Santana Minerals Limited

Started by Basil, Jul 29, 2024, 11:47 AM

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Otago K

If you are interested in being knowledgeable of the business you might be invested perhaps this Michael Laws hosted The Platform NZ 25 minutes Podcast with SMI CEO Damian Spring is worthy of a look, perhaps more good info to the non financial aspects. May end up behind a paywall after a time perhaps but I don't know.

https://theplatform.kiwi/podcasts/episode/santana-minerals-ceo-damian-spring-on-the-tarras-mine

Waltzing

M Laws  is always interesting...lately he has been digging into all sorts of things...

hes is worth a listen ..

Otago K

#62
You Tube posted 8 days ago, I suggest highly worth viewing if SMI consideration is on your radar, admittedly I had a sense of Sam Smith being a bit of a market hype man  and had preferred to watch the Damian Spring content in the past.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XF3WGg-lGGU

I haven't found the window of opportunity with real life family commitments and health considerations to make the trip to community presentations I had posted intent to in earlier posts of this thread. This might answer all my outstanding questions of the proposed operation.


The boil may have come off the stock price this month, logic would suggest a negative correlation of the price level to good or bad news the last few months, Mr Market eh, maybe the expectations of others haven't been met whereas I see otherwise. Anyways suns been up a while now so check it out if you want a bit of icing it may sweeten your portfolio for a good few years. Mining is always speculative but this video tells what might be the conceivable out-performance future IRR, c/f Macraes Operations of Oceania Gold is never likely to match. Think the random websites that refer to Mexico and ? Indonesia activities maybe obsolete, I believe one Santana operation overseas has no further financial commitment on SMI with a reduced % share, and the other has been walked away from, suspect SMI see where the value is in their previous opportunities.

Habitz

At approx 4 mins "which keeps it hidden from the local community". For what reason.. theft or that it would be upsetting to snowflakes

Otago K

Quote from: Habitz on Dec 15, 2024, 10:04 AMAt approx 4 mins "which keeps it hidden from the local community". For what reason.. theft or that it would be upsetting to snowflakes

Just my speculation regards the quote, firstly perhaps reflective of Sam Smith maybe not the best PR man when attempting to appease say those who have a fundamental Mining is dirty and has no place in NZ, no need to consider mitigations of my concerns, just do not do it (Mine).
I know the types of requirements for council consenting for a building on the land, will be couched in terms of whether it is normal to the visuals for the surrounding aspect etc. In essence it would need to be seen from the air or to a very restricted views likely from higher grounds not publicly free to access I suspect, around the Shepherds Creek to be aware of it.
The proportion of current cash burn being applied to appeasing other folk who hold they have rights of concern are not being skimped on, admittedly that might be to ease the submission hurdles.
All my joining dots but in a context that I have spent time on the land of one of the 3 principal Stations that are under royalty for recovery quantities of gold some 30 years ago, not really my neck of woods but have some connections nearby.

Dolcile

I've just been have a look at Santana.  The thing that strikes me, is that management place far too bigger emphasis on the project economics assuming gold A$4k which appears to be the High Case.  This produces an A$1b NPV.

The base case, using A$2.8k, is a far less attractive NPV of A$0.5m.   I'm finding it hard to get excited about this project, unless of course we expect gold to remain at these levels. 

Basil

#66
Quote from: Dolcile on Jan 07, 2025, 11:30 AMI've just been have a look at Santana.  The thing that strikes me, is that management place far too bigger emphasis on the project economics assuming gold A$4k which appears to be the High Case.  This produces an A$1b NPV.

The base case, using A$2.8k, is a far less attractive NPV of A$0.5m.   I'm finding it hard to get excited about this project, unless of course we expect gold to remain at these levels. 

If you are interested in my viewpoint kindly review posts 18,38,49,54,57,and 59 which sets out my thinking and forms the basis for a very small portfolio allocation to Santana.

Others will have far more extensive gold mining investment experience than me but as I understand it they need to lay out a very conservative base case for project financing.  I also understand they cannot put a valuation on anything other than probable reserves.  Inferred reserves or future discoveries as they progress through life of mine cannot be encapsulated in any DCF valuation.

Gold is current trading at about $US2,650, approx $A4,200 so the high case you refer too is actually the spot price case.  Like any other commodity Gold could go down, sideways or up or in any of those directions to a varying degree.  Based on my research its outperformed the S&P500 since 1997.

To me, the way the US are undermining their future with running record fiscal deficits, they look like they are headed for a fiscal implosion at some point in the next decade.  That and the current geopolitical environment suggest to me Gold is a good place to invest as part of a well-diversified portfolio.

Keep in mind the Marth Hill mine at Waihi started in the late 1980's, was only expected to have a very limited life but is still going and has another 10 years to go.

This is highly speculative as it hasn't even got resource consent yet but my long term prognosis is this:
I think they will find a lot more Gold as they progress through the life of mine and it will have a vastly longer lifetime than 10 years.
I suspect the Gold price will keep going up broadly in line with the S&P500 over time.  In time, we could see Gold substantially higher than where it is now.

