FPH - Fisher Paykel Healthcare Corp

Started by Left Field, Jul 06, 2022, 01:43 PM

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Left Field

Feeling the love. Back above $21. Naaice.

But will it hold?

Those who lowered their DCA's in the recent lows beginning to smile.
"The difficulty lies not in new ideas... but in escaping from old ideas." (J M Keynes.)

winner (n)

It's all looking good eh leftie

Gloomy times all over .... onwards and upwards

kasper

Quote from: Left Field on Jul 06, 2022, 01:43 PMFeeling the love. Back above $21. Naaice.

But will it hold?

Those who lowered their DCA's in the recent lows beginning to smile.
Hard to say as she's a volatile beast but longer term she's a gem. PS-Divvy should hit bank account today to boot.

Left Field

Hard to say as she's a volatile beast but longer term she's a gem. PS-Divvy should hit bank account today to boot.
[/quote]

Yep too early to call. But the Divvies a help.
"The difficulty lies not in new ideas... but in escaping from old ideas." (J M Keynes.)

winner (n)

So FPH share price recovering well - close week at $21.41

That's 13% above recent lows .... sounds better than saying only 43% below its high...... could say the down trend from those high has been broken and a new up trend is forming

Maybe its falling NZD and/or interest rates that's driving the rise but whatever the reasons the love is returning to FPH

If love is measured by its PE ratio that love has returned big time ....PE now 43 on FY23 forecast earnings

Go FPH - $25 beckons soon ..... esp if they come out with a trading update

Shareguy

Yes agree . I think the nz$ has a lot to do with it. A great company and should be in everyone's long term portfolio.

Left Field

Good to see you guys optimistic.

Quite a few in my portfolio feeling the love lately...... makes a welcome change!
"The difficulty lies not in new ideas... but in escaping from old ideas." (J M Keynes.)

Plata

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Hospitalisations creeping up again. Reckon the bottom is in? Would love to hold these again but scared of high PE ratios. Sure you can argue it is justified based on industry comparisons but is it justified based on risk vs reward?

kasper

Quote from: Plata on Jul 18, 2022, 09:53 PMYou cannot view this attachment.
Hospitalisations creeping up again. Reckon the bottom is in? Would love to hold these again but scared of high PE ratios. Sure you can argue it is justified based on industry comparisons but is it justified based on risk vs reward?
Feel the Fear but do it anyway, $50 sp within 5 yrs.

Left Field

#9
Phillips, a major competitor to FPH in the USA sleep apnea market is having difficulties.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2022/07/23/cpap-machine-recall-sleep-apnea/

Lots of interesting info' about the USA market........ will this work in FPH's favour? We shall see.



"The difficulty lies not in new ideas... but in escaping from old ideas." (J M Keynes.)

Shareguy

Craig's underweight on FPH

Lower flow: cut to underweight
 FPH shares have outperformed since the result...
FPH shares have recovered over 10% from their June lows, and over 5% since the May result, which we believe reflects 1) the fall in 10-yr T-bills, supporting valuations for defensive duration assets such as FPH 2) increasing Covid hospitalisations and 3) a weaker NZ$. The last two points have lead some investors to conclude FPH will provide a better than expected trading update at its ASM on August 24. We beg to differ.
...but we believe the optimism is misplaced
While the reported number of Covid hospitalisations in the US and Europe has increased in recent weeks, we believe demand for FPH's products to treat Covid is down sharply. Most of the growth in Covid hospitalisations is being driven by an increase in "co-incidental" Covid infections, i.e. patients who were admitted to hospital primarily to treat an ailment other than Covid, but who have tested positive. Data from LA County suggests that the proportion of co-incidental Covid cases has increased from <20% of reported hospitalisations in August last year to c.60% this year. After adjusting for this, we estimate "true" Covid hospitalisations are down 48% YoY year to date. This is supported by a study from Houston Methodist that found that the proportion of Covid hospitalisations that are severe enough to require advanced respiratory support (such as invasive ventilation or High Flow) is 55% lower for the Omicron strain compared to Delta. Covid demand for FPH's devices and consumables seems set to fall materially in FY23. Stats NZ export data, which we think is a good proxy for FPH's total sales (i.e. Hospital + OSA), is tracking down 21% YoY in the June qtr on an adjusted basis (raw data is -34%; see discussion inside the note). The comps will get even tougher in the Sep qtr as FPH laps the Delta outbreak in the US in Aug/Sep last year.
Downgrades ahead: cut to Underweight, $21 price target (-8%)
FPH will face a "double whammy" in FY23 of declining revenue (which we now forecast will fall 16% to $1.41bn, -10% below consensus), and higher costs (guidance is for 13% ccy overhead growth, likely to be partly offset by firmer gross margins as freight costs ease). We have further trimmed our NPAT estimate to $252m (-33% YoY and -11% below consensus). FPH is a quality growth company, but looming downgrades (in our view) combined with a still elevated multiple (44x fwd PE consensus and 49x fwd CIPe), suggest to us the shares will struggle over the next 6-12 months, and we downgrade our recommendation to Underweight with a revised $21 TP (-8%).

winner (n)

Gee shareguy ... not ood from Craigs

Expecting downgrades coming up

At least they didn't say SELL

Left Field

Always good to be cautious.

From a TA perspective, a number of shares such as FPH and GNE are edging close to a 'golden cross.'  Will there be upside breaks? Much depends on this month's results commentary and news IMO.
"The difficulty lies not in new ideas... but in escaping from old ideas." (J M Keynes.)

winner (n)

#13
Quote from: Left Field on Jul 31, 2022, 11:43 AMAlways good to be cautious.

From a TA perspective, a number of shares such as FPH and GNE are edging close to a 'golden cross.'  Will there be upside breaks? Much depends on this month's results commentary and news IMO.

Ari Wald a TA guru doesn't see golden crosses as an absolutely bullish signal for the market

BlackPeter

#14
Quote from: winner (n) on Jul 31, 2022, 12:49 PMAri Wald a TA gurubdoesn't see golden crosses as an absolutely bullish signal for the market

No signal is "absolutely bullish" ... looking into the (always unknown) future.

The constraint that past performance does not predict future performance always applies to share prices as well.

However - one thing is certain: A Golden Cross is ALWAYS a great indicator that you should have bought roughly a couple of months  ago ... It adds so much to improving your hindsight ...

Discl: holding (FPH, not golden crosses  ;D ) ;

Edit: having said all that - who was talking about golden crosses for FPH? Still ways to go until we reach that ...