STU - Steel & Tube Holdings

[winner (n)]

Mark must be in raptures today hailing the appointment of an Economic GROWTH Minister

Nicola going to do stuff instead of it just being talk


The 'plan to turn it around' no doubt includes getting big infrastructure projects started ....music to Mark's ears

[Cod]

Bad report for STU - looks like it will go for a fourth fractal move. Price bottom looks to be around 0.67c on TA.
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[LoungeLizard]

Nothing to cheer about with these results, with the exception of the acquisition, which may yield long term synergies and value. But until our economy gets going again I don't see STU's fortunes changing, no matter how efficient or well managed they may be.
Trouble is it seems like the NATs want everyone but themselves to invest in NZ. They won't take the lead - won't spend to stimulate growth - and hence everyone else tightens their belt as well. Instant recession. 

[winner (n)]

Nothing to cheer about with these results, with the exception of the acquisition, which may yield long term synergies and value. But until our economy gets going again I don't see STU's fortunes changing, no matter how efficient or well managed they may be.
Trouble is it seems like the NATs want everyone but themselves to invest in NZ. They won't take the lead - won't spend to stimulate growth - and hence everyone else tightens their belt as well. Instant recession. 

Spot on lizard

Maybe 2028 will see an improvement in fortunes for the sector

[winner (n)]

Half year out and $10m LOSS. No comment on here

But a thought

Another acquisition

Love the way how they always headline Proven M&A track record

So they acquired Fasteners NZ in 2021 and Kiwi Pipe & Fittings in 2022 and Transport Strategy in 2024

A chart in todays preso shows EBITDA from these for H125 is about $3m (maybe more). So pretty good.

But the whole business reported EBITDA of $2.0m

Jeez doesn't say much the core Steel & Tube business does it

The rhetoric coming from STU is beyond belief now ... Malpass and Patterson live in another universe and are just taking the mickey out of shareholders

[LoungeLizard]

Half year out and $10m LOSS. No comment on here

But a thought

Another acquisition

Love the way how they always headline Proven M&A track record

So they acquired Fasteners NZ in 2021 and Kiwi Pipe & Fittings in 2022 and Transport Strategy in 2024

A chart in todays preso shows EBITDA from these for H125 is about $3m (maybe more). So pretty good.

But the whole business reported EBITDA of $2.0m

Jeez doesn't say much the core Steel & Tube business does it

The rhetoric coming from STU is beyond belief now ... Malpass and Patterson live in another universe and are just taking the mickey out of shareholders

I agree that hearing (again) that the recovery is around the corner is annoying to say the least. We've heard this for the last 2-3 years and yet revenue/EBit/NPAT all continue to decline. Until the political/economic environment changes, STU's results won't improve. End of story. Everything else is just wishful thinking.

But I do give credit that they have done what they could have - lowered costs, no debt, cash in hand, inventory levels controlled. It's just that the industry they are in, requires growth and investment in the wider economy, both of which are in short supply.

Management do say that they have a significant pipeline of work and expect growth in the second half of the year, but until we get some actual positive guidance numbers - and they are achieved - then investors are right to be extremely cynical. 



 

[winner (n)]

Not much joy in Jan consents sdata out today

Residential bottoming is the havourite phrase ..non residential still going down

Still reckon Mark will have to wait to 2028 for better times

[winner (n)]

Building activity done in year to December 24 down 6% on pcp ..Stats NZ

In same period STU sales down 23%

Again they have underperformed against this metric. For many years their sales followed the trend in activity but not the last few years

Mark and Susan blame the economy blah blah and tell good stories etc ..but I suspect things arent entirely thst great at STU

[winner (n)]

Feb consents data shows both residential and commercial numbers still declining.

Outlook for STU still a bit grim in spite of Mark saying otherwise. Still reckon it'll be 2028 at the earliest before STU has a reasonable year

Doubt whether we'll hear much from Mark until June/July and no doubt he'll repeat stuff like " Early signs of market improvement, anticipated to build momentum from mid-2025; long term macro trends remain favourable"




https://www.interest.co.nz/property/132688/residential-and-commercial-building-consents-both-continue-decline

[BlackPeter]

Feb consents data shows both residential and commercial numbers still declining.

Outlook for STU still a bit grim in spite of Mark saying otherwise. Still reckon it'll be 2028 at the earliest before STU has a reasonable year

Doubt whether we'll hear much from Mark until June/July and no doubt he'll repeat stuff like " Early signs of market improvement, anticipated to build momentum from mid-2025; long term macro trends remain favourable"




https://www.interest.co.nz/property/132688/residential-and-commercial-building-consents-both-continue-decline

Plenty of building activity in our nick of the woods, but hey - apparently Selwyn is NZ's fastest growing district.

Maybe STU should open an outlet in Rolleston?

[Cod]

STU tracking as predicted by TA will exit wedge early October, recovery dependant on prevailing construction industry conditions improvement. I note RVGI barely made it over 0 in this impulse which hasn't happen since late 2015 to mid 2016 when it dropped from $2.50 to $1.70
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[BlackPeter]

... maybe October comes early?

Anyway - somebody seems to see value right now: Quite happy buying on Thursday:

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But who knows, maybe somebody just sacrifizing to the goddess of spring and fertility - Happy Eostre everybody!

[Poet]

... maybe October comes early?

Anyway - somebody seems to see value right now: Quite happy buying on Thursday:

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But who knows, maybe somebody just sacrifizing to the goddess of spring and fertility - Happy Eostre everybody!

Closed up at 77c but that large volume of 3.2 million shares went through at 70c near closing time
Will be interesting to watch any follow through in next few days

[lorraina]

Looks like it was a very keen seller at that 70 cent price.?

[winner (n)]

Malpass coming out with some news soon?