NZX 50 Index - Forthcoming potential Changes.

[bulltrap]

Hey Basil. 
Looking ahead to the June rebalancing. It's looking like the WHS and KMD will drop out.  What do you think of BGP and NPH sneaking in this time 😁

Not directed at me, but I'd say for now KMD looks comfortably within the 55th place minimum ranking for staying in NZX50.

Taking MarketScreener's current market cap and free-float percentages as a point of reference, the ranking between NPH and WHS is something like:

Rank	Ticker	Market Cap (NZ$M)	Free-float (%)	Free-float (NZ$M)
49	NPH	515	43%	220
50	KMD	256	80%	204
51	BGP	947	16%	148
52	ERD	177	73%	129
53	RBD	437	25%	107
54	WHS	297	28%	84

(Some others including SEK, NZM, NZL, and DGL are also around this range, but mightn't meet the liquidity requirements.)

[Scooter]

Thanks Bull trap.  Where do you find this info or do you put it together yourself.   I like you mentioned Seeka. I went overweight in that last week. Looks too good to be true. Be nice if they were added but a long term thing still at the mo 😁

[bulltrap]

Thanks Bull trap.  Where do you find this info or do you put it together yourself.  I like you mentioned Seeka. I went overweight in that last week. Looks too good to be true. Be nice if they were added but a long term thing still at the mo 😁

I linked to MarketScreener, but Yahoo Finance also gives free-float numbers, e.g. for NPH currently:

Float / Shares Outstanding = 86.27M / 199.88M = 43%

They both give similar numbers, usually within 5% or so. Not sure why they differ, or if either is a better guide to S&P's IWF (Investable Weight Factor) as used in the official index calcs.

Digging deeper, S&P documents their methodology in methodology-sp-float-adjustment, and NZX considerations in methodology-sp-nzx-index. Companies whose NZX listings are secondary (including WBC, ANZ, VSL) are given special treatment. S&P do offer subscriptions to index data but it'd cost, and trying to reproduce their numbers independently (by poring through major shareholdings in annual reports I guess) would be tedious and error-prone.

[Sideshow Bob]

From the other channel, rise of ETF's are creating opportunities with indexes.


The red hot method professionals are using to thump the ASX and ETF investors

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wire...rm=Read%20More
"the passive money phenomenon is now "distorting markets" so much that it's something active investors have no choice but to consider if they want to get ahead. "

[BlackPeter]

From the other channel, rise of ETF's are creating opportunities with indexes.


The red hot method professionals are using to thump the ASX and ETF investors

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wire...rm=Read%20More
"the passive money phenomenon is now "distorting markets" so much that it's something active investors have no choice but to consider if they want to get ahead. "

actually - try this link:
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wires/the-red-hot-method-professionals-are-using-to-thump-the-asx-and-etf-investors
It does work ;

If you look into the comments, he even explains when the method works: If the share performs a bit better than funds assumed, then they all need to buy a bit more shares, and this way driving the price up. Pocket your profit - so easy.

However - if the share performs prior to inclusion a bit lower than funds assumed ... guess what  ; - and you can ditch your options. not even paper to burn these days.

So - its just another method to make or loose money - like playing roulette. Only difference - there are no limits (in both directions).

[Shareguy]

The de-listing of Manawa Energy from the NZX50 will see NPH as the next likely inclusion in the NZX50. As a reminder the next rebalance (announced 6 June) is expected to see WHS removed and replaced by Briscoes  (effective 20 June.

[winner (n)]

STU have aspirations to be a NX50 company

[bulltrap]

The de-listing of Manawa Energy from the NZX50 will see NPH as the next likely inclusion in the NZX50. As a reminder the next rebalance (announced 6 June) is expected to see WHS removed and replaced by Briscoes  (effective 20 June.

From MNW's announcement today, takeover is expected to go ahead in July, but needs shareholder approval first, presumably early June (no date set yet for meeting).

Given the S&P rebalance announcement is also early June, I'm leaning towards S&P not preemptively dropping MNW, and instead aligning with the delisting schedule - even though that might only be a couple of weeks later.

As per my previous post, I wasn't expecting WHS to drop out of the NZX50 based on ranking, and estimate NPH free-float to be well ahead of BGP. That hinges on BGP having a very low free-float - feel free to correct that if you have a good source.

VSL relative liquidity on the NZX has been continuing to worsen, so a VSL->NPH replacement in June is also plausible.

Once MNW and/or VSL is out, WHS moves up a slot and is even more comfortable. Best bet to knock it out would be a resurgence from two of STU, PEB and RAK - or some big new listings. Could happen eventually, unless WHS gets taken private first.

[Basil]

Briscoes only making $30m NPAT this half but confident of more second half.  Gosh even if they make $33m second half that's only eps of 28 cps for the year and forward PE of 15.7 for a company with no growth.   By comparison I have TRA on forward FY26 metrics of 11.8 and HLG on 10.5 for FY26, average of 2 analysts covering it.  Both those companies are growing... 

[bulltrap]

STU have aspirations to be a NX50 company

It's a sad indictment of the local landscape that the current NZX50 contenders - NPH, BGP, ERD, STU, PEB, RAK - are all supplicants for readmission.