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EBO-Ebos

Started by Shareguy, Jul 02, 2022, 06:36 AM

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Shareguy

Good fall yesterday.  A great company that has weathered this current storm well.  I'm keen to add to my position if it falls much lower. Anyone else looking?

BlackPeter

Great company, but for my liking still ways too dear. The days of inflated PE's might be over ...

Yesterdays drop was probably just some overseas fund selling. Maybe they have some inkling as well?

winner (n)

EBO PE back to more 'normal' levels - based on forecast F22 earnings current PE is 27

But if we are in a real bear market expect PE to fall to about 15/17 -- but did drop to low teens in past times when the world was falling apart -- could even go that low .....isn't that what happens in bear markets

At a PE of 17 that would give a share price of say $24 and we'd be screaming BUY BUY BUY at the bottom ... and could still be on a losing bet

Anyway here's what the PE has looked like over the years .... but remember this this time its differentYou cannot view this attachment.

winner (n)

One could say that EBO 'deserves' / 'has earnt' a reasonably high PE -- but not outrageously high

Earnings growth over many years pretty impressiveYou cannot view this attachment.

Shareguy

Great graphs winner

Shareguy

Gosh

Forbar downgraded Ebos to $36.45 neutral for upcoming result.

Shareguy

After FPH announcement,I hope EBOS is going to deliver next week.  Thoughts?

Shareguy

Spend the weekend going through Ebos history and current EPS expectations.  I don't think the market is valuing in the latest purchase of Life Healthcare.  Purchased a decent chunk this morning to add to my long term holdings.

Reporting on Wednesday.

winner (n)

Quote from: Shareguy on Aug 22, 2022, 12:00 PMSpend the weekend going through Ebos history and current EPS expectations.  I don't think the market is valuing in the latest purchase of Life Healthcare.  Purchased a decent chunk this morning to add to my long term holdings.

Reporting on Wednesday.

Agree with you 110% about Life Healthcare ......... one day reflected in share price

Shareguy

Quote from: winner (n) on Aug 22, 2022, 12:31 PMAgree with you 110% about Life Healthcare ......... one day reflected in share price

I'm thinking sooner than later, over $40 by end of week.

BlackPeter

Quote from: winner (n) on Aug 22, 2022, 12:31 PMAgree with you 110% about Life Healthcare ......... one day reflected in share price

Admittedly - Ebos (10 yr backward PE 41) looks still a bit cheaper than FPH (10 yr backwards PE of 52), but not by much.

On the other hand: FPH has lots of IP (i.e. a huge moat), while Ebos is basically just a packet shuffler.

Are we sure, market will reprice EBO in the desired direction? Better not wake it up ...

Just looking at the respective SP trends. Interesting - FPH (the orange line) seemed to be up to Covid pretty much in harmony with EBO (blue) ... and then FPH got thanks Covid its big shot into the arm ... but recently dropped back.

You cannot view this attachment.

Just wondering whether the two will go after Covid back into sync ... and whether it is FPH going back up or EBO going back down?

Interesting times ...

Shareguy

Craig's News and Views highlighted the power of dividend growth at work.

If you purchased Ebos in December 2002 was paying 4.7 percent gross interest.  Total dividend growth from 2002 to 2021 (671%)is 11.3 percent per annum. Capital growth was 15.8 percent.

Performance has been spectacular.  Will it continue no one really has any idea. History says it will though. I'm good with that. Its a bottom draw share in my opinion with $50 not far away if past performance continues.

winner (n)

Hey BP, I'm intrigued with your '10 year backward PE'

Is this like the CAPE that some people use?

Whatever do you calculate your 10 year backward PEs or is there a source to look them up.

BlackPeter

Quote from: winner (n) on Aug 22, 2022, 06:39 PMHey BP, I'm intrigued with your '10 year backward PE'

Is this like the CAPE that some people use?

Whatever do you calculate your 10 year backward PEs or is there a source to look them up.

Hi winner,

no idea what a CAPE is - other than some garment for rainy days ... or a headland extending into a body of water.

Re the PE's am I following Churchill's sound advise: "Never trust a statistic (in this case PE) you didn't made up yourself" :p ; Sorry, no (publicly accessible) source I am aware of ... the input (for the individual results) comes from annual reports (or, when I am lazy, from marketscreener) and is going into a big spreadsheet ;). The output comes from my formulas and Microsoft's (Excel) processing.


Shareguy

#14
Thought result was excellent.

Craig's say

Exceptional FY22 result
 EBOS delivered an exceptional FY22 result, with uNPAT up 21% on revenue up 17% on pcp. uNPAT was 3% ahead of consensus and 1.6% ahead of CIPe's top of the street estimates. Acquisitions contributed 8% to growth, 10% was organic, and a furthe 2-3% was driven by Covid (likely to reverse in future)

Retain Overweight

EBOS is not cheap at 24x fwd P/E but is firing on all cylinders, taking market share and leverage in all of its key segments, and offers an attractive combination of defensiveness and growth. Our key concern heading into the result was the impact of inflation on margins, but our concerns have been allayed. We retain Overweight rating with target price lifting 7.7% to $48.44.

No far from $50