GNE - Genesis Energy

[Basil]

Breakout up through the 100 day moving average today.
Gosh things have changed a fair bit in just one month since the dark days of mid June @ $2.40

[lorraina]

Added to the wife's holding last Thursday at $2.735.
Only  3 or 4 months to the next divie.
Looked at CEN and MEL to spread her divie portfolio,but stuck with GNE's superior yield.

[winner (n)]

Breakout up through the 100 day moving average today.
Gosh things have changed a fair bit in just one month since the dark days of mid June @ $2.40

Even if yield drops to 7% gross by Christmas you'd still be happy with the $1 capital gain (shares at 370 odd)

Seems win win buying now eh ....that's cool

[Basil]

I should have backed another truck up at $2.40.  Never mind.  Got a truck load already so its all good.
Final divvy was paid on 8 October last year so less than 3 months to go to mop the next one up.
Expecting 8.9 or 9.0 cps  I am fully subscribed to the dividend reinvestment program so will get more shares @ 2.5% discount so effectively making that dividend a little higher and giving higher compounding income going forward.  When I finally hang up my abacus I will switch to cash dividends.
$3.70 is a bold call.  I'd be happy just to see it with a $3 handle again.

[Shareguy]

Looks like a good result.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/395604

[BlackPeter]

Looks like a good result.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/395604

What result?

Which of the reported on indicators do you use to assess their result?

I assume you noticed that this is just the quarterly performance report ...  ?

[Basil]

I think you take it as read people can read the headline of an announcement as well as the content LOL
Attachment with full details is here http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/GNE/395604/374951.pdf
Must admit I struggle with all the fine detail of these announcements.  So many different yardsticks to use its easy to get confused.
It would seem they're on target for their expected EBITDA which (going off memory) is in the low $400's million somewhere.  If they weren't they would have updated the guidance in my opinion.

[Plata]

Key things for me vs Q4 2021
Retail netback down 7%
Total generation down 20%
Average price received for generation down 29%

So not amazing, but likely reflective of power prices returning to normal following the dry year we had in 2021 which elevated prices. Coal generation massively down (69%) so likely a scaling back of generation at Huntley in response to lower prices and higher coal prices as well.

[Shareguy]

Ok performance report.  My bad

What I liked is the reduction in wholesale average fuel costs, increased loyality and declining churn in retail. Was positive for numbers. 

You would of thought that if they were not going to meet guidance of $430m to $440m Ebitdaf for FY22 then they would of stated.  Fy21 was $358M.

Market likes it. $2.85

[Basil]

Renewable generation up 32%
Gas production up 12%
LPG production up 7.2%
This is a biggie..... Weighted average fuel cost - Portfolio $53.41 mwh down a whopping 47.4%, If I interpret that right that means the cost of Generation nearly halved !

[Plata]

Renewable generation up 32%
Gas production up 12%
LPG production up 7.2%
This is a biggie..... Weighted average fuel cost - Portfolio $53.41 mwh down a whopping 47.4%, If I interpret that right that means the cost of Generation nearly halved !

Probably explains why the decrease in total generation and price received is not a big deal.

[mfd]

This is a biggie..... Weighted average fuel cost - Portfolio $53.41 mwh down a whopping 47.4%, If I interpret that right that means the cost of Generation nearly halved !

Just an artifact of lower coal generation I'd have thought. By the time you've paid for the carbon credits it's very expensive to turn coal into electricity compared to letting water fall through your turbines. This year the rain gods have been more generous to GNE allowing a cheaper cost of generation (and quieting the commentators complaining about huge coal usage last year).

[Basil]

Fair comment and welcome to the cool people's forum mfd.
I guess all those in Auckland with EV's can feel a bit more smug this winter knowing less Indonesian coal has been burned to charge their vehicles up

[THESTG]

Genesis powers up with new generator for remote Tuai Power Station

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/watch-genesis-powers-up-with-new-generator-for-remote-tuai-power-station/ZR66AO2K57Z7UNE4YOGWKRC44U/

Anyone got any more info on this? I don't subscribe to the N.Z. Herald.
Surprises me that there has not been an announcement on the NZX as this must be price sensitive. 

[teabag]

This was the first of three generators to be upgraded at Tuai, with the next two planned for upgrades over the next two summers.  In total, after the three upgrades generation will increase from 60 to 66MW, with some efficiencies, a nice little boost, but maybe not worthy of an NZX announcement