IKE - IKE GPS Group

[Greekwatchdog]

Another large volume day, currently 379k @ $0.735 on ASX. 1 trade of 300k.

[Greekwatchdog]

So 451k been traded at $0.75 AUD, NZX $0.80 on 96k. Something fishy??

[Greekwatchdog]

Interesting close on price on ASX, make for an interesting opening on the NZX

Last Price / Today's Change
$0.800  +$0.050 (6.666%)

Volume
19,830

Bid / Offer Range
$0.715 - $0.800

[Forrestdun]

Big volumes going through on NZX and ASX today

[Greekwatchdog]

Big volumes going through on NZX and ASX today

someones certainly buying up. Be an interesting Full Year result unless we get something announced before hand.

[Left Field]

Great to see IKE feeling the love today.

Well done holders..... onwards and upwards.

[Greekwatchdog]

I suspect we will get a speeding ticket shortly. currently $0.845 on ASX on 40k shares

[Minimoke]

I suspect we will get a speeding ticket shortly. currently $0.845 on ASX on 40k shares

$0.90 on NZX.

It looking like that $1.00 offer might be a bit undervalued.

[Greekwatchdog]

Somethings going down, just what?

ASX
$0.885  +$0.070 (8.588%)

Volume 770,574

[Greekwatchdog]

ASX

$0.910  +$0.095 (11.656%)
Volume 782,279

[Left Field]

If this is the build up to another takeover offer for IKE.... it had better be near $1.50 IMO.

[Greekwatchdog]

From Post # 308.
This was from For Bars review on the 10/02 after the $1 offer was turned down. $1.50 could be to cheap and sales changes since.. Hmm

ikeGPS (IKE) received an unsolicited, non-binding acquisition proposal from a North American private equity firm in late 2024, valuing the company at approximately NZ$1.00 per share, representing an enterprise value of NZ$165m–NZ$170m and a +62% premium to the 5 February 2025 share price. After assessing the proposal, IKE's board allowed the bidder a short period of exclusive due diligence to determine whether a firm offer could be sufficiently compelling to justify a scheme of arrangement. Following due diligence, the final offer was received in late January 2025. After confidential discussions with major shareholders under standstill agreements, the board determined that the price had no realistic chance of securing the required shareholder support, and the process was terminated. The acquisition proposal would have valued IKE at  a ~4.8x 12-month forward EV/Sales multiple, significantly below the median peer multiple of ~9x. While our blended spot valuation for IKE is NZ$0.92, we have previously noted that a materially higher price may be possible in an M&A scenario, reflecting: (1) IKE's new product development pipeline, and (2) IKE's high-quality customer base, with 34 of the top ~100 investor-owned utilities in North America using its software.

What's changed?
Spot valuation: Increases +5% to NZ$0.92, reflecting the incorporation of FY26 EV/Sales multiples as a component of our blended valuation.
Lack of shareholder support led to termination of discussions
IKE's board engaged in confidential discussions with major shareholders under standstill agreements to gauge potential support for the NZ$1.00 per share offer. Feedback from these discussions indicated that the proposed price was unlikely to gain sufficient backing to proceed with a scheme of arrangement. The board weighed this assessment against the potential costs and resource commitments required to advance discussions further. Despite the +62% premium offered, shareholders and the board remained unconvinced that the valuation reflected IKE's long-term growth potential. With no indication that a higher offer would be forthcoming, the board determined that the proposal had no realistic chance of success. As a result, IKE formally terminated discussions, ensuring that management's focus remained on executing its growth strategy rather than pursuing an offer that lacked shareholder support.

IKE's peer group shows significant M&A upside potential under IKE's better-than-sector growth
IKE's peer group trades at between ~4x and ~14x 12-month forward EV/Sales, a material premium to IKE's undisturbed EV/Sales multiple of ~3.0x. This is despite IKE growing substantially faster than its peers. We forecast a revenue growth CAGR of +26% from FY25 to FY27 for IKE, versus a median FY3/FY1 revenue CAGR for its peers of ~+9%. As a scenario, based on IKE's peer group median EV/Sales multiple of 8.8x, we calculate a value of ~NZ$1.80 per share for IKE.

[Minimoke]

SP Back to where it was in 2014

[Left Field]

From Post # 308.
This was from For Bars review on the 10/02 after the $1 offer was turned down. $1.50 could be to cheap and sales changes since.. Hmm .....

IKE's peer group shows significant M&A upside potential under IKE's better-than-sector growth
IKE's peer group trades at between ~4x and ~14x 12-month forward EV/Sales, a material premium to IKE's undisturbed EV/Sales multiple of ~3.0x. This is despite IKE growing substantially faster than its peers. We forecast a revenue growth CAGR of +26% from FY25 to FY27 for IKE, versus a median FY3/FY1 revenue CAGR for its peers of ~+9%. As a scenario, based on IKE's peer group median EV/Sales multiple of 8.8x, we calculate a value of ~NZ$1.80 per share for IKE.

Sssooo if it's a takeover @ $1.80..... I'll be v happy at that level.  Thanks GreekWD

[Left Field]

IKE now getting some mainstream attention from this article in Business Week (behind paywall)

https://businessdesk.co.nz/journalist/rebecca-stevenson

However, I suspect it will need more than this article to  get the SP over $1.00 !!??