HGH - Heartland Group Holdings

[Left Field]

Serious question for those of you that are bearish on the stock: realistically how much stock price impact do you expect under your pessimistic scenarios where they take an upfront large bad debts write down?

I've been bearish on HGH since the ill fated badly managed cap raise around $1.80

I also posted a chart warning Basil about his HGH purchase in a downtrend and our resident guru prolific poster roundly criticised me (and others)  for questioning his wisdom.... we were all called 'naysayers."

Now Basil has joined the naysayers.

At some future stage HGH's TA may show an uplift in the downwards trend and perhaps herald a golden cross.... if all that is accompanied by a change to more positive FA then HGH may become a buy.

Every dog has its day.... but until then stay away.

[Basil]

One of the secrets to investing I have learned over the years is you're never going to get every call right, but you must take fast action when the game changes and companies start engaging in creative accounting.

When companies start with highly questionable and creative accounting practices and you can escape a fresh position with a breakeven result, I think that's a pretty satisfactory outcome in the circumstances, especially given the surprising length and quite extreme depth of the recession.  I'm up more than 20% on where I reallocated that capital in late 2024 so I'm very happy I took early action when I wasn't happy with the answers to questions raised at the annual meeting.  I enjoyed my second-best year ever in 2024 so am very pleased with the overall investment results achieved.   

Others have claimed they had better forward vision on HGH in 2024 and whilst that's quite probably true, I am very content with my overall track record with Heartland over the last decade or so.

[lorraina]

I once read in I think it was a Buffett book, if you get 6 out of 10 calls/investments right, you will make money on the share market.
I have made every mistake possible,but remain "well positioned."
What I have tried to do is add to my winners and sell my losers.
However, too often I have sold down a winner to get a free ride.
That said I have had a great deal of fun following the market for many many years.

[LoungeLizard]

I've been bearish on HGH since the ill fated badly managed cap raise around $1.80

I also posted a chart warning Basil about his HGH purchase in a downtrend and our resident guru prolific poster roundly criticised me (and others)  for questioning his wisdom.... we were all called 'naysayers."

Now Basil has joined the naysayers.

At some future stage HGH's TA may show an uplift in the downwards trend and perhaps herald a golden cross.... if all that is accompanied by a change to more positive FA then HGH may become a buy.

Every dog has its day.... but until then stay away.

Yep, same here. Bailed early when the writing on the wall was only too plain to see. Tried to warn others but got shot at from all sides. Now the same people are wise after the event 

There's more pain to come with HGH I feel, and I'm still extremely dubious whether the OZ banking gamble will ever pay off. There's a strong chance in my view that HGH will join the long list of kiwi businesses that retreat from OZ with their tail between their legs.
HGH are perceived rightly as a risky stock (SP graph is awful) and would have to fall further before I'd throw any money at it. I wouldn't be at all surprised if it is sub-90c in a few months.

[Basil]

I once read in I think it was a Buffett book, if you get 6 out of 10 calls/investments right, you will make money on the share market.

Yeap, agreed, nobody including those here 'kindly" repeating I told you so, gets every call right, FAR from it. 

I have been to a few Fisher funds annual meetings now and they trot out that 6 out of 10 line from time to time when they've had a mediocre year.  I think you really need to get about eight calls out of ten right or better to make really serious money.

What I learned with Heartland last year is they really are a fair-weather company.  They do well when the economy does well and very poorly when the economy tanks.   The economy was a lot worse for a lot longer last year than I thought it would be and I got it wrong in 2024 but am grateful to escape with a break-even result.   That's no worse than anyone who simply stayed out, except for the opportunity cost of what could have been made elsewhere. I guess Geoff's statement many years ago that the fortunes of the company are inextricably tied to the economy is the lesson to never ever forget.  Heartland will do okay again one day when the economy starts doing well again and they have cleaned up all the mess from the long and deep recession and their loose lending policies and then in due course when the economy goes into recession again, they will tank yet again.  An absolute classic cyclical company that's only ever been good as a trading opportunity that some people who have called it right nine times out of ten or thereabouts, have done very well out of over the last decade.  Buy and hold simply doesn't work well with Heartland.

These days I prefer companies that have proven they are extremely resilient no matter what the economic conditions.

[Shareguy]

You got a response to Nicola as well

Probably raved on without getting the point ... that's what she did to me

Doesn't give any confidence in what they say

Exactly the case Winner. Just repeated my question and agreed with my facts and said all will be revealed in Feb. Very disappointing indeed.

[Basil]

At the annual meeting Leanna Lazurus warned of very high business liquidations and the impact on the company.  Doesn't look like things have changed since then.  https://www.1news.co.nz/2025/01/17/nz-sees-highest-annual-business-liquidation-count-in-10-years/

[Syd]

Good to see small steps upwards for this Stock , bucking the long term trend . some investors obviously did'nt get the dire memo from the Throne about what a disastrous result we're going to hear about next month, if indeed that is the case , my crystal ball is a bit murky at present someone else has obviously got a later model !! lol !!

[snapiti]

Good to see small steps upwards for this Stock , bucking the long term trend . some investors obviously did'nt get the dire memo from the Throne about what a disastrous result we're going to hear about next month, if indeed that is the case , my crystal ball is a bit murky at present someone else has obviously got a later model !! lol !!

confident the results will be poor, question is has the market priced it in

[LaserEyeKiwi]

HGH breaking out here by he looks of it.

[Forrestdun]

Still marching higher on good volumes

[Syd]

Yep what a shame they're not listening to the experts on here , who have all been reiterating how bad things are!
Time will tell , but good money has been made in the last few weeks and as the man said "be greedy when others are fearful" and you can smell the fear on this forum at least !

[Syd]

Great day for HGH finished on $1.12 with 1 Million shares traded. lol !!

[BlackPeter]

Great day for HGH finished on $1.12 with 1 Million shares traded. lol !!

Golden Cross can't be far off.

[Greekwatchdog]

Its a strange rise given we are set for a poor result and hefty provisions.

Maybe $0.95 was the bottom (good picking if you got it currently) and investors with a more patient and longer term view are prepared to what will be poor number. Guidance will be interesting for the FY.

I am more interested on how the transition of all the spend up over last 2 years is going. Really wanting to see this start to show up on the NIM.

I bought in @ $1.06 before FY expecting result and nothing will be interested to see how Management come accross during the result.