STU - Steel & Tube Holdings

[winner (n)]

Whenever I look at my STU stuff I can't help asking myself "in spite of all the restructures/transformations and Mark and Susan's raves over the last few years what really has changed with STU"

NPAT over the years and being generous in assuming F25 is a $10m loss.

You cannot view this attachment.

[Basil]

Just as an aside...love the word "munted"...hardly ever see it in use these days, especially by economists.
Its so prescriptive, doesn't leave much room for interpretation but for what its worth
munt·ed from an online dictionary
Maybe shareholders will get really lucky and FBU will renew their takeover offer at $1.90...but of course the directors would reject it as its below intrinsic value yet again just like ARV directors did with their $1.70 offer.  Really, some of these directors need to be taken out the back of the cow shed and @#%&.
I wouldn't trust STU directors as far as I could throw them.  I'm with Winner and Tony Alexander, the outlook for the next few years for this sector is pretty munted.

Sales were munted as expected.

[Shareguy]

Not surprised at all.

In my opinion Vulcan and others are unfortunately doing it much better, as far as customer relationships and stock holdings go. STU has lost the specialist niche they once had.  I have had conversations with customers who have said even "bread and butter" items STU often can not supply forcing you to deal with others.  Often basic items will come from far away branches either damaged or with ridiculous freight costs.

I imagine recent aquasitions will go the same way as a lot of their historical buys. Key staff will go to competitors or leave the industry and competitors will take the good customers.

Glad I sold out some time ago.  Best of luck to any holders.   

[Cod]

The question is what happens when price runs out of room on the decending wedge.
You cannot view this attachment.

[winner (n)]

Not surprised at all.

In my opinion Vulcan and others are unfortunately doing it much better, as far as customer relationships and stock holdings go. STU has lost the specialist niche they once had.  I have had conversations with customers who have said even "bread and butter" items STU often can not supply forcing you to deal with others.  Often basic items will come from far away branches either damaged or with ridiculous freight costs.

I imagine recent aquasitions will go the same way as a lot of their historical buys. Key staff will go to competitors or leave the industry and competitors will take the good customers.

Glad I sold out some time ago.  Best of luck to any holders.   

R
Good insights shareguy ....I'd heard much the same so must be some  truth to it.

Love how Mark raves with bits like this ' "The work we have done over the past two years has created a stronger, streamlined company. Importantly, we have retained sufficient 'muscle' in the business to ensure we can move quickly to capture profit expansion opportunities as demand returns. Hope it's not the key staff who are 'muscle' looking to move elsewhere

And Susan still raving on about this $68 billion of work coming up lol

[Shareguy]

Craig's say

Steel & Tube has issued a very weak trading update covering the first 4 months of FY25. Sales volumes have fallen -18%, total revenue is down -23%, with its Normalised EBIT now in negative territory (-$14.5m, CIPe c$12m) over the period to a loss of -$5m. This performance is much worse than Cam Parker had anticipated

[winner (n)]

Can't see them paying divie this year

Even more unlikely if they buy something

[LoungeLizard]

Worse result than predicted. Companies like STU are the canary in the coal mine and it's clear that although NZ may not be in a technical recession, there's a recessionary mood out there. The NATS need to start putting their money where their mouths are, and fast, as all this Government austerity is starting to bite in just about every industry. Looks like the long haul has got even longer for investors. 

[winner (n)]

I note 12% voted NO for re-election of Susan Paterson

[Stockgathering]

I note 12% voted NO for re-election of Susan Paterson

Why do you think that is Winner?

[Turkey]

Looking forward to Winners reply to your question.


I'm guessing there are some shareholders looking at a share value of circa 0.80c today vs a takeover offer in 2018 of $1.70...and wondering where the accountable is for saying shit like this...

Chair of Steel & Tube, Susan Paterson, said: "The fact that Fletchers has made this indicative offer

speaks to our reputation and the strength of our business. Obviously Fletchers sees a lot of value in

our business and its future potential as the benefits of our turn-around strategy start to become

clear... as do we."

https://steelandtube.co.nz/investor/media/2018/no-support-non-binding-indicative-offer-acquire-stu

I Sold my STU holding between 1.20 and 1.05 a few months back as winner told us they were going under 1.00

Cheers Winner...should have acted on your hunch earlier..would have made a few more pennies

Will be a share to buy again at some time....maybe after Susan leaves...but more likely when construction bottoms.

[BlackPeter]

...

Will be a share to buy again at some time....maybe after Susan leaves...but more likely when construction bottoms.

I guess this will be the $150m question (which would be current market cap) - when is construction going to bottom? Is it now? Is it next year? Is it after this government gets flushed down the drain? Is it after the US is losing the next idiot going to reign, or is it after the mother of all world wars ending sometimes in the decade to come? Problem is replacing inepts with inepts does not really seem to make a difference, no matter whether you pick the right-wing or the left-wing bunch.

[Turkey]

I have no idea when construction industry bottoms BP...I wouldn't even try to predict...but I think forecasts are saying no quick turnaround here in NZ. We probably closer to the bottom than I think.

there is no rush to buy STU...plenty of other shares with less headwinds or offshore markets going to perform better than NZ in next few years..where you can get a better return

It's good they have no debt, but will they keep paying a high or any div in short term with sales revenue down so much?

I was happy holder of STU for several years ...bought at 0.80...rode the escalator to 1.30...
Then Winner started beating the doom drums...concrete production down etc...I watched the escalator change direction and slowly exited my holding to lock in the gain plus had pretty good divies 8%+ too.

Very good move in hindsight as todays price is 20-25 odd % below my exit price.


I don't know exactly but if share prices goes in 0.70s and no deterioration in mkt or company I probably start buying again.... I sought of see STU as a bit of a trading share for me anyway and never a big holding.


Just a guesstimate how I might play it.

[winner (n)]

Why do you think that is Winner?

Turkey mentioned telling Fletchers to piss off but maybe we could forgive her that

Been around for nearly 8 years ....STU in mo better shape performance wise than when she started so time for her to move on.

Now she's lost her job at Arvida she prob not keen on that idea .....more time to spend here and with ERoad and trying to keep Orr under control

[winner (n)]

STU share price still on decline

Take out a few months during early stage of pandemic share price hasn't been this low this century