCF
Craigs: DCF (though I note their cost of equity is quite high)
On the EPS and DPS forecasts they are in a tight cluster - not much variation at all between them - and that has been the cast for the last year or so. It would be fair to say TRA has been meeting or exceeding recent estimates, and has been in an upgrade cycle since March.
Turners 1 year forward PE multiple is sitting bang in line with its average from April 2017 to November 2023. and a tiny smidge below its 12 month forward consensus dividend yield.
Agree there is some scope for multiple expansion or gross dividend yield compression (I prefer the later) as interest rates fall and the market becomes more familiar with TRA business model and resilience. It does get pinged in DCFs and their implied PE ratios as it is a fairly working capital intensive business (cars and more particularly the finance book). and a lot of the growth is capital intensive. I like the integrated model but worth recalling they did try to get rid of the book back in 2018 (plus or minus a year I forget).
I have a spreadsheet showing all the recent NZX 50 index inclusions (as well as the inclusions of NZX shares into offshore indices but shown separately as a different dynamic) and subsequent index pops and level of reversion thereafter. If get time can maybe share some of that. It basically looks at the # of trading sessions on either side of the inclusion, rebases the SP performance for each stock, and averages it across a number of stocks so you can see the average cycle (ie the rise of the price up to inclusion, and then what happens the other side)
Also has a bit of an analysis showing the correlation between the level of the pop and the relative liquidity. IE the average daily volume in the 12 month period to the index inclusion announcement, the # of shares required to be purchased, and the excess average days purchase required as well as the required shares divided by the shares outstanding. When looking across different inclusions it becomes a pretty decent indicator of the level of pop based on the relative liquidity. And when the intra peak price was achieved relative to the close on evening of inclusion over the sample of inclusions.
Enough of these long long posts....
and now the threat of data analysis tables ...
its summer people ... really...
soon this will bethe only stock one will be able to follow....
Hey Fiordland Moose thanks for sharing. I have the other 2 reports but not Jarden's one and those estimates out to FY30 sound interesting. Why not, just for fun so we know what a bull case might look like, post their eps estimates for FY27-FY30.
As you suggest if the risk free rate comes down in the years ahead and they keep growing at the same 7% they have for the last decade, we might see some really serious capital gains. Index inclusion pop and reversion date sounds interesting too. Care to share some more info ?
They have dps of 33 in fy27 rising to 38.5 in fy30. Would love it to be achieved but had an aspirational feel to it (rising margins, ROEs and marketshare gets to 12% in fy30). Can get my head around their nearer term thinking.
Thanks. 38.5 dps in FY30 at the midpoint of their 60-70% payout range suggests they think eps is about 59 cps compared to 40cps in FY24. This suggest a CAGR of ~ 6.5% for the 6 years after FY24, compared to 7% over the last decade. Seems quite plausible to me, (and in line with my thinking). We need to keep in mind that the brilliant Tina marketing campaign has only been going for a few years.
Market share growing to 12% over that time also seems a plausible target.
Todd commented very enthusiastically about how effective "Tina" has been in recent years in nearly doubling their market share. He also somewhat flippantly concluded by saying the whole thing is covered in "pixie dust" I did an optional marketing paper at Auckland Uni, seems like a lifetime ago now. I see real magic and brilliance in their marketing and the public really seem to be warming and relating to our new rock star.
I can confirm from the Zoom meeting on Friday they have now signed an unconditional agreement for a further Tauranga site. I think with their well outlined branch expansion and brand building strategies you'd be a brave man to bet against them continuing to grow market share at a decent pace.
On the PE thing, a company with a proven history of CAGR in the late single figures and similar outlook for the foreseeable future, deserves more widespread market recognition than its currently accorded. Perhaps the pending NZX50 inclusion will be the start of that process.
Can they grow market share to 12% by FY30 ?
Had a good chat with a few people yesterday at the Oster and Chop get together about this.
The facts are since the brilliant Tina campaign a few years ago they have nearly doubled market share from ~ 5% to over 9%. More than a 4% increase in a short period of time.
With their known branch expansion plans, opportunities they are pursuing for more land and their brilliant marketing efforts, in the next 6.5 years to the end of FY30 I'd be quite surprised if they didn't at least add another 4% market share to take it over 13%. 13% would be a very conservative target in my view. Something in the range of 14-15% wouldn't surprise me at all.
How many sites has Turners Auto Retail got at present?
The 2019 reports said 33 sites ...but I'd like an up to date number
From Turners website;
Turners Auto Retail Division is NZ's largest used vehicle network
and operates across 3 key areas: Used Cars; Used Trucks & Machinery; and Damaged and End of Life Vehicles. With 30 branches nationwide and over 500 members of our team, we take pride in the contribution that we've been making to keep NZ moving for over 50 years.
Quote from: lorraina on Nov 27, 2023, 03:53 PMFrom Turners website;
Turners Auto Retail Division is NZ's largest used vehicle network
and operates across 3 key areas: Used Cars; Used Trucks & Machinery; and Damaged and End of Life Vehicles. With 30 branches nationwide and over 500 members of our team, we take pride in the contribution that we've been making to keep NZ moving for over 50 years.
Thanks
So 30 now ...said 33 in 2019 Annual report
Beside new ones must have closed / consolidated some sites
31 with a range of new committed site's and opportunities currently under consideration, see page 23
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/422080/407740.pdf
Quote from: winner (n) on Nov 27, 2023, 04:31 PMThanks
So 30 now ...said 33 in 2019 Annual report
Beside new ones must have closed / consolidated some sites
They mix you up with cars,trucks and machinery,end of life vehicles,and now even two general goods..lol
Cars 21.
Quote from: winner (n) on Nov 27, 2023, 04:31 PMThanks
So 30 now ...said 33 in 2019 Annual report
Beside new ones must have closed / consolidated some sites
I suspect their might be a difference between branch and site. Take Christchurch - its one branch, but I understand they want to develop it into three sites. Same sitaution probably in other towns as well.
Lets just assume they have currently (as they said) 30 branches and more sites than they can count :) ; Its unlkely that the number of sites has been reduced since 2019 (at least I remember only new sites opening).
Two in Auckland closed/ moved
The Penrose one moved somewhere, the one at Mt Wellington closed/merged with another from memory - was an ex Buy Right yard
FY19 seems to be the base Turners use to measure progress ...so here goes ...March 19 to Sept 23
Market Share up from 4.9% to 9.1% ......UP 86%
Auto Retail Division sales up from 225m to 304m .....UP 35%
Auto Retail Division profit up from 18.3m to 26.8m ... UP 46% or 7%pa
Good to see profit margin increasing ...but seems to say market share not an indicator of overall division profit growth
But then I have no idea how they calculate market share (prob volume sales) and obviously the financials of Auto Retail involve more than just selling cars
Thought Tina would have driven higher sales ..maybe she got to try harder
Just a few notes I scribbled down from last Friday's retail investors Q & A zoom call.
Not intended to be a full report on the call, (best if you tune in yourself to these events which Todd and Aaron have kindly undertaken to continue after future reporting periods).
1. I asked, Is our rock star a happy camper and a committed vital team member with Turners over the medium to long term.
A Long story short, Yes a very happy camper. recently been doing some work with Liam down at Hampton Downs. Todd reiterated the story of how the campaign came about with the ex global creative director of Saatchi and Saatchi a key driver of this but it was a team effort, (see page 26 of the annual report)
2. 40 bps NIM margin expansion in 2H FY24 signaled in the presentation so I asked if we might see a similar expansion in 1H and 2H FY25?
A. The book reprices every month as older lower interest rate loans are gradually repaid, and new higher rate loans are issued. The average loan duration is 27 months and the ledger will be fully repriced by Sept 2025. We expect NIM expansion of about 30 bps in both 1H and 2H FY25 irrespective of the timing of future OCR reductions.
3. Funding cost reductions in the future when the OCR reductions start to occur. I asked how this plays out given some of their book is fixed and some floating.
A. We have $240m fixed rate funding and $180m unhedged. There is a further natural hedge of about $60m with funds invested in the insurance division so the net unhedged is about $120m. A 1% cut in the OCR will accordingly lower our funding costs by $1.2m.
4. Car subscriptions thing how's that going.
A. Ticking along okay. About 260 car subs at this point. Has a seasonal element to it and tracks up over 300 over the summer months. Not a material contributor to profitability but they will continue with it.
Index inclusion was also mentioned by Todd and they are looking forward to confirmation of that, (I expect that tomorrow morning our time), as vindication for the years of hard work by the whole team.
Comment - I think morale and team engagement is very high across the business and we are very well positioned going forward.
Quote from: Basil on Dec 01, 2023, 09:38 AMJust a few notes I scribbled down from last Friday's retail investors Q & A zoom call.
Not intended to be a full report on the call, (best if you tune in yourself to these events which Todd and Aaron have kindly undertaken to continue after future reporting periods).
1. I asked, Is our rock star a happy camper and a committed vital team member with Turners over the medium to long term.
A Long story short, Yes a very happy camper. recently been doing some work with Liam down at Hampton Downs. Todd reiterated the story of how the campaign came about with the ex global creative director of Saatchi and Saatchi a key driver of this but it was a team effort, (see page 26 of the annual report)
2. 40 bps NIM margin expansion in 2H FY24 signaled in the presentation so I asked if we might see a similar expansion in 1H and 2H FY25?
A. The book reprices every month as older lower interest rate loans are gradually repaid, and new higher rate loans are issued. The average loan duration is 27 months and the ledger will be fully repriced by Sept 2025. We expect NIM expansion of about 30 bps in both 1H and 2H FY25 irrespective of the timing of future OCR reductions.
3. Funding cost reductions in the future when the OCR reductions start to occur. I asked how this plays out given some of their book is fixed and some floating.
A. We have $240m fixed rate funding and $180m unhedged. There is a further natural hedge of about $60m with funds invested in the insurance division so the net unhedged is about $120m. A 1% cut in the OCR will accordingly lower our funding costs by $1.2m.
4. Car subscriptions thing how's that going.
A. Ticking along okay. About 260 car subs at this point. Has a seasonal element to it and tracks up over 300 over the summer months. Not a material contributor to profitability but they will continue with it.
Index inclusion was also mentioned by Todd and they are looking forward to confirmation of that, (I expect that tomorrow morning our time), as vindication for the years of hard work by the whole team.
Comment - I think morale and team engagement is very high across the business and we are very well positioned going forward.
Thanks for all your input Basil. I also got a very good positive vibe from last Fridays online question and answer conference call. It will be a very interesting week from 4 Dec through to close of market on 15 Dec.
So what's ur pick for the share price over next few Basil? Over $5?... going to grab anymore today before it all kicks off?!
Second question, maybe.
The other one is very hard to answer, and I am reluctant to go on the record because, frankly, I got the HLG index inclusion price very wrong, (despite doing very handsomely from that).
I made a lengthy post with some musings about the company's intrinsic value see post #553 and I am very much focused on seeing how the shares play out in the future relative to my long-term price target in the late $6's. We could see this company paying annual fully imputed dividends in the very late 30's cps by the end of this decade and frankly as a semi-retired investor, (retired by then), that's a very attractive growth profile in dividends going forward.
I you don't mind I will give you something of a "politician's" type answer. My gut feel is its somewhere over $5 but who knows for sure.
Haha FairPlay! Urv nailed this one so far, keep it up!
Thanks Seaweed and Ricky, I appreciate the encouragement.
Official NZX50 index inclusion confirmation just released by the NZX (Also being added to the mid cap index).
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/NZXO/422832/408802.pdf
Yep, we're in. Congrats to all that picked it and backed up the call with their money. Let's see where the SP goes (rubs hands with glee).
There has been a lot of Fanta discussion on TRA stock that has been very useful.
Thanks to all - especially Basil.
FANTA ....
OMP ... great acronym
is that a new one?
Hehe Mr W.
It could actually stand for a few things....'fantasie' (Deutsch), or a sugary orange drink, or a range of FANG type stocks, amongst others.....but no.
Just a typo. Meant to say 'fantastic'.
:D
well we have a new one...
FANTA .... Financial Analysis and Technical Analysis.....
And Sir B is one of the Best... reminds me of the old school Chartered Accountants i grew up around... and we have found another one does a lot of Excel to go and download his knowledge into Models....
See the Model for OMC processing on the technology thread...
There will be a lot more of that posted over the next 12-24 months .
One can post from anywhere these days.... maybe the lounge bar of the A380 in 2025..
Todd's halo glowing even brighter now that TRA in the big index ....hope it continues to glow.
So share price $4.68 when announced. Will go above $5 next week and possibly even $5.50 by inclusion date.
Then I see it falling back to around $5.00 (nice round number) and remaining there with the usual +/- swings all on next year
But wouldn't $5.50 or higher be great in next couple of weeks ,,,,, think I'll be selling at that price.
And there will be a boost over the Christmas break as a few brokers get on the band wagon and put TRA in the Brokers Tips thing in the NZ Herald
An old dog needs a purpose, so I feel good if I played a very small part in helping others get ahead a bit and I hope it's a blessing to them and their families. I would encourage people to share the blessing with their loved ones and community this Christmas season.
I am sure Todd is chuffed about achieving this milestone, but he is a humble man and always quick to say he's just a small part of a big team, or words to that effect. He mentioned in last weeks zoom call that if they get inclusion, its market recognition of the years of hard work by the whole team.
On that note, I can't help but reflect that I think market awareness and understanding of the growth story of Turners will grow with index inclusion.
Winner, I like your point about the prospect of being included in brokers picks for 2024. I hadn't really thought about that much until you mentioned it, but I think that's something to consider. Also, let's not forget that there's another 6 cps fully imputed dividend next month.
Quote from: Waltzing on Dec 02, 2023, 08:58 AMFANTA ....
OMP ... great acronym
is that a new one?
FANTA:
- Food and Nutrition Technical Assistance
- F*ck And Never Touch Again
- Fanta-stic (originally created in Nazi Germany as name of a drink, derived from "fantastisch, which means fantastic ïn English :)
I guess one of them it might be ...
Beginning to think Todd being the humble guy he is wouldn't crow about index inclusion .....bbut Grant did it for him ha ha
Marked PRICE SENSITIVE too
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/422852/408823.pdf
Okay to make a bit of noise about inclusion I reckon.
It'll be interesting to see how long that ~ 70,000 block of shares on offer at $4.85 lasts.
Quote from: Basil on Dec 04, 2023, 10:10 AMOkay to make a bit of noise about inclusion I reckon.
It'll be interesting to see how long that ~ 70,000 block of shares on offer at $4.85 lasts.
I'm waiting for 540/550
Its sure going to be fascinating to see how it travels in the lead-up to the index inclusion on 15 December. Very strong tailwinds to the share price in the next 10 trading days that's for sure! I think "Santa" might come a bit early for TRA shareholders this year 😊
Quote from: Basil on Dec 04, 2023, 10:10 AMOkay to make a bit of noise about inclusion I reckon.
It'll be interesting to see how long that ~ 70,000 block of shares on offer at $4.85 lasts.
Not long, is the answer. Picking up steam now. I'm sticking with $5.50 as a target in the next few days.
if it gets to 5.50 tis week then 6 is on the cards surely...
Not sure about $6 - but happy to be proved wrong. ;D
Quote from: LoungeLizard on Dec 04, 2023, 10:41 AMNot sure about $6 - but happy to be proved wrong. ;D
BINGO, that's the best quotable quote of the week right there lol ;D
HIGH 5....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rwsRzKwJa58
Are you excited yet? ARE YOU EXCITED ! ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I57hkclh3kk
Quote from: Waltzing on Dec 04, 2023, 12:48 PMAre you excited yet?
Not particularly excited here. TRA a bit slower off the starting grid than anticipated today - especially when compared with GTK.
YUP GTK is a nice mover for sure...still its a car sales yard .... cant be to excited ...
maybe they need a new star to promote it...
maybe TINA can do some laps .... burns outs... drifting ,,,,
Yep, seems to have lost a gear. Might be more of a slow burner this one, since the SP had already moved considerably in the last few months. I still think we'll get to $5.50 at some point as TRA'S metrics support that sort of price point.
TRA Chart ... it not too BAD and it pay a BIG DIV!!!
Yeah, maybe TRA looks like more of a slow build rather than an index inclusion bubble and burst. Happy to keep holding, keep banking those quarterly divvies and watch the SP continue to grow over time.
Quote from: Waltzing on Dec 04, 2023, 01:01 PMYUP GTK is a nice mover for sure...still its a car sales yard .... cant be to excited ...
maybe they need a new star to promote it...
maybe TINA can do some laps .... burns outs... drifting ,,,,
Todd mentioned the other day she's been doing some work with Liam down at Hampton Downs so you never know, you might get your wish!
I'm happy to keep the DRP plan going giving me more shares and doing my bit to help ensure TRA have plenty of capital to continue expanding their branch network.
Seems low volume today but is above daily average so can't be too bad
Need Muse to keep us up to date as too how many need to be bought by fundies
There's a lot more sellers at current levels than I would have thought, and maybe that's what's keeping the price lower than expected. I suppose everyone has their exit point, but it seems to strange to sell up in low 4.80's. I would have thought $5 would have been the absolute minimum, but each to their own.
It's early days though and it is estimated that over 2-2.5m shares will have to be bought by index funds. 375k bought so far today. but it might be harder to find sellers at these levels in the coming days?
"Todd mentioned the other day she's been doing some work with Liam down at Hampton Downs "
ok the star is not just a TV photo shoot Barbie!!!
and TRA pays a DIV....
well managed balance sheet....
records of increasing profits....
Battle hardened company...
some other hot stocks dont pay a DIV as they are Growth stocks with a record of losses... and sometimes a profit...
Quote from: LoungeLizard on Dec 04, 2023, 04:01 PMThere's a lot more sellers at current levels than I would have thought, and maybe that's what's keeping the price lower than expected. I suppose everyone has their exit point, but it seems to strange to sell up in low 4.80's. I would have thought $5 would have been the absolute minimum, but each to their own.
It's early days though and it is estimated that over $2-2.5m shares will have to be bought by index funds. 375k bought so far today. but it might be harder to find sellers at these levels in the coming days?
2.2 million shares ...not $ ...even though that was a typo eh
Quote from: LoungeLizard on Dec 04, 2023, 04:01 PMThere's a lot more sellers at current levels than I would have thought, and maybe that's what's keeping the price lower than expected. I suppose everyone has their exit point, but it seems to strange to sell up in low 4.80's. I would have thought $5 would have been the absolute minimum, but each to their own.
It's early days though and it is estimated that over $2-2.5m shares will have to be bought by index funds. 375k bought so far today. but it might be harder to find sellers at these levels in the coming days?
$4.80 is almost exactly 12 times analyst consensus eps for FY24. Sellers at that level are also foregoing next month's 6 cps dividend.
I am happy to hold the very fulsome position I have at that price as there's a chronic shortage of well managed growth companies on the NZX trading on that compelling metric.
I saw one trade went through 200,000 at $4.80.
Could not help but wonder if someone was buying themselves another Ferrari.?....lol
I wondered the same lol. T+2 settlement and this is the dearest one on Trade Me. Lets see if it's still for sale at the end of the week lol
https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/motors/cars/ferrari/sf90-stradale/listing/4361085963
Very little volume moving so far today and only negative SP action.
Surely, not all the required shares were hoovered up prior to the Top 50 announcement?
Quote from: Pierre on Dec 05, 2023, 11:37 AMVery little volume moving so far today and only negative SP action.
Surely, not all the required shares were hoovered up prior to the Top 50 announcement?
Games being played ...no rush
shes a trade ... cant wait to see laps from TINA...
only as we dont watch NZ TV im sure she will pop up on the internet somewhere..
SP heading back to where it was pre-inclusion. Doesn't make much sense to me, but who knows what deals were done behind the scenes by Fund managers. Or maybe they are yet to do their re-balancing?
What a laugh. I had an order in I had forgotten about it wasn't until I was checking my emails that I noticed I had bought more at 4.69 lol.
Quote from: LoungeLizard on Dec 05, 2023, 02:07 PMSP heading back to where it was pre-inclusion. Doesn't make much sense to me, but who knows what deals were done behind the scenes by Fund managers. Or maybe they are yet to do their re-balancing?
They probably all headed back to HLG for the 4 month double dip with the fantastic yld. But you have to buy back into HLG before 5pm Wednesday 6/12/23 which is tomorrow night to get the double. This is better than the horses with a guaranteed pay out. I got a dollar each way on this one and also a dollar each way on TRA. They are both winners in different races 8)
Index inclusion happens over 10 trading days usually with the peak demand in the last few days and more specifically the last 15 minute match price process on Friday 15 December.. We know approx. 2.2 million shares must be brought so I think buyers are biding their time.
Hope HLG works out for you mate and holds at about $6 after the divvy payout. Best wishes.
Costco into car sales
Doubt Todd that worried
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/costco-prepares-to-launch-car-sales-in-nz/BVM4FGSRYZBJXKKME6YDXHPG7Y/
Maybe paywalled
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/05/billionaire-charlie-munger-wanted-his-kids-to-hold-onto-3-parenting-lessons-until-their-100th-birthdays.html
Interesting story that has some vehicle angles to it. I reckon Todd and other senior management treat their employees and customers fairly which is one of the keys supportive of the success of Turners.
Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 06, 2023, 08:06 AMCostco into car sales
Doubt Todd that worried
In business 'deep into something' is better than 'wide into everything'. Agree - likely not a big threat.
Hmmm..what new devilry is this? SP below inclusion price and with a dividend to come in January. Very low volumes so is someone playing games I wonder????
Quote from: Basil on Dec 05, 2023, 04:43 PMIndex inclusion happens over 10 trading days usually with the peak demand in the last few days and more specifically the last 15 minute match price process on Friday 15 December.. We know approx. 2.2 million shares must be brought so I think buyers are biding their time.
Hope HLG works out for you mate and holds at about $6 after the divvy payout. Best wishes.
Must be little sharesies taking profit. HLG looking pretty sad today.
wonder if the instos have been burnt with HLG and are dreaming up a new approach...
but what could it be...
Now for the NZX20 ha ha
How Turners used three simple goals to reach the NZX50
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/markets/how-turners-used-three-simple-goals-to-reach-the-nzx50
Prob paywalled
How Turners used three simple goals to reach the NZX50
Rebecca Stevenson | Thu, 07 Dec 2023
Turners boss Todd Hunter says momentum is hard to get, but once you have it, it's very powerful. (Image: Turners Automotive Group)
And now, the NZX20.
Turners Automotive Group has joined the club of 50 and officially now counts as one of the S&P NZX50 Index firms with the 50 largest market capitalisations on the New Zealand stock exchange (NZX).
It's been a long-held goal for group chief executive officer Todd Hunter and chair Grant Baker and brings with it the cachet of being among the NZX's best and investment from NZX50 Index tracking funds.
Hunter said the Turners team toasted the milestone with a few quiet beers on Friday.
Epitome of an overnight success
The company has garnered public attention in recent years because of its popular Tina from Turners ads. However, Hunter said reaching the NZX50 was the epitome of an overnight success that took years to achieve.
Hunter said he jotted some goals on a piece of paper at an off-site planning day in 2017.
He wrote: $5 share price, $50 million pre-tax profit, NZX50.
"And now we're pretty close to ticking off a few things on that list."
How did the Turners team achieve their goal?
Hunter said each of the Turners' businesses had three or four things to focus on that everyone knew about and would work towards each year.
He said you must keep the goals clear and not have too many. Someone in Invercargill should understand how they can keep the business winning.
"We have 700 people in this business, and they all need to do different things. But they all need to bubble up to doing the most important things. I will say to people, if you're not spending time on those three or four key strategic priorities, you shouldn't be doing what you're doing."
This year, for example, it is sourcing capability (yes, those Tina ads urging you to sell your cars, cars, cars).
It's Turners' branch extension (it has signed a new property deal for Tauranga and is doubling its footprint in Napier and can sell three times as many cars).
And it's increasing "our operational cadence and efficiency".
"If we do those three things, job done."
A merger
Let's rewind to 2013. Then, listed finance company Dorchester Pacific was upping its stake in what was NZX-listed Turners Auctions, with Baker, then Dorchester chair, signing off on the NZX notices.
That year, Hunter said Turners had lost a major client in insurer IAG, and the company "made something like $6 million", had profit downgrades and had to let some of its staff go.
"We were just at the start of transitioning that business out of being a wholesale auction-focused business into trying in trying to be a retail end-user focused business ... at the time, it was super challenging."
Dorchester also wanted a transition from what was a troubled finance company that fought to survive the infamous second-tier lending collapse, which saw South Canterbury Finance and Hanover Finance, among others, fail.
It wanted all of the Turners business as it looked for ways to increase auto lending and offered Turners shareholders $3 a share in a successful takeover bid.
The firms merged under a new Turners ticker name at the end of 2014, with Dorchester's Baker still the chair and Hunter, the boss of the Turners Auctions, part of the newly merged business.
Former Dorchester boss Paul Byrne said that at the time, the company recognised the inherent value and goodwill in the Turners moniker, which had a lot of history and affection attached to it.
Focus group research highlighted many positive values associated with the Turners brand, including words like trust, integrity, reputable, honest, well recognised, "Kiwiness", championing the public, heritage and longevity, he said.
The Baker effect
Hunter said Baker had an enormous impact on the business. He said the pair "were good foils for each other".
"I spoke to him on Monday afternoon, and he said, 'We're in the 50 now we've got to get in the 20'," Hunter said.
"He's a person who's going to push you along. We all want to do well here. But he has a different perspective. I have a great relationship with him, and I think the way we operate with the whole board is they all have quite big personal stakes in the business. They care deeply about it, which I think is great for alignment with other shareholders."
Those other shareholders now include about half the Turners team.
Hunter said the 50 landmark belongs to them.
He said the company had focused on staff engagement, and because of its highly engaged team, the business was running much better than it had five years ago.
"It's really cool to see them get excited about the company doing well, and they can see their own shareholdings growing, and it's just like anything – positive momentum is such a valuable thing. It's really hard to get, but when you have, it's so powerful."
Thanks for sharing Basil.
Quote from: Basil on Dec 07, 2023, 09:27 AMHe wrote: $5 share price, $50 million pre-tax profit, NZX50.
Someone tell Todd to write down $20 SP, $200m NPBT & NZX20 pronto.
Quote from: LoungeLizard on Dec 06, 2023, 01:26 PMHmmm..what new devilry is this? SP below inclusion price and with a dividend to come in January. Very low volumes so is someone playing games I wonder????
Trying to decide whether instos are playing Game of Thrones or The Hunger Games - one or the other. Run up to 15 Dec will be interesting if PE remains around the present level.
Quote from: LoungeLizard on Dec 05, 2023, 02:07 PMSP heading back to where it was pre-inclusion. Doesn't make much sense to me, but who knows what deals were done behind the scenes by Fund managers. Or maybe they are yet to do their re-balancing?
Fund managers usually just transfer stock between funds. Eg. Fund Manager with both an Active and an Index Fund. Active fund buys stock for the 3 months prior to index inclusion, then transfers it across to the Index Fund. The Active Fund then books the profit. Bonus is then having the Active Fund perform better than the Index Fund as the price drops post index inclusion.
Quote from: KW on Dec 07, 2023, 11:50 AMFund managers usually just transfer stock between funds. Eg. Fund Manager with both an Active and an Index Fund. Active fund buys stock for the 3 months prior to index inclusion, then transfers it across to the Index Fund. The Active Fund then books the profit. Bonus is then having the Active Fund perform better than the Index Fund as the price drops post index inclusion.
The volume in the period leading up to the announcement is not supportive of your theory.
Copy of Muse's post from the other channel on 1 December follows
So its currently estimated that 2.2 million shares may need to be purchased by index trackers. That is 2.5% of TRA shares on issue, or about 72 normal trading days (rolling last 12 month daily average volume is about 30,599 per session).
Daily volume has increased, on the back of good financial performance & releases, but no doubt traders taking early positions. Last 40 trading session average volume is ~47,800, an excess of 17.2k extra per day over those 40 sessions. That is a touch more additional volume than other recent index inclusion experiences at the same trading day before inclusion. That's about 688k excess volume over that period but clearly not all of it will be on account of people buying to on sell to index funds (or potentially index trackers buying via warehousing agents but I wouldn't have thought that process would occur until after the formal announcement).
I'd imagine index funds once the announcement is made will sound out institutional trading desks looking to source large blocks of shares. They could potentially contract up early after the announcement to acquire a set number of shares in the closing process on the eve of inclusion at some prevailing VWAP leading to the close, and also buying on market to fill up the cracks in the intervening period. Then of course there is a hell of a lot of trading amongst traders/investors piggy backing off the momentum.
Either way there is a lot of volume to be traded from next Monday to the 15th of December.
Will be fun to watch and see how it compares to other inclusions, and of course participate in for those inclined!
Gentrack really going hard - my how that one has flown..
Quote from: Basil on Dec 07, 2023, 01:47 PMThe volume in the period leading up to the announcement is not supportive of your theory.
Yes it is. In August TRA was lucky to be doing 6k a day in volume, some days it was sub 1k. End of Sept volume picked up and by Oct it was doing 100k a day.
And buyers have disappeared now. Only 20k total buy orders in. Vol today is back to 14k. If the index funds are buying on market, where are they?
I'll deal with your second question first as that's what's of most interest to others.
Where are the index buyers ? Good question and I admit the pattern exhibited so far in the 10 day index inclusion process is slightly more unusual than what I have seen before at previous rodeo's, of which I have attended many.
It's not unusual to have a burst at the beginning of the ten day inclusion process, as was the case on day 1 and then for it to go quiet for the rest of the first week. I expect peak volume on day's 8,9 and 10 of the process with the likely peak being the final 15 minute match process at the close of trade on 15th.
Look, this was probably the most widely anticipated index inclusion I can recall. I myself have telegraphed its likelihood for several months after backing up the truck at $3.50 a few months ago and adding more along the way.
There is some evidence of above normal volume in the months leading up to this, as Muse outlined in his post, and I was responsible for some of that, and I am sure many others on this, and the other channel had a hand in that as well. I think Muse's post has a very high level of credibility.
The Jarden Direct site has the exact detail of volume by each trading day. The average daily volume in August was 25K shares and only 4 days in October were over 100K. As much as I respect how good your posts normally are, I need to correct the record because you painted a very different picture and there wasn't a single day where volume was less than 1K. Yes, volume picked up in October, but I believe Muse's post is correct that just under 700K extra shares have been bought about normal volumes in the lead up. But from that you need to deduct what I have bought and others on both channels. A lot of that buying is simply people waking up to the value this growth company offers, and many will retain some or most of their shares. I'm not sure if you back out my purchases and others on both channels many at all have been bought to warehouse for index funds. Further, I have the list of the top 20 shareholders, and it's not well supported by institutions at all.
If it comes to it, I'm perfectly happy and relaxed to be left holding the baby with all my shares in Turners because the baby's name is "Tina" 😉
I am very fortunate to have done an optional marketing paper at Auckland Uni and understand the brand building power of the exceptional marketing campaign Turners are running and am very confident indeed about their future. I've posted extensively about their metrics and 10-year CAGR and growth rate outlook before. It's a compelling hold in my view for long term growth. Has all the attributes I look for in a great GARP stock.
P.S. Most on the board have large shareholdings and Todd's family interest is good too with just under 800,000 shares. These guys are working very diligently to make Turners a great success.
Drove past Timaru site today.
Outstanding location.
Looks great.
Great post Basil. I'm too lazy to look at the stats but it had seemed to me that there was a higher than normal volume of trading done in the month or so leading up to inclusion. SO there looks to be little retail buyers now to keep the SP from drifting. It all comes down to whether the Fund Managers are still to join the party.
HLG's had 5 days of manic buying before things went into reverse, so its entirely possible that things won't kick off for TRA until next week, or even in the last few hours of the 10 day period. But as I and others have stated, TRA are a hold no matter what happens. The coming year is already flagged to be a record one and the SP will get to $5 next year imo, whether there's an NZX50 pop or not.
Its probably going to drift back to $4.30 - back to its 50 day MA and to close that gap. The opportunity for a index inclusion trade has been and gone. Got to be quick 8)
Quote from: KW on Dec 07, 2023, 04:39 PMIts probably going to drift back to $4.30 - back to its 50 day MA and to close that gap. The opportunity for a index inclusion trade has been and gone. Got to be quick 8)
Maybe you missed this bit of my post.
QuoteIt's not unusual to have a burst at the beginning of the ten day inclusion process, as was the case on day 1 and then for it to go quiet for the rest of the first week. I expect peak volume on day's 8,9 and 10 of the process with the likely peak being the final 15 minute match process at the close of trade on 15th.
We'll see. Index inclusion requires at least 2.2m shares and there's only 504K done so far, about another 1,700K to go.. Very happy to buy more at $4.30 on the very slim chance you are right.
Quote from: Basil on Dec 07, 2023, 05:15 PMMaybe you missed this bit of my post.We'll see. Index inclusion requires at least 2.2m shares and there's only 504K done so far, about another 1,700K to go.. Very happy to buy more at $4.30 on the very slim chance you are right.
Where did this 2.2m number come from? Nobody knows how much is invested in funds that track the NZ50. And of those funds that do, nobody knows how many actually purchase real shares, and how many use derivatives to track it.
Forsyth Barr do excellent index research. They have calculated the weighting of TRA in the index and estimated the number required. Their index research has proven itself accurate many times before.
There's also the post index inclusion effect with more insto's inclined towards holding NZX50 companies that those outside it. Like I said earlier, there's very little current institutional support for TRA. I foresee insto support increasing in the years ahead.
To be clear I am focused on the investment case here and I think I've made that case very clear already.
Craigs released an excellent note in late November titled On the right TRA-jectory with a price target of $4.93 irrespective of any index inclusion premium or not as the case may be. In my view It's only a matter of time before shareholders see this with a $5 handle and there's a good solid yield paid each quarter, so holders are being paid well to enjoy growth in the years ahead.. It has ALL of the characteristics I look for in terms of a compelling hold of a GARP company. With 7% historical and forecast CAGR it won't take many years before shareholders see a $6 share price and then a $7 handle and so on. That's the power of compounding growth for ya.
The index inclusion thing is like icing on a very fruity, moist and rich Christmas cake. Probably better for you in the long run if don't eat the icing lol
On another note, what is the point of it being listed on the ASX? Most days it doesnt even trade. Just seems an unnecessary cost for such a small company.
Quote from: KW on Dec 08, 2023, 10:51 AMOn another note, what is the point of it being listed on the ASX? Most days it doesnt even trade. Just seems an unnecessary cost for such a small company.
A number of Australian funds are only allowed to buy stocks which are listed (as well) on the ASX. That's the reason for many NZ companies to have an ASX listing, despite most of their trades happening on the NZX.
Not sure though there is a case for TRA, according to Yahoo hold institutions less than 2% of their shares.
Who knows - maybe Grant plans on flogging off his shares at some stage (remember - he did that with other companies) and does not want to unduely reduce the number of institutions who can buy in :);
SP still holding up... actually would like 4.20's next winter as the country hits the wall with OCR rates knocking the heck out of the economy as this is a strong DIV stock as Sir B has highlighted...
Very unlkely there's any chance of the $4.20's again. What impressed me the most with the recent half year result was top line sales growth. As Todd points out, this has a halo effect and flows down into their other profit divisions, insuracne and finance and returns there are earned over time, (the course of the contract). Further, finance attachment rates improved 2% and they are growing their loan book again.
I've already noted the usual pattern of how index inclusion volumes are executed over the course of the 10 day period in post #633 above and I have been following these index inclusion events closely, for many, many years. Could be worthwhile some of you looking how GTK have tracked this week, also going into the index and also a bounce on the first day and trailed off this first week as weak, inexperienced and impatient hands tipped themselves out.
With thanks to Alokdhir on the other channel, we know volumes and VWAP each day so far have been
Day 1 377K $4.822
Day 2 49K $4.746
Day 3 58K $4.638
Day 4 20K $4.634
Day 5 56K $4.628
Total 560K @ VWAP $4.77
Forsyth Barr estimates 2.2m required due to index inclusion. Not all of the buying in this first week would have been index funds so there's more than 1.7m shares required next week.
As mentioned earlier, $4.80 represents 12 times consensus FY24's earnings but also worth noting seeing as FY24 is only a few months from being done and dusted, its only 11.3 times FY25's eps. Based on consensus dps for FY25 of 27 cps at $4.63, (closing price yesterday), the gross yield is 8.1% for FY25 based on 27 cps fully imputed consensus rising to 29 cps, 8.7% for FY26. Possibly worth noting Jarden are predicting annual dividends of 39 cps for FY30, 11.7% gross on $4.63 so that gives you an idea of what sort of dividend growth is possible in the years ahead.
Goes without saying that everyone needs to chart their own future course here but my positive view of this company and its outlook for the future is something I believe I have made a very full effort to discuss and anyone that followed me in a few months back @ $3.50 is already up 32% which is not too shabby considering the NZX50 gross index which includes all dividends paid by index constituents is flat this year.
"$4.20's"
no chance then? oh .. bother ... who is going to buy all those petrol engined cars ....
Quote from: Waltzing on Dec 09, 2023, 12:24 PM"$4.20's"
no chance then? oh .. bother ... who is going to buy all those petrol engined cars ....
Every Tom, Dick and Harry who wants a good cheap car.
Silly of course!!!
Tom, Dick and harry ...
lets hope they save the day !!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=pHj77P1wSeM
I have got myself all excited about Turners. It does look like a well run company - that is growing profit and earnings.
I am just gutted I missed out on $3.5 shares. How was it ever trading that low - genuine question for those that have been around a while?
$4.6 still seems a reasonable price with upside.
Welcome to the forum Dolcile and that's a very good question.
I might take one that seeing as I doggedly backed up the truck @ $3.50.
Turners have sometimes historically claimed their business model was resilient in difficult economic conditions. Even after reporting a record FY23 result, in the call afterwards in late May 2023 they were very conservative and guarded on the outlook citing very strong economic headwinds and not providing guidance for FY24 at that time. They also called out very strong headwinds from the costs of financing their loan book which probably gave the market cause for pause and reflection.
I kept buying because I believe in how they're building their brand over time, (Rome wasn't built in a day), and I understand the value of their multi award winning Tina marketing campaign and I think she has a real rock star effervescent marketing personality that their target market really connects with. Think about the wealth Rod Duke of Briscoes has built with Tammy over the years and you'll get the gist but I think Tina connects with her target market better than Tammy.
I think the half year result and preannouncement leading up to that of another record result for FY24 really caught the market by surprise. Few really believed they were capable of another record result this year in the face of incredibly strong finance cost headwinds. I was buying at that level knowing the finance costs headwinds are transitory and eventually their loan book reprices itself so essentially, I was buying there believing the headwinds come out in the wash in future years.
Hint - It always pays to think 2-3 years ahead with Turners because they are building their brand very strongly over time. You need to think ahead i.e. $4.63 might be really, really cheap 2-3 years from now and that's the risk for those thinking of selling into the index inclusion.
I have a very overweight position but frankly, I am really, really struggling, (and that's after a heck of a lot of thought), to think what I would rebalance into if I choose to somewhat rebalance my position in the future. I am an income and value investor, so I need to see a decent yield, (above 7% or I have no interest and would choose the safety of bonds instead), and a modest PE and the prospect of dividends keeping pace with inflation over time. Frankly I can't think of any other stock I really like to rebalance into at this point.
Quote from: Dolcile on Dec 09, 2023, 10:41 PMI have got myself all excited about Turners. It does look like a well run company - that is growing profit and earnings.
I am just gutted I missed out on $3.5 shares. How was it ever trading that low - genuine question for those that have been around a while?
$4.6 still seems a reasonable price with upside.
Good question & yes, welcome to the forum. Adding to basils response (and maybe looking a bit further into the past) to help you to understand the markets reactions ...
If you look into TRA's history - it grew out of a finance company (Dorchester Pacific), which nearly went bust during the GFC and out of an auction house (Turners). Both had their ups and downs in the past and are inherently cylical and risky businesses. Stocks with a risky past tend to spook their investors easier in an established downtrend (one bitten,twice shy).
If you check TRA's own history over the last decade or so (did they do what they said they are doing?) - they started with great plans to create a "One Stop" car business, bringing everything from purchase over finance, insurance and service / maintenance into one hand. At the time their share price tanked it became clear that they moved away from this target ... and I could well imagine that some of the people believing into their vision just gave up on them during that time, which just helped to maintain the downtrend.
And yes, it does look like (and I think it is) currently a well run company with a great CEO / CFO team, but as indicated before - this was not always the case, and - you never know, it might not always stay that way. If you want to better understand the past, it might help you as well to have a look through the forum discussions (you need to look into the other channel, this forum does not exist for that long) around the times when the TRA SP was really low. Many investors who love it now did had at that stage rather little confidence into the board (myself included). Well - and SP always reflects investors feelings.
Thanks Basil and BlackPeter - that is really useful.
I've been looking at the segment results here (https://imgur.com/a/8JDpSL1) for the last 6 years and I'd love you insights into a couple of things:
1. There are a lot of things going well for the business over the last 6 years, but from a financial perspective the Insurance business has been the star of the show. It makes me nervous that Revenue has been flat, however, profit has increased from $3.6m (FY18) to $12.6m (FY $12.6m) due to the margin expanding from 7.8% to 28.9% :o .
Do you know what has driven such an improvement, it must be some thing fundamental? This is an area that makes me a little nervous - if management were gaming the numbers, the assumption in the actuarial valuation of the Insurance contract liability would be an obvious place.
2. With the talk of the "halo effect" when I looked at the Finance business I expected to see that it would have grown at a similar rate to the Auto retail business. However, in fact the Revenue growth rate has been almost double (48% v 25%) over the 6 years. Would appreciate any insights you have to on this.
3. What actually does the Credit business do, and why has the revenue decreased from $18.7m (FY18) to $9.2M (FY23)?
Other than the above, it is fantastic to see margin increasing on Auto Retail and also that corporate costs have tracked down as a percentage of revenue
Cheers
Dolcile
Also thanks for the warm welcome Basil.
I have a fairly large portfolio of index funds but like you, I'm looking to start building a bit of an Income/Dividend portfolio of NZX listed companies. TRA seems to fit the bill, but there seems to be very few others.
Quote from: Basil on Dec 10, 2023, 10:11 AMI am an income and value investor, so I need to see a decent yield, (above 7% or I have no interest and would choose the safety of bonds instead), and a modest PE and the prospect of dividends keeping pace with inflation over time. Frankly I can't think of any other stock I really like to rebalance into at this point.
What else are you looking at Dolcile?
Another couple of questions on the HY24:
1. does anyone know why "Other costs" are up $2m (25%), to $10m?
2. they say they own 14/31 sites that have a cost of $95m. Have they ever given an indication on the fair value of the property portfolio?
I've made quite a few posts today and am a little tired and it is a Sunday so just in brief
Some of the answers you seek are probably in this presentation http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/422080/407740.pdf
I know from previous presentations and calls that they have done a lot of work around the pricing of policies in their insurance division with Autosure looking very hard at the cost of, for example, mechanical breakdown insurance for European cars. Also, their insurance division has benefited by the increased interest rate environment with funds invested. Todd made the point in his recent retail investor call that they have a huge competitive advantage with their nationwide data analytics of vehicle pricing and insurance repair costs. I think it's clear they've driven a lot more profitability out of their insurance division with smarter pricing.
Oxford finance obviously lends through not just through Turners, but also other outlets as well.
The credit collection and management division has underperformed over the years but they are hopeful of that improving over time.
$2m increase in other cost, no idea sorry but it's not too far out of line with the 15% top line sales growth. Maybe its extra brand building with an expanded tina marketing campaign? Would be good to keep an eye on this and ask management at the next call.
They have previously stated that they are quite a long way in credit with the fair market value of their commercial properties which are recorded at cost, forgive me I cannot recall and am too tired to look it up. Maybe someone else can take that question.
Quote from: Dolcile on Dec 10, 2023, 01:38 PMThanks Basil and BlackPeter - that is really useful.
I've been looking at the segment results here (https://imgur.com/a/8JDpSL1) for the last 6 years and I'd love you insights into a couple of things:
1. There are a lot of things going well for the business over the last 6 years, but from a financial perspective the Insurance business has been the star of the show. It makes me nervous that Revenue has been flat, however, profit has increased from $3.6m (FY18) to $12.6m (FY $12.6m) due to the margin expanding from 7.8% to 28.9% :o .
Do you know what has driven such an improvement, it must be some thing fundamental? This is an area that makes me a little nervous - if management were gaming the numbers, the assumption in the actuarial valuation of the Insurance contract liability would be an obvious place.
2. With the talk of the "halo effect" when I looked at the Finance business I expected to see that it would have grown at a similar rate to the Auto retail business. However, in fact the Revenue growth rate has been almost double (48% v 25%) over the 6 years. Would appreciate any insights you have to on this.
3. What actually does the Credit business do, and why has the revenue decreased from $18.7m (FY18) to $9.2M (FY23)?
Other than the above, it is fantastic to see margin increasing on Auto Retail and also that corporate costs have tracked down as a percentage of revenue
Cheers
Dolcile
I think beagle took already #1 - and yes, I remember as well, that they did some years ago some analysis and discovered that they basically lost money with some of the (mainly European) cars they insured. I suppose they rectified that, which probaly explaines the margin increase for the insurance.
From a personal perspective would I not expect them to be able to keep growing margins at this rate (i.e. this was a one off). If you look at their (Autosure) current insurance conditions and rates ... many of their potential customers might find it in the meantime more economical to pay for a thorough AA check plus self insure for at least one big issue - which would still be cheaper than the cost they now charge for 3 years of insurance plus adding quite unnecessary maintenance costs (like requiring a Diesel service every 10k even if the manufacturer recommends 15k). I know what I am talking about :) ; So - at best they now maximised what they can extort from their customers.
2) I see Finance and Retail as quite separate parts of the business. Sure - more cars sold might mean more opportunities for finance, but there are as well plenty of potential customers around who won't need finance if they buy a car. Do you expect them to send the solvent customers away, just to improve the ratio of fincanced to sold cars? Personally - I bought a lot of cars in my life, but I never asked anybody to finance the deal. Does this mean I should not bother to go to Turners?
3) Credit business has nothing to do with selling or financing cars. They are basically a debt collection agency for anybody who wants to use their services, I assume a relict of the not always good Dorchester Pacific years ... and as a Turners shareholder you would hope that Turners is not in need to extensively use their debt collection service for their own customers ... bad loans are rarely good business.
I think the word extort is a very strong one BP. Todd himself has acknowledged Aaron the CFO has a very strong "commercial" focus. A lot to be admired with a CFO's that not only oversees all the rigorous reporting duties of a listed company but also has a laser focus on helping drive earnings growth.
Quote from: Basil on Dec 10, 2023, 05:47 PMI think the word extort is a very strong one BP. Todd himself has acknowledged Aaron the CFO has a very strong "commercial" focus. A lot to be admired with a CFO's that not only oversees all the rigorous reporting duties of a listed company but also has a laser focus on helping drive earnings growth.
Maybe. And yes, they don't force anybody to sign their contracts. I just see that they in my view reached the peak where they can extract (if you like this word more) the maximum premium out of clients without losing business.
This is good for a business, so nothing wrong about that from a shareholders perspective. Greed is good. It just indicates, that there is (in my view) little additional headroom for them to keep growing the insurance margins.
Quote from: BlackPeter on Dec 10, 2023, 05:59 PMMaybe. And yes, they don't force anybody to sign their contracts. I just see that they in my view reached the peak where they can extract (if you like this word more) the maximum premium out of clients without losing business.
This is good for a business, so nothing wrong about that from a shareholders perspective. Greed is good. It just indicates, that there is (in my view) little additional headroom for them to keep growing the insurance margins.
Probably fair comment but they are selling more cars and therefore more insurance products at the same or similar high insurance margin = more profit growth for the insurance division.
Thanks again all. I managed to pick up a few this morning at an average of $4.63 - so hopefully onward and upwards.
Nicely done. Welcome on board Dolcile.
Moving back up a bit today... is it going to break out past 80..
www.chrislee.co.nz
This week's market news covers Turners.
https://www.chrislee.co.nz/market-news
Thanks, lorraina. This link will take you straight to the article.
Big ouch for Synlait shareholders, I didn't realize it had dropped that much this year :o
Doom spending ....like that phrase
Don't think it applies to Turner's customers though
Quote from: Basil on Dec 11, 2023, 04:05 PMNicely done. Welcome on board Dolcile.
I just wish I had a bit more cash on hand, but had already ploughed this months allocation into our index funds.
Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 11, 2023, 05:09 PMDoom spending ....like that phrase
Don't think it applies to Turner's customers though
My brother who is right into all thing campervans and follows these things says there's very strong demand for campervans in the US as people get into a situation where they can't afford to rent or own a house. Suppose that's a form of doom spending. Back in the day when climate change wasn't such a big deal, my parents did "the big lap" around Australia for 6 months in a campervan, loved it, too hot in places though. I suppose it would take a lot longer than 6 months to do a big lap around north America. You'd certainly want to time the Canada part for their summer, not much fun at 25 degrees below zero in northern Canada or Alaska in a campervan!
Todd recently said 90% of their stock is now <$15K. A basic car is a necessity with our third world public transport system. Not sure that article is on the money really because although finance rates have increased the average sized loan on a car under $15K is quite modest and payments can be spread over several years.
I'm staggered at how low the volume is, aren't the index tracking funds meant to be buying up. Any real demand will surely make this pop
A game of Mexican standoff is currently being played out. They have to buy before the end of this week in huge volume. Patience.
Yes.
Vechiles the No 2 .....
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/kiwis-boost-retail-spending-in-lead-up-to-christmas/67UTVEPPHNFVBBRXXTHSE23LPQ/
not sure if this was already reported on the forum..
Looks as though only about 50% of the required 2.2m shares have been purchased, and a % of those will be retail.
It could be as Basil says - the big institutional spend-up will occur tomorrow, even late tomorrow. Or is something else going on in this re-indexing? Guess we'll find out soon.
I had hoped for $5.50ish but that might be overly optimistic. $5 easily once/if the spend-up commences. Maybe there won't be a big retrenchment afterwards, as their was with HLG, and $5 may become the new base. Great for holders with a January divvy coming ;D
There will be some sort of off market trade happen to balance it all out... bugger as I had tickets!
Pretty quiet around here lately. I get a bit nervous when it is quiet. Get that funny feeling that Elvis has left the building and we little groupies are left holding the baby with a poopy nappy. But not the first time for me...HLG, which is looking like a screaming big buy to me as it was oversold the other day. When the dust settles on TRA will be heading back to HLG to support sp leading back to the next div. PS I hope Elvis hasn't left the building and left us all standing at the alter :(
Patience my friend. Very quiet on GTK so far today which is also going into the index.
The fireworks display commences at 4.45 p.m. Stand well clear or get involved, the choice is yours's.
The other thing is for whatever shares you choose to keep you are holding the baby and she's incredibly beautiful and her name is Tina 😊
Quote from: Basil on Dec 15, 2023, 01:56 PMPatience my friend. Very quiet on GTK so far today which is also going into the index.
The fireworks display commences at 4.45 p.m. Stand well clear or get involved, the choice is yours's.
The other thing is for whatever shares you choose to keep you are holding the baby and she's incredibly beautiful and her name is Tina 😊
Thanks Bas, you give me confidence. I hear a knocking on the door and Elvis has re-entered the building with Tina in tow.
Quote from: Basil on Dec 15, 2023, 01:56 PMPatience my friend. Very quiet on GTK so far today which is also going into the index.
The fireworks display commences at 4.45 p.m. Stand well clear or get involved, the choice is yours's.
The other thing is for whatever shares you choose to keep you are holding the baby and she's incredibly beautiful and her name is Tina 😊
Any ideas on how to maximise the fireworks we get involved with?
LOL. Where to now for sp. I am completely out and thank you Bas. I'll buy you a drink at the next meeting.
Bit of a fizzer today - only $4.68.
I think it's safe to say we were all hoping for more and $4.68, only 2 cents north of the share price on the day of the official announcement of inclusion was somewhat disappointing.
That said, in all my years of following these inclusion events, this was without doubt, in the period leading up, the most widely anticipated index change I can ever recall and it was clear to me a long time before the official announcement that the process was a foregone conclusion so to be honest, I expected a lot of the premium was already built into the price. That said, like everyone else, I am a little disappointed there wasn't a bit more juice in this on the day.
I think at a time like this as the business year draws to a close it pays to have a little recap and be philosophical. Firstly, for those that followed me in when I backed up the truck properly @ ~ $3.50 a few months ago, inclusive of the 6-cent divvy received in late October, you're up 35% in just a few months in a flat year in which the NZX50 has gone nowhere. Objectively, I'd call that an outstanding result by any measure. Even those that bought late last month @ ~ $4.20 just before the half year report have seen an 11% gain in less than a month, not too shabby either.
Those holding, (including myself with a very large shareholding remaining after a portfolio rebalance), at $4.68 will get a 6 cent divvy next month and based on consensus eps brokers forecasts of 40 cps in FY24 and 42.3 cps in FY25 are looking at undemanding forward PEs of 11.7 and 11 respectively. Attractive metrics for what is undoubtedly a very well-managed company on a clear pathway of growth in the years ahead.
There's also the attractive and growing yield to enjoy along the way, paid quarterly and consensus is for 27 cps next year in FY25, fully imputed which is 37.5 cents gross giving a forecast yield of 8% (8.01% to be precise).
No matter whether you chose to rebalance and sell down a bit today or on another day in the index inclusion process, or hold on to all the shares you have, I think everyone is a winner.
Merry Christmas folks.
Job well done there Basil. 8)
Quote from: KW on Dec 15, 2023, 06:22 PMJob well done there Basil. 8)
Yeah ditto, well done Basil, you called it a long time ago and no one should sniff at 30% gains, regardless of how the final closing auction turned out.
Thanks guys. Time for a few cold ones. It's been an interesting year.
Still holding out for the $5 celebration. Might be a while.
Well done Basil and others who picked this stock. Still a great result. One of the top performers on the nzx this year.
Congrats.
Now the excitment is all over what is a 'realistic' price for TRA going forward
I reckon at the moment the share price is heading into the over priced territory ...definitely if it went much higher ...see chart
But we haven't seen the impact of being picked by a few gurus in the Brokers Tips thing next week
IMG_5567.jpeg
What's the relevance of BV when the land and buildings aren't at fair value?
Quote from: Dolcile on Dec 16, 2023, 10:04 AMWhat's the relevance of BV when the land and buildings aren't at fair value?
Are you just stirring or would you have any evidence?
Quote from: Dolcile on Dec 16, 2023, 10:04 AMWhat's the relevance of BV when the land and buildings aren't at fair value?
I could guess what fair value is and 'adjust' accordingly
And your comment could easily be 'what's the relevance of BV when there's $163m of intangibles on the balance sheet'
No not stirring. What I should have said, is, what is the relevance of BV for an entity like Turners?
Quote from: Dolcile on Dec 16, 2023, 10:49 AMNo not stirring. What I should have said, is, what is the relevance of BV for an entity like Turners?
A large part of the business is finance/insurance/property related ...i reckon BV is relevant for these type of companies.
So are PE ratios relevant then?
Price = Earnings X PE .......ROE = Earnings / BV ......... P/BV ratio = Price / BV ........ put all that into a mixing pot and give it a good stir and see there is a relationship between the PE and P/BV ratios
Dolcile ...besides all that what do you consider the main relevant things we should be looking at in Turners
Quote from: BlackPeter on Dec 16, 2023, 10:15 AMAre you just stirring or would you have any evidence?
Fair market value of tra's property is higher than its bv which is at cost, something they've talked to before. Think they've even said what the uplift is at one point as well, but that'll be outdated now.
As at March 21 the property difference was 14m
See page 26 (screenshot file too big to post)
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/378857/354368.pdf
Think they threw in this slide in ASM preso to alleviate fear they might be going broke because of lockdowns etc .....sneaky eh
Got over $100m of property now
FY25 PE is 11.0 for a company that has a historic and prospective CAGR of 7%.
Worth all of what it closed at yesterday in my opinion.
Index inclusion didn't work out as we all had hoped, but no-one who joined the party early enough can't not be happy in getting on board. 30% return in three months- not a bad bit of business.
I'm staying in for the ride in the medium turn as it is clear that TRA are in for another good year, the yield remains attractive and SP of $5 is still very possible.
Thanks again to Basil for another good heads up. That's two for two. Care to go for the trifecta, mate?
You're most welcome mate. 35% to be precise inclusive of October dividend for those who backed up the truck at $3.50 a few months back, and I recall you were one of the astute ones who did. Yes, it's been quite a year with HLG as well eh! :D
I remain with a very high level of conviction on TRA. No other stock I know of on those highly attractive metrics I mentioned above with their track record of growth and outlook for more of the same growth in the years to come. Awesome management too, good guys and growth to come in the long run with their truly brilliant marketing.
The Trifecta. This is the time of year to relax and enjoy some of one's successes. I am sure 2024 will bring its own challenges and opportunities.
Quote from: Basil on Dec 16, 2023, 01:01 PMFY25 PE is 11.0 for a company that has a historic and prospective CAGR of 7%.
Worth all of what it closed at yesterday in my opinion.
At share price of 468 stuff all future growth implied if you use the DDM
Share price should be over 5 bucks to reflect reality I'm my opinion
No disagreement from me mate and the dividend discount model IS the most relevant one for old dog's like us eh.
Craigs price target issued late November is $4.91. That was when the 10 year Govt stock rate was considerably higher than where it currently sits so if adjusted for risk free rate today they agree its 12 month target price is over $5. Its just that everyone, me included (human nature eh) wants that $5+ now.
Who was it that once said the market is a great mechanism for transferring wealth from the impatient to the patient? Buffet ?
Agree forward looking metrics are undemanding at $5.00 and a solid hold at these levels expecting good eps growth, especially with the brand campaign increasing share, new site roll outs and the prospect of finance headwinds turning to tail winds at some point. A well managed company with a clearly articulated strategy with impressive delivery.
Quote from: LoungeLizard on Dec 16, 2023, 06:32 PMIndex inclusion didn't work out as we all had hoped, but no-one who joined the party early enough can't not be happy in getting on board. 30% return in three months- not a bad bit of business.
I'm staying in for the ride in the medium turn as it is clear that TRA are in for another good year, the yield remains attractive and SP of $5 is still very possible.
Thanks again to Basil for another good heads up. That's two for two. Care to go for the trifecta, mate?
