PEB-Pacific Edge

[Shareguy]

Craigs have initiated research on Pacific Edge.

They don't feel the love and think another equity raise 2026.

We initiate with Neutral and $0.65/sh price target
We value PEB at $0.65/sh on our base case scenario of a revenue ramp up similar to Genomic Health, 15% market penetration by terminal forecast year (FY42), and long term EBIT margins of c.30% (above mature industry peers). With PEB shares trading in line with valuation, we initiate with a Neutral recommendation. We see upside to our valuation if adoption is faster than forecast or PEB is acquired (though our review of takeovers suggests this is unlikely before PEB achieves 10%+ penetration vs <1% currently

Commercialisation likely to cost more than widely believed
While consensus estimates for PEB's revenue growth appear achievable, our analysis of comparable companies suggests that it is likely to cost more to commercialise Cxbladder than widely believed, with only one comp (Genomic Health) ever turning a profit. We forecast cash breakeven in FY28 (two years later than consensus), with additional equity potentially needed in c.FY26.

[Left Field]

Craigs have initiated research on Pacific Edge.

They don't feel the love.

We initiate with Neutral and $0.65/sh price target
We value PEB at $0.65/sh on our base case scenario of a revenue ramp up similar to Genomic Health, 15% market penetration by terminal forecast year (FY42), and long term EBIT margins of c.30% (above mature industry peers). With PEB shares trading in line with valuation, we initiate with a Neutral recommendation. We see upside to our valuation if adoption is faster than forecast or PEB is acquired (though our review of takeovers suggests this is unlikely before PEB achieves 10%+ penetration vs <1% cur

That's cool. Their valuation is above my DCA hold level.

[winner (n)]

Forbar .... Market penetration <1%

That <1% must be wrong

[Left Field]

Crikey..... the inflection point has been reached.

"Pacific Edge today announces the appointment of David Sosa into the new role of Vice President of Market Access and Reimbursement for Pacific Edge Diagnostics USA (PEDUSA).

Mr Sosa's appointment further strengthens the PEDUSA executive suite as it seeks to accelerate the adoption of its advanced genomic biomarker Cxbladder tests as the standard of care for the suspicion of urothelial cancer in patients presenting with haematuria and in the surveillance for disease recurrence.

Mr Sosa, who joined Pacific Edge on June 27, will play a critical role in ensuring the optimal systems and processes are in place to facilitate insurance coverage, payment, test reimbursement, patient access and seamless engagement with all stakeholders in the healthcare value chain. He will have responsibility for medical policy and contracting efforts with healthcare payors to drive commercial success and operating efficiency as well as play a key role in piloting commercial strategies in the Americas.

Pacific Edge Chief Executive Dr Peter Meintjes, said: "We are delighted to welcome David to Pacific Edge at this inflection point for our growth."

[BlackPeter]

Hmm ... does this look like an inflection point to you?

I guess sure - it might bounce at the MA200 ... but than - it might not.

[winner (n)]

Oh no, not another Vice President

Bad news

How many bucks this guy getting?

[LoungeLizard]

Hmm ... does this look like an inflection point to you?

I guess sure - it might bounce at the MA200 ... but than - it might not.

I suppose they are talking about the inflection point in terms of market penetration and acceptance, rather than SP. Although the two are usually connected.

I'm still optimistic - just less so than 12 months ago - that PEB could be right in that the technology of CX Bladder could become the industry norm, along perhaps with other bio marking products. The next 12 months will be crucial to start increasing revenue and profits as another cap raise won't be as well received as the last one. 

[Cod]

I would be surprised if it bounced off the ma200, but then I am often surprised.
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[BlackPeter]

Hmm ... does this look like an inflection point to you?

I guess sure - it might bounce at the MA200 ... but than - it might not.

I suppose they are talking about the inflection point in terms of market penetration and acceptance, rather than SP. Although the two are usually connected.

I'm still optimistic - just less so than 12 months ago - that PEB could be right in that the technology of CX Bladder could become the industry norm, along perhaps with other bio marking products. The next 12 months will be crucial to start increasing revenue and profits as another cap raise won't be as well received as the last one. 

