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Briscoe Group BGP

Started by winner (n), Nov 03, 2022, 09:50 AM

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winner (n)

Pretty sad looking chart

Share price not far away from pre-covid times

You'll have to look it up yourself as screen shot produces a file TOO BIG to attach

Hectorplains

#16
Back to where it was in Dec 2020 - but since Jan 2020 BGP has gone up and now come down a mountain.

Trailing PE now of 12. Maybe, you'll never buy better?

Basil

Interesting chart.  My theory:- Briscoes did exceptionally well as a seller of homewares when people were "nesting" with Covid lockdowns, analogous in many ways to how Noel Leeming performed.
As expected, most people who have spent a lot on nesting since Covid started are now far more interested in getting out and enjoying themselves.  This would help Rebel Sport but is may be hurting Briscoes quite a bit.
That said year to date sales when last announced were not too shabby at all.
Maybe the share price slide is just the shares coming back down to earth and they're now about fair value ?

Waltzing

#18
" now about fair value"

 hope so....


Capt_Hook

Your usual garbage ! they will thrive.

Fiordland Moose

Interesting Jard report.

Spot valuation of 4.68, 12month target 4.90.

FY23 EPS forecast of 39.6, falling to 32.1 in FY24 (19% fall), then up 4.4% year after to 33.6.

DPS remains consistent with FY22 and doesn't fall, resulting in 7.8% gross or 5.6% net yield.

Be interesting to see how things pan out - a decent fall sounds right but is 20% enough.

What was more interesting to me is why Jarden bothered with a report at all - they usual reserve them for fee paying clients. BGR doesn't raise equity, issue debt, etc. Which made me wonder if they were positioning themselves for a role for when the big man steps down.  Complete speculation.

Waltzing

well FF the balance sheet is strong and 5.6 net means it is fair value here if inflation taps down.

has jardens done some modelling based on what? a lot of the stuff sold is made in china and doesnt have a long life...

The hobbs life expectancy isnt great ...

 

winner (n)

Rod said after Q3 sales " As we commence this year's crucial 4th quarter, we remain optimistic of producing a full year net profit after tax (NPAT) ahead of last year's $87.91 million, however this will depend on economic conditions and how buoyant trading is across this critical final period."

Hope his optimistic view happens (or he's under promised and going to over deliver) because if npat comes in under $88m the market might not be too happy/impressed

Fiordland Moose

Quote from: winner (n) on Jan 25, 2023, 03:48 PMRod said after Q3 sales " As we commence this year's crucial 4th quarter, we remain optimistic of producing a full year net profit after tax (NPAT) ahead of last year's $87.91 million, however this will depend on economic conditions and how buoyant trading is across this critical final period."

Hope his optimistic view happens (or he's under promised and going to over deliver) because if npat comes in under $88m the market might not be too happy/impressed

aye I thought that was rather bold guidance from him which he started issuing at the Q1 sales update ! He has stuck to it since and had a few interviews in the last week and hasn't let anything on so it would be a bad look indeed.

Waltzing

Last cash flow statement showed an increase in cash on hand and if they have gone negative in comparatives they will still have enougn to maintain the DIV going forward..

they will have to fallen off a clif to drop EPS 20 ...

maybe the retail shopper has put the cash away being scared SHL

when the cost of fuel goes up then maybe and that's what JD's are forecasting.

Fiordland Moose

#25
Aye they had a lot of inventory on hand at the end of FY22 to account for shipping delays. You'd expect and/or hope they'd manage that down as trade lanes open up again and blue ocean delivery days fall. But you never know what assumptions mgmt feed into their purchasing models.

One small trick of the trade - ever notice how many savy retailers have their end of financial year on 31 January (or close to it ) and half year in July?  Because those are the exact low points in their inventory cycles, which as a happy coincidence convinces investors that NWC as a % of sales is super low or even negative.  Indeed, for many retailers it is actually really low as you can achieve terms where your suppliers more often than not fund your purchases. 

Makes a lot of sense from an accounting perspective...no point having it on 31 dec and having a large and inaccurate provision on what sales you need to clear inventory - may as well wait a month to clear the backlog.  Same with winter sales.

trade / professional /PE investors would normally value a retailer by looking at the average intra year working capital requirements and the change from year to year. Movements from 31 jan to 31 jan would almost never do justice to the working capital requirements of a retailer which will almost always overstate the maintainable cashflows of the company.

Waltzing

#26
yes FF  "end of year balance dates" good point.... must build stock turn into the smart chart event models..

 this is the sort of chart you want to see. ASX LOV... winners EBO is a sounder company though... if HLG perform its shares could hens teeth.... broker at FBAR has been saying it for years but they also though both carpet companies where blue chip as well....right



winner (n)

Rod said he's hoping full year npat will exceed last years $87.9m

Update next week (maybe even Friday)

The way the BGP share price been increasing of lately you'd have to think they'll smash that $87.9m .....maybe even $90m/$95m

Waltzing

to much .... cant wait....

Left Field

#29
Update just out.....

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/406251

Highlights:
• Record full-year (52 weeks) Group sales $785.9 million, +5.56%
• Full year Homeware sales growth, +5.77%
• Full year Sporting goods sales growth, +5.22%
• Full year Online sales as mix of total Group sales, 18.97%
• Expected record full-year net profit after tax (NPAT) not less than $88 million
• Announcement of full year results including final dividend - 15 March 2023

I guess holders will be happy!? (puts WHS to shame.)
"The difficulty lies not in new ideas... but in escaping from old ideas." (J M Keynes.)