IKE - IKE GPS Group

[Greekwatchdog]

For past 3 weeks we have had some sizeable volume go thru and seen a incremental increase in share price. There has been no speeding tickets from either exchange which surprises me somewhat.

Whilst I have not read the Bus Desk (nice surprise to see) article the stars are starting to align with what our own research says

There has already been takeover talk. For Bar think $1.80. I suspect it may need to be more than that as I expect IKE will be very close to making money 2nd half 2026.

Going to be a fascinating next 12+ months holding this stock assuming there is not a successful takeover in the interim.

[Left Field]

For past 3 weeks we have had some sizeable volume go thru and seen a incremental increase in share price. There has been no speeding tickets from either exchange which surprises me somewhat.

Whilst I have not read the Bus Desk (nice surprise to see) article the stars are starting to align with what our own research says

There has already been takeover talk. For Bar think $1.80. I suspect it may need to be more than that as I expect IKE will be very close to making money 2nd half 2026.

Going to be a fascinating next 12+ months holding this stock assuming there is not a successful takeover in the interim.

Agree....As a longer term investor, a quick profit on a takeover would be nice,  but I would prefer IKE is not taken over. I would much rather ride the successes with IKE on the assumption that the shares will be worth much, much more than the takeover offer in 2 to 5 yrs.

Nice to be 'well positioned' either way.

[Left Field]

Results out....

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/452466

Highlights:

 Exit run rate of annual platform subscription revenue grew to NZ$17.6m (+48% vs pcp).
 
 Total recognized revenue in the period of NZ$25.2m (+19% vs pcp), with recognized revenue in 4Q of NZ$6.6m. Comprising the above was:
 � Subscription revenue of NZ$14.4m (+34% vs pcp).
 � Transaction revenue of NZ$7.6m (+3% vs pcp).
 � Hardware and other services revenue of NZ$3.2m (+5% vs pcp).
 � Gross margin of NZ$17.4m (+37% vs pcp), with gross margin in 4Q of NZ$4.8m (73%).
 
 Gross margin percentage of 69% (up from pcp of 60%), driven by revenue mix continuing to shift to high margin subscription software products.
 � Cash Operating Expenses 2% lower than pcp.
 
 Adjusted EBITDA loss of NZ$6.1m (improved from pcp Adjusted EBITDA loss NZ$9.8m)
 
 Net Comprehensive Loss of NZ$16.3m (-11% vs pcp).
 � Excluding impairment (non-cash) the Net Comprehensive Loss position improved by 18% vs pcp.
 
 Total cash and net receivables NZ$15.4m.

 � This comprises NZ$10.3m in cash and NZ$5.1m in net receivables (NZ$6.1m in receivables with payables of NZ$1.0m) and no debt. This grew +NZ$1.8m in the fourth quarter.

 � The 31 March 2025 cash position is consistent with the level 12 months prior.

[Greekwatchdog]

Also liked 2026 outlook

FY26 OUTLOOK

Based on contracts in place and broader momentum in the business the outlook includes:+ Subscription revenue to continue to increase strongly, at growth levels of 35% or greater.

To be approximately EBITDA beak-even on a run rate basis within the second half of FY26.

IKE's focus will remain solely on winning / becoming the industry standard in the North American market.

The current global tariff situation has no material impact on IKE's business, as a U.S. software provider delivering into U.S. customers.+ New automation applications and modules to be introduced into IKE's established products

[BlackPeter]

Oh dear ... but they provide a nice summary:

Total recognized revenue in the period of NZ$25.2m (+19% vs pcp), with a net loss of NZ$16.3m.

What can one say? Pretty expensive revenue, isn't it?

Revenue is growing from a very low base with a long term CAGR of 18.5. Not a growth company, but not too bad. Earnings (Oops - losses) are accumulating slowly and consistently. A real growth company, just the direction worries me.

This year they achieved their biggest loss ever (10.5 cents per share) after averaging 7 cents loss per year and share over the last 8 years. They even exceeded the analyst consensus of another 7 cts loss per share for this year - they achieved a 30 % higher loss - pretty outstanding.