See Barramundi thread for the trifecta mate. This horses previous form is a little bit patchy but up for a stellar 2024 is my call. Packed with tech stocks so loves a firm track from falling interest rates. Speaking of such I think we are going to see those finance cost headwinds change to tailwinds for TRA a lot earlier than the RBNZ are currently projecting after that shocking GDP fall confirming a recession earlier this week. RBNZ to start cutting mid 2024 ?
Share price slip sliding away
Guy on other channel reckons 430 by end of week
Yes it will be very interesting to see where it settles after the excitement of index inclusion.
Opportunity to add more under $4 would be great - but I am not that hopeful.
Fiordland Moose has access to all brokers research and kindly posted these consensus numbers for the years ahead a short while back.
QuoteFY25 EPS: 42.36 (PE 11x)
FY26 EPS: 48.85 (PE 10.2x)
FY24 DPS: 25 declared, 34.7 gross (7.5% gross yield @ $4.66 spot)
FY25 DPS: 27 declared, 37.5 gross (8% gross)
FY26 DPS: 29.3 declared,
FY24 only a few months off being done and dusted so my focus is very much on FY25, FY26 and beyond numbers.
Any opportunity, (if presented) to buy at 10 times next years eps (FY25 42.36 cps) would certainly command a lot of my attention.
One very expensive Ferrari. ......[ or two cheapies ]
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/423731/409831.pdf
Quote from: lorraina on Dec 18, 2023, 04:43 PMOne very expensive Ferrari. ......[ or two cheapies ]
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/423731/409831.pdf
Hmm - I was wondering where all these cheap shares at index inclusion came from. So it was Grant who spoilt the fun for everybody?
Is this what people call a mean streak ... or does he think the share is not more worth?
I do not know how you can say that without knowing what model Ferrari he has bought...lol
Quote from: BlackPeter on Dec 18, 2023, 05:13 PMHmm - I was wondering where all these cheap shares at index inclusion came from. So it was Grant who spoilt the fun for everybody?
Is this what people call a mean streak ... or does he think the share is not more worth?
Not a good sign when insiders SELL is it Peter
Quote from: BlackPeter on Dec 18, 2023, 05:13 PMHmm - I was wondering where all these cheap shares at index inclusion came from. So it was Grant who spoilt the fun for everybody?
Is this what people call a mean streak ... or does he think the share is not more worth?
Of the 4.2m shares traded, Grant made up about 10% of it, so the remaining 90% came from elsewhere. As a SSH he had to report, his colleagues however didn't and I wouldn't be at all surprised if a few of them unloaded at least some of their shares into the inclusion.
The Board have said some time ago, multiple times, that they considered the share price to be too low. I guess now they're saying with a share sale, they think the company SP is at fair price. Either way Grant still has a shedload of shares.
Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 18, 2023, 02:02 PMShare price slip sliding away
Guy on other channel reckons 430 by end of week
Hey, I said that first!
https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/motors/cars/ferrari/sf90-stradale/listing/4361085963
The most expensive Ferrari listed on Trade Me is still for sale so maybe 1000 horsepower and a top speed of 340 k.p.h. isn't powerful or quick enough lol
He sold just under 7% of his stake, a lot lower percentage than some dog I know did lol. You can't blame the guy for wanting to have some fun. He still has 6 million shares !
Speaking of very fast vehicles. Ingress and egress from this 620 horsepower beast is a lot easier than a Ferrari. https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/motors/cars/bmw/x5/listing/4449104220
Hmmm...can't say I am not tempted.
Quote from: Basil on Dec 18, 2023, 08:38 PMhttps://www.trademe.co.nz/a/motors/cars/ferrari/sf90-stradale/listing/4361085963
The most expensive Ferrari listed on Trade Me is still for sale so maybe 1000 horsepower and a top speed of 340 k.p.h. isn't powerful or quick enough lol
He sold just under 7% of his stake, a lot lower percentage than some dog I know did lol. You can't blame the guy for wanting to have some fun. He still has 6 million shares !
Speaking of very fast vehicles. Ingress and egress from this 620 horsepower beast is a lot easier than a Ferrari. https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/motors/cars/bmw/x5/listing/4449104220
Hmmm...can't say I am not tempted.
Sell TRA / buy MFB based on nothing except what the people in the know are doing ......
🤔
sell TRA... buy MFB .....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0FPYp8k619g
Another director selling on the recent high
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/423747/409853.pdf
Ferrari's all round.
Quote from: Buzz on Dec 18, 2023, 06:05 PMOf the 4.2m shares traded, Grant made up about 10% of it, so the remaining 90% came from elsewhere. As a SSH he had to report, his colleagues however didn't and I wouldn't be at all surprised if a few of them unloaded at least some of their shares into the inclusion.
The Board have said some time ago, multiple times, that they considered the share price to be too low. I guess now they're saying with a share sale, they think the company SP is at fair price. Either way Grant still has a shedload of shares.
You might want to re-check the NZX rules. Any insider (no matter whether they are SSH or not) have to report any changes in holding.
But yes, I think they have a full week or so, and I notice that Matthew Harrison announced today that he did unload as well (some 200k odd shares).
Of course am I sure, that they all did this just considering the common good. Increasing liquidity is important for the market and hey, our directors are sacrificing themselves by selling their parcels.
Anybody still remembering the time when the CBL directors sacrificed themselves by unloading their shares in order to increase liquidity?
Directors have seen good gains over the years as part of their hard work. The issue for anyone with a decent sized holding that's grown in value strongly is that it can become a disproportionate percentage of their net wealth, just as it did for me with Turners. So with a big holding, if you're not going to rebalance due to an index event or an index rebalance when are you going to sell?...there simply isn't the liquidity.
In both these cases these sales represented very small percentages of the directors' holdings, and they remain VERY heavily invested in the business, something you can't say about all that many other companies on the NZX. Believe me, I trimmed my position after significant gains by a heck of a lot higher percentage than the directors did. Does that make me an evil capitalist too as some are implying the directors are?
I get it that some people like to follow insiders but be careful who your follow and think about the reasons they might have moved their position. I sold a decent chunk of WHS shares to the CEO at $4.10 not that long ago. How's he going with them lol Comparing their sales with CBL directors selling is not a relevant comparison and disingenuous at best.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/423747
Matthew becoming another Ferrari owner.?
You can't fish for a bite with the same bait twice lol
Why not if it really works.?...lol
It was all downhill when Jayne and others sold their shares
Jayne who and when.?
Quote from: lorraina on Dec 19, 2023, 11:25 AMWhy not if it really works.?...lol
Too busy to bite as I'm in a race to get to the Ferrari dealer and buy mine before they sell out :D
If they do ring Grant.
Possibly have a spare one or two...lol
ps.Don't forget to ask for a shareholders' discount.
EV imports takes a HIT... this may have been noted on the forum already.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/imports-take-a-tumble-in-november-but-we-still-have-a-trade-deficit/6K5JLY7H45AKFNBJQXAN54724Y/
Looks as though I was wrong about Grant buying another Ferrari.
From MEE agm today;
MTL Securities has indicated that it would
underwrite the first $2 million of a rights issue capital raising.
Respect that he is at least giving it a decent go from what appears to be a very difficult position at MEE.
I think a lot of others would have simply thrown in thew towel and bought another Ferrari instead. Maybe he has enough of them already lol
Anyway...back to Turners. Is mid $4's where it's at for now or will we see it back test the gap on the chart at $4.30 ?
That's the $64,000 question.
BusinessDesk must be a bit short on news .......publishing stuff like this lol
It's about Tina
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/markets/tina-from-turners-took-two-hours-to-create
Maybe paywalled
Great article which unpacks the true brilliance of the Tina marketing campaign. Brilliance like that doesn't happen by "accident", it happens when extremely clever people get together and collaborate and create something truly special which will underpin Turners growth for many years to come. Very comfortable continuing to hold a good-sized stake and happy to add to it on any untoward share price weakness.
Closed the first week after the excitement of index inclusion at $4.60 only 8 cents below the index inclusion settlement price last week of $4.68. Maybe a lower-than-expected match price last week means a much lower than expected pop from an arguably much smaller bubble. Thoughts ?
About time they changed Turners ticker to TINA
TINA ....BEEP BEEP
I recon the week before Xmas portfolio balance has stopped it sinking away. On the whole it's been a pretty good week!
"TINA ....BEEP BEEP"
Winner() have you started xmas early and your doing the rounds, tasting in Wineries in Marlborough?
TRA becomes TBB!
Ok now there is something that TRA - TBB! can do to support the Western free world and that is to donate some black or green, or white 3 series BMW to ukraine to become mobile rocket firing front line combat cars...
Tina could jump up and down beside the cars and shout ... BOOM, BOOM,BOOM....
yes i know...
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/12/22/watch-bmw-repurposed-into-rocket-launcher-ukrainian-forces/
Great advertising for TBB ...
She could soon run for local council...
LOL Adds new meaning to BMW's claim of being the ultimate driving machine.
"Adds new meaning to BMW's claim of being the ultimate driving machine."
CLASSIC !!!!!
Update, its a 7 series and the press have got it wrong...
Aaahhh...that makes sense, lots more room. The latest 7 series is built like a tank and arguably so ugly the rockets instead of being fired from it, should be fired at it lol https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/motors/cars/bmw/i7/listing/4457001239 Thankfully these are extremely uncommon and there's only 1 on trade me so with a bit of luck you'll never have to see its ugliness on the road in the metal.
The land at Worsleys Road,Cashmere Hills owned by Turners' Oxford Finance Ltd has been sold to CDL Land [a CDL company]
for $5.53 mil.
The land is likely to be divided into 60 sections.
Quote from: lorraina on Dec 29, 2023, 08:07 AMThe land at Worsleys Road,Cashmere Hills owned by Turners' Oxford Finance Ltd has been sold to CDL Land [a CDL company]
for $5.53 mil.
The land is likely to be divided into 60 sections.
Good it's gone ...cash to build more productive stuff ....and put more Tina ads on the telly
Quote from: lorraina on Dec 29, 2023, 08:07 AMThe land at Worsleys Road,Cashmere Hills owned by Turners' Oxford Finance Ltd has been sold to CDL Land [a CDL company]
for $5.53 mil.
The land is likely to be divided into 60 sections.
Sounds like a win-win.
Discl: hold both :) ;
Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 29, 2023, 08:50 AMGood it's gone ...cash to build more productive stuff ....and put more Tina ads on the telly
Agreed. Todd and Aaron are very smart guys. I am sure they would have made the decision believing the price achieved was most advantageous and they could use the capital more productively elsewhere.
Quote from: BlackPeter on Dec 29, 2023, 09:03 AMSounds like a win-win.
Discl: hold both :) ;
Agree. Like this land acquisition as a CDL and MCK shareholder and confident TRA will recycle productively.
Quote from: Mos on Dec 29, 2023, 09:20 AMAgree. Like this land acquisition as a CDL and MCK shareholder and confident TRA will recycle productively.
RV (8/22) of $7,692,500... on that bare metric (28% under) it looks a good pick up for CDL.
Quote from: Hectorplains on Dec 29, 2023, 09:29 AMRV (8/22) of $7,692,500... on that bare metric (28% under) it looks a good pick up for CDL.
Thanks for that information Hectorplains. Very interesting. Definitely has the hallmarks of a good value purchase in a good location.
The land was mortgaged to Dorcester,and when the borrower defaulted Dorcester took possession of it.
So Turners have owned it for a very long time.
Ideal investment for CDL.Will cost a lot to develop,but on the hill over looking Christchurch the sections will command a hefty price.
Phew ... at least they'll have the cash to pay upcoming dividend ...well timed eh ;D 8) :-X ;)
Quote from: Hectorplains on Dec 29, 2023, 09:29 AMRV (8/22) of $7,692,500... on that bare metric (28% under) it looks a good pick up for CDL.
Maybe but according to one large developer I spoke with a few months ago the value of bare development land around Auckland has halved since the peak of the market, (no idea about Chch). There are many reasons for this including the cost of developing bare land has skyrocketed in recent years, especially in hilly area's.
Just a little bit of further anecdotal stuff about how the market has changed this year that might be of interest to you guys, Todd recounted the story of their very recent Tauranga land acquisition at the recent retail zoom meeting, a summary of which as best I can recall is the vendor early in 2023 wanted $11m and Turners offered $10.5m The vendor refused but then came back to them later in 2023 and said he would take their $10.5m but Todd said, not so fast, the market has changed a lot with higher interest rates and they eventually agreed, (and I am going off memory here) on $8.7m. Turners own assessment of what they were prepared to pay reduced by more than 17% in less than a year.
Turners are satisfactorily capitalized with plenty of headroom with debt facilities so don't need the money so I would wager they got a good deal relative to where they see current fair value for that property.
Anyway...changing gears to have another look at the bigger picture now the dust has settled a bit after index inclusion, what's been a bit interesting about Turners is how the share price has performed so far after the event. Its barely changed, down just 8 cents. Due to go ex a 6 cent fully imputed dividend in early January so sellers are really only getting a net $4.54 now if they sell at $4.60.
Based on ex divvy SP of $4.54 and average brokers estimates for FY25 of 42.3 cps, given FY24 is only 3 months away from being done and dusted, they trade on a forward prospective PE of only 10.7 times FY25 eps and 8.25% gross yield (27cps fully imputed = 37.5cps gross / $4.54). Those are very attractive metrics for a company with a 10-year CAGR of 7% and an outlook for more of the same going forward.
More importantly looking further ahead, I think Turners are extremely well positioned to grow earnings in a falling interest rate environment with finance cost tailwinds in their loan book so the prospective FY25 PE looks compelling to me. My base assessment, and I think there's widespread agreement on this on here and the other channel, is Turners should really have popped higher on index inclusion so it not falling much afterwards shouldn't really be a surprise.
Disc: I have been back buying at this price level as this is the most compelling GARP stock on the NZX in my opinion.
I see what you did there Basil with changing gears. Agree, TRA well positioned to motor ahead over next few years and represents good value at $4.60. The strong dividend yield and dividend growth profile is attractive.
Motor ahead, like it...but what sort of motor Mos? My theory. I used to own a supercharged V8 as a younger man and when that supercharger was cranking...oh my goodness, forward progress was absolutely ballistic.
Being semi-retired and retiring at some stage in the not-too-distant future that dividend growth profile is incredibly attractive to me. Heck, Jarden's estimating 39 cps in FY30! That's supercharged growth for you as lower interest rates generate the high-octane fuel to boost strong earnings and dividend growth in the years ahead. With Todd at the wheel and Aaron navigating, we're onto a Winner!
TRA said half year EPS up 7% on prior year
With CPI up 5.6% and population up 2.7% in real terms on a per capita basis TRA profits declined
Need to do better than that eh
Post inspired by Basil talking about real per capita stuff on another thread [\size)
W69.
Take a trip to Timaru and marvel at Turners site.
All the time improving their retail positioning,resulting in real market share increases.
Been very resilient in incredibly tough conditions this year. Really impressive. Wait till the lower interest rates supercharger starts cranking mate, then we'll see some serious growth. Maybe RBNZ starts cutting in early to mid 2024 and as lorraina has mentioned above, all the time they're expanding their branch network, and also growing their market share with brilliant marketing.
Quote from: lorraina on Dec 29, 2023, 01:04 PMW69.
Take a trip to Timaru and marvel at Turners site.
All the time improving their business and retail positioning,resulting in real market share increases.
Loved Winners comment on the other channel that it's a shame in the 2024 stock picking competition you can't pick TRA five times lol. Couldn't have said it better myself.👍
Quote from: Basil on Dec 31, 2023, 12:09 PMLoved Winners comment on the other channel that it's a shame in the 2024 stock picking competition you can't pick TRA five times lol. Couldn't have said it better myself.👍
Concentrated portfolio with just TRA in it to maximise returns rather than probably getting lower return from a diversified 5 stock 'portfolio' ......likely to get get one of two 'disappointments' to lower return eh
Dead right...The way the NZX and N.Z. economy is mate, I think the risk is more likely two or three other disappointments, maybe even four !
Conventional wisdom states that a diversified portfolio is fundamental to good investing but with the NZX50 only increasing about 2.5% and most "diversified" index funds struggling to make a positive return at all, it could be wiser to just pick a few stocks - like TRA - and diversify across asset classes, bonds and terms deposits primarily. In a bear market, the diversification rule doesn't seem to hold up, imo.
Be interesting seeing where these stocks finish at end of 2024.
Stock........Current share price.
2CC...................82 cents.
GNE...................$2.505
HGH..................$1.48
HLG...................$5.20.
KFL...................$1.22
KPG...................87.5 cents
OCA..................76 cents
SPK....................$5.18
TRA...................$4.59.
And on Unlisted.
PAZ....................30 cents.
SFF....................$1.25
Quote from: lorraina on Dec 31, 2023, 04:39 PMBe interesting seeing where these stocks finish at end of 2024.
Stock........Current share price.
2CC...................82 cents. +160%
GNE...................$2.505. +0%
HGH..................$1.48. -17%
HLG...................$5.20. -4%
KFL...................$1.22. -12%
KPG...................87.5 cents. -4%
OCA...................86 cents -0%
SPK....................$5.18. -4%
TRA...................$4.59. +40%
And on Unlisted.
PAZ....................30 cents.
SFF....................$1.25
Last 52 week change noted to right of Lorraine's numbers
If it wasn't for second hand car dealers pretty bad year
Hooe 2024 is far better
Recently read TRA up 49% inclusive of dividends this year.
How do I fit "I Love Tina" onto a personalized plate ?
Quote from: Basil on Dec 31, 2023, 07:12 PMRecently read TRA up 49% inclusive of dividends this year.
How do I fit "I Love Tina" onto a personalized plate ?
ILVTNA
And ... drum roll ... it's available here https://www.kiwiplates.nz/create/
Quote from: Crackity on Dec 31, 2023, 05:01 PMWishful thinking on the OCA price Percy......
Thanks have corrected.
Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 31, 2023, 06:23 PMLast 52 week change noted to right of Lorraine's numbers
If it wasn't for second hand car dealers pretty bad year
Hooe 2024 is far better
Yes and would have not been flash in Aussie except for ACF,ATP and CNW that saved the day...lol.
Quote from: Basil on Dec 31, 2023, 02:34 PMDead right...The way the NZX and N.Z. economy is mate, I think the risk is more likely two or three other disappointments, maybe even four !
Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 31, 2023, 01:28 PMConcentrated portfolio with just TRA in it to maximise returns rather than probably getting lower return from a diversified 5 stock 'portfolio' ......likely to get get one of two 'disappointments' to lower return eh
With all due respect ... I think many of us discovered the benefits of diversification only when it was too late. Don't we all remember the guy who put all his eggs into the winning A2 basket? How did this go for him, despite claiming to watch the basket with eagles eyes?
Sure, different scenario and surely - could never happen to TRA, can it? However - some things stay:
... NOBODY can predict the future
... GROUP THINK is ALWAYS dangerous and ...
... DIVERSIFICATION has been proven sensible across the millenia.
Even the good book (whatever one might think about it) recommends it.
... there are always ohter good companies around as well, and some might even be better :) ;
Just to be clear ... I hold TRA and think it is a great company.
However - I would not know what turn the road into the future might take (even for a company with a good leadership team), and neither can anybody else.
Anyway - Happy 2024 everybody!
Quote from: BlackPeter on Jan 01, 2024, 10:20 AMWith all due respect ... I think many of us discovered the benefits of diversification only when it was too late. Don't we all remember the guy who put all his eggs into the winning A2 basket? How did this go for him, despite claiming to watch the basket with eagles eyes?
Sure, different scenario and surely - could never happen to TRA, can it? However - some things stay:
... NOBODY can predict the future
... GROUP THINK is ALWAYS dangerous and ...
... DIVERSIFICATION has been proven sensible across the millenia.
Even the good book (whatever one might think about it) recommends it.
... there are always ohter good companies around as well, and some might even be better :) ;
Just to be clear ... I hold TRA and think it is a great company.
However - I would not know what turn the road into the future might take (even for a company with a good leadership team), and neither can anybody else.
Anyway - Happy 2024 everybody!
Yep, sensible thinking. Eggs in one basket is NEVER a good idea. In a bear share market though "spreading" the risk across one asset class ie the share market, does nothing more than expose one to the general downtrend. In volatile times 'spreading the risk" means investing across asset classes and at the moment 60% of my funds are tied up in term deposits and 20% in bonds. That's why I'm comfortable in investing in only about a handful stocks, including TRA, GNE, STU, IFT and - ahem - PEB. TRA aside, in this market I figure macro trends trump company data and I'm picking the energy, infrastructure, IT and technology sectors to outperform the general index in the year ahead.
Good luck to all in 2024. ;D
Further to discussion on HGH thread I've done a sum of the parts valuation of Turners
Assumed Auto Retail F24 NPAT of $20m with Finance, indsurancenetc NP.AT of $15m. Allocated exorbitant HQ costs across both parts,
Gave Auto retail with its brilliant market a PE of 16 and finance stuff 11
That comes to $465m or $5.28 per share
So that's my valuation on those assumptions.... $5.28
Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 03, 2024, 03:44 PMFurther to discussion on HGH thread I've done a sum of the parts valuation of Turners
Assumed Auto Retail F24 NPAT of $20m with Finance, indsurancenetc NP.AT of $15m. Allocated exorbitant HQ costs across both parts,
Gave Auto retail with its brilliant market a PE of 16 and finance stuff 11
That comes to $465m or $5.28 per share
So that's my valuation on those assumptions.... $5.28
I assume you did build in some ongoing growth, did you? Without growth would the PE of 16 look a bit dear.
But then, I see they had over the last 10 years an annual earnings CAGR of 12.9 (no idea though, how much from selling used bangers and how much from financing them) - and analysts give them for the next 3 years an ongoing earnings CAGR of 6.7 (which is good, but slower than the last 10 years);
Given that your target SP looks pretty conservative.
For what its worth - if I take the growth into consideration (and sure, things may change), I'd see them at this stage fairly valued around $6.50.
Quote from: BlackPeter on Jan 03, 2024, 05:14 PMI assume you did build in some ongoing growth, did you? Without growth would the PE of 16 look a bit dear.
But then, I see they had over the last 10 years an annual earnings CAGR of 12.9 (no idea though, how much from selling used bangers and how much from financing them) - and analysts give them for the next 3 years an ongoing earnings CAGR of 6.7 (which is good, but slower than the last 10 years);
Given that your target SP looks pretty conservative.
For what its worth - if I take the growth into consideration (and sure, things may change), I'd see them at this stage fairly valued around $6.50.
Goes XD on 7th January. Yield of 5%.
I did a valuation as a group a while back and came up with intrinsic value pretty close to what you suggested BP.
Might take a while to get there though ;)
Fortunately, we are being paid well to be patient and with consensus of 27 cps fully imputed next year that's 37.5 cps gross = 8.26% gross based on a theoretical ex divvy price of $4.54. Can be boosted to 8.26 / 0.98 = 8.43% gross with the 2% DRIP discount and that's only next year's yield (FY25). Turners are very proud of the fact that over the last several years they have increased the dividend by 40%. If they do that again over the next 4 years they'll be paying ~ 38 cps by FY29.
If that is the case is this one of the only stocks on the NZX that might be a HOLD....
I have recently been to two motor sport movies.
Jackie Stewart .
Ferrari.
Both were excellent.
Behind the scenes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MuH7G4N-dYU&pp=ygUNZmVycmFyaSBtb3ZpZQ%3D%3D
NZ Used Car Sales.
December sales were unusually high at 12,806 and the second highest month in 21 months.
Good news for both Turners and 2CC.
https://sendy.tarawera.co.nz/l/J6oLVth2f3f6IXNYvUBQEg/zzk0KqrQbREEyauBkllAxA/BFgy5zZ4P4YvjEwYnYsz7Q
Jeez, 10% share at least is 1,280 sales for Turners ...plus all the add ons from this fully integrated outfit
Massive December .....Tina is amazing
If Todd doesn't mention at next update that FY24 npat going to be in excess of $50m then he's either playing games or telling lies
Quote from: kiwi2007 on Oct 31, 2023, 12:28 PMFrom the UK: Not sure whether it applies here though?
Average electric car insurance costs rose 72 per cent in the year to September, compared with 29 per cent for petrol and diesel models, according to Confused.com. The price comparison site notes that premiums for Tesla Model 3s, the most quoted EV on the site, rose more than two-thirds in the past two years.
EV claims are typically 25 per cent higher than combustion equivalents and take 14 per cent longer for repairs, according to research from Thatcham.
A combination of high costs and volatile outcomes means many EVs are simply being written off for damage that traditional vehicles would survive.
As higher insurance makes EVs less attractive, adoption rates will adjust accordingly.
Hertz to sell one third of it's EV's — customers don't want them and they cost too much to fix
https://joannenova.com.au/2024/01/hertz-to-sell-one-third-of-its-evs-customers-dont-want-them-and-they-cost-too-much-to-fix/
Warning this post is frivolous
...
Gosh ... EV's fleet sold off?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Wu0WoQcO48
this day in space ...
petrol engine junk here to stay ... not really good ... bikes after all and Horses?
Really enjoying the weather providing some fabulous summer conditions for boating. Good to be on holiday giving my brain a rest. This came on the radio yesterday while anchored up enjoying some drinks in the late afternoon sun. Cranked the stereo system right up and thought to myself...Turners really is simply the best. Glad I kept plenty after index inclusion. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GC5E8ie2pdM
Happy holidays folks.
Bought back some more today. 1 month to the day since index inclusion and taking into account the 6 cent divvy its shed since then it's only down 2 cents !
$6 by mid - late next year is on the cards I reckon
Quote from: Basil on Jan 15, 2024, 07:00 PMBought back some more today. 1 month to the day since index inclusion and taking into account the 6 cent divvy its shed since then it's only down 2 cents !
$6 by mid - late next year is on the cards I reckon
lol let's first hit the magical $5/shr before contemplating future milestones
one thing I reflect on are the short term unknowns/impacts that the regulatory changes will throw up. article below is on new car sales - not used - but shows the huge surge in EV sales and dive in ICE. There is a brief mention of used imported cars but that only tells a part of the story given TRA's position in securing domestic stock. But it's still worthy of reflecting on. I did a bit of work on the regulatory sector changes but have already forgotten it all but I think its fair to assume there could be a few months of turbulence which could feature into TRA's Q3 and Q4 (and hopefully balance each other out)
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/125835/december-sales-new-cars-traditional-internal-combustion-engines-tails-sharply
TRA doesn't have the same position in EV's that 2CC has who I'd expect in the very short term to benefit the most from. However what comes next I'd imagine could be the inverse all things equal (though I imagine 2cc will quickly look to pivot its purchasing mix)
For my holding I wouldn't bat an eyelid if TRA missed a bit on expectations due to regulatory impact as I can imagine a surge in people that had been holding off purchasing a used UTE/SUV until this year. But as I say I reflect on it in terms of deploying/reinvesting additional capital & timing - not impossible to see a little dip if punters panic should expectations not be met given a period of regulatory change. TRA have certainly aired a lot of confidence in trading and outlook so who knows
TRA source about 90% of their stock here that's already registered so I foresee little impact on their business from recent incentive scheme changes for new and imported vehicles.
2CC were doing close to 50% of their business with incentive based product so are likely to see a strong Q3 and weaker Q4 until they pivot their model in FY25.
Quick reaction by one used car firm;
https://mailchi.mp/24d681bcceaa/black-friday-sale-enjoy-300-off-all-cars-6160205?e=f3df0e38d4
Waltzing sent me this. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/1000year-to-drive-your-ev-road-user-charges-for-electric-vehicles-from-april-1-transport-minister-simeon-brown-confirms/FYK45LJ3ZJD6LOJONCPO47AOHI/
So there we have it, the Govt's decision on road user charges for new energy vehicles. Road user charges of $76 per 1,000 km's for EV's and $53 per 1,000 km's for PHEV's. The RUC rate for PHEV's looks expensive to me...some of which only have a very short range on electric power.
Without up front incentives, and with much higher initial capital cost and now road user charges, I predict we will see a huge swing back to petrol and diesel powered vehicles.
P S Reported elsewhere, this is the first step towards all vehicles being subjected to road user charges !
Quote from: Basil on Jan 16, 2024, 07:41 PMWaltzing sent me this. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/1000year-to-drive-your-ev-road-user-charges-for-electric-vehicles-from-april-1-transport-minister-simeon-brown-confirms/FYK45LJ3ZJD6LOJONCPO47AOHI/
So there we have it, the Govt's decision on road user charges for new energy vehicles. Road user charges of $76 per 1,000 km's for EV's and $53 per 1,000 km's for PHEV's. The RUC rate for PHEV's looks expensive to me...some of which only have a very short range on electric power.
Without up front incentives, and with much higher initial capital cost and now road user charges, I predict we will see a huge swing back to petrol and diesel powered vehicles.
P S Reported elsewhere, this is the first step towards all vehicles being subjected to road user charges !
Makes a lot of sense. If they use the road, they should as well pay for it. It was absolutly unfair that drivers of old cars with combustion engine had to subsidize rich Tesla drivers ...
Might be as well sensible to subject all vehicles to RUC, instead of charging RUC to some and fuel tax to others. Of course only, if we take at the same time the fuel tax off from petrol. The current system is inconsistent and unfair.
Perhaps a saviour for ERD as well ...
I think the $56 for PHEVs is a bit high, most would only do 50-80 Kms on a charge. I would have thought about half of the EV rate max.
However, moving to full RUC for everyone and a subsequent drop in fuel taxes would make sense to me
TRA seems have a resistance at 4.60, if it breaks that then looks like it will be a support
perhaps lower bound 4.10 ish...
Used cars seems to be the right sector to be in at present.
Tough going for Colonial Motor Co.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/424973
Quote from: Jay on Jan 17, 2024, 08:14 PMI think the $56 for PHEVs is a bit high, most would only do 50-80 Kms on a charge. I would have thought about half of the EV rate max.
However, moving to full RUC for everyone and a subsequent drop in fuel taxes would make sense to me
TRA seems have a resistance at 4.60, if it breaks that then looks like it will be a support
Guy in the Herald saying his PHEV only does 23km's Ouch, he is going to wear double charges for a while until all vehicles attract RUC
Quote from: lorraina on Jan 18, 2024, 06:48 PMUsed cars seems to be the right sector to be in at present.
Tough going for Colonial Motor Co.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/424973
Jeez - if the year continues this way, it will bring their earnings back to 2014/2015 numbers.
On the other hand - SP at that time was around $6, so maybe some good buying opportunities coming up :) ?
Hertz being downgraded in the US... EV repair problems related to workshop access...
Hybrids going to be around for along time to come and the EV markets takes a tumble ... im sure everyone noticed the news on the cut back in Ford's EV production..
Next market update for TRA should make for very interesting reading..
last years update ....
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/407909
whats the bets for this up and coming result ?
"Reaffirming guidance from October, 2023, that after a strong HY, FY24 result is expected to be ahead of FY23."
Good interview with Todd on Sharesies.
'Tina's Turners remains robust in tough times' https://youtu.be/oRQFJovzuHs?si=P8-0nuePR1drPaQm
Quote from: The Kid on Feb 02, 2024, 10:39 AMGood interview with Todd on Sharesies.
'Tina's Turners remains robust in tough times' https://youtu.be/oRQFJovzuHs?si=P8-0nuePR1drPaQm
Thanks for sharing. Todd speaks about Turners approach to business and earnings growth drivers very well - branch roll out, shifting wholesale sales to retail sales, and improving finance margins with interest rates declining. And we know there is also value being created from smart property moves and a real focus on team engagement. A lot to like.
Disc. Hold
Agree 100% Mos. Lots to like about the senior management team too. Talent and experience by the truck load.
V happy holder. Interesting to note the share price is now 5 cents higher that the closing match price on index inclusion in mid-December, (adjusted for the 6 cps fully imputed divvy recently paid).
SP up 10c today. Todd is very good at boosting investor confidence!
Yes, he looks well rested too and ready for another busy year ahead. Exceptionally good at very clearly articulating and delivering on strategy.
Both Turners and Comvita keep harping on about $50m targets
Wonder who'll get there first
Big changes in the type of vehicles now being sold. I wouldn't want to be a local EV distributor with a big lot of EV or PHEV stock at the moment.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/ev-sales-plunge-petrol-and-diesel-vehicles-surge/QLKTML3R35HZXGXW2CJIZVLMB4/
Road user charges are going to kill EV and PHEV sales. When you consider the much higher up front capital cost of most EV's and PHEV's, their much higher depreciation because of their higher initial cost, add the cost to charge them and then road user charges, the economics are simply not there any more.
Hybrids will do well. Test driving one of these tomorrow. Not this one but the same model https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/motors/cars/nissan/x-trail/listing/4193748848 Be interesting to see how it goes. Apparently drives like an EV with the generator motor powering a small lithium ion battery but no plugging in so no road user charges. Has a truck load of kit for $60K. Won Australia mega test of SUV's for best SUV in 2023.
My car 5 years old this month. Might change or maybe not. Still quite like it.
P.S. Bought a few more TRA on the close today.
Quote from: winner (n) on Feb 04, 2024, 03:51 PMBoth Turners and Comvita keep harping on about $50m targets
Wonder who'll get there first
Wanted to say THL ... until I realized that they are harping about twice the number (100m, which would be more than doubling the latest EPS). So. lets say TRA - they only need to increase their earnings by 52% to reach the magic 50.
But Comvita? 50m NPAT, starting from a loss? Not sure ... maybe they have their honey assets insured at sales value and the store burns down ... this might fix it. They should talk with FBU about insurance payouts, I hear they have experience.
BP - Also test driving the new Kia Sportage hybrid tomorrow...very impressed with my wife's Kia Sportage diesel but the new hybrid is rated at only 5.4 liters per 100 km's and is more powerful.
Quote from: Basil on Feb 05, 2024, 05:47 PMBP - Also test driving the new Kia Sportage hybrid tomorrow...very impressed with my wife's Kia Sportage diesel but the new hybrid is rated at only 5.4 liters per 100 km's and is more powerful.
Had a look at the hybrid (well, last years model) before we bought the diesel.
No complaints about power and consumption ... but it would have taken us many decades to payback the difference in purchase price ...
I was not sure whether we live long enough for that :p ;
$6,700 price difference is not chump change but you do get more power, 169kw's v 137kw's as well as lower fuel consumption. Based on 13,000 km's per annum, diesel at $2.30, 91 Octane at $2.80, road user charges at $76 per 1000 km's, official fuel consumption rating of 7.3 L per 100 km's for the diesel and 5.4 L 100 km's for the hybrid I calculate the running cost difference at $1,205 cheaper per year for the hybrid and the payback period is 5.5 years which seems lik,e a perfectly reasonable period of time to recover the cost seeing as the hybrid battery has warranty cover for 8 years.
I also expect the hybrid to have a higher resale due to its cleaner environmental credentials (yes that dreaded ESG B.S. but it is what it is), in most people's eyes so you could conceivably get most of the initial capex premium back on resale.
I think the economics are actually really good and then as mentioned there's the greater power as well ;D
Sorry for the thread diversion folks.
Quote from: Basil on Feb 05, 2024, 04:56 PMNot this one but the same model https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/motors/cars/nissan/x-trail/listing/4193748848 Be interesting to see how it goes. Apparently drives like an EV with the generator motor powering a small lithium ion battery but no plugging in so no road user charges. Has a truck load of kit for $60K. Won Australia mega test of SUV's for best SUV in 2023.
Bazil, Nissan makes zome vell engineered and practical vehicles theez dayz. (and some vell engineered and impractical vun vehicles too like zee Zed car). But 'e-power', vhich I believe is vhat you refer to eez not a highlight on ze 'engineering achievement' leest vrom Nissan. May I zuggest you plug into a vivteen meenet spiel by my mate John on thees topic. Be varned zome of heez talk eez er 'colourful'. And John zelf depricatingly describes heemzelf as coming from 'Zhitsville' (Australia in Johnspeak) as a kind of 'term of endearment' to heez homeland. But eef you can forgeeve him zhat, he is a qualified engineer, zo he does know vhat he eez talking about.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EUPT8GXsOBw
RB
P.S. You are quite correct about ze Nissan X-trail vinning ze 'Wheels' megatest of SUV's to be 'best medium SUV in 2023'. But eet vas ze conventional ICE version 'Nissan X-trail Ti' vhich deed zhat.
Some good points he made. Replied in the appropriate lifestyle section, vehicles that interest you, here
https://stocktalk.co.nz/index.php?topic=78.msg17660#msg17660
Good news for holders......Basil will be happy
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/425976
Not really a profit upgrade, more of a confirmation of what has been said before but heck lets not stop Todd doing a rave.
F24 growth a bit less than Basils CAGR of 7.5%
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/425976/412324.pdf
First half NPBT up 10% but in spite of head winds turning into tail winds and NIM getting better second half NPBT is only going to be about the same as last year. If they had done another 10% on H223 this year then NPBT would have been $50m
Oh well, Todd can still dine out on his $50m target a bit longer and let's his raves keep punters excited
I'm a bit underwhelmed .suppose another cent on the dividend will keep me happy
Quote from: winner (n) on Feb 12, 2024, 09:11 AMFirst half NPBT up 10% but in spite of head winds turning into tail winds and NIM getting better second half NPBT is only going to be about the same as last year. If they had done another 10% on H223 this year then NPBT would have been $50m
Oh well, Todd can still dine out on his $50m target a bit longer and let's his raves keep punters excited
I'm a bit underwhelmed .suppose another cent on the dividend will keep me happy
Looks like you are person hard to please :) ; Just compare your position with that of an SML, CVT, WHS, HBL or FBU shareholder .... and you will realize just how happy we are :) ;
Quote from: Left Field on Feb 12, 2024, 08:38 AMGood news for holders......Basil will be happy
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/425976
Yes LF, I'm happy. I'm sure Basil will be ok with the news too, even if Winner is a bit grumpy this morning. Mr Market seems pleased also - opening SP looks like $4.60, up 9 cents.
Video of a couple of shareholders this morning. https://www.youtube.com/shorts/TsR64xXB8LI
Quote from: BlackPeter on Feb 12, 2024, 09:48 AMLooks like you are person hard to please :) ; Just compare your position with that of an SML, CVT, WHS, HBL or FBU shareholder .... and you will realize just how happy we are :) ;
SML, CVT, WHS HBL and FBU never surprise and they always make less (or greater losses lol) than they say but Todd's raves generate huge amounts of expectations ..... and then let's me down.
Maybe I've got to read/listen to Todd in a more subdued way.
Never mind the market likes it today .....that's good eh
Having been through the same Commerce degree as Todd at Auckland Uni I can reliably tell you Winner, they drum the whole doctrine of conservatism into you in a pretty thorough way. Conservatism almost a lost art on the NZX these days. Good one or two company CEO's still believe in old fashioned ways of doing things.
Nothing wrong at all with at least $48m especially in the context of a very weak economy. Very happy tail wagging Beagle.
My challenge to all on here is find me another company that's growing dividends at a CAGR of 11% per annum since FY15. Is there another company on the NZX that's ever achieved that ?
No complaints here either - nice start to the week with a 24c gain currently.
Like Basil, I like companies that don't over-egg their forecasts and I wouldn't be surprised at all if full Year NP doesn't end up up getting very close to the magic $50m mark.
Quote from: Basil on Feb 12, 2024, 11:13 AMHaving been through the same Commerce degree as Todd at Auckland Uni I can reliably tell you Winner, they drum the whole doctrine of conservatism into you in a pretty thorough way. Conservatism almost a lost art on the NZX these days. Good one or two company CEO's still believe in old fashioned ways of doing things.
Nothing wrong at all with at least $48m especially in the context of a very weak economy. Very happy tail wagging Beagle.
My challenge to all on here is find me another company that's growing dividends at a CAGR of 11% per annum since FY15. Is there another company on the NZX that's ever achieved that ?
Suppose Todd has left room for another upgrade before announcement in May
Might even be something like $49.5m to $50m eh.
He's not being conservative .........he knows that no profit growth in second half hasn't happened and is just winding most punters up and keeping them excited.
Never mind, must learn to curb my enthusiasm .....but I look forward to first week of April for next upgrade
Interesting to see 2CC on the leader board today..... up 6%....... riding the Turners wave!
On very little volume. I see it as short lived with 2CC, the number of hybrids they were holding will be a hammer blow in the NY. Maybe they reset quickly.
$1.5m tailwind from weather events in 2H FY23 so $48m+ in FY24 compared to $44m normalized last year is solid growth, especially in the context of a very weak economy.
Quote from: Basil on Feb 13, 2024, 08:06 AM$1.5m tailwind from weather events in 2H FY23 so $48m+ in FY24 compared to $44m normalized last year is solid growth, especially in the context of a very weak economy.
Shows how resilient Turners are eh
How many years in a row of record profits is that now?
Yes 2CC caught the Turners wave.
Both companies in the right "price points" of the used car market,ie under $15,000 for TRA and $12,000 for 2CC.
Quote from: winner (n) on Feb 13, 2024, 08:31 AMShows how resilient Turners are eh
How many years in a row of record profits is that now?
4 years of record profits in a row, through thick and thin, covid and recession, cost of living crisis or not. 11% per annum CAGR in dividends since FY15. Given the challenges to the economy in recent years, that's absolutely incredible ! Jarden's talking about ~ 40 cents in annual fully imputed dividends by FY30. Many more years of awesome dividend growth to look forward too. As the add with Tina says "boom, money in the bank".
Turners monthly market report out ...January strong month for car sales
Headwinds have turned to tailwinds as Todd said
Looking forward to upgrade to profit early April
Martin Berry resigns
Seemed to add real value to Turners with his global experience
Baker should just add Tina to the Board ....... Great appointment as well as adding to diversity in many ways
Tina Rocks. I heard a rumor that if you own more than 100,000 shares, she'll give you a big hug at the next annual meeting.
Used car salesmen still pack of cheats
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/510159/car-yards-accused-of-cashing-in-on-ev-discount-as-scheme-wrapped-up
Not something Turners is involved with.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LwafupoVq6A
https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/03/12/the-story-behind-tina-from-turners-and-why-the-ad-works/
Turners monthly market report says dealer to Public sales in February were more than 3% up on last year ...improvement on the 1.5% reported for January
Add on market share gains things must be going well at Turners
Certainty now that $50m npbt will be achieved in F24
Looking forward to profit upgrade just after Easter
Share price well over 5 bucks in April
A bit of free publicity on TV the other night , talking to Tina from Turners
Hope you're right winner, I presume you mean April 2024 and not 2025 :)
Yes, quite a bit of talk about Tina on the radio too. Tina seems to really resonate with Kiwi's as a motoring icon. People love her. I heard a rumor recently that if you have 100,000 shares or more at the next annual meeting, she will give you a hug so I topped up to 100,000 shares just in case its true lol I will get a few more with the dividend reinvestment plan so maybe I get two hugs 😊
Quote from: Basil on Feb 13, 2024, 08:06 AM$1.5m tailwind from weather events in 2H FY23 so $48m+ in FY24 compared to $44m normalized last year is solid growth, especially in the context of a very weak economy.
It's that time of year, just about end of their financial year now, where we must be thinking ahead to FY25 and especially FY26 and FY27 to vision cast where the share price might go in the years ahead.
I reckon they will go close to $50m but let's say $49m for FY24. Strip out the weather event tailwind last year of $1.5m that's $49m v $44m normalized,
So, 11% profit growth despite both a very weak economy and very strong non-recurring headwinds with their finance book this year. That's very impressive.
Hmmm...what if the economy starts to improve a bit in FY25 and especially as we go into FY26 and FY27 and falling interest rates revert to creating a finance division tailwind? Add in branch expansion and ongoing market share gains from their brilliant marketing and I think Turners has a very bright future indeed.
Looking ahead to FY25 divvies, I think 27 cps is quite plausible and that's 37.5 cps incl imputation credits which provides an ~ 8% gross yield while we enjoy excellent ongoing growth in the years ahead. Very attractive.
P.S. Many know that some of the directors have a huge stake in this, but many may not be aware that Todd Hunter has nearly 800,000 shares as well held from memory, in a family trust. Between them all, they have plenty of skin in the game.
Martin Berry flicked 95k shares for $450+. That was nearly 20% of his holding. TRA "Insiders" have now sold NZ$3.5m worth of stock in the last 12 months.
Grant Baker sold $2m worth to invest in support another company, others will remember which one, sorry I forget, but it desperately needed that support.
Martin Berry, (Singapore based) as we know has resigned from the board due to other work commitments so it's understandable if he winds down his level of shareholding over time.
This doesn't give me any cause for concern.
The chart looks awfully similar to the way it did from May to October last year.
Coming to a car sales yard near you ....
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/22/byd-seagull-ev-puts-global-auto-execs-politicians-on-edge.html
Buffet investmented in one of these companies a while back.
TRA price in a consolidation period.
https://autotalk.co.nz/new-boss-for-oxford-finance/
If the OCR is cut back to 3 percent in the next 24 months this share will surely be repriced to reflect term yields...
7 dollars in 36 months..?
sell side looks very light.
A LOT to like about TRA which remains my single biggest stock position on the NZX, (bigger positions in BRM and MLN but they are listed funds with dozens of stocks in them).
Genuine prospects for dividend growth in the years ahead. Jarden have estimated as much as 39 cps for FY29.
40% dividend growth in the last 4 years, (unmatched by any other company on the NZX), and more to come in the years ahead.
Really like how they can grow their business nicely, grow eps and grow dividends without coming back to shareholders for capital raises. I have a MUCH bigger position in this than HGH and it's going to stay that way. I have a lot of respect for Todd Hunter and the senior management team.
Quote from: Basil on Apr 10, 2024, 09:26 AMA LOT to like about TRA which remains my single biggest stock position on the NZX, (bigger positions in BRM and MLN but they are listed funds with dozens of stocks in them).
Genuine prospects for dividend growth in the years ahead. Jarden have estimated as much as 39 cps for FY29.
40% dividend growth in the last 4 years, (unmatched by any other company on the NZX), and more to come in the years ahead.
Really like how they can grow their business nicely, grow eps and grow dividends without coming back to shareholders for capital raises. I have a MUCH bigger position in this than HGH and it's going to stay that way. I have a lot of respect for Todd Hunter and the senior management team.
No arguments from me on this one, Basil ;D
Been topping up as I think TRA are a good buy at these levels. As noted, a cut in interest rates would be a nice tailwind to acheive $50m NP this year. $5 SP is also more than achievable this year, which together with a great yield, makes for a nice return for investors. One of the best run business's on the NZX.
Yes, a great business. I do think that the yield is slightly distorted as there were 5 dividend payments in the financial year ending 31st March. Normally there are 4 quarterly dividends.
The report Turners put out said March Dealer to Public sales ere down 11% on last year
No doubt Easter the reason
NZX listing payments outside the balance date, for 2023.
Company has a March 31 202n balance date.
Deduct the april Net Div is 25 cents..
SP price could still be repriced on lower OCR ... please see Sir B;s post below.
I'm picking 27 cps fully imputed for FY25 = 37.5 cps gross = 8.15% @ $4.60.
Its truly amazing the performance of this company in light ocr at 5,5...
Quote from: Basil on Mar 16, 2024, 03:39 PMMartin Berry, (Singapore based) as we know has resigned from the board due to other work commitments so it's understandable if he winds down his level of shareholding over time. This doesn't give me any cause for concern.
Good that he's finished selling and the significant overhang has been removed.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/429950/417179.pdf
no no want it stay down for another 12 months please...
cant have enough of this well run finance company...
still dropping.... is this telling us something about the market and how the instos view the current state of the market.
I think there's concern the N.Z economy is quite weak at present.
I note TRA have proven their business model is extremely resilient in recent years despite all sorts of challenges from covid, lockdowns, higher interest rates, recession and cost of living pressures. Through it all TRA have thrived with four years of record profit in a row.
I expect the current FY25 year will be another new record as will FY26, FY27 and so on.
Approx 40% dividend growth in the last 4 years too.
Great long term hold.
dummer it went up a few cents at the end of the day...
Could this retest 4.10 ... imagine ... 4 dollars? surely not ....
4.22
look at thee Dividend .... gosh ... eye watering ....
forget the rest of the market ...
just stop ... look ....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GYqebca2fyA
Todd warned me off buying an EV due to collapsing resale values but I've just been out for a nice long lunch with a client who bought a used Tesla 75D which he drove me to the restaurant in. Has twin 193 kw 330nm electric motors...520 horsepower in the old terminology and 660nm of torque from zero revs. I must have led a sheltered life because it was my first time in a Tesla. My goodness, it was quite an experience when he floored the throttle. I suspect we will get a similar sort of takeoff in the share price of TRA when they report yet another record result later this month.
https://www.bing.com/videos/riverview/relatedvideo?q=ratarossa+tesla&mid=0053C23F4344AD894E530053C23F4344AD894E53&FORM=VIRE
I must admit I think my client was pretty brave buying a 7 year old Model S when he could have got a new Model 3 with a long warranty for very similar money. That said, 520 horsepower is very cool and he's had no issues in the first 10 months of ownership.
TRA share price down 10% last couple of weeks
Spark and thl downgrades today ...hope it's not TRA turn tomorrow
They're reporting later this month.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/best-and-worst-cars-motorists-told-consumer-nz-which-vehicles-they-love-and-hate/F57RDEQAORFIBOBN6DY2CPFZEQ/
going to be very interesting ... results will requie a lot of attention and actually a stock to put into the models ...
Phew ...no bad news from Turners today
I was half expecting Todd to come out and say something like 'at least $48m' is now 'slightly less than $48m'
Disappointed there wasn't an announcement in April that 'at least $48m' wasn't 'about $50m'
But then Rod came out and said his sales are 1% higher than last year so the economy can't be doing too badly ...even though Rod's sales are like Turners and not keeping up with inflation
Quote from: winner (n) on May 07, 2024, 09:35 AMBut then Rod came out and said his sales are 1% higher than last year so the economy can't be doing too badly
Treading water in this sour puss economy is a good result. Rod is an excellent operator and so is Todd...bit spooky their names rhyme eh ;)
your very fussy winner() ... the OE.. CD report today in stuff says its on a slow crash to nowhere...
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/350269190/education-productivity-and-emissions-three-big-problems-nz-needs-fix-according
its the ROD and TOD show!!!
Great opportunity to rebalance over the next 24 months ... before the economy fires up again ... again...
last market update on the NZX was https://www.nzx.com/announcements/425976
The sell-off continues. Back to $4 today by the looks of things.
Quote from: LoungeLizard on May 08, 2024, 12:46 PMThe sell-off continues. Back to $4 today by the looks of things.
Is there a reason for the sell off? Doesn't seem to be any mentioned in this thread.
TRA is a very well run company, fundamentally sound with a good yield. I think it's just where we are at the moment in the share market and economy generally. Business confidence is down, the Government is in austerity mode and inflation and interest rates still stubbornly high. Probably just a low point in the cycle for business's like TRA so I sold down when the downtrend started to kick in, to take profits and reduce risk.
If it goes under $4 and the next report's NP still looks good, I may buy in again.
LL has it right ...
https://www.interest.co.nz/public-policy/127641/brian-easton-wonders-whether-economy-another-long-stagnation-and-if-so-why
good oppo to add more or re enter if it goes under 4 ....
hoping it stays here or under for a while ... not often you get a chance like the next 12 months of a hammering on the market...
Quote from: Waltzing on May 08, 2024, 01:28 PMLL has it right ...
https://www.interest.co.nz/public-policy/127641/brian-easton-wonders-whether-economy-another-long-stagnation-and-if-so-why
good oppo to add more or re enter if it goes under 4 ....
hoping it stays here or under for a while ... not often you get a chance like the next 12 months of a hammering on the market...
Thanks for the link.
Brian Easton is a class act and I agree with his analysis. NZ has been papering over the cracks for a long, long time. GDP is such a blunt, if not downright misleading, instrument to gauge where the economy really is. GDP per capita, as Easton uses, is a good start as it strips away the simplistic Government method of increasing immigration to inflate GDP. GDP per capita really shows that even in the good times our growth was anaemic, and since 2019 we haven't grown at all in real terms and are now in negative growth territory. If we used Net Domestic Product per capita things look even worse. Then if we take away the housing market (our biggest industry), you begin to see the underlying lack of productivity in NZ, which lies at the heart of why our real economy is stagnating.
Anyhoo, TRA will ride this cycle out as it has always done - maintaining profitability and dividends. We might have to wait a bit longer before they hit the $50m NP projection but as long as those quarterly dividends keep rolling in I'm happy to hold, and perhaps accumulate.
Worldwide phenomenon. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/used-car-bear-market-worsens-bad-loans-pile-amid-inflation-storm-rocking-drivers
Quote from: Basil on Feb 13, 2024, 10:06 AM4 years of record profits in a row, through thick and thin, covid and recession, cost of living crisis or not. 11% per annum CAGR in dividends since FY15. Given the challenges to the economy in recent years, that's absolutely incredible ! Jarden's talking about ~ 40 cents in annual fully imputed dividends by FY30. Many more years of awesome dividend growth to look forward too. As the add with Tina says "boom, money in the bank".
One of my recent posts on Turners, above.. Honestly, you'd struggle to find a batter managed company on the NZX.
Lets also remember Turners upgraded profit guidance less than 2 months ago.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/425976/412324.pdf
Recently ex director Martin Berry sold most,or all of his holding.
Also the recent death of a ChCh investor has seen his holding in 2CC sold.He also had a large TRA holding,which I expect has also been sold.
Quote from: Basil on May 08, 2024, 03:14 PMOne of my recent posts on Turners, above.. Honestly, you'd struggle to find a batter managed company on the NZX.
Lets also remember Turners upgraded profit guidance less than 2 months ago.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/425976/412324.pdf
Yes, and all good reasons to still hold TRA in one's portfolio and look for buying opportunities. The fly in the ointment is just the slowdown in the economy, consumers feeling the pinch etc which is reflected in the current sentiment surrounding the stock. That will change, particularly if TRA can hold current profitability and dividends. If they can increase one or both I would be seriously impressed!
Quote from: LoungeLizard on May 08, 2024, 03:22 PMYes, and all good reasons to still hold TRA in one's portfolio and look for buying opportunities. The fly in the ointment is just the slowdown in the economy, consumers feeling the pinch etc which is reflected in the current sentiment surrounding the stock. That will change, particularly if TRA can hold current profitability and dividends. If they can increase one or both I would be seriously impressed!
Agreed. As far as I know they are still on track for their fourth year of record profit in a row and record dividend payout of 25 cps fully imputed, (34.72 cps per annum gross), 8.7% yield at $4. For me, it's not just about the yield it's about the prospects for dividend growth in the years ahead. Probably worth remembering they have pivoted to lower value stock and in the last Q & A session mentioned 90% of their stock is under $15,000. Kiwi's love their cars and the freedom they confer. I doubt that love affair will end any year soon...
I do notice it is selling in big volume today. 277.7k today, average is 60k.
Do we know roughly which day they'll be reporting at the end of the month?
Quote from: SuperMario on May 09, 2024, 02:39 AMDo we know roughly which day they'll be reporting at the end of the month?
Last year 23rd May
Forbar say Tuesday 21st May.
going to be interesting to see where it is today end and week close..
The market knows why the stock is being sold off, it just hasnt revealed the answer to you yet. But it will.
We'll see. Percy seems to think the selling pressure is because one larger investor has died, and it might be his estate selling. You'd struggle to find another so well managed company on such compelling metrics on either side of the Tasman.
P.S. They report on 21 May.
Lots of stock held up today including this one...
Weblink for Turners FY24 Results Presentation
Todd Hunter (Group CEO) and Aaron Saunders (Group CFO) will present the FY24 financial results
followed by Q&A at 10:30am on 21 May 2024.
To register for the meeting please click the link:
https://turners.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_Zqo5c_sKTwaIcgm7IWpEBg
with s winter of increasing unemployment will new car sales take a hit or will pressure come on the second hand market...
would have though both but new car sales might get hit harder... be interesting to see the stats.
Over on economy article out today in the herald on just how bad it is for sheep farmers in rural NZ...
well this is what we imagined when drawing a pastel line across the bottom ....
Pretty damning article in NBR about dealers and breakdown insurance in general
Car dealers earning big on 'junk' breakdown insurance
https://www.nbr.co.nz/business/junk-breakdown-insurance-products/#comments
Probably paywalled
Just as well Turners don't just add MBI to the any loans they make to poor punters
But seems an 'industry' problem that needs fixing
See Kathmandu got Liam Lawson on board ....his Kiwi spirit and track prestige blah blah blah
https://www.kathmandu.co.nz/
Will Liam do for Kathmandu whatvTina did for Turners ...doubt it
If the economy is crashing then second hand should be the way to go ...
Turners report on 21 May, next Tuesday and I am expecting another record result of circa $49m before tax, a 7 cent fully imputed dividend to be announced and I expect they have started the new financial year well.
Metrics at this price level, (I will update after the result) are very attractive considering their proven ability to grow market share with their multi award winning "Tina" marketing campaign.
Waiting .... fabulous ... but since the NZX is flightless and grounded expect the share price to popup ... and then ....
QuoteHi everyone time for me to step in again.
Not sure how this image was taken, probably not worth digging into that. This is basically a buyers guide for our car buyers and steers them on the cars to avoid (known mechanical issues...we get this data from our insurance business Autosure + experience) and who they need to get approval from internally to buy cars. Your comments are completely off the mark sashadidi. It doesn't signal anything about how tough or otherwise it is for Turners. What is does signal is that demand is shifting down the price point curve and moderating above for more expensive cars ($20k and above). Unsurprisingly used cars remain resilient but consumers have less to spend...it isn't rocket science and something we have been talking about for 18 months now. This internal document simply helps ensure we source cars where the demand in the market is and avoids the known problem cars...and we are doing this quite successfully as well.
As at the end of March the value of our inventory was down but stock units up. Mar-24 3,465 units @ average price of $7,200 (FY23 3,021 units @ average price of $8,600).
Interesting post from Todd Hunter on the other channel late this afternoon. Emphasis added. Superb stock management in my opinion and really encouraging to see them adapting in a meaningful way, (their business model), for the current financial conditions. Disc: I added a few more today and firmly believe the pullback is well and truly overdone. Looking forward to their report on Tuesday.
That answers the question thank you about the market we posted above... maybe he also checks here to see what everyone is worried about ... maybe? or does not have the time.. Anyway thats what we wanted to know... great inforamtion to have!!! Thats almost a pre market update!!
Thanks ..
Quote from: Waltzing on May 16, 2024, 07:33 PMThat answers the question thank you about the market we posted above... maybe he also checks here to see what everyone is worried about ... maybe? or does not have the time.. Anyway thats what we wanted to know... great inforamtion to have!!! Thats almost a pre market update!!
Thanks ..
