MFB - My Food Bag

[Minimoke]

Sales up which is good, but product mix taking the blame for what is a downgrade.  It seems customers are opting for the cheaper meals. Only had a small holding as part of my punting portfolio but after looking at the pros and cons sold out on opening. The first downgrade but most likely not the last.

Good luck to holders.   

There is no point increasing sales if it can't be done while maintaining margin. Lots of red flags in today's announcement

[winner (n)]

Sales up 2.5% but EBITDA down 8% means margins shot

At that rate first half profits could be down 20% unless radical cut to expense base

[winner (n)]

Trading on its all time low and as mentioned before the consistency of the downtrend since listing is quite remarkable.  http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MFB/396940/376499.pdf
You'd have to be a very "brave" puppy to bet against that downtrend continuing after that trading update and "tuck in" now or anytime soon.
Buying in confirmed downtrends is the sort of punting I am happy to leave to others.
Sustainability of the dividend looks very much in doubt to me.

Yep, chart almost a straight line pointing down

Been trending down 1.0% per week since listing

At that rate the MFB share price will be just over 60 cents by Christmas

Some might think that will be pretty good .... especially if there's more downgrades

[winner (n)]

Could be an interesting ASM on Friday

No doubt the Chair will be re-elected

[size=1How MFG is playing out over time has remarkable similarities to how Metro Glass has performed ... still a lot more be played out by My Food Bag I fear [/size]

[Basil]

Nardia Lim not cutting the mustard any more.  Desperately need Margot Robbie as brand ambassador.
Paywalled and contains image of Nadia Lim with pet goat.  https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/omicron-inflation-worries-sour-my-food-bags-start-to-trading-year/B7FLJ6NLOTCRTDDXCSZSJSMAKU/

[Basil]

Yep, chart almost a straight line pointing down

Been trending down 1.0% per week since listing

At that rate the MFB share price will be just over 60 cents by Christmas

Some might think that will be pretty good .... especially if there's more downgrades

With straight lines down its best to wait for a confirmed break to the upside.
As you say mate, a lot of similarities between this and MPG and this could potentially also end up in the penny dreadful zone.
Downgrades always come in 3's.

[KW]

Nardia Lim not cutting the mustard any more.  Desperately need Margot Robbie as brand ambassador.
Paywalled and contains image of Nadia Lim with pet goat.  https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/omicron-inflation-worries-sour-my-food-bags-start-to-trading-year/B7FLJ6NLOTCRTDDXCSZSJSMAKU/

The poor woman will have to spend the rest of her life wearing cardigans 
https://image.isu.pub/220703233157-f926b64d8d8f29374f51ce1a4faf8362/jpg/page_1.jpg

[winner (n)]

Metro Glass IPO back in 2014. Shortly after IPO had a profit upgrade - share price goes up over 200. Things don't go that well but then they acquire an Oz company - GROWTH and share price shoots up to the 220s.

My Food Bag was going to use the same play book. But big mouth Bowler anoounced the profit upgrade before the IPO so no post IPO excitment .... idiot wasn't he

I said at the time of time of the MFB IPO that it's share price could eventually follow the path of the MPG one. Main reason they would (like Metro) struggle to live up to lofty expectations and valuations of the IPO. It seems to be happening

Chart is MPG and MFB share price from IPO. I've started the MFB line from the time the MPG share price peaked after the OZ acquisition.

You cannot view this attachment.

[Basil]

Cool chart Winner, you're a legend with your charts.  Startling similarities to MPG share price trend.  Heading into the dog box (under 50 cents) category almost as a foregone conclusion.

[LoungeLizard]

I felt from the beginning that MYB was overhyped and overvalued at IPO - $1.85?! and a market cap of $450m?! - more than many established business's. Analysts, commentators, ratings agencies did a great disservice to NZ investors for so eagerly promoting such a fragile business with a questionable business model and metrics. Ditto the NZX - it shows how desperate they are for new listings.
MYB could easily go under or end up a 10c-20c stock in a couple or years. Glad I steered clear and I would be bailing now and taking the hit if I was a holder. It's only going to get worse from here.

[Auto Rower]

I agree on the overhyped IPO etc ,but not on the fantasy of going down to such a ridiculous sp i would say this is rock bottom from the news yesterday  all the businesses involved in food at the moment are sharing the same problems ,seeka rbd to name a couple so this is nothing mfb specific & I think  the steps  they have taken to balance these problems resulting in the sales up & the margins down is to be expected actually sales up is unexpected with their winding back measures based on the omricon staff deficiency's pull back on advertising that they can easily afford to push when ready etc .
Still a healthy profit with minimal debts profitable company .
 Not comparable with MPG at all you could superimpose that chart over most company's in this bear market winner
 

[Basil]

Lots of people thought it was rock bottom at $1.20, $1.00, 90 cents, 80 cents...

[winner (n)]

Lots of people thought it was rock bottom at $1.20, $1.00, 90 cents, 80 cents...

And MPG said "NZ activity picking up and Australia turnaround progressing well" when MPG share price was about 70 cents

[Auto Rower]

Lots of people thought it was rock bottom at $1.20, $1.00, 90 cents, 80 cents...

Quite right I agree everyone cannot be right !! and time will tell if 73 cents is a good buy or not .
As it does with all .
 Fridays a s m should be another indicator of how the bear is effecting m f b

[winner (n)]

MFB close today 72 cents ......all time low

The relentless grind down to lower prices continue

PS - autorower - that's nearly 18 months of MFB price action on that chart I posted ....I can't find any other stock to superimpose that MFB line