PEB-Pacific Edge

[Left Field]

My in box today...... (slowly, slowly)

"Pacific Edge today announces it has reached more than 50% enrolment in its study to demonstrate the clinical utility of its advanced genomic biomarker Cxbladder tests in safely stratifying low-risk patients presenting with blood in urine (hematuria).

The Safe Testing of Risk for Asymptomatic Microhematuria (STRATA) study aims to further demonstrate how Cxbladder can safely risk stratify patients presenting with hematuria into those that may receive a less-intense evaluation for the presence of bladder cancer and those that should continue with a standard evaluation.

The clinical utility evidence generated by the STRATA study is expected to strengthen the case for incorporation of Cxbladder tests into the American Urological Association (AUA) guidelines and to promote more-inclusive language for the recommendation of the test, leading to increased adoption of the test into standard of care.

Cxbladder is a suite of advanced genomic biomarker diagnostic tests that are supported by a significant body of peer-reviewed clinical evidence.

In addition to helping clinicians safely de-intensify or intensify the clinical workup for patients presenting with hematuria, the tests can help resolve diagnostic dilemmas during evaluation (e.g., equivocal cystoscopy and atypical urine cytology) and monitor for the recurrence of urothelial cancer in post-treatment patients, reducing the frequency of cystoscopy required in suitable cases. Globally, more than 2,000 urologists have used Cxbladder tests to detect and monitor urothelial cancers in over 80,000 patients........"

[Shareguy]

If the future is so bright, why hasn't the new ceo brought any shares himself?

Will we find out that old ceo has been slowly selling his?

Why did the old ceo not stay on the board?

Does the old ceo have to disclose?

[Left Field]

Shareguy, the new CEO has a lot of performance related incentives to be working hard. Early days.

As for DD.....my memory is that he stuck around for an orderly transition.... and his deck is well and truly finished.

I'm content to wait till the next performance update and judge on facts - not conspiracy theories.

That said IMHO it's a risky share and not for the faint hearted or short term traders.

[Shareguy]

13 percent growth, not exactly on fire.

Thoughts?

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/395606

[Left Field]

PACIFIC EDGE INVESTOR UPDATE - Q1 FY23 TEST VOLUMES RISE 32% ON Q1 FY22

DUNEDIN, New Zealand -- Cancer diagnostics company Pacific Edge (NZX, ASX:
PEB) today announces continuing strong growth in volumes through its
laboratories of its market-leading genomic biomarker Cxbladder tests.

In the three months to the end of June 2022 Pacific Edge processed 7,055
tests up 13% on the 6,242 tests in the three months to the end of March 2022.
The June 2022 figure also represents a 32% increase on the 5,356 tests
processed in the same quarter of the prior financial year.


Encouraging...... but not exciting....... yet.

[BlackPeter]

13 percent growth, not exactly on fire.

Thoughts?

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/395606

Well, they never did set the world on fire, didn't they? ... and now they are just continuing with this well entrenched and over more than  a decade rehearsed trait.

No doubt they will continue as long as there are shareholders around happy enough to feed them and finance their decks.

[winner (n)]

C'mon BP, you sound a bit down and out today with your posts. Cheer up

What's not to like about this chart --- CAGR of 54% is pretty amazing


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[BlackPeter]

C'mon BP, you sound a bit down and out today with your posts. Cheer up

What's not to like about this chart --- CAGR of 54% is pretty amazing


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Come on, winner - you know better, don't you?

I guess if you would talk about earnings CAGR starting from a strong base, I could understand your excitement.

Unfortunately it is not.

It is their number of tests over the last two years, starting in the middle of the Covid pendemic, where bladder cancer was the last of anybody's worries.

They must have had similar numbers of tests already 10 years ago? Would have been difficult to achieve less growth, if you start at the absolute downpoint, isn't it?

Didn't one of their board members talk more than a decade ago talk about "hundreds of thousands of tests"? Stupid shareholders thinking at that stage about tests per quarter or similar - what he meant was the sum of all test accumulated over more than a decade ...

But hey - isn't it great to see that this company still manages to attract people happy to fund them ... clearly increasing the number of work opportunities in Dunedin ... and you are right ... maybe this is (after arriving the end of an excrutiating  long and bumpy runway) the final takeoff. Could be ... and lets all cross fingers. Whether it works, though, we don't really know, don't we?

[Left Field]

I liked this part of the update...

"These figures show the company has delivered a compound annual growth in test volumes since 2021 of 54%."

Market seems to believe it, so that's good (well, so far.....)

[BlackPeter]

I liked this part of the update...

"These figures show the company has delivered a compound annual growth in test volumes since 2021 of 54%."