Yes it is especially in tandem with Turners monthly stat's just released showing dealer to public sales up a very solid 8.5% in April 2024 compared to the same month last year, (will be stronger growth than that for Turners with ongoing market share gains). Don't forget guidance was recently upgraded too.
Seems to me Todd saying used car sales remain resilient has real meaning behind it, unlike a lot of talk by other companies, (i.e. Todd doesn't do corporate double speak or creative B.S. and he has the owner's eye on the business with his family-controlled interests owning ~ 800,000 shares)
Quote from: Basil on May 16, 2024, 07:43 PMYes it is especially in tandem with Turners monthly stat's just released showing dealer to public sales up a very solid 8.5% in April 2024 compared to the same month last year, (will be stronger growth than that for Turners with ongoing market share gains). Don't forget guidance was recently upgraded too.
Seems to me Todd saying used car sales remain resilient has real meaning behind it, unlike a lot of talk by other companies, (i.e. Todd doesn't do corporate double speak or creative B.S. and he has the owner's eye on the business with his family-controlled interests owning ~ 800,000 shares)
Who needs Tina, when you've got Basil doing the promo for free ;D
Not to be out done by Tina our Todd is a big award winner
Leadership Award atINFINZ Awards
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/infinz-awards-big-winners-in-the-finance-industry-named/PV6JNFYZZ5G33DSPFTZHUNIPJY/
Quote from: winner (n) on May 17, 2024, 08:11 AMNot to be out done by Tina our Todd is a big award winner
Leadership Award atINFINZ Awards
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/infinz-awards-big-winners-in-the-finance-industry-named/PV6JNFYZZ5G33DSPFTZHUNIPJY/
And not an awards night for dodgy used car dealers either .....but in finance sector
Our Todd recognised as Leader in this industry ...kudos
Good bloke with a very nice calm manner and very clear way of communicating. Thoroughly deserved.
Yep, Todd is a class act. Does his homework, communicates very well and always seems to be be thinking about shareholders interests, as opposed to some other CEO's we all know...
Oh gosh its boucning of the bottom pastel line that fills in the 3.50 to 4.60 area....
I bought a few more at $3.90 this week. Expecting a great result on Tuesday and a solid start made to the FY25 year.
A Stunner.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/431370
Quote from: lorraina on May 21, 2024, 08:56 AMA Stunner.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/431370
STUPENDOUS sounds better than Stunner
The effective tax rate over the last two years is between 27.5-28.5%. A normalised NPAT using FY23 tax rate of 28.5% would be $35.1M +8% and EPS would be 40.2 +7%.
This will be across the board on lot of stocks but property has increased in value meaning an uplift over the last 10 years in balance sheet backing of NTA surely.. back news on tax but balanced by increase in land and buidling backing...
nice slow growth stock... almost blue chip for NZX.
The NZX will still come under more pressure this year surely..
Key Business Highlights:
● Auto segment profit was up 27% and constituted more than 50% of group profits.
Driven by two new branches launched in FY24, improved sourcing, retail optimisation (from wholesale auctions to retail), growing brand strength, operating efficiencies and solid organic growth across the network.
● Finance segment has weathered the interest rate shock as we deliberately sacrificed some top line growth over the last two years to focus on higher quality borrowers, positioning the segment well as interest rates ease. Net interest margin (NIM) is expanding, following an inflection point during H2 and rate headwinds will now turn into tailwinds. Meanwhile, arrears remain significantly below industry benchmarks.
● Insurance segment increased contribution to profit as a well-tuned business with robust policy sales, well managed claims and improved investment returns. Notably claims cost inflation was offset by reduced frequency of claims.
● Credit Management business has turned a corner with debt load recovering in line with a tightening economy, particularly in SMEs. The business is well-placed for growth as the economy tightens and debt value load continues to increase.
● A strong culture remains a key advantage, ranking in the top 5% of consumer businesses globally using Peakon (employee engagement tool). 50% of the team took up the Employee Share Scheme offer.
Heres the important bit for the NZX for the next 12 to 16 months.....
● Outlook: An anticipated deterioration in economic conditions during HY25, combined with cycling against a high-growth HY24 comparative period arising in part from extreme weather events, means we expect HY25 to be testing. Our near term focus remains on exceeding the $50M NPBT goal in FY25, despite the economic backdrop. Beyond FY25, Turners is well-placed to continue to make strong progress, thanks to the resilience of a diversified business model (activity and annuity), and clear strategy for further growth.
Future Growth..
Turner's FY24 result demonstrated strong earnings in challenging conditions, thanks to its resilient, diversified business model, and is well placed to implement its next phase of development and growth.
Group revenue rose 7% to $417m, delivering a record NPBT result of $49.1m up 8% on FY23.
Very solid result in the context of economic conditions.
Amazing they can produce one record profit result after another for many years despite all the economic and pandemic challenges faced. Operating like a well-oiled Swiss watch. Presentation.
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/431370/attachment/418834/431370-418834.pdf
Fabulous to see strong dividend growth this year and the average over the last 5 years has been stunning. Final divvy of 7.5 cps exceeded my expectations.
Road map to $65 NPBT in FY28 implies average NPBT growth of 7.5% for the next 4 years.
Really happy with the strong and steady way they are going about building the business.
Consensus estimates before this result for FY25 and FY26 were $52m and $57m.
I think they are on track to meet that.
I expect about 35 cps in annual dividends in FY28 which is nearly 12% gross yield based on the current share price.
TRA looks very well positioned to deliver increasing returns to shareholders in the years ahead.
Disc: My #1 NZX position. Topped up with a few more recently.
Great result as expected. And that's the thing about TRA - you almost know they are going to deliver, that's how solid and reliable they are. Still well undervalued - should be a $5 stock at least.
Turners have number for reverse mortgages on the Balance Sheet
Is that a legacy issue left over from Dorchester
Just a real quick back of the envelope before I tune into the call.
If they can do $52m before tax for FY25 (was consensus before this result) on say 87.5m weighted average number of shares, (has been expanding at about 1m per annum with DRIP so I have accounted for that), that's eps of 42.8 cps, FY25 PE of just 9.6 at the bottom of the economic cycle, looks very cheap.
Assuming divvy payout at mid point of their 60-70% range, 65%, that's 28 cps and fully imputed that's 38.9 cps gross and represents a 9.5% gross yield for the year. (Can be 9.5 / 0.98)9.7% effective is you take the DRIP at 2% discount.
Looking further out at FY26 based on $57 NPBT I foresee eps of 46.4 cps, forward PE of just 8.8, dividends of 30 cps (41.7 cps gross and a gross yield of 10.2%.
Obviously, there's more growth to come in the years after that.
Very solid dividend yield + ongoing growth in the years ahead and all trading on compelling metrics, with a well proven management team.
Crickey, there's a LOT to like.
Quote from: lorraina on May 21, 2024, 08:56 AMA Stunner.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/431370
Not bad, considering the economic conditions. Great job Todd and team!
On the other hand - while revenue increased, earnings were stagnant (yes, I know on a high level, but it still means margins dropping) - and at least the short term outlook is not that flash.
Maybe the next trick will be to just avoid the descent ...?
Anyway - amazing result given the sorry state of many retail outlets ... Congratulations and lets worry about the future tomorrow :);
They don't seem to have mentioned what their market share has grown to
Maybe said something in analysts call
Anybody know.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XCrNhFEjbD4
Won the most trusted used vehicle brand award for the fifth consecutive year.
Heres the problem for the NZX...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/strong-earnings-not-enough-to-stop-nz-sharemarkets-slide-market-close/AYGDJFZAKJH5DFJ5XUQC5MSF6M/
Quote from: Waltzing on May 21, 2024, 10:08 PMHeres the problem for the NZX...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/strong-earnings-not-enough-to-stop-nz-sharemarkets-slide-market-close/AYGDJFZAKJH5DFJ5XUQC5MSF6M/
Problem or opportunity?
Quote from: Waltzing on May 21, 2024, 10:08 PMHeres the problem for the NZX...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/strong-earnings-not-enough-to-stop-nz-sharemarkets-slide-market-close/AYGDJFZAKJH5DFJ5XUQC5MSF6M/
Blocked by paywall. Able to give a small summary?
Here a non paywalled article ... and its a better one IMO.
https://www.interest.co.nz/currencies/127874/more-hawkish-commentary-fed-speakers-hasn%E2%80%99t-perturbed-rates-market-us-treasury
Money is still moving OUT of the NZX ... becuase YIELD is not moving down any time soon....
Other articles are perhaps giving a better picture of whats happening.
Quote from: Waltzing on May 21, 2024, 10:08 PMHeres the problem for the NZX...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/strong-earnings-not-enough-to-stop-nz-sharemarkets-slide-market-close/AYGDJFZAKJH5DFJ5XUQC5MSF6M/
Actually - I think the real problem for the NZX was when years ago foreigners kept buying low yielders like AIA and various others and kept pushing a too high price still higher into bubble land. Paying big dollars for low return sucks.
If these days the prices for high yielding companies like TRA drop - I can live with that. I like to buy bargains, but each for themselves ...
Assets class Versus Asset Class....
One assets is perhaps the most valuable in the country unless another airport is created in the Greater Auckland Area... Not sure AIA is a good example ...
Posted AIA on AIA....
Looks like no one want to sell this stock now and Sir B picked it at 3.90 or so....
unless someone has an forced reason...
Quote from: Waltzing on May 22, 2024, 01:45 PMLooks like no one want to sell this stock now and Sir B picked it at 3.90 or so....
unless someone has an forced reason...
Very good buying last week at $3.90. Very happy with that.
Latest from Craigs and Forbar is out.
Looking ahead for the next 3 years Craigs see:
eps 41.4, 45.1, 48.2
dps 26, 28, 30
PE at $4.22 10.2, 9.4, 8.7
Gross Yield 8.6, 9.2, 9.9
Price Target $5.02 Recommendation: Maintain Overweight.
Forsyth Barr see
eps 41.9, 46.8, 49.8
dps 27, 30, 33
PE 10.1, 9.0, 8.5
Gross yield 8.9, 9.9, 10.9
Valuation $4.66
Everyone will be using AI to run the documents and ask for projections ... but LLM's are language models that require special plugs for maths at the moment or something...
lets see how these projections go please bookmark and copy those and pop them in your excel models...
In the US 24 milliom PRE 2000 used cars!
CNBC... second hand car market ...
US drivers holding on to car for longer... High Inetrest rates forcing consumers to hold cars for longer..
One presenter has 2005 car...
Market showing its got weight ... gravity = OCR...
Reporting Dates for new car sales and other items in the economy ...
https://www.interest.co.nz/economic-calendar
Whats up... not much ...
are we going to see sub 4 again ....
Yep yep yep .. nice ... low 4 's maybe in the high 3's soon... nice nice..
Mmmmm interesting TA showing a bit of short term weakness or an opportunity???
Respected poster on the other channel Alokdhir shares his concerns..... take care holders...
From recent price action after pretty good historic results makes me wonder the selling before the results was not misinformed selling but starting of a trend ...market is worried about grassroots economy activity ...so it needs to go lower ...also luke warm forward commentary is not helping .
When TRA ( most well run small retail oriented company ) is unloved ...times are bad ...not ahead ...right now maybe ...TA people will know if 3.50 on cards ?
Quote from: Left Field on Jun 07, 2024, 11:44 AMMmmmm interesting TA showing a bit of short term weakness or an opportunity???
Respected poster on the other channel Alokdhir shares his concerns..... take care holders...
From recent price action after pretty good historic results makes me wonder the selling before the results was not misinformed selling but starting of a trend ...market is worried about grassroots economy activity ...so it needs to go lower ...also luke warm forward commentary is not helping .
When TRA ( most well run small retail oriented company ) is unloved ...times are bad ...not ahead ...right now maybe ...TA people will know if 3.50 on cards ?
There's a lot of good companies in secure industries - telecommunications, energy etc - that are under the pump at the moment as well. Sign of the times, rather than a reflection of the companies themselves. Some - like SPK - are at historically low levels and present good buying opportunities as there is more liquidity and more support. Picking a low for TRA is trickier, probably impossible. Could it really go as low as $3.50 on the back of a good result and solid dividends? Yes, no, maybe. All good answers :-\
Quote from: LoungeLizard on Jun 07, 2024, 12:16 PM...... Could it really go as low as $3.50 on the back of a good result and solid dividends? Yes, no, maybe. All good answers :-\
Agree......I see it as a temporary blip.....a chance for non holders to buy in, or other holders to lower their av holding cost etc. etc.
The basics remain..... a good sound company with SP going on 'special.'
TRA site price probably heading back to pre index inclusion prices
Quote from: Left Field on Jun 07, 2024, 03:28 PMAgree......I see it as a temporary blip.....a chance for non holders to buy in, or other holders to lower their av holding cost etc. etc.
The basics remain..... a good sound company with SP going on 'special.'
Used to be the biggest uninvestable dog around a few years ago according to some on here, funny how the biggest mutts on four legs become loved household pets over time.
Todd Ishtar have to include this slide next preso ....... Probably regrets making such predictions in public
Roadmap to $5 share
IMG_5814.jpeg
TRA share price was about $3.60 when that Roadmap to $5 was put up. A week later share price was over 4 bucks
Turners performed better than indicated on that chart but the expected multiple expansion has not happened....even with excitmemt of NZX50 inclusion
If nothing else the current share price (less than what it was 3 years ago) highlights how bad market sentiment is these days
What surprises me is 2CC's share price is holding up while TRA's is weakening.
I would have thought TRA would attract more conservative long term shareholders,while 2CC would attract those with a shorter time frame.
Wrong again.?
3.90 and but some late buying... yes well TRA should be a deep value stock ... 3.50 is the next support level.
the official word ...
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/433606/attachment/421692/433606-421692.pdf
Thanks for posting....Loved this bit...
We have set ourselves a new target of $65M NPBT for FY28. This will deliver
a 10-year NPBT compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.4%. Our roadmap to achieving this can be viewed on page 17.
Lol...the roadmap never got to the promised $5 share price or 50M npbt..and now we have a bypass to 65M npbt
I like this company, well run and know their stuff...reminds me a bit of MFT... might be the same blue colour confuses me
Just good people getting on with businees without too much bullshit.
I don't own but watching...reckon next report won't be too flash...roadmap to hit some temporary roadworks....hoping to buy some shares sub $3.50 ish.... Whilst their at the stop sign waiting for the road to reopen
That's my roadmap to buying good shares cheap..lol
Just my opinion...
Item on TVNZ 1 news last night exploring downturn in NZ car sales
New Car registrations down 45%. Used Car sales down 23% ( I didn't catch exact nature of these stat's eg month or Qtr comparisons??.... so don't take these figures as gospel.)
A sales person from Gazley's was interviewed and said discounting now common. Worst he has seen it for years etc.
Holders may wish to check out the facts.
Quote from: Left Field on Jul 03, 2024, 12:31 PMItem on TVNZ 1 news last night exploring downturn in NZ car sales
New Car registrations down 45%. Used Car sales down 23% ( I didn't catch exact nature of these stat's eg month or Qtr comparisons??.... so don't take these figures as gospel.)
A sales person from Galley's was interviewed and said discounting now common. Worst he has seen it for years etc.
Holders may wish to check out the facts.
Yep, conventional wisdom seems to suggest that SP has further to fall, hence no positive movement despite the dividend to come.
yes next 24 months will be slow going for sure but longer term rate cuts maybe coming sooner than expected and later next year the cuts to be deeper than expected for sure...
what if turners does not suffer a 25 percent down turn in sales ... by 2028 where will NZ be .. this thing is a qtr div and its up there with the top rate you will get from a current TD ... there is only a short window here ..
Gazleys has a lot of new European vehicles, so I am not surprised that the top end of the market is retrenching, especially for new cars and most especially for EV's with new and demonstrator EV prices in freefall after being ludicrously overpriced as distributors took advantage of Govt incentive support. At the bottom end of the used car market, transport is a necessity and Turners have reduced the average cost of their units to just over $7,000 over the last year deftly shifting their stock to where demand is strongest. Turners have posted one record result after another over the last 4 years despite lock downs, Covid, the cost-of-living crisis, the steepest rate of interest rate increases in more than a decade and the N.Z. economy being in a recession for a protracted period of time.
I except them to be very resilient in FY25 just as they have been in the last 4 financial years despite the economic headwinds.
FY26 will see them enjoying tailwinds within their finance division which will increase to strong tailwinds in FY27.
have to have a big slows down surely to see 3.50..?
Back on track ,,, well lets hope so ..
Quote from: Basil on Jul 03, 2024, 05:13 PMTurners have posted one record result after another over the last 4 years despite lock downs, Covid, the cost-of-living crisis, the steepest rate of interest rate increases in more than a decade and the N.Z. economy being in a recession for a protracted period of time.
You got it backwards. They didnt post record results despite Covid, they posted record results because of Covid. This is now unwinding, just like the post-Covid travel industry.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/rotorua-daily-post/news/millions-of-dollars-pumped-into-rotoruas-car-dealerships/WYG53AL46SFNJ672K73SIBRIXQ/
Basic transport is a necessity with our pathetic public transport system. Do you stop buying basic necessities in a recession? No, I don't either.
actually US air travel just booked its most flights day ... and more flight capacity is needed apparently.. yes next 12 to 24 months will be slow for many retailers... mini GFC. recession like economy conditions.. but if they dont reduce QTR Div then 3.50 will take a while ..
it looks like TRA has already adjusted its product price points coming out of covid to a lower level.
EV product made in european has hit a price point problem and apparently customers are not happy with battery replacement.. current fleet of petrol looks like it has a few years yet to run.
The other point here is that what portion of inventory is sourced locally in NZD and what portion is hedged ..
Quote from: Waltzing on Jul 04, 2024, 12:36 PMThe other point here is that what portion of inventory is sourced locally in NZD and what portion is hedged ..
That's easy - TRA sources ALL their inventory from NZ. No need to hedge.
yes but there is a ref in the results about the cost of imported inventory in relation to clean car standards... in the "environment statement" just wondering why its there... page 6.
2cc have a hedging which means a portion of there inventory is not local... they look very different business models..
Quote from: Waltzing on Jul 04, 2024, 12:53 PMyes but there is a ref in the results about the cost of imported inventory in relation to clean car standards... in the "environment statement" just wondering why its there... page 6.
2cc have a hedging which means a portion of there inventory is not local... they look very different business models..
You are referring to this bit?
"Government regulation (changes to Clean Car Discount and Clean Car Standard) increasing import cost of used vehicles"
As far as I can see are they just describing the operating conditions the market was in ... used vehicles got dearer, and this obviously impacted on them as well - even if the pre owners of their inventory have not been directly impacted by the increased import cost ... I am sure they (the previous owners) very much enjoyed the windfall for them when on selling their old lemon to TRA.
margin squeeze ? that will impact all operators .. like the price of oil its impacted by all players responding to fill the gaps.. likely see the Sp fall back after each DIV to the 3.80's
Quote from: Waltzing on Jul 04, 2024, 02:58 PMmargin squeeze ? that will impact all operators .. like the price of oil its impacted by all players responding to fill the gaps.. likely see the Sp fall back after each DIV to the 3.80's
Not clever enough to correctly predict future share prices, and I never met anybody else who is able to do that either ...
Clearly - the market currently not that flash as it used to be, and the current SP clearly reflects that.
Whether however the market is over- or underdoing it (lets face it, Mr Market hardly ever gets it right apart from the broken clock effect) is anybody's best speculation ...
Quote from: Basil on Jul 04, 2024, 08:40 AMBasic transport is a necessity with our pathetic public transport system. Do you stop buying basic necessities in a recession? No, I don't either.
A small number of car sales may be essential - eg. the person who buys a replacement car because their old one died or got written off. But most of them are probably discretionary sales - people just want something new, or bigger, or flasher, or sportier, or whatever. In a cost of living crisis that car upgrade gets put off and people just make do with what they currently have.
I'm still very happy with my 2013 Hyundai Veloster ;D
Quote from: KW on Jul 04, 2024, 05:09 PM.... In a cost of living crisis that car upgrade gets put off and people just make do with what they currently have.....
There are also a growing range of alternatives to cars (and public transport)...... in Nelson & Wellington it is quite common to see young families using ebikes/cargo bikes for shopping and the school drop offs. Young people are also using escooters for commuting. Hire scooters are also popular.
( Don't get me wrong..... I don't hold TRA, yet think they are well positioned to weather a storm...... it's just about recognising some headwinds ahead! )
average Car age in US is 14 years and probably growing...
business models count and its probably your small operators that will get hit first... by 2028 the NZ market could be in a much different place.
unless they cut the DIV which is not uncommon as yields turns the nzxn should keep the sp going.. but not certain..
Quote from: KW on Jul 04, 2024, 05:09 PMA small number of car sales may be essential - eg. the person who buys a replacement car because their old one died or got written off. But most of them are probably discretionary sales - people just want something new, or bigger, or flasher, or sportier, or whatever. In a cost of living crisis that car upgrade gets put off and people just make do with what they currently have.
I'm still very happy with my 2013 Hyundai Veloster ;D
Turners and 2 Cheap cars are providing very basic cars to people whose car has died or is nearly dead.
The average stock value at cost (circa $7K) tells you the which end of the market they're supplying.
Then there's their multi award winning Tina marketing which is simply brilliant. Speaking of brilliant marketing and well-known advertising personalities, (Tammy), Rod Duke's Briscoes is also holding up extremely well. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/weve-got-big-plans-rod-duke-on-why-briscoes-is-thriving-while-other-retailers-struggle-money-talks/LZ52SN5TA5EAJAJR76JVHIP2IY/
Yep some bargains out there at the moment this might be one of them... its a much bigger company than your local second hand car dealership ...
There is a lot of money in scrap metal everywhere in the world
true in a few years you may not own a car as you dial up a hire electirc car if you need one.
Finally got around to reading Turners 2024 annual report this morning. I'm a bit old fashioned and like to read the physical report.
A few thoughts.
It's clear the RBNZ pivot will directly translate into strong eps growth in the finance division in the years ahead as lower floating rate funding covers fixed rate lending previously undertaken at much higher rates and I expect significant NIM expansion on their circa $420m loan book.
A clear pathway to growth through branch expansion, driving increased market share and increasing brand awareness which translates to further growth in their insurance and finance book. Interesting to note from the report as well as their known and already disclosed branch expansion plans, they have a "number of conditional offers in the market" which I presume relates to further land acquisition possibilities.
Their new initiative of direct-to-consumer insurance for mechanical breakdown and the like looks like a really interesting initiative given circa 50% of all sales are consumer to consumer direct.
Top 7 executives are all degree qualified, most at Auckland University, (ask me if I think that's a really high quality degree :D ), and it almost looks like an Auckland University alumni group, all very highly experienced and been in the industry and their current position for ages. A very highly qualified, experienced and stable, high performing leadership team.
Trades cum the fully imputed 7.5 cent final divvy. Gross yield about 9% for FY25 by my estimate and well worth noting they have grown the level of dividends by ~ 40% in the last 4 years.
We all know Turners are multi award winning with their "Tina" marketing campaign, but interestingly they were finalists in the 2023 Effie Awards (Global best of the best marketing awards).
Turners provides a pretty unique combination of very high dividend yield with strong growth. Targeting $65m NPBT by FY28 which would see a 10 year CAGR of just under 10%. Very impressive operation.
Disc: My biggest NZX position by quite some way.
Will we see 4 again? hit 3.90 3 times and bounced....
Growth might slow in the future but its still under priced when the OCR or if it gets back to a long run average...
Posted in retail stocks thread today but it really deserves better allocation and belongs in here.
QuoteEven those dumpster diving into the WHS have done okay lately, up a whopping 10.5% just on Friday !
Up nearly 25% from its low for the year of 93 cents. (For the sake of clarity, I am not suggesting in any way that I think it's is a buy and I do not own any, nor am I intending on buying any)
What this does signal however is how forward looking the market is if a complete and utter train wreck like WHS can start to be repriced like that. I think the market is already looking ahead to what impact the change in the Reserve Bank's tone suggests for interest rates and company profits in FY26, FY27 and beyond. I am very comfortable with the tailwinds a much lower interest rate environment will provide for my big NZX positions in future years, namely TRA and HGH. Interest rate cuts for TRA are like an immediate but also a sustained shot of adrenaline into its bloodstream with lower floating rate funding costs directly and immediately boosting profits with net interest margin expansion, (lower funding costs for previous higher fixed rate lending), but also boosting further retail demand, loan generation and insurance sales. Lower interest rates are rocket fuel for profit growth for them and they've been amazingly resilient in super difficult financial times over the last 4 years. Just watch them fly in the years ahead.
Better than watching them fly in the years ahead is being on board lol
CANT HAVE ENOUGH?
Turners Book Value after Tina Capitalisation is about $3.50
So current share price is dirt cheap ...should be 1,4 to 1.6 times that ....say about $5.25
Looking good
yes winner() but the economy just crashed ....
bit like the advert where the dog says the washing machine just broke....
Tink we might get soome at 3 when everyone thinks there will be a run on the banks...
Three something is a figment only in your imagination now mate.
DAMN!!! oh dear .....
You've nailed it though mate with your PM to me. TINA - there is no alternative !
Bingo, you're a legend.
BV what were your numbers WR()
Assets liabilities or BV shares...
i mean Financial reporting is really accurate?
but what are the brokers saying ...
Craigs have a target price of $5.02 (May 2024 research).
TINA .... there is ...
New Zealand 2024. Vehicle Market Collapses 59.9% In June
https://www.focus2move.com/new-zealand-vehicles/
That's new vehicles against record registration in June 2023 to beat the EV rebate decline. Used cars are holding up really well. I have Turners latest year to date and June vehicle market stat's and am very confident they are doing well.
Forbar today.
Turners Automotive Group Ltd
No Need to Shift Gears, Growth on Track
link
OUTPERFORM
We initiate full coverage of Turners Automotive Group (TRA) with an OUTPERFORM rating and a 12-month target price of NZ$5.30. TRA is a high quality operator which has gained market share and grown earnings through the interest rate cycle. We see a clear pathway to further earnings growth driven by (1) footprint expansion from new branches, (2) margin recovery and book growth in its Finance segment as the OCR falls and (3) further sales channel optimisation in its Auto Retail segment. While there are risks from a continued deterioration in the consumer environment, we view TRA's 12-month forward PE of ~10x as undemanding, especially in the context of our FY24-FY28 EPS CAGR of ~+10%. Additionally, TRA offers an attractive gross yield of ~8.9% and has been one of the premier dividend growers in the New Zealand market over the last decade.
NZX Code
TRA
Share price
NZ$4.22
Target price
NZ$5.30
Risk rating
Medium
C&ESG rating
n/a
Market cap
NZ$373m
Avg daily turnover
59.5k (NZ$262k)
Financials: Mar/
24A
25E
26E
27E
Rev (NZ$m)
362.1
387.4
414.5
436.6
NPAT* (NZ$m)
33.0
36.6
40.7
45.2
EPS* (NZc)
37.3
41.5
46.1
51.1
DPS (NZc)
25.5
27.0
30.0
34.0
Imputation (%)
100
100
100
100
*Based on normalised profits
Valuation (x)
24A
25E
26E
27E
PE
11.3
10.2
9.2
8.3
EV/EBIT
33.1
52.4
47.4
45.6
EV/EBITDA
21.0
26.3
24.1
23.0
Price / NTA
3.3
2.9
2.6
2.4
Cash div yld (%)
6.0
6.4
7.1
8.1
Gross div yld (%)
8.4
8.9
9.9
11.2
Thanks, Lorriana.
Their view pretty much lines up with mine. No stock on the NZX has grown dividends at the consistent and impressive rate TRA has in the last decade.
Gosh 34 cps fully imputed (47.2 cps gross) in FY27 with further growth after that will be nice.
10% CAGR in eps forecast in the next 4 years on the back of the same CAGR in the last 10 years and on a PE of only 10 ! PEG of only 1.0 !
Gosh, talk about growth at a reasonable price !! Go Tina and Todd !!
Turners June vehicle report. Used vehicles overall, dealer to public are holding up well year to date and of course we know Turners is steadily growing its market share so they will be doing well despite the current headwinds, which look like changing to tailwinds shortly.
As usual I think Turners management (who are expecting a stronger second half), have read the market superbly. That's what I've come to expect with such highly experienced and talented management.
https://www.turners.co.nz/globalassets/terms-and-conditions/market-report-cars---june-2024.pdf
No need to change gears here or change the investment "vehicle", (so to speak), either. Disc: Very happy long-term holder. My #1 NZX position.
Jeez Basil, that 47 cent divie in 2027 interesting
Orr is pretty useless and he'll probably overdo the rates cuts ....so just imagine if OCR goes down to say 2% and punters want a 6% divie .....TRA shares could be close to 8 bucks
Dreaming maybe but you never know
You mean the NZ economy performance requires more rate cuts than currently forecast.....
which acts as a boost to finance sector of which this business model conforms....
Quote from: Waltzing on Jul 24, 2024, 02:18 PMYou mean the NZ economy performance requires more rate cuts than currently forecast.....
which acts as a boost to finance sector of which this business model conforms....
You know our Adrian ....always overreacts
Director Antony Vriens sold most of his shares ...keeping 300
Probably going to concentrate on Me Today
not sure name is a winner() .... you tomorrow ....
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/436021/424515.pdf
I'm not sure how this adds to the business, but management and the directors are highly skilled in their field and I trust them this is going to be value accretive to the business over time. If it's not, $1m is not the end of the world in the overall scheme of things.
sure people want to check insurance from one portal...
Last year Turner's revenue from insurance was $46.1m. I think this investment was a wise decision.
Quote from: Waltzing on Aug 13, 2024, 10:31 AMsure people want to check insurance from one portal...
Insurance costs have been rising at a fast rate in recent years so I think a lot more people will want to ensure they are getting the most competitive deal in the years ahead.
I just did a quick check on Quashed for my car insurance.
Only 5 companies quoted - AMP, Cove, TradeMe (Tower), AMP and Protecta. No quote from Turners.
The quotes range from $430pa to $900pa higher than I'm currently paying via my broker!
they got some work to do then and the big players not all getting on board then...
still plenty of people with no idea may pile in anyway...
Turner's TV advertising has been absorbed by the RBNZ governor.
Promoting a Reserve Bank webinar for secondary schools at the end of today's press conference, Adrian Orr exhorted journalists to promote it to students saying: "You know, as Tina says, the internet is everywhere!".
A light touch from the governor and shows just how deeply Tina has become embedded in the NZ psyche.😁
Dame Tina ...
TRA now a statistical indicator ...key indictator on the RBNZ statistical model..
With recession persisting it appear this could dip again to the low 4 as an accumulate if you missed SKL or worse sold out of it .....
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/129214/reserve-bank%E2%80%99s-early-rate-cut-ends-three-years-tightening-signalling-major-policy
""RBNZ has probably made the right call in starting to cut the OCR, but in doing so, it implies that its view of the economy and its forecasts in May were hopelessly wrong," Olsen said."
pass the T.... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HgEOTzSrv9s
what a classic .... up... someone get some new data please.....
Quote from: Waltzing on Aug 15, 2024, 10:02 AMWith recession persisting it appear this could dip again to the low 4 as an accumulate if you missed SKL or worse sold out of it .....
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/129214/reserve-bank%E2%80%99s-early-rate-cut-ends-three-years-tightening-signalling-major-policy
""RBNZ has probably made the right call in starting to cut the OCR, but in doing so, it implies that its view of the economy and its forecasts in May were hopelessly wrong," Olsen said."
pass the T.... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HgEOTzSrv9s
what a classic .... up... someone get some new data please.....
Lets face it - Olsen just sounds sad - and I don't mean that in any positive way.
His whinging about RNZ changing their views adds not even entertainment value. What authority would he have other than being not better than RNZ nor anybody else in predicting the future? What RNZ did was changing their views based on the environment changing. Not rocket science, but sensible.
I guess if he hasn't yet checked that NOBODY is able to predict the future, then I am wondering why anybody would put him into any job with responsibilities? But sure - economists don't have responsibilities, but this one is not even entertaining.
off topic..
A data science german real time data software technical expert advised two years ago that the NZ economy has to many time lag data sinks in it...
now the Vikings had simula in the 1960'sss, that technology never made it here... old pascal on a DG did...
its a country that failed to modernise it data science fast enough.... ..
you cant make decisions when you dont have the data...
Quote from: BlackPeter on Aug 15, 2024, 11:23 AMthat NOBODY is able to predict the future
Off topic but I have been meaning to ask you this for a long time.
You keep reiterating that nobody can ever predict the future so why do you invest in individual stocks rather than a bunch of low cost index tracking funds? By investing in company A compared to company B are you not trying to predict the future that company A will outperform?
For what its worth I think the RBNZ has made a real hash of things. They need to get out from their ivory tower and get down into the coalface and talk to literally hundreds of SME's on a regular basis to get a current feel of the economy not some backward facing view based on historical data. Yes they have some egg on their face for cutting now rather than their forecast of August 2025, made as recently as May 2024, but a man with some egg on his face is more attractive than a man running the economy into a great depression so its good he's done a flip-flop.
On topic. Its well-known TRA will benefit from the reduction in the OCR over time as fixed rate motor vehicle loans written at high rates are funded by floating rate finance at reducing rates and their NIM should expand nicely over the next few years. Not sure why TRA hasn't joined the "relief rally" yet but maybe an opportunity for those not already well positioned?
Additionally, as an income stock, I note Forsyth Barr predicting dps of 30 cps next financial year (FY26). That's 41.67 cps gross and a forecast gross yield of 9.7% next year @ $4.30. That's very attractive given their proven ability to keep growing dividends over the long run.
Disc: Already very well positioned.
off topic..
yes they spent there time printing off posters of trees...
even wanted more people without math skills... now the PM has said need more maths and less arts...
well Bob Jones ones once said he hired history students to program his software... go figure...
and really thats the point.... history can show us the future...
well charts are a form of art and maybe drawing charts will be a good thing....
give kindergartens new types of coloring in templates
colorful pie charts... with lots of pastels...
have a competition and the winner gets to meet the PM and hand over the drawings!!!
mean the statistical paintings... mean CHARTS!!!
if you though they knew what they were doing and the data models were good you did not buy before the fact....
NAH you bought before the fact as probability and information from the german data scientist told us dont trust the RBNZ models...
the banks knew what the RBNZ did not...
yup you bought in the days before ....
Quote from: Basil on Aug 15, 2024, 11:43 AMOff topic but I have been meaning to ask you this for a long time.
You keep reiterating that nobody can ever predict the future so why do you invest in individual stocks rather than a bunch of low cost index tracking funds? By investing in company A compared to company B are you not trying to predict the future that company A will outperform?
Good question - I think the issue here is around shades of likelihood.
What happens in the future is driven by a complex system with plenty of different inputs. Some of these inputs are at least for the near future with reasonable likelihood predictable (like the short term weather forecast), others are not (like predicting the weather of the next growing season, pandemics, wars, earthquakes, Trump winning (or hopefully losing) the next election or other punishments of the gods, ...). The outcome of merging all these inputs is always unpredictable - the best one can do is assign some likelihood to achieving a certain outcome - and after the event, you know whether you have been right or wrong, but you never will know, whether you got the likelihood right.
Imagine its 1640 and you are running the Dutch West-India Company. You know the weather is unpredictable (but you don't know when the next cyclone is due), you know there are plenty of pirates around (but you don't know where they exactly are, and whether they will pick on your ships), you know that Britain and Spain is likely to attack your ships from time to time (as they did) and you don't even know the geography of all the places you still want to explore. You only know that you want to make as much money as any possible by exploiting, enslaving and raping the colonies which the Netherlands happened to occupy.
Clearly - you don't know the future (as everybody else), but you are able to improve your odds to be successful (however you measure success) by picking experienced captains and by giving them well maintained ships, good weapons, enough ammunition and good crews.
You still have no clue whether you will be successful (though the odds might be on your side) and you don't know the future. You don't know whether the next war will destroy your flotilla, and you don't know what your ships will find.
Same if you buy shares in a company. You will try to pick the best teams and ships, improving your odds to be successful, but at the end - even the best ship can be sunk by a dumb cannonball (or freak wave).
You don't know the future and neither does anybody else.
That is exactly what I mean with "Nobody can predict the future".
Makes sense?
But yes - everybody can prepare for an unknown future, and the better you prepare, the better are your odds that you will be successful.
That's what any good investor will do as well - try to pick companies which are best prepared for an uncertain future, without paying too much.
Well, I didn't say its easy, did I?
.
Quote from: Basil on Aug 15, 2024, 11:43 AMFor what its worth I think the RBNZ has made a real hash of things. They need to get out from their ivory tower and get down into the coalface and talk to literally hundreds of SME's on a regular basis to get a current feel of the economy not some backward facing view based on historical data. Yes they have some egg on their face for cutting now rather than their forecast of August 2025, made as recently as May 2024, but a man with some egg on his face is more attractive than a man running the economy into a great depression so its good he's done a flip-flop.
I think its just easy and fashionable to use Orr as whipping boy. So easy to beat somebody up who has been "convicted" in the court of social media (aka lynch justice). Not really contrarian, but its always easier to run with the herd.
I agree that his May 24 statement sounded different than his August 24 statements, but there might be valid reasons for that (like the desire to "jaw-bone" inflation still back in May). And hey, if the circumstances change, I change my opinion. So did he. What are you doing? :p;
Quote from: BlackPeter on Aug 15, 2024, 04:38 PMYou don't know the future and neither does anybody else.
That is exactly what I mean with "Nobody can predict the future".
Makes sense?
OFF TOPIC
Actually no because not knowing the future and predicting the future are two different things. I have an issue with the blanket statement "Nobody can predict the future".
I will show why you are wrong by stating:
"I predict the OCR in New Zealand will be lower in 12 months time than it is today." I made a prediction, so obviously people
can make predictions.
Now whether or not that prediction is correct remains to be seen because I do not know the future.
I recommend you qualify such statements in future because as I have said previously, anyone with cognitive ability and the ability to communicate can predict the future. But can they
accurately predict the future?
Good post BP and Ferg. My view is the past is the best guide to the future and the most recent past is the most reliable indicator.
For example, sticking with Ferg's analogy, we know that when central banks go into easing cycles the most likely outcome is that one rate cut is followed by another.
Another good example, Turners has a well proven track record of growing dividends so I think I am on solid ground saying that over the medium term we can expect further significant dividend growth in the years ahead. Something retired investors looking for income that grows in line with, or above the inflation rate might want to think about. People rolling over 1 year term deposits now at 5.75% might only get 4.5% or even less when it rolls over next year and even lower the year after that on the balance of probabilities. That seems like a mugs game by comparison to growing income with Turners.
Of course there could be some major black swan event, that I agree, we cannot possibly predict.
My view is that intelligent investing is weighing everything up after a thorough review of all pertinent facts and making decisions "on the balance of probabilities". You're never going to get every investment decision right but as long as you get a lot more right than wrong, have a reasonably well diversified portfolio and have a strategy for limiting your losses when you are wrong, you should do okay.
Game theory .... and with AI game theory will grow in predictability...
money already moving into the market in 1 day ....
arg now 113 and some junk retail moving
TRA this stock has shown a reduced number of shares for sale over the last few days since the OCR dizzying pivot...
is over 5 by april now looking possible?
if you did not buy pre OCR rerate then its looking like no one want to sell right here much.
Our Arron had to wait a while but he got his 20,000 shares at $2 the other day
Suppose incentivising management with cheap options is a good idea
well if those cheap electric china cars make it here and get dumped on TRA yards dont buy .....
one of the new china models bumped over some lose pavement and exploded in fire in china recently....
not a good look... maybe why they are cheap....
too cheap autos....
Quote from: Waltzing on Aug 29, 2024, 12:50 PMwell if those cheap electric china cars make it here and get dumped on TRA yards dont buy .....
one of the new china models bumped over some lose pavement and exploded in fire in china recently....
not a good look... maybe why they are cheap....
too cheap autos....
Google "Tesla catching fire" and look at the first 100 links (you are free to watch more, if you like).
You will see that electric cars catching fire has nothing to do with the price of the car. The only difference is: Teslas make more expensive fires, and yes - more of them!
Here are just some appetizers:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gai1buBArmM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5qxgYvMq37Y
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GmmqS7GC5kw
Go Tina !!, starring in the latest Celebrity Treasure Island which kicks off on TV2 on Sept 9.
Other celebrities are there too but who cares about them lol...although it will be nice to see Duncan Garner back on T.V.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertainment/duncan-garner-suzanne-paul-and-carmel-sepuloni-celebrity-treasure-island-new-zealand-cast-revealed/VHTB7NE45NAKTNQEUOSUCTRNUE/
This will get holders excited
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/437719
Turners makes a strategic growth investment in vehicle repair platform My Auto Shop
Turners Automotive Group has acquired 50% of My Auto Shop, seeing strategic value in both accelerating the growth of the vehicle repair and maintenance business, and adding value for Turners' customers by expanding the Group's range of services into after-sales vehicle repairs and servicing.
A good fit for Turners.
Customers for life.
since its a platform one assumes it can evolve a bit to cater for changing markets.
the more complex the vehicle the more likely it is to go back to its supplier.
market SP is a bit stuck at the moment..
Quote from: lorraina on Sep 10, 2024, 08:36 AMA good fit for Turners.
Customers for life.
Well, yes - that's what I thought as well when I saw the header.
However - its not a car repair chain, it seems to be an online platform (like Uber, AirBnB & similar) to book workshops - and it has been founded by money spinners from Uber and My Food Bag (Oh god ...).
QuoteMy Auto Shop was founded in January 2020 by Andy Bowie, a former general manager of Uber and Uber Eats NZ, and Richard Wafer, the former COO for My Food Bag.
Lets hope that Todd knows what he is doing ... and Tina makes that working. I am sure somebody will make money with this transaction, but I just can hope it will be the shareholders of TRA vs some fat cats from Uber and My Food Bag.
From a personal point of view I do appreciate a direct and trustful relationship with our local car repair workshop. I would not see how a money creaming platform like Uber for car repairs could add value in this context.
Great fit. Todd, Aaron and the team are very smart operators.
Be good to know what TRA paid for 50%.
I see Trade Me retained 10%
yes BP knowing the history of a system is important but these days owners of some types have Dar own code readers ..
and computer systems for many are and will be built in for self diags....
dumping that report to an on line platform could allow for automated reviews and automated quotes with a review before final quote...
there is a lot an on line platform could do in the future to enhance the options an owner has..
see it having potential well beyond it present roll out feature set...
Todd and Aaron are Directors
Quote from: Bev on Sep 10, 2024, 09:48 AMBe good to know what TRA paid for 50%.
Good questions for the team at the annual meeting on 18 Sept.
1. How has trading been year to date for FY25 ?
2. Are you still expecting an uptick in 2H FY25 ?
3. How much did you pay for your investment in https://myautoshop.co.nz/ ?
4. When do you expect that investment to be eps accretive?
Quote from: Basil on Sep 10, 2024, 11:26 AMGood questions for the team at the annual meeting on 18 Sept.
1. How has trading been year to date for FY25 ?
2. Are you still expecting an uptick in 2H FY25 ?
3. How much did you pay for your investment in https://myautoshop.co.nz/ ?
4. When do you expect that investment to be eps accretive?
EPS a accretive ..probably never
Better question 'Great acquisition, tell us how My Auto Shop makes money?"..and then ask how much
What came of that strategic investment Turners made in Collaborate / Carly a few years ago?
I take it it was the foundation of the subscription business they
Hardly any mention the subscription business in the Annual Report ......did help width the group emissions reduction by having a greater number of EVs
small chips winner...
retail this next year could be slow in all sectors of the market...
this one included which give investors plenty of time in AVE in..
Turners on record as expecting a stronger second half...just saying.
Quote from: Basil on Sep 11, 2024, 11:26 AMTurners on record as expecting a stronger second half...just saying.
Hopefully yes because they said "... we expect HY25 to be testing"
As long as H1 >$25m PBT we'd be OK
Update next week?
Might wander along to the annual meeting on 19th if I get time and see if the sausage rolls are hot and shake Todd's hand. Don't like my chances of getting a hug from Tina but I live in hope and you never know ;D
Might get an update on trading conditions too.
Quote from: Basil on Sep 11, 2024, 01:47 PMMight wander along to the annual meeting on 19th if I get time and see if the sausage rolls are hot and shake Todd's hand. Don't like my chances of getting a hug from Tina but I live in hope and you never know ;D
Might get an update on trading conditions too.
Won't be anybody there on 19th
It's
Wednesday 18th
and see if indeed its TINA
There is no alternative ...
well HLG came in well above expectation ...
24 months time and no stagflation there could more many TINA's
more the better...who does not want to see NZ and ASX doing well...
Quote from: winner (n) on Sep 11, 2024, 02:42 PMWon't be anybody there on 19th
It's Wednesday 18th
Thanks, quite right. I did have the entry in my diary right, just mistyped it this morning in that post.
Attendance will depend on the amount of work pressure next week.
Quote from: Basil on Sep 11, 2024, 01:47 PMMight wander along to the annual meeting on 19th if I get time and see if the sausage rolls are hot and shake Todd's hand. Don't like my chances of getting a hug from Tina but I live in hope and you never know ;D
Might get an update on trading conditions too.
Much appreciated if you walk to the AGM (and ask the hard questions and obviously report on it :) ;
Just one small warning - while I found the TRA shareholder and info meetings I attended so far always interesting and worthwhile to go to, it was never because of the quality of the catering. Obviously - one could say it is good if they don't waste shareholder funds to cater for share holders.
Just trying to manage expectations :) ;
Duly noted. The lukewarm sausage rolls underwhelmed last time..mind you I haven't been for a few years and the venue is more upmarket now so I live in hope. Happy to share if I get time to attend.
Seems a case of who you know and how much money you throw at it
Results in comments like this on social media -
Grant Baker is Chairman of Turners Automotive Group and he owns a substantial amount of shares in the company. Turners is the largest used car dealer in NZ.
He has given $120,000 in donations to Act & National since 2022. I think he got his money's worth
Transport minister pushed ahead with weaker tailpipe standards to meet car industry's deadline
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/528014/transport-minister-pushed-ahead-with-weaker-tailpipe-standards-to-meet-car-industry-s-deadline
At least those donations didn't come from Turners per se
Annual Reports said no donations to political parties in FY23 and FY24
That's a relief
ASM Presentation for consumption prior to the meeting. Actually - looks much more positive than the sandwich slices I remember from previous meetings .... ;) ;
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/438216
contains useful info related to the recent acquisition of My Autoshop. Price was apparently $3.35m
Outlook and guidance sounding positive:
"
- Expecting a record first half performance with HY25 ahead of HY24.
- On track for exceeding the $50M NPBT goal in FY25 however there remains some obvious risks with the rate of recovery in the overall economy and consumer demand.
"
Will be interesting to listen into the presentation ...
ah yes, and can't hardly wait for all these brand new Christchurch premises to open up - that's three Turners outlets in easy driving distance from anywhere in Christchurch and mid Canterbury (vs. so far one, which was quite hard to access) :) ;
Expecting record first half performance .... that's cool
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/438216/attachment/427421/438216-427421.pdf
WOW, in economic recessionary conditions that many retailers are saying are worse than Covid and the GFC, Turners go from one record to another over the last 4 years and yet another record projected for FY25. Very, very impressive and they are weathering the current economic downturn even better than I expected. Imagine how well they will do when the economy improves!
Disc: My #1 invested position on the NZX and its staying that way!
Here is the video of todays ASM for anybody who might have missed it:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g0bDAjBJ4RQ
Worthwhile to watch - the dialogue between shareholders and board is one of the best I've seen in such meetings - many great questions (and only a tiny number of time wasters), and always very informative and open answers.
Thanks to Todd and Aaron - you rock!
Tak BP...
Sp creeping up a bit this morning....
well ... well done to the team at TRA ...
certainly TINA is the acro applicable...
wonder if TINA has a performance bonus share plan...
Quote from: BlackPeter on Sep 18, 2024, 12:09 PMHere is the video of todays ASM for anybody who might have missed it:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g0bDAjBJ4RQ
Worthwhile to watch - the dialogue between shareholders and board is one of the best I've seen in such meetings - many great questions (and only a tiny number of time wasters), and always very informative and open answers.
Thanks to Todd and Aaron - you rock!
Many thanks mate, I look forward to watching that after work. I really regret not making the time to attend that meeting. Never mind. I will be absolutely sure to attend next year's meeting. The business will be really pumping by then ! Tina might even be there next year dishing out hug's, I live in hope lol
tack så mycket BP
and thanks to Sir B for championing this company...
I was out this morning so missed the agm.
However I have just watched it on YouTube.
Excellent CEO,CFO and board.
A lot of questions which were fully answered .
A very positive meeting.
They do what they say they will do.
Quote from: lorraina on Sep 18, 2024, 02:22 PMI was out this morning so missed the agm.
However I have just watched it on YouTube.
Excellent CEO,CFO and board.
A lot of questions which were fully answered .
A very positive meeting.
They do what they say they will do.
Road map to $5 didn't work out as planned ....maybe just too exuberant at the time he came up with that
May-24 set new target of $65M NPBT by FY28
• We achieved our FY24 target a year ahead,and remain on
track for exceeding our $50M NPBT FY25 goal.
• Assumes organic growth out of Auto Retail with new
branches planned plus continued wholesale to retail
transition. Recovery in Finance business and Credit
management + direct to consumer growth in Insurance.
Deeply impressive how they're performing. We've just been through the coldest winter I can recall in many, many years, (I am not talking about the temperature here), and they're on track to post yet another record annual result, that's five years of records in a row despite all the incredible challenges since Covid arrived in early 2020 and N.Z. being in recession for what feels like forever and a day.
Makes me ponder if Turners really is the classic recession proof stock, basically selling a staple item that people buy no matter what the economy is doing or is this a lesson we're getting here in brand power or perhaps it's their true marketing brilliance, the "Tina" effect...probably elements of many factors here including in difficult times people stick to brands they trust, (they keep winning Readers digest most trusted brand year after year). Suppose you could say who cares what all the ingredients of their "secret sauce" are, it's working and that's all that matters. I can only wonder how well they are going to fly when we finally see better economic times. I suspect the Tina effect has a lot to do with their robust performance just like Tammy has had a lot to do with Briscoes success over the years. Interesting price action today and on very good volume for a change. Has the tide turned on the share price direction?...you be the judge.
Holders will know there's a quarterly dividend due late next month too. I am expecting an announcement sometime in the next few weeks.
pretty big div now... imagine..are they going to stay at this payout for this year.. probably as they just uuuped it....
next year?
imagine by 2030...
From memory Jarden reckon 40 cps fully imputed divvies by FY30. From today's presentation Dividends have been growing at a CAGR of 11% If that continues from FY 24's 25 5 cps to FY30 I calculate divvy income of 47.7 cps fully imputed = 66.25 cps gross. TRA is the NZX's premier dividend growth stock No other company on the NZX can boast a consistent dividend growth rate of that magnitude.
For Bars review
At its ASM, Turners Automotive (TRA) guided to a record first-half performance for 1H25, implying profit before tax (PBT) will be greater than the NZ$25.7m it reported in 1H24. TRA continues to execute admirably against a challenging economic and industry backdrop. Sales volumes in the Auto Retail division are tracking ahead of FY24, in line with data from our sales tracker, suggesting continued market share gains (industry sales from April to July 2024 were -6% behind the same period in 2023). TRA remains on track to exceed its FY25 PBT target of NZ$50m, with management noting the resilience of the Auto Retail division and continued growth in Finance and Insurance, despite broader economic challenges. While there are likely to be some seasonality impacts in 2H25, we lift our profit before tax (PBT)
estimate by +1% to NZ$51.4m. We continue to view TRA's 12-month forward PE of ~10x as undemanding in light of the robust earnings growth outlook and building track record of execution. TRA has also expanded its service offering and addressable market with investments in Quashed and My Auto Shop. Retain OUTPERFORM, with an increased target price of NZ$5.41.
link
NZX Code TRA
Share price NZ$4.42
Target price NZ$5.41 (from 5.30)
Risk rating Medium
C&ESG rating n/a
Market cap NZ$391m
Avg daily turnover 60.8k (NZ$271k)
link
Financials: Mar/24A 25E 26E 27E
Rev (NZ$m) 362.1 387.4 414.5 436.6
NPAT* (NZ$m) 33.0 37.0 41.0 45.4
EPS* (NZc) 37.3 41.9 46.4 51.4
DPS (NZc) 25.5 27.0 30.0 34.0
Imputation (%) 100 100 100 100
*Based on normalised profits
Valuation (x) 24A 25E 26E 27E
PE 11.8 10.6 9.5 8.6
EV/EBIT 33.9 51.8 47.5 45.8
EV/EBITDA 21.5 26.5 24.5 23.3
Price / NTA 3.4 3.1 2.7 2.5
Cash div yld (%)5.8 6.1 6.8 7.7
Gross div yld (%)8.0 8.5 9.4 10.7
What's changed?
Earnings: Our PBT estimates rise +1% in FY25 to NZ$51.4m, and +1% in FY26 and FY27.
Target price: Our target price rises +11cps to NZ$5.41, reflecting earnings changes and higher peer multiples.
Expanding the service offering
TRA has invested NZ$1m for 13% of Quashed, a digital insurance platform. TRA's investment into Quashed will broaden its digital footprint and enhance its presence in the growing insurtech space, aligning with its focus on expanding supplementary services around its Auto Retail offering. TRA has also acquired a 50% stake for NZ$3m in My Auto Shop, an online car servicing platform, and will integrate digital services into its ecosystem. TRA sees a significant opportunity to develop My Auto Shop as a scaled player in NZ's highly fragmented NZ$3b auto repair market. The business also provides a significant cross-sell opportunity to over 200k TRA customers across its Cars, Autosure Insurance, and Oxford Finance divisions, enhancing customer engagement and boosting adjacent revenue streams. We had previously noted TRA's lack of exposure to the parts and services market, in contrast to many of its peers.
Branch expansion pipeline growing
TRA provided an update on its site development pipeline. It has completed the development of sites in Timaru and Napier, which have both exceeded expectations and are contributing positively to profitability (~$NZ500k annual profit contribution each). Looking ahead, the company has several key site developments planned, including a new truck and damaged vehicles site in Tauranga (Tauriko), and three new car retail sites in Christchurch, set to be completed by the end of FY26. A further site in Tauranga will be delivered in FY27. These new sites and expansions are expected to deliver a combined additional profit of NZ$2.2m annually.
Quote from: Basil on Sep 10, 2024, 11:26 AMGood questions for the team at the annual meeting on 18 Sept.
1. How has trading been year to date for FY25 ?
2. Are you still expecting an uptick in 2H FY25 ?
3. How much did you pay for your investment in https://myautoshop.co.nz/ ?
4. When do you expect that investment to be eps accretive?
Were these questions asked? Any relevant responses to 3 & 4?
Quote from: Left Field on Sep 19, 2024, 07:30 AMWere these questions asked? Any relevant responses to 3 & 4?
$3.35m for half of My Auto Shop
EPS accretive ...no doubt sometime but as they 'become a scale player in the highly fragmented, estimated $3 billion auto repair market in NZ.' the returns will be enormous
Quote from: winner (n) on Sep 18, 2024, 04:17 PMRoad map to $5 didn't work out as planned ....maybe just too exuberant at the time he came up with that
Actually - quite happy with both SP development as well as dividend yield since I started to take a position roughly a year ago.
Neither boards nor managers can control the share price (which is shaped by lots of parameters outside of their control) ... and maybe this is the lesson for Todd: Never ever set targets you are not able to control :) ;
Anyway - only another month or so to the next juicy dividend payment - and the capital gains since Buy-in can be enjoyed on a daily basis :) ;
If they keep a stable DIV the market will rerate the SP at a future date...
mean while it never got below 4 for a back up the truck moment...
BRIS on the other hand has shown how local stocks have all round have been hit hard and now recovering...
50 Basis point cut to US rate over night shows the way forward though the market now thinks that may mean recession is coming.. again.. was supposed to have hit the US already...
the ever approaching recession the US retail shopper just does not know has arrived... is supposed to be here... again... will the RBNZ panic again?
Hopefully RBNZ will follow suit and cut 50 bps on 9 October. Economy really needs a 100 bps cut in my opinion.
hold well onto 2030 and SP should be well over 6 ...
Quote from: Basil on Sep 19, 2024, 09:46 AMHopefully RBNZ will follow suit and cut 50 bps on 9 October. Economy really needs a 100 bps cut in my opinion.
Economy not doing too bad
If Reactive Adrian gets over excited and over reacts watch the carnage that will follow
Quote from: winner (n) on Sep 19, 2024, 11:48 AMEconomy not doing too bad
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/129634/david-hargreaves-assesses-prospects-forthcoming-quarterly-gdp-figures-which-are
You sure about that mate? Turners performance against the bleakness of the economy is quite extraordinary. Certainly, its notable the quite stark difference in Turners very positive market update yesterday as compared to 2CC's update today.
Quote from: Basil on Sep 19, 2024, 12:39 PMhttps://www.interest.co.nz/economy/129634/david-hargreaves-assesses-prospects-forthcoming-quarterly-gdp-figures-which-are
You sure about that mate? Turners performance against the bleakness of the economy is quite extraordinary. Certainly, its notable the quite stark difference in Turners very positive market update yesterday as compared to 2CC's update today.
GDP just a number .....and affected by many factors like this from one report -
As Stats NZ had noted, changes in the timing of tobacco imports have disrupted the pattern of quarterly GDP to some degree, boosting growth in the March quarter and acting as a drag on growth this time.
TRA has become a barometer for the economy...
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/129812/new-zealand%E2%80%99s-capita-recession-has-surpassed-global-financial-crisis-after
Quote from: Waltzing on Sep 20, 2024, 07:39 AMTRA has become a barometer for the economy...
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/129812/new-zealand%E2%80%99s-capita-recession-has-surpassed-global-financial-crisis-after
So economy in pretty good shape waltz
TRA has been an exceptional performer despite the recession of the last 2 years and the years of Covid challenges prior to that.
I think its the exception to the rule rather than a barometer of the economy. HLG has also done very well in the circumstances.
https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/09/19/gdp-nzs-economy-shrinks-by-02/
Both TRA and HLG have been very strong swimmers against the current.
Quote from: lorraina on Sep 20, 2024, 10:37 AMBoth TRA and HLG have been very strong swimmers against the current.
To be fair, there have been quite a few on NZX doing well against the current.....GTK, TWR, FPH, IFT etc
weeel according to the papers the eco system is in terrible shape...
if TRA is up maybe its because no one can afford new wheels...
if its a slow coach eco system then TRA could be 5 dollars by this time next year and blue skies after dat...