I guess it might be educational to review the PEB thread on the other forum. Start August 2005 - and there are even at that stage already references to similar bourse sucess stories. Amazing - these companies are probably around since humans learned to make money by telling others that they might make money if they give their money away.

People have been enthusiastic and optimistic over PEB for nearly two decades. For sure - the big success is just around the nexst corner. Just didn't work out so far (well, there have been some spikes and lots of valleys ...). Is it still the guy who can't tuck in his shirts running them? He certainly made a fortune with the money paid by his investors.

Don't think the fundamentals changed, but you never know with these companies - and who knows - tomorrow is another day.

My wife still tries to win the million dollar price in the lottery by investing $2 every other month or so. Same thing, similar chances of success but cheaper. Hey - and it even might work one day.

[Shareguy]

Very good BP.😂

[LoungeLizard]

Hmm ... does this look like an inflection point to you?

I guess sure - it might bounce at the MA200 ... but than - it might not.

I suppose they are talking about the inflection point in terms of market penetration and acceptance, rather than SP. Although the two are usually connected.

I'm still optimistic - just less so than 12 months ago - that PEB could be right in that the technology of CX Bladder could become the industry norm, along perhaps with other bio marking products. The next 12 months will be crucial to start increasing revenue and profits as another cap raise won't be as well received as the last one. 

I guess it might be educational to review the PEB thread on the other forum. Start August 2005 - and there are even at that stage already references to similar bourse sucess stories. Amazing - these companies are probably around since humans learned to make money by telling others that they might make money if they give their money away.

People have been enthusiastic and optimistic over PEB for nearly two decades. For sure - the big success is just around the nexst corner. Just didn't work out so far (well, there have been some spikes and lots of valleys ...). Is it still the guy who can't tuck in his shirts running them? He certainly made a fortune with the money paid by his investors.

Don't think the fundamentals changed, but you never know with these companies - and who knows - tomorrow is another day.

My wife still tries to win the million dollar price in the lottery by investing $2 every other month or so. Same thing, similar chances of success but cheaper. Hey - and it even might work one day.

Yep, I'm well aquainted with the conversation on the other forum - got banned over the shut-down period, so I won't be back

 If you bought in 12 months ago($1.50), or even added more during the cap raise ($1.35), you would be feeling pretty sick right now.But if you are a holder, as I am, from not much more than two years ago (15c) even at current levels, you've done all right by sticking with PEB,through good times and bad.

The medical sector is glacial-slow to change practices or even adopt a new but better product using existing technology. 2 decades ago today, Fisher & paykel were $1.68 per share and a decade later they had only gone up to $1.94.Not long after that they hit critical mass and the rest is history. Maybe PEB might do the same? That's the nature of this type of stock - it's crystal ball stuff. PEB are now suffering under a bear market like everyone else, so I'll give them a bit more time to come good. If not, I'll take my profits and move on.

[Shareguy]

https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/SC2206/S00046/nz-must-start-recognising-biotech-for-the-future-economy.htm

[Left Field]

Hmm ... does this look like an inflection point to you?

It's not what I think..... the quote is attributed to CEO Dr Peter Meintjes.

The CEO is the one calling the shots and I wish him well. Too early for any judgement IMHO.

[BlackPeter]

Hmm ... does this look like an inflection point to you?

It's not what I think..... the quote is attributed to CEO Dr Peter Meintjes.

The CEO is the one calling the shots and I wish him well. Too early for any judgement IMHO.

I know that this is what the CEO said.

Worthwhile noting - CEO's are not always right ... and particularly CEO's of this specific company have a long record of creating hopes without delivering the goods. The odds are againts him being right this time :p ;

Re the chart - I didn't ask what you think, but what it looks like to you - different things.

Anyway - all good fun as long as you are either out or a short term trader who knows what they are doing ...

[Basil]

How many times have they raised capital with promises that success is just around the corner, anyone know ? (please forgive me I have lost count).