SKT - Sky Network Television

Started by Plata, Jun 11, 2022, 10:26 PM

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Cod

SKT slowly digging itself out of the hole it dug for itself after the Mediaworks debacle, a long way back to the Halcion days of 293, been in since 2018, now finally we might get some money out of the board, as they seem to be boxed into a corner.

WarrenBuffet

Quote from: Arbroath on Jun 25, 2022, 08:23 AMSky is still worth $3.50+ imho but the Sky board have done shareholders no favours by lowering the price of their own stock with their foolish actions making the company more vulnerable to a $3.00 takeover.

The sooner they declare a $50-55 buyback and a healthy 15-20 cps dividend the better. You don't even need any darn consultants to sort that out!!

It should recover back to $3 over the next couple of months but can really trust these bunch of muppets with your hard earned after the latest fiasco?

The real question is weather or not to hold this long term for 'dem gainz' but bear in mind Netflix stock is currently trading on a 17 PE and WarnerBros Discovery is on 7, so is Sky really the best play from here? The good thing about stocks is you can trade in and out of positions easy.

First thing that needs to happen is Sky needs to return all the cash ASAP, otherwise the next thing you know they will end up pissing it all away in some bitcoin scam. They have a draw down facility and good cash flow. If something comes up they want to buy they can just come back to market and raise funds, that's what the market is there for!

A takeover later this year after cashback would be ideal. Business should have an EV of $500m to a serious buyer. Once global markets recover Sky should look attractive to overseas buyers with a weak NZ dollar and an easy way for them to boost growth over the coming recession.

But like I said, they are lots of bargains out there at the moment and waiting for a takeover on this stock has ruined many punters before. The takeover drum has been beating long before 2018. Could be another 5 years of madness before anything happens. Next thing you know the lease on studio one will be up and they'll be on the streets begging for cash!

LoungeLizard

Well, if OGG and MistaTea are here, I'm in. I have 150k of SKY Shares that are in the hands of that ship of fools aka the Sky Board!

WarrenBuffet

Quote from: LoungeLizard on Jun 25, 2022, 12:20 PMWell, if OGG and MistaTea are here, I'm in. I have 150k of SKY Shares that are in the hands of that ship of fools aka the Sky Board!


LoungeLizard

Down to business.

 Having shot themselves in the foot, face and groin - what are the chances that the Board will now be forced to finally do what they promised and  make a pretty substantial capital return in August (or before)?
 
If they do that, keep executing the strategy, and get Sophie to show some leg to any passing private equity firm, I think $3 is do-able even with a looming recession and bear market. At which point I would sell. I'm not convinced that a decent offer $3.50-$4.00 is something this Board would be able to negotiate and I don't have any confidence at all in them not not to stuff things up the longer they are in charge.

So, wait for capital return announcement and sell either before or after, depending on market reaction.And pray that The Board doesn't get their head turned again in the meantime.

snapiti

SKY is dead in the water......do your research and see what their competition is now, not only superior content 10 fold but 1/2 the price
never buy or sell shares driven by emotion, show conviction to your purchases

Average_Punter

Welcome back OGG  :o

I struggle to see how SKT will be relevant in the future, which is the reason I suspect it has not been taken over.  Apart from sport, what has SKT got that nobody else can deliver and keep the profit, i.e. Disney, HBO, etc.?  SKT just don't have the size and economies of scale needed to survive against the big players, plus they have an incompetent board that just wants to blow shareholders money to justify their existence.... 

NZRFU will inevitably take over streaming rugby (especially with silverlake now part of the picture), and that will be the end of SKT. 

ps  I was a SKT shareholder for 18 months but bailed out two days after their announcement that they were interested in buying that incredibly profitable and fantastic business called NZME....   >:( 

WarrenBuffet

#22
Quote from: LoungeLizard on Jun 25, 2022, 01:06 PMDown to business.

 Having shot themselves in the foot, face and groin - what are the chances that the Board will now be forced to finally do what they promised and  make a pretty substantial capital return in August (or before)?
 
If they do that, keep executing the strategy, and get Sophie to show some leg to any passing private equity firm, I think $3 is do-able even with a looming recession and bear market. At which point I would sell. I'm not convinced that a decent offer $3.50-$4.00 is something this Board would be able to negotiate and I don't have any confidence at all in them not not to stuff things up the longer they are in charge.

So, wait for capital return announcement and sell either before or after, depending on market reaction.And pray that The Board doesn't get their head turned again in the meantime.


Dunno what's taking them so long. Apparently you need a team of consultants and months of time to setup the bank transfer details so you wire the funds back to shareholders. In the meantime the money has lost 10% in value due to inflation.





WarrenBuffet

Quote from: snapiti on Jun 25, 2022, 01:38 PMSKY is dead in the water......do your research and see what their competition is now, not only superior content 10 fold but 1/2 the price

It's not dead. If anything competition is less now. Spark Sport is dead.

Content is mediocre but enough to satisfy most consumers.

Long term there's a small risk that Amazon or Apple or similar buy rugby rights. Wouldn't be the end of the world but dem gainz will be much less as the company will shrink revenue wise but costs largely remain the same even taking into account rugby costs upfront. NZRU won't be taking script next time.


nztx



Ogg .. good to see you mate :)

Hope your SKT holiday was good & restful..

