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SPK - Spark NZ

Started by Left Field, Jul 13, 2022, 08:21 AM

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BlackPeter

Quote from: LoungeLizard on Dec 04, 2024, 04:23 PMI'll try again. I'm not making the point that Craigs or any of these investment houses are inherently more correct in their SP forecasts than anyone else. For Spark or any other company. I'm NOT using their analysis or predictions as a basis of why I think SPK has been oversold. Any bias I have is against these sort of pronouncements, not for.

I was trying to point out that if you are going to quote these institutions "analysis" as some sort of basis to follow - as the original poster appeared to do - then you've got to follow it through. You can't accept the rather shonky assertion that SPK are perhaps OVERVALUED, and then ignore the fact that these same institutions, at the end of the day, after all their analysis and criticism, still come up with a $4 SP. You can't cherry pick the negative analysis and throw out the target price. It's either both or none. I vote for none.

There are better number crunchers than me that have drilled down into Sparks accounts and have provided what seems - to me anyway - compelling evidence that Spark is in better shape than what some would think. Snoopy on the other site, has gone into a lot of detail, which I'm sure you've read (and probably disagree with).

The overselling is, to put it mildly, a historical anomaly. Some negative reaction to an underwhelming set of results and guidance, is appropriate, but 45%? Some people like to say that with the future being anyone's guess, then the past is our best indicator. Hang on, I think that might have been you? Sparks past - the SP, dividend history, and relative stability (until now) - doesn't sit well with the current negativity and volatility, some of which was manufactured by shorters and short-term index traders. All of this will come to pass.

 I still see value in Spark as a solidly defensive stock in a number of essential industries that has a long, and on-going history of paying a good yield. Is the current yield sustainable? Maybe, maybe not. At the moment, with the country being in the grip of an austerity minded Government that is leading us boldly into recession, Sparks "discretionary" sources of income - mobile, cloud, consultancy - is under pressure. They are also spending money on broadening their income into data-centres, which I think is the right thing to do, but is too soon to bear fruit.

But whatever the reason for the SP dip, its severity doesn't look or feel right to me, partly for historical reasons and partly because I think a lot of the current problems are temporary and will, in time, be corrected. That might require the wider economy to improve first, but in the meantime I'm happy to bank the (current) 8.6% dividend.

If one looks to fundamentals only, would anyone think that FBU are worth more than Spark right now? FBU who made a 227m Net LOSS and haven't paid dividend since the middle of last year are worth more than Spark who made a 316m PROFIT and paid a 27.5c dividend? Of course not, yet that is how the market sees it. I realise I'm swimming against the tide here, but I remain convinced that the market is badly wrong and at some point - sooner or later - there will be a significant favourable re-rating.   
 

Mmh - must be tough to find a stock which makes Spark look good, but yes - you did it (FBU).

Just to clarify, I would at current see both of them at current prices as high risk investment, though Spark might have a more solid base line, while for FBU I see higher risks but as well more potential if everything works out (but when does that happen?). But this is for a different thread.

I'd think though that for most investors its not about finding only the second worst investment and being happy with it, but finding one which is actually good. I'd currently count neither Spark nor FBU in this category ...

While it appears that we flogged the horse of unreliable target prices enough for this argument - you still didn't give us one good reason why Spark stock prices should go up again. The fact that the market did overate them for some time in the past does not really count (market has this habit of wrongly pricing stocks - just look what it gave at some stages for duds like RYM, SML or A2M - just ridiculous). Market clearly can be clueless for extended periods of time.

BTW: Using the past as the best guide for the future is one of Basils standard statements. In some situations (e.g. when trying to forecast peoples behaviour) would I agree that the past might be a useful (though rarely a good) guide. In many situations however I strongly disagree with this statement.

LoungeLizard

Quote from: BlackPeter on Dec 04, 2024, 04:55 PMMarket clearly can be clueless for extended periods of time.

Well, you got that right.

Otago K

See Milford Asset Management are a buyer of the stock by today disclosure notice over the period from 26 Nov to 11 Dec 2024.

LoungeLizard

Quote from: Otago K on Dec 13, 2024, 10:14 AMSee Milford Asset Management are a buyer of the stock by today disclosure notice over the period from 26 Nov to 11 Dec 2024.


Yep, they've been buying up big recently. Now that the index machinations have been played out, they're sitting pretty. SP moving up to $3 now. Breaking news! - Analysts now say that SPK may have been oversold ;)   

entrep

https://archive.is/2024.12.12-214338/https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/dataroom/spark-of-interest-in-acquisition-flickers-out-for-telstra/news-story/03630a30ceeb8be3a8fe4d14ea3a72e7?amp&nk=c5e0751d3fea9206347b4e8040ec53dc-1734039837

KW

"more likely is a focus on its plan to sell down its data centre interests. It is understood the data centres were more capital-intensive than anticipated"

LOL.  
Don't drink and buy shares in a downtrend, you bloody idiot.

LoungeLizard

Quote from: KW on Dec 16, 2024, 12:16 PM"more likely is a focus on its plan to sell down its data centre interests. It is understood the data centres were more capital-intensive than anticipated"

LOL. 

Reads more like a speculative piece. No mention of a source for the comments about selling fibre or data centre assets. Could be true but Sparks latest comments indicate they want to "support our development pipeline, and we are currently exploring capital partnerships to achieve this."

That sounds to me that they are looking, belatedly perhaps, to bringing other investors on board, rather than selling the assets themselves.


seaweed

Quote from: Otago K on Dec 13, 2024, 10:14 AMSee Milford Asset Management are a buyer of the stock by today disclosure notice over the period from 26 Nov to 11 Dec 2024.

Looks like Firstcape Group LTD. are also sniffing around at 92,000,000+ yesterdays announcement and Milford a few days ago. Looks like some of these sniffers are getting in early to try and price match LoungeLizard and myself in case sp doesn't fall as low as some are saying lol. 

seaweed

All quiet around here lately. 6 weeks quiet. Was thinking of buying some IFT but couldn't help myself and bought more SPK. Food for thought...10,000 IFT with 20c div would get me $2000 div. and cost about $110,000 @ $11 per share, in a slight down trend in last 2 months. So I bought more SPK instead...$110,000 = 37,931 shares @ $2.90 per share and 25c div. which gives me a $9,482.75c div. The sp is in a holding pattern last 3 months but have noticed an ever so slight uptrend in last 7 weeks. But the 37,000 odd shares is but a little top up for the next div payout. Thank you that is all I want to say until next time. Have a good day and a dancing I shall go. seaweed