TRA - Turners Automotive Group

[Basil]

Amazing what different people can read into the same statement.
To the best of my knowledge this is slightly ahead of analysts' expectations and is a business that's showing great resiliency in these challenging times.

I'd prefer to simply call it what it is, a good solid market update.  I think it's all too easy to forget that earlier this year we had more than 20,000 cases of Covid a day and that was enough to keep a lot of people away from doing any shopping in person.

[winner (n)]

My spreadsheet shows EPS growth last 5 years 9.0% pa - and average PE over that time 11

Forecast EPS growth next 3 years 4.1% pa

Share price currently about right .... maybe

Seems it's only the dividend that's supporting the share price (and it seems that won't be keeping up with inflation)

Maybe we could invent something called the 'the option value of the Turners dividend' to justify holding

[Basil]

If they can pay 24 cps this year fully imputed (24 / 0.72 = 33.33 cps gross), that's 9.5% gross yield on $3.50 plus more growth to come when we climb out the other side of the looming potential recession.  I'm very happy indeed to be paid so well to enjoy future growth as well as such a fantastic yield.
Don't need to create any fancy optionality around that, it's a compelling hold in my opinion.

[winner (n)]

Had to leave the lounge tonight

Wife was watching One News (or had the telly on) and that TINA has come on twice ... lots of screaming, Truly awful ....and then cars tooting just too much

Awful

[Basil]

Award winning advertising is not always because its super pleasant or funny, its because its creative and effective.  I love Tina and want to give her a big hug 

[winner (n)]

You have to admire how marketing people love marketing people ......self praise and all that

Winners are grinners says Todd ...and I don't think he was referring to me lol

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/todd-hunter-b313194_winners-are-grinners-turners-and-tina-scooped-activity-6976116352256237568-inOD/?originalSubdomain=nz

[Basil]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GC5E8ie2pdM

I'm expecting a "thoroughbred" performance in the years ahead.
Bet you will find it hard not to punt on any horse called Tina or Turners next time you see a horse named like that at the races 

[winner (n)]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GC5E8ie2pdM

I'm expecting a "thoroughbred" performance in the years ahead.
Bet you will find it hard not to punt on any horse called Tina or Turners next time you see a horse named like that at the races 

There's one called TINA AGAIN running around at the moment ...pretty useless

[winner (n)]

I suppose its a couple of million well spent

But I hope the finance guy is doing his job properly and asking the marketing guys 'show me the return on that 'investment'' .... marketing people always say such spend is an 'investment' but invariably never know an 'investment' in what except for a bit of glitz and glamour


From F22 financials - the finance guy might ask why has advertising gone up $1.8m on pcp and npbt up $5.4m ..... seems advertising costs increasing at a much higher rate than sales and profits ..... but its all about building a stronger future eh
Maybe more colour around this when they print half year next week --- no doubt TINA will get many mentions

[Basil]

I think the acid test for whether marketing spend really is an investment is defined by whether you're really growing your market share and Turners are certainly doing very well in that regard !  I think its money well spent and definitely is an investment.  Certainly, if you look how Tammy has helped build Rod Duke's empire over the decades there's real value in getting someone with a real sparkle to their personality that people can identify with and sticking with them over the long run.   That's exactly why I encouraged Todd to get Tina locked into a long term contract.

[winner (n)]

I think the acid test for whether marketing spend really is an investment is defined by whether you're really growing your market share and Turners are certainly doing very well in that regard !  I think its money well spent and definitely is an investment.  Certainly, if you look how Tammy has helped build Rod Duke's empire over the decades there's real value in getting someone with a real sparkle to their personality that people can identify with and sticking with them over the long run.  That's exactly why I encouraged Todd to get Tina locked into a long term contract.

You deserve a medal for encouraging Todd to do that

Turners for yeas have been raving about gaining market share and I was always surprised when it always seemed to be about 5% and over the years didn't seem to show much in the way of the touted gains

It seems that even in early 2021 it was just over 5%

But since TINA has arrived it seems that market share went up to 7.3% in April this year .... and the way Todd is talking it could even be close to 10% when they print their half year year numbers next week.

Wow - we have to put it down to TINA don't we ..... I was wrong, it's money well spent. TINA is wonderful and the marketing team have done a stupendous job over the last year

Chart from Turners preso

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[Basil]

I think realistically it will take a few years to get up to 10% market share but I'm feeling confident they're on the right track.  Tina an excellent fit with Turners customer demographic in the same way Tammy is with Briscoes demography in my opinion.  Relatable, relentless positivity!

[winner (n)]

Hey Basil - market share already 9% as at July ....and 'growing strongly'

They updated that chart at the ASM

WOW ...GO TINA

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[Basil]

WOW...thanks mate, it's been a while since I read that presentation....that's VERY impressive !

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/397074/376670.pdf

[winner (n)]

Roadmap to $50m NPBT  .... in FY25

From $43.1m in F22

Not much of a promise is it --- a miserable 5% pa growth ..... when words are heaps more positive than that

But then the first six months of that 3 year road isn't that flash - marginal growth