$5 party at next year's annual meeting, you read it here first. In the meantime, there's the attractive ~ 9% gross yield to enjoy 8)
by 2030? why sell any of these....
https://www.taxpayers.org.nz/the_reserve_bank_engineered_recession
while the country is in a Paint it Red mood
this stock is in the green this week... 5 dollars by march 31 2025?
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/129822/economists-call-faster-rate-cuts-recent-slowdown-economic-activity-outpaces-2008
Talked with Todd a while back. 1% reduction in OCR worth $1.2m extra NIM on their loan book, probably more with growth in their ledger since then. Also more acconodative interest rates means more sales which is fuel into the flywheel of their other divisions, finance and insurance. Wouldn't surprise me if they got their FY28 target of $65m in FY27.
Might need to watch the replay of ASM to see Hamish
From BusinessDesk
Show us your margins When Turners chair Grant Baker opened the car retailer's annual meeting this week offering a Tina from Turners-shaped air freshener for best question, he probably got a bit more than anticipated.
In one of the more dramatic AGMs of the year, shareholder Hamish managed to question the board for about 10 of the 30 minutes of question time.
Hamish got into the nitty gritty – probing the board on its profit margins and questioning whether they were sustainable because, according to Hamish, Turners was getting bad Google reviews. Hamish cited a Deloitte report that suggested the average industry margin for used car sales was between 3% and 4%, when his assumption from Turners' financials was the NZX firm's margins were 10%. This was followed by A LOT of back and forth between Hamish and group chief financial officer Aaron Saunders on how margins are calculated, what other divisions were driving growth and how goodwill works.
Hamish had "done some research" and concluded that poor Google reviews would eventually hit Turners' bottom line.
Going into the 10th minute of questions, CEO Todd Hunter decided to intervene. "Your statement about above industry margins is just wrong," he said quite flatly, ignoring Hamish's bids to interrupt. "We are a high-volume, low-margin business... are not making double the amount of other used vehicle providers in NZ."
Hamish said "negative experiences" were creating a liability that was "concerning and problematic." "I'm not concerned a bit," said Hunter, who then stood to question the shareholder. "What's your business Hamish?" "I'm a used car dealer, but my questions are still valid," came the response. "Are you a competitor?" asked Saunders. "In some spaces, yes," Hamish replied, and then promptly shut up. Incidentally, Baker forgot to give out the air freshener.
Better keep an eye on these negative reviews in case Hamish is right and they will impact the bottom line
gosh ... hamish must be really upset that hes not running Turners...
code word for Pixxed...
TRA is a integrated one stop shop and probably the go to for fleets and government ...
volume matters ... scale ect..
second hand scrap metal has always been big business...
and used to look at all those holden and falcons and wonder where are they all going to go.. the crusher?
My opinion is along the lines of what Todd said re the negative reviews.
Most people expect to get x for their, cause that's what they may get if sold privately, forgetting the any car dealer needs to make a profit and only offers y!
Plus, in general you are more likely to write a negative review that a postive one.
I always remember that when looking at reviews from the likes of Google, on business websites etc, at the same time looking out for fake glowing reviews!
I think Hamish may have been a bit jealous!
yup and if they did that well when the RBNZ was ....
just wait a few years as the shambles government sorts out the eco system trying to cut the red tape in the red ink economy...
art all government a bit of the shambles on the run?
RBNZ's new theme song ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_3eC35LoF4U
notice all those new tin sheds they are putting up squeezing the local car yards? Boy hamish must be scared SXXtless...
LOL full of envy I'd say. It's not fair you guys are posting years of consequtive recod results while I'm struggling to stay afloat.
Quote from: Basil on Sep 22, 2024, 11:29 AMLOL full of envy I'd say. It's not fair you guys are posting years of consequtive recod results while I'm struggling to stay afloat.
Amazing Hamish survived the meeting ......passionate shareholders who see Turners doing no wrong should have lynched him.
Quote from: winner (n) on Sep 22, 2024, 11:41 AMAmazing Hamish survived the meeting ......passionate shareholders who see Turners doing no wrong should have lynched him.
LOL, I think he'll be on a very short leash at the next annual meeting assuming he is brave enough to even attend.
Só HY25 going to be greater than HY24 ... and a record
If PBT is $26.6m (another record) than rolling 12 month PBT will $50.0m (a record) ..and that $26.6m is only 3.5% growth so they'll smash through $50.0m
Surely second half of year might go backwards so the master seduced Todd can keep spinning the $50m yarn for another six months or so.
expecting most SP's to lift on the rising tide.. or in eco case a lower OCR...
TRA may not reach new records.. but does not mean its SP wont increase by 2030 and by a good amount....
Quote from: winner (n) on Sep 22, 2024, 01:23 PMSó HY25 going to be greater than HY24 ... and a record
This is what Todd said on 21 May about the outlook when announcing the record FY24 report, emphasis added.
QuoteOutlook: An anticipated deterioration in economic conditions during HY25, combined with cycling against a high-growth HY24 comparative period arising in part from extreme weather events, means we expect HY25 to be testing. Our near term focus remains on exceeding the $50M NPBT goal in FY25, despite the economic backdrop. Beyond FY25, Turners is well-placed to continue to make strong progress, thanks to the resilience of a diversified business model (activity and annuity), and clear strategy for further growth.
I draw a LOT of confidence about the future from how resilient they've proven to be over many years now.
Just quietly, I was expecting a soft trading update at the annual meeting, given how economically freezing it was over winter. Fair to say I was also expecting some impact from bad and doubtful debtors, perhaps not HGH scope, but some impact, nevertheless.
Fait to say the update was very pleasing indeed and appears to have exceeded their own earlier expectations.
I know Kingfish's investment manager Matt Peek has, or has had a meeting scheduled with Todd and Aaron this month. I'd wager they liked what was discussed and the trading update and there's lots of money set to flow from Fisher funds to invest in Turners.
I told Matt at their ASM that the guys at Discovery liked Turners, (I asked them), but thought it was too illiquid for them to invest. Interestingly, that comment didn't put Matt off. I bought a few more Turners this week because I think the investment case and metrics are truly compelling and I think some of the fund managers are going to support it more going forward and weight of buying demand, the high and growing yield and growing eps should see the price move north in the years ahead. How far north, time will tell but I am content to keep reinvesting my quarterly dividends with shares in lieu, thereby gradually growing my investment on a compounding quarterly basis.
heading up nicely break 60 this week or consolidation ahead...
not far from 5 now....
lots of OCR cuts coming by march 31 2025..
See 2 Cheap Cars report YTD sales volume uo 14% but margins and NPAT down quite a lot
Methinks maybe that Hamish guy who caused a stir at turners ASM about their 'high' margins was a Cheap Cars plant
if it hits 4 again well then with OCR cutting now here and OIL being cut as the SD's say they are going to PUMP PUMP PUMP ... maybe they have woken up and see that solar and wind while not effecting sale of OIL yet it will be a case of get that stuff out of the ground and sell it while you can....
wake up its time to PUMP PUMP before those assets are worthless....
TRA as a large scale mover of scrap metal then it maybe a great chance to top up... AGAIN....
Basil was asking for some 10 year graphs and they were on my 'to do' list so here they are. No commentary from me.....please interpret as you see fit. My CAGR calculations in other threads were out by 1 period so I won't post any for fear of getting them wrong.
Some notes for context:
~ share count for 2015 was adjusted for the 10/1 stock split in 2016
~ I started with 2015 given that is the modern version of TRA
~ 2015 sales and NPAT reduced by $7m by me for the reorganisation gain which probably should have been in comprehensive income
~ I have excluded all unrealised 'other income' items and the 'wage subsidies' from total sales, but these remain for NPAT purposes (I interpret wage subsidies as a cost reimbursement, not sales income from trading)
~ 2022 only has 3 dividends but 2024 has 5 dividends hence the weird movements on the dividend graph
Forecasts:
~ FY25: Todd has stated $50m NPBT will be exceeded for 2025, which should yield >$36m NPAT at 28% tax (40c+ EPS)
~ FY28: Todd also provided a new target of $65m NPBT for 2028, which should yield about $47m NPAT (52c EPS on current share count)
TRA EPS 2024 - Copy.JPG
TRA Div 2024 - Copy.JPG
TRA Debts 2024 - Copy.JPG
TRA Equity 2024 - Copy.JPG
Interim divie 6.0 cents
Same as last year ....at least it wasn't less
its actually going up ...
not by much ... but it is incremental ...
Code Ex Dividend Period Amount Supp. Imputation Payable Currency
===================================================================
TRA 17 Jul 2024 Final 7.500c 1.324c 2.917c 26 Jul 2024 NZD
TRA 11 Mar 2024 Interim 6.000c 1.059c 2.333c 27 Mar 2024 NZD
TRA 8 Jan 2024 Interim 6.000c 1.059c 2.333c 26 Jan 2024 NZD
TRA 10 Oct 2023 Interim 6.000c 1.059c 2.333c 27 Oct 2023 NZD
TRA 10 Jul 2023 Final 7.000c 1.235c 2.722c 28 Jul 2023 NZD
TRA 14 Apr 2023 Interim 6.000c 1.059c 2.333c 27 Apr 2023 NZD
TRA 11 Jan 2023 Interim 5.000c 0.882c 1.944c 26 Jan 2023 NZD
TRA 11 Oct 2022 Interim 5.000c 0.882c 1.944c 27 Oct 2022 NZD
TRA 18 Jul 2022 Interim 7.000c 1.235c 2.722c 28 Jul 2022 NZD
TRA 6 Apr 2022 Interim 6.000c 1.059c 2.333c 20 Apr 2022 NZD
TRA 17 Jan 2022 Interim 5.000c 0.882c 1.944c 27 Jan 2022 NZD
TRA 18 Oct 2021 Interim 5.000c 0.882c 1.944c 28 Oct 2021 NZD
OCR cuts are coming and they may be bigger than expected...
what if the RBNZ actually caused the recession or rather they panic'd and now is it a 2-5 or a 5-0 not long now....
remember nothing after NOV till feb...
Quote from: Waltzing on Oct 03, 2024, 04:50 PMOCR cuts are coming and they may be bigger than expected...
what if the RBNZ actually caused the recession or rather they panic'd and now is it a 2-5 or a 5-0 not long now....
remember nothing after NOV till feb...
What's with the 3 month holiday , Orrsum for some .
They dont work from home.....Old bach's ...Traditional holiday...
Forsyth Barr updated Turners on 19 Sept after their recent annual meeting the previous day where guidance was given of above $50m. Might be worth having a look at the metrics given the share price has increased a bit lately to $4.60 and asking the question is it too late ?
FY25 FY26 FY27
41.9 46.4 51.4 EPS
27.0 30.0 34.0 DPS
37.5 41.6 47.2 Gross DPS
8.15 9.04 10.3 Gross Yield %
11.0 9.90 8.90 PE
RBNZ looking to cut this coming week, 50 bps ?
My opinion. Its important to look ahead as for Turners half of FY25 is already over.
I note the forward PE of 9.90 for FY26 is something normally associated with a no growth company despite Turners outstanding growth in recent years since the game changing Tina marketing campaign was created and the very plausible target of $65m NPBT for FY28 indicating ~ 10% CAGR going forward.
Buying a proven growth company with a gross yield of 9% next year on what amounts to a no growth PE of 10, it seems to me, you are getting their proven track record of growth for nothing. Given the true brilliance of their marketing campaign, the proven management prowess of Todd, Aaron and the team and their well proven track record of growing across the economic cycle as well as the fact we are currently traversing the bottom of the economic cycle with well-known tailwinds to start accruing from RBNZ cutting interest rates, this still looks like excellent buying to me.
A good place to get high and growing yield in a falling interest rate environment with quite moderate risk? You be the judge.
For me, it still boggles my mind that they've been able to achieve record profits four years in a row and yet another one forecast for FY25, since FY20 amid all the dramas of the Covid pandemic and more recently right through the depths of the recession and cost of living crisis. How do they do it ?
Disc: My biggest position on the NZX.
I agree Basil. I just wish I didn't have to pay that extra 11% tax top up to the highest marginal rate.
Picked up a few today. Unless there has been some creative accounting going on, I'm expecting TRA to benefit from the lower interest rate environment and hopefully improving economy.
Todd Hunter told me recently that for each 100 bps of cuts that feeds through directly to $1.2m per annum in extra net interest margin.
On top of that is the general improvement in the economy leading to more confidence, sales, insurance and finance agreements being written.
I think their FY28 target of $65m NPBT is quite plausible and its quite possible they could exceed that.
Todd and Aaron are good honest straight shooters. I have complete confidence in them.
If there's any justice in this world, we should get a 50 bps interest rate reduction tomorrow and another one of the same size next month making high yielding growth stocks like Turners even more attractive. A while back I posted we could look forward to the $5 share price party at next year's annual meeting but maybe that party might happen a bit sooner?
chair leading require here...
TRA TRA TRA TRA ... everyone shout together like at a match...
and with fast track coming will the NZ economy finally get some traction in the rest of the decade ....
could the little country actually out perform?
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/130140/construction-boom-could-act-%E2%80%98circuit-breaker%E2%80%99-and-drive-new-zealand-economy-out
Notice the companies in this rear endorsement of government policy that are mentioned for a direct benefit...
but will this not also benefit the wider economy as the supply chain is tapped by the construction industries..
Quote from: Basil on Jul 15, 2024, 03:45 PMFinally got around to reading Turners 2024 annual report this morning. I'm a bit old fashioned and like to read the physical report.
A few thoughts.
It's clear the RBNZ pivot will directly translate into strong eps growth in the finance division in the years ahead as lower floating rate funding covers fixed rate lending previously undertaken at much higher rates and I expect significant NIM expansion on their circa $420m loan book.
A clear pathway to growth through branch expansion, driving increased market share and increasing brand awareness which translates to further growth in their insurance and finance book. Interesting to note from the report as well as their known and already disclosed branch expansion plans, they have a "number of conditional offers in the market" which I presume relates to further land acquisition possibilities.
Their new initiative of direct-to-consumer insurance for mechanical breakdown and the like looks like a really interesting initiative given circa 50% of all sales are consumer to consumer direct.
Top 7 executives are all degree qualified, most at Auckland University, (ask me if I think that's a really high quality degree :D ), and it almost looks like an Auckland University alumni group, all very highly experienced and been in the industry and their current position for ages. A very highly qualified, experienced and stable, high performing leadership team.
Trades cum the fully imputed 7.5 cent final divvy. Gross yield about 9% for FY25 by my estimate and well worth noting they have grown the level of dividends by ~ 40% in the last 4 years.
We all know Turners are multi award winning with their "Tina" marketing campaign, but interestingly they were finalists in the 2023 Effie Awards (Global best of the best marketing awards).
Turners provides a pretty unique combination of very high dividend yield with strong growth. Targeting $65m NPBT by FY28 which would see a 10 year CAGR of just under 10%. Very impressive operation.
Disc: My biggest NZX position by quite some way.
I posted this a while back and expressed my confidence around the quality of the degree that laid the foundation for all the top executive's stellar careers. I then had a good-natured debate, (I think it was with Fiordland Moose, who argued Otago was better), of course we are both biased lol. I believe this settles the debate once and for all :)
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/auckland-otago-tumble-in-just-released-world-university-rankings/F5HHYWPNFBFXPC7YZV2HYZMKIA/
There's no thread for RNBZ announcements so I will post this in here seeing as cuts feed straight through to the bottom line.
RBNZ cuts by 50 bps, full announcement here https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/hub/news/2024/10/ocr-4-75-monetary-restraint-reduced-as-inflation-converges-to-target
Now for the really interesting thing I found out in my research today. The last time economic conditions were this bad, (widely acknowledged by many economists and commentators as the GFC), interest rates were cut from 8.25% in June 2008 to just 2.50% by April 2009. Maybe keep the very high speed of that fall front and central in mind when looking at locking in the opportunity to earn great dividend yields on proven performers, such as for example, TRA.
Put another way, and as Craigs recently said in an institutional research paper, this is the time to be fully invested.
Spot on Basil. ....rate cuts and punters seek good stocks with decent divies
And TRA shoots up to $4.78
OnlyvWednesday ...maybe 5 bucks Friday
Oh what a wonderful day ....
Quote from: winner (n) on Oct 09, 2024, 03:45 PMSpot on Basil. ....rate cuts and punters seek good stocks with decent divies
And TRA shoots up to $4.78
OnlyvWednesday ...maybe 5 bucks Friday
Mate, you were spot on with HLG hitting $7 by the end of last week, (now even higher), so I wouldn't bet against that happening. RBNZ should cut by another 50-bps next month and again in February. That's circa $2m per annum straight onto TRA's bottom line for FY26 with increased NIM with some of that to accrue this year.
The Salt Funds guy said on Market Close .... Turners Automotive was up 10c or 2.16% to $4.74, with the pressure coming off its finance book, which is funded on floating rates.
Cool eh
Quote from: winner (n) on Oct 09, 2024, 06:49 PMThe Salt Funds guy said on Market Close .... Turners Automotive was up 10c or 2.16% to $4.74, with the pressure coming off its finance book, which is funded on floating rates.
Cool eh
Proven growth company that still trades very cheaply at about 10 times next years earnings (FY26), with strong tailwinds accruing from lower funding costs. What's not to love...I'll tell ya, the only negative I can think of is the fact that Tina doesn't dish out hugs at the annual meeting lol
slightly off topic..
employment expect to go over 6?
whooops ...
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/130170/inflation-has-been-defeated-and-reserve-bank-moving-swiftly-normalise-interest-rates
cheap cars the way to go ...
price in hamilton area varied nearly 15 cents at the pumps...
75 cut? surely not ...
"Toplis said it would not be enough for the RBNZ to move rates to a neutral position and then stop there. It will need to stimulate the economy to prevent deflation and instability."
wow .. even the dog days of summer to come might be hot for the country ...
whats the weather doing this summer ... Droughts?
Was wondering if TRA was heading into 'overvalued' territory so updated an old chart
Maybe it is but looks OK at the moment. Based on trailing numbers.
IMG_5934.png
cheers - interesting chart. I didn't realize that PE and P/B are that well correlated.
nice pastels ...
Quote from: BlackPeter on Oct 10, 2024, 03:48 PMcheers - interesting chart. I didn't realize that PE and P/B are that well correlated.
Think PE is Price/Earnings and P/B is Price / Equity ....throw in Earnings is Return on Equity (ROE) and it might become a bit clearer
Quote from: winner (n) on Oct 10, 2024, 04:29 PMThink PE is Price/Earnings and P/B is Price / Equity ....throw in Earnings is Return on Equity (ROE) and it might become a bit clearer
Yes, sure - they both have the same numerator (i.e. price). However, looking at the denominators - I normally would assume that earnings changes faster than book value, which makes the correlation a bit surprising ... but than - maybe they (the board) are quick enough to change the book value (as they should) as a function of the earnings potential, to make it fit.
The apparent correlation between PE and P/B multiples arises because Turners is a relatively consistent performer, esp in respect of its ROE.
The consistent ROEs along with a relatively high dividend payout rate makes it 'easy' for the market to value TRA whether they use PE orvP/B multiples ...after they are related.
I pulled some key performance ratios out for Turners to show the degree of consistency.
They also highlight the 'resilience' of the business model during good and bad times. Almost.
Anyway a good overview which if anything else gives shareholders a feeling of reassurance
IMG_5936.png
Great post by Muse on the other channel.
QuoteMy response was an off the hip comment so thought I better go back and check. Page 39 of the ASM preso talks to an increased hedge position of Oxford borrowings to ~75%, and the FY24 annual report says interest rate swaps in place over $257m. Unclear if Salt Funds were talking about % floatings vs the % effectively hedged with the later the one that counts.
So as floating rates fall, so to will the cost of the 25% unhedged position (finance receivable income will be fixed, 75% of finance receivable funding interest expense will be fixed, so NIM should benefit to the extent that floating rates over the 25% unhedged funding falls).
Interestingly enough, the ASM preso noted some older and lower priced swaps ran off in Q1 FY25 which will have a negative impact on NIM% in 1H25, but that should unwind in H2FY25. NIM isn't just a function of the fixed receipts from lending and the hedged borrowing costs, and whatever happens to the floating costs, but also the competitive situation at the time. NIM compression looks to have bottomed in 1H24 and growing in 2h24. first half 25 might not show linear growth as the old historic low cost swaps roll off but should continue to improve (in my view) throughtout the year and hereafter. Business has been pretty open that NIM should start to increase as rates fall.
Other interesting thing that gets less attention here and elsewhere is the impact of interest rates on the insurance business. TRA's insurance business has to comply with RBNZ solvency standards, and holds $62m in term deposits which I understand are fixed at relatively short maturities. Since FY20 these deposits looked to have ranged from 55-62m. So when term deposits were low this 'float' (oh dear just I just use that term) didn't earn much and that certainly changed over the last 18 months. In FY22 for instance TRA booked $761k in interest income from bank accounts and short term deposits, with that rising to $3.9m in FY24 (an increase of $3.1m). One would think that as short term deposits fall it will result in a proportional drop in the interest income from the insurance deposits, which as 100% profit has a direct impact on pre-tax earnings.
The insurance business has performed well - FY22 pbt of $11.6m rising to 14.3m in FY24 - an increase of $2.7m, or less than the increase in short term deposit income. This has helped offset a portion of the $5.5m compression in the finance division over the same time period.
It's just worth recalling there are different pistons to the TRA business...insurance has benefited while finance declined, and that has made the overall group results more resilient, but the inverse ought to be true as rates fall. Term deposits not going back to 2021-2022 levels so I'd imagine the interest rate driven fall in the insurance division wont be as significant as when it was a tailwind (if that makes sense), and the finance book may have more to gain and more than offset insurance and so net net may/likely still be a positive for the group all things equal. and all things aren't equal falling rates are fundamentally positive for the economy, potential retail customers, and the auto retail division which feeds all other divisions (ex credit mgmt). Personally I don't fret about this point; there are so many great organic initiatives underway and the business seems to be in a sweet spot in the auto retail market at the moment. Yes it would be nice for all the divisions to fire at the same time when on the way up, but for long term holders like myself resiliency in aggregate earnings and dividend distributions are more important than short term sugar hits.
I have to admit I don't follow the detail in all this as much as I used to. I guess that's a function of my confidence in the business and the superb management team - not just Todd but all the other execs, and the Board as well. If there is a presentation I'll still join if I'm free but its a nice place to be, having the confidence to zone out a bit. Happy to be corrected if I've got anything wrong above.
Turners Subscription is "closed for business". https://www.turnerssubscription.co.nz
I wonder whether this has anything to do with Carly being in suspension on ASX for about 3+ weeks (and extended today) due to 'funding and financing arrangements'?
Tina being interviewed on Seven Sharp tonight
Saw that, a free advert for Turners!
Don't think it said a "sponsored" slot
Turners now a TINA...
a national instut after RBNZ quotes her and now shes on the local news shows..
powerful advertising..
Ticker code to TINA would be good idea
WOW imagine that ...its a TINA...
Quote from: winner (n) on Oct 23, 2024, 02:36 PMTicker code to TINA would be good idea
Please, NO - don't! .... no need to screw up all the spreadsheets and trend charts with a new ticker. Was bad enough with Heartlands changing the ticker several times, and just look where they are now :) ;
thats where you have a lookup table in a workbooks that get loaded by VBA module and then you do a function lookup to VBA module function and lookup the workbook and fiddle around and about for ages making it work....
then next summer you emerge wondering where your year went....
Quote from: Waltzing on Oct 23, 2024, 01:37 PMTurners now a TINA...
a national instut after RBNZ quotes her and now shes on the local news shows..
powerful advertising..
In case you missed it....Turners.jpg
yes it was an amazing moment when the reserve bank endorses TINA..
well it hasnt push to SP up but heres hoping ...
the RBNZ may disappoint on the next cut ...
"SLOWING DOWN
Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr says they will be more 'circumspect' with reducing interest rates relative to the speed at which they went up, which 'is the general idea'."
interest.co.nz
Turners bound to win
Deloittes Top 200 Awards ......Finalists for Company of the Year are Fonterra, Port of Auckland and Turners Automotive.
By the way Oceania finalist in Sustainability Leadership
Quote from: winner (n) on Oct 31, 2024, 07:53 AMTurners bound to win
Deloittes Top 200 Awards ......Finalists for Company of the Year are Fonterra, Port of Auckland and Turners Automotive.
By the way Oceania finalist in Sustainability Leadership
Hmm - not quite sure whether it is good that they put our TRA into the same group as Fonterror (extremely cyclical company and always good for a bad surprise) and Port of Aucklands (badly managed infrastructure facility, high accident rate and low earnings rate). Hope they erred.
On the other hand - sustainability is good. Well, much better than the opposite ("not capable of being sustained"), isn't it? Hey, they can't get it always wrong, can they?
well they have lumped it in with the big boys...
national clearing house for transport...
do they sell small transport as well..
Dealer to public sales very strong in October, up 11.50%
https://www.turners.co.nz/globalassets/terms-and-conditions/market-report-cars---October-2024.pdf
Looking forward to Turners posting a new record interim profit later this month. With the RBNZ cutting interest rates and that feeding directly through to higher NIM Turners appear very well positioned as they continue to expand their branch network in the years ahead.
Forsyth Barr commented in late Sept 2024
"TRA's 12-month forward PE of ~10x as undemanding in light of the robust earnings growth outlook and
building track record of execution. TRA has also expanded its service offering and addressable market with investments in
Quashed and My Auto Shop. Retain OUTPERFORM, with an increased target price of NZ$5.41".
I note gross forecast yield based on forecast dividends of 27 cps for FY25, fully imputed is 8.33% paid quarterly at $4.50 and is forecast to grow very strongly in the years ahead.
Looking forward to Turners half year report on Monday 25th. Have added a few more in the last few days because companies on the NZX with a compelling growth story on extremely attractive metrics like this are as rare as hens teeth.
The TRA sell side is looking very light. Nice as a holder but frustrating when you are trying to acquire some more!
blame the advertising ... beep beep
Not wanting to rain on the parade ... I know TRA is doing amazing - they really are!
Quite sobering though to read the chairs notes from the CMO (Colonial Motors) AGM earlier this month. I know, different company, but similar industry - and hey - it sounds he sees the industry currently in a pretty bleak spot:
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/441607/attachment/431549/441607-431549.pdf
QuoteNear Term Outlook
I've given you a graphic and purposely negative picture of the trading environment our businesses have experienced and continue to face. The six months we are currently in remains 'tough' as we sort our way through cost reduction requirements across the Group. This is an over-supplied so over-competitive market, where some of our competition are 'moving the metal' just to keep cash flowing. The market and the economy remain flat at best. At our core, CMC is a 'new vehicle' retail and service business that rides the wave of consumer confidence and discretionary income. Our view of the forward market is dominated by the immediate economic issues we can all see. New Zealand should not underestimate the potential disruptive influences that lurk off-shore and the potential for further supply chain disruption from global conflicts. These could impact exchange rates and oil prices at any time – one gets the feeling we are inches from that in the Middle East.
So here are some comments you won't hear from me today:
- green shoots
- I think the worst is over
- lower interest rates will solve all our challenges
Maybe its just a case of "we (as TRA shareholders) don't know how lucky we are"?
anyway, lets hope its not a case of "the worst is still to come"
No doubt, Tina will fix it.
Comparing chalk and Cheese. New car market is a mess, especially Colonial motors brands with their lack of innovation and being thrashed by cheaper Chinese brands.
Turners will report yet another record result on Monday.
The brand power of Tina is amazing.
well if this is the big deep economic hole spot ...
then image how hard it will be to get the share in 2 to 3 years...
Just posting the headlines from the interim announcement last year to make it easy to compare to the result tomorrow.
Quote22 November 2023
Turners delivers record HY result, driven by Auto Retail.
Turners Automotive Group (NZX/ASX: TRA) achieved a record result for the six
months to 30 September 2023, despite a challenging macro environment. This
demonstrates the resilience of Turners' diversified business underpinned by a
strong team culture and a focus on implementing an effective strategy for
organic growth.
Key HY24 financial metrics
o Revenue $214.2m (+16%)
o EBIT $30.2m (+16%)
o NPBT $25.7m (+10%)
o NPAT $18.5m (+8%)
o Earnings per share 21.2 cps (+7%)
o Q2 fully imputed dividend declared at 6.0 cps
will they need to do a share split in 10 years?
Tomorrow's result needs to be reviewed in the context of the prevailing economic conditions.
I think it's widely understood the 6 months to 30 September in the N.Z. economy has been exceptionally tough. Many retailers have been saying it's been worse than the GFC. Against a background of incredibly strong headwinds, and their previous acknowledgement of an unfavorable interest rate swap that rolled over in the first half, that they have previously signaled they expect yet another record result, quite frankly blows my mind.
I'm not expecting the levels of gains this half that you see in post #1106 above in last years' interim result because to achieve that in the extreme depths of the recession this last winter would be a superhuman performance that's simply not possible. That's there's any gains from last year's result, itself a new record, at all is something to be celebrated in my opinion.
The RBNZ are widely expected to cut 50 bps cut on Wednesday and this will feed through directly into lower cost of funds for their finance book going forward and hopefully we will see the economy starting to improve in 2025. Looking further out, I'm really looking forward to seeing how Turners perform when the economy eventually starts humming again. $65m NPBT target for FY28 looks quite plausible to me, maybe even more.
H124 NPBT $25.7m
H224 NPBT.$23.4m. Giving full year $49.1m
If H125 is $26.6m ...a new record ....and rolling 12 month is $50m ...wow
No matter what it will be a great result
a deep dark place is where the background seems to depict...
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/130870/updated-treasury-forecasts-will-show-recession-lasting-longer-and-budget-deficits
In light of the above, you'd think it would be common sense for the RBNZ to cut by at least 75 bps on Wednesday but really, why remain restrictive in monetary policy at all? Maybe cutting 100 bps is what's needed.
this comment admit should be on econmic thread...
maybe in light of the comments on growth in the article nothing much since 2014...
100 might not be enough? fire a whole of people in wellington , automate the tax department and close down ministries... reduce tax rates...
heck the kiwi might have a parity party ... AGAIN!!!
Interest rate cuts, no matter whether its 50 or 75 bps on Wednesday the direction is down, down, down for the foreseeable future and that's great for TRA. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/markets-with-madison/markets-with-madison-rate-cuts/NGOXYFIDASPHNQJ436OVVTD56U/
Results out and as per my expectations indicated yesterday, growth in the face of fierce economic headwinds has slowed a bit from the gains enjoyed last year. A new interim profit record and on track for yet another full year record profit, (that will make it five years in a row). A very impressive result in the circumstances. WOW look at the dividend expectation this year of at least 27 cps ! I posted a few highlights from the presentation below.
Resilient, diversified business model continues to grow value through the cycle
Key HY24 financial metrics
• Revenue $209.0m (- 2%)
• EBIT $31.0m (+3%)
• NPBT $26.9m (+5%)
• NPAT $19.3m (+4%)
• Earnings per share 21.8 cps (+2%)
Highlights
• Record net profit before tax (NPBT) of $26.9m for HY24 (HY23 $25.7m), 5% higher than the same period last year, proving resilience through the cycle during a significant retail downturn
• Reaffirm September 2024 guidance that the business is on track for another record result for FY25, exceeding $50m NPBT target, which was first communicated in [xx date]
• Forecast FY25 dividend of at least 27 cps up 6% on pcp and capping a decade of strongly growing dividends from 10 cps in FY15
• Earning diversification proven again, with lower Auto Retail revenue offset by strong results for Finance, Insurance and Credit Management, as expected
• Consumer sentiment downturn put pressure on vehicle prices, reducing margins during the period, but now showing signs of recovery
• Resilient used car volumes, despite new car demand plummeting
• Motivated team with high levels of employee engagement and share ownership
• Sustained high performance acknowledged by a range of awards for the company, including finalist in Company of the Year 2024 in Deloitte Top 200 Awards
• Q2 dividend declared at 7.0 cps
Full announcement here https://www.nzx.com/announcements/442516
Presentation https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/442516/attachment/432694/442516-432694.pdf
Noting this statement from the presentation 2H25 trading expected to strengthen across all divisions....(page 5)
How's this ! Marketing association - "Tina" is the Greatest add campaign for the last 50 years !! - page 6
Vehicle pricing pressure persisted through Q1 with signs of improvement in Q2/Q3 - page 8
Q3 update page 11 Q3 Update
• Auto Retail: Volumes elevated with
margins improving.
• Finance: Arrears continue to perform
well with originations starting to lift.
The benefit of easing OCR is
expected in H2.
• Insurance: Claims continue to track
below expectations, GWP holding up
well.
I'm really liking how profitability in insurance has grown over the years and margin on finance has recovered this half, see page 15,.
Growth in dividends over the last decade. Page 16. A picture says a thousand words !
Page 25 Pressure on vehicle pricing and margins during
Q1, with strong signs of recovery through
second half of Q2 and early part of Q3.
Really pleasing and solid lift in net interest margin year on year, see page 34.
NPBT on 12 month basis now over $50m
They say full year 'expected to exceed its $50m NPBT target.'
That's reassuring
Resilience used 6 times in announcement
Beat Kiwi Property ...only used that word 5 times
Think everybody is getting carried away with their language these days
At least Todd didn't use the term 'fiercest economic headwinds' 😃
Had to get into the presentation before I completed the Bingo card of 15 popular words
Poor Tina wasn't mentioned in announcement
Page 49 summary...read it for yourself.
Overall a deeply impressive result in my opinion and they have weathered the worst economic storm since the GFC extremely well. Market share grown to 9.5% and headed towards 10%.
Marketing association award - "Tina" is the Greatest marketing campaign for the last 50 years !!
I studied marketing at University as an optional paper and while one paper does not qualify me as an expert by any means lol, in my opinion the Tina campaign is the most brilliant I have ever seen in my lifetime and has been fundamental to growing the Turners business over many years.
I think we have all got a lesson in the power of effective marketing with the Tina campaign. For some of us holders, it's been a very rewarding lesson already and I am highly confident the best is yet to come in the years ahead.
I'm a very happy camper and this is my largest individual stock position on the NZX.
Forgot to say a pretty good result
An out standing result in this market.
Wonder what'll happen to share price today
And it's one of those Adjust Trading days ......strange things happen on these days
Quote from: Basil on Nov 24, 2024, 06:01 PMIn light of the above, you'd think it would be common sense for the RBNZ to cut by at least 75 bps on Wednesday but really, why remain restrictive in monetary policy at all? Maybe cutting 100 bps is what's needed.
Mmh - 10 year US federal bonds close to 4.5%. I wonder whether the gamble of putting Trump back on the throne was like throwing a hand grenade into any economical recovery? Bond market expects interest rates to stay high for a long time. Ignore them at your peril.
Seriously - while the RB might this time still go down a bit, I don't expect them to make a huge step ... and it might well be the last step down in some time to come.
does this mean it better than money in the bank... or land banked...
is it VINDELLATION !!
now was there a minus sign in those reports anywhere and for what... retail sales?
10 dollars by ?
Quote from: Waltzing on Nov 25, 2024, 10:45 AMdoes this mean it better than money in the bank... or land banked...
is it VINDELLATION !!
What on earth does "vindellation" mean?
well are there any shares on the sell side?
truly the living incarnation of TINA ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DdUpeXwDRoQ
Quote from: BlackPeter on Nov 25, 2024, 10:08 AMMmh - 10 year US federal bonds close to 4.5%. I wonder whether the gamble of putting Trump back on the throne was like throwing a hand grenade into any economical recovery? Bond market expects interest rates to stay high for a long time. Ignore them at your peril.
Seriously - while the RB might this time still go down a bit, I don't expect them to make a huge step ... and it might well be the last step down in some time to come.
On same page as you BP .....NZ economic commentators can on only bleat and hope for better times for so long until reality hits home
At least Turners have shown a degree of resilience so if the economy doesn't recover until 2027/2028 a dividend will still be forthcoming
Came across this chart this morning with comment .... Making the GFC look like a blip
IMG_5995.png
how did it all come down to this ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VdLVmL_c4H8
Quote from: winner (n) on Nov 25, 2024, 09:48 AMWonder what'll happen to share price today
And it's one of those Adjust Trading days ......strange things happen on these days
Deserves to be $5 +
Quote from: Basil on Nov 25, 2024, 12:37 PMDeserves to be $5 +
With dividends and big rate cuts over next year deserves to be $7.50 this time next year
What's that +50% plus dividends
5 dollar ...
TRA share price over 5 bucks
We always get to Todd's targets.....eventually...even if takes longer than he said ;)
I hope he's got a higher target now :-)
There's a very clear path to significant earnings growth in the years ahead in addition to the extremely rare achievement of 5 years of record profits right through Covid and the resulting deep, protracted recession.
I'm not sure if any other company on the NZX has performed in such a remarkable manner.
With earnings growth coming from both finance and insurance as well a s a rebound in automotive both from better economic conditions and branch expansion my preliminary thinking is $65m before tax for FY28 looks likely to be an easy beat. Maybe $70-75m is a more realistic target.
oh hes going to be completed vindellated at this rate...
5.10
It is remarkable how the buy-side depth has changed since the interim announcement.
Talk on the call that if they can get about 2% of the highly fragmented vehicle servicing market with their new my auto shop nvestment that could be worth $60-70m in annual revenue. Going to use their muscle in the industry to drive growth. They're not ruling out taking a bigger stake in that venture, currently 50%.
Staff levels have already doubled and they are gearing up for huge growth . There's very good margins in vehicle servicing.
I will give you one guess who is going to front the new vehicle servicing marketing campaign ;D
nothing much left on the sell... if that cut is 100 ...well..
surely not 125..
A friend sent me this today. Gives a good insight into what was discussed on the analysts call.
QuoteTurners shifts gears: Automotive group eyes $70m revenue in repairs and servicing
Rebecca Stevenson | Tue, 26 Nov 2024
My Auto Shop now has 21 employees, with 15 mechanics, Turners says. (Image: My Auto Shop)
Turners Automotive Group says a 2% share of the auto repairs and servicing market could bring in up to $70 million in revenue.
The New Zealand Exchange-listed firm reported its result for the six months to Sept 30 on Monday and despite tough trading conditions for its car sales business reported a rise in profit to $19.3m.
This was Turners' first result since it took a 50% stake in online booking platform and auto repair business My Auto Shop.
Turners said on Monday after five weeks of ownership that My Auto Shop had opened in Hamilton, Tauranga and Wellington and doubled its full-time employee count.
My Auto Shop now had 21 employees with 15 of them mechanics. Six new staff were hired in the past eight weeks, Turners said.
The company has more than 300 Motor Trade Association-approved repairers on its website and its own branded vans and repairers.
Turners said confidence was building that there was a significant opportunity to develop a scaled player in the $3 billion, highly fragmented auto repair market.
2% slice
Turners Automotive Group chief financial officer Aaron Saunders told analysts on Monday that mobile repairs and servicing were a massive growth segment internationally.
My Auto Shop picking up 2% of the NZ market would mean revenue of between $60m and $70m, he said.
Turners currently had about 9% of the used car market in NZ.
It planned to leverage its footprint, customer databases and brand to grow the My Auto Shop business, including using its iconic advertising character Tina from Turners.
"We see a geographic rollout of that business underpinned by our branch network," Saunders said.
Turners paid $3.35m for its stake in the repair and booking platform.
Saunders confirmed Turners could increase that stake in the next few years.
Group chief executive Todd Hunter said the company was already pushing vehicle repair work from its branches to My Auto Shop.
That was a large efficiency gain because My Auto Shop vans coming to the branches saved Turners dropping off and picking up vehicles for repairs or for servicing.
"It is such a time killer."
Cars cars cars
Turners' result saw increased profit from its insurance, lending and credit management arms while its auto retail division felt the economic pinch, with auto retail profit falling 18% to $14.7m.
Turners said auto sales were particularly affected in Auckland and Wellington due to Aucklanders' higher levels of household indebtedness and government cutbacks in Wellington.
The South Island was a standout, Turners said.
With interest rates starting to ease and another interest rate decision this week from the Reserve Bank, Turners said it expected to see a recovery in metro markets.
For the six months to Sept 30, retail division revenue fell 6% to $146.3m.
Overall revenue fell 2% to $209.9m for the period. Net profit before tax was a record $26.9m for the period and 5% higher than the same period last year, "proving resilience through the cycle during a significant retail downturn".
The retailer said weaker consumer sentiment put pressure on vehicle prices and reduced margins during the period, but margins now showed signs of recovery.
Discounting
Turners had materially discounted car prices to meet the market during the period.
Retail auto margins fell 28% in cars it owned, Turners said.
The average margin on vehicles owned and sold fell to $695 in the six months to Sept 30 compared with $1,026 in the prior comparable period.
The average sales price for owned vehicle stock decreased by 11% to $11,600 compared with the first half of the 2024 financial year.
Turners said used car volumes were resilient, despite new car demand plummeting.
It sold 10,050 cars via auction, an increase of 3% on the prior comparable period, while retail sales increased 9% to about 11,050.
Cheaper cars
Saunders said Turners had priced higher-value cars aggressively.
"We really didn't want to own many of them unless it was at the absolute right money for us or pricing. The line we drew was around about $20,000 and in the last two months, we've released some of those shackles a little bit on the branches. We're now much more confident buying cars in that $20,000 to $40,000 price bracket because we've seen some green shoots of demand."
Cheaper cars were currently more appealing to consumers and Turners said it had been repositioning its inventory.
"In the first quarter, we went through quite a transition in vehicle pricing, all related to demand. You need to discount cars more because cars aren't being sold, and to meet where the market is," Hunter said.
He said prices and margins for vehicles had stabilised or increased and Turners was "climbing out of that price transition".
The portfolio effect
Analysts were positive about Turners' result against a backdrop of rising unemployment and economic weakness, with all congratulating Hunter and Saunders on the analysts' call.
Hunter said the result proved the merits of Turners' diversification strategy and that the business could still return profits in tough times.
Hunter said it was very rewarding to produce a record result in a tough environment.
He had received feedback from institutional investors that the business hadn't been tested through a down cycle.
"Here's the proof point."
The "natural stabilisers" of Turners' annuities businesses in finance and insurance demonstrated the strategy to build a business that could grow and deliver value through the cycle was paying off, he said.
Turners' finance arm reported an 11% revenue increase to $33.6m while profit rose 59% to $8.1m.
Turners' total lending ledger increased to $430.9m from $418m.
Lending for commercial vehicles had decreased while consumer lending increased.
Turners said it had tightened its credit policy to focus on cars, vans and utes rather than trucks or machinery lending.
Arrears
Turners said arrears were substantially below industry norms.
Loan arrears were 2.8% while Centrix data showed industry arrears were 6.4%, Turners said.
Hunter said the results in the finance division were a result of repricing its lending book over the past 18 months and making hard decisions to focus on margin, repricing new loans and credit quality.
He said Turners had made 12 price increases over 18 months.
Net interest margin on lending had stabilised and was about 5.4% compared with less than 5% in the prior comparable period.
Revenue for its insurance business increased 4% to $23.7m, profit rose 8% to $7.7m and credit revenue and profit increased 2% to $5.4m and $1.8m respectively.
Forsyth Barr analyst James Lindsay said it was "good to see the portfolio effect kicking in nicely".
Turners will pay a 7 cents per share (cps) dividend for the second quarter and said it expected to pay a full-year dividend of at least 27 cps.
It paid a first-quarter dividend of 6.0 cps.
Oh my my ... lots of money in scrap metal ...soon they will be high tech mobile computers.. they already are..what ever happened to all those Holdens...
Thanks for posting that piece Basil ....Turners doing a lot good things eh
Deserve to be COMPANY OF THE YEAR winner at Deloittes big piss up next week
Quote from: winner (n) on Nov 27, 2024, 08:21 AMThanks for posting that piece Basil ....Turners doing a lot good things eh
Deserve to be COMPANY OF THE YEAR winner at Deloittes big piss up next week
Can only post that thanks to you for sharing it with me, so thank you mate. Agree 100%. The skill with which management have navigated all the extraordinary challenges of the last five years is second to none.
Forsyth Barr's latest note out. Rating OUTPERFORM Price target $5.84
FY26 PE only 11.1 Gross yield for FY26 8.3% rising to 9.4% in FY27
Both Craigs and Forbar clearly articulating that Turners is one of the premier dividend growers on the NZX with ~ 10% CAGR in dividends in the last decade and that's expected to continue.
My comment, Important to look forward to FY26 and beyond because there's only ~ 4 months of FY25 left.
Those are still extremely attractive metrics when you look at their stellar eps and dps growth rates.
Both Craigs and Forbar seem confident of Turners meeting or beating their NPBT target of $65m in FY28 with one of them forecasting $64m NPBT in FY27!
Dividends forecast, (average of both brokers) are FY25 27.75, FY26 30.25, FY27 33.25cps.
finished the day at ? 5.39 ...bets on 6 dollars and when?
April 2025 ? or SOONER?
Hi Basil, are these research notes available to the general public? Thanks
Quote from: Waltzing on Nov 27, 2024, 05:30 PMfinished the day at ? 5.39 ...bets on 6 dollars and when?
April 2025 ? or SOONER?
I'm reluctant to get too specific about price targets when and how high but brokers are forecasting very solid earnings growth in the years ahead and the metrics even at $5.39 look compelling to me considering their extraordinary track record in the last 5 years.
One thing I will say is that I don't think the market really appreciates the power of the marketing the Tina brand has become. I picked their marketing as truly extraordinary long before the Tina campaign started winning multiple awards.
I think its highly likely we will see both some earnings multiple expansion and strong eps growth in the years ahead. Based on $5.39 and estimated average broker dps of 30.25 cps fully imputed for FY26 = 42 cps gross that's 42/539 = 7.8% yield next year, (FY26). Dividends have grown at a 10% CAGR for the last decade and forecast to continue doing so in the years ahead. You can increase that to 7.8% / 0.98 = 7.95% by taking the shares in lieu of dividend at a 2% discount. The way I see it, that's as good as 8% gross yield, growing at 10% per annum for the foreseeable future. In any interest rate environment that's a compelling opportunity but as rates get lower, it becomes truly compelling.
I think the brokers are being very conservative and I expect another valuation upgrade to six dollars something when Turners report their full year result in May 2025 and further upgrades six monthly after that. Winner could well be right with his price target of $7.50 this time next year. I wouldn't bet against it !
With more rate cuts to come and lower term deposit rates along with increasing dividends surely $7.50 on cards by this time next year
Quote from: Dolcile on Nov 27, 2024, 05:30 PMHi Basil, are these research notes available to the general public? Thanks
These research notes are for Fobar clients. However - anybody (as far as I know) can sign up with them. Just need to pay the dues.
https://www.forsythbarr.co.nz/research-library/research/
There seems to be some free access (if you sign up), but this well might be limited (I don't know).
Quote from: winner (n) on Nov 27, 2024, 05:57 PMWith more rate cuts to come and lower term deposit rates along with increasing dividends surely $7.50 on cards by this time next year
RBNZ talking about another 50 bps cut in mid February and targeting getting the OCR down to 3% by mid 2025. That's 175 bps lower than the start of this week. Further cuts might be necessary in the back half of 2025 to stimulate the economy, and we could see an OCR as low as 2.25-2.5% this time next year. That'll make a 8% dividend yield from TRA very attractive especially seeing as it has a decade long proven history of growing at a CAGR of 10% per year!
Is this going to be the NZX most loved stock? could it soon demand a SP handle well above its actual return.
10 dollars by 2031?
If they keep their track record of the last decade intact of growing dividends at a 10% CAGR by FY31 they will be paying 49 cents per share in dividends fully imputed = 68 cps gross. Not sure what part of the interest cycle will be in by then but if we use the currents years gross yield of (27.5 / 0.72) / $5.38 = 7.1% gross as a proxy for what it will be then, that suggests on a dividend discount / yield model the shares will be 68 / 0.071 = $9.58 by 2031, perhaps $10 towards the end of 2031 as investors look forward towards FY32's dividend, so yes, I think $10 by then is quite plausible. I plan to hold long term and find out.
An even higher share price would not surprise me in the slightest because not many people truly understand the power of "Tina", with what's been independently acclaimed as the best marketing campaign of the last 50 years. In much the same way as the famous T.V. personality "Tammy" has driven huge value for Briscoes shareholders over the years, I think the same will happen for Turner's shareholders. I'm so confident in that and Turners management I bought even more shares yesterday despite Turners already being my biggest NZX individual stock position and the shares being at an all-time high. A company growing like this, with very high-quality management and such a well-articulated plan for growth in the years ahead and a forward PE for FY26 of only about 11.5, are not normally numbers that go together, and I expect some pretty decent PE expansion going forward as well as strong earnings growth. Go Tina and Todd ! 😊
The Turner's effect?
This published today in Autofile:
Latest industry figures show nearly 40 traders disappeared from register in the past month.
The number of dealers in New Zealand has hit a new low after tumbling to 2,833 at the end of November, according to figures from the Motor Vehicle Traders Register (MVTR).
The register's total eclipsed the previous low of 2,852 set in June this year and fell by 39 from October's tally of 2,872.
November's figure for registered dealers was also 88 fewer than the 2,921 recorded at the same stage a year ago.
Since peaking at 3,536 in November 2017, the number of dealers has largely been falling and has not surpassed 3,000 since August 2022.
Nice, it's very tough to compete with Tina and Todd. Jarden's quite a while back predicting 12% market share for Turners by FY30, currently 9.5%.
To put the modesties of this expectation into perspective, it's important to note that in the period since the Tina campaign began a few years ago, Turners have roughly doubled their market share, so such a modest 2.5% further increase over the next 5 years does seem VERY conservative. A ~ 14% market share by FY30 or FY31 wouldn't surprise me.
Big piss up at Deloittes awards tonite
TURNERS will be COMPANY OF THE YEAR
Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 05, 2024, 02:27 PMBig piss up at Deloittes awards tonite
TURNERS will be COMPANY OF THE YEAR
Hmm - wasn't Vulcan Steel the 2022 winner? Anybody remembering what happened with their share price in the last 2 years?
Just checking some other winners - FPH made it in 2020, and yes - what a company they are. However - they had a pretty rough stretch after their 2020 award as well. SP just recovered now to its 2020 glory.
So - maybe - lets hope this cup passes from us.
Quote from: BlackPeter on Dec 05, 2024, 02:40 PMHmm - wasn't Vulcan Steel the 2022 winner? Anybody remembering what happened with their share price in the last 2 years?
Just checking some other winners - FPH made it in 2020, and yes - what a company they are. However - they had a pretty rough stretch after their 2020 award as well. SP just recovered now to its 2020 glory.
So - maybe - lets hope this cup passes from us.
Last year Winner was Comvita. The next Annual result for comvita after the award was an massive loss of $77m and the CEO was pussed out of his job it seemed. I am not sure if it is something to be proud of winning those Deloittes awards.
Awards are realy ego trips for top management, something they can rave about for years
But they can generate a lot of goodwill amongst staff, like higher degree of 'engagement' etc etc....it's great working for Company of Year
Awaiting the NZX announcement and seeing what Todd says.
How much credibility should we place on the Auditor's report of companies like Deloittes if with their expertise of supposingly analysing 200 companies, they come up with a winner like Comvita?
Quote from: Stockgathering on Dec 05, 2024, 04:04 PMHow much credibility should we place on the Auditor's report of companies like Deloittes if with their expertise of supposingly analysing 200 companies, they come up with a winner like Comvita?
Judges are not Deloittes people ..independent
Alongside Fran O'Sullivan on the Deloitte Top 200 independent judging panel are Jonathan Mason, Neil Paviour-Smith, Gavin Lonergan, and Hinerangi Raumati-Tu'ua.
Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 05, 2024, 04:38 PMJudges are not Deloittes people ..independent
Alongside Fran O'Sullivan on the Deloitte Top 200 independent judging panel are Jonathan Mason, Neil Paviour-Smith, Gavin Lonergan, and Hinerangi Raumati-Tu'ua.
Ok, that is interesting. So who do you think chooses the judges?
I bought even more Turners yesterday at $5.25. Wanted to buy myself a Christmas present that would confer great benefits and be richly rewarding in the years ahead. Couldn't think of anything better.
Fair enough, if TRA wins the award this year I think the judges are likely looking back in a few years and will be pleased with this years selection.
Quote from: Stockgathering on Dec 05, 2024, 05:04 PMOk, that is interesting. So who do you think chooses the judges?
Probably Fran O'Sullivan as she's associated with partner / main sponsor being NZ Herald
Judges seemed to focus on who's performed well this year. "Fonterror" has had a really patchy track record over the years whereas Turners have hit one record profit after another 5 years running right through Covid and the long, truly depressing recession. Judges got their call wrong in my opinion but I could be biased lol. Go Todd and Tina.
Finally reached the breakout target flagged a year ago, will take a breather IMHO.
TRA_2024-12-06_15-07-58.png
Quote from: Basil on Dec 05, 2024, 12:28 PMNice, it's very tough to compete with Tina and Todd. Jarden's quite a while back predicting 12% market share for Turners by FY30, currently 9.5%.
To put the modesties of this expectation into perspective, it's important to note that in the period since the Tina campaign began a few years ago, Turners have roughly doubled their market share, so such a modest 2.5% further increase over the next 5 years does seem VERY conservative. A ~ 14% market share by FY30 or FY31 wouldn't surprise me.
Roughly doubled a bit of an exaggeration (Basil in love with Tina does that) but going from ~6% to ~9.5% still a pretty good effort
Pity sales $s haven't grown at the same rate but that's a sign of the times with cheaper cars etc etc
But shows THE PLATFORM IS SET FOR GREAT RESULTS IN BETTER TIMES
Still reckon TRA close to 7 bucks this time next year
The market share chart Todd proudly shows
IMG_6008.jpeg
I can't remember exactly when the Tina campaign first kicked off but it seems from media reports it was 2021. https://nzmarketingmag.co.nz/lessons-from-turners-in-driving-fame-and-business-results/#:~:text=Since%20launching%20in%202021%2C%20it%20has%20picked%20up,%E2%80%93%20paying%20itself%20off%20within%20just%20one%20month. What is crystal clear is the slope of the curve, (the rate at which they are gaining market share) has significantly steepened since then.
Interesting article about how the Tina campaign paid for itself within one month.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/markets-with-madison/how-the-tina-from-turners-ad-paid-off-in-a-month/LAJ7NQFB4ZAKFJ3I6OEVSLL2J4/
The compelling forward metrics of Turners suggests to me the market doesn't yet fully appreciate the true brilliance of the Tina campaign and what a powerful influencer it's going to be on driving future growth.
Agree a $7 something handle is a good target for some time in the next 12-24 months. I would prefer not to be too prescriptive on when.
Quote from: Basil on Dec 09, 2024, 01:56 PMI can't remember exactly when the Tina campaign first kicked off but it seems from media reports it was 2021. https://nzmarketingmag.co.nz/lessons-from-turners-in-driving-fame-and-business-results/#:~:text=Since%20launching%20in%202021%2C%20it%20has%20picked%20up,%E2%80%93%20paying%20itself%20off%20within%20just%20one%20month. What is crystal clear is the slope of the curve, (the rate at which they are gaining market share) has significantly steepened since then.
Interesting article about how the Tina campaign paid for itself within one month.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/markets-with-madison/how-the-tina-from-turners-ad-paid-off-in-a-month/LAJ7NQFB4ZAKFJ3I6OEVSLL2J4/
The compelling forward metrics of Turners suggests to me the market doesn't yet fully appreciate the true brilliance of the Tina campaign and what a powerful influencer it's going to be on driving future growth.
Agree a $7 something handle is a good target for some time in the next 12-24 months. I would prefer not to be too prescriptive on when.
Just wondering how many people are still spending their time at the TV watching ads? The only NZ TV we still regularly watch are the news and they are recorded, i.e. we just flick over the ads.
But ok - if we still have enough people enjoying to watch the commercials ... long may Tinas impact last!
Having said that, still more important than entertaining a fraction of the crowd with ads will be providing good products and services at the right price. I hope they keep that as a priority!
Having said that - despite normally considering Turners as well when we are looking out for the next vehicle, they so far never managed to even make our short list. So, maybe you are right ... their phenomenal success might just be based on great marketing of an otherwise quite average product. A somewhat frightening thought, though.
They advertise on SKY T.V. and the radio a lot as well. Probably social media platforms too but I'm not on any. Surely you listen to your radio driving around in your car?
Debate about advertising platforms and effectiveness aside, it is clearly working with a significant steepening in the rate of market share growth since the campaign started several years ago. Market share has in fact climbed from 4% in 2017, per Winners graph to 9.5% in 1Q FY25. That's ~ 2.4 times the market share they have now compared to 8 years ago, most of that gain since the Tina campaign kicked off. Todd said in a recent analysts call that about 90% of the people that ring Turners to sell their car ask to speak to Tina lol.
Some of the share gains would have come from still being 'in the game' .....lot less dealers to compete with Todd says
Quote from: Basil on Dec 10, 2024, 10:55 AMThey advertise on SKY T.V. and the radio a lot as well. Probably social media platforms too but I'm not on any. Surely you listen to your radio driving around in your car?
I do. However - the only NZ channel worthwhile listening to is thank fully ad-free: Radio NZ. Deutsche Welle (over the Internet) is ad-free as well, and BBC so far is tolerable (they do have some ads, but never heard Tina). If we happen to tune accidentally into a different channel (which is quite rare), than we switch the channel as soon as ads start.
Never heard Tina on Radio (despite listening a lot) and only once on the tele (I intentionally stopped to zip the ad to find out what the rave is about).
Quote from: Basil on Dec 10, 2024, 10:55 AMDebate about advertising platforms and effectiveness aside, it is clearly working with a significant steepening in the rate of market share growth since the campaign started several years ago. Market share has in fact climbed from 4% in 2017, per Winners graph to 9.5% in 1Q FY25. That's ~ 2.4 times the market share they have now compared to 8 years ago, most of that gain since the Tina campaign kicked off. Todd said in a recent analysts call that about 90% of the people that ring Turners to sell their car ask to speak to Tina lol.
I don't dispute he numbers. Just find it hard to understand the underlying motivator, but clearly - that's just me.
Wonder what the $118m of property at cost is really worth?
Good use of float and saves paying zillions in rent to 3rd parties
Quote from: BlackPeter on Dec 10, 2024, 11:41 AMI don't dispute he numbers. Just find it hard to understand the underlying motivator, but clearly - that's just me.
I suspect you may not actually be in Todd and Tina's target market.