Market seems to believe it, so that's good (well, so far.....)

Something just sounds wrong when anybody uses in 2022 the phrase "compound annual growth since 2021"
 ...

But hey - I am probably just picky. If the markets like it, it clearly must be good (for now). Love the hype curve.

[winner (n)]

Something just sounds wrong when anybody uses in 2022 the phrase "compound annual growth since 2021"
 ...

But hey - I am probably just picky. If the markets like it, it clearly must be good (for now). Love the hype curve.

Would have sounded better if they said 136% growth from 2 years ago

[Pierre]

Would have sounded better if they said 136% growth from 2 years ago

The growth in the number of tests is positive news as is the growth in the number of clinicians using them. Both are off a low base of course but they are heading in the right direction.

Even more positive is the transparency around the numbers and the fact they will be reported on a quarterly basis from now on.

[Left Field]

And more good news....

"DUNEDIN, New Zealand – Cancer diagnostics company Pacific Edge (NZX, ASX: PEB) today announces it has substantially completed a commercial agreement with the Southern District Health Region (SDHR) for the use of its non-invasive Cxbladder genomic biomarker tests.

The SDHR, which under the new Te Whatu Ora, Health New Zealand, has assumed administrative healthcare responsibility for 326,000 people across Otago and Southland, will deploy Cxbladder Triage into the primary care setting. Deploying into primary care follows the clinical practice model for hematuria evaluation (blood in the urine) established in the Canterbury health region. This deployment model provides care to the greatest number of patients and offers clinically actionable information at the earliest point in the patient care pathway.

The agreement with SDHR will mean that 15 of New Zealand's 20 administrative health regions, which together cover more than 75% of the country's population, will now have access to the test via public healthcare. Under the primary care model, General Practitioners will be able to order Cxbladder Triage to help safely de-intensify clinical workup for patients presenting with hematuria. In many cases this will reduce the need for secondary referral and an invasive cystoscopy."

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/395682

Always on the cards IMO, but still nice to see.

I'm getting the feeling that this new CEO is going to achieve great things for this company. Doing the mahi.

As Pierre notes the improved reporting and quarterly updates are a sign of confidence.

[LoungeLizard]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/129339375/after-two-decades-is-pacific-edge-turning-the-corner

[Shareguy]

Craig's latest Target price $.66

Use of Cxbladder as a 'top of funnel' test in NZ expanded
PEB has "substantially completed" an agreement with the Southern District Health Region (SDHR) to deploy PEB's Cxbladder Triage bladder cancer test for use by its GPs on patients presenting with hematuria (blood in the urine, the #1 bladder cancer symptom). Likely following the model established in Canterbury, SDHR patients presenting to their GP with hematuria could be tested with Triage & imaging. If results are; a) positive, they would be referred to a urologist to receive an invasive cystoscopy or b) negative, they would be managed by their GP. Clearly, the expansion of Cxbladder as a top of funnel test in NZ suggests it is proving effective for this use case. The NZ model where Cxbladder is used as a top of funnel test prior to deciding whether to administer a cystoscopy, is quite different to the current US model where urologists order a Cxbladder test in conjunction with a cystoscopy.
Expansion to primary care in the US could double the TAM...
The TAM for Cxbladder in NZ is small at c.$5m, and we estimate the direct financial upside from the potential SDHR deal at just c.$150k/yr. The more interesting questions are 1) whether the adoption of Cxbladder as a top of funnel test in primary care in NZ foreshadows similar adoption in the United States and 2) the implications for the TAM. Expanding the use case for Cxbladder to primary care in the United States would double the size of our TAM estimate from c.$3bn to c.$6bn. This reflects that while 3.4m hematuria patients require a urologist test workup per year (from which we estimate our $3bn TAM), around 7m present with hematuria (to GPs or urologists). Moreover, if Triage is adopted as a top of funnel test, there is potential for PEB's penetration of the TAM to be higher than our current 15% estimate.
...but more evidence is needed
Unfortunately, the SDHR agreement is unlikely to push the US towards usage of Cxbladder Triage as a top of funnel test anytime soon. We note that the public healthcare system in the much larger Canterbury region has been using Cxbladder in this manner since 2018, and this appears to have had no influence on US workflows to date. To see Triage adopted as a top of funnel test will first require demonstration of improved patient outcomes in upcoming US clinical trials. The nearest of these is the STRATA study, with full data collection targeted for 1Q23 and publication targeted for CY23. If this passes muster we still see the economics of marketing Cxbladder to the 200k GPs in the US as a significant barrier, requiring a targeted commercial strategy. At this stage we remain watchful. Neutral maintained