Residential - Boom or Bust

Started by Shareguy, Jul 02, 2022, 06:18 AM

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KW

#135
Oct 22, 2023, 12:14 PM Last Edit: Oct 22, 2023, 12:17 PM by KW
Chch biggest home builder has just put a development project up for sale.  It was supposed to be 61 townhouses, and they had been selling them OTP but obviously have not had enough presales, or are able to get financing for the build without them.  There are not many sites like this in Chch, and this is a primo location.  Times are clearly tough, even in Chch's booming market.  It was purchased for $12M in 2021, will be interesting to see how much it sells for now.

https://www.colliers.co.nz/en-nz/properties/stunning-merivale-development-site-with-scale/nzl-60-72-papanui-road-and-51-onslow-street-merivale-christchurch-city-canterbury/nzl67025640
Don't drink and buy shares in a downtrend, you bloody idiot.

Shareguy

#138
Nov 01, 2023, 01:17 PM
Gosh Tony says house prices to increase 10 percent 2024 and 15 percent 2025.

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/tony-alexander-expect-house-prices-to-rise-10-in-2024-and-15-in-2025-44546

kiwi2007

#139
Nov 07, 2023, 09:06 AM
Mass mortgagee sale: Two empty new Takapuna apartment blocks

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/mass-mortgagee-sale-two-empty-new-takapuna-apartment-blocks/IWODZIPGHZBWHGSM2LAM2MXXEA/

15 apartments by the look of it.

BlackPeter

#141
Nov 20, 2023, 09:58 AM
Buddle Findley predicts a post election property boom:

https://businessdesk.co.nz/sponsored/post-election-property-boom-predicted (probably paywalled)

They expect the biggest impact on build to rent and commercial. Might be a good time to hold some of these REITS like KPG or ARG :)

Waltzing

#142
Dec 19, 2023, 07:33 AM Last Edit: Dec 19, 2023, 07:39 AM by Waltzing
Though they have not yet allowed interest on buildings in the P&L as the NAT cabinet is full of lawyers and they dont as a whole know their accounting theory... except barristers with double degrees and they do exist.

which means they may not return to previous highs may be ARG get to 1.20 if they cant increase the DIV as NTA will have to come down if they keep playing with numbers.

Laywers dont believe in transaction models being anything other than thin AIR with a value denoted in currency back by something they can write down on paper....

and that is why bitcoin is still here becuase transactions on blockchain dont need lawyers to validate them,
 

Shareguy

#144
May 15, 2024, 01:58 PM
•   Yesterday's REINZ data for April continues to point to a tepid recovery in housing, with the 3rd YoY increase in median prices following 19 months of negative prints. Lead indicators are generally positive, although high inventories and low affordability should cap upside over the balance of the year. With sector valuations still close to decade lows, even a modest recovery in the housing market should support the RV sector outperforming in 2024. Nationwide prices +1% YoY to $790k, driven by AKL +6% to $1,050k and NZ ex-AKL flat at $700k. Prices were down -1% across NZ month on month. HPI, which adjusts for changes in mix was also down -1% MoM nationwide. When seasonally adjusted for the usual April tailwinds this was down -2% MoM. Nationwide house prices are now down -15% from Nov-21 peak. Days to sell down -3 days YoY to 43 which is a key lead indicator for sales volumes. Sales up 25% YoY to 5.6k nationwide which is a key lead indicator for prices. Stock levels continue to rise, up 2% MoM and 18% YoY to 33.8k.

BlackPeter

#147
Aug 02, 2024, 05:09 PM Last Edit: Aug 02, 2024, 05:18 PM by BlackPeter
Quote from: Shareguy on Aug 02, 2024, 12:30 PMHope no one here was invested in this.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/fma-gets-court-to-put-du-val-group-into-interim-receivership/KN26PFDCKJDWFNTWUK25NJS5RE/

Well, aren't these the people who asked for new funds with a history of parading luxury cars and clothing and not returning funds to their holders??

Anybody reading stocktalk in time would have refrained from investing ...

https://stocktalk.co.nz/index.php?topic=283.msg17380#msg17380

but even without this background info did it always appear to me as one of the best predictable company failures in decades :);

Shareguy

#148
Sep 09, 2024, 06:38 AM
Insert from Stuff

The average return of listed NZX stocks over the past 10 years was 68%, but the NZX20 had a weighted average return over the same period of 262%with a median return of 152%.
The property market returned 99%.
Lister said the NZX All Index, which covered the whole market, had recorded about 9.5% a year over the decade, or about 160% over the period.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/350407650/new-zealand-company-saw-its-share-price-jump-900-year
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