A few investors keen on picking up some TRA ;)
Quote from: Basil on Dec 09, 2024, 01:56 PMI can't remember exactly when the Tina campaign first kicked off but it seems from media reports it was 2021. https://nzmarketingmag.co.nz/lessons-from-turners-in-driving-fame-and-business-results/#:~:text=Since%20launching%20in%202021%2C%20it%20has%20picked%20up,%E2%80%93%20paying%20itself%20off%20within%20just%20one%20month. What is crystal clear is the slope of the curve, (the rate at which they are gaining market share) has significantly steepened since then.
Interesting article about how the Tina campaign paid for itself within one month.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/markets-with-madison/how-the-tina-from-turners-ad-paid-off-in-a-month/LAJ7NQFB4ZAKFJ3I6OEVSLL2J4/
The compelling forward metrics of Turners suggests to me the market doesn't yet fully appreciate the true brilliance of the Tina campaign and what a powerful influencer it's going to be on driving future growth.
Agree a $7 something handle is a good target for some time in the next 12-24 months. I would prefer not to be too prescriptive on when.
Quote from: Basil on Dec 10, 2024, 10:55 AMThey advertise on SKY T.V. and the radio a lot as well. Probably social media platforms too but I'm not on any. Surely you listen to your radio driving around in your car?
Debate about advertising platforms and effectiveness aside, it is clearly working with a significant steepening in the rate of market share growth since the campaign started several years ago. Market share has in fact climbed from 4% in 2017, per Winners graph to 9.5% in 1Q FY25. That's ~ 2.4 times the market share they have now compared to 8 years ago, most of that gain since the Tina campaign kicked off. Todd said in a recent analysts call that about 90% of the people that ring Turners to sell their car ask to speak to Tina lol.
I like the radio
Quote from: Basil on Dec 10, 2024, 10:55 AMThey advertise on SKY T.V. and the radio a lot as well. Probably social media platforms too but I'm not on any. Surely you listen to your radio driving around in your car?
Debate about advertising platforms and effectiveness aside, it is clearly working with a significant steepening in the rate of market share growth since the campaign started several years ago. Market share has in fact climbed from 4% in 2017, per Winners graph to 9.5% in 1Q FY25. That's ~ 2.4 times the market share they have now compared to 8 years ago, most of that gain since the Tina campaign kicked off. Todd said in a recent analysts call that about 90% of the people that ring Turners to sell their car ask to speak to Tina lol.
I like the radio version where they sing in a real kiwi karaoke type catchy tune and lyrics and the memories of the car they are selling eg... something like... "You got too fat for the seat" and "your sister had a pash in the back" and singing about all the different types of cars they selling.
Quote from: Dolcile on Dec 12, 2024, 03:36 PMA few investors keen on picking up some TRA ;)
New all-time high on solid volume today. I'm expecting very good things in the years ahead.
Still not expensive by any means. Important to look ahead to FY26 as we're only really one quarter away from starting that. Forsyth Barr reckon eps for FY26 is 45.6 so 1 year forward PE is only 12.3. Bloody cheap for such an exceptionally well managed company with a well proven business model that confers a very clear runway of growth in the years ahead.
My #1 listed position on the NZX and its staying that way...until I match it for first equal with buying more HLG shares lol.
Hey Seeweed, it's not too late to join in the party mate. 7 cent fully imputed divvy due next month.
Waltzing sent me this Chat GPT comparison of TRA and HLG. (All figures in my calculations below based on Friday's closing price of $5.27 and $8.30). Calculations are based on Forsyth Barr forecasts for both companies. My own opinion is that the TRA forecast is more likely to be upgraded than their HLG one.
Sorry I haven't had time to check it in any real detail other than to note one or two things, for example that the dividend yields mentioned do not pick gross up the worth of imputation credits.
To gross up full imputation credits multiply the yield shown by 1.39 and for 75% imputation credits multiply it by 1.27.
TRA is a more capital-intensive business because they own their own sites and there's also capital to be applied as part of the vehicle financing business.
Note both have quite different balance dates, March 31 for TRA and 1 August for HLG.
Just very quickly, at $5.27 I have TRA on a FY25 forward PE of 12.5 and gross yield of 7.25%
Note that of they hit broker targets of about 42 cps this year they have grown eps from 24 cps 5 years ago a CAGR of ~ 12% and if dps is 27.5 cps the have grown eps by a CAGR of ~ 15% over that timeframe.
Note for both these companies I use my standard 5 year approach to analysis despite this encapsulating the full Covid period, all the aftereffects of that and the deepest recession since 1991.
For Turners because we're only three months away from the end of the financial year I think it's best to focus on FY26 numbers. Metrics that year are PE 11.5 Gross yield 8.0%. (Note TRA have the best track record of any company on the NZX of growing their dividends over the last decade).
A forward FY26 PE of 11.5 and gross yield of 8.0% are exceptionally attractive metrics to me for a company growing at a CAGR of 12% with a very clear plan for ongoing growth in the years ahead.
Note TRA has paid out an average of 65% of eps in dividends and HLG with its lower capital requirements has paid out 85%. (Recall my comment sin the HLG thread that for good stores than can recover fit out costs within one year.
Metrics for HLG
CAGR in eps for the last 5 years 9%
FY25 PE 11.5 FY26PE 11.1
Gross yield FY25 9.3% FY26 9.7%
I think both these companies still trade on exceptionally attractive metrics given their proven history of strong eps growth over the last 5 years and it boggles my mind that both have performed so well over this period of unprecedented challenges to the economy. We have a very bright future ahead when the economy recovers.
Disc: I have increased the size of my HLG holding to be about the same as TRA, both about 16% portfolio allocation. I have enough diversification with funds like Discovery, Barramundi and Kingfish to feel good about having a rather concentrated position of individual stocks that I pick myself and would rather have fewer very high conviction positions on compelling metrics with management that have well and truly earned my trust and respect than spread it around more.
Anyway, Chat GPT generated output is below in a separate post for what it's worth. I prefer to use my own intelligence than the artificial kind, for as long as I have it lol
Apologies in advance for spelling and grammar errors in this post...at this time of year, sorry, I can't be bothered double checking it.
Chat GPT 4 comparison... may not be accurate.
Financial Comparison: HLG vs. TRA
Revenue and Profit Trends:
Hallenstein Glassons (HLG):
Revenue growth is consistent, projected to increase from NZ$435.6M in FY24 to NZ$515.6M in FY27.
NPAT is expected to rise by 24.5% in FY25, continuing at 3.8% in FY26 and 10.3% in FY27.
Strong performance in Australia is driving growth, with the Glassons AU segment leading profitability.
NZ operations face headwinds, but resilience in margins and market share are noted.
Turners Automotive Group (TRA):
TRA's revenue shows slower growth, expected to rise from NZ$361.2M in FY25 to NZ$431.7M in FY27.
NPAT is projected to increase at a steady pace, from NZ$37.1M in FY25 to NZ$46.2M in FY27.
The Finance segment has rebounded with robust growth due to improved net interest margins, but Auto Retail faces margin pressures.
Valuation Metrics:
HLG's PE ratio is more attractive at 10.4x for FY25 compared to TRA's 12.3x.
HLG's dividend yield is higher, offering 8.1% for FY25, compared to TRA's 5.4%.
Dividend Outlook:
HLG: Known for its stable and increasing dividend payout, with a projected FY25 dividend yield of 8.5%, rising to 9.3% in FY27.
TRA: A premier dividend grower in NZ, offering a gross yield of 7.5% for FY25, with expectations of continued growth.
Risk and Growth Drivers:
HLG:
Growth drivers: Expansion of Glassons Australia, consistent store openings, and a focus on resilience despite volatile margins.
Risks: Challenges in the NZ market and potential supply chain shocks.
TRA:
Growth drivers: Recovery in vehicle pricing, strategic initiatives in Finance, and a track record of effective cost management.
Risks: Dependence on macroeconomic conditions and challenges in the Auto Retail segment due to declining vehicle margins.
Summary
HLG exhibits stronger revenue and NPAT growth, driven by geographical diversification and ambitious store rollouts.
TRA, while stable, shows slower growth but boasts a consistent dividend growth track record.
HLG appears more attractive for growth-oriented investors, whereas TRA suits dividend-focused portfolios. Both companies demonstrate resilience in their respective sectors, but HLG's valuation and growth outlook currently position it ahead.
· Financial Comparison: HLG vs. TRA
Revenue and Profit Trends:
Hallenstein Glassons (HLG):
Revenue growth is consistent, projected to increase from NZ$435.6M in FY24 to NZ$515.6M in FY27.
NPAT is expected to rise by 24.5% in FY25, continuing at 3.8% in FY26 and 10.3% in FY27.
Strong performance in Australia is driving growth, with the Glassons AU segment leading profitability.
NZ operations face headwinds, but resilience in margins and market share are noted.
Turners Automotive Group (TRA):
TRA's revenue shows slower growth, expected to rise from NZ$361.2M in FY25 to NZ$431.7M in FY27.
NPAT is projected to increase at a steady pace, from NZ$37.1M in FY25 to NZ$46.2M in FY27.
The Finance segment has rebounded with robust growth due to improved net interest margins, but Auto Retail faces margin pressures.
Valuation Metrics:
HLG's PE ratio is more attractive at 10.4x for FY25 compared to TRA's 12.3x.
HLG's dividend yield is higher, offering 8.1% for FY25, compared to TRA's 5.4%.
Dividend Outlook:
HLG: Known for its stable and increasing dividend payout, with a projected FY25 dividend yield of 8.5%, rising to 9.3% in FY27.
TRA: A premier dividend grower in NZ, offering a gross yield of 7.5% for FY25, with expectations of continued growth.
Risk and Growth Drivers:
HLG:
Growth drivers: Expansion of Glassons Australia, consistent store openings, and a focus on resilience despite volatile margins.
Risks: Challenges in the NZ market and potential supply chain shocks.
TRA:
Growth drivers: Recovery in vehicle pricing, strategic initiatives in Finance, and a track record of effective cost management.
Risks: Dependence on macroeconomic conditions and challenges in the Auto Retail segment due to declining vehicle margins.
Summary
HLG exhibits stronger revenue and NPAT growth, driven by geographical diversification and ambitious store rollouts.
TRA, while stable, shows slower growth but boasts a consistent dividend growth track record.
HLG appears more attractive for growth-oriented investors, whereas TRA suits dividend-focused portfolios. Both companies demonstrate resilience in their respective sectors, but HLG's valuation and growth outlook currently position it ahead.
· You said:
Compare detail analysis of Profit and Loss performance please
· ChatGPT said:
Detailed Analysis: Profit and Loss Performance of HLG vs. TRA
Revenue Growth:
HLG: Revenue shows a steady growth trajectory, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.8% from FY24 (NZ$435.6M) to FY27 (NZ$515.6M). Key contributors include:
Glassons AU, which is the fastest-growing segment, with revenue increasing from NZ$218.1M in FY24 to NZ$280.9M in FY27.
Hallenstein Brothers and Glassons NZ contribute modestly but are steady performers.
TRA: Revenue is expected to grow more modestly, with a CAGR of 6.1% from FY24 (NZ$361.2M) to FY27 (NZ$431.7M). Segmentation analysis highlights:
Auto Retail accounts for the majority of revenue but experienced margin pressures, limiting growth.
Finance and Insurance segments show consistent increases, with Finance expected to grow from NZ$62.4M in FY24 to NZ$83.5M in FY27.
Gross Margin:
HLG:
Group gross margins have been stable, hovering around 58.6% to 59% over FY25–FY27.
The Glassons AU segment enjoys the highest EBITDA margins, reaching 26.7% in FY27.
Resilience in gross margins is notable despite industry-wide discounting pressures.
TRA:
Gross profit margins range between 7.3% and 7.4% in FY25–FY27, significantly lower than HLG's retail-driven margins.
Gross margins in the Auto Retail segment faced challenges due to declining vehicle pricing but were partly offset by recovery in Finance and Insurance margins.
Net Profit After Tax (NPAT):
HLG:
NPAT grows from NZ$34.5M in FY24 to NZ$49.2M in FY27, reflecting a CAGR of 12.6%.
Growth drivers include:
Expanding store presence, particularly in Australia.
Stable operating costs relative to revenue growth.
TRA:
NPAT increases from NZ$33.0M in FY24 to NZ$46.2M in FY27, reflecting a CAGR of 11.9%.
The primary drivers are:
Recovery in Finance and Insurance segments.
Cost discipline across Auto Retail despite declining pricing.
Operating Expenses:
HLG:
Operating expenses (OPEX) are stable as a percentage of revenue, highlighting efficiency in managing costs during expansion.
Notable investments in store rollouts and marketing are offset by operational efficiencies.
TRA:
OPEX as a percentage of revenue is slightly higher, driven by increases in system maintenance, claims, and depreciation.
TRA maintains strong cost management, but declining margins in Auto Retail require tighter control.
EBITDA:
HLG:
EBITDA grows from NZ$92.8M in FY24 to NZ$119.3M in FY27, with margins increasing from 21.3% to 23.1%.
Glassons AU is the largest contributor, accounting for most of the EBITDA uplift.
TRA:
EBITDA shows a decline in FY25 (NZ$27.3M) due to Auto Retail margin compression but recovers to NZ$31.8M by FY27, with margins stabilizing around 7.4%.
Finance and Insurance segments drive the recovery, while Credit Management remains stable.
Dividend Payouts:
HLG:
Dividend payout is consistently high, with DPS expected to increase from 61.0cps in FY25 to 70.0cps in FY27.
The payout ratio is approximately 85%, supported by strong free cash flows.
TRA:
TRA is a standout dividend grower, with DPS increasing from 27.5cps in FY25 to 34.5cps in FY27, representing a CAGR of 10%.
Fully imputed dividends are backed by steady earnings and disciplined capital management.
Summary:
Metric
HLG
TRA
Revenue Growth (FY24-FY27)
Steady, CAGR 5.8%
Modest, CAGR 6.1%
Gross Margin
~59%
~7.4%
NPAT CAGR
12.6%
11.9%
OPEX Management
Stable, efficient
Slightly pressured
EBITDA Growth (FY24-FY27)
From NZ$92.8M to NZ$119.3M
From NZ$27.3M to NZ$31.8M
Dividend Yield (FY25)
8.5%
5.4%
HLG demonstrates superior margins, consistent profit growth, and higher dividend yields, underpinned by strong retail operations and expansion strategies. TRA shows resilience with diversified income streams and a robust dividend growth track record but faces profitability constraints in its Auto Retail segment.
Balance Sheet Comparison: HLG vs. TRA
Total Assets:
HLG (Hallenstein Glassons):
Total assets grow steadily from NZ$147.9M in FY24 to NZ$176.8M in FY27.
Key contributors include:
Fixed assets increase from NZ$58.8M in FY24 to NZ$70.7M in FY27, driven by store expansions in Australia.
The right-of-use asset (ROU), related to lease accounting, rises from NZ$67.0M in FY24 to NZ$80.7M in FY27, reflecting new leases from store openings.
TRA (Turners Automotive Group):
Total assets expand significantly, from NZ$799.8M in FY24 to NZ$976.4M in FY27.
Notable contributions:
Working capital grows from NZ$414.3M in FY24 to NZ$555.6M in FY27, reflecting higher inventory and receivables tied to auto retail and finance operations.
Fixed assets increase from NZ$113.9M in FY24 to NZ$146.3M in FY27, driven by branch expansions and investments in operational infrastructure.
Current Assets:
HLG:
HLG maintains a lean structure with limited current assets, focusing on optimizing working capital.
Working capital grows modestly from NZ$8.5M in FY24 to NZ$12.8M in FY27, demonstrating efficient inventory and receivable management.
TRA:
TRA's current assets are significantly higher, dominated by inventory and receivables in the Auto Retail and Finance segments.
Working capital sees robust growth from NZ$414.3M in FY24 to NZ$555.6M in FY27, underscoring the capital-intensive nature of TRA's business model.
Intangible Assets:
HLG:
Intangible assets are minimal, reflecting the company's focus on tangible retail operations. Intangibles decrease from NZ$1.0M in FY24 to near zero by FY27.
TRA:
TRA's intangibles remain stable at around NZ$162.5M over FY24–FY27, primarily reflecting goodwill and brand value associated with acquisitions.
Total Liabilities:
HLG:
Total liabilities increase modestly, from NZ$90.6M in FY24 to NZ$98.9M in FY27.
Key components include:
Lease liabilities growing in tandem with ROU assets, from NZ$79.2M in FY24 to NZ$86.7M in FY27.
Other liabilities remain stable at ~NZ$12.2M.
TRA:
Total liabilities increase significantly, from NZ$521.6M in FY24 to NZ$628.1M in FY27.
Key drivers:
Net debt increases from NZ$407.8M in FY24 to NZ$514.8M in FY27, reflecting capital demands for inventory, branch expansion, and financing activities.
Lease liabilities decrease modestly from NZ$24.9M in FY24 to NZ$21.8M in FY27.
Shareholders' Equity:
HLG:
Equity grows from NZ$103.2M in FY24 to NZ$132.6M in FY27, driven by retained earnings and consistent dividend payouts.
TRA:
Equity rises from NZ$278.1M in FY24 to NZ$348.3M in FY27, supported by reinvested profits and growing retained earnings.
Key Ratios:
Metric
HLG
TRA
Total Assets (FY24-FY27)
NZ$147.9M → NZ$176.8M
NZ$799.8M → NZ$976.4M
Current Assets Growth
Modest
Significant (Working capital-heavy)
Fixed Assets Growth
+20% (Store expansion)
+28% (Branch expansion)
Total Liabilities Growth
+9%
+20%
Debt/Equity Ratio (FY27)
0% (net cash)
1.48x (net debt-driven)
Shareholders' Equity (FY27)
NZ$132.6M
NZ$348.3M
Summary:
HLG: Displays a balanced and efficient asset structure with limited reliance on debt. Focused on tangible retail assets and operational efficiency.
TRA: Operates a more asset-heavy model, with higher working capital and intangibles. Growth is funded by significant debt, reflecting its capital-intensive nature.
Topped up with a few more Turners this morning. (Have also lifted my stake in HLG by 50% since the annual meeting two weeks ago).
Turners trade cum a 7 cent fully imputed divvy in January. Backing that out from the share price this morning of $5.29 gives a net price of $5.22
FY26 starts in ~ 3 months
Over the last 5 years eps and dps have grown at a 12 and 15% CAGR.
On Craigs numbers for FY26 @ $5.22 Turners trades on a forward PE of only 11.1 and Gross yield of 8.1% which in my opinion are truly compelling metrics for such an incredibly well managed company.
For what it's worth, I think broker targets for FY26 and FY27 and going to come in for significant upgrades next year.
TRA and HLG, are the gifts you give yourself this Christmas, in my opinion.
SP bouncing up and down to the high's no break out yet...
still pretty good on an economy that is a dead cat not even bouncing...
Trading ex dividend today
Jeepers. I didn't even realise there was another juicy dividend about to hit the accounts
Every time I get a big juicy quarterly dividend, (fully subscribed to the DRIP so its extra shares for me), I just want to give Tina a big hug. Now with the shares over $5 I want to have a group hug with Todd and Aaron as well lol
Quote from: Dolcile on Jan 09, 2025, 10:16 AMJeepers. I didn't even realise there was another juicy dividend about to the accounts
Love a quarterly dividend..... ;D
Although I'm in the DRP also.
Last year they paid a 3rd interim dividend on 27th March 😋
Yes, not quite "hitting the accounts", more hitting the DRP too!
This year's annual meeting could be quite a jovial event. I expect to see lots of happy faces and good vibes as the shares attain a 6 handle.
DRP price $5.26
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/445204
Quote from: Basil on Jan 09, 2025, 04:34 PMThis year's annual meeting could be quite a jovial event. I expect to see lots of happy faces and good vibes as the shares attain a 6 handle.
Hopefully it's live streamed and we can see you have a boogie with Tina after the meeting ;D
Looks like Turners have had a ripper third quarter. They posted a record first half result for the six months to 30 Sept https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/442516/attachment/432694/442516-432694.pdf despite dealer to public sales being very weak, (see dealer to public sales for the months of April to Sept 2024 compared to 2023, top right box), so decent market share gains must have been made in the first half.
Since then, sales have been much stronger, up 11.5% in October, 6% in Nov and 10.7% in December 2024. Additionally, Turners commented in late November at their half year announcement, vehicle margins are recovering. On top of that will be market share gains this third quarter.
Net interest margin on their finance book is set to grow strongly with OCR cuts this year.
https://www.turners.co.nz/globalassets/terms-and-conditions/market-report-cars---December-2024.pdf
Disc: I topped up with more TRA shares this week and am subscribed to the DRIP so will get even more later this month at $5.26
Daughter's car and two others were crashed into while parked by a Merc,where te driver hit the gas pedal rather than the brake.Her Nissan Tiida may be a right off.I therefore thought I better check prices for a replacement car.
2CC Christchurch.2015 Nissan Note,29,974 klms $9,489.plus on road costs.
Turners Christchurch.2013,Nissan Note,53,000 klms.$9,980.
If her car is written off I will have to check out if either company give shareholder's a discount....lol.
Although 2CC's appears the much better buy,both look to be fairly priced.Under $10,000 for a good reliable car.
talking one of these? well...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Eoku2YdfxJQ
fair price since the kiwi is 50 to the dollar... not quite the rubble yet... thank goodness...
Thanks for the link.
What a fantastic car.
Now I hope the daughter's Tiida is written off..lol
Sir B will buy one for going down to the shops with the dog in the back....
Quote from: Waltzing on Jan 19, 2025, 11:56 AMSir B will buy one for going down to the shops with the dog in the back....
Best to find one with an interior that matches the big boy's tan fur colour so you can't see the truck loads of fur he sheds lol. Quite rare to get a classic tan interior these days but I found one this year and Tony and I love it. https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/motors/cars/nissan/x-trail/listing/4831023163 Mrs reckons the ride is a bit firm, but she didn't even get a say in it lol
I could have bought some fancy European car for 3-4 times the price but after talking with Todd, he told me save yourself a ton of drama's and grief as well as truckloads of depreciation and stick to Japanese, so I did what he suggested.
expecting and hoping for big things from this well run scrap metal merchant ...
if the economy is on slow now for ever and it looks like.. steady as it goes companies are the ones to own down under due to extreme world risk rising...
many thanks to those who studied this stock and published thoughts..
Quote from: lorraina on Jan 18, 2025, 03:25 PMDaughter's car and two others were crashed into while parked by a Merc,where te driver hit the gas pedal rather than the brake.Her Nissan Tiida may be a right off.I therefore thought I better check prices for a replacement car.
2CC Christchurch.2015 Nissan Note,29,974 klms $9,489.plus on road costs.
Turners Christchurch.2013,Nissan Note,53,000 klms.$9,980.
If her car is written off I will have to check out if either company give shareholder's a discount....lol.
Although 2CC's appears the much better buy,both look to be fairly priced.Under $10,000 for a good reliable car.
Off topic and FWIW, I tell me kids to stick to N.Z. new vehicles with a well-documented full-service history, preferably with not just stamps in the service book but also service work invoices. That serves two purposes. You know it's been well serviced and at what milage and secondly, it validates the history of the mileage to some extent in that you can track the mileage gradually going up each time its serviced and can get a pretty good idea if the mileage displayed is plausible. With used imports, it's a lottery whether they have been serviced properly, and if the mileage is genuine.
Funny how we still say milage when it records km
Quote from: Basil on Jan 20, 2025, 12:00 PMOff topic and FWIW, I tell me kids to stick to N.Z. new vehicles with a well-documented full-service history, preferably with not just stamps in the service book but also service work invoices. That serves two purposes. You know it's been well serviced and at what milage and secondly, it validates the history of the mileage to some extent in that you can track the mileage gradually going up each time its serviced and can get a pretty good idea if the mileage displayed is plausible. With used imports, it's a lottery whether they have been serviced properly, and if the mileage is genuine.
I agree and have learned this lesson personally (many times). Always NZ new.
Quote from: FatTed on Jan 20, 2025, 10:38 PMFunny how we still say milage when it records km
Off topic and just shooting the breeze but I can see why the English language is so difficult for immigrants to learn. As you suggest, there's so many curious mannerisms we carry through from years gone by. Not just that but there are so many words that sound the same but are spelt so many different ways with different meanings. e.g pour, poor, pore, paw, or hair, here, hare or even heir. How anyone learns the language without growing up with it I'll never know lol
Quote from: Basil on Jan 21, 2025, 04:28 PMHow anyone learns the language without growing up with it I'll never know lol
You only have to read some of the comments on social media to realise that even growing up with the language doesn't work for many people!
back to this flag ship company that reflects the true state of the economy...
not long till the RBNZ sends a message about the year ahead ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iqu132vTl5Y
mean while the KIWI continues to take such a hammering that the prospect of a 50 handle lurks out there...economic hammer slammer..
this stock could actually outperform the lower the kiwi goes...its a SHORT on the KIWI!!!
HLG is a bet on the KANGA...
oil maybe about to plummet as the US unleases its oil and gas reserves.
could this push NZ inflation down? and pump TRA up? Higher margins ?
its looks to be a winner either way...
Quote from: Basil on Jan 21, 2025, 04:28 PMOff topic and just shooting the breeze but I can see why the English language is so difficult for immigrants to learn. As you suggest, there's so many curious mannerisms we carry through from years gone by. Not just that but there are so many words that sound the same but are spelt so many different ways with different meanings. e.g pour, poor, pore, paw, or hair, here, hare or even heir. How anyone learns the language without growing up with it I'll never know lol
If you think English is difficult to learn - have a go at Chinese ;) ;
the state of the economy and the aspirations of its classes can best described by this report...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/toyota-aqua-hatchback-retains-title-for-new-zealands-most-stolen-car-in-2024/T2UEWKHWKZDZBDKIVGQ7FUSPLM/
at least the marketing of this company makes sense ... it understands it target market and how to speak and sometime sing to it... TINA does a fair attempt song and hold her high notes...
more than crown research can do with whales songs to trees... 4 million project.
is there something that business in NZ still understands and government department dont...
and that is why this number 8 wire company works... it keeps to the basics..and it ... WORKS..
Is oil about to crash the market and that is why interest rates may over the next 12 months actually move lower as surprise surprise inflation reverses its stubborn patterns?
well beach it people and take that boat out as bunkering cars, boats and planes by next summer could bring on a indian summer...
TRA 10 dollars by 2030?
Quote from: Basil on Jan 18, 2025, 11:41 AMLooks like Turners have had a ripper third quarter. They posted a record first half result for the six months to 30 Sept https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/442516/attachment/432694/442516-432694.pdf despite dealer to public sales being very weak, (see dealer to public sales for the months of April to Sept 2024 compared to 2023, top right box), so decent market share gains must have been made in the first half.
Since then, sales have been much stronger, up 11.5% in October, 6% in Nov and 10.7% in December 2024. Additionally, Turners commented in late November at their half year announcement, vehicle margins are recovering. On top of that will be market share gains this third quarter.
Net interest margin on their finance book is set to grow strongly with OCR cuts this year.
https://www.turners.co.nz/globalassets/terms-and-conditions/market-report-cars---December-2024.pdf
Disc: I topped up with more TRA shares this week and am subscribed to the DRIP so will get even more later this month at $5.26
I noticed in the consumer price index statistics this week that used car prices were up by 4.7% in the last quarter and were a major contributor to the December quarter inflation number. Bodes very well for a strong full year result. With inflation well under control a 50 bps cut by RBNZ in February looks highly likely now with significant further cuts to come this year to lift the economy out of the doldrums.
That rise in the price of second hand cars is very interesting.
Its causes could tell us a lot about the economy as there surely is not a lack of stock out there.
Talking of stock where have all those V8 holden and Fords gone in the countries inventory...
Havnt seen a Holden on the roads in ages...
Who still owns one?
Did they all get shipped out and to which country? or which disassemble plant...re they cant be crushed already.
and speaking of being crushed ... it appears this market was pulverised..
and people wonder why money is leaving for other higher valued economies...
read it and weep... luck you all have some TRA ... TINA...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/economy/new-zealand-economy-took-developed-worlds-biggest-hit-in-2024-hsbc/7VXRYHUWAVC3ZCYRE6KSYH5YSE/
Quote from: Waltzing on Jan 25, 2025, 07:35 AMTalking of stock where have all those V8 holden and Fords gone in the countries inventory...
Havnt seen a Holden on the roads in ages...
Who still owns one?
Did they all get shipped out and to which country? or which disassemble plant...re they cant be crushed already.
and speaking of being crushed ... it appears this market was pulverised..
and people wonder why money is leaving for other higher valued economies...
read it and weep... luck you all have some TRA ... TINA...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/economy/new-zealand-economy-took-developed-worlds-biggest-hit-in-2024-hsbc/7VXRYHUWAVC3ZCYRE6KSYH5YSE/
No doubt - TRA is a well run and profitable company. But still - what a joke our bourse and economy must be to allow a second hand car dealer to outshine most (or all?) of our primary industries. Clearly - not TRA's fault, but wouldn't we need these brains to run our country and our primary industries instead of a second hand car dealer?
It just that is this exco that isnt going anywhere the best brains have gone ballistic... (rocket off into the while blue yonder) ... while the conservative best of breed know where the bread and butter is ... finance markets for people popular transport ...
in germany this company may save the transport industry...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DABzuWLVPu4
Quote from: Waltzing on Jan 25, 2025, 12:30 PMIt just that is this exco that isnt going anywhere the best brains have gone ballistic... (rocket off into the while blue yonder) ... while the conservative best of breed know where the bread and butter is ... finance markets for people popular transport ...
in germany this company may save the transport industry...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DABzuWLVPu4
Maybe - its really cheap - only 1/3rd of a Leo 2 ($15m vs $42m) - and hey, German industry always produced superior tanks.
Not sure though, tanks will be very useful to win future wars. Too dear and too easy to stop with cheap landmines. My money would be on (as well) cheap AI controlled drones combined with a handful of hypersonic rockets.
Quote from: BlackPeter on Jan 25, 2025, 03:28 PMMaybe - its really cheap - only 1/3rd of a Leo 2 ($15m vs $42m) - and hey, German industry always produced superior tanks.
Not sure though, tanks will be very useful to win future wars. Too dear and too easy to stop with cheap landmines. My money would be on (as well) cheap AI controlled drones combined with a handful of hypersonic rockets.
Actually - just found that: https://hungarytoday.hu/germanys-new-superweapon-to-be-manufactured-in-hungary/#:~:text=It%20is%20also%20noted%20that,of%20a%20new%20Leopard%202.
If its produced in Hungary, than it will equip the Russian army. Hungary is run by another Putin loving tyrant.
Better not tell them that tanks might not be that useful in future ... though, they should know, shouldn't they?
Edit: Apologies to followers of this thread for the last 2 posts. I replied without checking the thread thinking we are on the Geopolitical risks thread.
Shall keep my peace on the TRA thread in future, unless its about TRA.
yes wrong thread... sorry about that comment on tonka toy's ...
If the US ships a lot more gas and oil over the next 3 to 4 years and oil comes down TRA should benefit as it will give people more coin to spend on getting about...
holidays in this country are not by train and planes as per europe but CARS....
miss those Swedish trains... would post a video of the commute in LandsKrona showing off the country side and wind farms...
complete with aussi ascents as they reach out drag your oversized bike bags on board just when you thought you had escaped that awful sound of Kanga's and kIWIS's. You cant escape them in even sweden.....
Tina said I've been a good dog, patted me and gave me another 1375 shares today. That's pretty cool. Onward and upward. 😃
Who here takes the DRP and who take the cash?
I'm split 20% cash, 80% DRP.....I figure I want some cash but I don't want to be diluted either. So long as my DRP % is more than the overall average DRP take-up then I should be good.
At $5.26 the DRP shares are not a bad price vs market of $5.41 and once you factor in no brokerage it could be a lot worse.
I take all shares. I don't have any need for the cash at the moment. If I was retired that might be different.
Hey Ferg. As you may have gathered from my post earlier today, I take all shares. This DRIP price was good but the last one three months ago was only $4.44 so shareholders who took that are just over a $1 a share ahead already based on today's VWAP price of $5.45. Quarterly compounding of dividends through the DRIP program adds a bit of extra grunt, to your long-term growth plans too, even turbocharges it when the share price is accelerating strongly upwards. A forecast upgrade next month wouldn't surprise me in the slightest. Plenty of interest rate cuts to come this year all being good tailwinds for Turners. $6 handle by annual meeting time in August or earlier? What do you reckon mate?
Thanks Basil. Yes the last DRIP was good. I won't make a price prediction given it can bite one on the bum......plus I'm happy with where it is now. Daily SP movements aren't too much of a concern for me given it is a long term hold (unless something fundamentally breaks) but yeah a 6 would be nice at some point, although not so good for buying as something starting with a 4....but that said $6 should be easily achievable.
BTW I totally fluked my last buy. I usually have the reverse Midas touch but my last buy was 15 November which was a week prior to the last SP pop. My better half would like more.......such a hard task master!! :P
I'm retired, take the cash from our investments, and blow much of it on travel.
Three trips organised for this year - 3 weeks in Western Australia, 4 weeks in Bali, and 7 weeks in France, London and Spain.
Thanks mainly to TRA and HLG.
Nice one Pierre. Bon voyage!
Looks like TRA director Alistair Petrie is 100% DRP:
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/445938/attachment/436591/445938-436591.pdf
Quote from: Ferg on Jan 30, 2025, 08:28 AMBTW I totally fluked my last buy. I usually have the reverse Midas touch but my last buy was 15 November which was a week prior to the last SP pop.
Nice one Ferg. Great minds think alike :) I also bought more in the mid $4's in mid-November. Its never enough more with hindsight though is it lol
Like you, I have just settled in for the long haul and am really enjoying the ride. I also feel very relaxed and don't feel any need to fret about the company as I have complete confidence in the management team and their brilliant marketing! I reckon if Tina came along to an annual meeting there would be a long queue of shareholders wanting to give her a hug lol Apparently, she's a real celebrity at her local Church.
Ouch that is ugly guidence from CMO
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/446056/attachment/436706/446056-436706.pdf
Quote from: Dolcile on Jan 31, 2025, 03:46 PMOuch that is ugly guidence from CMO
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/446056/attachment/436706/446056-436706.pdf
Thankfully its entirely irrelevant to how the used car market is going, (I posted very encouraging used car statistics for monthly and year to date sales to December 2024 a while back).
moving back up ....
not the fastest mover on the exchange but still heading in the right direction...
Help Please.
I am thinking [looking] at a car Turners have for sale for the granddaughter.
https://www.turners.co.nz/Cars/Used-Cars-for-Sale/lexus/ct200h/26570546
However I have read you should only get it serviced at a Lexus dealer.
This worries me as I know they charge heaps.
Well Turners have sold that car,however 2CC have one for sale here in ChCh.
https://www.2cheapcars.co.nz/used-vehicles/lexus/ct200h/108688
or perhaps;
https://www.2cheapcars.co.nz/used-vehicles/toyota/corolla/108897
No even remotely able to comment on cars.....
scullng boats yes... and id advise keeping away from modern ones...
maybe cars are the same.
the other day saw an escort sport 1600 in the service bay....
the figure to buy it seemed very very high...
should have kept that cool yellow 2 door lastest shape 1983...
what is the most reliable car on the NZ market second hand?
sure it isnt a lexus?
Hey Lorriana,
Lexus as I am sure you know are the upmarket division of Toyota and any Toyota dealer should be able to give you great service. The great news is Toyota's spare parts and service are amoungst the cheapest in the automotive industry.
The biggest risk with buying a used hybrid of that age is there's a very good chance the hybrid battery is very close to the end of its useful life.
Check with a Toyota dealer what the cost of a replacement hybrid battery is. Stories of $6,000 - $8,000 are not uncommon.
I would be leaning towards a conventional petrol Toyota Corolla. A lot less parts to go wrong for a vehicle of that age. Hope that helps.
Great to see TRA and HLG making fresh all time highs today. Both exceptionally well managed companies trading on compelling metrics and in a strong confirmed uptrend. Let your portfolio winners run and run and run...
Thank you.
there you have it , was wondering on what to check for a gift to discretionary beneficiaries in the trusts...
petrol Toyota Corolla...
put a rack on and good for the beach for any teens...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VZ7RbDRuJEY
There is a Lexus RX400H 2007 with about 200K on the clock sitting outside our place. Just gathering cobwebs
May be able to take it for free, been there for the last 6 months, think we know who the owner is - if so, lives locally, but not in our street, and they have a new Lexus and RAV4.
Wish someone would take it away, has a current WOF and Rego
Turners used car market stat's for January just out. Market rebounding strongly for used cars with dealer to public sales up a strong 12% compared to Jan 2024.
On top of that for Turners will be ongoing strength in market share gains driving the flywheel of increased motor vehicle finance lending and insurance sales
Expecting numerous cuts by the RBNZ this year starting with 50 bps next week driving a substaintial gain in net interest margin in FY26 and beyound.
Factor in branch expansion and their new iniative with motor vehicle servicing and Turners shareholders are set to enjoy exciting times in the years ahead. Looking forward to another big juicy quarterly dividend in April.
That's a big increase in sales eh ...and boosted by share gains
Auto Retail dvision out of doldrums
Going to be a great H2 feeding into a better than expected full year
Profit upgrade this week methinks ..maybe tomorrow
That'll get share price moving
Todd rather modestly said at half year 'The company is on track for a record result for FY25, expected to exceed its $50m NPBT target.'
Jeez, only exceeding $50m ....... Disclosure protocols now in play ....... Might need to come out confess it's really $55m to $60m
Margins recovering nicely too according to Todd in November.
Noticed in Dec inflation stat's announced late last month, used car prices up a very strong 4.7% that quarter.
Yeap, all those extra sales, at much better margins and better NIM on lending, exceeding $50m looks to be extremely conservative guidance.
Exceeding $55m would not surprise me in the slightest as upgraded guidance at some stage quite soon.
This was published in Autofile on 11 February.
"The number of dealers on the Motor Vehicle Traders Register (MVTR) fell by 21 last month, with the total at the end of January standing at 2,789.
It marks four consecutive months of decline since the tally reached 2,880 in September last year.
The figure is the lowest since April 2013 when there were 2,773 registered traders nationwide.
Last month's total is also 121 below the 2,910 recorded at the end of January 2024.
Dealer numbers have largely been in decline since hitting a high of 3,535 in November 2017."
TRA must be decimating the numbers... you cant best TINA....
Quote from: Basil on Feb 12, 2025, 03:51 PMTurners used car market stat's for January just out.
...
Hi beagle, must be my recent lack of sleep - but I can't find anything on the NZX nor on Turners website.
Do you have a link?
Quote from: BlackPeter on Feb 13, 2025, 08:50 AMHi beagle, must be my recent lack of sleep - but I can't find anything on the NZX nor on Turners website.
Do you have a link
Sorry mate, on holiday and all I have is my phone.and I don't know how to cut and paste links using my phone. Back in the office late next week. Flick me a reminder then and I will post a link.
If you're looking for a home for the capital released from your HLG shares sold, for what its worth, I can't think of a better one. (Not suggesting this is better, they are both exceptionally well managed growth companies, trading on compelling metrics in my opinion and I remain very happy indeed to have a large, approx 17%, portfolio allocation to each one).
Quote from: BlackPeter on Feb 13, 2025, 08:50 AMHi beagle, must be my recent lack of sleep - but I can't find anything on the NZX nor on Turners website.
Do you have a link?
They said it by email ,,,here's how to get it
If you have any queries about the information in this presentation or wish to add someone to the distribution list, please contact Asgar Kachwalla, Key Accounts Asgar.Kachwalla@turners.co.nz
Lots of other data in report.mSend him an email right now ....they very prompt
Quote from: Basil on Feb 13, 2025, 09:07 AMSorry mate, on holiday and all I have is my phone.and I don't know how to cut and paste links using my phone. Back in the office late next week. Flick me a reminder then and I will post a link.
...
Hi basil, cheers - just following winners hint, i.e. I suppose I will be fine.
Quote from: Basil on Feb 13, 2025, 09:07 AMIf you're looking for a home for the capital released from your HLG shares sold, for what its worth, I can't think of a better one. (Not suggesting this is better, they are both exceptionally well managed growth companies, trading on compelling metrics in my opinion and I remain very happy indeed to have a large, approx 17%, portfolio allocation to each one).
Absolutely - TRA is part of the "essentials" portfolio I am currently growing. Come rain, sun shine, Putin, Xi or Dump - people always will need transport ... and unless we go back in time like the Russians do (who apparently employ now asses and mules at the front due to lack of operational vehicles (info courtesy to Waltzing's posts), we always will need cars, and no doubt - TRA is clearly the current star in this market.
Having said that - there are as well some other stocks in this portfolio ... like e.g. SKL and some agricultural companies :) ;
Risk is going through the roof...
there is nothing but gold and land that will hedge whats coming...
although this company might buy a real scrap metal merchant... not a lot of scrap in this country..
this company is the next best thing...
retail stats out for jan.. down 1.6%
Quote from: Waltzing on Feb 12, 2025, 07:08 PMTRA must be decimating the numbers... you cant best TINA.
Best marketing program in 50 years.
Makes it really tough for their competitors. Second hand dealer to public sales up 12% in January, (after several strong months before that), but Turners probably up 20%+
50 bps interest rate cut on Wednesday a certainty with more to come.
This year will certainly mark the fifth record result in a row, despite all the covid and economic challenges. No reason I can foresee why they won't continue making further record results in the years ahead with commensurate record dividends.
Quote from: winner (n) on Feb 12, 2025, 04:35 PMTodd rather modestly said at half year 'The company is on track for a record result for FY25, expected to exceed its $50m NPBT target.'
Jeez, only exceeding $50m ....... Disclosure protocols now in play ....... Might need to come out confess it's really $55m to $60m
And here it is
With modesty says greater than $53m
But we know it's going to be $55m to $60m don't we
https://announcements.nzx.com/attachment/437671.pdf
Target $65m npbt by F28
C'mon Todd that's only 6%/7% pa growth .....Basil would say below average
Today.
Upgrade from Turners.
Downgrade from Heartland.
Interestingly both driven by their vehicle financing.
One wonders how a second hand car dealer can succeed in this sector while a bank can not.?
I guess the difference is directors/management.
Probably been covered previously - but any reason behind all the NPBT reporting? Doesn't seem anything wrong with it but it's the only company I can think of who does it.
Quote from: Gerald on Feb 18, 2025, 09:04 AMProbably been covered previously - but any reason behind all the NPBT reporting? Doesn't seem anything wrong with it but it's the only company I can think of who does it.
I'd say it is because that is what they can control. In recent years there has been some tax law changes (depreciation on buildings for example) that have swung tax expense up and down.
Quote from: lorraina on Feb 18, 2025, 08:56 AMToday.
Upgrade from Turners.
Downgrade from Heartland.
Interestingly both driven by their vehicle financing.
One wonders how a second hand car dealer can succeed in this sector while a bank can not.?
I guess the difference is directors/management.
Well, yes - it looks like both TRA and HGH expect another earnings extreme this year. With TRA it will be another All Time High, and with HGH it looks like another All Time Low. Complementing each other?
I guess most managers shine from time to time, but only some managers shine most of the time ... though, TRA (and its predecessors) used to have in the past its fair share of bad times as well, didn't they?
Yes I well remember the haters attacking me when I was keen on TRA on Sharetrader a number of years ago.
Funny how the biggest hater has turned into the biggest lover of TRA here...lol.
pretty happy to pick up another parcel (only partially filled) at the opening bell. Hard to believe there were some available at $5.65 early doors
Quote from: winner (n) on Feb 18, 2025, 08:35 AMAnd here it is
With modesty says greater than $53m
But we know it's going to be $55m to $60m don't we
https://announcements.nzx.com/attachment/437671.pdf
Yeap, we both predicted this quite recently and I agree they are still being very conservative. I think $65m by FY27, a year early, is highly likely.
To be fair Lorriana, the Tina campaign has been completly transformative for Turners and I picked the brilliance of that very early after it started. You are allowed to change your mind mate when a company transforms itself.
Dolcile, I was out of cellphone coverage range south of National Park at market open so you got lucky.
6 soon.. going on 7...
It needs a bit more liquidity to get the fund managers interested IMO
Quote from: lorraina on Feb 18, 2025, 10:01 AMYes I well remember the haters attacking me when I was keen on TRA on Sharetrader a number of years ago.
Funny how the biggest hater has turned into the biggest lover of TRA here...lol.
Wasn't this the time where the TRA share price dropped from something slightly below $3 to something slightly above $1?
So - clearly TRA was unloved not just by some posters, but by Mr. Market, and holding the share during this time was not necessarily a profitable decision.
Do you call it "hate" if people convey this message?
But hey - market clearly changed its views since then ... and all up from here (until the trend change in the end, but I think there is still some time to go).
No worries, we are all good in identifying undervalued stocks, its just that our timing is not always perfect. And hey, I know how painful it can be if people disagree with ones views - and the market supports them. Been there, done that. But are these really "haters", or just people with a different view? These things happen.
Sorry - I know we live in extreme times, so - maybe we should try to soften our language ...
Thanks BP, many, many years ago I was calling the company what it was back then. The most brilliant multi award winning marketing campaign that is Tina, really has been completly transformative for Turners. Turners has been my biggest position for quite some time. HLG position is right up there with it now and I expect a verp positive half year update from them very soon.
Tina is the icing on the cake.
First the right ingredients went into making the cake.
the market had a zeitenwende....
Great to see Turners on a new all-time high. I continue to believe the upgraded guidance of more than $53m is very conservative. I think Winner is on to it, somewhere between $55m and $60m. They might even make their FY28 goal of $65m in FY26, two years early.
wow... its unbelievable...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sfCLt0kTd5E
6 bucks incoming
Quote from: Dolcile on Feb 19, 2025, 10:12 AM6 bucks incoming
I think the business is tracking so well they're a year ahead of plan, at least.
Forbar's late Nov 2024 research has their FY26 forecast at $57m NPBT, they should go close to that in FY25 in my opinion.
For Bars review
Turners Automotive (TRA) has upgraded its FY25 net profit before tax (NPBT) guidance by +6%, reflecting a recovery in vehicle margins (consistent with the directional trend in pricing data from our sales tracker) and tailwinds from falling interest rates. The FY25 result will be TRA's fifth record result in a row. TRA's PE multiple has expanded by ~+20% over the last six months and it now trades at a premium to its long-run average. We see this as justified given TRA's growing track record of execution, improved margins and returns, enhanced brand strength, and reduced risk profile. TRA is a well-managed structural growth story (an +10.2% EPS CAGR from FY25 to FY28), offering a cash yield of ~5.2%. We continue to view the risk/reward as positive and retain our OUTPERFORM rating with a higher target price of NZ$6.95.
What's changed?
Earnings: NPBT rises +5%/+7%/+6% over FY25/FY26/FY27, primarily on higher vehicle sale prices and margins
Target price: Our target price increases +19% to NZ$6.95 (representing 14.3x 12-month forward PE) on earnings upgrades and the incorporation of a modest premium to peer multiples (which have themselves lifted) given continued solid execution.
Guidance upgraded on higher vehicle margins and interest rate tailwinds
TRA upgraded its NPBT guidance for FY25 to 'at least NZ$53m', up +6% from prior guidance of greater than NZ$50m and +3% ahead of our prior estimate of NZ$51.6m. The improved outlook has been driven by: (1) a recovery in vehicle margins in Auto Retail, and (2) lower interest rates, which are supporting profitability in TRA's Finance division. A declining trend in vehicle prices led to significant margin compression in Auto Retail during 1H25 and an -18% decline in segment profits. Data from our sales tracker suggests vehicle prices have trended upwards in 2H25, consistent with TRA's commentary around margin recovery.
All businesses expected to show growth in 2H25, on track for NZ$65m NPBT target
TRA expects all four of its business divisions to report NPBT ahead of 2H24 in 2H25, consistent with our expectations. The diversified nature of TRA's businesses has been a key component of its strong performance through a challenging economic period over the last three to five years. As the cycle turns, TRA remains focussed on achieving its FY28 NPBT target of >NZ$65m. We think the market should be treating this target as conservative, and we expect this goal to be reached in FY27. Our FY28 PBT estimate is NZ$72.5m.
Valuation still undemanding despite rerate
Multiple expansion has been the key driver of TRA's share price outperformance over the last six months (+26% versus the NZX50). That said, TRA still trades at just 12.2x 12-month forward EPS, representing a ~30% discount to the NZ market median. We see this as undemanding for a structural growth story that is leveraged to a potential domestic economic recovery.
Earnings revisions
We increase our NPBT estimates mid-to-high single digits across FY25 to FY28, driven by higher vehicle prices and stronger margins in Auto Retail. We now expect TRA to hit its FY28 NPBT target of >NZ$65m one year early, in FY27.
Quote from: Greekwatchdog on Feb 19, 2025, 10:59 AMValuation still undemanding despite rerate
Multiple expansion has been the key driver of TRA's share price outperformance over the last six months (+26% versus the NZX50). That said, TRA still trades at just 12.2x 12-month forward EPS, representing a ~30% discount to the NZ market median. We see this as undemanding for a structural growth story that is leveraged to a potential domestic economic recovery.
Agree 100%. NZX's cheapest growth story. $7 easily achievable within 12 months just based on eps growth.
I genuinely believe that the way the business has been managed so well and their extraordinary track record of dividend growth and 5 years of record profits in a row with all the well-known challenges of Covid and the deepest and most protracted recession in the economy since the GFC, Turners have well and truly earned the right to have a market median multiple and accordingly I'd rate the chances of multiple expansion as being very good..
$75m by FY28 giving eps 60 cps and a market multiple of 17 times = $10 on the cards by FY28 in my opinion. Maybe $10 in due course just a pipe-dream ? Time will tell but it wouldn't surprise me. Great yield of circa 7% gross, growing each year, while we wait and see.
Bought a few more today at the close. Current price very attractive in my opinion.
when seasoned investors who already have good solid positions continue to buy this stock and its current performance one is reminded what long term thinking really is....
with things starting to move in the direction of some return to world economic markets functioning almost normally bar a few trade wars...the odd invasion here and there and the wealthy now able to buy there way into countries... Gold Investor Cards.. NZ could have the Gold Kiwi Card..
could the 2026-27 years offer a glimmer of hope before something else comes along to ruin a get the party started year...
yup its a T stock for sure...its almost a Treasury stock ....
New Registrations of Tesla down 50 percent in Europe already wonder how that car is doing here now...
Quote from: Waltzing on Feb 26, 2025, 07:07 PMwhen seasoned investors who already have good solid positions continue to buy this stock and its current performance one is reminded what long term thinking really is....
with things starting to move in the direction of some return to world economic markets functioning almost normally bar a few trade wars...the odd invasion here and there and the wealthy now able to buy there way into countries... Gold Investor Cards.. NZ could have the Gold Kiwi Card..
could the 2026-27 years offer a glimmer of hope before something else comes along to ruin a get the party started year...
yup its a T stock for sure...its almost a Treasury stock ....
New Registrations of Tesla down 50 percent in Europe already wonder how that car is doing here now...
Just 50% down? Incredible there are still so many Tesla buyers around ... but hey, the alt right probably just looking after their own. 2nd largest party in the recent German elections.
Quote from: Waltzing on Feb 26, 2025, 07:07 PMyup its a T stock for sure...its almost a Treasury stock ....
As eluded too in several recent posts, the last 5 years with all the extraordinary challenges of Covid, the deepest recession by some economists reckoning in more than 30 years and the most rapid increase in interests' rates by the RBNZ ever, has truly been a litmus test for the resilience of N.Z. businesses.
TRA have have passed all of these rigorous tests with flying colours. I therefore have complete confidence in their dividends and while they're obviously not as safe as Govt bonds, I would say they are one of very the safest high yield bearing shares on the NZX and all the more attractive for the way they've grown so convincingly over the last decade. So yeah, in a nutshell, I absolutely do look on TRA as a safe haven yield stock. I don't need the dividends at this stage so I reinvest them through the DRIP program but in the years ahead, getting the dividends quarterly will be a cornerstone foundation block of enjoying a very comfortable retirement.
4th March 2024 - TRA 3rd Q divided declared :)
More market share for TRA. This from Autofile:
"The number of dealers on the Motor Vehicle Traders Register (MVTR) has fallen for the fifth consecutive month and stood at 2,765 at the end of February.
The tally is 24 fewer than the 2,789 recorded at the end of January and extends a decline that started after the total reached 2,880 in September last year.
Last month's figure – the lowest it has been in 12 years – is also 158 down from the 2,923 traders on the register at the end of February 2024.
Dealer numbers have largely been falling since hitting a high of 3,535 in November 2017.
The ONE STOP SHOP....
how do you compete against this monopoly or fast becoming one ...scaling up...
some telsa bargains coming soon.... but who wants all the techno junk going wrong....
Elons brain is muss and so probably is the car...and is that why the rockets keep blowing up....
Todd warned me of the horrific depreciation with EV's.
Quote from: Waltzing on Mar 09, 2025, 03:29 PMThe ONE STOP SHOP....
how do you compete against this monopoly or fast becoming one ...scaling up...
some telsa bargains coming soon.... but who wants all the techno junk going wrong....
Elons brain is muss and so probably is the car...and is that why the rockets keep blowing up....
What a load of drivel.
yes the EVIL T will be under huge competition from the Team China....
TRA is a ONE STOP SHOP.... no doubt about it and hopefully they have a handle on their ledgers...
As SIR B has stated lowering interest rates good for the finance division...
Off topic:
Musk is in serious need of Sigmund Freud....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQaqXK7z9LM
apparently someone Molotov cocktailed his shop...
off topic:
my doctor of the mind encourages the flamboyant use of language... it justs more fun...
Quote from: Basil on Mar 09, 2025, 07:01 PMTodd warned me of the horrific depreciation with EV's.
... and that's even without Musk's support to devalue them :) ;
Quote from: BlackPeter on Mar 10, 2025, 08:18 AM... and that's even without Musk's support to devalue them :) ;
LOL Very true !
Todd told me they are the go-to place that Tesla sends its clients too for disposing of their old model car so he has good market intelligence of that they're really selling for, much as they have with most makes and models of cars out there.
Suppose Todd, Grant et al are in Melbourne at moment cheering on their protege
Go fast Liam, you were pretty good in a crappy car so show them how good you are in a decent car. But dont best Max for goodness sake
It could be a fun ho season.
Max,Liam,Lewis,Charles,Lando and Oscar have history of not giving way to any one,least of all their team mate.!!!
Further back George is not know for giving way,and new wild team mate Kimi should be good for taking a few out.
Fernando will not put up with fun and games from anyone,while Esteban has never listened to team orders.
I am expecting fireworks.
Hopefully TRA has stopped sponsoring him now that he's paid a King's ransom to be part of the big league. I never understood the payback but never mind, Turners Directors and management seem to have a bloody good handle on how to drive the company forward to be consistently on the podium for one of the very best performing companies.
That would depend how much Liam has to pay his sponsors to get out of his contract with them
should flatten on the top here for a while....we will put the next lot of reports through anthropic..
I was just updating my spreadsheet for Turners and noticed that if they hit the FY guidance of at least $53m PBT, that means the FY25 H2 will be a profit of at least $26.1m. That would be 11% higher than that FY24 H2 profit of $23.5m. Quite remarkable in the current environment.
Quote from: Dolcile on Mar 23, 2025, 03:19 PMI was just updating my spreadsheet for Turners and noticed that if they hit the FY guidance of at least $53m PBT, that means the FY25 H2 will be a profit of at least $26.1m. That would be 11% higher than that FY24 H2 profit of $23.5m. Quite remarkable in the current environment.
You onto to it dolcite
Exciting eh
Could even be another profit upgrade in April now financial year almost over and they'll know how more than $53m it s going to be
Quote from: winner (n) on Mar 23, 2025, 04:52 PMExciting eh
Could even be another profit upgrade in April now financial year almost over and they'll know how more than $53m it s going to be
Just like the Glebes eh?
Up the Glebes!
Quote from: Dolcile on Mar 23, 2025, 03:19 PMI was just updating my spreadsheet for Turners and noticed that if they hit the FY guidance of at least $53m PBT, that means the FY25 H2 will be a profit of at least $26.1m. That would be 11% higher than that FY24 H2 profit of $23.5m. Quite remarkable in the current environment.
If they announce $56m 2H profit will be 23.8% more than the previous comparable period....and we have interest rate cuts to come on 9 April and 28 May when the RBNZ meets. I think they can easily do $60m NPBT in FY26 which works out to eps of 50.5 cps after tax. Looking forward (FY26 starts in 9 days time) That puts Turners on a forward FY26 PE of just 11.6 and it trades cum a 7 cent fully imputed quarterly dividend due next month.
5 years ago to the day, today, markets around the world melted down in a frenzy of fear as the worst of Covid fears fueled precipitous selling. Very, very few companies have weathered the fiercest of economic storms that ensued and the deepest recession in 30 years and come out smelling like Roses. Turners is one of them and there aren't many. Anyway, enough said from me Actions speak louder than words, this is my #1 investment position.
Totally agree Basil. What PE do you think is fair, 15x?
7.5 div then ... on wards to 8
Quote from: Dolcile on Mar 23, 2025, 08:33 PMTotally agree Basil. What PE do you think is fair, 15x?
Good question. Typically, I see the analysts comparing them with other motor vehicle industry players many of whom sell new vehicles and are far more cyclical. Comparisons to other retailers can also be misleading in that purchases of a typical motor vehicle that TRA sell, (basic transport in the $10-20K category) is a needs based purchase rather than by way of comparison, for example a new Ford Ranger from Colonial Motors which will be more cyclical depending on the state of the farming industry.
Also a big part of their business is finance and of course insurance. The way they've been able to grow eps at 7% over the last 5 years given all the challenges that period threw at them is deeply impressive and with branch expansion , expansion into vehicle servicing which could be big, growth in market share through their award winning marketing, their in depth market intelligence and many other factors I see no reason why eps growth of 7% per annum or thereabouts is not sustainable for the foreseeable future.
Taking everything into account I think a forward PE somewhere in the mid-teens, 15-16 feels right to me.
Quote from: Basil on Mar 24, 2025, 11:36 AMGood question. Typically, I see the analysts comparing them with other motor vehicle industry players many of whom sell new vehicles and are far more cyclical. Comparisons to other retailers can also be misleading in that purchases of a typical motor vehicle that TRA sell, (basic transport in the $10-20K category) is a needs based purchase rather than by way of comparison, for example a new Ford Ranger from Colonial Motors which will be more cyclical depending on the state of the farming industry.
Also a big part of their business is finance and of course insurance. The way they've been able to grow eps at 7% over the last 5 years given all the challenges that period threw at them is deeply impressive and with branch expansion , expansion into vehicle servicing which could be big, growth in market share through their award winning marketing, their in depth market intelligence and many other factors I see no reason why eps growth of 7% per annum or thereabouts is not sustainable for the foreseeable future.