Now to encourage the SKT Board to engage on doing the right thing ;)

snapiti

WB I think you need to dig deeper into the new entrance into the market......got all the rugby and cricket and so much more........totally legit as well......Sky is most certainly dead in the water
never buy or sell shares driven by emotion, show conviction to your purchases

LoungeLizard

Not in any way defending SKY here - or maybe I am - but comparing them to Netflix or Disney is not straightforward. Sky is a jack-of-all-trades offering movies, shows, news and sport across multiple platforms, plus they are trying to diversify into broadband and possibly mobile. For some people, particularly those wanting sport,  the one stop shop is better than having 2, 3 or even 4 streaming services that just offer movies and shows (with a lot of overlap) and nothing else. Netflix is now $17 per month in HD, so multiple services is going to add up.
Sky have a good niche and it is now profitable and cash-flow positive with no debt and plenty of funds left even after a special dividend/ buyback. Its EPS is over 20c so they could easily return to regular dividends and build up a war-chest to continue to retain/expand content.

That's the good stuff. The main problem, as pointed out, is scale. They are small fish in a global pond and if the big players move in they won't be able to compete. And they don't have a Board that is nimble or astute enough to negotiate the minefield. The cleanest and safest route is to sell to the bigger players and/or merge with a good telco and continue to diversify whilst reducing costs (which they have been doing quite well). I'd much prefer a clean-break but I'm not hopeful of this Board being able to attract a good offer in excess of $3.50 per share.
Failing all of that then continue to execute a strategy that prior to the MW fiasco and financial downturn was getting close to $3 on it's own. Oh, and sack Pooman, the awol Chairman of the Board.

WarrenBuffet

Quote from: Average_Punter on Jun 25, 2022, 02:00 PMWelcome back OGG  :o

I struggle to see how SKT will be relevant in the future, which is the reason I suspect it has not been taken over.  Apart from sport, what has SKT got that nobody else can deliver and keep the profit, i.e. Disney, HBO, etc.?  SKT just don't have the size and economies of scale needed to survive against the big players, plus they have an incompetent board that just wants to blow shareholders money to justify their existence.... 

NZRFU will inevitably take over streaming rugby (especially with silverlake now part of the picture), and that will be the end of SKT. 

ps  I was a SKT shareholder for 18 months but bailed out two days after their announcement that they were interested in buying that incredibly profitable and fantastic business called NZME....  >:( 

The silverlake deal is interesting. What their intentions are long term is a bit of a mystery. It does look like they want to take away the rugby rights from Sky and move it to another partner. I suspect that won't happen anytime soon as the public will fight against that. Just look at the low cricket viewership numbers on Spark Sport. People are saying that has killed cricket as viewership numbers have dropped heaps. It's killing the game!

I actually thought that Sky would be investing into the new entity and taking an equity stake. That's why I thought they were holding onto the cash for. It seems like it's the opposite and NZRU now don't want them. Who would blame them either after they were thrown under the bus in the death placement.

You would think that eventually the rugby rights will go to a streaming platform. AKA it will turn into Pay Per View. Not good for fans but good for the industry. I suspect that will likely happen after the next right of renewal, so more like 2030. Seems like silverlake are in it for the long term and will wait it out. I think Sky will renew in 2025 but it will costs heaps! Again, another crippling event that will reduce 'dem gainz'.

This is where the new set top box from Sky will come into play. If they can execute that well and roll out a decent box maybe they can hold onto their place in the market. Maybe they can get a slice of the silverlake deal through that and basically aggerate the rugby through their and clip the ticket.

As the end of the day, Rugby isn't the only thing on TV. There's decent content on Sky. By decent I mean if you are 40+ and like Jones TV and History channel.

But yeah, can the board manage to steer the ship over the next few years! Difficult for anyone really, more so for the incumbents.


WarrenBuffet

Quote from: LoungeLizard on Jun 25, 2022, 02:50 PMNot in any way defending SKY here - or maybe I am - but comparing them to Netflix or Disney is not straightforward. Sky is a jack-of-all-trades offering movies, shows, news and sport across multiple platforms, plus they are trying to diversify into broadband and possibly mobile. For some people, particularly those wanting sport,  the one stop shop is better than having 2, 3 or even 4 streaming services that just offer movies and shows (with a lot of overlap) and nothing else. Netflix is now $17 per month in HD, so multiple services is going to add up.
Sky have a good niche and it is now profitable and cash-flow positive with no debt and plenty of funds left even after a special dividend/ buyback. Its EPS is over 20c so they could easily return to regular dividends and build up a war-chest to continue to retain/expand content.

That's the good stuff. The main problem, as pointed out, is scale. They are small fish in a global pond and if the big players move in they won't be able to compete. And they don't have a Board that is nimble or astute enough to negotiate the minefield. The cleanest and safest route is to sell to the bigger players and/or merge with a good telco and continue to diversify whilst reducing costs (which they have been doing quite well). I'd much prefer a clean-break but I'm not hopeful of this Board being able to attract a good offer in excess of $3.50 per share.
Failing all of that then continue to execute a strategy that prior to the MW fiasco and financial downturn was getting close to $3 on it's own. Oh, and sack Pooman, the awol Chairman of the Board.


Decent summary




I don't have much faith in the telco idea. Might appeal to comcast. I think that's what the Media Works angle was about. There was merit in the idea of merging media assets (be they radio, billboard) into one and the selling that as a package to Comcast.

2 Degrees seems like they are busy at the moment with their new merger. They won't be interested in a merger now. Vodafone is being bleed to death by private equity. They're probably more interesting in flogging it off to retail. Spark would be block from buying Sky. There's no one else left.


WarrenBuffet

Quote from: nztx on Jun 25, 2022, 02:45 PMOgg .. good to see you mate :)

Hope your SKT holiday was good & restful..

Now to encourage the SKT Board to engage on doing the right thing ;)

Who's this Ogg person?