MFB - My Food Bag

[nztx]

Can't not have MFB on the forum - can we ?

The recent 4c dividend gobbled up greedily - SP 80c

Now what - the SP continuing slide down to 50c/60c ?

After all, those tougher times which Robbo now has had to admit to are on us,
and inflationary surges will find their way into elements of all costs
spiralling around and around to land on the end consumer's dinner plate

The $350 hand out will be well eaten up before it even lands by increased costs.

[Stoploss]

Can't not have MFB on the forum - can we ?

The recent 4c dividend gobbled up greedily - SP 80c

Now what - the SP continuing slide down to 50c/60c ?

After all, those tougher times which Robbo now has had to admit to are on us,
and inflationary surges will find their way into elements of all costs
spiralling around and around to land on the end consumer's dinner plate

The $350 hand out will be well eaten up before it even lands by increased costs.

Robbo will be buying 100,000's of MFB bags a week next year when times get really tough and the polls are bleak .

[winner (n)]

Threatening to go to new all time lows again

[Minimoke]

Threatening to go to new all time lows again

Might need a prettier face on the Annual report

[Basil]

Would be really helpful if MFB were ever trying to expand into Australia if they could get Margot Robbie on board as a customer and brand ambasador.
Even better if she fronts the annual report.

[lorraina]

Crikey she could even make those $1 tins of baked beans you love look edible...lol.

[arekaywhy]

...

The $350 hand out will be well eaten smoked up before it even lands by increased costs.

there, fixed it for ya

[Auto Rower]

I used to be the biggest knocker of this stock but the p e the divi profit etc are all looking good now with the deflated sp !!.
 Definitely replace Nadia with that Margot Robbie & we have a winner winner foodbag dinner   

[Whacc]

I used to be the biggest knocker of this stock but the p e the divi profit etc are all looking good now with the deflated sp !!.   

Yup, I'm in for that reason.  The yield is phenomenal.

[Basil]

Very seldom have I seen a chart with such a consistent downtrending slope ever since it listed.
Its very close to a straight line at the same angle downward.  Quite an impressive thing for those who are short !

There is no TA encouragement whatsoever to buy now, another fresh all time low today.
There is no real way to know how the current record food prices will affect their margins going forward, or how demand might behave as we move further through this pandemic.

There is such little history with dividends there's no way to be sure they're sustainable going forward.
None of this will worry young gung ho investors because they think that this time its different.

At least the dividends will slightly reduce the capital losses so I suppose that's something.

 

[Minimoke]

Yup, I'm in for that reason.  The yield is phenomenal.

I've never understood the approach of chasing high yield on a depreciating SP. Make 9% divi - nice!. Lose 20% on SP - not so nice

[Whacc]

I've never understood the approach of chasing high yield on a depreciating SP. Make 9% divi - nice!. Lose 20% on SP - not so nice

Yeah, I don't do it often at all/ever.

The question is whether it will continue to depreciate?
I don't think so for MFB. My view is that as long as it keeps paying this dividend it'll fluctuate between this level and ~$0.90.

Sure, it was IPO'd at dumb money pricing.  I didn't touch it there. 
Only picked some up at $0.80 before the last result announcement.  To management's credit they have done precisely what they said they were going to do at IPO - delivered the PFI.
I'm not going to argue the model isn't challenged, but they've shown they can do what they say.

What I don't understand is people who chase dividends after the announcement then sell.
I'll just quietly pick up some at this price, then when they announce an unchanged div and the fools will rush in again I'll quietly trim.

[Auto Rower]

Quite a cool feature of this website is that as you are about to write a reply it tells you someone has just done so and stops you  posting similar replies .
 Totally agree with the consistent down trending chart since the I P O  ,This cannot continue unabated .

[Shareguy]

Thought this article  was interesting. Implies MFB might be doing ok. See the share price has come off lows, but still looks very cheap.

http://www.voxy.co.nz/business/5/404905

[Minimoke]

Thought this article  was interesting. Implies MFB might go doing ok. See the share price has come off lows, but still looks very cheap.

http://www.voxy.co.nz/business/5/404905

SP shoudlnt be used as a measure of value. From the article - which is pretty telling: "The survey found HelloFresh was the most commonly-used food service app, used by 33 per cent of Kiwis in the past 12 months (from 31 per cent previously). Uber Eats was the next most prominent at 31 per cent (unchanged) with My Food Bag coming in third at 20 per cent (from 17 per cent). The survey also found usage was up across several emerging food service brands with Menulog (10 per cent from seven per cent last year), Deliver Easy (eight per cent from six per cent previously) and foodpanda (four per cent from one per cent) the biggest gainers."

So what do we know
- food inflation is rampant. Making ingredient costs more expensive and risk shrinking margins.
- there is no moat. As expected other companies have come into this space. And more will continue to do so. Probably fluctuating over time. Marketing spend will need to increase to maintain market share
- Who packs My Food bags? There is a labour shortage and labour costs are going up as a consequence.
- inflation is rising. House values are decreasing. Dial in food is discretionary spend. When purse strings need to be tightened  service like this may be the first to go.

Would I touch MFB. No - too many risks for me.