Geopolitical Risk

[Waltzing]

With IWI  seats in the LABOURED government now in open defiance of the PM surely the PM must be looking to move on to greener pastures becuase she has no control over her kindergarten play ground kiddies...

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/bryce-edwards-labour-needs-nanaia-mahuta-to-go-but-shes-too-powerful/4TNTR3T2VJBJPENKCWPS6XC55A/

its all over for the PM .... a lame duck; no ducks in a row... they are all quacking off in different directions... and the a black day with nothing to crow about ...


https://www.google.com/search?q=duck+quacking&rlz=1C1CHBF_en-GBNZ875NZ875&oq=duck+quacking&aqs=chrome..69i57j69i64.3989j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:338fe7ab,vid:SxTn1cNrSgI



 

[Waltzing]

New cold war?  still in the old one? Merkel just told us we havnt gone anywhere!!!

back to the old normal after all...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/12/08/cold-war-never-ended-says-angela-merkel-admits-germany-should/

[Waltzing]

and since we are in the New Old Cool war....

Arts Channel ... Cold war and cinema....

get the family lined up and start that education... does the current generation of under 30's  even know what it is?

Get them Red october out?  and other cold war movies?

gosh ... and now it turned hot and is as insane as its possibe to be...

luckly China has told Moscow to put the nukes away and it turns out crinimal country's are back and human nature is the same as it always been....

new era is breaking upon us and it looks like the old one after all...

George smilye anyone?  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Smiley

Atomic Blonde ...

Girls with the Dragon Tattoo...

The Right Stuff
 ...

Doctor Strange Love ...

Our Man in Havana ...

[Waltzing]

Its going to HOT up in the middle east with IRAN getting Modern Russian 4th generation jet fighters...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/12/09/russia-send-iran-top-fighter-jets-return-kamikaze-drones/

[BlackPeter]

With IWI  seats in the LABOURED government now in open defiance of the PM surely the PM must be looking to move on to greener pastures becuase she has no control over her kindergarten play ground kiddies...

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/bryce-edwards-labour-needs-nanaia-mahuta-to-go-but-shes-too-powerful/4TNTR3T2VJBJPENKCWPS6XC55A/

its all over for the PM .... a lame duck; no ducks in a row... they are all quacking off in different directions... and the a black day with nothing to crow about ...


https://www.google.com/search?q=duck+quacking&rlz=1C1CHBF_en-GBNZ875NZ875&oq=duck+quacking&aqs=chrome..69i57j69i64.3989j0j15&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:338fe7ab,vid:SxTn1cNrSgI

 

Maybe - but why would this be a Geo Political risk? I think you are more pointing to local opportunities ...

[Waltzing]

yes you are right BP its off topic.

The fractures in local politics though can lead to mounting pressure on so called united fronts globally.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/12/10/fear-full-blown-war-west-russia-nato-chief-warns/

There appears to be no end in site here....

and that bad for markets.

we could no movement in the NZX for years at this rate.

Geo politics could mean the NZX is a solely traders market.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/12/10/west-has-reason-fear-rational-vladimir-putin/

[BlackPeter]

Anything can happen.

Russia might crumble under the pressure of decades of economic mismanagement and a lost war - like the Soviet Union crumbled (quite unexpectedly I might say) in 1991. These events don't tend to give long notice.

However - while it would be unusual for losing autocrats, Putin might hold on to power in Russia and turn it into a much larger North Korea.

A triangle of evil (Russia, Iran, North Korea) could start (and lose) WW 3 in earnest, but inflict immeasurable damage on the world while doing so.

But whatever happens - there would be huge opportunities for New Zealand to turn into the Switzerland of the South Pacific. Swiss economy did not have issues during WW 2 - and if we have problems over the next decade or so, than it would be only due to our lack of vision and lack of flexibility.

Anyway - I am an optimist.

[Waltzing]

"Switzerland of the South Pacific."

with the universities embeding tribal values in every class including financial banking (assume they are) which has spread from the social science departments all across all public educational sectors i dont give you much chance of that.

even if ACT gets everything they want IWI has planted enough MP's into national to stop anything radical and National doesnt have the Chutzpah to anything radical...

