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ATM-A2 MILK

Started by Shareguy, Jun 24, 2022, 09:03 PM

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Minimoke

Quote from: winner (n) on Sep 27, 2024, 03:21 PMHope it's not heaps more stainless steel ....marketing is their game
Locally Pokeno is for sale. And Dairworks remains on the market.

Minimoke

Quote from: winner (n) on Sep 27, 2024, 03:26 PMBe funny if they bought Synlait ...
But no way
No movement on SML's SP. So we can conclude its nothing to do with them.

bulltrap

Quote from: Minimoke on Sep 27, 2024, 03:36 PMNo movement on SML's SP. So we can conclude its nothing to do with them.

BUB.ASX is also up today on solid volume. Coincidence? No announcement there, but also no trading halt.

Motley Fool links both of these to China stimulus measures, but if so IMO it's a big overreaction by the market. And it also doesn't meld with A2's comment on some potential acquisition by them.

KW

Quote from: bulltrap on Sep 27, 2024, 03:59 PMBUB.ASX is also up today on solid volume. Coincidence? No announcement there, but also no trading halt.

Motley Fool links both of these to China stimulus measures, but if so IMO it's a big overreaction by the market. And it also doesn't meld with A2's comment on some potential acquisition by them.

Both stocks saw substantial and unususal volume in the last hour of trading last night, and first thing this morning.  It could be related to the Chinese stimulus measures, and perhaps A2 has misinterpreted that as a leak of whatever it is they have in the works?

BUB is currently valued at $112M, (just a smidge over 1 x their FY25 revenue of $100M) so even if A2 did pick them up it would hardly be a material acquisition for A2.  
Don't drink and buy shares in a downtrend, you bloody idiot.

bulltrap

Quote from: KW on Sep 27, 2024, 04:20 PMBUB is currently valued at $112M, (just a smidge over 1 x their FY25 revenue of $100M) so even if A2 did pick them up it would hardly be a material acquisition for A2. 

Just throwing it out there, and I agree it doesn't add up - if A2 was planning to acquire Bubs and it leaked, you'd expect Bubs to be soaring and A2 more muted, yet both are trading up 10-15%.

Another theory floating around is A2 acquisition of Fonterra brands. One point in favour of Bubs is that A2 could afford a cash purchase. Fonterra brands were expected to fetch a few $B, which would be a stretch for A2.

KW

Quote from: bulltrap on Sep 27, 2024, 04:35 PMJust throwing it out there, and I agree it doesn't add up - if A2 was planning to acquire Bubs and it leaked, you'd expect Bubs to be soaring and A2 more muted, yet both are trading up 10-15%.

Another theory floating around is A2 acquisition of Fonterra brands. One point in favour of Bubs is that A2 could afford a cash purchase. Fonterra brands were expected to fetch a few $B, which would be a stretch for A2.

Another possibility is Reckitt is looking to offload Mead Johnson, which has been a bit of a disaster for them.  Although I dont know that anyone would want to buy them with the lawsuits hanging over it (IF being held responsible for the death of premature babies).
Don't drink and buy shares in a downtrend, you bloody idiot.

Minimoke

well that was a bit of a fizzer. A2 in early stage discussions to buy a manufacturing facility.

KW

Quote from: Minimoke on Sep 30, 2024, 02:22 PMwell that was a bit of a fizzer. A2 in early stage discussions to buy a manufacturing facility.

maybe they should try making the one they've got profitable first?
Don't drink and buy shares in a downtrend, you bloody idiot.

winner (n)

Quote from: KW on Sep 30, 2024, 03:50 PMmaybe they should try making the one they've got profitable first?

Agree ...but will it ever be that profitable?

Marketers don't make good production people

KW

Number of marriages in 2024 at a record low - down 16.6% from 2023.  Babies follow marriage.  
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/04/china/china-marriages-on-track-low-intl-hnk/index.html
Don't drink and buy shares in a downtrend, you bloody idiot.

lorraina

Babies follow marriage.
Thought it was the other way round.?.lol

BlackPeter

Quote from: lorraina on Nov 12, 2024, 09:09 AMBabies follow marriage.
Thought it was the other way round.?.lol

Just one of these chicken and egg discussions, though - if we think about it - there does not need to be a correlation at all. Babies without marriage are not unheard of, and the other way around it happens as well.

Anyway - globe reached peak human, i.e., no matter who is first - from here # of people will drop. Bad for infant formula, but probably good for the planet.

raW tent Buffer

Quote from: BlackPeter on Nov 12, 2024, 10:24 AMAnyway - globe reached peak human, i.e., no matter who is first - from here # of people will drop. Bad for infant formula, but probably good for the planet.

I think you mean the population growth rate has peaked... global population not expected to peak until the latter part of this century. same sentiment applies though, a2 will have to diversify.
"Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble."

BlackPeter

Quote from: raW tent Buffer on Nov 12, 2024, 10:35 AMI think you mean the population growth rate has peaked... global population not expected to peak until the latter part of this century. same sentiment applies though, a2 will have to diversify.

OK - there are a handful of models around, predicting peak human somewhere between now and 2085.

We might sit together in 2100 to review which one of the models was right ... but, as you say - it doesn't really matter for A2. Whenever (within the range of above models) humanity will sit at peak human - A2's target markets (NZ, Australia, US and above all China) are clearly already dropping now. Birth rates ways below sustainability  and overall population (net migration) dropping as well.

raW tent Buffer

Finally some good news for shareholders, guidance upgrade and a divi coming. Should stem the SP bleed
"Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble."