MFT - Mainfreight

[winner (n)]

Mainfreight NPAT history on chart

Back to pre-covid trend .....possibly expect +15% pa from here

That's pretty good

Also highlights how mad the world was during the pandemic ...but it generated heaps of one off profits eh

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[Basil]

^Thanks Winner.  That's and excellent image that beautifully encapsulates what I believe many of us on here have known for quite some time, that being, the huge gains from the Covid era would be temporary. 

[BlackPeter]

Oh dear.

Anybody seen what happened to Mainfreights shareprice? Don crushed it. And no, I am not talking about the amazing CEO of this great company, I am talking about Don the idiot throwing handgranades frem the rosegarden of his residence into the wheels of global trade.

Glad I sold my parcel out a couple of months ago. I had some inkling ... Trump in January, stockmarkets tanking in February, bear market in March and depression starting in April?

On the bright side ? Even Adi's 1000 years lasted only twelve ... and just imagine, what opportunities this will create for the future. Buy Mainfraight some day again around $30 like in the good old Covid recession? Maybe even cheaper? Who knows.   

[Basil]

Trump in January, stockmarkets tanking in February, bear market in March and depression starting in April?

What's interesting is that some people have started to fancy their chances of being a bottom picker in this market.  I wonder how many realize that the last time there was a huge trade tariff war was the early 1930's and a great depression is exactly what happened, followed by a huge world war. I really hope history doesn't repeat....sadly it has an uncanny habit of doing exactly that.  Just as well this time its different...or can we be sure of that ?
KW's advice seems best at this time.  Don't buy shares in a downtrend with no idea of when that downtrend will end.

[Auto Rower]

What's interesting is that some people have started to fancy their chances of being a bottom picker in this market.  I wonder how many realize that the last time there was a huge trade tariff war was the early 1930's and a great depression is exactly what happened, followed by a huge world war. I really hope history doesn't repeat....sadly it has an uncanny habit of doing exactly that.  Just as well this time its different...or can we be sure of that ?
KW's advice seems best at this time.  Don't buy shares in a downtrend with no idea of when that downtrend will end.

I have to agree , President Trumps main objective is war with china not just a trade war he wants to crush them & remain the dominant world superpower, hegemonic is the buzz word at the moment.
We will have to pick sides as the world is changing and trummpie will demand allegiance or more tariffs the main reason for the tariffs is leverage .

[Mr Cashflow]

For some reason MF  stock has shown weakness lately.  Even Asian shipping stocks were hard hit. Given the global uncertainty,in the short run this sector could underperform the market.

[Cod]

For some reason MF  stock has shown weakness lately.  Even Asian shipping stocks were hard hit. Given the global uncertainty,in the short run this sector could underperform the market.

Agreed.
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[Shareguy]

FY25 PBT is expected to be ahead of market consensus of $375m, with the US operation at around 7% of FY25 group PBT.

Craigs had forecast $371m PBT so it's a slight positive.

Has been great buying lately in my opinion for long term holders.

Craigs forecast EPS FY25 $2.62


https://www.nzx.com/announcements/450909

[Shareguy]

SHIPPING - Scrambling to gauge how President Trump's tariffs are flowing through the global economy, investors are seeking early signs in data from ports, truckers and railroads. Ryan Petersen, chief executive of Flexport, a San Francisco-based freight forwarder, said China-to-U.S. bookings have declined 60% since April 9. Petersen said that for the first time since his company was launched more than a decade ago, Vietnam is a bigger origin point. And ocean carriers have been cancelling sailings across the Pacific Ocean to the U.S. Almost 30% of such journeys were cancelled for the week ended May 4, according to Flexport. At the Port of Los Angeles, imports are expected to fall 35% this week compared with a year ago. "That's going to have a huge impact on the logistics industry," Petersen said. "Consumers probably won't see this until later." https://www.wsj.com/business

[Shareguy]

Gosh a shocker of an update at the agm.

PBT down 24%. Glad I got out.

FB TP $71 neutral

[Basil]

Gosh it must have been a shocker.  Market gave them a good beating.  I'm guessing FB might revise their price target after that update ?

