SUM Summerset Group

[winner (n)]

Every credible share related forum need a Summerset thread so here goes.

SUM share price been beaten up like the others in the retirement sector .... but lately a glimmer of hope that things are on the improve.

June quarter sales update in next day of two. Reaction to the numbers will set the future direction of the share price.

Anything above 300 sales will be a more than solid result.

I'll be watching resale numbers. These have been a bit weak over the last year or so.

[Shareguy]

Yes looking forward to the update.  I think it's going to be good. Sum has the best growth in the last few years and is favoured over Ryman by some of the brokers and institutional buyers.

[Whacc]

Will be very interesting.

A lot of hype in the last 2 years surrounding SUM has been borne out of its ILU sales.
Obviously this has a higher correlation to the housing market.

Intriguing to see if this housing market beta drags down this quarter's sale volumes.
Easy to look like a hero when the tide is in.

[winner (n)]

Be interesting to see how the chart looks next week with another quarters numberYou cannot view this attachment.

[BlackPeter]

I prefer the rolling 4 quarters view, takes a bit of noise out of the trend:

You cannot view this attachment.

But yes - what do you recon? Property prices going down, properties for sale going up while sales going down - i.e. not sure I expect much improvement this (or next) quarter.

[winner (n)]

BP....we doing things the same way lol ...rolling quarters and all that

Except you have included a Total line which changes the axis and makes your lines look less 'noisy' but in reality as 'noisy' as the lines in my chart but then one could say my smoothed lines are less noisy than your straight lines which joins the dots.

'Noise' an interesting concept - somebody once said "the wise man listens to the meaning; the fool only gets the noise."

[BlackPeter]

BP....we doing things the same way lol ...rolling quarters and all that

Except you have included a Total line which changes the axis and makes your lines look less 'noisy' but in reality as 'noisy' as the lines in my chart but then one could say my smoothed lines are less noisy than your straight lines which joins the dots.

'Noise' an interesting concept - somebody once said "the wise man listens to the meaning; the fool only gets the noise."

Fair enough ... you are right re the trendlines - just a matter of scale.

"Noise" was used as in "signal to noise" ... but probably just showing off my engineering background.

Maybe just appropriate retaliation for all the beancounting terms floating around in these places .

[winner (n)]

Fair enough ... you are right re the trendlines - just a matter of scale.

"Noise" was used as in "signal to noise" ... but probably just showing off my engineering background.

Maybe just appropriate retaliation for all the beancounting terms floating around in these places .

And in broker lingo 'colour' is very important ........especially when they holistically re-engineer intuitive value

See I there is a commonality between finance and engineering ...you'll be ok

[Basil]

For what its worth I am looking forward to owning SUM again when the time is right.
I believe its very well managed with tight cost disciplines and its business model is most fit for purpose in terms of rewarding shareholders. 

Possibly worth noting that Scott Scoullar is the most experienced and has the best proven track record of any of the current CEO's in the retirement village sector and being a numbers man, learned a lot from the disciplines his predecessor Julian Cook initiated.

Also worth noting is their units are generally priced on a like for like basis a fair way south of where RYM positions itself so the affordability should still be there in a real estate downturn.

Finally its common knowledge that the care side of all in this sector is doing it extremely tough in terms of its profitability due to deliberate underfunding (a form of taxation), by this Government and SUM have the least exposure to care and the lowest level of debt so are best placed to weather this storm. 

Unfortunately no matter how skilled the captain or how few leaks there are in the ship all boats go lower on an outgoing tide so until the confirmed downturn is over I am happy to remain on the sidelines.  I'm waiting for a confirmed break up through the 200 day moving average in due course and then I'll back the truck up on this and nothing else in this sector.  I'm not expecting the tide to change anytime soon.

[Basil]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SUM/395128/374416.pdf

New and resales this quarter are well down on last year.  (232 v 270 in PCP)  As per comment above, this is a great company but the tide is going out on this sector.

[winner (n)]

June quarter sales a disaster - I was forecasting / guessing / hoping for >300 --- turns out a miserable 232

But at least Mr Scoullar says Summerset has now achieved 511 sales for 1H22, the second highest first half ever .... so that's pretty good

Won't post the updated chart because that's how the share price will go this week. No doubt BP will and point out a downtrend in sales numbers is now in place

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SUM/395128/374416.pdf

[winner (n)]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SUM/395128/374416.pdf

New and resales this quarter are well down on last year.  (232 v 270 in PCP)  As per comment above, this is a great company but the tide is going out on this sector.

H1 sales down 6% on last year means Underlying Earnings will be down .....unless a huge pickup in margins which is unlikely ..... Underlying Earnings = Number sales x Average Sale Price x Margin +/- a few million from  day to day operations

[Shareguy]

Agree, will be interesting to see how the share price reacts.

[Basil]

Agree, will be interesting to see how the share price reacts.

Especially after a 6.6% run-up (vs NZX50 up 3.9%) last week.

Another point to ponder, if best of breed is doing it tough how are others in this sector going ?

[Shareguy]

Yes that is what I'm thinking. OCR this week.  Might be a bad one for retirement stocks. Sum back under $10