FPH - Fisher Paykel Healthcare Corp

[Left Field]

Phillips, a major competitor to FPH in the USA sleep apnea market is having difficulties.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2022/07/23/cpap-machine-recall-sleep-apnea/
Lots of interesting info' about the USA market........ will this work in FPH's favour? We shall see

The above posted back in July...... now the FDA is involved and Phillips is having more issues and a major recall.

https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/safety-communications/certain-philips-respironics-masks-bipap-cpap-machines-recalled-due-safety-issue-magnets-may-affect

Good news for FPH (possibly the reason for the SP rise in the last couple of days.)

[Arbroath]

Still headed for $15 imho as the valuation is just too high in a world where the discount rate of future earnings is rising and they trade on such a high PE

A great company but not a great investment at these levels.

[winner (n)]

Still headed for $15 imho as the valuation is just too high in a world where the discount rate of future earnings is rising and they trade on such a high PE

A great company but not a great investment at these levels.

While analysts come up with things like this it will always be 'over priced' until punters realise that most analysts have ulterior motives

In media "Citigroup also maintained a Buy rating on the stock with a A$23.50 price target."

I reckon if I asked Lewis Gradon would he pay $11 billion for such a company he'd reply "No way" and laugh his head off

[Basil]

Still headed for $15 imho as the valuation is just too high in a world where the discount rate of future earnings is rising and they trade on such a high PE

A great company but not a great investment at these levels.

I agree based on current earnings and am on record as calling this as substantially overvalued as far back as when it was $30 when it was already in a confirmed downtrend.  Anyone who listened to that barking should be pleased.

In addition, I think the potential for further downgrades and revisions is VERY high with 10 years hardware sales heavily compressed into 2 years.

I've never been enthusiastic about buying market darlings on super elevated metrics.

[winner (n)]

they say share prices follow earnings

Sure has in FPH's case ... and as the NPAT trend shown below the share price could/should go even lower

Guidance/forecast NPAT F23 back to where it was in 2018

Maybe the Phillips recall of masks will add billions of sales to FPH top line and a new trend will start

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[Basil]

Downtrend remains intact to a fresh 52 week low of $18.50, (down another 8% in September), despite the massive fall in the $kiwi this month.  A 2.1% dividend yield and trades on 55 times consensus FY23 earnings.  Hmmm   https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/FISHER-PAYKEL-HEALTHCAR-6492630/financials/
Still makes for a fantastic short opportunity in my opinion.

I reckon there is potential here for this to go under $10 at some stage in 2023 (28 times FY23 average forecast earnings).
Worse, one wonders how much the E of that PE is under threat with a decade's worth of hardware sold in the last 2 years.

[winner (n)]

Headlines at market close today

F&P Healthcare drags market lower

On the equities market front, healthcare manufacturer Fisher & Paykel Healthcare slumped 4.4% to $18.73 and traded the most volume across the index – almost $11m.

Interest rates rising at great rate ..... wonder what FPH valuation is if analysts used a 10% discount rate .....or even higher than 10%

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/m...s-market-lower

[Shareguy]

Result better than Fbar expected

Forecast NPAT of $88m Actual $96m

Forecast DPS $.011    Actual $17.5

DRP returned

[Left Field]

FPH 1H FY23 result out....

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/403204..... as Shareguy say's it's not all bad......

Overview of key results for the first half of the 2023 financial year

• 57% decline in net profit after tax to $95.9 million, 65% decline in constant currency.
• 23% decline in operating revenue to $690.6 million, 27% decline in constant currency.
• 35% decline in Hospital operating revenue to $438.7 million, 37% decline in constant currency.
• 23% decline in constant currency for new applications consumables (products used in noninvasive ventilation, Optiflow nasal high flow and surgical applications) accounting for 68% of Hospital consumables revenue.
• 10% growth in Homecare operating revenue, 4% growth in constant currency.
• Investment in R&D was 12% of revenue, or $84.2 million.
• 3% increase in interim dividend to 17.5 cps (H1 FY22: 17.0 cps).

[winner (n)]

leftie - good, bad or ho hum

[Left Field]

Not bad considering last FY was exceptional..... as FPH say:

For the six months ended 30 September 2022, total operating revenue was $690.6 million, above the $670 million guided by the company in its August trading update.

While revenue was down 23% on the first half of the prior year (or 27% in constant currency), this was a 21% increase on the comparable pre-pandemic period, being the first half of the 2020 financial year ($570.9 million). Net profit after tax for the first half was $95.9 million, a 57% decline from the prior comparable period, or a 65% decline in constant currency.

It's going to be interesting to see how the market reacts.

[Shareguy]

Result not as good once drilling down.

$22m of NPAT was exchange gains compared to previous period of $.06m gain.
 
A great company but currently fully valued in my opinion.

[Left Field]

leftie - good, bad or ho hum

Hey Winner. I've given up forecasting SP's (well, on this forum.) Better to let the market do what it does. But suffice it to say given the FPH SP action so far today I'm v happy. Given the IKE results also - I'm even more happy. Great day for my portfolio.

[Shareguy]

Latest from Craig's

Our target price increases 13% to $21.77, which is half driven by the easing in the RFR over November (FPH's valuation is highly sensitive to this given the long duration of cashflows) and half due to earnings upgrades. We upgrade FY23 revenue 4% to $1.50bn and NPAT 3% to $224m, and upgrade FY24e NPAT 10% to $284m, driven by a pull forward of gross margin recovery. While our visibility of and confidence in FPH's recovery is improving, FPH shares are now trading at higher levels than before the "mother of all downgrades" at the August ASM despite (i) consensus FY23e being c.20-25% lower than it was prior to the ASM downgrade and (ii) RFR being c.100bps higher. On 47x FY24e, a strong recovery is already priced in (particularly following yesterday's rally) and we maintain Underweight on valuation grounds.

[Left Field]

Crikey, don't tell Craigs....... FPH up another 3% today...... into the $24's.