Taking everything into account I think a forward PE somewhere in the mid-teens, 15-16 feels right to me.
So $750 on cards after full year results
Quote from: winner (n) on Mar 24, 2025, 12:29 PMSo $750 on cards after full year results
A market capitalisation of $67b would be more than the markets cap's of FPH, MEL, AIA, IFT & MCY added together. :o
Big call.
Quote from: winner (n) on Mar 24, 2025, 12:29 PMSo $750 on cards after full year results
Maybe missing a decimal point?
LOL I am sure Winner meant to say $7.50. That would seem to be a reasonable target price to me 12 months hence.
Quote from: Pierre on Mar 24, 2025, 04:43 PMMaybe missing a decimal point?
You never can tell with winner. Constantly posting things that are irrelevant so it's hard to know what is real... :)
Quote from: Basil on Mar 24, 2025, 05:04 PMLOL I am sure Winner meant to say $7.50. That would seem to be a reasonable target price to me 12 months hence.
I prefer $750! 8)
With all this fan talk there is only one thing for it.....Up the Glebes!
Quote from: Ferg on Mar 24, 2025, 05:19 PMI prefer $750! 8)
When it gets to $750 I'll shout you a brand new Rolls Royce, I'll be able to comfortably afford 100 of them lol
yes... oh it was a typo.. 7.50
oh well thats pretty good when you look at the rest of the market as it looks like doom and gloom...
still end of the 1 QTR... cant get any worse right??
hows the dairy milk white gold trade going then...
I find it staggering that KMD is valued at $265m (roughly 50% of Turners) and is loosing money hand-over-fist.
Quote from: Dolcile on Mar 26, 2025, 10:10 AMI find it staggering that KMD is valued at $265m (roughly 50% of Turners) and is loosing money hand-over-fist.
Hmm - while TRA is curently clearly a more successful company, not quite sure whether it is meaningfull to compare the marketcap of a (well run) local used car dealership and some worldwide operating outdoor manufacturer who still is suffering from Covid Woes.
But if you look into the potential -
IF KMD starts doing the right things (not saying, they do), than chances for the KMD share to double from here are certainly higher than the chances for a TRA share to double if they keep doing the right thing. Just the normal game of risk and reward.
Having said that - I just did sit through the KMD result preso ... and not sure, I really want to hold their candle.
Agree BP. I'd also contend, that the changes of KMD going out of business are significantly higher than the chances of Turners doing the same.
Quote from: Dolcile on Mar 26, 2025, 12:54 PMAgree BP. I'd also contend, that the changes of KMD going out of business are significantly higher than the chances of Turners doing the same.
Absolutely - will depend on whether their hopefullness for the future or the challenging trading environment prevails. But maybe we should move this discussion to the KMD thread :) ;
Quite versatile is our Tina. Watched her on Guy Montgomery's Spelling Bee program this week.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertainment/bubbah-tina-from-turners-and-taskmaster-tattoos-are-just-the-beginning/EDYEKZQENBDKTAE6BFWVRR2BZI/
Nice work Turners. This quarter's dividend is 7cps - up from 6cps last year. Payable on 29 April.
Quote from: Pierre on Apr 02, 2025, 09:19 AMNice work Turners. This quarter's dividend is 7cps - up from 6cps last year. Payable on 29 April.
That's a 16.7% pay rise!!!
Quote from: winner (n) on Apr 02, 2025, 09:30 AMThat's a 16.7% pay rise!!!
Turners is the only company on the NZX that I know of, that has a 10-year history of growing dividends at a pace considerably faster than inflation. Makes it an ideal stock for retirees depending on reliable quarterly income that grows strongly over time.
liberation day or something... but this stock will be having nothing of it....
exports maybe not so much but lets wait and see...
8 cents next year?
Correct me if I'm wrong but it's looking like 7.5% gross at $6.
Quote from: Waltzing on Apr 02, 2025, 02:09 PM8 cents next year?
Maybe, I'm forecasting eps of 50.5 cps in FY26 and based on the mid point of 65% divvy payout that's nearly 33 cps so they're certainly capable of paying 4 x 8 cps. If 33 cps fully imputed was to be paid, that's 33 / 0.72 = 45.83 cps gross and on a share price of $5.87 (when I last looed an hour or so ago that's 7.8% gross yield which is a very solid yield considering its prospects for ongoing growth in the future.
with china rolling out killer EV's ... sorry about that... they dont need as much oil...
deflation coming out of china as exports to the US drop and EV usages goes up..
NZ could experience some lower inflation perhaps..
this time next year that DIV percentage will be for a stock that growing its DIV...
rare in this market?
Probably my favourite company on the NZX - go Turners!
Here's one many of you won't have seen before. https://www.youtube.com/shorts/SR2Xm_PS_kE
tink she better go to dance lessons.. talent...
some basic hip hop maybe...
think she could do a childrens program... talent...
10 percent as NZ GST is included as a TF...
Notice how NZ taxes it citizens.... you all just getting totally .. by the NZ GOVTS....
Lucky this stock does not get hit.. who ever made this there biggest holdings is ... well
very well positioned...
COMP Props will face head winds as less stuff to store before shipping out... if trade takes a HIT..
notice TRUMP called canada... Please talk to me!!! sorry whos calling?
TRA ...TINA.... better than gold.
krama is calling it a market crash and tinks its the worst policy of TF's ever...
hes basically saying its all stupidity....
Defensive stocks like these may be the only hope left ...
Quote from: Waltzing on Apr 07, 2025, 07:00 AMkrama is calling it a market crash and tinks its the worst policy of TF's ever...
hes basically saying its all stupidity...
So we do the opposite of what Kramer says?
How is TRA affected by Don madness?
Not at all is how I see it and its been extremely resilient since the start of Covid. Weathered all sorts of economic and pandemic drama's and I am sure if will weather this and come out absolutely fine too.
the K show its not called MAD for nothing...
Bill Akeman saying its going to be a Nuclear winter....
Will TINA be Nuclear Proof...?
One Comp Prop stock hasnt moved at all today....
Petrol prices in the BOP coming down... go on take another later summer holiday.
lovely end to summer... April looking sunny this coming weekend in the BOP.... nice weather for a drive... beachs were packed at the weekend...
take the weather with you...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ag8XcMG1EX4
Could the KIWI dollar move up in the next 12 months has the DIXIE sells off...
well that for another thread...
https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/1298651-more-than-50-countries-want-to-start-trade-talks-with-us-after-tariffs-say-trump-officials#:~:text=More%20than%2050%20nations%20have%20reached%20out%20to,US%20stocks%20last%20week%20and%20downplayed%20economic%20fallout.
People need cheap used cars. It's a need TRA are serving not a want. On the other hand, the chances of the new car dealers, (especially high-end luxury vehicle dealers) getting affected by this is probably pretty good depending on how long this nonsense goes on for.
I bought the granddaughter a cheap Toyota from Doug Drake Motors a couple of years ago,just over $4,000..Doug been in business for over 40 years selling good cheap cars.Loves selling cars.
Trouble was a few months ago it was stolen.She had her heart set on a Subaru.More than the insurance company pay out and more than I wanted to pay,however she found what she wanted at 2CC Blenheim Road site.A hybrid.2015 with 57,000km and under $15,000.Drives like new.Light on gas too.Lovely car.Result one happy granddaughter.
She did suspect something was up as I kept sending her links to cars 2CC [and TRA] had for sale...lol
Quote from: lorraina on Apr 07, 2025, 05:16 PMI bought the granddaughter a cheap Toyota from Doug Drake Motors a couple of years ago,just over $4,000..Doug been in business for over 40 years selling good cheap cars.Loves selling cars.
Trouble was a few months ago it was stolen.She had her heart set on a Subaru.More than the insurance company pay out and more than I wanted to pay,however she found what she wanted at 2CC Blenheim Road site.A hybrid.2015 with 57,000km and under $15,000.Drives like new.Light on gas too.Lovely car.Result one happy granddaughter.
She did suspect something was up as I kept sending her links to cars 2CC [and TRA] had for sale...lol
Best Grandfather ever ! Percy I hope there aren't too many grandchildren for your bank balances sake . I bet she's driving a better car than you !
The doyen of NZ business commentators in Jenny Ruth has just posted a rave about Turners. Could a few punters interested
"Turners Automotive: a safe harbour in turbulent times" is the heading
Subscription only
Good stuff. Jenny has finally woken up to what I have been talking about for quite some time now.
I think she must be a deep sleeper.lol.
oh oil just got even cheaper... late summer ... driving season..
this stock is DUMPLITUS resistant...
Investors arnt you excited...go on ..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yz6hTuK9yBo
Very strong dealer to public car sales in March, up 12.9% year on year. Additional to that for Turners is market share gains by Tina. https://www.turners.co.nz/globalassets/terms-and-conditions/market-report-cars---March-2025.pdf
Quote from: Basil on Apr 12, 2025, 08:08 PMVery strong dealer to public car sales in March, up 12.9% year on year. Additional to that for Turners is market share gains by Tina. https://www.turners.co.nz/globalassets/terms-and-conditions/market-report-cars---March-2025.pdf
Probably need to do another profit upgrade ...like now over own up to how much npbt exceeds $50m
Quote from: winner (n) on Apr 13, 2025, 10:22 AMProbably need to do another profit upgrade ...like now over own up to how much npbt exceeds $50m
They're pretty conservative mate and do what they say they will. Nothing much wrong with leaving guidance at over $53m+ and then having a positive surprise next month.
Quote from: Basil on Apr 12, 2025, 08:08 PMVery strong dealer to public car sales in March, up 12.9% year on year. Additional to that for Turners is market share gains by Tina. https://www.turners.co.nz/globalassets/terms-and-conditions/market-report-cars---March-2025.pdf
Wow that looks overwhelming positive for Turners.
Quote from: Basil on Apr 13, 2025, 10:49 AMThey're pretty conservative mate and do what they say they will. Nothing much wrong with leaving guidance at over $53m+ and then having a positive surprise next month.
I vlew over ze brand zpanking new Turners zite on Moorehouse Avenue een Christchurch today Basil. Right in ze heart of carland! Looks rather zmaller zhan ze old site on ze bottom corner of Hagley Park though. Paint and zignage eez on ze building and ze ram raid bollards are een. Must be due to open zoon. Have you been invited to ze opening?
RB
Durch Ben Sturm....Nicht das Geschäft Aktienkurs Ebene...
storms coming...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cnZvPQ6Swgs
Quote from: Red Baron on Apr 13, 2025, 09:26 PMI vlew over ze brand zpanking new Turners zite on Moorehouse Avenue een Christchurch today Basil. Right in ze heart of carland! Looks rather zmaller zhan ze old site on ze bottom corner of Hagley Park though. Paint and zignage eez on ze building and ze ram raid bollards are een. Must be due to open zoon. Have you been invited to ze opening?
RB
I'm expecting Tina to hand deliver my invite any day now. :)
Quote from: Red Baron on Apr 13, 2025, 09:26 PMI vlew over ze brand zpanking new Turners zite on Moorehouse Avenue een Christchurch today Basil. Right in ze heart of carland! Looks rather zmaller zhan ze old site on ze bottom corner of Hagley Park though. Paint and zignage eez on ze building and ze ram raid bollards are een. Must be due to open zoon. Have you been invited to ze opening?
RB
It is. I assume however you realise that they plan to open three new sites in Christchurch? I suppose the sum of them will be lager then their old site which is difficult to access and had a landlord hard to deal with.
https://www.turners.co.nz/Company/Branches/hornby-cars/
Win-win.
We know Turners' new site in Moorhouse Ave in ChCh is well placed.Right in the centre of things.A good size site with the usual excellent Turners signage.About the size of two car yards. Due to open soon.
Hornby ChCh site is open.Another stand out site.A very large site,all set up for auctions as well as having a great number of cars for sale.Plenty of customer parking.Usual stand out Turners signage.I would call it a "super site."
Wairakei Road.According to Michael at Hornby this will be about the same size as Hornby.
All three sites are really well sited.I know Turners do well out of their old site,however these three sites should supercharge Turners presence in ChCh.
As an aside..CDI [CDL Investments] bought their Cashmere development from Turner's Oxford Finance,and I think Turners will be renting Wairakei Road site from CDI.
Update.Turners own this fantastic site.
this post is off topic but related to cars.... and investors with AUS portfolios...
It appears that china needs resources and it will do anything to get them for EV's
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SNag4j0nmKU
Divvy day for Turners today, yeah. Very pleased to be receiving more shares in lieu of divvy and enjoying compounding quarterly growth with my investment in this extremely well managed company. I prefer to invest in proven growth companies on extremely attractive metrics. This is a classic GARP, (growth at a reasonable price) stock, arguably the best example of a GARP stock on the NZX. Looking forward to next month's annual result and the growth in earnings and dividends in the years to come. Forward FY26 PE based on my estimate of eps of 50 cps is only 11.6 !
Quote from: Waltzing on Apr 27, 2025, 10:16 PMthis post is off topic but related to cars.... and investors with AUS portfolios...
It appears that china needs resources and it will do anything to get them for EV's
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SNag4j0nmKU
Wow what a shocker. That documentary should be put on TVNZ to show all the EV drivers how wrong they are in trying to save the planet. Someone should also let the Greens know there is nothing wrong with a farting cow compared to the thousands of tons of crap that these Chinese monster factories are pumping out, not to mention the 8 to 10 people getting horrifically injured every day and many dying. Shame on those Indonesian and Chinese governments.
off topic again... sorry..
now if you can find one of these on the auction floor the NZDF should consider these for areas to defend like the re woods in roto vagas....and the south island....
great value for money... none left though they look to be all sold out..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqUPeTojJfY
and if your worried about cow pollution dont tell GP tell wellington career govt officials....
now polluting engines you cant go far past this...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=thnSfZdjFlw
and whar about the number if freight liners on the road everyday in NZ... there are hundreds in the Golden Triangle...
this auction well...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IgYMO1FbUC4
Quote from: seaweed on Apr 29, 2025, 03:04 PMWow what a shocker. That documentary should be put on TVNZ to show all the EV drivers how wrong they are in trying to save the planet. Someone should also let the Greens know there is nothing wrong with a farting cow compared to the thousands of tons of crap that these Chinese monster factories are pumping out, not to mention the 8 to 10 people getting horrifically injured every day and many dying. Shame on those Indonesian and Chinese governments.
Interesting post, thanks for sharing, mate. I think hybrids with small batteries that halve your fuel consumption are the sweet spot mate. Small batteries don't cause much pollution making them, but fuel consumption can be approx. halved and no range anxiety or road user charges. I need to save some CO2 emissions to make up for all the fuel my boat uses lol
Looking forward to Turners reporting later this month.
The problem I have with hybrids is there is twice as many things to go wrong and you don't get the maintenance savings that you do on an EV.
Glad my ev battery doesn't contain nikel.
Quote from: Dolcile on May 01, 2025, 10:30 AMThe problem I have with hybrids is there is twice as many things to go wrong and you don't get the maintenance savings that you do on an EV.
Glad my ev battery doesn't contain nikel.
I used to think that, but it's not really the case. No alternator, no starter motor, so no drive belts (I think, it's raining so can't check). Less brake wear because of power regen. Less engine idling / slow running.
I liked the idea of electric but wouldn't want to deal with the charging side of things.
Also no extra Tax !
there is no doubt about it... nuclear powered car is the only solution...
go nuclear!!!
Had one of these with the gorgeous tan leather for about 9 months now, really happy with it and nothing has gone wrong so far. Really impressed with the quality and technology for the pretty reasonable money. Effectively a 4WD EV powered by electric motors which is charged with an on-board generator motor, 1.5 liter. Range about 1,000 km and takes 2 minutes to fill up with petrol. No road user charges and averaging only 5.1 liters per 100 km for a 2 ton SUV. Agree there's lots of equipment to go wrong but that's what the 5 year 150,000 km warranty is for lol. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PpK7Fv_QNd0&t=124s
I could easily spend 4-5 times the money on some luxury Euro SUV which would probably have a lower level of technology and equipment and depreciate like it is falling off a cliff, but what's the point. Todd actually recommended I stick with Japanese made because they're far more reliable. Avoid the Euro's he said. Vastly higher level of depreciation and number of problems.
you had one of those... yup this is the one alright... are there any shows around like this one?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vFRyxz2Agq8
Our man Todd posted this on other channel ....hope it doesn't intrude into my life but no doubt some of you will be in raptures with it
From Todd -
Hot off the press ... Tina 2.0 launches this Sunday night during TV1 News with a 90 second ad. Not many car dealers running 90 second ads!
You can see it here.
Supported with a massive digital campaign as well.
https://www.turners.co.nz/tina-from-turners-new-ad/?utm_source=internal&utm_medium=email&utm_content=TinasRoadTrip&utm_campaign=EDM-Cars-SEL-TinasRoadTrip-TOF_Brand
Hope you all like it.
Cheers
Todd
Quote from: winner (n) on May 02, 2025, 02:40 PMOur man Todd posted this on other channel ....hope it doesn't intrude into my life but no doubt some of you will be in raptures with it
Its definitely going to intrude on your life Winner - you won't be able to get the tune out of your head!
This ad will be massively popular - and I look forward to Turners brand recognition, market share and SP increasing as a result.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t-0nFtnlY7k
det är upp .....
Quote from: Basil on Apr 02, 2025, 03:57 PMMaybe, I'm forecasting eps of 50.5 cps in FY26 and based on the mid point of 65% divvy payout that's nearly 33 cps so they're certainly capable of paying 4 x 8 cps. If 33 cps fully imputed was to be paid, that's 33 / 0.72 = 45.83 cps gross and on a share price of $5.87 (when I last looed an hour or so ago that's 7.8% gross yield which is a very solid yield considering its prospects for ongoing growth in the future.
The more and more I look at Turners the more I like it. Roughly a 7.5% gross dividend with 35% of earnings reinvested in growth. I just wish I could get a few more - but the sell depth is non existent.
Quote from: Dolcile on May 10, 2025, 11:44 AMThe more and more I look at Turners the more I like it. Roughly a 7.5% gross dividend with 35% of earnings reinvested in growth. I just wish I could get a few more - but the sell depth is non existent.
Pretty sure you could fix the problems with the sales depth pretty easily. Just put a proper offer into the market. I would probably start thinking about selling my shares around $9 ... (obviously given the current conditions).
Turners remains my #1 investment position on the NZX. I have complete confidence in Todd, Aaron and the rest of the team. I have them on a FY26 PE estimate of 12 based on my estimate of FY26 eps of 50 cps. Given their astonishing track record of resilience and growth over the last 5 years and the brand power being grown with their award winning marketing, I see the shares as rock solid value at $6 and am looking forward to all the growth in the future.
As you say Dolcile, their ability to grow retaining approx 35% of earnings while contemporaneously paying a high, sustainable, reliable and rapidly growing level of fully imputed quarterly dividend income, marks them out as a standout investment. Knowing that all the senior management are fellow Alumni from Auckland University gives me an additional level of comfort that these guys have their heads well and truly screwed on properly. Additionally, Todd holds about 800,000 shares so our interests are aligned.
I noted 10,000 on offer all day yesterday at $6.04. It crossed my mind several times to take advantage of that...and I might still do so next week, but I am pretty well positioned already.
Looking forward to them reporting FY25 later this month. My pick is NPBT of $55 to $56m, and that's where analysts have their estimates for FY26 ! Analyst upgrades will be forthcoming, in my opinion.
Quote from: BlackPeter on May 10, 2025, 11:56 AMPretty sure you could fix the problems with the sales depth pretty easily. Just put a proper offer into the market. I would probably start thinking about selling my shares around $9 ... (obviously given the current conditions).
lol. I've been buying for a while and it has been nice picking up shares sub $6
Wilson Asset Management do rave about TRA ....echos of Basil's rave
They like NZ stocks and TRA seems one of the best
https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/economy/nzme-mainfreight-summerset-why-this-australian-investor-likes-nz-listed-companies
He said Turners Automotive had done an exceptional job of managing through the economic cycle, and its strong results showed the business's diversification.
Quote from: winner (n) on May 12, 2025, 09:54 AMWilson Asset Management do rave about TRA ....echos of Basil's rave
They like NZ stocks and TRA seems one of the best
Vilson eh? Vell of course he likes Turners. Ze more cars zold. Ze more customers vor heez confounded round town car parking lots!
RB
Tina's after the simple life. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/talanoa/why-tina-from-turners-is-leaving-new-zealand-for-life-in-samoa/5TURXFRWANANFPKBKGTXNXNLRA/
Great work that as I understand it, Todd was very smart to lock her in on a long term key person marketing contract.
Extract from article speaks for itself.
"Leo'o Olo remains open to bookings and intends to travel back for work when required. But returning to New Zealand permanently is unlikely".
Yes, Todd just confirmed as much on the other site.
All the best to her.
Good stuff. Reposted below.
QuoteTodd Hunter Whilst Bubba is moving to Samoa she is still available for jobs (like ours) in NZ. Luckily there are still planes flying back and forward! There are also recording studios we can use in Samoa to do audio work if we need the song updated for example. We have recorded a huge amount of video content in the last 4 weeks, which we think is enough to cover us for at least another 4 years. This is how long the previous ads have run for in case you were wondering. We make sure we get the most from this investment!
And well spotted by Perky...she is actually holding a Samoan flag in front of the Tongan flag car!
I do like the headline of the NZ Herald article..."Tina from Turners" is moving to Samoa, not Bubba!
I see compelling value here and ongoing solid growth in the years ahead so I bought a few more this morning.
they will be opening up in fiji before you know it... and other island... not sure what they will be selling... but hey they will probably think of something....
Turners Auckland sales might be taking a hit with millions watching this NZ Cheap Cars campaign
https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/360690097/watch-kiwi-ad-cheap-used-cars-has-over-2m-views-tiktok
oh dear is that why the share priced failed to move on up...
truly pathetic if that is the state of the nation....
now for a proper car review... much more interesting than the brain less viewers on TT..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0WR6rYxUaw
Forsyth Barr released a 23 page in depth report on TRA on 27 March. An excellent bit of work that really drilled down into every aspect of the business.
They are forecasting eps of 43.3 cps for FY25 rising to 47.6 and 51 cps in the following two years.
Dividends 28 cps for FY25 rising to 30.5 cps and 33.5 cps
Price target $7.05 Rating Overweight.
I think their targets are conservative and will be subject to probably upgrade after the forthcoming report on 26 May. On their numbers TRA are on a current FY26 year PE of 12.8 and gross yield of 6.95% @ $6.09. Very attractive metrics given their track record and future prospects for growth.
parfait!
Looking forward to the annual result presentation tomorrow - hopefully Todd delivers above guidance.
Results are out and growth is very strong. The business has performed exceptionally well with substantial growth in eps and dividends in a very weak economy. Final divvy of 9 cps substantially exceeded my expectations.
Key Financial Highlights:
● Revenue $414.2m -1%
● EBIT 1 $62.3m +6%
● NPBT $54.3m +10%
● NPAT $38.6m +17%
● Earnings per share (EPS) 43.3 cps +17%
● Final dividend declared of 9.0 cps
● Full year dividend of 29 cps +14%
More here https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/452221/attachment/444157/452221-444157.pdf
I will posts further thoughts later after reading through all the material and listening to the call.
CAGR in dividends of 14% over the last 11 years !
At a very high-level look that is a lovely result!
With Auto Retail now firmly back in
growth mode, we enter FY26 with strong momentum across all segments. We are on track to
reach our FY28 targets earlier than expected. Our Tina brand refresh and new campaign
launch reflect continued investment in a proven formula that is delivering strongly."
FY28 target going to be earlier than expected!
Quote from: winner (n) on May 15, 2025, 06:16 PMTurners Auckland sales might be taking a hit with millions watching this NZ Cheap Cars campaign
https://www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/360690097/watch-kiwi-ad-cheap-used-cars-has-over-2m-views-tiktok
Oh, i just discovered these guys videos. They are great. I'm now a big fan.
Quote from: Dolcile on May 26, 2025, 09:13 AMAt a very high-level look that is a lovely result!
With Auto Retail now firmly back in
growth mode, we enter FY26 with strong momentum across all segments. We are on track to
reach our FY28 targets earlier than expected. Our Tina brand refresh and new campaign
launch reflect continued investment in a proven formula that is delivering strongly."
FY28 target going to be earlier than expected!
Yes future growth looks assured !! The company currently has 3 further sites under conditional offer at the moment with plenty more in the pipeline.
I reckon they hit FY28's target NPBT of $65m in FY27 !
Is anyone else having trouble with the link to the results presentation online?
Share price up up and away
What's the all time high again
I tried and gave up.
The photo on page 24 of the presentation is TRA's Hornby Christchurch site.
I viewed this site and was very impressed.
According to Michael at Hornby the Wairakei Road site will be the same size.
No problem getting on the call for me.
Managed to pick up a few more shares this morning too.
From the call
Strong growth expected in the receivables book this year, >10%
Strong growth in branch expansion next 4-5 years, (ambivalent about owning or leasing, whichever makes more sense for the business on a case by case basis)
Economy to grow more slowly than expected, needs interest rate stimulus
Expecting profit from rebrand of My Auto Shop business rebrand to Turners servicing and repairs from FY27 but nothing forecasted in at this point, break even in FY26
Strong momentum across all divisions as we've moved into FY26.
Very positive feedback on the Tina 2.0 relaunch marketing campaign and raising marketing significantly in FY26 to support branch expansion
My comment: An exceptionally well managed business. I am expecting ~ 10% growth in earnings and dividends per share in FY26 and FY27.
I had the same takeaways Basil. I was very pleased to hear Todd speak so positively about the Auto Retail business kicking on.
How do we place a value on this great business ?
It will be interesting to see where the brokers land with their revised price targets. Forsyth Barr were at $7.05 before this announcement and earnings came in slightly above their expectations.
One way of measuring Turners growth is the change in Book Value (Shareholders Equity)
In F25 NPAT was 38.6m and less other stuff of 5.6m gives Comprehensive Income of 33.0m
Dividend of 18.2 paid and new capital of 5.3m (Inc DRP)
So Book Value (Shareholders Funds) up 20.2m or 7.3%
On a per share Book Value up 5.8%
Pretty good when a large chunk of profit is paid out in divies
In a note released this morning Forsyth Barr call the FY25 result "High Octane" and go on to say among many other things
Quote"TRA normalised EPS and DPS have grown at +10% and +11% per annum respectively since FY15.
We think TRA's 12 month forward PE of 12.7 it still to cheap for a business with an underlying track record as one of the most consistent compounders in the NZ market. We retain our outperform rating, with a modestly increased price target of $7.30"
(They were at $7.06 before the result)
They are forecasting TRA gets ahead of its FY28 target of $65m NPBT a year early in FY27 with their forecast of NPAT of $48.2m for FY27, (~$67m NPBT) with upside from My Autoshop
Forecasts
QuoteFY26 Forecast EPS 48.0 cps, DPS 32.5 cps
FY27 Forecast EPS 52.9 cps, DPS 36.0 cps
FY28 Forecast EPS 57.4 cps, DPS 39.5 cps
Amoung other things they called out
Quoteowned unit sales increasing 6%, vehicle margins rebounded in 2H, (noting Turners said conditions last winter were as bad as during the middle of the GFC), inventory turnover ratio continues to improve, the loan book returning to growth.
QuoteFurther upside to earnings remains possible if (1) branch rollout is accelerated, (Turners mentioned it has 3 new sites currently under offer), (2) margin tailwinds from its retail optimisation and digital scale exceed our expectations, (3) accelerated OCR cuts...(4) the N.Z. economy recovers more quickly than expected.
My comment. TRA's track record with all the economic challenges over the last 5 years, especially since Covid 5 years ago has been truly outstanding and surprised many people. I expect their track record of growth to continue for the foreseeable future. Consistent 10% annual growth in earnings is normally associated with a much higher PE than 12.7 and I think Turners is N.Z's preeminent GARP (growth at a reasonable price) stock and I am more than happy to remain with it being my #1 invested position. I think the team at Turners are doing an outstanding job of building the business and I take my hat off to them. This is arguably the best managed company on the NZX.
Can't disagree with any of that Basil. One thing I like about TRA is the different sources of revenues & profits .....insurance is going great guns and they have the finance arm under control. So a soft year in one area doesn't pull down the whole result.
Great post Basil.
Can you remind me, what is that GARP formula you've previously mentioned?
Thanks
Quote from: Dolcile on May 27, 2025, 09:47 AMGreat post Basil.
Can you remind me, what is that GARP formula you've previously mentioned?
Thanks
Thanks, sure. The legendary investor Ben Graham said intrinsic value was eps x no growth PE of 8.5, (when the risk free 10 year rate is 4%) + 2g, where g is the expected growth rate over the next 7-10 years.
This was based on historical eps.
I use 1g in my calculations based on forward earnings and look for stocks that are trading below that as being fantastic value. TRA have a decade long history of growing eps at 10% and a forecast to keep doing this so I think g = 10.
No growth PE should be 8 with the 10 year risk free rate at circa 4.7%. Adding 1g of 10 to that sees a fair PE for TRA of 18 x next year earnings which are forecasted at 48 cps = $8.64
That sounds outrageous putting a PE of 18 on Turners but is it really considering their outstanding track record of growth over the last decade that's forecast to continue ? Fact checking this with for example, Briscoes, with declining earnings in recent years, its on a PE of 17.85 so its clear a PE of 18 is not ridiculous with another quality retailer or with the market in general.
Most brokers will use peer group multiplies to value TRA in relation to other retailers and in particular to others in the motor vehicle industry. What they are missing is that comparing TRA's track record of growth with second hand cars and their other business divisions is very different to the far more cyclical track record of new motor vehicle distributors.
I think Forsyth Barr's forecast of $7.30 is quite conservative and certainly the current share price is deep within my deep value growth screening methodology.
Perhaps even more importantly to me as a nearly retired investor, (I could easily retire now but still enjoy working with most of my clients I have known for ~ 30 years) is the CAGR in dividends over the last decade of 14% per annum which is without peer on the NZX and a truly outstanding track record of dividend growth.
TRA has been rewarded over the years with multiple expansions
Question is how high can it go
That P/B multiple is looking a bit high for a outfit doing 10%/12% ROE and pretty high dividend payout at 70%
But BV could go a bit higher if they put a lot of property they holding at cost in the books at market value
Here's how multiples have gone over the years .....month closes and past twelve months eps.
IMG_6154.png
Best peer group comparison is Briscoes with as mentioned, declining earnings in recent years and very limited apparent growth ahead so really does deserve to be on a much lower PE than Turner's but their PE is nearly 18 and tangible book value per share off Jarden website is only $1.34 but their share price is north of $4.90. Also well worth noting Rod Duke's age and that Todd and Aaron have a lot more high octane gas in the tank than he does in terms of their working lives ahead of them.
I was updating my model yesterday....some updated graphs for the latest TRA result.
From 2015 to 2025:
~ Sales have gone from $90m to $414m
~ NPAT has gone from $11m to almost $39m
~ NPAT as a % of sales has gone from 12% to 9.3%
~ shares on issue have gone from 63m to 90m
~ EPS has gone from 17.4c to 42.9c
~ cash dividend has gone from 9c to 27.5c
The reason for looking at sales/share is to remove the impact of share issues on topline sales expansion. That way I can assess the impact of the 4 drivers for the SP being: sales, NPAT%, share count, P/E multiple to see what has driven the SP change. 2015-2025 the SP has gone from $3.25 to $5.82; most of this was driven by topline sales expansion rather than P/E expansion. This is a different time period to winner's analysis so will have slightly different results.
TRA EPS 2025 - Copy.JPG
TRA DPS 2025 - Copy.JPG
TRA Equity 2025 - Copy.JPG
Thanks Ferg. Well worth noting the share price is up 79% in the last decade but eps is up 147% so the PE has actually contracted a lot despite TRA proving up their business model very successfully. ! Dividends have tripled in the last decade ! Is there any other company on the NZX that can come anywhere near that track record of dividend growth ?
They don't seem to have included the cool chart of market share they usually put in the presentations
Always like that one
Yeah I noticed that too. Usually leave it out when its not quite as good as they were hoping for lol
What's impressive though is how many more branches they are opening up this year and a great pipeline coming as well. Additionally, there's three live conditional offers for new sites currently in play and other prospects further down the pipeline as well.
On the call Todd says the new Tina 2.0 advertisement has already had over 1 million hits on YouTube and the 1 minute add had on average. 57 seconds playtime which basically means the vast majority of people listened to the whole advertisement.
Forward PE of 12.7 very good value for a company with a 10 year CAGR in EPS of 10% and 10 year CAGR in DPS of 14% don't you think ?
Final divvy of 9 cps was a very nice surprise, (I was hoping for 8 cps). I'm almost temped to take the cash this time instead of DRIP and have a big mid winter party.
Quote from: Basil on May 28, 2025, 03:25 PMI'm almost temped to take the cash this time instead of DRIP and have a big mid winter party.
Your shout at Oyster & Chop? ;D
HI Basil
I asked Todd about this, as well as the unrealised property gains, after the meeting and he sent me the graphs of the market share and the number of auto dealers (I am having difficulty posting it- so get in touch with me if you want me to send it to you).
His reply:
"Market share hovering around 8.5% - 9.5% depending on the month. Overall trend is still very much up.
We want to focus people more on unit growth to be honest as market share is not something we can control directly.
Here are the dealer numbers...still heading down."
"Unrealised property gains around 10%. Obviously the properties we have had for a while show much bigger gains than that, but the developments we have done over the last 3-4 years no real gains at all."
Dealer registrations dropped to 2765 as of April 2025
Wow Turners closed at $6.50. Although the weighted average was $6.27.
Mr Market is slowly waking up to what I have been talking about for quite some time now...the fact that TRA has proven it has a decade long blue chip track record of both EPS and DPS growth despite the extraordinary economic challenges over the last 5 years. Its remarkable that they keep growing strongly despite the persistent economic adversity. I'm really looking forward to seeing how they perform in the years ahead with better economic conditions. Turners in my opinion is a blue chip growth stock fully deserving of a significantly higher multiple than it currently trades on and I foresee both strong earnings growth as well as significant multiple expansion going forward. Management are doing a brilliant job.
I wish i had more
Quote from: winner (n) on May 27, 2025, 10:09 AMTRA has been rewarded over the years with multiple expansions
Question is how high can it go
That P/B multiple is looking a bit high for a outfit doing 10%/12% ROE and pretty high dividend payout at 70%
But BV could go a bit higher if they put a lot of property they holding at cost in the books at market value
Here's how multiples have gone over the years .....month closes and past twelve months eps.
IMG_6154.png
Yes good question.
Ive knocked the top off my holdings whilst the Tina,Turner:) lovefest is in full swing and bought my first MFB.
Forsyth Barr at forecasting EPS of 48.0, 52.9 and 57.4 cps over the next 3 years. $6.50 / 0.48 = forward PE of 13.5 which seems very reasonable indeed for a company that has a proven track record of growing eps by a 10 year CAGR of 10% per annum and is forecast to continue doing the same. Ticks all my boxes and I am very happy to continue to hold my #1 listed investment position and enjoy all the growth in the future.
Turners wins most trusted used vehicle brand for the sixth year in a row. Maybe they should also win the award for the most trusted share investment lol
https://www.drivencarguide.co.nz/news/nzs-most-trusted-new-car-and-used-car-brands-revealed-in-readers-digest-survey/?lid=c6z8l2z91bua&utm_source=dcg_newsletter&utm_medium=dcg_email&utm_campaign=20250530_EDM_WEEKLY_WRAP&uuid=4507e39e-a4ef-4120-aa89-7ee4be15d16c
its that song..and the rather shy take off of men at work.... YMCA...
bare chest's in all....
some marketing departments joke... the song could be worth 100's BPS..
what can you say... its almost defines the nation...did they include a surf board and park up on the beach? next time.. next time...
well even after the rain its a long long summer in the BOP...
Looks like China is about to enter EV Crisis...
Price discounting by 35 percent off BYD models...
EV share price collapse..?
with global trade growth now focus on India and southern Asia.. NZ may not look like such a beached ship after all..
This stock may well be the most defensive stock along with gen...
There should be a really happy vibe at this years annual meeting !
$6.59 close. Outstanding
Dealer to public used car sales up a whopping 11% in May. Strongest month in ages. Turners market share gains will be on top of that. No matter what's going on in the world, Turners does great business.
https://www.turners.co.nz/globalassets/terms-and-conditions/market-report-cars---May-2025.pdf
That's good news basil eh
Suppose a bit soon for a profit upgrade but they'll have to come clean sometime before ASM
What was expectations again?
increased DIV or at least hopefully staying with 9...
Quote from: winner (n) on Jun 13, 2025, 03:22 PMSuppose a bit soon for a profit upgrade but they'll have to come clean sometime before ASM
What was expectations again?
Too early in the year for any guidance but they did seem very confident about prospects during the call and mentioned they are ahead of plan for their FY28 NPBT target of $65m, but we knew that already eh. ;) Forsyth Barr has them exceeding FY28 guidance in FY27.
Should be lots of good positive vibes at the annual meeting and as you suggest, maybe some progress update.
I'm just going to sit back and enjoy the decade long 10% CAGR in EPS and 14% CAGR in dividends and let that ongoing strong growth flow through to the share price in the years ahead. The shares are a compelling long term hold in my opinion.
Div to increase to 10?
Forsyth Barr's forecast EPS and DPS in the years ahead. At $6.56 PE and Gross yield are as follows
FY26 Forecast EPS 48.0 cps, DPS 32.5 cps PE 13.7 Yield 6.9%
FY27 Forecast EPS 52.9 cps, DPS 36.0 cps PE 12.4 Yield 7.6%
FY28 Forecast EPS 57.4 cps, DPS 39.5 cps PE 11.4 Yield 8.4%
Still very compelling value. Not sure i could ever invest in fixed interest bonds when we have a stock like Turners that can weather such economic conditions.
if this is what this stock does when the economy is on it knees... oh no it still crawling apparently.. does that mean one knee up at a time or is that belly flopping...
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/133772/economy-may-be-crawling-little-while-longer-while-previous-house-price-forecasts
maybe thats the next gig for the adverts some hip hopping or was that already in the add?
dont watch NZ TV... saw the Add on you tube somewhere...
no green shoots apparently... no but honestly with a late autumn the grass is green this time of year.. fabulous.. must hard to paint...
https://www.christies.com/en/stories/david-hockney-yorkshire-landscapes-7d568b3e0d3046e0a54c10dd4927062b
TRA closed today at $6.70. I think this is the ATH?
Yes it is. A few comparative companies Forsyth Barr use in their $7.30 valuation for TRA and forward PE for them include
Eagers Automotive PE 16.9
Peter Warren Automotive PE 15.5
Turners PE 13.2, (when the valuation was done on 27 May and share price was $6.20)
Turners trades cum a 9 cent divvy due next month. Why sell when its still relatively cheap compared to its peers and there's likely 10% CAGR in EPS and DPS for the foreseeable future ?
Looking ahead to this time next year in mid 2026, on prospective FY27 EPS per Forbar's estimate of 52.9 cps a PE of 16.9 times that is $8.94. Might happen, we'll see.
Quote from: Basil on Jun 16, 2025, 05:41 PMWhy sell when its still relatively cheap compared to its peers and there's likely 10% CAGR in EPS and DPS for the foreseeable future ?
Looking ahead to next year on prospective FY27 EPS per Forbar's estimate of 52.9 cps a PE of 16.9 times that is $8.94.
I have no intention of selling - and recently bought more.
Quote from: Pierre on Jun 16, 2025, 05:45 PMI have no intention of selling - and recently bought more.
No interest in selling from me either. Without any doubt, it's one of the very best managed companies on the NZX
I'm holding firm. It's a bond like safety with the upside of a growth company.
green than... GREEN!!!
Quote from: Dolcile on Jun 16, 2025, 06:00 PMI'm holding firm. It's a bond like safety with the upside of a growth company.
Agree 100%. Not many companies pay quarterly divvies. Not all companies pay fully imputed divvies. Not many companies have a dividend reinvestment plan.
All these factors combined make a real difference with compounding 4 times a year and raises the annual effective dividend rate.
For example, looking ahead to next year with Forsyth Barr forecasting 36 cps in FY27 fully imputed divvies, = 50 cps gross (36 / 0.72), on $6.70 that gives an apparent gross yield of 50/670 = 7.46% which is great with growth coming in the years thereafter but, (and please excuse the geek accountant in me number crunching everything to the finest detail), factor in the quarterly compounding and 2% DRP discount the effective gross annual rate is actually 7.78%
Not many low risk bonds paying that :) In my books that means you're being paid very well to hold and enjoy all the growth in the years ahead.
The Title of Forsyth Barr's $7.30 valuation research is "High Octane" I think that sums it up very well.
Quote from: Basil on May 27, 2025, 10:20 AMBest peer group comparison is Briscoes with as mentioned, declining earnings in recent years and very limited apparent growth ahead so really does deserve to be on a much lower PE than Turner's but their PE is nearly 18 and tangible book value per share off Jarden website is only $1.34 but their share price is north of $4.90. Also well worth noting Rod Duke's age and that Todd and Aaron have a lot more high octane gas in the tank than he does in terms of their working lives ahead of them.
Briscoes now on a PE of 22 - wow.
Its just been included in the NZX50 with a lot of resulting buying pressure. 22 x ~ 50 cents EPS next year = $11 for TRA ! Would make a heck of a lot more sense at that level even than Briscoes where it finished yesterday because TRA is growing its EPS at 10% CAGR whereas Briscoes is definitely not !
A new Turners site is nearing completion in Christchurch. On Northern Motorway offramp by the airport
I reckon a great location for tourists. Hop off your plane. Buy a car. Travel the south island. Sell your car back to tuners and catch a return flight home.
Marketing guru once said "Creative without strategy is called 'art' — creative with strategy is called 'advertising.'"
We know where Tina fits in eh
Celebrating a decade of growth. Annual report just released and hot off the press. https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/453872/attachment/446187/453872-446187.pdf
Exec Talks Series - Ep 2 | Todd Hunter - Driving success: Turners defying economic headwinds - From Craigs Investment Partners
https://youtu.be/EMzB93eWsJQ?si=rna3_v56_yyP927e
Thanks for posting that link.
There were a couple of key takeaways for me:
Currently we have 21 car branches, this can certainly increase to 30 (potentially more). And that gives them 5-7 years of retail growth.
The branch network is their single biggest competitive advantage in sourcing cars - people will travel the country to buy the right car, but when selling you want to go down the road.
They think of Auto as rolling out a supermarket strategy for used cars.
There are 4.5m registered cars in NZ and 1.5m of them are changing hands every year.
by the Airport locations where possible will be for the next pandemic....
buy as you get off the plane...with america now out of the WHO.... it cant be far away and you wont the warning this time of 'Its not a global pandemic'... at least time you got a definite NO... this time... not even that... you wont know its here or anywhere... to many bombs going off...
we are in the lap of the gods...
Quote from: Basil on Jun 24, 2025, 04:43 PMCelebrating a decade of growth. Annual report just released and hot off the press. https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/453872/attachment/446187/453872-446187.pdf
Basil it seems like the cash flow statement is not quite right. The dividend according to the cash flow statement dropped to less than $14m from nearly $22m the previous year.
Quote from: Stockgathering on Jun 25, 2025, 09:42 AMBasil it seems like the cash flow statement is not quite right. The dividend according to the cash flow statement dropped to less than $14m from nearly $22m the previous year.
I was wondering the same, but it seems that the dividend was paid in April 2025 this year, whereas last year it was March 2024. So just timing.
Your right Dolcile, that will be it.
Quote from: Dolcile on Jun 25, 2025, 09:46 AMI was wondering the same, but it seems that the dividend was paid in April 2025 this year, whereas last year it was March 2024. So just timing.
Paid in March that year to avoid the increase to 39c tax rate effective 1st April for Trusts.
Closed today at $6.85 - a new ATH. The good news continues.
Inspired by some work esteemed Snoopy did on other channel re Nvudia I did this for Turners
Grahams Formula V = EPS(8 + 2g)
So 6.85 = .43.3 x (8 +2g)
Solving for g(rowth) gives 8 ....market pricing in a 8% growth rate for Turners
What's the CAGR for last 10 years?
Solving that formula does not give 8. Remember its no PE of (actually 8.5) + 2G
$6.85 = eps of (last year) 43.3 cps x X.
X must be 15.81
X = 15.81 and we deduct 8.5 no growth PE from that then 2g must be 7.31, therefore g = 3.66.
10% CAGR in EPS and 14% CAGR in dividends for the last decade.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
Reverting to my well proven GARP value screening formula which is a derivation of that model using 1G and forward eps I get
V = 48, (from Forsyth Barr research for FY26) x (8.5 + 1G) and I use 10% as g because they've proven they can do that and have a clear runway of growth for the next ~ 7 years I get
48 x (8.5+ 10) = $8.88
Conclusion, I see no reason whatsoever to sell any of my shares and will remain fully involved in the dividend reinvestment program.
I still think there's a lot of value there where the stock is priced. The following is a a complete list of all stocks on the NZX that have grown EPS by a 10% CAGR over the last decade that trade on a PE less than 18.5.
.
.
.
.
There are none apart from TRA.
Quote from: Basil on Jun 26, 2025, 09:54 AMSolving that formula does not give 8. Remember its no PE of (actually 8.5) + 2G
$6.85 = eps of (last year) 43.3 cps x X.
X must be 15.81
X = 15.81 and we deduct 8.5 no growth PE from that then 2g must be 7.31, therefore g = 3.66.
10% CAGR in EPS and 14% CAGR in dividends for the last decade.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
Reverting to my well proven GARP value screening formula which is a derivation of that model using 1G and forward eps I get
V = 48, (from Forsyth Barr research for FY26) x (8.5 + 1G) and I use 10% as g because they've proven they can do that and have a clear runway of growth for the next ~ 7 years I get
48 x (8.5+ 10) = $8.88
Conclusion, I see no reason whatsoever to sell any of my shares and will remain fully involved in the dividend reinvestment program.
I still think there's a lot of value there where the stock is priced. The following is a a complete list of all stocks on the NZX that have grown EPS by a 10% CAGR over the last decade that trade on a PE less than 18.5.
.
.
.
.
There are none.
Mic drop
Best comparative in my opinion and one Forsyth Barr use, (there isn't a perfect one due to the diversified nature of TRA's business) is Eagers Automotive in Australia. Ticker code APE
Been around a long time and its a fast growing business with broad exposure to the Australian Automotive industry.
In 2014 they earned 43 cps https://web-assets.cdn.dealersolutions.com.au/modular.multisite.dealer.solutions/wp-content/uploads/sites/2892/2021/12/29123405/eagers_annual_report_2014.pdf
Last year they earned 80 cps.
Their CAGR in EPS over the last decade has been 6.5%, 3.5% lower than TRA.
Currently trading on 15.6 times forecasted FY26 EPS. If TRA were on the same spot valuation it would be 15.6 x 48 cps = $7.49 now and one year hence from now 15.6 x forecasted FY27 eps of 52.9 cps = $8.25
I think its not that hard to make the case that with TRA EPS growing faster than APE and its EPS growing at a more steady rate, (APE has been very volatile with large cyclical swings in new car sales over the years in line with changing economic conditions), and TRA including servicing going forward (APE already do this) that TRA actually deserve a valuation premium over APE.
Basil ....compartives to ASX peers one needs to apply a NZX discount....be a much smaller and less liquid market
You can make that argument Winner but APE are growing quite a lot slower, (matured business ?), and have far more variability with their earnings. As you can see here, https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/EAGERS-AUTOMOTIVE-LIMITED-6492637/finances/ their eps was actually $1.21 in 2022 and is forecast to only get back to that same level by FY27, so no growth over those 5 years ! Comparatively over that same historical and forecast timeframe, Turners earned 36 cps in FY22 and is forecast to earn 53 cps in FY27. Turners is clearly growing strongly and Eagers Automotive, frankly, you could make the case is now a mature business that's treading water and yet commands a forward PE of nearly 16 times earnings.
Bens other formula is thevBennGraham Number
For what its worth Ben if he used that number would only be looking at buying Turners under $5.65
But methinks $8 on card sooner than later
Anyone care to buy at $6.85 to clear the way for $7 to close the week? :-)
Quote from: Dolcile on Jun 27, 2025, 02:16 PMAnyone care to buy at $6.85 to clear the way for $7 to close the week? :-)
LOL mate, why do I suspect you're like me and value your portfolio at the end of each week ;)
Quote from: Dolcile on Jun 27, 2025, 02:16 PMAnyone care to buy at $6.85 to clear the way for $7 to close the week? :-)
Who's that 10,000 order at 6.80. Basil is that you? I might buy more next few weeks plus a few other companies. Have got a fairly big investment maturing on 4th July and that will be going into the market and not another term deposit. Very hard buying TRA, nobody wants to sell.
Quote from: seaweed on Jun 27, 2025, 03:11 PMWho's that 10,000 order at 6.80. Basil is that you? I might buy more next few weeks plus a few other companies. Have got a fairly big investment maturing on 4th July and that will be going into the market and not another term deposit. Very hard buying TRA, nobody wants to sell.
Hi Seaweed, nice to hear from you mate. The problem for buyers is why would anyone want to sell.... In terms of my position, I'm very content with what I have already as its been my #1 investment position for quite some time now. That said, I'm more than happy to gradually accumulate more each quarter through the dividend reinvestment program. (Note: Turners goes ex a 9 cent fully imputed dividend on 11 July, paid 29 July). https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/452221/attachment/444153/452221-444153.pdf
I stand 100% behind my comments above and believe Turners are still a compelling buy for long term growth at the current level but as I have a boatload already, I am very content to sit back and enjoy the journey in the years ahead. Todd, Tina, Aaron and the others...what a team !
Quote from: Basil on Jun 27, 2025, 02:45 PMLOL mate, why do I suspect you're like me and value your portfolio at the end of each week ;)
Guilty as charged ;)
Quote from: Basil on Jun 27, 2025, 03:24 PMHi Seaweed, nice to hear from you mate. The problem for buyers is why would anyone want to sell.... In terms of my position, I'm very content with what I have already as its been my #1 investment position for quite some time now. That said, I'm more than happy to gradually accumulate more each quarter through the dividend reinvestment program. (Note: Turners goes ex a 9 cent fully imputed dividend on 11 July, paid 29 July). https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/452221/attachment/444153/452221-444153.pdf
I stand 100% behind my comments above and believe Turners are still a compelling buy for long term growth at the current level but as I have a boatload already, I am very content to sit back and enjoy the journey in the years ahead. Todd, Tina, Aaron and the others...what a team !
Totally agree. On a related note, I was pleased to see at the back of the annual report, that as well as the directors interest being well aligned, that Todd has circa 1.2m shares !
up up and away.....
Bugger, if I was paying attention yesterday - and not enjoying a cold beer - I'd have tipped in a few more bob at $7 just for good weekend vibes.
There's always Monday. I wouldn't mind wagering a few bucks you revalue your portfolio at month end too ;)
Speaking of good vibes, there should be a really good one at the annual meeting this year as we all celebrate together a decade of growth.
Extract from the opening comments in the annual report sums it up nicely.
"This year marks a full decade of consistent growth and plenty of satisfied shareholders. Since 2014,
we've tripled our profits, quadrupled dividends and revved up market share. And we're not done yet –
the engine is just starting to warm up.
To our shareholders, customers and team, thanks for backing us. We're proud to be New Zealand's largest
buyer and seller of used vehicles along with auto finance and insurance – and we'll keep delivering the
goods whether it's Paddy Gower's V-Dub with the flower, or that one with the Macca's bag still in it!
On behalf of the Board and management of Turners Automotive Group Limited, we are pleased to present
the Annual Report for the financial year ended 31 March 2025.
Beep Beep !"
I haven't been for a few years but I think this years annual meeting attendance is a "must do"
7 dollar party !!
Well done holders.
Quote from: winner (n) on Jun 26, 2025, 08:32 AMInspired by some work esteemed Snoopy did on other channel re Nvudia I did this for Turners
Grahams Formula V = EPS(8 + 2g)
So 6.85 = .43.3 x (8 +2g)
Solving for g(rowth) gives 8 ....market pricing in a 8% growth rate for Turners
What's the CAGR for last 10 years?
10 years earnings CAGR for TRA was 7.9 .
So, yes - if they keep growing with that speed, they are really cheap.
Congrats to all holders.
Some might be interested to note that since the Tina campaign kicked off, eps was 24.4 cps in FY20 https://www.turnersautogroup.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Turners-Annual-Report-2020_electronic.pdf and has grown to 43.3 cps in FY25, a 12% CAGR in EPS over the last 5 years !
Remarkably this growth came about notwithstanding most of those years were affected by either Covid or the longest running recession since the GFC. (Todd described last winter's trading as worse than the GFC) Demonstrates the extra growth Tina has brought to the company in recent years as well as a remarkable resiliency of the business..
tis da new high? boy oh boy..
Agree its had a great run in the last year and I couldn't be happier but I think its very important to think medium to long term which is why I have no intention of selling any of mine. Backing out the imminently due FY25 Q4 dividend of 9 cps shareholders at $7.10 are paying a net $7.01 for all future earnings for this company which has a proven CAGR of 12% across the most difficult 5 years of trading in N.Z's retail history. To call this stock resilient is to miss the point of how exceptionally resilient it really is and how remarkable the growth story is against such extreme economic and pandemic adversity.
Based on Forsyth Barr's numbers at $7.01, (net) buyers are paying just 13.25 times next year's (FY27) earnings. That still seems compelling to me and is at a huge discount to the average metrics the market trades on despite Turners extraordinary track record. I think this is undoubtedly one of the very best managed companies on the NZX. Let me put it this way, I don't ever miss even one minute of sleep wondering if Todd, Aaron and other senior management could be doing a better job.
Quote from: Basil on Jul 02, 2025, 08:48 PMAgree its had a great run in the last year and I couldn't be happier but I think its very important to think medium to long term which is why I have no intention of selling any of mine. Backing out the imminently due FY25 Q4 dividend of 9 cps shareholders at $7.10 are paying a net $7.01 for all future earnings for this company which has a proven CAGR of 12% across the most difficult 5 years of trading in N.Z's retail history. To call this stock resilient is to miss the point of how exceptionally resilient it really is and how remarkable the growth story is against such extreme economic and pandemic adversity.
Based on Forsyth Barr's numbers at $7.01, (net) buyers are paying just 13.25 times next year's (FY27) earnings. That still seems compelling to me and is at a huge discount to the average metrics the market trades on despite Turners extraordinary track record. I think this is undoubtedly one of the very best managed companies on the NZX. Let me put it this way, I don't ever miss even one minute of sleep wondering if Todd, Aaron and other senior management could be doing a better job.
Sounds like life's too easy Roger, get some FBU in the portfolio to spice things up ( or down would be more apt) :)
are they scones an good at the AGM? and are there any fill rolls with perfect puffy pastry?
just wondering...
Not to pour cold water on what is a phenomenal company and now fantastic share price growth,... but I'd just caution that the recent share price has been driven by low volume. So as soon as someone actually wants to sell a decent partial (but why would you?) we might see it step down as quickly as it has risen.
oh well that would be great!!! but more likely an off market deal to unload large vols... share price wont move...
7.15....
Quote from: Basil on Jun 30, 2025, 07:17 PMCongrats to all holders.
Some might be interested to note that since the Tina campaign kicked off, eps was 24.4 cps in FY20 https://www.turnersautogroup.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2022/08/Turners-Annual-Report-2020_electronic.pdf and has grown to 43.3 cps in FY25, a 12% CAGR in EPS over the last 5 years !
Remarkably this growth came about notwithstanding most of those years were affected by either Covid or the longest running recession since the GFC. (Todd described last winter's trading as worse than the GFC) Demonstrates the extra growth Tina has brought to the company in recent years as well as a remarkable resiliency of the business..
A lot of it is simply inflation. If the price of everything goes up by 50% then revenue goes up 50%, and so do your profits.
You raise a fair point KW that inflation has certainly been a material factor over that period with some years over 7% per annum but according to the RBNZ inflation calculator the cumulative compound inflation from Q1 2020 to Q1 2025 totaled 23.48% and Turners earnings per share grew 77.46%. Yes it was a material percentage but I would draw your attention to what is arguably the best other retailer on the NZX that trades on a PE of 19.2, that being Briscoes. Its eps actually declined from 28 cps to 27 cps over that 5 year period with the loss in earnings due to inflation on top of that.
Briscoes is certainly not alone in that regard, in fact, many other companies on the NZX hardly grew earnings at all or had an earnings decline over what was arguably the most challenging 5 year period of trading conditions in our lifetime. To grow EPS by 77.46% over that period is a real stand-out achievement in my view and I really look forward to them kicking some serious financial goals when the economy eventually climbs its way out of the moribund state its in.
Quote from: Stoploss on Jul 03, 2025, 07:45 AMSounds like life's too easy Roger, get some FBU in the portfolio to spice things up ( or down would be more apt) :)
LOL, "thanks" but no thanks !!
Quote from: Waltzing on Jul 03, 2025, 09:07 AMare they scones an good at the AGM? and are there any fill rolls with perfect puffy pastry?
just wondering...
Come along and find out mate. Should be a great vibe there this year !
It could well be down to inflation but DIV is not paid out of gross numbers and ...
it been an economic compression on most bottom lines...
inflation probably did not drive bottom line as accounting profit and loss isnt just credits...... they arnt allowed to do single sided entries... unless it tagged...
For Bars latest
We downgrade our rating on Turners Automotive (TRA) to NEUTRAL from OUTPERFORM. TRA has re-rated by c.+50% over the past 12 months to 14.4x 12-month forward EPS—more than two standard deviations above its long-run average of ~10x. While we view this as well-deserved recognition of TRA's improving business fundamentals and track record of execution, the risk–reward picture now appears more balanced. We remain constructive on TRA's medium-term opportunity (FY25–FY28 EPS CAGR of +10%), but meaningful earnings upgrades will likely be required for TRA to continue its material outperformance (+85% versus the NZX50 over the past year). We see this as unlikely, given: (1) we and consensus already expect TRA to achieve its FY28 NPBT target one year early, and (2) the consumer environment in New Zealand remains suppressed, limiting upside.
What's changed?
Target price: Rises +10cps to NZ$7.40 on roll-forward, equivalent to 15.0x 12-month forward PE.
Rating: Downgraded to NEUTRAL from OUTPERFORM.
