HLG - Hallenstein Glassons Holdings

[Arbroath]

Sounds like a lot of wishful thinking on this thread. HLG are an excellent retailer but the environment is tough with a lot of margin pressures. Freight, currency weakness, higher wages all negatives but hopefully a clean trading year in prospect.

[Hectorplains]

Sounds like a lot of wishful thinking on this thread. HLG are an excellent retailer but the environment is tough with a lot of margin pressures. Freight, currency weakness, higher wages all negatives but hopefully a clean trading year in prospect.

Indeed - this article, this morning:

 https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2210/S00117/minor-improvements-in-retail-outlook-but-inflationary-pressures-remain.htm

 

[Waltzing]

Sold there them shares !!!!

Round em up ....

Bib them YUUUUPPP

Sell hem down!!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_VbwZsYPwY

[Basil]

Sounds like a lot of wishful thinking on this thread. HLG are an excellent retailer but the environment is tough with a lot of margin pressures. Freight, currency weakness, higher wages all negatives but hopefully a clean trading year in prospect.

Maybe you missed this bit

Future Outlook

The first eight weeks of the new financial year have seen Group sales improve
by +68.49% on the prior year.

Its been widely reported on CNBC that container rates are coming down from their Covid peak.
I might have jumped the gun a bit early...but if you wait until conditions are more obviously better the shares won't be in the low $5's in my opinion.
People are going to have to get used to paying more for their clothes because of the factors you mentioned and I think the sales results year to date suggest that they are.  HLG are N.Z. oldest listed company...you have to trust some companies to do the business for you and HLG have earned my respect and trust over many years unlike a lot of the other investment dross out there.

[Waltzing]

AUS retail stats are where to look as winner does... NZ retails not that important for this stock...

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/03/ocean-shipping-orders-are-signaling-a-big-drop-in-consumer-demand.html

[KW]

I dont think you can blame the industry environment, some retailers are absolutely smashing it.  Quality outs itself in times like these.

https://amp.theaustralian.com.au/business/retail/cotton-on-owner-nigel-austin-strikes-gold-as-earnings-hit-501m/news-story/82ca866a4963ebbda0ae190acd5552ea

Cotton On, one of the country's largest fashion retailers, has defied the gloom in the sector to double its profits and pay its reclusive owner a big dividend.  Earnings reached $501m for the retail chain mostly owned by billionaire Nigel Austin, making it one of the most profitable Australian retailers in recent history.
Net profit more than doubled to $126.4m as revenue surged to $2.13bn, the company's most recent financial report, obtained by The Australian, reveals. The Cotton On results compared to a $61m net profit in 2021 and revenue of $1.32bn.

[Playa]

I went shopping in Newmarket today and was shocked to see so many shops vacant and looking for a new tenant. I wonder if it is a reflection of how tough retail has been, or still is? 

[Hectorplains]

Both the Datamine monthly overview of NZ's electronic retail spend - that is in store and online and the Stats Dept Retail trade survey quarterly will be out soon. 
 

[Basil]

No question the year ahead will see the wheat sorted from the chaff in terms of who's going to do well and who's going to fail.  Interesting comment on pricing intentions this quarter, retailers expect to increase prices another 5% after a 6% increase last quarter.  Lot of talk about margin pressure but the smart operators are managing that well with price increases and reduced discounting.
https://www.interest.co.nz/business/117949/latest-survey-retailers-shows-still-significant-number-are-unsure-if-their

[Jay]

I went shopping in Newmarket today and was shocked to see so many shops vacant and looking for a new tenant. I wonder if it is a reflection of how tough retail has been, or still is? 

Been like that for a while, they either went into the Westfield or closed up all together, though still quite a few empty places in Westfield last time I was in there 6-12 months ago, more so ground floor

[winner (n)]

Indeed - this article, this morning:

 https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2210/S00117/minor-improvements-in-retail-outlook-but-inflationary-pressures-remain.htm

 

That Greg Harford a miserable soul ... but then when 30% of the retailers he 'represents' say they mightn't be around in years time he might be worried about his own job.

[Waltzing]

AUS sales is what this stock is about they could shut down NZ and it would not matter... who care what NZ retail is....

If retail NZ get to that point it could be a whole sale slaughter at the next election and the reserve bank might find itself under seige.....

they will storm the building.. since the most up to date data is in fact nor processed by the reserve bank but by a computer software system in a north island university run by a germany data scienctist we can doubt that the reserve bank is much use anyway. It could be replaced by a software program.

central HAMTRON used to rock from thursday on now the party city is dead and has been for a long time well before the bug. It never really recovered after the GFC.

ever growing stock of empty retail shops.

[BlackPeter]

I went shopping in Newmarket today and was shocked to see so many shops vacant and looking for a new tenant. I wonder if it is a reflection of how tough retail has been, or still is? 

Look at it from the bright side ... less competitors means more business for the surviving shops ;

[winner (n)]

Stats NZ Electronic Card Spend September month

Apparel up 97% on September last year - that follows a 66% increase in August month

Similar picture in Australia

Is comapred to covid lockdown periods but heck that's a great start to the year for HLG (who did say first 8 weeks sales up more than 60% v pcp)

Overall total sales from this report look OK - headline said 'Retail card spending up in September'

[Basil]

Stats NZ Electronic Card Spend September month

Apparel up 97% on September last year - that follows a 66% increase in August month

Similar picture in Australia

Is comapred to covid lockdown periods but heck that's a great start to the year for HLG (who did say first 8 weeks sales up more than ]68%[ v pcp)

Overall total sales from this report look OK - headline said 'Retail card spending up in September'

Fixed that for ya    Excellent, thanks for sharing.
I think people are well and truly over this pandemic and keen to get out and enjoy themselves again and some fresh new clothes is very much part of that.
Starting to wonder if HLG will have enough stock to meet this explosion in demand ?