[Shareguy]

Latest from Craigs

Gardiner thinks margins may remain under pressure for the balance of the year from a weak operating environment and competitive pressures. After the first 4 months PBT is already $23m behind pcp, and he has lowered his FY26 PBT forecast from $407m to $354m (implying FY26 PBT down 7.8% on FY25). His TP reduces to NZ$68.80 (-12%)

FB $71

[winner (n)]

When I posted this chart at end of F25 I said Mainfreight profit back to long term trend now pandemic issues all over

Oops ...looks like they've still got a way to go seeing how F26 is h heading

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[Greekwatchdog]

For Bar update. DISC. Dont hold.

Mainfreight (MFT) reported a tough start to FY26 at its Annual Shareholder Meeting (ASM), with a material decline in year-to-date profitability relative to the prior year. MFT's almost three-year earnings downgrade cycle continues. With revenue growth marginally positive year-to-date, the sharp drop in earnings stems from further margin pressure across all three products (Transport, Warehousing and Air & Ocean). This appears to be largely cyclical: (1) gross margin declines due to competitive pressures; (2) operating de-leverage from weaker volumes; and (3) opex inflation. As has happened at various times in MFT's history, a weak start to the financial year can be offset, and despite sequentially improving performance year-to-date, in this instance the magnitude of the year-to-date decline and the relatively soft prior-year comparative suggest this is unlikely in FY26. Despite this unfavourable earnings backdrop and repeated downgrades over the past three years, MFT still offers long-term growth potential, as illustrated by further new customer wins. NEUTRAL

What's changed?
Earnings: FY26 PBT cut by -13%, FY27 by -10%
Target price: Lowered to NZ$71 from NZ$77 due to material earnings downgrades
Weak start to FY26
MFT has endured a challenging start to FY26. Sales growth has slowed (+1.5% in the first 17 weeks vs +14.0% in 2H25), margins have fallen materially across all three products, and PBT is down -24% against the prior year. MFT refers to four key influences: (1) the shorter trading weeks in April/May; (2) the tariff-related uncertainty across key trade lanes impacting both A&O rates and volumes; (3) the lack of any A&O project work, particularly in Australia; and (4) continuing losses in the US Transport business.

Sequentially improving
June/July 2025 sounds better than April/May 2025. Moreover, management is confident that performance will continue to improve through the second half of FY26. We expect this sequential improvement will stem from a combination of self-help at a branch level with greater than normal margin focus, further new customer wins, and improving cyclical conditions without the tariff-related uncertainty that impacted early FY26. Our updated forecast implies that PBT falls by ~-4% over the remainder of FY26.

Anxiety increasing, but no cause for panic
MFT's almost three-year earnings downgrade cycle continues. For many companies, this would have dented the belief of even the most ardent supporters, but not for MFT. Its one-year forward PE multiple remains in step with its closest global peers, and at a premium to pre-COVID levels. The business remains capable of generating consistent double-digit profit growth through the cycle.

Still looking for new earnings base; NEUTRAL
MFT's first 17 weeks of FY26 have been extremely challenging. PBT is down -24% against the prior year, despite a sequential improvement in performance through June/July 2025. The trading environment has been difficult, with cyclical pressures weighing on a business that has been subject to an earnings normalisation process since the peak of the freight super-cycle in 2022. We accept that our confidence in calling MFT's earnings trough has been misplaced over recent history (we now assume trough-cycle PBT of ~NZ$350m, which is still materially higher than that generated in FY19 [~NZ$200m]), albeit largely due to evolving external factors (economic cycle, tariff uncertainty etc). These pressures should ease, providing some scope for sustained earnings growth to continue. The key question is when? We expect the sequential improvement in performance (observed by management) in June/July 2025 to continue through 2H26, but only to the extent of limiting the year-on-year declines. Growth will likely only resurface from FY27. Investors need to remain patient.

With the current backdrop, a ~24x one-year forward PE appears full but fair relative to its closest global freight peers.

[KW]

MFT is one of those stocks that really track the health of the economy, in much the same way as the Dow Transports has always been a very important index (and used to confirm the direction of the Dow Industrials).  

I think that stocks like SUM and MFT picked up in the expectation that the housing market and NZ economy would improve over the second half, but its turning out to not be the case.  We are still stuck in a recessionary environment, with not that much light at the end of the tunnel being visible.  

If you are holding any other economically sensitive stocks in your portfolio, now would be an optimum time to review them, before they drop their earnings updates.