NAY not buying it... country going no where and if SWIZZLAND arrives will fall off the chair....

do buy russia falling apart though as history repeats and lets face a new war in europe is here and right now Germany and france are still in "we cant see nothing" as the out house is buring down....

i dont think markets have prices this war in yet....

Does it look like the sanctions are going to work or fall apart slowly...

https://tvpworld.com/65019822/impasse-in-eu-talks-on-9th-sanction-package-against-russia

what ever happens it doesnt look clean cut and dried... but messy... and anything but certain.

 

[BlackPeter]

"Switzerland of the South Pacific."

with the universities embeding tribal values in every class including financial banking (assume they are) which has spread from the social science departments all across all public educational sectors i dont give you much chance of that.

even if ACT gets everything they want IWI has planted enough MP's into national to stop anything radical and National doesnt have the Chutzpah to anything radical...

NAY not buying it... country going no where and if SWIZZLAND arrives will fall off the chair....
...

Not saying it will happen, just pointed to an amazing opportunity.

... and while I agree that our current path could well point towards NZ turning into an inward looking remote island at the end of the world losing contact and neglecting to teach our children even maths and at least one international language properly ... there is a lot to say about the hit rate of linear extrapolation in highly complex chaotic systems.

Anyway ... lets talk again about the geopolitical risks, plenty of them around.

...

do buy russia falling apart though as history repeats and lets face a new war in europe is here and right now Germany and france are still in "we cant see nothing" as the out house is buring down....

i dont think markets have prices this war in yet....

Does it look like the sanctions are going to work or fall apart slowly...

https://tvpworld.com/65019822/impasse-in-eu-talks-on-9th-sanction-package-against-russia

what ever happens it doesnt look clean cut and dried... but messy... and anything but certain.

 

Not sure whether Russia has the stamina to stand through an extension of the war in Europe. Don't forget - at the end its an economy half the size of Italy - and they would stand against something like 50% of world GDP. As well - their soldiers are highly demotivated, they are not even able to fight a country 1/5th of their size and corruption and incompetence reigns in the Russian ranks. No - while they will happily seed discontent, they won't go and fight openly against Europe.

Markets seem to be optimistic. Most of my European shares look full green (i.e. they had their golden cross already over the last couple of months).

[Waltzing]

Lastest figures got Ugly Bear with GDP not far beghind italty but per head of population its look bad...

canada a long way ahead....

thing is winter is going to cost the west a lot more to fund UKE and Ugly bear has the money still flowing in.

Euro markets havnt priced in a winter where it has to supply Everything (alomst anyway) to UKE's

has anyone figured out what that cost is going to be and remeber it not just this winter but N(winters)....

the UKE's ant going to stop no way not even if the EUROS ask them to....

Maybe of the ugly bear force freeze to death in the coming months ....

but the UKE will only want to keep going if they cubs are all dead in front of them...

Has anyone totalled up the bill for this on euro markets?

now none of that made much sense as we are on to many key boards all at once....

Elon hurry up with Opto robot...  it can lift stuff but can it type? will it need to type?

it bound to be plugged into everything right?

ugly bear really isnt going to win if elon get Opto prime to mars first...

who said mars was going to a human place... robots would really go a lot better there than humans...

[Hectorplains]

Lastest figures got Ugly Bear with GDP not far beghind italty but per head of population its look bad...

canada a long way ahead....

thing is winter is going to cost the west a lot more to fund UKE and Ugly bear has the money still flowing in.

Euro markets havnt priced in a winter where it has to supply Everything (alomst anyway) to UKE's

has anyone figured out what that cost is going to be and remeber it not just this winter but N(winters)....

the UKE's ant going to stop no way not even if the EUROS ask them to....

Maybe of the ugly bear force freeze to death in the coming months ....

but the UKE will only want to keep going if they cubs are all dead in front of them...

Has anyone totalled up the bill for this on euro markets?

now none of that made much sense as we are on to many key boards all at once....

Elon hurry up with Opto robot...  it can lift stuff but can it type? will it need to type?

it bound to be plugged into everything right?

ugly bear really isnt going to win if elon get Opto prime to mars first...

who said mars was going to a human place... robots would really go a lot better there than humans...

