(STRICT) OCA - Oceania Healthcare

Started by Benji, Jun 24, 2022, 03:46 PM

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Ferg

Aha, I finally got the meaning of your username.....how is that leisure suit Larry?  Brings back memories....

If I had the answer to the "next 12 months" question I doubt I would be sitting here, posting this....I reckon a bit of all 3: down, sideways and up..!  In the meantime I'm happy to accumulate at current prices and I'm waiting for retail capitulation before committing a larger chunk of cash across the entire industry.  The market has been soggy lately and I'm not sure if the recent reversal is a bull trap, part of the ebbs and flows or something else.

winner (n)

#16
Quote from: BlackPeter on Jun 25, 2022, 04:27 PM...........

If I look at OCA at todays price (and use marketscreeners forward earning consensus) , then it has a forward PE of 8, a backward PE (10 years) of 12 and a forward Earnings CAGR of nearly 8. Not bad for a lame duck, isn't it? ... but than - sure, analysts are in predicting future earnings as often right as they are wrong.

Comparing that with SUM: forward PE is 10 (still good, but a bit worse than OCA), backward PE is 11 (slightly better) but forward earnings CAGR is only 1.5. Looks like that SUM might have already reached its earnings potential and OCA has still lots of headroom to grow.

.....

Give it a decade and I see OCA clearly ahead of SUM (well, in relative terms).

Did take a couple of unrelated paragraphs out of BP's post

Using marketscreener forecasts hows this for a comparison -

OCA Book Value (Equity) per share increased by 11% pa since 2017 ..... marketscreener says 3% pa for the next three years

SUM BV/share increased by 26% pa last 5 years ....marketscreener says 10% pa for the next three years

Seems the OCA rhetoric not being listened to by guru analysts

On those numbers I know which one I prefer as my first pick in the sector (still)

kasper

Quote from: winner (n) on Jun 26, 2022, 09:01 AM
Quote from: BlackPeter on Jun 25, 2022, 04:27 PM...........

If I look at OCA at todays price (and use marketscreeners forward earning consensus) , then it has a forward PE of 8, a backward PE (10 years) of 12 and a forward Earnings CAGR of nearly 8. Not bad for a lame duck, isn't it? ... but than - sure, analysts are in predicting future earnings as often right as they are wrong.

Comparing that with SUM: forward PE is 10 (still good, but a bit worse than OCA), backward PE is 11 (slightly better) but forward earnings CAGR is only 1.5. Looks like that SUM might have already reached its earnings potential and OCA has still lots of headroom to grow.

.....

Give it a decade and I see OCA clearly ahead of SUM (well, in relative terms).

Did take a couple of unrelated paragraphs out of BP's post

Using marketscreener forecasts hows this for a comparison -

OCA Book Value (Equity) per share increased by 11% pa since 2017 ..... marketscreener says 3% pa for the next three years

SUM BV/share increased by 26% pa last 5 years ....marketscreener says 10% pa for the next three years

Seems the OCA rhetoric not being listened to by guru analysts

On those numbers I know which one I prefer as my first pick in the sector (still)
OCA will be $2 plus way before SUM is $20, what more do you need to know?

nztx



Still quite a nice downhill slope since Sep 2021

Has it bottomed yet - any thoughts ?

winner (n)

Quote from: nztx on Jun 27, 2022, 03:39 AMStill quite a nice downhill slope since Sep 2021

Has it bottomed yet - any thoughts ?

Should be all UP from here .....Brent said the other day ' This financial year, full year 2023, is off to a good start, and while only two months in, we can report an observed uptick in our enquiries with sales volumes, average capital gain and resale margins all ahead of the same point last year. '

Good stuff

Whacc

#20
Quote from: Minimoke on Jun 24, 2022, 04:06 PMTheir builds are going well. Windermere is coming on really well.

How are sales going in the first stage at Windermere? 
I recall checking a few months ago and the apartment sales were veeeeeeeeery slow, this was before the property market stalled.

Quote from: Beagle on Jun 25, 2022, 03:36 PMDoes anyone seriously believe this has any hope with its extremely care heavy Govt underfunded business model (that's not been able to grow underlying earnings in the last half decade at all), of outperforming SUM over the medium to long term with its care light business model and proven CAGR of 33% per annum ?


