Retail Stocks

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Weekly Update:

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[winner (n)]

RetailWatch June sales  data out

Changes over June last year below

Fuel and Travel big increases .... rest pretty dismal (considering inflation)

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[LaserEyeKiwi]

Weekly Update:


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[winner (n)]

Thanks LEK for the updates

PEs are interesting .... maybe MHJ currently is the cheapest but not by much?

[KW]

Massive breakout in the Australian ecommerce retail stocks today (KGN, TPW, RBL).  Could be a sign the bottom is in. 

[Basil]

Shocked indeed.  I remain very cautious.

[Left Field]

Massive breakout in the Australian ecommerce retail stocks today (KGN, TPW, RBL).  Could be a sign the bottom is in. 

I'm calling it that way. (Call me crazy.)  Mind you, I'm talking NZX. I think retail still in for a hard time for a while yet.

General market likely to track sideways for a while IMO...... while depending on the coming results season, some individual stocks will shine.

[winner (n)]

A few insights in this article about Aussie retail


"Some people will be pulling back [on spending] while others are still spending like crazy, but on average people are spending like crazy," he says. ..... but 2023 might not be as good


https://www.morningstar.com.au/credit/article/are-the-glory-days-over-for-the-retail-sector/225675?utm_campaign=Morning%20Note%20Free%20Email%2020220805&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Email%20Campaign

[winner (n)]

Chart below gives one an idea of what 'spending like crazy' looks like (re article posted earlier

The total less food related line is a proxy for discretionary spend

The clothing line is there because its part of my HLG performance overview -- Glassons AU must have a lot of customers spending like crazy

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[KW]

Spending patterns are likely to change as a result of inflation - for instance, the massive increase in renovation costs are putting people off renovating, but they still have the funds they originally budgeted for it, so will they spend this money on maybe redecorating and buying new furniture instead? 

We are still living under Covid restrictions in NZ, so its hard to know what the rest of the world is doing unless you leave NZ.  But as far as I can tell, life is back to normal everywhere else, whereas here you dont even want to enter a shopping mall because you have to wear a mask, let alone spend 2-3 hours wandering around the place.   So a lot of NZ retail won't pick up until Covid restrictions are dropped.

[lorraina]

My first business was a toy shop.When NZ went into a recession people stopped buying big ticket items, which left them with plenty of money to send on their children's toys.
Briscoes online sales were up 22%,so online channel is still proving its worth,therefore make sure the retailer you invest in has  strong online sales.

[winner (n)]

Card Spend July

Retail card spending down 0.2 percent in July

https://www.stats.govt.nz/news/retai...rcent-in-july/

That's seasonally adjusted

v last year Total down 0.5% / Core Retail down 0.9% / Durables down 4.0%

Durables probably most relevant for listed retail - so down 4.0% not too good

Core Retail value down 0.9% but number of transactions down 8.8% gives some idea of volume and inflation impacts

[Basil]

Looks like a bifurcated market.  On one hand many are struggling with the cost of living crisis and on the other based on evidence I have seen there is no shortage of people lining up to buy some high quality lifestyle assets.  I guess it comes down to the have's and have not's.

[BlackPeter]

Looks like a bifurcated market.  On one hand many are struggling with the cost of living crisis and on the other based on evidence I have seen there is no shortage of people lining up to buy some high quality lifestyle assets.  I guess it comes down to the have's and have not's.

Correct. This is how growing inequality looks like. Gap between Rich and Poor is increasing until the poor people revolt. Quite funny to observe this under a Labour government, but hey - you can't fix problems with good intentions alone. We better prepare for the coming revolution ....

[Basil]

To your point BP  https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/everything-is-so-expensive-some-kiwis-working-70-hour-weeks-to-survive-as-second-job-epidemic-hits/ar-AA10sN37?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=54a5c5bed2f6492185f1d87e164d27e4
I think the nub of the issue for many is the cost of housing and the rate of pay.
Got chatting to a guy yesterday who came from Perth and one of my nephews has very recently settled there.
He got a good quality brick and tile home for his family for $379K on 2% deposit.  That's right, 2% deposit !  Pay rate is nearly 50% more than he was earning here.  If I was a young pup struggling with cost of living I'd start a new life there.

Labour were right to raise the minimum wage and it needs to keep going up at least at the rate of inflation each year.