Re-rate a deserving reflection of TRA's quality and management execution
TRA's multiple expansion reflects market recognition of: (1) improving business quality—characterised by higher margins, higher returns, growing brand awareness, increased market share, and reduced risk in its Finance Book; and (2) a building track record of impressive execution (10-year CAGR of ~+10% for normalised EPS and DPS). While we have advocated for this re-rate to occur, TRA is now trading at a ~+10% premium to our blended peer group of automotive dealers and NZ retail peers, which we view as broadly fair in light of its idiosyncratic business qualities (higher margin and lower volatility) and earnings resilience through the cycle.
Consensus expects TRA's NZ$65m NPBT target to be achieved earlier
We and consensus expect TRA to achieve its FY28 NPBT target of >NZ$65m in FY27. Although TRA expressed confidence in achieving this target earlier, at its FY25 result, we see earnings risk as balanced, with strong levels of execution now baked into market expectations. Continued earnings upgrades will likely be needed to drive further share price momentum.
Consumer environment still challenging, no notable change in volumes in our sales tracker
A stronger-than-expected improvement in consumer sentiment is the key upside risk to our forecasts. However, recent data points and commentary from retail industry participants suggest a persistently challenging consumer environment, with limited evidence of a sustained recovery. Concurrently, our sales tracker shows only a modest improvement in TRA's sales volumes thus far in FY26.
Engine fully revved: time to shift back into NEUTRAL
TRA has delivered five consecutive years of record earnings and +85% outperformance (in total return) versus the NZX50 over the past 12 months. But with the stock now trading at 14.4x forward PE—more than two standard deviations above its historical average—we believe the risk–reward profile is more balanced. The market is already pricing in delivery of the NZ$65m FY28 NPBT target one year early, and further multiple expansion likely requires upgrades or a macro tailwind. With consumer conditions still subdued and TRA now trading at only a modest discount to the NZ market PE (~10%), we downgrade to NEUTRAL. We remain constructive on TRA's medium-term opportunity and ability to execute.
EPS* (NZc) 43.3 47.9 52.9 57.4
DPS (NZc) 29.0 32.5 36.0 39.5
EPS and DPS growth still look solid .
Forward PE reducing.
PE 16.4 14.8 13.4 12.4
Quote from: Greekwatchdog on Jul 04, 2025, 08:03 AMFor Bars latest
We downgrade our rating on Turners Automotive (TRA) to NEUTRAL from OUTPERFORM. TRA has re-rated by c.+50% over the past 12 months to 14.4x 12-month forward EPS—more than two standard deviations above its long-run average of ~10x. While we view this as well-deserved recognition of TRA's improving business fundamentals and track record of execution, the risk–reward picture now appears more balanced. We remain constructive on TRA's medium-term opportunity (FY25–FY28 EPS CAGR of +10%), but meaningful earnings upgrades will likely be required for TRA to continue its material outperformance (+85% versus the NZX50 over the past year). We see this as unlikely, given: (1) we and consensus already expect TRA to achieve its FY28 NPBT target one year early, and (2) the consumer environment in New Zealand remains suppressed, limiting upside.
What's changed?
Target price: Rises +10cps to NZ$7.40 on roll-forward, equivalent to 15.0x 12-month forward PE.
Rating: Downgraded to NEUTRAL from OUTPERFORM.
Re-rate a deserving reflection of TRA's quality and management execution
TRA's multiple expansion reflects market recognition of: (1) improving business quality—characterised by higher margins, higher returns, growing brand awareness, increased market share, and reduced risk in its Finance Book; and (2) a building track record of impressive execution (10-year CAGR of ~+10% for normalised EPS and DPS). While we have advocated for this re-rate to occur, TRA is now trading at a ~+10% premium to our blended peer group of automotive dealers and NZ retail peers, which we view as broadly fair in light of its idiosyncratic business qualities (higher margin and lower volatility) and earnings resilience through the cycle.
Consensus expects TRA's NZ$65m NPBT target to be achieved earlier
We and consensus expect TRA to achieve its FY28 NPBT target of >NZ$65m in FY27. Although TRA expressed confidence in achieving this target earlier, at its FY25 result, we see earnings risk as balanced, with strong levels of execution now baked into market expectations. Continued earnings upgrades will likely be needed to drive further share price momentum.
Consumer environment still challenging, no notable change in volumes in our sales tracker
A stronger-than-expected improvement in consumer sentiment is the key upside risk to our forecasts. However, recent data points and commentary from retail industry participants suggest a persistently challenging consumer environment, with limited evidence of a sustained recovery. Concurrently, our sales tracker shows only a modest improvement in TRA's sales volumes thus far in FY26.
Engine fully revved: time to shift back into NEUTRAL
TRA has delivered five consecutive years of record earnings and +85% outperformance (in total return) versus the NZX50 over the past 12 months. But with the stock now trading at 14.4x forward PE—more than two standard deviations above its historical average—we believe the risk–reward profile is more balanced. The market is already pricing in delivery of the NZ$65m FY28 NPBT target one year early, and further multiple expansion likely requires upgrades or a macro tailwind. With consumer conditions still subdued and TRA now trading at only a modest discount to the NZ market PE (~10%), we downgrade to NEUTRAL. We remain constructive on TRA's medium-term opportunity and ability to execute.
Thanks Greekwatchdog. Out of interest, are these updates freely available or do you need to be a client of Forbar?
Quote from: Dolcile on Jul 04, 2025, 10:52 AMThanks Greekwatchdog. Out of interest, are these updates freely available or do you need to be a client of Forbar?
No problem, pretty sure you need account.
Quote from: lorraina on Jul 04, 2025, 08:19 AMEPS* (NZc) 43.3 47.9 52.9 57.4
DPS (NZc) 29.0 32.5 36.0 39.5
EPS and DPS growth still look solid .
Forward PE reducing.
PE 16.4 14.8 13.4 12.4
Agree 100% and happy to hold and enjoy the ongoing CAGR in EPS of ~ 10% per annum as well as the very good fully imputed quarterly dividends.
Regarding the PE ratio... Clearly the business is now far more diversified, far more resilient and has a great track record of delivering EPS growth. Surely this justifies the two SD compared to historic averages. This does not concern me one bit.
Remember the lost list of companies I posted that have grown eps by a CAGR of 10% over the last decade that are trading at a PE under 18.5 ;)
Here's another complete list of companies trading on a PE less than 20 that have grown EPS by a CAGR of over 12% over the last 5 years
.
.
.
None except TRA.
With regard to Forsyth Barr moving to neutral after an 85% outperformance against the NZX over the last year, I would simply comment that the stock was very, very badly mispriced this time last year, something I actioned when buying more at just under $4. Something that was an extraordinary opportunity as a buy a year ago has become a very attractive hold for the long term, in my opinion. Forsyth Barr comment its 10% above its peer group. I think it deserves to be considerably higher because of the vastly better growth rate and quality of the management team.
Quote from: Basil on Jul 03, 2025, 05:58 PMYou raise a fair point KW that inflation has certainly been a material factor over that period with some years over 7% per annum but according to the RBNZ inflation calculator the cumulative compound inflation from Q1 2020 to Q1 2025 totaled 23.48% and Turners earnings per share grew 77.46%. Yes it was a material percentage but I would draw your attention to what is arguably the best other retailer on the NZX that trades on a PE of 19.2, that being Briscoes. Its eps actually declined from 28 cps to 27 cps over that 5 year period with the loss in earnings due to inflation on top of that.
Briscoes is certainly not alone in that regard, in fact, many other companies on the NZX hardly grew earnings at all or had an earnings decline over what was arguably the most challenging 5 year period of trading conditions in our lifetime. To grow EPS by 77.46% over that period is a real stand-out achievement in my view and I really look forward to them kicking some serious financial goals when the economy eventually climbs its way out of the moribund state its in.
Prices rocketed by 35% just over the lockdown period. And being car prices, they can go down as easily as they can go up. More to the point, past performance in a high inflation period is not an indicator of future performance in a deflationary environment.
https://www.autocar.co.nz/report-nzs-used-car-prices-skyrocket-by-35/
Quote from: KW on Jul 04, 2025, 06:17 PMPrices rocketed by 35% just over the lockdown period. And being car prices, they can go down as easily as they can go up.
They have already corrected down just like they have for a lot of other assets like campervans, boats and houses. Notwithstanding that and Todd saying that trading conditions last winter were worse than during the GFC, Turners produced its fifth consecutive record annual profit.
https://figure.nz/chart/0ByKhsHZZX7N8W2x-NoqpJaAW5J40VuaO
lock down has long gone... a recession came next ... turners dont look like they have luxury auction site... sure they will keep costs under control...
Quote from: Waltzing on Jul 05, 2025, 09:56 AMlock down has long gone... a recession came next ... turners dont look like they have luxury auction site... sure they will keep costs under control...
What is cost to gross margin ratio for Turners waltz ...is it getting better?
we havnt put the last 5 years through the AI work flow.... oh hang we dont have one of those... do we...ill go ask tech..
its the one to watch winner...all those add on businesses .. but if the economy improves and that is a big if...then we will see..
could struggle here for while.. news news news....
Something I have been playing with.....it uses historical earnings. Pick a number for the high and low PE range. TRA share price is up there versus historical averages, but that may be Mr Market expecting further EPS growth.
TRA PE Ratio 2025 - Copy.JPG
No doubting Turners consistently do well
Sales are growing steadily, consistently achieving 11%/12% ROE and payout about 60% of profits in dividends
Result is that although EPS growth is 9.5%pa the high payout ratio contributes to Book Value (Shareholder Equity) only growing at about 5% pa over last few years
The other day TRA P/B ratio was 2.2 times ....I reckon this is far to high for a retail/finance company that's only growing equity at 5% per year.
Maybe share price is currently reverting to a more realistic level..... which probably about Ferg's midpoint
Is P/B really a useful measure when the book values include land and buildings at Cost not Market Value and there is significant intangible asset value, like brand, that isn't on the balance sheet.
Genuine question.
Quote from: Dolcile on Jul 10, 2025, 04:54 PMIs P/B really a useful measure when the book values include land and buildings at Cost not Market Value and there is significant intangible asset value, like brand, that isn't on the balance sheet.
Genuine question.
Agree with the property but .....wonder what the difference is?
They do have $163m of intangibles on the books ...mainly brand and goodwill....do you thinkmitbshould be more?
Thanks Ferg. Clearly shows that earnings were going nowhere in the late 2010's and then in the 2020's the Tina campaign was launched and has been completely transformational with EPS growing at a CAGR of 12% for the last 5 years and you're quite right, the analysts covering Turners expect growth to continue at a very similar rate in the years ahead. TRA shares trade ex the 9 cent fully imputed dividend tomorrow.
Briscoes with no growth on a PE of 19.5. Eagers Automotive with modest growth on a PE of 23. TRA with its much superior growth rate on tomorrow's theoretical ex divvy price of $6.79 trade on 12.8 times next years (FY27) forecast earnings. Hmmm...and some people reckon its on a stretched PE. They're entitled to their opinion but I don't agree.
Quote from: Dolcile on Jul 10, 2025, 04:54 PMIs P/B really a useful measure when the book values include land and buildings at Cost not Market Value and there is significant intangible asset value, like brand, that isn't on the balance sheet.
Genuine question.
P/B and PE are related
P/B = Shareprice / Equity
PE = Shareprice / Earnings
Earnings = Equity x ROE
Give them an algebraic shuffle and see what you come up
EPS and the EPS growth rate is what matters. Also relevant for many investors is DPS which ahs been growing at a CAGR of 14% per annum in the last decade, a rate unmatched by any other company on the NZX.
Salt Long Short Fund. 3 or their 5 largest long positions are N.Z. companies, Tower, Turners and Genesis, see bottom right of page 1. Disc: I also hold significant positions in those three.
https://www.saltfunds.co.nz/_files/ugd/9b51d8_5fc4a121039746f0974d47cfa4c58042.pdf
Although I love strong eps growth core improving a business is worth noting.
In ChCh Turners had one large retail site which was tucked away.
Now they have three fantastic high profile sites,which puts Turners in the right place for years to come.
They are improving their sites right around the country.
Better sites will lead to more cars being offered to them,more cars sold ,which in turn leads to higher finance and insurance sales.
Their business model is very simply yet very clever.
Ex divvy tomorrow. ;)
One reason for Briscoes trading at much higher multiples than Turners is that they have a much higher ROE
Briscoes ROE been 25%/30% last few years v Turners 11%/12%
Means something
Leasing stores instead of owning them. Same reason HLG has such a flash ROE.
Means nothing if it doesn't translate to higher EPS and DPS. (It does for HLG as they have a huge runway of growth in Australia.)
HLG growing earnings on a forward PE of 11, Briscoes shrinking earnings on a PE of 19. Hmmm
Well Turners have certainly made heaps with their very astute property deals.
Each time they buy and develop a site they retain the development margin.
Great use of part of their insurance company's float.
personally I don't mind if we see a pull back / some SP weakness. I'd like to buy some more.
Dealer to public sales up 14% in June, strongest gain in ages. As usual, the "Tina effect" will result in ongoing market share gains on top of that.
https://www.turners.co.nz/globalassets/terms-and-conditions/market-report-cars---June-2025.pdf
Also note public to dealer sales have been up very strongly the last 2 months, ~ 17% so the message that we love buying cars is getting through !
At $6.71 Turners trades on just 12.7 times forecast next years EPS of 52.9 cps and has been growing at a 12% CAGR since the Tina campaign kicked off and is forecast to do similar in the years ahead. Compelling buying at the current level in my opinion.
if there is no drop off in performance stats over the next 2 years and the PL holds up and debt stays at same levels... percentage to NP then the P/E could take a prem rate...
please note for those wanting to use AI to run over reports Anthropic have increased document project sizes - this annual report took about 12 percent of a project..
AI is actually better for general reports than for software projects which it finds very difficult..
Ai will not be replacing programmers but it seems to be better at consuming reports ...
have sent the summary for reading...
Many thanks for sending it to me mate. I reckon A.I. is getting bloody good !! I think if it could value stocks on the NZX it would rate TRA as a BUY !
QuoteAI Research of TRA (Turners Automotive Group) financial performance since 2019 and their 2028 profit targets, here's the analysis:
Current Performance vs 2028 Target
2028 Target: $65M Net Profit Before Tax (NPBT)
Historical NPBT Performance:
FY19: $29.0M ($33.6M excluding one-offs)
FY21: ~$34M (upgraded guidance range $33-35M)
FY22: ~$43.0M
FY23: $45.5M (+6% growth)
FY24: $49.1M (+8% growth)
FY25: $54.3M (+11% growth)
Growth Trajectory Analysis
Required Growth to Target:
From FY25 ($54.3M) to FY28 ($65M) = $10.7M increase needed
Average annual growth required: ~6.5% over next 3 years
Historical Growth Performance:
FY19-FY25 compound annual growth rate: ~10.1%
Recent 3-year average growth (FY23-FY25): 8.3%
Most recent momentum: 11% growth in FY25
Probability Assessment: HIGH
Supporting Factors:
Consistent Track Record: Turners has delivered record financial results in FY25, with the company describing this as "a decade of sustainable growth" NZXNZ Autocar
Strong Current Position: The company expects to meet or exceed its FY28 goal of $65m NPBT ahead of schedule Turners Automotive Group posts record $38.6m net profit - NZ Autocar
Diversified Revenue Streams: Multiple business segments performing well:
Auto Retail: Strong market share growth with branch expansion
Finance: 31% profit growth in FY25
Insurance: 13% profit growth
Credit Management: 11% profit growth
Strategic Initiatives: The company is in a "build phase" for its next growth push with new branch developments and market expansion NZX, New Zealand's Exchange - Announcements, Turners Delivers Record Fy24 And Lays Out Future Road Map
Market Position: Turners is "increasingly seen as the leading brand in the used car market" with strong competitive advantages Autofile - News / Record earnings for Turners
Risk Factors:
Economic uncertainty and interest rate environment
Used car market cyclicality
Consumer spending pressures
Conclusion: The probability of TRA reaching their $65M NPBT target by FY28 is VERY HIGH (85-90%). The company has demonstrated:
Consistent historical growth exceeding target requirements
Strong recent momentum with 11% growth in FY25
Management confidence in achieving targets ahead of schedule
Diversified business model providing earnings resilience
Clear strategic roadmap for continued expansion
The required 6.5% annual growth to target is well below their historical performance, suggesting the target is achievable even in more challenging economic conditions.
FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE REVIEW - TURNERS AUTOMOTIVE GROUP FY25
Profit & Loss Variance Analysis: Despite revenue declining 0.8% to $412.9m, Turners delivered strong profit growth with gross profit up 2.7% and operating profit surging 10.8% to $54.5m. Net profit after tax increased 17.1% to $38.6m, demonstrating effective cost management and operational leverage.
Profitability Ratios - Significant Improvement:
Gross margin expanded 200 basis points to 59.4%
Operating margin improved 140 basis points to 13.2%
Net margin increased 140 basis points to 9.3%
Return on equity strengthened from 11.8% to 12.9%
Return on assets improved from 3.8% to 4.2%
Balance Sheet Growth & Strength: Total assets grew 6.0% to $918m, with finance receivables (core lending business) expanding 3.9% to $447m. Cash position strengthened 25.8% to $22m, while total equity increased 7.3% to $298m.
Capital Structure Enhancement:
Debt-to-equity ratio improved from 1.53x to 1.49x
Equity ratio strengthened marginally to 32.5%
Interest coverage improved from 1.8x to 2.0x
Borrowings increased 4.9% to $446m, maintaining controlled leverage
Shareholder Returns:
Earnings per share grew 15.0% to 43.4¢
Dividend per share increased 13.7% to 29¢
Payout ratio remained stable at 66.9%
Key Observations: The financial results demonstrate Turners' resilience through economic downturn, with margin expansion offsetting revenue decline. The company maintained disciplined capital allocation while growing its core finance receivables book and strengthening its balance sheet position. Strong cash generation supported both dividend growth and capital investment.
Very happy to be participating in the drp and picking up more shares at $6.61
Quote from: Dolcile on Jul 18, 2025, 10:19 AMVery happy to be participating in the drp and picking up more shares at $6.61
Likewise.
I wish I was able to attend, it should be a good event.
The one question, I wouldn't mind posing though, surrounds the auditor tenure. Baker Tilly have been in the seat for a long time and presumably this is one of their larger audits.
Quote from: Dolcile on Jul 21, 2025, 01:58 PMI wish I was able to attend, it should be a good event.
The one question, I wouldn't mind posing though, surrounds the auditor tenure. Baker Tilly have been in the seat for a long time and presumably this is one of their larger audits.
Can you clarify Dolcile? What is your query re the auditors?
I guess the question is, when was the last time Turners went through a competitive audit tender process? I understand outside of NZ, most countries have a limit on the number of consecutive years an audit firm can be appointed - and that audit firm rotation (within reason) promotes quality.
Thanks Dolcile
I wonder if people associate Chair Baker with Baker Tilly? Of course there's no connection
The downward trend in dealer numbers continues:
https://autofile.co.nz/dealer-numbers-at-13-year-low-
Quote from: Pierre on Jul 24, 2025, 01:03 PMThe downward trend in dealer numbers continues:
https://autofile.co.nz/dealer-numbers-at-13-year-low-
What's the definition of a dealer in this repor - anindividual or a business
Its hard to compete with Turners. My understanding Winner, which is out of date so may no longer apply, is that if you buy and sell more than 6 vehicles a year you have to register as a car trader / dealer.
Quote from: winner (n) on Jul 24, 2025, 01:09 PMWhat's the definition of a dealer in this repor - anindividual or a business
In New Zealand, any individual or company whose business involves trading motor vehicles must register on the Motor Vehicle Traders Register (MVTR). This includes importers, car auctioneers, car consultants, wholesalers, and even companies like insurance or finance companies that sell vehicles directly to the public.
Selling more than 6 vehicles in a 12-month period will require registration.
So Turners is 1 of 2,633 dealers
And they have >10% market share
Cool
Quote from: winner (n) on Jul 24, 2025, 04:36 PMSo Turners is 1 of 2,633 dealers
And they have >10% market share
Cool
A search of the MVTR shows Turners Fleet Ltd and Turners Group NZ Ltd are both registered Traders.
So, 2 Turners entities out of 2633 dealers hold ~10% market share.
That definitely is cool.
Individual branches don't appear to be counted in the total # of dealers.
Just a quick note. Don't believe the depth. I get the feeling it is not the true depth. I did a depth test and there was about 380 at 6.79 sitting there for an hour or more. My plan was to quickly buy that 380 and then immediately drop my buy price back to 6.77, but the whole 3000 went through at 6.77. It is not just on the TRA depth but has happened on many other company depths. To depth or not to depth.
Quote from: seaweed on Jul 25, 2025, 01:45 PMJust a quick note. Don't believe the depth. I get the feeling it is not the true depth. I did a depth test and there was about 380 at 6.79 sitting there for an hour or more. My plan was to quickly buy that 380 and then immediately drop my buy price back to 6.77, but the whole 3000 went through at 6.77. It is not just on the TRA depth but has happened on many other company depths. To depth or not to depth.
Hi Seaweed, it's called an Iceberg order. When loading it you will put in volume to sell say 150,000, then amount to show 7500 say and you can get it to vary that amount by various percentages say plus,minus 15 % . So as soon as you
try and purchase more than is on offer the machine reloads the next sell portion and fills your order ....
Always a bit of fun when someone loads an Iceberg buy against an iceberg sell ........
Quote from: Stoploss on Jul 25, 2025, 02:48 PMHi Seaweed, it's called an Iceberg order. When loading it you will put in volume to sell say 150,000, then amount to show 7500 say and you can get it to vary that amount by various percentages say plus,minus 15 % . So as soon as you
try and purchase more than is on offer the machine reloads the next sell portion and fills your order ....
Always a bit of fun when someone loads an Iceberg buy against an iceberg sell ........
Wow, I have heard of Fatbergs. Will be more patient in the future and not be in too much of a hurry to full order and let it sit there all day. Had two other orders in different companies and just wanted get back to them smartly.
Great buying at this level for long term growth in earnings and dividends in my opinion..
I have a bonus being paid in the next few weeks - if nothing else takes my fancy it might have to be a few more TRA - hopefully for some positive news at the AGM.
Maybe a bit early to know how they are trading in Christchurch,but moving from one big third rate retail site to three first rate retail sites [and talking of a fourth] certainly augers well for their foreseeable future.
That old site wasn't 3rd rate. It was great and held a lot of vehicles.
2CC have lousy little sites dotted all over.
I like to browse
My 2 cents on the subject is I know Turners have done a lot of work around determining the optimum sized sites in terms of customer appeal as well as work on optimizing the locations. Some of their former sites like the one at Penrose they ran their auctions from are simply too big. From memory, they've ascertained the optimum size is around about 10,000 sq meters.
Quote from: mike2023 on Jul 26, 2025, 02:04 PMThat old site wasn't 3rd rate. It was great and held a lot of vehicles.
2CC have lousy little sites dotted all over.
I like to browse
I take it you never visited Turner's old Christchurch site.Basically set up for auctions and wholesale.
New sites are in prime locations.
Think you will like 2CC's Sylvia Park site when it opens next month.
Today most car buyers like to browse on line.
Quote from: Basil on Jul 26, 2025, 02:33 PMMy 2 cents on the subject is I know Turners have done a lot of work around determining the optimum sized sites in terms of customer appeal as well as work on optimizing the locations. Some of their former sites like the one at Penrose they ran their auctions from are simply too big. From memory, they've ascertained the optimum size is around about 10,000 sq meters.
I remember going to the Mc Nab st site years ago and very hard to find parking. Then they moved to Gavin st a lot bigger and more parking and two auctions going at the same time very well run and bought a few cars from there over the years. Yet to visit the Gt South rd site and will pop in for a look next time going past.
Part of Turners' retail location strategy is to be close to people selling their cars.
Signage with "Want to sell your car?..Cash now " means Turners are in a stronger position to source cars.
Although they import a few they prefer to buy locally.
Quote from: lorraina on Jul 26, 2025, 12:15 PMMaybe a bit early to know how they are trading in Christchurch,but moving from one big third rate retail site to three first rate retail sites [and talking of a fourth] certainly augers well for their foreseeable future.
Great timing to be expanding their branch network in the south island. https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/360771216/south-surges-while-north-stalls-kiwibank-warns-growing-economic-divide
Turners new Christchurch Airport site now has a lot full of cars. Cant be far off from opening.
Early next month mate. I think I recall Todd mentioned on the other channel the official opening is on the 6th. In FY27 they'll get the full 12 months benefit of the new sites opened this year.
Quote from: lorraina on Jul 26, 2025, 03:28 PMI take it you never visited Turner's old Christchurch site.Basically set up for auctions and wholesale.
New sites are in prime locations.
Think you will like 2CC's Sylvia Park site when it opens next month.
Today most car buyers like to browse on line.
I bought a couple of cars there. Watched their auctions often. No longer in Christchurch. I will have a look next time I'm there.
Tina is back to charging $7 per hug. :)
and its amazing considering this!!! what a shocker and surely its stagflation or boarding on it...
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/call-for-government-to-help-auckland-as-unemployment-rises/4GHK7KPMRVHLDH4LXZLBJ5N3JY/
will there ever be a recovery?
Is this the high water mark for this stock if there is no recovery or is NO Recovery a sweet spot for future growth... High unemployment means fewer new cars brought...
RBNZ set to cut interest rates by 25 bps on 20 August.
Tina told me she's charging $8.50 per hug next year ;)
Quote from: Basil on Aug 07, 2025, 12:37 PMRBNZ set to cut interest rates by 25 bps on 20 August.
Tina told me she's charging $8.50 per hug next year ;)
Mike Hosking reckons 2.5% OCR early next year
He's a well connected guru
Media will get you your wish
Friend of mine is buying a new MG hybrid,and was offered $5000 for his wife's Suzuki Swift as a trade in.
Turners at Wairakei Road are only a short drive from his house,therefore he went and offered it to them.
$7,500.He as full of praise for Turners professionalism and the fact they said he could put the car into one of their auctions.Cost $200 to groom it and most probably $800 commission.He decided to accept their cash offer which would be in his bank a/c overnight.
Excellent friendly helpful staff.
Turners annual meeting next Thursday. I am hoping to attend. Should be a very happy vibe.
Looking forward to the trading update, (dealer to public sales up 9.7% YTD, and will be on better margins than the dreadful winter last year too and also TRA market share gains on top of that), https://www.turners.co.nz/globalassets/terms-and-conditions/market-report-cars---July-2025.pdf
I can't think of a single thing to bark about lol Looking forward to giving Todd and Aaron a pat on the back, they deserve it.
Quote from: Basil on Aug 16, 2025, 10:00 AMI can't think of a single thing to bark about lol Looking forward to giving Todd and Aaron a pat on the back, they deserve it.
And een return, In 'zome other place' I read zhat Todd has promised zhere vill be a cardboard cut out of Tina in attendence, vhich you can hug. You must be looking forward to zhat!
RB
Positive forward guidance in Turners ASM presentation great to see. Business momentum strong and finance earnings well placed to grow with increasing book and lower OCR.
Guidance
• The economy is still patchy and consumer confidence has declined since Liberation Day. Interest rates are still restrictive and unemployment is increasing.
• Despite these challenges we are still expecting a record first half performance, HY26 NPBT expected to be at least +10% ahead.
• Still on track to achieve our mid-term target of $65M NPBT in FY28 early.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/457153 (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/457153)
Very impressive !!
What other established NZ business is growing earnings at 10%??
My firm view is that with the OCR continuing to trend down, it makes the 5.9% gross yield (and growing) very attractive when combined with the future growth prospects.
Discl, topped up a few more this morning.
Well no agm news from Basil.
I guess he is at home resting up after Tina danced his legs off boogie wooging...lol
Quote from: Dolcile on Aug 21, 2025, 10:27 AMWhat other established NZ business is growing earnings at 10%??
FPH, IFT, ATM ..... for a start.
A very positive annual meeting indeed. Presentation is here https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/457153/attachment/450029/457153-450029.pdf
I can't recall the Turners team being so positive so early in the financial year. Guidance for earnings growth of at least 10% in the first half at this point means they must be super confident of exceeding that, given their prior pattern of conservative forecasting. Further, that's with the headwind of the $600K launch of the Tina Mk2 marketing campaign, restrictive interest rate settings and only a very short period of trading from their new Christchurch car yards.
Its clear from the presentation that they expect strong benefits to flow in the 2H from those factors and without the extra $600K marketing spend.
Those that attended or watched online would have seen an extremely rare phenomenon, never seen before at any annual meeting. A Beagle with nothing to bark about so he purred like a contented cat lol It was nice to thank the board and management for their sterling efforts over the years. Another speaker at the end said it far more eloquently than I.
Snippets worth noting.
I asked Todd is his appointment to the board in any way signaled that he was starting to run out of gas as the CEO. He assured attendees that even after 19 years with Turners he still had a full tank of gas and was really relishing his role with Turners. Why would I leave when I love what I'm doing so much, or words to that effect. So no worries there.
Tina is all locked up on a long term exclusive contract. I asked for more colour around the nuances between the marketing campaigns of Tina Mk1 v Tina Mk2 and Greg Hedgepeth (might have spelled his name wrong) explained they had filmed 4 years worth of marketing before Tina left for Samoa and we had only seen the first of 9 television advertisements under the new Tina Mk2 campaign. Watch this space... plenty more to come.
Turners is performing ahead of where even I thought it would.
Summary - An extremely well managed business continuing its well proven growth journey on very attractive metrics. I couldn't be happier about how Turners is being managed. Disc: Has been my #1 investment position for quite some time.
Well said Basil.
The 10% growth is really quite remarkable in the face of those headwinds you set out, plus in addition I think I heard Todd say they also incurred additional cost/inefficiency in moving from 1 to 3 locations in CHCH. Outstanding!
Imagine what happens when the economy is actually growing.
Quote from: Dolcile on Aug 21, 2025, 08:38 PMImagine what happens when the economy is actually growing.
Indeed, exactly that very pleasant thought occupied a fair bit of my headspace after the meeting yesterday. Interestingly the CFO Aaron Saunders vented a bit of frustration at the RBNZ and said he thought they had got the previous call really wrong, (the one before this weeks 25 bps reduction). Also went on to note the cash rate was 1.75% in 2019 before Covid and that we definitely had a two speed economy and even the current rate after this weeks cut means we have a "restrictive" monetary policy setting, or words to that effect..
Its interesting to note that 2 of the committee members at the RBNZ voted for a 50 bps cut this week. Therefore, it seems clear another cut in October and then again in late November is on the cards. Every cut adds just over $1m per annum profit based on a previous discussion I have had with Todd.
This time next year the economy might finally be growing and Tina who is sick of being a cheap hussy and dishing out hugs for ~ $7 might finally be charging an appropriate price of $9-$10 ;)
if the US dollar strengthen's then sure OIL stays up but the so called one off costs of TF's are statistical as the impact rolls off the data and is smoothed over time but someone still wears the cost every time!! Its just the stats dont show it as the effects on the economy may be smoothed by other factors... BUT it still there.. its a GST rate of 10 percent or MORE that may or may not be passed on to the customers and cant be deducted back by the companies hit by it.
US debt would have to come down a lot before it hits the NZ dollar?
Ok that means the RESERVED BANK wont cut until it far to late ... after it kick the economy in the guts ... At the bottom of the world we add up numbers slower than where its warmer...
Forsyth Barr's forecasts from 27 May 2025 after the FY25 result. Price target $7.30, subsequently updated to $7.40
FY26 EPS 48.0 DPS 32.5 cps Forward PE at $6.88 14.3 Gross Yield 6.6%
FY27 EPS 52.9 DPS 36.0 Forward + 1 PE 13.0 Gross Yield 7.3%
FY28 EPS 57.4 DPS 39.5 Forward + 2 PE 12.0 Gross Yield 8.0%
After attending the annual meeting, reviewing the presentation materials and discussing things with management afterwards I am optimistic that TRA are going to beat those forecasts.
P.S. Todd mentioned in the annual meeting they'd recently invested a total of ~ $36m on their 3 new car yards in Christchurch. As these were new, finished and available for first use after 22 May 2025, it would appear they are eligible for the new 20% investment boost tax deduction. https://www.ird.govt.nz/income-tax/income-tax-for-businesses-and-organisations/types-of-business-expenses/new-assets---investment-boost At a rough guess, (assuming approx. 60% the cost of each site is for the commercial buildings), my estimate is that could reduce their tax bill such that their after tax income is increased by ~ $1.2m, or approx 1.3 cps in FY26. $1.2m should cover most of the filming costs, (for the next 4 years worth of advertisements they have created) and the marketing launch costs of the new Tina Mk2 marketing campaign. How cool is that !
For Bars latest, 22nd Aug 25
Turners Automotive (TRA) used its 2025 ASM to underline confidence in continuing earnings growth despite ongoing consumer weakness. Management is guiding to at least +10% NPBT growth in 1H26, consistent with our 1H26 +11.7% growth forecast. Medium-term earnings growth will be supported by an ambitious growth pipeline, particularly through Auto Retail network expansion, as well as the scaling of Turners Servicing and Repairs (following its rebrand from MyAutoShop), while growing and maintaining credit discipline in Finance and margin control in Insurance. While TRA remains on track to deliver its NZ$65m FY28 NPBT goal ahead of schedule, this is already factored into our forecasts (FY27 NPBT of NZ$67.9m). We leave our earnings estimates unchanged and maintain our NZ$7.55 12-month target price. TRA is trading at ~14x 12-month forward PE, representing a fair premium to its long-run average of ~10x given its track record of execution, through-cycle growth, and solid forward earnings visibility. We retain our NEUTRAL rating.
H26 guidance in line, demand expected to improve in 2H26
TRA expects 1H26 NPBT growth of at least +10%, in line with our forecast of +11.7% in 1H26. The outlook reflects ongoing recovery in Auto Retail margins from a very weak 1H25 period, Finance book growth, and disciplined Insurance and Credit earnings. Despite consumer confidence remaining subdued, TRA's diversified model continues to provide resilience. TRA called out an improving outlook, stating it 'expects 2H26 to deliver stronger vehicle margins and volumes as overall demand improves'. Our web-scraper data suggests YTD unit sales are broadly flat on last year, while average selling prices are modestly ahead.
Expanding Auto Retail footprint and brand momentum
TRA's site network is expanding with several new Christchurch and regional sites already completed in FY26, alongside upcoming openings in Manukau and Tauranga. Management expects incremental PBT contribution of around +NZ$3.5m from the committed FY26–FY27 branch pipeline. TRA now owns 17 sites at a cost value of NZ$129m, funded by ~NZ$100m of borrowings. Competing dealer numbers continue to fall across NZ, reflecting the challenging environment and TRA's competitive scale. At the same time, new 'Tina from Turners' campaigns are driving engagement and reinforcing TRA's positioning as NZ's leading used-car retailer.
Finance momentum and diversified earnings
TRA's Finance receivables book grew +5% in the first four months of FY26, tracking towards our expectation of +12% growth for the full year. Finance arrears remain substantially below industry averages, with June 2025 arrears at 2.6% versus the Centrix Auto industry average of 5.4%. TRA continues to gain dealer and broker market share in Insurance, with outsourced comprehensive premiums (underwritten by Suncorp NZ) increasing +25% in FY25. Risk-based pricing discipline and expanding digital distribution are delivering promising outcomes. Credit Management continues to benefit from rising debt-referral volumes.
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/457377/attachment/450362/457377-450362.pdf
Nothing new in here that I can see that wasn't shared at the annual meeting but for whatever reason, Turners chose to release this announcement, marked price sensitive. Maybe the board and management who combined own circa 30% of Turners are sick of seeing Tina giving away hugs for under $7 each lol
Quote from: Basil on Aug 23, 2025, 07:20 PMP.S. Todd mentioned in the annual meeting they'd recently invested a total of ~ $36m on their 3 new car yards in Christchurch. As these were new, finished and available for first use after 22 May 2025, it would appear they are eligible for the new 20% investment boost tax deduction. https://www.ird.govt.nz/income-tax/income-tax-for-businesses-and-organisations/types-of-business-expenses/new-assets---investment-boost At a rough guess, (assuming approx. 60% the cost of each site is for the commercial buildings), my estimate is that could reduce their tax bill such that their after tax income is increased by ~ $1.2m, or approx 1.3 cps in FY26. $1.2m should cover most of the filming costs, (for the next 4 years worth of advertisements they have created) and the marketing launch costs of the new Tina Mk2 marketing campaign. How cool is that !
Great point on the investment boost, Basil. I'm surprised it wasn't mentioned at the AGM or in the update. Makes me worry that perhaps they aren't eligible.
I'd just like to point out that CMO is trading at 13x FY25 profit, with no future guidance. Whereas, Turners is trading at 13.5x forecast FY28 earnings (which are expected to be reached early).
Personally I think Turners deserves are higher multiple based on track record and recessionary resilience.
Quote from: Dolcile on Aug 25, 2025, 10:43 AMGreat point on the investment boost, Basil. I'm surprised it wasn't mentioned at the AGM or in the update. Makes me worry that perhaps they aren't eligible.
When I get back to the office I'll flick Todd an email.
Legend, thanks Basil.
Todd was very gracious in responding quickly. He advised that most of the cost is in the land. 2 of the 3 new sites are eligible. Tax advantage should cover most of the $600K cost of launching the new Tina Mk2 campaign. As posted earlier, there are 9 different advertisements that have been created, only one of which we have seen to date in various guises of 90, 60 and 30 second configurations.
They expect this campaign to be just as enduring as the last one and last about 4 years so that's a lot of marketing Intellectual property that's been created, sitting in the "intellectual property bank" to be rolled out in due course. Very happy holder.
Thanks Basil - that's great intel.
Quote from: Basil on Aug 25, 2025, 05:24 PM.... As posted earlier, there are 9 different advertisements that have been created, only one of which we have seen to date in various guises of 90, 60 and 30 second configurations.
They expect this campaign to be just as enduring as the last one and last about 4 years so that's a lot of marketing Intellectual property that's been created, sitting in the "intellectual property bank" to be rolled out in due course. Very happy holder.
And not without a little controversy to spice things up..... this ad perhaps not so 'enduring.'
Media Insider: Tina from Turners ad - Advertising Standards Authority upholds complaint about car performing burnout......
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/media-insider/media-insider-tina-from-turners-ad-advertising-standards-authority-upholds-complaint-about-car-performing-burnout/UL4R5QWT45BHFPZBCONOKXSE3E/
Just a small pothole for Turners to navigate........ no big deal.
that tina ad on the radio advertising tractors and machinery is awful
suppose that's why it's so successful lol
I prefer the original Tina advertisements, (and I know I'm not alone from discussions with other attendees after the annual meeting). They clearly articulated, in a very creative way, concerns vendors may have that are pertinent to selling privately. (Recall the old couple driving off for a test drive in a Holden and not coming back and in another advertisement, the creepy looking guy looking in your window because he now knew where the seller lived).
Those were great advertisements. I'm not so sure about the new series but there's plenty more content to come, (including the use of an A.I. dog, easier to control than a real dog Todd quipped to me after the meeting and he's not wrong), so its probably too early to make a call on whether Tina Mk1 is better than Tina Mk2.
Quote from: winner (n) on Sep 09, 2025, 02:01 PMthat tina ad on the radio advertising tractors and machinery is awful
suppose that's why it's so successful lol
Yeah this is the worst ad...hurts my ears she high pitched squealing like a pig.
She might be selling tractors and diggers...but the engines aren't on...know need to shout
Used car stat's for August are out. Another strong month with public to dealer sales up 11.15% and dealer to public sales up 8.42% compared to August last year. https://www.turners.co.nz/globalassets/terms-and-conditions/market-report-cars---August-2025.pdf
These are great transaction numbers considering the woeful state of the economy.
Quote from: Basil on Sep 11, 2025, 04:37 PMUsed car stat's for August are out. Another strong month with public to dealer sales up 11.15% and dealer to public sales up 8.42% compared to August last year. https://www.turners.co.nz/globalassets/terms-and-conditions/market-report-cars---August-2025.pdf
These are great transaction numbers considering the woeful state of the economy.
.....and don't forget to allow for market share gains
Less competition for Turners and 2CC.
Auckland used car dealership Vehicle Direct and two associated companies have gone into liquidation and receivership, leaving creditors owed more than $5.7 million.
The companies — Vehicle Direct Ltd, Auto Trading Ltd and Auto Compliance & Repairs Ltd — were placed into liquidation on September 4 by special resolution of the shareholder, director Muhammad Waseem.
Westpac New Zealand is the largest secured creditor, with claims of just over $3.1 million across the three entities. Other secured lenders include Bizcap NZ ($119,462) and Heartland Bank ($64,835), with further exposure from EFCO, Go Car Finance and Ishfaq Bhatti Ltd (MTF Finance).
According to the liquidator's report, the companies faced sustained financial pressures, including an inability to recover costs, liabilities from guarantees, and "challenging economic conditions." Rising operating costs, increased competition, and a lack of sales left the dealership without sufficient working capital to continue trading.
Vehicle Direct operated from Great South Rd in Otahuhu, while Auto Trading Ltd imported and wholesaled vehicles, and Auto Compliance & Repairs Ltd — previously trading as VD Panel & Paint — provided repair and compliance services.
Alongside secured creditors, Inland Revenue is owed $427,564 by Vehicle Direct, $114,824 by Auto Trading, and $285,537 by Auto Compliance & Repairs. Employee entitlements across the group total more than $280,000, while unsecured creditors are collectively owed over $1.4m.
The liquidator, Mohammed Tazleen Nasib Jan of Liquidation Management Ltd, confirmed that the companies are party to pending legal proceedings. Assets such as stock and fixed property are under security agreements and have yet to be valued. Further investigations into the affairs of the companies will follow.
From the recent annual meeting presentation.
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/457153/attachment/450029/457153-450029.pdf
Page 22 shows the dealer numbers in freefall since 2018 and notice how the slope of the downward line has steepened in 2025 !
Page 13 is really interesting for dividend hounds like me. In the last decade Turners have grown dividends at a CAGR of 14% per annum ! That's unmatched by any company on the NZX.
One ingredient in the secret sauce that gives Turners a huge competitive advantage is because they're the biggest, they sell the most vehicles by far and have the most accurate market intelligence of what various makes and models of vehicles are really worth.
In time, there is a real possibility that Turners corners the entire market
Yes......
Quote from: Dolcile on Sep 13, 2025, 06:21 AMIn time, there is a real possibility that Turners corners the entire market
LOL. They've grown from about 4.5% before the Tina campaign first kicked off about 4-5 years ago to circa 9-10%, varies from month to month Aaron the CFO said at the annual meeting. I think they could have 14-15% of the market in ~ 5 years time.
RBNZ set to cut more quickly, deeper and stay really low for much longer after today's bad GDP. More tailwinds for TRA's finance book. I topped up with some more today. Another divvy due next month and 2 x interest rate cuts before the end of the year looking like almost a certainty, maybe one or both a jumbo 50 bps cut ? Interest on your call account will be almost nothing before Christmas. might as well invest it and get decent dividend returns that have grown at a 14%, (that's not a typo), CAGR for the last decade.
Next Div Annoucement soon? hitting over 7 today.. with according to SIR B OCR cuts coming thick and fast where is this heading by santa time?
Yes, next quarterly dividend should be announced soon, payable late October.
Next catalyst will be half year profit announcement late November. Directors are very conservative with profit guidance so it was a surprise to see them guiding at the annual meeting to at least a 10% increase this half. They must be supremely confident it will be at least 10% so this begs the question of how much more?
Also guiding to a stronger second half with 3 new branches at Christchurch.
Extremely well run business. Large holding.
Ha ha ...Tina's reach has stuffed 2CC
Watch this space they cry ....Turners better budget for share loss
From BusinessDesk
Extract -
Listed used car dealership 2 Cheap Cars says it is pulling in brand consultants amid a Turners marketing tearaway.
At the online annual meeting on Friday, 2 Cheap Cars' leadership were asked by a shareholder to explain the firm's branding strategy.
The shareholder cited Turners "very aggressive marketing strategy" and its efforts to "actively build brand awareness at the moment before the recovery next year".
In response, chief financial officer Angus Guerin said 2 Cheap Cars was "definitely trying to ramp up" its marketing strategy.
"We're looking at new ways to build our brand. We've engaged brand consultants, and that's coming to fruition. We should see some new stuff in the market within the next few months.
"So, watch this space."
Chair Michael Stiassny highlighted that the Tina from Turners adverts were focused on trying to get New Zealanders to sell their cars because margins are higher on NZ resales than on Japanese imported vehicles.
"The strategy that we're following of trying to buy local is clearly the same policy that they're following," he said.
Buyers starting to come to terms with having to pay $7+ for Turners.
Tina could be charging $9 a hug by late next year. ;)
9 handle... gosh...with in just over 12 months... massive...
Very nice work on tweaks to the employee share scheme. Its almost as if Todd read my mind as one of the things I forgot to ask when attending the recent annual meeting was is your staff share scheme really good enough ? Employees getting $1,500 of shares after 3 years but they have to pay for them all themselves, albeit with an interest free loan is not really much of an incentive is it ? My suggestion was going to be, is it worth raising that to $2,000 as to some people that's a decent amount of money whereas $1,500 feels a but miserly.
They've gone one better and only asking people to pay for half of the amount, $1,000 and get the other $1,000 of shares for free after 3 years service. Very smart move in my opinion and will lead to more staff engagement which I understand is already very high.
Detail is here https://www.nzx.com/announcements/460071 We must be due for a dividend announcement very shortly.
Very intelligent board and management who collectively own circa 30% of the business and are managing it extremely well.
Interesting volume after the close. Over $5m worth of stock transacted at $7.08.
I wonder how much the latest Ferrari cost.?,,,,,,,,,,,,.lol
Quote from: lorraina on Oct 03, 2025, 07:06 PMI wonder how much the latest Ferrari cost.?,,,,,,,,,,,,.lol
LOL It must be a special order one because the dearest on Trade me is less than 1 million. https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/motors/cars/ferrari/sf90/listing/5502430323
Maybe 1,000 horsepower and 340 km/hr is not fast enough or he's buying a few of them for Tina and senior management as well lol
Nice increase in the Q1 dividend to 7cps (Q1 2024: 6cps).
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/460100/attachment/453720/460100-453720.pdf
Yes, as I expected. They have recently invested ~ $36m capex on 3 new branches at Christchurch so I had no expectations it would be any more than 1 cent more than the previous period and its certainly impressive they raised it by a full cent in the context of that significant capex. I expect that pattern to continue throughout the year and Turners to pay approx 4 cps more in FY26 than the 29 cents they paid last year, a 13.8% uplift. That would continue their decade long dividend growth story with annual dividend growth being the best in market at an incredible 10 year CAGR of 14% !
I think the half year profit report late next month has a lot of potential to surprise to the upside. They must have been extremely confident to say profit growth of at least 10% at the annual meeting. They've never said anything like that before at any annual meeting to the best of my recollection. The open question is, how much more than 10% profit growth ? Keep in mind whatever growth is achieved has been against the backdrop of a very deep recession. I wonder how strongly they will start performing when the economy starts growing again ? I'm hoping the RBNZ can see the wood for the trees on Wednesday and cut 50 basis points and inject some desperately needed stimulus into the economy.
"very deep recession" amazing interview by several local you tubers one with a sociologist who said he cant recall when this number of skilled qualified NZ graduates were leaving the country..
It appears that the GD..p stats however they are tabulated may in fact be deeply flawed and the LEAKS AND LAGS in the system are far greater than the PROFESSIONALS at the RBNZ want to admit being that the whole country from Health Boards to Banks aggregate there data into single dimensional excel worksheets while and army of economists cut and paste data into models...
In the light of this unknown chasm of a depression the performance of this company is award winning....
Another strong month of used car transactions in Sept with dealer to public sales up 9.5% and public to dealer sales up 12.8%
https://www.turners.co.nz/globalassets/terms-and-conditions/market-report-cars---september-2025.pdf
Looking forward to TRA's half year report late next month and what should be a very strong second half with all three new branches in Christchurch up and trading for the full period 2H FY26.
Quote from: Basil on Oct 10, 2025, 11:50 AMAnother strong month of used car transactions in Sept with dealer to public sales up 9.5% and public to dealer sales up 12.8%
https://www.turners.co.nz/globalassets/terms-and-conditions/market-report-cars---september-2025.pdf
Looking forward to TRA's half year report late next month and what should be a very strong second half with all three new branches in Christchurch up and trading for the full period 2H FY26.
Market sales still growing strongly eh Basil
Add in market share gains ...I agree a very strong 2nd half likely
gosh do we have to back up the mini...
That OTHER thing.. cant really say GUY.. or SHELIA.. says the whole thing is down to the elephant in the room...
https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/5e0af8d8-6332-41b3-934c-8d396b18e6a9
Hey waltz, does your Claude work for Forbar ...or is it Craigs?
Does good work
Im not sure what your asking winner().Promptrequest(AI->Response('where Dat Come from'))
Its ours, i diverted a resource to run the document in one of OUR AI Accounts ...
AT Quantum D.... we are developing the software Machine which one day will house AI... This is not a class of software the public known about yet and probably never will..as its binding infrastructure, a new class of software..
as ive stated before here simula was created in the Scandi countries in the mid 1960s.. thats why Finland has the right number toilets in its underground car park bunkers not just in it malls...
AI ramblings on Oil prices and possible impact on NZX companies and TRA..
warning nothing checked on this one...
https://claude.ai/public/artifacts/56c9361a-ef17-4af0-a9c1-9248e1006de8
Quote from: Waltzing on Oct 11, 2025, 09:14 AMIm not sure what your asking winner().Promptrequest(AI->Response('where Dat Come from'))
Its ours, i diverted a resource to run the document in one of OUR AI Accounts ...
AT Quantum D.... we are developing the software Machine which one day will house AI... This is not a class of software the public known about yet and probably never will..as its binding infrastructure, a new class of software..
as ive stated before here simula was created in the Scandi countries in the mid 1960s.. thats why Finland has the right number toilets in its underground car park bunkers not just in it malls...
My random thought to the winner post was I wonder if there is something of a NZ broker firm reports got on a cloud storage platform that is somehow being allowed to have third party access. Possible a client has it stored on an unsecured cloud platform.
Just random thoughts, sure you have a better read on the possibility of where Claude might access sufficient verifiable data, I have a head that spins a bit with AI potential to some extent.
Document storage projects contain documents... you load them up.... they can be downloaded off the NZX , the ASX, then combined the searches with web content from reserve banks , economic statistic sites and you have it....
It all come standard with your AI projects.... we put the documents through an AI PROJECT....
Dozens of them....
Then add more documents... download your AI projects and reload them... these are original documents generated from public information which derivative compilations of AI studies that are then reloaded.
We have 6 months of Documents....its the future you build your own AI project document libraries.
Quote from: Otago K on Oct 11, 2025, 04:03 PMMy random thought to the winner post was I wonder if there is something of a NZ broker firm reports got on a cloud storage platform that is somehow being allowed to have third party access. Possible a client has it stored on an unsecured cloud platform.
Just random thoughts, sure you have a better read on the possibility of where Claude might access sufficient verifiable data, I have a head that spins a bit with AI potential to some extent.
Maybe we both saying that broker analysts as we know them are destined to become redundant
Waltz's Claude seems to do a great job ..even better than analysts maybe
Could even be that many analyst reports are AI generated
Doubt AI could do a better marketing job than TINA... or run the company...understanding human nature..dont think it will replace either staff or CEO of these companies..help with the filing and collecting the stats sure...
Hey Waltz, what does your Claude say about Ebos
If he's on same page as me I might make the effort to use him or something similar.
My goodness - turners goes up while market is down. Juicy dividend on its way too.
I topped up with some more late last week.
Me too. I figured this morning, at $7.30 yesterday's close, with a rise of 1 cent per quarterly plus credits TRA is paying 7.1%
FY26 year already half way through. It's very important to look ahead with growth companies.
Based on average analyst expectations, even after yesterday's all time high, TRA is trading on a FY27 PE of only 13 2.
That is for a company with a 5 year proven CAGR in eps of 12% and a 10 year CAGR in dividends of 14% per annum. Lots more expansion and market share gains coming in the years ahead as well as an improving economy.
By my estimates gross yield in FY 27 is just on 7% rising to 8% the following year.
I made the decision to invest more in high quality well managed companies with management that I really trust and who have earned my upmost respect than chase tech.
Turners just keeps pleasing :-)
its going up because of lack of other options except Ports and fruit... the Hort sector...
and we thought we had time to build more ....plenty of time said AI.. not due to take off till 27-28....
rebalance in the next 12 to 18 months.... right...
I'm beginning to wonder if TRA share price getting a bit 'overpriced'
Both PE and P/B ratios reaching record highs ...just like profits eh. Need to put the P/B ratio has only grown at about 4% pa over the hast few years
Whatever as long as OCR cuts keep coming we should be OK ...but what happens when rates start going up next year
IMG_6259.png
Half year result about a month away
They said 'tracking for 10%+ earnings growth' a while ago
Wonder how how much over the 10% they are tracking ...if quite a bit more migh5 need to provide an update in next week or so
Quote from: winner (n) on Oct 27, 2025, 09:50 AMI'm beginning to wonder if TRA share price getting a bit 'overpriced'
Crikey.....take care Winner. Dangerous talk.
A couple of thoughts. 10%+ eps growth leaves the gate wide open on the plus side and I don't see any need for them to update the market.
As to the PE, in my view Turners history is made up of two parts. Part 1 Before the brilliance of the Tina marketing campaign, and part 2, afterwards. CAGR in EPS has been 12.3% since Tina kicked off. What's a fair PE for a company able to grow earnings at that rate despite the most challenging 5 year period of trading, (arguably ever), but certainly since the GFC ? Briscoes has no growth in EPS over that timeframe but trades on a PE of 21 and Rod is looking tired and old so their are succession issues in the medium term to consider as well.
Market is forward looking. Important to think ahead as FY26 year is more than half done and dusted. Based on FY27 average broker forecast Turners trades at just 13.2 times earnings. I reckon that's very cheap for a company and management team that have earned the respect to be considered a blue chip stock. Then there's their 10 year track record of CAGR in dividends of 14% per annum for the dividend hounds like me to consider.
Winner - What makes you think interest rates are going up next year ? NZ economy is so weak it needs several years of ultra low interest rates is how I see it.
I think Turners will comfortably surpass average analyst expectations as the economy finally starts to gradually recover with lower interest rates and I think its a compelling long term hold. Disc: Very happily holding a large 16.5% portfolio position.
Winner - What makes you think interest rates are going up next year ? NZ economy is so weak it needs several years of ultra low interest rates is how I see it.
Yes the New Zealand's economy needs a boost, and lowering the cost of servicing our household debt could help in the near term....but the cuts so far haven't really done much to consumer spend has it so what's going to change now.
But further cuts are unlikely to lift the economy in any sustainable way. In fact, if history is anything to go by, it's more likely to reduce the country's future potential growth rate.
Borrowing for consumption doesn't create wealth
We need investment in new machinery, technology, and systems to increase growth potential and to productivity over time. In short, investment turns effort into progress.
And sadly these the country lacks effort ....government, business and individuals.
If OCR got down to 2% or less where does NZD go and what happens to inflation? No doubt OCR will go up again and seeing productivity won't have improved country really in shit eh.
Economists seem to think there's a 6-12 month delay before OCR cuts have any effect. We should start to see the benefits gradually come to fruition over 2026 but more so in 2027 and 2028. There is a very clear need, in my opinion for a prolonged period of very low interest rates due to the fact we've bene in a deep recession for many years, especially on a per capita basis. I get it that this recession feels like it will never end, I really do but there are emerging signs that retail spending is starting to lift a bit.
I'm in the interest rates going up next year camp as well. Don't have a crystal ball but if we are going into a commodity boom and oil prices go up - inflation is going to rise.
I'm in a holding pattern with TRA - love how its performed to date.
Election year? Mortgage rates? Would be a brave decision
RBNZ focus is on keeping enough people unemployed and desperate to prevent higher living costs passing through to wages. No wage growth, no inflation worries.
So any more OCR cuts is a stupid move
the next move lower is 50/50 then...
certainly the heartland appears to have saved the day....again....
and labour hates them...along with the greens... still it take a long time for the money to flow through the system...
when is that next meeting and TRA out soon with more info...DAT HALF year ...
25 bps cut next month appears likely but another 50 bps cut a possibility. Good tailwinds for extra profit in their finance book.
Divi tomorrow 😋
Yeah, more shares under the dividend reinvestment plan and bought a few more on market as well.
is it on the move again? Gosh with all eyes on HLG TRA just moved up a few again!!! 7.54b
Quote from: Waltzing on Nov 05, 2025, 03:39 PMis it on the move again? Gosh with all eyes on HLG TRA just moved up a few again!!! 7.54b
Both hit new all time high's yesterday. In addition to both being compelling GARP (growth at a reasonable price) stocks the TA looks great.
Anyone want to throw a few buck at the $8 seller ;D
Go on do it
Quote from: Dolcile on Nov 06, 2025, 02:22 PMAnyone want to throw a few buck at the $8 seller ;D
What's a fair forward PE for a company with a 5 year EPS CAGR of 12.4% ?
In my books it's 20. 20 x forecasr EPS of 50 cents is $10. That's where I see the fair intrinsic value of Turners.
Basil, any idea of the real value (market) of the $228m of land and property they have on the books at cost les depreciation?
Great question for the annual meeting Winner !
Quote from: Basil on Nov 06, 2025, 07:04 PMGreat question for the annual meeting Winner !
Or at least asking in the hugs session after the meeting.
Quote from: Basil on Nov 06, 2025, 06:17 PMWhat's a fair forward PE for a company with a 5 year EPS CAGR of 12.4% ?
In my books it's 20. 20 x forecasr EPS of 50 cents is $10. That's where I see the fair intrinsic value of Turners.
Remind me Basil, what is your GARP formula... is it EPS*(8+growth)?
Ben Graham used historical EPS x a no growth (8.5 + 2g) where g is the expected EPS growth rate for the next 7-10 years.
I use forward EPS x no growth PE of (8.5 + 1g) which gives a far more conservative valuation. The trick of course is estimating forward years g which is never easy but is made easier when companies like Turners have a very well defined growth plan in the years ahead that's already been working extremely well.
Turners growth has been remarkably consistent over the last 5 years, whereas HLG has been more patchy and slightly slower but I think Glassons Au has a longer runway for growth due to the size of the total addressable market in Australia than Turners does here but who knows with Turners. Management are very, very smart operators so who knows what their expansion plans are beyond the obvious over the next ~ 7 years. I have to admit I initially didn't think much of the Turners Mk2 advertising campaign but that song "sell us your car" is growing on me and its quite catchy. It'll be super interesting to see how much they exceed 10% earnings growth when they report later this month. Another fresh all time high today suggests to me the market is sniffing out a decent sized earnings beat.