And no doubt - next year will be different and the future is bright.

[BlackPeter]

Mmh - and there are other things growing really fast:

Liabilities to assets did grow from 44% to 83.7%. Wow - do they want to turn this into a bank?

Ah yes, and earnings to equity rises to an amazing -342%. Only fly in the ointment is the small negative sign in front of the number, but never mind.

Clearly - I need to expand some of the columns in my spreadsheet - Haven't seen such numbers before ;But then, it is just money, isn't it? Who cares. Great story anyway.

[Greekwatchdog]

For Bars review

ikeGPS (IKE) delivered a solid FY25 result, with several key metrics pre-released at its 4Q25 trading update. The key positive was continued strong growth in Subscription revenue, driven by momentum with PoleForeman, its structural-engineering software. While a +900 bp improvement in gross margins to 69% was primarily the result of a favourable mix shift towards higher-margin Subscription revenue, margins lifted within all segments. The new detail from the result came around the operating-cost base. We were encouraged by a -2% decline in cash-operating costs, supporting a material improvement in adjusted EBITDA. Management has guided confidently for Subscription revenue growth of +35% or greater in FY26, with EBITDA breakeven expected on a run-rate basis in 2H26. IKE had NZ$10.3 m of net cash at its FY25 balance date, aided by inflows from multi-year customer pre-payments. We reduce the discount in our peer valuation given heightened M&A potential and progress towards breakeven, which increases our spot valuation to NZ$0.93.

What's changed?

Earnings: Our operating EBITDA estimates fall by -NZ$1.0m/-NZ$1.0m/-NZ$4.6m over FY26/FY27/FY28 respectively.
Spot valuation: Our blended spot valuation rises +4cps to NZ$0.93 on reducing the discount in our peer valuation on M&A.

Subscriptions underpin margin and revenue growth
Subscription revenues were the clear growth driver in FY25, rising +34% from FY24 to NZ$14.4m. Strong growth was supported by customer additions and significant seat-licence uptake. IKE now has over 8,500 licences, up +103% on FY24. This growth was led by the PoleForeman platform, now a critical component of IKE's offer, having generated over NZ$17m total-contract value since its late-2023 launch. IKE's Subscription revenue is high-margin (89% gross margin in FY25), helping lift group gross margins from 60% in FY24 to 69% in FY25 as its share of total revenue increased.
Costs tightly managed despite investment
Operating expenses were carefully controlled, with cash operating expenses declining -2% year-on-year despite inflationary pressures. While sales and marketing expenses fell, they remained substantial, reflecting targeted customer-expansion efforts over recent years. Non-cash operating expenses increased due to amortisation and a NZ$4.4m impairment charge on legacy intangible assets. IKE remains confident in reaching EBITDA breakeven (on a run-rate basis) in 2H26, underpinned by continued disciplined cost management (with minimal growth in staff numbers over FY26 anticipated) and sustained Subscription growth.
Cash flat on large pre-paid payments
Net cash was NZ$10.3m at the FY25 balance date, effectively flat on FY24. IKE benefited from pre-payments of multi-year contracts from several major customers in FY25, with long-term deferred revenue climbing +NZ$8.5m to NZ$12.4m. While this will represent a cash flow headwind for IKE in subsequent periods, we continue to see it reaching cash-flow breakeven without external capital.
Results analysis
IKE reported a solid FY25 result, with revenue rising +19% year-on-year to NZ$25.2m. Subscriptions drove revenue growth as the Transactions and Hardware segments grew only modestly. Gross profit leapt +37% to NZ$17.4m, supported by a favourable mix shift towards high-margin Subscription revenue. However, margins rose across all divisions. Adjusted EBITDA improved from -NZ$9.8m in FY24 to -NZ$6.1m in FY25 as cash operating expenses declined by -2%. The NPAT loss widened to NZ$16.3m, which included a NZ$4.4m non-cash impairment charge on legacy intangible assets. Key points:

