FPH - Fisher Paykel Healthcare Corp

Started by Left Field, Jul 06, 2022, 01:43 PM

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Left Field

'golden cross' is a bullish signal as it relates to a particular stock.... and of course it doesn't always relate to the general market.

Click on the words above and all is revealed.
"The difficulty lies not in new ideas... but in escaping from old ideas." (J M Keynes.)

kasper

Mean concensus by 10 analysts is Outperform with avg tp of $23.22 so take Craigs analysis with a grain of salt i reckon.

winner (n)

The much touted golden cross coming up soon

At the rate the 200MA is going down the 50MA should cross at about $25.50

Then we can say FPH is really bullish

But as Peter said when a golden cross actually happens its the signal you should have bought a month or so ago


winner (n)

Bolly bonds hinting at a break out

Shareguy

Have been trying to get some under $20 but no luck.  FPH busy recruiting for new production lines in Auckland.  Fishers and other buying last quarter.  A good bottom draw share, which my broker says will be taken over one day and great buying under $25(his opinion).

Not cheap but I have learnt that quality costs.  Added to my position this morning.   

Left Field

#20
Ouch..... some would say it's a downgrade..... some would say it is already priced in. Some would say FPH just being realistic and it's BAU......

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/397210

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare provides guidance for first half of FY23

Auckland, New Zealand, 19 August 2022 – Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation Limited today provided revenue and net profit after tax guidance for the first half of the 2023 financial year ending 30 September 2022.

At current exchange rates, and assuming a continuation of trading conditions in the first four months, the company expects operating revenue for the first half of the 2023 financial year to be approximately $670 million and net profit after tax to be approximately $85 million to $95 million.

This would represent an increase in revenue on pre-pandemic levels (1HFY20: $570.9M) and a decline in revenue compared to the prior comparable period (1HFY22: $900.0M).

Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Lewis Gradon said, "As we detailed in our full year results announcement, we dramatically increased production in response to the pandemic. As a result, we sold approximately ten years' worth of hardware in two years – to hospitals all around the world.

"Our customers also purchased a considerable amount of hospital consumables in preparation for each wave of COVID-19. During the most recent waves of the Omicron variant, fewer patients have required hospitalisation and respiratory support. We believe customer stock levels have been elevated during our first half, which impacts our short-term sales.
"The difficulty lies not in new ideas... but in escaping from old ideas." (J M Keynes.)

winner (n)

Ouch indeed Leftie

I don't think many saw such a decline in sales coming

Be interesting how market reacts

Hope the share price doesn't do an A2

Left Field

Indeed Winner...... SP down to $19.30 in early trades. GLH.

That 10 yrs sales in 1 year coming back to hurt holders.
"The difficulty lies not in new ideas... but in escaping from old ideas." (J M Keynes.)

winner (n)

Analysts were saying H1 revenues 717m and npat 121m

so revenues might not be a surprise but margins seem to have hurt profit

Shareguy

A blue chip company going through a re balance.  I see it as a buying opportunity.  What was the share price again before the pandemic started....and since then what has happened...

Basil

#25
Ugly numbers.  Many parallels to ATM with heavy stocking pre-pandemic and now sales falling off.
Coincidence that the decline in FPH started within a month of the decline of ATM ?

Ugly numbers is going to lead to analysts recalibrating their long term growth assumptions...10 years hardware sales in 2 years, (gosh have they ever explained it in anywhere near such stark terms before ?)

I can see some serious analysts downgrades coming.  Quick back of the envelope, if they make $90m (mid point of guidance this half and say $95m in 2H that's $185m / 577.3m shares = 32 cps.  Even after this mornings decline at $19.60 they trade at approx 61 times FY23 earnings....WOW.

Current consensus is for 49 cps in FY23 growing to 64cps in FY24 and 76 cps in FY25
I can see analysts radially pulling back on those projections and seriously downgrading their DCF valuation.

If I held I would SELL.  Thankfully I have never believed in the hype of super high PE stocks with modest growth rates.

First of 3 downgrades to come ?
Lot of people though the dog was way too bearish with his $15 call earlier this year.
Even at $15 they'd be on a FY23 of ~ 47 which now looks stretched to me.

winner (n)

Quote from: Shareguy on Aug 19, 2022, 11:11 AMA blue chip company going through a re balance.  I see it as a buying opportunity.  What was the share price again before the pandemic started....and since then what has happened...

What has happened ,,,,,, profits are now less than late 2019

winner (n)

FPH annual (rolling 2 halves) sales now 31% down from their peak ..... A2 annual sales down 31% from their peak

That's so spooky

Wonder who will recover the best?

winner (n)

Share price up 4% from its day low .....that's good
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Old mate

Wonder what fisher funds reckon? Still buying more?