All that said, all you can do is work with the mine economics as they are currently presented.  At current spot prices the mine has a forecast NPV of more than three times the market cap.  That NPV is calculated using as discount rate of 10%.  If things go well with this mine and the gold price keeps going up in line with the S&P500 investors today could see extremely lucrative returns over the life of mine.

Yes, its highly speculative and risky but expert commentators talking on CNBC this morning were opining that people should have as much as 20% of their portfolio in alternative assets.  Traditional portfolio theory suggests having 5-10% of your portfolio in alternative assets.  Whether that's Gold, some other precious commodity, crypto, art, racehorses or whatever, I'm of the opinion that one's Invesment in alternative assets needs to be based on some credible proposition that looks like it's going to make money.   

Triple your money on current spot prices looks pretty good to me, (the high case if Gold doubles or triples over the next 10-15 years from here could be ten times your money), but it's just a very small stake at this stage for me.  Doubling it or more at some stage down the track is something I am thinking of doing.

Santana has had a pretty decent pullback from its high of ~ $2.70 pre-split, (90 cents ex split).  I'm watching and waiting for the entry point to double or perhaps triple my original modest outlay.

FWIW. I made ten times my money on a small stake in Mineral resources in the 1980's when I first started investing.  It would be nice in my latter years to repeat that feat with Santana but a lot of things would have to progress favorably for that to happen.  Time will tell.

Latest drill results  https://api.nzx.com/public/announcement/444834/attachment/435353/444834-435353.pdf

Basil

Interesting price and volume action today.  Up 20% on unusually high volume.  Wonder if they'll get a "speeding ticket " ?

raW tent Buffer

On no news as well, pretty odd... See what happens tomorrow when Aus and Auckland are back from holiday
"Opportunities come infrequently. When it rains gold, put out the bucket, not the thimble."

Otago K

Quote from: raW tent Buffer on Jan 27, 2025, 04:24 PMOn no news as well, pretty odd... See what happens tomorrow when Aus and Auckland are back from holiday

Suspect it has been a bit of a delay in market attention to the 23 January issued December 2024 Quarter report.My assessment still more to the upside of what was previously in the public knowledge.

Also I don't think the share price has too much correlation to what I see as positive news days or otherwise. Maybe the boom early NZX months were hype and some FOMO, on a restricted initial supply?

 As I understand it the ASX have very restrictive rules around disclosures in prospective phase when it has any questions of certainty. I am guessing the Directors probably envisaged a somewhat higher share price than of late due to some performance bonuses lapsed, certainly can not identify anything else that has fallen short on where they are projecting.

Later in 2027 is still a bit of a wait for any distribution returns but maybe anyone buying needs to watch lower $0.50 over the longer term???


Basil

#71
Gold hits record high overnight, nearly $US2,900 an ounce.

The way the U.S. are debasing their currency with record fiscal deficits I think the oldest currency in the world, (gold) could continue its bull run for a very long time.

There's something very real and tangible about gold and silver that has stood the test of time for thousands of years

Santana looks well positioned to me with an exciting future ahead of it.  With the economic multiplier effect I expect north of 1000 jobs to be created by the mine which will be a real boost to the region

Disc: Small holding

BlackPeter

Quote from: Basil on Feb 05, 2025, 08:29 AMGold hits record high overnight, nearly $US2,900 an ounce.

The way the U.S. are debasing their currency with record fiscal deficits I think the oldest currency in the world, (gold) could continue its bull run for a very long time.

There's something very real and tangible about gold and silver that has stood the test of time for thousands of years

Santana looks well positioned to me with an exciting future ahead of it.  With the economic multiplier effect I expect north of 1000 jobs to be created by the mine which will be a real boost to the region

Disc: Small holding

I agree that Dump works hard to remove the US and its currency from any international relevance. Nobody likes bullies. Not sure, though whether this must be a driver for the gold price. Did gold really go up during the decline of the Dutch empire or the British Empire? It certainly dropped during WW II - which would have been the decline of Hitlers one thousand year long empire (I know, time flies, when you are having fun).

I suppose the gold price is more a measure of uncertainty, and same as gold peaked between 1934 and 1937 (i.e. before the start of WW II- here is a tab: https://nma.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/historic_gold_prices_1833_pres.pdf) might the same now happen with Dumps weird attempts to bully friends and compliment fellow autocrats. While I don't doubt things might get worse for some time, peak risk (not peak pain) might well be right now.

Basil

Plenty of time left for Chump to cause chaos. The slow motion train wreck has only just started.

BlackPeter

Quote from: Basil on Feb 05, 2025, 10:56 AMPlenty of time left for Chump to cause chaos. The slow motion train wreck has only just started.

Fair point. How do they cite Einstein? Only the universe and human stupidity is infinite, but he was not so sure about the universe. Just wondering how he knew at that stage already about the current white house dweller?