Geopolitical Risk

[Davexl]

'Disaster just around the corner': Australia must not misread China's deadly strategy

https://www.smh.com.au/national/disaster-just-around-the-corner-australia-must-not-misread-china-s-deadly-strategy-20220623-p5avxp.html

[Davexl]

Putin will be livid as Russia officially becomes an economic basket case

https://www.watoday.com.au/business/the-economy/putin-will-be-livid-as-russia-officially-becomes-an-economic-basket-case-20220628-p5ax3d.html

[Ferg]

In times of war the first casualty is often the truth.  It's hard to know what is the truth, even from ones usual news source.  Thank you Dave for your efforts in this regard.

[kiwi2007]

Missiles hit Poland!

One or two options:
1. Russia did it deliberately? Unlikely.
2. Ukraine did it as a 'false flag op'? Once again unlikely.
3. Ukraine jammed or spoofed the Russian GPS (GLONASS) signal sending it/them off track? Or, if spoofed, possibly deliberately into Poland? A Possibility?
4. But most likely. Dmitriy had an extra bottle of his home made samogon and dialed the wrong co-ordinates in.
Edit
5. Even more likely, as it turns out, seems to have been a Ukrainian missile gone astray.

[mcdongle]

quite often there are videos posted of Ukranian AA missiles going astray and hitting buildings in cities.
Most of their stuff is quite old.
There was nothing in the way of this one so it flew to its limit i suppose.

[Waltzing]

Crypto is still the biggest risk... to the financial system.. could it be the new CDO...but even more deadly?

[Basil]

According to this, (see link that follows below), the total capitalization of all forms of Crypto is now down to just under 1 Trillion, down from nearly $3 Trillion a while back.  That's quite some drop so I think we've already seen most of the blowback from this bubble bursting.  https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/

According to CNBC this morning the total value of housing just in the US is $29 Trillion, about 30 times the size of the global crypto market.  With 30 year mortgage finance now about 6.7% up from just 3.0% at the beginning of 2022, affordability is now a key issue.  Maybe real estate is the next shoe to drop assuming Putin doesn't create even worse problems or other dictators in China or North Korea beforehand.

[Left Field]

Bit of a stretch comparing a possible property meltdown to the current crypto meltdown isn't it??

[Basil]

I'm just pointing out the relative size of the two markets.  Real estate starting to come off the boil in the US and the Fed committed to crushing inflation and asking questions later.  Any real chance of a soft landing ?  What if Trump gets back into power in 2024 ?

[Left Field]

......Any real chance of a soft landing ?  What if Trump gets back into power in 2024 ?

Exactly........Beagles and pessimists always find a bone to chew.

I prefer optimism.

[Waltzing]

Even though CP is small at the ,moment the fact that cracks have appeared before it controls the worlds transaction based platforms is possible a good thing.

what most people dont realise is the long term plan for the tech being rolled out and then the counter parties would be a whole lot bigger than they are today.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-Term_Capital_Management

Pension funds are being caught up these platforms already.

Is it a sign that the global system is more fragile then we think? Bank of international settlements does it have any insight into CP or is CP already out of control and a slow train wreck.
 

[Waltzing]

Some pretty good shooting from the crews on the german anti aircraft tanks.

one crew downing 10 drones near odesa.

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russia-gepard-antiaircraft-drones-switzerland-ammunition-german/32162844.html

[BlackPeter]

Some pretty good shooting from the crews on the german anti aircraft tanks.

one crew downing 10 drones near odesa.

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russia-gepard-antiaircraft-drones-switzerland-ammunition-german/32162844.html

I guess this is the dream job for the Gepard - exactly what it is made for. Hit rate in the high 90% even when taking down faster objects like ultrasound fighters (which the drones are not), lots of shots in a row (basically unlimited - belt fed like a machine gun) and very cheap to get the targets down. How much is a 35 mm shell?

One Gepard should be enough for a drone swarm, though normally they come in prides of 4 ...

Only problem is the range - roughly 6km from memory, i.e. you need a lot of Gepards to cover the full length of the Ukrainian border ...

[Waltzing]

Lucky the UKE's are well lead army and the politicans are doing a pretty good job of global PR...

european arms manufacures look like they dont have the capacity or the governments the budget to keep up with the UKE gunners rate of fire.

reading in das spegial the lastest interview of  Merkel gives some insight into german politics...

https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/a-year-with-ex-chancellor-merkel-you-re-done-with-power-politics-a-f46149cb-6deb-45a8-887c-8aa37cc9b3c3

[Waltzing]

A world at war ... the TV series...  history constantly repeating itself in patterns of behaviours.

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-children-russia-chechnya-camps/32164367.html