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Started by Waltzing, Feb 02, 2023, 02:17 PM

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Waltzing

ANZ sprinting out of the gates ..... bit of a trade here ,,, cant be sustained or can it?

The last deal cant have been that good in AUS or is it the new scheme of arrangement that frees the company up and will other banks soon follow.

what are the regulatory framework implications and could it allow NZ to be spun off more easily.

After all the CAP T1 proposed by the RBNZ must look punitive.


Waltzing

#1
waiting for  sun corp CEO to come on and Waz Lyrical..

suncorp thinks it can keep up the DIV under ANZ ownership...



Waltzing

#2
Starting to believe that the state of NZ transaction management systems are in a negligent state and that the bodies tasked with creating standards for them are failing to create any standards at all.

Hellen Dervans paper on banking insurance while it did not state any mathmatical models her paper has given momentum to the process where by an investigation and Royal commission should be started into the state of the transaction processing systems of the banking system and stock broking and finance companies.

With huge vol of transctions flowing through the back end databases and no way to identify the transactions and verify them the system is wide open to systemic failure.

This is the thesis of Helen Dervans prize winning macro prodential paper that the law society of australia awarded her.

We need to look no farther than the fact your cant verify a transaction in your bank account nor can you reconcile a transaction ledger from a broking site to realise once you reach a certain level of transaction investing you need to create your own verification offline solutions.

And that is where believe it or not block chain technologies provide  model for proof of work.

Not say that block chain will be that tecnology but you as the vulnerable retail investor really cant trust your financial and legal advisors to protect your money.

And that is the sad state of the so called professionals and this Hellen Dervan is stating and they even gave her a prize for it.

The legal and financial advisory professionals are basically charging you large fees for nothing much.

Notice in your OMC accounts you cant verify the transactions? a Decade ago under ANZ or the orginal owner the stock market order no at least was on the transactions but no transaction Identification or GUIDS.

Notice your receipts and deposits have no idenitifaction information in the transaction. NO IDENTIFICATION. What are the IT people thinking and why arnt the Accounting Society and FMA jumping on transaction verification or is it that AML is just a way of them making more money from you the investor.

You decide if your professionala are indeed professionals.


Waltzing

"CDO's are slowing in the states which indicates some areas of the high yield markets are under stress ."

accordig to comentators but not tending towards a GFC scale...

thank goddness for that... here hoping...The market at the moment is based on HOPE ?




Waltzing


Waltzing

Big GOVT bond offer this week of 3 Billion...

interesting to watch.. and of course Interest.co.nz


Waltzing

#6
More scares in Banking and maybe also more crypto trouble to come.


https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/10/first-republic-leads-regional-bank-rout-as-silicon-valley-bank-crisis-raises-fears-about-bond-losses.html

The balance sheet is Treasurys which means no contagion.

However a lot of people will be waiting for deposit insurance to kick in.

https://www.usbank.com/bank-accounts/fdic-deposit-insurance-coverage.html


Ferg

Quote from: Waltzing on Mar 11, 2023, 06:46 AMHowever a lot of people will be waiting for deposit insurance to kick in.

As you say people will be waiting for deposit insurance to kick but it has a cap of US$250k.  I wonder how many start ups or tech companies have their funds with SVB....?  Insurance won't help them  - one hopes start ups had credit risk mitigation strategies and did not put all their funds in the one bank.  It sounds like there were massive inflows into other banks as deposits fled SVB.

Basil

#8
https://announcements.nzx.com/detail/407458
Extract from 28/02/2023 announcement   Heartland Bank Limited (Heartland Bank) is considering making an offer of up to $75 million (with the right to accept oversubscriptions of up to an additional $50 million at Heartland Bank's discretion) of unsecured subordinated notes (Notes) to New Zealand investors and certain overseas institutional investors.
We've heard nothing further about this since then but I can't help myself wondering what the demand would be for this proposed new issue at this point in time?

Interesting article https://www.marketindex.com.au/news/tailwinds-are-all-blown-out-for-australias-big-four-banks-says-morgan?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Saturday+11+March+2023

Waltzing

Yes very interesting what shakes out in markets when interest rate rise...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-Term_Capital_Management

perhaps rereading "More money than God".. one of the best reads on the GFC.

the fall out is often bigger than it looks and spreads.

Waltzing


Onemootpoint

Quote from: Basil on Mar 11, 2023, 12:24 PMInteresting article https://www.marketindex.com.au/news/tailwinds-are-all-blown-out-for-australias-big-four-banks-says-morgan?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Saturday+11+March+2023

Yes, read that. I think to be expected; these banks have sort traded in a certain (wide) range for the past 20 odd years (good for trading or short to medium term investments) and with the current financial and economic status the world endures, tailwinds will dwindle for the time being.

But I suspect this was 'researched'/ written (although published Saturday) before taking into the account what is happening right now with Silvergate and more specifically Silicon Valley Bank.

Perhaps nervous times for those invested in banking sticks, at least for the short term.

Waltzing

yes the banks are back to being a trade but there will be some number crunching required for the sun corp deal and the nature of the new entity for ANZ.

west pac has collapsed into a total .....

fall out from SVB also effects rock labs it appears in this morning news...

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/rocket-lab-says-it-has-us38m-with-failed-silicon-valley-bank/G4VLALMYAJAHXA3QNSD5OCRN3Y/

Waltzing

#13
To big to fail...  bail out back stop for deposits...

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/12/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

Looks like a whole lot more work needs to be done in banking regulation and maybe the limits of the QE model have been reached....

OOPS...


Waltzing

10 Yr just plunged off the cliff...

fed just broke something and probably realised there are other ledgers and loan books out there that are unaudited and risk assessed...

rating agencies...

and here we are again...

it wont be as big of course but do we know where all the dead bodies are ....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FhfvtOSd5fU