StockTalk

Full props to @Basil, really nailed this one!!

Thanks Ferg, I appreciate you clarifying your thinking.  Possibly worth noting that in the half year to 1 February 2026 the effective tax rate was just under 30%, more or less as I expected, 29.65% a blend of N.Z and Au tax rates.

No doubt we'll get to have a good look under the hood at this again in a months time with the full result released but $1.00 EPS would not surprise me.

I suspect we will be left wondering if this was ever true on 2 March
"The Board advises shareholders that it is in active negotiations with an overseas party regarding a potential major investment in PharmaZen.

These negotiations are at a critical stage and as a result the Board has placed a trading halt on PharmaZen shares until the negotiations are concluded.

The Board will keep shareholders informed as this matter develops further."

When on 30 March the receivers walk in

Thanks Minimoke...thats the indication I got from AI too.

Quote from: Herbert240 on Aug 28, 2026, 11:26 AMHave been trying to find out how PAZ shareholders stand. AI has painted a bleak picture. Does anyone know when this info will become known?

It appears all assets have now been sold to another entity.
PAZ debt will be paid off and I suspect $0.00 will be left for shareholders.

I picked up the average tax $$$ as a % of NPBT for the last 2 years.  2025 was 32.4%, 2024 was 33.8%, although I see 2024 was inflated by the removal of depreciation on buildings.....so I could be a touch high.  Maybe 30-31% after correcting for the depreciation deductibility adjustment in 2024.

Reworked:

Say NPAT is $58m* that is EPS of around 97c.  Last year was 66c.

*using $83.5m NPBT less 30.5% tax

Have been trying to find out how PAZ shareholders stand. AI has painted a bleak picture. Does anyone know when this info will become known?

Meanwhile the other major New Zealand milk and dairy companies are...making pay.

Fonterra lifted its full-year FY26 earnings forecast to 60–70 cents per share with operating profits of $1.8 billion and Westland a record pre-tax profit of $58m driven by high-margin exports like lactoferrin.

Synlait pivoting its milk processing into basic Whole Milk Powder due to "operational bottlenecks" (aka their own stupidity) right when global prices for WMP crashed, locked in significant margins losses while everyone else capitalized on high-margin products like lactoferrin that are in peak demand.   

Any company with an announcement containing the phrase, "recovery roadmap" is a massive warning, like quills on a porcupine.  Don't touch!

Not sure why you have used a 33% tax rate Ferg.  Anyway, here's my thoughts.  Its fair to say that I am a bit puzzled how the guidance could be so amazingly good.

Gosh, where do I start ? Well I have picked myself up off the floor and am trying to make sense of this.

Frankly I thought Winner's sales estimate of $515m was soundly based. Historically they have averaged 54% of annual sales in the first half and 46% in 2H so based on that historical pattern and $275m for the first half I thought somewhere around where you guessed it made sense but of course with the war and higher costs of living it could have been a bit less. I woke up this morning and nervously thought, gosh, have the analysts got a bit carried away with their consensus of $535m ?

Then on margins I thought, gosh there must be higher freight costs so I started to have a mild panic attack that consensus of $535m gross sales, $72.3m NTBT giving EPS of about 84 CPS (based on an amalgam of Aust tax rate at 30% weighted two thirds to that and one third to N.Z. at 28% = estimated group tax rate of 29.3%) maybe I am setting myself up for disappointment.

So I nervously distracted myself and had my breakfast and then oh my goodness.

Sales in 2H have actually accelerated $563m annual- $275m in first half = $288m second half, surely not ?
Margins have also expanded notwithstanding increased shipping and distribution costs...how on earth have they done this ?
Net Profit up 43.5% against from memory 32% in the first half is frankly, incredible.

Mid point of forecast is $83.75m less estimated group tax rate of 29.3% ($24.5m) = $59.25m, that's EPS of 99.4 CPS which is more than analysts consensus expectations for FY28 !! Its an incredible 18% EPS beat on consensus analyst expectations.

Even more importantly as the most recent information is always the most pertinent, the business clearly has exceptionally strong sales and margin momentum heading into FY27.

How have they done this against a backdrop of heightened geopolitical tension, a cost of living crisis, additional international freight and local distribution costs is frankly something so remarkable I am almost lost for words.

You know, sometimes in your life you get this rare moment of crystal clear clarity and that happened to me a few months ago when I was feeling a bit low about the Middle East situation and its impact on retail. I saw this pretty young woman on a billboard in Auckland city, (sorry I can't even remember what the advertisement was about), but the epiphany that that came to me like a ray of sunshine direct from the heavens above was this, "never underestimate young people's desire to dress well, look cool and fit in with their peer group" Its a fundamental need they have not a want. Whether that epiphany was a divine inspiration or not, (I think it was), I'm very grateful it came to me. Sometimes in your darker days you really need a ray of sunshine.

Holy heck that is impressive.  Say NPAT is $56m* that is EPS of around 94c.  Last year was 66c.

*using $83.5m NPBT less 33% tax