StockTalk

From the sun flower country. An English Man abroad .... its 1938...

A Psychopath has stolen a country and now is hell bent on war ..

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-1G7ckaNJho

The west is losing ...

Is the west losing the war in ukraine ..

Its 1938.... and these guys are saying it ... its obvious ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-1G7ckaNJho

If they arnt trying to sell the oil now then obviously they dont see the electric vehicles taking over anytime soon...

plenty of time to sell oil.. decades of time.

war on ukraines environment ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oj63OkkR4sQ

Interesting Bulltrap.

From the annual report I see they finished the year with $80m net debt.

Brett (page 16) says "The board are at pains to quickly address the value gap between prevailing market cap (circa $87m) and Nta ($220m), or even consensus analyst valuation ($120m)"

The market has clearly lost confidence in this company. The valuation of the inventory is the question I think investors need to consider. If it was sold today on the open market in bulk I suggest its worth nothing like what its on the books at. Brett says no cap raise but I think the market thinks otherwise.

Quote from: Shareguy on Oct 06, 2024, 05:18 PMhttps://www.apiaristsadvocate.com/post/comvita-s-freeze-out-hits-honey-suppliers-hard



https://www.apiaristsadvocate.com/post/the-vulnerability-of-comvita

That's some top-notch reporting and analysis right there... refreshing in these days of paywalls and AI-generated spam.

An August article also from Bruce Roscoe gives more insight and background on Comvita/Capilano:

https://www.apiaristsadvocate.com/post/the-landmine-landscape-of-honey-company-mergers-and-acquisitions

Apparently Bruce is a former analyst for Deutsche Bank Japan and moonlit as a travel writer while there. I'm putting his book Windows on Japan on my reading list.

Let's just forget about the 250 well paid jobs the region desperately needs, dozens of contracting and engineering firms that benefit by hundreds of millions and the positive multiplier effect on the economy from all those firms and those employees extra spending.  Far better for the environment they just keep grazing sheep on the farm such that the sheep farmer can't even afford to shear the sheep as it costs more to do so than the wool is worth.

I accept that mining of any kind has some risks, but it also has substantial economic benefits for the country.  My good friend I have known for a very long time tells me the risks with water discharge are very low and treatment standards now are very good, and I am happy to take his word for it.

I get it we see things from a very different perspective and we're not going to find common ground on this issue.

Actually - there is one more risk I forgot ... and which this press article reminded me off:

https://www.thepress.co.nz/business/350442353/controversial-central-otago-gold-mine-designated-fast-track-project

(might be paywalled)

The area houses a lot of our top South Island wineries. Just imagine something goes wrong in the mine and some of the chemical nasties required for mining leak into the water supply of the wine yards.

We might need to work on some really good advertisement campaigns:

Otagoes wine is good for your health - Yeah Right!

or what about:

Otago Pinot Noir - do you want some cyanide with that?

We even could sell mixed cases from different yards with one out of the six bottles polluted - Otago roulette!

Why would anybody want a proper environmental application process which can be challenged in court given that our administration always gets it right? Hold on, does it?

Quote from: Basil on Oct 07, 2024, 11:42 AMSantana's rise and shine proposed mine is not on DOC land.
This is the opening statement from Santan's Chairman in their recently released annual report.
He seems quite adamant that the fast-track approval process will have the same standards as a normal RMA approval process, just with a more focused approach.  I guess you either believe him or you don't.  I think we can all take it as read, you are deeply skeptical BP

Absolutely - I am sceptical. And lets face it - he would say that, wouldn't he? Normally we are both deeply sceptical when company chairs or CEO's make noises and promises like that - aren't we? Sure, it helps, if they have a longstanding history of keeping their promises, but does the Santana chair?

I guess the difference is - this time you are a holder and I am not. I am sure we agree that sometimes they get it right and sometimes they get it wrong ... and predicting in advance which is which is impossible ... so, its just a risk with a potentially fatal outcome.

Hard to see why a government with a long history of putting individual profit both over environmental concerns (they did happily oversee decades of environmental deterioration in NZ) and workers health (PRC, various logging companies, agriculture) should behave this turn differently. But hey - I guess time will tell and given that I didn't like the other bunch either (but for quite different reasons) is it hard to decide which evil to pick. Individual decision whether people prefer to be eaten by Scylla or drowned by Charybdis.

Back to Santana (and ignoring the common good). I guess from an investors perspective who happens to live far enough from the mine are any environmental risks just another financial risk to contemplate (as lack of Health and Safety turned with Pike River into a financial risk with quite negative outcome). I know the land and that no DOC land is concerned, but I don't know what happens if they leak accidentally cyanides or similar nasties into groundwater finding their way e.g. into the neighbours (animal or human) water supplies. But I guess its just money, its just the health or the life of some animals and possibly humans - and some hundred (or thousand) sq km of land which may or may not be destroyed for generations to come, so - who cares?