TRA - Turners Automotive Group

Started by Plata, Aug 10, 2022, 06:12 PM

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Waltzing

#1050
yup and if they did that well when the RBNZ was ....

just wait a few years as the shambles government sorts out the eco system trying to cut the red tape in the red ink economy...

art all government a bit of the shambles on the run?

RBNZ's new theme song ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_3eC35LoF4U

notice all those new tin sheds they are putting up squeezing the local car yards? Boy hamish must be scared SXXtless...

Basil

LOL full of envy I'd say. It's not fair you guys are posting years of consequtive recod results while I'm struggling to  stay afloat.

winner (n)

Quote from: Basil on Sep 22, 2024, 11:29 AMLOL full of envy I'd say. It's not fair you guys are posting years of consequtive recod results while I'm struggling to  stay afloat.

Amazing Hamish survived the meeting ......passionate shareholders who see Turners doing no wrong should have lynched him.

Basil

#1053
Quote from: winner (n) on Sep 22, 2024, 11:41 AMAmazing Hamish survived the meeting ......passionate shareholders who see Turners doing no wrong should have lynched him.
LOL, I think he'll be on a very short leash at the next annual meeting assuming he is brave enough to even attend. 

winner (n)

#1054
Só HY25 going to be greater than HY24 ... and a record

If PBT is $26.6m (another record) than rolling 12 month PBT will $50.0m (a record) ..and that $26.6m is only 3.5% growth so they'll smash through $50.0m

Surely second half of year might go backwards so the master seduced Todd can keep spinning the $50m yarn for another six months or so.


Waltzing

expecting most SP's to lift on the rising tide.. or in eco case a lower OCR...

TRA may not reach new records.. but does not mean its SP wont increase by 2030 and by a good amount....


Basil

#1056
Quote from: winner (n) on Sep 22, 2024, 01:23 PMSó HY25 going to be greater than HY24 ... and a record
This is what Todd said on 21 May about the outlook when announcing the record FY24 report, emphasis added.
QuoteOutlook: An anticipated deterioration in economic conditions during HY25, combined with cycling against a high-growth HY24 comparative period arising in part from extreme weather events, means we expect HY25 to be testing. Our near term focus remains on exceeding the $50M NPBT goal in FY25, despite the economic backdrop. Beyond FY25, Turners is well-placed to continue to make strong progress, thanks to the resilience of a diversified business model (activity and annuity), and clear strategy for further growth.
I draw a LOT of confidence about the future from how resilient they've proven to be over many years now.
Just quietly, I was expecting a soft trading update at the annual meeting, given how economically freezing it was over winter.  Fair to say I was also expecting some impact from bad and doubtful debtors, perhaps not HGH scope, but some impact, nevertheless. 
Fait to say the update was very pleasing indeed and appears to have exceeded their own earlier expectations.
I know Kingfish's investment manager Matt Peek has, or has had a meeting scheduled with Todd and Aaron this month.  I'd wager they liked what was discussed and the trading update and there's lots of money set to flow from Fisher funds to invest in Turners.
I told Matt at their ASM that the guys at Discovery liked Turners, (I asked them), but thought it was too illiquid for them to invest.  Interestingly, that comment didn't put Matt off.    I bought a few more Turners this week because I think the investment case and metrics are truly compelling and I think some of the fund managers are going to support it more going forward and weight of buying demand, the high and growing yield and growing eps should see the price move north in the years ahead.  How far north, time will tell but I am content to keep reinvesting my quarterly dividends with shares in lieu, thereby gradually growing my investment on a compounding quarterly basis.

Waltzing

heading up nicely break 60 this week or consolidation ahead...

not far from 5 now....

lots of OCR cuts coming by march 31 2025..

winner (n)

See 2 Cheap Cars report YTD sales volume uo 14% but margins and NPAT down quite a lot

Methinks maybe that Hamish guy who caused a stir at turners ASM about their 'high' margins was a Cheap Cars plant

Waltzing

if it hits 4 again well then with OCR cutting now here and OIL being cut as the SD's say they are going to PUMP PUMP PUMP ... maybe they have woken up and see that solar and wind while not effecting sale of OIL yet it will be a case of get that stuff out of the ground and sell it while you can....

wake up its time to PUMP PUMP before those assets are worthless....


TRA as a large scale mover of scrap metal then it maybe a great chance to top up... AGAIN....

Ferg

#1060
Basil was asking for some 10 year graphs and they were on my 'to do' list so here they are.  No commentary from me.....please interpret as you see fit.  My CAGR calculations in other threads were out by 1 period so I won't post any for fear of getting them wrong.

Some notes for context:
 ~ share count for 2015 was adjusted for the 10/1 stock split in 2016
 ~ I started with 2015 given that is the modern version of TRA
 ~ 2015 sales and NPAT reduced by $7m by me for the reorganisation gain which probably should have been in comprehensive income
 ~ I have excluded all unrealised 'other income' items and the 'wage subsidies' from total sales, but these remain for NPAT purposes (I interpret wage subsidies as a cost reimbursement, not sales income from trading)
 ~ 2022 only has 3 dividends but 2024 has 5 dividends hence the weird movements on the dividend graph
 
Forecasts:
 ~ FY25: Todd has stated $50m NPBT will be exceeded for 2025, which should yield >$36m NPAT at 28% tax (40c+ EPS)
 ~ FY28: Todd also provided a new target of $65m NPBT for 2028, which should yield about $47m NPAT (52c EPS on current share count)

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winner (n)

Interim divie 6.0 cents

Same as last year ....at least it wasn't less

Waltzing

its actually going up ...

not by much ... but it is incremental ...

Code Ex Dividend  Period Amount Supp. Imputation Payable Currency
===================================================================
TRA   17 Jul 2024   Final   7.500c   1.324c   2.917c   26 Jul 2024   NZD
TRA   11 Mar 2024   Interim   6.000c   1.059c   2.333c   27 Mar 2024   NZD
TRA   8 Jan 2024   Interim   6.000c   1.059c   2.333c   26 Jan 2024   NZD
TRA   10 Oct 2023   Interim   6.000c   1.059c   2.333c   27 Oct 2023   NZD
TRA   10 Jul 2023   Final   7.000c   1.235c   2.722c   28 Jul 2023   NZD
TRA   14 Apr 2023   Interim   6.000c   1.059c   2.333c   27 Apr 2023   NZD
TRA   11 Jan 2023   Interim   5.000c   0.882c   1.944c   26 Jan 2023   NZD
TRA   11 Oct 2022   Interim   5.000c   0.882c   1.944c   27 Oct 2022   NZD
TRA   18 Jul 2022   Interim   7.000c   1.235c   2.722c   28 Jul 2022   NZD
TRA   6 Apr 2022   Interim   6.000c   1.059c   2.333c   20 Apr 2022   NZD
TRA   17 Jan 2022   Interim   5.000c   0.882c   1.944c   27 Jan 2022   NZD
TRA   18 Oct 2021   Interim   5.000c   0.882c   1.944c   28 Oct 2021   NZD

Waltzing

OCR cuts are coming and they may be bigger than expected...

what if the RBNZ actually caused the recession or rather they panic'd and now is it a 2-5 or a 5-0 not long now....

remember nothing after NOV till feb...



Stoploss

Quote from: Waltzing on Oct 03, 2024, 04:50 PMOCR cuts are coming and they may be bigger than expected...

what if the RBNZ actually caused the recession or rather they panic'd and now is it a 2-5 or a 5-0 not long now....

remember nothing after NOV till feb...



What's with the 3 month holiday , Orrsum for some .