HLG - Hallenstein Glassons Holdings

Started by winner (n), Oct 03, 2022, 01:26 PM

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Basil

#1380
Quote from: winner (n) on Feb 04, 2025, 09:41 AMProbably get an update from HLG in next week or two ...with profit guidance for first half

ABS report clothing sales in December were 5% ahead of last year ...add Glassons share gains to that and its looking good

Expect good news and HLG share price over 9 bucks by end of month.
You've got a very good track record with price predictions with this one.
Trading on only 12 times FY 25 earnings with a 5 year CAGR of 9% in eps and a huge runway for growth in Australia, (5 year CAGR in sales 21% and eps 29% with Glassons Au), it's a very high conviction hold for me. 17% portfolio allocation, my biggest equal with Turners.

Waltzing


Playa

Quote from: Basil on Feb 04, 2025, 10:16 AMYou've got a very good track record with price predictions with this one.
Trading on only 12 times FY 25 earnings with a 5 year CAGR of 9% in eps and a huge runway for growth in Australia, (5 year CAGR in sales 21% and eps 29% with Glassons Au), it's a very high conviction hold for me. 17% portfolio allocation, my biggest equal with Turners.
I am thinking of topping up, my only concern is the weak NZ $ and how it could affect things.Your thoughts on this Basil please?

Basil

#1383
Hey Playa. There was some good discussion a while back on FX risk management and their headging policies. I expect some modest degree of margin compression in FY 26 more than offset by a gradual economic recovery on both sides of the Tasman and ongoing store expansion.  Beyound that in FY27 and further out its anyone's guess what FX will be but HLG have a well proven track record and management are hugely experienced with managing those risks. I topped up with a few more at $8.47 recently.

BlackPeter

OK, it is a great company and amazing what money they make by selling cheap South East Asian made rags in competition with temu, Mountain Warehouse and Shein. On the other hand - they used to by cyclical, and the Bollinger bands look sort of ominous. Yes, I know, we only know for sure after the event, but I found so far no method to sell at last months prices ... unless, obviously the price went up since then.

I was wondering, whether to give in to greed or caution and did set a really high sell target. Somebody took my parcel today at peak level from my hands.

Question is - will I  ;D or  :'( come Monday? Anyway, it was a nice ride ....

Basil

#1385
The trend is your friend for holders.
Quadruplling of Glassons Au sales since James Glasson took over is incredible.
You are right that they used to be a cyclical company and there's no growth in N.Z operations but Glassons Au has been really transformative for HLG in a similar way to how Tina has been transformative for Turners and sales of  Glassons Aui will exceed all other divisions combined in FY25 and it's onwards and upwards from there.

Monday is not the issue for you as I see it. Look back in a few years and you'll see what you've missed mate. Huge divvy due in April which you will miss.  Selling in a confirmed uptrend is usually a very bad idea. Good luck finding a more compelling N.Z share.

Basil

Hit a fresh all time high yesterday of $8.55. KW is quite right that you should never sell stocks in a strong uptrend.

Looking forward to strong first half guidance likely to be announced in the next week or thereabouts and a huge dividend in April.

BlackPeter

Quote from: Basil on Feb 07, 2025, 06:34 PMThe trend is your friend for holders.
Quadruplling of Glassons Au sales since James Glasson took over is incredible.
You are right that they used to be a cyclical company and there's no growth in N.Z operations but Glassons Au has been really transformative for HLG in a similar way to how Tina has been transformative for Turners and sales of  Glassons Aui will exceed all other divisions combined in FY25 and it's onwards and upwards from there.

Monday is not the issue for you as I see it. Look back in a few years and you'll see what you've missed mate. Huge divvy due in April which you will miss.  Selling in a confirmed uptrend is usually a very bad idea. Good luck finding a more compelling N.Z share.

Interesting - and I guess we both don't know the future. I like to compare the current situation with the 1930'íes - a bunch of lawless autocrats first isolating their respective countries and subsequently starting to kill each other.

While actually the share indices didn't change that much, individual stocks tended to rapid cycle (a function of the high uncertainty). Does this sound familiar? I guess nobody knows (probably not even himself) which tariffs president Dump is charging next week, and which country he wants to bully next by threatening to take their territory.

Pretty much like pre WW II (just that Hitler played at that stage Dumps role). While at that stage stocks went all over the place, I doubt, that any rug trader selling cheap but sort of fancy looking Bangladeshi, Indian and Chinese goods was in a constant uptrend. So - sure, I might lose another dollar in the SP, but not too concerned that I've lost a lot compared to a few years to come.

Must be time for a wartime portfolio ... I am accumulating stuff you need for a wartime economy: Weapons (and all you need to produce and equip them - steel, chemistry) , rugged equipment, trucks, farm bikes, agricultureal supplies, steel, food, quality outdoor gear, blankets and similar. Good to watch Palestine and Ukraine - if they could need it, it probably will be a seller during Dumps one thousand years of reign. Just remember - Hitlers 1000 years took just a dozen, and Dumps 1000 years (I hear he started talking about an unconstitutional third term) - who knows, but certainly not thousand cycles of planet earth around the sun.

So - not too worried I will miss out too much, but I am sure, KW and you will manage as well to get out when the music stops. Just remember the narrow exit - liquidity is terrible, and I recon there might be others who want to leave at the same time. Good examples in India to learn from how terrible stampedes can end.

Basil

Hey BP,
I appreciate your grasp of history but I am not sure young people who want to look cool in HLG gear care in the slightest.

Very good history of Glassons Au sales steadily gaining market share. Probably up to 1% this year from about 0.3% when James Glasson took over in 2017. Has a VERY long runway of growth in Australia to get to the same 5% as here. I expect sales in Glassons Au to top $250m this year and grow to cica $500m by 2030.

Another new all time high today. $12 to $13 wouldn't surprise me at all sometime late next year.

winner (n)

Yep ATH today ...hit $8.75 intraday

That's good