TRA - Turners Automotive Group

Started by Plata, Aug 10, 2022, 06:12 PM

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BlackPeter and 2 Guests are viewing this topic.

lorraina

I was out this morning so missed the agm.
However I have just watched it on YouTube.
Excellent CEO,CFO and board.
A lot of questions which were fully answered .
A very positive meeting.
They do what they say they will do.

winner (n)

Quote from: lorraina on Sep 18, 2024, 02:22 PMI was out this morning so missed the agm.
However I have just watched it on YouTube.
Excellent CEO,CFO and board.
A lot of questions which were fully answered .
A very positive meeting.
They do what they say they will do.

Road map to $5 didn't work out as planned ....maybe just too exuberant at the time he came up with that

lorraina

May-24 set new target of $65M NPBT by FY28
• We achieved our FY24 target a year ahead,and remain on
track for exceeding our $50M NPBT FY25 goal.
• Assumes organic growth out of Auto Retail with new
branches planned plus continued wholesale to retail
transition. Recovery in Finance business and Credit
management + direct to consumer growth in Insurance.

Basil

#1023
Deeply impressive how they're performing.  We've just been through the coldest winter I can recall in many, many years, (I am not talking about the temperature here), and they're on track to post yet another record annual result, that's five years of records in a row despite all the incredible challenges since Covid arrived in early 2020 and N.Z. being in recession for what feels like forever and a day.

Makes me ponder if Turners really is the classic recession proof stock, basically selling a staple item that people buy no matter what the economy is doing or is this a lesson we're getting here in brand power or perhaps it's their true marketing brilliance, the "Tina" effect...probably elements of many factors here including in difficult times people stick to brands they trust, (they keep winning Readers digest most trusted brand year after year).  Suppose you could say who cares what all the ingredients of their "secret sauce" are, it's working and that's all that matters.  I can only wonder how well they are going to fly when we finally see better economic times.  I suspect the Tina effect has a lot to do with their robust performance just like Tammy has had a lot to do with Briscoes success over the years.  Interesting price action today and on very good volume for a change.  Has the tide turned on the share price direction?...you be the judge.
Holders will know there's a quarterly dividend due late next month too.  I am expecting an announcement sometime in the next few weeks.

Waltzing

pretty big div now... imagine..are they going to stay at this payout for this year.. probably as they just uuuped it....

next year?

imagine by 2030...

Basil

#1025
From memory Jarden reckon 40 cps fully imputed divvies by FY30.  From today's presentation Dividends have been growing at a CAGR of 11%  If that continues from FY 24's 25 5 cps to FY30 I calculate divvy income of 47.7 cps fully imputed = 66.25 cps gross. TRA is the NZX's premier dividend growth stock  No other company on the NZX can boast a consistent dividend growth rate of that magnitude.

Greekwatchdog

For Bars review

At its ASM, Turners Automotive (TRA) guided to a record first-half performance for 1H25, implying profit before tax (PBT) will be greater than the NZ$25.7m it reported in 1H24. TRA continues to execute admirably against a challenging economic and industry backdrop. Sales volumes in the Auto Retail division are tracking ahead of FY24, in line with data from our sales tracker, suggesting continued market share gains (industry sales from April to July 2024 were -6% behind the same period in 2023). TRA remains on track to exceed its FY25 PBT target of NZ$50m, with management noting the resilience of the Auto Retail division and continued growth in Finance and Insurance, despite broader economic challenges. While there are likely to be some seasonality impacts in 2H25, we lift our profit before tax (PBT)
estimate by +1% to NZ$51.4m. We continue to view TRA's 12-month forward PE of ~10x as undemanding in light of the robust earnings growth outlook and building track record of execution. TRA has also expanded its service offering and addressable market with investments in Quashed and My Auto Shop. Retain OUTPERFORM, with an increased target price of NZ$5.41.

link
NZX Code   TRA
Share price   NZ$4.42
Target price   NZ$5.41 (from 5.30)
Risk rating   Medium
C&ESG rating   n/a
Market cap   NZ$391m
Avg daily turnover   60.8k (NZ$271k)

link
Financials: Mar/24A   25E   26E   27E
Rev (NZ$m)   362.1   387.4   414.5   436.6
NPAT* (NZ$m)   33.0   37.0   41.0   45.4
EPS* (NZc)   37.3   41.9   46.4   51.4
DPS (NZc)   25.5   27.0   30.0   34.0
Imputation (%)   100   100   100   100
*Based on normalised profits