Subscriptions: Revenue grew by +34% and Gross Margin +39% due to a strong uptake of the next-generation IKE PoleForeman subscription product, which has generated over NZ$17m in total-contract value since its launch in late 2023. Subscription seat licences increased by +103% year-on-year to over 8,500, underpinning consistent growth. Gross margin lifted from 86% to 89%.
Transactions: Revenue grew by +3% and Gross Margin +40%. The ongoing 'Trump' effect was impacting revenues and customer projects, however, transaction margin improved significantly from 24% to 32%, driven by operational efficiencies.
Hardware and Other: Revenue +5% and Gross Margin +26%. Revenues increased slightly, driven by steady hardware sales and associated service revenues, which contributed positively to overall margin improvement. Gross margin lifted from 56% to 68%.
Operating expenses: Total operating expenses increased by +19% to NZ$34.3m, primarily due to a NZ$4.4m impairment charge on legacy intangible assets. Excluding this charge and movements in capitalised costs, cash operating expenses fell by -2%, with targeted reductions in sales and marketing expenses (-6%) partially offset by increased R&D investment (+11%).
Earnings revisions
We revise our estimates following IKE's FY25 results. While we tick up FY26 revenue modestly, we lower our medium-term revenue forecasts, reflecting: (1) a slower-than-anticipated recovery in transactional revenues, given Trump's commentary around satellite versus fibre; and (2) a moderation in our view of Subscription revenue growth for IKE Office Pro. Our opex increases in FY26 but is broadly flat in FY27 and FY28. In aggregate, EBITDA falls -NZ$1m in FY26 and FY27, but by a larger amount in FY28. With net cash stable at NZ$10.3m over FY25 and ongoing operational discipline, we maintain our expectation that IKE will achieve: (1) EBITDA breakeven on a monthly basis sometime in 2H26, as called out by management; (2) full-year EBITDA breakeven in FY27; and (3) cash-flow breakeven in FY28.

[Greekwatchdog]

2m shares crossed on NZX @ $0.97. Positive indorsement in my book

[Poet]

2m shares crossed on NZX @ $0.97. Positive indorsement in my book

Crossed at 0.95 so positive or negative, you be the judge.

I'd ike to think they are going places.

[Left Field]

Crossed at 0.95 so positive or negative, you be the judge.

I'd ike to think they are going places.

2 mill on NZX plus 1.9 mill crossing on ASX both at a similar price equivalent of $NZ 0.95c.... I see it as positive.
 

[Minimoke]

Ike outlook

Looking ahead to FY26 (the period beginning 1 April 2025) based on contracts in place and broader momentum in the company, we expect our subscription revenue to continue to increase strongly at growth levels of 35% or greater, positioning us well for the medium and long term.

We also expect to be approximately EBITDA break-even on a run rate basis within the second half of FY26. It is of note that our FY25 cash operating expenses reduced year-over-year while materially growing subscription revenues, evidencing the operating leverage opportunity. The current global tariff situation has no material impact on IKE's business as a U.S. software provider into materially all U.S. businesses

[Left Field]

IKE $20 Mill Cap raise and trading halt info'

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/454820

Interesting timing for this announcement and the recent hasty departure of the CFO.......

Monday's update better be good.

[Greekwatchdog]

Must say I am very surprised by this

Not much of a discount to current price

[Minimoke]

IKE $20 Mill Cap raise and trading halt info'

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/454820

Interesting timing for this announcement and the recent hasty departure of the CFO.......

Monday's update better be good.

I wonder why existing shareholders dont get first dibs of the capital raise. Share dilution coming up.

[Left Field]

I wonder why existing shareholders dont get first dibs of the capital raise. Share dilution coming up.

Existing s/holders get "the opportunity to apply for up to a maximum of NZ$32,500 of new shares free of any brokerage, commission, and transaction costs."

It's going to be interesting to see what (if any) dilution takes place.

Remember the days when the CEO said, "we don't see any need to raise capital..." and "we expect to be approximately EBITDA break-even on a run rate basis within the second half of FY26."

S/holders  should be asking the CEO, "what's changed?"