Briscoes guiding NPAT if 60m... meaning it trades on a 20x PE multiple with low /now growth expectations :o
Quote from: Dolcile on Nov 07, 2025, 09:34 AMBriscoes guiding NPAT if 60m... meaning it trades on a 20x PE multiple with low /now growth expectations :o
2 x short Briscoes and 1x long TRA and 1x long HLG would be an excellent way to go even harder on growth stocks in the retail sector trading on compelling fundamental's and remove any extra retail risk involved. Crickey, that strategy is almost begging to be implemented.
Is there a practical way to short Briscoes?
Talk to these guys https://www.leveragedequities.co.nz/about-us
Its ... up again....AGAIN....
Quote777 is often considered a lucky number. It is associated with good fortune, positive energy, and spiritual growth. Many believe that seeing the number 777 signifies alignment with your purpose and that your goals and desires are manifesting into reality. Additionally, it is viewed as a powerful spiritual sign that encourages intuition and inner wisdom.
whatisnumerology.com
Sounds like a load of mumbo jumbo B.S. to me but hey, its Friday and Turners closed there so I'll drink to that.
Quote from: Basil on Nov 07, 2025, 05:10 PMSounds like a load of mumbo jumbo B.S. to me but hey, its Friday and Turners closed there so I'll drink to that.
SUM closed at 1111 a few weeks and that's a number that points to good fortune.
Means even more when these prices are weeks end
Quote from: Basil on Nov 07, 2025, 05:10 PMSounds like a load of mumbo jumbo B.S. to me but hey, its Friday and Turners closed there so I'll drink to that.
I like 777. I like 888 more. Chinese love numbers. I find it intriguing. They're supposedly secular but very superstitious. It's a contradiction.
I bought more at 7.32 after exchanging kfl for kfl warrants. It seems like sound math. The outcome is to be seen. I'd already doubled my holding around 7. I'm overweight but I have bought an ebike this week and I love it, more beer and tra 😁
Apparently the used car market is stuffed at the moment....like challenging market conditions, including economic weakness, margin pressure, low immigration numbers, and high regulatory costs in the used-vehicle industry
So says a competitor ...it's amazing Turners heading to record profits if that's the case
Would make a fascinating case study for a management studies course at Uni. How can one company do so well when others in the sector are struggling. I think there's a huge number of salient reasons why but I'm just on my phone so won't elaborate further as it would take too long. Another great case study would be comparing SUM with its peers. Such a vast difference in their performance despite operating in the same sector and same weak economic conditions.
Lots of lessons to be observed studying companies with true management excellence. Looking forward to TRA reporting next Thursday. Yet another record interim result looks certain. For what its worth Todd responded very positively to my suggestion of a share split a while back. Obviously he's only one board member though but you never know.
Tourism up, retail down... more OCR cuts needed???
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/136146/review-things-you-need-know-you-sign-thursday-no-joy-retailers-migration-pressures
share split fabulous .... could they be 10 dollars by 2023?
What reason is there for a split? Liquidity? Two impressive years of appreciation and I'm still feeling optimistic.
If there's a reason to sell give me a heads up, I held hgh and pgw all the way up...and most of the way down.
A possibly share split is just to boost liquidity. I'm also very optimistic about Turners future and a very happy long term holder too with no interest whatsoever in selling. Is it expensive given the excellent run in the share price in the last 2 years at $7.80 ?
I would argue its absolutely not expensive at all ! 7.5 months of FY26 is already done and dusted and Turners trades at just 14.2 times consensus analyst earnings for FY27 and that's for a company with a proven 5 year EPS CAGR across the bottom of the worst retail cycle in decades of 12.4% per annum.
If they can grow like that during doom and gloom times, given we are surely now at the bottom of the economic cycle its not a big stretch at all to think that growth can continue at a similar rate going forward on the back of further branch expansion in the years ahead and other business initiatives like vehicle servicing, not to forget loan growth @ higher net interest margins. I'm looking forward to their half year report on Thursday 20th next week.
This is off topic but related to companies running finance divisions and TRA does run one and insurance...
TRA is not just a car dealer... it far far more than that..
from AI on calculating those tricky finance and insurance payments...
wonder what back end they are using for the finance division calculations... and remember AI has this to say about using Excel...
Wonder about all those law suits out there for Interest payments that are going on for banks but they should be using old main frames that use decimal data types ...
AI:
"Based on actual research, here's what I found:
Key Finding from Stack Overflow and Wikipedia:
The behavior difference is NOT the FPU adjusting values. It's Excel's worksheet formula engine implementing different comparison logic than VBA.
Evidence:
Excel's worksheet formulas "cheat" - Stack Overflow users discovered that Excel's = operator in worksheet formulas doesn't follow strict IEEE 754 binary comparison. Quote: "The Excel program gets around the issue by cheating on the application side."
Excel rounds/snaps results - Wikipedia's article on Excel precision states: "Excel does some rounding and/or 'snap to zero' for most of its results, in average chopping the last 3 bits of the IEEE double representation."
VBA follows IEEE 754 faithfully - When you pass those same values through VBA's comparison operator, it performs strict binary equality checking per IEEE 754 spec.
The Actual Mechanism:
Excel's worksheet calculation engine appears to apply a tolerance or rounding behavior to comparison operations that's NOT documented by Microsoft. One hypothesis is it may round to 15 significant figures before comparing (Excel's stated precision limit), or apply a "snap to zero" for tiny differences.
Critical Point:
A formula in excel =(0.1+0.2)=0.3 returning TRUE is Excel's formula engine applying undocumented comparison tolerance - NOT the FPU doing anything special. The FPU is faithfully executing IEEE 754 arithmetic. Excel then post-processes the comparison result.
The Missing Documentation:
I couldn't find Microsoft's official documentation explaining exactly what tolerance/rounding Excel applies to worksheet comparisons. This appears to be legacy behavior, possibly from when Excel needed to hide floating-point quirks from non-technical users.
something IS adjusting the comparison - but it's Excel's application layer, not the FPU hardware."
Looks to be a good half year result:
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/462999
Key Financial Highlights (HY26 vs HY25):
• Revenue: $219.0m, +5%
• EBIT¹: $34.1m, +10%
• NPBT: $30.4m, +13%
• NPAT: $21.9m, +13%
• Earnings per share (EPS): 24.2 cps, +11%
• Interim dividend declared: 8.0 cps, fully imputed
I haven't looked at it in detail, but 13% increase in profit is outstanding. Also they seem to be well on track to hit the $60m NPBT target by end of the full year. Dividend guidance of "at least 32cps" for the year.
Really happy with the team at Turners.
Excellent result !
Good result... well done holders. TRA's diverse revenue streams are the key IMO.
is there something in the finance div?
No mention of how much market share they have currently
Might have overlooked it
5 year EPS CAGR of 12.9% to FY25. EPS up 13% in the first half of FY26. The trend continues and the trend is your friend.
Good to see share price over 8 bucks
Wonder how much Auto Shop / Turners Repairs contributed this half year
Quote from: winner (n) on Nov 22, 2025, 08:42 AMGood to see share price over 8 bucks
Wonder how much Auto Shop / Turners Repairs contributed this half year
Won't have been very much at all. On the call Todd said they now have 17 technicians on the team, so I think there's a long haul ahead before we will see much revenue from this initiative.
Yeah I'd say Autoshop probably made a loss in this 6 months. Or break even at best.
I'd love to be at the Oyster and Chop get together tomorrow and celebrate the $8 milestone with other shareholders but I am away on holiday. I will be organizing another get together in early March and maybe we can drink to a $9 share price by then.
What,On holiday.??.
You have had all year to go on holiday........lol
Quote from: Basil on Nov 22, 2025, 11:07 AMI'd love to be at the Oyster and Chop get together tomorrow and celebrate the $8 milestone with other shareholders but I am away on holiday. I will be organizing another get together in early March and maybe we can drink to a $9 share price by then.
Quote from: Basil on Nov 22, 2025, 11:07 AMI'd love to be at the Oyster and Chop get together tomorrow and celebrate the $8 milestone with other shareholders but I am away on holiday. I will be organizing another get together in early March and maybe we can drink to a $9 share price by then.
Come on Basil, put holiday on hold for a couple of hours. You are the star of the meeting and I would like to nominate you as the new CEO of the Sharetrader meeting. Do I have a seconder for this motion. I have been to about 20 odd sharetrader meetings in the last 15 years or so. It won't be the same without you. I am going even though I have a sore tooth and jaw and dental appointment the next day. It is funny I haven't been able to login to sharetrader for a few months now, and wondering if I have been banned from that site but do enjoy the ST meetings. So come on Basil, it is only a couple of hours. Regards seeweed/seaweed
Thank you for your kind words Seaweed. I'm over at Great Barrier island on my boat. I'd love to be there with you guys but the date clashed with this trip.
I did very politely ask Ronaldson many weeks ago if we could change the Oyster and Chop date and am very disappointed he decided not to.
Really looking forward to catching up with you and others in March. Keep the first Sunday in March free for a long lunch at the Viaduct.
Quote from: seaweed on Nov 22, 2025, 01:14 PMCome on Basil, put holiday on hold for a couple of hours. You are the star of the meeting and I would like to nominate you as the new CEO of the Sharetrader meeting. Do I have a seconder for this motion. I have been to about 20 odd sharetrader meetings in the last 15 years or so. It won't be the same without you. I am going even though I have a sore tooth and jaw and dental appointment the next day. It is funny I haven't been able to login to sharetrader for a few months now, and wondering if I have been banned from that site but do enjoy the ST meetings. So come on Basil, it is only a couple of hours. Regards seeweed/seaweed
Seaweed, this weekend's revamp of ST site has left me logged out as well. Instruction to reset password (for log in) does not work either.
seeweed - re ST login. Id the email you used when originally signing up still a valid one? That seems to cause problems
Spill the beans on what was discussed at the sharetrader get-together please, anyone who was there.
Turners holders must have been in a good mood to celebrate !
QuoteSpill the beans on what was discussed at the sharetrader get-together please, anyone who was there.
Turners holders must have been in a good mood to celebrate !
I vas not zhere either. I zuspect zhose who vent are either zleeping een on zome vell chomped Chops OR
Eef after a vew deep beers, perhaps zhey decided ze vorld vas
not zhier Oyster? Vhereupon zhere vas an organized 'mass valk out' to ze top of ze Harbour Bridge, vhere ze whole crew, one by one, took a 'deep dive'.....
Vhen you return to port may I zuggesst a zhort combing of ze below bridge area to zearch vor any zurvivors Basil.
RB
Turners has been my "archillies heel of shares." Have tried several times to buy over the years and each time I miss out by a few cents and then become stubborn to buy into it again. Since then I've watched the share price increase after one good result after another.
Craig's have been pretty accurate with their forecasting on this one in my opinion and the latest note highlights another fantastic result in a difficult year.
Insert from Latest note
FY26 guidance bang in-line with CIPe
TRA issued FY26 NPBT guidance of "around $60m", implying c.11% YoY growth in 2H26. The Group has also signalled that dividends will be "at least" 32cps in FY26 (CIPe 32cps / FY25 29cps). Given guidance is in-line with our forecasts, we leave our uNPAT largely unchanged for FY26/27/28 at $43.2m/$48.2m/$51.7m
On saying that Craig's think FY28 NPBT target is too conservative.
A well run company with impressive EPS share growth over many years. At the current share price I don't see it as cheap, but sometimes quality is indeed worth paying for.
Finally my curse has been broken. I'm now a holder and on the Turners train.
Welcome on board mate. Trading at a PE of about 15 on forecast FY27 earnings for a company that's been growing EPS at double digits for years, its arguably still a great time to buy. Imagine how this puppy will run when the economy finally gets out of the dogbox !
Yes as B says, welcome!
I've been buying all the way up from about $4.60 and the story keeps getting better. Wish I'd got more, earlier.
Tina charging $10 a hug by Christmas 2026 would not surprise me.
Quote from: Basil on Nov 24, 2025, 07:58 AMSpill the beans on what was discussed at the sharetrader get-together please, anyone who was there.
Turners holders must have been in a good mood to celebrate !
A good venue for eating cheap oysters which were delicious, but not very good for ST meeting unless you could get a table with chairs. There were plenty of tables and chairs for the younger generations but not for us. We had to settle for high stalls on a fairly wide bar in the center of the garden bar. There were two groups of us, one group on each side of one end of the bar and I could not hear what the other group were talking about. The queue, to get in, wasn't too long. Went straight to the bar and was told to go back to your table and wait to be served. Forty minutes later finally served. Not too much said about TRA but steady as she goes. A bit about DGL,FSF,SEK and a few others. A bit of talk on a different venue next time for a change.
Quote from: seaweed on Nov 25, 2025, 04:25 PMA good venue for eating cheap oysters which were delicious, but not very good for ST meeting unless you could get a table with chairs. There were plenty of tables and chairs for the younger generations but not for us. We had to settle for high stalls on a fairly wide bar in the center of the garden bar. There were two groups of us, one group on each side of one end of the bar and I could not hear what the other group were talking about. The queue, to get in, wasn't too long. Went straight to the bar and was told to go back to your table and wait to be served. Forty minutes later finally served. Not too much said about TRA but steady as she goes. A bit about DGL,FSF,SEK and a few others. A bit of talk on a different venue next time for a change.
40 minutes for a drink in a Bar. The Oysters and the chat must of been good Seaweed.
Quote from: Dolcile on Nov 22, 2025, 10:33 AMYeah I'd say Autoshop probably made a loss in this 6 months. Or break even at best.
Seems Turner's share of Autoshop losses for half year were $99,000 (total loss $198,000)
Not as bad as the $192,000 they booked for Sept/March (total loss $384,000)
Quote from: winner (n) on Dec 03, 2025, 03:00 PMSeems Turner's share of Autoshop losses for half year were $99,000 (total loss $198,000)
Not as bad as the $192,000 they booked for Sept/March (total loss $384,000)
Autoshop has the feel of another Carly - wouldn't be surprised if it quietly disappears in a year or two. Not material to the TRA investment proposition.
Two directors selling. Aaron 150k and Todd 200k
Aaron is not a director, he's the CFO. Can't blame them for wanting to diversify their investments a bit. Todd still has over a million shares.
Probably wanted a few HLG.
that auto shop thing does not seem like core business... can it be dumped???
Quote from: Waltzing on Dec 05, 2025, 09:19 PMthat auto shop thing does not seem like core business... can it be dumped???
It is a new investment. Needs some time to grow.
And new High :o ;D
Quote from: Dolcile on Dec 17, 2025, 02:50 PMIt is a new investment. Needs some time to grow.
Indeed it does. On the last call Todd talked about the time they were saving servicing their own fleet of cars onsite so there's that payback as well. Give it a few years and I think this will be a useful addition to the other divisions in terms of being eps accretive.
------- 8.26 -------
Is the market expecting an increase to the Dividends this year? Looks like it...
Quote from: Waltzing on Dec 18, 2025, 12:03 PM------- 8.26 -------
Is the market expecting an increase to the Dividends this year? Looks like it...
Lately, especially in the last month or so, you get a few days where there are zero sellers for a good part of the day. Very odd. And those that do sell, so long as the price isn't too extreme, gets snapped up quick taking it up to $8.30 yesterday.
Quote from: Waltzing on Dec 18, 2025, 12:03 PM------- 8.26 -------
Is the market expecting an increase to the Dividends this year? Looks like it...
Recent guidance was for 32 cps+, fully imputed so at say 33 cps, that's 45.83 cps gross which is 5.7% gross yield at a share price of $8 which is very attractive for a growth company that has a decade long track record of growing dividends at a 14% CAGR. We're basically at the three quarter point of the FY26 financial year so investors should be thinking about FY27 and FY28 EPS and DPS not focused on the immediate yield. Craigs forecasting EPS and DPS of 57 CPS and 37 CPS in FY28 and I think there's very good prospects TRA will comfortably exceed that.
Business confidence hits a 30 year high ! https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/582323/business-confidence-rises-to-30-year-high Maybe some of those business owners might think its a good time to buy a major item like a car ?
At end of December 2022 TRA share price was $3.55 and trading at 1.15 times it Book Value of $3.07
Some 3 years on the Book Value is $3.42 - 11.4% higher
If TRA traded at same multiple as at Dec 22 its share price would be $3.98 today
Buts trading at $8.15 - $4.60 higher
Could say $0.40 due to company performance (increase in Book value) and $4.50 from a massive market rerate (multiple expansion from 1,1 to 2.4)
Market rerate a reward for consistent growing ... and a bit of market love
Well done Turners
I think it just points to the fact that accounting book value doesn't reflect the fair value of the company.
Share prices follows EPS and the rate of growth in same in the past as well as the predictability of future sustainable EPS growth. NTA is not especially all that relevant in many cases, (not all cases). REIT's and listed investment trusts are good examples where NTA is highly relevant. Some people think the NTA of retirement villages is highly relevant. I am not one of them. Return on assets is so appallingly low all that really matters is EPS for them in my opinion.
A couple of good examples to illustrate my point.
Net Tangible book value of assets per share FPH $3.09
Net Tangible book value of assets per share EBO $-0.34
That said, there is a case to be made that NTA is relevant to some extent with TRA in regard to its finance book and property assets but in my opinion TRA has well and truly earned its current pricing status.
Quote from: Basil on Dec 23, 2025, 04:24 PMShare prices follows EPS ........
NTA is not especially all that relevant in many cases .....
Agree but if share prices follow EPS they also follow Book Value BV. BV is the value of shareholder equity
BV is not NTA in most cases In TRA case BV is about$3.45 v NTA of $1.75
EPS is Earning per share. PE is Price/EPS. P/B is BV per share (Price//BV)
Could say the E = BV x ROE and if one does a bit of algebra you can see the relationship between P/B and PE
TRA PE and P/B move together. I've posted a cool chart a while ago.
I think there's real value in following BV. It is a reflection of how earnings are growing but importantly how much profits are retained to continue growing the business.
That's today's little rave
Grant Baker reflects on Turners success and other companies he's owned over the years and his love of Ferrari's. Paywalled. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/companies/banking-finance/turners-boss-grant-baker-on-buying-dorchester-42-below-deal-and-his-love-of-ferraris/premium/7XRLWJTSNZHWTCAOZ47REJBHW4/
Quote from: Basil on Jan 03, 2026, 02:44 PMGrant Baker reflects on Turners success and other companies he's owned over the years and his love of Ferrari's. Paywalled. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/companies/banking-finance/turners-boss-grant-baker-on-buying-dorchester-42-below-deal-and-his-love-of-ferraris/premium/7XRLWJTSNZHWTCAOZ47REJBHW4/
Great article. Happy to finally be on board.
Back over $8.30 after going ex an 8 cps dividend last week. Very impressive company !
P.S. That comment didn't age well lol
I completely forgot about the pending dividend. Love the quarterly distributions!
Two decent blocks of shares just crossed at $8.40 one was for 166000 shares at that new all time high and that's just a week after going ex dividend. Crickey.
I'm waiting for something similar to happen with TWR now.
Decent 11%+ uplift in used car transactions in December as Turners hits another fresh all time high of $8.43 today
https://www.turners.co.nz/globalassets/terms-and-conditions/market-report-cars---December-2025.pdf
$8.50
Wow
I find it bizarre how many stocks rise ex div but TRA has been the star performer in this over the last 3 years.
Quote from: mike2023 on Jan 16, 2026, 12:10 PMI find it bizarre how many stocks rise ex div but TRA has been the star performer in this over the last 3 years.
Yeah it really shouldn't be the case, in fact, because a lot of investors will be on marginal rates above 28% the share price should drop by more than the dividend.
Oh well :-)
Taking advantage of the DRP on Turners has been a real cherry on the top!
UBA - unbelievable....nearly 8.50....
only 1.50 from 10...
I am still a bit stunned we are at $8.50. Thanks to Basil for alerting me to this great company.
Price activity bodes well for a positive second half.
Its very satisfying to see the market according the company and it's management the respect they deserve.
Now trading at 16 times next years, FY27, earnings its not cheap but not expensive either considering it's 5 year EPS CAGR of 12%.
Quote from: Basil on Jan 19, 2026, 08:15 AMIts very satisfying to see the market according the company and it's management the respect they deserve.
Now trading at 16 times next years, FY27, earnings its not cheap but not expensive either considering it's 5 year EPS CAGR of 12%.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/465912
Competitors are making some positive noises about the market, so TRA would be experiencing the same to a greater/lesser degree.
As TRA share price heads to new highs thought I'd check what the PE ratio has grown by
Jeez - PE has expanded at a staggering 12% pa ... yep a CAGR of 12%
Talk about market love
Yes their superb track record of 12% CAGR in EPS over the last 5 years during the darkest days of the deepest recession in N.Z. in decades has been recognized by the market but is a company trading at 16.5 times FY27 earnings over priced when its delivered 12% CAGR EPS growth ? If the company can perform so well in the deepest of recessions imagine how well they can perform when the economy is growing ! I'd argue its still one of the cheapest GARP stocks on the NZX that's growing quickly.
All parts of the business are firing on all cylinders.
The three new sites in Christchurch are well located, and very well presented to take full advantage of Turners excellent Tina marketing.
Customer satisfaction is extremely high.
Money in vehicles... Colonial Motors update
MKTUPDTE: CMO: Guidance update
On 17 December 2025, the Company provided guidance that the then anticipated
trading profit before tax for the six months to 31 December 2025 would be at
least 20% ahead of the previous comparative six months to 31 December 2024.
Following a stronger than anticipated December result, that guidance can be
increased to a trading profit before tax for the half year to be at least 30%
ahead of the previous comparative six months.
End CA:00466626 For:CMO Type:MKTUPDTE Time:2026-01-28 16:25:00
Quote from: 777 on Jan 28, 2026, 04:46 PMMoney in vehicles... Colonial Motors update
MKTUPDTE: CMO: Guidance update
On 17 December 2025, the Company provided guidance that the then anticipated
trading profit before tax for the six months to 31 December 2025 would be at
least 20% ahead of the previous comparative six months to 31 December 2024.
Following a stronger than anticipated December result, that guidance can be
increased to a trading profit before tax for the half year to be at least 30%
ahead of the previous comparative six months.
End CA:00466626 For:CMO Type:MKTUPDTE Time:2026-01-28 16:25:00
wow that's a great result. Bodes well for turners.
Makes a somewhat interesting comparison. CMO trading at 14.4 times last years earnings and has a 7 year EPS CAGR of negative 4.27% !
Has had extreme volatility in earnings over the years too. New vehicle franchises are far more vulnerable to huge shifts in demand than Turners are which is another reason why Turners has seen market recognition for its achievements.
Consider this. How many other companies on the NZX can boast of 5 years in a row, soon to be 6 of record profits with all the endless drama's and the almost endless recession since Covid hit in early 2020 ? No wonder the market has woken up to TRA's attributes. Their Tina campaign has also been a huge hit but I am still not so sure about whether the new Tina campaign is nearly as good as the first bunch of advertisements which in my opinion had brilliant creative talent.
I'd like to see Todd mix and match up the first and second series of adds a bit. Might reach out to him and suggest that when I have the time and maybe mention the benefits of a share split again.
CMO PBT is 3% of sales compared to TRA at 13% ....amazing
Turners sell less than half of CMO does but makes more twice as much
The other thing about Turners is that their revenue is diverse which reduces risk.
I think CMO trades at a comparatively higher multiple because of the low float and significant Gibbons family holding.
Todd from Turners interviewed on RNZ Morning Report this morn...... good stuff.
"16% of shares owned by staff."
"plenty of runway's to grow, we are at only 10% market share."
Quote from: Left Field on Jan 29, 2026, 08:17 AMTodd from Turners interviewed on RNZ Morning Report this morn...... good stuff.
"16% of shares owned by staff."
"plenty of runway's to grow, we are at only 10% market share."
Link to interview
https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/morningreport/audio/2019020865/ceo-interview-todd-hunter-turners-automotive-group
All I'm hearing is we are still in growth mode and there is a long runway ahead.
New car sales up. Presumably with rentals being restocked as tourists return in greater numbers.
What is the historical uptake of the dividend reinvestment plan? Back of the fag packet calculation suggests around 15% uptake this time....that seems low to me.
AI tells me that the percentage of DRP update started at about 25% in 2023 and has gradually declined the 15% we have just seen.
What will the share price be in 12 months time in your opinion?
For Bar downgrade to underperform
We downgrade our rating on Turners Automotive (TRA) from NEUTRAL to UNDERPERFORM.
TRA has emerged from a prolonged New Zealand economic downturn with its operating model increasingly well understood by the market, alongside early signs of cyclical improvement.
Recent peer updates point to a recovering consumer backdrop, and our proprietary data suggest a modest improvement in TRA's second-hand transactional volumes through FY26 to date. Reflecting this, we lift our FY26 earnings estimates and increase our price target. However, TRA's share price has materially outperformed underlying earnings, producing a +68% total return over the past year and driving a sharp multiple re-rating.
While we believe a re-rating was justified and continue to view TRA as a high-quality business with disciplined execution, diversified earnings streams, and clear growth drivers, we consider that much of TRA's historical multiple mis-pricing has now been corrected. With the market pricing in a more robust recovery than is currently evident in our volume data, we see the balance of risk skewed towards a period of share price consolidation following its strong run.
Target $7.85
Quote from: Greekwatchdog on Feb 03, 2026, 10:59 AMFor Bar downgrade to underperform
We downgrade our rating on Turners Automotive (TRA) from NEUTRAL to UNDERPERFORM.
TRA has emerged from a prolonged New Zealand economic downturn with its operating model increasingly well understood by the market, alongside early signs of cyclical improvement.
Recent peer updates point to a recovering consumer backdrop, and our proprietary data suggest a modest improvement in TRA's second-hand transactional volumes through FY26 to date. Reflecting this, we lift our FY26 earnings estimates and increase our price target. However, TRA's share price has materially outperformed underlying earnings, producing a +68% total return over the past year and driving a sharp multiple re-rating.
While we believe a re-rating was justified and continue to view TRA as a high-quality business with disciplined execution, diversified earnings streams, and clear growth drivers, we consider that much of TRA's historical multiple mis-pricing has now been corrected. With the market pricing in a more robust recovery than is currently evident in our volume data, we see the balance of risk skewed towards a period of share price consolidation following its strong run.
Target $7.85
Thanks for posting. Typical, just when I had finally become a holder.
Quote from: Shareguy on Feb 03, 2026, 11:06 AMThanks for posting. Typical, just when I had finally become a holder.
Its subjective and argumentive. Its their view based on the info they gather, others will have theirs based on past performance.
Bottom draw until TRA results say otherwise tehn you decide..
And conveniently they increase their target price after the share has already surpassed it!
Quote from: Dolcile on Feb 03, 2026, 11:30 AMAnd conveniently they increase their target price after the share has already surpassed it!
Go figure
I think there's a tendency from some junior analysts to put too much weight on historical multiples.
Objectively a forward PE of just over 16 is very good value for a company with a 5 year EPS CAGR of 12% especially given the prevailing economic environment.
I think they're well positioned to continue delivering record annual profits and grow EPS strongly in the years ahead. I'm reluctant to put a 1 year price target on TRA because it's a fact that it's had a strong run in the last two and a half years but I am happy to hold long term.
Very few companies on the NZX are as well managed as TRA.
Thought for the day. Isn't selling in an uptrend even dumber than buying in a downtrend ? Have a look at the chart, it's a beautiful looking uptrend.
Ha ha ---- UNDERPERFORM on Turners the day they put out a long rave on Arborgen with an amazing story and a price target of 20 cents
Probably thought they need to get punters to sell Turners to BUY this new wonderful opportunity Arborgen
Aren't I cynical
Maybe the Forbar analyst liked my chart
To a certain extent the analyst is right .... he's not that biased imho
Screenshot 2026-02-03 125233.png
I beg to differ, with Turners it's all about EPS growth and price to book is far less relevant. (Has some relevance with their finance book).
when has FOBAR been accurate about anything...
Recently a well known Olympic sculler worked for them after retiring from an unsuccessful Tokyo bid to get selected.. he selected as his coach a very good sowing machine operator.. upholstery expert.. you have to calculate angle to make cut and that stuff.. should have been ok right to select that person as a coach? but sculling requires a knowledge of two very famous mathematicians and you have to know how to extract data from devices and track your acceleration models. Now the French man who did Black magic did not know how to do this and we did not tell him.. even after a two hour meeting when we got back from sweden and Black magic came to race here.. no money in it for us... Black magic did not get the data they needed and nor did the FOBAR sculling champion...
Moral of the story FOBAR does not always hire people who know what they are doing.. watch out Tauranga...
Does the NZ public like TINA... or is there TINA...Trees versus TINA... place your bets
Quote from: Basil on Feb 03, 2026, 11:34 AMI think there's a tendency from some junior analysts to put too much weight on historical multiples.
Objectively a forward PE of just over 16 is very good value for a company with a 5 year EPS CAGR of 12% especially given the prevailing economic environment.
I think they're well positioned to continue delivering record annual profits and grow EPS strongly in the years ahead. I'm reluctant to put a 1 year price target on TRA because it's a fact that it's had a strong run in the last two and a half years but I am happy to hold long term.
Very few companies on the NZX are as well managed as TRA.
Thought for the day. Isn't selling in an uptrend even dumber than buying in a downtrend ? Have a look at the chart, it's a beautiful looking uptrend.
Not sure it has anything to do with "junior". Predicting future share prices (and get it right) is about as likely as predicting the weather a year ahead - and get it right. Forecasts compared to outcomes end up as white noise. If there would be anybody who could do that, they would by now own the world instead of asking other people to pay them for their predictions.
Looking at the TA - you are right, its an uptrend ... and selling in an uptrend might not be the best strategy to increase your funds ....
Looking into PE and growthrate - according to my data they are now sensible priced (but not cheap anymore).
Looking into management and business case ... it looks like they still could have a lot of runway (and watching these new Christchurch outlets grow). Obviously - as long as the EPS keeps growing, a higher PE is ok ...
Looking into the FOBar analysis ... as indicated, none of the analyst forecasts have more than entertainmnent value, but no doubt he is describing something which may or may not happen.
Anyway - not selling yet.
I agree that picking prices 1 year from now is difficult but with proper analysis I belive stock picking with a 3-5 year timeframe is much easier and I am confident TRA will be priced considerably north of the current share price in say 2030.
The current share price is very good value for a great GARP stock but not the screaming bargain it once was.
I think it's a great hold for the long run years ahead but brokerage houses get no brokerage from people that hold long term eh :;)
Quote from: Basil on Feb 03, 2026, 01:06 PMI beg to differ, with Turners it's all about EPS growth and price to book is far less relevant. (Has some relevance with their finance book).
A bit of algebra shows that P/E and P/B are inextricably intertwined and its little surprise that as shown on my chart they follow each other
Impressive numbers
5 Year CAGR
Sales 4.4% pa
NPAT 13.1% pa
EPS 12.2% pa
Book Value 5.2%
BV per share 4.3% pa
Dividend 8.7% pa
Obviously the FB guy didn't hear Todd's RNZ Morning Report interview on 29th January 😂😂😂😂
what would a maths guy at FOBAR know about the average person buying a second hand car...
what would any of those people know about NZ society demographic where children dont go to private schools...
what would they know about immigrants arriving from other country's ....
when you get to the millions of people knowing whats going on in town after little town and mid sized cities cant be track by one person in a cubicle...
but someone at TRA does know there market and how to market to it....
They found ...
TINA..
and Created TINA...
its simple TINA and how many second car dealers are there again?? how can you possible track that many little car shops...
anyone whatch the english car boys on sky...its a wheeler dealer car show... one car repair and trade at a time...
Now thats life at the curb side...and the car shop floor...
Ever been inside the bigger car dealer operations ? they are worlds within worlds and the owners like winger subaru made lots of money....not to mention the prestige dealers..
now you may say your not interested in driving anywhere else in the world...
but your may need to visit your dutch friend that moved to new zealand in 1983 and bought two farms and then sold them in 2019 and went to live in france in a cheap house with no modern wiring...
yes this post is about cars ...
but just driving a car in france... and you just happen to like driving in countries with a car you own and dont hire (who does this... madness)
is the second hand car in fact more than a heap of old junk on wheels...
well maybe....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DvK0ZP9vTLw
Turners are having an investor day on 24 March which is for institutions, analysts, brokers and professional investors. Not sure if they've had one of these investor days before ? Great that they're making a strong effort to communicate their growth strategy clearly. Wish HLG would follow suit. Hopefully some of the analysts get the message clearly. I will try and make space in my diary to attend.
https://forms.office.com/pages/responsepage.aspx?id=ytM4alvk10mKPWgKWICWrCoqTvzBBpxCso47sIUUDOxUOVY2R1M3NTMyWlVTNUFCWktJWElLNVZPVSQlQCN0PWcu&route=shorturl
Quote from: Basil on Feb 10, 2026, 12:45 PMTurners are having an investor day on 24 March which is for institutions, analysts, brokers and professional investors. Not sure if they've had one of these investor days before ? Great that they're making a strong effort to communicate their growth strategy clearly. Wish HLG would follow suit. Hopefully some of the analysts get the message clearly. I will try and make space in my diary to attend.
https://forms.office.com/pages/responsepage.aspx?id=ytM4alvk10mKPWgKWICWrCoqTvzBBpxCso47sIUUDOxUOVY2R1M3NTMyWlVTNUFCWktJWElLNVZPVSQlQCN0PWcu&route=shorturl
You a definite starter for this .....professional investor with a huge following meets the criteria
[/quote]
Topped up with a few more this morning. I think its a poor call by Forbar and this is one of the premier growth stories of this decade with a long runway for growth stretching well into next decade. One of the very best value GARP stocks on the NZX in my opinion. 12% EPS CAGR with all the incredible challenges of the last 5 years is truly extraordinary. I think the analysts will be very impressed with the growth outlook Turners will clearly articulate at their investor day on 24 March and I also think Turners will beat consensus FY26 market expectations.
Found a book my boss gave me years ago to read years and had another read recently. It is On Grand Strategy
by John Lewis Gaddis.
I think he gave it me because as the WSJ says it is the best education in grand strategy available in a single volume . . . a book that should be read by every American leader or would-be leader
Anyway there's mention of hedgehogs and foxes in describing leadership.
So I thought how does our beloved Todd Hunter stack up...... AI gave me this - and it seems so true ....Todd is a great leader —
Based on the principles outlined in Jim Collins' Good to Great, Todd Hunter of Turners Automotive Group exhibits the characteristics of a Hedgehog, specifically by focusing on a single, clear, and sustainable business model that has driven consistent, long-term success.
Here is the breakdown of why Hunter aligns with the Hedgehog concept:
The "One Big Thing" (Hedgehog): Hunter has concentrated Turners' efforts on becoming the undisputed leader in the New Zealand used car market by creating an integrated "auto eco-system."
This strategy revolves around the "flywheel effect": purchasing and consigning more cars, which increases retail sales, which in turn drives growth in their finance and insurance divisions.
Deep Focus on the Core: Instead of diversifying into unrelated industries, Hunter has doubled down on the core automotive retail, finance, and insurance businesses. This approach has led to consistent record profits, even during challenging economic times.
The "Tina" Effect: The "Tina" marketing campaign is a clear example of focusing on a single, compelling message to drive the economic engine—persuading Kiwis to sell their cars to Turners, which secures necessary stock.
Operational Discipline: Under his leadership, Turners has embraced a "culture of discipline," focusing on what they can be the best at, which has resulted in high employee engagement and strong shareholder returns.
While he is capable of adapting to change (a trait of a fox), Hunter's leadership style is defined by a focused, long-term strategy rather than pursuing many disparate, fleeting opportunities.
But AI elaborated -
Todd Hunter, the Group CEO of Turners Automotive Group, appears to be a hedgehog by result, but a fox by method.
In the business framework established by Jim Collins in Good to Great, a "hedgehog" simplifies a complex world into a single, overarching vision that they execute relentlessly. Here is how Hunter fits the categories:
The Hedgehog Traits (The Vision)
The "Flywheel" Focus: Hunter has spent nearly 20 years at Turners, refining a singular "auto ecosystem" strategy. This "flywheel" focuses on the intersection of car retail, finance, and insurance, where each part strengthens the others.
Disciplined Growth: Under his leadership since 2016, the company has delivered consecutive record profits by sticking to this core competency.
Cultural Consistency: He is frequently praised for building a "strong culture internally" and maintaining a high level of employee engagement as a core competitive advantage.
The Fox Traits (The Tactics)
Embracing Complexity: Award judges have explicitly noted that Hunter is "not afraid to embrace complexity," a trait typically associated with the "fox" who sees many things rather than just one.
Diversification & Change: While the goal is singular (the auto ecosystem), his methods are "transformational" and involve constant "diversification of the business" to stay ahead of economic headwinds.
Adaptive Strategy: He has led Turners through significant digital transformations and strategic investments (like the Quashed insurance platform), showing a fox-like ability to pivot and integrate new tools into the core mission.
Ultimately, Hunter functions as a "Hedgehog with Fox-like reflexes"—he maintains a single-minded focus on the Turners ecosystem but uses a wide, complex array of strategies to ensure it wins.
The thrust of Gaddis's thinking was hedgehog is good at doing just one thing, whereas a fox is good at doing many things.
Hedgehog leading often led to failure ...thing America in Vietnam and Kodak
So he makes the case for being both.
How about those interested in Turners including myself take a stab at what the key points of the 26 March strategy presentation will be? Including 5 year targets. I will have a crack at over the next couple of weeks and would love to see entries from Turners holders/followers.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/467150 (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/467150)
Okay, I will play in a tongue in cheek way, for now. Todd will roll out his $5 share price target again in 5 years time after announcing a 3:1 share split on the day. :)
Anyone seen any old skoda for sale at Turners...
Wheeler Dealers... skoda's ... honestly... dont miss that instalment on History channel...
oh its on Discovery Turbo... who actually watches that channel....
NO NO.. we dont...
Dealer numbers stay flat
January's total lowest for more than two decades and almost 200 below figure from year ago.
Posted on 17 February, 2026 by Autofile
The number of dealers on the Motor Vehicle Traders Register (MVTR) remained flat at the end of January after dropping by just two last month to 2,597.
It comes after the total nudged higher at the end of 2025 when it increased by four traders through December to stand at 2,599.
January's total is the lowest for that month in more than 20 years. It is also 192 below the 2,789 recorded at the end of the same month last year.
Dealer numbers have largely been in decline since reaching a high of 3,535 in November 2017.
Thought I'd run some of the numbers and comments here through an AI program that I've been working on. This is the result.
The Valuation Reality
Let me lay this out plainly:
(https://i.imgur.com/MJv4dW6.jpeg)
The maths of what's happened:
The stock has roughly doubled. But earnings have only grown about 50-60%. The other 40-50% of the share price gain has come from multiple expansion.
This is the critical point. When a stock re-rates from 8x to 17x earnings, that PE expansion is a one-time event. You can't re-rate from 17x to 34x — that would put Turners on a higher multiple than most tech companies. So the future return from here is essentially going to be driven by:
Earnings growth (~10-12% if things go well)
Dividends (~4-5% gross yield)
Maybe modest further multiple expansion (unlikely to be significant from 17x)
That gives you a plausible total return of 14-17% gross in a good year, but with meaningful downside risk if earnings disappoint or the multiple contracts.
Red Flags — Ranked by Severity
1. The Provision Coverage Decline (MOST CONCERNING)
This is the one that genuinely worries me. Let me be specific:
Total provisions have dropped from 1.98% of gross receivables (Sep-24) to 1.56% (Sep-25)
They're releasing the economic overlay provision ($2.3m → $1.9m → $1.4m) during a period when NZ consumer arrears are at 11.99% — the highest on their own Centrix chart
They justify this by pointing to their own arrears being well below market (2.6% vs 5.1%)
The average credit score of new originations is improving (744, up steadily)
Here's why this concerns me: Every finance company looks good on arrears right before they don't. The book is growing fast (13% in 6 months). New loans don't go into arrears immediately — there's a seasoning period. The true credit quality of this rapid growth won't be apparent for 12-18 months.
Releasing provisions while simultaneously growing the book aggressively during a recession is exactly the pattern that has preceded credit losses at numerous finance companies historically.
Am I saying they'll blow up? No. Their credit scores genuinely are improving. But the direction of provision coverage should be going up during uncertain times, not down. The fact that it's going down flatters reported earnings.
If they had maintained 2.0% provision coverage instead of 1.56%, the extra $2.1m provision would have reduced HY26 NPBT from $30.4m to $28.3m — still good, but less impressive.
2. Credit Management Goodwill Risk (MODERATE)
Management has explicitly flagged they'll review the carrying value at year end. The division earned $1.1m in HY26 (annualised ~$2.2m). Even at 8-10x earnings, that's only worth $18-22m. If there's $25m+ of goodwill allocated to this segment, an impairment is likely.
The forum is treating this as immaterial, and in the grand scheme it probably is — a $5-10m writedown wouldn't be business-threatening. But it would be a first for Turners under current management and could spook sentiment.
3. Cash Flow Quality (MODERATE)
Reported $21.9m profit, negative $30.9m operating cash flow. Yes, this is because they're growing the loan book, which is a productive use of capital. But it means:
The dividend is essentially being funded by borrowings, not operating cash flow
The business needs continued access to wholesale funding markets to sustain operations
Any disruption to securitisation markets (as happened briefly during COVID) would create immediate liquidity pressure
The new $200m public securitisation is positive for diversifying funding sources, but it also adds complexity and market-dependent refinancing risk.
4. Concentration in NZ (LOW-MODERATE)
Turners operates almost entirely in New Zealand. That's a $230 billion GDP economy with 5 million people. There are natural ceiling constraints on growth. The "only 10% market share" line sounds good, but getting from 10% to 20% in a mature market is extraordinarily hard. Most of the market share gains come from passive consolidation (competitors dying) rather than active conquest.
The branch expansion pipeline is sensible but the incremental profit contributions are modest ($200k-$700k per branch). You'd need a lot of branches to move the needle on a $60m NPBT business.
What Could Actually Go Wrong?
Turners' biggest risk isn't a blowup — it's deceleration followed by multiple compression. Here's the scenario:
NZ economy recovers slowly (which is the base case, they call it "two-speed")
Earnings growth slows from 12% to 6-7%
Market decides this is a 13-14x earnings business, not a 17-18x business
Stock goes from $8.50 to $6.50-7.00 (still a good company, just lower multiple)
You collect your 4-5% gross yield while you wait
That's not catastrophic but it is a meaningful drawdown and could take 2-3 years to recover from.
The more severe scenario involves credit losses accelerating in the finance book, but I give this lower probability given the improving credit quality metrics.
My Honest Take
If I owned it from lower levels, I'd be holding but with a trailing stop. The business is genuinely good and the growth is real. But I'd be trimming if it got above $9-10 because the valuation cushion has evaporated.
If I was looking to buy today, I'd want to see it back around $7.00-7.50 (roughly 14-15x FY26 earnings) before I got interested. That's a 12-18% pullback from current levels, which is entirely possible if any of the following occurs:
Quarterly earnings miss or guidance downgrade
Credit losses spike unexpectedly
Broader NZ market selloff
Credit Management impairment announcement
The fundamental problem with buying at $8.50 is this: You're paying 17x for a business that management is guiding to grow ~10%. That means your expected return is basically the earnings growth plus the dividend yield, minus any multiple contraction risk. That's maybe 12-15% gross in a good year, with asymmetric downside risk if anything goes wrong.
Compare that to $3.50-4.50: paying 8-9x for the same growth profile, getting a 7%+ gross yield, with massive re-rating upside. That was a genuinely compelling risk-reward. Today's buyers are paying roughly double the multiple for a business that hasn't doubled its earnings capacity.
Bottom Line
The stock was deeply mispriced at $3-4. It's approximately fairly priced at $8.50. Fair value and a good buy aren't the same thing. If you're going to buy, size it modestly, understand you're paying a full price for quality, and be prepared for periods of underperformance if the growth doesn't materialise as fast as the market expects.
Quote from: entrep on Feb 27, 2026, 10:34 AMThe stock was deeply mispriced at $3-4. It's approximately fairly priced at $8.50
Which is exactly where I well and truly backed up the truck.
Let me make this clear. HLG is currently, deeply mispriced, just like TRA was at $3.50. TRA is no longer deeply mispriced but that does not mean its not a great hold for future growth.I think that's not a completely unfair overview, I'm not going to comment on specifics, but that analysis is fundamentally flawed in one respect.
We're 11 months through FY26. The market is always a forward looking beast, always has been, so the market is viewing TRA on a forward PE of 15.5 for next year and all the thinking around TRA being priced at 17-18 times forward earnings is thus, fundamentally flawed. 15.5 forward PE for a company that's got a 5 year EPS CAGR of 12% during the deepest and most protracted recession in N.Z. in decades is not expensive for a company with a clear growth path in the years ahead during what will hopefully be more settled economic times. The list of companies on the NZX trading on more attractive metrics than that with a well proven double digit EPS CAGR is very, very short.
surely it disserves its current price... and its the start of 2026... its hardly a company with a big risk profile accept for its loan book but that risk is therefore the same as every other finance company including the banks...
hold till well after 2030 or even longer ...
its a stable...its iconic... If you say turners y dont say which turner are you talking about.. no no.. they know who you mean... it now part of the lexicon...
Like Maca's, you say Turners its TINA...
Do they have a value on the Name alone, the good will must be huge...
The market has decided that its P/E is going to be met...
The risk of a non recovery is real but hang on as Sir B has stated they did this in a recession that the government doesnt know exists....
Hey Basil, are you going to attend the investor day next week? I'm not able to attend but I'm certainly looking forward to a positive update.
Sorry mate, I'm away on holiday. I am supposed to be back next week but I've got quite a bit happening with the end of the financial year looming.
I'm sure Todd and Aaron who are great communicators will clearly articulate their growth plans in the investor presentation they release to the NZX. Looking forward to reading it.
I wonder what happens to the car market with fuel at $4/L?
A large demand for electric vehicles
Quote from: HAWKDOG on Mar 19, 2026, 06:58 AMI wonder what happens to the car market with fuel at $4/L?
Sell more hybrids, an opportunity to buy that Cherokee or landcruiser you want.
earnings upgrade NPBT of $63m, excluding impact of goodwill write-down.
https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/469510/attachment/464857/469510-464857.pdf
Quote from: HAWKDOG on Mar 19, 2026, 06:58 AMI wonder what happens to the car market with fuel at $4/L?
A timely upgrade for worried holders..
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/469510
Based on current trading conditions, Turners now expects net profit before tax (NPBT) before goodwill adjustments to be around $63 million, an increase to previous guidance of "around $60 million" and approaching the previously stated profit target of $65m in FY28.
Another very positive trading update.
Yep and I also like that they will be providing 5 year targets later in the month!
just remember petrol might run out in 5 or 6 weeks...
there could be a complete stop to car buying that is petrol shortly and electric sales go through the roof ....
until oil flows again..
inflation is here to stay says someone today on CNBC...
And on CNBC not more than 5 minutes ago Powel is staying until the law suite against him is dropped and everyone on the interview started laughing...
In other words Powel looks like he holds the whip...
When will the break through 70M.. 10 dollar stock? only a matter of when?
Very strong update
Quote from: Waltzing on Mar 19, 2026, 11:10 AMjust remember petrol might run out in 5 or 6 weeks...
there could be a complete stop to car buying that is petrol shortly and electric sales go through the roof ....
until oil flows again..
inflation is here to stay says someone today on CNBC...
And on CNBC not more than 5 minutes ago Powel is staying until the law suite against him is dropped and everyone on the interview started laughing...
In other words Powel looks like he holds the whip...
When will the break through 70M.. 10 dollar stock? only a matter of when?
Petrol isn't running out, there are alternative sources, it just takes time and obviously money, the USA has increase its crude stock in the last week and have yet to open up their own supply.
So F26 PBT going to be about $63m and next week they are going to reveal its earnings target for the next five-year period.
Lets gues the targets eh
Marketscreener has F26 at $61m and F27 at $70m and F28 at $77m
If Todd comes out with anything less it could be deemed to be a DOWNGRADE
So lets run with -
F27 $72m
f28 $80M
F29 $88m
F30 $98m
F31 $107m
Seems pretty reasonable to me
I'll leave it up to Basil to come up with a likely share price and dividend in @031
Looks all good and makes good sense to me Winner. Will have a look at prospective FY30 and FY31 gross yields when I'm back in the office.
Pretty cool how they very nearly made their FY28 target of $65m two years early. Might even make a bit more than $63m. I hear EV's and PHEV's are flying out the door at present.
"petrol runs out" ... green peace might set up a blockage of Tankers dropping off supplies...
You dont know what they are planning... looks like they sized up those windows perfectly... wonder what they did with the van..
could be a huge buying oppo on TRA.
Cherokee? ya nah.
At $4/l - industry slows down Mining/forestry/farming are diesel intensive
https://www.thepress.co.nz/business/360968541/41-job-cuts-loom-west-coast-sand-mine-proposes-pause-operation
NZ gets 90% of its fuel from Asia - Asia gets most of its oil from the middle east.
major spikes in oil price are generally followed by a recession.
the sale of EV's will increase but I would speculate the overall total number of vehicles sold declines
100% we see at least one interest rate rise this year.
just my thoughts. I am out of TRA, nice run from the mid 3's - will circle back when the dust settles.
Just to clarify - I am out of TRA as part of my move to increase my cash balance - not a knock on TRA.
New Zealanders will always need cars - even if they don't use them as much as they used to.
With higher fuel prices they may choose to change to cheaper, smaller models or even EVs.
When fuel prices reduce, as ultimately they will, they will revert to the cars they actually want.
Whatever happens, TRA is well positioned to help them - and its shareholders.
Well said Pierre. I note Turners is about to post it's sixth sucessive record profit, irrespective of Covid, repeated lockdowns and the longest and deepest recession since the GFC
An incredible track record of dealing with adversity.
and if it hadn't been for a bit of blip in FY20 this will be 11 years of growth
Great chart
Seem to have quadrupled Operating Profit since 2015
*Screenshot 2026-03-19 161031.png
yes of course fuel prices will eventually drop and people will drive what they can afford to drive.
TRA has not historically sold a lot of EVs - this will change as more used EVs come on the market.
As for covid - Aunty Cindy was far more generous than Nicola no ferries (could change) with helping joe public.
New car sales dropped about 30% during the GFC and took several years to recover.
a major oil price spike occurred immediately prior to the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). Oil prices reached a record high of over $145 a barrel in July 2008, driven by strong emerging market demand and speculation, before plunging in December 2008. This spike was a significant contributor to the severe economic pressures preceding the 2008 crash
Cash Dubai was assessed at a record $157.66 per barrel on Tuesday for May-loading �cargoes, S&P Global Platts said, surpassing Brent futures' all-time high of $147.50 in 2008.
Don't forget "Sindy" locked 1.8m Aucklanders down for months on end so they didn't need their cars and couldn't visit Turners car yards yet Turners still posted record profits in FY21, FY22 and so on.
Fair enough that those canny investors who backed up the truck at $3.50 less than 3 years ago take some chips off the table, as I have done and my remaining shsres, which is still a large holding are free carry but it's a big call selling them all as you've done. I'm not doing that.
I'm happy to continue holding the full allocation that my portfolio diversification rules allow, even at what I consider to be fair value. Turners are one of the few nzx listed companies that actually generates eps growth and ultimately returns for shareholders. I think some don't fully appreciate the potential for consolidation in the used car market and Turners are best placed to take advantage of that opportunity.
After rebalancing I'm approx 11% portfolio allocation.
Quote from: winner (n) on Mar 19, 2026, 11:57 AMSo F26 PBT going to be about $63m and next week they are going to reveal its earnings target for the next five-year period.
Lets gues the targets eh
Marketscreener has F26 at $61m and F27 at $70m and F28 at $77m
If Todd comes out with anything less it could be deemed to be a DOWNGRADE
So lets run with -
F27 $72m
f28 $80M
F29 $88m
F30 $98m
F31 $107m
Seems pretty reasonable to me
I'll leave it up to Basil to come up with a likely share price and dividend in @031
So they round it to $100m in F31 .......of course they being conservative eh ..... just in case
Underpromise and over deliver their game
Yeap, I reckon they get to $100m a year early in FY30 just like they've achieved other targets early. Under promise and over delivery is their M.O.
I see they're now forecasting 33 cps in dividends this year. $100m / $63m x 33 cps = 52 cps in annual fully imputed dividends by FY30.
FY26 $63m to FY30 $100m = 12% CAGR. The 12% CAGR journey shareholders have enjoyed ever since "Tina" started in 2021 looks likely to continue.
My FY30 price target = $13.50, same multiple its currently on, driven entirely by compounding EPS growth.
Some (like me) might say that a 12% forecast cagr makes Turners look like good value :-)
Agree 100%. Gosh there's a lot to like about the crystal clear way they communicate their growth strategy to the market. I wish management at HLG did that.
Stunning growth in their loan book of 23% since February 2025 and all the while the average credit rating of the book goes up. Gold star to management !
I loved this statement "We have performed well in a down cycle and will perform even better in an upcycle"
The discipline in sticking to the core automotive buy/finance/insure/sell formula provides real comfort, with the Turners Servicing aspirations reasonably modest over the next 5 years. Often, on the back of success, Management teams believe they can do anything and squander capital on ambitious growth aspirations in new markets (geographies or sectors) where they lack competitive advantage. Turners seem to have a tight and disciplined view on where and how they will maintain, and build winning competitive positions to generate increasing eps and dps.
Gosh I didn't realise that both Todd and Aaron have been there for 20 years ! Hugely experienced in their field of expertise. That's another thing that gives me comfort with TRA and also genuinely serious skin in the game with management and directors having circa 30% ownership of the company.
Great leaders have conviction ..which lead to success
John F. Kennedy didn't say "we're going to have a really, really great, top-tier space program folks!" He said, "we choose to go to the moon."
Todd is not saying we're going to a lot of great things ...he's saying 'we are going make more than $100m by 2031"
Notice the ADD marketing campaign targets the demographic and just saw an indian women surgeon having lunch with a Dutch women doctor and they both drove very ordinary cars... Bought im sure from a second hand dealer...
These professionals live on the health budget kick backs where the public are there bread and butter. The supplementary payments for pregnant womens health was the discussion.
Every sector has felt the impact of the for ever recession. If they make this in recessions then there business is already streamlined for survival.
Anyone noticed the closing SP?
Quote from: Waltzing on Mar 31, 2026, 06:45 PMAnyone noticed the closing SP?
$8.82 ....think that's an all time CLOSE high
Quote from: winner (n) on Mar 31, 2026, 06:54 PM$8.82 ....think that's an all time CLOSE high
Yep the highest closing price, though it did get to $8.89 intraday on March 26.
$9.00 can't be far away once the orange man qualifies for the Nobel Peace Prize.
Off topic - but people in little white long jackets are coming for the orange one ... cant be long now...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diagnostic_and_Statistical_Manual_of_Mental_Disorders
As TRA reaches all time highs time to look at how valuation multiples are going
Market having a love affair with Turners - both PE and P/B expanding
PE now over 18 and P/B is 2.6 (based on FY26 forecasts) - also all time highs
Let's hope the love affair continues
Screenshot 2026-04-01 130244.png
I like how Turners have shareholder returns as a top priority
Recent preso said they benchmark themselves against Mainfreight, Briscoes, Skellerup, Freightways and Eggers Automotive
Ranked shareholder returns - No 1 last few years
Cool
New financial year is upon us and if they make $72m NPBT that's 57 cps after tax on 91m shares. Current year PE of 15.3 seems very reasonable indeed for a company of Turners pedigree consistently growing EPS at a 12% CAGR. Might not be all that long before Tina is charging $10 a hug.
Eagers Automotive currently up 8%+ today trading on 19 times current year earnings.
I think the buffet saying of
"it's far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price"
Applies so well to TRA, HLG and SKL!
9 cent Q3 dividend declared up from 7 cps in Q3 last year. Very impressive increase !
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/470510
Outstanding
Q3 dividend brings total so far this year to ~$22m
Another $8m/$9m brings annual total to $31m/$33m
About right I suppose in light of guidance .... but then they know the actual FY26 already seeing it's the 7th of the month
Dividend reinvestment plan a great way to steadily increase your holdings at a 2% discounted price over time with the number of shares growing by compounding quarterly. You can elect by printing out page 15 of the DRP booklet available here
https://www.turnersautogroup.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Turners-DRP-Offer-2023.pdf, complete your details, scan and emailing to drp@computershare.co.nz, or mailing it to them or completing the online election on Computershare's website. In the long run nobody has regretted taking shares in lieu of dividend with Turners. Tina thinks its a great idea :)
Quote from: Basil on Apr 07, 2026, 05:59 PMDividend reinvestment plan a great way to steadily increase your holdings at a 2% discounted price over time with the number of shares growing by compounding quarterly. You can elect by printing out page 15 of the DRP booklet available here
https://www.turnersautogroup.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/Turners-DRP-Offer-2023.pdf, complete your details, scan and emailing to drp@computershare.co.nz, or mailing it to them or completing the online election on Computershare's website. In the long run nobody has regretted taking shares in lieu of dividend with Turners. Tina thinks its a great idea :)
Totally agree. Sharesies make it even easier - you just selected the dividend reinvestment option.
50,000 Options cashed in $2 each
Wonder who got them?
Re MFB thread ...any impending outrage?
I hope Tina got some. It would be nice to see her sharing in the sucess.
DRP strike price $8.46
Don't mind topping up a few more at a discount.
Jeepers $9.21 new ATH
Looking forward to them reporting later this month and the market seems confident it will be a strong result as am I. Many, many years of strong growth to come for Turners and the forward FY27 PE is still very reasonable indeed at approx 16 times, (according to consensus forecast) https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/TURNERS-AUTOMOTIVE-GROUP--20699914/
My view: I think they will comfortably beat the consensus forecast in FY26 and FY27 so in my opinion the forward PE is only about 15-15.5 times for the current year which for a company with a well proven 12% EPS CAGR despite severe economic adversity in the last 6 years, well that's still exceptionally good value for what is a very high caliber, exceptionally well managed, highly defensive stock in my book. This is very firmly on the "Do not sell at any price list" of stocks I own right alongside HLG which is arguably an even more compelling buy.
One of my best small investments in 2023 in the $3.70s. I figure with divs and growth it's been returning close enough to 50% pa. Long may it continue.
Also on the no sell list with IFT. Although I did cut back IFT last week to my core holding, not my best choice of late.
For many years TRA was largely static and I often grew bored of holding, not any more.