Valuation (x)   24A   25E   26E   27E
PE           11.8   10.6   9.5   8.6     
EV/EBIT           33.9   51.8   47.5   45.8
EV/EBITDA   21.5   26.5   24.5   23.3
Price / NTA   3.4   3.1   2.7   2.5
Cash div yld (%)5.8   6.1   6.8   7.7
Gross div yld (%)8.0   8.5   9.4   10.7

What's changed?
Earnings: Our PBT estimates rise +1% in FY25 to NZ$51.4m, and +1% in FY26 and FY27.
Target price: Our target price rises +11cps to NZ$5.41, reflecting earnings changes and higher peer multiples.
Expanding the service offering
TRA has invested NZ$1m for 13% of Quashed, a digital insurance platform. TRA's investment into Quashed will broaden its digital footprint and enhance its presence in the growing insurtech space, aligning with its focus on expanding supplementary services around its Auto Retail offering. TRA has also acquired a 50% stake for NZ$3m in My Auto Shop, an online car servicing platform, and will integrate digital services into its ecosystem. TRA sees a significant opportunity to develop My Auto Shop as a scaled player in NZ's highly fragmented NZ$3b auto repair market. The business also provides a significant cross-sell opportunity to over 200k TRA customers across its Cars, Autosure Insurance, and Oxford Finance divisions, enhancing customer engagement and boosting adjacent revenue streams. We had previously noted TRA's lack of exposure to the parts and services market, in contrast to many of its peers.

Branch expansion pipeline growing
TRA provided an update on its site development pipeline. It has completed the development of sites in Timaru and Napier, which have both exceeded expectations and are contributing positively to profitability (~$NZ500k annual profit contribution each). Looking ahead, the company has several key site developments planned, including a new truck and damaged vehicles site in Tauranga (Tauriko), and three new car retail sites in Christchurch, set to be completed by the end of FY26. A further site in Tauranga will be delivered in FY27. These new sites and expansions are expected to deliver a combined additional profit of NZ$2.2m annually.

Left Field

Quote from: Basil on Sep 10, 2024, 11:26 AMGood questions for the team at the annual meeting on 18 Sept.
1. How has trading been year to date for FY25 ?
2. Are you still expecting an uptick in 2H FY25 ?
3. How much did you pay for your investment in https://myautoshop.co.nz/ ?
4. When do you expect that investment to be eps accretive?


Were these questions asked? Any relevant responses to 3 & 4?
"The difficulty lies not in new ideas... but in escaping from old ideas." (J M Keynes.)

winner (n)

Quote from: Left Field on Sep 19, 2024, 07:30 AMWere these questions asked? Any relevant responses to 3 & 4?

$3.35m for half of My Auto Shop

EPS accretive ...no doubt sometime but as they 'become a scale player in the highly fragmented, estimated $3 billion auto repair market in NZ.' the returns will be enormous


BlackPeter

Quote from: winner (n) on Sep 18, 2024, 04:17 PMRoad map to $5 didn't work out as planned ....maybe just too exuberant at the time he came up with that

Actually - quite happy with both SP development as well as dividend yield since I started to take a position roughly a year ago.

Neither boards nor managers can control the share price (which is shaped by lots of parameters outside of their control) ... and maybe this is the lesson for Todd: Never ever set targets you are not able to control :)

Anyway - only another month or so to the next juicy dividend payment - and the capital gains since Buy-in can be enjoyed on a daily basis :) ;

Waltzing

#1030
If they keep a stable DIV the market will rerate the SP at a future date...

mean while it never got below 4 for a back up the truck moment...

BRIS on the other hand has shown how local stocks have all round have been hit hard and now recovering...

50 Basis point cut to US rate over night shows the way forward though the market now thinks that may mean recession is coming.. again.. was supposed to have hit the US already...

the ever approaching recession the US retail shopper just does not know has arrived... is supposed to be here... again... will the RBNZ panic again? 

Basil

Hopefully RBNZ will follow suit and cut 50 bps on 9 October.  Economy really needs a 100 bps cut in my opinion. 

Waltzing

hold well onto 2030 and SP should be well over 6 ...

winner (n)

Quote from: Basil on Sep 19, 2024, 09:46 AMHopefully RBNZ will follow suit and cut 50 bps on 9 October.  Economy really needs a 100 bps cut in my opinion. 

Economy not doing too bad

If Reactive Adrian gets over excited and over reacts watch the carnage that will follow

Basil

#1034
Quote from: winner (n) on Sep 19, 2024, 11:48 AMEconomy not doing too bad
https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/129634/david-hargreaves-assesses-prospects-forthcoming-quarterly-gdp-figures-which-are
You sure about that mate?  Turners performance against the bleakness of the economy is quite extraordinary.  Certainly, its notable the quite stark difference in Turners very positive market update yesterday as compared to 2CC's update today.