I do.
SUM has been the beneficiary of an obscene property cycle. Easy to look like heroes when it's entirely beyond your control.
If ILUs are the answer then why was MET such an abject failure when its portfolio was 95%+ ILU??

I do think premium care is a great product despite challenges with operating costs.
The frequency of cash flow (that thing everyone seems to have forgotten about) is far, far higher.  You're always racking up and, crucially, realising DMF given the tenure profile and constantly realising resale gains.


Disc: Long OCA but only because I think they are a crazy ripe takeover target.  I don't believe they're particularly well managed currently.

kasper

Lol the CEO and all the directors take more shares in lieu of the dividend, Greg T gets another 529k shares to add to his collection, they all obviously have utmost confidence in the company's future prospects aye, as do I.

winner (n)

More good stuff from Oceania .... a sustainability linked banking facility

Good to see a focus on the environment and their customers happiness and well being

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/394454/373625.pdf

Rawz

Quote from: winner (n) on Jun 29, 2022, 08:43 AMMore good stuff from Oceania .... a sustainability linked banking facility

Good to see a focus on the environment and their customers happiness and well being

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/394454/373625.pdf

Does this mean the rate is lower? If so good move...


kasper

Quote from: Rawz on Jun 29, 2022, 10:35 AM
Quote from: winner (n) on Jun 29, 2022, 08:43 AMMore good stuff from Oceania .... a sustainability linked banking facility

Good to see a focus on the environment and their customers happiness and well being

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/394454/373625.pdf

Does this mean the rate is lower? If so good move...


The rate is only lower if they manage to meet all the criteria otherwise their rate goes up so some risk of a worse outcome for the company and shareholders.

winner (n)

Quote from: kasper on Jun 29, 2022, 10:39 AM
Quote from: Rawz on Jun 29, 2022, 10:35 AM
Quote from: winner (n) on Jun 29, 2022, 08:43 AMMore good stuff from Oceania .... a sustainability linked banking facility

Good to see a focus on the environment and their customers happiness and well being

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/OCA/394454/373625.pdf

Does this mean the rate is lower? If so good move...


The rate is only lower if they manage to meet all the criteria otherwise their rate goes up so some risk of a worse outcome for the company and shareholders.

Its nice of the banks to give Oceania a discount if they do some good sustainability stuff ..... money for nothing?

Shareholders should be happy as

winner (n)

Chris Lee - love him or hate him it seems - but he paints a pretty grim picture of the retirement sector from both an operational and investor point of view

https://www.chrislee.co.nz/taking-stock

Investors should form their judgements when they review their exposure to the sector.

Arvida's grim news in Timaru is unlikely to be caused by management or governance failure. The change being faced may thus be secular, not cyclical.

kasper

Quote from: winner (n) on Jun 30, 2022, 12:39 PMChris Lee - love him or hate him it seems - but he paints a pretty grim picture of the retirement sector from both an operational and investor point of view

https://www.chrislee.co.nz/taking-stock

Investors should form their judgements when they review their exposure to the sector.

Arvida's grim news in Timaru is unlikely to be caused by management or governance failure. The change being faced may thus be secular, not cyclical.

A shortage of 4000 nurses is Govt failure, shutting the door on overseas nurses for the last 2 yrs and not having the foresight to plan ahead , not to mention even though the door has now been reopened nurses have to work 2 yrs to obtain residency compared to many other professions on the short list who can walk straight into it when they arrive. Its definately cyclical not secular but the cycle could be a reasonably long one until the likes of Andrew Little opens his eyes and stops pretending all is under control.

winner (n)

Great excitment at ASM when Brent said sales so far this year were ahead of last year

So sales for H123 hopefully going to be more than the 230 they did H122 (last year)

Be good if they got over the reported 268 they did in H121 - that would be a better indicator of growth

Probably get a feel of how much 'ahead' is when Summerset report June quarter sales in a few days

Makes you wonder why Oceania can't do quarterly numbers as well .....maybe seen as commercially sensitive / keeping shareholders in the dark

Mr Cashflow

The most sought-after company in the forum. How about their debt level, financial health and growth?