Whoa... okay I have read this a couple of times.   I admire your free form structure and its reflection of the process of thought through a stream of consciousness style but I don't have much idea what it is that you're on about, eh?

[Waltzing]

HP  - you nailed it!!!!

as the world decends into a place that only https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nostradamus would , could predict.....

the stream of consciousness will reflect a whole series of unrelated thoughts which depicts one descending into a state of panic....

[BlackPeter]

Lastest figures got Ugly Bear with GDP not far beghind italty but per head of population its look bad...

canada a long way ahead....

thing is winter is going to cost the west a lot more to fund UKE and Ugly bear has the money still flowing in.

Euro markets havnt priced in a winter where it has to supply Everything (alomst anyway) to UKE's

has anyone figured out what that cost is going to be and remeber it not just this winter but N(winters)....

the UKE's ant going to stop no way not even if the EUROS ask them to....

Maybe of the ugly bear force freeze to death in the coming months ....

but the UKE will only want to keep going if they cubs are all dead in front of them...

Has anyone totalled up the bill for this on euro markets?

now none of that made much sense as we are on to many key boards all at once....

Elon hurry up with Opto robot...  it can lift stuff but can it type? will it need to type?

it bound to be plugged into everything right?

ugly bear really isnt going to win if elon get Opto prime to mars first...

who said mars was going to a human place... robots would really go a lot better there than humans...

Look, you seem to be currently in a quite dark mood.

Not too concerned about the coming winter in Europe (and neither are our relatives and friends living there). Amazing thing is how fast Europe is now moving to alternative energy supplies (including regeneratives). Russia is shooting itself into the feet - again and again, and it will take a long time for them to recover (if ever). For the short term - ever wondered why the price of oil is already dropping if everybody expects such terrible winters for the worlds largest economic union ahead?

And talking about the rebuild of Ukraine (and just to brighten you up) - have a wee look at what the rebuild of Germany did cost after WW2 (in relation to world GDP at that time) and check what it did to the economy (check 1946 to say 1966 ...); amazing times for Europe as well as for the supporting US. They called it the Golden Age of Capitalism!

Here is one useful source for data: https://www.statista.com/topics/8096/post-wwii-economic-boom/#topicOverview

And now put this into relation to the rebuild costs for the Ukraine and tell us how bad things really are ...

[Waltzing]

BP some of it is in jest...

BP to cheer us up youve had to lay down the worst cases in History!!!

Well laid out arguments in deed.   

Rock Rochan on the situation... the polish are a bit dark on it...

"keep calm, carry on and shoot Ruskkies..."

yes as a history major before going over the darl arts of double entry book keeping most of those suggections if yours have been in the library before being born...

there is even an orginal copy of "Defenders of New Zealand"...

Debt to GDP for europe is not looking good and Mario will tell you they havnt yet even started unwind the central banks QE from 2008...

BP they have a french lawyer in charge of the central bank... think Helen Clarke!!!!

Now debt to GDP is a big thing for markets and right now show us a european country with a good sound ratio...

NZ has a mich better one and so does AUS...

right now AUS is looking like the winner!

Ulgy bear.... https://www.rferl.org/a/interview-dominic-lieven-ukraine-russia-war-crimea/32171757.html

[BlackPeter]

BP some of it is in jest...

BP to cheer us up youve had to lay down the worst cases in History!!!

There is a reason I try to learn from the 1850/60 íes (various revolutions in Europe and American civil war) and 1930 ies / 40íes (Global economic crisis and WW2, obviously) when trying to assess what might happen in the 2010's / 20íes: If you follow human history, there is a real crisis every four generations (or one full human life) or so (some people call this time saeculum) - and this time is now.

Some interesting books in this context would be e.g.

Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail
by Ray Dalio (try your local library ... or buy the e-book)

or (already one generation old, but quite relevant):

The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy - What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny
by Neil Howe und William Strauss

Obviously - we don't know, whether we are already through the worst of this current crisis, but we can learn a lot from the patterns which played out in the past. And yes, we know, there will be an economic spring ... and terrible destruction is often a cause for a significant and long ongoing upturn.